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THE INSTITUTE OF FUEL

AUSTRALIAN MEMBERSHIP

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CONFERENCE ON I i I •it THE ASSESSMENT OF OUR FUEL AND ENERGY § RESOURCES AND REQUIREMENTS

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HELD AT THE PARK ROYAL MOTOR INN, BRISBANE, OLD.

4th-6th NOVEMBER, 1970

COLLECTED PREPRINTS OF PAPERS PRESENTED THE ASSESSMENT OF OUR FUEL AND ENERGY RESOURCES AND REQUIREMENTS

CONFERENCE HELD AT THE PARK ROYAL MOTOR INN

BRISBANE, QUEENSLAND

4th-6th NOVEMBER, 1970

Collected Preprints of Papers Presented

THE INSTITUTE OF FUEL AUSTRALIAN MEMBERSHIP

Opinions expressed in these papers are those of the authors individually, and

should not be taken as those of The Institute as a corporate body* FOREWORD

The 1970 Conference of the Australian Membership of the Institute is the seventh in a series which began in 195&. Each conference has marked a fresh phase in Institute development, which members will recall from the list of conferences included in this volume.

The present Conference will be remembered as the first to be held in Queensland and the first to be organized by the Brisbane Group. The Group is much to be congratulated on having persuaded the Hon. R.E. Camm, Queensland Minister for Mines and Main Roads, to open the Conference.

Another feature is the introduction, for the first time in the series, of an international guest lecturer — Mr. Yoshiharu Iimura, Director and General Manager., Nippon Steel Corporation. He will discuss the significance of fuels to Australia and Japan.

An appraisal of the present position of nuclear energy in this country will be contributed by the Chairman of the Australian Atomic Energy Commission, Sir Philip Baxter,

The 1970 CR. Kent Lecturer and Medallist is the well-known former National Chariman of the Australian Membership, Mr. W.W. Pettingell, F.Inst.F., who some years ago steered the National Committee in its first steps towards recognition of the need for "home grown" development within the framework of an international Institute.

A major address by the First Assistant Secretary, Department of National Development, Mr. F.L. McCay, O.B.E., will be a highlight of the proceedings at the Conference Dinner.

After the Conference all delegates will receive a supplementary volume containing the addresses by Mr. Camm, Mr* limura, Mr* Pettingell, and Mr* McCayj this will form, with the present volume of preprints, a unique work of reference and of material for use by fuel technologists and engineers throughout the Australian Continent.

Through its initiative in calling this Conference The Institute is, I believe, contributing significantly to the further development of fuels in Australia* Such development calls for skilful organization and a high standard of professional expertise. Fuels underpin all civilized life today, but for Australians they hold special significance because our future as a nation depends upon the degree to which we are successful in discovering new sources of fuel and energy while at the same time using to the best advantage all known reserves.

T.G. Callcott.

Chairman, Australian Membership,

The Institute of Fuel# ORGANIZING COMMITTEE FOR 197Q CONFERENCE

A.G. Reeve (Chairman)

K.T. Greenham, M. Inst. F, (Hon. Secretary)

G.W. Richardson

F.W. Hazell

V.E. Baker

A.J. Willis, A. M. Inst. F.

T.G. Calicott, F. Inst. F.

W.T. Cooper, F. Inst. F. (Hon. Editor)

J.F. Cudmore, M. Inst. F.

LIST OF CHAIRMEN OF THE AUSTRALIAN MEMBERSHIP,

THE INSTITUTE OF FUEL, FROM ITS FORMATION IN 1952

1952 C.R. Kent 1953 C.R. Kent 1954 C.R. Kent 1955 H.R. Brown 1956 H.R. Brown 1957 I. McCbll Stewart 1958 F.H. Roberts 1959 F.H. Roberts 1960 C.R.'Kent 1961 W.W. Pettingell 1962 W.W. Pettingell 1963 N.Y„ Kirov 1964 F.H. Roberts 1965 N.Y. Kirov 1966 W.T. Cooper 1967 W.T. Cooper 1968 H.R. Goode 1969 H.R. Goode 1970 T.G. Callcott LIST OF CONFERENCES OF THE AUSTRALIAN MEMBERSHIP.

THE INSTITUTE OF FUEL

1956 Sydney. "Fuel and Power - Vital Elements in the Development of Australia." Opened by the Hon. W.H. Spooner, Federal Minister for National Development.

1959 Newcastle. "Australian Fuels and Their Utilization." Opened by F.H. Roberts, Chairman, Australian Membership, The Institute of Fuel.

1961 Sydney. "Oil Fuels and Their Utilization." Opened by Professor J.P. Baxter, Vice-Chancellor, University of New South Wales.

1964. Melbourne. "The Inorganic Constituents of Fuels." Opened by the Hon. G.O. Reid, Minister for,Electrical Undertakings, Victoria.

1966 Newcastle. "1966 Fuel Conference." Opened by W.T. Cooper, Chairman, Australian Membership, The Institute of Fuel. First C.R. Kent Lecturer and Medallist: Professor E.A. Rudd.

1968 Canberra. "Combustion and Combustion Equipment." Opened, by the Hon. David Fairbaim, Federal Minister for National Development. Second C.R. Kent Lecturer and Medallist: Dr. W.T. McFayden.

Scheduled:

1970 Brisbane. "The Assessment of our Fuel and Energy Resources and Requirements." To be opened by the Hon. R.E. Camm, Queensland Minister for Minas and Main Roads. Third C.R. Kent Lecturer and Medallist: W.W. Pettingell, C.B.E. LIST OF PAPERS

First Technical Session

Paper 1. Nuclear Energy in Australia Dr. R.K. Warner and Sir Philip Baxter (Australian Atomic Energy Commission)

Paper 2. An Energy Policy for Queensland A.W. Norrie (Department of Mines, Queensland)

Paper 3» Australian Primary Energy Requirements, with Special Reference to the Industrial Sector C.F. Gartland, M. Inst. F. (Department of National Development, Melbourne)

Second Technical Session

Paper U» Review of New South Wales Coals, Their Occurrence, Quality, and Uses G.E. Edwards and J.B. Robinson (Joint Coal Board)

Paper 5» The Coal Resources of Queensland W.L. Hawthorne (Geological Survey of Queensland)

Paper o. Reserves, Resources, and Statistics of Liquid and Gaseous Fuels in Australia M.C. Konecki, K. Blair, and J.M. Henry (Bureau of Mineral Resources, Geology and Geophysics, Canberra)

Paper 7. Energy Resources and Requirements in Western Australia L.J. Brennan, A. M. Inst. F. (Government Chemical Laboratories, Perth, Western Australia)

Third Technical Session

Paper 8. Study of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Strategies for Australia' J.E. Hayes, J.B. Herbert, and R.A. Slizys (State Electricity Commission of Victoria)

Paper 9. Fuels for Electricity Generation in Australia D.G. Evans, M. Inst. F. (Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Melbourne)

Paper 10. Oil and Gas Development in Bass Strait and Some, •Implications for the Australian Oil Industry T.H. Ramsay (Oil and Gas Division, The Broken Hill Proprietary Co. Ltd.).--"'• Fourth Technical Session

Paper 11• Australian Crude Oils -' Their Effect on Industrial Fuel Oils H.W. Baddams (The Shell Company of Australia Limited, Melbourne)

Paper 12. Natural Gas Development and Experience A.J. Willis, A. M. Inst. F. (Allgas Energy Ltd., Brisbane)

Paper 13. The. Effect of Bass Strait Crude Oil on Australian • Refinery Technology A.C. Nommensen (Ampol Petroleum Limited, Sydney)

Fifth Technical Session

Paper 14. Paralic.Coal Seam Formation Dr. Claus F.K..Diessel (Department of Geology, The University of Newcastle, New South Wales)

Paper 15. Research and Developments in Coal Preparation Dr. R.G. Burdon, M. Inst. F. (School of Mining Engineering, The University of New S.outh Wales), and A. Le Page (Australian Coal Industry Research Laboratories Limited)

Paper 16. Coking Australian Coals T.G. Calicott and N.A. Brown (Central Research Laboratories, B.H.P. Ltd., Shortland, N.S.W.)

Paper 17. General Review of Coal Exploration Possibilities in Western Australia Hector J. Ward and Robert Pickering (Geotechnics (Aust.) Pty. Ltd^ and P.S. Chaturvedi' (Lucknow University)

Sixth Technical Session

Paper 18. Comparative Costs of Transport of Coal by Rail, Road and Sea J.B. Thomson (Coal and Allied (Sales) Pty. Ltd., Newcastle, N.S.W.),

Paper 19. The Marine Transportation of Liquid Hydrocarbons J.F. Crane (The Shell Company of Australia Limited, Melbourne)

Paper 20. Pipelines for Natural Gas C.R., Saunders - (Associated Pipelines Limited, Brisbane) 1-1

PAPER 1

NUCLEAR ENERGY IN AUSTRALIA

By: R. K. WARNER* and J. P. BAXTER

SUMMARY

Reactor types and major overseas programmes for nuclear power are re­ viewed, and an outline is given of future developments. At present in the world the capacity of nuclear power stations in operation, under construction, or committed, totals some 129,500 MW(e). By 1980 the installed nuclear generating capacity outside the Soviet area should be 250,000 - 300,000 MW(e), and in 1990 the U.S.A. alone is expected to have 500,000 MW(e) of nuclear plant in operation. Nuclear power has been established as a technically and economically viable industry, which will not add,to atmospheric pollution.

The proposed nuclear power station at Jervis Bay heralds the beginning of Australia's nuclear power industry, which is destined to play a major role in the development of this country. By 1985 nuclear power stations should be competitive with conventional stations in all States of the Commonwealth, except possibly Tasmania, and the installed nuclear generating capacity is expected to be 4,000 MW(e). By the turn of the century Australia could have 36,000 MW(e) of nuclear power in operation, representing about one-third of the country's total installed generating capacity.

The introduction of nuclear power into Australia will give rise to new ancillary industries, such as fuel fabrication and reprocessing. Nuclear energy has made an important contribution in the field of radioisotopes and radiation applications. In the future it is expected to.lead to.new developments in Australia in saline water conversion, civil and mining engineering uses of nuclear explosives, and possibly in "nuclear energy centres" for agro-industrial complexes. These applications are surveyed briefly.

* Chief, Nuclear Technology-Division, Australian Atomic, Energy Commission. Chairman, Australian Atomic Energy Commission. 1-2

1. INTRODUCTION

The generation of electricity from nuclear energy is now a well-established, technically and economically viable industry. Great progress has been made since the demonstration of the uranium fission reaction in 194-2 at Chicago, and since the first commercial nuclear power station was commissioned in 1956 in Great Britain. At present throughout the world there are 67 nuclear power stations in operation, with a total of 91 nuclear reactors and an aggregate output of 15,6.56 megawatts of electricity (MW(e)). If stations under construction or definitely committed are included, these figures rise to 197 nuclear power stations with 261 reactors and a total output of 129,411 MW(e).

The widespread adoption of nuclear power has been achieved by engineering and technical improvements in design and operation, by the adoption of larger units, and by standardization and consequent replication of major plant items. The specific capital cost ($/kW output) of nuclear stations was falling signi­ ficantly until recently when inflationary pressures in the U.S.A. altered this trend. (Similarly, increases have occurred in the specific capital cost of conventional power plant). Nevertheless, nuclear power has become competitive in many places with conventional power. As a consequence, orders are being placed for nuclear stations even in relatively low-fuel-cost areas of the world. By 1980, the installed nuclear generating capacity outside the Soviet area is expected to be 250,000 - 300,000 MW(e). Recently, Dr. Seaborg, Chairman of the United Spates Atomic Energy Commission, has. estimated nuclear power capacity in that country alone, in 1990, at 500,000 MW(e). (By comparison, the total gener­ ating capacity in Australia is now about 15,000 (MW(e%).

1.1. Impact of Nuclear Power

Nuclear power is undoubtedly the most important peaceful use of atomic energy, and it is destined to have a profound effect on the industrial and economic growth of all nations.

The advantages of nuclear power may be summarized as follows:

(i) The specific capital cost of nuclear plants decreases more rapidly than that of conventional power plant with 'increasing unit size. This char­ acteristic is important since the world trend is' toward larger central station - power plants.

(ii) Nuclear power plants have a significant potential for improved operating economics. Nuclear fuel costs are expected to fall further as tech­ nology is improved, as a larger fuelling industry is realized, and as breeder reactors are developed.

(iii) The economics of nuclear power are in considerable degree independent of geographical location. This will be important for regions remote from fuel supplies. When engineered safeguards are further developed for nuclear plant, it will be possible to build future stations adjacent to large cities and in­ dustrial areas where the load occurs.

(iv) Nuclear power does not add to atmospheric pollution. Today this is a most important factor in many decisions to install nuclear stations.

(v) The advent of nuclear power has brought competition in other energy sources - coal, gas, oil, and hydro - and this benefits the consumer by keeping power costs down. 1-3 The advantages of nuclear power indicate that it has had, and will continue to have, a far-reaching effect on industrial and economic development in many nations. In those countries where nuclear power is already making a significant contribution to power demand the effect on local industry has been dramatic. Many new ancillary industries, such as fuel manufacture and fuel reprocessing, new metals technology, new developments in electronics, have been created or expanded. The strict engineering design, observance of fine tolerances, assurance of proper functioning of vital components, and "clean" conditions during building of nuclear reactors has led to "quality control" and "quality assurance" never before encountered in a large and complex engineering industry.

The above progress has not been achieved by chance. It has come about by careful research, development, and demonstration efforts. It has been a co-operative effort involving the industries and Governments of many nations. The projected nuclear power station at Jervis Bay will herald the beginning of the nuclear power industry in Australia, and this country will be joining other nations which are exploiting this beneficial source of energy. Before dealing with the prospects and impact of nuclear power in Australia, it is desirable to survey briefly the principal overseas developments.

2. REACTOR TYPES AND MAJOR OVERSEAS PROGRAMMES

2.1. Reactor Types •

Commercial power reactors operating at present fall mainly into two classes of systems, which are usually referred to as "first generation reactors". One is the natural uranium metal fuelled, graphite moderated, carbon dioxide cooled system. Although these reactors have proved very reliable in operation and their technology is established firmly, their generation costs are high, and it is unlikely that.further reactors of this type will be built. The second group of "first generation reactors" is those using uranium dioxide fuel which has been enriched in its U235 content and which are moderated and cooled with high purity, ordinary ?.ight water. The fuel is sintered uranium oxide pellets canned in zirconium alloy. Two methods of operation have been developed for this type of reactor. In one, the pressure is maintained high enough to prevent boiling in the reactor core, and external heat exchangers are required to generate the saturated steam supply for the turbo-alternator. This system is known as a "pressurized water reactor" (PWR), In the other, boiling is allowed to occur in the reactor core, and after separation of the steam-water mixture, the saturated steam passes direct to the turbo-alternator. Such a system is called a "boiling water reactor" (BWR). Both types' have operated satisfactorily and there is little to choose between them on either technical or economic grounds.

"First generation reactors" of the above types are all "thermal" reactors of the converter type, capable only of utilizing about 2% of the total theo­ retical energy that could be obtained from the uranium if it were completely consumed.

The "second generation reactors" which have been developed, and those which are being studied, have as their principal aim an. improvement in"gen­ eration costs. They are referred to as "advanced converter reactors", and whilst some offer the possibility of better utilization of the world's uranium ;;" resources they still fall short of the utilization aimed for in breeder reactors. A direct development of the early "Magnox" reactors in Great Britain has led to the "advanced gas-cooled reactor". In this system higher carbon dioxide coolant temperatures, which make possible the generation of high pressurei 1-4 superheated steam leading to improved thermal efficiency, have been achieved by replacing the magnesium alloy fuel cans with stainless steel, and sintered uranium dioxide fuel is used instead of uranium metal. The fuel has to be en­ riched in U235 content to counteract the neutron absorption in the fuel and its cans. Graphite is retained as the moderator. The other group of "second gen­ eration reactors" are those moderated with heavy water. A variety of coolants is possible, including heavy water, light water, carbon dioxide, or organic liquid hydrocarbons. Natural uranium dioxide fuel canned in zirconium alloy may be used in this class of reactor, although in the system cooled with light water it is necessary to employ enriched fuel. Recirculation of recovered plutonium in heavy water moderated reactors is another possibility which is being investigated. Heavy water moderated systems offer the prospect of low fuel cycle costs and further significant development in their technology.

The "third generation reactors" may be regarded as the systems of the future, even though small prototypes are already in operation and several larger power stations are under construction which will employ reactors in this category. The first type is the "high-temperature gas-cooled reactor" (H.T.G.C.R.), and it represents the most advanced technology in gas-cooled systems. By adopting an all-ceramic fuel element, and eliminating the metal fuel cans, coolant temperatures in the range 800-1000°C can be achieved. This permits the gen­ eration of steam with conditions equal to those obtaining in the most modern fossil-fuelled power stations, and offers the possibility of using gas turbines for power generation.

Another type in this category is the "molten salt reactor" (M.S.R.), in which the fuel consisting of enriched uranium fluoride is dissolved in a molten mixture of lithium, beryllium, and zirconium fluorides. - The fluid passes through a graphite core as moderator, and steam is raised in- external heat exchangers. A small prototype M.S.R. is operating. The system offers advantages of continuous chemical reprocessing of the fuel, the elimination of costly fuel element fabrication, high thermal efficiency, and the possibility of thermal breeding by using the U233 - thorium fuel cycle. However, the M.S.R. would require extensive development before it could be adopted for commercial power generation, and its place in the successive line of reactors will be influenced by developments in fast breeder reactors.

All countries havirig major nuclear power programmes are engaged in re­ search and development of fast breeder reactors (F.B.R.). Several small reactors of this type have operated successfully for some years, and large prototype stations are under construction to demonstrate the technology of this class of "third generation reactor" for commercial power generation. Most of the effort is concerned with the plutonium - U238 fuel cycle and the use of sodium as the coolant. Studies are also being undertaken on the use of steam or gas as alternative coolants.

In all power reactors, neutrons are produced in the fission process. Some of these are required to continue the chain reaction, and some convert fertile material (U238 or thorium 232) into fissionable material, plutonium 239, or uranium 233. Thus the fissionable fuel is to some extent self-replacing. In the converter reactors this replacement is less than 100$. For example, in the light-water reactors fission of 100 atoms produces about 50 new fissionable atoms from.fertile material. In the heavy-water reactors it can approach 90. In either case the fissionable content of the reactor core slowly declines and spent fuel must be withdrawn and replaced.

In the breeder reactors more than 100 atoms are produced from fertile material, for each 100 atoms fissioned. Hence the fissionable inventory increases. 1-5

Fissionable inventories may double in from 10 to 15 years. This enables not only all fertile material to be used but surplus fissionable material becomes available as the inventory for new power stations. The most promising fast reactor system, still under development, uses plutonium as the fissionable fuel and uranium 238 as the fertile material.

No moderator is used in a fast reactor. The F.B.R. is aimed at efficient use of the stocks of plutonium which are being accumulated from the world's thermal power reactors, and the conversion of U238 contained in natural uranium (or in "depleted" uranium from enrichment plants) into fissile piutonium. Large, commercial F.B.R's are expected to be in operation in the middle 1980's, and they will be capable of utilizing about 10$ of the uranium atoms produced from the world's mines. This greatly improved fuel utilization, compared with today's thermal reactors, makes the successful development of fast breeder systems a vital aspect of atomic energy programmes.

2.2. Overseas Programmes

Table 1 summarizes the position of nuclear power throughout the world.

In the United Kingdom, the first nuclear power programme called for eight stations to be built using natural uranium, C^-cooled, graphite-moderated reactors (Magnox systems). The aggregate output will be 4.,800 MW(e) when the last station is commissioned this year. At present, about 15$ of the electricity generated in the U.K. is derived from nuclear stations. A second nuclear power programme was announced in 1964- to bring the total capacity to 13,000 MW(e) by 1975. Six stations are now under construction or committed for this programme; all will have A.G.R.'s, and the total capacity will be 8,850 MW(e). A prototype steam generating, heavy water reactor (S.G.H.W.R.) of 100 MW(e) capacity came on power early in 1968, and an experimental fast reactor has been in operation since 1959. A prototype 250 MW(e) F.B.R. is planned for operation in 1972.

The military programme in the U.S.A. has had a profound influence on nuclear power development in that country, and has been responsible for the development and installation of enriched fuel, light water reactors*, Table 1 shows the importance of P.W.R. and B.W.R. systems in the U.S.A., and also reflects the success of reactor manufacturers in that country in exporting light-water reactors. A 4-0-MW(e) prototype H.T.G.C.R. has operated successfully for some years, and the first commercial power station (330 MW(e)) using this type of reactor is under construction. Two small fast reactors are in operation, but as yet no decision has been announced for construction of large, commercial F.B.R.'s in the U.S.A. By 1980, the installed nuclear power capacity in the U.S.A. is expected to be more than 150,000 MW(e), comprising mainly P.W.R. or B.W.R. systems. This will represent an investment of about |U.S. 19 billion. At that time some 35P of the electrical energy generated in the U.S.A. will come from nuclear power plants. By the turn of the century it is expected that nearly all new power plants in that country will use nuclear energy.

France based its early nuclear power programme on natural uranium, C0p- cooled, graphite-moderated reactors, and has 1,310 MW(e) of such plant operating in five stations. Improvement in the technology of this system was not as significant as expectedj and it appears; that future developments will be based partly on light-water reactors. A 250-MW(e)' F.B.R. is under construction, and France is interested in the technology of heavy-water systems, and may also develop this system. 1-6

Table 1 shows the impact that nuclear power has had in other European countries. Because of shortages of indigenous fuel, Western Europe will be depending more heavily on nuclear power in the future.

Canada has pioneered development of the natural uranium fuelled, heavy water moderated and cooled system ("CANDU"). This reactor utilizes a calandria vessel to obtain the cool moderator, and the heavy-water coolant under pressure is circulated through pressure tubes containing the fuel elements. In concept, therefore, it is quite different in design from the light-water reactors which use a large steel pressure vessel. Canada has a 203-MW(e) power reactor in operation, and has 5,020 MW(e) of plant under construction in two stations with CANDU reactors. In addition, a 250-MW(e) station using heavy-water moderator but boiling light water as coolant is under construction.

Other countries having heavy-water reactors in operation or under con­ struction are Argentina, France, Western Germany, India, Pakistan, and Britain. Japan, Italy, and New Zealand are studying reactors of this type for future""\ power generation.

3. NUCLEAR POWER PROSPECTS IN AUSTRALIA

Traditionally, power generation in Australia has depended principally on coal for its energy supplies. Within the last decade or so most of the large central power stations have been built on the coalfields, and today coal- burning stations provide over &0% of all electrical energy generated. The remainder, apart from several per cent derived from oil-fired or diesel plant, is generated by hydro plant, mainly in Tasmania and the Snowy Mountains. Coal will remain the principal energy source for electricity generation for many years, but the pattern will change gradually with'increased use of fuel oil, natural gas, and nuclear power.

The demand for electrical energy in Australia has increased at the rate of about 10$ per annum (compounded) over the last decade. This is higher than the figure for other industrialized countries (e.g. Britain-and the U.S.A.) and arises from the impetus given to population growth by immigration, a rapid increase in industrial development, and a rise in general living standards. The growth of the Australian electricity industry since 1932 is shown in Fig. 1, which also gives preddc tions of installed capacity and energy generated to the end of the century. In 1966 the electricity consumption in Australia was 2,571 kWh/capita/annum, whilst the corresponding figures for other countries were: Canada 7,527; U.S.A. 6,377; Britain 3,204; and Western Germany 2,731 kWh/capita/annum. Electricity consumption is some measure of the development and living standards of a country (though the consumption of other fuels is important also), and as these factors are expected to increase further in all countries - at different rates - each country's growth of its electricity industry will continue as far into the future as one cares to predict.

In Australia, Fig. 1 shows that the average rate of increase of installed generating capacity over the last 40 years or so has been 9.3$ per annum. If this trend continued unabated to 2000 A.D., the expected installed capacity would be some 160,000 MW(e). However, taking'account of the state of industrial­ ization here at present, and to be in line with thinking in the major overseas countries on their future rate of growth of power demand, it would seem prudent and more realistic to base predictions on slightly lower rates of increase - namely 8$ from 1969 to 1985, about 1% for the next 10 years, and reducing to "" 6% until the year 2000. On this hnsis, the total installed onuacity in Australia in 2000 A.D. would be 110,000 MW(e). To meet this expansion will require a major capital investment, particularly when it is realized that the total fixed 1-7

capital (original cost) of the Australian electricity supply industry at the end of 1969 was $4,975 million. The electricity industry is one of the largest in Australia in terms of capital, and the most important in terms of the benefits of its future growth.

3.1. Interconnected Power Systems

The predictions of the Australian Atomic Energy Commission (A.A.E.C.) on the rate of growth of power (derived as discussed above and shown in Fig. 1), and the possible role of nuclear power up to 2000 A.D., are given in Table 2.

The estimates in Table 2 assume that in the last decade of this century about 50% of the new plant additions will be nuclear, and by the turn of the century about one-third of the total installed capacity of power generation plant will be nuclear. Predictions over such a long period are subject to a fair margin of error, and the total nuclear capacity in the year 2000 might range from 25% to UOfo of the total installed capacity. However, the steadily increasing importance of nuclear power in Australia is evident from the above predictions. For instance, by the late 1980's, Australia should have in operation or under construction the equivalent of some twenty 500-MW(e) power reactors, representing an investment of more than $2 billion if ancillary industries are included.

