North Kyle Energy Project Other Application Documents Socio-Economic and Tourism Impact Assessment September 2019
Socio-Economic and Tourism Impact Assessment: North Kyle Energy Project
A report to North Kyle Wind Farm Ltd 24th September 2019
Contents
1. Executive Summary 1
2. Introduction 3
3. Socio-Economic Context 6
4. Socio-Economic Assessment 19
5. Wider Socio-Economic Effects 28
6. Tourism Context 35
7. Evidence on the Effect of Wind Farms on Tourism 42
8. Tourism Significance Assessment 45
Socio-Economic and Tourism Impact Assessment: North Kyle Energy Project
1. Executive Summary The proposed North Kyle Energy Project (proposed development) consists of 54 turbines with a combined capacity of approximately 226.8MW1 and is located approximately 6 km to the west of New Cumnock.
The economy of the immediately surrounding area was formerly based on coal mining and textile manufacturing, which have since declined in importance. Partly as a result of declining employment opportunities, the area has a relatively old population, high unemployment and relatively high levels of deprivation.
The economic impact of the proposed development has been assessed based on an analysis of the local economy and the experience of what has happened at other onshore wind farms, including case studies of other onshore wind developments in Scotland. The result of the economic analysis suggests that during the development and construction phase the proposed development is expected to contribute up to:
• £18.7 million Gross Value Added (GVA) and 279 job years in East Ayrshire; and • £85.2 million GVA and 1,308 job years in Scotland.
Development and construction impact of £18.7 million GVA and 279 job years in East Ayrshire
During each year the operation and maintenance of the proposed development could contribute up to:
• £1.9 million GVA and 26 jobs in East Ayrshire; and • £3.0 million GVA and 43 jobs in Scotland.
Annual operational impact of £1.9 million GVA and 26 jobs in East Ayrshire
A variety of measures were identified that could maximise the economic impacts associated with the proposed development. These include: early identification of potential suppliers using meet-the-supplier events and partnerships with East Ayrshire Council and Ayrshire Chamber of Commerce, giving requirements in plenty of time so that local suppliers are able to upskill; developing partnerships with local
------1 For the purpose of this application, it is assumed that the 54 turbines will each have a capacity of 4.2 MW giving a total installed capacity of 226.8 MW. It is possible that turbines with a different capacity, giving a different total installed capacity, could be used if they are available at the time at which the wind farm is constructed
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education providers, which may include Ayrshire College, to deliver industry training; and undertaking a post-construction audit of local content.
MW-related boost funding at financial close of £7.56 million2, as well as Community Benefit funding of £28.35 million over 25 years
Wider benefits associated with the proposed development include:
• boost funding of a MW-related £7.56 million available from financial close (i.e. during the construction period), which exceeds best practice guidance; • community benefit fund of £1.134 million, indexed annually, for 25 years following commissioning of the proposed development, which can be used to support local projects and community initiatives; • a shared ownership opportunity; and • non-domestic rates estimated at £2.7 million per year, giving £68.2 million over the lifetime of the development supporting the delivery of local public services.
Based on community action plans and the proposed North Kyle Forest Masterplan, potential uses for the community benefit funding were identified including developing assets for the tourism economy, such as accommodation and bike trails. Further uses could be to improve the appearance of local towns, for example by demolishing derelict buildings, and supporting measures to address fuel poverty. It is anticipated that a proportion of the boost funding be utilised to fund existing and proposed initiatives in the area, such as the North Kyle Forest Masterplan, and the Coalfield Communities Landscape Partnership.
A review of the economic impact literature to date has found that there is limited evidence to suggest that there is a link between the development of wind farms and tourism. An analysis of visitor attractions, recreational routes and visitor accommodation suggests that there would likely be a largely negligible effect on the relatively small local tourism economy.
------2 The boost funding amount would depend on final installed MW capacity of the Site, calculated at a rate of £33,333 per installed MW. For 226.8MW of installed capacity this would be £7.56 million.
Socio-Economic and Tourism Impact Assessment: North Kyle Energy Project 2
2. Introduction This report sets out the findings of a socio-economic and tourism assessment of the proposed North Kyle Energy Project, undertaken by BiGGAR Economics.
This assessment has been undertaken on behalf of North Kyle Wind Farm Ltd (the Applicant) on the basis of a 54 turbine wind farm, each turbine with an indicative capacity of 4.2MW, which indicates a total generating capacity of 226.8MW. It should be noted that the actual generation capacity (in MW) of the proposed development would be dependent on the turbine ultimately selected in a procurement process.
This assessment has been prepared for submission as part of the s36 application for consent for the proposed development. This assessment does not form part of the EIAR, rather it provides information on the broad socio-economic and tourism effects anticipated to be associated with the construction and operation of the proposed development.
2.1 Approach
2.1.1 Socio-Economics The approach that has been used to undertake this assessment is similar to the approach that has been taken in several other socio-economic and tourism assessments of onshore wind developments.
Before assessing potential socio-economic effects arising from construction or development, it is first necessary to place the proposed development in the context of the local economy. Therefore, a profile of the local and regional economy has been created using available statistics, as well as considering the aspirations of the local community based on available strategies.
The economic impact of construction and operation was then assessed, using a methodology that has been developed by BiGGAR Economics specifically to estimate the economic effects of wind farm developments, which is now considered industry best practice. This is based on research undertaken by BiGGAR Economics on behalf of RenewableUK in 2012, that was subsequently updated in 2015, which was based on case studies of the local, regional and national economic effects of wind farms developed in the UK.
The wider socio-economic effects of the proposed development were also considered, including the community benefit fund, the boost funding, a proposed shared ownership scheme and the contribution to non-domestic rates. The potential contribution to the community would be aligned to the aspirations of the community.
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2.1.2 Tourism An overview of the tourism and recreation assets was also undertaken, which considered the importance of the tourism sector to the local economy and how individual assets contribute to attracting visitors to the area. Tourism attractions, accommodation and paths within the vicinity of the proposed development were identified.
After reviewing the literature on the relationship between wind farms and tourism, the potential effect of the proposed development on these assets was then assessed.
2.1.3 Consultations As part of the consultation exercise undertaken to inform the Environmental Impact Assessment, the following consultation responses in relation to socio-economics and tourism were received (Table 2.1).
Table 2.1 – Consultation Responses
Organisation Response Addressed East Ayrshire Advises that potential positive and Socio-economic Council negative socio-economic impacts during effects are construction, operation and considered in decommissioning should be taken Section 4. account of. Asks that voluntary community benefits Wider socio- should not be included, although economic effects, proposals for shared ownership should including the North be. Kyle Forest Advises that potential positive and Masterplan, are negative impacts on the proposed North considered in Kyle Forest Masterplan and Coalfield Section 5. Communities Landscape Partnership should be considered. Strategies for long term public access to Effects on core core paths and rights of way should be paths and rights of considered. way are considered in Section 8.3. South Ayrshire Consideration to be given to Waterside The industrial rail Council and the industrial rail heritage centre it heritage is hosts as a tourism asset. discussed in Section 8.3. New Cumnock Asks that, given potentially significant Wider socio- Community funding from other wind farm economic effects, Council developments, the Applicant should including the North demonstrate where and on what projects Kyle Forest
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the proposed community benefit would Masterplan, are be spent on. considered in The potential effect on the North Kyle Section 5. Forest Masterplan and Coalfield Communities Landscape Partnership should be assessed. VisitScotland Full consideration be given to the Scottish Considered in Government’s 2008 research on the Section 0. impact of wind farms on tourism. Given the importance of scenery to Considered in Scotland’s tourism offering, VisitScotland Section 8. asked that a Tourism Impact Statement be undertaken, which may take account of the following factors: • tourists travelling past en route to elsewhere; • the views from accommodation in the area; • the relative scale of tourism impact; • the potential positives associated with the development; and • the views of tourist organisations.
2.1.4 Report Structure The remainder of this report is structured as follows:
• Section 3 provides a socio-economic context of the East Ayrshire economy; • Section 4 assesses the quantifiable economic impact of the construction and operation phases; • Section 5 discusses the wider benefits associated with the proposed development; • Section 6 considers the scale of the local tourism sector; • Chapter 7 reviews the literature on the relationship between wind farms and tourism; and • Section 8 assesses potential effects on local tourism assets.
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3. Socio-Economic Context This chapter provides a strategic and economic context for the local area.
3.1 National Strategic Context
3.1.1 Scotland’s Economic Action Plan 2018-203 The Scottish Government’s Economic Action Plan (October 2018) sets out how it plans to make Scotland a leader in technological and social innovations. It aims to deliver higher productivity and greater competitiveness, while transitioning to a carbon neutral economy through measures that support business, and encourage investment, innovation and upskilling.
At the heart of this strategy is inclusive growth, combining increased prosperity with greater equity, which requires getting the fundamentals right. These include:
• Investment: boosting private and public investment and delivering world-class infrastructure; • Enterprise: ensuring a competitive business environment; • International: growing exports and attracting international investment; • Innovation: supporting world-leading innovation; • Skills: providing a highly skilled workforce; • Place: supporting thriving places; • People: ensuring a sustainable working population where everyone can participate in, and benefit from, increased prosperity; and • Sustainability: seizing the economic opportunities in the low carbon transition.
3.1.2 Scottish Energy Strategy4 In December 2017, the Scottish Government released the Scottish Energy Strategy, which set out the Government’s vision for Scotland’s energy future.
In 2016, 54% of all electricity in Scotland was generated renewably, with a target of producing 100% from renewable sources by 2020. This increased to 68% in 20175. However, in 2015, electricity represented 24% of all energy consumed in Scotland, and the overall share produced by renewables was 17.8%. By 2030, the Scottish Government wants the proportion of all energy, including heat and transport, supplied from renewable sources to increase to 50%.
------3 Scottish Government (2018), Economic Action Plan 2018-20 (accessed https://economicactionplan.mygov.scot) 4 Scottish Government (2017), Scottish Energy Strategy: The Future of Energy in Scotland 5 Scottish Government (2018) Record Year for Renewables Generation (accessed https://news.gov.scot/news/record-year-for-renewables-generation)
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The Scottish Government has also highlighted that renewables present an economic opportunity as an expanding market which will continue to support Scottish growth. The Scottish Government will continue to support businesses in this sector.
Additionally, the Scottish Government has emphasised the importance of communities benefitting from renewable energy generation, including through community benefit funds and shared ownership6.
