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The Impact of Increased Use of Hydrogen on Petroleum Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

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The Impact of Increased Use of Hydrogen on Petroleum Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions SR/OIAF-CNEAF/2008-04 The Impact of Increased Use of Hydrogen on Petroleum Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions September 2008 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. Unless referenced otherwise, the information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. Service Reports are prepared by the Energy Information Administration upon special request and are based on assumptions specified by the requester. Preface and Contacts The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA provides timely, high-quality energy information and prepares objective, transparent analyses for use by the Congress, the Administration, and the public. EIA does not, however, take positions on policy issues. Because of EIA’s statutory independence with respect to the content of its energy information program, the analysis presented herein is strictly its own and should not be construed as representing the views of the Department of Energy or the Administration. The model projections in this report are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of scheduled regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected. EIA’s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) and Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels (CNEAF) prepared this report. General questions concerning industry statistics described in the report can be directed to Scott Sitzer ([email protected], 202/586-5509), Director of the Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, and Thomas Schmitz (thomas.schmitz@ eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1641), Director of its Coal, Nuclear and Renewable Fuels Division. General questions concerning projections described in the report can be directed to John Conti ([email protected], 202/586-2222), Director of the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, and A. Michael Schaal ([email protected], 202/586-5590), Director of its Oil and Gas Division. Specific questions about the report can be directed to the following analysts: Hydrogen Infrastructure ................James Joosten ([email protected], 202/586-5468) Peter Gross ([email protected], 202/586-8822) Systems Analysis...........................Andy Kydes ([email protected], 202/586-2222) James Joosten ([email protected], 202/586-5468) Technology Learning ....................Andy Kydes ([email protected], 202/586-2222) Transportation Modeling...............John D. Maples ([email protected], 202/586-1757) For ordering information and questions on other energy statistics available from EIA, please contact EIA’s National Energy Information Center at: National Energy Information Center, EI 30 Energy Information Administration Forrestal Building Washington, DC 20585 Telephone: 202/586-8800 TTY: 202/586-1181 FAX: 202/586-0727 E-mail: [email protected] World Wide Web Site: http://www.eia.doe.gov/ FTP Site: ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/ Energy Information Administration / Hydrogen Use, Petroleum Consumption, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions iii Contents Preface and Contacts........................................................................................................................ iii Contents...............................................................................................................................................v Executive Summary...........................................................................................................................ix 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................1 Background ......................................................................................................................................1 Report Organization .........................................................................................................................1 2. Hydrogen Economy Systems and Technology Review................................................................3 Hydrogen Supply .............................................................................................................................4 Hydrogen Production .......................................................................................................................5 Hydrogen Transmission and Distribution ......................................................................................11 Hydrogen Dispensing.....................................................................................................................16 Hydrogen End Use Applications....................................................................................................17 Market Potential for Hydrogen in Distributed Generation.............................................................23 3. Energy and CO2 Emissions Impacts of Fuel Cell Vehicles .......................................................26 Fuel Cell Vehicle Market Penetration Scenarios ...........................................................................26 Fuel Cell Vehicle Fuel Economy Scenarios...................................................................................29 Impacts on Light-Duty Vehicle Direct Energy Use .......................................................................31 Conclusion......................................................................................................................................40 4. Technological and Economic Challenges....................................................................................41 Challenges to Deployment of a Hydrogen Economy.....................................................................41 Competition in the Light-Duty Vehicle Market and Technological Progress................................41 DOE’s Key Targets and Goals for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Vehicles ...........................................43 Appendix A. Analysis Request Letter.............................................................................................49 Appendix B. Heat Content and Useful Conversions......................................................................51 Appendix C. Existing Hydrogen Production Capacity .................................................................53 Appendix D. Operational Hydrogen FCVs ....................................................................................57 Appendix E. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios .......................................................................61 Appendix F. Technology Learning and Market Penetration .......................................................65 Appendix G. FCVs and the Market for Platinum .........................................................................69 Energy Information Administration / Hydrogen Use, Petroleum Consumption, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions v Tables ES1. Potential Impacts of Hydrogen-Powered FCVs on Petroleum Use and CO2 Emissions from Light-Duty Vehicles in 2050 .......................................................................................................x 2.1. Estimated Hydrogen Production Costs..........................................................................................8 2.2. Miles of Hydrogen Pipeline in the United States ........................................................................12 2.3. Hydrogen Refueling Stations in the United States, 2007 ............................................................17 3.1. Hydrogen Feedstock and Production Scenarios ..........................................................................30 4.1. New Car Efficiency in the AEO2008 Reference Case.................................................................42 B.1. Heating Values............................................................................................................................51 C.1. Estimated United States Hydrogen Production Capacity, 2003 and 2006..................................53 D.1. California Hydrogen Vehicles ....................................................................................................57 D.2. DOE/National Renewable Energy Laboratory Heavy Vehicle Fuel Cell/Hydrogen Evaluations.................................................................................................................................58 D.3. Typical United States Transit Bus Costs ....................................................................................59 F.1. Estimated Learning Rates............................................................................................................66 Figures ES1. Historical Light-Duty Vehicle CO2 Emissions and Petroleum Use, and Potential Impacts of a Hydrogen Economy, 1970-2050..........................................................................................xi 2.1. Simplified Overview of the
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