European Union Foreign Affairs Journal eQuarterly for European Foreign, Foreign Trade, Development, Security Policy, EU-Third Country Relations and Regional Integration (EUFAJ) N° 04– 2015 ISSN 2190-6122 Contents Editorial ................................................................................................................................................................ 4 New Members of the Editorial Advisory Board ................................................................................................... 5 Presidential Elections in Belarus from 11.10.2015: What an Election Observer Mission Could Find Out .......... 6 The Systematic Roots of Russia’s Recession Marek Dabrowski ............................................................................................................................................... 20 Debate on Presidential Versus Parliamentary Systems: Should Armenia Opt for the Parliamentary System? Alik Sargsyan ...................................................................................................................................................... 38 Europe’s True Immigration Capacity: What We Can Learn from the US Green Card System Reinhilde Veugelers / Grace Choi ...................................................................................................................... 68 Trafficking in Human Beings in Conflict and Post-conflict Situation ................................................................ 75 Foreign Labour Force in the Economy of Modern Russia: Tendencies and Prospects Sergey Metelev .................................................................................................................................................. 115 The Democratic Peace Theory Grisha Aghajanyan ........................................................................................................................................... 183 From Rapporteur to Coordinator: The Different Roles Taken on by MEPs ..................................................... 187 Gazprom: Seeking a Rapprochement with the EU? Simone Tagliapietra .......................................................................................................................................... 189 Council of Europe's Vaclav Havel Human Rights Prize 2015 for Ludmilla Alexeeva .................................... 193 European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2015 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 1 European Union Foreign Affairs Journal (abbreviated: EUFAJ) eQuarterly for European Foreign, Foreign Trade, Development, Security Policy, EU-Third Country Relations and Regional Integration ISSN: 2190-6122 Published by: LIBERTAS – Europäisches Institut GmbH, Lindenweg 37, 72414 Rangendingen, Germany Phone: +49 7471 984996-0, fax +49 7471 984996-19, e-mail: [email protected] Managing Director: Hans-Jürgen Zahorka Registered: AG Stuttgart, HRB 243253, USt ID no.: DE811240129, Tax no.: 53 093 05327 Internet: www.eufaj.eu, www.libertas-institut.eu, Subscription Rate: Free. All previous EUFAJ issues can be downloaded free of charge on www.eufaj.eu. Chief Editor: Hans-Jürgen Zahorka Editors: Ofelya Sargsyan (managing), Frederic Labarre Editorial Advisory Board: Židas Daskalovski, Ph.D., CRPM Skopje, professor of political science, University of Bitola, Macedonia Catherine Maia, professor of law, University Porto, Portugal, and Dijon, France Pierre Menguy, president of Maison de l'Europe de la Seine, Le Havre/France, Member of Team Europe France Sergey Metelev, professor of economy, Russian State University for Economy, Omsk, Russia Saulius Nefas, professor of administrative science, Mykolos Romeros University, Vilnius/Lithuania Martin Pontzen, Dr. rer. pol., Bundesbank Director, German Federal Bank, Frankfurt/Main, Germany Olivier Védrine, Kiev, Ukraine Viktor Yengibaryan, President of European Movement Armenia, Yerevan, Armenia Assistant Editors: Eka Meskhrikadze, Tbilisi, Georgia Meerim Oboskanova, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic Tamara Vatsadze, Tbilisi, Georgia All authors are responsible for their published texts. If no author is mentioned, the Chief Editor is responsible. All texts published under a name do not necessarily represent the view of the editors or Advisory Board members. EUFAJ is committed to European and international integration and to pluralism, different views and a public discussion. Copyright: Copyright requests are welcome. Reprints of certain contributions are free of charge, for others a license fee may have to be negotiated. Please ask the publisher for copyright permission. Proposal/example for quotation: EUFAJ [or: European Union Foreign Affairs Journal] 1-2015, then number of page (e.g. EUFAJ, 1-2015, 32). Papers, articles, reports, contributions: They should be sent to the Chief Editor by e-mail and as attachment in Word. EUFAJ follows a generous policy towards authors, who may decide themselves if they write a scientific or more practical article, or with or without footnotes (please no end notes). We reserve the right of adding annotations and comments. No guarantee for unsolicited articles which, however, may remain in our archive. All contributions are requested in English language; abstracts in other languages are possible. EUFAJ is published in English. European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2015 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 2 The EUFAJ Blog - between our issues, for topical announcements and new publications: http://libertasblogs.wordpress.com With contributions on e.g. Scotland or Catalonia as new EU Member States?, Human Rights in Azerbaijan, Armenia and the Eurasian Customs/Economic Union, the Eurasian Union, its currency plans, Vladimir Putin, the future of Ukraine, Ukraine's Maidan events, Istanbul's Gezi Park, the language policies in the EU, the UN decolonialisation policy, Africa, the Caribbean, our university cooperation, our new books and their authors etc. The blog counts more than 15.900 views from 138 countries presently. You can also follow this blog - then you will be alerted via e-mail. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EUFAJ in Facebook https://de-de.facebook.com/eufaj With news on activities, workshops, conferences, publications, pictures, people, cooperation partners - and the contents of the new EUFAJ issues. Complementary to the journal itself and the blog. For EUFAJ is far more than a journal. See all what is topical. If you "Like" the page, you will be alerted via Facebook regularly. European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2015 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 3 Editorial Dear readers, The European Union is in a terrible mess, due to the refugee crisis. The more governments, the more mess – and the more real EU institutions, the contrary. It is a mess because at the last Treaty negotiations, the EU Member States insisted on their competence in all asylum and immigration affairs. Also this – and it is a part of foreign policy – will have to be changed radically, and that is urgently. I am optimistic that the EU will emerge out of even this crisis strengthened. We have several articles on this subject in this issue, also comparative ones. Please, keep in mind that our journal is not a day-to-day news journal and is more able to highlight the background. We also have to think of our journalistic colleagues – this time again in Azerbaijan. Beginning of September 2015, the two EU Commissioners, Mogerini, responsible for Foreign Policy, and Hahn, responsible for Neighbourhood Policy and Eastern Partnership, issued a statement regarding the sentencing of Khadija Ismayilova in Azerbaijan: “The sentence of seven and half years handed down … to prominent journalist Khadija Ismayilova by an Azerbaijani Court is a sign of the difficult situation faced by independent journalists in Azerbaijan. The trial raised fundamental questions on the impartiality of the court and the legality of the accusation, as witnessed by the international monitors who were present during the trial. Their access as well as access for national observers was, as in similar cases, irregular and arbitrary, despite regular requests. We call on Azerbaijan authorities to review her case in a transparent and fair process, in full respect of the country's international commitments, including on media freedom.” Media freedom is of utmost importance for the Europeans, and not only for them: It shows that pluralism is a part of the raison d’etat. And it gives journalists and authors a task, namely to be a watchdog. With best regards, Hans-Jürgen Zahorka. European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2015 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 4 New Members of the Editorial Advisory Board We welcome two new members of the Editorial Advisory Board: Pierre Menguy from Le Havre/France, and Saulius Nefas, from Vilnius/Lithuania. At the same time, we thank the Editorial Advisory Board member, Olivier Védrine, for his valuable input during the first years of EUFAJ. He lives now in Ukraine and will leave the board per 31.12.2015. Merci Olivier! Pierre Menguy (on the photo left), originally a mathematician, statistician and economic scientist, was for a long time at the University of Le Havre/France, where he was heading the international operations of the university for many years. Later he became,