3.2 Local Strategic Context
Between 2012 and 2016 a number of community action plans were developed in the communities surrounding the proposed development. These are developed by steering groups made up of representatives of local organisations and businesses, and have been developed based on surveys of local people and school pupils, as well as consultations with key stakeholders.
3.2.1 Cumnock Action Plan 2016-20217 The Cumnock Action Plan was published in 2016. Cumnock is the second biggest town in East Ayrshire, with a population of 8,723 in 2013, a fall from its peak in 2004. Unemployment is relatively high in Cumnock, which is attributed to the closure of local mines, a reduction in manufacturing employment and a decline in the agricultural industry.
The survey of local people found that 31% listed the local economy as one of their dislikes. In addition, 40% listed the town’s appearance and 21% listed the lack of community facilities as dislikes. The survey also considered the likes of people in Cumnock, which included the nature of the community (53%), environment and outdoor space (24%) and community facilities/organisations and events (14%).
The action plan used the survey responses to identify a number of themes and priority actions:
• outdoor activities and open spaces – actions such as developing walking routes and other green spaces to make Cumnock more attractive and environmentally friendly, while enabling the people to be more active and fit; • the local economy – developing a new shopping centre, local markets, and existing business parks as well as improving employment and training opportunities were all highlighted as priority actions. Developing closer links with Dumfries House Estate was also mentioned as a way to increase footfall; • better town appearance – priorities include improving the town centre and developing more public spaces, as well as promoting business and community facilities through signs, infrastructure and campaigns;
------6 Scottish Government (2019), Good Practice Principles for Shared Ownership of Onshore Renewable Energy Developments 7 Cumnock Communities (2015), Cumnock Action Plan 2016-2021
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• community facilities, activities and events – developing new activities and facilities, such as a sports hub/community centre and an arts and crafts centre, to encourage more people to take part in activities; • tourism, history and heritage – putting Cumnock on the tourist map through preserving and promoting existing tourism assets and activities and creating new ones, and creating partnerships with other organisations and nearby assets; and • services – improving transportation, communication, education and health services as well as improving housing stock and community safety.
3.2.2 New Cumnock Action Plan 2014-20198 The New Cumnock Community Action Plan was released in 2014. New Cumnock consists of a village and surrounding rural area with a population of around 2,600, which is older than the Scottish average and has decreased from more than 3,000 over a decade. These trends are attributed to the decline of the coal mining industry and have been compounded by the closure of shops and the local hotel.
As a result, the community places village appearance (52%) and local economy (29%) at the top of their list of dislikes, with many people commenting on boarded up/empty buildings. Others commented on the need to improve paths and the local environment. The likes listed by the survey respondents included community spirit and friendliness (60%), environment and outdoor recreation (47%), and the nature of the community (29%).
In order to address local people’s concerns a number of themes were developed:
• main street and town centre regeneration – restoring and refurbishing the main street, including demolishing derelict buildings such as the derelict Crown Hotel, developing new focal points and improving the external condition of housing; • community and recreational facilities – restoring the Town Hall, improving and promoting the local outdoor swimming pool and integrating it with a new community and sports hub9; • local economy, tourism and jobs – making New Cumnock an attractive place to stop and stay, with amenities such as a local cafe, and promoting local crafts and produce to develop the tourism offering. There is a recognition that more training and job opportunities are also needed; • environment, heritage and outdoor recreation – developing trails and cleaning up rivers to promote Glen Afton, and potentially developing an Outdoor Recreation Centre. Exploring ways to promote local heritage, such as a Heritage Centre; and • access to services and transport – including more public transport, a greater police presence and more services for the elderly.
------8 New Cumnock Community Action Plan Steering Group (2013), New Cumnock Community Action Plan 2014-2019 9 The town hall and pool were fully refurbished by the Dumfries House Trust/Prince’s Foundation and reopened in June 2017
Socio-Economic and Tourism Impact Assessment: North Kyle Energy Project 8 3.2.3 Netherthird, Craigens and Skerrington Community Action Plan 2015-202010 The research for the Netherthird, Craigens and Skerrington action plan was undertaken in 2014. The community is based on the outskirts of Cumnock and was built in the 1950s to accommodate coal miners at the Barony and Killoch mines, which have since closed. The population is about 2,500.
The community lists its likes as primarily the nature of the community (75%), followed by community facilities/organisations (23%). However, village appearance is the most commonly listed dislike (57%), followed by lack of community activities (16%). Open spaces and outdoor recreation were listed as a dislike by 11% of respondents and the local economy was listed as a dislike by 10%.
Based on the findings of the community profile and community engagement the following priorities were identified:
• open spaces and outdoor recreation – upgrading facilities such as walks and a swing park, and building a new skate or bike park; • better village appearance – cleaning up the village, and decreasing the littering and dog fouling in the area, as well as upgrading the often shuttered shopping area and creating a community hub; • improve access to services – improving potholed roads, street lighting, and housing, and increasing the bus service; • improve community facilities/activities – protecting and expanding the community centre, while providing more facilities for young people.
3.2.4 Patna Community Action Plan 2015-202011 The Patna Community Action Plan was published in 2014. Patna is northwest of Dalmellington in the Doon Valley and had a population of around 2,200 in 2010, a slight increase from a decade previously. The main local employers, following the decline of the coal mining industry, are two care homes, although there are also construction related contractors and a specialist cake business.
The top dislikes of the community are poor access to services (33%) and the village appearance (33%). Other dislikes include lack of community spirit (24%), community safety (22%) and lack of activities/organisations/facilities (21%), which was specifically mentioned by respondents. The local economy was listed as a dislike by 11% of respondents.
The survey respondents also listed their likes as community spirit/friendliness (36%), the nature of community (31%) and environmental and outdoor recreation (21%).
------10 Netherthird, Craigens and Skerrington Community Action Plan Steering Group (2014), Netherthird, Craigens and Skerrington Community Action Plan 2015-2020 11 Patna Community Action Plan Steering Group (2014), Patna Community Action Plan 2015-2020
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Identified themes were:
• community facilities, events and activities – increase community events and groups to increase community spirit, and more facilities for young people, such as a skate park or astroturf pitch; • village appearance – improve the appearance of shops and increase decorative features such as hanging baskets, while removing derelict buildings; • local economy and services – attract more businesses, such as cafes, and develop attractions and facilities, e.g. toilets, in order to attract visitors. More employment and training opportunities was also identified as a priority, as well as increasing childcare facilities; • community safety and anti-social behaviour – increase police presence, more lighting and CCTV, and tackle issues like underage drinking and vandalism, so residents feel less intimidated; • outdoor recreation and access to the countryside – more walking and cycling routes, and outdoor park facilities; and • traffic and parking – increased maintenance of roads/pavements, a better path network and more traffic management to reduce speeding.
3.2.5 Dalmellington Community Action Plan 2012-201712 Dalmellington’s action plan is now somewhat dated, with much of the analysis taking in place in 2011. At that time the main settlements, including Dalmellington itself as well as Bellsbank and Burnton, had a population of about 2,800. Although the population of Dalmellington had remained stable, the population of Bellsbank had fallen by over 10% in the preceding decade.
As with the other towns discussed, mining was a mainstay of the economy until the 1970s, although employment has since fallen in this and other sectors such as manufacturing and forestry. The main employers in the local area were an opencast coal mine, as well as two care homes. The area is considered to have potential for tourism and recreation, considering its proximity to the Scottish Dark Sky Observatory. However, the town’s Doon Valley Museum has closed since the action plan was published.
While the town liked the sense of community (57%) and countryside (54%), dislikes included crime and anti-social behaviour (55%), appearance (53%), lack of amenities such as cafes and public toilets (19%), unemployment (18%) and poor community recreation (15%).
Priority areas of action were identified in the plan, including:
• town centre improvements – improving buildings and frontage in the town centre, more floral displays, managing traffic better and supporting business development to increase occupancy in the town centre;
------12 Dalmellington Community Futures Steering Group (2011), Dalmellington Community Action Plan 2012- 2017
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• tourism and heritage – this is considered the main source of regeneration for the town, particularly working with the Craigengillan Estate and Scottish Dark Sky Observatory. The plan also discusses new signage/information and improved visitor facilities; • environment and access – Dalmellington’s proximity to natural assets is seen as another way to boost tourism, and proposes investment in community woodlands and riverside paths, as well as the King George V Field; and • community pride, facilities and events – more facilities, organisations and events particularly for younger and older generations, which can help to reduce anti- social activity and improve community spirit.
3.2.6 Drongan, Rankinston and Stair Community Action Plan 2014-201913 The community action plan was developed in 2014, and considers the communities of Drongan, Rankinston and Stair, which are located to the north of the site. Drongan and Rankinston are former mining villages, and Stair is a smaller, more agricultural village. Unemployment is relatively high, which is attributed to the loss of deep coal mining and manufacturing, although new employment opportunities include Hope Homes and Glenbuild (building contractors in Drongan).
Though each of the communities is different, dislikes include roads, traffic and parking (32%), the village appearance (29%), the local economy (17%), lack of facilities, activities and events (15%) and lack of activities for young people (14%). People liked the community spirit (28%), community events, groups and facilities (28%), access to public services (24%) and surrounding countryside (24%).
Themes identified as potential areas of action include:
• improving village appearance and open spaces – improving/removing derelict buildings, as well as village entrances and the local burn; • improve community facilities/services – developing facilities for young people and opening existing ones more often. Also includes upgraded nursery provision and broadband; • outdoor play and recreation – upgraded parks and sports facilities, as well as new cycle paths and renovating waste ground; • roads, traffic, parking and transport – improved maintenance, a new bus service and better signage and parking; and • economy and tourism – improving tourism through new attractions, developing new training opportunities and supporting local businesses. Includes redeveloping old buildings to encourage new businesses in the area.
3.2.7 Ochiltree and Skares Community Action Plan 2017-202214 The community action plan was developed in 2016, considering the main priorities of Ochiltree and Skares. The combined population of the two communities is about
------13 Drongan, Rankinston and Stair Community Action Plan Steering Group (2014), Drongan, Rankinston and Stair Community Action Plan 2014-2019 14 Ochiltree and Skares Community Action Plan (2016), Ochiltree and Skares Community Action Plan 2017- 2022
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800. Employment opportunities are limited, many people commuting to Ayr, Kilmarnock and Glasgow and many people involved in agriculture. A number of factors influencing the economy and regeneration are cited including wind turbine development.