Before considering, in a general fashion, the pattern of nuclear power development in the various State generating systems, it is necessary to refer to the present position and the predicted future maximum demand on each system. These data are given in Table 3-

The factors which will have a bearing on the relative cost of nuclear and conventional power are the unit sizes that can be installed in a particular system, the availability of fossil fuels and their location in relation to centres of demand, trends in capital costs of fossil-fuelled and nuclear-fuelled plant, and changes in the fuel costs of both types of plant. There is no doubt that nuclear power is in a more favourable competitive position when unit sizes of 500 MW(e) or larger can*be considered. The size of a power system and the rate of annual increase largely determine the optimum unit size of plant being installed. For larger systems such as New South Wales, with an annual increase of about 9%, the optimum size of unit is about 10% of the system maximum demand. For smaller systems having growth rate of some M$ (e.g. Western Australia) the optimum unit size would be 15-20% of the peak load.

Careful studies of the capital and generation costs of nuclear power plant indicate that in the late 1970's nuclear plant will be competitive with black-coal plant in New South Wales in unit sizes larger than 600 MW(e). A few years later, nuclear plant of 500 MW(e) should compete in Victoria with brown- coal-fired plant, and by about 1985 nuclear power, in the applicable unit sizes, should be competitive in the remaining States with the possible exception of Tasmania. In this State, although future hydro schemes will be more expensive to construct than those now in operation, at present there are estimated to be 1000 MW(e) (continuous) capacity of unexploited economic hydro resources (about 1500 MW(e) installed capacity). Considering the size of the" power demand in that State, nuclear power is unlikely to be introduced until the late 1980's.

3.2. Isolated Power Developments a At present the major mining and/or mineral processing centres in remote parts of Australia - such as Mt; Isa, Kalgoorlie, and Dampier (W.A,) - which . Jt are not connected to State electricity supply systems, have power demands .too JI small to justify consideration of nuclear power*. . ", . 1-8 Within the last decade there have been world-ranking discoveries of minerals in the northern part of the continent and there is now growing pressure not merely to' export raw minerals but to process them to refined products. These mineral fields generally are far removed from fossil fuel resources. If large-scale processing, requiring substantial amounts of electrical energy, is to be undertaken in the future close to the mineral fields, cheap nuclear power could be the solution. Typical examples would be aluminium smelting associated with the bauxite deposits at Gove, N.T., and Admiralty Gulf in the Kimberleys, and a central power station to supply the requirements of the various developments in the Hamersley iron province, Western Australia. By the turn of the century, such prospects could mean significant industrial progress and the opening-up of sparsely populated regions of the continent.

5. ANCILLARY INDUSTRIES OF NUCLEAR POWER

The introduction of nuclear power in Australia means far more than merely building and operating power stations. The country will need to become self-sufficient in the various supporting industries, and this development will have a great influence on Australia's industrial potential, both for the home market and for its export trade to south-east Asia, New Zealand, and elsewhere. The scope and significance of these developments are worthy of brief mention.

5.1. Nuclear Fuel Reserves

Australia is fortunate in having uranium (and thorium) resources, and they will be required as raw materials for the future fuel fabrication industry essential for nuclear power development. At present reserves of uranium which could be recovered at less than &'10/lb..of U308 are of-the order of 23,000 short tons U308, sufficient to supply fuel for only about 6,000 MW(e) of power plant over its expected life. Australia should have this amount of nuclear power in operation by 1986. Another way of expressing the uranium requirements for installation of thermal reactors as shown in Table 2 is that the cumulative requirements of U308 (for inventory and fuel consumption) up to the year 2000 would be some 74,000 short tons U308 for light-water reactors (PWR and BWR) and 48,000 short tons U308 for CAND1T .reactors. The adoption of fast breeder reactors in the latter part of the century would reduce these uranium requirements, but it is not possible to predict the extent tovhich they will be adopted during this period in Australia. It will be evident that the predicted fuel requirements are in excess of known, low cost reserves of uranium, and this is the reason for the Government's export policy which was announced in 1967. Prior to this there had been a complete ban on export of uranium, but the present policy relaxed this and gave encouragement to exploration. Whilst some discoveries have been made, there is no evidence of movement towards a position of over-supply and it would appear prudent until the reserves are increased substantially,. to keep the matter under continuous study. It should be remembered that when fast breeders are in operation each ton of uranium exported is a loss in energy re­ sources equal to that of 2,000,000 tons of black coal. Notwithstanding what is said above, there are reasons for quiet confidence that uranium reserves in Australia will expand steadily as exploration continues.

5.2. Fuel Fabri cation

Reactors cooled with either light or heavy water use uranium dioxide (UOp) fuel clad in zirconium alloy. Manufacture of nuclear-purity U0~ from Australian uranium concentrates ("yellow cake") is a relatively simple operation. For CANDU reactors no enrichment of the U02 would be required, but for PWR, BWR, or SGHWR systems enrichment to less than• % U235 content would be needed. This might be achieved in Australia by the gas centrifuge process of enrichment, should this finally prove to be economic. 1-9

Australia presently supplies about 70$ of the free world's requirements of zircon, the raw material for zirconium metal production, which is derived from the beach sand industry. Zircon, worth about 9 cents per kg of contained zirconium, is exported as Australia currently has no zirconium manufacturing industry. Zirconium metal sponge is worth about $10 per kg, and zirconium alloy tubing for fuel elements costs about $70 per kg. Clearly, there will be an incentive, when the local nuclear power industry is established (and from an export viewpoint)^ to consider the creation of an industry to refine zirconium iii Australia.

By 1990, if 11,500 MW(e) of nuclear power plant were installed in Australia, the annual value of the nuclear fuel fabrication industry would be some $170 million per annum for light-water reactors and about t-35 million for CANDU reactors. If imported this would involve an expenditure of foreign exchange, thus giving weight to the argument that we should become self-sufficient in our nuclear power industry.

5.3. Fuel Reprocessing

Nuclear fuel after removal from the reactor contains valuable residual uranium and plutonium. The plutonium will be required in the future to fuel fast breeder reactors, and when these systems are available commercially (overseas from 1985), the value of plutonium will increase on the world market.

The value of the residual enriched uranium in PWR, BWR, and SGHWR fuel necessitates early chemical reprocessing of the fuel to achieve desirable fuel cycle economics. The minimum economic fuel throughput for a reprocessing plant of this type is considered to be 1 tonne U/day. For natural uranium reactors (e.g. CANDU), immediate reprocessing is not so urgent, and the economic through­ put of a plant is more of the order of 5-10 tonnes U/day.

The alternative of not reprocessing fuel in Australia, when it can be undertaken economically, is costly and complicated transport of the highly radioactive spent fuel to an overseas plant. This should be avoided, and Australia should plan on establishing fuel processing facilities in the future.

5.4. Heavy-Water Production

All hydrogenous materials (water, natural gas, etc.) contain deuterium, the heavy isotope of hydrogen, which is the moderating nucleus in heavy water. The separation of deuterium from ordinary light hydrogen is possible by several well-established chemical exchange techniques, but because of the low initial concentration of deuterium (about 150 ppm in natural waters), pure heavy water is an expensive material (present price from U.S.A. is $U.S. 30.00/lb).

If heavy-water reactors are adopted in Australia, heavy-water production facilities will become of considerable interest. The CANDU system requires about 0.3 tonne;heavy water per MW(e), and the SGHWR system about 0,4 tonne heavy water per MW(e). On the basis of present technology, the water-hydrogen sulphide chemical exchange process would appear to be the most attractive for large-scale production, and by the mid 1980's possibly one plant of an output of 400 tonnes per annum of heavy water could be justified in Australia.

5.5. Radioactive Waste Disposal • •

Normal operation of a power station results in insignificant amounts of radioactive waste for disposal. However, once chemical reprocessing of. fuel is undertaken, in which the highly radioactive fission products are separated from . 1-10

the residual -uranium and plutonium, long-term storage of the highly radioactive waste has to be undertaken. Up to the present, overseas practice has been to store the liquid, waste in high-integrity underground stainless steel tanks. This has been regarded as an interim measure, and there are now developments overseas which indicate that processes will be adopted which convert the waste into a solid, non-leachable form which can be safely stored on a permanent basis.

This is a matter which Australia will have to consider at the appropriate time. A new industry will be required for treatment and safe disposal of radioactive wastes arising from the country's nuclear power programme.

6. THE JERVIS BAY PROJECT

The Commonwealth Government initiated, discussions early in 1969 with the State Governments on the introduction of nuclear power into Australia. Subsequently the New South Wales Electricity Commission (E.C.N.S.W.) was invited to collaborate with the A.A.E.C. in studying the feasibility of estab­ lishing a Commonwealth-owned nuclear power station. A number of sites were investigated, and, following Cabinet consideration, the Prime Minister announced in October 1969 that th^ Commonwealth would undertake the construction of a nuclear power station at Jervis Bay.

The Jervis Bay site was selected after study of a number of prospective sites in New South Wales and the Australian .Capital Territory. It is an almost ideal site in terms of minimum construction cost since foundation conditions are good, ocean water can be used for cooling purposes, and it is close to high-voltage transmission lines. Furthermore, it is removed from existing population centres, and is not far from'an area which promises to see sub­ stantial industrial development.

The nominal 'yOO-MW(e) station will be financed and owned by the Common­ wealth, which will supply fuel and retain the spent fuel. The E.C.N.S.W. will accept the energy into the State network and will reimburse the Commonwealth on a basis yet to be determined. The Agreement will also guarantee the long- term p,ower requirements of the Australian Capital Territory.

The station is planned to be in commercial operation by the end of 1975, and thus careful planning and scheduling of all aspects will be required to meet this date. Overall responsibility for the project has been entrusted to the A.A.E.C., working in close collaboration with the E.C.N.S.W. In November, 1969, Bechtel Pacific Corporation ' \d., a United States firm of engineering consultants with experience in the nuclear field, were appointed to assist the Commission in preparation of specifications and assessment of the proposals. The specification for the nuclear steam supply, fuel, and certain services was issued in February, 1970, to ten of the organizations which had earlier accepted the Commission's invitation to tender. A separate tender will be issued later for the turbo-generator. The tenders for the nuclear portion of the plant closed in June, and covered fourteen proposals from four countries (U.S.A., U.K., Western Germany, and Canada) for pressurized water, boiling water, steam gen­ erating heavy water, and heavy water moderated and cooled reactor systems. The detailed assessment of these proposals is proceeding. The A.A.E.C; plans to. submit its recommendation to the Government toward the end of the year. Major site construction could commence about March 1971.

The Government has decided that the reactor should be capable of operating on fuel which can be prepared and manufactured within Australia from Aus­ tralian resources. This is an important matter if Australia's future nuclear tie 1-11

power industry is to have an assured fuel supply and one -which does not require use of foreign exchange to import this commodity. Another feature of the Jervis Bay station will be the use of metric units, thus setting the pattern for subsequent nuclear power plant which will be built after the country has adopted the metric system.

The Jervis Bay nuclear power station is regarded by the Commonwealth as a pilot project for Australia, in which the engineering, reliability, and safety of nuclear power will be demonstrated fully to the country and to State gen­ erating authorities. From a national viewpoint, there will be many advantages in such fields as fuel-element fabrication and reprocessing if an orderly and uniform development of nuclear power occurs. In order to achieve this, State Governments have been invited to join with the Commonwealth on a National Consultative Committee on Nuclear Energy. This Committee will deal with such matters as licensing of reactor sites, reactors, and reactor operators; inter­ national obligations in respect of safeguards on nuclear materials; disposal of radioactive wastes; and liability in nuclear accidents. The process of designing, building, and operating the first station will provide valuable training and experience for engineers from the States as well as the Commission. Australian industry will be given opportunities to participate as much as possible in construction of the station.

The capital cost of the Jervis Bay station is expected to be higher than that of an equivalent coal-fired station, but the station will provide substantial operating economies during its life owing to its lower fuel costs. At this time, since the successful tenderer is not known, it is not possible to give actual capital or expected generation costs for the Jervis Bay station. However, the expenditure involved will be justified and is necessary if Aus­ tralia is to enter, without further delay, the nuclear age and thus join the many other nations which are already benefiting from this important, new, but well-established technology.

7. NUCLEAR ENERGY IN OTHER FIELDS

This paper has been concerned with nuclear energy in power generation, There are, of course, other fields in which nuclear energy has a significant contribution to make in the development of a country's resources and the better­ ment of mankind's ability to utilize these resources and thus improve his living standards. Space permits only brief mention of these applications.

7.1. Nuclear Desalination

Australia is a relatively dry continent, the average annual rainfall being only 17 inches. The mean annual run-off is rather less than 2 inches, compared with an average of almost 10 inches for all land surfaces of the globe. Mean annual flow from Australia's rivers is some 280 million acre-feet com- > pared with about 1,300 million acre-feet for the U.S.A. The two countries have much the same area.

The large-scale desalination of water using nuclear energy is technically feasible today, but generally costs are not yet competitive with natural water supplies. Costs can be improved by combining desalination with power generation, thereby making maximum use of the thermal energy in steam. Water costs from, large dual-purpose plants - say, producing at least 500 MW(e) of power and several million gallons/day of water - are expected to fall with further deve-/. lopment of the technology. Such processes do not depend upon the use of nuclear power, coal would do as veil', but since such unibs to be economical will have to be very large nuclear power is likely to be the preferred choice. Before the, 1-12

turn of the century it would not be unreasonable to expect Australian capital cities to be relying on desalinated sea water to meet the rising demands for their water supplies.

7.2. Nuclear Energy Centres

The concept of "nuclear energy centres" has been studied overseas, principally in the U.S.A. These large nuclear reactors would provide low-cost energy for an integrated industrial complex of chemical and electrometallurgical processes producing such materials as synthetic ammonia, phosphorus, fertilizers, caustic soda, chlorine, and non-ferrous metals, as well as supplying electricity for urban requirements. Another concept visualizes agro-Industrial complexes, in which, along with fertilizer and chemicals production, large reactors would be used for desalination to produce water cheap enough for controlled irrigation of a sophisticated and scientifically managed agricultural programme in arid areas. Power outputs of several thousand MW(e) and/or water productions of hundreds of million gallons per day would be required to achieve acceptable costs, and obviously the capital investment in any such scheme would be very large. Nevertheless, countries such as the U.S.A., Israel, Mexico, the United Arab Republic, and Italy have expressed interest in the future potential of "nuclear energy centres". With the passage of years it would not be unreasonable to expect that such developments might find application in Australia.

7.3. Peaceful Nuclear Explosives

The technology of peaceful uses of nuclear explosives is being developed overseas, since there are applications envisaged in the civil and mining engineering fields which could not be undertaken by conventional means. These applications range from harbour and dam construction, overburden removal, natural gas stimulation (in which gas is released from a deeply buried, lov permeability rock formation by fracturing the rock), preparation of underground ore-bodies f°r in situ leaching, and formation of underground reservoirs for gas or oil storage.

There are still problems to be overcome before nuclear explosives can be used for peaceful purposes. However, progress is being made in the technical, safety, and political aspects, and future applications can be envisaged in Australia where sparse population and remoteness would not prevent a particular project from being undertaken, on seismic damage or radiological health grounds.

7.4-. Radioisotopes

^Radioisotopes are now being more wide]y used in Australia in such fields as medicine (research and therapeutic), agriculture, industry, and general research. The A.A.E.C. has concentrated on producing two general types of radioisotope - those with a short half-life which otherwise would, be difficult or impossible to obtain from overseas, and those with a high specific activity (such as cobalt 60 used for cancer treatment).

It is 10 years since the first radioisotope was produced at Lucas Heights. Revenue from sales now exceeds $1 million and shipments are presently averaging about 800 per month. A worthwhile export business has been developed, and Australia can look forward to increasing benefits from the widespread use of " " radioisotopes. 1-13

8. CONCLUSION

This year has been a dramatic one in the history of Australia's industrial development. Practical steps have been taken to introduce nuclear power to this country with the calling of tenders for the Jervis Bay station.

The Atomic Energy Commission has, since its inception, been laying the foundations by undertaking research and by building up a body of highly trained personnel experienced in the many fields of nuclear energy, for this new era upon which Australia is now embarking. There can be no doubt that the country is on the threshold of economic nuclear power.

Electricity from the Jervis Bay station will cost marginally more than from a coal-fired station, but within a decade of its operation, power from a multi-unit station of some 2,500 MW(e) will be competitive with coal in N.S.W. A short time thereafter nuclear power will be competitive in the other States, and from then on nuclear power will play an increasing role supplementing the conventional methods of power generation. The complexities of nuclear power and its ancillary industries - both technical and financial - are beyond the resources of the individual States, and the Commonwealth is giving a lead in these fields.

Nuclear technology has much to offer Australia. It is expected that between now and the turn of the century a great new industry will be established in this country. The short-term aim is one of application and orderly development of nuclear power. The ultimate aim will be complete self-sufficiency, and the development of a healthy export business. 1-14 TABLE 1. NUCLEAR POWER - REACTOR SYSTEMS AND COUNTRIES (June, 1970)

Generating Capacity MW(e) Main User Under Countries No. Construc­ and Reactor of tion or Capacity Type Units Operating Committed Total (MW(e))

1. Gas-cooled U.K. 14,120; graphite France 1,855; moderated Spain 480; U.S.A. 370; Italy 200; 60 6,990 10,230 17,220 Japan 157-

2. Pressurized U.S.A. 46,098; water U.S.S.R. 3,365; W. Germany 2,147; Japan 1,666; Bel­ gium 1,610; Sweden 809#, Bulgaria 800; Czechoslovakia 800; Hungary 800; Switzer 98 4,880 57,363 62,242 land 700.

3. Boiling U.S.A. 29,762; W. water Germany 3,219; Sweden 2,280; Japan 2,522; Switzerland 1,106; Italy 719; Taiwan 550; 72 3,243 38,083 41,326 India 380.

4. Heavy Canada 5,492; India water 800; Argentina 318; Czechoslovakia 150; W.Germany 150; Sweden 141; Pakistan 24 451 6,830 7,281 125; U.K. 100.

5. Fast U.S.S.R. 750; U.K. 265; France 250; 7 92 1,250 . 1,342 U.S.A. 71.

TABLE 2. ESTIMATED GROWTH OF CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR POWER IN AUSTRALIA

Nuclear Plant Year Total Installed Conventional (ended 30th Capacity Plant June) MW(e) MW(e) MW(e) % Total

1976 22,000 21,500 500 0.2 1980 30,000 29,000 1,000 3.3 - 1985 43,000 39,000 4,000 9.3 1990 61,000 49,500 11,500 18.9 1995 83,000 60,500 22,500 27.2. 1 2000 110,000 74,000 36,000 32.8 1-15

TABLE 3. AUSTRALIAN ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY - PRESENT AND FUTURE

Forecast Future Year Ended June. 1969 Maximum Demand* MW(e! • •" Total Installed Electricity Principal fuel capacity generated fuel used expenditure State (MW(e)) (milli on kWh H'000 tons) ($'000) 1976 1980 1985

New South 6,647 Wales 4,166 15,532 (black coal) 30,364 8,100 11,000 16,500

Victoria 2,738 12,005 18,047 21,724 4,100 5,200 7,000 (brown coal)

Queens­ 2,225 land 1,546 4,968 (black coal) 15,004 1,90c"1" 2,700+ 4,000+

South 2,135 Australia 969 3,857 (sub-bitu­ N.A. 1,600 2,300 3,200 minous coal)

Western 913 Australia 564 2,058 (black coal) 7,595 1,400 2,100 3,500

Tasmania 1,009 4,610 Mainly hydro 311 950 1,200 1,500

* The forecast future maximum demands are A.A.E.C. estimates. The installed capacity would be about 15$ greater than the peak demand. Figures are for the Southern Queensland interconnected system only. 1-16

10,000.000 1,000.000

AVERAGE RATE OF X A 1,000,000 INCREASE 9-3% 100.000 PER ANNUM

^ SS

100.000 10.000

< _J Q_ o z cc 1X1 z 10,000 1,000 UJ

1.000 1- 1 X 1 X 1 X 100 1930 1940 1950 I960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR {ended 30th June) Fig.1 GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INDUSTRY IN AUSTRALIA 2-1

PAPER 2

AN ENERGY POLICY FOR QUEENSLAND

By: A. W. NQRRIE*

SUMMARY

Why have an energy policy? Before deciding on an energy policy, one must study resources and demand. Conservation must be considered. The principal energy resource of Queensland is coal. An energy policy must be flexible and subject to constant review. It should be based on an understanding of the aims of society, the resources available, and the effects of proposed developments on society and the environment.

1. INTRODUCTION

Why have an energy policy? Is it wise to try to plot one's course in advance when sailing into unknown seas? Could not an energy policy based on incomplete foreknowledge be dangerous rather than helpful? It could. However, there are advantages. The gathering and studying of information can enable us to see more clearly into the future. A wise energy policy based on study oV all.available information can help us avoid mistakes from oyer- , looking some important facts. "It can clarify the objectives of our society and indicate dangers to be avoided. It can serve as guide-lines in decision making. It can be used for co-ordinated and long-rterm planning, to ensure that-energy supplies will be available for both local and export requirements, as required, at minimum cost. It can be used to ensure that high-grade resources, required f. for future consumption, are not used wastefully. It can assist overall planning and the optimum use of our energy resources.

However, an energy policy can have disadvantages. There is the danger that it may be followed rigidly, without thought to changed circumstances... " State Mining Engineer, Department of Mines, Queensland; and Chairman, Queensland Energy Resources Advisory Council.

One must be alert to this. An energy policy should be flexible and constantly under review. Before deciding on an energy policy, all available relevant information must be studied. The difficulty encountered in obtaining this information and making estimates is the major limiting factor in preparing an energy policy.

2. PROVING OF COAL RESERVES One must know as.much as possible about the energy resources of the country. By energy resources, I mean all the sources of energy available to the community. One must prove adequate reserves (resources that are known and usable) by examining and measuring them, so that all necessary information about them is available when needed for the making of decisions. This proving of reserves is expensive. . It is a form of capital investment, bringing its reward in the future. Few countries can afford to prove reserves for a long time ahead.

In Queensland, the State Government has been active for many years in the proving of coal reserves. Acting on the report prepared by Powell Duffryn Technical Services, Ltd., in 1949, it was decided to expand the Drilling Branch of the Department of Mines and the Coal Section of the Geological Survey of Queensland. As a result, the footage drilled by the Department of Mines in proving of coal areas increased from 11,449 ft in 1950 to 91,568 ft in 1959.

This programme evolved into the proving, principally, of the reserves of coal which would be required by future Queensland power stations. Estimates of future coal requirements in each part of the "'State were made by the State Electricity Commission. The Geological Survey of Queensland then advised on areas to explore, and on the programme of drilling to be carried out by the Drilling Branch under the supervision of the Geological Survey, Results were assessed and reserves calculated by the Geological Survey, in consultation with the Coal Board, which then planned the necessary new mines in consultation with the State Electricity Commission and interested companies.

By the time a firm decision on cohs^truction of a new power station was necessary, it was possible to have the reserves of coal for the life of the power station (say 25 years) proved, the important properties of the coal determined, and costs of production estimated.

A drilling programme had to commence about 10 years before the coal was required, allowing 5 years to prove the coal and 5 years for planning, ordering, and construction of the power station and the establishment of new mines.

In 1969, the Drilling Branch drilled 155,610 ft',in the search for coal, at a cost of about $667,000. The success of this operation depended on co­ operation and close liaison between the State Electricity Commission, the Queensland Coal Board, and the Queensland Department of Mines. From this liaison there evolved the Queensland-Energy Resources Advisory Council, which extended this consultation and co-operation to problems relating to all energy resources l.n the State. ~~ ' \ 3. DEMAND • " , In addition to knowing what are the resources available for energy pro­ duction, one must estimate future-demand. This is difficult. One way is to study ; past trends and to project them into the future, making all allowances possible { <-J for changing conditions. If in the past growth of production has approximated to an exponential curve a convenient way often is to plot past production on a ratio chart, as shown in Fig. 1. This,shows that production of electricity in Queensland has been growing at the rs.te of about 10% annually, while consumption of coal in power stations has been increasing at the rate of about 6% annually, and population at the rate of about 2% annually.

A more useful way sometimes is to consider a ..Remand as being the product of population and a standard~of-living factor. In Fig. 1, N x S = D, where N = number of" persons, S = a standard-of-living factor = kilowatt-hours generated per person, D = the demand = electricity generated in kilowatt-hours. The future trend of each of the factors N and S can be estimated separately, so giving an estimate of D.

Still greater accuracy in estimating for the near future can be achieved by analysing demand in detail. Thus, demand for Queensland coal (Fig. 2) can be divided into export and local demand. Demand within the State can be con­ sidered under districts, industries, and projects (some definite, some tentative). Export demand can be estimated by countries, industries, exporting companies, and contracts (firm and under negotiation). The total of all these can give a clearer indication of the trend in demand. However, many different estimates of this trend can be made, according to the chosen assumptions.

A useful approach is to make two estimates, one conservative and the other optimistic. The future trend is likely to lie somewhere between the two. The more the trends diverge, the more uncertain is the future. In Fig. 2, A is a conservative estimate based on announced projects and contracts, while trend B includes many projects still under investigation.

One should not assume, without good reason, that present trends will continue far into the future. In fact, it is obvious that projecting an ex­ ponential trend for many years ahead eventually leads to ridiculous results.

