foreword

MISSION OF THE CANADIAN SPACE AGENCY I am very pleased to release the latest edition of our Global Space Market Trends and The Canadian Space Agency is committed to leading Drivers 2002. Developed by the External Relations Directorate of the Canadian Space the development and application of space knowledge Agency and now in its fourth year of publication, it provides an in-depth analysis for the benefit of Canadians and humanity. of the principal market and regulatory trends in key areas of the Canadian Space Program, namely: satellite communications; remote sensing; robotics, navigation and The External Relations Directorate space science. The External Relations Directorate manages the strategic relationships between the Canadian Space Over the past year, as President of the Canadian Space Agency, I have benefited from Agency and its domestic and international partners. numerous exchanges and consultations with all partners in the Canadian Space Sector Key mandates include the development and imple- and have developed a profound appreciation of both the multitude of challenges con- mentation of policies and strategies relating to fronting us and the great opportunities which lie in our future. cooperation partnerships with domestic stakeholders (Federal and Provincial governments, industry and I note with pride that the Canadian Space Sector remains internationally competitive, academia) and international agencies and industries, export-oriented and is recognized as a major contributor to Canada’s goal of becoming as well as support to the commercial initiatives the best knowledge-based economy in the world. For example, the results of a recent of Canadian space companies on world markets. round of consultations with our federal departments and agencies underscored the very In connection with the latter, the Directorate tangible ways in which space applications already provide knowledge-oriented solutions provides strategic and timely information to industry that benefit Canadians, while revealing a host of potential future opportunities. and other stakeholders. In order to remain competitive, the Canadian Space Sector must stay abreast of key Contact: changes in the global marketplace and be ever aware of the trends and forces that Michel Giroux influence the vitality and commercial success of our industry. As part of the Canadian Director, External Relations Space Agency’s ongoing commitment to promoting a highly competitive space industry, 6767 route de l’ Aéroport Global Trends 2002 captures the major market changes which occurred over the past St-Hubert, Québec year, updates the forecasts for growth opportunities and provides a discussion of the J3Y 8Y9 market conditions and international trends that government and industry partners ©Tel:All 450-926-4360 rights reserved. need to be aware of. I trust you will find this information beneficial and relevant to Fax: 450-926-4362 your organization’s strategic planning. CSA Web Site: www.space.gc.ca

Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada 2003.

Marc Garneau President Canadian Space Agency table of contents

SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS 6 Executive Summary 8 Market Characteristics and Major Events of 2000 and Early 2001 8 Market Trends 16 What to Expect in the Next Few Years 26 Conclusions 28

EARTH OBSERVATION 30 Executive Summary 32 Market Characteristics 32 Major Events of 2001-2002 42

This document has been Market Trends 48 What to Expect in the Next Few Years 55 prepared to provide Conclusions 58 general information to Appendices 60 the reader about major

trends affecting the SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION 64

various sectors. The Executive Summary 66

Canadian Space Agency Market Characteristics 67 Major Canadian Events of 2001 and Early 2002 71 does not guarantee the Market Trends 74 accuracy of the infor- What to Expect in the Next Few Years 80 mation contained Conclusions 83 herein, and assumes no

responsibility for any

course of action taken

as a result thereof. GLOBAL SPACE SECTOR MARKET TRENDS AND DRIVERS table of contents

SATELLITE NAVIGATION 88 Introduction 90 Market Characteristics 90 Major Events of 2001 and early 2002 99 Market Trends and Opportunities 105 What to Expect in the Next Few Years 119

SPACE SCIENCE 122 Executive Summary 124 Market Characteristics and Major Events of the Recent Past 125 Market Trends 129 What to Expect in the Next Few Years 132 Conclusions 133 References and Key Connections 135 Appendix - Canadian Industry Profile 136

Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 5 table of contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8

OFMARKET 2000 CHARACTERISTICSAND EARLY 2001 AND MAJOR EVENTS 8

MARKET TRENDS 16

WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS 26

Prepared by: CONCLUSIONS 28

Stéphane Lessard

External Relations

SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND MAJOR EVENTS investor confidence in general. Now, and for the next 1-2 years at least, would-be lenders are espe- These problems in the commercial satellite communi- cially stringent in their requirements for new loans cations industry affect all satellite prime contractors, (attempting to eliminate or transfer most risks), and by extension their suppliers in Canada and •The lifetime of GEO satellites will continue 1 For example, EXECUTIVE SUMMARY and the stock markets are inhospitable to new public elsewhere. US prime contractors,Insurance capacity however, enjoy an 4 to increase. 360Networks, Global The past year has been a difficult one for the global offerings. Less financing means fewer projects, and edge because of theirfell access to US$970 to large M in and increasing •US prime contractors will continue to dominate Crossing and WorldCom telecommunications sector, and the space component fewer opportunities for Canadian space companies. military programs (such2001, as compared those related to to GPS the market. filed for Chapter 11 in of this sector has been no exception. Large projects Modernization, or HomelandUS$1.1 B inSecurity). 2000, and European • Consolidation and vertical integration will continue the US in June 2001, have faltered, and some operators have gone under. Compounding the industry’s problems, 2001 was a prime contractors dois not expected enjoy to this sink benefit, since among satellite operators. January 2002 and July This has had a significant negative impact on the bad year for the satellite insurance industry Europe has no supra-nationalto US$700 military M in 2002 space program •Manufacturing overcapacity in US and Europe will 2002, respectively. Canadian satellite communications industry. Several of significance, and andnational further programs in 2003. are few and remain a problem. In July 2002, Alcatel far between. It is generallyAmong the difficult most for Canadian suppliers have seen their order books shrink as a 3 •ITARs will remain an irritant in dealing with . Several reported a US$1.4 B result of reduced demand from large global prime space suppliers to accessaffected defense projects space will contracts US manufacturers. design errors were behind a string of failures that loss, and had previously contractors, leading to a reduced turnover and some in the US and otherbe foreign the large countries, 4-5 metric although •The financing outlook will improve for some could raise the total claims against insurers to announced plans to lay job losses. However, an examination of prevailing there are exceptions.ton communications satellite communications operators. US$1.5 B for 2001, suggesting total payouts could 2off 30% of its work force. satellites and the new trends provides cause for optimism for a rebound MARKET CHARACTERISTICS surpass the record levels set in 1998-2000. This In the US, the effectsheavy of the lift 1999 boosters transfer of export in the near future. We expect this cyclical downturn AND MAJOR EVENTS OF 2001-2002 vastly surpasses the premiums collected (for instance, In May 2002, BCE Inc. licensing authority forrequired commercial to launch satellites from to be over in 1-2 years, and for the Canadian industry total premiums amounted to US$490 M in 2001), announced it was 4, and forcing key insurers to raise the Commerce to theth em.StateSee Department “Worsening and the to continue to reap the benefits of past and on-going aggravating an insurance capacity crunch, which OVERALL SITUATION 5 reviewing its funding premium prices. Insurers have also demanded that applications of the InternationalInsurance Crunch Traffic Worries in Arms investments in technological excellence. This will In late 2000 and 2001, the “.com” stock market appeared in 2000 commitments to satellite manufacturers strengthen their quality Regulations (ITARs) Spacecontinued Industry”, to be AWST, felt in 2001 5 require a continuation of the strategic partnership bubble burst, and the telecommunications sector Teleglobe and the control mechanisms, including greater scrutiny over and 2002. Even thoughMay 20,during 2002, this p. 47.period the between the industry and the Canadian government. in general suffered a meltdown, with the difficulties possibility of sub-contractors. This may lead to a greater reluctance US government and US companies beefed up their 3 of several1 high profile companies2 gracing the front renegotiating or , including in Canada . The telecommunications on the part of prime contractors to change esta- licensing staff and someRates regulations for launch wereand stream- Over the next few years, the main global trends pages sector’s difficulties were due to a significant over- restructuring its debt. will be: blished designs, making it more difficult for Canadian lined, and even though1 year the of Canadian operations government capacity in terrestrial networks as well as bad •North America will continue to lead world and other suppliers to sell new technologies. This was successful in gettingcoverage the are previous already Canadian management (unworkable debt loads) at several See “Worsening demand for communications services. means that the role of the Canadian Space Agency ITARs exemption partially50% higher restored, than satellites in (even carriers and Internet companies. These combined Insurance Crunch •The US market for telecommunications services (CSA) in helping Canadian companies develop and commercial communications1999, when satellites) in-orbit remain events led to a loss of confidence in the investment Worries Space Industry”, and equipment will remain predominant. flight validate new technologies is becoming that generally subject to ITARscoverage and often TAAs extended are required for community at large as to the profitability and viability Aviation Week and •Television will remain the dominant application. much more important, in reducing the perceived almost all technologyto exchanges5 years. Insurance and discussions of telecommunications companies, with a spillover Space Technology •DBS will continue to gain ground on cable systems. costs and risks to prime contractors. with US space manufacturers,costs can reach and up this to process effect on satellite communications companies. This (AWST), May 20, • In-flight multimedia services should be deployed takes time. 20% of total acquisition in turn soured the investment climate for most other 2002, p. 47. widely by 2005. costs of satellites. See space companies. The events of September 11, 2001, • Roll out of Ka band services on a regional basis “Worsening Insurance and the recession which followed in North America will be gradual and cautious. Crunch Worries Space and elsewhere, contributed to further weakening •High volume data transmissions will become Industry”, AWST, May a niche market. 20, 2002, p. 47. • Demand for GEO transponders will increase slowly, Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 9 SATELLITE COMMUNICrequiring new satellites inATIONS the 2004-2010 period. SYSTEMS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS AND MAJOR EVENTS AND MAJOR EVENTS the TV market. Many were able to report growing In the field of Direct Audio Broadcasting (DAB), three profits and stronger balance sheets. Indeed, a group operators, WorldSpace Corp., Sirius Satellite Radio signing of a contract valued at CA$1.1 M to provide of 41 operators from around the world earned about and XM Radio Corp., dominated the scene, aiming to a SuperFelx hybrid broadband data and video distance US$7.1 B in 2000, an increase of 14.7% over 1999 provide CD-quality radio services to consumers, using learning system to a Mexican government client. proprietary terminals. While Worldspace targets 6 On the other side of the Incoin, 2001, these SES acquiredUS measures 10 In February 2002, populations in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, have been somewhat compensatedGE Americom for for by the Direct to Home Television (DTH) continued to perform EchoStar reported the other two systems provide services in the US continued elimination US$4.3of investment B, moving restrictions, it very well in many markets. In the US, EchoStar quarterly revenues 8. only. As of March 31, 2002, XM Satellite Radio had monopolies and other toforms first ofrank trade among barriers in of approximately more than 76,000 total subscribers, targeting some areas of the world.global While operators. protectionism is 10 and US$1.15 B, compared However, the downturn in the telecommunications 350,000 subscribers by the end of 2002. Sirius 7 still palpable in some countries, liberalisation of 11DirecTVsignificantly expanded their subscriber base. to US$805 M for the sector made investment and launch insurance for expects to roll out its service across the US in the telecommunications regimesIn July and 2001, more theopen market In October 2001, General Motors Corp. agreed to sell corresponding period new projects more expensive and difficult to obtain, third quarter of 2002. Most financial analysts expect access as envisaged by assetsthe World and Tradeactivities Organisation Hughes Electronics Corp., parent of DirecTv and in the previous year, forcing satellite operators to squeeze additional demand for DAB to develop very rapidly, especially and passed the 7 (WTO) Agreement on basicof the telecommunications EUTELSAT are PanAmSat, to Echostar, for US$26 B. The merger is efficiencies out of their existing fleets and to refocus in the vehicle markets. million subscriber gradually being implementedintergovernmental globally. For instance, expected to create a stronger competitor to large, their attention on their core businesses (tradi- milestone in the Canadian Fixed Satelliteorganization Service were (FSS) market US cable and broadband providers. The deal still tional services) and markets. This has slowed the 11February 2002. was formally opened totransferred foreign satellite into operators requires regulatory approvals, which are not guaran- development and introduction of new services. in March 2000. Since thatEutelsat time moreS.A., athan limited 50 foreign teed, given the competitive (anti trust) implications. DIRECTV added a net satellites have been authorizedliability company by the Canadian The combined entity will serve all 210, US TV markets, At year end 2000, 81% of the total fixed communi- EVENTS IN MOBILE TELEPHONY total of 1,345,000 new government to provide headquarteredservices in Canada. in Paris. but is still barred from providing services in Canada12 . cations and broadcasting transponder capacity AND PAGING SERVICES subscribers in 2001, This continues the 9. by licensing rules requiring minimum Canadian (C and Ku bands) was being used, compared to 78% In 2001, the debacle of LEO projects for mobile tele- ending the year with Many in the satellite communicationstrend established byindustry content. SES Global is opposing the merger 12 In Canada, Bell Expressvu announced in November phony continued. International Licensees L.L.C. a total of 10.7 million 8 in 1999, with overcapacity being highest in Asia (manufacturers and operators)the earlier see privatizations 2002 as a year In Canadian news, Industry Canada granted Telesat 2001 it had signed up 1 million customers, the first (27% of transponders were unused in 2001) acquired Orbcomm for US$13 M and Iridium Satellite customers. of stagnant growth andof ofIntelsat consolidation, and Inmarsat. in pre- a license in June 2001 to launch a C-Ku band to do so. Construction of Telesat’s Nimiq 2 direct L.L.C. acquired Iridium L.L.C. for US$25 M, fire sales paration for a rebound expected to start in the satellite (ANIK F3) at 118.7º West. The satellite is EVENTS IN FIXED SATELLITE SERVICES broadcast satellite remains on target at Lockheed in both cases. Both systems, as well as Globalstar In May 2002, SES 2003-04 time frame. expected to be launched in 2004. In August 2002, AND BROADCASTINGWorld Satellite Martin Commercial Space Systems, with service ini- and ICO Global, are still struggling to provide services 13Americom asked the (TRADITIONAL AND DIRECT) Communications and NSI Global Inc. received contracts to provide wireless tiation planned for early 2003. Bell ExpressVu agreed US FCC to examine 13 and expand their user base. Aside from handset In 2001, the top nine operators were (in order) (32-transponders). In addition to providing Broadcasting Markets communications networks in China. NSI said it would with Telesat in June 2001 to use Nimiq-2’s full marketing and delivery problems, these difficulties the merger. SES Global 6, Intelsat, PanAmSat, Eutelsat 7, JSAT, broadcast services, Nimiq 2 will have a Ka-band Survey, Prospects supply Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) networks capacity are due to fundamental economics: the cost (and Loral Skynet, SCC, New Skies and StarOne. Telesat payload to provide Internet and multimedia services. 9 to 2010, Euroconsult, for satellite-based communications to six new cash flow impact) of deploying these systems (many Three of the DBS Canada is in 12th place overall. Despite the broader Paris, 2002 p. 23 customers in China, and will expand an existing satellites in LEO) was not justified by market demand, transponders will be meltdown of the telecommunications sector in 2000 (hereinafter NSI-supplied network. Since the beginning of 2002, which was drastically reduced by the relentless available for resale to and 2001, satellite“Euroconsult” operators 2002) performed generally NSI has secured contracts with a value of CA$4.2 M Canadian broadcasters. well, supported by growth in Internet traffic and to supply VSAT networks to China. In December 2001, Euroconsult 2002, p. 1. International Datacasting (IDC) announced the

SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 11 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS AND MAJOR EVENTS AND MAJOR EVENTS

In April 2002, the Canadian Centre for Marine Communications (CCMC), in partnership with the Communications Research Centre (CRC), requested Globalstar awarded concept proposals under Marine Information Skyway a contract to Space development of cellular systems in lucrative urban EVENTS IN BROADBAND SERVICES 14 16 In July 2002, 20 proposes the acqui- — a CA$1.5 M initiative to stimulate and support Systems/Loral for the sition of all the assets markets. Cumulatively, in excess of US$25 B was In the late 1990s, all satellite prime contractors were Japanese corporations the development and commercialization of satellite construction of a 2 GHz of Astrolink by Liberty spent on these and other systems, and despite all planning one or more Ka-band systems. Many of announced a plan to communications applications for the marine sector. satellite system for Satellite, which plans this, mobile services remain a regional niche market these have now been quietly abandoned or delayed build a satellite commu- serving about 800,000 users worldwide. Given this delivering advanced nications network to pursue a revised indefinitely (e.g. SES’ Pioneer, Loral’s Cyberstar, 17 EMS Technologies has landed a number of contracts ). services. Globalstar operating plan for the poor track record, it is surprising that some of Alcatel’s Skybridge, Lockheed Martin’s Astrolink known as “Figure-8” 14 Another program which has suffered significant the promoters of failed projects are continuing. to for its mobile data terminal, PDT 100, including envisions a constellation or “Quasi-Zenith” for new Astrolink system. delays and redesign is Teledesic. It is, however, appa- 18 promote new LEO constellations providing 1200 units a year to the US military. 18 . of 56 low-earth-orbit cellular phones and rently still proceeding In February 2002, None of the above systems ever seriously challen- (LEO) satellites other mobile commu- Teledesic selected ged the domination of Inmarsat Ventures and of In January 2001, NSI purchased 79.4% of Vistar for Despite this, some companies are still championing supplemented with nications services at Qualcomm’s OmniTracs system, both GEO-based sys- US$51.2 M from a group of shareholders that inclu- projects in the near to medium term. In August 2001, four geostationary orbit a cost of some US$1 B Alenia Spazio to build tems with global coverage which together account ded BCE. Vistar is a world leader in satellite-based the FCC authorized eleven new and established (GEO) satellites. The beginning in 2005. Also, the first two satellites for 80% of the world user base. mobile communications terminals and asset-tracking satellite operators to provide Ka-band satellite ser- first launches are the Mobile Broadcasting for its system. Nego- services for applications such as long-haul trailer vice in the US. The newly licensed companies include anticipated for 2006. Corporation (MBC) of tiations are underway Some regional GEO systems have also done reason- tracking and remote asset monitoring. In July 2001, the FCC with Alenia and other 15 ; a similar system by Thuraya CAI Data Systems, Lockheed Martin, Celsat America, Japan and Space Systems/ ably well: Pasifik Satelit Nusantara’s Asia Cellular granted Globalstar a manufacturers for Satellite Communications; and Insat 2E (India). Loral Cyberstar, DirectCom Networks, Pacific Loral will build the Satellite (ACeS) 16 . CMC Electronics has captured more than 75% of all license to use a 2 GHz the remainder of the Other systems are planned, including in Japan Century Group, Hughes Communications, PanAmSat, MBSAT communications Aero-H/H+ airline installations with its Satellite KaStarCom World Satellite, Pegasus Development mobile satellite radio satellite. MBSAT will satellites needed. 15 In Canadian news, Telesat acquired 100% of Infosat Communications (Satcom) antennas. The popularity Corporation and TRW. All companies intend to use spectrum. deliver digital multi- Teledesic’s latest from BCE for CA$24 M. Infosat is a telecommuni- of CMC’s high gain antenna system, known as the these satellites to provide Ka-band fixed-satellite media information network architecture cations solutions provider, using MSAT, Inmarsat, CMA-2102, was confirmed in July 2002 with major services (FSS). ACeS is co-owned services such as CD- calls for 30 medium- Iridium and other systems. In November 2001, the new orders placed by some of the world’s leading by PT Pasifik Satelit quality audio, MPEG-4 Earth-orbit Ka-band 17 satellite division of US Motient Corporation and airlines. Japan Airlines ordered the CMA-2102 for In a February 2002 report, the US FCC found satellite Nusantara (PSN), video and data satellites. The first 12 Canada’s TMI Communications joined forces to form 18 firm and 16 optional B747s. Singapore Airlines broadband offerings growing but still dominated Lockheed Martin Global to mobile users satellites are expected a new entity, Mobile Satellite Ventures. The union ordered the antenna for its fleet of 18 new B777s by cable web services. According to the new FCC data, Telecommunications, throughout Japan. to cost under US$1 B, allows these two companies, both leaders in the and six B747s. Qantas ordered the antenna for 6 there were 9.6 million high-speed Internet users as Philippine Long substantially less satellite communications industry, to combine their new B747s and 13 A330s. of June 30, 2001, a 36% increase during the first Distance Telephone In November 2001, than previous system strengths and knowledge to build a system capable half of 2001 and a 250% increase from the FCC’s Company and Jasmine both TRW and Lockheed designs, and provide of taking North American satellite communications second report issued in August 2000. International of Martin announced that coverage needed to into the future. Thailand. ACeS is the they were halting launch service in seve- first satellite based, further investment in ral areas of the world. geostationary handheld Astrolink. In May 2002, The remaining 18 mobile voice and data Liberty Satellite & satellites would expand communications system Technology, Lockheed coverage globally. SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS specificallyGlobal designed Space Martin,Sector TRW Market and Trends And Drivers 13 for the Asian region. Telespazio agreed to restructure Astrolink. The restructuring plan MARKET CHARACTERISTICS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS AND MAJOR EVENTS AND MAJOR EVENTS Whereas in 2000 European prime contractors (Alcatel, Astrium) had shocked US primes by netting 16 of 22 satellite orders, they were only able to win 6 orders out of 26 in 2001, with most awards going to American manufacturers. 19 Telesat increased its shareEuroconsult of Wildblue 2002, to p. 20% 81. from In October 2001, Norsat International announced REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS 22 The FCC is proposing the 6.2% it had acquired in 2000. Development of that the People’s Daily, China’s largest daily news- In February 2002, the US FCC announced that, in two possible licensing 20 In the US, Northrop Grumman acquired TRW in a approaches to replace the KA Band payload for Telesat’sFor instance, Anik space F2 continues paper, had selected Norsat’s broadband Digital Video order to expedite delivery of satellite services and US$7.8 B transaction in July 2002. The European the existing application with launch scheduled forrepresented mid- 2003. just This 10% multimedia Broadcasting (DVB) data hub to manage the move- reduce the time required to assess applications, it (Alcatel, Astrium) and American (Boeing, Lockheed 22 . Further, the FCC process. Currently, payload includes ComDev’sof EADS’ BeamLink and 12% and of EMS Tech- ment of newspaper and sizable video files across will revamp existing procedures Martin, Northrup Grumman) conglomerates are very announced in April 2002 that it had approved a the FCC considers nologies Canada’s SpaceMux,Alcatel’s both operations developed under its corporate network. all satellite license diversified plan that would let companies share spectrum used CSA’s Flight Payload demonstrationin 2000. Program. Once applications together 21 by satellite television services as long as it does in service, Anik F2 will be one of the most powerful In June 2002, Norsat International announced a in “processing rounds,” commercial satellites, a significant addition to contract with Globecomm Systems Inc. (GSI) for its not create interference. The agency plans to auction where the FCC and Euroconsult data 20 . In July 2002, European Aeronautic, Canada’s telecommunications infrastructure and open standard Digital Video Broadcasting (DVB) off the spectrum that could be used by bidders for applicants have the presented at the Defense and Space Company (EADS) announced that opportunity to negotiate will play a key role in meeting“Espace, the Stratégie goal of et becoming forward link satellite network and services. GSI will a variety of services, including pay television, similar it had bought out BAE Systems’ 25% share in Astrium. a solution to all the most connected nationSécurité” in the Colloquium, world. integrate Norsat’s established DVB forward link sub- to those offered by EchoStar Communications Corp., potential conflicts February 13, 2002. system with a return channel product to provide an as well as high-speed Internet access. Unlike Canadian space companies, which are gene- between proposed In the second quarter of 2002, Telesat launched interactive DVB-RCS system. Another contract was rally not diversified, these foreign primes are better satellites. The FCC would Telesat High Speed Internet (HSi), a two-way announced in June with Quick Link Communications In June 2002, the Canadian Radio Telecommuni- protected against cyclical industry downturns. This like to replace this satellite turnkey service for Web-based Internet/ for the sale of up to 500 VSAT Ku-band terminals cations Commission (CRTC) issued an invitation to process with one of two said, US prime contractors remain much less vulne- Intranet access and many data and IP multicast for broadband communication to remote locations, submit expressions of interest to Industry Canada possible new procedures. rable to commercial market cycles than their European EVENTS IN SATELLITE MANUFACTURING with respect to developing satellites using new The first is a “first applications, with coverage throughout Canada primarily in the oil and gas industry. 23 . counterparts. In 2002, estimates show that total come, first served” and the continental U.S. Satellite prime contractors and their suppliers had broadcasting-satellite service spectrum to be avai- US space (including satellites) sales of US$20.5 B system in which the FCC a good and a bad year in 2001. On one hand, at 21 lable effective April 1, 2007. To date, Bell ExpressVu will be 81% military and 19% commercial,. while would consider the first In June 2002, EMS Technologies Canada and Alcatel the end of 2001, 99 GEO commercial satellites were and Telesat Canada have filed expressions of interest total European industry sales of US$8 B will be 61% application for specific Space signed a cooperation agreement for the deve- in development or awaiting launch,19 with a cumu- . This represented an militaryBoeing and Space 39% andcommercial Communications (BSC) announced spectrum and/or orbit lative value of US$11.6 B lopment of Broadband Satellite Access Solutions increase of 9% compared to end 2000 due to a surge in 2001 its intention to outsource more of its compo- location. Applications filed subsequently compliant with the DVB-RCS open standard. of orders in 2000 (42 satellites ordered for US$4.8 B) nents and sub-systems, in a move away from vertical would be included in a and launch delays. On the other hand, only 26 new integration. The CSA and Industry Canada have queue according to their On April 18, 2001, Norsat announced an agreement satellites were ordered in 2001. Several orders were initiated a dialogue with BSC to help position Cana- date of filing. This with China Netcom Corporation Limited (CNC), China’s also cancelled during this period. dian space companies as suppliers to BSC. A series would expedite the leading broadband infrastructure provider, to supply of targeted meetings will be organized between system. The second a large, fully redundant SpectraWorks DVB (Digital some Canadian space companies and BSC to explore proposal is to modify the current processing Video Broadcasting) Data Hub for CNC’s Internet possible opportunities. CSA is planning to replicate 23 round approach by gateway in Beijing. this model, in which CSA would act as “broker”, with establishing a 60-day other prime contractors in the US, Europe and Japan. deadline for completing negotiations and requests for comment. SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 15 See http://strategis.ic.gc.ca /SSG/sf05907e.html MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS Transponders currently in development should satisfy demand until end 2003, after which time new trans- ponders will be required. This will drive demand for new satellites, with 175-201 satellites to be deli- FIGURE A 24 MARKET TRENDS Euroconsult 2002, p. 4. vered between 2001-2010, for an aggregate value 29 Asia-Pacific has five of US$21.9-26.5 B (excluding the cost of launch GROWTH OF THE WORLD TRANSPONDER FLEET (1967-2000, PROSPECTS FOR 2010) times more television 25 TRENDS IN FIXEDEuroconsult TELEPHONY 2002, p. 4. (FSS) and insurance). Excluding satellites already under households than North construction, this leaves a potential for 50-80 new Completed Forecast America but only one AND BROADCASTING 12000 26 quarter of DBS satellite (TRADITIONAL ANDEuroconsult DIRECT) 2002, p. 1. satellite orders during this period. As B television users, accor- 27 North America will continue to lead world demand indicates, Euroconsult expects 19 commercial GEO 10000 ding to research firm, 24 : for communications Euroconsult 2002, satellites to be launched annually in the 2001-2010 Frost & Sullivan. As a Of the 8,904 transponders expected to be in use FIGURE B C p. 122. period, compared to 22 satellites annually in the 8000 result, Asia has great 28 in 2010, 25% will serve N. America, followed by 1990s. This decline, however, must be seen in the DBS potential but it Asia Pacific and Western Europe (22% each), Latin D Euroconsult 2002, context of larger and higher performance satellites. 6000 is a struggle for America (12%), Africap. 122. and the Middle East (8%), profitability against Central/Eastern Europe (6%) and South Asia (5%). 4000 the more established— The number of transponders on GEO satellites A E and cheaper—cable continues to increase 25 : F Television will remain the predominant 2000 TV services. “DBS in G Of the 8,904 transponders expected to be in use in 27 : Asia: More Patience application 2010, television and video feeds will represent 52% For C and Ku-band satellites, the average number of 0 H Before Profits”, of transponder usage, followed by voice and data transponders on satellites launched from 1995-2000 1967 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 www.satnewsasia.com, March 2002. traffic (excluding Internet) (20%), Internet trunking was 36 units at 36-MHz. For satellites in cons- A Supply (C & Ku) E Transponder fleet attrition New C/Ku tx (18%), direct Internet access (9%) and on-board truction as of mid-2001, the number had grown B Transponders needed to meet the F New Ka-band projects** as of 03/30/01 70's: + 485 tx 80's: +2423 tx processing signalling capacity (1%). to 48 transponders, and the largest GEO satellites demand model (including a 20% margin*) G Probable shift in ka-band projects C Transponders utilization C & Ku-band 90's: + 5711 tx can accommodate as many as 100 transponders. H Supply (Ka-band) 00's: + 6719 tx 26 D Transponders in construction as : (to meet the demand model) Demand for GEO transponders is increasing slowly, of 03/30/01 (C & Ku-band) Despite the increasing efficiencies operators are 28 : requiring new satellites in the 2004-2010 period The lifetime of GEO satellites will continue *historical average getting from existing satellites, and the increasing The design lifetime for satellites launched in 2001 **according to promoters' expected date of launch to increase competitive threat from terrestrial fiber networks, was 13.5 years and this is expected to increase to Source: Euroconsult’s ECOSPACE database various factors continue to drive up demand for 14.8 years for satellites to be launched around 2004. geostationary satellite communications, including DBS operators are now introducing enhanced and growth inFIGURE internet A traffic and sales of VSATs and DBS Canada has traditionally focused on the development DBS will continue to gain ground on cable systems: interactive TV services: Improvements in set-top-box dishes. As indicates, Euroconsult of sub-systems and components for geostationary In developed countries, this will be especially true technology and a more sophisticated utilisation of predicts that transponder demand will continue to satellites, a strategy validated by the above trends. in regions unserved by cable, but also to a lesser the capabilities of the Digital Video Broadcast grow by about 5.6% per year in the next 10 years. extent in cities. Growth will be fastest in developing (DVB) standards are enabling home shopping, countries, especially in Asian countries29 . where cable banking and other value added services to be offered. systems are less prevalent

SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 17 MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS

FIGURE B FIGURE C 30 Euroconsult 2002, 32 In September 2001, COMMERCIAL GEOSTATIONARY COMMUNICATION SATELLITES LAUNCHES ROLE OF SATELLITES IN INTERNET DELIVERY Airbus and Astrium (1967-2001, PROSPECTSp. 203. FOR 2010) announced a similar 31 initiative. In May 2002, Boeing’s Completed Forecast Category Description Providers Strength 35 33 Connexion division Internet Backhaul Transport Internet Intelsast, Panamsat, Alternative to Air Canada has 30 received US Federal (pull) traffic from ISP to Eutelsat, New Skies, terrestrial backbone requesting ISP Astra, Shin Satellite, (fiber, undersea cable) completed its 6-month Aviation Administration Loral Skynet 25 trial of Tenzing’s email (FAA) certification Deliver high- Internet content Same as above Broadcasting access service, and 20 for its satellite-based bandwidth content transmitted to ISPs plus Cidera capability of satellites to ISP POP (Push) and cached to provide an advantage; Cathay Pacific is offering 15 airborne communications to usersmore rapid delivery in internet bypasses congestion this same service on system. Mitsubishi some flights. 10 Broadband End-user/last mile Gilat, Hughes, ICO, Where terrestrial Electric will provide (lastinternet mile) access locations Access from fixed WildBlue, Spaceway, Skybridge, Astra, synergy broadband with DTH unavailable; 5 the aircraft antennas. IP VSAT networks IP connectivity for iDirect, Cyberstar; Upgrade of VSAT 0 As a result of the VSATS; combines Hughes; Shin; Asiasat networks 1967 1970weakened 1975 travel1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 voice, video, data 70's average: 4/year 80's average: 13/year 90's: 22/year 00's: 19/year business following the (21 with ICO) Source: Leslie Taylor Associates, January 2002 attacks of September Fixed service satellites All commercial GEO satellites* 11, American Airlines, to 3 million terminals in 2005 and 11 million termi- In-flight services should be deployed widely Mobile communication satellites Satellites needed to meet the 30 . Inmarsat and Qualcomm’s OmniTRACs by 2005: Digital audioDelta broadcasting and United satellites C & Ku-band transponder demand model nals by 2010 will continue to prevail. Some of the new GEO systems Boeing Space and Communications has launched its Airlines have decided 31 , and other projects 32 have been *The non-geostationary satellites in the ICO and Sirius systems are included because they are closely derived from to be introduced in the near future include Inmarsat Connexion system geostationary models,to withdraw a separate as equity trend is shown without the ICO system because of its large size and uncertain status. proposed to provide in-flight TV, email and Internet 4 satellites and one more satellite from Thuraya. partners in Boeing’s access. The events of September 11, 2001 have Source: Euroconsult’s ECOSPACE database precipitated a series of failures among airlines and planned Connexion Growth through specialized services: Internet service, forced the remaining ones to remap their priorities With the move to introduce massive local storage in We can expect future growth to be driven in good TRENDS IN MOBILE SERVICES in the near term. Yet, polls indicate a latent demand although they could the next generation of set top boxes, the broadcast part by the development of new, specialized services GEO systems will dominate: for in-flight services. Already, some trials have (e.g. pipeline monitoring). satellite industry looksbe set test to users. capitalise In July further on 33 . Until the disadvantageous economics of LEO systems been conducted, and limited services for email its large installed user 2002,base. Japan Airlines are resolved, we can expect the market for GEO access are available agreed to become Asia’s based services and terminals to continue growing, first launch customer

for Connexion. SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 19 MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS For these reasons, we can expect satellites to play a small but vital role in delivering services to consumers. Euroconsult estimates that there will be 1 billion Internet users in 2010, requiring 1,547 TRENDS IN BROADBAND SERVICES 36 MHz transponders 34 “InStat: Broadband According37 to the 39 Euroconsult 2002, Thailand’s42 Shin It is unclear44 at this Global demand for Internet access is growing fast: Still Growing”, research firm InStat, p. 215. Satellite (ShinSat), Asia’s time whether the According to the research firm In-Stat/MDR, at www.skyreport.com, worldwide DSL second largest satellite DVB-RCS open standard, 40 the beginning of 2002, the worldwide broadband 39 , making Internet trunking the July 23, 2002. subscribers passed the Euroconsult 2002,operator, will launch in or whether proprietary subscriber base passed the 30 million mark, and is 35 17 million mark in late p. 270. 2003 its new iPSTAR 1 systems such as those 34 . Growth fastest growing segment in the satellite market. As FIGURE D Asia has embraced 41 expected to reach 46 million35 by end 2002 2001, allowing DSL to broadband Internet of Hughes Network has been strong in Asiaand could be faster in other indicates, Euroconsult estimates that 843 36 MHz transponders and 12.6 million user the Internet faster than replace cable modem A crop of 2-way satel-satellite. iPSTAR 1 will Systems or Gilat, will parts of the world, but this is hindered by the limited 40 , with demand terminals will be in service by 2010 any region in the world. service as the most lite service providershave a capacity of prevail. Much hangs in local access infrastructures left in place in many growth in all regions. By 2004, the Asia-Pacific started appearing in countries as a legacy of decades of monopolies. The widely used broadband 40 gigabytes per second the balance for some region is expected technology on the the late 1990s, usingto 14 gateways in the Canadian companies, widespread deregulation of the telecommunications Roll out of Ka band services will be gradual to account for 20% planet. A sharp rise in mostly Ku-band dishes:Asia-Pacific covering such as EMS Technologies industry will, over time, open up a lot more markets and cautious: 36 . of worldwide online the number of DSL SES Astranet; Hughes’China, Japan, India and Canada and Norsat, to competition, and facilitate the roll out of new Initial41 , allowing services service have already providers been to introducedtest the in spending, with subscribers in the Asia DirecWay, Intelsat’sAustralia, providing pay which have invested services, including broadband waters.Ku-band Ka-band transponders are also being in- Satellites will play a vital role in e-commerce revenues Pacific region sparked Broadband VSAT; TV and VOD services, heavily in the DVB-RCS stalled (often as test payloads) on more traditional delivering services: reaching US$1.6 T. the growth. In the StarBand CommunicationsIP voice telephony and standard. In November 37 , and this satellite systems, such as Telesat’s ANIK F2 and DSL and cable have become predominant Annual e-commerce United States, cable (which filed for Chapterhigh-speed Internet 2001, Eutelsat decided trend will continue, especially in developed countries. other systems by SES Astra (Astra 1K),42 Eutelsat, . The first limited growth from 2000 to modem subscribers 11 protection in theconnections. US ShinSat to buy DVB-RCS hub However it is estimated 20% of the population in Loral Skynet and others in Asia systems should come on stream in the 20003-04 2004 is estimated at continue to outnumber in May 2002), and others.expects 13 million and terminals from EMS North America will remain out of reach of traditional time frame. These will be key to developing future 140% annually. Internet DSL subscribers. At the New Skies’ NSS-6, tousers be by 2008, of which for use over Ku-band DSL and Cable modems services. Space currently38 . market demand. use is increasing beginning of 2002, launched by end 2002,600,000 customers FSS satellites. servesDirect only access about to the 5% Internet of the worldwide by satellites, demand on which strongly in China and there were 7.12 million will be Asia’s first will be in Thailand. satellite operators count to generate growth beyond Some barriers to Ka-band deployment must India and is progressing U.S. cable/Internet intra-regional Ku/Ka-bandIts biggest market, the trunking market, has progressed much slower be overcome: fast in Japan (currently subscribers and 4.6 satellite, and will coverhowever, is expected to in recent years than anticipated, owing to the delay Various factors hinder the deployment of commercial Asia’s leading Internet million DSL subscribers. India, China, the Middlebe China. ShinSat has 36 in the implementation of multimedia Ka Band satel- systems in Ka-band: the stigma of past failures 43 , limited standardization 44 and limited availa- country), South Korea, See “InStat:38 Broadband East, South Africa, already sold43 30% of lite systems. Yet, the potential for growth is very of LEO telephony systems, and especially the high bility of Ka-band customer premise equipment. Singapore, Hong Kong Still Growing”, Australia, and SouthiPSTAR’s capacity to good, because satellites can play an important role, price East Asia and North FIGURE C Technical issues involving bit error rates and queue and Taiwan. www.skyreport.com, companies in China, complementing terrestrial systems, as indicated management, for example, can seriously impact July 23, 2002. East Asia. Twelve super-Malaysia and India. by . IP (Intellectual Property)-over-satellite performance, See “The Development high-gain uplink spot although the satellite industry has managed to work of Broadband Access in “InStat: Broadband beams in the Ka-band Satellite 2-way access around the latency and TCP (Transmission Control OECD Countries”, OECD, Still Growing”, will facilitate high is more expensive than Protocol) performance issues with a number of October 29, 2001, p.4. www.skyreport.com, data-rate transmissionsterrestrial access. July 23, 2002. from antennas as small as 90 cm. SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 21 MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS

FIGURE D technical fixes. An investment community is assessing TRENDS IN SATELLITE MANUFACTURING 45 One example is TERMINALS AND TRANSPONDERS FOR DIRECT SATELLITE INTERNET ACCESS, 1997-2010 all this with a very limited appetite for risk. However, US prime contractors will continue to dominate the announcement in we can expect that broadband Internet access by the market: December 2001 that Subscribers satellite will be facilitated once this service is Of the 94 satellites on order for 2002-06, 62 were Hugues Network 1997 0.01 offered by most direct-to-home TV providers by contracted to US companies (Boeing with 28; SS Systems and Chicago- 1998 0.065 2005, leveraging the distribution and customer based AgriStar Global 1999 0.13 Loral with 21, Lockheed Martin with 12 and OSC support infrastructure already in place. 2000 0.348 with 4). European primes come in second at 24 Networks, Ltd. will 2005 2.715 (Alcatel with 16, Astrium with 7 and Alenia with 1). provide DIRECWAY® 2010 12.650 Initially, satellite operators are unlikely Obviously, these large companies will remain crucial two-way, high-speed 01234567891011121314 to provide services directly: customers for Canadian space suppliers. Yet, we satellite communications MILLIONS OF USER TERMINALS In general, satellite operators will act as carriers believe that Japanese companies also present services to the U.S. for the foreseeable future, reselling capacity to 46 Transponders opportunities in the mid-term. Japanese prime agricultural industry. 1997 1 service providers and letting the latter worry about contractors have not been internationally compe- 1998 11 providing services to consumers. But as new appli- titive, and both the Japanese government and In May 2002, the 1999 23 cations and services are developed45 . and demonstrated, industry realize they must work together diffe- presidents of Andean 2000 52 operators could become interested in providing rently if this is to change. A stagnant or declining investment consortium 2005 225 servicesDeveloping directly, orregions through will subsidiaries, not be left in out specia- of Japanese domestic market will force Japanese Andesat and Brazilian 2010 843 lizedsatellite market segments broadband: contractors to increasingly look to foreign markets satellite company, Star 050100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Asia will lead the pack in implementing46 and regionalother regions. sys- for business, and high domestic prices will require One, announced the 36-MHz EQUIVALENT TRANSPONDERS tems, followed by Latin America them to look abroad for qualified, cost effective 47launch of the Simon 47 . High volume transmissions will become a parts. This could present important opportunities Bolivar satellite towards Asia-Pacific region Central and Eastern Europe Latin America year-end 2004. Southern Asia Western Europe North America niche market: for Canadian industry. For all foreign prime con- Africa and Middle East In February 2002, Telesat Canada and Galaxy Enter- tractors, Canadian space companies will need to tainment (a Canadian film exhibitor) conducted a continue establishing long-term supply agreements For instance, in Source: Euroconsult demonstration of a new system that allows cinema January 2002, COMDEV exhibitors to receive content, such as feature films, Space signed a Long live events, advertising and other programming Term Supply Agreement directly from distributors in digital format via satel- with Boeing Satellite lite. Even more demanding would be gigabit class Systems, to supply requirements from some industrial sectors (e.g. the waveguide switches. offshore oil industry) to gather and distribute large volume data. One system aiming to serve this niche market is Cascade, proposed by MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 23 umbrella of the ISRO-owned Antrix Corporation, that MARKET TRENDSthese capabilities will be marketed abroad. All this MARKET TRENDS could lead to attractive opportunities for Canadian companies, which could supply to these industries for use in their domestic markets, perhaps paving

the way for later opportunities when and if these On September 11, 2001, 48 In March 2002, US prime contractors will continue to benefit 50 52 54 ”new stage“, experts 59 organizations become competitive internationally. The US Navy is planning the attack on the World In April 2002, EMS COMSAT International say”, Xinhua news Boeing Space and from significant US DOD contracts: the Mobile User Objective Technologies announced originally was a 48 Trade Center knocked , Advanced agency, Beijing, Communications Examples include the Wideband Gap Filler System (MUOS) program, a contract to supply component of COMSAT 49 and MUOS systems 50 . More modernization pro- Manufacturing overcapacity in US and Europe out 14 cellular base EHF 16 September 2001. received US$336.4 M 51 grams can be expected , including as a result of will remain a problem: to provide global stations, effectively PDT-100 packet data Corporation, which in funding from the 52 57 the events of September 11, 2001 . Because of their Euroconsult estimates that market demand will communications to all crippling terrestrial satellite terminals to Lockheed Martin US Air Force to build In November 2001, a military nature, it is not easy for Canadian space justify building, at most, 200 GEO satellites in the U.S. forces in such communications networks. the U.S. government. acquired in 2000 Russian official noted the first two satellites suppliers to get sub-contracts in these projects, but 2001-2010 period, while existing capacity would hard-to-reach places as The multi-year contract, through its Lockheed 53 , But satellite systems in the Wideband that Russia currently there are exceptions, as 54demonstrated by COM DEV allow the main prime contractors to build 400-490 thick jungles, urban for 1,200 units per year, Martin Global EMS Technologies Canadaand other companies. were unaffected and Gapfiller Satellite has 30 unoccupied satellites, or 2.5 times the demand canyons, mountainous offered one of the first represents the first sale Telecommunications system. The contract orbital positions in GEO, Will Loral have to merge? terrain or at sea. The links. Budgets for of the EMS PDT-100 to a unit. When Lockheed also includes long-lead 55 and intends to launch We can expect Loral to merge with another US prime Navy is expected to homeland defense have military customer. Martin determined it 55 . satellites to maintain material for a third select two teams for an would exit the global contractor, probably Lockheed Martin 58 . This could be increased, and depart- satellite. With all In June 2002, those. In a related initial 14-month design ments across the US are telecommunications Emerging industrial players have high ambitions: aggravated by the plans of some primes to further transaction, the state options exercised, the 56 Lockheed Martin Corp. , Russia and India, and later on period. A final multi- looking at how they can services business in Industries in China expand the capacity of their plants in the next few contract for up to six and Loral Space & company Space in South Korea and Brazil, could present opportu- billion dollar production keep their emergency December 2001, it years. As business remains slow for at least the Communications (GPKS) satellites has a total nities for Canadian industry, initially in their domestic contract is expected to Communications indicated it would next 1-2 years, this will continue to make it diffi- responders better 49potential value of announced they are has contracted with markets, and perhaps abroad later on. China’s space be awarded late 2003. connected. Satellite divest itself of certain cult for Canadian space suppliers to convince the Krunichev the cons- US$1.3 B. industrial capacity is folded into an umbrella called Initial operational considering joining their telecommunications already vertically integrated primes (at once their based systems can be commercial satellite truction and launch the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corpora- capability for the part of the solution. 56 assets, including customers and often their competitors) to “buy” of one small satellite In November, the tion (CASC). CASC and its components are responsible 51 satellite is expected in operations to better COMSAT International. rather than “make”. See “Satellite Techno- U.S. Air Force awarded compete with Boeing. based on the Dialog for the production of all launchers, satellites and early 2008, with full logy Comes of Age in Lockheed Martin Space series, weighing 500 kg other systems in China. Long March launchers have capability by 2013. Public Safety”, Wireless Can a prime contractor also be a service provider? 53 Systems and TRW Space In September 2001, and equipped with ten been marketed globally for years, and CASC has 59 . Yet, other prime Future Magazine, July- Lockheed Martin said a resounding no in May 2002 to 12 transponders. EMS & Electronics a contract According to the the Chinese government 58 indicated its intention to move, over the medium contractors have not rushed to follow suit. Boeing August 2002. when it announced it had sold an 81% stake in Technologies Canada will for up to US$2.7 B USAF, the U.S. military announced that China term, to the marketing of its satellites and sub- Satellite and Communications’ business model is in COMSAT International to World Data manufacture the payload to begin the System communications satel- would launch 35 satel- systems globally. Russia’s space industry has been fact oriented towards providing more value added In May 2002, COM DEV for the satellite. Development and lite system and the lites, presumably in battered by the break-up of the USSR and the ensuing solutions using space infrastructure, to address Europe won a contract Demonstration phase of small satellite receivers the DFH class, in the sustained budget crunch. Still, some organizations, niche (but large) requirements such as air traffic valued at US$9.5 M Euroconsult 2002, the Advanced Extremely 57 used by American forces 2001-2006 timeframe, often sustained through foreign joint ventures, have. India management, broadband connectivity to aircraft. from TRW Inc. to supply p. 89. High Frequency to talk with each other and several of those maintainedhas been impressive determined technical to develop capabilities, its internal and Alcatel and Astrium, chastened as they are by the the Beam Select Switch (Advanced EHF) are in critical need of are expected to be an improvingtechnological budg infrastructureetary situation for in itsthe own country domestic failures or delays in their constellations plans, have (BSS) subsystem for the Program, the next overhaul to enable U.S. communications will leadprogram, to new and programs we can inexpect the n overear term time, under the nevertheless maintained an active watch towards first two satellites of generation of global, troops to fight the war satellites for domestic future opportunities. the AEHF program. highly secure, survivable on terrorism – See AWST, and regional requirements. Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 25 SATELLITEcommunications system COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS January 21, 2002. See “China’s space for all services of the exploration enters Department of Defense. WHAT TO EXPECT WHAT TO EXPECT ITARs will remain an irritant in dealing with help Canadian suppliers much – prime contractors IN THE NEXT FEW YEARSUS manufacturers: IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS will continue to require suppliers to cover any R&D Despite best efforts on the part of the Canadian and to have already flight proven any new tech- Government (through DFAIT), and despite pending The Role of Satellites in Serving nologies. This argues for continued and increased legislation in the US Congress to return licensing Communications Needs support from the Canadian government. authority for commercial satellites to the Commerce The global population is growing fast 60 WHAT TO EXPECT “Chute brutale du Department, ITARs continue to cover almost all 63 Intelsat and Inmarsat IN THE NEXT FEWmarché YEARS des sitcoms”, Consolidation and vertical integration among are required by US satellite related exchanges. As experience with ITARs 65 , and the The commercial satelliteAir market& Cosmos, will 8 remainmars satellite operators: legislation to offer grows on both sides of the border, the delays asso- networked global economy will require increasing depressed for a few years:2002, pp. 32-3. SES’ acquisition of GE Americom in 2001, which gives around 20% of their ciated with TAAs should be reduced. Still, we can connectivity. The question is: what role will satel- 61 Euroconsult predicts that the market will not reach it access to key markets in the US and the Americas, capital to the public expect that such delays will, in some cases, continue lites play in serving these needs? A few prognostics: could point the way to more mergers. The high capi- the levels set in the late “Global1990s untilTrends at 2015 least 2006, to close off opportunities for Canadian companies by end 2002. Eutelsat possibly longer. The timing– A dialogueand scope about of the the recovery tal costs involved and the continued effects of WTO is required by the to respond in a timely way to US opportunities, In relation to trunking and backhaul services: will depend on how fastfuture”, new applicationsCIA, December such as market liberalization and the ensuing benefits of European Commission and in a reverse scenario also prevent US companies We can expect satellites to maintain an important broadband and digital radio2000. develop. See www .odci.gov/An average of scale, as well as regulatory requirements, encourage to offer 30% of its from bidding on Canadian or foreign opportunities, role in the delivery of content for the next several 20 commercial satellitescia/ willpublications/ be launched per year this 64shares by July 2003. to the detriment of all. Already, agencies and compa- years. This is because, even if under-sea cables carry 62 to 2010. It is predictedglobaltrends2015. that total industry sales and nies in Canada, Europe and elsewhere have taken most transatlantic traffic, satellites are essential to employment will continue to decrease until mid- SES Global has taken measures to avoid future problems in sourcing from 63 . In addition, rather than full acquisitions, carry traffic on many other routes. In the long term, 2003, when the market willIn March start 2002,rebounding. Soft holdings in both the US, including deciding to manufacture critical we could also see organisations acquiring small the role of satellites could be marginalized as addi- commercial demand willIntelsat be partially raised offset a total by growing Netsystem.com and components and even whole satellite sub-systems equity stakes in partners operating in other parts tional fiber cables are laid on high traffic routes. government needs, especiallyof US$1 security B in new related credit in the 64 . Telesat Canada, the world’s Kokua Communications 60 . domestically or finding alternate non US suppliers. of the value chain wake of the events of Septemberfacilities from 11, a 2001. Govern- most experienced operator, remains 100% owned Ltd, while Eutelsat has In relation to local access services: At present, ments could require as manysyndicate as 40 of satelliteslenders per year by conglomerate Bell Canada Entreprises (BCE). While invested in TV Files. The US market for telecommunications services Better financing outlook for some satellite satellites are the only solution to provide “last mile” in LEO and MEO, and 7-12arranged satellites by Salomon per year in GEO Telesat has achieved tremendous success in consoli- Inmarsat has also and equipment will remain predominant, but communications operators: services to an estimated 20% of customers who are Smith Barney. PanAmSat dating its Canadian domestic market base in an strengthened its vertical others will grow faster: After the current storm over the telecommunications not within reach of cable or other terrestrial systems. raised US$2.05 B of era of deregulation and in expanding its base in 65positioning by acquiring The US will be followed by Europe and other G-7 industry meltdown and corporate accounting subsides This role for satellites in accessing remote regions debt in February 2002. the US and Latin America, limited access to capital applications developers countries. But other regions will develop fast. Among in the next 1-2 years, investors are likely to be will remain into the future. At this time, satellites could be problematic in its core market (the Ame- such as Rydex Industries. developing countries, India will remain in the fore- impressed by the relatively strong balance sheets are not price competitive in providing telephony or ricas), which is already dominated by much larger front in developing information technology, led by of FSS and broadcasting satellite operators. These data services to customers in urban centers, but this players, also making it very difficult to access markets World population the growing class of high-tech workers and entre- operators should find it easier to secure financing could change. We can expect that, perhaps through 62 in other regions. For this reason and also to raise in 2015 will be 7.2 B, preneurs. China will lead the developing world in the subsidization of user equipment by service and affordable launch insurance. This will not apply cash more generally, BCE announced in January up from 6.1 B in the utilizing information technology, with urban areas providers (adoption of the cellular phone and DBS to mobile or broadband project promoters, at least 2002 it was seeking an investor for Telesat Canada year 2000. Most growth ahead of the countryside. Latin America’s Internet models), overall cost to consumers could be attrac- in the near and medium term, as financiers have been as part of its plan to sell CA$4.5 B in assets. will be in developing market will grow exponentially, with Argentina, tive enough to provide a real alternative to terrestrial 61 . badly burned by several project failures. Generally, 66 . nations. See “Global Mexico, and Brazil getting the greatest benefits systems, at least in niche markets (e.g. corporate an improvement in the financing market will not Trends 2015 because of larger telecommunications companies, segment) requiring the key benefits of satellites – A dialogue about bigger markets, and higher international investment (instant regional or global reach, and high bandwidth the future”, CIA, capacity). However, in North America at least, the December 2000. challenge will be significant for satellites given the See www.odci.gov/ existing overGlobal capacity Space of fiber Sector lines in k eyMarket markets Trends And Drivers 27 SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS cia/publications/ globaltrends2015. CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS

Task Force tabled its recommendations to the Govern- In recent years, there has been recognition at senior The author would like to acknowledge the partici- ment of Canada on how best to make high-speed levels of the Federal government of the importance pation of Mr. Jack Rigley of the Communications broadband Internet services available to all Canadian of an advanced telecommunications infrastructure Research Centre in the preparation of this chapter. communities by the year 2004. Concerning the in ensuring a knowledge - based economy. Satellites 66 Although available In the longer term, probable marginalization of transport link, their report recognized that “…solu- can and do play a major role in supporting this – data is incomplete, a satellites for trunking and local access in developed tions will involve a mix of …fiber, wireless and Canada can only achieve its goal of becoming the June 2001 study by countries: The progress of fiber optic submarine and satellite technologies…“. Concerning local access, most connected nation by exploiting space-based Salomon Smith Barney terrestrial networks has been very rapid, and over the report stated that “…next generation broadband technology. All these factors argue in favor of a reported that only 5% of time it is possible that these could dislodge satel- two-way multimedia satellites, expected to be avai- sustained partnership between the Government and the U.S. fiber networks lites from the long haul transport markets and last Stéphane Lessard lable over the next three to four years, promise industry, involving the development of advanced was being used. See mile access in the most developed regions of the External Relations to improve access by several orders of magnitude communications technologies and Government acting, Simon Romero, “Shining world. Still, the best strategy is probably for satellite Canadian Space Agency compared to today’s service …at comparable prices.” where possible, as anchor tenant for new services. Future of Fiber Optics operators to pursue the current course, i.e. instead Tel: (450) 926-4364 Loses Glimmer”, The of attempting to compete head-on against esta- Canadian space companies have developed impressive Fax: (450) 926-4362 New York Times, June blished terrestrial services, they are concentrating and globally competitive competencies in some niche 18, 2001. It is unclear on satellite’s intrinsic advantages in broadcasting, Email: [email protected] areas of satellite communications. This has allowed whether this figure bridging the digital divide by providing service to them to be very successful in the home and export takes into account the rural areas and complementing terrestrial services markets. In fact, 63% of the total 2000 revenues significant “dark” or through techniques such as multicasting. In these of CA$1.4 B were in Telecommunications. Telecom- unused fiber that was areas, the demand for satellite services is strong and munications revenues for 2001 are again strong, laid alongside the stillCONCLUSIONS growing, and at a faster rate than basic services. representing a large percentage of overall industry operational (or “lit”) Satellite telecommunications is only one of the revenues. As such, Satellite communications continues fiber in many US markets. elements of a global infrastructure driven by the to be considered the cornerstone of the Canadian This means that the ultimate need to satisfy the end user and to provide space industry at large. But the viability of the costs of building benefits to society as a whole. Yet in Canada satel- Canadian industry is being threatened. Government terrestrial fiber lites play an especially crucial role. Because of support in the US, Europe, Japan and elsewhere far connections across Canada’s geography, satellites are essential to deliver outstrips the support available to Canadian compa- the major US markets on the Federal policy of guaranteeing basic telecom- nies, aside from the larger domestic markets, leading (much the same can be munications services to all Canadians, regardless of to an uneven playing field. said of European and location. This is done through Telesat Canada’s fleet other markets) has of Anik satellites, which provide telephony, data largely been sunk, and and broadcasting services in Canada and regionally. can now be amortized The role of satellites also extends to broadband over time. Given some of services. In June 2001, the National Broadband the telcos bankruptcies now taking place, new operators could be taking over these networks on SATELLITEthe cheap, improving COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 29 their competitive position vis-à-vis satellite operators. table of contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 32

MARKET CHARACTERISTICS 32

MAJOR EVENTS OF 2001-2002 42

MARKET TRENDS 48

Prepared by: WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS 55

Stéphane Lessard CONCLUSIONS 58 External Relations APPENDICES 60

EARTH OBSERVATION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MARKET CHARACTERISTICS ASPRS Forecast.

1 • Convergence of EO and other technologies, is FIGURE A 1 American Society EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 fuelling mergers and acquisitions REMOTE SENSING INDUSTRY DEFINITION for Photogrammetry The global satellite remote sensing industry is at •The data market is becoming split between the the stage of semi-commercialization. Though still and Remote Sensing expensive high end and the inexpensive low end Platforms characterized by heavy government intervention, the (ASPRS), “The 10-Year • Data usage will change in the future, and SAR & Sensors industry is maturing and the market is becoming usage will double Remote Sensing more commercial. Governments remain eager to •There will be a move towards smaller EO satellites Industry Forecast”, privatize and commercialize remote sensing activi- Phase 1 Data flying in formation Collection Study for NASA, ties,often through creative partnerships with the •The value-added industry is becoming private sector, and—while still protecting national Reported at the increasingly specialized security interests—to loosen the regulatory regimes Data ASPRS-ACSM-FIG • Data policies will give more room to distributing Processing governing the industry. images at marginal cost for research Conference, April 2002 Support Industry •Industrial consolidation will increase and a Elements Intermediaries (hereinafter “ASPRS The industry is young and growing quickly. Techno- shakeout can be expected • Hardware Business • VARs Forecast”). logies on the satellite, ground, and data processing • Privatization and commercialization will continue • Software Segments • Consultants and distribution sides of the business are still • Etc. • Etc. •The critical success factors will increasingly be evolving rapidly. More and more countries and those of more mature industries companies are entering the field, promising to • Controls on access to EO data will become End-User Phase 2 increase competition, improve remote sensing multilateralMARKET CHARACTERISTICS products and services, decrease prices—and precipitate a shakeout in the industry. A MULTI-TIERED INDUSTRY:

1 As indicated in FIGURE A , the remote sensing emphasis placed by Radarsat International Inc. (RSI) Some observations stemming from the early The major market trends in the space remote sensing industry is divided into several tiers: sensors (space on providing customized solutions to customers, in maturity of the sector are: industry are the following: and others), ground segment (reception, processing, addition to selling Radarsat and other imagery. • Fast, early growth: According to a recent major •The market is growing quickly, though estimates archiving, distribution), supporting business study commissioned by NASA, the overall com- of the overall market size and rate of growth vary segments (hardware and software), value-added The EO industry is still in the earliest stages mercialremote sensing market (space and aerial) • Commercial observation business models are companies, all delivering information to end users. of the Industry Life FIGURECycle andB still only semi- is growing at about 10%-13% per year, a healthy changing towards operational services commercial: illustrates the Satellite rate perhaps attributable2. This in growthpart to isthe propelled effects by a growing • Demands are moving from descriptive to predictive The downstream part of the EO industry is the Remote Sensing Industry Life Cycle through the of 9/11 recognition of the major business and public good information products most lucrative: The money and the growth are in Kondriatieff/Shumpeter S-Curve: benefits from using EO information. This, in turn, • Real opportunities in coastal monitoring will exist information services and not in remote sensing data attracts capital and more and more entrants into for Canadian companies sales or building satellites. This is true also for • Existing satellites do not adequately address other space sectors. This explains the increased coastal zone problems • Better sensors and better access networks Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 33 EARTH OBSERVATIONand interpretative software are coming into the marketplace MARKET CHARACTERISTICS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

continue with Radarsat 3, now in planning. Other countries are closely watching the Canadian model especially for military uses, and ensures local and adapting it to their needs, as evidenced by reception for near-real time applications. Such FIGURE B the German government’s partnership with Astrium a situation contributes to the growing data 3 J.A. MacDonald, SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING INDUSTRY LIFE CYCLE in TerraSAR X-Band and with RapidEye AG in the glut, but opens up opportunities for Canadian (KONDRIATIEFF/SHUMPETER LONG-WAVE/S-CURVE) optical EO system of the same name. Such public- Presentation at the companies selling ground infrastructure and private partnerships involve several complexities, ImageOne Conference, providing training and interpretative software. in particular those related to data policies and Tokyo, July 2002. Government • Slow transition from a technology push to a Investment REMOTE SENSING INDUSTRY security controls which enable a solid business market pull emphasis in the development of Curve IV. Maturity Phase model while protecting national security interests. missions: Historically, space agencies developed • Most government applications relate to missions, and data and services were then propo- environment and security sed to the market (increasingly through private III. Mature Growth Phase 3: Monitoring climate companies) with the hope of covering part of change, military reconnaissance, resource mana- the investments. This is slowly changing; space INDUSTRY gement, ocean monitoring and emergency response agencies have been increasingly ensuring that GROWTH AND I. Introduction are some of the most important applications for user demand will justify the cost of missions, espe- Phase II. Early Growth Phase MATURATION governments world wide. In a nutshell, they relate cially in the context of so-called public-private PROFILE to the environment and to “security” writ large partnerships where the private sector shoulders Source: Canadian Space Agency, 2001 (civil and military), which should therefore be part of the cost and risk and where commercial the areas where Canadian EO companies distribution is a key driver. the market. It is during the Early Growth phase systems, and the applications and user-areas concentrate in developing information solutions. • A gap exists between EO data providers and that government investment in a technology is remain too fragmented and highly specialized This leads one to conclude that the European users: Hindering the development of a commercial at its highest levels, which is certainly the case to generate a low enough cost to revenue ratio. Global Monitoring of the Environment and Security market are two key factors: the lack of under- for Earth observation-related technologies. And This is true in Canada, Europe and Asia, and even (GMES) initiative, although it deals with civil standing on the part of potential users as to it is usually at the end of the Early Growth phase in parts of the US industry (e.g. Landsat). security only, is well targeted. the benefits of EO data products, and most that the technology starts to undergo design stan- • Governments and industries seek to develop • Many countries want their national EO systems: importantly, the existence of a gap between the dardization, a development which propels the innovative public-private partnerships: Several countries continue to want their own EO data providers (government agencies or their industry into the Mature Growth phase. This has Governments in many countries are hoping to satellites and ground infrastructures, and continue commercial agents) and the user communities. not yet happened for Earth observation. encourage and accelerate the gradual privati- to support their EO industries through technology Users do not care about data, or even perhaps • The remote sensing business model is still zation and commercialization of the EO sector. development, privileged purchasing agreements, about information products; they want solutions driven by governments: Almost all remote sensing In Canada, whereas Radarsat 1 was almost all and public-private partnerships. They do so despite to their needs and problems, and they do not satellites are defined, developed and launched by financed through public funds and is operated by growing international coordination, both bilate- want to know where the information comes from. governments or by private companies relying hea- the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), Radarsat 2 ral and multi-lateral (through CEOS, the Committee This creates wide open opportunities for compa- vily on governmental support. A key reason is involves a significant investment from, and the on Earth Observation Satellites), and the increas- nies able to provide complete solutions, and that, on the demand side, there simply has not satellite will be owned and operated by, the ing potential for governments to have their operational services, to customers. been sufficient growth in the number of users Canadian prime contractor MacDonald Dettwiler requirements for EO services satisfied commercially. to pay for the cost of developing and operating and Associates (MDA). This trend is expected to This ensures exclusive and secure access to data, EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 35 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS ASPRS Forecast.

FIGURE C 4 FIGURE D 6 4 ASPRS Forecast. 6 COMMERCIAL COMPANY SIZE SPATIAL RESOLUTION: COMPARISON OF USERS VS NEED (ALL SECTORS)

5 But they still rely Number of responses Need Use on governments as 90 25% Academic Responses: 551 Use — 410 Need the main markets: 80 20% according to the ASPRS 70 15% Note: study, Government 60 10% 50 1) This is a fragmented industry. 5% agencies account for 40 2) Smaller companies are in the 0% majority: about two-thirds of 30 • about 20% of respondents estimated 25% Commercial Responses: 788 Use — 506 Need expected revenues in 20 at 10 or less employees 10 • about 55% of respondents 20% the US through 2006. estimated at under 100 employees 0 15% • over 80% of respondents estimated 10% 1-10 11-100 101-500 501-1000 1001-5000 Over 5000 at under 500 employees Estimated number of employees in company 5% 0%

25% Government Responses: 870 Use — 730 Need • The US market exhibits the most privatization: • The industry is still very fragmented: The EO 20% In the United States, private companies involved industry generally consists of very few larger 15% in the commercial optical remote sensing business 10% companies and numerous relatively small players. (Space Imaging, Digital Globe, Orbimage) financed 5% This situation can be found in the US (see FIGURE C 4) and in Canada, where, alongside all business costs from private sources 5. But 0%

MDA and its subsidiaries (chief among them even there, the US EO industry strongly benefits 6 inches 1-3 1 2-3 4 10 20 30 60 100 >100 or less feet meter meter meter meter meter meter meter meter meter Radarsat International, or RSI), there are approxi- from government intervention upstream (through mately 150 other small and medium sized technology development paid for by the govern- companies, often with few employees other ment), downstream (through promises of than their founders. Since many commercial government data buys to stimulate growth of opportunities need to be pursued around the data suppliers), and via regulatory support.

globe, involving significant resources for project Note: identification and development, it can be argued • Academic and Government sectors have similar profiles that small size and under-capitalization act as • Therre is a distinct difference in the 30 meter range between Commercial and the Academic/Government sectors a detriment to growth. • Commercial has the largest fall-off at 1 meter resolution (from Use to Need) • Commercial Use and Needs tend toward higher resolutions, and are potentially less price sensitive. Academic and Government tend toward lower resolutions. • Government Needs lean toward the 1-3 feet range EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 37 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS ASPRS Forecast.

