Monthly Food Security Update for Niger: January 22, 2002 Summary • Food security conditions for January were good as a result of a growing season that produced a 297,500 MT grain surplus and a 1,258,000 MT fodder surplus. However, farm families in 1,933 villages are experiencing what the National Early Warning System (SAP) defines as moderate and intermediate levels of food insecurity. • Although the country's major seasonal ponds and lakes are beginning to dry up, there is still enough water for planting vegetable gardens and watering animals. There have been no reports of any animal disease outbreaks. • According to the Market Information System (SIM), January 2002 grain prices in urban markets were above-normal for a surplus season. This price escalation is most likely a result of heavy demand from marketing agents out of Nigeria and stockpiling on the part of rural cooperatives and individual households. I. Food situation According to the Department of Agriculture, not one district in Niger is experiencing either famine conditions or extreme food insecurity. As of January, the good 2001/2002 growing season had produced a large enough supply of grains for rural and urban households to be held in reserve as household security stocks. However, despite this favorable food situation, 16 percent of the country's population, or 1,657,329 inhabitants, reside in areas subject to moderate and intermediate levels of food insecurity. The FEWS NET representative in Niger organized a special mission designed to assess the degree of food insecurity in a number of such areas over the period from December 28, 2001 to January 6, 2002, visiting 11 villages in the Tillabery, Dosso and Tahoua regions. The goals of the mission were to: • evaluate the extent of food insecurity in areas with production shortfalls assessed at over 50 percent by the Department of Agriculture; • discuss palliative measures with the local population; and • interview local residents and authorities. The mission made a general assessment of food insecurity levels according to the nature and impact of the production shortfall on household living conditions and the types of coping strategies followed by local residents. A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. Niamey, Immeuble EL USAID/FEWS NET Niger Téléphone 227 73 41 20 Fax 227 73 41 18 NASR 2 The leading causes of the production shortfalls in the 11 villages visited by the mission were low soil productivity (due to desertification), attacks by crop predators, delays in planting and the untimely end to the rainy season. Coping strategies that have been implemented in the face of food insecurity problems are centered on mass rural migration, sales of stock animals and poultry and the planting of vegetable gardens. The following lessons were drawn from the mission: 1. The food situation in neighboring villages with the same production shortfalls and soil productivity problems can vary (the case of the villages of Banne Kaina and Niaberi Kouara in the Tillabery region). The determining factors associated with the better food situation in the village of Niaberi Koira compared with that of Niaberi are: • the existence of a village-level cooperative headed by a charismatic leader, which has turned Niaberi into a catalyst for local initiatives such as the growing of truck crops and the construction of storage facilities; • the ongoing dialogue between residents of Niabéri Koira and agricultural authorities in search of mutually acceptable solutions to the problems faced by the village; and • the existence of a water hole outside the village which can be used for market gardening activities and the watering of livestock. 2. Leaching and desertification are becoming serious structural problems in Taggaye, Takanamat and Amawolé (Tahoua) and are at the root of the deterioration in soil productivity and food insecurity problems. Only long-term, integrated land reclamation programs with full community participation can curb growing desertification problems. 3. The problem of getting food supplies to remote, chronically food-deficit areas of the country where the local population is extremely poor (the case of Tagaye, Amawole and Takanamat) is heightened in the case of all such villages by the fact that it is simply not economically profitable for traders to supply these areas due to high shipping costs and the weak purchasing power of the local population. The establishment of grain banks funded by small project loans and loans from NGOs could improve grain access and availability in these problem areas. 