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AMERICA's SECOND SOUTHERN BORDER? Mexico's 2014 Programa Frontera Sur and the Widening of North American Immigration Coope

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AMERICA's SECOND SOUTHERN BORDER? Mexico's 2014 Programa Frontera Sur and the Widening of North American Immigration Coope AMERICA’S SECOND SOUTHERN BORDER? Mexico’s 2014 Programa Frontera Sur and the Widening of North American Immigration Cooperation Jeremy Doran The University of Texas at Austin College of Liberal Arts ___________________________________________________ Professor Kenneth F. Greene Department of Government Thesis Advisor Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for Government Honors 2 Ó 2019 Jeremy Doran All rights reserved 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This project has been the most challenging and rewarding endeavor of my time as an undergraduate at UT. I am grateful for the support of my family, mentors, and friends, without whom I would have never been able to tell this story. I am thankful to Dr. Greene for his constant guidance and encouragement when I most needed it; to Dr. McIver for expanding my research competencies and for a well-run program; to Stephanie Leutert for diligently answering my onslaught of questions regarding US/Mexican security and fostering my excitement to learn more; to Dr. Weaver, Dr. Newberg, Dr. Mosser, Prof. Levy, and Dr. Fulton for their mentorship and friendship both in and out of class; to my mother and father for teaching me that perfection is never required and reminding me to relax; to John and Pooja for loving and supporting me without hesitation; and to Danielle, Vandita, Caroline, Madeline, Nicole, Shelby, Miles, and Maggie for being my best friends and greatest supporters. 4 AMERICA’S SECOND SOUTHERN BORDER? Mexico’s 2014 Programa Frontera Sur and the Widening of North American Immigration Cooperation Abstract This study seeks to answer whether Mexico’s 2014 Programa Frontera Sur (PFS) represents a widening of US/Mexico immigration cooperation and a shift toward what may become a multilateral North American immigration posture. Beginning in 2011, the US noted a steady increase in the number of irregular migrants arriving at the southern border after transiting from Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador via Mexico. In response, Mexico’s President Peña Nieto announced Programa Frontera Sur (“The Southern Border Program”) which aimed to protect vulnerable migrants entering via Mexico’s southern border with Guatemala and more effectively enforce the physical and technological infrastructure of that border. There is considerable evidence that the US pressured Mexico to introduce the program early and provided much of its funding. This thesis outlines the purpose of PFS within the context of Mexico’s previous immigration policies concerning the southern border. It then analyzes the program’s immediate effects on immigration and migrant human rights to understand whether it met its two primary short-term objectives before discussing the present-day state of US/Mexican immigration cooperation. This thesis finds that PFS represented an unprecedented step toward bilateral immigration cooperation. It argues that contemporary instances of cooperation would not be possible without the bedrock that PFS established in 2014. It concludes that greater US/Mexico immigration cooperation should be expected in the future. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................................... 7 CHAPTER 1 .................................................................................................................................. 8 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 8 Research Questions and Puzzle ............................................................................................. 10 Existing Literature on Immigration Control and the US/Mexico Relationship ............... 12 Drivers of Unilateral Immigration Control: ......................................................................... 13 Border Externalization and Multilateral Immigration Enforcement .................................... 19 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 23 CHAPTER 2 ................................................................................................................................ 24 Mexico’s 2014 Programa Frontera Sur ................................................................................ 25 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 25 Early Indications of the Program ......................................................................................... 26 Outline and Purpose of the Program .................................................................................... 27 A History of Mexico’s Policies Concerning Migration and the Southern Border ............ 31 Mexico’s Early “Policy of No Policy” and Evolving Migration Context ............................ 31 Mexican Security and Anti-Drug Trafficking Policy ............................................................ 33 Mexican Immigration and Refugee Policy ............................................................................ 35 PFS Versus its Antecedents ................................................................................................... 40 PFS’s Effects on Migrant Apprehensions and Human Rights ........................................... 41 NTCA Migrant Apprehensions and Returns Before and After PFS ...................................... 41 Human Rights Abuses and Migration Routes Before and After PFS .................................... 48 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 52 CHAPTER 3 ................................................................................................................................ 54 UACs and Political Crisis in the United States .................................................................... 54 NTCA Migrants at the US Southern Border ......................................................................... 54 The Resulting Political Crisis ............................................................................................... 57 Central American Violence and Mexico’s Response to Transit Migration ....................... 63 Violence in Central America ................................................................................................. 64 Mexico as a Country of Transit and Destination .................................................................. 67 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 70 CHAPTER 4 ................................................................................................................................ 72 US vs Mexican Responses to Mass Waves of NTCA Migrants Since 2014 ........................ 73 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 73 Political Shifts in the US and Mexico ................................................................................... 73 6 Mexico and the US’s Evolving Immigration Posture and Increases in Cooperation ........... 76 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 80 Discussing the Implications of Increased US/Mexico Cooperation After PFS .................. 81 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 81 A Safe Third Country? .......................................................................................................... 81 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 83 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................... 85 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................ 86 7 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AMLO Andrés Manuel López Obrador: Mexico’s president elected 2016. CBP US Customs and Border Protection DACA US 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Program DHS US Department of Homeland Security EU European Union ICG International Crisis Group INM “Instituto Nacional de Migración;” Mexico’s National Migration Institute MPP US/Mexico Migration Protection Protocols NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NTCA “Northern Triangle” countries of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador PFS “Programa Frontera Sur;” Mexico’s 2014 Southern Border Program SPP Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America STCA Safe Third Country Agreement UACs Unaccompanied Alien Children UN United Nations USAID US Agency for International Development WOLA Washington Office on Latin America 8 CHAPTER 1 RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND LITERATURE REVIEW Introduction “Migration is much quieter now that The Beast has been silenced,” (Sakuma, 2016). For decades, the infamous La Bestia1 train served as one of the many arteries guiding the flow of Central American migrants from the “Northern Triangle” countries of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras north through Mexico and into the United States. La Bestia is not a single train, but a complex network that deposited migrants at one of three areas on Mexico’s
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