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10Th Anniversary of the ECB a Nni V E Rsar Th 10 EN EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK MONTHLY BULLETIN 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ECB 1998 - 2008 10 TH MONTHLY BULLETIN MONTHLY A NNI V E RSAR Y OF THE ECB OF MONTHLY BULLETIN 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ECB In 2008 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €10 banknote. © European Central Bank 2008 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Website http://www.ecb.europa.eu Fax +49 69 1344 6000 This Bulletin was produced under the responsibility of the Executive Board of the ECB. Translations are prepared and published by the national central banks. All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. Photographs: ESKQ EUMETSAT Claudio Hils Martin Joppen The cut-off date for the statistics included in this issue was 9 April 2008. ISSN 1561-0136 (print) ISSN 1725-2822 (online) CONTENTS Boxes: FOREWORD 5 1 Modelling the euro area economy 36 HISTORICAL CONTEXT 8 2 Key communication tools and channels used by the ECB 50 INTRODUCTION 11 3 The Eurosystem’s collateral framework 54 4 The transmission mechanism of monetary INSTITUTIONAL SETTING AND WORKINGS policy 59 OF THE EURO AREA 21 5 Understanding infl ation persistence and THE ECB’S MONETARY POLICY STRATEGY determinants of wage dynamics 80 AND ITS IMPLEMENTATION 33 6 Preliminary fi ndings of the ECB’s work on fi nancial development 104 ECONOMIC POLICY CHALLENGES AND 7 Role of the Harmonised Index of ENLARGEMENT 65 Consumer Prices 135 THE EURO’S IMPACT ON TRADE AND CAPITAL FLOWS AND ITS INTERNATIONAL ROLE 89 FINANCIAL INTEGRATION 101 FINANCIAL STABILITY AND OVERSIGHT 117 STATISTICS 133 EURO BANKNOTES – A TANGIBLE SYMBOL OF INTEGRATION 139 CONCLUDING REMARKS 145 ANNEX 10 years of euro area statistics and their comparison with those for other major economic areas 149 ECB Monthly Bulletin 10th Anniversary of the ECB 3 ABBREVIATIONS COUNTRIES LU Luxembourg BE Belgium HU Hungary BG Bulgaria MT Malta CZ Czech Republic NL Netherlands DK Denmark AT Austria DE Germany PL Poland EE Estonia PT Portugal IE Ireland RO Romania GR Greece SI Slovenia ES Spain SK Slovakia FR France FI Finland IT Italy SE Sweden CY Cyprus UK United Kingdom LV Latvia JP Japan LT Lithuania US United States OTHERS BIS Bank for International Settlements b.o.p. balance of payments BPM5 IMF Balance of Payments Manual (5th edition) CD certifi cate of deposit c.i.f. cost, insurance and freight at the importer’s border CPI Consumer Price Index ECB European Central Bank EER effective exchange rate EMI European Monetary Institute EMU Economic and Monetary Union ESA 95 European System of Accounts 1995 ESCB European System of Central Banks EU European Union EUR euro f.o.b. free on board at the exporter’s border GDP gross domestic product HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices HWWI Hamburg Institute of International Economics ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund MFI monetary fi nancial institution NACE Rev. 1 Statistical classifi cation of economic activities in the European Community NCB national central bank OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PPI Producer Price Index SITC Rev. 3 Standard International Trade Classifi cation (revision 3) ULCM unit labour costs in manufacturing ULCT unit labour costs in the total economy In accordance with Community practice, the EU countries are listed in this Bulletin using the alphabetical order of the country names in the national languages. ECB Monthly Bulletin 4 10th Anniversary of the ECB FOREWORD by governments, thus ensuring the full independence of the ECB. It also granted the ECB the exclusive right to authorise the issue of banknotes. The Maastricht Treaty had been negotiated and ratifi ed by national parliaments on the assumption that all members of the EU will, in the fullness of time, adopt the euro and therefore that the ESCB will carry out all the tasks related to the single currency. However, until that time, a group of central banks within the ESCB – the Eurosystem, comprising the ECB and the central banks of the countries in the euro area – is the key actor. The main decision-making body of the Eurosystem is the Governing Council of the ECB, which consists of the six members of the Executive Board of the ECB and the governors of the national central banks (NCBs) of the euro area countries. The Governing Council of the ECB has defi ned price stability as a positive rate of infl ation of below 2%, and has announced that it aims to maintain infl ation below, and close to, 2% over The European Central Bank (ECB) was founded the medium term. For nearly ten years, price on 1 June 1998. It became the independent stability has been