4. Farmers in the village of Takanamat pulled immature cowpea crops out of the ground to avoid disputes with Peulh herders, thereby mortgaging the village harvest. These continuing disputes were largely responsible for the food deficit in this area, since a good cowpea harvest would have eased food insecurity problems. The local land use committee and area farmers and herders need to take new initiatives in search of a mutually agreeable solution to this problem. The success of ongoing decentralization efforts in this region hinges on the ability of local stakeholders to prevent these types of disputes. A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. Niamey, Immeuble EL USAID/FEWS NET Niger Téléphone 227 73 41 20 Fax 227 73 41 18 NASR 3 II. Market conditions January prices for millet were relatively high compared with normal price trends at this time of year, especially given the above-average harvest. In general, price levels should be comparatively low in the face of good food availability after a good growing season. However, January 2002 prices for millet were down by only 11 percent in Zinder and up by 5 percent in Maradi compared to January 2001 prices. January 2002 prices in Niamey showed little change from the same period last year (Figure 1). The perpetuation of such high prices despite the availability of grains and the good 2001/2002 growing season is most likely a result of heavy demand from Nigerian traders on the Zinder and Maradi markets, the hoarding of grains as security stocks at the individual household level and the high prices prevailing prior to and during the growing season. Figure 1: Multiyear Trends in Millet Prices (per kg) in The coming weeks could see a Selected Markets: January 1997-1999; 2001-2002 steep rise in prices continuing through the end of the 2002 Maradi Zinder 160 Niamey crop year, and could spread to 140 virtually all markets around the country, with price swings 120 following trends in supply and 100 demand. This foreseeable 80 hike in prices can be attributed fcfa/kg to a steady shrinkage in 60 inventories due to 40 consumption, a tightening of 20 market supplies and the commencement of domestic 0 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 grain marketing operations. Source: SIMC (Grain Market Information System) FEWS NET III. Review of food security monitoring and evaluation tools The main goal of the annual meeting of the SAP (the National Early Warning System) this year was to improve the quality of the content of the new vulnerability profile to better pinpoint deficit areas from a geographical standpoint and adapt it to conditions in so-called "pastoral" or stock- raising areas. The new approach establishes vulnerability indexes breaking down vulnerability levels in the previous profile into two separate components (see Table 1) to more accurately assess food security conditions in targeted areas. A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. Niamey, Immeuble EL USAID/FEWS NET Niger Téléphone 227 73 41 20 Fax 227 73 41 18 NASR 4 Table 1: Comparison of Previous and Current SAP Vulnerability Indexes Vulnerability level New vulnerability indexes Previous vulnerability indexes Moderate food insecurity 1 0-12 0--25 Moderate food insecurity 2 13-25 Not used Intermediate food insecurity 1 26-37 26-50 Intermediate food insecurity 2 38-50 Not used Extreme food insecurity 51-75 51-75 Famine conditions 76-100 76-100 Source: SAP (National Early Warning System) The use of these indexes has helped identify 18 or 42 percent of the 43 districts surveyed by the SAP as experiencing intermediate levels of food insecurity and 25 districts or 58 percent as moderately food-insecure (see Annex 1). According to the SAP officials attending the meeting, the new profile presents a number of problems engendered by vulnerability indexes regarded as out of touch with actual conditions in the field, a country breakdown by agroecological area (farming areas, agropastoral areas and pastoral areas) challenged by a number of local authorities and survey forms which are totally inappropriate for use in certain "pastoral" or stock- raising areas. To help remedy these problems, participants at the annual SAP meeting decided to lower the vulnerability rating above which a given area is subjected to regular monitoring from 25 to 20 points. Based on this new standard, 58 cantons, districts and sectors were targeted for regular monitoring in 2002, down from the 79 target areas in 2001. In addition, certain survey forms were tailored to the unique farming and livestock conditions prevailing in so-called "pastoral" areas and an effort was undertaken to develop a more accurate mapping system for breaking down the country by agroecological area (farming, agropastoral and pastoral areas). To its credit, the SAP meeting is a good forum for participatory discussions and critical studies of government monitoring activities. However, the poor quality of its discussions and proceedings produced improperly completed vulnerability profiles which could not be effectively used by corresponding participants, while technical discussions of the concept of food insecurity were limited by the participants' lack of proper training. The exclusion of all "communes" or municipalities from regular monitoring programs, including low-income neighborhoods and nearby villages, shuts out needy urban and rural households from the evaluation and intervention system.