ASPRS Forecast.

FIGURE E 7 FIGURE F 8 7 GEO-LOCATION ACCURACY: USE VS NEED (ALL SECTORS) RELIANCE ON SOURCES OF DATA BY SECTOR ASPRS Forecast.

8 Academic Commercial Government ASPRS Forecast. Need Use 20% 9 25% Academic Responses: 285 Use — 240 Need 15%

20% 10% 10 15% 5% 10% 0% Note: 5% Commercial Commercial Regional, Federal Data Developed Provided Academic Service • Government Agencies (FSL) provide about 30% of the data to each Sector. 0% Purchase Lisence State, Government Exchange Internally by Reserch Providers •Academic sector gets about 50% of its data from other Academics and GovernmentLocal Ag… Agencies combined and about 25% Consultants Instit… from commercial sources (Commercial Purchase and License; Consultants; Service Provisers). Commercial Responses: 570 Use — 377 Need 25% •The Commercial and Government Sectors get about 40% of their data from commercial sources. 20% •The largest single source for all the Sectors is the Federal Government. 15% 10% 5% 0% Civilian and military users also have different 25% Government Responses: 647 Use — 537 Need requirements: The difference is explained in Demand varies among government, industrial 20% . 15% and academic users: Some of the key parameters 10% of geospatial data are spatial resolution and geo- FIGURE G Market drivers and inhibitors have variable 5% location accuracy. The ASPRS study offers interesting 6 and 7 about importance over time: 0% FIGURE D FIGURE E data in 9 the usage as compared to actual need for each factor, FIGURE H and 6 inches 6-18 19-35 3-5 6-15 16-30 31-100 >100 10 from the ASPRS study shows the or less inches inches feet feet feet feet feet among academic, commercial and government FIGURE I various factors affecting market success, and users. This US data probably finds a close parallel their relative impact over time. As indicated in Note: in Canada and elsewhere. • All sectors show a mismatch in what is Needed versus what is in Use. this analysis, barriers to growth appear to be FIGURE F 8 shows that the sources of data can • All sectors indicate an unfilled Need of Geo-Location Accuracy at levels of less than three feet. funding, education, training, and awareness and • The Commercial and Government sectors have pronounced Needs for Geo-Location accuracy at levels of less than six inches. vary significantly to serve the needs of the aca- not available technology. • Academic and Government sectors indicate a Need for increased accuracy at three feet and less. demic, commercial and government sectors in the United States (also likely applicable to Canada and other regions).

EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 39 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

FIGURE G FIGURE H 9 11 TRENDS AND REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE MARKET DRIVERS OPPORTUNITIES

IN MARINE AND National Defence Civilian Drivers Impact

FRESHWATER REMOTE • Autonomy • Reasonable pricing Near Term Mid term Far Term Analysis (1-2 yrs.) (3-4 yrs.) (5-7 yrs.) SENSING TECHNOLOGY, • Confidentiality • Reasonable availability Built-in Demand High High High M, M, M Borstad & Associates, • Real-time availability • Ease of use Development of Marketplace Medium High High Agree Study performed for • Frequent revisit the CSA, May 2002 Increased Temporal Resolution Medium Medium High L, L, M • Imaging agility (as # of Satellites increase, # of (“Borstad 2002 Study”). opportunities for imagery increase Source: CSA, External Relations, 2002 More Area Coverage per Mission Medium Medium High M, M, M

Customer Anticipation of Medium Medium Medium M, M, L • Lack of standardization and inter-operability in New Products OTHER INHIBITORS 11 the software tools used by users, complicating TO GLOBAL MARKET SUCCESS Demand for Surveillance & Change Medium Medium Medium Agree the life of customers. Monitoring These include: • Economic and political stability of countries Ground Stations in Host Countries Low Medium High L, L, M • Cost of data and data products: For Radarsat and representing markets of interest. other high resolution commercial systems, the cost Increased Aerial and Satellite Data Low Medium High Agree •Availability of EO data on a non-commercial basis, of satellite data can be a large fraction of a small Availability = lower cost from space agencies (e.g. NASA’s project where many images are Given these characteristics, Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2001 Landsat, ESA’s ERS,) whose data required. Similarly, the cost of government involvement policies call for data to be information products (from in the Earth observation available at nominal cost. operated satellite systems, that gap has narrowed and Mapping Agency (NIMA) has been directed by Value Added Resellers and industry is still required, in considerably to the point where fine resolutions can the US Congress to procure greater quantities of consultants) is high when each terms of strategic technology Dual-use nature of Earth obser- attain 0.5 meter for optical systems and 3 meters data commercially. In recognition of these capa- project is a custom job invol- development and market vation satellites: In the early days or better for radar systems (e.g. Radarsat 2; Ger- bilities and the synergies to be obtained from the ving many hours of labour. education and awareness of satellite remote sensing, there many’s TerraSAR X Band). As an indication of the joint management and funding of satellite systems, •The lack of widespread opera- (technology demonstration was a big difference between the military potential of EO satellites, US and other some European countries are developing hybrid tional use by the Canadian and user education). But capabilities of civilian and military defence departments have become large users of civilian/defence systems (e.g. the French-Italian Federal and provincial industry must also close the EO/meteorological satellites, all commercial data. In fact, the US National Imagery Cosmo-Skymed/Pléiades system). governments: Canadian information gap to user of which were owned and operated companies need this kind of communities, to provide by governments anyway. With the strong endorsement for use in transparent solutions advent of privately owned and international marketing. to problems. EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 41 MAJOR EVENTS MAJOR EVENTS OF 2001-2002 In June 2001, the most complete view ever assem- SWARM,OF a 2001-2002constellation of small satellites to study bled of the world’s air pollution churning through the dynamics of the Earth’s magnetic field and its the atmosphere was produced by NASA’s Terra space- interactions with the Earth system. craft. This will allow scientists to identify the major sources of air pollution and to track its destination. In July 2002, the Geostationary Operational Envi- FIGURE I 10 The new global air pollution monitor onboard ronmental Satellite (GOES), an advanced weather ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE MARKET RESTRAINTS Terra is Canada’s Measurements of Pollution in the satellite capable of tracking dangerous storms in Restraints Impact Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument. the atmosphere -- as well as storms on the sun – was launched by the United States. Near Term Mid term Far Term Analysis (1-2 yrs.) (3-4 yrs.) (5-7 yrs.) In February 2002, ESA signed a 70 M € contract with Astrium for the environmental and climate satellite In August 2002, a US$4.5 B contract was awarded Launch Slippage High High High Agree CryoSat. The satellite is planned for an April 2004 by NASA, NOAA and US DOD to TRW Company to Lack of closeness to end-user High High Medium Agree launch into a polar orbit and will measure changes build and deploy the United States future environ- Distribution Infrastructure Medium Medium Medium M, M, L in the thickness of ice sheets and polar ocean sea- mental satellite system. The contract is for the New & Varied Customers Require Medium Medium Medium H, H, M ice cover with unprecedented accuracy for at least Acquisition and Operations (A&O) phase of the Changes to Marketing Strategies three years after launch. National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Government Involvement in Medium Medium Low ?? 9/11 Satellite System (NPOESS). NPOESS will combine DisseminationCollection, Processing and In March 2002, NASA, in partnership with the United the nation’s military and civilian environmental States Geological Survey, selected proposals from satellite programs into a single national system Restraints on Spatial Resolution Medium Low Low ?? 9/11 Resource 21 and DigitalGlobe for further develop- that will significantly improve weather forecasting Problems Related to Low Low Low M, H, H ment.The aim is to provide the US government with and climate prediction. Weather/Climate Conditions Landsat-type data into the future. Also in August 2002, the World Summit on Sustai- Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2001 In April 2002, the German government agreed to nable Development in Johannesburgh, South Africa, finance a high-resolution X-band radar satellite to be emphasized the useful role of remote sensing Restrictions and regulations surrounding the col- MAJOR EVENTS OF 2001-2002 built by Astrium and operated mainly for commercial satellites in providing crucial data and information lection, processing, and dissemination of remotely purposes, called TerraSAR. for sustainable development and climate change sensed data and information: Because of the dual- CIVIL AND SCIENTIFIC research. And Eumetsat launched that same month use nature of EO satellites and the high capabilities REMOTE SENSING In May 2002, Spot-5 was launched by Ariane–4 the first satellite of its Meteosat Next Generation of civilian systems, there are concerns about the The Charter on Space and Major Disasters (to which from Kourou. (MSG-1) series. military potential of EO data should it fall into the CSA is a founding signatory) was activated 24 times wrong hands. The United States has implemented since November 2000, including 4 times by Canada. In May 2002, as part of the second cycle of the Earth The European Union and ESA made progress in both “shutter control” and “state specific limitations” In all, 81 Radarsat images were provided by CSA Explorer Opportunity Missions, ESA selected three defining the GMES program, with the first GMES on data dissemination. Concerns expressed by the (46 in Standard mode, 23 in Fine mode and 12 in proposals to enter feasibility study: ACE+, an Atmos- Steering Committee and Expert Forum taking place US government about the future capabilities of Wide mode). The Indian Space Research Organization phere and Climate-Explorer; EGPM, the European in March 2002. The goal set by ESA and the EU is Radarsat 2 (3 meter resolution in fine mode) caused (ISRO) acceded to the Charter in January 2002. contribution to Global Precipitation Mission, and the Canadian and US governments to conclude an The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admi- access control agreement (dealing with shutter nistration (NOAA) has also joined. control and priority access) in 1999. EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 43 MAJOR EVENTS MAJOR EVENTS

OF 2001-2002 In September 2001, Orbital SciencesOF Corporation 2001-2002On May 30, 2002, Space Imaging announced a announced that the launch of its Taurus rocket, revamped Carterra Online service Imagery and Geospatial System (USIGS). The USIGS which was carrying the OrbView-4 satellite for Enterprise is a total systems architecture designed ORBIMAGE and the QuikTOMS satellite for NASA, did to improve NIMA’s ability to task, process, evaluate not achieve the intended orbit, leading to failure to complete an interim definition phase by 2003 and disseminate information. The contracts are of the two missions. ORBIMAGE had previously won 12 See carterraonline. and bring into operational service by 2008 an auto- 12 , which offers valued at US$29 M each and represent the second a contract from NASA Stennis Space Center to supply spaceimaging.com nomous European global monitoring capability for web access to a map-accurate and GPS verified phase of NIMA’s USIGS pre-acquisition activities. up to US$6 M in imagery from the 200-band hypers- environmental and security purposes. digital database for road systems in 49 US states. The deliverables from these contracts will support pectral camera on its OrbView-4 satellite. This includes streets, administrative boundaries the Government’s Milestone B decision to proceed The China-Brazil Earth Resource Satellite (CBERS-1) and location information for destinations such as with the USIGS modernization program. In January 2002, Space Imaging started offering went past its nominal life time; CBERS-2 is to be hospitals, fire stations and more. one-meter resolution, stereo imagery from its launched later in 2002. The Japanese government continued to develop its IKONOS satellite to commercial customers. These In May 2002, SPOT Image Corporation and Iunctus Data Gathering System, a set of 4 satellites (2 optical, products were previously offered only to govern- More countries confirmed their plans to develop EO Geomatics Corporation signed a channel partner- 2 radar) for regional observation requirements. The ment customers. missions and plans, including South Korea, Nigeria ship contract under which Iunctus has the exclusive first satellites are set for launch in 2003. and Vietnam. rights to sell SPOT satellite products and services In March 2002, Orbital Imaging Corp. filed for Chap- MILITARY REMOTE SENSING to all Canadian customers. ter 11 reorganization in the United States. The US government has embarked on a program to In September 2002, the US National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) announced the creation of develop the next generation of spy satellites that In May 2002, DigitalGlobe announced plans for its a National Center for Geospatial Intelligence Standards In April 2002, ImageSat International (based in are being built now and will start going into orbit next-generation M5 constellation consisting of four (NCGIS). The NCGIS will address standards issues Israel) announced the activation of a new ground in 2005. The estimated 20-year price tag is US $25 B, satellites, each of which will collect five-meter reso- relevant to enabling technologies, data architecture, receiving station in Gatineau, Québec. This ground making this program the most expensive venture ever lution multispectral data over a 185 kilometer-wide and software tools as NIMA moves toward imple- receiving station, the Company’s first in North Ame- mounted by US intelligence services. In October area. Images will provide visible, near-infrared and menting a comprehensive, enterprise-wide standards rica, will enable real-time downloading of ImageSat’s 2001, Russia also announced plans to launch a short wave-infrared spectral ranges. The first M5 management policy for the National System for high resolution EROS electro-optical images taken number of intelligence spacecraft in the near future. satellite is scheduled to be operational in the first Geospatial Intelligence (NSGI). of about half of the continent. quarter of 2006, and all four by the third quarter In September 2001, Germany announced its decision COMMERCIAL EVENTS of 2007. In May 2002, the White House announced a Major to build its own reconnaissance satellite for the first In January 2001, Space Imaging announced it had Review of Commercial Earth Observation Policy, to time. The “SAR-Lupe” radar spacecraft should be been awarded a license by the National Oceanic and In July 2002, Spot Image initiated sales of SPOT be led by the National Security Council. One of the operational by 2004. OHB will act as prime contractor, Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to operate a 5 imagery, following the spacecraft’s launch in outcomes of this review could be secured govern- a surprising upset over Astrium Germany. commercial remote sensing spacecraft capable of May 2002. ment imagery purchase agreements to ensure control providing half-meter resolution imagery of the Earth. of high-resolution imagery, and at the same time, On October 5, 2001, the National Imagery and Map- In October 2002, Spot Image signed a SPOT data providing guaranteed revenue to private Earth ping Agency (NIMA) selected two contractor teams reception agreement with the Canada Centre for observation operators. led by General Dynamics Electronics Systems and Remote Sensing (CCRS) to supply its US subsidiary Lockheed Martin Management and Data Systems to SPOT Image Corporation with improved service, and develop an approach to modernize the United States imagery from the new SPOT 5 satellite. Under the agreement, Spot Image is to install a SPOT 5 Terminal EARTH OBSERVATION at the PrinceGlobal Albert, SaskatchewanSpace Sector receiving Market station, Trends And Drivers 45 which covers most of Canada and the United States. This station has been receiving SPOT imagery MAJOR EVENTS MAJOR EVENTS OF 2001-2002 OF 2001-2002

attracted significant attention around the world, In January 2001, SPOT Image Corporation announced • In March 2002, MDA announced a contract to and is being emulated in some countries, notably it now holds the exclusive contract for distributing enhance the GeoConnections Discovery Portal for since 1986, and is now upgrading its receiving in Germany (TerraSAR X Band is a partnership new SPOT satellite image products and services Natural Resources Canada. The site has hosted equipment to perform near-real time image archiving between the German Aerospace Centre, or DLR, within Canada. over 17 million visitors since its creation in 1996, at regional and global archive locations. The terminal and Astrium GMBh). and has been rated “Best Data Centre” in Canada, will also allow CCRS to process, generate and elec- MacDonald Dettwiler & Associates (MDA), Canada’s the United States, and Australia by its users. tronically transmit products more quickly to SPOT In November 2001, ESA declined to commit suffi- largest geospatial information company, made the • In April 2002, DigitalGlobe announced that MDA’s Image Corporation. cient funding to participation in Canada’s proposed news on several occasions. Some examples: EarthSat had been appointed a reseller of US CANADIAN REMOTE SENSING EVENTS RADARSAT 2/3 topographic mission. The CSA conti- • In February 2001, MDA announced it had amended data from the high-resolution QuickBird satellite. Canada’s RADARSAT 1, operational since 1995, conti- nued to examine possible domestic (with DND) its agreement with Orbital Imaging Corporation • In July 2002, MDA announced that the US National nued to perform well, and surpassed its nominal and international partnerships to implement this (ORBIMAGE) for the worldwide distribution of Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) had agreed lifetime. In March 2002, scientists completed the interesting concept. RADARSAT-2 data. Until then, ORBIMAGE had to purchase RADARSAT-1 products and services, first detailed map of Antarctica, thanks to more than the full rights to all economic benefits from such as near-real time delivery of RADARSAT-1 data. 4,500 images provided by the Radarsat 1 satellite. On June 25, 2002, the CSA announced twelve RADARSAT-2, in exchange for certain payments to • In October 2002, MDA announced the award of Until then, more than 3 million square kilometers contracts, worth close to CA$2 M, with Canadian MDA during its construction and operation. MDA two Information Systems contracts. The first is of Antarctica had been insufficiently mapped. companies for developing leading-edge uses of now has worldwide rights to RADARSAT-2 distri- to build a planning and scheduling system for space-based Earth Observation data and applications. bution, except for the United States of America. satellite data acquisition and reception at CCRS’

To ensure data continuity to users, the CSA is pur- These contracts have been awarded to Atlantis • In September 2001, MDA announced two contracts facilities in Saskatoon and Gatineau, including a suing arrangements with the European Space Agency Scientific, A.U.G Signals Ltd., Dendron Resource worth over CA$3 M to provide RADARSAT-1 imagery new capability to support RADARSAT-2. The second (ESA) whereby images from Envisat (launched Surveys, Hatfield Consultants, MIR Teledetection, for ice monitoring and mapping to the Canadian contract is to build the system that controls March 1, 2002) could be used in case of failure Noetix Research, Paterson, Grant and Watson, Ice Service (CIS) and the Danish Meteorological satellite data reception at those facilities. MDA by RADARSAT 1 before the launch of RADARSAT 2. EarthScan Ltd., PCI Geomatics, Tecsult, Vantage Institute (DMI). also announced a CA$4 M contract to develop and Point International and Viasat Geotechnologies. • In October 2001, MDA was appointed the sole deliver a Ground Processing Facility for Defence

RADARSAT 2 passed several critical milestones on its Canadian reseller of worldwide data from the Research and Development Canada-Ottawa, way to launch in early 2004. The bus, payload and In January 2001, Vexcel Corporation of Colorado high-resolution QuickBird satellite by Digital- (DRDC-O). MDA and RapidEye AG also signed an ground segment all passed the critical design review and Atlantis Scientific of Ottawa announced a merger Globe of Colorado. The 3-year agreement also agreement in principle to supply and launch a stage in 2002. RADARSAT 2 is developed under a part- between the two corporations. The new company will includes distribution rights in the United States. constellation of Earth observation satellites and nership between the CSA (which is providing most be active in SAR processing, SAR interferometry, MDA also sells certified QuickBird ground stations. provide the ground-related infrastructure for digital elevation model creation, surface change • In December 2001, MDA announced the acquisition, the RapidEye project in Germany. To realize the of the funding) and MDA, which acts as prime mapping, and image processing and analysis. for US$30 M of Earth Satellite Corp., a Maryland project, MDA and RapidEye will work together contractor and will own and operate the system satellite imagery company. EarthSat is one of to complete the financing, a process that is well and distribute the images worldwide, through its In the aftermath of 9/11, Optech’s LIDAR technology the largest US suppliers of information products underway. In addition RapidEye and MDA, together subsidiary Radarsat International (RSI). RADARSAT 2 was used by NOAA’s National Geodetic Survey and to NIMA and other US federal agencies as well with RSI and EarthSat, announced their intention will be the world’s first operational remote sensing Aircraft Operations Center to map the wreckage of as commercial and private clients. to cooperate closely in their marketing and product mission implemented through a public-private part- the World Trade Center in support of recovery and development efforts. The supply project is valued nership, where the government and industry share cleanup efforts. at approximately US$100 M. EARTH OBSERVATIONthe costs, risks and rewards. This partnership has Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 47 MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS

FIGURE J 13 13 Data provided directly Radarsat International Inc. (RSI), an MDA subsi- MARKET TRENDS 17 TRENDS AND diary, also announced several important transactions. COMMERCIAL SATELLITE IMAGING MARKET: to the author by Ron The market is growing quickly, though estimates of REVENUE FORECASTS (WORLD), 1997-2007 OPPORTUNITIES IN A sample: Stearns, Senior Strategic the overall market size and rate of growth vary. MARINE REMOTE • In January 2001, RSI was selected as a United Analyst, Frost & Sullivan, FIGURE J 13 , Frost & Sullivan Year Revenues (US$ M) Revenue Growth Rate (%) SENSING TECHNOLOGY, States Geological Survey (USGS) business partner. As indicated in August 2002. This partnership allows RSI to commercially distri- projects the market for commercial satellite imagery 1997 120.0 — Borstad & Associates, to grow from US$172.9 M in 2000 to US$772 M 14 bute North American and International data from 1998 139.3 16.1 Study performed for the LANDSAT 7 satellite archived at the Eros Data in 2007, a compound growth rate of 23.8% for Data provided 1999 153.7 10.3 the CSA, December Center (EDC). RSI also concluded a RADARSAT-1 the period. directly by Frost & 2000 172.9 12.5 2001, hereinafter network station license agreement with the Natio- Sullivan to the author, 14 . nal Institute for Space Research of Brazil (INPE). Frost & Sullivan foresees growth for the GISFIGURE software K 2001 199.4 15.3 18“Borstad & Associates” 15August 2002. • In July 2001, CIDA announced two contracts to market specifically as indicated in 2002 236.8 18.8 More generally, the total market for all commercial RSI worth CA$1.6 M to develop Information Net- 2003 282.8 19.4 Borstad & Associates. EO imagery (satellite and aerial) and GIS software Data provided directly works for Bangladesh and Thailand. Also, two is expected by Frost & Sullivan15 to grow as indica- 2004 348.4 23.2 by Frost & Sullivan to international network stations at INPE (Brazil) FIGURE L . 16 ted in Figure 2005 441.1 26.6 the author, August 2002. and the Geo-informatics & Space Technology Deve- Commercial Observation Business Models Are 2006 587.0 33.1 lopment Agency (GISTDA) in Bangkok, Thailand, 16 : Driven by clear market demand for were awarded RADARSAT-1 product certification, Changing Review and Analysis technology-transparent solutions to problems, as 2007 772.0 31.5 increasing RSI’s network of operational and pro- opposed to just data, many data providers, including of Earth Observation Compond Annual Growth Rate (2000-2007): 23.8% duct-certified ground stations to 14 worldwide. RSI in Canada, are switching to a different model, Satellite Data and FIGURE M • In October 2001, RSI was named exclusive Cana- as indicated in . Note: all figures are rounded; the base year is 2000 Policies in Support of dian distributor of QuickBird data. The agreement, Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2002

Operational and Research which also includes distribution rights in the The increasing vertical integration of the industry systems for ship detection, crop monitoring (e.g. for United States, has a three-year term. is evident as more and more data suppliers move From descriptive to predictive information products: Use and Related insurance companies), disaster management and • In February 2002, RSI and GeoAnalytic Inc. of up the value chain. A few recent examples include EO information companies have become very adept Commercialization other applications. Calgary renewed a purchase agreement for the Space Imaging’s acquisition of EOSAT, the birth at describing how the world looks today or looked Policies Around the supply of RADARSAT-1, LANDSAT 5, LANDSAT 7, of Astrium in Europe, MMS acquisition of NRSC historically, including change patterns. Borstad & 17 believes in the increasing importance Real opportunities in coastal monitoring will exist World, Report to the and ERS-1 and -2 Earth-observation (EO) satel- (UK), Orbital Sciences consolidated approach to EO Associates 18 of tools that will help predict the way the world for Canadian companies : Coastal areas are where CSA, 2002, Consultants lite images by RSI to GeoAnalytic over the next business lines, and MDA/RSI’s acquisition of value- will look, thereby opening significant opportunities man’s interaction with the sea is greatest. Some major two years. added companies. M.L. Stojak Inc. for Canadian companies selling decision support ocean-related issues will generate opportunities for Canadian companies able to provide appropriate In February 2001, PCI was selected by the National GIS Key Lab of the China Scientific Academy as its principal geomatics software solution provider. EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 49 MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS

FIGURE K 14 FIGURE L 15 GIS SOFTWARE MARKET: REVENUE FORECASTS (WORLD), 1997-2007 TOTAL COMMERCIAL REMOTE SENSING AND GIS SOFTWARE MARKET: REVENUE FORECASTS (WORLD), 1997-2007 Year Revenues (US$ M) Revenue Growth Rate (%) Year Revenues (US$ M) Revenue Growth Rate (%) 1997 871.4 — 1997 3,008.0 — 1998 876.0 12.0 1998 3,307.4 10.0 1999 1,105.8 13.3 1999 3,692.6 11.6 2000 1,240.7 12.2 2000 4,056.0 9.8 2001 1,379.7 11.2 2001 4,409.0 8.7 2002 1,524.5 10.5 2002 4,775.3 8.3 2003 1,658.7 8.8 2003 5,139.3 7.6 2004 1,783.1 7.5 2004 5,511.6 7.2 2005 1,900.8 6.6 2005 5,907.8 7.2 2006 2,012.9 5.9 2006 6,354.9 7.6 2007 2,129.7 5.8 2007 6,848.1 7.8

Compond Annual Growth Rate (2000-2007): 8.0% Compond Annual Growth Rate (2000-2007): 7.8% Note: all figures are rounded; the base year is 2000 Note: all figures are rounded; the base year is 2000

data products: (1) safety and security (real-time Users involved in coastal zone management need: FIGURE M weather, sea state and other information as well as • affordable, accurate and reliable data and EVOLVING BUSINESS MODEL longer term information relating to safe navigation), information (2) human impacts on the ocean (measuring impacts • time series data products Traditional EO Data Company Information Age Image Company of development and urbanization on biodiversity, •geo-referenced map products Produces/sells data only Produces information, multiple data sources

pollution and resources), and (3) climate change •high spatial resolution data in near-real time Operating largely alone Partnerships (measuring the impact of climate change on weather, (for some applications) Limited pricing and access policies Flexible pricing and access on coastal erosion, and on marine and terrestrial • tools to allow easy manipulation, visualization ecosystems). See Appendix 2 for a summary of and fusion of large volumes of disparate data in Knows data only Integrated into broader spatial/IT marketplace

opportunities in coastal zones for Canadian industry. effective ways Only collects, processes and disseminates data Vertical market expertise • tools and systems for “seamless management Source: M.L. Stojak Inc, 2002 and distribution” of data and data products EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 51 MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS

FIGURE N 19 19 Information provided Existing satellites do not adequately address Satellite 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 coastal zone problems: This is because current low CURRENT AND PLANNED 1 METER to the author by William Sie Ikonos-2 resolution sensors (AVHRR, MODIS, SeaWiFS, alti- AND BETTER SATELLITES E. Stoney, Principal ISI Eros-A1 meters) are incapable of providing enough spatial Engineer, Mitretek DG QuickBird-2 detail in coastal zones, while commercial high- Commercial Corporation – August resolution sensors (IKONOS, Eros, and Quickbird) funded IRS TES 2002. See have poor spectral resolution and poor repeat cycles, OrbView-3 France and their data are generally too expensive. ESA’s www.mitretek.org. ISI Eros-B1 20 MERIS instrument represents the first true coastal Germany zone colour scanner, with a repeat cycle adequate Cartosat-2 The growth of the to overcome cloud limitations. At the present time ISI Eros-B2 aerial remote sensing India however, Canada will not be able to benefit from DG QuickBird-3 industry will increa- the 300 meter resolution because Canada does not Italy ISI Eros-B3 singly be stalled by have a direct reception capability for MERIS. Because of their flexibility to meet tidal, cloud or biological Kompsat-2 the availability of Korea time constraints, and because of their high spatial ISI Eros-B4 commercial half-meter resolution, aircraft sensors have an important and SIE Ikonis Blk 2 optical and high continuing role to play in the coastal zone. Pleiades resolution radar ISI Eros-B5 satellite imagery. Better sensors and better access networks and CommercialUS Com. interpretative software are coming into the funded Cosmos (Radar) 19 marketplace: The market for the EO servicesFIGURE sector N ), and Israel Com. Pleiades 20 . The is gainingRADARSAT considerable 2 data impetus soon tofrom be theavailable availability from RSI growth in supply is much greater than even the most ISI Eros-B6 of timely, extremely high quality high resolution optimistic projections for demand, and we can expect Cosmos (Radar) optical data from US, Indian, Italian, German, French prices to fall, in some cases dramatically. This again and Israeli organizations (see TerraSAR-X argues for the switch to selling information solutions. Cosmos (Radar) In addition, better data archiving, retrieval, manipu- Note: • Eros-A1 = 1.8 m resolution. TerraSAR-L lation, distribution and interpretation technologies • Japan has “discussed” developing sets are emerging, including automated systems for of 1 meter optical and radar satellites processing and interpreting data and systems for providing services on-line. The technology required to access and distribute data access is changing

EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 53 WHAT TO EXPECT

MARKET TRENDSinformation-heavy, specialized products and IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS services), on the one hand, and the inexpensive low end market (off the shelf, shrink wrapped imagery and interpretative software or low

resolution data distributed at cost) on the other. 22 FIGURE Q dramatically, as evidenced by the growing infra- 21 For instance Leica Disaster management and military applications are 24 Whereas the early structure technology associated with electronic Geosystems, a leading expected to grow more quickly than other uses. For SPOT and Landsat distribution networks such as CEONet (Canada), GPS company, announced these segments, the most important requirements satellites cost between EOSDIS (US), and CEO (Europe). Canada’s CEONet are that the data be received in a timely fashion on April, 27, 2001 works in some ways similar to how Netscape ope- Satellite & 4D modelling US$300-350 M, the new and that it be of suitably high resolution. These aircraft remote Users & fusion of the acquisition of all rates on the Internet. “Electronic commerce” will sensing disparate data sets smaller, high-resolution markets have the highest value-added and the become possible for EO services. As a result, value- the shares of ERDAS highest premiums on the information generated optical satellites can added companies will develop new services. On-line Incorporated, a remote through remote sensing. On the other hand, some be built and launched service-providers will customize information products GEO-REFERENCED GIS sensing and GIS satellite systems (e.g. Landsat 7) generate data GPS & Visualization for under US$150 M. for their clients. Several international ground stations INFORMATION which can be obtained at COFUR (Cost Of Filing software provider, and (including Canada) are or will be adding on-line (Aerospace America, User Request, estimated at US$400 for Landsat 7 the acquisition of the archive browsers and electronic data distribution Focus Sharpens for images). Such a low price may have an impact on In situ remaining 50 percent capabilities (web-based). This should dramatically The Imaging Market, commercial distributors who are charging US$2000 observations Wireless change the EO services market and create new ones. Communications Internet of the shares of LH plus per scene. As indicated in , the (ships, buoys, ROVs) September 2000.