A survey of local people was undertaken which found that 76% of respondents liked community spirit, while 30% liked the village appearance and open space, and 18% liked community safety. Dislikes included facilities and services (47%), roads and transport (29%), and village appearance and open spaces (25%). Comments include ‘lack of things for children to do’.
The main themes and priorities identified as part of the community action plan is:
• community facilities and services – in [articular this included developing a new community hub, as well as investing in education facilities and housing to attract new people to the area; • building local economy and tourism – attract more shops and businesses and attract more tourists through promoting tourist attractions and training opportunities; • community spirit/activities and events – more events and school activities; • improved roads transport and paths – improved paths and walkways as well as traffic calming measures and expanded bus services; and • village appearance and open spaces – upgrading walks and village signs, as well as restoring opencast sites, reducing pollution, upgrading the dam and planting more trees.
3.2.8 North Kyle Forest Masterplan15 (the Masterplan) In April 2016, Forestry Commission Scotland (FCS) (now known as Scottish Forestry) undertook a study into how the North Kyle Forest could be transformed to generate social and economic benefits for the local area, including the towns of Dalmellington, Bellsbank, Patna, Waterside, Rankinston, Skares, Sinclairston, and New Cumnock. The key drivers of the Masterplan are:
• improving the physical environment of the North Kyle Forest; • investing in community health and wellbeing; • supporting economic regeneration in local communities.
Over half of the 4,000 hectare site is used for commercial forestry, which is dominated by monoculture Sitka Spruce of mixed ages. The remainder of the land is or was used for surface mining operations and the Masterplan discusses the significant resources that would be necessary to restore the landscape, which was host to various opencast sites and associated infrastructure such as roads.
The Masterplan also notes that the settlements immediately around the forest have seen widespread economic decline and the collapse of key industries over the preceding decades, including opencast coal mining. The nearby area has
------15 Forestry Commission Scotland (2016), North Kyle Forest Masterplan
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considerable deprivation, with more than a quarter of the study area in the 15% most deprived Scottish datazones. Compared to Scotland as a whole there is also a relatively older population, lower than average levels of employment, and low representation of high value sectors.
The area is considered to have tourism potential, given its proximity to the Galloway Forest Dark Sky Park and Scottish Dark Sky Observatory and Doon Valley, as well as the Craigengillan Estate to the south and Dumfries House to the west. However, a greater critical mass of high quality attractions is needed in order to develop the area’s tourism offering and attract overnight visitors.
Engagement with residents found that they want the Masterplan to recognise and capitalise on the local environment with more opportunities for outdoor recreation, more visitor attractions, and ‘a suite of renewable energy developments that could support community regeneration within the settlements’. It sets out how the forest could be connected with the surrounding local communities by building paths to provide local access for recreation and improving health. It is also hoped that the forest can attract visitors and generate income.
An action plan is included based on an appraisal of several potential actions. These actions are split across three identified themes:
• improving the physical environment of the North Kyle Forest – this includes site restoration, forest diversification and the creation of a forest hub; • investing in community health and wellbeing – this includes walking routes, cycle paths and watersports, as well as promoting culture/heritage in the area; and • supporting economic regeneration in local communities – includes signs and branding, a forest drive, tourism facilities such as accommodation, an adventure sports zone and leasing sites to local businesses.
The Masterplan notes that these projects, which are split into a Pioneer phase, a Transition phase and a Succession phase, are expected to occur over a 30 year timescale.
Significant public and private funding will be needed, though specific sources are yet to be identified.
The proposed development would provide significant improvements in line with the Masterplan by means of work undertaken to upgrade and improve existing and new access tracks, and by other restoration works additional to the wind farm construction works, which are proposed and described in the Planning Statement.
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3.3 Socio-economic Indicators
3.3.1 Study Areas The study areas considered as part of the socio-economic context are:
• the local area, as defined by the shaded red area on Figure 3.1. This corresponds roughly to the datazones immediately surrounding the proposed site and covers each of the communities discussed in Section 3.216; • East Ayrshire, as defined by the local authority area; and • Scotland.
Figure 3.1 – Local Area
Consists of the datazones of Auchinleck, Cumnock North, Cumnock Rural, Cumnock South and Craigens, Doon Valley North, Doon Valley South, Drongan, Mauchline, Mauchline Rural, New Cumnock
3.3.2 Population The population of the local area is 39,232, representing 32.2% of the total population of East Ayrshire, and the largest settlement in the local area is Cumnock. The
------16 Some of the datazones selected are quite large, due their low population density, and therefore the red area include some communities in addition to that which would be covered by the community benefit fund
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population is older than the regional and national average, with over a fifth (21.0%) aged over 65, compared to 19.8% in East Ayrshire and 18.7% in Scotland. Furthermore, the working age population is lower, at 62.0%, than in East Ayrshire (62.8%) and Scotland (64.4%). If the proportion of those aged 16-64 was in line with Scotland there would be an additional working age population of 900.
Table 3.1 – Population, 2017
Local Area East Ayrshire Scotland Total 39,232 121,940 5,424,800 0-15 17.0% 17.4% 16.9% 16-64 62.0% 62.8% 64.4% 65+ 21.0% 19.8% 18.7%
Source: National Records of Scotland (2018), Population Estimates 2017
The population of East Ayrshire is expected to decline by 3.1% over the period 2016- 41, compared to growth in Scotland of 5.3%. The regional population is also expected to have a higher proportion of the population aged over 65 (27.6%), compared to Scotland (25.3%). The share of population of working age is expected to fall to 55.9% in East Ayrshire, compared to 58.9% in Scotland.
Table 3.2 – Population Projections, 2016-2041
East Ayrshire Scotland 2016 2041 2016 2041 Change - -3.1% - 5.3% Total 122,200 118,462 5,404,700 5,693,201 0-15 17.4% 16.6% 16.9% 15.8% 16-64 63.0% 55.9% 64.6% 58.9% 65+ 19.6% 27.6% 18.5% 25.3%
Source: National Records of Scotland (2018), Population Estimates 2016-2041
3.3.3 Deprivation and Fuel Poverty The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) identifies small area concentrations of deprivation in Scotland using measures across seven different domains: income, employment, health, education, geographic access, crime and housing. This allows datazones throughout Scotland to be ranked and compared.
There are 55 datazones that make up the local area, as defined in Section 3.3.1, and 163 data zones that make up East Ayrshire. Two fifths (40%) of the local area’s datazones are in the most deprived quintile (0-20%) of datazones in Scotland, and a further 31% of datazones in the second most deprived quintile (20-40%). This suggests that the local area is relatively deprived, particularly in the domains of employment, income, education and health.
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Table 3.3 – Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2016
Local Area East Ayrshire 0-20% (Most Deprived) 40% 33% 20-40% 31% 25% 40-60% 20% 17% 60-80% 5% 15% 80-100% (Least Deprived) 4% 11% Total 55 163
Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2016
In the latest Scottish House Condition Survey, which covers the years 2015-2017, it was found that 17,000 households in East Ayrshire are in fuel poverty, defined as spending more than 10% of income on heating. This is equivalent to 31.7% of East Ayrshire households, compared to the rate of 27.3% in Scotland as a whole (Table 3.4). This may be as a result of lower average household incomes in East Ayrshire, though the rates of fuel poverty are particularly high in elderly households and in older homes.
Table 3.4 – Fuel Poverty, 2015-2017
East Ayrshire Scotland Fuel Poverty (%) 31.7% 27.3% Fuel Poverty (Households) 17,000 670,000
Source: Scottish Government (2018), Scottish House Condition Survey: 2015-2017.
3.3.4 Economic Activity Although data on economic activity is not available at the local area level, in East Ayrshire the economic activity rate is 73.4%, lower than the Scottish level of 77.4%. Additionally, East Ayrshire has a higher level of unemployment, with an unemployment rate of 6.4%, compared to 4.3% in Scotland.
The median annual wage of a full-time worker is £28,390 in East Ayrshire, lower than in Scotland, where the median annual wage is £29,274.
Table 3.5 – Economic Activity and Earnings, 2018
East Ayrshire Scotland Economic Activity Rate (16-64) 73.5% 77.4% Unemployment Rate (16-64) 6.4% 4.3% Median Annual Wage £28,390 £29,274
Source: ONS (2019), Annual Population Survey Jan 2018-Dec 2018. *ONS (2018), Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2018
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3.3.5 Industrial Employment The largest sector of employment in the local area and East Ayrshire is health and human services, which represents 17.7% and 23.3% of employment respectively. In comparison, the proportion in Scotland is 15.6%. Education corresponds to 8.3% of employment, compared to 7.5% in Scotland and 5.8% in East Ayrshire. These sectors tend to be associated with employment in the public sector.
The local area also has a higher proportion of workers in mining and quarrying (3.9%, compared to 0.8% regionally and 1.2% nationally) and manufacturing (10.3%, compared to 7.0% regionally and 7.1% nationally), though at 5.4% the proportion of construction workers is slightly higher than in East Ayrshire (4.9%) and below the level in Scotland (5.7%). This suggests that there may be some scope for East Ayrshire and the local area to bid for contracts related to the proposed development.
The local area and East Ayrshire are under-represented in higher value sectors, such as information and communication (0.4% and 0.7%) and professional, scientific and technical services (2.7% and 4.4%), which represent 2.7% and 6.9% of employment in Scotland.
Overall, the local area is responsible for about a fifth of employment in East Ayrshire (though this should be treated with a degree of caution as agricultural employment is not recorded in smaller study areas), with much of the employment in the local authority centred in Kilmarnock.
Table 3.6 – Business Register and Employment Survey, 2017
Local Area East Ayrshire Scotland Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.7%* 4.4% 3.2% Mining, quarrying and utilities 3.9% 0.8% 1.2% Manufacturing 10.3% 7.0% 7.1% Electricity, gas, steam and air 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% conditioning Water supply, sewerage, waste 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% Construction 5.4% 4.9% 5.7% Wholesale and retail trade 14.1% 14.0% 14.1% Transport and storage 6.4% 3.8% 4.2% Accommodation & food 10.9% 7.0% 7.6% services Information and communication 0.4% 0.7% 2.7% Financial and insurance 0.3% 1.1% 3.2% Real estate activities 0.7% 0.8% 1.3% Professional, scientific and 2.7% 4.4% 6.9% technical services
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Administration and support 3.8% 8.1% 7.5% activities Public administration and 6.2% 7.6% 6.1% defence Education 8.3% 5.8% 7.5% Human health and social work 17.7% 23.3% 15.6% activities Arts, entertainment and 4.7% 2.9% 2.7% recreation Other service activities 3.4% 1.7% 1.9% Total Employment (jobs) 8,660 43,000 2,589,500
Source: ONS (2018), Business Register and Employment Survey 2017. *The Agriculture, forestry and fishing category does not include farm agriculture, but does include support activities to agriculture, hunting and forestry.
