U.S. Consumer Goods: the Case for Putting Analytics at the Core

• Cognizant Reports

U.S. Consumer Goods: The Case for Putting Analytics at the Core

Executive Summary Meanwhile, the recession introduced impor- In the ever-evolving digital era, companies are tant changes in consumer behavior. Consumers inundated by unprecedented amounts of data are now more careful about selecting products — generated internally, as well as externally. that deliver maximum value for the money, and Importantly, organizations have come to realize green goods are gaining in popularity across age that this data holds the key to solving many groups, with the millennial generation2 leading problems inside their four walls, and beyond. the way. Consumers have begun relying on their This understanding, coupled with advancements smartphones and mobile access to the Web and in analytics technology, is pushing companies social networks to help them research product to derive insights from raw data and boost attributes and prices. Social media’s growing decision-making across their organizations influence on consumer buying behavior is forcing in ways that drive business performance and companies to venture into the terrain of integrat- competitive advantage. As the U.S. economy ing social and traditional channels. Companies struggles out of the recession, consumer goods are also realizing they need to innovate to remain (CG) industry players are under increasing competitive. pressure to extract further efficiencies. Factors such as rising input costs have The rise in social and mobile technologies has significantly affected margins, and for a variety also caused an explosion of data, which if prop- of reasons, CG companies have not raised prices erly leveraged can help CG companies understand to fully compensate for these increased costs.1 consumer behavior and drive innovation, as well as guide companies to begin strategically thinking The recession was officially declared over in about extracting much-needed efficiencies from June 2009 by the National Bureau of Economic operations and alleviating margin pressures. For Research, but this pronouncement was not starters, companies need to build an infrastruc- accompanied by improved market conditions ture for collecting and analyzing the huge data for CG players. Despite consumption exceeding volumes generated by social and mobile sources pre-recession levels during 2011, high unemploy- and creating a single version of the truth across ment and repeated aftershocks have conspired various departments that spans structured and to create anxiety over the future. unstructured formats.

cognizant reports | february 2012 Going forward, we believe CG players will benefit by The value of shipments has increased over the putting analytics at the core of their endeavors to: past year (see Figure 2, next page), but long-term profitability remains a concern. • Engage with customers at the right place and time to enhance brand awareness. Confronted with this scenario, CG manufacturers • Identify niches that can be targeted with have taken to emerging markets in their search specific products. for growth and are focusing on creating efficien- • Innovate to meet evolving consumer needs. cies to combat margin pressures.3 In domestic and • Use data to identify areas of inefficiencies foreign markets alike, manufacturers are seeking and improve performance. insights into customer behavior to understand • Harness the power of cloud computing to their evolving needs. There is also a concerted enhance internal analytics capabilities. effort to create efficiencies in the supply chain. CG companies have caught onto the idea of big data supply chains capturing insights from across Economic Forces the organization to reduce latency and optimize Weak economic growth presents the biggest inventory. challenge for CG manufacturers. Even as the heavily medicated economy struggles to get back on its feet, new shocks, such as renewed fears of Customer Behavior Shifts a double-dip recession, have spread a cloud of One of the notable impacts of the U.S. financial doubt over future growth. crisis was the dramatic shift in consumer buying behavior. The household savings rate has trended Persistently high unemployment, combined up over the past few years and is expected with wage gains that have remained below the to reach 10%, according to some estimates. inflation rate, have negatively impacted con- The recession forced consumers to look sumer spending. Growing commodity prices have for more value and purchase lower priced added to manufacturers’ woes (see Figure 1). products. However, despite overall consumer Importantly, industry players have found it expenditure returning to pre-recession levels, the increasingly difficult to pass on these price demand for value has remained. Daily spending, increases to consumers. According to McKinsey as reported by consumers, remains below 2008 & Co., commodity prices increased by 40% levels (see Figure 3, page 4). between 2002 and 2007, but manufacturers passed on only 15% of this to consumers, result- Adjusting to this change is of prime importance ing in a 75% contraction in the sector’s margins. to CG companies. Not surprisingly, responding

