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Methodology for Long-Term Water Supply Planning : Mexico City Case

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Methodology for Long-Term Water Supply Planning : Mexico City Case Methodology for long-term water supply planning : Mexico City case Item Type Dissertation-Reproduction (electronic); text Authors Aguilar-Maldonado, Alexis Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 26/09/2021 05:30:20 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191050 METHODOLOGY FOR LONG-TERM WATER SUPPLY PLANNING: MEXICO CITY CASE by Alexis Aguilar-Maldonado A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of the DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY WITH A MAJOR IN WATER RESOURCES ADMINISTRATION In the Graduate College THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 1979 THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA GRADUATE COLLEGE I hereby recommend that this dissertation prepared under my direction by Alexis Aguilar-Maldonado entitled Methodology for Long-Term Water Supply Planning: Mexico City Case be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy As members of the Final Examination Committee, we certify that we have read this dissertation and agree that it may be presented for final defense. Sh0/7 Date ,57/// 7 7 Date Date Date Date Final approval and acceptance of this dissertation is contingent on the candidate's adequate performance and defense thereof at the final oral examination. 11/78 STATEMENT BY AUTHOR This dissertation has been submitted in partial fulfillment of requirements for an advanced degree at The University of Arizona and is deposited in the University Library to be made available to borrowers under rules of the Library. Brief quotations from this dissertation are allowable without special permission, provided that accurate acknowledgment of source is made. Requests for permission for extended quotation from or reproduc- tion of this manuscript in whole or in part may be granted by the head of the major department or the Dean of the Graduate College when in his judgment the proposed use of the material is in the interests of scholarship. In all other instances, however, permission must be obtained from the author. SIGNED: Aleox(S (Nor---1o(dokiac60, To my wife, Dora, I dedicate this work in deepest gratitude for her continuing encouragement that helped to make it a reality. 111 PREFACE The material contained in this dissertation is a part of the report Master Plan for Mexico City Water Supply prepared by the author for the Comisi6n de Aguas del Valle de México under contract CAVM-76-181 between Ingenieria y Procesamiento Electronico, S.A. (IPESA), and the aforementioned commission. The author wishes to thank the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACyT) for their financial assistance during academic year 1972-1973, and Ingenieria y Procesamiento ElectrOnico, S.A. (IPESA), for their financial support since he began his endeavors toward a doctoral degree. To Dr. Daniel D. Evans, his dissertation director, Dr. Donald R. Davis, and other committee members, the author is particularly indebted for stimulating his interests in the field of Water Resources Administration. Heartfelt gratitude is extended to the author's family and his wife's for their constant encouragement and support during his graduate work at The University of Arizona. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS ABSTRACT xiii 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Water Supply Problems of Mexico City 2 1.2 Development of Water Supply and Historical Background . 3 1.3 Objectives and Development Plan 7 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 8 3. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY 12 3.1 The Problem 12 3.2 The Methodology 15 3.3 Optimization Model I 24 3.4 Optimization Model II 29 4. DEVELOPMENT LEVELS IN THE CUTZAMALA RIVER BASIN 36 4.1 Objective 36 4.2 The Cutzamala River Basin 36 4.2.1 General Description 36 4.3 Development of the Cutzamala Basin for Water Supply . 37 4.3.1 Hydrologic Analysis 37 4.3.2 Alternative Configurations of Development in the Cutzamala Basin 56 4.3.3 Cost Functions for Each Development Site and Aqueduct Reach 56 4.3.4 Development of Cutzamala Basin 67 5. LONG-TERM WATER SUPPLY PLANNING FOR MEXICO CITY METROPOLITAN AREA 86 5.1 General 86 5.2 Mexico City Sources of Water 89 5.2.1 The Cutzamala River Basin 89 5.2.2 The Tecolutla River Basin 93 vi TABLE OF CONTENTS--Continued Page 5.2.3 The Amacuzac River Basin 101 5.2.4 The Oriental Groundwater Basin 112 5.3 Optimal Long-Term Water Supply Plan 112 6. CONCLUSIONS 128 APPENDIX A: SYNTHETIC GENERATION OF RUNOFF RECORDS IN UNGAGED STREAMS 131 LIST OF REFERENCES 136 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 3.1 Tableau for Selecting the Most Recommendable Configuration for a Basin's Development Level 23 4.1 Characteristics of the Miguel Alema'n Hydroelectric System 39 4.2 Future Irrigation Water