It is suggested that the exponential growth curve is only the first part of a general curve of unrestricted growth, then throttled growth, and then decline. This may be seen, for example, in the growth and decline of groups of organisms throughout geological time (for example, Trilobites in Cambrian time, Graptolites in Ordovician time); in the growth and decline of an electric current; in the multiplication of bacteria after infection; in the progress of a virus infection; and in the production from a gas or oil field, or a mineral deposit.^ The first part of this curve may be exponential, representing unrestricted growth, or rather, growth controlled only by factors uninfluenced by the growth (for example, temperature). Then comes the stage of throttling,. when resources show signs of being exhausted, congestion affects development, or waste products accumulate to a harmful degree. The rate of growth slows until it may cease (equilibrium). If the throttling factors continue to grow stronger (for example, exhaustion of resources or food supply), then the final stage of decline leading to extinction may occur.

We often assume that exhaustion of resources will be the throttling factor, but today there are suggestions that pollution (i.e. accumulation of waste products) may exercise a throttling influence first.

Pollution may be represented by the equation N x S x E - P, where N is the number of persons in a community, S a materialistic standard-of-living factor, E a factor representing the efficiency (or- more correctly inefficiency, for it is-the inverse of efficiency)'with which the resource is being used,- and Pa measure of pollution. So, if pollution is to be limited, we must limit the number of persons in the community, or the so-called standard of living, or we must utilize our resources more efficiently, or we must limit several of these factors. Look again at Fig. 1. Coal consumed for electricity generation is a measure of one kind of pollution, for the amount of carbon dioxide discharged from power S'H'ions varies directly with the amount of coal burned. (Inci­ dentally, this is probably not a serious pollution factor at present and may never become serious, because of the introduction of other forms of power generation. It happens, however, to be a useful illustration of the principle.)

In Fig. 1, it is to be noted that N (population) has been growing steadily, S (electricity generated per person) has also been increasing steadily, but E (coal consumed per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated) has been decreasing steadily. The efficiency with which coal is burned and electricity generated has been increasing, but not fast enough to counter the rate of increase of N and S. So, this measure of pollution has been increasing year by year.

A deduction from this is that the technologist has an important part to play in controlling pollution, for he is the only person who can find ways to increase the efficiency with which many resources are utilized, and so reduce factor E. Unless this is done, we may soon have to face the alternatives of a declining material standard of living, or a declining population, or both.

4. CONSERVATION

Conservation, the wise management'of all our resources to ensure their best use by the community, both present and future, must be 'considered when determining an energy policy.

Conservation necessitates the resolving of many conflicts between con­ serving and using, between present and future requirements, between alternative sources of energy, between conflicting uses of a resource, between cheap, wasteful use and costly, complete use, between local demand and export. It is no wonder that the subject of conservation can cause so much argument.-

The problem of whether a resource should be used now or preserved for future use is \ difficult one. The price of preservation is usually the slowing of the growth of the country and the holding-down of the standard of living, for a shori time at least.

There is the risk that technological changes may make the resource valueless in the future.

Such problems are encountered in their most acute form in deciding whether to permit the export of energy resources or to preserve them for possible future use by the local community. A factor here is that mineral resources are irregularly distributed throughout the world. No country is completely self-sufficient. To refuse to share one's resources with the rest of the !, worJd could cut one off from the resources one must import. Such a refusal could be regarded as immoral, harmful to everyone, and a major cause of conflict, between nations.

The best answer often is a compromise. In Queensland, this problem has/"' arisen when considering proposals for export of coal from Central Queensland to Japan. In one case, a lease was granted for the purpose of mining coking coal for export, but a condition was imposed in the lease that the right to export, ; granted in return for the important capital works to be carried out by the lessee, j '• ' ' ' • ' • ' : " I 2-5 was limited to a specified quantity of coking coal. Before the lessee could mine and export more than this quantity, he would have to obtain the further approval of the Governor in Council, and before this was given, the Government would have the opportunity to satisfy itself that the additional permission did not jeopardize local requirements.

In the Central Queensland Coal Associates Agreement Act 1968 this principle was taken further; the quantity of coal that could be exported was to be determined in relation to the reserves that had been proved according to a stated formula.

To what extent should wasteful use of a resource be permitted? To be an ideaJList is impracticable. If 100% extraction of coal mined underground were insisted on, the cost of coal would often be unacceptable to the community. If 100% efficiency in power stations were the requirement, we should have no power.

The Queensland Government had a problem when considering one proposal to export coking coal, for the mining -of the coking coal necessitated the mining of large quantities of steaming coal, for which there seemed to be no market. The solution here was to allow the mining but to retain an option over the steaming coal for use in power stations at a favourable price, sufficient to make it economically attractive to construct a power station..to burn this by-product coal. As a result, a large new power station is under construction at Gladstone. The availability of large blocks of cheap power from this power station is expected to attract important industries to Central Queensland.

The choice between alternative sources of energy, such as coal and - petroleum products, in Queensland, has generally been allowed to be determined on an economic basis.

In the allocation of coal supplies to industry, the Queensland Coal Board has sometimes found it necessary to give weight to the overall and long-term good of the community and to factors such as softening the impact of changes that affect employment.

The working of energy resources can result in damage to other resources. Opencut mining, for example, can damage the surface of the iand for other uses; here, a careful economic study can often indicate the best solution. Again, mining and utilizing uranium gives rise to radioactive waste products that must be disposed of with great care. '

There is danger that valuable energy resources may be damaged by other human activities. For instance, it could be unwise to build a town.over important deposits of opencut coai, or over thick seams of coal at shallow depth.

There is need for co-ordinating the development of all energy resources. The Queensland Coal Board was established in 194-9 to improve the efficiency of the coal industry. In.1966, the Queensland Energy Resources Advisory Council tfas formed to improve the liaison and co-operation between Government organi­ zations concerned with the utilizing of energy resources.

5. ENERGY RESOURCES OF QUEENSLAND

The principal energy resource of Queensland is coal. There are two major coal regions,; Ipswich and Central Queensland. The Ipswich coalfield, is strategically located hear Brisbane, and supplies steaming coal to power stations 2-6

t in the region. The vast Central Queensland, coal region contains good coking and steaming coals in large quantities, much of which can be mined cheaply by opencut methods. As a result, in recent years there has been a rush to prove suitable deposits and establish new mines for the export of coking coal to Japan. This has been regarded as the first phase, leading to the establishment of new industries based on the coal supplies.

Reserves of coking coal in Queensland have been estimated at 1,729 million tons measured and indicated, with large quantities inferred. For non- coking coal, an estimate is 1,569 million tons measured and indicated, with large amounts inferred. Much work remains to be done in proving reserves.

The principal producing oilfield is Moonie, which is supplying the refineries at Brisbane through a 200-mile long pipeline. Remaining recoverable reserves of oil in the State are about 5 million barrels (of 35 imperial gallons). Much of the State contains rocks in which accumulations of petroleum may occur, and only a small portion of these rocks has. been thoroughly tested for petroleum. At present, interest in exploration is declining-, but it can be expected to revive.

Natural gas is being produced from a number of relatively small gasfields near Roma and is piped about 300 miles to Brisbane, where it is used principally for manufacture of fertilizer and as town gas. Remaining recoverable reserves are about 266 thousand million cubic feet, and these are being added to by exploration. Potential areas are the same as for crude oil, .and it is certain that much more natural gas will be discovered. The hydro-electric capacity of Queensland has been estimated to be about 295 megawatts,, of which 132 megawatts is being utilized. Uranium has been worked at Mary Kathleen, and many deposits have been found, in the Mount Isa region. Measured and indicated reserves of the State are about 10,000 short tons of U^Og, recoverable at a price of $8 per pound. There is at present great activity in prospecting for uranium.

Near Julia Creek, extensive deposits of oil shale have been found and are being vigorously explored.

Probably the greatest energy resources of the State are solar radiation and geothermal heat, but it will probably be. many years before these are significant competitors with our conventional sources of energy. Like hydro­ electric power, solar and geothermal energy sources would be free from most pollution problems.

6. AN ENERGY POLICY

Most would agree that the energy resources of a country should be used wisely in the best interests of the community, both present and future. What are the best interests of the community? This is not for public servants or |; technologists to decide, although they may make useful suggestions. Ultimately, [; they must take their instructions on this matter and work accordingly.

In developing an energy policy consideration must be given to all possible | effects on the community. There should be the widest possible communication | and consultation, so that we are aware of all the effects of a proposal affecting f energy policy. [ In Queensland, it seems likely that the most economic source of electric I power for many years ahead will be coal burned in thermal power stations. This f is. because the State has large resources of suitable coals, favourably located, i «4 2-7

that can be mined and delivered to power stations at competitive costs. Capital costs for these projects are likely to be relatively low, an important factor where, as in Queensland, capital is a limiting factor in the growth of the State.

Large power stations are likely to obtain low unit costs. The best choice of location for such stations would be near the Ipswich coalfields and in Central Queensland. The precise locations would have to be chosen after weighing factors such as available supplies of coal and cooling water, location of demand, and disposal of waste products.

We can expect to see a trend towards using waste products, such as the low-grade heat in cooling water, as useful by-products supplying other industries. Also to be encouraged will be the use of coal as raw material in chemical industry.

The best uses for natural gas are likely to continue to be as raw material for chemical industry and for town-gas supply.

Liquid petroleum products are such concentrated and convenient sources of energy that it will be hard to replace them for many uses such as transport and small isolated power plants. However, with these fuels pollution problems i will require increasing attention.

Uranium is a very concentrated source of energy, and so transport costs are not likely to favour its use near the source of supply. Rather it is likely to be used near centres of electricity demand. Since preference is likely to be given to very large atomic energy power stations, for reasons of efficiency, J most of these power stations will probably be-located at sites near great cities and industrial areas.

The wise energy policy will be based as much as possible on an under­ standing of the aims of society, the resources available,. and the effects of proposed developments on society and the environment. Since knowledge of these will never be complete and will be constantly changing, an energy policy must be flexible and under constant review.

7. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

In the preparation of this paper, the members of the Queensland Energy Resources Advisory Council gave valuable assistance, as did officers of the Department of Mines. The paper is presented with the permission of the Minister for Mines and Main Roads, the Hon. R.E. Camm, M.L.A. However, the author is entirely responsible for the contents of the paper, which does not necessarily express the views of the Government of Queensland or of any person or organization other than the author. *>; FIGURE 1 QUEENSLAND

-*•* ^^^ COAL • <>••• 1000 consumed for Electricity generation in 1000 ton's. »•»•»•

>•• ^'

>••' 100 *±IA<± ,«5» ©o»*© •• ELECTRICITY >••••' generated in 100,000,000 Kwh. ,••'

• ••**# >•• 10

POPULATION in millions of persons. ****** 1.0

• • ••• 0.1 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 r FIGURE 2 GOAL Production in Long Tons per Year

World •< 10' •••• ,•••••••• to U,'.5.-4 . # >••• ••••••••^./••••• >••••*••* ••••• • ••••%• ••!••••

10" k-B ••' Australia >••••<

»••••••••• 107 ••••»,»•« f9 % A • •• •• • •••** • ••'•• QUEENSLAND .••

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10s 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1 3-1

PAPER 3

AUSTRALIAN PRIMARY ENERGY REQUIREMENTS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

By: C. F. GARTLAND*

SUMMARY

The Australian consumption of fuel for various purposes in 1968-69 has been estimated, and forecasts are made from a study of the expected requirements up to the year 1979-SO. In the forecasts particular attention has been paid to the requirements of industry.

Transport now consumes 54$ of the total petroleum fuels and the pro­ portion is expected to remain at about this level. Primary energy requirements of both the Agriculture and the Domestic-Commercial sectors are expected to more than double over the period 1968-80, Electricity generation will require 1112 x 1012 Btu in 1979-80 as compared with 500 x 101S Btu in 1968-69.

Industry will show an average growth rate of 5.4$ per annum, but the most rapid growth will be the forecast 9% per annum average of the mineral and metallurgical industries. Forecast primary energy usages by the various industries are given.

Forecasts of energy demand based on these individual sectors indicate a rise in the consumption'of energy from all sources except firewood. Black coal consumption is expected to rise from 24.3 to 41.7 m tons, brown coal from 24 to 36 m tons, natural gas from 20.2 to 3237 m therms, and petroleum used for fuel purposes from 163 to 294 m barrels.

Individual petroleum product consumption will rise at varying rates, [the most rapid growth being shown by aviation turbine fuel. Furnace fuel is ; expected to double during the period, despite competition from natural gas |in the capital cities.

Chief Fuel Technologist, Department of National Development, Melbourne, 3-2

1. INTRODUCTION

In common with most other industries, the supply and consumption of fuel has been characterized by growth and change. A hundred years ago the fuel picture was simple - coal, wood, and a little oil from various sources met the requirements of the people. Today many sources of energy are used and the quantity required annually, in total or on a per capita basis, far exceeds the figures prevailing at that time. For example, the amount of black coal used today is about forty times that of a century ago, and yet black coal supplies only a third of the primary energy consumed in Australia.

The early years of this century were marked by expansion in the usage of oil, both in regard to the number of applications as well as the quantity consumed. The main source of these fuels has always been crude petroleum, but at times supplies derived from oil shales have also been marketed. Since World War II liquid fuels have assumed an ever-increasing importance, a process greatly accelerated after the establishment of large refineries in Australia during the 1950's.

Although developments during the past decade have conformed to these trends, of recent years new factors have had to be taken into consideration which will result in some marked changes during the !70's. These factors are the virtual completion of the shift from coal to oil in some industries and the arrival of natural gas in substantial quantities. The 'seventies will see the first electric power generated from nuclear energy in Australia, but this energy source is unlikely to supply a significant proportion of Australia's require­ ments until after the end of this decade.

2. BASIS OF FORECAST

In many sections of the community, particularly those concerned with Government, industry, or research, it is possible to decide the direction of future efforts only on the basis of some forecast of likely developments. Primary energy demand and supply is a parameter common to many fields, and one on which forecasts will therefore be of interest to a wide range of people.

The forecasts on which this paper is, based were undertaken in an attempt to provide an objective assessment of the various factors influencing consump­ tion trends. The co-operation of industry was sought and in almost every instance was freely given. Because of the high level of response; the indus­ trial fuel requirements given in this paper are put forward with a certain degree of assurance in that they are based on the best information currently available.

At the basis of a study such as this, there are a number of unavoidable assumptions. A major one is that the current economic trends will continue for the full period, and a second is that technological break-throughs will be unlikely to be incorporated in industrial practice within the decade to such a degree as to cause a marked change in fuel consumption patterns.

More specific matters relate to the dates of first supply of natural gas in Perth and Sydney, which have been assumed to be during the fiscal years 1971-72 and 1973-74 respectively. The first has recently been confirmed by an announced intention to build a pipeline to Perth by the end of 1971. Other .'"..' assumptions relate to the date of commencement of operations of some large mineral and industrial developments which require substantial quantities of energy. 1 3-3

i 3. THE DIRECTION OF USAGE OF ENERGY

The earliest application of fuels was undoubtedly domestic, and until quite recently in a historical sense, the greater part of all fuel usage was j in this sector, but today by far the largest proportion is used for other purposes. The estimated requirements of each sector of usage of primary energy are set out in Table 1.

? 3.1. Transport

' In Australia transport has a particular significance because of the vast * distances between major population centres. Today the energy requirements of -: transportation are almost wholly supplied by petroleum fuels and, because they * are indispensable for this purpose, whereas the needs of most other sectors could < be met by alternative fuels, the transport sector must be considered their most i important use.

* Road vehicles require motor spirit and automotive distillate. On the j railways coal consumption has almost vanished, the steam locomotive being I replaced by the more efficient if less romantic diesel-driven locomotive. In $ the air during the same period a change has occurred, with the result that the "| piston-type engine using gasoline is today much less important than the gas 1 turbine for which a kerosine-type fuel is required. On the sea, liquid fuels * reign unchallenged except by the prospect of future developments in nuclear- ,| powered vessels. 1 4 For the year 1968-69, the usage of petroleum fuels for transport purposes ] is estimated at 88 million barrels out of a total consumption of 163 million 4| barrels, so that more than half {5U%) of all our liquid fuels was used in this I sector. Of this total amount, 7 million barrels (m.bbl) was consumed in air- J craft, 3 m.bbl by railway locomotives, and 15^-m.bbls by shipping. The remainder, 62-J- m.bbl, was used in road vehicles. No marked changes are foreseen during the next decade in the established patterns of transport and the fuels required for this purpose, but continued growth in the quantity of fuel required for transportation in Australia is forecast. For the year 1979-80 the total estimated demand is 156 m.bbl (53% of the total petroleum fuel consumption of 294- m.bbl.).

3.2. Agriculture

Allied to transport in many ways is the fuel demand for agricultural purposes. Fuel is vital to the primary producer, as every type of agriculture in Australia employs powered implements and, as with transport, these require petroleum fuels. The amount used by farmers as gasoline, kerosine, and diesel oils is estimated at 5.5 m.bbl in 1968-69, and is. expected to increase to 12.1 m.bbl by the end of the decade. i as 3.3. Domestic and Commercial

These two uses are closely associated: in both, the fuel is used for lighting, space heating or cooling, cooking, and similar purposes. The con­ sumption of primary fuel in this sector is expected to double in the period, rising from 71 x 1012 to W x 1012 Btu. This of course does not tell the whole story, as it is concerned only with primary fuels; it does not take...... into account secondary energy sources-such as electricity, manufactured gas, coke, and briquettes. -• 3-4

This multiplicity of energy sources now available in the homes in capital cities gives the domestic consumer a wide choice and a chance to benefit from the competition between them. Domestic usage of energy per capita is expected to continue to rise1 as more homes.adopt higher standards of comfort, e.g. the installation of central heating and air conditioning.

The use of natural gas an fuel for total-energy units in large office buildings or shopping complexes is a possible future development - already the B.H.P. company is planning to install such a unit in its new headquarters in Melbourne. Total-energy units may become significant in the later part of the decade.

3.A. Electricity Generation

Meeting the community's demand for electricity is the largest single usage of fuel, and one that has over the present century shown a remarkably high and consistent rate of increase, nor is there any evidence to suggest that there will be a slackening in this rate in the near future. From a level of 500 x 1012 Btu in 1968-69, the forecast for 1979-80 is put at 1,112 x 1012Btu.

In this sector, coal is the predominant fuel and is not likely to be seriously challenged in the immediate future. Of the fossil fuels used in 1968-69, coal provided 94$ on a heat basis. By 1979-80 this is expected to . fall to &3%. Most of the difference will be taken up by natural gas, which is forecast at 10$ of the total in 1979-80.

The present decade will see the first, use in Australia of nuclear energy. As the Commonwealth Government has recently announced, the first nuclear power station will be built at JervisBay, and is expected to be in operation by 1976, Although it is likely that by 1980 other nuclear power stations may be in construction or planning stages, it has been assumed that no others will have reached the operational stage.

There is always speculation that other forms of energy such as tidal, solar, and wind power will be harnessed to provide future electricity. It is considered that while work on developing techniques may progress, no commercial plants of these types will be in use in the 1970's.

3.5. Industry

Table 1 gives a partial dissection of the usage of primary energy by industry. It will be taken further in Section 4.

In 1968-69 the total usage for industry, i.e. secondary industries and mining and metallurgy, was 750 x 1012 Btu.

By 1979-80 the industrial consumption is expected to rise to 1,350 x 10'* Btu. This overall figure, whilst showing a healthy growth rate of 5,A% per annum, hides some substantial differences between different industries. The mineral and metallurgical industries are expected to show the most rapid rise in fuel consumption, with an average annual growth rate of 9%» Only two industries are expected to decline. Interestingly enough, these are both in the fuel sector; they are the production of town gas (to be replaced by natural gas) and the manufacture of brown coal briquettes in Victoria, demand- for which is expected to fall. 3-5

> 4.. INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION Industry provides an example of keen int^er-fuel competition. The traditional energy source, coal, has long suffered from the inroads of fuel oil, but both must now face competition from natural gas, and, in some areas, from LPG. In certain industries, gas offers advantages such as cleanliness, ease of control, and consequent reduction in percentage of rejects,, which render it a premium fuel. In other cases it must compete on a much finer margin of technical advantage over fuel oil or coal. It. is difficult to assess the degree of penetration of the industrial market by natural gas, because future price moves may render erroneous any predictions based on present levels* Natural gas is expected to provide just over 13/5 of the fuel requirements of industry in 1979-80.

The total primary energy requirements of the various industries are forecast in Table 1, and in Table 2 the proportions are given of the require­ ments of each of the larger industries which have been assigned to each fuel. A further breakdown of fuel requirements for some of the major sectors of the mineral and metallurgical industries is given in Table 3.

4-.1. Minerals Production

1 Ores of iron, aluminium, and nickel in Western Australia, aluminium and i manganese in the Northern Territory, and aluminium in Queensland provide the * basis for some of the mineral industries that have started up in recent years k and are expected to mushroom in the 1970's. New projects, feasibility studies, i and export contracts are continually being reported.

While estimates of fuel requirements up to 1975 can be based largely on existing and potential export contracts, beyond that time the rate of expansion | is open to a much greater degree of speculation. However, provided that current I world economic conditions are maintained, it is reasonable to assume the demand I for Australian minerals will continue to grow and that new reserves will be 1 found to meet the demand. It is also likely that in the latter half of the -k decade there will be a trend towards export of metals rather than basic ores. J At present there are two major alumina plants in Australia with a total annual capacity of less than 2,000,000 tons. By 1980 there could be as many as seven plants with a total capacity of 8,000,000 tons perannum. When it is con­ sidered that 1 ton of alumina requires the fuel equivalent of about 2 barrels of furnace oil, some idea can be gained of the growth in fuel consumption which such an expansion would represent. The possibility of another aluminium smelter being established in Australia would seem to rest on the availability of cheap electric power at a suitable location.

Production of iron-ore pellets could increase from 4- million tons to 25 million tons by 1980, in addition to ore production of 85 million tons. With Australia supplying an increasing proportion of the world's iron ore, as well as quantities of•coking coal, it seems likely that the Australian production of steel for export may become substantial by the latter part of the decade. Under proposals already made public, new steel plants could be set up in Western Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales.

Nickel is still at a very early stage of development. How much ore will be found in the intensive search now going on in Western Australia is hard to estimate, but presently proved reserves .should ensure a healthy growth rate in this decade. In addition to the mining and concentrating operation, a refinery

A m 3-6

is being completed at Kwinana and it is predicted that at least two smelters will be built in Western Australia. Perhaps the only mineral industry that is not expanding is gold mining. A fixed price for gold in the face of rising costs could mean the virtual end of this industry. 4.2. Cement ! Because of the importance of the cost of energy in cement manufacture and. of the possibility of using many different fuels, cement is interesting in regard to fuel competition. Where suitable raw materials are available in proximity to supplies of coal, this fuel continues to hold the market. It is expected that coal will continue to be used in New South Wales at least until the end of the decade. Natural gas will be used where it can offer economic or other advantages (e.g. avoidance of pollution). Already the two cement factories in South !; Australia have changed to natural gas. Other Australian cement manufacturers i use fuel oil, but a change to natural gas appears likely during the 70Ts in some instances.

4-.3. Town Gas I Town-gas production is expected to show a marked decline due to the 1 arrival of natural gas. The use of coal for manufacture of town gas has been j declining rapidly over the past decade and this decline has been hastened by the () ' coming of natural gas. Coal requirement will fall from 0.9 million tons, in '!' 1968-69, virtually to nothing. Usage of petroleum products is also expected to ,l fall markedly, being restricted at the end of the period to Tasmania and K country areas in other States. I • 'i I ':', : Of recent years the most important feedstock has been LPG used by re- fdrm^hg, by admixture with lean gas, or mixed with air to give tempered LPG,' i Other feedstocks have included brown coal briquettes, fuel oil, light naphtha, and refinery tail gas.

LPG is now being supplied in many country centres by delivery from a , small tank wagon into containers on the consumer's property. It is expected that country centres will increasingly abandon obsolete reticulation systems in favour i ! of this method of supply.

4-4« Other Industries

, The food, drink, and tobacco industries are widely spread throughout all j, States. For this reason no marked changes are expected in the fuels employed, •j. i, these being largely determined by local conditions. However, a substantial I , rise in natural-gas usage appears likely. i h r • £ Other industries are expected to show somewhat lower rates of increase ;„ i in fuel consumption. Special mention should be made of oil refining, as the fuel)* required for this purpose is not expected to increase in proportion to the fore- '- \ % cast rise in demand for petroleum products. The refinery fuel is expected to i; \>*)\\ .. fall from 15.5 .million barrels (fuel oil equivalent) in 1968-69 to 12.6.million ?, Cf barrels in 1972-73, and to rise from that period to 17.2 m. bbl (f.o.e.) .-. '* ju'"! in 1979-80. '} The fall in the early ' 70's is associated with the processing of indigenous crude oils in place of imported crudes. The local oil is much lighter, and consequently a lower proportion of material will go to the catalytic crackers, in which a significant part of the total fuel consumption occurs. Another factor is expected to be the importation of a significant proportion of the total consumption as fuel oil, not requiring refinery processing.

Clay products manufacture will show substantial gains in output of saleable e product from use of natural gas, as well as benefiting from reduction of pollu- j tion. This is indicated by the use, at the present time, of LPG in some plants, ' despite the relatively high price of this fuel. A substantial swing to natural gas is therefore expected for clay products manufacture in the areas in which this fuel will become available.

