Dynamic Product Positioning in Di¤erentiated Product Markets: The E¤ect of Fees for Musical Performance Rights on the Commercial Radio Industry Andrew Sweeting Duke University and NBER July 2012 Abstract This article predicts how radio station formats would change if, as was recently proposed, music stations were made to pay fees for musical performance rights. It does so by estimating and solving, using parametric approximations to …rms’value functions, a dynamic model which captures important features of the industry such as vertical and horizontal product di¤erentia- tion, demographic variation in programming tastes and multi-station ownership. The estimated model predicts that high fees would cause the number of music stations to fall signi…cantly and quite quickly. For example, a fee equal to 10% of revenues would cause a 4.6% drop in the 1 number of music stations within 2 2 years, and a 9.4% drop in the long-run. The size of the change is limited, however, by the fact that many listeners, particularly in demographics that are valued by advertisers, have strong preferences for music programming. Please send comments to
[email protected]. I would like to thank Jerry Hausman, Igal Hendel, Aviv Nevo, Amil Petrin, Ariel Pakes, Rob Porter, Steve Berry, Pat Bayer, Peter Arcidiacono, Kate Ho, Allan Collard-Wexler, Paul Ellickson, Arie Beresteanu, three referees and seminar participants for valuable comments. I would like to thank the National Association of Broadcasters and the Center for the Study of Industrial Organization at Northwestern University for …nancial support. All errors are my own. 1 1 Introduction This article develops and estimates a dynamic oligopoly model to predict the e¤ect on product variety of legislation (the Performance Rights Act1), introduced into Congress in 2009 with the support of the Obama Administration and members of both parties, requiring music radio stations to pay fees for musical performance rights.