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15z00 CH INA S01 19 Issues and Options in Greenhouse Gas Control Public Disclosure Authorized 'NP Public Disclosure Authorized - -q¢. a a -- Public Disclosure Authorized 6m.-~~~~~~~~~a POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CHINA SUBREPORTNUMBER 9 Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences Public Disclosure Authorized Beijing, China September 1994 CHINA Issues and Options in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Control Potential Impacts of Climate Change on China Report Number 9 by Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences Beijing, China September 1994 Supported by the Global Environment Facility The views expressedherein are those of the authors and do not necessarily representthose of the WorldBank. Copyright1994 Additionalcopies of this reportmay be obtainedfrom The WorldBank Industryand Energy Division China and MongoliaDepartment East Asian and Pacific RegionalOffice 1818H Street,NW Washington,DC 20433 OTHER SUBREPORTSIN TES SERIES: Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks in China, 1990. August 1994. Report 1. Energy Demand in China: Overview Report, February 1995, forthcoming. Report 2. Energy Efficiency in China: Technical and Sectoral Analysis, August 1994, Report 3. Energy Efficiency in China: Case Studies and Economic Analysis, December 1994. Report 4. Alternative Energy Supply Options to Substitute for Carbon Intensive Fuels, December 1994. Report 5. Greenhouse Gas Control in the Forestry Sector, November 1994. Report 6. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Control in the Agricultural Sector, September 1994. Report 7. Valuing the Health Effects ofAir Pollution: Application to Industrial Energy Efficiency Projects in China, October 1994. Report 8. Residential and Commercial Energy Efficiency Opportunities: Taiyuan Case Study, September1994, Report 10. Pre-Feasibility Study on High Efficiency Industrial Boilers, August 1994. Report 11. Foreword Thisreport is one of elevensubreports prepared by Chineseand international experts as inputs to the UnitedNations Development Programme technical assistance study, China:Issues and Optionsin GreenhouseGas EmissionsControl. The ChineseNational Environmental Protection Agency(NEPA) was responsible for overallmanagement of this subreport,with the project researchorganized by the the ChineseResearch Academy of EnvironmentalSciences. A completelist of contributorsis providedbelow.* Editoral assistancefor the Englishversion was providedby MadelynRoss and Todd M. Johnson. *Expert Group on Potential Climate Change Impacts on China Institute of Atmospheric Environment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, NEPA Tian Guangsheng Yang Lirong Ren Zhenhai Agro-Envrionmental Protection Institute, Chinese Ministry of Agriculture Tao Zhan Yang Suiun Chai Lubao Bao Xinan WangHongqing National Marine Environment Forecasting Center WangXinian Department of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University Han Mukang Insitute of EcologicalEnvironment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,NEPA Su Jiamnin ShengYingwa Modern Policy Center for Environment and Economic Policy, NEPA Wang Hanchen I CH]NA POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE October 28, 1994 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (As of January 15, 1994) Currency Name = Renminbi (RMB) Currency Unit = Yuan (Y) $1.00 = Y 8.70 Y 1.00 = $0.11 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System I mu = 1/15 ha ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS C - Carbon CAS - Chinese Academyof Science CH4 - Methane CO 2 - Carbon dioxide GCM - General circulationmodel IPCC - IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change MSL - Mean sea level NCAR - National Center for AtmosphericResearch (USA) N20 - Nitrous oxide ppm - Parts per million CONTENTS Introduction ........................................ 1 A. Survey of China's Climate ............................ 1 B. Global Warming and Climate Change Trends in China ... ........ 1 C. Potential for Future Climatic Change in China ................ 3 D. Impact Studies of Climate Change in China .................. 3 2 Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture,Animal Husbandry,and Flshery in China .................................. 4 A. The Impact of Global Warming on China's Current Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ........................ 4 Planting System ............................... 4 Animal Husbandry ............................. 7 Fisheries ................................... 8 Regional Differencesin Climate and Global Warming ... ..... 9 Impact of Climate Change&onAgriculture, Animal Husbandry, and Fisheries .................................. 11 B. Impact of Climate Change on the Agro-ecologicalEnvironment .12 Impact of Climate Change on Soil Erosion . .12 Impact of Climate Change on Soil Evaporation and Plant Transpiration .. 