All fuels used in paper manufacture are expected to show increases in consumption, without marked changes from one fuel to another.

Manufacture of chemicals is expected to continue to expand rapidly, as is shown by the forecast average annual rate of growth of 6.6$ in fuel consumption. This excludes natural-gas and petroleum products used as feedstocks (e.g. for ammonia or ethylene production).

5. FORECASTS OF PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Taking into account the sectors already discussed, a forecast of total fuel consumption through the period has been prepared and the Australian totals are set out in three tables. The total expected consumption, expressed as Btu's split up by type of fuel, is presented in Table U9 and expressed in con­ ventional units in Table 5»

On the basis of the present study, the total primary fuel consumption is expected to almost double in the decade. All fuels excepting firewood share in this growth.

5.1. Natural Gas

At this point of time (June 1970), natural gas has recently become available in three capital cities and it is expected that it will be piped with­ in 3 years to the remaining two mainland State capitals. The full impact of its competition on other fuels is only just beginning, and its growth to date has been limited largely by the numbers of customers whose appliances have been converted. There is therefore .no trend line or other guide as to the rapidity of its acceptance by the consumer, or any indication of the proportion of the relevant fuel market it will command in the future.

The estimates of the growth of natural-gas consumption presented in this paper are somewhat lower than those made previously. The present figures are based on progress to date, and on an assessment of the attitude of industrial plant management. A major uncertainty is the date of introduction of natural gas to Sydney; this will have a substantial bearing on the total Australian consumption. Clearly, the natural-gas forecasts are the least satisfactory section of the forecasts and the one most liable to prove, in the event, to have been wide of the mark.

Natural gas is seen as making a substantial impact on other fuels in the first 5 years after it is introduced, .but thereafter its rate of growth is expected to decrease and consumption of all other competitive fuels (except wood) to return to a higher growth rate. • By 1980 it is forecast that natural gas 3-8

will have obtained less than 10$ of the total primary energy market. This may be considered rather low when compared with U.S.A. and Canadian experience. However, the forecast must allow for the different conditions in Australia - for instance, the absence of the heavy home heating requirements of colder countries. In industry, the price for which natural gas is generally being offered at present is not low in comparison to other fuels, and clearly this will affect significantly the amount of gas which will be used for industrial purposes.

On the other hand, Government authorities and the public are becoming more concerned about air pollution, both as regards (i) particulate fall-out from coal, and (ii) sulphur oxides from furnace oil. Natural gas is a clean burning fuel, practically free from sulphur compounds, and burns with a soft, even flame which can be finely controlled. It therefore has a number of advan­ tages in industries which use their fuel for direct heating such as clay products, cement, metal finishing, and food industries such as bakeries. Already some brickworks in Adelaide and Brisbane have converted to gas, as have the cement factories in Adelaide.

It is difficult to put a monetary value on these advantages of natural gas, particularly because this value varies widely according to the industry and to the circumstances of each particular case. However, a general consensus of opinion is that the technical advantages can be assessed as being of the order of 1 cent per therm, except where the properties of gas offer particular advantagess The rising concern over pollution could cause an increase in this figure.

5.2. Coal

For coal, a rising rate of growth is seen in the 'seventies. Whereas in the past decade an average annual growth of 3$ was achieved, this is forecast to increase to 5$. The reason for this is that the loss of markets in such fields as railways and gas manufacture is now virtually complete, so that coal, now free of these annual losses, can share in the rising growth rate of its two main consumers - electricity generation and s/.eel manufacture.

Surprisingly, it is not anticipated that coal (black and brown together) will lose a great deal of its share of the market; over the decade its share is seen to decrease from 4-5$ to 4-0$ of the total primary energy consumption. For comparison, petroleum products will also decline - from 50$ to 4-7$.

5.3. Petroleum

Table 6 sets out forecasts for consumption of petroleum fuels. The total demand (all fuel products) in 1968-69 was 163 million barrels. It is considered that in 1979-80 the petroleum fuel demand will be 294- m.bbl, including refinery fuel.

For comparison, world demand for crude oil in 1968-69 was approximately 16,500 million barrels. The.-average rate of growth over the past decade has been 7.7$ per annum. If this continues the world consumption will be close to 100 m. BPD (barrels per day) by 1979-80. Australian consumption would then, as now, represent less than 1$ of the world total.

Let us now consider the individual petroleum products; their rates of growth are expected to differ widely. 3-9

5.3.1. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG).- LPG may in the future assume greater importance in Australia as a result of increased availability arising from discoveries of indigenous petroleum. Whereas in the past LPG availability has been determined by refining patterns, an increase in the pro­ duction level amounting to 1 million tons per annum is expected to be attained in the near future from natural-gas and crude-oil production from the Gippsland Shelf fields alone.

The high cost of pipeline transport of natural gas to smaller markets not adjacent to trunk pipelines, could favour the alternative use of LPG in the less populous areas, whether in bulk, in bottles, or by reticulation as tempered LPG.

Despite this, the forecast for LPG is shown as dropping from the present • level of 3.1 m. bbl and then rising unevenly to 4.3 m. bbl in 1979-80. The reason is that the coming of natural gas will displace LPG from its largest use - the manufacture of reticulated town gas in the capital cities - and the unevenness referred to results from the dates set for the arrival of natural gas in the State capitals. The eventual rise in total consumption indicates a rapid growth in usage in other areas.

5.3.2. Gasolines.- Aviation gasoline is interesting in that after years of falling consumption due to the gradual changeover of major air lines to aviation turbine fuel, the many light aircraft are expected to consume a gradu­ ally increasing quantity in the future.

Motor spirit will show a continued growth. Because of the increase in population, and the continued fall in the average number of people per car, the number of cars will continue to climb, but the mileage per car is expected to fall, resulting in some slowing in rate of rise of motor spirit consumption by the end of the decade. Nevertheless, motor spirit, with an expected demand for 93.6 m.bbl in 1979-80, remains the largest volume product.

5.3.3. Kerosines.- Turning to the kerosine fraction, power and lighting kerosines are expected to diminish in volume as their functions are taken over by other fuels. However, aviation turbine fuel, which is also a kerosine, is expected to much more than make up for these losses. Demand is expected to triple in the decade, from 7.6 to 22.8 m.bbl.

Consumption of heating oil is also expected to grow rapidly, despite competition from other sources of energy. The four products in the kerosine range are expected to form the fastest-growing product group.

5.3.4. Diesel Oils.- Automotive distillate, a product which has many uses, is expected to grow from 21.0 to 4-8.1 m.bbl. Consumption of industrial diesel fuel, on the other hand, does not seem to be likely to increase.

5.3.5. Fuel Oil.- It will be seen from Table 6 that the consumption of furnace fuel oil is expected to grow quite rapidly, despite competition from natural gas. The reasons for this are twofold: first, the projected relative price levels of natural gas and competitive fuels in Melbourne and Sydney, to which reference has already been made; and secondly, the large growth forecast in fuel consumption in the mineral industries in north and north-west Australia, remote from known commercial natural-gas supplies.

Over the period the consumption of fuel oil is expected to double, from 44.2 to 88.1 m.bbl (241,000 BPD). 3-10

6. CONCLUSIONS

So far, the forecasts made in the present study have dealt with individual sectors of consumption. The total figures will now be considered in relation to foreign countries, to the population trends, and to the performance of the individual States.

During the '60's (i.e. from 1960-61 to 1968-69) the average annual rate of increase of consumption of energy in Australia was 5.5$. The forecast is that this will increase to an average of 6.0$ p.a. over the period to 1979-80.

For comparison, the average percentage annual rates of increase of primary energy consumption for 1960-67 in some other countries were as follows: U.S.A., 4.3$; Britain, 1.0%; Canada, 7.2$; Japan, 11.1$; New Zealand, 5.6$; U.S.S.R., 6.3$; World, 5.^ *

Australia consumed 1$ of the world's total primary fuel supplies in 1967 and was twelfth among the nations of the world in the per capita consumption of energy - although the consumption per person was only half that in the U.S.A. The per capita requirement has increased steadily from 115 million Btu in 1960- 61 to 152 million in 1968-69. It is anticipated that it will reach 229 million Btu per person in 1979-80.

This average figure hides some wide differences between individual States. Based on projections of the population, Table 7 indicates the changes in per capita consumption forecast oyer the decade.. It also reflects the changes ex­ pected in the relative energy consumptions of the States resulting from the developments in mining and minerals processing. The notable examples are Western Australia and the Northern Territory, where by the end of the decade per capita consumption is forecast to be about twice that of the other States.

Lastly, it is of interest to look at the pattern of, and changes in the relative importance of, the different primary fuels in each State, as shown in Table 8 in which the position for 1968-69 is compared with 1979-80. Points of interest in this table are the importance of black coal in New South Wales, of brown coal in Victoria, the relatively small impact forecast for natural gas in Queensland, its large impact in South Australia, and the predominance of petroleum in Western Australia and of hydro-electric power in Tasmania.

ft 8

* Reference - World Energy Supplies - Series J, United Nations. 1 > 4 & ij 3

TABLE 1. AUSTRALIA: FORECASTS OF CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY BY USE Unit - 1012 British Thermal Units

1968-9 1969-70 1970-1 1971-2 1972-3 1973-4 1974-5 1975-6 1976-7 1977-8 1978-9 1979-80

Agriculture 31.6 33.6 36.7 38.3 41.0 43.6 47.3 50.5 54.5 59.0 63.9 69.2 Domestic and Commercial 71.2 87.1 91.8 95.8 101.1 113.4 118.6 122.9 127.9 134.6 140.4 147.1 Electricity- 499.4 532.2 575.2 618.6 661.0 719.5 781.3 836.7 382.2 952.4 1032.5 1112.0 Industrial Minerals and Metallurgy 279.0 316.5 343.4 384.9 446.6 474.1 503.1 577.8 596.1 646.6 668.0 728.5 Metal processing 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.6 11.8 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.3 15.9 Cement 32.8 35.3 37.4 39.5 42.4 44.6 47.9 51.3 53.5 56.5 59.1 62.1 Clay products 22.8 24.4 27.8 28.9 29.7 30.8 31.7 33.0 34.3 35.5 37.5 39.1 Glass 8.3 8.8 9.9 10.9 11.1 1T.6 12.0 12.7 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.2 Chemicals 31.7 34.8 37.4 38.8 43.3 45.9 48.5 51.0 53.8 57.0 60.2 64.0 Food Industries 61.7 64.0 65.6 67.6 69.1 71.2 73-2 • 75.3 77.6 79.9 82.0 84.2 Textiles & Dyeing 6.5 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.8 9.4 9.8 10.9 11.3 12.1 12.9 13.6 Paper 22.8 22.9 24.3 25.4 27.2 28.4 28.5 33.0 35.0 35.4 37.2 39.3 Tovn gas 50.4 30.2 27.7 26.8 26.5 14.8 4.8 5-2 5.2 4-3 4.5 4.8 Coke & Briquettes 49.1 43.0 39.3 38.8 38.0 37.9 37.1 37.5 38.1 38.2 38.5 38.5 Other 170.5 167.6 165.7 165.3 167.2 174.8 182.3 191.7 202.7 214.9 228.4 242.9 Total - Industrial 746.2 765.5 797.3 846.6 921.7 955.9 991.7 1092.6 1134.8 1209.0 1258.3 1348.1 Transport 490.4 517.3 540.8 570.5 601.9 634.9 667.7 699.5 733.2 767.4 803.0 839.0 TOTAL 1838.8 1935.7 2041.8 2169.8 2326.7 2467.3 2606.6 2802.2 2932.6 3122.4 3298.1 3515.4

TABLE 2. AUSTRALIA: FUEL REQUIREMENTS OF SELECTED INDUSTRIES 1968-69 Actual and 1979-80 Estimates Compared

* • PETROLEUM BLACK BROWN FUEL Automotive Industrial Refinery ' Distillate Diesel Oil Gas (f.o.e.), NATURAL & Furnace LPG & Naphtha INDUSTRY COAL COAL Fuel Oil GAS •000 tons '000 tons •000 bbl '000 bbl •000 bbl 106therms

MINERALS AND METALLURGY 1968-69 8,017' 755 '9,572 117 1979-80 14,996 1,100 5,061 40,900 58 386 CEMENT 1968-69 850 1,689 17 1979-80 921 967 324 CL\AY PRODUCTS 1968-69 167 2,989 23 12 1979-80 111 1,331 277 PAPER 1968-69 319 540 4 1,629 1979-80 534 715 12 2,278 53 CHEMICALS 1968-69 351 26 •2,870 . 600 10 1979-80 640 26 ; 5,6.84 1,097 58 FOOD, DRINK, TOBACCO 1968-69 325 36 2,880 1979-80 333 20 3,424 TOWN GAS 1968-69 904 1,126 4,029 129 1979-80 30 644 932 ELECTRICITY (Public Supply) 1968-69 11,894 18,046 4,336 1979-80 23,170 31,330 12,690 1,015

\ 12 TABLE 3. AUSTRALIA: CONSUMPTION OF PRINCIPAL PRIMARY FUELS * IN MINERALS AND METALLURGY ALUMINIUM 1^68-69 1974-75 1979-80 Petroleum Fuels ('000 Barrels) 3,253 10,595 13,203 Natural Gas (106 Therms) 175.4 301.3 Brown Coal ('000 Tons) 1,100 1,100 1,100 IRON AND STEEL Petroleum Fuels ('000 Barrels) 5,796 11,967 15,840 Black Coal ('000 Tons) 7,492 11,330 14,330 Natural Gas (106 Therms) 80

COFFER. SILVER, LEAD, ZINC Petroleum Fuels ('000 Barrels) 727 1,500 1,650 Black Coal ('000 Tons) 286 316 566 NICKEL Petroleum Fuels ('000 Barrels) 72 1,281 1,281 * Petroleum Fuels Includes: Furnace Oil; Automotive Distillate; Industrial Diesel Fuel; Naphtha; LPG

TABLE 4. CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY: AUSTRALIA (Expressed in British Thermal Units x 1012)

>. HYDRO AND FISCAL BLACK COAL BROWN COAL PETROLEUM** NATURAL NUCLEAR TOTAL YEAR PRODUCTS WOOD BAGASSE GAS ELECTRICITY

ACTUAL 1960-61 503.0 138.3 457.7 59.1 19.3 - 15.9 1,193.3 1964-65 541.8 169.9 641.9 49.0 29.6 0.12 28.5 1,460.8 1965-66 561.3 191.7 701.6 46.7 28.9 0.15 24.1 1,554.4 1966-67 567.5 201.6 763.3 44.4 35.0 - 0.15 26.5 1,638.4 1967-68 591.7 209.4 833.4 42.0 29.7 0.17 26.2 1,732.6 1968-69 607.4 211.0 919.0 40.7 31.4 1.1 28.2 1,838.8 FORECAST 1969-70 621.4 222.8 947,6 38.5 32.0 35.0 38.4 1,935.7 1970-71 660.7 225.0 993.3 37.1 32.7 51.1 38.9 2,041.8 1971-72 701.3 234.2 1,044.5 35.7 33.4 81.1 39.6 2,169.8 1972-73 765.1 241.7 1,099.1 34.4 34.0 110.4 42.0 2,326.7 1973-74 799.6 259.1 1,161.4 33.6 34.7 135.7 43.2 2,467.3 1974-75 818.4 276.3 . 1,240.0 32.6 35.4 159.5 44.4 2,606.6 1975-76 883.3 287.5 1,335.0 31.8 36.1 180.9 47.6 2,802.2 1976-77 887.8 308.2 1,392.2 30.7 36.9 216.9 59.9 2,932.6 1977-78 951.5 315.8 1,470.8 29.8 37.7 254.7 62.1 3,122.4 1978-79 995.5 322.8 1,562.3 29.2 • 38.5 286.7 63.1 3,298.1 1979-80 1,066.2 332.2 1,661.1 28.6 | 39.3 323.7 64.3 3,515.4 ** Used as fuel.

TABLE 5. CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY IN AUSTRALIA BLACK BROWN PETROLEUM NATURAL HYDRO AND NUCLEAR PERIOD COAL COAL PRODUCTS WOOD BAGASSE GAS ELECTRICITY ('000 Tons] ('OOOTon ) ('QOOBbls ) ('OOOToi s) ('OOOTor s) (Million (Million kWh). Therms) 1960-61 19,729 15,725 81,415 3,786 2,610 4,650 1961-62 19,819 16,718 85,339 3,535 2,758 4,952 1962-63 19,941 17,766 92,250 3,424 3,540 6,653 1963-64 20,985 18,682 103,713 3,303 3,550 6,877 1964-65 21,676 19,524 114,455 3,139 4,008 1.2 8,358 1965-66 22,492 21,585 124,803 2,995 3,900 1.5 7,052 1966-67 22,781 22,510 135,464 2,850 4,727 1.5 7,758 1967-68 23,664 23,023 147,840 - 2,692 4,007 1.2 7,705 1968-69 24,321 23,118 163,050 2,614 4,248 20.2 8,279 FORECAST 1969-70 24,853 24,009 168,880 2,469 4,325 351 11,240 1970-71 26,354 23,551 177,240 2,378 4,410 542 11,417 1971-72 27,893 24,363 186,580 2,283 4,515 811 11,610 1972-73 30,411 25,300 196,400 2,192 4,600 1,104 12,289 1973-74 31,710 27,397 207,220 2,131 4,690 1,357 . 12,649 1974-75 32,387 29,404 220,530 2,081 4,780 1,595 13,019 1975-76 34,804 30,736 235,990 2,026 4,885 1,809 13,966 1976-77 34,969 33,213 247,340 1,966 4,990 1,869 17,566 1977-78 37,442 34,120 261,000 1,911 ,5,095 2,547 18,216 1978-79 39,076 34,947 276,920 1,861 5,200 2,867 18,516 1979-80 41,702 35,894 294,230 1,821 5,300 3,237 18,878 3-13

TABLE 6. AUSTRALIA: CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM FUELS Unit 103 barrels

AVIATION MOTOR POWER AVIATIOJ LIGHTING HEATING AUTOMOTIVE INDUST. FURNACE OTHER L.P.G. GASOLINE SPIRIT KERO- TURBINE KEROSINE OIL DISTILLATE DIESEL FUEL FUELS* SINE FUEL FUEL TOTAL

1960-61 (a) 730 36,325 1,495 2,209 1,785 (b) 6,647 6,892 18,783 6,549 81,415 1964-65 (a) 804 47,539 890 3,494 1,382 716 10,938 7,456 28,240 12,996 114,455 1965-66 (a) 846 49,766 799 4,042 1,336 1,038 12,659 7,399 32,593 14,325 124,803 1966-67 1,815 729 52,041 728 4,610 1,264 1,409 14,442 7,338 36,019 15,069 135,464 1967-68 2,471 662 54,622 657 5,468 1,241 1,757 16,799 7,671 40,122 16,370 147,840 1968-69 2,987 651 58,584 597 6,526 1,271 2,443 19,275 8,075 44,735 17,906 163,050

FORECAST 1969-70 2,710 670 62,210 530 7,590 1,290 3,050 20,970 8,210 44,170 17,480 168,880 1970-71 2,900 680 65,700 470 8,270 1,290 3,660 23,1?0 8,160 45,920 17,000 177,240 1971-72 3,100 710 69,150 410 9,250 1,280 4,240 25,500 8,140 48,550 16,250 186,580 1972-73 3,260 730 72,610 360 10,510 1,240 4,810 28,000 8,140 50,810 15,930 196,400 1973-74 3,490 770 75,910 270 11,950 1,180 5,170 30,530 8,020 55,170 14,760 207,220 1974-75 2,980 830 79,220 190 13,320 1,110 5,680 33,160 7,910 61,670 14,460 220,530 1975-76 3,230 900 82,200 150 14,860 1,050 6,160 35,960 7,910 68,420 15,150 235,990 1976-77 3,500 990 85,230 120 16,600 1,020 6,670 38,660 7.920 70,760 15,870 247,340 1977-78 3,560 1,090 88,080 110 18,450 980 7,180 41,640 7,960 75,340 16,610 261,000 1978-79 3,900 1,190 90,930 110 20,510 950 7,740 44,810 8,040 81,260 17,480 276,920 1979-80 4,290 1,310 93,640 110 22,750 930 8,320 48,270 8,120 88,050 18,440 294,230 (a) Included in Other Fuels. (b) Included vith Lighting Kerosine. * Includes Refinery Fuel.

TABLE 7. PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY Unit 10 Btu 1969/70 1974/75 1979/80 N.S.W. 168 200 237 VIC. 139 165 200 QLD. 133 165 208 S.A. 14-2 161 177 W.A. 180 268 363 TAS. 142 180 227 N.T. 150 330 U2 TOTAL 153 188 230 . . . — . _ . .

TABLE 8. PERCENTAGE OF B.T.U'S. SUPPLIED BY EACH PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE For each State

STATE BLACK COAL BROWN COAL PETROLEUM WOOD & BAGASSE NATURAL GAS HYDRO & NUCLEAR STATE AS % OF AUST. TOTAL 1968-9 1979-80 1968-9 1979-80 1968-9 1979-80 1968-9 1979-80 1968-9 1979-80 1968-9 1979-80 1968-9 1979-80 NSW 58.5 58.8 - - 39.8 35.8 0.9 0.4 - 3.2 0.8 1.8 41.8 38.0 VIC 2.3 - 44.2 40.8 49.8 42.1 2.7 1.1 - 15.0 1.0 1.0 26.0 23.1 QLD 34.4 35.6 - - 50.4 52.6 13.9 8.4 0.5 3.0 0.8 0.4 12.2 12.8 S.A. 30.6 19.3 - - 63.8 44.5 5.6 2.5 - 33.7 - - 8.3 7.5' W.A. 13.5 13.6 - -, 81.3 74.0 5.2 0.9 - 11.5 - - 3.2 14.1 TAS. 4.5 2.2 - - 57.8 64.6 8.3 3.8 - - 29.4 29.4 2.9 2.9 N.T. - . ' - - - • 100.0 100.0 - - - - "> - 0.6 1.6

AUST. 33.0 30.3 11.5 9.5 ., 50.0 47.3 3.9 1.9 0.1 9.2 1.5 1.8 100.0 .100.0 1 4-1

PAPER 4

REVIEW OF N.S.W. COALS, THEIR OCCURRENCE, QUALITY, AND USES

By: G. E. EDWARDS* and J. B. R0BINS0N+

SUMMARY

In 1968-69, 31.7 million tons of coal were produced in New South Wales ' (N.S.W. \ of which 10 million were exported. Although exports represent the • biggest and most rapidly expanding single market, there has also been a steady } growth in local consumption for power generation and for iron and steel pro­ duction. Projected coal production figures indicate a rapid growth of the coal industry in N.S.W. over the next 10 years to meet the demand.

The occurrence, quality, and uses of the coals from existing mines ; are reviewed on a district anda State basis; coals are classified according to ; the Australian Classification System. Reserves and potential of the N.S.W. ^ coals are discussed. Several aspects of the future of the N.S.W. coal industry I are considered.

i 1. INTRODUCTION

| The earliest recorded coal discovery in Australia was made by escaping i convicts in the banks of a creek about 36 hours^ sail north of Port Jackson 3 in the State of New South Wales (N.S.W.) in 1971. This was followed by discov- '%$x 4 j eries in the other States between 1793 and 1889. Fig. 1 shows the coal measures tf^ • •] of mining potential in Australia. f? 1 '$&* :i The coals mined in N.S.W. vary widely in both rank and type, and, having .•J been formed in different geological ages, and often under different conditions, f$from overseas coals, they cannot always be classified according to overseas I systems. This difficulty is discussed by Waters (1968). An Australian Standard, '"1^184.-1969, Classification System for Australian Hard Coal (modelled on the * Fuel Technologist, Joint Coal Board, Sydney, New South Wales. + Chief Geologist, Joint Coal Board, Sydney, New South Wales. 4-2

International Classification of Hard Coals by Type), has recently been adopted and is used in this paper to classify N.S.W. coals; this system is represented in Table 1. 2. COAL PRODUCTION IN NEW SOUTH WALES

2.1. New South Wales Coal Deposits

In N.S.W. the largest and best deposits of coal are of Permian age and are found in the Main Coal Province, which extends from Narrabri in the north to the Shoalhaven River in the south, west to Lithgow, and east of the sea­ board for an undefined distance (see Fig. 2). The most important part is the Sydney Basin, which occupies all but the northern portion of the Province. In addition to coal seam development it enjoys the advantage of having much of its coal within reasonable distance of the coast and near the main centres of population.

A wide range of coals is known in N.S.W., ranging from the anthracitic coal in the Mittagong area of the South Coast, through the range in rank of the bituminous coals, to the uneconomic brown coals in the Riverina area of south-west N.S.W. The mining districts in N.S.W. are shown in Fig. 3, and the operating collieries and the seams worked in Table 2. Fig. 3 shows six districts, grouped into four convenient areas namely:-

(a) Newcastle Area, including Newcastle and East Maitland Districts. (b) Southern Area, including South Coast and Burragorang Valley Districts, (c) Northern Area, including South Maitland District and North-West Districts. (d) Western Area.