Demands in the Cutzamala River Basin 39 4.3 Main Characteristics of Existing Storage and Diversion Dams 41 4.4 Available Hydrologic Data 42 4.5 Results of the 18-Year (Monthly) Simulation Analysis for the System Tuxpan-Bosque-Colorines-Valle de Bravo- Villa Victoria 46 4.6 Results of the Simulation Analysis of the System Tuxpan- Bosque-Colorines-Valle de Bravo-Villa Victoria, Considering the Merging of Cutzamala's Water with Lerma's Water 48 4.7 Yields of the Sites of Development Considered in Each Configuration 64 4.8 Tabular Form of Presentation of Results of Optimization Model I for Each Configuration 72 4.9 Sites To Be Developed and the Amount of Water that Each One Will Supply for Several Levels of Development under Configuration I 74 4.10 Sites To Be Developed and the Amount of Water that Each One Will Supply for Several Levels of Development under Configuration II 76 4.11 Sites To Be Developed and the Amount of Water that Each Will Supply One for Several Levels of Development under Configuration III 78 vii viii LIST OF TABLES--Continued Table Page 4.12 Sites To Be Developed and the Amount of Water that Each One Will Supply for Several Levels of Development under Configuration IV 79 4.13 Sites To Be Developed and the Amount of Water that Each One Will Supply for Several Levels of Development under Configuration V 80 4.14 Sites To Be Developed and the Amount of Water that Each One Will Supply for Several Levels of Development under Configuration VI 82 4.15 Sites To Be Developed and the Amount of Water that Each One Will Supply for Several Levels of Development under Configuration VII 83 4.16 Comparison of Costs among Configurations for the Levels of Development 84 5.1 Characteristics of the Miguel AlemLi System 91 5.2 Estimated Budget for Cutzamala's First Stage 94 5.3 Composition of Estimated Budgets for Cutzamala's Three Stages 95 5.4 Sites of Development and Their Yields in Cutzamala Basin for Several Levels of Development 96 5.5 Main Characteristics of Cutzamala System 98 5.6 Characteristics of Necaxa Hydroelectric System 100 5.7 Estimated Budget for Tecolutla's First Stage 102 5.8 Composition of Estimated Budgets for Tecolutla's Two Stages 103 5.9 Development Sites and Their Yields in the Tecolutla Basin 104 5.10 Characteristics of the Tecolutla System 106 5.11 Estimated Budget for Amacuzac's First Stage 108 ix LIST OF TABLES--Continued Table Page 5.12 Composition of Estimated Budgets for Amacuzac's Three Stages 109 5.13 Characteristics of the Amacuzac System 110 5.14 Estimated Budget for Oriental's Unique Stage 113 5.15 Characteristics of the Oriental System 114 5.16 Costs of the Basins' Stages To Be Used in Optimization Model II 118 5.17 Optimal Long-Term Water Supply Plan for an Electricity Price of 0.16 Pesos/KWH 119 5.18 Costs of the Basins' Stages To Be Used in Optimization Model II (Energy Price of $0.51/KWH) 122 5.19 Costs of the Basins' Stages To Be Used in Optimization Model II (Energy Price of $0.701KWH) 123 5.20 Optimal Long-Term Water Supply Plan for an Electricity Price of 0.51 Pesos/KWH 124 5.21 Optimal Long-Term Water Supply Plan for an Electricity Price of 0.70 Pesos/KWH 125 5.22 Comparison of Optimal Construction Sequences for Energy Prices of $0.16/KWH, $0.51/KWH, and $0.70/KWH 126 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure Page 1.1 Mexico City Metropolitan Area Population and Forecast 4 1.2 Mexico City Metropolitan Area Water Demand Forecast 5 3.1 Schematic Representation of the Planning Problem . 13 3.2 Flow Chart for Long-Term Water Supply Planning . 16 3.3 Cost Function for a Storage Dam 20 3.4 Conveyance Costs in a Given Development System Configuration 21 3.5 Construction Sequence of Basin's Stages 25 3.6 A Basin's Development Based in Three Sub-Basins . 26 3.7 Scheme of a Configuration for a Water Resources Development 30 3.8 Definition of T(q - q 2 ) 34 4.1 Geographical Location of Cutzamala Basin In pocket 4.2 The Cutzamala Basin In pocket 4.3 Scheme of the Miguel Alemaln. System 38 4.4 Scheme of the East Portion of the Cutzamala Basin 44 4.5 Purungueo I Dam: Function of Water Supply-Storage Capacity 49 4.6 Purungueo II Dam: Function of Water Supply- Storage Capacity 50 4.7 Tuzantla I Dam: Function of Water Supply-Storage Capacity 51 xi LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS--Continued Figure Page 4.8 Tuzantla III Dam: Function of Water Supply- Storage Capacity 52 4.9 Aguila II Dam: Function of Water Supply-Storage Capacity 53 4.10 Cerro Pelon Dam: Function of Water Supply- Storage Capacity 54 4.11 El Gallo Dam: Function of Water Supply-Storage Capacity 55 4.12 Scheme of Configuration I 57 4.13 Scheme of Configuration II 58 4.14 Scheme of Configuration III 59 4.15 Scheme of Configuration IV 60 4.16 Scheme of Configuration V 61 4.17 Scheme of Configuration VI 62 4.18 Scheme of Configuration VII 63 4.19 Tuzantla I Dam Cost Function 68 4.20 Aguila II Dam Cost Function 69 4.21 Aqueduct Tuzantla I-Aguila II Cost Function .
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