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The Challenges of Economic Growth in Norway: Transitioning from the Petroleum Industry to Renewable Energy Industries

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The Challenges of Economic Growth in Norway: Transitioning from the Petroleum Industry to Renewable Energy Industries La Salle International School of Commerce and Digital Economy Final Thesis Graduate in Management of Business and Technology THE CHALLENGES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORWAY: TRANSITIONING FROM THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRIES Student Promoter Kristin Anette Kjuul Eoin Edward Phillips FINAL PROJECT DEFENCE Meeting of the evaluating panel on this day, the student: Kristin Anette Kjuul Presented their final thesis on the following subject: The Challenges of Economic Growth in Norway: Transitioning from the Petroleum Industry to Renewable Energy Industries At the end of the presentation and upon answering the questions of the members of the panel, this thesis was awarded the following grade: Barcelona, MEMBER OF THE PANEL MEMBER OF THE PANEL PRESIDENT OF THE PANEL The Challenges of Economic Growth in Norway: Transitioning from the Petroleum Industry to Renewable Energy Industries By Kristin Anette Kjuul Abstract This thesis attempts to answer the ways in which the transition from the petroleum industry to renewable energy industries may come about while ensuring sustained economic growth. An historical analysis of the relations between the Norwegian petroleum industry, the state, and private industry has been conducted in order to build a model of the most effective interaction between technology, energy companies and economic growth. Review of existing literature has been carried out to explore the current links between the petroleum industry and the renewable energy industry. Primary research, in the form of surveys and interviews was conducted to better elucidate both the challenges and potentials facing Norway in its transition to a greener economy. 1 Table of Contents ABSTRACT 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 1 INTRODUCTION 7 2 RESEARCH QUESTION AND RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 8 2.1 RESEARCH QUESTION 8 2.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 8 3 LITERATURE REVIEW 9 3.1 HISTORY OF THE OIL ADVENTURE 9 3.1.1 THE EARLY YEARS 9 3.1.2 THE SECOND CONCESSION ROUND AND CHANGE OF POLICY 10 3.1.3 THE ROLE OF THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY IN THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY 11 3.2 THE CREATION OF THE SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND 12 3.2.1 PURPOSE OF THE WEALTH FUND 12 3.3 LINKS BETWEEN THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY AND THE RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRY 13 3.3.1 THE NEED TO RESHAPE THE FUTURE 13 3.3.2 INVESTMENTS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY 13 3.4 A NORWEGIAN PARADOX? 15 4 METHODOLOGY 16 4.1 SECONDARY RESEARCH 16 4.2 PRIMARY RESEARCH 16 4.2.1 QUALITATIVE RESEARCH 16 4.2.2 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH 17 4.2.2.1 INTRODUCING THE POPULATION 18 4.3 LIMITATIONS 19 5 RESEARCH FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS 20 5.1 FINDINGS INTERVIEW 20 2 5.1.1 THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN NORWAY 20 5.1.2 THE ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT 20 5.1.3 MOTIVATION FACTORS IN RENEWABLE ENERGIES 20 5.1.4 EQUINOR’S GOAL SETTING IN CLEANER ENERGIES 21 5.1.5 FACILITATING THE TRANSITION 21 5.1.6 FEASIBILITY OF ACTIVELY PHASING OUT THE OIL 22 5.2 INTERVIEW FINDINGS ANALYSIS 23 6.1 SURVEY FINDINGS 24 6.1.1 PENDENCY ON OIL AND GAS 24 6.1.2 FEASIBILITY OF PHASING OUT THE OIL AND GAS 25 6.1.3 EXTRA INPUT 25 6.2 SURVEY FINDINGS ANALYSIS 26 6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH 28 6.1 FUTURE RESEARCH 31 7 REFERENCES 32 8 APPENDIX 35 8.1 APPENDIX A 35 8.2 APPENDIX B 36 8.2.1 TABLES 36 8.2.2 SURVEY 41 8.3 APPENDIX C 43 8.3.1 INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT 43 Word count: 9094 3 Table of Graphs GRAPH 1: Share of GDP 11 GRAPH 2: Share of State Income 11 GRAPH 3: Share of Total Investments 11 GRAPH 4: Share of Total EXport 11 GRAPH 5: Gender 18 GRAPH 6: Age 18 GRAPH 7: Pendency on Oil and Gas 24 GRAPH 8: Feasibility of Phasing out The Oil and Gas 25 4 Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to all those who have been involved in the process of writing this thesis. First and foremost, I would like to express my deepest appreciation to my promotor, Eoin Edward Phillips. The completion of my thesis would not have been possible without his persistent support and guidance. Special thanks to Espen Moe, for partaking in an interview. His insights have been invaluable to my work. I would also like to thank Miguel Sánchez, Dawn Hiscock and Christopher Kennett for guidance throughout this process. Thank you to friends, family and everyone else who have taken time out of their day to answer the survey and to distribute it further. Finally, I would like to thank all the professors at La Salle for four incredible years. A special thanks to Haydar Sinan Hosadam and Brian McGarry for inspiring me in their economy and finance classes and for being outstanding teachers. 