The principal coal areas in N.S.W. and their proven recoverable reserves, in million of tons, are: -

(a) Newcastle Area (955 million tons) (i) Newcastle District, 770 (ii) East Maitland District, 185 (b) Southern Area (775 million tons) i.e. South Coast District + Burragorang Valley District. (c) Northern Area (1320 million tons) (i) South Maitland District, 180 (ii) North-West Districts, 1140' | Singleton-Muswellbrook, 1100 ; Gunnedah 4-0 Far North Coast and Ashford, Negligible. \ (d) Western Area.(250 million tons) \ (e) Total N.S.W. (3300 million tons). J t Of the N.S.W. reserves quoted above, about 1,300 million tons is predominantly [ coking coal and 2,000 million tons predominaffltly fuel coal. .'.• f Recoverable black coal reserves in Australia are currently about 5,000 j million tons, of which over 60% are in N.S.W. and about 30% in Queensland. The f recoverable reserves in Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia, and < Tasmania are generally of low quality and are mainly committed to power gener­ ation or localized industry, or are not being worked. Brown coal recoverable ' reserves are. significantly higher than black, being over 50,000 million tons. • 4-3

:- Production in N.S.W. has shown a marked increase since 1945-4-6 (see • Fig. 4)> when just over 10 million tons was produced and little was exported. • By 1968-69 exports had reached 10 million tons and total raw coal production ' was almost 32 million tons. New 'South Wales is currently responsible for almost i 75% of Australia's black coal production. Coal production from the various ^ N.S.W. districts over the last nine years is shown in Fig. 5» The increase in N.S.W. production has been accompanied by a steady rise in local consumption • for power generation and iron and steel production, the accelerated production i rate being primarily due to the accelerated export rate. * •j Analytical data on washed coals contained in the following sections are ] not claimed to be complete, but they are. certainly indicative. This is because J some coals are sold only as raw coals while many washed coals are produced in '\ varying graded size fractions. Therefore, it is difficult to obtain representat- ; ive samples, and hence analyses, on washed, coal representing the total run-of- j mine coal. Another problem is that the analyses carried out on such represent- ' ative washed coals are not consistent in extent, because the quality parameters - vary with the different markets being supplied.

2.2. Newcastle Area

4 '• • i 2.2,1. Newcastle District.-. The Newcastle Coal Measures extend in out- < crop south from Newcastle, along the. seaboard to southern Lake Macquarie, and | west to the Sugarloaf Range. The thickness of the Measures ranges from 230 ft 1 at the Sugarloaf Range, to a maximum of 1500 ft at the western side of Lake 4 Macquarie. Both coking and fuel seams are contained in the Measures; the average -j properties of the washed coals from the most important seams are listed in Table 3« T • • 4 j Coals from the Newcastle district have an average Australian Classification ] Code Number of 633(2). Many of the seams mined in the district have good coking 1 potential, as exhibited by the high B.S.S. Numbers, Gray-King Coke Types, and i vitrinite contents. These coals are used in large tonnage by the B.H.P.'s New- -J castle Steelworks, a small tonnage being exported for coking. They, are, however, I "soft" coking coals (para-bituminous, relatively low rank, and of high volatile- -| matter content) and produce fingery-,'porous, cokes,, of. low A.S.T.M.: stability J and high A.S.T.M. hardness indices when coked individually.. The sulphur content of. 0,5% is lower than for other high-V.M.. coking coals exported from N.S.W., while the Si02:Al20Q ratio in the ash is comparatively high for most of the. coking seams. Large tonnages of fuel coal are also mined to supply three power stations on Lake Maequarie and Lake Munmorah, which use the. coal as mined, at about 18$ ash: and 6% moisture. These ;coals have desirably high ash-fusion points (+i600°C), low chlorine content (about 0.O1J&. and calorific values•'" (d.a.f. basis) of about 8000 kcal/kg: (14,500 Btu/lb). The Hardgrove Grindab- ility Index of 50 indicates that they are comparatively hard for. pulverizing, even by.Australian standards; • Australian coals are.generally harder than European•fuel, coals. Proven reserves•for the district total 770 million tons.. Extensive reserves of coal can be. inferred for the area, but.much of this coal will lie at depths, in excess of: 2,000 ft.

Characteristics of the main seams, in descending, order, are summarized [below.

WALLARAH - Normally worked at 7-9 ft, with a maximum thickness of 17 ft. [Main economic development is in the Swansea-Lake Munmdrah area> where, a fuel' coal is being extracted.; ;' ^- ; 4-4 GREAT NORTHERN - Normally worked at 6-12 ft, with a maximum thickness of 24 ft. Seam occurs throughout most of the south and west of the district. Although this coal is mainly used as a fuel for power stations, a coking fraction is extracted at Wyee State Mine in the south.

FASSIFERN - This seam is subject to splitting, but is normally worked in unsplit areas at 7-14- ft. Development is mainly in the south and west of the district, for fuel purposes.

AUSTRALASIAN - Normally worked at under 10 ft but has a maximum thickness of 47 ft. Its occurrence is widespread, it is-a high-ash coking coal, and it has been worked in the past in the Cardiff area; it is not currently being worked.

WAVE HILL - Not being worked, but it is a possible future fuel coal, occurring in the south-west part of the field at up to 9 ft thick.

VICTORIA TUNNEL - Normally worked below 7 ft thickness but maximum thickness is 15 ft. Best development is in the north-eastern part of the district Seam is coking coal.

NOBBYrS - Not worked, but previously worked between 3 and 6 ft. It is a high-ash coking coal, widespread through the district..

DUDLEY - Normally worked at under 7 ft thickness, occurring on the eastern seaboard in the vicinity of Dudley. It is coking coal.

YARD - Normally worked at 2-J--5 ft thickness. Seam is widespread through the south and west and is coking coal. Not currently worked.

YOUNG WALLSEND - Normally worked at 8-10 ft with a maximum thickness of 14 ft. The seam is formed by the merging of the Nobby's and Dudley seams and occurs west and south of Wallsend. It.is coking coal.

BOREHOLE .- Normally worked at about 10 ft thickness, ranging from several inches near Lake Macquarie. to a maximum of 28 ft near Newcastle itself. Its occurrence is widespread in the east and north. In the western margin it joins with the Young Wallsend seam to form the. West Borehole seam. The seam has been a major source of coking coal for over 100 years.

Quality variations between the seams are not great in general, with isolated parameters giving non-typical results (see Table 3).

.. 2.2.2. East Maltland District.- The Tomago (East Maitland) Coal Measures directly underlie the Newcastle Coal Measures and are separated from the under­ lying Greta Coal Measures by about 4,000 ft of marine beds. The thickness of the Tomago Measures varies from about 660 ft in the west, increasing from west to east and north to south over, the area, to a maximum thickness of over 3390 ft under Newcastle. The seams outcrop in the Buchanan-East Maitland area, and extend in a narrow belt to the cpast between Newcastle and P0rt Stephens. East of Thornton the outcrop is. concealed by heavy alluvial deposits, and south of the outcrop area the measures disappear under the Newcastle Coal Measures.

Coals from the East Maitland district have an average Australian Classifi­ cation Code Number of 732( 2). (see Table 3). The seams in the Tomago Measures are a further source of "soft" coking and fuel coals, although production is predominantly for the export coking coal market. Coking quality is poorer than 4-5 for the Newcastle coals because they are of slightly higher volatile-matter content (lower rank) and lower B.S..S. No. and Gray-King Coke Type (indicated in the code number, which is a higher class and lower grouping). Sulphur content at about 0.8% is 50% higher in these coals than in the Newcastle coals. The Tomago seams are inferior to Newcastle as fuel coals, having a lower calorific value and lower ash-fusion properties (the coals are marginally "easier to pulverize). There is little quality variation between the three economic seams in the Measures.

A total of 185 million tons of recoverable reserves has been proven. Although large reserves can be inferred for the coal field, much of these are in seams less than 4 ft. thick and only a small to moderate amount can be consid­ ered as economic.

Characteristics of the three main seams, in order of depth from the surface, are:

DONALDSON - Normally worked at 4-6 ft, occurring up to a maximum of 12 ft thick at Thornton. This seam is the mos't important of the three at Thornton; elsewhere the seam is subject to rapid splitting and is worked only at East Maitland. Exploitation in the East Maitland region is restricted by the high natural sulphur, which is reduced by washing. The coal is "soft" coking. BIG BEN - Normally worked at 7 ft at East Maitland. The area of best economic development is at East Maitland; deterioration in quality, and splitting, occur in the east toward Thornton. Output from this seam is the largest of the three. Big Ben is a "soft" Poking coal. ^ ' ' * RATHLUBA - Normally worked to a maximum thickness of 6 ft in the East Maitland area, south of Rathluba. North of .Rathluba the seam splits into two units of uneconomic thickness. Rathluba is a "soft" coking coal.

Seams from the Tomago series have been intersected in the Williamtown area, near Port Stephens, and have been followed to a depth of 1500 ft as they dip towards, the coast and out to sea.

2.3. Southern Area

2.3.1. South Coast District.- The Illawarra Coal.Measures are traceable in outcrop in a southern direction from Coalcliff along, the coastal escarpment as far as Kangaroo Valley,' then west along the Valley to a point near Bundanoon, where they swing north, passing through the Burragorang Valley and Lithgow to beyond Ulan. Away from the margins the Measures dip under younger rocks, mainly of Triassic age. In the South Coast district the thickness of the Measures ranges from about 350 ft at the Macquarie Pass to about 1700 ft at Helensburg.

Four seams aire worked in the South Coast district, having an average Australian Classification Code Number of 4B33(3); see Table U. Although some coal is used for fuel purposes all four seams are "hard" coking and produc­ tion is predominantly for the Australian Iron and Steel Company's Port Kembla Steelworks (A.I.S.) and for export markets. The Bulli and Wongawilli seams are recognized as the Australian'premium coking coals and are in high demand; these coals are of low. volatile-matter content (V.M.), high B.S.S. Number, high Gray- King Coke Type, ..and low sulphur, content. The coking quality of the Bulli,seam varies, with the .vitrinite content, but the poorer coking Bulli seam coal (i.e; of low; vitrinite cqntent) can be blended with the high-vitrinite Wongawilli seam, which is an, invaluable blend component. The seams have high Grindability Indices (indicating that they are easily crushed) and relatively high ash-fusion 4-6

temperatures and calorific values; these properties are desirable for fuel purposes. Wongawilli seam coal is essentially high in ash, but is washed to yield a fraction of acceptable ash content for coking. Washing the Wongawilli seam down to 10% ash for coking-allows the further production of a middlings fuel fraction; these middlings, at 26% ash and IS moisture, are used for power generation.

Much of the shallower coal in the South Coast is now mined out and future coal reserves will have to be won, in the main, from greater depths than those currently worked.

Widespread deterioration in quality and thickness is known to occur and is likely to render a substantial part of possible reserves uneconomic; it appears, therefore, that the life of this coal district may be relatively short. Total reserves of coal, covering the coastal areas, the Burragorang Valley, and the areas in between, are 775 million tons; this is small when compared with demand.

Details pertaining to the four main seams, in order of depth, can be summarized as follows:-

BULLI - Has its best development in the northern part of the district (Coalcliff to Wollongong), where it reaches a maximum thickness of over 13 ft, decreasing to less than 1 ft of carbonaceous shale in the far south. The coal ranges from poor to premium "hard" coking coal.

BALGOWNIE - Varies in thickness from 7 ft in the northern part of the district to less than 1 ft in the southern. Economic development is restricted to the north-eastern section around Bulli. Development work is currently proceeding which will significantly increase production from previously low tonnages. . The seam is "hard" coking coal.

WONGAWILLI - Thickness ranges from 50 ft in the north-east to 20 ft in the south, averaging 30-35 ft; mining is confined to the basal 6-10 ft. Best economic potential is north of Macquarie Pass and south of the main Bulli seam development. The coal is "hard" coking,' with a middlings fuel fraction (seam is heavily banded).

T0NGARRA - Thickness varies from 4- to 22 ft and, although of widespread occurrence, is subject to splitting and has only been mined in the Avondale- Tongarra area. The seam is inherently high-ash "hard" coking coal.

Mining of the Wongawilli seam is also carried out on a limited scale in the Mittagong-Berrima area, where quality is generally poorer than along the coastal escarpment, although it varies markedly over short distances. The coal is used locally by the cement works. Near Mittagong the seam is intruded by a sill, which has devolatilized the coal to an -anthracitic condition (see Table 4-). This coal has an Australian Classification Code Number of 100(3) and although high in ash it has potential for normal fuel purposes, sintering, as a filter medium, and for briquetting; quality varies with the relative position of the intrusion, and reserves are similarly affected.

2.3.2. Burragorang Valley District.- The thickness of the Illawarra Goal Measures ranges from about 130 ft in the south-western corner of the ... district to 44-0 ft at 'Central Burragorang. The Bulli is the only seam worked in the district and is lower in rank than the coastal Bulli seam ( cf. Table 4); coal from the Burragorang Valley has a Classification Code Number of 532(2). 4-7

Mining height varies from 10 ft down to 3 ft (roof conditions are exceptionally- good), the coal being predominantly exported as a medium-volatile "hard" coking coal; some coal is used locally by A.I.S. for coking and some for fuel purposes. Coking quality is intermediate between "hard" and "soft" coking coals.

As with the South Coast district, seam deterioration is expected to reduce substantially the potential reserves of this area. On current knowledge of reserves, the expected life of the Burragorang Valley area, like that of the South Coast, is relatively short. The Bulli seam.is known to have economic potential around Bargo and Camden, and the Wongawilli seam around Bargo. Drilling operations are currently under way in the Bargo area with a view to mining development. 2.A- Northern Area

2.4.1. South Maitland District.- The Greta Coal Measures^ although widely distributed in the Hunter Valley, have two main areas of interest and exploitation-the South Maitland District and the Muswellbrook District. In the South Maitland district the Measures range from 100 to 250 ft thick and outcrop in a narrow beltj roughly horseshoe-shaped, stretching from north of Greta to Millfield in the south, and thence through Cessnock and Kurri Kurri to Farley, near West Maitland.

Two main seams are present in the Measures, the Greta and Homeville, both of which are subject to splitting. The seams have an average Australian Classification Code Number of 622(1) and are similar in quality (see Table 5), both being low in ash and high in volatile matter. Although the coal is ideally suited to town-gas manufacture, local markets are small and it is mainly sold on the export market as a "soft" coking coal, suitable for blending in small amounts.

Proven recoverable reserves are about 180 million tons, and moderately large reserves may be inferred for the deeper parts of the district. Exploitation of these reserves will depend upon the ability to mine them economically at deeper than current depths and to market coal of relatively high sulphur content.

Characteristics of the two seams can be summarized as follows:-

GRETA - This seam occurs highest in the Measures and is characterized by its low ash, high V.M., high sulphur, and relative abundance of cannel coal. Its greatest economic potential is around Cesshock, where dips are' shallow and where it reaches its maximum thickness in the unsplit state of 37 ft. -Away from Cessnock the dips' gradually increase, reaching 4-5 to 60° near Farley in the east and Greta in the west. Although essentially a gas coal, it has limited r '" "soft" coking potential in blends. '"••:"••'

HOMEVILLE - Occurs 20-120 ft below the Greta seam, has its best economic development in the Kurri Kurri area aid-usually occurs in two splits - the Upper- and Lower Homeville seams. The Uppei- seam ranges from a few inches to M\^ ft- thick'and the Lower seam from 0 to 8 ft.- Both splits are mined to produce coal similar to the Greta 'seanu •

High sulphur content is a feature of the Greta seam. In many places^ the sulphur is concentrated in the form of pyrites in the upper few .feet of the.1'}',''';; seam ("brassy tops"), which can be left untouched during mining or be removed during washing. Its presence, however, creates problems of spontaneous combustion and acid mine water. In some areas the organic sulphur ,(which cannot be reduced) rises to over 2%, ' ••.•--..-.- .' . ;u .-,.« ••-,..• :. 4-8

2.A.2. Muswellbrook Pistrict.- The Greta Coal Measures are currently -worked in two areas in the Muswellbrook district - the Muswellbrook area itself and the Balmoral area (5 to 8 miles to the south). In these areas the Measures are up to 1100 ft thick, but coal seams are restricted to the upper 300-600 ft. Total reserves for the Muswellbrook and Singleton districts are 1100 million tons, and exploration could prove significantly more coal.

Muswellbrook area. At Muswellbrook township the Measures contain seven coal seams with an aggregate thickness of between 70 and 100 ft. The Measures in this area are characterized by extensive igneous intrusion and tectonic activity, which has caused frequent cindering and seam dislocation. This has complicated the task of coal extraction, particularly by underground methods. The most important seams are listed below in descending order; they have an average Australian Classification Code Number of 622(1). The seams contain both fuel coal and "soft" coking coal of limited potential. The normal outlet is for power generation in the run-of-mine state (12% ash and 9% moisture), although spot export shipments have been made. Analyses of the seams, are listed _i#. Table 5- MUSWELLBROOK - Normally between 13 and 18 ft thick, but has reached a working thickness of 22 ft in the Muswellbrook Open-cut.

ST. HELIER'S - Lies between 14 and 28 ft below the Muswellbrook seam and. ranges from 16 to 32 ft thick.

LEWIS - Is normally 18 to 32 ft thick and lies 12-20 ft below the St. Helier's seam.

Important features of the seams are their thickness and stratigraphic proximity, enabling multi-seam working in a large open-cut operation, the biggest in N.S.W. -

Balmoral area. At Balmoral, about 80 ft of coal is contained within four principal.coal seams and associated splits, the analyses of which are shown in Table 5. Details of the seams (in order of depth from the surface) are:

BROUGHAM - Usually occurs as an Upper and a Lower split, separated by "about 5 ft. The Upper split has a maximum of 7 ft, but both average about 5 ft in thickness. The Upper split is "soft" coking coal. ..

GRASSTREES - Lies about 25 ft below the Brougham seam and.occurs in up to three splits, each averaging about 3 ft thickness over a total seam thickness of about 15 ft. Economic potential is restricted.to areas where the seam is unaplit or the splits are above average in thickness. The seam has some poten­ tial for coking as well as fuel applications.

PUXTREES;.- Is commonly 30 - AQ ft below the Grasstrees seam and occurs typically in two main splits separated by about .20- ft. The Upper split (Thiess- split) varies in thickness from 6 in. to 12 ft, averaging about 6 ft. The Lower (Puxtrees) split ranges from 8: in., to ,23 ft, at an average of .8 ft, and is "soft'" coking coal. The upper split'is essentially fuel coal:, BALMORAL - The Balmoral seam commonly lies 50-60 ft below the Puxtrees seam and consists typdrally of two main splits about 10 ft npnrf. The Upper . split (Savoy split) ranges up to a maximum of- 8 ft but is usually only Ui ft thick. The Lower split (Balmoral split) is the largest single coal bed in the ,area," averaging 29 ft thick and ranging up to 38 ft thick. Area ofx best .,'.'/. development is on the crestal part of the Muswellbrook anticline where the seam 4-9 outcrops. Essentially a fuel coal but with limited "soft" coking coal potential.

As in the Muswellbrook area, igneous intrusion is widespread and seam dislocation (due to tectonic activity) is prevalent in the Balmoral area. Coal from this area has an average Australian Classification Code Number of 711(1), the seams having potential as "soft" coking coal for blending as well as fuel applications. The only seam currently being developed is the Balmoral, which is exported for coking as a blend component. i 2.4.3. Singleton District.- The term "Singleton Coal Measures" has been applied to the Measures lying west and north-west of the South Maitland district. These Measures are equivalent in age to the Tomago and Newcastle Coal Measures but cannot be differentiated at present. The Measures occur over a wide area, extending continuously in outcrop up the Hunter and Goulburn River Valleys. They are best known in the area between Singleton and Muswellbrook, particularly in the Liddell area, where they are being mined by both open-cut and underground operations.

Quality varies in the district from fuel coal, to the "soft" coking Liddell seam which is exported; other seams have potential for both markets (see Table 5). The average Australian Classification Code Number for the district is 722(2). The fuel coals have acceptably high ash-fusion properties but are comparatively hard to pulverize. In order of depth from the surface, the characteristics of the main seams are:

BAYSWATER - Seam varies in thickness from 6 to 36 ft and is high in ash, being suitable only for power generation. Two open-cut mines under development will extract coal for the Liddell power station.

PIKES GULLY - Although not currently worked, the seam varies from 5 to • 15 ft thick. The coal has "soft" coking potential.

ARTIE'S - Average thickness is 6 ft, increasing to a maximum of 25 ft. It is not presently worked and, although heavily banded, also has "soft" coking potential.

LIDDELL - Best development is achieved in the Liddell area, where this seam ranges in the unsplit state from 12 to 34- ft in thickness. Away from Liddell it develops several splits, some of which are uneconomic. Mining is by both open-cat (Foybrook and Howick) and underground techniques (Liddell and Liddell State). Good "soft" coking coal.

BARRETT - Seam ranges in thickness from 7 to 12 ft. Although the coal is comparable in quality with the Liddell seam its potential for "soft" coking and fuel markets is marred by stone banding.

Reserves of coal in the Singleton district are large for both fuel and "soft" coking purposes. Much more prospecting is required to delineate the full potential of the district. Prospecting has been concentrated in a relative­ ly small part of the area.

2.4.4-. Gunnedah District.- The Black Jack Coal Measures of the Gunnedah district (which are correlative with the Singleton Coal Measures of the. Hunter Valley) are up to 550 ft thick and contain two principal coal seams, the Hoskisson and Melville. Proven recoverable reserves for the district are 4-P million tons at the moment and are subject to future drilling data. Character- ' istics of the seams (in descending order) are:- . ,'y 4-10

HOSKISSON - Maximum thickness 16 ft, working section up to 9 ft. Two collieries are working the seam. Quality is good, the Australian Classification Code Number being 633(1); this is good-quality "soft" coking coal of 0.5$ sulphur which could be exported without washing, being less than 10$ ash run-of- mine.

MELVILLE - Occurs 150-190 ft below the Hoskisson seam and has its best development at Gunnedah Colliery; the seam is not currently worked. At Gunnedah Colliery it occurs in two splits about 8 ft thick, 4 ft apart. It is fuel-grade coal only, and has had limited exploitation.

Current markets are mainly local ones, and for fuel purposes. The fact that this.district is some 200 miles from the port of Newcastle is a cost deterrent in exploitation for export.

Although coal measures equivalent in age to the Greta Measures are present in the district, commercial exploitation has been restricted to the Werris Creek area. Within a small basin, the 500 ft of Werris Creek Coal Measures contain at least three coal seams, one of which is over-10 ft thick and has been worked in a small colliery. The product is low-ash fuel coal of about 33% V.M. (d.m.m.f.Est.).

2.4.5. Ashford and Far North Coast Districts.- Recoverable reserves in these districts are negligible, and drilling to date has been sparse and confined to small areas. The coal can only be classified as Class 5 according to the Australian Classification System, owing to lack of adequate data.

Ashford district. The. Ashford Coal Measures, which outcrop inter­ mittently in a narrow strip between Bonshaw and Arrawatta, 10 'miles north of Inverell, are best known at Ashford, where a small open-cut mine supplies a local power station. The meaaures are about 550 ft thick in this locality but contain only one seam of economic importance, the Ashford seam.

Where mined, this seam exhibits considerable variation in thickness and gradient, ranging from 10 to 55 ft thick over a distance of only 15 chains, with dips of from 20 to 40 degrees. Data on the raw coal used for power gener­ ation indicate an average of 17$ ash, 25$ V.M.., 8,500 kcal/kg calorific value (d*a.f,), easy grinding properties, and low sulphur content, .

Far North Coast district. The only mining, in the Clarence Basin area is carried out.in a small pocket of coal at Nymboida,. in the south-western corner of the basin. The Nymboida Coal Measures are of Triassic age, and, although about 1000 ft thick, contain only one economic coal seam. This is the Farquhar's Creek seam, which is up to 6 ft thick, with a mined section in places of only; about 2 ft; it is worked in a small colliery supplying a power station in Grafton. The run-of-mine coal used here has an approximate analysis of 18$ ash, 25$ V.M., arid 8,550 kcal/kg calorific value (d.a.f.).

The Walloon Coal Measures, of Jurassic age, also occur in the Clarence Basin and have been worked on a small scale in the past. .The seams are . characteristically high in ash and have no commercial significance at present.

2.5. Lithgow Area

The Illawarra Coal Measures of the Lithgow District range in thickness from about 200 ft on the western edge of the outcrop area to about 570 ft at Glun Davis. Collieries in the. area :are found in a relatively narrow belt 4-11 running north-east from the Grose Valley through Litiigov and Wallerawang to Ulan.

Two main, seams are worked, the' Katoomba and the Lithgow. The Lithgow has extensive development and is believed to extend into the Ulan district where it is represented by a seam up to 4-0 ft thickj the Ulan is shown as a separate seam in Table 6. Average Australian Classification Code Number for the seams is 711(3), indicating that the coal is low rank, poor coking coal. The coal has comparatively high ash-fusion properties and calorific value and is comparatively easy to crush, making it a good fuel coal. In fact, raw coal production (at an average of 14$ ash and 9% moisture) is almost entirely for power generation, cement manufacture, and general non-coking purposes. The coal has limited "soft" coking potential but some has been sold for coking in blends.

The properties of the main seams (listed in Table 6) are:

KATOOMBA - Occurs.at the top of the Measures and ranges in thickness from 1 to 6 ft, normally being 5 ft. Although differing in chemical charact­ eristics, it is probably correlative with the Bulli seam. It is only worked at present in the Grose Valley.

LITHGOW - Lies 230-470 ft below the Katoomba seam, near the bottom of the Measures. Thickness ranges from 3. to 23 ft, normal working thickness being about 6 ft. The seam is worked extensively.