Systems, an aerial profit-generating data sales market is being squeezed This is dramatically We can expect a convergence of EO and other techno- Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2000 from both sides, reducing even further the prospectsFIGURE P photography, remote logies, fuelling mergers and acquisitions: The remote changing the economics that the commercial data sales business will become sensing and sensing business is increasingly becoming part of Earth observation is being applied has very diffe- of the satellite remote self-sustaining. in costs is even more pronounced when one considers photogrammetry a larger geo-referenced information business. A rent needs, which in turn affects how the imagery sensing business, the qualitative improvements brought by many technological capability and an industry called geo- 24 . This cost reduction needs to be collected, processed, interpreted, company, from joint- Data usage will change in the future, and SAR new entrants to the EO market especially on the 22 matics,are emerging at the cross-roads of three key can enable clusters of smaller satellites to perform and distributed. venture partner CMC usage will double: optical side. 23 provides a technologies: remote sensing (space or aerial based), FIGURE Q the job once reserved for large spacecraft. Such Electronics. 21 , as EO companies seek to provide ever forecast of the shift in data usage in the key US GPS, and communications—providing the capacity clusters can reduce launch and mission failure risks, more comprehensive solutions to their customers WHAT TO EXPECT 23 to develop precise and easily accessible geo-refe- market over the period 2001-2006. SAR data use will 22 illustrates this and enable faster revisit times. through integration. FIGURE O IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS Adapted from Borstad renced information. This fusion of capabilities is grow significantly, but will remain a niche market. convergence of technologies: Move to a GMES model of sustainable operational & Associates, 2002. likely to be at the heart of increased mergers and The value-added industry is becoming increasingly services: Operational information services are still acquisitions There will be a move towards smaller EO satellites More and more, the data market is divided specialized: Each of the EO applications areas, few and far between. Recognizing this, the European flying in formation: The move towards smaller and ASPRS Forecast. between the expensive high end and the particularly in SAR, requires the development and GMES program seeks to foster the development of cheaper remote sensing satellite systems is being inexpensive low end, creating challenges for implementation of enormously specialized algo- new operational services based on satellite and driven by the growing use of mature off-the-shelf commercial EO companies: The market is rithms that are designed and developed for that other EO data, and other technologies, to ensure systems for sensors, spacecraft components, ground becoming increasingly bifurcated, between the specific application; as a result, companies are that European decision makers at various levels stations and communications subsystems, mission high end market (high resolution, real-time, developing applications-specific expertise. Each of have access to the right data products at the right operations and facilities and launchers. This drop the market user groups to which satellite-based EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 55 WHAT TO EXPECT WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS

FIGURE P FIGURE Q 23 25 E.g. the United States SQUEEZED DATA SALES MARKET USE OF IMAGE TYPES: 2001 VS 2006 (ALL SECTORS) Global Change Research

Program (USGCRP), 2001 2006 a research program Free data from ERS, 20% Envisat, Landsat High quality, Data restricted due 15% to address key (off-the-shelf, shrink- valuable data which to security concerns can be sold (high- (particularly impor- 10% uncertainties about wrapped imagery and resolution, real-time, interpretative information-rich). tant for timely, 5% changes in the Earth’s software, or multi-polarized, 0% low-resolution data high-resolution SAR). global environmental Hyper- Multi- SAR LIDAR Digital Digital Digital Color Color Pan; distributed at cost). spectral spectral IR Color B/W IR Film Film B/W system both natural time. Canada already has good experiencechers at minimalwith cost to stimulate the value-added and human induced. this, in the form of the Canadian industryIce Service sector. (CIS) A recent shift in policy can be seen Most used in 2001 (>10%) Most used in 2006 (>10%) of Environment Canada. The CIS is withthe singlethe SPOT largest VEGETATION program. In support of • Digital B/W • Multispectral buyer of Radarsat data, which enablesthe GMES near initia realtive, the partners of the SPOT VEGE- • Multispectral • Digital Color time ice maps to be sent to ship captainsTATION inprogram Canada’s have recently revised their data • Digital Color • LIDAR North. Consideration is being givendistribution to extending policy. A major part of the archive is the model to other Nordic countriesnow via opened the GMES to the entire user community at no • Pan Film (Pan; B/W) • Digital IR program. The experience of the Canadiancost. The industry scientist category will be extended to the • Color Film • Digital B/W in providing timely solutions to customersworld-wide could research institutes and laboratories, as • Digital IR • Hyperspectral also position it for the increasingwell opportunities as VEGETATION program partners. NASA’s Earth which are sure to come from GMESObserving and similar System ini- (EOS) will also make data available 25tiatives. around the world at the cost of dissemination or below to facilitate and encourage use. Japan has also adopted a data Industrial consolidation will increase and a The price of data will drop dramatically in coming Data Policies will give more room to distributing policy which favors researchers by introducing a two- shakeout can be expected: Given the gradual years: The imbalance between the rates of growth images at marginal cost for research: In the case tier pricing model. Earth observation data, including maturation of the industry and the current number between supply and demand cannot continue indefi- of Spot Image, the French government provided from the soon to be launched ALOS satellite, will of companies in the sector, one can expect further nitely. The corollary is that the value of customer- grants and subsidies to French researchers to help be distributed at marginal cost to researchers who integration, both vertical and horizontal, in the focused solutions and operational services will offset the market prices set by Spot Image. This agree to specified terms and conditions. And the EO industry. rise, as EO companies continue to show users how policy has been sharply criticized within France. CSA has received representations to the effect satellite images, often in conjunction with other Many have stated that at its inception in 1986, that Radarsat data should be more affordable for data, can serve their needs. Spot Image should have distributed data to resear- scientific use.

EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 57 CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS

to ensure that the richest information possible is Stéphane Lessard Privatization and commercialization will method will promote the harmonization of appli- produced; and (3) user-centered operational infor- External Relations mation systems must increasingly be developed, continue: As more customers rely on operational cable restrictions and ensure that, in the face of Canadian Space Agency services and solutions from information providers, rapid technological changes, restrictions can be to ensure that the right information reaches the Tel: (450) 926-4364 the revenue models will improve, encouraging more modified in a flexible way. right decision makers at the right time (the Canadian Fax: (450) 926-4362 companies to take a share of the risk in funding Ice Service’s daily use of near real-time Radarsat and operating missions. CONCLUSIONS data can serve as a model). Success on these prio- Email: [email protected] rities will require a continued strong partnership Satellite remote sensing is rapidly finding its place between the Canadian Government, industry and The critical success factors will increasingly be in the modern economy. Public good applications academic sectors, to ensure the next level of matu- those of more mature industries: Marketing, price, are increasingly being developed and recognized rity for the sector. distribution, overall customer service, product by governments as key to their national priorities differentiation, etc., will increasingly emerge as in environmental monitoring, resource management, the factors that distinguish the winners. Overall, disaster mitigation and other areas, to the point industry-wide standardization will emerge as a key where non-traditional government departments driver for growth. are discovering how they can use EO information products. This is happening in Canada: the CSA Controls on access to EO data will become multi- recently conducted a review of potential require- lateral: The US was the first country to impose ments of departments for the use of space products national controls on the types of data that could and services, and these consultations revealed many or could not be sold by US providers. When it became new possibilities, including for radar and hyper- apparent that Canada’s RADARSAT 2 would have a spectral sensors. In parallel, the efforts of commercial quite capable 3 meter resolution in fine mode (com- data providers and value-added companies to educate pared to RADARSAT 1’s 8 meter resolution), the US users about the benefits of EO data are starting requested the conclusion of an access control to pay off. Markets for data and especially for agreement with the Government of Canada, which information products are developing nicely, with agreement was signed in 1999. Now, the US has stronger growth expected in the area of opera- initiated similar discussions with the German tional information services. government, in light of the planned high resolution TerraSAR X-Band system. As more countries seek Whether we are talking of public good or commercial to provide high resolution images and information applications of EO data and information, three key products, we can expect the US and its allies priorities remain: (1) data providers must continue to move to a multilateral control regime, akin to to bridge the knowledge gap separating them from those in place for sensitive military technologies potential customers, (2) efforts must continue to (Wassenaar Arrangement), launch technologies integrate satellite EO data with other key technologies (Missile Technology Control Regime) and others. This EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 59 APPENDICES APPENDICES

FIGURE R Satellite 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 APPENDIX 1 ISI Eros-B6 REMOTE SENSING MISSIONS IN DEVELOPMENT ISI Eros-A1 Satellite 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 IRS TES Landsat 5 IRS P5 SPOT 1 Cartosat-2 SPOT 2 Terra (ASTER) IRS-1C MTI IRS-1D EO-1 SPOT 4 NEMO Landsat 7 ERS-2 CBERS-1 Radarsat 1 SPOT 5 Envisat CBERS-2 Radarsat 2 IRS-P6 ALOS-1 ALOS-1 LCDM SIE IKONOS-2 Countries DG QuickBird OrbView-3 US Com. India China/Brazil ISI Eros-B1 US Government France Canada ISI Eros-B2 Kompsat 2 Korea ESA ImageSat Int. ISI Eros-B3 DG QuickBird Japan ISI Eros-B4 SIE IKONOS ISI Eros-B5 Source: William E.Stonay, August 2002 with permission.

EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 61 APPENDICES APPENDICES

FIGURE S 26 Exclusive Issues Int’l EEZ 26 Coastal Relevant APPENDIX 2 As identified from the Waters Zone Product or Service Economic Zone literature and web site review SUMMARY OF MARINE REMOTE SENSING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CANADIAN VARS. and used in the survey.

Issues Int’l EEZ 26 Coastal Relevant Environmental monitoring and resources management As identified from the Waters Zone Product or Service Environmental monitoring, change HHHClimate effects of offshore ecosystem, literature and web site review detection and water quality detailed monitoring in coastal zone near and used in the survey. urban areas

Cross-sectoral issues Renewable resources management L L H Mapping, monitoring, tracking; support of (e.g. stock assessment, straddling stocks, fisheries research and management Availability of suitably trained people to L M M Commercial practical and mariculture) manage and use the information for university academic training decision making (including demographics) Safety, surveillance and regulation

Availability of data (e.g. appropriate L M H Commercial data acquisition Legislative/organizational framework for H H Mapping and monitoring products in measurements, accuracy, timeliness); conflict resolution and implementation Decision Support Systems of necessary decisions Access to appropriate information products L L H Sales by VARs of standardized and services (e.g. world data centres information products; Ocean portals, Regulation of activities in international L Radarsat to track vessels and some waters pollution and standards, data fusion) GeoConnections, MarineInformation GeoData Initiative Regulation of exclusive economic zone M Radarsat to track vessels and some Tourism and recreation M Indirectly creating demand for activities pollution (e.g. shoreline development) information Regulatory enforcement (e.g. fisheries L H H Radarsat to track vessels and sense some Development of predictive models L M M Indirect demand for spatial information andsurveillance, piracy) defence, sovereignty kinds of pollution; aerial surveillance interactions)(e.g. socio-economic-environmental that can be provided by remote sensing Environmental monitoring and resources management Safety at sea (e.g. hydrographic L H H Real-time weather and sea state. LIDAR searchcharting, and and rescue) other navigation aids, sensors,bathymetry, very high resolution optical Environmental impact assessment for new H H Strong demand for high resolution developments and quality indicators spatial information Natural hazards (e.g. storms, erosion) L L H DEMs in anticipation of storm and climate related flooding Non-renewable resource management H H Real-time local and regional information (e.g. oil and gas, beach and seabed mining) for safety, also environmental information Port development and efficient operation H Very high resolution optical for engineering and environmental studies Preservation of biodiversity H Indirect application for coastal zone habitat mapping Regulation of ship- and shore-based L L H Very high spatial resolution monitoring pollution Climate change and variability L L H Satellite time series in open ocean and Regulation of coastal zone activities H Mapping and monitoring at all scales (e.g. sea level change) EEZ, but little commercial input. Detailed coastalhabitat zoneand resource mapping, DEMs for Note: Habitat management (e.g. marine H Very high resolution mapping of coastal Most of the issues are public sector responsibilities. The opportunity for a remote sensing contribution (H = high; M = medium; L = low) may be in the form of equipment sales and/or services by a VAR to the responsible agency. H does not mangroves)protected areas, corals, sea grass, occurring zones, especially where development is necessarily represent a numerically large niche - just that there is one.

Source: Trends and Opportunities in Marine Remote Sensing Technology, Borstad & Associates, 2001.

EARTH OBSERVATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 63 table of contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 66

MARKET CHARACTERISTICS 67

MAJOR CANADIAN EVENTS OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002 71

MARKET TRENDS 74

Prepared by: WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS 80

Sylvie Beland, eng., Ph.D CONCLUSIONS 83 External Relations

SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MARKET CHARACTERISTICS currently being developed in Canada targeted satellites, solar system exploration tasks, and the specifically at solar-system exploration and development of the next generation launch and next-generation launch and space vehicles. space vehicles.

The CSA, along with Canada’s space industry, must The true commercial utilization of space relies mainly 1 Piedboeuf, Jean-Claude Trends 2001 publication, highlighting specific key 2 Ellery, Alex, An EXECUTIVE SUMMARY continue to carry out extensive R&D in this field on advances in inexpensive reliable space transpor- and Dupuis, Erick, Recent events from the last year and discusses specific Introduction to Space During the last few decades, Canada has achieved as it anticipates the growing presence of Canadian tation from Earth to reduce launch costs, and on Canadian Activities in trends to watch for in the near future. Robotics, Springer – world recognition in space robotics. The exceptional technologies that go beyond classic manipulator the development of remote complex manipulation Space Automation & Praxis Books in performance of the Canadarm has led to our contri- applications. Continued investment by CSA and for space-based activities. As the goal of reducing Robotics – An Overview, Astronomy and Space bution to the International Space Station (ISS) the space industry in cutting edge technology MARKET CHARACTERISTICS launch costs to $2,500/kg or less is realized, more Proceedings of the 6th Sciences, 2000 project. The successful provisioning of the Mobile development will reinforce Canada’s leadership commercial exploitation of space is anticipated International Symposium Servicing System (MSS) for the ISS has reaffirmed and innovation in space robotics, and will open SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION on Artificial Intelligence Canada’s reputation as a leader in robotics techno- up growth opportunities in commercial markets PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Space robotics and automation products and and Robotics logy and now gives us the opportunity to consolidate requiring this advanced technology. It will also 2. & Automation in Space: our expertise and to contemplate new challenges. prepare Canada to play a key role in international services consist of the following: Companies such as Space Adventures Inc. are already i-SAIRAS 2001, missions as the world space community focuses •robot hardware, including materials, joints, gears, planning or making reservations for future space Canadian Space Agency, This is a crucial time for robotics and automation in its attention on the exploration of Mars and other interfaces, end effectors, tools, vision systems tourists. As well, space-based solar power generation Québec, Canada, space in Canada. At the dawn of the new millennium, targets in our solar system. •robot control software, including artificial and space-based production and manufacturing June 18-22, 2001 space robotics and automation are facing new chal- intelligence will become economically more attractive. Environ- lenges. The International Space Station is being built The development of a robotics and automation stra- • operator interface hardware and software, mental clean up of space debris and re-deployment and space robotics will play a major role in assembly, tegy for Canada is critical. Canada has attained a •robotic simulations for system development, of space assets will become more affordable. All maintenance and scientific payload manipulation. good international reputation in the space robotics analysis, mission planning, and training, these potential opportunities will call for significant The exploration of planets and their moons, asteroids, and automation industry but will not be able to take •ground segments for robot monitoring and ground and on-orbit infrastructure requiring state- and comets commands more and more of our atten- advantage of the technical advances it has made control, and of-the-art space robotics and automation equipment. tion. In space, servicing of satellites and construction or the human resources it has developed, and will •training on the operation, ground control, and maintenance of space-based robotic systems. of large structures present new opportunities. For definitely not be able to maintain the forefront in CUSTOMERS FOR SPACE ROBOTICS In this context, commercial demand in Canada for all these applications, increased levels of autonomy space robotics without a solid strategy for the future. AND AUTOMATION space robotics and automation products will evolve and more intelligent systems are needed. Currently, worldwide projects requiring space robotics significantly when other large-scale projects such Although there have been some new developments and automation products are primarily government as planetary exploration requiring robotic assembly 1. Space robotics and automation is a key element of and projects worthy of mention during the past year, and maintenance are funded and initiated. The Strategic robotic technologies are being developed supported. This trend will continue as long as these the Canadian Space Program. The Government of space robotics and automation does not evolve as robotics and automation industry in Canada should in industry and in the CSA to allow Canada to projects are either not of near-term commercial Canada, through the Canadian Space Agency, has rapidly as other space sectors such as is the case be poised to take advantage of these major oppor- continue as the world leader in space robotics. The interest or suggest a more sustainable cost return made a sizeable investment in space robotics, and for satellite communications. As a result, the general tunities when they arise. evolution of the current technology base is being upon investment. This is the case for very large-scale several exciting programs are currently ongoing market trends for 2002 have not changed signifi- enhanced to enable Space Station evolution for projects such as the construction and maintenance cantly from those observed in 2001. Therefore, Currently, the governments demanding the bulk of operations and robotic science experimentation. of the International Space Station, manipulation this chapter provides both an update of the Space space robotics and automation products are Canada, In addition, significant robotic technologies are and maintenance of on-orbit equipment and Robotics & Automation chapter in the Global the member states of the European Space Agency (ESA), the United States, Russia and Japan. The Government of Canada, through the Canadian SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 67 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

support personnel, and robotic task validation. CAE is contracted to develop specific SPDM functionality Space Agency, has made a sizeable investment International Submarine Engineering (ISE) – the Space Shuttle Remote Manipulator System and for incorporation into the MOTS, including the inte- in space robotics and automation, a key element Canada. ISE is a privately-owned Canadian company, the comprehensive suite of robotic equipment on gration of encapsulated flight software for the SPDM of the Canadian Space Program. founded in 1974 to design and build robotic submer- the International Space Station. as it becomes available from MacDonald Dettwiler sibles. Significant subsystems for these submersible Space end Advanced Robotics (MDR). CAE is also MAJOR COMMERCIAL SUPPLIERS robots are robotic manipulators, computer control MDR provides services to commercial, civil and mili- supporting specific MOTS functionality development OF SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION software, and sensors. These subsystems became tary customers in Canada and international markets required to allow a full integration of the SPDM PRODUCTS the basis of ISE`s products developed for land and including the United States, Japan and Europe. MDR Testing and Verification Facility (STVF). Currently, Canadian firms have extensive expertise in many space robotic applications. designs and manufactures systems for applications the SSRMS is being validated and the SPDM model robotics products and services: robotic materials, in Space Exploration, On-orbit Satellite Servicing, is being integrated in MOTS. joints, gears, interfaces, end effectors, tools, tele- ISE was responsible for the development of the Mining Vehicle Automation, Tele-medicine, Nuclear presence, telecontrol, vision systems, autonomous Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator (SPDM) Task Remediation and Animatronics. EMS Technologies - Canada. EMS Technologies operations, artificial intelligence, training, and Verification Facility (STVF) robot, a hydraulic mani- Canada, Ltd. is a subsidiary of EMS Technologies software development. Canadian commercial suppliers pulator system that will simulate the SPDM. They MDRobotics also designed and built the end Inc. headquarted in Atlanta, Georgia. EMS employs of these space robotics and automation products were responsible for the development of CSA’s effector that acts as the hand for Japan’s Space over 2,000 people worldwide with modern engi- are perhaps few but well established. The list below Automation and Robotic Testbed (CART) which Station element remote manipulator. Under a neering and manufacturing facilities in Atlanta, (in alphabetical order) provides a few examples of provides Canadian experts working in the field contract to Italy’s Alenia, MD Robotics is supplying Ottawa, Montréal, the UK and Brazil. Drawing from these large and small-to-medium sized enterprises of robot and automation with an effective tool to a power data grapple fixture for the European decades of expertise in space robotics, satellite in Canada, Japan, the USA, and Europe. A more further refine and test robotic technologies designed Space Agency’s element. communications and remote sensing, EMS designed complete listing of Canadian suppliers and resear- for space and terrestrial applications. and built the dozens of electronic computers and chers can be accessed through the Canadian Space Neptec. Neptec is a leader in the design, develop- controllers, wrote the software as well as integrated Agency’s (CSA) Space Directory, available on the CSA MacDonald Dettwiler Space and Advanced Robotics ment and integration of mission-critical real-time the joints and extremities (Latching End Effectors) web site at www.space.gc.ca. (MDR) – Canada. MD Robotics (MDR), a wholly software, harsh environment electronics design and of the Space Station Remote Manipulator System owned subsidiary of MacDonald Dettwiler and digital signal processing for mission-critical space, (Canadarm2). Similar work was performed for the Canadian companies Associates Ltd, is based in Ontario, Canada with healthcare, aerospace, defense and security appli- Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator (SPDM). Also CAE – Canada. Headquartered in Canada and opera- divisions located in Houston, Florida and New Mexico cations. Headquartered in Ottawa, Neptec employs under contract to MDR, EMS designed and built the ting globally, CAE is the world’s premier provider in the United States. MDR currently employs 1000 over 100 staff. Neptec International, a subsidiary Robotic Work Station (RWS) for the International of simulation and control technologies for training highly skilled people, over 60% of which are engi- in Houston, Texas, is engaged primarily in mission Space Station. The RWS is the interface between the and optimization solutions for the Aerospace, Defence neers and technologists. analysis and operational support for space programs. astronauts and the various robotic elements on board and Forestry sectors. the ISS. Two Robotic Work Stations have been deli- MDR offers automation and robotic solutions for com- Neptec has focused on the design of space vision vered to the ISS and several other flight equivalent CAE, under contract to the CSA, was responsible for plex, hazardous environments in space and terrestrial systems since 1990. Their Space Vision System (SVS) units are being used for astronaut training. In a the development and implementation of the MSS markets. MDR provides complete services from is installed on all of the Space Shuttle Orbiters and related ISS activity, EMS supplied all of the principal Operations and Training Simulator (MOTS), the high- mission definition and customer requirements - the ISS. Using patented algorithms and techniques, communications links to and from the ISS, inte- fidelity MSS dynamics simulator used for development through solution design, development, integration, SVS processes video signals from cameras in the grated the Camera-Light Assemblies and the Pan and assessment of MSS operations techniques, test and deployment - to post-deployment operation, Shuttle’s cargo bay and on theGlobal robotic arm Space to deter- Sector Market Trends And Drivers 69 SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATIONTilt Assemblies. training of astronauts, cosmonauts and ground maintenance and upgrades. MDR, is best known for mine the precise position and attitude of objects, assisting astronauts in accurately assembling elements MAJOR CANADIAN EVENTS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002

of the International Space Station. In August 2001, on-orbit operations of the MSS. The company also robotics. Past and current activities include: the MAJOR CANADIAN EVENTS a new laser scanner system developed by Neptec prepares lesson plans for the CSA’s multimedia Spider arm (1993-1997); Europa, for which Tecnos- OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002 was launched aboard Space Shuttle Discovery to learning centre, MSS Operations and Training Simu- pazio is responsible for the development of the arm The years 2001 and 2002 were marked by the suc- enhance the reliability of the Space Vision System lator (MOTS), and for virtual reality exercises. and its controller on the ISS Express Pallet; ROSETTA, cessful provisioning of the Canadarm2 system already installed on the Canadarm. where Tecnospazio is developing the drill and its including the SSRMS and the Mobile Base System, Foreign Companies controller; Drill for Mars Sample Return; and, ERA, together acting as a sophisticated robotic system Optech. Optech is a high-tech company located in Oceaneering Space Systems - USA. Oceaneering where Tecnospazio is responsible for the application critical to the assembly, maintenance and servicing Ontario specializing in manufacturing laser-based Space Systems (OSS) is a wholly-owned division layer software and the man-machine interface soft- of the International Space Station. This system ranging and detection systems. Throughout its 25 of Oceaneering International. OSS was formed in ware and robotic servicing (a testbed has been represents some of the most advanced robotics in years of existence, Optech has moved from its R&D 1988 as an advanced-technology division that developed to demonstrate assembly task in space). the world. Major Canadian events in 2001 and early base into a company that manufactures and inte- concentrates on the design, development, inte- 2002 are listed below and throughout this chapter. grates its own commercial products for a worldwide gration, and application of new and established Toshiba/NEC Corporation – Japan. NEC and Toshiba market. They have concentrated in the area of laser technologies to solve the challenges of operations legally established a new joint venture in April 2001, February 2001: Specialized Canadian robotics radar (lidar) applications. They have recently expan- in space. OSS has grown from an initial technical and have succeeded in transferring their space software developed by MDRobotics is delivered to ded into space-based lidars, building on earlier base of robotics and systems engineering into a operations to the new company that has been in the International Space Station (ISS) to operate the work in range-imaging for space robotic vision multi-product, multi-disciplined organization of operation since that time. The merger has created next-generation robotic arm for the ISS, Canadarm2. carried out with the support of CSA. They have over 200 people. a heightened presence in the commercial space designed a lidar that is now being evaluated for sector, particularly in space infrastructure, spacecraft March 2001: The Canadian robotic workstation (RWS) future NASA missions. OSS has developed robotics and automation processes and ground systems. This is the only company in developed by MDRobotics under contract to NASA to prepare, freeze, and store protein crystals grown Japan engaged solely in the manufacture of a line is brought to the ISS. The RWS is the control station Tecsult Eduplus – Canada. Tecsult Eduplus Inc. in space. It has also developed micromanipulators of space products. The total number of employees designed to provide an operator with a capability offers a wide range of human resource development with 50 micrometer positioning accuracy. OSS is a is 900 (1,200 including subsidiaries). The headquar- to control and monitor Canadarm2. The Robotic and training services, ranging from basic education, key member of the NASA-JSC Robonaut project to ters of the company is located in Yokohama City Workstation is built to provide a highly reliable, to employability counselling, to the creation of develop and demonstrate the robotic technologies and it has three manufacturing plants. The company seamless interface between man and machine and advanced e-learning content and systems that are needed to build “human-like” robotic systems focuses on satellite subsystems and components, feature display and control panels, hand controllers, at the forefront of new training technologies. As that replicate the dexterity of a suited astronaut’s space station systems, ground control systems, video monitors and computers. Two flight units one of the largest Canadian companies in the field, arm and hand. OSS has developed tools for use by robotics and rocket equipment, as well as design will be installed on the ISS. One will be located in they employ 150 specialists in training delivery, space-based robotic systems and has participated and satellite system integration. While NEC Corpo- the U.S. Lab Module, while the other will function instructional systems design, industrial engineering, in the design and testing of the Autonomous EVA ration has a long record of achievements in the as a back-up workstation in the Cupola. information technology, multimedia production, Robotic Camera (AERCam) Sprint Free Flyer for satellite business, Toshiba was responsible for the psychology and management. space construction operations. design and development of the robotics components April 2001: Canadarm2 designed and built under of the ETS-VII satellite and for the Japanese robotic the guidance of MDRobotics is successfully deployed Tecsult Eduplus Inc., not a space company per se, Tecnospazio-Italy. Tecnospazio is a 25-person space components servicing the Japanese Experimental and installed on the International Space Station. but is under contract to the CSA, responsible for robotics company part of Gallileo Avionic located Module on the ISS. The mission included the most complex and intricate Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 71 SPACE ROBOTICSproducing theAND computer-based AUTO training softwareMATIONin Italy, probably the most important space robotics robotics work ever conducted in space: two gene- that will train the people (astronauts, cosmonauts, company in Europe. Tecnospazio is producing space rations of Canadian robotic arms, Canadarm and and ground support personnel) responsible for robotics components and conducts R&D in space MAJOR CANADIAN EVENTS MAJOR CANADIAN EVENTS OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002 OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002 ESA has a number of space robotics programs, with the ISS providing the focus. Many studies have been conducted including the BIAS (Bi-Arm Servicer), MTSU (Man-Tended Servicing Unit), IRAS (Interactive

3 Diftler, M.A. and Canadarm2, worked together to transfer from the April 2002: Canadarm2 was operated to lift a FUTURE PROJECTS Remote Automation & Robotics Servicing), EMATS 4 Sato, N. and Y. (Experiment Manipulation and Transportation Ambrose, R.O., Robonaut: ISS to Shuttle cargo bay, the packing crate in which major truss segment out and away from the Shuttle The next few years promise to be very exciting for Wakabayashi, JEMRMS System), HERA (Hermes Robotic Arm) and ERA A Robotic Astronaut Canadarm2 was delivered. cargo bay and attach it onto the Destiny laboratory the space servicing community with several new Design Features and (European Robotic Arm) Assistant, Proceedings module of the International Space Station. Canadarm2 robotics systems currently under final development Topics from Testing, of the 6th International June 2001: Canadian Space Agency (CSA) Astronaut was then used for the first time to move astronauts and scheduled to be flown. Some of them are listed Proceedings of the 6th Symposium on Artificial Julie Payette became the first Canadian astronaut to different worksites around the newly installed below. International 5. Intelligence and Robotics to complete training on Canadarm2 operations. truss segment. 3 project is Symposium on Artificial & Automation in Space: Astronauts from around the world receive their The NASAan Robonaut anthropomorphic (robotic designastronaut) for EVA equivalence to Intelligence and Currently, ASTRIUM is working on a project for a i-SAIRAS 2001, Canadian training at the Mobile Servicing System Training June 2002: The 1450-kilogram aluminum Mobile overcome the limitations on the ISS SSRMS and Robotics & Automation mobile autonomous service and inspection system Space Agency, Québec, and Simulation Centre (MOTS) at CSA’s headquarters. Base System (MBS) built by MDRobotics under SPDM that require special alignment and grapple in Space: i-SAIRAS for the ISS (MISISS). This project was initiated by Canada,June 18-22, 2001 During the two-week session, they are trained by CSA contract was launched and installed on the fixtures and are too large to fit through EVA access 2001, Canadian Space the German Space Agency (DLR) as part of an ESA a team of expert robotics instructors to operate U.S.-built Mobile Transporter. For the first time, doors and corridors. Robonaut is human in size Agency, Québec, project. The experimental mobile Inspection and the Canadarm2 first and foremost. Future students Canadarm2 stepped off the Station’s laboratory with 43 degrees of freedom. It is the first humanoid Canada, June 18-22, Service System for the ISS will be used for inspection, 5 will also learn to operate the Mobile Base System module onto the MBS, a move that will greatly built for space and incorporates technology advances 2001 payload handling and mobility tasks (walking robots) (MBS) and eventually the Special Purpose Dexterous extend its reach. During this mission, astronauts in dexterous hands, modular manipulators, light- and will include an experimental demonstration of Manipulator (SPDM). also replaced a wrist roll joint that had been mal- weight materials, and telepresence control systems. D. King, Space a new robotic system and innovative technologies. functioning on Canadarm2. Unlike the shuttle’s The robotic hands are designed to handle EVA tools, Servicing: Past, Present DLR is also planning another demonstration mission, July 2001: Canadarm2 began its first operational Canadarm, the Station’s arm cannot be returned to including power tools, with human-like dexterity. and Future. Proceedings ROKVISS, in cooperation with Rosaviakosmos. ISS assembly task. Operated from inside the Interna- earth, so it was designed to be repaired on orbit. Robonaut will be tele-operated by an ISS astronaut of the 6th International ROKVISS is a lightweight two-joint space robot tional Space Station (ISS), Canadarm2 lifted the new utilizing telepresence technology such as head Symposium on Artificial 6,000 kg Station Airlock from the Shuttle payload June 2002: CSA and DLR (German Aerospace Centre) that will be tele-operated from the ground. CSA has Intelligence and mounted display helmets and4 of virtual the ISS reality represents gloves. bay and installed it on the Station’s Unity module. signed a MOU in space robotics covering Ground been invited to participate under the umbrella of Robotics & Automation a central component of the JEM’s Exposed Facility Operations and Robot Autonomy, and Space the newly signed Memorandum of Understanding. in Space: i-SAIRAS experimentThe Kibo Japaneseplatform. ExperimentalThe JEMRMS consistsModule Remoteof three March 2002: MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates Manipulator Dynamics, Simulation and Control 2001, Canadian Space majorManipulator subsystems, System the (JEMRMS)Console, the 10m, a 6 degree Ltd. was awarded a contract by Mitsubishi Heavy Implementation. DLR’s Institute of Robotics and The Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator (SPDM) Agency, Québec, of freedom Main Arm and the 2m, 6 degree of free- Industries to provide an interface that will allow Mechatronics is expending design and development is a dual-armed robot that will work in conjunction Canada, June 18-22, dom Small Fine Arm. The National Space Development Canadarm2 to assist in berthing the Japanese robotics efforts on a new generation of intelligent, with the Canadarm2 and will provide more intricate 2001 Agency of Japan (NASDA) began testing robot arms Transfer Vehicle (HTV) to the International Space multi-sensor ultra lightweight robots with articu- robotic maintenance capabilities on the Station. in May 2001. Station. The HTV is being developed by NASDA, lated hands and high level remote programmability Specifically, the SPDM will support maintenance (National Space Development Agency of Japan), to perform tasks in space. DLR’s first major expe- on the Space Station by handling, payloads, as one of their contributions to the ISS. The rience with space robotics was with ROTEX, the mechanical actuation of tie-down bolts and tool mechanism will utilize the same “capture and first remotely controlled robot in space; the company mechanisms, and temporarily accommodating release” interface developed by MDRobotics for gained its second big space robot experience with payloads on the SPDM body. The SPDM consists of the Canadarm2. NASDA’s ETS VII project, the first free-flying space two (2) seven (7) degree of freedom manipulator SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATIONrobot which was operational for around two years. arms, two (2)Global end effectors, Space one Sector at the end Market of each Trends And Drivers 73 MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS

crew size due to budgetary constraints will drive arm, an upper body structure fitted with two elec- capabilities and dynamics of the MSS as well as medium term: MSS operation and evolution (including the need for more autonomous and tele-operated tronics platforms and a lower body comprised of a the communication limitations. The central compo- Ground Facilities), Planetary Exploration, and robotic activities. Ground control development roll joint, a latching end effector, a tool holder nent of the testbed is the MSS operation and Space Servicing. must start now to ensure technology is ready assembly, an Orbital Replaceable Unit Temporary Training Simulator (MOTS): a real-time simulator and implemented in space by the time the MSS Platform and two camera/light assemblies. The currently used for MSS operator training and for MSS OPERATION AND EVOLUTION operations require it. SPDM is scheduled to be launched aboard the Space operation planning. However, a thorough evaluation Canada is responsible for the sustaining engineering In addition, enhancements will certainly be made Shuttle in 2005. of MSS ground operations has to be performed. and part of the operations planning of the MSS. to the ground support infrastructures in order to After the concept has been tested and proven in Opportunities for enhancement to the MSS and its increase the efficiency of operations planning, The Self-Adapting Robotic Auxiliary Hand (SARAH) a ground simulation, the next step in this research supporting infrastructure will undoubtedly arise as verification and training and to incorporate new is a novel design of a self-adaptive and reconfigu- will be the development of a flight experiment it enters its operational life. SSRMS and SPDM will technologies over the life of the International Space rable robotic hand for space applications. The 10 on the ISS, designed to conduct a portion of likely be required to perform off-nominal operations Station. The MSS Operation and Training Simulator degrees of freedom robotic hand consists of three operations from a ground station in collaboration for which new tools would be required. Already, fingers, each equipped with three phalanges. The with an on-board operator. (MOTS) will have to be updated to keep up with MARKET TRENDS MDRobotics has received CA$18 M in April 2002 in technology advances. The SPDM Task Verification fingers can grasp various shapes including cylindrical additional funding on two existing contracts from There have undoubtedly been successful missions Facility (STVF) will have to be modified to deal with and spherical geometries. The overall envelope of the Canadian Space Agency for logistical support and major advancements in space robotics and more complex situations. Modelling and simulation SARAH is similar to an astronaut’s glove. However, and engineering services to sustain the MSS. As well automation over the last few years including the of more complex phenomena like contact dynamics SARAH’s force capabilities are twice that of an as flight operation support activities currently being provision of the Canadarm2 and the Mobile Base and friction will be required. Evolution of MOTS and astronaut in any EVA activities. SARAH, a collabo- provided, MDRobotics also received a CA$38.5 M System for ISS that has established Canada as the STVF is key to preserving a Canadian leadership role rative effort between MDRobotics and Laval contract from NASA to provide continued engineering present world leader in space robotics. However, in MSS ground support infrastructure. University is being developed as a potential tool support to robotics elements on both the Shuttle the application of new and advanced robotics and for the Special Purpose Dextrous Manipulator (SPDM) and the ISS. automation technology in space, as well as the on the ISS to support increasingly complex dextrous The understanding of Canadarm2 and free-flyer major projects involving space robotics products dynamics requires highly qualified and well-trained robotic operations. SARAH’s possible Extra Vehicular One of the capabilities that will eventually be such as the unmanned Mars missions, have slowed operators. Experimental tests and analyses have Robotics (EVR) operations include: SPDM stabili- required is tele-operation from the ground. Crew down recently, mainly due to budgetary constraints shown that capture of free-flyers is the most zation when operating on the end of SSRMS in an time is a precious resource and astronauts will be within the major governmental space organizations. complicated task to be performed by a robotic unplanned environment, thermal blanket manipu- required to perform science experiments on-board operator on board the ISS. It is a critical operation lation, temporary ORU storage location and auxiliary the ISS. Studies have shown that the crew would However, recent press releases from the private and with high crew safety impact. The dexterity and ORU manipulation. not be able to keep up with the routine mainte- public sectors, including the CSA, indicate that accuracy of the astronauts may decrease over time nance demand, much less be able to perform science there are many new technologies being developed if they are not trained on-board. In that context, On the ground station side, CSA and MDRobotics experiments. The workload imposed on the crew that will be ready for applications in space in the an on-orbit simulator to keep the astronauts skills are jointly conducting research aimed at developing by maintenance operations of the ISS in its current short to mid-term timeframe. Three main areas of at the required level is certainly desired. In order an architecture to conduct some of the operations baseline configuration is not yet determined with space robotics activities have been identified as to support the training scenarios required for the of ISS robotic elements from a ground station. certainty but the risk remains of overloading very critical for technology development in the near to on-orbit training, a simulator has been developed A testbed on which ground control technologies precious human resources with tedious maintenance at the CSA. The main objectiveGlobal of the simulationSpace Sector Market Trends And Drivers 75 SPACE ROBOTICScan be tested AND has been developed AUTO at the CSA.MATION activities on-orbit. This is particularly true in the is to determine if an astronaut is ready to perform The testbed faithfully reproduces the interfaces, context of the ISS, where potential reduction of MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS

commercial venture. Effective and user-friendly simulation tools will be needed for the system design Other planetary bodies in the solar system are also and operation to reduce the cost and risks. an operation with Canadarm2. The training scenario targeted for planetary exploration missions in the The ESA AURORA Exploration Program is currently implemented by the SMP consists of capturing a near future: the Moon, Mercury and Venus are all the largest European effort for planetary exploration. In the last two decades, there has been a strong free-flyer with the Canadarm2. serious candidates as are some of the moons of the The AURORA long-term exploration scenario considers interest in servicing satellites in space. Unfor- outer planets (Europa and Titan) and the asteroid major missions which will require advanced space tunately, mainly due to economic reasons, in PLANETARY EXPLORATION belt. Private companies are now preparing explo- robotics and automation support. These missions particular, launching costs, satellites are still not The recent discovery of water on Mars as well as ration missions to various places in the solar system include a Mars Sample Return, a Moon Landing serviced in space, but simply replaced when they the successful landing of a small robotic probe called such as the Moon and Near-Earth Asteroids. This Mission, and a Robotic Outpost and Human Mission. become unusable. However, many countries are NEAR on the surface of an asteroid at nearly 322 will pave the way to the commercial exploitation CSA is a contributor to the AURORA program which reconsidering this possibility and are putting million kilometers away in February 2001, have of space resources. opens up space robotics opportunities for the together frameworks that would likely permit revived the zest for planetary exploration. The Canadian industry prepared to undertake these servicing satellites at a lower cost than replacing asteroid landing illustrated how a nimble and rela- In the long term, human planetary exploration new technological challenges. SPACE SERVICING them. The time is now ripe for the introduction tively inexpensive robot can extend the hands and missions to the Moon and Mars will become a reality. of remote manipulation technology in space and As demonstrated by the Shuttle Remote Manipulator eyes of humans to new corners of the solar system. Robots will certainly be required in the early phases modern spacecraft are now designed to be servi- System in the past two decades, the added capability Planetary exploration will represent an important of these programs to prepare for the arrival of astro- ceable in space. and versatility of a payload handling system on portion of upcoming robotic space missions. Without nauts and be required to assist during the operation an Orbital Vehicle are tremendous. Space servicing robots, space exploration will be very limited. And phases. Such missions would marry the expertise On-orbit servicing and assembly is now on the capabilities such as precision payload deployment this is even truer when it comes to the possibility developed by Canada on planetary exploration agenda of the major space agencies. The German missions to that acquired through human space and retrieval, on-orbit construction, EVA support, of commercial exploitation. Aerospace Center (DLR) and the CSA are organizing flight activities such as the shuttle and Space Station on-orbit checkout and payload repair have already the first bilateral Workshop on On-Orbit Servicing been performed. Such servicing capabilities will be Mars is the primary target of space exploration with programs. The robotics and automation industry in of Space Infrastructure Elements via Automation & required for future generations of Reusable Launch many missions planned in the near future: NASA’s Canada must prepare itself to embark upon these Robotics Technologies in November 2002 in Germany. and Space Vehicles. Mars Surveyor Program is slated to launch missions future missions. Already, the CSA and MDRobotics The workshop will address three major areas: to Mars every two years in the coming decade. The co-funded in June 2001 a CA$2.5 M project to technical developments to provide the means for Given the commercial nature of future Space Servi- landers of these missions will perform soil sample develop concepts for low-mass, low-power and unmanned on-orbit servicing of spacecraft, market cing applications, it is anticipated that the future collection for in-situ analyses and sample return, low-cost manipulators for use in future planetary and commercialization questions, and future nduct a feasibility on-orbit robotics systems will require higher opera- as well as executing a wide assortment of astro- exploration missions and to co programmatic orientation of agencies and industries. tional efficiency in an increasingly unstructured work biological, geophysical, meteorological and in-situ study for the development of a Sample Preparation The goal of the workshop is to discuss the on-orbit and Handling system based on Norcat’s drilling environment. Furthermore, on many occasions, space- resource utilisation experiments. In the medium servicing as a concept for new satellite development. technology. In parallel, a contract was awarded to crafts bearing robotic elements will be unmanned. term, missions to Mars will continue to be launched Therefore both representatives from the robotic Norcat to develop a prototype of a drill for planetary This will require technologies in autonomous and regularly and robotics will be an enabling technology industry and from the satellites community are exploration. Optech also worked on a feasibility semi-autonomous operations with as little human- for most of these missions. expected to participate in this event. This is clearly study for an Entry, Descent and Landing LIDAR. in-the-loop intervention as possible, adaptive becoming a new approach in satellite and on-orbit Recently, a CA$400,000 contract was awarded robotics interfaces to handle uncooperative payloads structure development. to MDR, to support the CSA in defining Canada’s and object recognition vision systems. All these SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATIONcontribution to the NASA-led Mars Science would lead to lower cost of operations for any Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 77 Laboratory mission. MARKETcontinue TRENDS to boom in Europe, showing an increase MARKET TRENDS of 11% over the same period in 2000. However, robot investments in North America fell by as much as 28% and by 10% in Asia mainly because of falling demand from the electronics and telecommunication- There is an increasing interest of the United States equipment industry. • operator training function under the direct control of a surgeon at Air Force (USAF) in space servicing, demonstrated • agriculture, and the robotic workstation who will have a virtual by their Orbital Express Program funded by the U.S. Of the total number of service robots for professional •medicine. sense of touch. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, (DARPA). use installed up to the end of 2000, underwater Within this program, systems will be developed to robots accounted for 29%. Demolition robots In 2001, the relationship between the space-based On the mining technology development side, Canada demonstrate autonomous techniques for on-orbit accounted for 22% and medical robots held 15% and terrestrial robotics sectors in Canada was weak, has long been a leader in mining technology deve- re-supplying, upgrading, refuelling and reconfigu- of the market share. Laboratory robots had a share but at least began to be exploited, more signifi- lopment. Developing technology for Mars exploration rating of satellites that could support a broad range of 10% while agriculture robots, mainly robot cantly than in 2000. There should be a much more will allow Canada to maintain its international of future US national security and commercial milking systems, made up 6%. These trends are concerted effort to encourage and facilitate joint reputation and status as the world leader in space space programs. expected to continue. In the period 2000 – 2003, discussion and activity between the two sectors. robotics. In parallel, the technologies under the stock of service (industrial plus domestic) robots Some spin-offs from the robotic technologies deve- development will enhance and further enable the Since space servicing is very likely to become a viable is expected to increase dramatically by 49,000 units. loped for space led to the development of new robots Canadian mining exploration industry to remain commercial sector for them, Canadian companies Service robots for professional use are to be found for use in underground mines, in the operating room globally competitive. MDA has acquired the assets have already invested and proposed concepts that mainly in the medical and underwater sectors, which and in remote handling of hazardous materials. Some of Automated Mining Systems (AMS) of Aurora, are part of the second phase of this program. In have 40% of the market respectively. examples, although not exhaustive, are listed below. Ontario, a supplier of electronic products designed May 2002, MDRobotics partnered with Boeing in to enable robotic operation of underground mining the development of robotics systems for the “Orbital Once again, as indicated in the Global Trends 2001 The field of surgical robotics represents a new, equipment. AMS has considerable expertise in under- Express” program. MDA will provide the robotics publication, with the lull in the demand for applica- long-term business opportunity to develop spin-offs ground mining tele-robotic systems and focuses system to capture satellites and perform servicing, tion of technological advances in robotics and of space technology. MDRobotics’ neurosurgery robot exclusively on the business of mine automation, a ground segment to monitor and control the robotic automation to space-based activities, and the boom is an excellent example of Government investments’ specifically in the supply of systems for remote operations, and all ORU containers and interfaces in the terrestrial robotics market, it would be worth- spin-offs through the Canadian Space Agency in the operation (from the surface) of underground mobile that will become standard on future missions. The while for space robotics companies to expend efforts design of leading-edge space robotics technologies. production equipment. This acquisition brings MDA’s totalTHE value SPACE-BASED/TERRESTRIAL of this effort could be as much as CA$12 M In March 2002, MDA signed a CA$6 M contract with robotics and software technology together with ROBOTICS RELATIONSHIP in applying existing and new (in the short-term) and is scheduled for launch in 2006. the University of Calgary to develop an advanced AMS’ experience, customers, and product, to create According to the World Robotics 2001 survey publi- technologies to terrestrial applications. While not robotic device for use in complex neurosurgical a business opportunity in the mining industry. shed by the United Nations Economics Commission all space-based and terrestrial sectors share the procedures. The contract is part of a CA$25 M robotic for Europe in cooperation with the International same requirements for robotics and automation products, there are some key areas that could benefit program funded by Western Economic Diversification NORCAT, the Northern Centre for Advanced Techno- Federation of Robotics, the total stock of operational from increased cooperation between the two sectors. Canada, the Seaman Family of Calgary, as well as logy Inc. demonstrated Canadian drilling technology industrial robots worldwide in 2000 was estimated These include: with additional private funding. A team of MDA that could be used in a future mission to collect at 750,000 units, of which 389,000 were in Japan, • simulation technology engineers is working with surgeons from the Seaman samples on Mars. Not only has NORCAT developed 198,000 were in the European Union and 90,000 • mining Family MR Research Centre to create the “neuroArm”, a new robotics mining technology, which will allow were in North America. In spite of the recession • waste remediation an advanced robotic system that will enhance the for safer operations underground it has gone further in the first half year 2001, robot investments quality, accuracy, and efficiency of neurosurgical by pioneering a drilling platform for Mars exploration. procedures. The robotic system will consist of NORCAT is a not-for-profit, non-share corporation SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION two robotic arms, each with at least 6 degrees of formed in partnership with CambrianGlobal College Space of Sector Market Trends And Drivers 79 freedom, and a third arm equipped with two cameras Applied Arts and Technology in Sudbury, Ontario. providing 3-D stereoscopic views. The system will NORCAT assists the Province’s forestry, mining and WHAT TO EXPECT WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS

FIGURE A 6 Canadian Space mineral, and northern construction sectors by WHAT TO EXPECT Agency, Space providing a single access point to companies and IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS PRIORITY AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGIES Technology Roadmap entrepreneurs for training, technology transfer, and Space Servicing (Robotics Systems for • Capture & Docking Mechanisms, product development. Currently, NORCAT is conduc- Document, Canadian NEAR TERM Reusable Space and Launch Vehicles) End Effectors Space Agency, Space ting a feasibility study for the Canadian Space Agency Canada has been successful in capturing a fair • Docking Simulation/Emulation Technologies Report, on how Canadian expertise in mining could play a market share of the world’s space robotics and & Control • Vision System• Autonomous Operations October 2002. role in exploring the red planet. automation activities. Even with current projections suggesting that demand for space robotics products Small Robotic Arm for Future Missions • Advanced Small Robot Arm Design R&D CONTINUES (i.e. Mars Exploration) • Autonomous Operation and services will increase in the near future, it is The Space Technology branch of the Canadian Space relatively difficult to forecast the future market Mobile Servicing System (MSS) Evolution • Ground Control of space-based assets; Agency and other Canadian companies are currently • Force/Moment Control; for the space robotics and automation industry’s involved in projects intended to open new oppor- products and services. Ground Support Facilities • Real-Time Simulation tunities for space robotics. Active research is • Contact Dynamics Simulation currently being pursued in the following areas: • Control for Hardware-in-the-Loop The focus for robotics and automation technologies •Vision Systems for Space Simulation for space applications in the near future is on R&D •Ground Control of Space Robot in the areas identified in Figure A and projects asso- • SPDM Task Verification Facility ciated with MSS operation and evolution (including serious discussions regarding the reduction of crew Satellite servicing will become increasingly important •Advanced Design for Robotic Systems Ground Facilities), Planetary Exploration, and 6 size due to budgetary constraints will drive the need to the space industry, especially as the costs for •Advanced Simulation Tools cur- Space Servicing. for more autonomous and tele-operated robotic satellite servicing and launching decrease over time •Activities in planetary exploration. rently being developed by CSA, the efficiency of conducting operations of the MSS will by 2010 have activities at an increased frequency. and as the number of satellites in orbit steadily According to the Space Technology Roadmap increases. This is an area where investment in the Through the Strategic Technologies Development been increased by controlling many operations from The same report also indicates that robots will development of related robotics and automation Program (STDP), CSA is looking at co-managing the ground. The MSS will be equipped with dextrous be used to collect samples on the surface of Mars. technologies (such as vision sensors, general auto- technology development projects in Robotics and end effectors to assist operators during EVAs and They will be used to perform in-situ analyses of mated rendezvous and docking, simulation, and Automation for future space applications and for artificial vision will help provide some amount of the properties of the soil, atmosphere, radiation tele-robotic technologies) would be liable to produce spinning-off these technologies to terrestrial appli- autonomy. There will be an increasing emphasis environment, etc. Operations will be planned by a a sustainable commercial benefit if approached cations. CSA is also supporting new technology placed on the development of technologies asso- team of operators located on Earth and executed strategically and managed properly. development through internal R&D, matrix support ciated with the operations of space-based robotic autonomously by the robots located on the remote to other sectors, small feasibility study contracts systems (simulation for mission planning and operator/ground support training, tele-operation, planet. Both planetary robotic applications and The development of overall robotic systems for solar and collaboration with companies. FIGURE A autonomous operation, etc.) as more robotic orbital robotic applications will operate semi- system exploration would be a high-risk venture autonomously under supervised control from a in terms of potential commercial benefit. While The technology thrusts and priorities currently under systems are placed in space and the demand on ground-based operator. appealing to the imagination and to the public in consideration for future automation and robotics their capabilities and services increases. This is general, obstacles such as cutting-edge international activities are provided in . particularly true in the context of the ISS, where competition, few actual solar system exploration SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 81 WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT FEW Let’sYEARS consider... CONCLUSIONS Around 2010-2020, it is expected that orbital space- craft (or a constellation of spacecrafts) will perform Synthetic Aperture Radar imaging of the Martian subsurface using ground-penetrating radar. During the same period, orbiting spacecraft will perform missions, and little experience in the development operate on mission objectives and to plan operations TECHNOLOGY REQUIREMENTS high spatial resolution, high spectral resolution, and operation of these types of systems, place locally thereby maximizing the scientific return. The technology requirements for Canada to meet the hyperspectral imaging of the surface of Mars. Canada in a position where it would have difficulty Advanced mobility concepts would be used to near and long term predictions as presented above Scientists will then have a detailed mineralogical competing in this small market. A reasonable increase the coverage of robotic explorers: large are summarized in FIGURE on B page 86. map of the surface of Mars and could perform site approach to maintaining an active role in solar powerful rovers carrying smaller specialized rovers selection for future missions with a high degree of system exploration/exploitation missions would be that could walk over rough terrain and rappel down confidence. Infrastructures to mine and to process CONCLUSIONS to capitalize on existing niche technologies (vision cliffs. To extend their geographical reach, mobile resources will be planned and implemented to gene- The years 2001 and 2002 were marked by the sensors, simulation, tele-operation) for providing robots would be combined with aerobots and rate fuel, metals, oxygen and water. successful provisioning of the Canadarm2 system the robotic sub-systems or operations technologies. have the capability to fly to geologically diverse including the SSRMS and the Mobile Base System, But that does not exclude the potential for Canada locations on Mars. By 2015-2020, an optical communication infras- which together act as a sophisticated robotic to capture a sizeable part of the action; it is possible tructure for deep space missions would be put in system critical to the assembly, maintenance and to conceive of a Canadian robot performing a Beyond 2020, commercial ventures will be pros- place. Deep-space probes would communicate with servicing of the International Space Station. This mission on a remote planet as a reality. pecting and extracting natural resources in-situ on LONG TERM the ground through Earth-orbiting relays encoding system, representing some of the most advanced celestial bodies. In-situ resource utilisation will As predicted in Global Trends 2001, in the longer command, telemetry and data streams on a laser robotics in the world, has reaffirmed Canada’s repu- have started locally on the planets being explored, term, the bulk of robotic and automation products beam. This would allow a significant increase in the tation as a leader in robotics technology and now but also on near-Earth asteroids in search of water will be required for satellite servicing, solar system transmission data rate and support for the transfer gives us the opportunity to consolidate our exper- for usage in space and possibly precious metals exploration/exploitation, and assembly of large, of larger amounts of information. tise and to contemplate new challenges. for use on Earth. Space manufacturing plants will complex structures (manned bases, mining com- produce simple structures for assembly of spacecrafts plexes, space electrical power systems, etc.) in Beyond 2020, colonies of robots would work toge- Also noticeable in 2001-2002, was the rappro- to continue further exploration activities and create space and on the lunar or martian surfaces. While ther towards various space applications (on-orbit chement between the space-based and terrestrial economic value added activities in space. satellite servicing and solar system exploration/ construction of spacecrafts and large orbiting robotics sectors in Canada. It is still a timid tie exploitation activities are currently being pursued structures). Automatic extraction and processing between the two sectors, but certainly stronger than Around 2030-2040, Mars will now be the stage of with current technologies and some development plants would exploit resources on near-Earth in previous years. Some spin-offs from the robotic manned missions. Robots will have prepared the of new technologies, the assembly of large structures asteroids and comets as well as on planets being technologies developed for space have led to the arrival of humans to Mars by assembling habitats in space is an effort that requires – and will explored by astronauts. Robots will be essential development of new robots for use in underground and extracting from the Martian soil and atmosphere, therefore drive – major advances in robotics and assistants to astronauts in their EVAs. These appli- mines, in the operating room and in remote handling the oxygen and water for life support systems as automation technology. cations would require a very high level of robot of hazardous materials. There should be a much more 6, presenting a vision well as the fuel necessary for the return trip. Robots autonomy as well as the capability to self-repair concerted effort to encourage and facilitate joint of the potential future of space robotics and auto- will be used as sidekicks to astronauts to assist The paragraphs below are excerpts from the CSA and to re-organise themselves automatically. Net- discussion and activity between the two sectors. mation. However, it is worth noting that at present them in the conduct of scientific experiments on Space Technology Roadmap works of robotic explorers would travel kilometres there are no concrete missions planned for most of the surface of Mars. They will also be used as away from the lander and have the capability to these scenarios. vehicles to transport the astronauts and to provide specialized instruments and tools. They will operate autonomously based on voice commands SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION from astronauts. Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 83 CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS

At the dawn of the new millennium, the use of The CSA, along with Canada’s space industry, must The development of a high-level strategy for space Acknowledgements robotics technology in space is still at its infancy. continue to carry out extensive R&D in space robotics robotics and automation in Canada is critical to The author would like to acknowledge the contri- Space robots are extremely expensive to design, and automation as it anticipates a growing presence accomplish these actions. Canada has attained a bution and support from Drs. Jean-Claude Piedboeuf built and operate. A real breakthrough in the utili- of Canadian technologies that go beyond classical good international reputation in the space robotics and Erick Dupuis of the CSA Space Technologies zation of space relies mainly on the reduction of manipulator applications. Continued investment by and automation industry but will not be able to take group, as well as Dr. Michael Stieber and Mr. Eric costs associated with these systems and on advances CSA and the space industry in cutting edge tech- advantage of the technical advances it has made White, of the CSA, Space Systems group for their in inexpensive reliable space transportation from nology development reinforces Canada’s leadership or the human resources it has developed, and will participation in the preparation of this chapter. Earth. This can only be achieved by continuous and innovation in space robotics, and opens up definitely not be able to maintain the forefront in research, development and improvement of new growing opportunities in commercial markets requi- space robotics without a solid strategy for the technologies in space robotics. ring this advanced technology. It will prepare Canada future. The development and implementation of to play a key role in international missions as the a high level strategic plan should be led by the This is a crucial time in Canada for robotics in space world space community focuses its attention on CSA in conjunction with government agencies, and automation. The International Space Station the exploration of Mars and other targets in our industry and academia and be geared towards Sylvie Béland eng, Ph.D is being built and space robotics will play a major solar system. quick implementation. External Relations role for assembly, maintenance and scientific payload Canadian Space Agency manipulation. The exploration of planets and their The list of actions that the Canadian Government The Space Robotics and Automation strategy for moons, asteroids, and comets commands more and and Canadian industry need to undertake in the Canada should encompass R&D areas that will provide Tel: (450) 926-4325 more our attention. Space servicing of satellites near-term were outlined in Global Trends 2001. the greatest benefit to both space and terrestrial Fax: (450) 926-4362 and space construction of large structures present They are reinforced here as still applicable: applications, space and terrestrial robotics industries Email: [email protected] new opportunities. The focus for robotics and auto- 1. Effectively manage resources (human, financial, relationships, involvement of academia and plans mation technologies for space applications in and facility) during the current lull in the for demonstrating Canadian innovation utilizing the near and medium term is on R&D and projects application of space robotics and automation current resources (human and facility). associated with MSS operation and evolution (inclu- technologies. ding Ground Facilities), Planetary Exploration, and 2. Maximize utilization of current Canadian techno- Space Servicing. logy (MSS, robotic simulations, tele-operation, ground infrastructure, etc.) to continue to underscore the effectiveness and importance of Canadian capabilities in the area of space robotics and automation. 3. Prepare niche technologies for Canada to apply in the future. 4. Pave the way for these niche technologies to be used profitably in terrestrial applications. 5. Ensure that Canada is at the international forefront SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATIONin providing these niche technologies. Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 85 CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS

FIGURE B TECHNOLOGY REQUIREMENTS TECHNOLOGY REQUIREMENTS (continued)

0-10 years 10-20 years 20-30 years 30 years + 0-10 years 10-20 years 20-30 years 30 years + • Micro-robots Miniaturization High-Speed Data • Optical Inter- • Miniaturized Communication satellite and sampling systems Broadband Sensors and • Artificial vision • Autonomous • On-board Deep-space Data Processing for unstructured recognition of Remote Sensing Communication environments scientifically Data Processing Links interesting • Global localization • High-speed features on planetary modulator- Surface demodulator • High sensitivity (with coding) optical detectors • THyperspectralechniques Data • High power Compression laser sources solid-state Intelligent •Ground control • Network robotics/ • Distributed • Human-Robot Systems with supervised multi-agent Processing Cooperation Spacecraft/ • Mechanisms • High-precision • High-Performance, • Robotically Space Resistant pointing Radiation-tolerant serviceable autonomy collaboration between Spacecrafts Exploration to Planetary (attitude control) Electronics systems • Navigation in • Resource sharing – • Spacecraft Vehicle Environments • Formation unknown terrain Sensor Fusion Networking Technologies • Planetary Flying •Autonomous • Self-diagnostics Protection operationsand navigation planning • Fault-tolerant systems and repair Methodologies Structures •Very Large Membrane Robotics • High payload/ • Alternative • Heavy and Long Duty • Human-friendly Antennas mass ratio mobility concepts Mechanisms robotics manipulators • Aerobots • Drilling, resource • Dextrous Innovative • Alternate power • In-Situ Resource • Radiation Protection • Sample Handling extraction end-effectors Technologies sources Utilization/ for Astronauts and Processing Transformation during Deep Space Systems • Space Manufacturing Missions • Subsurface • Magnetic Propulsion sampling/Drill • Wheeled mobile robots

SPACE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 87 table of contents

INTRODUCTION 90

MARKET CHARACTERISTICS 90

MAJOR EVENTS OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002 99

MARKET TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES 105

Prepared by: WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS 119

Mark Burbidge,

External Relations

SATELLITE NAVIGATION INTRODUCTION MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

For the most part, detailed technical information is avoided, although certain specifications on satellite Although estimates fluctuate between analysts, there navigation systems are provided as they may pertain is a consistently rosy portrait of the GNSS market to market and technology development issues. Readers 1 Professor Vidal The 2002 chapter on satellite navigation provides an in popularity, with technology as simple as a in the years to come: July 1, 1991] are invited to refer to the footnoted sources for Ashkenazi, CEO of overview of the Global Navigation Satellite System pendant tucked into a child’s schoolbag or worn •Frost & Sullivan estimatedin support the ofNorth Operation American elaboration on technical, as well as political issues 4. Nottingham Scientific Ltd. (GNSS) sector, market estimates and drivers, headline on an older person’s wrist GPS market generatedDesert US$3.19 Storm B (notin revenues in news, the evolution of the satellite systems, and coincidentally the same speaking at the Similar to most estimates, ABI indicated that this 2001, an increase of 27% over 2000 which regis- what to expect in the next few years. It is designed 2 time Europe saw the Institute of Navigation . growth trend will continue to move in a sharply tered US$2.5 B in revenues to provide Canadian industry with strategic and timely need for it to have its 5 (ION) GPS 2001 upward direction, particularly in the area of higher . They project revenues information on a sector that continues to expand own global satellite Conference, Salt Lake volume consumer products including: asset tracking/ to reach US$7.4 B by 2006, compared to their in terms of revenues, technology advancements and MARKET CHARACTERISTICS navigation system). City, U.S.A. Reported in fleet management, in-vehicle navigation, recreational estimate of US$4.6 B for 2006 just one year ago FIGURE B converging applications. The GNSS market remains strong as geospatial tech- Turning off the S/A ION Newsletter (Vol. 11, vehicles and land markets. (see ). nologies become increasingly mature, converged, • Similarincreased returns accuracy are recorded by by Merryll Lynch who 2No. 3, Fall 2001). INTRODUCTION (see Driving factors include: and integrated into conventional technologies estimatesas much that as ten-foldthe GPS industry will rise to US$76. B To cite a leading expert in the field: “Over the FIGURE A . While) complicating the life of market •The integration into the cellular phone market, and beyond. 4 The author would like past 25 years, GPS has moved from a purely analysts, the technology convergence phenomenon with E911 availability required by the U.S. Federal by• 2007,ABI points at an outannual that growth although rate the of U.S.14% currently to thank those military satellite navigation system to an indis- translates into new products, value-added services Communications Commission (FCC) to be in the dominates the GPS hardware and software market, Cited in “Terrorism individuals who took pensable positioning and timing tool for hundreds and business models involving traditional and non- hands of 95 percent of wireless users by the end with a 65% market share, non-U.S. producers Attacks Accelerate the time to review and of civilian scientific, engineering, navigation and traditional users. of 2005, will bring GPS closer to the average will further capture a larger portion of the lucra- Interest in provide feedback on positioning applications,” adding that “GPS is citizen over the course of the next few years. tive market and may account for half of the GPS Applications”, this chapter, notably now poised to play a leading1.” role in the emerging From a business perspective, the increased accuracy •GPS-enabled timing devices, used to mark and equipment by 2005. According to ABI analyst SpaceDaily Web Site, Stéphane Corbin (CSA), info-mobility society in the GPS signal, made possible by the U.S. decision coordinate numerous functions, are being em- Bill Britton, the world market for GPS equipment This chapter is divided into four sections, each inten- 3, has helped to transform “P” for positioning 11 Dec. 2001. http:// Ray Guillemette (CSA) to remove the Selective Availability (S/A) in May ployed to an increasing degree by e-commerce will stand at US$34 B by 2006 and as much as 5 ded to provide strategic market-oriented information into “P” for profit. Advancements to satellite-based and Prof. Richard B. 2000 and internet providers in addition to telecom- Uwww.spacedaily.com/S$41 B should the world economies recover for Canadian industry – the main stakeholder. Section augmentation systems are also improving the accuracy Langley (Department of munications and entertainment companies to fromnews/gps-01s.html their current slump. The 7U.S.. and Japan One addresses market characteristics (trends, drivers and ensuring the integrity of signals coming from Geodesy and Geomatics manage broadcasts and “handoffs”. will continue their leadership roles in system 3 and restraints) starting with the overall market and GPS satellites. Market estimates Engineering at •Progress in Ground-based Augmentation Systems •Thedevelopment Office of Commercialisation and manufacturing of the U.S. State moving into the various SatNav fields – land, aviation, In December 2001, (ABI) Allied Business sourced from the University of Department indicates a weakening dominance 6 (GBASs) and Space-based Augmentation Systems FIGURE C maritime, military and timing. Section Two lists news- Intelligence released a report entitled “GPS World Frost & Sullivan New Brunswick). (SBASs): LAAS and WAAS in the U.S. by U.S. suppliers (see ). According worthy developments in the SatNav sector, with a Markets 2002: Prospects for Satellite Navigation “North American •A heightened focus on military and national secu- to their reports, the U.S. held a 65% share of the particular focus on headlines involving Canadian and Locator Applications,” in which they forecast GPS Markets” (© 2002). 8. 7 S/A is the intentional rity operations, which led to the inception of total GPS market in 1996, down to 52% in 2001 companies. Section Three provides details on each an increasing role for GPS in what they termed the •ESA reported similarly strong growth in the GNSS degradation of the GPS from the outset, are poised to drive positio- and a further decline to 50% by 2002 of the global satellite navigation systems (GPS, new “alert” society. The report states that one of marketplace:Merryll Lynch in Report; 1998, the GPS receiver market civilian signal. It had ning technologies to a new level due in large part GLONASS, Beidou and Galileo), key developments the most important emerging GPS initiatives is alone9 April was 2001. estimated at US$2 B with growth expec- been implemented by to the post 9/11 market realities. 9. and potential opportunities. Finally, the chapter the U.S. in 1990 on all the wireless E911 mandate. In addition, other tations as high as US$30 B by 2005 concludes with a snapshot of what to expect in the “Terrorism Attacks GPS Block 2 satellites, GPS-based “people-tracking” devices are gaining short and medium future. Accelerate Interest in and had actually been GPS Applications”, ibid. set to zero in Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 91 SATELLITESeptember 1990 [S/A NAVIGATION was off between about August 10, 1990 and MARKET CHARACTERISTICS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