Rising Commodity Prices CG manufacturers have not raised consumer prices to fully compensate for higher costs. 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0

Percentage Growth in Prices 0.5 0.0 Q4 2001 Q4 2002 Q4 2003 Q4 2004 Q4 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

Fuel oil, per gallon Milk, per gallon Eggs, per dozen Ground chuck, per pound

Source: “2011 Financial Performance Report,” Grocery Manufacturers Association and PricewaterhouseCoopers Figure 1

cognizant reports 2 to this situation ranks high on the agenda of innovate their way out of this sticky situation CG CEOs, including the need to develop products (see Figure 4, next page). that consistently deliver value at lower prices. Such a situation is bound to put further pressure The ever-increasing volumes of data, gener- on margins. ated internally and from external sources, has emerged as an important driver toward this goal. Meanwhile, millennials are taking a whole new More than ever, CG companies are looking at the approach to the way they search, compare and data generated on a daily basis in the supply buy products. These young consumers use tech- chain and at the retailer’s end to flesh out useful nology to meet their need for buying the most insights. suitable products. They are tech-savvy, active on social networks and likely to keep their options CG companies have always strived to under- open as far as brand loyalty is concerned. The stand customer needs. As the digital shopping mobile phone has played a catalytic role in the era evolves, they are working even harder to rise of this tech-savvy consumption behavior. gain new insights into what customers want by Growing adoption of smartphones, coupled with engaging with them everywhere, such as at the increased use of the Internet on these devices, point-of-sale in the physical and virtual worlds. has meant that information critical to shopping is Working closely with retailers is essential available on demand. No wonder holiday season to achieving these insights, and it also helps sales through mobile devices more than doubled create efficiencies across several areas. in 2011 over the previous year.4 Adoption of downstream data reporting, supported by technologies such as demand For CG companies, this is a critical development. signal repositories (DSRs), has increased over Future growth will depend, to a great extent, on the years as retailers have begun to realize the how well they exploit the customer engagement benefits of sharing data with suppliers. For opportunities that accompany the rise of these suppliers, the ability to better forecast demand new channels. means they can adapt their procurement strategies accordingly.

Leveraging Data Mobile devices such as tablets are gaining The problem of creating efficiencies in a traction within CG companies, many of whom troubled economy while meeting evolving believe mobility boosts productivity across consumer demands has no single solution. the spectrum of their operations. Access to CG companies are realizing they will have to consolidated data on the move saves time and

Monthly Value of Shipments in CG Industry Shipment values are steadily increasing for CG manufacturers. 130

125

120

115

110 Millions of dollars 105

100 Mar-11 Mar-10 Sep-1 0 Dec-1 0 Jun-1 0 Dec-07 Mar-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Jun-08

Source: “2011 Financial Performance Report,” Grocery Manufacturers Association, PwC Figure 2

cognizant reports 3 U.S. Consumer Spending Self-reported daily spending is rising but not to pre-recession levels.

$120 $114 $110

$90 $89 $81 $76 $75 $74 $70 $72 $72 $65 $59 Monthly average $58 $59 $59 $50

$30 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012

Monthly average

Based on Gallup Daily tracking of the amount Americans say they spent the day before at stores, restaurants, gas stations and online, excluding the purchase of cars and homes, and payments on normal household bills. Source: Gallup Figure 3

enables faster decision-making on the manufac- Where Improved Analytics Can Help turing floor and in the field. A booming market There is data, and then there is data that improves for applications that boost productivity is also decision-making. The latter results from filtering playing its part. key bits of information to derive insights, using advanced analytics. This is what CG manufac- Companies that have taken a lead in this area turers are striving to achieve. Analytics is by no are planning for the long term and are putting means new to the industry, but the breadth of in place the necessary infrastructure, which its application is widening, driven mainly by the includes the ability to capture a single version of increased availability of data on everything from the truth, analyze it and share insights across the supply chains, to customers (see Figure 5, next organization. page). Companies are improving supply chains,

Innovation High on the CEO Agenda Q: To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding your company’s innovation over the next three years?

