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Supporting Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Bosnia And Supporting Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Impact Evaluation of USAID and Sida Fostering Interventions for Rapid Market Advancement (FIRMA) OCTOBER 2015 This publication was produced at the request of the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared independently by IMPAQ International under USAID/BiH Monitoring and Evaluation Support Activity (MEASURE-BiH). SUPPORTING SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: IMPACT EVALUATION OF USAID AND SIDA FOSTERING INTERVENTIONS FOR RAPID MARKET ADVANCEMENT (FIRMA) October 2015 NAIDA CARSIMAMOVIC VUKOTIC ANESA HADZIC YE ZHANG DISCLAIMER The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. CONTENTS TABLES ............................................................................................................................... I ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. II ACRONYMS..................................................................................................................... III EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 1 1. EVALUATION PURPOSE AND EVALUATION QUESTIONS ............................ 5 1.1 EVALUATION PURPOSE ............................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 EVALUATION QUESTIONS ............................................................................................................................................ 6 2. FIRMA BACKGROUND ............................................................................................. 6 3. EVALUATION METHODS AND LIMITATIONS ................................................. 17 3.1 IMPACT ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................... 18 3.1.1 Method Description ....................................................................................................................................... 18 3.1.2 Data Collection ............................................................................................................................................. 18 3.2 IMPLEMENTATION STUDY ......................................................................................................................................... 20 3.2.1 Method Description ....................................................................................................................................... 20 3.2.2 Data Collection ............................................................................................................................................. 20 3.3 EVALUATION LIMITATIONS ........................................................................................................................................ 26 4. FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................. 28 4.1 FINDINGS .............................................................................................................................................................. 28 EVALUATION QUESTION 1 ................................................................................................................................... 28 EVALUATION QUESTION 2 ................................................................................................................................... 33 EVALUATION QUESTION 3 ................................................................................................................................... 35 EVALUATION QUESTION 4 ................................................................................................................................... 40 EVALUATION QUESTION 5 ................................................................................................................................... 43 4.2 CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................................................................ 43 4.3 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................................................... 45 ANNEXES ........................................................................................................................ 47 ANNEX I. EVALUATION STATEMENT OF WORK .................................................................................................................... 48 ANNEX II. EVALUATION MATRIX ...................................................................................................................................... 54 ANNEX III. DATA COLLECTION INSTRUMENTS – KEY INFORMANT SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEW PROTOCOLS ................................. 56 ANNEX IV. DOCUMENTS REVIEWED ................................................................................................................................. 69 ANNEX V. LIST OF KEY INFORMANT INTERVIEWEES AND FOCUS GROUP PARTICIPANTS ............................................................... 70 ANNEX VI. STATISTICAL CLASSIFICATION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES CATEGORIES USED TO DEFINE COMPARISON GROUP .................. 73 ANNEX VII. FIRMA GRANTEES ......................................................................................................................................... 74 ANNEX VIII. DISCLOSURE OF ANY CONFLICTS OF INTEREST.................................................................................................... 88 TABLES Table 1. FIRMA Activity Contractual Performance Indicators ............................................................................. 10 Table 2. FIRMA Activity Performance Indicators Reported to USAID/BiH ...................................................... 11 Table 3. Number of FIRMA Activities by Sector and Assistance Area ............................................................... 12 Table 4. Examples of FIRMA Activities in Wood Processing Sector .................................................................. 13 Table 5. Examples of FIRMA Activities in Metal Processing Sector .................................................................... 14 Table 6. Examples of FIRMA Activities in Tourism Sector .................................................................................... 15 Table 7. Examples of FIRMA Activities in Cross-Cutting Areas........................................................................... 16 Table 8. FIRMA Grantees' Characteristics ................................................................................................................ 17 Table 9. Total Number of DBs and Core DBs by Category ................................................................................. 21 Table 10. Key Informant DBs by Category ............................................................................................................... 22 Table 11. Key Informant VCFs ..................................................................................................................................... 22 Table 12. Key Informant Government Institutions ................................................................................................. 23 Table 13. Baseline Characteristics for FIRMA Treatment SMEs and Comparison Group............................. 30 Table 14. FIRMA Impacts on Sales, Exports, Employment, and Access to Finance ......................................... 32 Table 15. FIRMA Impacts on Sales, Exports, Employment, and Access to Finance ......................................... 32 Table 16. FIRMA Impacts on Sales, Exports, Employment, and Access to Finance ......................................... 32 Table 17. FIRMA Impacts on Sales, Exports, Employment, and Access to Finance ......................................... 32 Table 18. FIRMA Impacts by Sectors .......................................................................................................................... 33 Table 19. FIRMA Impacts by Sectors .......................................................................................................................... 34 Table 20. FIRMA Impacts by Sectors .......................................................................................................................... 34 Table 21. FIRMA Impacts by Sectors .......................................................................................................................... 34 i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank a variety of individuals who have contributed to the implementation of the FIRMA evaluation and the completion of the analysis for this final report. At USAID/Bosnia and Herzegovina (USAID/BiH), Elma Bukvic Jusic, our Contracting Officer’s Representative (COR), provided valuable guidance and assistance throughout this evaluation and has been instrumental in the design and implementation of the evaluation. Vladimir Milin and Nedim Bukvic, FIRMA CORs from USAID/BiH and Sida respectively, contributed to the report by helping us understand the design of the FIRMA activity and its management. We would also like to thank numerous FIRMA implementation team members, especially Dina Karic and Sanela Jarovic, for their prompt assistance
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