Recoverable reserves for the area total 250 million tons, but knowledge of the field is largely confined to outcrop areas; large reserves may be inferred for the deeper parts of the area. Plans have recently been announced for ex­ tensive exploitation of the seams outcropping around Newnes, in the Wolgan Valley.

2.6. Miscellaneous Areas

Two other areas are known where coal occurs, but neither is being worked at the moment. Their presence is recorded to complete the survey of significant coal areas in N.S.W. '

2.6.1. Gloucester-Stroud Area.- Permian coal measures occur in'a narrow basin in the Gloucester-Stroud'Area. These beds contain the Craven and Avon Coal Measures. The Craven Coal Measures are about 2300 ft thick and contain at least 30 coal seams, ranging in thickness up to 9 ft. The Avon Coal Measures, some 220 ft below the Craven Coal Measures, are about 1900 ft thick and contain at least 15 coal seams ranging in thickness from 2 to 8 ft. Severe structural disturbance in the area, with consequent steep dips and seam dis­ location, has restricted development and few data are available oh the quality of the coal seams. These seams have been reported to vary from sub-bituminous to anthracitic.

2.6.2. Oaklahds-Coorabin Area.- CoorabinCoal Measures of Permian age occur in the Oaklands-Coorabin area of the Riverina. The Measures are at least 370 ft thick and contain up to three coal seams ranging in thickness from 11 to 30 ft.

The coal, which is sub-bituminous in rank, has been worked in the past by a small colliery at Coorabin, but little prospecting has been carried..out. to date. The presence of heavily water-charged beds overlying the coal seams. • 4-12

complicating mining operations, together with the low rank of the coal, suggest that the area will be of little economic significance for some time to come.

3., THE FUTURE

3.1. Exploration

Fig.' 2, which shows the intensity of prospecting in the Main Coal Province, indicates that knowledge of coal seams is restricted in the main to the margins of the coal basins, i.e. adjacent to the long-established areas of black coal mining in N.S.W. Less is known of the deeper areas where the Coal Measures are concealed under younger rocks.

Many areas.may well contain large areas of saleable coal, and their potential has been indicated by a few bores sunk in the relatively distant past. Obviously, the more favourable areas for future exploration are those about which less is known, i.e. those areas of less exploitation; Fig. 2 shows the areas with seams occurring at depths less than 2,000 ft. These" areas will yield in the main "soft" coking and fuel coals.

3.2. Production

Projected production rates and local and. export demands for coal to the year 1979-80 are shown in Fig. '4. In the. future, production from the\ individual areas in N.S.W. is expected to follow the same relative trends as in' recent years (see Fig. 5).

3.3. Transport

A serious short-term obstacle to an increase in export shipments is the present lack of surplus ship loading capacity. - Proposals have been received for two off-shore loaders, one at Port Stephens and the other near Wollongong. Certainly there is an urgent need to study prospective sites for both natural harbours and off-shore loaders. Such.studiesshould.be related to shipping trends towards larger-capacity vessels (overseas reports, quote a minimum of 100,000 tons and possible future capacity as high as 200,000 tons), which cannot, however, be accommodated with the port facilities currently available..

Development of future coal, mining areas, most, of which are comparatively far. inland, will require economic transport to the seaboard* . This calls for the development in N.S..W. of the unit-train concept, successfully employed in Central Queensland. Transport costs, will be.a large proportion of the f.o.b. price of inland coal's in the future, amounting-.in some cases to several. times the mining cost. Under such conditions pipeline(transportation of coal may be an economic alternative to rail haulage over long distances.

3*4-«. Markets

Expected market requirements to the" year ..19-79-80 arevindicated in Fig.. 4 for exports (coking coal plus fuel coal), NIS.W. power • generation, and iron and • steel production in N.S.W.

Coking coals of comparatively high rank are relatively scarce and are currently in great and increasing demand throughout the world. ..Failure to satisfy the market must eventually, increase the. demand for the medium-rank coals. The conditions of. a seller's market, must, result in higher prices being negotiated for high- and' medium- rank Australian coking coals, ' The bulk of N.S;W. coals 4-13 of coking potential are para-bituminous and fall into the medium- or low- rank classification, i.e. Classes 5* 6, and 7 in the Australian Classification System; the. high-rank coals fall into Classes 3, 4A, and 4B, being mainly meta-bituminous. It appears that in the relatively short-term future the ex­ porters currently heavily biased towards Japan, will be wooed by buyers from all sections of Continental Europe and Great Britain.

Total exports from-N.S.W. are currently about 15 million tons per annum and are expected to increase to 40 million tons by 1980 and to 65 million tons by 1990.

Local steel requirements of 7*7 million tons in 1969 are expected to increase to 14 million tons per annum by 1980 and to 30 million tons per annum by the turn of the century.

There are indications that the export market will also increase for fuel coals, although not at the same rate as for coking coals. This may well change the practice in current fuel coal production, and the possibility of producing both coking and fuel fractions from particular coals may well receive more consideration. Such practice could take advantage of comparatively higher prices for coking coals. In addition, a coking coal could be washed to a lower ash than normal, if a fuel market were available for the middlings and the premium for the better coking grade were attractive. Two good, and differing, examples of this technique are the operations at Huntley Colliery in the South Coast district and at Wyee State Mine in the Newcastle district. Local con­ sumption of fuel coal for power generation should increase from its current level of about 7 million tons per annum to about 15 million tons by 1920.

Perhaps the greatest interest in new future markets lies in the production of char.

4. CONCLUSION

N.S.W. coals vary markedly with regard to their occurrence, quality, and uses. The range of washed coals available is indicated by the average Australian Classification Code Numbers quoted below for the coals from the main districts.

1. Newcastle Area (a) Newcastle District 633(2) (b) East Maitland District 732(2)

2. Southern Area (a) South Coast District 4B33(3) (b) Burragorang Valley District ' 532(2) (c) Anthracitic coal 100(3) : 3. Northern Area (a) South Maitland District 622(1) (b) Muswellbrook District (i) Muswellbrook Area 622(1) (ii) Balmoral Area 711(1) (c) Singleton District 722(2) (d) Gunnedah District 633(1) (e) Far North Coast and Ashford Districts Class 5

4. Western Area 711(3) A-U

Substantial increases in market demands, particularly for export, mil require a significant amornt of exploration and development of transport and shipping facilities. The foreseeable future for the N.S.W. coal industry r is one of interest, growth, and prosperity.

5. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors are grateful to fellow officers (particularly Mr. F. Bill) for help in collating the information contained in the paper, and to the Joint Coal Board for approving its publication.

6.. REFERENCES (1) BROWN, H.R., CLARK,. M.C., and DURIE, R.A-. Characteristics of the ashes from Australian coals. CSIRO Div. Coal Res., Tech. Comm. 33, Oct. 1959. (2) CSIRO. Division of Coal Research. Various.Locations Reports: • (3) GARTLAND, C.F., and KEITH, G.N. Australian'sources and consumption of fuel in the 1970's. Instn..- Engrs. Aust., Engng Conf., Melbourne, March, 1970.

(4) HANLON, F.N. The geology of N.S.W.. coalfields. Fifth Empire Mining and Metallurgical Congress. Vol. VI. (5) JOINT COAL BOARD. Annual Report, 1968-9. (6) AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR TESTING MATERIALS,-1964.. A.S.T.M. Standards, part 19, Gaseous fuelsj coal and coke. - A.S.T.M. Designation D294-64, "Tumbler test for coke". . (7) GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF/AUSTRALIA. The geology of New South Wales. Ed. G. H. Packham. J. Geol. Soc. Aust., 1969, -16, vPart 1. (8) STANDARDS ASSOCIATION OF AUSTRALIA, 1955. A report on the coal resources of the Commonwealth of Australia. Power Survey Report- PS.3. (9) STANDARDS ASSOCIATION OF AUSTRALIA, 1969. Australian Standard K184-1969, Classification system for Australian hard coal. (10) STANDING COMMITTEE ON COALFIELD GEOLOGY OF NEW SOUTH WALES. Interim publication of decisions. 5th Sept., 1969. (11) UNITED NATIONS, 1956. International classification of hard coals by type. (12) WATERS, P. L. The. selection of Australian coals for various industrial uses. . 7th World Power Conf., Moscow, 1968. Section A2, Paper 126. 4-15

TABLE 2, COAL MINES AND THE SEAMS CURRENTLY BEING WORKED IN NEW SOUTH WALES (Underground and Open-Cut Mines) NEWCASTLE AREA (a) Newcastle District Colliery Seam Colliery Seam Avaba State Great Northern Northern 0/c. Great Northern Belmont Fassifern Stockrington No.2 Borehole (West Borehill Victoria Tunnel Borehole) Burwood Borehole Stockton Borehole Young Wallsend Dudley Wallamaine 0/c. Wallarah Victoria Tunnel Wallarah • Wallarah Chain Valley Great Northern Wallsend Borehole Young Wallsend Wallarah Wallsend Borehole Gretley Young Wallsend No.2 Young Wallsend John Darling Victoria Tunnel Wallsend 0/c. Young Wallsend Lambton Dudley Wyee State Great Northern Mt. Sugarloaf Great Northern Munmorah State Great Northern (b) East Maitland District Newstan Borehole (West Bloomfield Big Ben Borehole) Bloomfield 0/c. Big Ben and / Donaldson's Newvale No.1 Great Northern Newvale No.2 Great Northern Buchanan Maitland Big Ben Northern Fassifern Dagworth Greta Rathluba Maitland Greta Rathluba Delta No.1 Rathluba SOUTHERN AREA (a) South Coast District Colliery Seam Colliery Seam Appin Bulli North Bulli Bulli Avondale Wongawilli and South Bulli Bulli Tongarra Balgownie Berrima Wongawilli South Clifton Bulli Bulli Bulli and Southern Extended Wongawilli Balgownie Tom Thumb Bulli Bulli Main Bulli Wongawilli Bulli Coal Cliff Bulli Wongawilli Corrimal Bulli Dombarton Wongawilli (b) Burragorang Valley District Huntley Wongawilli Brimstone Bulli Tongarra Brimstone No.2 Bulli Kemira Bulli Nattai Bulli Bulli Mt. Alexander Wongawilli Oakdale Bulli (heat affected) Valley Bulli Mt. Kembla Bulli Wollondilly Bulli Mt. Waratah. Wongawilli Wollondilly : Bulli (heat affected) Extended Metropolitan ,: Bulli Nebo Wongawilli TABLE 2. (Continued) CESSNOCK AREA (a) South Maitland District (b) North-West District Colliery Seam Colliery Seam Aberdare East Greta Ashford 0/c. Ashford Aberdare North Greta Ayrdale Tangorin Aberdare No.7 0/c. Greta. Bayswater No.2 0/c Balmoral Ayrfield No.3 Greta Foybrook No.1 Liddell Bellbird. Greta Foybrook 0/c. Liddell Bellbird 0/c. Greta Pikes Gully Hebburn No.2 Greta Gunnedah Hoskisson Homevilie Howick 0/c. Barrett Maitland Main • Greta •Liddell Liddell Pelton Greta IAddell State Liddell Muswellbrook No.1 Lewis Muswellbrook No.3 0/c. Lewis St. Helier's Nymboida Farquhars Creek Preston Extended Hoskisson Swamp Creek Bayswater Wambo Wambo WESTERN AREA . . •Western'District Colliery Seam • Blue Mountains Lithgow Charbon Lithgow Eastern Main .Lithgow Hartley Main No,,U Katoomba Invincible Lithgow Ivanhoe No.2 Lithgow Kandos No,3 Lithgow Lithgow Valley Lithgow Newcom Lithgow Ulan Ulan "Wallerawang Lithgow Western Main Lithgow

AUSTRALIAN STANDARD. KIBt-1963 CLASSIFICATDN SYSTEM FOR AUSTRALIAN HARD COAL

COAL CLASS COAL GROUP COAL SUB-CROUP ASH NUMBER

Clan H VolaUa Miller Groit CalorifeVaaa) Group BS Crucible Sub-group Cray King Aid %Asb Number (dmml E.I baiil) (dal Bam) - Mai/kg Number Swoting Humbor Number Cok. Type Member (dry bails]

1 •S10 0 0-i 0 A (0) > >H> - U 1 1 - 1 1 B-0 ID >.-» ) >M - JO I It-4 1 E-G W >t-w A _ .' _ 1 ti-6 3 "LriitJ (1) >«-« ' 4B >a -"it ~ 4 _ — —'— ...«L « _ .*_ U) >»-» 5 , »Jt - 11 S ..9r.. .. 15) >20-J4 6 >1J (33-01* >IOM (6) >J4-M _ .. • ,S.:..1.~~ >3J (Jl-W* >7650 -»0tO (7) > »-32 2_ .... ' "'"• % »13 135-SO)* >«7»0 — 7850 (•) >37" • 9 >» («-»)• > 6470 - «7S0 HBIES 1 Volatile Halter (dmml Eat basii):- " VM. :«mml Est tai;i) . 100 [v.M'dry basis) - 0,1. Alb (dry ba»llj] 100-1.1. Alb (dry bam) l.°( )* denotes indicaHvoleyot of rotatlle matter only. classification by gross catorHic value lor these low claim 1. Alt analyses according to current Australian Standard AS K1S2. Methods for the Analysis and Tastng ot Coal and Coke. Parti l-*5, ai appropriate. 4. CLASSIFICATION COOE NUMBER • CLASS NUMBER GROUP NUMBER SUB-GROUP NUMBER (ASH NUMBER) (or oiimcU:- CLASSIFICATION CODE NUMBER 834 (a) denote! a coat reported to navotho following cnaracteratici — Vnlatil* Matter (dmml Eit) - 37%. Grosl Calorific Value - «.J60 kcal/gm, BS. Crucible Smiting Number -1, Gray King Cob. Typa-Os. Aah (dry basil) - 16.1% TABLE 1 TABLE 3. INDICATIVE ANALYSES OF WASHED COALS FROM THE NEWCASTLE AREA

DISTRICT NEWCASTLE EAST MAITLAND

SEAM EH § O NAME o 1 1 1 in P a g S M •£ 83 I pa 1 ANALYSES f> Inherent Moisture (ad) 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.2 3.3 2.3 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.5 % Ash (db) 11.0 10.4 11.6 13.6 15.5 11.5 15.5 10.0 7.6 12.4 8.0 11.6 10.1 9.0 9.4 % Mineral Matter (db) 12.1 12.4 12.7* 14.6 16.3 12.4 16.6 11.0 8.6 14.5 8.9 12.7 11.1* 10.0* 10.5* St Volatile Matter (db) 31.7 32.2 33.0 32.5 31.9 34.2 32.1 33.8 35.6 34.6 35.8 33.4 35.6 36.2 37.8 $ Volatile Matter (dmmf) 34.5 34.8 37.8* 37.5 37.6 38.4 37.6 37.1 38.0 37.2 39.0 37.2 38.9* 39.2* 41.1* % Fixed Carbon,(db) 57.3 56.0 55.4 53.5 52.3 54.1 52.2 55.9 56.7 52.7 56.0 54.8 54.3 54.8 52.8 JJ'Sulphur (db) 0.4 0.4 0.5 • 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 % Phosphorus (db) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0;02 0.01 0.07 0.05 0.10 0.04 0.08 O.04 0.01 0.01 0.06 Calorific Value (daf) - Btu/lb 14480 14360 14210 14710 14600 I49OO 14920 14740 14410 14950 14970 14660 14640 14670 14630 - k cals/kgm 8040 7980 : 7890 8170 8110 8280 8290 3190 8010 8310 8320 8140 8130 8150 8130 B.S. Swelling Number Index 2* 2 1 1£ 6* 7 6 7* 6 5 6 5 5

Gray-King Coke Type D C C G1-G2 C G* G^ Go G G G Ultimate Analysis C (dmmf) 84.2 84.4 85.1 83.7 84.9 84.8 84.6 84.8 85.O 84.7 84.6 H (dmmf) 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.4 5-5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.4 N (dmmf) 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.1 S (dmmf) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 . C (dmmf) 8.8 7.1. 9.1 7.2 7.0 7.4 7.4 6.6 6.9 8.0 Analysis of Ash % SiOo 59.6 57.5 63.9 78.1 78.2 70.1 76.0 58.7 48.6 64.2 57.2 64.7 56.1 56.8 53.0 20.2 29.6 30.8 **& 35.2 34.0 26.8 12.6 13.7 12.9 15.7 24.9 29.7 20.5 27.9 23.1 SJFeoOj 2.4 3.8 2.7 3.0 2.1 3-7 2.1 3.9 4.2 5.4 7.2 3.7 16.5 3.8 4.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.9 4.1 4.6 1.5 2.7 1.9 1.8 1.1 2.4 r 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0. 1.1 Petrograohic Analysis^ % Vitrinite 38 54 66 65 68 56 64 67 60 60 60 % Semi-Inertinite . +,$ Inertinite 48 22 14 7 11 10 17 15 15 19 18 % Exinite 7 20 11 10 15 29 13 14 16 15 15 %t Minerals 7 5 9 19 6 6 7 3 10 5 8 •Hardgrove Grindabilitv Index 48 48 53 56 60 50 51 54 52 •"Ash-Fusion Properties Flow Temp. (°C) r" +1600 +1600 1500 140C 1440 1480 +1600 +1400 +1600 +1600 +1600 AUSTRAT.TftN CUSSIFIl'JlTION CODE NUKBER 611(2) 711(2) 633(3) 711(3) 643(2) 644(3) 633(2) 734(1) 633(3) 621(2) 632(2) 632(2) 721(2) 643(1) 633(2)

NOTES: • * denotes estimated, not determined. 0 $ by volume. TABLE 4. INDICATIVE ANALYSES OF WASHED COALS FROM THE SOUTHERN AREA

i • DISTRICT SOUTH COAST SOUTH COAST BURRAGORANG VALLEY TOTAL WONGAWILLI SEAM NAME BULLI BALGOWNIE WONGAWILLI TONGARRA DISTRIC1 (heat affected) BULLI (AVE.) - ANALYSES % Inherent Moisture (ad) 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 2.0 1.7 .% Ash (db) : 10.0 12.5 1-3.5 16.5 13.1 16.0 8.4 % Mineral Matter (db) 11.5 13.8* 14.7 18.2* 14.6 - 9.2* % Volatile Matter (db) 21.2 23.0 24.0 23.1 22.8 6.8 26.8 % Volatile Matter (dmmf)22.7 25.2* 26.8 25.4* 25.0 7.4* 28.6* % Fixed Carbon (db) 68.9 64.5 62,5 60.4 64.1 77.2 64.8 % Sulphur (db) 0.3 0.4" 0.5 0.6 0^5 0.6 0.4 # Phosphorus (db) 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.06 i Calorific Value (daf) - , Btu/lb 15320 15400 15910 14830 15360 15050 15220 kcalsAgm 8510 856O 8840 8240 8540 8360 8460 B. S. Swelling Number Index 5 6 4 3* 6 0 5 Gray-King Coke Type.'. F G6 F G A F G2 V1 2 Ultimate Analysis C (dmmf) • 89.9 88.2 88.9 — 89.O 91.7 86.0 H (dmmf) 4.8 5.2 5.1 — 5.0 3.2 5.1 N (dmmf) 1.6 1.8 1.6 — 1.7 2.0 1.8 S (dmmf) 0.4 0.6 0.6 — 0.5 0.7 0.4 0 (dmmf) 3.6 4.0 4.0 —• 3.9 2.4 7.0 Analysis of Ash $ Si02 52.0 60.0 66.9 63.5 60.6 69.3 52.3 % AI2O3 37.1 28.0 22.9 ' 25.0 28.3 23.4 34.6 : % Fe203 3.6 6.1 5.9 8,2 6.0 1.3 3.0 % CaO 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.3 2.1 % Mgo : 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.1 Petroeraphic Analysis % Vitrinite ' ' 40 51 72 40 51 • % Semi-Inertinite + % Inertinite 53 43 18 51 41 % Exinite 1 0 2 0 1 % Minerals 5 6 8 9 7 - Hardgrove Grindability Index 7C - 70 65 68 37 Ash-Fusion Properties - Flow Temp, (°C) +160C : 1300 i 1550 • 1450 1500 ) 1550 +1600 AUSTRALIAN CLASSIFICATION CODE NUMBER AA32(2) 4B33(3) 4B44(3) 4E22(4) 4B33(3), 100(3) 532(2) Note:* dene tes estimate*d , not delbermined . _. TABLE 5. INDICATIVE ANALYSES OF WASHED COALS FROM THE NORTHERN AREA

—•—• — u ... , i 4-20 TABLE 6. INDICATIVE ANALYSES OF WASHED COALS FROM THE LITHGOW AREA DISTRICT LITHGOW

SEAM NAME KATOCMBA LITHGOW ULAN TOTAL DISTRICT (AVE.)

ANALYSES % Inherent Moisture (ad) 2.4 3.6 4.5 3.5 % Ash (db) 15.5 13.9 10.2 13.2 % Mineral Matter (db) — — - — % Volatile Matter (db) 27.0 31.2 32.7 30,3 % Volatile Matter (dmmf) 30.8* 33.2* 35.7* 33.2 % Fixed Carbon (db) 57.5 54.9 54.1 55.5 % Sulphur (db) 0.6 0.6 1.4 0.9 % Phosphorus (db) 0.06 ' 0.01 — 0.03 Calorific Value (daf) - Btu/lb 1884-0 14580 14430 14497 - kcals/kgm 8040 8100 8020 8050 B.S.Swelling Number Index 1 '2 1 1 Gray^King Coke Type B D B C Analysis of Ash % Si02 61.1 60.7 — 60.9 %A1203 34.2 31.4 — 32.8 % Fe203 2.1 1.6 - 1.9 J % CaO 0.4 0.6 — 0.5 #MgO 0.14 0.3 — 0.2 Hardgrove Grindability Ind ex 50 54 — 52 Ash-Fusion Properties Flow Temp. (°C) +1600 +1600 - +1600 AUSTRALIAN CLASSIFICATION CODE NUMBER 511(3) 611(3) 711(2) 711(3) NOTE: t * .denotes est imated, not determined.

MAP OF AUSTRALIA Showing COAL MEASURES REFERENCE::'. i Black Coal (of Mining Potential) shown thus Brown Coall do ) do GLOUCESTER

QUEENSLAND

\f oTenltrTaUS / °Ashford .

/•More Grafton o o fnverell Glen Innes oWatgrtt /

/ o Narrabril NORTH WEST "Armidal*

^k 0Gunnedah » 'Tjmworlh

» °WerrisCH oNyngan DISTRICT

Gloucester oDubbo A. °Mu5wtllbrook SOUTH ^°Gulgi WESTERN MAITLAND DISTRICT .^y °Mud9«« / T^^MaiUa«En DISTRICT I I NEWCASTLE Parkes NEWCASTLE .Sgjay«y "LITHGCW ^* ^AKatoomba DISTRICT" »YPNEr BURRAGORANG VALLEX y/j TJTSTRICT Mittaoong. gj,WOLLONGONG

C\?tamunifra Goulburn SOUTH COAST AREAS OF MEDIUM TO HIGH o Wag 9' *ws*rwcr I PROSPECTING iNTENSITY ° Oakland* 0 AREAS OF LOW PROSPECTING INTENSITY

I——*SS35^—" PERMIAN BEDS CONTAINING COAL SEAMS

2000' ISOPACH OF POST PEPMIAN BEDS { APPROX.)

SCAU OF MILES o 10 » » 40 so » IOO

SYDNEY BASIN EXTENT OF PROSPECTING OF PERMIAN FIG. 3 N.S.W. COAL DISTRICTS SCALE 1:500,000 COAL MEASURES

FIG. 2 4-22

eo •o RAW COAL I PRODUCTION / » / -75 / T& 1 •70 t (5 -u 1 t FIG, 4 / / / 55 rOAl INDUSTRY GROWTH / •55 IfO KfeW SOUTH WALES. / t*»Q*T SO .\CTUIU. OtMfcHO* IM5-46 TO W*-^» / OVEMCAS •50 (STIMATCD DEMANDS I9W-TO TO N79-IQ / MOONS 45 4% MILLIONS OF OF TONS / TONS 40 / / ' 40 15 / y CONSUMPTION / S IN.H&tt 35 » 35 35 m 30 30 "^J ZLCCmiCITV 15 15 / „-'__-l»ON _s^~Z^^—~^''~^ / ^r-* "OITUL IO a ^—^ ^ S 3 5 o- ——=—rr^^^ ^ YEAR 5-1

PAPER 5

THE COAL RESOURCES OF QUEENSLAND

By: "" W. L. HAWTHORNE.*

SUMMARY

Queensland has abundant coals of diverse ranks and types. The known reserves are distributed over much of the eastern part of the State. Explora­ tion in the Central Queensland fields, where the economically important Permian coals I occur,. is incomplete; but, even at this stage, it is known that large quantities of extractable coal suitable for coke production, power generation, chemical industries, or other industrial processes are present in this area. In addition to these coals, large reserves of Permian age are believed to exist in the Galilee Basin of Central Queensland. Triassic coals occur in several localities in south-east and central Queensland. These coals are now used for power generation but £ me are suitable for production of coke, Jurassic coals, which occur over a largo area, are high-volatile coals suitable for chemical industries. Cretaceous coals of limited economic significance occur in the Burrum and Styx coalfields near the coast.

Most of the coal required for a considerable time to come could be pro­ duced from open-cut and shallow underground mines. However, because of the distribution of mining titles in Central Queensland, there are already a number of instances of experimental mining at medium depth. Success in those ventures would allow estimates of reserves considered to be extractable to be extended with greater confidence. Even at th<=>. present time, however, known reserves are sufficient to meet export commitments as well as domestic requirements for a long period, even allowing for a large increase in domestic consumption.