Agree Strongly 33 25 20 6 Our innovation will lead to significant new revenue opportunities. Our innovation will lead to operational Agree efficiencies that provide us with a 52 46 50 33 competitive advantage. An important part of our innovation strategy is to develop products or services Disagree 37 11 22 that are environmentally-friendly. We expect the majority of our innovations to be co-developed with partners outside our organization. Disagree Strongly 353 18

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Respondent base: 1,201 chief executives in 69 countries (153 CG companies) Note: ‘Neither agree nor disagree’ and ‘Don’t know/refused’ excluded. Source: “14th Annual Global CEO Survey 2011," PwC Figure 4

cognizant reports 4 Drivers for Increased Use of Analytics Tools

Area Drivers Implications Analytics Opportunities Weak economic The need for increased Employ data analytics to growth efficiencies. extract efficiencies from operations and enhance Unemployment High unemployment levels, Economic and decision-making by leading to decreased spending. demographic predicting future scenarios. factors Stagnant population Changing behavior and needs Create products to suit this growth; aging of baby boomer generation. age group. population Input cost inflation Rising energy costs Adverse impact on margins; Employ analytics in areas and commodity increased focus on cost-cutting. such as supply chain and prices inventory management to identify performance enhancement opportunities. Shifting consumer An evolving Increasingly frugal consumers Generate insights through preferences customer who “want more for less“ consumer behavior analytics and the need for companies to track behavior patterns and to innovate to meet evolving understand consumer needs. needs. Technology Data sharing in The need for manufacturers Generate better analytic results the supply chain to consolidate data across the through technologies such as organization and fully utilize master data management. the data generated from the supply chain. Marketing Proliferation of Increased popularity of Discover important information new media channels such as the mobile about consumer preferences Web and social media with that can aid product promotion consumers, leading companies and customer feedback, using to rethink their promotional tools such as social media strategies. analytics. Sustainability A key area of focus The move toward Deploy analytics tools to for the future environmentally support product innovation. friendly products.

Source: Cognizant Research Center Figure 5 customer loyalty and sustainability programs by carefully crafted to get people talking about analyzing large pools of data to derive patterns, upcoming products. identify trends and gain insights to drive strategic decisions across the organization. The rules of customer engagement have changed with the rise of digital media. Today’s multichan- Playing to the New Rules of Customer nel customer spends a good deal of time on the Engagement Internet, and not just using a wired connection. An increasingly complex business environment The mobile Internet, accessed via tablet devices has rendered many of the industry’s historical and smartphones, has increased significantly practices obsolete. Take advertising, for example. just in the last two years. Shoppers accessing An ad campaign on television, newspapers and the Internet through wireless means increased outdoor billboards was once considered to be 51% in 2010, according to a survey by the Pew enough to generate customer interest. Today, Research Center. These customers are looking for however, new channels to reach customers value, and they know their options are not limited need to be integrated into the overall marketing to one or two stores, either physical or online. and promotional strategic mix. For instance, a television ad campaign could be preceded by Multichannel communication is, therefore, a social media campaign on Facebook that is the new normal for spreading brand messages.

cognizant reports 5 This calls not only for an integrated media feedback from social media users and created strategy but also one that strives to create a personalized videos in response. These videos consistent experience for consumers as they were such a big hit with viewers that as many as navigate these channels. Not surprisingly, 187 of them were made. By the time the campaign companies are realigning their promotional was finished, it had surpassed 16 million views, strategies accordingly, as they work to reach exceeding President Barack Obama’s election customers along the path to purchase — from victory speech.5 The media research agency online searches, to in-store ads, coupons and Nielsen reported in July 2010 that Old Spice apps. Also known as shopper marketing, this area body wash sales rose 55% for the previous is expected to witness increased spending by three months and a whopping 107% over the CG companies (see Figure 6). previous month.