FIGURE A FIGURE B 8 “Trends in Space 12 “Will Telematics Be Commerce”, Office of GLOBAL REVENUES OF GPS EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES: 2001-2007 NORTH AMERICAN GPS MARKET REVENUE FORECASTS: 1998-2008 the Springboard to Space Commercialisation, Recovery?” By David Total $US Revenues per year (in millions) Revenues ($ Million) U.S. Department of Bursky in Electronic Commerce. Prepared Design, 24 June 2002, 12,000 12,000 by Futron Corporation p. 20. 10,000 10,000 (©2001). 13 9 8,000 8,000 “Navigating the 6,000 6,000 “Satellite Navigation 4,000 4,000 future of telematics: and Location Systems, 2,000 2,000 Canadian buyers slow in: Space Benefits for 0 0 to accept high-tech Humanity in the 21st 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 communications”, Century.”European by Max Wickens, Source: Frost & Sullivan© 2002 Space Agency Source: Int’l Space Business Council© 2002 Toronto Star, 14 background papers at December 2001. 10UNISPACE III; 1999; L-Commerce may be among the main driving forces behind overall Still, recent news has taken some of the wind out pp. 101-104. LAND APPLICATIONS Quoted in “What is L-commerce (Location-based mobile commerce) is economic recovery, given the forces of the automotive of high-sailing expectations. In June 2002, Ford Among the main GPS markets (see FIGURE D) , Automotive Telematics also well “positioned ” to bring GPS-enabled techno- and communications industries and the converging pulled out of Wingcast LLC, its joint venture with the Land market remains far ahead of the pack with 12 Trends in Space logies closer to consumers on the immediate horizon. . Analysts point to the and Why Is It Sick?” 10 . of the two under Telematics Qualcomm Inc. to produce telematics services in Commerce, Office of close to 75% of total GPS market share in 2000 fact that only 1.5% of U.S. cars (typically luxury by Dan Keegan on The North American Land-based revenues grew 30% In fact, some industry observers predict that it will vehicles, due to what the company viewed as chan- 15 11Space Commercialization, models) are equipped with vehicle navigation www. drivers.com in 2001 with US$2.28 B in revenues. Within the exceed M-commerce (accessing the Internet using ging technology and changing customer desires. Department of systems in 2002, compared with 7% in Europe and (17 June 2002) land applications group, asset tracking, fleet mana- the cellular phone) in overall market presence. While The President and CEO of Wingcast, Harel Kodesh, Commerce, USA © 2001/2 25% in Japan. 14 gement and in-vehicle navigation are among the the issue of Big Brother remains the subject of heated told a conference audience that “telematics,” a statement is not echoed “Too Much Car largest GPS application markets in North America, debate between consumer rights and privacy advo- a get-rich-quickby other market proposition observers; “The car companies “Availability Enables In a recent Toronto Star article, Chet Huber, President Gadgetry?” by Jerry with combined forecasted 2002 revenues of US$1.9 B. cates, location technology vendors and wireless envision that they would own and operate telematic New Business Models in carriers, the technologies are ramping up to market. of OnStar, a wholly-owned subsidiary of General services and bring in a huge stream of money… Flint at Forbes.com; These two markets are expected to account for close In-Vehicle Navigation Tracking and Telematics 11 . Motors and a leading telematics provider in the U.S., 28 May 2002 to 60% of all GPS revenues in 2008, up from the Telematics – GPS/wireless-enabled location-specific I don’t know what will happen in the future… I’m Markets” by Ron Stearns, explained that the company has seen a 250% increase (http://www.forbes.com/ current 50% in 2002 security, information, productivity, and in-vehicle also sure that while car companies may eventually15 .” Senior Strategic Analyst, in the subscriber base13 in 2001 alone, and anticipates 2002/05/28/0528flint entertainment services to drivers and passengers – .” make big profits on telematics, it won’t be easy Frost & Sullivan US$ 8B global market ending the calendar year 2001 with almost two .html) is projected to grow into an (May 2002) by 2004. Some have even predicted that the sector million subscribers

SATELLITE NAVIGATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 93 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

FIGURE C FIGURE D 16 “Navigating the 17 see “GPS and future of telematics”, GPS MARKET TRENDS: 1996-2002 GLOBAL SPACE SEGMENT REVENUE SHARE Aviation Safety” in GPS North American GPS Market Share 2000 ibid. World, 1 October 2001 Rest of World Prod. Revenues < 1% U.S. Producer Revenues World Prices 8%

450 9% 7% 400 72% 350 83% 8% 300 250 6% 200 7% 150 100 50 0 SatCom 83% Remote Sensing < 1% Land 72% Timing 6% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Space Transportation 8% GPS 9% Aviation 7% Military 8% Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce© 2002 Marine 7% Drivers: •Unrivalled land-based unit potential Source: Global Segment: Trends in Space Commerce, Office of Space Commercialization, Departmeent of Commerce, USA, 2001 • Affordable chip sets North American Segment: Frost & Sullivan The situation is similar in Canada, Canadians being Restraints: •Integration into brand-name GPS-enabled products more conservative in terms of early market adoption •Advancements in GPS technologies face high • Miniaturization of GPS technologies of technology gadgetry. One reason forwarded by a levels of consumer ignorance AVIATION APPLICATIONS market observer is that “perhaps [Canada’s] road • Improved accuracy via DGPS (In Canada, it is •High integration costs, notably in the The grotesque transformation of aircraft into weapons system is so simple that motorists have trouble referred to as the Canada-wide Differential GPS automotive and asset tracking markets of mass destruction on September 11, 2001 heigh- getting lost. So they find it hard to justify spending (CDGPS) Service, operated by the Government of • Slow pace of integration tened interest in how GPS could support airline CA$1,000 to CA$5,000 on an electronic navigation British Columbia and sponsored by the Government •High costs of education and awareness initiatives safety and other issues related to national security. 16 system when a few dollars will buy all the paper maps .” of Canada, the ten Provinces, and the Territory Bottom line, the article concludes, is that “carmakers • In Canada, much of the country remains unmapped Among the priorities: applying GPS to regain control anyone could need to drive from sea to shining sea of Nunavut; n.b. the Canadian Coast Guard also aren’t rushing to invest in navigational technology digitally and associated costs are prohibitive of an aircraft that has fallen into the wrong hands has a DGPS service, transmitted by terrestrial for the Canadian market, and Canadians aren’t showing and to safely land the aircraft at the nearest suita- low and medium-frequency beacons. Also, various ” that would allow the much interest, either. So it’s likely to be a while ble airport. Other considerations: equipping aircrafts ” private sector companies offer services in Canada with pilota “dead-man to turn overswitch navigational control to an on- before we see many cars with this equipment. 17 via terrestrial or satellite transmitters) board GPS-based autolanding system .

SATELLITE NAVIGATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 95 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS MARKET CHARACTERISTICScould provide close air support to troops on the Restraints: ground is a remarkable thought. Even as recently •Weak aviation market as 10 years ago when we were involved in the Gulf • Costs of installation War, such a thought would not have occurred. • Slow pace of R&D and user adoption •Unlikely adoption of GPS as sole navigation tool 18 Canadian officials For any aircraft navigation system to function effec- MILITARY MARKET 20 “Milspace Comes of are examining the tively using GPS, significant progress is still required Underneath the world of civil GPS applications lies Age In Fighting Terror: possibility of linking in the ongoing field testing of the U.S. FAA’s dual Space takes center stage a system that began and remains a military space- ” stations in Canada to GPS-based navigational systems: the Wide Area based infrastructure designed to support warfighting in combat operations the U.S. WAAS network Augmentation System (WAAS) that will enable aircraft activities. More than ever, advanced GPS-enabled Improvements, thus opportunities, are imminent. and becomes a using identical to reach the so-called Category 1 decision point in weaponry is providing the military corps with the Gen. Ralph Eberhart, commander in chief of North laboratory for military MARINE MARKET technologies to ensure an approach to an airport (to provide navigational combative advantage in the field, for use in missile American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. transformation”, seamless operations. accuracy to within 3.5 meters), and the Local Area The GPS Marine Market, similar in size to the Aviation guidance to search and rescue of downed crews, to Space Command, questioned at the February confe- Aviation Week & Space 19 Augmentation System (LAAS) that would enable market, is awash with new products ranging from troop positioning. rence on National Defense Industrial Association’s Technology, aircraft to reach the ground in zero visibility, known hand-held GPS/radio beacons to onboard marine Frost & Sullivan Science and Engineering Technology whether “[the 218 April 2002. (© 2002) as a Category 3B landing. The troubled WAAS program, positioning and navigation systems that provide The Gulf War in 1991 led military leaders to the U.S.]…realizes” howIn regards very important to improvements GPS has beenhe said in the subject of much criticism, more studies and impressive accuracy. The influx of new products conti- realization that space-based systems provided an thisthat decade. “We’re taking what’s required and bettering it “US Space Commander 18 . lengthy delays, is to be commissioned in late 2003 nues to drive down prices while increasing use and by half. That doesn’t mean we’re bettering bombs by Charts Future Course”, effective means of collecting and disseminating 21 for precision navigation and landing, but a date for .” consumer awareness – among the foremost constraints information to support command and control ope- half, but any errors that occur won’t be due to GPS SpaceDaily, 8 Feb. 2002, CategoryThe 1 arrivaloperations of GPS-enabled is still unknown aviation is simply a ques- in the GPS marketplace. Frost & Sullivan noted an rations of frontline commanders. Not long after, As noted in a recent publication, “Most observers http://www.spacedaily tion of time. GPS-enabled navigational initiatives 11% growth in the N.A. GPS Marine market in 2001, military failures in Somalia further underscored the acknowledge that the military establishment as a 22.com/news/milspace-02d will simply spur product development and thus at US$231 M, and forecasts a rise in revenues to need for more advanced weaponry and equipment whole lags far behind the commercial industry in .html revenue curves. On the whole, the North American US$417 M by 2008. Drivers: capable of pinpointing position and communicating the availability of state-of-the-art GPS receivers. GPS General Aviation market grew19 nearly. Annual 10% growth in •Integration with other ship-board systems movement. It resulted in a concerted effort, and The fielding of military Precise Positioning Service “SAASM and Direct P(Y) r2001ates arewith forecast revenues at ofclose US$217.9 to 6%, M with maximum to spur growth increased budgets, among allied military leaders, (PPS) receivers has improved recently, but equipping Signal Acquisition”, future market revenues of US$323.8 M in 2006. • DGPS infrastructure expansion ensures particularly those in the U.S., to further integrate, of U.S. and allied military forces with the new GPS World, July 2002, 22 Drivers: availability and accuracy operationalize – thus militarize – space systems into Selective Availability Anti-Spoofing Module.” (SAASM) Vol. 13, No. 7. • GPS-enabled navigation initiatives spur product •Growth in recreational marine markets that the battlefield. hardware needs to be expedited The increased role of space-based systems in battle- development use GPS technologies field management has translated into a robust GPS • Demand for GPS technologies to address aviation •Hydrographic survey/mapping in When forces moved into Afghanistan in the campaign military market poised for growth. In 2001, the and national security issues continuing demand against Al Qaeda extremists, commanders and troops market was forecast at US$265 M with revenue • Falling prices moved and communicated with a level of speed and 20 .” The testimonial was echoed by Peter growthof 22%. It is forecasted to rise to US$878 M •Gradual GPS data integration into avionic Restraints: precision simply unimaginable a decade earlier. B. Teets, Air Force undersecretary and director of by 2008. Driving this revenue growth are advan- technologies and infrastructures • Low adoption rates for new GPS technologies One Marine general stated that, “[space]…made the the National Reconnaissance Office, who stated, “I’d cements in existing military GPS applications, and • Fixed number of water craft may hinder growth big difference in this war. We used to measure our have to say [GPS] is the single biggest contribution the R&D of next-generation systems. support with a calendar, and now we’re using a • Price: marine handhelds can be more expensive to the war. The very idea that a B-52 (Stratofortress) stopwatch than other recreational handhelds or a B-1 (Lancer) flying around at 50,000 feet altitude • Low consumer awareness

SATELLITE NAVIGATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 97 MAJOR EVENTS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002 Drivers:

• Synchronization/orientation of communication/ 23 A comprehensive Current and future GPS-related applications GPS satellites continuously communicate position 24 In Canada, the 23 : relative navigation networks (EPLRS-Army, • Regulation will increasingly require precise overview of GPS include and time codes to earth reception stations. Positions Geodetic Survey Division, •Assisted-GPS for tactical indoor applications, JTIDS-Navy/AF) timing capabilities 27 military products and are calculated by measuring the arrival times of in conjunction with the e.g. in counter-terrorism •Tracking radiosondes for weather forecasting and • Bandwidth expansion broadens potential number initiatives is outlined signals from a formation of GPS satellites (ideally Geological Survey of •Anti-submarine warfare sea state determination of users in “ Guiding Weapons, four or more satellites in view), thereby neces- Canada, operates the • Common grid (Military Grid Reference System/ •Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) — e.g. Global • Falling costs – availability of signal providers Finding Soldiers” in sitating near precise timing data. To meet such Canadian Active Control enables affordable subscription use US National Grid): facilitate its nationwide use Hawk ”) is kept within 1 GPS World, August 2002 requirements, the GPS control system’s composite System (CACS). It for joint operations with civil emergency respon- Drivers: microsecond of the U.S. Naval Observatory’s Master •Technology convergence expected to expand Showcase issue, master clock (i.e., “paper clock comprises a Master ders in homeland security environment • Escalating reliance on GPS-enabled technologies services to the wireless marketplace Clock which is the official time-keeper for the U.S. Active Control Station Vol. 13, No. 8. Restraints: • Determination of remote locations by forward • GPS increasingly meeting military demands • Alternative options for timing: GPS-aided timing (MACS) and a network observers — e.g. by using field glasses equipped for location and targeting capabilities Block 2/2As each have four atomic clocks on board; not always the first option of 25 continuously with GPS and laser telemeters — for determining •Increased rate of integration of GPS Block 2Rs have only 3 clocks. Each clock is closely • Level of precision GPS can provide not operating GPS data enemy target coordinates, precision insertion and into battlefield managemenflt systems monitored by the U.S. Air Force Space24 Commandto determine at always necessary acquisition stations, operation of special forces, etc. Schrieverthe precise Air positionForce Base of eachin Colorado satellite through the •High costs of integration, installation called Active Control • Electronically steered antennas Restraints: network of monitoring stations located around the and training Points (ACPs), which •Uncertainty surrounding stable/growing •Joint Stand-Off Weapon (JSOW, a glide or glide- world. They then compute and broadcast corrections are distributed across military budgets boosted air-surface weapon). to keep these clocks so accurate25 that. International they are almost MAJOR EVENTS the Canadian landmass •High integration, installation and testing costs 28 25 • Land Warrior: a U.S. Army program that provides clockalways comparisons within 250 are nanoseconds now routinely performed via OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002 and track all GPS • Challenging correlation between commercial dismounted soldiers with up-to-date technology GPS with accuracy on the order of 50 nanoseconds satellites in view. for wireless communications, navigation, and data off-the-shelf (COTS) equipment in military or better. 2001 sharing to improve battlefield situation awareness. applications and purely military acquisitions, August See http:// •Legacy maps: fixing inconsistencies between TIMINGparticularly MARKET longer-term supply arrangements. The need for precise timing accuracy has led to a THALES finalizes acquisition of SatNav firms Magellan www.gpsclock.com different maps growing industry of GPS equipment manufacturers and Navigation Solutions, an acquisition initially /gps/g2.html With timing so closely associated with money, it 26 26 . Frost & Sullivan announced by Thales and Orbital Sciences on • M-code receiver development and testing comes as no surprise that accuracy of the former working in a market forecast at US$197 M in 2001, and http://www.gpsworld expect this segment to continue to grow within May 23, 2001. • Mine location, for safe passage or disposal influences one’s control over the latter. GPS plays a reflecting 25% revenue growth .com/gpsworld/article/ telecommunications markets, with new growth in •Precision all-weather navigation of military ships, critical role in ensuring such high levels of accuracy, 27articleDetail.jsp?id=3123 e-commerce and internet service provider appli- PROFIT, The Magazine for Canadian Entrepreneurs, vehicles, and aircraft and as many would agree, has become a crucial cations, where GPS timing signals are used to mark ranks SiGEM #1 of Canada’s Fastest-Growing Young ” •Pedestrian navigation element of computing networks and the very net- Frost & Sullivan and coordinate a variety of functions. Companiesbased on revenue and as growthCanada’s over “Hottest two years: Start-up fiscal • Rapid mapping prior to military actions works driving time-sensitive financial markets. (© 2002). 2000 over fiscal 1998. • Remote control of unmanned land vehicles 28 •Selective Availability Anti-Spoofing Module see “GPS and the Legal Release of The Volpe Report (Vulnerability Assessment (SAASM) Traceability of Time”, of the Transportation Infrastructure. • Satellite orbit determination (future) GPS World, January • Silent rendezvous 2001, Vol. 12, No. 1. Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 99 SATELLITE NAVIGATION Particular focus was placed on news within Canadian GPS community. MAJOR EVENTS MAJOR EVENTS OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002 OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002 the first batch of six production EGNOS RIMS-C receivers, to allow NovAtel to recognize CA$1.8 M in revenue. ABI releases “GPS World Markets 2002: Prospects for Satellite Navigation and Locator Applications, Relying on the Global Positioning System) confirms PowerLOC chosen by a large U.S. city to supply PowerLOC Technologies, a subsidiary of Paradigm that interference (unintentional and intentional) is a turn-key specialized tracking system solution for ” Advanced Technologies, sign an agreement with a major concern, and that safety and economic risks a high security project which relates to the 9/11 that forecasts an increasing role for GPS in the new Distrel Spa for the distribution of its Destinator™ ” society. associated with the loss or degradation of GPS signals terrorist attacks. “alert navigation system product throughout Europe. have been underestimated. ” in-vehicle In a new white paper, “Telematics Paradigm Shift: September Daewoo Motor Co. launches “Dreamnet information/navigation service for its vehicles, in Industry Strategies Mature as Business Model Realities Professor Elizabeth Cannon, Professor and NSERC/ ” The Strategis Group predicts that growth collaboration with mobile communications giant Sink In, Petro-Canada Chair for Women in Science and Engi- Korea Telecom Freetel (KTF). in the automotive telematics market will be cata- neering (Prairie Region) at the University of Calgary November lyzed as auto companies and wireless operators ESA approves €550 M for Galileo at Ministerial December receives the Johannes Kepler Award, considered the partner to introduce more sophisticated hands-free Council Meeting. Canada announces intentions Russia starts restoring global satellite navigation sys- most prestigious in its field, for sustained and signi- voice solutions into cars. to invest €7.4 M. tem with launch of three Uragan GLONASS satellites. ficant contributions to satellite-based navigation. NASA conducts groundbreaking research proving EU Transport Ministers delay decision on Galileo, SiGEM enters into distribution agreement with leading CSI Wireless receives prestigious Alberta Science that GPS altimetry may be an inexpensive, effective ”, awarded to companies with notable holdouts by Germany and U.K. who European distributor Broadband Technology to exclu- and Technology (ASTech) for its “Outstanding tool to measure sea levels. generating annual revenues of over CA$25 M. want further study. Decision prompts the EU Heads sively represent SiGEM’s line of GPS and telematics Commercial Achievements of State to deliver consensus political support products, including OEM receivers, antennas, and 2002 SiGEM hails deal with RESPONSE Services Center for to Galileo at subsequent Laeken Summit. U.S. wireless tracking devices, in the UK and Ireland. January U.S. Congress approves US$173 M for GPS satellite an in-vehicle system targeting cab owners and drivers, opposition mounts. acquisition and US$78 M for GPS-3 modernization with the intent to increase safety. NovAtel and Raytheon sign contract for a long term, October PriceWaterhouseCooper release business case on multi-phase development contract for a GPS receiver under 2002 Department of Defense Appropriations Wireless providers miss deadline to begin implemen- Galileo, forecasting total cost to develop and to be used in Raytheon’s next generation satellite Act. US$181 M also allotted for space and control ting E-911 technology because the major national deploy Galileo as €3.4 B with a projected a benefit- based landing system. segment operations. carriers said they aren’t ready. The FCC agreed to tailor to-cost ratio of 4.6 for the program from 2008 to extensions for each of the six major cellular service 2020, generating close to €17.8 B in revenues. CMC Electronics selected by ACSS (Aviation Commu- CSI Wireless unveils Asset-Link 100 Telematics providers under mandate to provide E-911 service. nication & Surveillance Systems) to supply GPS Product - the first of what will soon be a family of SiGEM sells its wholly owned subsidiary, Auriga receivers for ACSS’s new Traffic and Terrain Collision innovative and cost-effective fleet-tracking, safety NovAtel achieves a major milestone on the EGNOS Communications, to Tait Europe, to allow SiGEM to Avoidance System. and security products. RIMS-C receiver contract with the successful comple- focus efforts on achieving profitable growth from its tion and approval of the Final Qualification Review existing taxi dispatch and telematics businesses. U.S Coast Guard contracts Raytheon ten years of NovAtel delivers an additional 12 WAAS receivers to (FQR). Following formal sign off of the FQR by THALES engineering, technical, maintenance, and support Shenzhen Shenyuan Trading Company for use in the Avionics UK (RIMS-C contractor) and Alcatel Space NovAtel signs an agreement with BEELINE Techno- services for the U.S. Nationwide Differential GPS, Chinese Satellite Navigation Augmentation System Industries (EGNOS prime contractor), NovAtel ships logies, of Fresno, California to supply the GPS and a contract valued at up to US$76 M. (SNAS). This order represents the first lot of receivers communications engine for precision agricultural for Phase 2 of the Chinese SNAS program, and includes guidance systems, positioning both companies to SATELLITE NAVIGATION capture a significant share of this market. Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 101 MAJOR EVENTS MAJOR EVENTS OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002 OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002 FCC permits the marketing and operation of certain Boeing receives approval from the U.S. Air Force to Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control and the types of products incorporating Ultra-wideband move forward with space vehicle production for the U.S. Army again successfully test the new Guided (UWB) yet protects GPS signals from intentional GPS 2F Modernization program. version of the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) UWB emissions. Use of the devices must remain rocket using GPS-aided guidance. 29 See “Who’s afraid upgrades to mini-WAAS receivers previously delivered above 1.99 GHz or below 960 MHz, depending on Aerospace Corporation releases study on mitigating of ultra wideband? under Phase 1 in 2000. This latest sale has a value the specific application. Opposition groups, composed collision risks of decommissioned GPS satellites An emerging wireless of US$1.3 M. of major wireless carriers, the U.S. DoD, satellite in orbit. technology fights for radio companies, and the GPS community, reiterate its life” By Dan Briody CMC Electronics launches a CA$56 M R&D initiative the argument that if UWB is allowed to operate as CSI Wireless launches Location-Sensing GPS-Enabled June in RedHerring focusing on advanced vision systems for navigation, originally planned across spectrum used by the GPS Wireless Phone. Ford Motor Co. pulls out of Wingcast LLC, its joint (18 June 2002) next generation aeronautical communications systems, and other authorized services, it could put the public venture with Qualcomm Inc. to produce telematics http://www.redherring and specialized GPS. at risk. Even so, the decision kept the door open for Following the 9/11 attacks, Canadian Coast Guard services in vehicles. .com/insider/2002 the UWB community to proceed with development: (CCG) reconsiders decision to shut down aging /0618/uwb061802.html ePiNG tracking devices by SiGEM to be used by its “We look at this as an excellent opportunity, Loran-C navigation system used by a dwindling NASA reports successful use of GPS for attitude, reseller partner Synovia to provide a high-value number of mariners and pilots in favour of a single, position and speed of the International Space Station. tracking solution for school bus districts throughout ” more efficient GPS technology. The CCG, which expressed Jeffrey Belk of Qualcomm. Other possible NFebruaryorth America. spends CA$2 M annually to operate five Loran-C Robert G. Bell, NATO assistant secretary general for Michael Gordon-Smith, a senior engineer specializing benefactors are equipment makers that incorporate defense support, states that NATO has not taken a 29 beacons in Canada, will again assess the long-term in air traffic management systems at CMC Electronics, UWB chips into their new products, like cell phones . need for Loran-C in 2004. position for or against Galileo, yet wants assurances receives the Volare Award from the Airline Avionics General consensus is that considerable time will lapse that Galileo does not interfere with or impair NATO’s Institute. He was cited for his work on advancements before UWB reaches the market. access to the significant military advantages afforded in cockpit avionics systems, particularly in the May NATOJuly forces by GPS. € application of state-of-the-art navigation systems Germany approves 160 M for Galileo thereby setting CSI Wireless enters CA$6.5 M contract with AirIQ NovAtel awarded a contract by Raytheon Navigation to the real environment of airplane operators. His the stage for favourable EU decision in March. for commercial transport, rental vehicle fleets and Landing Systems for the next phase of development crowning achievement was his concept and archi- March service companies. and qualification of LAAS receiver. tecture for a fully integrated, triple GPS/Flight ” Cockpit Upgrade Program. EU Transport Ministers approve the release of €450 M August Management System as the heart of the Boeing 747 Zyfer releases “White Paper on Military GPS SAASM for Galileo, dismissing U.S. opposition. ” the new generation of military GPS Researchers at the University of New Brunswick (UNB) “Classic Technology, NovAtel appoints new president and CEO, Jonathan navigation and timing functionality said to enhance launch GPS guidance software to steer giant port W. Ladd. The company also signs strategic co- SiGEM changes name to Mobile Knowledge. the entire GPS infrastructure. cranes manipulating shipping containers. operation agreement with Leica Geosystems on common development of new technologies for GPS Following The Volpe Report indicating that GPS is Scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory examine FAA awards NovAtel a contract to develop the next- and its advancement in the high-accuracy segment. susceptible to unintentional disruption, U.S. Depar- new, cost-effective GPS technology to monitor the generation WAAS receiver. The US$2.4 M contract tment of Transportation (DoT) responds with action Earth’s atmosphere. covers receiver development and qualification work Trimble and ESRI form a strategic alliance to plan to maintain the adequacy of backup GPS over a 21-month period and also includes an addi- work on mobile Geographic Information System systems used for critical transportation applications. tional US$835,000 option for development of a new (GIS) solutions. broadband WAAS antenna.

SATELLITE NAVIGATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 103 MAJOR EVENTS MARKET TRENDS

OF 2001 AND EARLY 2002 AND OPPORTUNITIESAscension Island and Kwajalein) that track the satel- lites’ navigation signals and relay the information to the MCS at Schriever AFB, previously called Falcon.

The launch of the Block 2 and 2A series, also awarded THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK: A SHOWCASE FOR GNSS R&D SATELLITE NAVIGATION SYSTEM: to Boeing, began in 1989 and involved 28 satellites. 30 All figures in U.S. MARKET TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES Of the Block 2 satellites, four remain operational denomination unless The Department of Geodesy and Geomatics Engi- GPS observables, and the integration of GPS with today. All but one of the Block 2A series are opera- stated otherwise. neering at the University of New Brunswick is one other mensuration systems. Recently, the department U.S. GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM tional (2A-13 was decommissioned in 1997). In of Canada’s leading centres for research in positioning inaugurated work on aspects of Europe’s future Galileo The world’s principal space-based navigation system, total, 22 satellites from the 2 and 2A series make and precision navigation using global navigation system. UNB’s targeted GNSS research is helping the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS), is a dual- up the current constellation. satellite systems (GNSS). The department has a to provide accurate, reliable, and cost-effective use system supporting both civil and military users. long history of making important contributions in positioning and navigation for Canadians and others Although it is operated by the US Air Force, the The contract for Block 2R (R for Replacement Opera- satellite-based positioning, stretching back to the around the world. system is managed by an Interagency GPS Executive tional Satellites) was awarded to GE AstroSpace early 1970s when it pioneered the use of the U.S. Board (IGEB). The IGEB, established in 1996, is (now Lockheed Martin Space Systems) in 1989 and Navy Navigation Satellite System in geodetic studies. UNB’s ongoing work is also geared towards the chaired jointly by the Departments of Defense stipulated 20 satellites in the order of US$2.5 B, with By 1980 or so, interest turned to the Global Posi- business end of the spectrum, namely to push GNSS and Transportation, whose membership includes the an option for six more (a total of 21 satellites were tioning System even though only a few prototype technology further into practical – and profitable – Departments of State, Commerce, Interior, Agricul- eventually built). The first of the series of Block 2R satellites were in orbit at that time. Working with commercial applications. For example, two UNB ture, and Justice, as well as NASA and the Joint satellites was launched in January 1997, the most government agencies and industry, the department researchers recently developed guidance software to Chiefs of Staff. recent on January 30, 2001. To date, six Block 2R researchers tested some of the first commercially simplify the enormous task of accurately stacking satellites have been successfully launched (the first available GPS receivers and developed software for large shipping containers within decimeters of each The nominal constellation of GPS satellites consists launch in January 1997 failed). the planning, execution, and analysis of GPS surveys. other. Standard mechanisms currently used to guide of 24 satellites in 6 orbital planes (four per plane), port cranes use cameras mounted on the sides of at an altitude of 20,200 km and an inclination of 55 As of July 2001, the operational GPS constellation GPS research activity grew in the 1990s and into the cranes. The cameras rely on lines manually painted degrees. Historically, the system has 26-28 satellites consists of 28 Block 2/2A/2R satellites. Replenish- the new millennium with contributions in many on the ground to keep the crane from running into in operation at any given time. The GPS civil signals ments should continue through 2002 or beyond, application areas including hydrographic surveying, stationary containers. To overcome the inaccuracies areDevelopments provided free of direct user fees, in accordance followed by the Block 2F (Follow-on) satellite series engineering and deformation surveys, geodetic and other problems associated with the lines, the withThe launching government of the policy first establishedblock of GPS in satellites 1983. began being built by Boeing, then by GPS-3, currently in positioning, aviation, machine control, augmentation researchers developed and successfully field-tested in 1978. Over the course of the next seven years, ten the study phase. The next launch of a GPS satellite systems such as WAAS and the Canadian Differential new software that digitally maps the port and uses Block 1 satellites were successfully launched (one to30 join the constellation is 2R-8, scheduled for Fall GPS Service, atmospheric science, and the use of GPS to control the crane’s actions to within a few launch failure). Built by Boeing under a US$1.35 B contract, all have since ceased operations. 2002 on board a Boeing Delta II launch vehicle out GPS on low-Earth-orbiting spacecraft. The work in centimeters. Such a development is one of many of the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (wiring pro- these areas was made possible, in part, through that exemplify the promising business opportunities In 1980, Lockheed Martin became prime contractor blems found on the Delta II fleet in July 2002 may expertise in such topics as transatmospheric signal being created through UNB’s advancements of for the Operating Control System (OCS) to develop push the rescheduled launch to an even later date). propagation, GPS signal bias and error mitigation GNSS technologies. the mission software, ground antennas, the Master through stochastic and functional modeling of the Control Station, and monitoring stations (located in Hawaii, Colorado, Cape Canaveral, Diego Garcia,

SATELLITE NAVIGATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 105 MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES A plan proposed in early 2002 that would speed up the GPS-3 schedule for delivery in 2009, a welcomed rumour in the civilian marketplace, was dropped in favour of enhancements to the GPS-2 blocks.