1. INTRODUCTION ......

Until about 10 years ago the coal mining industry in Queensland was,essen­ tially a service industry supplying local demands, but'towards the end of the

Assistand Chief Government Geologist, Geological Survey;-of-:Queensland. 5-2

1950's what appeared to be a dying industry was rejuvenated by the development of an export trade in coking coal. From that time on, coal mining we'ht from strength to strength and it is now one of the most important industries bring­ ing development to the State. Exploration associated with this rejuvenation of coal mining has resulted in a much greater knowledge of our resources, which are here considered in relation to the possible requirements for coal during the next 20 years. 2. HISTORY

Coal was first discovered in Australia in 1827, but mining did not commence till much later. In i'84.3" the Hunter River Steam Navigation Company provided a market for a coal mining industry by threatening to abandon its steamer service to the Moreton Bay Settlement unless coal could be obtained there. The first mine in Queensland was'opened at Redbank, in the Ipswich coal­ field, to supply this market. *

By the end of the nineteenth century, coal mining was well established., not only at Ipswich, but also in the Burrum, Rosewood-Walloon, Darling Downs, \ Styx, and Blair Athol Districts. Shortly afterwards the Baralaba and Mt. Mulligan fields also commenced production.

Although the presence of coal at Callideand in the Bowen Basin had been known before the turn of the century, no serious attempt was made at that time to mine it. The explanation is simple. Coal mined in Queensland at that time and indeed until little more than a decade ,-p depended entirely on local markets— mainly the railways, electric power stations, gas companies, and small factories. Unless such a market existed there was no outlet for coal, and it is now a matter of history that the first mines opened in the Blackwater District were forced to close for want of a market.

The first serious attempt to sell Queensland coal on other than a local market was the export of Callide coal to Victoria during the early post-war period, from 1949 to 1958. The development of the Japanese export market commenc­ ed when Kianga and, later, Moura coal was exported by Thiess Brothers in 1958. Concurrently with the expansion of coking coal exports to Japan, the demand for coal for power generation has risen and the use of coal by the. railways and gas companies has almost ceased.

Exciting, possibilities for the use of coal in mineral processing, steel industries, chemical processes, and manufacturing industries lie ahead. New processes and the material requirements for new industries will undoubtedly bring further changes to the coal marketing pattern. The new patterns of demand have already brought significant changes to the coal industry in Queensland, and it is in the light of these known changes 'and those that can be anticipated in the next 20 years that I propose to examine Queensland's coal resources at this conference.

3. EXTENT OF QUEENSLAND'S COAL RESOURCES

I have chosen to do this for several reasons. In the first instance, much more expl:.'^.tion remains to be done in many areas before a reliable , assessment of; ,x"* total recoverable reserves will be possible. Indeed, in some areas, such,as the. central Galilee Basin and the Eastern Bowen Basin, we have not yet commenced exploration. Both of these areas almost certainly contain large quantities of coal, some of which may be coking coal, and consequently we should be" under-estimating; our; resources: if we were to quote only the present known total reserves. In.the"second^instance, there is little to be gained by quoting total in situ reserves in various areas, if we do not know what the mining recovery factor will be or what washing discard will be needed to meet some specification which has not yet been decided. Certainly, however, the known reseVves, even at the present time, give us cause to be optimistic about the future, not only of our coal industry but also of secondary industries based on coal.

In the meanwhile, companies are pushing ahead with exploration at a staggering rate and it is difficult to believe that, only 10 years ago, interest in coal was virtually non-existent and it was generally believed that the in­ dustry was doomed.

What now are the important factors to be considered regarding our coal resources in relation to the next 20 years? They are: (a) the general extent of Queensland's coal measures; (b) the markets for which the coals are destined,' and (c) the specific reserves available to meet these demands.

It will be possible in this paper to deal only superficially with these three factors, each of which has a major bearing on the capacity of our coal resources to supply our needs during not only the period under review but also in the future.

4. QUEENSLAND'S COAL MEASURES

The productive or potentially productive coal measures range in age from "\ Permian to Cretaceous. Lower-rank coals are not considered here, although they have been investigated from time to time and some may yet be utilized.

"The properties of most of these coals have been treated in detail in numerous pap-ers by the Coal Research Laboratory of C.S.I.R.O., the Queensland Coal Board, the\Geological Survey of Queensland, and others; and it is proposed to deal with thenTin general terms only in this paper (see Table 1).

The Permian coal"measures are the most important and also the most ex­ tensive. They occur in the^Bqwen and Galilee Basins and in some smaller areas near the coast. There are fiver-seeasonably distinct ages of Permian coals. Of -these, the oldest are the Reid^Dome Beds and their approximate equivalents in the Galilee and East Bowen Basins, which are not yet being worked. Next come the Collinsville and Blair Athol Coai^Measures and their approximate equivalents. The third oldest, which occur haar the top of the mainly marine . section, are the German Creek Coal Measures and^o-ther beds of similar age. Within the fresh-water Upper Permian sequence there^are two important coal- bearing units, separated by a partly tuffaceous and siliceous interval. Coals of Permian age are attractive to prospectors seeking coal for most purposes.

These coals, after treatment, yield a product ranging from sub-bituminous coal to rare anthracite. A large proportion of the Bowen Basin would yield • high- to low- volatile bituminous coals with coking properties which render .them suitable for inclusion in blends for production of high-grade metallurgical•coke . or a variety of other usesi The coals of the Galilee Basin are not yet suffici­ ently well known to allow any definitive statement of properties. It seems possible that the younger coals in this area will not be of high "enough rank to be used for coke production, but the older coals may be. Without any .doubt, however, there will be proved to exist large quantities of coal which, if not ... x suitable for coke production, will be suitable for a range of.uses-including -' power generation, steelmaking, ^chemicals, and oil from coal, industries, and others. 5-4

Triassic coal measures, which before the recent development of the coking coal export trade were the most important source of coal production, occur in the south-eastern corner of the State in the Moreton Basin and in Central Queensland at Callide. They have been utilized mainly for power genera­ tion although some Ipswich coals could be used for production of coal for coking.

The Triassic coals do not match the Permian coals in quality. The Moreton Basin coals contain, in most places, a number of stone bands which have to be removed in treatment plants. The washed coal usually contains a high pro portion of inherent ash, and a large discard is required to produce a low- ash coal. In other places, where the ash content is relatively low, the coal is only marginally coking. At Callide the coal is of low rank and the inherent ash is high.

Although Jurassic coals are widely distributed, the seams in most places are discontinuous and for this reason they have been less attractive to larger consumers than the Triassic coals. They are of lower rank than coking coals and have not been widely prospected during the recent exploration expansion. They vere used, for production of town gas before the introduction of refinery gas and, later, natural gas. They are high-volatile bituminous coals which would be suitable for most chemical industries based on coal or for production of oil from coal.

The Cretaceous coals from the Maryborough and Styx Basins have been main­ ly used as non-coking coals, but they are in fact coking coals. The lenticular nature of their occurrence, however, has tended to discourage most prospectors, who have preferred the more persistent Permian coals. Available data suggest that the potential of the Cretaceous coals is limited by this lenticularity, but there is nevertheless some potential for small-scale operations. They are .high-volatile bituminous coking coals.

5". MARKETS FOR COAL

It is well established that coal will be used in Queensland for power generation at least for the next 20 years, and the requirements for this purpose under normal conditions of development can be forecast within reasonable limits of accuracy. As regards the other major demand for coal - coking coal for export to other countries or to other States of the Commonwealth - some major contracts have already been written, mainly for terms of 10-13 years. Some of these are even now being extended and other contracts are being negotiated. The total quantities of coal involved in these contracts can also be estimated with reasonable accuracy. In addition, however, it can be expected that other large contracts will be negotiated, not only with Japanese but also with European buyers. The quantities contracted will be determined, largely by the price to the consumer compared with the quality of the product, and they cannot be forecast accurately at the present time. However, numerous inquiries are being received from con­ sumers and there is obviously growing interest in Australian coal in European' countries, where the price of domestic coal is rising and there is a decline in the amount of American coal available.

Other demands are for mineral processing: some requirements for this purpose are well established and are being satisfied by subsidiary companies or long-term contracts. Some extension of this demand by the introduction of new industries can be anticipated. 5-5

Minor markets for other purposes are being, and will continue to be, satisfied by local production.

The foregoing are the established avenues of coal utilization in Queensland. Looking beyond them to other possible markets is a popular* pastime and it could be a profitable one for those -who are able to gauge or guess for what purposes coal will be needed in the next few years. There are still many who say that coal is "on the way out", while others have said that coal will soon be too valuable to burn. The truth probably lies between these extremes of opinion.

The domestic market for the coalfields in the northern part of the State is likely to depend mainly on mineral processing. The new industries which are anticipated in Central Queensland, the possible requirements for direct re­ duction of iron ore, plus the requirements of an aluminium refinery, which could possibly be drawn from Central Queensland., could use up to 50 million tons of coal in the next 20 years. Furthermore, a steel industry, if sited near the Queensland coast, would add to the demand for coking coal from the inland fields. It is in this area, also, that chemical industries might be established in the future, and this' possibility will be discussed further in Section 6. Mining companies are seeking overseas markets for Australian non-coking coal, and they may be successful in this search when freight costs ars reduced by the new railways and deep-water ports now being planned. Research into utilization of non-coking coal to produce a substitute for conventional coke is nearing its objective, if it has not already attained it. A substantial market could become available as a result. The Central Queensland fields, with their thick seams and their potential for open-cut mining, should be strong com­ petitors for these markets. 6. SPECIFIC RESERVES AVAILABLE TO MEET CURRENT AND FUTURE DEMANDS

As I have said earlier in this paper, we do not yet know the true quantities of extractable coal in many parts of the Statej and, because of this, I am reluctant to enter the "numbers game". This reluctance is due, not to the size of the already proven extractable reserves, but to the fact that these comprise only a part of the actual total. We could, of course, calculate figures for potential or inferred/reserves, but to do so could be pointless at this stage. If we do not have sufficient data to calculate reserves to at least "indicated" standard, we do not know much about them and certainly not enough to quote tonnages, which will be eagerly collected and placed in tables along with other figures. These, for all the reader knows, may be of similar dubious accuracy. Consequently> the figures given below are, in most instances, conserv­ ative and capable of considerable extension. Except where stated otherwise, they refer to total in situ reserves.

Taking first the demand for power generation, it is estimated that during the next 20 years we shall need 140 to 150 million tons, unless there is an unforeseen increase in consumption of electricity which will result in even higher consumption of coal. Of this total, existing and planned stations will burn 27 to 30 million tons of coal in south-eastern Queensland, about 12 . million tons in northern Queensland, and about 40 million tons in central Queensland. The remainder will be used in either central or south-eastern " Queensland, depending on future planning. New demands for mineral processing.--.. could double or perhaps even treble the northern Queensland consumption; 5-6 Where will this coal be won? At Ipswich, proven reserves total approx­ imately 350 million tons (measured and indicated). Prospecting is in pro­ gress near Nanango. At Callide, reserves of 280 million tons have been proved and this figure could be increased by up to 80 million tons. At Theodore and nearby areas, reserves of approximately 100 million tons suitable for open- cut mining have been proved, and deeper reserves suitable for shallow underground mining could be proved by further drilling. Over 300 million tons of .suitable coal have been proved in the Blackwater District, and at Blair Athoi proven tonnages exceed 260 million tons. Farther north, there are over 75 million tons of open-cut coal west of Nebo and over 200 million tons of coal at Collins­ ville. South of Collinsville, exploration now in progress is expected to delin­ eate both coking and non-coking coals. Other areas west of Theodore and south­ west and west of Blackwater almost certainly contain large reserves of suitable coal, but they have not been explored. The Carmila Beds near the coast may also be proved to contain substantial quantities of coal suitable for power generation.

As regards the coking coal export market, this already requires approx­ imately 175 million tons to satisfy written contracts, usually involving 10- to 13- year terms. If these were to be extended at the same rates, the figure would be approximately 375 million tons to the year 1990.. Again, if some of the major prospecting ventures now approaching completion were to result in contracts of the sizes envisaged, the total could be over 600 million tons. Looking farther, to exports to Europe and the needs of a steel industry (if one were to be set up in Queensland), it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that we might need to produce over 750 million tons of coal for coking during the next 20 years.

Where are these tonnages? The minimum figure for the Moura area is 100 million tons and there are much greater tonnages available for extraction by underground mining. At Blackwater, extractable reserves already established are believed to be in excess of 400 million tons, and "there is still considerable scope for increasing this figure also. In the area between the Mackenzie River and Collinsville, where several companies are proving their areas, it will be surprising if extractable reserves are not greatly in excess of 1,000 million tons. Farther west, preliminary announcements that coking coal has been found at Capella indicate that the tonnages there will be significant. At Collinsville a large proportion of the previously quoted reserves are coking coal; and there is still the unproved potential of the Carmila Beds and the Galilee Basin.

The third major established market is for mineral processing and associated industries, which are at present being satisfied by subsidiary companies and long-term contracts. These are not expected to be much greater than '25 million tons in the 20-year review period, and they will be satisfied from the central and northern fields, as will the other relatively small demands of industry.

The possibilities of the future are exciting. If the expected industries develop in central Queensland, as many people believe they will, at least 60 million tons of non-coking coal will be required from the reserves listed above. Again, research organizations throughout the world are working hard on making coke substitutes from coals not suitable for production of conventional coke. The breakthrough may already have been attained in more than one organization and, if so, some of the open-cut reserves of Central Queensland may soon be in demand for this purpose, particularly if new railways and deep-water ports lower the freight rates sufficiently.to allow these coals to compete on the European market.

The last possibility I have considered is the establishment of either a chemical industry or a plant to produce liquid fuel from coal. Overseas literature suggests that the latter is rapidly becoming an economically feasible 5 proposition. The cost of up to 300 million tons of coal will be the largest single factor in the cost of production and, again, open-cut coal would he attractive to oil-from-coal industry. I have indicated above where some open- cut reserves are known to exist; at this stage the Galilee Basin could be the most attractive source of supply, if the industry could be established in that locality.

7. CONCLUSION

I hope I shall be pardoned for including the possible markets in this review of the coal resources of Queensland. I think that the value of a statement of such resources, as we now know them, is greater when the possible demands on those resources are also examined.

I hope that the paper may have stimulated further thought on possible markets, and that this will result in increased exploration for some types of coals that are now not in great demand.

8. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This paper is published by permission of the Minister of Mines and Main Roads, and includes some data obtained from Departmental records. The analytical data have been used with the permission of the Queensland Coal Board and have been extracted from its publications. The opinions expressed are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the Department cf Mines.

9. REFERENCES

(1)- QUEENSLAND COAL BOARD. "Queensland coals, physical and chemical properties and classification", 3rd ed. (Consolidated Printing Co., Brisbane, 1968).

(2) ROACH, W. History of coal mining in Queensland. Qld. Govt. Min. J«, 1952, 21, 775-782. TABLE 1. PHISICAL AND CHEMICAL PROPERTIES OF QUEENSLAND COALS

Rose­ Blair Bluff Collinsville Bun- wood Burrum Moura Selene Athol North Styx (Bowen) damba North (Wal­ Darling (How­ Theo­ Non- Bara- Black- (Mul- (Cler­ (Yarra- (0g- Non- .Ipswich) (Ipswich) loon) Downs ard) Callide dore Kianga Colting Coking laba water gildie) mont) Bluff bee) mora) Colting Coking Proximate Analysis {% air-dried basis • Inherent moisture 2.1 1.7 5.7 4.0 2.2 9.7 6.8 2.8 2.0 2.4 1.0 2.1 7.0 7.5 1.2 1.8 2.7 1.0 1.5 Volatile matter 27.9 26.9 37.2 38.8 30.0 25.7 32.1 32.5 26.7 24.6 12.4 27.2 37.2 27.6 14.8 9 2 30.1 20.6 18.7 Fixed carbon 47.1 47.4 37.1 35.2 55.3 51.1 51.7 57.9 64.9 63.4 79.1 65.3 36.3 56.7 72.5 80.2 53.6 63.9 59.8 Ash (average as sold) 22.9 24.0 20.0 22.0 12.5 13.5 9.4 6.8 6.4 9.6 7.5 5.4 19.5 8.2 11.5 3.8 13.6 14.5 20.0 Calorific Value (Gross, Btu/lb) Air-dried basis 10,580 11,210 10,650 10,760 12,890 10,020 11,570 13,430 13,920 13,440 14,290 14,35C 10,180 11,780 13,400 13,260 12,390 12,970 11,610 Crucible swelling number 3 6 1£ 1* 8* 0 1^-5 71 2* 1 5*-6 * 1 3* 0 4i 5* 1* Coke type (Gray-King l.t. carbonization) D V C C V A * A E B G B B C » F G G Total sulphur (% air-driedl 0.34 0.36 0.56 0.51 0.67 0.20 0.29 0.68 0.36 0.73 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.48 0.73 0.60 0.47 1.25 0.65

Data not available.

» * « • * « 6-1

PAPER 6

RESERVES, RESOURCES, AND STATISTICS OF LIQUID AND GASEOUS FUELS IN AUSTRALIA

By: M. C. KONECKI*, K. BLAIR*, and J. M. HENRY*

SUMMARY

This paper discusses the concepts and definitions of reserves and resources and develops the argument in relation to petroleum in Australia.

Current proved reserves of crude oil at the end of 1969 are estimated to be 1815.3 million barrels, of which 84.9$ are located'offshore. Because of the nature of the crude oil and the reservoirs, these reserves are probably ultimate reserves, as secondary recovery methods are not likely to be particularly effective in most of the known fields. Probable reserves do not, for this reason, exceed 100 million barrels.

Current proved reserves of natural gas at the end of 1969 are estimated to be 13.3 million million cubic feet, associated with which are 208.4 million barrels of natural gas liquids. Again, some 75$ of these reserves are located offshore. Probable reserves are in excess of 3 million million cubic feet and 60 million barrels of natural gas liquids.

Australian petroleum consumption and production patterns are described.

A sharp increase in Australian hydrocarbon production occurred in 1969, when Brisbane, Melbourne and Adelaide began to receive natural gas, the Gipps- land Shelf area commenced crude oil production, and the Barrow Island field achieved its projected daily production rate of 45,000 to- 50,000 barrels.

Natural gas will form an ever-increasing portion of the total energy consumption, and should reach some 9.2$ by 1979-80.

•Bureau of Mineral Resources," Geology, and Geophysics, ,Canberra,,.A.C,.T. 6-2

Australian success ratios in wildcat drilling compare favourably with those of the U.S.A. and Canada. Significant discovery rates are 1 in 11.6" wildcats drilled in the U.S.A., 1 in 17.6 in Canada, and 1 in 12.7 in Australia.

1. THE CONCEPTS OF MINERAL RESERVES AND MINERAL RESOURCES 1 2 In their classical works ' , Blondell and Lasky speak of two principal viewpoints "... from which the mineral potentialities of a deposit or of a region should be looked at, namely, the point of view of the mining engineer and the viewpoint of the economist". The first is involved in the assessment of the volume of mineral recoverable from a deposit under the current and near- future technological and economic conditions, whereas the other applies himself • to the appraisal of mineral potential of a region, country, continent or the world with a view to ensuring a continuous supply of minerals over an extended period, projected into a distant future. The "miner's" concern, therefore, is the assessment or estimation of reserves; the economist's interest is the estimation of resources.

It follows that the concept of resources is much wider than that of reserves, the latter being embraced by the former. The two concepts are comple­ mentary, and while "... the usefulness of the first is limited, the usefulness of the second depends on the first"., ^ 3 Schnurr, Netschert, et al. introduced a third concept of "resource base". This is defined as including all the particular mineral in the earth's crust over a specified region, irrespective of the economic and technological feasibility involved in its recovery. Resources, according to these authors, denote that part of the resource base which can be recovered under any given set of economic and technological conditions, while reserves "..are explicitly defined in terms of immediate or short-term economic,feasibility of extraction. The cost limits are consistent with normal risk taking and commercial production, and exclude material which cannot be profitably extracted with current techniques

Frequently, however, in petroleum literature, resources are expressed as reserves prefaced by an adjective denoting various aspects of recovery under given technological and economic conditions. Thus we may recognize that ultimate petroleum reserves^? 5 correspond to ultimate petroleum resources^ and both correlate with the concept of petroleum resource base.

2. PETROLEUM RESOURCES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

At any given time the petroleum resources of a region or country represent the sum total of the following volumes: cumulative production to date, remaining proved reserves, and potential reserves', the latter N.^ing made up of the supple­ mentary reserves and the undiscovered reserves.° 8 A simple expression of this statement is as follows:

Qoo = Qp + QR"+ Qs + Qy '.:

In the early stages of a country's petroleum development the resources are made up largely of potential reserves, while near the end of the production history most of the country's petroleum resources would consist of cumulative production:

Qao = Qp

At this stage the estimates of resources, and of reserves^ are most accurate, 6-3 while at the beginning they are subject to large errors inherent in assumption, judgments, and interpretation of the generally meagre and imprecise geological,' reservoir engineering and, often, economic data.

At any instant between the early and the final phases of the petroleum production history of a country or region the current resources are represented by the differences" between the total resources and the cumulative production to that date.

3. PETROLEUM RESERVES AND THEIR CATEGORIES 9 In discussing the subject of oil and gas reserve estimates, J.J. Arps has stated an obvious though frequently ignored truth that "... as in all estimates, the accuracy of the results generally cannot be expected to exceed the limitations imposed on it by inaccuracies in the available basic data". To this there should be added another warning that "... there is no such absolute entity as 'the' reserves or resources of a mine or an area; there are only estimates applicable within particular economic limitations and degrees of certainty. For the sake of clear understanding between the estimator and the M user of the estimate, these conditioning factors should in each case be specified.

The recognition of these basic precepts has led to the creation and defini­ tion of categories of petroleum reserves. These relate to varying degrees of. reliability of estimates. Associated with these attempts to categorize.reserves (and resources) there has been a prolific growth in terminology, definitions, and variations thereon. Various philosophies and methods of estimation have been introduced and applied in different countries of the world. An instructive summary of the-subject was presented in 1965 at' the Third E.C.A.F.E. Petroleum Symposium in Tokyo/5

The authors of this paper favour the use of the terms "proved", "probable}' and "possible" for the purposes of petroleum reserve estimation. This classifi­ cation, based on a descending order of reliability of estimates, appears to be generally accepted in Australian petroleum society.

Proved reserves are generally considered to represent the quantity of petroleum which is recoverable from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. This general definition by the American Petroleum Institute has been adopted also by t,he American Gas Association Inc., and by the Canadian Petroleum Association, who publish annual reports of their respective reserves committees.'^ The rules of estimating the proved reserves are quite specific and limiting. The resulting figures may be considered as the known and established inventory available for recovery under prevailing con­ ditions, and are subject to subsequent' revisions, either upward or downward, when knowledge of the geological and physical characteristics of developing fields increases,-arid when extensions, new discoveries, and improved recovery techniques lead to additions. Proved reserves represent that volume of petroleum recoverable from the known pool Dr pools, and reliably estimated as such in accordance with the accepted procedures. That recoverable portion, which cannot be estimated "with the degree of reliability required for proved reserves, has come to be called probable reserves. while the term possible reserves denotes the quantity of petroleum recoverable from the known pool or pools, and which may only-be estimated with a very low degree of reliability; estimation of. possible reserves involves considerable speculation. 6-4

Early petroleum reserve estimates assumed that petroleum is recovered from reservoirs by means of primary.or latent energy only, i.e. using the techniques of gas expansion and gas cap drive, water drive, gravity segrega­ tion, and any combination of these. However, the successful application of "secondary" recovery methods and techniques of various types and degrees of efficiency has made them an important factor in the estimation of reserves and resources. Accordingly, some proposed reserve classifications clearly differentiate primary reserves from the secondary ones and then subdivide each of the two according to a degree of reliability, so that we may have proved primary and proved secondary; probable primary and probable secondary; and possible primary and possible secondary petroleum reserves.^

A system of reserves classification, proved, probable, possible, with the corresponding weighting or chance factors of 100$, 50$, 25$, has been claimed to convey "... a clear idea of the estimated certainty that the various quantities of oil will be produced".^

A much more sophisticated approach to the problem of the degree of reliability, or conversely, that of uncertainty associated with estimation of petroleum reserves, makes use of probability distribution functions'^? 14-j the application of this method "... allows the volumes to be defined on a quantita­ tive probability scale, either before a discovery has been made or during the various stages of production".^

4. METHODOLOGY AND CHRONOLOGY INVOLVED IN ESTIMATION OF PETROLEUM RESERVES

It is often stated that an accurate estimate of ultimate recoverable reserves of a hydrocarbon accumulation cannot be obtained until the field is apparently depleted- Even at this point, however, the figure may not be exact, as a novel technique for recovery of residual hydrocarbons may increase it beyond the apparent final value. However, during the "course of discovery, development, and exploration, estimates of recoverable reserves must be made at certain intervals in order to determine and justify maximum efficient rates of production, special production complexes, and most efficient means of stimula­ tion or secondary recovery.