12 Impact of Climate Change on Soil Salinizationand Swampiness . 15 Integrated Assessmentof the Impact of Climate Change on the Agriculturaland EcologicalEnvironment . .15 C. Impacts of Climate Change on the Planting System ..... ........ 17 Impacts of CO2 ConcentrationChange ....... .......... 17 Indirect Effect of CO2 ConcentrationMultiplier ..... ....... 17 Impact of Rising Temperature ........ .. ............ 18 Impact of Extreme Climate ......... .. ............. 22 Integrated Assessmentof Climate Change Impact on Planting Systems ................ ................... 23 - ii - D. Impacts of Climate Change on AnimalHusbandry ...... ........ 27 Impacts of CO2 Concentrationon Grass Growth .... ....... 27 Impact of Temperatureand Rainfall on Grass Output ........ 28 Impact of Severe Weather on Grasses due to Climate Change ... 30 Estimation of the Integrated Impact of Climate Change on Animal Husbandry ............................ 31 E. Impacts of Climate Change on Fishery .. 33 Impact of CO2 ConcentrationChanges on Feeding Organisms ... 33 Impact of Temperatureand Rainfall Change on Fishery Regions . 34 Impact of Severe Weather .. 42 Integrated Assessmentof the Impact of Climate Change on Fishery Production .. 42 3 Impact of Sea-levelRise on the Coastal Regions of China.44 A. Introduction .. 44 B. Impact of Sea-LevelRise on the Coastal Regions of China . .46 Increase in Strength and Frequency of Storm Surge Disaster .... 46 More Areas Inundated by Sea Water . .49 Exacerbationof SaltwaterIntrusion and DifficultyDraining Off Sewage . .51 Increases in Flooded Areas and Abating Port Functions .. 57 IncreasinglySevere Losses from Coastal Erosion and Marsh Inundation ........ 58 C. Measures to Minimize Impact of Sea-LevelRise and Estimate InvestmentExpenses ..... ........ 61 4 Impact of Global ClimateChange on China's TerrestrialEcological Environment .................. 65 A. Impact of Climate Change on the Wetlandsof China .... ........ 65 Area and Distributionof Existing Wetlands in China ... ...... 65 Impact of Climate Change on the WetlandsEcological Environmentof China .......................... 69 Impact of Biodiversityof Wetlands ................... 72 Strategy for Mitigating the Adverse Impact of Climate Change on Wetland Ecosystemsof China .................... 72 B. Impact of Climate Change on Desertificationin China .73 Present Conditionand Reason for Desertificationin China .73 Impact of Climate Change on Land Desertificationin China . 78 Impact of Climate Change on the Prevention and Control of Sands.78 Strategy for MitigatingLand Desertification.79 - iii - C. Integrated Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Terrestrial Ecosystemsof China ...... ........... 79 Impact of Climate Change on Exploitationand Conservationof Natural Resourcesof China ..... .......... 80 Relationshipof Terrestrial Ecosystemsaffected by Climate Change to the Developmentof China's Society and Economy . 84 Regulationsfor Mitigatingthe Impact of Climate Changes .... 85 S Conclusions ........................................ 86 A. The Uncertaintiesof Climate Change Impact ...... 86 B. Response Strategiesin China to the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ..... 86 C. Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Mitigation Strategies ..... 88 D. Impact on the Terrestrial Ecological Environmentand Mitigating Measures ...................................... 89 References ......................................... 93 TABLES IN TEXT 1.1: The GCM Simulated Changes in Surface Air Temperature(Ts in 'C), Precipitation (P in %), Soil Moisture (S in %) and Total Cloud Cover (C in %) between 1990 and 2050 ....... .. 3 2.1: Sown Area of All Kinds Crops in China (1991) ...... 5 2.2: Tendenciesof Climate Change in Different Areas of China in 2030 .10 2.3: Types of Soil Erosion and its Changes due to Climate Warming in China .13 2.4: EvaporationSituation in China when C0 2 is Doubled .14 2.5: Impacts of Doubled CO 2 on Crop Yield . ............ ........ 18 2.6: Percentage of Area under Different Cropping SystemsPredicted by the Cropping System Model for Current (1951-80) Climate and for the Year of 2030) .19 2.7: Estimated Yield Change .26 2.8: Grass Resources in China .27 2.9: Distribution of Pasture in China .29 2.10: Yield Change of Northern Pasture in 2030 ....... ... .. .... .. 29 2.11: The Change of the Grass Output of Western Pasture in 2030 ... ......30 2.12: The Estimationof Effects of Rainfall and TemperatureChange on Animal Husbandry .................................. 31 2.13: The Estimationof Effects of Severe Weather on Yield of Grasses in Pasture ........................................ 32 2.14: Division of the Fishery Districts in China ..................... 32 - iv - TABIESIN TEXT (cont'd) 2.15: Temperature and Rainfall Changes in the Fishery Districts of China in the Year of 2030 ..........
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