broadly achieved despite central bank for Europe’s single currency, the the fact that strong global commodity price euro, which was launched in January 1999. A increases – on which monetary policy has no single currency among a group of countries direct infl uence – have affected Europe and the cannot exist without a common central bank rest of the world, leading to an average infl ation and a common system of central banks. So, the rate that has been slightly above 2% since the ECB and the European System of Central Banks launch of the euro. This is a remarkable result, (ESCB), comprising the ECB and the central taking into account all the shocks that have banks of all European Union (EU) Member marked the period and the track record of the States, were given the mandate to maintain economies participating in the euro area. In the price stability and to safeguard the credibility of decades before the launch of the euro, average the euro. annual infl ation rates in the respective countries were signifi cantly higher than in the euro area In May 1998 the European Council made one over the last ten years. of the most far-reaching decisions in the history of European integration. The leaders of the EU Stable prices are essential. Not only because decided that 11 Member States had fulfi lled the they protect the value of the incomes of all conditions for adopting the euro. This milestone and particularly of the most vulnerable and the had its origins in the Maastricht Treaty of 1992, poorest of our fellow citizens, but also because which set out the institutional framework of delivering price stability and being credible in the ESCB. The Treaty took monetary policy- its delivery over the medium term is one of the making to a supranational level and insulated preconditions for sustainable growth and job it from any pressures, including those exerted creation. By anchoring expectations of future ECB Monthly Bulletin 10th Anniversary of the ECB 5 in fl ation to low levels, in line with our defi nition The achievements of the past decade are due to of price stability, the ECB has reduced infl ation the vision and determination of the Governing risk premia, securing a fi nancial environment Council members, past and present, and due favourable to growth and job creation. Between to the energy and efforts of all staff of the the launch of the euro and the end of 2007, the Eurosystem. On this special occasion, I would euro area created more than 15 million new jobs like to express my sincere thanks to all those and the unemployment rate was at its lowest who have helped to build a solid foundation level since the early 1980s. for the euro. The single currency has become a proud symbol of a continent that has grown in The euro is playing a very important role in stature. promoting the functioning of our vast continental market, and therefore in accomplishing a true The Eurosystem works as a team, serving the Single Market. It has also helped to protect 320 million citizens who live in the 15 countries the euro area economy from the many global that have decided to share their destinies. The shocks and considerable turbulence of the last euro is our currency, and the people of Europe few years. know that we are faithful to the mandate they have given us. These achievements have taken time and considerable effort, for the ECB has been To all the ECB and NCB staff involved, I express moving in uncharted waters, making decisions my deepest gratitude for their outstanding of considerable scale and complexity, and contribution and for making this publication acting on them together with all the members possible. of the Eurosystem, the national central banks of the euro area. Among our many tasks in recent years, we have needed to understand how the newly created monetary union would function, once created, and what the complex dynamics of a major economic area moving towards full economic and monetary unifi cation would be. This special edition looks back at the ECB’s work over the past ten momentous years, addresses some of the most diffi cult developments over this period, and also looks at the challenges that the ECB and the euro area face as they enter their second decade. Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB Those challenges include, above all, making the euro area more fl exible and adaptable by improving structural and fi scal policies, as well as raising its growth potential. There is a permanent need to understand ongoing changes in the economy and adapt our tools to this in order to identify what is driving future infl ation. To remain credible, monetary policy needs to be constantly alert, keeping infl ation expectations in line with our defi nition of price stability.
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