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Reporter NATIONAL BUREAU of ECONOMIC RESEARCH NBER Reporter NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH A quarterly summary of NBER research No. 4, December 2017 Program Report ALSO IN THIS ISSUE Employment Changes for Cognitive Occupations, 2000–2012 Industrial Organization Percentage change in STEM and other managerial or professional occupations -20 0 20 40 60 * Teachers (K-12) Liran Einav and Jonathan Levin Managers (All) Nurses Health Technicians Health Therapists Comp. Sci./Programming/Tech. Support Accounting And Finance Economists & Survey Researchers Social Workers, Counselors & Clergy Physicians College Instructors Researchers in the Program on Industrial Organization (IO) study Lawyers and Judges Other Business Support consumer and firm behavior, competition, innovation, and govern- Operations Researchers Physicians' Assistants Medical Scientists ment regulation. This report begins with a brief summary of general Legal Assistants and Paralegals Pharmacists developments in the last three decades in the range and focus of pro- Dental Hygienists Mathematicians/Statisticians/Actuaries gram members’ research, then discusses specific examples of recent Dentists Social Scientists And Urban Planners Artists, Entertainers, and Athletes work. Marketing, Advertising and PR Pilots/Air Traic Control When the program was launched in the early 1990s, two devel- Biological Scientists Physical Scientists Architects opments had profoundly shaped IO research. One was development Writers, Editors, and Reporters Engineering And Science Technicians of game-theoretic models of strategic behavior by firms with market Draers And Surveyors 1 Engineers (All) power, summarized in Jean Tirole’s classic textbook. The initial wave -20 0 20 40 60 of research in this vein was focused on applying new insights from eco- Source: D. Deming, NBER Working Paper No. 21473 nomic theory; empirical applications came later. Then came develop- ment of econometric methods to estimate demand and supply param- eters in imperfectly competitive markets. Founding program members The Value of Soft Skills in the Labor Market 7 including Timothy Bresnahan,2 Ariel Pakes,3 and Robert Porter 4 played a key role in advancing this work. International Linkages and the Business Cycle: Underlying both approaches was the idea that individual indus- Lessons from Micro for Macro 12 tries are sufficiently distinct and industry details sufficiently important that one needs to focus on specific markets and industries in order to New Evidence on Impacts of Birth Order 15 test specific hypotheses about consumer or firm behavior, or to esti- Trends in Factor Shares: mate models that could be used for counterfactual analysis, such as Facts and Implications 19 analysis of a merger or regulatory change. The econometric develop- ments in the field, which emphasized structural modeling of demand NBER News 23 and supply, ran somewhat counter to the trend in other fields toward Conferences 24 the search for natural experiments to illuminate the causal effects of policy changes. Program and Working Group Meetings 27 NBER Books 42 * Liran Einav is Professor of Economics at Stanford University and has been director of the NBER Program on Industrial Organization since 2016. Jonathan Levin, the Philip H. Knight Professor and dean of the Stanford Graduate School of Business, served as program director from 2014 to 2016. Reporter Online at: www.nber.org/reporter examples to underscore the broaden- There were, to be sure, some points of Cross-Listing of NBER’s IO Program Working Papers, 1991–2017 ing spectrum of industries and topics NBER Reporter overlap with neighboring fields. A notable addressed by program members and the example was the role that industrial orga- Percentage of IO program papers cross-listed with other NBER programs variety of approaches and tools being nization economists played in the activi- 40 used to study competition and markets. ties of the NBER’s Program on Productivity, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship These examples are not meant to be a The National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit research orga- Innovation, and Entrepreneurship (PRIE), summary of the much broader scope nization founded in 1920 and devoted to objective quantitative analysis of the 30 American economy. Its officers and board of directors are: where the research agenda embraced the esti- of research by program affiliates. All of President and Chief Executive Officer — James M. Poterba mation of plant-level costs and productiv- the recent working papers by program Controller — Kelly Horak ity and the effects of firm and market char- Public Economics affiliates may be found at www.nber. Corporate Secretary — Alterra Milone acteristics on R&D spending and the rate of 20 