31 For a more detailed GPS Modernization be upgraded by 2006, eight years earlier than initially GPS-3 Unfortunately, the plan also required a boost in Since its inception, GPS technology has evolved most planned. Previously, modernization of the GPS was In November 2000, two separate contracts valued article on the technical funding which has yet to make it through the considerably in terms of the system’s reliability, not to begin until 2005. Under that schedule, a fully at US$16 M were awarded to Boeing and Lockheed improvements to government process. This means that not all twelve availability, power and application. For the civilian modernized constellation would not be available to Martin, to perform a comprehensive 12-month GPS-3 of the GPS-2R satellites may reach modernization, Block 2RM, see market, a milestone event occurred in May 2000 users until 2015. Under a revised plan, modernization architecture study to assess the mission needs and possibly only eight to ten. If no funds are allocated “M is for Modernization: with the discontinuation of Selective Availability is to begin in 2003 with the first Block 2F launch requirements of the existing system, and validate on the immediate horizon, the 2R/M satellites will Block IIR-M Satellites (S/A), the process whereby the civil signals were projected for as early as 2005. All twelve modernized their achievability by developing innovative be launched under their initial specifications Improve on a Classic,” intentionally degraded. This improved the accuracy 2Rs are scheduled for service by 2006. architecture recommendations. A third company, without the desired modifications. by Willard Marquis (GPS of the GPS civil service from a specified 100 meters Spectrum Astro, was not awarded a contract but World, September 2001; to 10-20 meters and thus spawned a boom of new- The modernization phases of Block 2R/M and 2F will decided to participate using its own funds. Of equal concern is the impact such cuts would have pp. 36-49). generation position-based services and applications. introduce four new signals: two military signals on on the GPS deployment sequence. The transfer of the L1 and L2 frequencies, and two new civilian The result of the study will provide a complete life funding from the GPS-3 budget to cover non-GPS Like all satellite systems, however, GPS has a limited signals, L2 and L5. While the first block of 2R/M cycle cost and cost-benefit assessment of the cost overruns would likely push the start date lifespan. For this reason, the US has embarked on satellites will carry the new L2 signal, users will navigation system for the next thirty years. As part further to the right, to as late as 2007 depending an extensive modernization plan of the 2R, 2F and have to wait until late 2009 before there are a suffi- of the process, meetings between the military and on the depth of the cuts. If this is the case, the eventual third generation GPS-3 that is expected cient number of satellites in proper orbital position civilian communities, over the summer of 2002 and deployment would shift from the 2010/11 timeframe to bring the technology to a new plateau. to fully use the new signals. As for L5, the signal is beyond, are defining the specific requirements for to beyond 2015

being added to the Block 2F series since it was not GPS-3. The Air Force had initially planned to award (see FIGURE F) . As expected, In April 1996, Boeing was selected by the U.S. Air feasible on Block 2R/M. A reliable L5 signal could the winner-takes-all contract, estimated at US$2 B, the user communities are lobbying for reinstatement Force to design and construct Block 2F, the Follow- be available as early as 2012, although some experts in the fall of 2002 but has since pushed this date of funding in order to optimize the advantages on series to Block 2R/M (still being defined). The predict more likely around 2015 given that the roll- to early 2003. Deployment of the system is officially associated with the upgrades in power and signals. FIGURE E ). contract’s potential value is approximately US$1.3 B out is contingent on the sequential decommissioning scheduled for 2010/11, yet, as described below, could and encompasses the construction of up to 33 space- of the 2R/M satellites. beImpediments pushed further to Modernizationto the right due to budget issues GPS Modernization Opportunities for Canada craft through 2012 (six had been purchased by 1998). (forCurrent overview budgetary of Evolution issues risk of GPS,derailing from theBlock planned 1 to In the space segment, Canadian industry has not 31 The Block 2F satellites will feature greater flexibility From the users’ perspective,. Ground the additionalcontrollers signalswill also have the GPS-3,modernization see process. Budget cuts to cover cost been an active participant in the construction to incorporate evolving mission requirements and will provide aability more torobust reprogram civil service, spacecraft improved signals and power growth incurred in the non-GPS related U.S. Air of the GPS satellite system. To date, the US DoD have a design life of nearly 15 years. Under the terms accuracy to upwhile to 3-5 on meters,orbit, called enhanced the Flexible signal secu- Power Plan. The Force’s Space Based Infrared System High Missile has dealt primarily with the two largest US space of the GPS Block 2F contract, the Boeing team is rity, improvedboosting acquisition of theoptions satellite and enemy power jamming capacity is most warning system are already being felt on plans to companies, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, who have initially building the satellites, modifying the GPS resistance significant in the modernization process: the up- upgrade the 2R/M and 2F series. developed the full end-to-end system within each ground control segment and providing launch proces- grades to 2R/M translate into a five fold increase in company’s vertically-integrated infrastructure. sing and on-orbit support. power over the 2R satellites. For the 2F series, the Some outsourcing has occurred to lower-tier US power surges ten fold. Under GPS-3, the power is firms. For example, ITT Industries Aerospace & In September 2000, Lockheed Martin was awarded a expected to surge well over 100 fold. Communications Division (A/CD) is working under US$53 M contract to begin development of moderni- zation changes for the twelve remaining Block 2R Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 107 SATELLITE NAVIGATIONsatellites, now dubbed 2R/M for Modernized. Under the initial plan, all twelve modernized 2Rs, are to MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES

FIGURE E FIGURE F 32 Further technical and EVOLUTION OF GPS GPS DEPLOYMENT: 2002-2015+ political insight into GLONASS at: http:// GPS-2RM GPS-2F L2 L5 www.fas.org/spp/guide/ Satellite Block Launch Status Prime Launch Launch In use In use russia/nav/glonass.htm Block 1: 10 sats 1978 Decommissioned Boeing L2 L2/L5 33 Block 2: 9 sats 1989 4 operational Boeing Go to http://

Block 2A: 19 sats 1990 18 operational Boeing www.oso.chalmers.se/ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ~geo/gg_comp.html Block 2R/M: up to 20 sats 2R: 1997 6 operational; 12 launch-ready Lockheed Martin 2RM: 2003 sats for modernization for a comparison of GPS

Block 2F: up to 33 sats 2005 6 under construction. Boeing and GLONASS network GPS-3 GPS-3 GPS-3 specifications. GPS-3 2010+ Architectural study phase Boeing and LM Contract Planned Possible to begin launch delay

Development

GPS-3 may shift to 2007 a US$39 M sub-contract to Lockheed Martin as part On the terrestrial applications side of the spectrum, of the Block IIR upgrade and is also involved in the introduction of new signals opens opportunities the architecture study of GPS-3. in the testing and simulation markets, notably the need to ensure compatibility between the new signals Russian GLONASS certification of GLONASS user equipment. Interests Military’s lead on GPS, regardless of its strong and existing GPS signals and equipment. In fact, such A fully deployed Russian GLObal NAvigation Satellite of civil users, as well as for international cooperation civilian focus, renders it a defense technology and a requirement has prompted the U.S. Air Force to System (GLONASS) constellation is composed of for application and development, are the responsi- 32 . thereby subject to stringent licensing arrangements. revive their GPS test range at Yuma Proving Grounds, 24 satellites in three orbital planes. Eight satellites bility of the Russian Space Agency Moreover, GPS is not part of the current Canadian Arizona, for military and legacy system capability are equally spaced in each plane at an altitude of Years ago, GLONASS rivalled GPS with a planned exemption under the International Traffic in Arm (testing to begin in September 2003). The range 19,100 km at an inclination angle of 64.8 degrees. constellation of 24 satellites on three orbital planes 33 (see FIGURE G) . Regulations (ITARs). was first set up in 1977 and dismantled once the compared to six for the GPS First launched in 1982, four years after the first GPS Block 1 and 2 GPS satellites became fully operational. Conceived and promoted in the early 1970’s by the satellite, the system initially proved worthy as a Just the same, quick resolve of the Air Force budget Firms capable of providing such services to comme- former Soviet Ministry of Defense, GLONASS was complement/backup to the GPS system yet continually difficulties, resulting in a replenishing of GPS funding rcial GPS equipment manufacturers are in a position officially placed under the auspices of the Russian struggled to achieve the critical numbers that allow to expedite the upgrades of satellites under the to help such companies expedite their upgraded Military Space Forces (VKS). This organization is for reliable positioning capabilities. Block 2R and 2F modernization initiative, could equipment to market. responsible not only for the deployment and on-orbit enhance interest by the American primes for launch- maintenance of GLONASS spacecraft (the latter ready off-the-shelf components provided by suppliers, through the Golitsino-2 Satellite Control Center) but including those in Canada. also, through its Scientific Information Center, for SATELLITE NAVIGATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 109 MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES

By mid-2001, this number was reduced to as few as six healthy birds and the system’s demise was

imminent unless funding was injected FIGURE G 34 See “GLONASS At the time of its launch, GLONASS was the only 38 “GLONASS Contributions to Space satellite navigation system that did not have an COMPARISON OF GLONASS AND GPS SPACECRAFT Contributions to Space 35 . Geodesy” by Jörgen intentional degradation of the civilian navigation Geodesy” ibid. p. 11. GLONASS GPS Börjesson (Department code as was the case with GPS prior to the discon- In August, Russia announced the much-needed influx 39 of Radio and Space tinuation of S/A in May 2000. Another advantage Sat bus width X height [cm] 101 X 327 152 X 191 “Glonass: Still Out of money for GLONASS replenishment. On this occa- Science; Chalmers for GLONASS is the higher inclination of the satellite Sat mass [kg] 1415 1066 There”; Gerald L. Cook, 34 . sion, Russia announced plans to return GLONASS University of orbits, implying better satellite availability at Sequoia Research to full operational status well before the turn of Onboard power [W] 1600 1136 higher latitudes Corporation; Presented Technology; Göteborg, 36 Dual GPS/GLONASS receivers are currently available the decade in what officials are referring to as a . # of orbital planes 3 6 Sweden 2000). at ION 2001, 35 in the market place. Even with a reduced constel- transition between the old and the new designs Orbital inclination 64.8° 55° 11-14 Sept. 2001 lation, GLONASS can be helpful in some applications In December 2001, the launch of three GLONASS Additional (Salt Lake City, USA). satellites, one of which was the GLONASS-M series, Orbit altitude 19,130 km 20,180 km augmenting GPS. GLONASS is monitored by a sub- 37 references: “GLONASS . Current network of International GPS Service sites, including came on the heals of the announcement Nominal # of sats 24 24 Spacecraft”, GPS World, plans include another three satellites on a Russian UNB – the only Canadian GLONASS monitoring site. Proton rocket in 2002 and more in 2003, for a total Current # of operating sats 7-8 28 November 1994, Vol. 5, Developments of 10-12 operational satellites. Capable of intersa- No. 11; “GLONASS: Since its inception in 1982, four models of GLONASS Source: GPS Satellite Comparison: http://www.oso.chalmers.se/~geo/gg_comp.html tellite communication and of autonomous operations Review and Update”, spacecraft have been flown. Eleven Block I satellites for as long as 3860. Bydays 2006, comparable the Russians to Boeing’s expect GPS 36GPS World, July 1997, were launched between 1982-1985 with an average to haveBlock an 2F 18-satellite satellites constellation, and a complete Vol. 8, No. 7. actual lifetime of just over one year. Six Block IIa Opportunities for Collaboration From Canada’s perspective, Russia and Canada have satellites followed in 1985-1986 with new time and constellation by 2007 which will include a third For Russia, authorities have been in close discussions enjoyed a long history of space cooperation in a generation of satellites, GLONASS-K, to begin in “Russia Commits frequency standards, increased frequency stability with the Europeans over possible collaboration in variety of fields and continue to collaborate in 2005. GLONASS-K will have an orbital life expectancy to Funding for New and a 20% increase in lifespan. Block IIb spacecraft the upcoming Galileo system. Russian officials are various international ventures. Besides the notable of ten years, up from seven and will be phased in Glonass Fleet” with 2-year design lifetimes emerged in 1987, and a seeking to use their experience from GLONASS to partnership on the International Space Station project, 37 see throughFIGURE 2010 H(for) overview. of Evolution of GLONASS, by Peter B. de Selding total of 12 were launched, although half were lost participate in the development and deployment of other collaborative ventures include the COSPAS- in SpaceNews in launch vehicle accidents over the course of two Galileo and may be in a position to provide launch SARSAT, a satellite based search and rescue system Developments aside, the GNSS community has ample (Dec. 17, 2001; p.6) years. The remaining spacecraft worked well, ope- services on board a Starsem Soyuz-ST rocket, a involving Canada, Russia, France and the US, in which reason to remain doubtful given the inadequate rating for an average of nearly 22 months each. joint Russian-French partnership. Discussions also Canadian industry played an important role. Russia’s progress to date. As one observer commented, “Will As of September address the interoperability of the two systems renewed efforts to expand and improve GLONASS the Russian government abandon GLONASS? The 2002, the GLONASS-M The launch of Block IIc satellites beginning in 1991 thereby enhancing accuracy and coverage. Calls could provide a basis for industrial opportunities answer is probably not, but it is difficult to predict involving various segments of the satellite infras- satellite is still set as allowed Russia to attain full constellation status 39 have also been made for more formal discussions how the future political environment.” will affect “unhealthy” but consisting of 24 satellites by 1995 (21 operational involving Russian, U.S., and European officials to tructure, from space to ground to application funding for the program recently started to and 3 active spares). Unfortunately the pinnacle reach a common view on each of their respective development, although certain trade issues persist. transmit valid data. was short-lived. Despite the launch of three new navigation systems. GLONASS satellites in 2000, the total number of operational GLONASS satellites soon slipped to eleven. SATELLITE NAVIGATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 111 MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES

FIGURE H 40 “What is Galileo” Chinese Beidou Navigation System Galileo In October 2000, China officially entered the satellite Galileo will be Europe’s own global navigation satellite http://www.esa.int/ EVOLUTION OF GLONASS navigation system race with the successful launch system, providing a global positioning service under export/esaSA of the Beidou Navigation System. A second satellite civilian control. Once operational in 2008, the system GLONASS Blocks Launch Status /GGGMX650NDC_ soon followed in December 2000, to make up a system will be interoperable with both GPS and GLONASS. navigation_0.html Block I: 10 sats 1982 Decommissioned designed and built by the Research Institute of The fully deployed Galileo system will consist of Block IIa: 6 sats 1985 Decommissioned Space Technology under the China Space Science 30 satellites (27 operational + 3 active spares), posi- Block IIb: 12 sats 1987 Decommissioned and Technology Group. No other launches have been tioned in three circular Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) 40 reported to date. planes at an altitude of 23,616. km and at an incli- Block IIc: 51 sats 1991 5-6 operational nation of 56 degrees Block M: >5 2001 0 operational China expects its navigation system to play a pro- The first experimental satellite, part of the so-called Block K 2005 Under construction gressive role in promoting national economic growth Galileo System Test Bed (GSTB) is scheduled for and is a key element to China’s expanding list of launch in late 2004. Thereafter, up to four operational space capabilities, particularly as it gears up for satellites will be launched in the timeframe 2005-2006 the Beijing Olympics in 2008. Outside of China, the to validate the basic Galileo space and related ground operational. It is being developed by ESA in In May 2002, EGNOS achieved the successful closure navigation system is a topic of discussion between segment. Once this In-Orbit Validation phase has conjunction with the European Commission and of its Critical Design Review (CDR) and subsequently Russian and Chinese officials over possible cooperative been completed, the remaining satellites will be Eurocontrol, the European Organization for Safety moved into the manufacturing phase over the summer. space initiatives linked to Russia’s GLONASS program. installed to reach full operational capability in 2008. of Air Navigation.

By many accounts, China is becoming one of the The Galileo system would be similar to the GPS and YELLOW LIGHT. GREEN LIGHT. The infrastructure will consist of three geostationary most aggressive space-faring nations with high Russian GLONASS systems. The difference lies in its YELLOW LIGHT? satellites and a network of ground stations to transmit aspirations for satellite and manned space programs. claim to be the world’s first satellite positioning Politically, the road to launching the Galileo constel- critical information while informing users of the errors In September 2001, Chinese officials reported that and navigation system specifically for civil purposes, lation, like the vast majority of space projects at in position measurements and signal disruptions. the country could launch 35 or more science and designed to track aviation traffic across the European this current juncture, has been a difficult one. Despite application satellites over the next five years. EUROPEcontinent MOVES and provide ALONG search andTHE rescue services. successfully reaching the development and validation In February 2000, the EGNOS System Test Bed (ESTB), AdOPPORTUNITIESditional navigation and FOR positioning CANADA satellites TECHNOLOGY LEARNING CURVE phase in 2001, Galileo found itself in what could the first EGNOS prototype, began broadcasting signals areFor partCanadian of these industry, plans. current opportunities to EGNOS, which stands for European Geostationary be described as an erratic decision-making process participate in the Chinese navigation system remain Navigation Overlay Service, provides a unique oppor- from space, making the system available for navi- involving the European Commission (EC) and the limited given the limited scope of the project and tunity for validating and demonstrating new service gation demonstrations and service trials. EGNOS European Space Agency (ESA), that lead it close restricted market access. This is unlikely to change and application developments in a realistic envi- currently relies on navigation transponders on board to the brink where it still lingers under a cloud of over the course of the next few years. ronment using navigational signals from GPS and the Inmarsat-III Atlantic Ocean Region East (AOR-E). political wrangling. GLONASS satellites. As a forerunner to Galileo, The test bed will also rely on ESA’s Artemis satellite, EGNOS will eventually be folded into Galileo once which is on its way to geostationary orbit due to a failure in the upper stage of its launch. It is expected to reach geostationary orbit by the end of 2002. SATELLITE NAVIGATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 113 MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES AND OPPORTUNITIESDespite the list of supporters, with studies and The EU believes Galileo will create a market for equi- statistics in hand, EU officials maintained a cautious pment and services for European companies totaling position leading up to the December 2001 council some US$71 B over 15 years along with 140,000 jobs. meeting. At this meeting, Transport Ministers from All this at a minimal cost: the EU equates the price Germany, Denmark, Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden, FIGURE I 41 Report: http:// tag to that of some 150 kilometers of semi-urban and Britain once again called for further delays to 42 Speaking at the ION europa.eu.int/comm/ COMPARISON BETWEEN GPS AND GALILEO motorway or the cost of just one track of the main committing more money to Galileo until a stronger GPS 2001 Conference, energy_transport/library/ tunnel for the future high-speed rail link between argument of the ensuing economic benefits was Salt Lake City, U.S.A. Lyon and Turin. made.The respective ministers concluded that more gal_exec_summ_final New GPS signal Galileo signal Reported in 1164 MHz “detailed consideration’’ was required, to help ease _report_v1_7.pdf L5 E5a/E5b E5/L5 ION Newsletter Band Those working in the GNSS industry are equally sup- the burden on European taxpayers, before they could 1188 MHz (Vol. 11; No. 3; Fall 2001) portive: Lyn Dutton, Business Development Manager sign off on the European project. They also expressed 1215 MHz L2 L2 Band at Thales UK (formerly Thomson-CSF), estimated that concerns over the overall infrastructure and the role G2 43 1260 MHz in Europe alone, Galileo is expected to boost the GNSS of private industry therein. E6 E6 Band market to more than US$60 B between 2010 and 2020 1300 MHz Quoted in CNN In February 2002, the scales tipped in favour of Allocations decided Communiqué 1559 MHz L1 L1 L1 Band by WRC-2000 42 . Galileo with Germany’s decision to approve €160 M. G1 “European Space Agency 1610 MHz 10 navigation signals and Richard Langley, a professor in the Geodetic Research One month later, EU Transport Ministers approved 1 Search And Rescue signal. Backing GPS System”; the release of €450 M that matched the • 4 signals in 1164-1215 Mhz Laboratory at the University of New Brunswick, said 22 Nov. 2001; previously-approved ESA funds. The go-ahead, (E5a-E5b) plans tentatively call for Galileo to mesh with GPS http://europe.cnn.com/ 5010 MHz C Band • 3 signals in 1260-1300 Mhz frequencies to simplify the development of dual- however, was conditional on ensuring private inves- (E6) 2001/TECH/ptech/11/22/ 5030 MHz system GPS/Galileo receivers and drive down prices tors would also come on board under the proposed, • 3 signals in the frequency (see FIGURE I for GPS and Galileo frequencies ). euro.space.galileo.idg/ range 1559-1591 Mhz (L1) and contentious, Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Langley added that dual-system receivers would not arrangement. The ministers insisted the EU would only provide greater positioning accuracy, “but would meet no more than one third of the costs of Galileo’s Following an EU allocation in April 2001 of Coming on the heels of the ESA decision, and just also provide the three other key performance measures deployment, with the remainder met by the private € 100 M, matched by ESA, to take Galileo to the prior to the upcoming EU Council meeting, was the of” aThe navigation “use of a system: dual constellation availability, will conti benuity and sector. They agreed to set up a new committee – a next level, the two organizations proceeded into release of an independent study on the business integrity. Joint Undertaking (JU) structure – to co-ordinate 41 . particularly beneficial in situations where the perfor- the summer with efforts to secure significant case of a European satellite navigation system the project’s security-related issues. The report concludes that there is a strong economic mance of GPS alone is marginal, such as in urban funding envelopes within each of their ” Langley case for Galileo, far beyond the €3.6 M. The study canyons and other restricted environments. memberships. ESA’s contribution of €550 M was predicts that the cost of a dual-system receiver would The Joint Undertaking is designed for a period of estimates the total benefits at close to €18 M, unanimously approved at the ESA Council Meeting not be much higher than that of a GPS-only receiver. four years, ending in 2005. Founding members are including operations, representing a cost-benefit held in Edinburgh in November 2001, representing a And once Galileo becomes operational, GPS-only the EC and ESA, joined by the European Investment ratio of 4.6. Among the main beneficiary is the decisive step in the evolution of Galileo into the receivers will43 . be relegated to the technology junk Bank and private enterprises subscribing to the initial transportation industry, poised to reap substantial development and validation stages (C/D). Canada heap, he added funding of the JU. In response to EU concerns over savings as a result of improvements to air traffic also announced its intentions to participate with a possible conflict of interest that could arise in control, marine navigation and route guidance for funding in the order of €7.4 M. allocating the private sector a role in implementing motor vehicles. Significant revenues are also in store for chip-set sellers and value-added service providers.

SATELLITE NAVIGATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 115 MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES • EMS Technologies Canada (SAR system, power supplies); • NavCanada (to host reference station in Moncton); GPS satellites orbit from west to east, so a station in Canada allows EGNOS to make an early deter- 44 See ESA Legal and administrating the infrastructure, private enter- U.S. RESISTANCE of the four services proposed by Galileo directly on 48 Reported in the mination of satellite clock and orbit errors, Notices, posted on prises will not be allowed to become members before As Europe dealt with its own internal wrangling, top of – or ‘overlaying’ – the ‘M-Code,’ the encrypted Institute of Navigation thereby increasing the overall accuracy of the http://europa.eu.int/ the finalisation of the tendering procedure with a future military GPS capability that will be used by (ION) Newsletter (Vol. the U.S. GPS/military lobby maintained a less-than- 48 .”system. Users in eastern Canada would be able view to selecting the future holder of the concession U.S. and NATA forces for crucial military operations comm/energy_transport/ 44 subtle presence in the entire affair. In a statement 12; No. 3; pp. 1, 16). . to use EGNOS signals from the westernmost to deploy and exploit the system en/gal_who2_en.html released on March 7, and quoted in GPS World, the Nonetheless, opponents are coming to the realization 49 EGNOS GEO, so having a station in Canada 45 State Department stated that “The United States that Galileo is imminent and the extent of the invest- Cited in NavCanada’s New political hurdles arose once again by early improves service in that area Cited in “Officials summer 2002 due to differences between Germany Government sees no compelling need for Galileo, ments appears far too along the development path “SatNav Transition (see FIGURE J Galileo Say No Solution in and Italy on which country will be considered the because GPS is expected to meet the needs of users46 .” to justify its cancellation Strategy” (May 2002). Timeline). More importantly, at stake is the new rela- 50 Sight for Galileo leader of Galileo. As of July 2002, ESA was continuing around the world for the foreseeable future 49 . While recognizing the strength of a combined tionship of ESA and the EC/EU and the role both Dispute” SpaceNews, bilateral discussions with the respective governments CSA funds approved in Galileo-GPS system, and the need for cooperation are playing in a system that symbolizes European 9 Sept. 2002 (http:// In November 2001, Canada announced its intention Spring 2002. in hopes of brokering a deal. independence via technology prowess. So much to to address interoperability, many in the U.S. have 50 www.space.com/ to invest approximately CA$11 M to the Development say that formal negotiations continue between U.S. openly expressed concerns over encryption plans, and Validation phases (C/D), from 2002/03 to spacenews/spacenews_ New financial matters also crept onto the table – this management framework, and Galileo’s potential mili- and European officials in order to iron out many of businessmonday_020909 2006/08. The key rationale underlying Canada’s 46 time, however, the issue dealt with over funding, not the outstanding issues and to ensure that respective tary use. The already tenuous relationship was participation in this, the most extensive satellite .html) lack thereof. As of July 2002, ESA member states have exasperated in December 2001, between the ESA states and users around the world benefit from a € constellation program on the immediate horizon, approved a total of 730 M, an over subscription of more robust GNSS infrastructure. and EU meetings, with an open letter from U.S. points to the potentially beneficial industrial returns GPS World Global some 30% of the funds requested from each govern- Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz to his OPPORTUNITIES FOR CANADA to a number of the country’s leading space companies View; April 1, 2002 ment. ESA hopes to resolve the subscription rates counterparts in NATO expressing apprehension over To date, Canada has actively participated in the specializing in both space and ground segments. (http:// and therefore the rates of industrial returns by the sharing of signals. As one observer noted: “To Wol- European SatNav programs since 1998, having played 47www.gpsworld.com/ end of 2003, although SpaceNews reported in early fowitz, GPS…is also a crucial element of US military an active role in EGNOS, and Phase A and B2 of Activities that could involve a more comprehensive gpsworld/article/ September 2002 that multiple rounds of negotiations • Search and Rescue technologies power, enabling new forms of precision warfare. The Galileo. Among the Canadian participants to date Canadian participation include: articleDetail.jsp?id=14147) between the nations concerned - Germany, Italy, • Ground receivers establishment of new location-based services outside include: France and Britain - have come up empty. Apparently, • NovAtel (EGNOS/Europe, WAAS/N.A., • Navigation signal generation technologies the United States…would open up the possibility of “Europe’s New Air there is no solution in sight, officials were quoted SNAS/Chine, MSAS/Japan, Galileo studies); • Antenna technologies outside parties using precision47 .” weapons for purposes War”, Oliver Morton in as saying: “We are now all45 looking.” toward the • CAE (GalileoSat System Simulation Facility); • Regional integrity ground infrastructure that undermine US foreign policy. It could even, Wired (Aug. 2002) national elections in Germany as a future event that • University of Calgary (study phase; support conceivably,NATO officials lead were to soon satellite after navigation echoing the being concerns. used http:// may produce a breakthrough. At the very least it to industry); Although a European design, Galileo is a global directlyIn a leading against navigation the US publication, Robert G. Bell, www.wired.com/wired/ will make ministers and the (German) chancellor • University of New Brunswick (study phase; system providing global coverage – and thereby NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defense Support, archive/10.08/airwar.html more available to negotiate support to industry; EGNOS monitoring); requiring ground stations placed outside of Euro- spoke at length regarding what he perceived as the • Telesat Canada (regional integrity network); pean territory for telemetry, reliability and integrity. “serious military issue related to the … placing one According to ESA, the ground installations will

SATELLITE NAVIGATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 117 MARKET TRENDS WHAT TO EXPECT AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NEXTLocation-based FEW Services: EstimatedYEARS to bring GPS- enabled technologies more firmly into consumer’s handhelds. The technology responds well to growing demand for “on-the-spot

FIGURE J 51 See “Special Report: WHAT TO EXPECT Ground Systems” GALILEO TIMELINE IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS in SpaceNews, Industrial Consolidation: The SatNav industry is PHASE A: 1998-1999 •ESA:Comparative System studies ” information June 10, 2002; made up of hundreds of small and medium sized and purchasing opportunities. pp. 20, 21. • EC: Concept studies companies in the GPS-enabled service industry, sup- ported by a more modestly numbered equipment PHASE B1: 2000-2001 •ESA: Baseline System Design The Long and Winding Road: Full integration into manufacturing sector. Anticipate more consolidation • EC: GALA study the mass market of automobiles, as in the case of in both the service and manufacturing industry as in-vehicle navigation, is a long-term process and PHASE B2: 2001-2002 •ESA:Preliminary System Design GPS technologies encounter more acute integration. one that will not result in instant cash-flow. At this • EC: GALILEI study stage, returns are most promising in the provision On the Defensive: GPS is among the most strategic PHASE C/D/E1: 2003-2005 • Joint Undertaking: Detailed design, development of GPS-enabled telematics in industries that rely on and In-Orbit Validation tools for the U.S. military forces who are relying fleet tracking, as in the case of rental car agencies, more and more on space for a competitive advantage PHASE E2: 2006-2008+ • Full Deployment and Long-term Operations taxis and companies that provide on-site servicing in the battlefield. Efforts to increase the power of using company vehicles (i.e., public utilities). GPS to improve intelligence, surveillance, deployment and weaponry should translate into growing market be rather extensive, with possible locations for By virtue of Canada’s status as a Co-operating State Ongoing Turbulence: FAA’s dual GPS-based naviga- opportunities, not to mention R&D opportunities ground stations in India, Alaska, South America of ESA, Canada is allowed to participate in the tional systems: WAAS and LAAS continue to experience 51 : where public defense funds are more readily available. and Canada GalileoSat program, the space component of Galileo. some turbulent times, despite reports of good progress • Two telemetry, tracking and control stations The events of 9/11 have only expedited these efforts, On the other hand, Canada is not a member of the as of late. Anticipate the reaching of key milestones to monitor the constellation. triggered new ideas using GPS, and created additional European Union, the co-sponsor of Galileo, and in 2003 and 2004, when the system is scheduled to • Between 18-20 reliability and integrity monitoring funding envelopes into which industry may be able discussions continue to formalize Canada’s partici- be commissioned for precision navigation and landing stations to assure Galileo signal accuracy. to tap. (Interestingly, GPS was used to record with pation in what is a joint ESA-EU venture. (although a date for Category 1 operations is still • Ten satellite-uplink station to feed C-band great accuracy where debris was pulled from at ground unknown). The initiative has provided good oppor- signals to the constellation. zero in New York City, lending to the clean-up efforts Overall, the world-class level of expertise found in tunities for some of Canada’s leading GPS suppliers • Numerous stations to collect information from by a significant time factor) Canada’s GNSS industry, particularly in the manu- and forecasts are positive as more progress is made. the on-board atomic clocks. facturing sector (NovAtel, CMC Electronics, EMS • A Galileo control centre, and one back-up centre, Technologies), satellite operations (Telesat) and Big Brother: Awareness and demand for GPS, an ” society have lead to Smaller is Better: Adoption and commercialization to provide the codes needed to encrypt Galileo reference stations (NavCanada), creates opportunities industry now driven much more by the civil market the wireless E911 mandate and other GPS-based will rely heavily on the GPS industry’s capability data that is limited to specific users, and to for collaboration in Europe’s navigation venture. than the military counterparts, will continue to grow “people-tracking” devices for children, older people to achieve (1) technology miniaturization and (2) provide signal-integrity data. as its proven power to locate leads to more affor- Moreover, Canada is home to some of the world’s suffering from Alzheimer’s, and offenders on proba- merging synchronization with other basic mass market • A Security Office responsible for management dable and integrated products for consumers. The most renowned experts in the field – at the University tion, parole or work release. services. Further design enhancements and market of the different categories of access to Galileo forces behind this new “alert of Calgary, University of New Brunswick, and Université awareness will lead to increased cross-segment signals, and to coordinate the overall safety and Laval – with established links with industry, particu- usage and adoption. security of the constellation. larly between the University of Calgary and the SATELLITE NAVIGATION growing Calgary-based satellite navigation industry. Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 119 WHAT TO EXPECT WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS

Timing is Everything: The need for precise timing Launch of Europe: Galileo has helped to thrust the Mark Burbidge accuracy, principally in the global computer network, European SatNav industry into the marketplace. In External Relations will drive opportunities in the GPS equipment manu- fact, Galileo – one of the only multi-satellite constel- Canadian Space Agency facturers industry. Regulation will increasingly require lations currently on the books in the entire space Tel: (450) 926-4369 precise timing capabilities among the increasing industry – has brought about unwieldy competition number of current and potential clients, thereby among European nations and back-room positioning Fax: (450) 926-4362 leading to decreasing costs and expanded service. by U.S. companies. European and non-U.S. GNSS Email: [email protected] industry are expected to increase their share of the Under the Microscope: Scientists are finding new global SatNav market. and exciting ways to use GPS for such things as environmental monitoring and atmospheric science. Securing GPS Modernization Funding: Despite the The potential of using GPS for scientific ends remains renewed focus on increasing US defense capabilities, largely untapped and should be the subject of promi- and the role of GPS therein, GPS modernization sing developments over the next few years as the remains vulnerable to budget reallocation in the U.S. GPS system is modernized. Plans for the next-generation GPS-3 constellation will likely slip to the right unless long-term stable funding is committed. Upgrades of existing blocks may also be affected. The rate of modernization may also be expedited and companies capable of delivering flight-ready off-the-shelf components may be posi- tioned to benefit from accelerated upgrade initiatives.

