RISK ENGINEERING, Ltd. Reliability – Safety - Management Engineering Services - Software Development
EXTERNAL HAZARDS AT KOZLODUY AND BELENE NPP SITES
Marin Kostov, Georgy Varbanov, Anton Andonov
10, Vihren str., 1618 Sofia, Pavlovo, Bulgaria, phone +359 2 8089 501, fax +359 2 9507 751 111 RISK ENGINEERING, Ltd. EXTERNAL HAZARDS AT KOZLODUY Reliability – Safety - Management Engineering Services - Software Development AND BELENE NPP SITES
Background
• Fukushima – accident, error or logical result? • Stress test – Why it’s needed? • The consequences of Fukushima?
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KASHIWAZAKI KARIWA NPP , M=6.6 2007
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KASHIWAZAKI KARIWA NPP
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FUKUSHIMA DISASTER
Sorce: WANO, March 14, 2011
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NATURAL HAZARDS AFFECTING THE PLANT:
BEYOND DESIGN BASE EARTHQUAKE FOLLOWING BY BEYOND DESIGN BASE TZUNAMI RESULTED IN: AUTOMATIC SEISMIC SCRAM OF THE REACTORS
TOTAL BLACK OUT OF THE STATION TOTAL LOSS OF THE ULTIMATE HEAT SINK HYDROGEN BLAST IN THREE OF REACTOR BUILDINGS TOTAL OR PARTIAL CORE DAMEGE IN THREE OF REACTORS PARTIAL FUEL DAMAGE IN ONE SPENT FUEL POOL UNCONTROLED RELEASE OF RADIOACTIVITY
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MAIN REASONS UNDERESTIMATION OF THE DESIGN BASE ACCOSIATED WITH THE NATURAL HAZARDS INABILITY OF THE PLANT DESIGN TO MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF THE BEYOND DESIGN BASE NATURAL HAZARDS WEAK PREPEREDNESS TO CONTROL CRITICAL SITUATIONS STRESS TESTS EVALUATION OF THE PLANT RESPONSE TO BEYOND DESIGN BASE NATURAL HAZARDS AND COMBINATION BETWEEN THEM EVALUATION OF THE PLANT RESPONSE IN CONDITIONS OF TOTAL BLACK OUT EVALUATION OF THE PLANT RESPONSE IN CONDITIONS OF TOTAL ULTIMATE HEAT SINK COMBINATION BETWEEN LOOP AND UHS
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7.6-8.0 7.1-7.5 6.6-7.0 6.1-6.5 5.6-6.0 5.1-5.5 4.6-5.0 4.1-4.5
4.1-4.5 44 4.6-5.0
4.1-4.5 4.1-4.5 43 4.1-4.5 4.6-5.0
4.6-5.0 4.6-5.0 4.1-4.5 4.1-4.5
42
4.6-5.0 4.6-5.0
41 22 24 26 28
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SEISMIC DESIGN BASE FOR KOZLODUY AND BELENE NPP SITES
KNPP BNPP Return period -10000 years Return period -10000 years PGA h = 0.2 g PGA h = 0.24 g PGA h.l = 0.16 g PGA v = 0.155 g PGA v = 0.1 g PGA v.l = 0.13 g
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SEISMIC DESIGN BASE FOR KNPP AND BNPP
THE SEISMIC DESIGN BASES FOR BOTH SITES ARE SIMILAR THE SEISMIC HAZARD FOR BOTH SITES IS DOMINATED BY VRANCEA SOURCE THE SHAPES OF THE DBE RESPONSE SPECTRA ARE SIMILAR DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD CONTRIBUTION OF VRANCEA SOURCE THE DBE PGA FOR BNPP SITE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO THE NEAREST LOCATION TO VRANCEA AND GORNA ORIAHOVITZA SOURCES
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DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT
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DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT – MAX. SCENARIA
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FLOODING OF THE KNPP AND BNPP SITES Floods caused by natural high water level Floods caused by failure of water control structures Floods due to failure of water control structures combined with extreme precipitation and wind waves
KNPP BNPP SITE ELEVATION 35 m 28.5 m RIVER LEVEL PROB. 0.01% 32.23 m 26.38 m LEVEL OF PROTECTIVE DIKES 31-32 m 25-26 m Basic water discharge (m 3/s) 10000 15000 10000 15000 FAILURE OF IRON GATE1 AND IRON GATE2, W/O NIKOPOL-TURNU MAGURELE 31.78 32.14 24.94 25.79 FAILURE OF IRON GATE1 AND IRON GATE 2, AND NUKOPOL-TURNUMAGURELE 34.56 34.26 26.88 26.67 FAILURE OF IRON GATE1 AND IRON GATE 2, AND NUK.-T.M + SILISTRA-KALARASH 34.56 34.26 27.31 26.83 EXTREME RAINS - PROBABILITY 0.01 - (expert judgment) 0.2 0.2 WIND WAVES (expert judgment) 0.3 0.3
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FLOODING SCENARIA FOR THE KNPP SITE
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FLOODING SCENARIA FOR THE BNPP SITE
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FLOODIND SCENARIOS
KNPP BNPP Flooding of the site (if HPC N – TM is constructed Flooding of the site ? – the safety margin is 0.6 1. without reconstruction of the dikes) m Partial flooding of the surroundings and isolation Total flooding of the surroundings and 2. of the site isolation of the site Increase of the underground water level with res- pective risks for the safety related underground The underground safety related structures are 3. structures and penetrations protected against flooding by the design 4. Damages in the national electric transmittal grid ? no 5. Loss of some safety related structures? no Clogging of the site surface water sewage system 6. during the extreme rains? 7 Partial flooding of Kozloduy (town) Flooding of Belene (town)
