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Predicting Political Development After United States Military Assistance: Evidence from Case Study Analysis

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Predicting Political Development After United States Military Assistance: Evidence from Case Study Analysis The University of Southern Mississippi The Aquila Digital Community Dissertations Summer 2020 Predicting Political Development after United States Military Assistance: Evidence from Case Study Analysis Susan Rae Alaniz Follow this and additional works at: https://aquila.usm.edu/dissertations Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Alaniz, Susan Rae, "Predicting Political Development after United States Military Assistance: Evidence from Case Study Analysis" (2020). Dissertations. 1824. https://aquila.usm.edu/dissertations/1824 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by The Aquila Digital Community. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations by an authorized administrator of The Aquila Digital Community. For more information, please contact [email protected]. PREDICTING POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT AFTER UNITED STATES MILITARY ASSISTANCE: EVIDENCE FROM CASE STUDY ANALYSIS by Susan Rae Alaniz A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate School, the College of Arts and Sciences and the School of Social Science and Global Studies at The University of Southern Mississippi in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Approved by: Dr. Robert J. Pauly, Jr., Committee Chair Dr. Joseph J. St Marie Dr. Tom Lansford Dr. Edward Sayre August 2020 COPYRIGHT BY Susan Rae Alaniz 2020 Published by the Graduate School ABSTRACT During the administration of former President Barack Obama, United States foreign policy increased its focus on international development instability that threatened U.S. national security. In 2010, President Obama issued Presidential Policy Directive 6, which declared that international development is a vital U.S. national interest. This was a watershed moment for not just how the United States views its national interests, but in which resources should be dedicated to protect them. In 2017, the U.S. Department of Defense has security assistance relationships with 155 countries. These countries represent a wide range of international development challenges. This research examines the recipient state context where United States military resources were contributed in the interest of reducing political development fragility. Ten case studies have been selected for qualitative comparative analysis to determine the context setting conditions under which political development fragility is reduced after receiving U.S. military assistance. This study finds reduction to political fragility occurs when the recipient state exhibits specific characteristics prior to the dedication of United States military resources. The findings suggest that the use of international development assessment tools for legitimacy and effectiveness of recipient state security sector apparatus structures prior to donation of military assistance will increase potential success outcomes. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank Dr. Bob Pauly for your wisdom, patience and sound advice in stewarding me through this process. iii DEDICATION I dedicate this monumental effort to my always supportive husband Arcadio ‘Skinny’ Alaniz, my wonderful parents, Doug and Lucille Kesler, and my brilliant daughter Carolyn Alaniz. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................. iii DEDICATION ................................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ xv LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS .......................................................................................... xvii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................ xviii CHAPTER I – INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 21 1.1 Statement of Purpose ............................................................................................ 23 1.2 Problem Statement................................................................................................ 24 1.3 Specification of Research Questions.................................................................... 25 1.4 Specification of Hypotheses .................................................................................. 25 1.5 Background and Context ..................................................................................... 25 1.6 Research Design and Organizational Structure................................................. 28 CHAPTER II -LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................... 30 2.1 Neoclassical Realism, U.S. Foreign Policy, and International Development ... 32 2.2 Political Development and Weak States ............................................................. 37 2.3 History of Military Assistance ............................................................................. 45 2.4 U.S. Military Assistance, Development, and Social Conflict............................. 54 2.5 Contribution .......................................................................................................... 62 v CHAPTER III - METHODOLOGY ................................................................................. 64 3.1 Selected Theories, Key Definitions and Frameworks for Analysis .................. 64 3.2 Qualitative Comparative Analysis....................................................................... 67 3.2.1 Selection of Case Studies ............................................................................... 67 3.2.2 Qualitative Analysis Variables...................................................................... 73 3.2.2.1 Dependent Variable ................................................................................ 73 3.2.2.2 Independent Conditional Variables ...................................................... 73 3.2.2.2.1 U.S. National Interest and Relationship between the U.S. and the Recipient State of U.S. Military Assistance .................................................. 73 3.2.2.2.2 Recipient State Political Order ....................................................... 75 3.2.2.2.3 Legitimacy of Recipient State Security Structures ....................... 76 3.2.2.2.4 Character of Recipient State Political Dissent .............................. 77 3.2.2.2.5 Effectiveness of the State Security Sector Apparatus ................... 77 3.2.2.2.6 Specific Military Assistance Provided ............................................ 79 3.2.2.2.7 Recipient State Foreign Policy Outcome ....................................... 80 CHAPTER IV – UNITED STATES EUROPEAN COMMAND AND EUROPE .......... 83 4.1 Romania ................................................................................................................. 87 4.1.1 Orientation...................................................................................................... 87 4.1.2 U.S. National Interest and Relationship with Romania ............................. 88 4.1.3 Political Order ................................................................................................ 92 vi 4.1.4 Legitimacy of the Security Sector Apparatus ............................................. 98 4.1.5 Character of the Political Dissent ................................................................. 99 4.1.6 Effectiveness of the Security Sector Apparatus ........................................ 102 4.1.7 Specific U.S. Military Assistance ................................................................ 104 4.1.8 Romania Foreign Policy .............................................................................. 108 4.1.9 Conclusion .................................................................................................... 109 4.2 Ukraine................................................................................................................. 113 4.2.1 Orientation.................................................................................................... 113 4.2.2 U.S. National Interest and Relationship with Ukraine ............................. 114 4.2.3 Political Order .............................................................................................. 117 4.2.4 Legitimacy of the Security Sector Apparatus ........................................... 124 4.2.5 Nature of Political Dissent ........................................................................... 126 4.2.6 Effectiveness of the Security Sector Apparatus ........................................ 132 4.2.7 Specific U.S. Military Assistance Provided................................................ 134 4.2.8 Ukraine Foreign Policy ................................................................................ 140 4.2.9 Conclusion .................................................................................................... 142 4.3 Cross Case Comparison ..................................................................................... 144 CHAPTER V – UNITED STATES SOUTHERN COMMAND AND LATIN AMERICA ......................................................................................................................................... 149 5.1 Colombia .............................................................................................................
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