3.4 Summary of Socio-Economic Context
The population around the proposed development is older than the population of East Ayrshire and Scotland and is likely to grow older and decrease in the future, partly as a result of limited employment opportunities. The area has a relatively high level of unemployment, as well as high levels of deprivation, particularly in the domains of income, employment and health.
Although the local area and East Ayrshire are under-represented in high value sectors, such as professional services and IT, they have a relatively high proportion of employment in mining and manufacturing, and may have scope to secure contracts in the construction of the proposed development.
Each of the local communities in the area around the site has drafted community action plans, informed by community profiles and surveys of residents. These found that the area is relatively deprived with an older, decreasing population, which is attributed to the decline of the industries such as coal mining and textile manufacturing. These action plans set out community likes and dislikes and the main priorities of the community, with common themes being the local economy, lack of community facilities and town appearance.
In 2016, FCS released the 30 year Masterplan for North Kyle Forest, which provides a blueprint for how to transform the local area by developing its physical infrastructure, for example through creating a new outdoor centre. Creating new tourism and leisure opportunities were highlighted as a way to regenerate the local area economically and improve the health of the population. The plan provides a vision for the future of the area, although as yet significant funding sources have not been identified. The proposed development would provide a potential source of funding for some components of the Masterplan (as discussed in Paragraph 5.1.2 below).
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4. Socio-Economic Assessment Using the methodology described below, this section considers the socio-economic impact of the proposed development’s two main phases: development and construction, and operation and maintenance.
4.1 Methodology
4.1.1 Assessment of Socio-Economic Effects Analysis of economic impacts was undertaken using a model that has been developed by BiGGAR Economics specifically to estimate the economic impacts of wind farm developments. This model was also the basis of the UK onshore wind sector for the then Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and RenewableUK in 201217. This was subsequently updated in 201518. The assessments are based on case studies of the local, regional and national economic impacts of wind farms developed in the UK in recent years.
Although there are no recognised methodologies for assessing the impact of wind farms, this approach is now considered best practice, having been used in reports for the DECC and RenewableUK. This model has been used by BiGGAR Economics to assess the economic effects of numerous wind farms across the UK and the methodology has been accepted as robust at several public inquiries for wind farms.
The economic model was based on two main sources: the analysis undertaken in the 2015 report on behalf of RenewableUK, which examined the size and location of contracts for the development, construction and operation of existing wind farms; and an analysis of the economies of the relevant study areas using local and national statistics.
4.1.2 Stages in Socio-Economic Analysis The starting point for estimating the likely economic activity supported by the proposed development was to consider the level of expenditure during the development and construction, and operation and maintenance phases of the proposed development. The next step was to break this expenditure down into its main components and make reasonable assumptions about what would be expected to accrue to the main contractors and sub-contractors.
------17 Department of Climate Change, RenewableUK (2012), Onshore Wind: Direct and Wider Economic Impacts 18 RenewableUK (2015), Onshore Wind: Economic Impacts in 2014
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Applying these assumptions to the initial expenditure provided an estimate of the amount of each component contract that could be secured by companies in East Ayrshire and Scotland. There are three sources of economic activity: the first arising from each of the component contracts and the jobs they support; the second would be from wider spending in the supply chain (indirect effect) and the third would be spending of people employed in these contracts (induced effect).
There are four key stages involved in the model (presented in Figure 4.1):
• estimating the total capital expenditure; • estimating the breakdown of capital expenditure into component contracts and subcontracts; • assessing the capacity of the business case in each study area to carry out the contracts; and • using the resulting figures to estimate the economic impact.
Figure 4.1 – Approach to Economic Impact Assessment
Source: BiGGAR Economics
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4.2 Development and Construction
The application is for 54 turbines with indicative 4.2MW of generating capacity each, which means that the total generating capacity would be approximately 226.8MW (the actual generation capacity of the proposed development would be dependent on the final turbine choice).
Using research undertaken by BiGGAR Economics on behalf of RenewableUK in 2015, the average expenditure on the development and construction of wind farms can be estimated based on the average spend per MW, the average spend per turbine, or a combination of the two, as appropriate. On the basis of this methodology the total development and construction cost is estimated to be £285.1 million.
The expenditure is split into four main categories of contracts:
• development and planning; • balance of plant; • turbines; and • grid connection.
The proportion of development and construction spend on each of the main categories was also derived from BiGGAR Economics research into wind farms currently in operation. This found that the largest proportion of capital expenditure (capex) was on turbine related contracts (67.6%), followed by balance of plant (21.3%), development and planning (5.7%) and grid connection (5.4%).
Table 4.1 – Development and Construction Expenditure by Contract Type
% of capex Value (£m) Development and Planning 5.7% 16.3 Balance of Plant 21.3% 60.8 Turbine 67.6% 192.6 Grid Connection 5.4% 15.4 Total 100.0% 285.1
Source: BiGGAR Economics Calculation
The economic impact of the development and construction phase was estimated for East Ayrshire and Scotland. In order to do this, it was necessary to estimate the proportion of each type of contract that could be secured in each of the study areas. The assumptions were based on the average from the RenewableUK research, analysis of the industries and professions in each study area, and BiGGAR Economics’ previous experience. To estimate the expenditure for each contract in each of the study areas these percentages were applied to the estimated size of each component contract.
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This suggested that East Ayrshire could secure contracts worth £28.2 million, which is equivalent to 10% of the capital expenditure. The largest opportunity for East Ayrshire would be with balance of plant contracts as companies in the area could secure 23% of contracts, worth up to £14.0 million.
Scotland could secure up to 36% of total capex, worth £103.6 million. This estimate was based on the assumption that the contract for the turbine towers would be secured by a Scottish manufacturer. If this were not the case, the proportion of contracts in Scotland would be 29% and £83.6 million.
Table 4.2 – Development and Construction Expenditure by Study Area and Contract Type
East Ayrshire Scotland % (£m) % (£m) Development and Planning 10% 1.6 63% 10.2 Balance of Plant 23% 14.0 68% 41.1 Turbine 4% 7.3 19% 36.9 Grid Connection 35% 5.3 100% 15.4 Total 10% 28.2 36% 103.6
Source: BiGGAR Economics Calculation
The contract values potentially awarded in each area would represent an increase in turnover of businesses in these areas. Using industry-specific data from the Annual Business Survey19, which gives the turnover/ GVA ratio for each of the industries involved, the GVA impact from any increase in turnover can be estimated.
On this basis it was estimated that the development and construction contracts would generate £13.8 million GVA in East Ayrshire, and £49.8 million GVA in Scotland.
Table 4.3 – Development and Construction GVA by Study Area and Contract Type
(£m) East Ayrshire Scotland Development and Planning 1.1 7.0 Balance of Plant 7.2 19.9 Turbine 3.3 16.8 Grid Connection 2.1 6.2 Total 13.8 49.8
Source: BiGGAR Economics Calculation
------19 Office for National Statistics (2019), Annual Business Survey 2017
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Similarly, the contract values potentially awarded in each area would support employment. Turnover per employee for each of the industries involved is also given by the Annual Business Survey, which allows the employment from any increase in turnover to be estimated.
The employment impacts during the development and construction phase are reported in jobs years rather than full-time equivalents (FTEs) because the contracts would be short-term. Job years measures the number of years of full-time employment generated by a project. For example, an individual working on this project for 18 months would be reported as 1.5 job years.
In this way, the development and construction impacts were estimated to support 210 job years in East Ayrshire, of which 104 job years would be in balance of plant contracts. It was estimated that 783 job years would be supported in Scotland.
Table 4.4 – Development and Construction Job Years by Study Area and Contract Type
(job years) East Ayrshire Scotland Development and Planning 16 97 Balance of Plant 104 294 Turbine 58 298 Grid Connection 32 93 Total 210 783
Source: BiGGAR Economics Calculation. Note, totals may not sum due to rounding
There would also be knock on effects in the supply chain and from spending by employees in the local economy. These effects are estimated by applying Type I (indirect) and Type II (indirect and induced) GVA and employment multipliers, which are sourced from the Scottish Government20, to the direct GVA and employment impacts.
In order to adjust these multipliers, which consider the national economy, for the East Ayrshire economy it was assumed that indirect multiplier effects would be 33% of the national impact, and induced multiplier effects, which consider the effect of local spending, would be 70% of the national impact.
In this way it was possible to estimate the indirect and induced impact during the development and construction phase. The combined impact would be £4.9 million GVA and 69 job years in East Ayrshire, and £35.3 million GVA and 524 job years in Scotland.
------20 Scottish Government (2018), Input-Output Tables 2015
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Table 4.5 – Development and Construction Indirect and Induced Impact
East Ayrshire Scotland Indirect impact (£m) 1.9 19.9 Induced impact (£m) 3.0 25.4 Total GVA 4.9 35.3 Indirect impact (job years) 31 321 Induced impact (job years) 38 204 Total Employment impact 69 524
Source: BiGGAR Economics Calculation. Note, totals may not sum due to rounding
The total impact during the development and construction phase is the sum of the direct impacts, indirect impacts and induced impacts. The total combined impact was estimated to be £18.7 million GVA and 279 job years in East Ayrshire, and £85.2 million and 1,308 job years in Scotland.
Table 4.6 – Economic Impact during Development and Construction
East Ayrshire Scotland Economic Impact (£m) 18.7 85.2 Employment (job years) 279 1,308
Source: BiGGAR Economics Calculation
4.3 Operation and Maintenance
The operation and maintenance impact of the proposed development was estimated annually as the impact would persist throughout the 25 year operational life span of the proposed development.
Annual expenditure on operations and maintenance was estimated based on analysis undertaken in the 2015 RenewableUK report. It was estimated that the annual operations and maintenance expenditure associated with the proposed development could be up to £7.1 million. Over the 25 year operational life21 of the proposed development this could amount to approximately £176.3 million. This excludes non-domestic rates and community benefit, which are considered in Section 5.