org/papersbyprog/IO.html This body BOARD OF DIRECTORS innovation. Environment and Energy of research includes large swaths of Health Care Chairman — Karen N. Horn In the last decade, the scope of program work on trade, media, political econ- Vice Chairman — John Lipsky members’ research has broadened to encom- 10 omy, and energy, as well as traditional Treasurer — Robert Mednick pass more industries and new topics. While Labor Studies competition policy, innovation, and DIRECTORS AT LARGE studies of traditional manufacturing, service, regulation topics. Peter Aldrich Mohamed El-Erian Laurence H. Meyer and retail settings remain an important focus, 0 Elizabeth E. Bailey Jacob A. Frenkel Michael H. Moskow there has been a rapid growth of research 1991–2000 2000–04 2005–08 2009–11 2012–14 2015–17 Competition in John H. Biggs Judith M. Gueron Alicia H. Munnell on sectors such as health care,5 education,6 Health Insurance Markets John S. Clarkeson Robert S. Hamada Robert T. Parry 7 8 Kathleen B. Cooper Peter Blair Henry James M. Poterba financial markets, and the media. Source: Authors’ calculations Charles H. Dallara Karen N. Horn John S. Reed The U.S. health care system George C. Eads Lisa Jordan Marina v. N. Whitman Expanding the Scope of Research Figure 1 increasingly revolves around regulated Jessica P. Einhorn John Lipsky Martin B. Zimmerman health care markets. Today, 11 million A nice way to illustrate the increase in the forces have contributed to this new changes have grown out of changes Americans are enrolled in health plans DIRECTORS BY UNIVERSITY APPOINTMENT breadth of IO research is to examine the rate pattern, which in keeping with the pro- in U.S. regulatory structure which, through Affordable Care Act (ACA) Timothy Bresnahan, Stanford Benjamin Hermalin, California, Berkeley at which IO program members cross-list their gram’s emphasis one may label as supply starting in the 1980s, prioritized pri- exchanges, 17 million in Medicare Pierre-André Chiappori, Columbia George Mailath, Pennsylvania papers with other NBER programs. We ana- and demand. vate sector competition as the favored Advantage plans, 55 million in man- Alan V. Deardorff, Michigan Marjorie B. McElroy, Duke Ray C. Fair, Yale Joel Mokyr, Northwestern lyzed all NBER working papers since 1990 on On the supply side, econometric approach to improve efficiency and aged Medicaid plans, and 41 million Edward Foster, Minnesota Cecilia Elena Rouse, Princeton which at least one author was an IO program methods for studying imperfect com- foster innovation. At the same time, in Medicare Part D plans. In each case, John P. Gould, Chicago Richard L. Schmalensee, MIT affiliate, then computed the share of these pletion have matured: From initial “test there has been an increasing apprecia- private insurers compete under market Mark Grinblatt, California, Los Angeles Ing o Wa l t er, New York University Bruce Hansen, Wisconsin-Madison David B. Yoffie, Harvard papers that were cross-listed with another cases” using retail scanner data to esti- tion of the importance of market power rules that regulate contract features, program. We considered only programs in mate demand and supply for consumer in a wide range of industries, such as pricing, and risk adjustment. Larger DIRECTORS BY APPOINTMENT OF OTHER ORGANIZATIONS which at least 5 percent of the papers by IO products such as breakfast cereal and health care, financial services, retail- employers frequently also sponsor Jean-Paul Chavas, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association researchers were cross-listed. other grocery items, these methods ing, and media. Indeed, these changes health plan choice, again creating an Martin Gruber, American Finance Association Figure 1 plots our findings. It shows an increasingly are applied to more com- continue to be some of the most signif- environment of managed competition. Philip Hoffman, Economic History Association Arthur Kennickell, American Statistical Association interesting evolution of cross-listing behav- plex products such as health insur- icant in the U.S. economy, suggesting These developments raise important Jack Kleinhenz, National Association for Business Economics ior in the last 15 years. While productiv- ance, primary schooling, consumer bright prospects for the relevance and questions about market power, market Robert Mednick, American Institute of Certified Public Accountants ity remains a nontrivial focus of work in IO, loans, media consumption, and finan- importance of industrial organization design, and asymmetric information. Peter L. Rousseau, American Economic Association Gregor W. Smith, Canadian Economics Association there has been a remarkable increase in the cial products. The explosion of avail- research in coming years. Competition has been a central William Spriggs,
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