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PAC memorandum Planning and delivery of the 2014–2019 rail investment programme September 2015 Interactive For full iPad interactivity, please view this PDF Planning and delivery of the 2014–2019 rail investment programme in iBooks or GoodReader Index 1 How is spending 2 What is included in the 2014–2019 Summary on the rail network spending programme, and how does this determined? differ from the previous programme? Introduction 4 How is 3 How have the issues Key Facts government with the programme Appendices responding? come to light? © National Audit Office Design & Production by NAO Communications – DP Ref: 10800-001 Key Facts £12.8 billion £38.3 billion Planned spending on enhancing The amount planned to be spent by the network, a 29% increase from Network Rail between 2014 and 2019 the previous planning period £1.3 billion 52% The estimated cost of electrifying the of the total portfolio of enhancement Great Western Main Line from London projects, by value, had uncertain costs to Cardiff in September 2014. Network when the 2014–2019 programme was Rail is currently producing a revised cost agreed. This is 60% of projects by volume estimate, which it expects to be higher 3 2 Reviews into Network Rail and rail Major electrification projects paused in June infrastructure investment, announced 2015 (Midland Main Line and TransPennine) by government since June 2015 Planning and delivery of the 2014–2019 rail investment programme Introduction Electrification work paused in June 2015 In June 2015 the Secretary of State for Transport made public his concerns about Network Rail’s ambitious £38 billion programme, Control Period 5 (CP5, 2014–2019). In a statement to the House of Commons on 25 June, the Secretary of State highlighted recent successful Network Rail projects including the re-opening of the storm-damaged Dawlish line, the new Reading station and the modernisation of Birmingham New Street station, as well as improvements in safety and the reliability of railway assets, and the continuing increase in passenger journeys. But the Secretary of State was concerned that important aspects of Network Rail’s investment programme Leeds were costing more and taking longer. He announced that electrification work on the Huddersfield Midland Main Line and the TransPennine route would be paused. The other major electrification project, Great Western Main Line, is seen as a top priority. Sheffield Manchester Government has commissioned three reviews, into: Derby Nottingham • how the problems with this planning period arose and the lessons that may be learned, to improve future rail infrastructure investment; Leicester • how the current enhancement programme can be delivered; and • the future structure and financing of Network Rail. Bedford This short briefing is intended to inform the Committee of Public Accounts of the key facts, in advance of the government reviews being published. It describes the process London St. Pancras of planning Control Period 5, outlines what has changed from the previous Control Period and details the government’s response. We have prepared this briefing based on facts agreed with the Department for Transport, Network Rail and the Office of Rail and Road. To avoid duplicating the reviews commissioned by the government, we have not attempted to evaluate why Network Rail will not be able to deliver as many improvements as it had planned, and have not attempted to attribute responsibility to any organisation. TransPennine TransPennine planned electrification work currently paused Midland Mainline Midland Mainline planned electrification work currently paused Planning and delivery of the 2014–2019 rail investment programme Network Rail’s ability to deliver the planned investment programme has been called into question Cost escalations Missed milestones Poor project management In June 2015 the Office of Rail and Road In June 2015 the Office of Rail and Road The Office of Rail and Road is investigating reported that renewals cost 19% more reported that: whether Network Rail is doing everything than expected in 2014-15, and that costs practicable to deliver its planned programme have increased significantly on a number • 36% of project development outputs and of enhancements. of enhancement projects compared with 35% of project completion outputs were Network Rail’s initial estimates. missed in the first year (2014-15) of Control Its interim conclusion (6 August 2015) is Period 5 (2014–2019). It is not yet clear that Network Rail’s weaknesses in project There have been particularly large increases how seriously these missed milestones will development, delivery and management on electrification programmes, such as the affect the delivery of projects, and services are systemic, and not confined to electrification of the Great Western Main Line. for rail users; and individual projects. • the electrification of the line between These weaknesses include: poor definition of Manchester and Liverpool was completed requirements; inadequate project governance; in March 2015. However, this was later and the absence of a defined framework than planned, resulting in the introduction and techniques for managing complex of electric trains being delayed by infrastructure programmes. four months. Planning and delivery of the 2014–2019 rail investment programme The Secretary of State has prioritised electrification of the Great Western Main Line The Great Western Main Line (GWML) is one of three major routes Network Rail planned to electrify in the 2014–2019 period. “ Electrification of the Great Western line is a top priority Work on the other two, Midland Main Line and the TransPennine route between and I want Network Rail to concentrate its efforts on “ getting that right Leeds and Manchester, has been paused as announced by the Secretary of State in June (see Introduction). Secretary of State for Transport, Patrick McLoughlin, 25 June 2015 Network Rail has carried out less construction work than planned, and the programme is now expected to cost more than originally forecast. New electric trains are due to enter service on the route from In January 2013 Network Rail estimated the cost of electrifying the Great Western May 2017, as part of the Intercity Express Programme (IEP). The route between London Paddington and Cardiff1 to be £874 million between Department could incur train rental costs of up to £400,000 per day 2014 and 2019 (this excludes costs already incurred before March 2014). if the electrified lines are not available in time. In September 2014, when a single option for delivering the project had been identified, Network Rail estimated that the cost of completing the electrification Extent of planned electrification of the from Maidenhead to Cardiff between 2014 and 2019 would be £1,529 million. The Office of Rail and Road concluded, based on its review of Network Rail’s Great Western Main Line cost estimates and the cost risks and opportunities for efficiencies, that the efficient cost to complete the project, including an appropriate provision for cost risk, was Oxford £1,344 million. Swansea Bristol Didcot Henley-on-Thames Severn Tunnel Network Rail now expects the cost estimate to be higher. Network Rail is currently Parkway Parkway Cardiff Junction Marlow revising the cost estimate alongside a re-plan of the Great Western Electrification Central Swindon London Programme. Network Rail intends to produce a revised baseline plan later in Bristol Temple Paddington autumn 2015. Meads Reading Windsor & Newbury Eton Central Note Note: The electrification of the three Thames Valley branch lines, to Marlow, Henley-on-Thames and 1 Government requirements for the 2014-2019 Network Rail programme also include the electrification of Windsor, is separately costed in the CP5 programme and is not included in the discussion of total the Great Western Main Line beyond Cardiff, to Swansea. Cost estimates for this work are currently at an Great Western Electrification Programme costs, above. earlier stage of maturity. Planning and delivery of the 2014–2019 rail investment programme Summary 1 How is spending 2 What is included in the 2014–2019 spending 3 How have issues with the 4 How is on the rail network programme, and how does this differ from the programme come to light? government determined? previous programme? responding? Concerns about Network Rail’s The Department for The current spending programme has a greater focus performance in carrying out The government Transport and Transport (and higher spend) on ‘investment’ than the previous renewals, and about the cost has commissioned Scotland specify the periods. By investment, we mean renewals (replacing of the Great Western Main three reviews that will high-level outputs they worn-out assets with new ones) and enhancements Line electrification were initially look at what lessons would like to see over a (improving the network). A greater part of the renewal raised before the start of the can be learned from five-year planning period spending is in more technically challenging areas. current planning period. the planning of the and the funding available current investment to achieve them (Control The expected costs and schedules for some These concerns continued programme; Network Period 5, 2014–2019). projects, such as electrification work, were to grow, and there was an Rail’s delivery of Network Rail produce uncertain from the outset. The Office of Rail and increasing amount of evidence the investment a plan to achieve this. Road introduced a new mechanism (known
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