Perhaps the biggest game changer is social With increasingly complex and fragmented media. Companies have struggled to master media, companies need to make effective, this medium, with more and more jumping on fact-based decisions, and this is where the digital the social bandwagon, starting from a simple age opportunity lies. There is no dearth of data — Facebook fan page and growing to a full-blown companies generate huge amounts of customer social media strategy. Analytics tools are key to data on a daily basis that go beyond purchase the success of these efforts. Customers use social transactions, into areas such as perceptions media to express their thoughts about products of products and services. The trick is to distill and services they have used, and sentiment key insights from this data using advanced ana- analysis tools allow companies to analyze this lytics. Today’s analytics tools allow companies data to know what customers are thinking about to track everything from channel performance their products. Similarly, these tools can be used to customer behavior. Product performance can to measure the response to a new product or be tracked dynamically, to identify potentially service the company is planning to launch. successful brands that can be promoted through advertisements and deals. Some companies have used this media very intelligently. An example is the campaign for Product Innovation the new body wash from Old Spice, a brand At a time when customer preferences are owned by Procter & Gamble, that combined radically changing, the need for innovation is Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. Starting off hyper-critical. Even as tough economic conditions with simple advertisements starring the former push customers to seek value in all purchases, NFL player Isaiah Mustafa, the campaign sought concerns over the environmental and health

Expected Growth in Advertising and Promotions Mix CG companies will increasingly turn to “shopper marketing” to gain visibility along the purchase path.

Shopper Marketing 55 28

Digital Media -3 36 40

Consumer Promotions -3 -10 3 28 Average annual increase or decrease over the next three years: Increase >5% Traditional Media -13 -18 9 16 Increase 0-5% Decrease 0-5% Trade Promotions -7 -24 10 Decrease >5

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent of respondents Source: “Shopper Marketing 4.0: Building Scalable Playbooks That Drive Results," Grocery Manufacturers Association and

Booz & Co., 2010. Figure 6

cognizant reports 6 impacts of products are emerging; meanwhile, For example, analyzing the purchasing behavior CG companies are sourcing products globally of customers according to age, income levels (which adds complexity to product safety require- and preferences can help companies identify ments) and are struggling to meet green and sus- how trends are evolving. This will provide clarity tainability mandates (whether internally driven around which products and pricing models would or enforced through regulations). According to result in a winning strategy. a survey by NBCUniversal,6 68% of respondents said it was worth paying more for green goods. Creating Efficiencies At a time when margins are under pressure, com- The food and beverages sector, for instance, panies are bound to look inward for opportunities is dealing with rising health consciousness to cut costs. CG companies are identifying areas and increased need for convenience foods. where processes can be improved. The plethora Carbonated drinks sales have declined steadily of internal data about many business processes over the past few years as consumers move holds the key to creating efficiencies. These toward non-carbonated health drinks, which insights can be drawn by applying analytics tools grew at 7% in 2010.7 Consumers also want pre- to the data collected from various departments to packaged foods that offer greater nutrition and identify anomalies in internal operations that can higher quality. With population growth in the then be rectified. developed world expected to remain slow, manu- facturers will have to differentiate in order to stay Today’s globally aligned business models ahead, and product innovation will be key to this. introduce complexities that need to be dealt with on a dynamic basis. Companies that have not Understanding the different segments of custom- updated their business models risk losing ground ers will be useful for companies. For example, rapidly. Traditional supply chain architectures, the aging baby boomer generation’s preferences for example, need a complete overhaul. Much of have changed. Companies can identify these the inefficiencies stem from the fact that data changes and create products accordingly. Such remains stored in silos, and spreadsheets are efforts could mean getting closely involved with pervasive. Overhauling data architectures customers or partners to drive innovation. Data across the organization will enable operational analytics will be important to drive decisions in efficiencies to be derived. this scenario. Analytics tools can also help predict the performance of products based on past data Improved Sustainability Initiatives combined with “what if“ scenarios, thus helping Sustainability has moved to the top of the companies choose the best possible alternatives. corporate agenda across industries over