In order to estimate the economic impact of the operation and maintenance expenditure in each of the study areas it was first necessary to estimate the proportion of contracts that could be secured in each of these areas. These
------21 The lifetime of the proposed development is 30 years, of which 25 would be operational
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assumptions were based on the contract proportions reported in the RenewableUK report and the analysis of the industries present in each of the study areas.
Based on this information it was assumed that East Ayrshire could secure 38% of operation and maintenance contracts, worth £2.7 million, and that Scotland could secure 52% of contracts, worth £3.7 million.
Table 4.7 – Operation and Maintenance Expenditure by Study Area
East Ayrshire Scotland % (£m) % (£m) Operation and Maintenance 38% 2.7 52% 3.7
Source: BiGGAR Economics Calculation
As with the construction phase, the contract values awarded in each of the study areas represent an increase in turnover in those areas. The economic impact of the increase in turnover on GVA and employment was estimated in the same way as the construction expenditure, using the Annual Business Survey22.
In this way, it was estimated that turnover generated by the operation and maintenance of the proposed development could support £1.6 million GVA and 22 jobs in East Ayrshire, and £2.0 million GVA and 29 jobs in Scotland.
Table 4.8 – Operation and Maintenance Direct Impact
East Ayrshire Scotland GVA (£m) 1.6 2.0 Employment (jobs) 22 29
Source: BiGGAR Economics Calculation
There would also be indirect and induced impacts during the operation and maintenance of the proposed development. This was estimated using the same method as for the development and construction phase.
Adding together the direct, indirect and induced impacts, it was estimated that the total economic impact would be £1.9 million GVA and 26 jobs in East Ayrshire, and £3.0 million and 43 jobs in Scotland.
------22 ONS (2018), Annual Business Survey 2016
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Table 4.9 – Economic Impact during Operation and Maintenance
East Ayrshire Scotland Economic Impact (£m) 1.9 3.0 Employment (jobs) 26 43
Source: BiGGAR Economics Calculation
4.4 Maximising Economic Impact
The scale of the investment required to develop, build and operate a wind farm means that it represents a significant investment in the local area. Developers can maximise the associated impacts through a range of measures, which can have the benefit of increasing local support for a wind farm. It could also improve the delivery of the proposed development through having a more conveniently located supply chain and having scope to cut costs.
4.4.1 Best Practice in Supply Chain Development Best practice is set out in a 2014 report by RenewableUK23, which considered how developers can increase economic impacts in the local area. There are six main recommendations:
• maximise your local presence and begin early – identify potential suppliers and increase your visibility in the local area; • partnerships work – work with local authorities and business groups to gain information on local expertise and spread the message to local businesses; • leverage primary contractors – ensure that primary contractors also consider the impact that they can make in the local area; • provide the right information – give information in plenty of time and in the right format so that local businesses are able to prepare; • communicate technical requirements early – provide opportunities for local companies to upskill and form local consortia; and • demonstrate local content in planning – insert local-content commitments in the planning application where applicable and undertake post-construction auditing.
4.4.2 Supply Chain Development for the Proposed Development As recommended by the RenewableUK Good Practice Guide, the first step that can be taken by developers is to establish their presence in the local area. This allows a thorough, in-depth assessment of potential suppliers and the content that can be secured in the local area. Therefore, the Applicant intends to organise meet-the- buyer events in advance of the main tendering process so that businesses in East Ayrshire are fully aware of opportunities to bid.
These events could either be open or by invitation only, but in order to ensure that all potential suppliers are present the Applicant intends to work with local partners,
------23 RenewableUK (2014), Local Supply Chain Opportunities in Onshore Wind: Good Practice Guide
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including East Ayrshire Council and the Ayrshire Chamber of Commerce, to spread information about the event and attract local suppliers with the highest chance of bidding success.
These events could serve several functions, including making potential contractors aware of the opportunities presented by the proposed development and introducing primary contractors to interested local suppliers. These events could also provide an opportunity for local companies to organise into a consortium.
Early engagement is important as it gives local businesses, which may not currently have the required skills to bid for contracts, the opportunity to upskill. Therefore, training and support for local businesses should be organised to increase their capacity to bid. A number of schemes exist throughout the UK to support this kind of upskilling and relevant organisations, such as Skills Development Scotland, East Ayrshire Council and Scottish Enterprise, and these bodies should be consulted to advise on funding options for local businesses.
This would be supported by developing partnerships with local organisations which could include Ayrshire College, and SRUC/University of the West of Scotland’s campus in Ayr. These institutions currently offer courses in the renewable sector, and benefit from the relationships with existing wind farm operators who can facilitate use of existing infrastructure such as turbines for training purposes.
In addition, a Local Contractor Policy would be implemented where additional weight in the tendering process would be given to primary contractors that show a clear commitment to increasing local content in their supply chains. Based on experience elsewhere, it is anticipated that this would encourage the formation of consortia and joint ventures with local firms.
The Applicant also intends to undertake an auditing process so that the amount of local content sourced during the construction phase is recorded. This could be used to illustrate the benefits of the onshore wind sector for future applications and could be passed back to the local business community for their information and further consideration.
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5. Wider Socio-Economic Effects This section considers the wider socio-economic effects of the proposed development.
5.1 Boost and Community Benefit Funding
5.1.1 Initial Boost Funding: Contribution Following Financial Close The Applicant has committed to additional, substantial MW-based boost funding at financial close. Using the example of 226.8MW24 of installed capacity, and the boost funding of £33,333 per MW installed, would give a total value of £7.56 million.
This boost funding, separate from the community benefit amounts, would be available at financial close, before construction has been started, and be paid out over the circa. 3 year period of construction. The initial boost funding is innovative in nature as it presents an early injection of funding during the construction phase, whilst exceeding best practice guidance and providing financial support for projects and initiatives within 8km of the site.
Boost funding could be used to support the aims of existing initiatives, such as the North Kyle Forest Masterplan, the Coalfield Communities Landscape Partnership, other existing local initiatives, and on-going site improvement works, as well as new initiatives that may arise. This is discussed in more detail in Section 5.4 on community aspirations.
5.1.2 Annual Community Benefit Contribution following Commissioning The Applicant has committed to provide community benefit funding in line with Scottish Government guidance25, which is £5,000 per MW installed capacity per year (this contribution would be index-linked). Using the example of a 226.8MW development, this suggests that the annual contribution to the fund would be £1.134 million. Over the 25-year operational lifetime of the proposed development this would equate to £28.350 million.
Taking assumed annual indexation at 2% due to inflation into account, the amount made available would be £36.322 million. This represents a major financial contribution and resource to underpin regeneration and investment locally. The
------24 For the purpose of this application, it is assumed that the 54 turbines will each have a capacity of 4.2 MW giving a total installed capacity of 226.8 MW. It is possible that turbines with a different capacity, giving a different total installed capacity, could be used if they are available at the time at which the wind farm is constructed. 25 Scottish Government Good Practice Principles for Community Benefits from Onshore Renewable Energy Developments (Scottish Government, 2019).
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annual payments would commence following commissioning of the proposed development and continue for 25 years.
An 8km radius for distribution of the Community Benefit funding is considered to reflect the particular circumstances of the site, along with local community requirements to achieve locally focussed benefits on those communities mainly affected by the collapse of the coal industry.
Table 5.1 – Community Benefit Fund Example
Value Funding per MW (£) 5,000 Installed Capacity (MW) 226.8 Annual Contribution (£) 1,134,000 Total 25 year Contribution (£) 28,350,000 Total 25 year indexed Contribution (£, based on 2% index) 36,322,360
Source: BiGGAR Economics Calculation
As an illustration of the level of employment that could be supported by a Community Benefit Fund, figures from the Scottish Council of Voluntary Organisations finds a total turnover of £5.8 billion in Scotland’s voluntary sector, supporting full-time equivalent (FTE) staff of 106,800. This means that the turnover per FTE staff member in the voluntary sector was £54,30026.
By applying this ratio to the annual community benefit funding it was estimated that 21 FTE jobs could be supported in the voluntary sector by a community fund of this scale.
5.2 Shared Ownership
In addition to the community benefit fund and the initial boost funding, the Applicant is willing to extend an opportunity to local community organisations to share ownership in the proposed development by investing in it. Shared ownership is defined as any structure that involves a community group as a meaningful financial partner in a renewable energy project.
The Scottish Government outlined its support for shared ownership in NPPF3, which was reaffirmed in the Onshore Wind Policy Statement released in December 2017 and more recently in the updated 2019 Scottish Government Good Practice Principles for Shared Ownership of Onshore Renewable Energy Developments27. The Scottish Government is committed to shared ownership because it can help to create greater positive public feeling towards proposed projects and strengthen
------26 Scottish Council of Voluntary Organisations, State of the Sector 2018 27 Scottish Government (2019), Good Practice Principles for Shared Ownership of Onshore Renewable Energy Developments.
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relations between developers and communities, building the capacity of communities and empowering their members, and supporting Scotland’s ambitious targets for locally owned renewable energy. The 2019 Guidance states the Scottish Government would like to see “shared ownership projects being considered, explored, and offered as standard on all new renewable energy projects including, repowering and extensions to existing projects.” The Guidance sets out some of the challenges and risks to shared ownership how they might be overcome and where support for communities can be sought.
Although it could be challenging for the communities surrounding the site to raise the funds necessary to purchase a share in the proposed development, the Applicant has committed to provide funding for an expert in community development to support the community in assessing options for shared ownership. This would include providing information about potential funding avenues and ownership structures. The expert would also advise on how the funding could be distributed, for example through the North Kyle Trust.
5.3 North Kyle Trust
Although community benefit and other funds can be managed using several different structures, including incorporation of a limited liability company or through existing community councils or other local bodies, the creation of a development Trust is seen as the organisational framework best placed to maximise local social and economic benefits.
The Trustees, who would be responsible for administration of the community benefit fund, should be chosen with consideration for representing each of the local communities (the beneficiaries), so that they could apply for individual funding, as well as funding for the whole of the local area, which would not include the initial funding available upon financial close. It is expected that the Trust would have a representative from North Kyle Wind Farm Limited, and although the exact local area is still to be decided, the Trust could include representatives from:
• Cumnock • Dalmellington; • Drongan, Rankinston and Stair; • New Cumnock; • Netherthird and District; • Patna; and • Ochiltree and Skares.
