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"The Economic Contributions of the Manitoba Potato Complex"

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The Economic[Insert Title] [Year] Contributions of the Manitoba Potato Complex Prepared for: Keystone Potato Producers Association Inc., Peak of the Market, Chipping Potato Growers of Manitoba, Seed Potato Growers of Manitoba, McCain Foods Canada, and Simplot Canada II Informa Economics Phone: 901.766.4669 November, 2014 www.informaecon.com Table of Contents I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................... 1 II. MANITOBA’S POTATO SECTOR .................................................................................................................................... 5 A. POTATO PRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 B. POTATO CONSUMPTION .................................................................................................................................................... 7 III. ECONOMIC IMPACT FROM MANITOBA POTATO PRODUCTION .............................................................................. 9 A. OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................................................................................... 9 B. ECONOMIC IMPACT OF POTATOES VS. CANOLA ................................................................................................................. 11 C. KEY MANITOBA INDUSTRIES IMPACTED BY MANITOBA POTATO PRODUCTION ....................................................................... 12 D. DETAILED INDIRECT AND INDUCED IMPACTS FOR KEY INDUSTRIES IN MANITOBA .................................................................. 14 IV. PROCESSING AND FRESH PACKING IMPACTS ....................................................................................................... 18 A. KEY MANITOBA INDUSTRIES IMPACTED BY POTATO PROCESSING AND FRESH PACKING ........................................................ 18 B. DETAILED INDIRECT AND INDUCED IMPACTS FOR KEY INDUSTRIES IN MANITOBA .................................................................. 21 V. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................................. 24 i List of Exhibits Exhibit 1: Manitoba Potato Production ................................................................................................................................. 1 Exhibit 2: Economic Impact of the 2013 Manitoba Potato Crop (2013) ................................................................................ 3 Exhibit 3: 2013 Manitoba Potato Economic Multipliers ......................................................................................................... 4 Exhibit 4: Manitoba Potato Production and Production Share .............................................................................................. 5 Exhibit 5: Manitoba Potato Yield and Production (2002 – 2013) .......................................................................................... 6 Exhibit 6: End Use of Canadian Potatoes ............................................................................................................................ 8 Exhibit 7: Impact of the 2013 Manitoba Potato Crop (Regional and National) .................................................................... 10 Exhibit 8: Boost to Manitoba’s Economy from Producing Potatoes over Canola in 2013 ................................................... 11 Exhibit 9: Economic Impact of Manitoba Potato Production to Manitoba ........................................................................... 13 Exhibit 10: Manitoba’s 2013 Potato Crop Indirect and Induced Impact on Output (Detail) ................................................. 15 Exhibit 11: Manitoba’s 2013 Potato Crop Indirect and Induced Impact on Gross Regional Product (Detail) ...................... 16 Exhibit 12: Manitoba’s 2013 Potato Crop Indirect and Induced Impact on Employment (Detail) ........................................ 17 Exhibit 13: Uses of Manitoba Potatoes............................................................................................................................... 18 Exhibit 14: Economic Impact of Manitoba Processing and Fresh Pack Operations (Net of Potato Farming) ..................... 19 Exhibit 15: Manitoba’s 2013 Potato Processor and Fresh Packing Indirect and Induced Impact on Output (Detail) .......... 21 Exhibit 16: Manitoba’s 2013 Potato Processor and Fresh Packing Indirect and Induced Impact on Gross Regional Product (Detail) ................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Exhibit 17: Manitoba’s 2013 Potato Processor and Fresh Packing Indirect and Induced Impact on Employment (Detail) . 23 Exhibit 18: 2013 Manitoba Potato Economic Multipliers ..................................................................................................... 24 Exhibit 19: Economic Contribution of Manitoba Potato Complex (2013) ............................................................................ 25 ii Disclaimer This report was produced for Keystone Potato Producers Association (“Client”), with additional funding from Peak of the Market, Chipping Potato Growers of Manitoba, the Seed Potato Growers of Manitoba, McCain Foods Canada, and Simplot Canada II. Informa Economics, Inc. (“Informa”) has used the best and most accurate information available to complete this study. Informa is not in the business of soliciting or recommending specific investments. The reader of this report should consider the market risks inherent in any financial investment opportunity. Furthermore, while Informa has extended its best professional efforts in completing this analysis, the liability of Informa to the extent permitted by law, is limited to the professional fees received in connection with this project. Acronyms TMT: Thousand Metric Tonnes MT: Metric Tonnes FTE: Full Time Equivalent Jobs $: All values in the report are in Canadian Dollars GRP: Gross Regional Product CWT: Hundred Weight or 100 pounds by weight iii The Economic Contributions of the Manitoba Potato Complex I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Potato production in Manitoba has averaged 20.5 million cwt (hundredweight) from 2000 to 2013. Potato production in 2013 was slightly above average at 21.5 million cwt (Exhibit 1). This production makes Manitoba the second largest potato producing province and the largest of the western provinces. The large size of the Manitoba potato industry prompts the need to understand the impact potato production and potato processing has on the Manitoba economy, as well as the risk of lost economic activity if the Manitoba potato production or processing were to trend lower. According to Statistics Canada, 2011 saw Exhibit 1: Manitoba Potato Production lower potato production and was at levels not 30 recorded since 2005. The lower potato production has a real impact on the economy and jobs within Manitoba. Manitoba is home to large processors, such as McCains Foods 25 Canada, Simplot Canada II, and also to the smaller Naleway Foods Ltd., and Old Dutch, as well as pack houses that handle potatoes 20 for the fresh market. Potatoes are harvested near the end of the year, which means that the impact of a low harvest is realized in 15 terms of processing shortfalls in the following year. In 2012, employees lost hours due to a shortage in potatoes to process. To the 10 extent potatoes were exported to other plants in the U.S. Manitoba also missed out on the Production Average Production (2000-2013) other value added benefits from potato CWT) of (Millions Production processing.1 This report estimates the 5 economic contribution of Manitoba’s potato complex, which includes production and value-added industries, such as processed 0 2011 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 potato manufacturing at the provincial level 2000 and for the national economy. Source: Statistics Canada 1 McNeill. “Simplot Canada II in Portage to cut hours as potato shortage looms,” Winnipeg Free Press 2/28/2014. 1 The Economic Contributions of the Manitoba Potato Complex Potato production is a high input enterprise. Each acre of production provides higher economic impacts than other field crops typical in the region, because of the increased costs (“upstream”) and income potential per acre. Depending on variety, marketing period (storage), and yield, operating costs2 can exceed $2,000 per acre. For perspective, the costs per acre are 4-5 times higher than corn and up to 10 times higher than other grains.3 When the potatoes are further processed in Manitoba it provides shorter transportation routes, which generally means local trucks are used. The processing plants provide jobs and due to the nature of food processing these plants support an array of service industries that keep them running. High revenue per acre, localized markets, and further processing for potato production means that potato growers add more value in comparison to other producers per acre. This provides additional value to the Manitoba and the overall Canadian economy. Potato production in Manitoba has provided economic benefits to both the province and the country as a whole. These benefits are in the form of the economic activity at the farm
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