5 Executive Summary The aim of this thesis is to explore how the transition from the petroleum industry to renewable energies may come about and how to ensure sustained economic growth in this process. The petroleum industry has plaid a key role in the Norwegian economy. The opportunities provided by the oil has been well seized and have essentially built up Norway with a stable economy and a welfare system that aims to protect and promote economic and social well- being of its citizens. The increased pressure of reduced greenhouse emission has however meant new challenges and opportunities for the petroleum industry. The majority of companies involved in wind energy in Norway are already established companies in the petroleum industry, yet most of these firms report less than 5 percent of total turnover from offshore wind (Afewerki, S et al, 2019). According to a study undertaken by Afewerki exploring the conditions for growth in the Norwegian offshore wind industry, there is a trend of reduced engagement in the wind industry with increased activity in the oil industry. This thesis aims to uncover why that is and how the transition can be accelerated. To explore the opportunities and challenges facing Norway while transitioning away from an oil-based economy, primary research in the form of an interview was conducted with an expert on energy policy, climate policy and international political economy. Findings suggest that the sheer importance of the oil- and gas industry has made it so fundamental to other industries that structural change has proven difficult and it is expected that no real changes will be made until the demand for oil decreases. However, it is expected that said industries will benefit from the renewable energy industry as well. These obstacles also create massive political problems and findings show that there is a need to create incentives that reward low emission activities. This thesis also analyses the attitudes amongst Norwegians towards a transition away from the petroleum industry. Quantitative research has therefore been carried out in order to uncover Norwegians’ perceptions on the importance of the oil industry and their opinions on the matter. Findings suggest that most are open for a transition, so long as it is done in a way that ensures sustained economic growth. Retraining and a rotation of the economy will therefore be necessary to guarantee that jobs are sheltered. At the same time, findings suggest that increased investments in R&D and education in the emerging industry is of essence to accelerate the measures taken towards a greener economy. 6 1 Introduction Despite the political rhetoric, it is now generally agreed amongst businesses and scientists that climate change poses a great threat to the planet and is now affecting every country on every continent (Phil, 2018). Sea levels are rising, weather patterns are changing and becoming more extreme, people’s lives are negatively affected, and national economies are disrupted. Greenhouse gases have reached an unprecedented level, accentuating the irreversible and detrimental effects of human activity on the planet. Global carbon dioxide concentrations amounted to a record of 407.4 parts per million during 2018 (Blunden & Arndt, 2019). These numbers emphasize the necessity of change. To strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, the Paris Agreement of the COP21 was adapted. This agreement is applicable to all countries and went into force in November of 2016, aiming to keep the global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius and to seek exertion to keep it at 1.5 degrees Celsius (United Nations, 2015). As a leading energy nation, Norway must address these issues. Norway has several companies that want to position themselves at the forefront of the development and deployment of green technologies. Most industries have already started the engagement in preparing for green competitiveness, with ambitions to reduce their emissions, increase value creation and secure high levels of employment. Norway has natural advantages and resources, expertise and companies that makes them well positioned to contribute to both meeting future energy needs and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As of today, Norway has the lowest emissions of CO2 per produced entity of oil/gas (NTNU, 2020). Even so, emissions from the Norwegian continental shelf has increased by 78% in the past thirty years and in 2018, petroleum activities on the Norwegian continental shelf accounted for 28% of the total greenhouse gas emissions. Petroleum activities have undeniably played, and still play, a key role in the Norwegian economy and the development and financing of the welfare system. The development and deployment of clean energy technologies must be accelerated to guarantee slowing down the urgent threat of climate change. Nonetheless, being heavily reliant upon certain industries also means that it is inevitable not to take into account economic interests. How Norway should transition itself while nourishing the economy is a widely debated area.
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