Drivers for Sustainability Initiatives CG companies name branding as a top reason for pursuing sustainability programs. Brand Costs Regulation Customers Risk Competition Product differentiation Profitability Shareholders/Investors Employees Other All Consumer markets Don't know 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Percentage of respondents Response base: 378 senior executives from North America, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Latin America Source: "Corporate Sustainability: A Progress Report," KPMG, March 2011. Figure 7

cognizant reports 7 the past few years, and consumer goods CG companies will need systems that enable companies are no different.8 Regulations and accurate and near-real-time reporting of this customer awareness have played a vital part in data, as well as analytics tools that can turn this. However, the top driver across industries raw data into insights to continuously improve is the desire to promote brand awareness (see progress made against sustainability goals Figure 7, previous page). Companies are look- through better decision-making. ing to cut resource usage wherever possible. For example, several CG manufacturers have reduced their consumption of water in manufacturing. Data Management and Other As this trend evolves, sustainability reporting is Challenges growing in importance to stakeholders; in fact, Data management is central to any successful in a KPMG survey, the number of companies analytics implementation. Employing real-time producing such reports increased from just analytics involves collecting the right data — that 6% in 2000 to 36% in 2010, with an additional is, data that is relevant in a given context. Data 22% planning to produce reports in two years.9 management across the CG value chain, however, remains plagued by age-old architectures, siloed Sustainability initiatives are also seen as a source storage and manual intervention. Old approaches for innovation and efficiencies. Companies that like the use of spreadsheets to hold business- have taken the lead here assign high importance critical data hinder data sharing between depart- to sustainability reporting based on what they ments; instead, a single version of the truth needs want to improve within their internal processes. to be created to inform decision-making. Yet, the quality and quantity of sustainability data reported varies highly across consumer market Similar efforts are being made to collaborate with sectors. retailers on using downstream data, although there is no enterprise-wide approach to collect, For sustainability initiatives to deliver value, it is share and analyze this data (see Figure 8). As important that proper metrics are instituted to a result, different departments pursue their own measure and analyze the results. In this regard, connections with retailers to generate data. adhering to industry benchmarks and reporting There even seems to be little consensus between standards will be helpful, although such standards departments over the responsibility for a are largely a work in progress. As metrics emerge, downstream data initiative, as a 2010 study by

The State of Data Management

Q: How standardized is the approach you are taking to downstream data management?

Looking at a corporate strategy, 34% but do not have one in place yet

No corporate-level strategy; each customer team decides on the 29% approach they take

Made a decision on a corporate strategy and currently 22% implementing it across team

The same tool is in place across 15% all teams today

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Response base: More than 100 midsize CG suppliers and retailers Source: “Retailer/Supplier Shared Data Study 2010," CGT and RIS News, 2010. Figure 8

cognizant reports 8 CGT/RIS10 found. While 82% of respondents analytics competency have a better chance of believed it was a sales initiative, 77% said it success. was a supply chain initiative. This dichotomy could result in data inconsistencies between Access to an analytics talent pool and a departments, which in turn will negatively cost-effective delivery model is an equally impact decisions made down the road. important requirement, and consumer goods companies should consider associating with Overcoming this hurdle is, therefore, crucial for partners that can provide these capabilities. companies, and the decisions that drive the move Advances in cloud computing have created toward a single version of the truth must be opportunities to reduce hardware, software made by organizational leadership. Departmental and talent-related costs through business buy-in needs to be generated to share crucial process as a service12 (BPaaS). BPaaS helps save data. This will most certainly involve a dramatic critical Cap-Ex by leveraging cloud computing, cultural shift, which makes the role of leaders with its consumption-based fee structure and even more important. hosted computing model. It is our view that companies that benefit from this scenario will do the following: Analytics as a Service Creating a culture of decision-making based • Create a data management infrastructure that on insights drawn from data shared across the integrates existing data silos. organization will not be an easy task. But given • Develop a single version of the truth to drive the ever-growing complexity of the business improved organization-wide decision-making. environment, this transformation to a data- • Design a strategy to harness the potential of driven culture is essential, and the benefits big data to drive efficiencies and innovation. will be worth the effort. Companies that see • Partner with vendors that can help cut themselves as highly competitive tend to have Cap-Ex by providing a complete solution that a higher analytics orientation than their peers.11 encompasses analytics technology and talent Organizations that empower themselves with an aspects.