Representation of the communities needs to be balanced by a consideration of efficient and effective administration, which could be aided by fewer Trustees. Some balance and skill would therefore be required to achieve the most appropriate structure. A qualified and impartial chair of the Trust would also be appointed, with a funded secretary and locally-based project manager, ensuring the ability to effectively direct strategy and administration. An expert in community development
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and shared ownership would also be funded to allow communities to gain an impartial view of how to assess the most favourable options for their particular circumstances.
The purpose of such a Trust is generally expressed in distinct but wide terms to allow the Trustees to operate with some discretion in operating and distributing funds. These terms would be set out in a Trust Deed, a document that sets out the Purpose and Beneficiaries of the Trust. Models are readily available from experience in other parts of Scotland.
A North Kyle Trust could also develop partnerships with local and regional organisations and initiatives, such as Coal Communities Landscape Partnership and the North Kyle Forest Masterplan, as well as supporting new organisations and initiatives in the area as they are developed. These could help to develop projects that would benefit the local communities, manage projects (either directly or by contracting with a third party) and also contribute to project funding.
An example of a successful community-run funding scheme is the Sanquhar Propel initiative. This is a project that involves 5th and 6th year pupils at Sanquhar Academy in Dumfries and Galloway in decisions about how to allocate funding from two community owned wind turbines, ensuring that the area and future generations can benefit. This model is something that is of interest to the Applicant as a way of allowing younger people to get involved in the distribution of funding for certain projects and initiatives.
The exact structure and nature of the North Kyle Trust is still to be decided and the expert and impartial resource funded by the Applicant would be able to advise the Applicant and communities on the most appropriate structure for the North Kyle Trust.
5.4 Community Aspirations
As a result of funding from the proposed development, the North Kyle Trust would have significant capacity to invest in the local community and would have the potential to transform the local economy and the local communities. This section sets out how the aspirations of the community could be met by the fund, though plans are at an early stage and specific projects would be required to go through an application process.
In addition to direct funding, the community benefit fund could be leveraged to attract funding from partner organisations, and therefore support an even more significant impact. This would be a role for the North Kyle Trust, specifically for the Trust’s manager.
5.4.1 Health and Tourism The North Kyle Forest Masterplan sets out the aspirations of the communities around the site to improve their physical health, connect with the environment and attract visitors to the area, supporting employment in the tourism sector.
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Potential developments that could be funded by the Trust could include:
• a physical visitor centre that would be a hub for physical activities, as well as directing visitors to other tourism assets in the area; • creating new walking and cycling routes, and routes suitable for horse riding. • improved signposting and marketing, including heritage trails with information about the local area; • developing accommodation, such as high quality timber eco-huts and bunkhouses; • supporting tourism businesses, e.g. bike hire business; and • supporting local training and development programmes.
There is a recognition that although many of the proposals could attract visitors into the local area, some form of support is needed to ensure their success. For example, the activity centre, signs and trails would need funding to be constructed and there could be a need for ongoing maintenance. A steady external funding stream would be required, which could be provided by the Trust and would secure their future.
In addition, the Trust could fund training schemes that would facilitate the proposals, such as woodworking and carpentry programmes which could be developed with partners such as Dumfries House. If successful, there could be further scope to develop a forest skills base, as discussed in the Masterplan, which could offer visitors and local people the opportunity to develop forest skills, including timber construction techniques.
The Trust could also contribute towards business development programmes and ongoing support for the projects that would require private operators, such as the eco-huts and bike hire.
5.4.2 Town Regeneration and Community Facilities As discussed in the community action plans, many of the communities have an interest in improving the appearance of their towns and villages, which are often characterised by derelict buildings and rather run down central streets and squares. Several were also keen to develop and expand community facilities, services and events.
As with investment in tourism assets, the Trust could support projects that would have an overall benefit to the communities, but could find it difficult to obtain funding. These could include purchasing and refurbishing unsightly buildings, such as the now closed former Crown Hotel in New Cumnock, and investing in new facilities such as public toilets. In addition to increasing local people’s enjoyment of their local areas, improving the appearance and amenities of the area would also increase attractiveness to visitors.
There would also be an opportunity for the Trust to fund community facilities, for example by supporting the development of facilities for both younger and older people, which could include upgrading community centres, sports pitches and skate
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parks. This could help to address issues related to anti-social behaviour and community safety that were raised in several of the action plans.
5.4.3 Fuel Poverty The funding associated with the proposed development could also support fuel poverty interventions, such as property repairs, insulation and more efficient heating systems and boilers. The prevalence of fuel poverty in East Ayrshire is 32%, higher than the Scottish average of 27%, and the total number of households with fuel poverty is 17,00028.
Although the exact cost would depend on the intervention required, and not all funding would be spent on fuel poverty, if the average cost of an upgrade was £2,000 the number of interventions that could be funded by a year of annual community benefit contributions would be over 560. Match funding could increase the scale of funding.
5.5 Environmental Improvements
In addition to providing a renewable source of electricity and the associated reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, the proposed development would have wider social and environmental benefits as part of the construction and operational phases. For example, new access points into the forest and new tracks will create links between existing communities, better connecting them. In addition, new tracks will be suitable for recreational use such as walking/biking/forest driving. Habitat improvements in relation to blanket bog and Black Grouse are also proposed. The above components of the proposed development will improve the area’s appeal to visitors and residents.
The local area would also benefit through the restoration of abandoned surface mining areas within the site, which would bring land back into beneficial use that could not otherwise be delivered. The overall value of betterment has been assessed as being approximately £5.2 million. Approximately half of that betterment is ‘built in’ and would be directly delivered through the proposed development with the remainder being ‘additional’ works that would be funded through the North Kyle Trust.
5.6 Non-Domestic Rates
The proposed development would be liable for non-domestic rates, the payment of which would contribute directly to East Ayrshire Council’s public sector finances. Analysis of the rateable values of several wind farms nearby suggests that the average rateable value per MW is £24,448.
Using an example proposed development of 226.8MW, it is estimated, after taking into account the 2.5% renewable rateable value relief, that the total rateable value
------28 Scottish Government (2019), Scottish Housing Condition Survey 2015-2017
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would be £5.4 million. Given a poundage rate of £0.492 per £1 of rateable value it is estimated that the proposed development could contribute £2.7 million annually to public finances, and over 25 years contribute £68.2 million. However, the actual contribution would depend on variables such as the actual load factor, and the potential for any relief from non-domestic rates.
These non-domestic rates, by providing an additional revenue stream, would support the delivery of local government services.
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6. Tourism Context This section discusses the local and regional tourism context.
6.1 Tourism Economy
The sustainable tourism sector in East Ayrshire accounts for £36.1 million GVA and 2,500 jobs, which in 2016 corresponded to about 5.8% of total employment (43,000 jobs). In Scotland, there were 207,000 jobs in sustainable tourism, which corresponded to 8.0% of all employment (2,589,500 jobs).
Table 6.1 – Sustainable Tourism Employment and Gross Value Added, 2016
East Ayrshire Scotland Employment 2,500 207,000 GVA 36.1 3,879.8
Source: Scottish Government (2018), Growth Sector Statistics 2016
6.2 Visitors
The number of domestic overnight visitors to East Ayrshire is given by the GB Tourist, which shows that on average there are 59,000 GB visitors each year, and they spend £12 million. This is equivalent to 0.5% of the 12.0 million visits which Scotland received in 2017. East Ayrshire is sometimes considered as part of the region of Ayrshire and Arran, which also includes South Ayrshire and North Ayrshire, and represents 9.4% of the region’s 629,000 domestic overnight visitors.
Table 6.2 – GB overnight Trips
East Ayrshire* Scotland Trips (000s) 59 12,004 Spend (£m) 12 3,079
Source: Kantar TNS (2018), The GB Tourist 2017 Annual Report. *This represents the three-year average between 2015-2017
The number of day visitors to East Ayrshire is given by the GB Day Visitor Survey, which showed that on average there are 3 million day visitors to East Ayrshire (3 year average), spending £64 million. In 2017, there were 151 million day visits in Scotland, with a spend of about £6 billion.
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Table 6.3 – Day Visitor Trips
East Ayrshire* Scotland Trips (000s) 3,000 151,000 Spend (£m) 64 5,995
Source: Kantar TNS (2018), The GB Day Visitor 2017 Annual Report. *This represents the three-year average between 2015-2017
Data on overseas trips are provided by the International Passenger Survey. There were an estimated 74,000 overseas trips to Ayrshire and Arran, representing 2.3% of the 3.2 million overseas trips to Scotland. It is likely that many of these trips would be to the other parts of Ayrshire and Arran, as demonstrated by East Ayrshire’s proportion of domestic overnight trips to Ayrshire and Arran.
Table 6.4 – Overseas Trips, 2017
Ayrshire and Arran Scotland Trips (000s) 74 3,210 Spend (£m) 41 2,280
Source: ONS (2018), International Passenger Survey 2017
6.3 Regional Attractions
The most visited attractions for Ayrshire and Arran are displayed in Table 6.5 below, as well as their respective distances from the development site.
Located to the west of the site, in South Ayrshire, Culzean Castle and Country Park is the most popular attraction in Ayrshire and Arran and is about 25 km away. Also, in South Ayrshire are the Heads of Ayr Farm Park and Robert Burns Birthplace Museum, which are respectively 19 km and 16 km from the site.
In Kilmarnock, about 24 km to the north of the site in East Ayrshire, is the Dick Institute Museum, and 30 km to the northwest in North Ayrshire is the Scottish Maritime Museum.
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Table 6.5 – Top 5 Most Visited Attractions in Ayrshire and Arran
Number of Approximate Distance Visitors from the Site (km) (1) Culzean Castle and Country Park 244,920 25 (2) Heads of Ayr Farm park 165,528 19 (3) Robert Burns Birthplace Museum 164,316 16 (4) Dick Institute Museum 116,064 24 (5) Scottish Maritime Museum 86,563 30
Source: VisitScotland (2018), Visitors to Ayrshire and Arran 2017
Figure 6.1 – Top Attractions in Ayrshire and Arran
Source: VisitScotland (2018), Visitors to Ayrshire and Arran 2017
6.4 Local Tourism and Recreation Assets
A small number of local tourism and recreation assets were identified based on an analysis of the VisitScotland website29.