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EVALUATION OF EXTERNAL HUMAN INDUCED EVENTS • Chemical explosions due to industrial accidents
• Explosion during the transportation of explosive materials
• Release of toxic and/or explosive gases
• Release of radioactive gases
• Forest or turf fire
10, Vihren str., 1618 Sofia, Pavlovo, Bulgaria, phone +359 2 8089 501, fax +359 2 9507 751 11181888 RISK ENGINEERING, Ltd. SITE EVALUATION FOR NUCLEAR Reliability – Safety - Management Engineering Services - Software Development POWER PLANTS
EVALUATION OF EXTERNAL HUMAN INDUCES EVENTS External blasts
KNPP BNPP The risk from industrial The risk from industrial and transport induced and transport induced explosions is negligible. explosions is negligible. The Design Basis is The Design Basis is conservatively assumed conservatively assumed P=30kN/m2, t=1s P=30kN/m2, t=1s
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EVALUATION OF EXTERNAL HUMAN INDUCES EVENTS Aircraft crash analysis – Design considerations for KNPP and BNPP
KNPP BNPP Structural system: Structural system: Single Post-tensioned RC External RC Shell Containment Internal Post-tensioned RC Containment Design loading: Mass =10t Design Loading: Velocity=750km/h (208m/s) Mass=20t Velocity=215m/s Beyond Design Loading: Not considered Beyond Design Loading: Boeing 747 with various velocities
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Air traffic • Group A – large airplanes with weight more than 330t (A380, A340, B747 and B777);
• Group B – intermediate size airplanes with weight between 150t and 330t (A300, A330, A350, B767, B707);
• Group C – small airplanes with weight less than 150t (A321, B737)
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• Airplanes taking off from and • Airplanes in Bulgarian sky – flying landing on Bulgarian airports: over, taking off and landing: – Group A: 1% – Group A: 3,8% – Group B: 1% – Group B: 15,1% – Group C: 98% – Group C: 81,1%
• Airplanes flying over in 70km zone: – Group A: 4,6% – Group B: 17,5% – Group C: 77,9%
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EVALUATION OF EXTERNAL HUMAN INDUCES EVENTS Aircraft crash analysis – 3D FE model
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EVALUATION OF EXTERNAL HUMAN INDUCES EVENTS Aircraft crash analysis – Definition of the load time functions
Riera’s method Finite Element Method
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EVALUATION OF EXTERNAL HUMAN INDUCES EVENTS Aircraft crash analysis – Definition of the load time functions
Influence of the impact velocity Influence of the airplane mass
Impact Load Time Functions - Velocity Dependence Impact Load Time Functions for Large Passenger Airp lane at V=155m/s - Mass Dependence Force Force Force Force
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Time Time LPA_100m/s" LPA_110m/s" LPA_120m/s" LPA_40%_MFC LPA_70%_MFC LPA_85%_MFC LPA_130m/s" LPA_140m/s" LPA_150m/s LPA_100%_MFC Phantom_RF4_215m/s LPA_160m/s Phantom RF-4_215m/s
10, Vihren str., 1618 Sofia, Pavlovo, Bulgaria, phone +359 2 8089 501, fax +359 2 9507 751 22252555 RISK ENGINEERING, Ltd. SITE EVALUATIONReliability – Safety - Management FOR NUCLEAR Engineering Services - Software Development POWER PLANTS EVALUATION OF EXTERNAL HUMAN INDUCES EVENTS Aircraft crash analysis – direct numerical simulation of airplane crash into Belene NPP
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EVALUATION OF EXTERNAL HUMAN INDUCES EVENTS Aircraft crash analysis – 3D FE model
10, Vihren str., 1618 Sofia, Pavlovo, Bulgaria, phone +359 2 8089 501, fax +359 2 9507 751 20 May 2014 22272777 RISK ENGINEERING, Ltd. Reliability – Safety - Management Engineering Services - Software Development
Conclusions
1. KNPP and BNPP have adequate seismic design base that corresponds to the current standards 2. There is available seismic margin and cliff-edge effects are not probable 3. The external flooding hazard is properly assessed and there is available design margin 4. Anthropogenic hazards are properly assessed and there is available margin. The BNPP is designed also for the largest available aircraft impact (malevolent) 5. The tornado hazard in Bulgaria is negligible
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Conclusions
6. The extreme combination of EQ, flooding, extreme wind, extreme cold and hot weather have to be studied 7. The risk of failure of all surrounding infrastructure due to earthquake, flooding or anthropogenic actions have to be studied 8. The preparedness for extreme hazards have to be improved and trained 9. The extreme hazard mitigation measures have to be constant and continuous effort .
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