Footnotes 1 Richard Benson-Armer, Peter Czerepak, Tim Koller, “The Commodity Crunch in Consumer Packaged Goods,“ McKinsey Quarterly, December 2010, https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/The_commodity_ crunch_in_consumer_packaged_goods_2719.

2 The Pew Research Center defines millennials as the generation that was born after 1980 — the first generation to come of age in the new millennium.

3 “Growth Reimagined: Prospects in Emerging Markets Drive CEO Confidence,“ Pricewaterhouse Coopers, 2011, http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/pdf/14th-annual-global-ceo-survey.pdf.

4 “Mobile Shopping Doubles over December 2011 Holiday,“ IBM, January 2012, http://www-03.ibm.com/ press/us/en/pressrelease/36472.wss.

5 Samuel Axon, “Old Spice Sales Double With YouTube Campaign,“ Mashable.com, July 27, 2010, http://mashable.com/2010/07/27/old-spice-sales.

6 “Green in the Economy II,“ NBC Universal, 2011.

7 Alan Rappeport, “Emerging Markets Boost Pepsi Sales,“ Financial Times, April 28, 2011.

8 “Beyond Green: The Triple Play of Sustainability,“ Cognizant Technology Solutions, March 2011.

9 “Measuring Up: Improving Sustainability in Consumer Markets,“ KPMG, June 2011.

cognizant reports 9 10 “Retailer/Supplier Shared Data Study 2010,“ Consumer Goods Technology/Retail Information Systems News, September 2010.

11 “Advanced Business Analytics Enable Better Decisions in Banking,“ IDC, November 2010.

12 BPaaS refers to the provision of business services encompassing underlying IT infrastructure, platform and skilled manpower, to run specific business processes in a virtual, globalized and distributed operating model.

References Shobhana Chandra, “Consumer Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Falls for First Time in Two Years,“ Bloomberg, Aug. 2, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/consumer-spending-in-u-s- unexpectedly-falls-for-first-time-in-two-years.html.

Robert Higgs, “One More Time: Consumption Spending HAS Already Recovered,“ The Beacon, The Independent Institute, Sept. 9, 2011, http://blog.independent.org/2011/09/09/one-more-time- consumption-spending-has-already-recovered.

Aaron Smith, “Mobile Access 2010,“ Pew Research Center, July 7, 2010, http://www.pewinternet.org/ Reports/2010/Mobile-Access-2010.aspx.

Steffen Lauster, Elisabeth Hartley, Samrat Sharma, “Consumer Packaged Goods: Escaping the Consolidation Mentality,“ strategy+business, June 6, 2011, http://www.strategy-business.com/ article/00081?gko=8b1c2.

Ken Eudy, “Consumer Interest in Sustainability Remains Consistent Through Downturn,“ Capstrat, Nov. 19, 2010, http://www.capstrat.com/news/consumer-interest-sustainability-remains-consistent- through-downturn.

Lydia Saad, “Americans' Spending Rises Modestly in December,“ Gallup Economy, Jan. 6, 2012, http://www.gallup.com/poll/151904/Americans-Spending-Rises-Modestly-December.aspx.

Credits

Author and Analyst Akhil Tandulwadikar, Senior Research Associate, Cognizant Research Center

Design Harleen Bhatia, Design Team Lead

Suresh Sambandhan, Designer

cognizant reports 10 About Cognizant

Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) is a leading provider of information technology, consulting, and business process outsourcing services, dedicated to helping the world’s leading companies build stronger businesses. Headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey (U.S.), Cognizant combines a passion for client satisfaction, technology innovation, deep industry and business process expertise, and a global, collaborative workforce that embodies the future of work. With over 50 delivery centers worldwide and approximately 137,700 employees as of December 31, 2011, Cognizant is a member of the NASDAQ-100, the S&P 500, the Forbes Global 2000, and the Fortune 500 and is ranked among the top performing and fastest growing companies in the world.

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