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Phoenix Copper Ltd Phoenix Copper Ltd Potential world -class copper -gold-silver mine b y P a u l M y l c h r e e s t Phoenix Copper Ltd Table of contents Silver lining to strategy change ............................................................................................ 4 Silver first, copper second ................................................................................................. 6 Red Star silver mine – the new model ................................................................................ 8 Copper mine: phase 1 and valuation ................................................................................15 World-class project potential .............................................................................................17 Decades of prior exploration ..........................................................................................17 Located in “elephant country” ........................................................................................19 “Zero-ing in” – local knowledge .....................................................................................22 Similarities with Antamina ...............................................................................................24 Porphyry hunting ...............................................................................................................25 Appendix – management .....................................................................................................29 Disclaimer ................................................................................................................................31 Status of Hardman & Co’s research under MiFID II ..................................................31 14 May 2020 14 May 2020 Mining PHOENIX COPPER LTD Daily PXC.L 14/05/2018 - 14/05/2020 (LON) Line, PXC.L, Trade Price(Last), 13/05/2020, 17.1, +1.0, (+5.71%) Price GBp 35 30 Potential world-class copper-gold-silver mine 25 20 17.1 15 PXC has consolidated the former Empire mine (which recovered a phenomenal 10 Auto 3.64% copper before WWII suspension), three other former mines and two J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 deposits into a potentially world-class copper/precious metals project located in one of the most favourable mining regions, Idaho, US. The planned initial silver Source: Refinitiv mine will provide cashflows to develop the extensive copper-gold-zinc mineralisation in the rest of the ore body. Our estimated DCF valuation (based on Market data silver mine only) is 31p/share. Substantial development work has been done on a EPIC/TKR PXC first-stage (shallow oxide ore) copper mine, for which we estimate a £17.3m NPV Price (p) 17.90 if greenlighted today. 12m High (p) 23.94 12m Low (p) 5.00 Shares (m) 60.17 ► Strategy: PXC focuses on near-term cashflow and will maximise returns/minimise Mkt Cap (£m) 10.77 risk to shareholders by developing the Empire system in stages. The project’s EV (£m) 11.36 polymetallic nature has enabled PXC to change the phasing of mine development, Free Float* 84.30% substituting a silver mine for the previously planned open pit copper mine. Market AIM *As defined by AIM Rule 26 ► Silver mine: Careful mine planning has reduced the capital cost to $31.8m, versus the $51m cost for the first copper mine. The new plan sees 23.0m oz silver Description equivalent (Ag Eq.) during 2022-31, with cash production costs of $7.60/oz Ag Phoenix Copper (PXC) is developing Eq. Permitting is under way, and commissioning is expected in 2022. the former Empire deposit, and the surrounding area in central Idaho, into ► Major upside potential: Only ca.1% of Empire’s potential ore system has so far a potentially world- class copper and been explored. Geologically, the deposit shows similarities with Antamina in Peru, polymetallic mine. First production is the world’s largest skarn-hosted copper mine. Further work will confirm whether expected in 2022. there are additional copper-tungsten-molybdenum porphyry resources at depth. Company information Chairman M. Edwards-Jones ► Risks: PXC is subject to the normal risks for a junior miner, including volatility in CEO Ryan McDermott silver prices, identifying additional ore resources, operational risks in executing CFO Richard Wilkins the mining plan, running processing facilities, and funding risks. However, we CTO Roger Turner believe that jurisdictional risk is significantly reduced in PXC’s case. Director Dennis Thomas +44 7590 216 657 ► Investment summary: Our DCF valuation is 31p/share, based solely on the www.phoenixcopperlimited.com silver mine, a cautious (for now) 15% discount rate and a long-term silver price of $19.00/oz. PXC’s share price is highly geared to the upside thesis for silver Key shareholders (and copper), with each $1.00/oz adding an estimated 6.2p-6.3p/share. Martin Hughes (Cheviot) 22.40% JIM Nominees Ltd. 8.30% Directors & mgt. 9.44% Lynchwood Nominees Ltd. 5.62% Financial summary and valuation Diary Year-end Dec ($m) 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E Jun’20 Assay drilling results Sales 0 0 0 0 0 48.800 Q3’20 Updated resources J Underlying