SATELLITE NAVIGATION Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 121 table of contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 124

MAJORMARKET EVENTS CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RECENT AND PAST 125

MARKET TRENDS 129

WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS 132

Prepared by: CONCLUSIONS 133 Manon Larocque,

External Relations REFERENCES AND KEY CONNECTIONS 135

APPENDIX - CANADIAN INDUSTRY PROFILE 136

SPACE SCIENCE MARKET CHARACTERISTICS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND MAJOR EVENTS

Quest for knowledge: The fundamental desire EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Benefits of international cooperation: Note: The reader is invited to consult the appendix 1 Reaching Out: of humankind to gain a better understanding of International cooperation leads to several benefits, to this chapter for an updated profile of the Canadian The years 2001 and 2002 has definitely been chal- Canada, International the universe and our planet, and to predict the lenging for the space sciences. Following the events including greater opportunities to participate space science community. evolution thereof, remains an integral function Science and Technology, of September 11th in the United States and their in missions, access to international databases of all space programs. and the Knowledge-based ensuing repercussions all over the world, govern- and facilities, potential access to foreign markets, MARKET CHARACTERISTICS AND ments are re-focusing their attention on security, political goodwill, and prestige. MAJOR EVENTS OF THE RECENT PAST Economy, Report of the Funding structure - role of government versus infrastructure and rebuilding efforts. The redirection Space Science Budgets Advisory Committee on industry: Basic science will likely remain Increasing pressure to consider global issues: of government funds towards these issues bears The estimated Canadian Space Agency (CSA) spending Science and Technology, supported primarily by governments, but industry an impact on activities of a more exploratory or There is building consensus that space science and in 2001-2002 for science activities was approxi- is increasingly contributing actively to the research Government of Canada research-based nature such as space science. space applications can contribute to solutions or mately 11% of its annual budget, which represents and development of applied science. 2000 (ACST report alleviate problems related to issues such as the about CA$30 M. This amount is modest compared Nevertheless, it remains true that economic prosperity consequences of population growth, access to to some of our international counterparts. These available at Increasing public-private partnerships: By the is directly correlated to the advancement and use education and health care, environmental and eco- numbers simply re-emphasize the Canadian space www.acst-ccst.gc.ca). public sector working jointly with private industry of knowledge. In such a knowledge-based economy, logical changes, and disaster prediction and relief. community’s need for international cooperation. to develop technologies that have a use both in continued evolution in scientific understanding is As stated in last year’s Global Trends report, most space and on Earth, it is hoped that development considered essential. For the most part, nations Smaller missions: As space agency budgets have governments of industrialized nations recognize costs will decrease. still rely on their governments’ sustained recognition remained stable or declined in some cases, there the need to support international cooperation in and support of scientific progress to achieve this has been, over the past several years, a tendency science and technology, and therefore actively Commercialization of science: Agencies are eager understanding. Currently, the space sciences are towards smaller, more flexible missions. It is expected support and facilitate international Science and to exploit the synergies existing between space undergoing a transition, by virtue of increased that small-and micro-satellite single-focus science Technology (S&T) initiatives. For Canada, this has and terrestrial research and development, and are pressure for the transfer of scientific knowledge missions will increase in the future and that the translated into an overall1. commitment of CA$69 M exploring the commercialization possibilities of into direct earth-based applications and benefits number of larger, complex, multi-instrumented and annually to support international S&T initiatives, space science and technologies. for humanity. Today, many space agencies are expensive missions will remain steady or decrease. with approximatelyFIGURE A below34.3% presents of this amount selected dedicated civil considering placing more emphasis on commercia- to thegovernment space sector space expenditures in space science Synergies between the sciences: There is a growing lization of space science and technologies in order Partnerships with other government departments: and micro-gravity for the period covering 1997 realization that the boundaries between the various that these activities become a more integral part As science becomes scrutinized more heavily with to 2002. (Partial updated information, as details space science disciplines are becoming blurred. of their programs. respect to its role to provide direct benefits for were not available from all agencies at the time Research into Mars phenomena has a direct benefit Canadians, there will be an increasing trend to of this publication). on similar phenomena on the Earth; research into Although there have been some new developments partner with other federal government departments the space environment can provide tools for worthy of mention, one should keep in mind that who have an operational role. These will include astrophysics and weather forecasting; etc. by its very nature, the space science environment Natural Resources Canada, Environment Canada, as entails long-term missions. This year’s chapter will well as the Department of Fisheries and Oceans to therefore provide an update of the information name a few. provided in Global Trends 2001, highlighting specific Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 125 SPACE SCIENCEevents from the last year and highlighting addi- For the purposes of this chapter, we will abide by tional trends to monitor in the near future. These the generally accepted definition of space science trends include: as being scientific research conducted from, in, or on space. MARKET CHARACTERISTICS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS AND MAJOR EVENTS AND MAJOR EVENTS

FIGURE A FIGURE B 2 State of the Canadian 3 Canadian Space SELECTED GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON SPACE SCIENCE* TOTAL CA$ REVENUES PER YEAR Space Sector, 2000, Agency: 2001-2002 –

External Relations Estimates (Report on 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Directorate, Canadian (estimates) Space Science Revenues: (in millions CA$) Plans and Priorities). Space Agency. Canadian Space Agency 28.9 27.3 28.9 23.7 29.4 30.3 (including life and microgravity sc.) 70.00 60.00 European Space Agency 725.0 830.35 805.98 696.03 768.0 671.74 50.00 (including life and microgravity sc.) 40.00 Japan (ISAS + NAO) 310 302 280 276 258 N/A 30.00 NASA Space Science 3,035 3,380 3,538 3,772 4050 4220 20.00 (including life and microgravity sc.) 10.00 0 *Amounts are in CA$ (Millions) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Note: Source: State of the Canadian Space Sector, External Relations Directorate, CSA, 2000. 1) CSA: Figures based on year-end reports and planned spending estimates; include (microgravity and life sciences, exploration, astronomy). Numbers were revised from last year's publication to ensure consistency, basing numbers on the fiscal (April to March) versus calendar year. NOTE: Re-organization into different service lines as of 1999 resulted in atmospheric environment and space environment Due to Canada’s involvement with the International Regardless of these difficulties, the CSA’s priorities being included in the Earth and Environment service line of the CSA. Should we include these numbers, the numbers would Space Station, it was initially thought that many remain unchanged. The results expected through read for: 2000 = 46; 2001 = 49.6; 2002 = 48.8. 2) ESA: Numbers based on ESA Science Budgets (voted budgets) including microgravity (but excluding ISS columbus lab facility). research opportunities would become available the space science program over the coming 3: Numbers taken from Euroconsult 2002 publication: "World Market Prospects for Public Space Programs, p. 129). The full through this new platform. However, the current years, include numbers 1997-2002 have been updated for consistency, using budgets versus expenditure. Conversion rate EURO to CA$ (Annual Bank of Canada average). difficulties experienced by the partners of the ISS • Improvement in the health of Canadians through 3) Japan figures include Astronaut program (1999 to 2001 data from Institute for Space and Astronautical Science and National have resulted in a delay or postponement of certain Astronomical Observatory ; therefore numbers include astrophysics, solar physics, space plasma physics, planetary science, gravitational biotechnology projects, osteoporosis science and balloon observation programs, astronomy). Conversion rate: 1 CA$ = 80 JPY. Data is not included for 2002 due scientific/research activities. This decreased level experiments and extravehicular dosimetry; to the current re-organization/amalgamation of the Japanese space organizations. of science activity is unlikely to increase signi- 4) NASA: Numbers based on Presidential budget request (nasa webpage: http://ifmp.nasa.gov/codeb/budget2001)); Conversion • Improvement of medical knowledge, treatments ficantly over the course of the coming year, until rate: 1 CA$ = (approx.) 0.65 US$ (Bank of Canada average) - NASA budget includes space science as well as life and microgravity and drugs by experiments using the effects of budgets (for all except 1997 which is NASA science budget only). the partners resolve the crew issue (3 versus 7), microgravity; and, 5)Space All numbers Science excludes Results military budgets. space activities, revenues generated from Space which limits the astronauts’ availability for • Improvement of material processing techniques, Based on results from an annual survey conducted Science activities in 2000 represented 4% of total conducting experiments. including the understanding of fundamental by CSA on the State of the Canadian industry, revenues. Over the five-year period 1996 to 2000, physics and chemistry, proteins and biotechnology, revenues for the space science sector suffered a revenues in the Space Science sector have declined FIGURE B fluid and combustion processes. downturn during 2000, sliding 23%, or from CA$68 M by 9%. graphically2. demonstrates in 1999 to CA$52 M in 2000. As a proportion of all this variation

SPACE SCIENCE Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 127 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS AND MAJOR EVENTS MARKET TRENDS

• International Living With a Star: Canada is positioned to play a major role in this large, 4 Space Station will Events/Announcements of 2001 - Early 2002 international mission that has as its goal real-time • SCISAT and MOST: Canada has started to take MARKET TRENDS 5 Canadian Space • International Space Station: There is increasing a significant step towards the development of suffer, Sept. 17, 2001, forecasting of effects from the Sun (solar storms) Quest for Knowledge Agency participating criticism over the situation with the ISS. Some in order to protect assets here on Earth (power small- and micro-satellites and associated techno- www.space.com/news Although there is a strong trend towards commercia- in two ESA programs journalists go as far as denouncing the ISS as a systems, satellites, astronauts, communications, logies with these two innovative space science lization and development of earth-based applications studying the failure, with any potential for return from scientific etc.). After initial studies conducted in 2000 missions. This is an area where growth is expected from space science research and scientific instru- research highly doubtful given current program on this program, NASA has now established the in the next decade and these missions are posi- mentation, the fundamental purpose of scientific environment and cost overruns and subsequent budget cuts. Living with a Star Program under the Sun-Earth tioning Canada to take advantage of this growing research is to fulfill mankind’s desire to gain a better exploring new worlds: “Given the prospect that schedule slips and and dynamic sector. Connection Theme, with the goal of understanding understanding of the universe and to predict its GMES and Aurora, scientific equipment delays continue to plague the changing Sun and its effects on the Solar • James Web Space Telescope (JWST) Canada has evolution. This remains an integral function of all CSA press release, the mega-project,4”. Due the to ability these todifficulties, achieve the some of System, life, and Society. negotiated a 5% partnership in the Next Generation space programs. Some key projects proposed by Saint-Hubert, Quebec, intethended ISS scientific partners goals have offrealigned the ISS their is seriously science • OSTEO: The OSTEO experiment (1998) produced Space Telescope mission – the successor to the or under development by the main contenders in jeopardizedpriorities, adapting their projects and timelines substantial results in synthetic bone biomaterials, Hubble Space Telescope. This very large and space science are presented below: June 14, 2002). to the current constraints. testing and affirming the effectiveness of PTH complex mission is expected to place Canadian • Mars: The Canadian Space Agency has declared its (recombinant human parathyroid hormone). astronomers in the forefront of future discoveries • NASA’s intent on launching the “James Web Space intention for Canada to lead a future scientific These results have led to growth in Millenium about our universe, a subject of everlasting appeal Telescope” (JWST) over the next few years, the mission to Mars in partnership with other key Biologix’s primary terrestrial business and helped to humanity. next future large space astronomy observatory international players. The requirements for such to secure a major global business partnership. • AURORA: On June 14, 2002, the CSA announced to which Canada has subscribed at a level of 5%; a mission are not only to highlight Canada’s Further research in this field will take place with its commitment of US$700,000 (CA$1.1 M) over •The European Space Agency’s “exploratory” scientific and technological capabilities, but also the launch of OSTEO-2 (slated for 2002 – STS107). three years to participate in the European Space missions, such as Herschel-Planck to study the to inspire our youth and the general public. The • OSIRIS: The Swedish ODIN satellite was launched Agency’s Aurora program. Participation in this origin and evolution of the universe and of mission is also expected to result in significant in February 2001, to which Canada provided the program is key to creating international partner- stars and galaxies, not to mention Mars Express spin-off activities, as new instruments and tech- OSIRIS instrument to study ozone depletion. ships and collaboration with Canada on future scheduled for launch in 2003 and AURORA; niques are developed for the harsh environment of Through this mission and the forthcoming missions to Solar system bodies, in particular •Japan’s interest in Lunar exploration through those holding promise for traces of life. It will the red planet. The recent discovery of water on SCISAT mission, Canada has become recognized 5. robotic or orbiting observatory missions; Mars has only reinforced the current global interest as the leading nation performing research into also allow Canada to demonstrate new space •CSA’s President, Dr. Marc Garneau’s announcement in its exploration. Various international initiatives changes in the Earth’s ozone layer, especially technologies and enhance its global recognition that “Canada is going to Mars”, a science driven are underway or under development with several effects at high latitudes, where Canada is as a leader in key technologies, notably in Lidar although technology enabled initiative; and finally, of these opportunities under consideration by CSA. situated. OSIRIS is functioning well to date (LIght Detection And Ranging), in robotics and •The pending launch of Canada’s SCISAT in 2003. and yielding interesting results. in the development of scientific instruments Funding Structure: Role of Government and Industry The necessity of public-private partnership is a reality. Under the current economic conditions, with decreasing budgets, the creation of synergies between Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 129 SPACE SCIENCE science and earth-based applications, the pressures for science to yield economic returns, and the shift in focus to security issues, collaborative partnerships MARKET TRENDS MARKET TRENDS Public-Private Partnerships One of the main impediments to conducting space research has been the high cost with respect to placing experiments in space. Joint initiatives, 6 Vision, Imagination between actors in the space science environment where by space research is sponsored by organi- disciplines are expected. Identifying areas with Pressure for Focused-Research on Global Issues are increasing. Governments today still act as the potential applications or transfer across disciplines There seems to be a growing consensus that space and Innovation, An zations with the potential to further develop this main funding source for basic research, with an research/technology for ground or Earth-based should lead to collaboration between scientists and science and space applications can contribute to update on the Benefits increasing expectation for industry to contribute applications, are an interesting concept gaining their funding agencies. solve or alleviate humanitarian, societal or global of Space Science in or to become the main supplier of funds for science increasing popularity. The concept of public-private problems such as environmental and ecological Canada, B.C. Blevis and and research. The current economic slowdown in partnerships (PPP) invites private industry to develop International Cooperation monitoring, disaster management or measuring Associates, January the United States, combined with the terrorism such double-use technologies, thus potentially International cooperation remains a strong trend the consequences of population growth and mass events of 2001 have placed new demands on in the context of decreasing budgets, new compe- movement. Interest has therefore been building in 1999, p.26. reducing development costs. This concept also ties Canadian government funding allocated to security in with the following trends of commercialization of titors, difficult economic situations, and a limited recent years for making use of space science and issues. This, in combination with a number of science and synergies between the sciences. pool of qualified space scientists. This also ties in technology to monitor or combat such global issues, other factors led to delays in the government directly with the pressure for focused research if/when they can be accomplished at relatively of Canada's innovation agenda and availability Commercialization of Science on global issues. Through pooling of resources, low cost. There is a growing expectation from the of short-term funding for new initiatives. In such More and more agencies are recognizing the synergies various benefits can be achieved, including greater general public and international groups that space an environment, it is not surprising that the existing between space and terrestrial Research opportunities to participate in missions, access to can provide benefits to Society and to developing government’s role increasingly becomes one of a & Development, and as such, the need to further international databases and facilities, potential countries particularly. The pressures for global solu- catalyst for public-private partnerships, and less explore the commercialization possibilities of access to foreign markets, political goodwill, and tions and benefits have resulted in the pooling of of a venture capitalist. space science and technology. The potential transfe- prestige. Additional benefits/opportunities include international resources and sharing of knowledge rability of space technologies to ground-based the possibility to test hypotheses and the use of across borders. Canada is already involved in such The Canadian government has identified its role in applications is increasingly a requirement and a international databases and facilities. types of activities, but is likely to increase partici- advancing6. Asscience stated through in last year’sfunding report, of university government potential cost-sharing opportunity. pation in this line of research in coming years. research,currently enhancing retains its the primary flow of role knowledge, in funding promo- basic The Canadian space community is well recognized tingresearch, excellence often andassuming relevance, 100% policy of the making,costs. However, and Synergies between the sciences globally for its highly qualified expertise in space Smaller Missions developingwhile governments a science remainand innovation a principal culture funding in There is a growing realization that the boundaries science. In terms of international cooperation, As space agency budgets have remained stable or Canadaauthority in terms of applied science, especially in between the various space science disciplines are Canada has built strong ties to the United States declined in some cases, there has been over the the early phases of research, there are more and becoming blurred. As examples, it is foreseen that and Europe. This will remain true, although new past several years, a tendency towards smaller, more more incentives for early transition of responsibility research into Mars phenomena will have a direct space actors are consistently monitored for new flexible missions. It is expected that small-and from government to industry. Joint-funding during benefit on the research of similar phenomena on and interesting opportunities. With respect to the micro-satellite single-focus science missions will the initial program/project development therefore Earth and that research into the space environment International Space Station, although Canada has increase in the future and the number of larger, becomes preferable. Researchers are encouraged to can provide tools for astrophysics and weather been able to perform experiments on the ISS, delays complex, multi-instrumented and expensive missions obtain industrial support and establish partnerships forecasting. As the boundaries between disciplines are expected to continue over the next year or two will remain steady or decrease. Such access to space to share payload costs and maximize government become blurred, greater benefits in terms of until a final decision is made on the exact configu- has become essential in the context of the current leverage and economic benefits. advancement of knowledge and potential new deve- ration of the space station. situation with the International Space Station and lopments or transfer of knowledge into different the high costs typically associated with shuttle launches. Small and micro-satellite missions will SPACE SCIENCE hopefully ensure more frequentGlobal and cheaper Space access Sector Market Trends And Drivers 131 to space. WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS CONCLUSIONS

alleviate this situation somewhat, offering oppor- actors in the space community to ensure their tunities for more frequent flights at a reduced cost. survival. Various factors are creating this environment, It should be expected to see a growing interest including not only the financial aspect, but also in the Canadian community for these types of Partnerships with other government departments the need for space science to focus on Earth-based timely alternative. The Canadian community parti- 7 Speech from the Although there has been collaboration between cipation in such missions is expected to increase in missions, which are more in line with our current applications and pressures for humanitarian initia- Throne, Government various governmental institutions for basic research, coming years. This is part of the rationale behind the financial capabilities. tives. This may include public-private partnerships, of Canada 2001. partnering with departments with operational inter-governmental partnerships (space agencies CSA’s initiation of small and micro-satellite program Apart from the financial burden, the various trends 8 functions has gained impetus in the last few years. working with governmental users) or increasing in space science are pointing towards modest Government of This role is in direct correlation with the increasing international partnerships. Increasing interest in exploratory missions to Mars scrutiny with respect to space science’s role in The recent discoveries of water on Mars are reviving future growth in the field. The growing expecta- Canada, New Release, tion for links between and across disciplines, along providing direct benefits for Canadians. Among the Innovative “ways” of conducting science the international interest in the red planet. Should February 12, 2002. with the potential for humanitarian applications departments having such an operational role, part- The increasing overlap between the various space missions to Mars prove successful in identifying and successful spin-offs or transfer into Earth- nerships with Natural Resources Canada, Environment science disciplines, and requirement for transfer life, interest and investments for further missions based applications are indicative of continued Canada, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, to into Earth-based applications is leading the scientific to Mars and other planetary bodies will likely grow interest and support for space science. Already name a few, will likely be enhanced. community in reviewing how they conduct science, exponentially. Canada is well positioned to benefit WHAT TO EXPECT from these missions, with a small team of experts Canada has positioned itself favorably in the space IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS and how to work together to achieve greater return. currently studying options for involvement in inter- science community through participation in a Ongoing turbulence Scientists from various sectors are increasingly naCONCLUSIONStional Mars initiatives. variety of international missions. Again however, As stated previously, issues with the ISS remain collaborating together to complete complementary the main constraint to further international Growth Potential unresolved, government budgets are tight, and the science. This new approach requires innovative partnerships is tied to the financial limitations. The space science community seems to be in a never- scientific community is under pressure to produce thinking on the part of the space community. ending cycle of budget cuts or funding shortage results. This situation is unlikely to change signifi- Should scientists eliminate the “invisible” barriers Canada associated perhaps with their strong quasi- cantly in the next few years. However, although that typically exist between disciplines, it could The Canadian government announced last year its dependency on government funding. Although this indicates a challenging road ahead, various lead to a decrease in overall launching costs, as desire for Canada to be recognized as one of the governments recognize the need for scientific alternatives are under consideration or development cost is spread across various sectors and to many most innovative countries in the world, to be one research, the financial resources are not always that may help smooth the path. These include actors. Futher, these strengthened collaborations of the top five countries for research and develop- readily available due to a variety of constraints. 7 increasing partnerships, new ways of conducting could also positively increase overall results from ). In February of 2002, The Government of ment performance by 2010.(Canada currently ranks Increasing private-public partnerships are therefore 8 science, and new means of accessing space. the science completed through data sharing amongst Canada released Canada’s Innovation Strategy and 15th a wider scientific community. essential. Although these partnerships are increa- followed quickly with an extensive consultation sing, the space science environment with long Innovative partnerships amongst actors process intended to seek feedback from Canadians Smaller is better lead times and potentially many years prior to of the space community and secure the engagement and commitment to Could it be that smaller is indeed better? The diffi- return of tangible benefits on Earth, is not always The trends clearly indicate the need for the space action of partners from the private, non-governmen- culties and costs associated with the current means conducive to private sector involvement. Govern- community actors to work in close collaboration. tal, academic and government sectors. A National of conducting science in or from space are favoring ments will therefore need to take a more proactive Although Canada has exceeded its own predictions of Summit on Innovation and Learning in November the potential small and micro-satellite missions. role, acting as catalysts for these private-public economic growth in 2002, the worldwide economic of 2002, will feature a national roll-up of the Access to space is limited by two factors: cost and partnerships in order to ensure the success and situation is such that governments are experiencing results of eight months of engagement with the availability. This new approach of using small and survival of the space science community. The budgetary constraints that are forcing innovative micro-satellites is providing a cost-effective and emergence of small-micro satellite missions may SPACE SCIENCEthinking and partnering between the various Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 133 REFERENCES CONCLUSIONS AND KEY CONNECTIONS

business communities, labour and Canadians across Manon Larocque REFERENCES AND KEY CONNECTIONS 12. State of the Canadian Space Sector, 2000. CSA the country. The objectives of the Summit are to External Relations 1. Exploring our Home Planet, Earth Science shape the priorities for Canada’s Innovation Strategy 13. Readiness Issues Related to Research in the Canadian Space Agency Enterprise – Strategic Plan, NASA and to seek the input and commitment from all Biological and Physical Sciences on the International Tel: (450) 926-4363 Space Station [National Research Council (Task sectors for a Canadian Innovation and Learning 2. Highlights in space 2000, United Nations, Fax: (450) 926-4362 Group on Research on the International Space Action Plan. New York 2001 Email: [email protected] Station Membership), Committee on Space Biology and Medicine/Space Studies Board, December 2001] There is great need for a clear strategy in space 3. Life Science Experiments in Space Bring science. The CSA attempts to establish this strategy Benefits on Earth – ESA Publication, 1996 by working closely with the scientific community 14. Space Station will suffer, Sept. 17th 2001, (http://www.space.com/news/microgravity_report_ through consultation and feedback from the advisory 4. NASA, Space Science – Strategic plan, 010917.html). boards. For the time being, space science missions/ November 2000 opportunities continue to be evaluated on a case- 15. www.daimlerchrysler.com/news/top/2000 by-case basis, through consideration of their merits 5. Reaping rewards from space life sciences, and financial capability in the short-term, without Aerospace America, vol 35 (1), Jan. ‘97 necessarily seeking to establish a clear, longer- 16. www.stars4space.org/benefits.html term strategy. 6. Research Money (various publications) 17. www.cnn.com/TECH/9607/17/space.benefits/

Note: The author would like to acknowledge the 7. Space 2020, ESA Publications Division, 18. http://technology.jsc.nasa.gov participation of Dr. Dave Kendall of the CSA, Space European Space Agency 1995 Science Directorate for his participation in the 19. www.esrin.esa.it/export/esaCP/ESAG9SUM5JC_ preparation of this chapter. Thanks also to Gilles 8. Space Science in Canada: Past, Present and Benefits_0.html Clément, James Greene, Mikhail Marov and Jim Future Benefits, B.C. Blevis and Associates, Burke from the International Space University for March 1994 their inputs. 20. www.ntcn.hq.nasa.gov/success 9. Space Science research in Canada 1998 – 1999, 21. www.nasa.gov/ Report to the 33rd COSPAR Scientific Assembly, Warsaw, Poland, July 16-23, 2000. Canadian 22. www.esa.int/export/esaCP/index.html Space Agency

23. www.nasda.gv.jp 10. State of the Space industry 2000, International Space Business Council 24. www.space.gc.ca/OrisPts/directory.asp

11. The OECD JOBS Strategy - Technology, 25. Living with a Star: lws.gsfc.nasa.gov/Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 135 SPACE SCIENCE Productivity and Job Creation, 1996 APPENDIX - CANADIAN APPENDIX - CANADIAN INDUSTRY PROFILE INDUSTRY PROFILE

and is working on aspects of the future Planck APPENDIX - CANADIAN • Dynacon: Dynacon develops satellite control avoiding defects or contamination. Guigné is now mission, that will study the origin and evolution INDUSTRY PROFILE systems products and constructs complete benefiting from the commercialization of the of the universe. Suppliers microsats. The company was chosen by the CSA product not only to space agencies but to other • Bristol Aerospace Limited: Bristol participates As demonstrated in the Global Trends 2001 report, as the prime contractor to develop and build the customers as well. in space science research through the provision there exists an extensive number of contributors world’s smallest astronomical space telescope, • MD Robotics: This company is a leading developer of sounding rockets, payloads and small satellites. to space science, with participants from the scheduled for launch in 2003. Microvariability of space robotics having developed the Canadarm The company is currently the prime contractor academic research, private and public communities. and Oscillation of Stars (MOST) is a CSA- program and Canadarm II. MDR is heavily involved with for the spacecraft bus component of the CSA’s Increasingly, these actors are learning to colla- whose goal is to measure the ages of stars. several partners in developing robotic and asso- SCISAT program, a scientific satellite scheduled borate in order to maximize their use of limited • EMS Technologies: EMS was the main industrial ciated technologies for future planetary missions, for launch early in 2003, which will study the financial resources and expertise. The list below partner for the WINDII instrument that flew for especially Mars. chemical processes that control the distribution provides a few examples of Canadian suppliers and over 10 years on NASA’s highly successful Upper • Millenium Biologix: Millenium Biologix is a of ozone in the Earth’s atmosphere. Bristol is also organizations that are actively contributing to Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) mission medical biomaterials company that partnered involved in the micro-vibration isolation system space science. A more complete listing of Canadian as well as the plasma instruments for the Swedish with the CSA and NPS Allelix Corporation for (MVIS) for the International Space Station. suppliers and researchers can be accessed through Viking and Freja satellites. From these contracts, the OSTEO-1 experiment. The purpose of the • COM DEV: COM DEV designs, develops and the Canadian Space Agency’s (CSA) Space Directory, EMS developed the CALTRAC® star tracker product experiment, launched in 1998 on board Space manufactures scientific and remote sensing instru- available on the CSA web site at www.space.gc.ca. line that has been sold to several satellite cus- Shuttle Discovery, was to study the underlying mentation for space. This company was the CSA’s tomers. Currently, EMS is developing instruments process of bone loss and to evaluate possible prime contractor for MOPITT (Measurements of Private organizations (in alphabetical order) and systems for the JWST, SWIFT, SCISAT, and treatments. Other partners included Mount Sinai Pollution in the Troposphere), providing systems • ABB Bomem: Bomem has been involved in various the extended Polar Outflow Probe (e-POP) Hospital, the University of British Columbia and engineering, detailed design, manufacturing, projects with the CSA, the National Aeronautics programs/missions. the University of Toronto. As the results of the assembly and testing. Launched in 1999 on and Space Administration (NASA), the European • Guigné International Ltd: Guigné has developed OSTEO-1 experiment were quite promising, a second the Terra spacecraft for a 5-year mission, the Space Agency (ESA) and National Space Develop- a unique levitation technology based on work OSTEO flight is slated for STS-107 in 2002 with instrument is collecting measurements on carbon ment Agency of Japan (NASDA), related to the carried out for underwater acoustic imaging, similar partners. Millenium Biologix has also monoxide and methane in the atmosphere. COM study of the atmosphere and atmospheric gases used to study the ocean floor and Atlantic fish developed the Advanced Thermal ENvironment DEV also was prime contractor for the deve- by developing instruments, for example, for SCISAT. stocks. This innovative technology has evolved (ATEN) furnace, a major facility provided by lopment of the CSA’s Thermal Plaza Analyser (TPA) The company’s experience prompted it to establish into space technology for use on the International Canada, designed to conduct fundamental studies instrument that is flying to Mars on the Japanese a new commercial line of Fourier Transform Spec- Space Station (ISS). Developed specifically for on the International Space Station, including for Nozomi spacecraft, and developed the fine- trometers based on space opportunities, profiting use in the microgravity environment, the space example diffusion, Ostwald ripening, and particle guidance sensor for the NASA’s Far-Ultraviolet from its extensive experience in space science DRUMS™ (Dynamically Responding Ultrasonic pushing. Scheduled for launch in 2004, ATEN will Space Explorer (FUSE) mission. Currently, COM activities by transferring this knowledge to the Matrix System) facility uses an acoustic levitation also improve material processing techniques to DEV is working on instruments and/or subsystems design and manufacture of its commercial products, process that enables large fluid or solid material grow semi-conductors, ceramics and glasses of for the SWIFT, SCISAT, Cloudsat, James Web Space which are largely in the remote sensing area. The samples to be positioned and held stably in better quality. Telescope (JWST), and Hershel missions. company has recently completed and delivered microgravity, while they are being processed • NORCAT: The Northern Centre for Advanced the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) on the space station. Called “containerless” Technology (NORCAT) based in Sudbury is Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 137 SPACE SCIENCEinstrument for the Canadian SCISAT satellite processing, this leading-edge system of dynamic developing advanced drilling technologies for acoustic beam positioning prevents the samples future planetary missions. from touching the walls of their containers, thus APPENDIX - CANADIAN APPENDIX - CANADIAN INDUSTRY PROFILE INDUSTRY PROFILE

• Optech: Optech is also involved in developing • The University of British Columbia leads several • The University of Saskatchewan is the leading • The University of Toronto’s (UoT) Institute for state-of-the-art LIDAR technologies for future projects involved in far infrared and submillimetre centre for the CSA’s Optical Spectrograph and Aerospace Studies conducts research in the field space applications, including remote sounding space astronomy, including Balloon Anisotropy InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) instrument of plasma materials. The UoT and the University of the Earth’s atmosphere (ORACLE) and Measurement (BAM), Balloon-borne Large Aperture that is flying onboard the Swedish Odin satellite, of British Columbia are participating in the MOST planetary missions. Sub-millimetre Telescope (BLAST) and Planck. providing the data centre for the analysis and mission. Within the Department of Physics are • Routes AstroEngineering: Routes designs and • The University of Alberta is a leading centre for distribution of results from this mission. several scientists who are leading research into builds space and environmental equipment and the study of the near-Earth space environment • The University of Western Ontario has been a the study of the Earth’s atmosphere from space, scientific instruments. This company has been and is a leader in the Canadian Auroral Network long-standing partner in space research and is including the MOPITT instrument on-board NASA’s involved in various CSA projects, including: for the OPEN Program Unified Study (CANOPUS)/ currently leading studies into a potential future Terra satellite, the MAESTRO instrument to be - the CSA’s Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Geospace Monitoring programs, developing mission to study gravity waves in the Earth’s flown on SCISAT, and the MANTRA (Middle Atmos- Imager System (OSIRIS), an imaging spec- massively parallel computational algorithms to atmosphere (GWIM). phere Nitrogen Trend Assessment) series of trograph on board the Swedish Odin satellite solve complex problems relating to the forecas- • The Centre for Research in Earth and Space high-altitude balloon launches to study the Earth’s which is providing detailed data relating to ting of space weather phenomena. Science (CRESS) is a York University Faculty- middle atmosphere in relation to ozone depletion. ozone depletion; • The University of Calgary is leading various space based Organized Research Unit, which focuses • The University of New Brunswick is rapidly - the Microgravity Isolation Mount (MIM-II) which science projects, such as the Thermal Plasma much of its research on Earth and space science, developing into a major centre of space science stabilizes experiments conducted in zero-gravity Analyzer (TPA), Suprathermal Mass Spectrometer including geodynamics, remote sensing of the activity with involvement in future planetary environments and prevents them from being (SMS), Ultra-Violet Auroral Imager (UVAI), Odin, Earth’s surface, troposphere, stratosphere, mesos- research, the Geospace Monitoring program and affected by vibrations; as well as, CANOPUS, e-POP and Venus Climate Orbiter projects phere and thermosphere, and plasma environment. atmospheric studies. - the Aquatic Research Facility (ARF) is a colla- that have flown on or are being developed for It also includes research on planetary atmospheres, • C-CORE is an applied engineering research institute borative project between the CSA and NASA to several international satellite missions. Members stars, and the interplanetary medium. Past located at Memorial University. Funded by industry study developmental biology under microgravity of the Physics and Astronomy group are also involvement includes participation in the ODIN and government, the Centre undertakes research conditions. Following the success of the first partners in many other projects, such as Wind (OSIRIS) mission and MOPITT as well as being that contributes to the safe and economic develo- flight of ARF, NASA asked the CSA to develop Imaging Interferometer (WINDII), VLBI Space the lead institution for both the WINDII and pment of Canada’s resources, particularly in a Habitat for insect studies on the ISS. Observatory Project (VSOP), Imager for Magneto- future SWIFT wind measuring instruments. industry-related activities and commercialization pause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE), • The Centre for Research in Earth and Space of space for enhanced oil recovery, contaminant Academic and research centers Geoelectrodynamics and Electro-Optical Detection Technology (CRESTech) is a derivative of the transport, aerosol studies and environmental The Canadian academic community and scientific of Electron and Suprathermal Ion Currents Institute for Space and Terrestrial Science, which studies as applied to the microgravity environment. research centres are responsible for most of the (GEODESIC), Herschel, Hubble Space Telescope, owes its origins to CRESS. Established in 1987, advancement and transfer of knowledge. Many Infrared Astronomical Satellite, etc. The university’s CRESTech is a Centre of Excellence of the Province Canadian universities actively participate in science success in space science and research has led to of Ontario, which is at the forefront of research projects funded by the Canadian government, which the creation of the Institute for Space Research. into how astronauts’ perceptions and sense of has led to the creation of various sub-organizations balance are affected by space flight. in specific fields. A few examples are provided below, identifying recent projects this community SPACE SCIENCEhas been involved in: Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 139 APPENDIX - CANADIAN INDUSTRY PROFILE

Customers: •Natural Resources Canada/Geological Survey of • Public sector: Governments remain the major Canada (GSC): GSC supports the space science buyers of scientific data, and the primary financial program in its Space Environment and Planetary source of support for the development of scientific Exploration programs. In the former, the magne- instruments and research. Departments mandated tometer chain provided by MSC is an important with public concern issues such as health and part of the CANOPUS and Geospace Monitoring the environment make extensive use of the data programs, and GSC also has the lead to develop and discoveries gathered through space science. a Space Weather forecast program. In the field Environment Canada, for example, makes extensive of planetary exploration, support is provided use of space science data for meteorological to the community through the meteorite and applications and research on ozone depletion, remote sensing programs of the Canada Centre atmospheric pollution and climate change. for Remote Sensing. •National Research Council: NRC is Canada’s premier • General public: The general public is the major science and technology research organization, a beneficiary for many aspects of Canadian space leader in scientific and technical research as well science activities through spin-offs such as break- as the diffusion of technology and the disse- throughs in medical treatments and instruments, mination of scientific and technical information. improved weather forecasting, as well as fewer The council works in partnership with industry, interruptions in power grids and communications universities and international research organi- to name a few. One example includes Canada’s zations, expanding the frontiers of science and Hoffman Reflex experiment that measures the technology. The NRC is specifically involved in effects of microgravity on human reflexes. This space astronomy research providing the lead experiment has important implications for the scientific support for the FUSE and NGST missions, health and safety of astronauts but may also lead as well as helping to support a Canadian Astro- to improvements in managing balance disorders nomical Data Centre that receives all results from on Earth, particularly in the elderly. Another the Hubble space Telescope (HST). example involves NASA, and the potential of •Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council: eradicating dyslexia in young children through NSERC is the major partner with the CSA Space physical exercises that were initially developed Sciences Program in ensuring that results from for astronauts. the scientific missions and projects supported by the CSA are analyzed and published. • Environment Canada (EC)/Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC): MSC is a major partner of the Canadian Space Agency in formulating and imple- SPACE SCIENCEmenting the Atmospheric Environment element Global Space Sector Market Trends And Drivers 141 of the Canadian space science activities. The MSC are associated in many programs and missions, including CloudSat, MAESTRO/SCISAT and MOPITT.