These included Dumfries House, which is located approximately 6 km to the north the site boundary. It is a 18th century stately home, which was designed by Robert Adam and furnished by Thomas Chippendale, and was recently remodelled. It
------29 https://www.visitscotland.com/info/see-do/search- results?prodtypes=acti%2Cattr%2Creta&loc=East+Ayrshire&locplace=2411&locprox=0. Accessed 2nd August 2019.
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features a landscaped garden, a river walk, a walled garden, a cafe and a restaurant, and is a venue for weddings. The North Kyle Forest Masterplan30, which was released in April 2016, records the annual number of visitors as 20,000, which has remained stable since 2012.
Based on the vision of Prince Charles, who was influential in its restoration, Dumfries House also offers local pupils and residents the opportunity to learn a variety of skills, such as stone masonry, and woodland management. It has six learning centres, including the Kuanyshev Traditional and Craft Skills Centre and the Belling Hospitality Training Centre.
Also, in and around Cumnock are the Baird Institute, a museum containing resources related to the town and the wider local area, and the Blackstone Farm, which offers Clydesdale horse riding, as well as the opportunity to operate a digger and see farm animals.
About 12 km to the north of the site is the Burns House Museum in Mauchline, which houses some of Robert Burns’ original manuscripts and other objects. The poet lived in Mauchline between 1784 and 1788. To the northwest of the site, about 14 km away is the Bachelors’ Club in Tarbolton, another important site in Robert Burns’ life and now a museum.
About 4 km to the west of the site is the Scottish Industrial Railway Centre, where visitors can take trips on a small heritage railway section, view historically significant locomotives and live steam model railways, and learn more about Ayrshire’s industrial railway heritage. It is open every Sunday from May to September.
Approximately 3 km to the southwest of the site is the town of Dalmellington, which has attractions such as the Doon Valley Crafters and Coffee Shop and Adventure Doon. The shop offers a selection of local craftwork, as well as providing an opportunity, mainly to those in the community, to practise traditional skills such as weaving. Adventure Doon offers family-friendly combat archery tag, where players use foam-tipped arrows, and bubble football.
Craigengillan Estate is a 3,000 acre, 400 year estate located 6 km to the south of the site. According to the website31 this offers visitors, of which there are approximately 45,000 annually, the opportunity to ride, fish, kayak and walk, as well as providing accommodation and a venue for weddings.
On the Craigengillan Estate is the Scottish Dark Sky Observatory, which is a publicly accessible observatory, from which visitors can view the night skies through two large telescopes. To the south of Craigengillan, the Galloway Forest Dark Sky Park in one of only nine Dark Sky Parks in the world, and one of only two publicly accessible parks, meaning that visitors can see stars, planets and comets that may otherwise
------30 Forestry Commission Scotland (2016), North Kyle Forest Masterplan 31 http://www.craigengillan.com. Accessed 2nd August 2019.
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not be visible. According to the North Kyle Forest Masterplan32 there are 8-9,000 visitors to this observatory each year.
On the banks of Loch Doon, 13 km from the site, is Loch Doon Castle, a ruined castle that was originally built in the 12th century in the middle of the Loch, before being dismantled and partly rebuilt in its current location in 1935. Further north, approximately 7 km from the site is the small Loch Doon Visitor Centre/Roundhouse cafe, from where visitors can sometimes see nesting ospreys.
6.5 Local Recreational Routes
An analysis of the website ‘walkhighlands’33, which presents walks all throughout Scotland, shows that one of Scotland’s 29 Great Trails, the River Ayr Way, is 9 km from the site at its closest point. The River Ayr Way is a 44 mile (71 km) source to sea walking route, which follows the river from its source at Glenbuck Loch to the sea at Ayr and was originally opened in 2006.
The site lists four other short walks within 15 km of the site:
• Lady Hunter Blair’s Walk near Straiton, which is a 3.3 km walk approximately 10 km from the site; • Monument and Bennan Hill, near Straiton, which is an 8.3 km route and approximately 11 km from the site; • Ness Glen, near Loch Doon, which is a 3 km walk and approximately 6 km from the site; and • Craiglea Trail and Loch Doon Castle, which is a 3.5 km walk and approximately 13 km from the site.
There are no walks on walkhighlands that pass through the site. There are no core paths within the site boundary. A number of other forest roads and tracks cross through the site as well as the extensive Kyle Forest Haul Road that links up various surface coal mining areas. Many of the roads and tracks have been interrupted by surface mining. This includes a potential ‘Right of Way’ that is shown on the East Ayrshire Council online mapping system that has been interrupted by surface coal mining at House of Water.
Near the proposed development is the Coalfield Cycle Route, which, according to the Masterplan34, is not well signposted and connects Dalmellington with Coalburn.
There is one tourist route that is included as one of Scotland’s 13 Road Trips, which passes nearby the proposed development, the Galloway Tourist Route that connects Gretna with Ayr, passing through Dalmellington. At its closest point it is approximately 3 km from the proposed development. The route is noted for several
------32 Forestry Commission Scotland (2016), North Kyle Forest Masterplan 33 https://www.walkhighlands.co.uk. Accessed 2nd August 2019. 34 Forestry Commission Scotland (2016), North Kyle Forest Masterplan
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visitor attractions in Dumfries and Galloway, and the birthplace of Robert Burns near Ayr35.
There is an informal route that allows access, partly through the development site, to Benbeoch, which is a prominent hill adjacent to the site that has interesting geological features and good views from its summit. This route has been noted as being popular with local residents.
6.6 Accommodation
An analysis of accommodation providers available through VisitScotland’s database36 and Google was undertaken to identify local accommodation facilities, which have been grouped according to geography:
• near New Cumnock, approximately 4-6 km to the west of the site – there is one hotel (the Lochside House Hotel), the small Glen Afton caravan park, two bed and breakfasts (B&Bs), and one self-catered accommodation; • in and near Dalmellington, approximately 3-6 km to the south of the site – there are two small hotels (Eglington Hotel and Dalmellington House) in Dalmellington, and to the south there are two self-catered cottages at the Craigengillan Estate. There is also a caravan park on the banks of Loch Doon (Loch Doon Caravan park), which is approximately 8 km south of the site; • in and near Cumnock, approximately 4-6 km to the northeast of the site – there are two hotels in Cumnock (the Royal Hotel and the Dumfries Arms Hotel), one hotel in Auchinleck (the Railway Hotel), a hotel and two self-catered cottages at Dumfries House; • Mauchline, approximately 11 km to the north of the site – one hotel (the four bed Fairburn Hotel) and one B&B; • in or near Stair, approximately 10-12 km to the north of the site – one hotel (Enterkine Hotel) and two self-catering accommodation facilities; • in or near Coylton, approximately 9-12 km to the northwest of the site – one hotel (Trysting Thorn Hotel), one self-catered accommodation facility, and a caravan park (Sundrum Castle Holiday Park); • Straiton/Kirkmichael, approximately 10-15 km to the west of the site – one hotel (Blairquhan Castle), 5 self-catered accommodation facilities, and one B&B; and • other – one B&B approximately 5 km to the north of the site, and one B&B approximately 3 km to the east.
6.7 Summary of Tourism Context
East Ayrshire has a smaller than average proportion of employment in the sustainable tourism sector, and one of the top visitor attractions in Ayrshire and ------35 https://www.visitscotland.com/see-do/tours/driving-road-trips/routes/planner/overview/. 2nd August 2019. 36 https://www.visitscotland.com/info/accommodation/search- results?prodtypes=acco&loc=East+Ayrshire&locplace=2411&locprox=0&stay=&endDate=&r1a=2&r1childr en=0&r1infants=0&r1c=0&avail=off. Access 2nd August 2019.
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Arran is located within its boundaries, in Kilmarnock. There are a small number of tourist attractions within 15 km of the site, notably Craigengillan Estate and Dumfries House, but the local area does not have a strong visitor offering.
There are also a number of accommodation providers, located in small clusters around the site, particularly near New Cumnock and Straiton/Kirkmichael. There are a small number of short recreational routes assessed as being primarily local use, with none passing through the site. One of Scotland’s ‘Road Trips’ passes through the nearby town of Dalmellington, though none of the principal attractions associated with the route are located in the vicinity.
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7. Evidence on the Effect of Wind Farms on Tourism This section considers the evidence on the effect of wind farms on tourism.
7.1 BiGGAR Economics (2017), Wind Farms and Tourism Trends in Scotland
The most recent study undertaken of the effects of constructed wind farms on tourism in Scotland was completed by BiGGAR Economics in October 2017. The study looked at National, Regional and Local Areas, comparing employment change between 2009 and 2015, based on the location of wind farms constructed in the intervening years. This was an updated study of work previously published in 2016.
The analysis considered the effect on tourism employment at the National, Regional and Local level, noting that while the capacity of wind farms has more than doubled over the period under consideration, employment in tourism related sectors had increased by more than 15%.
The report also looked at tourism employment at the Local Authority level and found that this was not strongly correlated with growth in wind farms. Over the six-year period, almost all Local Authorities had increased the number of wind farms, while employment in sustainable tourism also grew significantly. The analysis found no correlation between tourism employment and the number of turbines at the Local Authority level.
The study also considered the impact on employment at a much smaller, more granular level, in data zones up to 15 km from wind developments. The sites considered were constructed between 2009 and 2015. As these sites did not exist in 2009, comparing employment in 2009 and 2015 was considered an effective measure of the effect of wind farms on local employment, while excluding construction impacts, such as wind farm related employees staying in local accommodation.
At the Local Authority level in these smaller areas, no link was found between the development of a wind farm and tourism related employment. In 21 out of the 28 areas considered, employment in this sector grew. In 22 of the areas, employment either grew faster or decreased less than the rate for the relevant Local Authority as a whole.
Overall, the conclusion of this study was that published national statistics on employment in sustainable tourism demonstrate that there is no relationship
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between the development of onshore wind farms and tourism employment at the level of the Scottish economy, at the local authority level, nor in the areas immediately surrounding wind farm development.
7.2 Glasgow Caledonian University (2008), The Economic Impacts of Wind Farms on Scottish Tourism
Whilst now a decade old, this study is perhaps the most comprehensive on the impacts of wind farms on tourism in Scotland, incorporating a literature review, an intercept survey of tourists currently in the studied areas, an internet survey, a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) study about the effect on accommodation and economic analysis of the results. The study covered the areas of Caithness and Sutherland, Perth Kinross and Stirling, Dumfries and Galloway, and the Scottish Borders.