EBIT -1.654 -1.654 -1.105 -1.282 -1.313 0.787 Reported EBIT -1.654 -1.654 -1.105 -1.282 -2.082 0.787 Underlying PTP -1.652 -1.652 -1.128 -1.380 -5.069 -2.708 Statutory PTP -1.652 -1.652 -1.128 -1.380 -5.069 -2.708 Underlying EPS (c) -8.16 -5.82 -2.76 -2.44 -3.30 7.15 Statutory EPS (c) -8.16 -5.82 -2.76 -2.44 -3.30 7.15 Net (debt)/cash 1.904 0.113 -0.589 -0.953 -26.530 -8.895 Average shares (m) 16.498 28.121 40.862 56.436 82.086 82.086 P/E (x) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 3.1 Analyst Dividend yield n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a FCF yield n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 112.3% Paul Mylchreest 020 7194 7622 Source: Hardman & Co Research [email protected] Disclaimer: Attention of readers is drawn to important disclaimers printed at the end of this document Phoenix Copper Ltd Silver lining to strategy change PXC floated on AIM in 2017, with clear PXC was floated on London’s AIM market in June 2017, with a clear goal to execute the phased development of the former Empire copper mine and nearby ore bodies strategy in central Idaho. Subsequent exploration works have fostered stronger confidence that Empire is part of a much larger polymetallic system, covering several kilometres laterally and, likely, at a depth well below the former mine works. Empire combined lowest risk and greatest PXC’s management team had screened numerous opportunities before identifying Empire as having the lowest manageable risks combined with the greatest upside – upside specifically the potential for a world-class copper and precious metals project. Phoenix Copper – location of Empire Source: Phoenix Copper Pre-recovery ore grades at Empire were Grasping PXC’s potential requires an understanding of the historical context of the Empire mine and the surrounding area. Before its closure due to WWII, underground over 6% – hard to believe in current era mining operations at Empire were focused on very high-grade veins of sulphide mineralisation. During 1901-42, 694,000 tons of ore were extracted, from which the copper recovery was 3.64% and the average pre-recovery ore grade from mine inspectors’ reports was estimated to be at least 6%. This is phenomenally high compared with copper mines in the current era. New mines scheduled for commissioning in the next few years have average pre-recovery ore grades in the range of 0.5%-0.6%. 14 May 2020 4 Phoenix Copper Ltd Why Empire? Wasn’t just stellar ore Several additional factors made PXC’s management choose Empire: grade. ► favourable jurisdiction – Idaho was ranked no.1 globally of favourable mining districts in the Fraser Institute Annual Survey of Mining Companies in 2018 (and is consistently in the top 10); ► substantial exploration data was available from post-WWII drilling programmes. At the IPO, more than 280 holes totalling 24,000m had been drilled; ► the mine site was accessed by a well-maintained road, with access to power and water to support the development of a major mining complex; ► there were no environmental liabilities relating to the former mining operations; ► the ability to access the old underground workings would significantly reduce drilling costs in the delineation of a new sulphide resource; and ► only a small fraction of the potential ore system had been explored. PXC has enlarged Empire claim into PXC acquired an 80% interest in the leases related to the Empire mine in 2013. By purchasing adjacent claims in the intervening period, the company has enlarged the potential mineralised “system” original 818-acre Empire property into 5,717 acres. PXC’s portfolio now includes: ► three other former mines – Horseshoe, Bluebird and the White Knob Mining Group (White Knob), which produced copper, gold, silver, lead, zinc and tungsten at various times during the first half of the twentieth century; ► the Red Star sulphide deposit – the site of the proposed silver mine – which is located north west of the Empire copper oxide deposit; and ► the Carlin-type (sediment-hosted hydrothermal) Navarre gold zone. Mineralisation at the Empire system has been observed along a 5.4km strike that trends north west from the Empire open pit (oxide deposit) via Red Star and the White Knob and Horseshoe mines. Phoenix Copper – Empire and nearby mines and deposits Source: Phoenix Copper 14 May 2020 5 Phoenix Copper Ltd Empire “system” likely to be associated It is becoming increasingly likely that Empire, and the surrounding mines and deposits, are part of a much larger mineralised “system”. PXC’s consulting geologist, with one mineralisation event Nigel Maund, published two reports in 2019: A Report on a Field Visit Made to the Empire Cu-Au-Ag-(Zn) Project, Idaho, USA, and Field Review: Red Star & White Knob Mine Group (Cu) +Pb + Zn + Ag + (Au) Prospects. In Maund’s opinion: “The Empire Granite Porphyry Breccia (GPB) – Endoskarn copper + gold + silver + zinc + lead + molybdenum + tungsten – comprises a world-class polymetallic ore system sitting astride a major N-S structure.” Mineralisation hosted in endoskarn, The mineralisation identified and exploited so far is hosted in garnet-pyroxene endoskarn (see below).
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