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Automotive Industry Outlook: Staying Ahead of the Curve in a Rapidly Changing Landscape March 2021

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Automotive Industry Outlook: Staying Ahead of the Curve in a Rapidly Changing Landscape March 2021 Automotive Industry Outlook: Staying Ahead of the Curve in a Rapidly Changing Landscape March 2021 Mike Wall Executive Director, Automotive Analysis +1 248 728 8400 Direct +1 616 446 6885 Mobile [email protected] © 2021 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 2 A World Leader in Critical Information, Analytics and Solutions Addressing Strategic Challenges with Interconnected Capabilities Energy Financial Agribusiness Services 50,000+ 80% Climate & Economics & customers in over of the Fortune Sustainability Country Risk 140 countries Global 500 Engineering & Life Sciences Product Design 94/100 $4B annual revenue largest US corporates Telecoms & NYSE: INFO Chemical Technology Maritime & Automotive Trade © 2021 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 3 World Economic Growth Global Growth Improved in February; World Real GDP is Projected to Increase 5.1% in 2021 10.0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-2028 World Average 8.0 2021 = +5.1% 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 (in percent) -4.0 -6.0 Annual GrowthAnnual GDP Real -8.0 -10.0 World United Japan Eurozone Brazil Russia India China States (mainland) Source: IHS Markit Data Insight © 2021 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 4 Introduction to Automotive Semiconductor: From Silicon to Cars Car Silicon Ingots and Packaged and Electronics Control Units* • 1,000 – 1,400 Processed wafers chips / car Raw silicon wafers tested chips (ECU) • $427 chip value / car in 2020 Manufacturing cycle time: Months Days Hours Semiconductor Suppliers NXP, Infineon, Renesas, Texas Instruments, Material suppliers: STMicroelectronics, ON Semi, Micron, Samsung... Tier 1: OEMs: Shin-Etsu, Siltronics, Bosch, Continental, Aptiv, Valeo, VW, Toyota, Toyota, Soitec Harman, BorgWarner, Denso… GM, RNM… Foundries (front end): Packaging & Test TSMC, Samsung, (back-end) * Picture from IHS Markit Teardown of GlobalFoundries, UMC, Amkor, ASE, UTAC Harman – Mercedes TTG9 Head-Unit Tower, DB Hitek, SMIC © 2021 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Service providers 5 Global Light Vehicle Sales COVID-19 Impacts the Near-Term Outlook; Aftermath Resets Expectations Longer-Term 100 100 12.0% 94 95 92 94 8.0% 90 88 90 Annual Annual growth(%) 85 Average growth 3.6% 84 4.0% 80 77 0.0% 75 -4.0% 70 65 -8.0% 60 -12.0% 55 Annual Annual (millions) light salesvehicle 50 -16.0% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Source: IHS Markit Light Vehicle Sales Forecasts MaaS: Mobility as a Service © 2021 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 6 Global Light Vehicle Production Overview First Quarter 2021 Outlook Dominated by Semiconductor Shortages; Lost Volume Increases Over Prior Outlook as Severe Weather Effects and Japanese Earthquake Compound Challenges Global Production ▲ South Asia raised largely on improved Indian outlook; 100 94.2 93.7 25% s 91.7 89.0 89.6 possibly reflecting links to Japanese and South Korea on i l 90 supply chains – strong local sales are supportive l 84.1 20% ▲ MEA is boosted again on stronger Iranian outlook Mi 80 74.6 15% ▲ Current disruption does nothing to alleviate upside pressure from inventory requirements in H2 70 13% 10% ▼ March update takes 500,000 units from 2021 outlook as 60 disruption intensifies in Europe, China, Americas and 5% Japan/Korea 50 7% ▼ Challenges beyond semiconductors, plastics shortages an 2% 0% 40 2% emerging short-term factor, following bad sever weather impacts in North America -1% -5% 30 ▼ Many regions experiencing secondary waves of COVID- -6% 19 infections and disruptive effects could emerge quickly, 20 -10% lockdown measures tightening again in many markets, ▼ Downside risk remains in the near-term given volatility of 10 -15% the situation and potential for shortages to extend deeper into the second quarter. Expect OEMs will continue to 0 -16% -20% prioritize production of higher margin vehicles at the 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 expense of less important offerings Global Production Year over Year Change Source: IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 7 Global Light Vehicle Production Semiconductor and Other Supply Chain Pressures Present Near-Term Production Challenges Global Light Vehicle Production: 1Q 2021 – Mar 2021 vs. Dec 2020 • Globally nearly 1.2M units estimated to be lost from 1Q due to semiconductor shortages 0 • Biggest disruptions: • Mainland China: 350,000 units -100 • Europe: 282,000 units • North America: 264,000 units Thousands -200 • Semiconductor shortages are not the only influence on Q1 developments: -300 • Upside in China from Lunar New Year • North America and Europe compounded by -400 weather and ongoing public health and lockdown measures -500 • Port congestion/disruptions impacting product flow • Extent of disruption and long lead for -600 semiconductors pointing to more protracted North Europe Mainland Japan South South vehicle production constraints America China America Korea • Recovery opportunities dissipating Net change Semiconductor impact • Risk in North America for trucks and utility Source: IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit vehicles amid low inventory levels © 2021 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 8 Mainland China Production Overview Despite Strong Q1, Full-year Outlook is Reduced on Payback Particularly with Light Commercial Vehicles and Semiconductor Concerns Yearly Production Monthly Production Evolution 28.23 3,000 500% 30 26.98 8.0% 407% s 26.61 26.01 ds 24.42 24.66 6.0% on an 2,500 400% i 23.35 l l 25 5.5% 4.0% us Mi 5.6% 4.7% 2,000 300% 20 2.0% ho 3.7% T 0.0% 1,500 200% 15 -2.0% 58% 1,000 100% 10 -4.0% 31% 4% -4.0% -4.4% -6.0% 500 0% 5 -7%-10% - -5% -5% -9%-4% -8.0% -1% 0 -100% 0 -8.2% -10.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YoY Evolution 2020 2021 Estimates Mainland China Production Year over Year Change 2021 Forecast 2022 Forecast ▲ The economic development has been upgraded again by increasing GDP ▼ The semiconductor shortage brings risks of plant shutdowns could further growth prediction to 7.8% in 2021. deteriorate in Q2 2021. The impact started to expand from JV brands to ▲ Strong demand in Q1 2021 ahead of Lunar New Year holiday. Chinese domestic brands. ▲ Additional incentives have been released during National Congresses in ▼ The polyamide (PA66) shortage owing to the snowstorm in US, would be March, further motivating the output and sales in following months. another interruption in H1 2021. ▲ Commercial vehicle sector responds to infrastructure investment ▼ Some fluctuations in the stock market could bring uncertainties to potential demand. © 2021 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Source: IHS Markit 9 Europe* (excluding CIS) Production Overview Lockdowns Still Hammering Demand, Semiconductor Shortage Limiting Inventory Rebuild Yearly Production Monthly Production Evolution 25 20.0% s 14.5% 2022% 15.0% 2,000 2500% on 20.08 i l 19.20 ds l 18.23 18.53 18.55 20 17.00 10.0% 2000% an Mi 14.85 1,500 5.0% us 15 7.3% 1500% 0.0% ho 1.7% T 1,000 1000% 0.1% -5.0% 26% 10 -2.5% -4.3% -10.0% 42% 108% 500% 500 3% -2% 4% 5 -15.0% 0% -20.0% -18%-18% -2% -1%-6% -22.7% 0 -500% 0 -25.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YoY Evolution 2020 2021 Estimates EU (excluding CIS) Year over Year Change 2021 Forecast 2022 Forecast ▲ CY 2022 production revised up, catching-up for 2021 production losses ▼ 1H 2021 production revised down over 140,000 units, with marginal ▲ Inventories remain at very low level as we enter Q2 2021. recovery through 2H 2021. ▲ Government incentives support LEV sales in Western Europe ▼ Semiconductor shortage impacting virtually all operations while ▲ Ongoing demand recovery in Turkey and in key export markets lockdown measures still impact vehicle retail in parts of Europe ▼ Other supply shortages potentially disrupting production (plastics, steel) ▼ CAFE compliance remains an important challenge with risks of OEM forcing overall volume reductions Note: *Europe = EU27 + UK, Turkey and Serbia. Not including Commonwealth of Independent States Source: IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 10 US: Light Vehicle Sales Outlook Shifting from a COVID Contraction to a Post-COVID Recovery US Light Vehicle Sales Economic issues • US consumer outlook to improve, though 20.0 20% recovery skewed 18.0 15% • Risk for additional COVID-19 related 16.0 10% Millions lockdowns diminishing 14.0 5% • Longer term pressure on OEM profitability 12.0 0% • Opportunities to find right customer based 10.0 -5% on vehicle age and scrappage 8.0 -10% • Launches to accelerate, mix increasingly 6.0 attractive 4.0 -15% • Vehicle development costs rising 2.0 -20% • Regulatory compliance 0.0 -25% • Consumer contenting 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 • Market attractive from consumer %∆ Y/Y Base (50%) Optimistic (25%) Pessimistic (25%) perspective, risk shifting to lenders • Low interest rate environment Source: IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 11 Semiconductor Shortages Short-Term Issue with Lasting Implications North America Light Vehicle Production: 2021 Impact and issues: 1.8 200 • Short lead time notice 2H: +349K • Who and when remains a question 150 1.6 • Downtime 100 • Reduced work schedules Millions 1.4 50 • Cancelled overtime 1.2 Thousands 0 • Production rationalization efforts 1.0 -50 • First-half 2021: 0.8 • Semiconductor shortage impact -400K -100 0.6 • End of legacy models -150 • Slower ramp-ups 15.8M 0.4 -200 • Annual comparisons masks issue 1H: -754K 0.2 -250 • Second-half 2021: 0.0 -300 • Volume recovery beginning to look grim bolstering outlook for 2022 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec • Summer shutdowns are a wild card Y/Y ∆ Mar-21 Dec-20 Source: IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit.
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