The literature review, which particularly considered international studies, found that there is little evidence of negative outcomes in sensitive areas, as they generally don't have wind farms approved; although a significant number of individuals reported a loss of value, some thought that they enhanced the landscape; in Denmark, an established wind farm market, turbines are seen as a positive impact on the landscape; hostility to wind farms decreases over time; and there is no evidence to suggest serious negative economic impacts of wind farms on tourists.
The intercept survey carried out on tourists in Scotland found that although 25% viewed wind farms negatively, the majority had either a positive or neutral view. Furthermore, respondents who had seen a wind farm were less likely to be hostile to them. Although a significant minority (20-30%) preferred landscapes without wind farms, very few would change their future intention to revisit Scotland based on them.
7.3 VisitScotland (2012), Wind Farm Consumer Research
In 2011, VisitScotland commissioned a survey into attitudes of tourists towards wind farms, which surveyed 2,000 people in the UK and 1,000 people in Scotland, who had visited Scotland recently. Although the majority (86-91%) were in agreement about the importance of the natural scenery and landscape, for most of the respondents (80-83%) their decision to stay in the UK for a short holiday would not be affected by the presence of a wind farm.
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7.4 Scottish Parliament Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee (2012), Report on the achievability of the Scottish Government's renewable energy targets
In 2012, following an inquiry into the achievability of the Scottish Government's renewable energy targets, which included a review of some of the evidence presented above, the Scottish Parliament's Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee concluded that:
"Several witnesses made assertions that there would be a negative impact on Scotland‘s tourism industry from renewable developments. However, these assertions were contradicted by research evidence from VisitScotland and others.
Whilst care always needs to be taken in terms of the planning process and decisions on the siting of individual projects in areas popular with tourists and in our more rural and remote rural areas, no witness has provided the Committee with robust, empirical evidence, as opposed to anecdotal comment and opinion, that tourism is being negatively affected by the development of renewable projects. However, given the importance of this issue, the Committee recommends that VisitScotland and the Scottish Government continue to gather, and take account of, evidence from visitors to Scotland."
7.5 Summary of Evidence on Wind Farms and Tourism Evidence
A review of the economic impact literature to date has found that there is limited evidence to suggest that there is a link between the development of wind farms and tourism, and the literature that suggests that the potential effect would relatively be small.
However, an analysis of the potential effects on individual tourism assets was nevertheless undertaken and this is summarised in Section 8.
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8. Tourism Significance Assessment This section considers the potential effect of the proposed development on tourism and recreation assets.
8.1 Methodology
In order to capture all of the assets that may be affected, a detailed review of the tourism and recreation assets within 15 km of the site was undertaken as well as a detailed tourism assessment. No established guidelines exist for assessing a study area for assessing tourism impacts for onshore wind.
This was done using the significance criteria outlined in Table 8.1.
Table 8.1 – Significance Criteria
Significance Description Major Major loss/improvement to key elements/features of the baselines conditions such that post development character/composition of baseline condition will be fundamentally changed. For example, a major long-term alteration of socio-economic conditions, a major reduction/improvement of recreational assets, or a substantial change to tourism spend Moderate Loss/improvement to one or more key elements/features of the baseline conditions such that post development character/composition of the baseline condition will be materially changed. For example, a moderate long-term alteration of socio- economic conditions, a moderate reduction/improvement in the recreational asset, or a moderate change to tourism spend Minor Changes arising from the alteration will be detectable but not material; the underlying composition of the baseline condition will be similar to the pre-development situation. For example, a small alteration of the socio-economic conditions, a small reduction/improvement in the recreational asset, or a small change in tourism spend Negligible Very little change from baseline conditions. Change is barely distinguishable, approximating to a “no change” situation
Source: BiGGAR Economics
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8.2 Local Tourism Attractions
Dumfries House is marketed as a visitor attraction based on its architectural significance, its examples of Thomas Chippendale’s furniture, its landscaping, such as its walled garden, and educational/recreational opportunities available. The historical significance of the estate and recreational opportunities would be unaffected. The Applicant has made alterations to the layout which would reduce potential views of the proposed development, further reducing the possibility that tourists would change behaviour and so no negative effect on the tourism economy would be expected. The significance has been assessed as Negligible.
The effects on the Baird Institute, a museum of local history, and Blackstone Farm, which offers horse riding and the opportunity to operate a digger, have been assessed as Negligible. Similarly, the effect on Burns House in Mauchline and the Bachelors’ Club in Tarbolton, both of which relate to the life of Robert Burns, is assessed as Negligible.
Given the Scottish Industrial Railway Centre’s appeal to the area’s industrial past and its focus on train technology, as well as the limited opening times, the proposed development is considered to have a Negligible effect. It should also be noted that the Landscape and Visual Impact Assessment (the LVIA, contained in the Environmental Impact Assessment) found that the proposed development would not be visible from the attraction.
In Dalmellington the main tourism assets identified are Doon Valley Crafters and Coffee Shop, which is known for its selection of craftwork and hands-on experience of traditional crafting techniques, and Adventure Doon, which provides the opportunity to take part in archery tag. As such, the effect on each of these attractions has been assessed as Negligible. In addition, the LVIA found that Dalmellington is expected to have extremely limited visibility of the proposed development.
Despite the importance of scenery to its appeal, it is not expected that there would be a detrimental effect on the Craigengillan Estate associated with views of the proposed development, which are expected to be limited by the distance of about 6 km and intervening geography. Furthermore, it is expected that the ability to enjoy the activities such as kayaking, fishing and walking and the estate’s gardens and landscape would be unaffected and therefore the overall effect is assessed as Negligible. This in accordance with the findings of the chapter of the Environmental Impact Assessment report on Cultural Heritage.
The Scottish Dark Sky Observatory, which offers telescopes that are used in the night time, is considered unlikely to be affected by the presence of the proposed development, because it would not be lit with visible lighting during the hours of darkness. Therefore, the effect has been assessed as Negligible.
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Loch Doon, which has a visitor centre and a ruined castle on its banks, is likely to be visited based on the attractiveness and the tranquillity of the loch, the presence of ospreys, and Loch Doon Castle. It is not expected that any of these factors would be affected, and therefore the effect has been assessed as Negligible.
8.3 Local Recreational Routes
The main identified routes are the Coalfield Cycle Route and the River Ayr Way. Though the Coalfield Cycle Route passes within a few kilometres of the proposed development and some sections are expected to have clear views of the proposed development (see the LVIA), it does not appear to be of great importance to the local tourism economy, and is likely to be mainly used by locals. As noted in the North Kyle Forest Masterplan it is not well signposted, nor is information about the route widely available. Therefore, the effect on the cycle route is assessed as Negligible.
The River Ayr Way is of some prominence, and is listed as one of Scotland’s Great Trails. It is a significant distance from the proposed development, with generally intermittent views (as set out in the LVIA) that are not expected to affect enjoyment of the walk. Therefore, the effect has been assessed as Negligible.
Similarly, three of the walks identified on the walkhighlands website (Lady Hunter Blair’s Walk, Monument and Bennan Hill, and Craiglea Trail and Loch Doon Castle) are a considerable distance from the proposed development, and likely to have limited views. Furthermore, they are likely to be of mainly local use, and are relatively short. Therefore, the effect has been assessed as Negligible.
The potential right of way to the southwest of the site could experience some disruption during the construction, and an Outdoor Access Management Plan has been prepared to mitigate disruption. It is considered unlikely that this is used by visitors to the area, and the effect has been assessed as Negligible.
The Ness Glen, near Loch Doon walk is closer to the proposed development, approximately 6 km away, and accessed from the Craigengillan Estate. However, there are unlikely to be views due to its secluded nature, and it is unlikely that views would affect enjoyment of the Glen. Therefore, the effect has been assessed as Negligible.
Similarly, the Galloway Tourist Route, which passes through Dalmellington, is likely to have limited views of the proposed development and none of the attractions that are listed by VisitScotland as being on the route are near the proposed development. Therefore, the effect has been assessed as Negligible.
8.4 Local Accommodation
The accommodation around New Cumnock is presented as being in a peaceful area of the countryside, frequently advertising views of the Southern Uplands to the south of New Cumnock, or the Afton Hills. They also advertise themselves in terms of their
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heritage, either relating to Robert Burns or the buildings themselves, such as the Old Schoolhouse. It is expected that there will be some views of the proposed development to the west of New Cumnock. Therefore, the effect of the proposed development is assessed as Minor.
The accommodation providers in and near Dalmellington advertise primarily based on the proximity to Loch Doon and Craigengillan Estate and Scottish Dark Sky Observatory. As this proximity would not be affected by the proposed development, and the LVIA found that it is not expected that the attractions would be affected, the effect has been assessed as Negligible.
The accommodation providers in and near Cumnock to the northeast, including four hotels, predominantly advertise themselves based on their luxury and service, and are often aimed at the wedding market. The accommodation at Dumfries House is also aimed at the luxury market, while also offering access to the grounds, which are discussed in Section 6.4. Overall, the effect on accommodation providers near Cumnock is assessed as Negligible. In addition, the LVIA found that visibility from Cumnock and Dumfries House are expected to be limited.
Accommodation in or near Stair is advertised either based on the luxury and secluded nature of the accommodation, or the proximity to activities such as fishing, which the proposed development would not affect. Therefore, the effect has been assessed as Negligible.
The small number of accommodation providers in Mauchline advertise their connections to Robert Burns and settlements on west coast. As neither of these factors would be affected by the proposed development, the effect is assessed as Negligible.
The accommodation in the village of Coylton is also advertised based on their proximity to the coast and particularly Ayr, which would not be affected. Therefore, the effect is assessed as Negligible.
The features of accommodation in and around Kirkmichael and Straiton include the proximity to attractions such as golf courses and fishing, and to the coast. Other features include the seclusion and beauty of the landscape, which would not be affected by the proposed development. Therefore, the effect was assessed as Negligible.
The remaining accommodation facilities are both farmhouses that advertise their peaceful settings, hospitality and proximity to nearby towns. These features are not expected to be affected, and therefore the effect is assessed as Negligible.
8.5 Summary of Tourism Assessment
An analysis of visitor attractions, recreational routes and visitor accommodation suggests that there is likely to be a very limited and largely negligible effect on the local tourism economy.
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BiGGAR Economics, Pentlands Science Park, Bush Loan Penicuik, Midlothian, Scotland EH26 0PZ [email protected]
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