Until a stable production history has been established, reserves are usually calculated by the volumetric method, which is simply expressed for any given reservoir as:-

Oil; Area x thickness x porosity x (1 - Water content) x Recovery factor x Shrinkage factor = Stock tank oil

Gas; As for oil, except that the shrinkage factor is replaced by the factor PrTs/(ZPsTr) where. Pr = reservoir pressure in lb/in.2j Ts = standard measurement temperature, usually 520 degrees Rankine; Z = compressibility factor; Ps = standard measurement pressure, usually M+,7 lb/in.2 abs; Tr = reservoir temperature, in degrees Rankine.

The calculation gives the reserves in standard cubic feet of gas.

At some stage in the history of the field, normally during the develop­ ment drilling programme, reservoir limit tests may be carried out. In these tests, production is maintained.at a constant-rate and the bottom hole pressure is measured through the transient to the steady-state stages. The resultant pressure-time profile, applied to certain equations, determines (or at the very least indicates^ reservoir limits - faults, pinchouts, and other permeability 6-5 barriers, lluid contact, etc. Limit tests are valid in either gas or liquid reservoirs.

The chronological order and frequency of reserve estimation is normally of the following pattern:

4-.1. Exploration Drilling

Should a wildcat well encounter what appears to be a significant hydro­ carbon accumulation, a series of drillstem tests are run from which several reservoir parameters are derived. Amongst them is the "radiiTs of drainage", which, when combined with data derived from the analysis of various borehole logs, cores, and cuttings, gives a minimal value of recoverable reserves, calculated by the volumetric method.

A.2. Extension Drilling

Following the preliminary assessment an extension well is drilled and its location determined by the findings of the wildcat drilling (radius of drainage) and by the seismic and other geophysical and ^ologioal evidence available. Should this well also be successful, the recoverable reserves are calculated on the basis of seismically derived structure contour maps, combined core and log analyses from the two wells, and PVT data, all applied to the volumetric method.

U. 3. Development Drilling

A development well pattern based on the results of the tests described in Sections A.»1 and 4-. 2 is designed, and the production plant installed. As development drilling proceeds, more and more subsurface geological data accumu­ late until eventually there is a transition from seismically derived structure contour maps to more accurate well correlation contour maps. This, together with an ever-increasing fund of data on the physical properties of the reservoir rock and its contents, leads to reserve estimates within much narrower confidence limits than those obtained previously. At this stage, reservoir models usually begin to contribute significantly to the calculation of reserve estimates. The volumetric method is still applied, but there is scope for reservoir limit testing.

A- A-* Production

As soon as a reservoir begins to produce, its performance is scrutinized, with particular emphasis on production-pressure decline. A series of observat­ ion wells is usually drilled to supply information on movements of liquid/liquid and liquid/gas interfaces in the reservoir. These, combined with pulse and interference production tests, more representative PVT studies, full core analyses and researches, and pilot schemes, lead to a sophisticated estimate of recover­ able reserves, and enable the most efficient means of secondary and perhaps tertiary recovery to be decided. Reservoir models are used extensively at this stage. .,.'..

These major reservoir studies are carried out at specified intervals in the producing life of the field, or when some unpredicted change occurs in the field's performance. As far as is known, this is generally the approach to reserve estimates so far adopted in Australia, 6-6

5. SUMMARY OF PETROLEUM RESERVES IN AUSTRALIA

5.1. Proved Reserves

Published company statements, State Government reports, and some individ­ ual papers have been used in the preparation of Table 1 and Table 2, which summarize estimates of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in individual fields. Wherever practicable, the informax-ion was verified by the authors' own calculations, usually with reference to the relevant company or State authorities. However, the authors take full responsibility and accept any possible criticism for determining all or some of the reserves listed in the tables as being of a proven category. Numerous gaps shown as "n.a." in the tabulations, together with large credits assigned to "new discoveries" or "revis­ ions" in any one year reflect a very provisional, irregular, and largely un­ coordinated approach to the problem of petroleum reserves estimation in general. It is hoped that these shortcomings will be generally recognized and promptly removed by a joint effort of the State and Commonwealth Governments and the oil industry. .

The format of the tables follows that of recent annual reports of the Queensland Department of Mines, which since 1964. has prepared annual invent­ ories of the crude oil and natural gas of the State in a meticulous and con­ scientious manner. It is a coincidence, no doubt_, that most of Australia's oil is producible from reservoirs largely under an active water drive either as a natural condition or, as in the case of Barrow Island, an induced one introduced almost from the start of production. This aspect, coupled with the generally high specific gravity of the oils, should result in relatively high recoveries of oil originally in place; in fact, recovery factors have been determined to be in the region of 50$. In the circumstances there is little room for additional reserves to be obtained from most of the known accumulations by the application of "secondary" or "tertiary" recovery methods.

5.2. Probable Reserves

By and large, Australian proved reserves of crude oil are" also ultimate reserves, and there are few instances of probable reserves (Tuna, for example) that could be recovered in addition to proved primary, reserves. On the evidence available, these probable reserves are estimated as not exceeding 100 million barrels. In effect, the recovery costs should be, on the whole, lower than those from reservoirs producing under depletion drive.

Most of the current proved reserves of crude oil are located offshore; only 283.156 x 10° barrels or 15.1$ of the total of 1867.656 x 106 barrels are onshore.

Probable reserves of natural gas present a more encouraging picture, particularly in the light of discoveries offshore in the Bonaparte Gulf at Petrel 1, and in the Bass Basin at Pelican 1; and onshore at Tirrawarra, Roseneath, and Palm Valley. Some of these accumulations are reported to contain fairly high.proportions of natural gas liquids (NGL) (e.g. Pelican 1, Tirra­ warra No. 1).

The authors estimate that the cumulative reserves of natural gas in these regions combined with possible reserves at Daralingie and Toolachee in the Cooper Basin, in the Gingin and Dongara-Modarra-Yardarino area in the Perth Basin,,and at Palm Valley, may be well in excess of 3 x lO^2 cubic feet, and those of NGL of the order of 60 million barrels. 6-7

5.3. Undiscovered Resources

The estimation of undiscovered resources of petroleum is a most difficult exercise; at best it has a strong element of speculation, at worst it may be meaningless, irrelevant, or impossible.

Ideally these estimates should be made "... on the basis of comprehensive studies of the geology of each sedimentary basin of the country and of the relationships between the occurrence of petroleum and the type, architecture, and geological history of the basin". L.G. Weeks said the same thing: "...the most critical factor ... is purely geologic, but it involves many considerations".

The work by Lewis G. Weeks on the assessment of the world's offshore petroleum resources provides one approach to this problem.^6 Weeks categorizes continental shelf areas,- and rates them in the following manner, according to their estimated petroleum potential:- "A contains, or is in continuity with, an excellent producing area, and with like geology. B contains, or is in continuity with, a fair producing area, or whose geology is similarly favourable for commercial production. C. Prospects are submarginal or not commercially attractive on the basis of present information, but in some cases cannot be ruled out of higher classificatio D. Geology indicates no prospects, usually due to inadequate sedimentary cover".

Weeks actually attributes quantitative petroleum liquid equivalent recovery values to Categories A and B. These evolve from a painstaking analysis of the massive data available on the world's continental shelves and their petroleum potentials, and it is therefore with some confidence that he states that the pro­ ductivities of Categories A and B are 896,000 and 320,000 barrels per square mile respectively.

However, at this stage in Australian offshore petroleum history, and considering the many factors bearing on the occurrence of economic petroleum accumulations, one can only infer that there are substantial quantities of hydrocarbons yet to be discovered on the continental shelf, and that these quantities may well be considerably in excess of the proved and probable reserves found to date.

As for onshore undiscovered resources, for the reasons stated at the beginning of this chapter it is well-nigh impossible at this juncture to estimate the undiscovered petroleum reserves in the 1.6 million square miles of Australian land basins.

On the evidence of exploration and development carried out to date, the chances of discovering hydrocarbons in the largely Palaeozoic and, to a lesser degree Mesozoic, sediments in these basins on a "per square mile" basis are extremely low - well below world average. There does not seem to be, therefore, a reliable or even a plausible yardstick applicable to undiscovered reserves in the land sedimentary areas in Australia. Again, one can only infer, but even less hopefully than when dealing with the continental shelf, that there may be significant quantities of hydrocarbons yet to be discovered on land..

6. SUMMARY OF PETROLEUM LIQUID EQUIVALENT RESOURCES IN AUSTRALIA

6.1. Oil and Gas Field Resources

The Australian petroleum liquid equivalent resources are summarized^as follows (these figures apply to the estimates for the end of 1969? at which time b-8

cumulative production of petroleum liquid equivalent in Australia was 0.05 x 10^ barrels): Resources Petroleum Liquid Equivalent 9 barrels x 10 Proved and probable U*67 Possible (undiscovered) unknown 4..£>7 plus

6.2. Additional Petroleum Resources - Shale Oil Commercial exploitation of oil-productive shale in Australia was carried out from 1865 to 1952. Over this period, some 3.4- x 10" tons were produced, , mainly in New South Wales, and the quoted yield of motor spirit was 26.4- x 10 gallons. Quantitative yields of other petroleum products are not known. . Recently, interest in oil shale has been revived in Australia and in several major overseas countries, .and shale must now be considered as a possible alternative source of hydrocarbons. Given a viable and economic means of petroleum liquids extraction, and considering the vast deposits of shale in Australia, the resources would appear to be well in excess of those envisaged for liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon deposits. 6.3* Total Petroleum Resources

Considering the figures given in Sections 6.1 and 6.2 together,, it would appear that petroleum resources in Australia could greatly exceed the proved and probable figure of 4-67 x 109 barrels petroleum liquid equivalent.

7. PETROLEUM STATISTICS

7.1. Sources of Statistics

In Australia, the important work of compiling and collation of petroleum statistics is undertaken by several bodies, Governmental and otherwise. A list of these and of their statistical functions is given in Table 3.

A comprehensive and valuable record of petroleum statistics, from search to sales patterns of end. products, has been maintained in Australia. A concerted effort by Governments and industry would enhance the worth of these records, through the medium of standardization of units, nomenclature, and data presentation.

By far the most authoritative and informative work on consumption pro­ duction, and forecasts is "Petroleum Statistics", published for each calendar year by the Fuel Branch, Department of National Development.

7.2. Production of Hydrocarbons

The national production of hydrocarbons began with the commercial ex­ ploitation of the Moonie field in 1964, and has risen sharply in recent years, following the discovery and stimulation of the Barrow Island oilfield; the discoveries and development of the prolific Gippsland Shelf oil and gas accumulations; the discovery and development of the Gidgealpa - Moomba and Roma gas fields, and the inauguration of the associated pipelines. The real 6-9 threshold year was 1969, during which three major cities - Brisbane, Melbourne, and Adelaide - Lcgun to receive natural gas; the Gippsland Shelf are?? ^cmm^r^d crude oil product ion; and the Barrow Island field achieved. its projected daily production rate of 4-5,000 to 50,000 barrels.

In 1965, indigenous production of crude oil was some 7,000 barrels daily; at the end of 1968, daily production was 38,000 barrels, while by the end of 1969 •- the figure had risen to 4.6,500 barrels. By early 1972, a sustained daily rate of about 350,000 barrels should be realized, at which level-production is expected to remain for some years after which it will decline unless and until further major discoveries are encountered and developed.

As for natural gas, in 1965 the only commercial .production in Australia was in. the Roma area, Queensland, where the average rate was 0.4 million cubic feet per day. At*the end of 1969, national commercial production was almost 57 million ^eubic feet per day, and projected production by late 1971 will reach some 287 million, cubic feet per day.

7.3. Consumption "e.f Hydro carbons \ Australian crude oilxconsumption is rising and will continue to rise by 5-6$ per annum. In the fiscal year 1968-69, total consumption was 172.5 million barrels (4-73,000 barrels per dayO; by 1974-75 it will be 234.5 million barrels (642,000 barrels per day); and lh 1979-80 the forecast requirement will be 313.5 million barrels (859,000 barrels per dayj..

In the overall primary energy consumption pattern in Australia, these figures represent roughly 50% for 1968-6^, and 47.5% for 1974-7-5 and 1979-80. \ Natural gas is making a significant impact on Australian primary energy consumption. Whereas in the year 1968-69, consumption of gas formed some 0.06% of the total energy consumed, in 1974-75 it will account for some 6.1% and in 1979-80 some 9.2%. To these figures the requirements for petrochemical plant feedstock and other uses must be added. To forecast these additional require­ ments would be difficult at the present time. Also, proximity of, newly discover­ ed major mineral deposits to known gas resources may cause the demand for natural gas as a fuel to increase significantly.

7.4. Problem of Self-sufficiency

By late 1971, indigenous crude'oil production will meet 62.5% of the nation's requirements in volume, and dependence on imports will be 37%, tailored to balance the deficiency in heavy products that the Australian crudes en­ countered so far have displayed. Thereafter the proportion of national con­ sumption requirements provided by national production will decline to 52% in 1975-76 and 42% in 1979-80, should there be no-success in the search for further major oilfields. After 1985, the national contribution to the consumption demands will become insignificant as presently known reserves are depleted, and the general pattern will gradually revert to that of the pre-1960's.

However, the fairly abundant known reserves of natural gas and its', associated liquids will- play a large part inalleviating/the self-sufficiency problem portrayed by the "present):crude oil situation. In petroleum liquids • ••-, equivalent value, available natural gas now stands at some 44% more: than'.that for producible crude oil. It is evident that if current circumstances pr.ey.ail for any extended period, Australia will become more and more gas-oriented, if the philosophy of an energy self-sufficiency is to be entertained and fostered. 6-10

Australian hydrocarbon production and consumption figures are given in Table 4.

7.5. Discovery Rate and Expenditure

By the end of 1968, cumulative expenditure on petroleum exploration, development, and production was $689.7 million, almost double the equivalent figure for the end of 19&5, "^ne large increase being due to the extensive development programmes taking place in the Barrow Island oilfield, the Gippsiand Shelf area,the Gidgealpa - Moomba fields, and the Roma gas areas.

Disregarding unseen benefits such as contribution to Australia's petroleum expertise and fund of geological knowledge, the capital value of production installations and pipelines, etc., this figure indicates that in Australia (and excluding Papua/faew Guinea) until the end of 1968. $689.7 million had been invested in 15S5 x 10° barrels of crude oil, 13.7 x 10'^ cubic feet of natural gas, and 204.9 x 10° barrels of natural gas liquids. That is, each dollar invested had shown a return of 2.3 barrels of crude oil, 20,000 cubic feet of natural gas, and 0.3 barrel of natural gas liquids. To this end, 1,756 wells and 7,287,520 feet had been drilled, and of these just over 500 wells and 2 million feet were the subject of development.

7.6. Success Ratios

On an operations basis, and dealing with exploration only, the success pattern was studied (see Table 5) for the period since the advent of petroleum search subsidy in 1957, to the end of 1969.

In brief, 1,023 exploration wells have been drilled in Australia-since 1957, accounting for 5,174,726 feet. As a result of this activity there were significant discoveries in 52 true wildcat gas wells, 16 true wildcat oil wells, 9 true wildcat gas and oil wells, 28 extension gas wells, 8 extension oil wells, and 12 extension gas and oil wells. Further to this, there were 2 discoveries (one gas, one gas and oil) in deeper pool tests. Aggregate footage in the successful wells amounted to 895,681 feet. The success ratios are therefore: oil, 1 in 43.5 '(2.3#)$ gas,-1 in 12.6 {1.9%); gas and oil, 1 in 46.5 (2.2%); and, all encounters, 1 in 8.1 (12.4$). Considering the vastness of the Australian continent, its sparseness of population and its comparatively recent petroleum exploration history, these success figures are encouraging when aligned with those for U.S.A. and Canada which are, on the average, as follows:-''

Success Ratio All exploratory wells Strict wildcats U.S.A. Tin 6.3 (16$) • 1 in 11.6 (8.6$) Canada - .1 in 17.6 (5.69$) Australia 1 in 8.1 (12.6$) 1 in 12.7 (7.9$)

8. ACKNOWLEDGMENT

This paper is published with the permission of the Director, Bureau of Mineral Resources, Geology, and Geophysics, Canberra, A.G.T. The authors are indebted to the Fuel Branch, Department of National Development, Melbourne, Victoria, for many of the figures quoted. 6-11

REFERENCES

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(2) BLONDELL, F., and LASKY, S.G. Concepts of mineral reserves and resources. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Survey of World Iron Ore Resources, United Nations, New York, 1970, 53-58.

(3) SCHNURR, S.H., NETSCHERT, B.C., et al. Energy in the American Economy 1850-1975. Resources for the Future, Inc. The John Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1960, 295-301.

(4) KING HUBBERT, M. Techniques of prediction with application to the oil industry. Shell Development Co., Publication No. 204, 1959.

(5) ZAPP, A.D. Future petroleum producing capacity of the United States. Geol. Surv. Bull. 1142-H, 1960.

(6) WEEKS, L.G. Where will energy come from in 2059? Petroleum Engr, 1959, % A24-A31. (7) U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR. An appraisal of the petroleum industry of the United States. Jan., 1965.

(8) MARTINEZ, A.R. (FOR OPEC, ORGANIZATION OF THE PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES). Definition of petroleum resources. Second E.C.A.F.E. Symposium on the Development of Petroleum Resources of Asia and the Far East, Teheran, 1962.

(9) ARPS, J.J. Estimation of primary oil resources. S.P.E.-A.I.M..E. Petroleum Conference - Economics and Valuation, Dallas, Texas, March, 1956.

(10) AMERICAN GAS ASSOCIATION, INC., AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE, and CANADIAN PETROLEUM ASSOCIATION. Reports on proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in the United States and Canada.

(11) LOVEJOY, W.F., and ROMAN, P.T. Methods of estimating reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids„ Resources for the Future Inc.. Washington. D.C., 1965, 56-61.

(12) FACER, .J. Measuring a discovery: How to estimate the size of an oilfield. Second E.C.A.F.E. Symposium on'the Development of Petroleum Resources of Asia and the Far East, Teheran 1962.

(13) FRANKS, G.D. On the estimation of oil and gas resources. Fourth ; E.C.A.F.E. Symposium on the Development of Petroleum Resources • of Asia and the Far East, Canberra, 1969.

(14) MAYER-GURR, A. Erdgas - Vorratsberechnungen. Kohle-Erdgas- Petrochemie. 1969, 2, 129-132. (15) E.C.A.F.E. SECRETARIAT. Categories of petroleum reserves. Third E.C.A.F.E. Symposium on the Development of Petroleum Resources of Asia and the Far East, Tokyo, 1965.

(16) -WEEKS, L.G. Assessment of the world's offshore petroleum resourcess and exploration review. Institute of Economics of the Petroleum Industry, Dallas, Texas, March, 1966.

(17) TWENTIETH CENTURY PETROLEUM STATISTICS 1969. Collected by De Golyer and'MacNaughton. Canadian Petroleum Association, 1968, Statistical Year Book. TABLE 1. SUMMARY OF ESTIMATES OF PROVED CRUDE OIL RESERVES IN AUSTRALIA IN MILLIONS OF BARRELS

'i INITIAL NEW INITIAL CUMULATIVE CURRENT RESERVES AT DISCOVERIES RESERVES A'l PRODUCTION RESERVES PREVIOUS AND END OP TO END OF (AT END OF YEAR BASIN FIELD YEAR'S END REVISIONS EXTENSIONS CURRENT CURRENT CURRENT REMARKS YEAR YEAR YEAR) 1961 Bowen-Surat Moonie n.a. n.a. n.a. Total Aust. Moonie n.a. n.a. 1962 Bowen-Surat Moonie n.a. n.a. n.a. Total Aust. Moonie n.a. n.a. n.a. 1963 Bowen-Surat Moonie n.a. n.a. n.a. Rich­ mond n.a. n.a. n.a. Total Aust. All fields n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1964 Bowen-Surat Moonie n.a. 25.028* 25.028 1.487 23.541 *Refer back to discovery in 1961. Alton 4.372 4.372 4.372 Conloi 0.152 0.152 0.152 Rich­ mond n.a. 0.144* 0.144 0.009 0.135 *Refer back to discovery in 1963. Carnarvon Barrow Is > n.a. n.a. n*a. Perth Yardarino n.a. n.a. n.a. Amadeus Mereenie n.a. n.a. n.a. Total Aust .All fields n.a. 29.696 29.696 1.496 28.200 1965 Bowen-Sura t Moonie 25.028 +2.494 27.522 4.101 23.421 Alton 4.372 -1.912 2.460 2.460 Conloi 0.152 0.152 0.152 Bennett 0.260 0.260 0.260 Richmond 0.144 -0.057 0.087 0.013 0.074 Other fields-Roma 0.180 0.180 0.001 0.179 Trinidad) 0.107 0.107 0.004 0.103 Carnarvon Barrow Is. n.a. n.a. n.a. Perth Yardarino n.a. n.a. n.a. I Amadeus Mereenie n.a. n.a. n.a. Total Aust . All fields 29.696 +0.525 0.547 30.768 4.119 26.649 1966 Bowen-Sural Moonie 27.522 27-522 7.202 20.320 Alton 2.460 2.460 0.264 2.196 Conloi 0.152 0.152 - 0.005 0.147 Bennett 0.260 0.260 0.019 0.241 Richmond 0.087 0.087 0.013 0.074 Other fields- Roma 0.180 0.180 0.003 0.177 Trinidad 0.107 0-107 0.010 0.097 Carnarvon Barrow Is • n.a. +29.000 85.000*- 114.000 0.002 113.993

Perth Yardarino n.a. n.a. n.a. Amadeus Mereenie n.a. n,a. n.a. Gippsland Marlin 2.000 2.000 2.000 Total Aust. All fields 30.768 29.00 87.000 146.768 7.518 139.250 1967 Bowen-Surat Moonie 27.522 27.522 9.637 17.885

'.-••• Alton 2.460 2.460 : 0.558 1.902. Conloi 0.152 -0.127 0.025 0.005 0.020 Bennett 0.260 0.260 0.034 0.226 . Richmond 0.087 0.087 0.013 0.074 Other fiel 1s- Roma • 0.180 0.180 0.007 0.173 Trinidad 0.107 0.107 0.011 0.096 Duarran / 0.210 0.210 0.210 Carnarvon Barrow Is , 114.000 114.000 4.985 109.015 Pasco Is. n.a. n.a. n.a. Perth Yardarino n.a. n.a. n.a. Amadeus Mereenie n.a. 60.000* 60.000 60.000 "Refer back to to discovery in in 1964. Gippsland Marlin 2.000 2.000 i 2.000 Kingfish n.a. n.a. n.a. Halibut n.a. •'. n. a. ..'. ; n.a* Total Aust. Ml fields 146.768 -0.127 60.210 212.841 15.250 197.591 ! u

TABLE 1. (Contd)

TABLE 1. (Contd) 1968 Bowen-Surat Moonie 27.522 -7.522 20.000 12.480 7.520 Alton 2.460 2.460 0.831 1.629 Bennett 0.260 +0.025 0.285 0.043 0.242 Richmond 0.087 0.087 0.013 0.074 Other fields- Roma 0.180 0.180 0.008 0.172 Trinidad 0.107 0.107 0.013 0.094 Duarran ' 0.210 -0.148 0.062 0.017 0.05T Carnarvon Barrow Is.114,000 86.000 200.000 15.819 184.181 Pasco Is. n,a. n.a. n.a. Legendre n.a. n.a. n.a. Perth Yardarino n.a. n.a. n.a. Amadeus Mereenie 60.000 60.000 60.000 Gippsland Marlin 2.000 2.000 2.000 Kingfish n.a. 900.000* 900.000 900.000

Halibut n.a. 400.000* 400.000 400.000 *Refer back •. to discovery in 1967. Tuna n.a. n.a. n.a. Snapper n.a. n.a. n.a. Flounder n.a. n.a. n.a. Barraoouta n.a. n.a. n.a. Total Aust. All fields212.841 +78.335 1300.000 1585.181 29.218 1555.963 1969 Bowen-Surat Moonie 20.000 -2.000 18.000 . 14.463 3.537 Alton 2.460 2.460 1.069 1.391 Bennett 0.260 0.260 0.050 0.235 Richmond 0.087 0.087 0.013 0.074 Other fields- Roma 0.180 +0.030 0.210 0.010 0.200 Trinidad 0.107 0.107 0.013 0.094 Duarran 0.062 0.062 " 0.013 0.049 Carnarvon Barrow Is. 200.000 200.000 29.296 170.704 Pasco Is* rua, n.a. n.a. Legendre n.a. n.a. n.a. Perth Yardarino n.a. n.a. n.a. Dongaxa n.a. n.a. n.a. Aaadeus Mersenie 60.000 60.000 60.000 Gippsland Marlin 2.000 2.000 2.000 Kingfish 900.000 +160.000 1060.000 1060.000 Halibut 400.000 +40.000 440.000 0.014 439.986 Tuna n.a. 70.000* 70.000 70.000

Snapper n.a. n.a. n.a. Flounder n.a. n.a. n.a. Barracouta n.a. 7.500* 7.500 - 0.456 7.044 *Refer back to discovery in 1968. Bream n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Total Auat. . All fields 1585.181 +198.030 77.500 1860.711 45.397 1815.314 6-1 TABLE 2. SUMMARY OF ESTIMATES OF PROVED GAS RESERVES IN MILLION MILLION CUBIC FEET AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS RESERVES IN MILLIONS OF BARRELS IN AUSTRALIA

INITIAL RESERVES AT INITIAL RESERVE AT CtMULATIVlS PRODUCTION TO CURRENT RESERVES AT XEAR BASIN HELD PREVIOUS XEAR'S EOT REVISIONS NEW DISCOVERIES ESS OF CURRENT TEAR END OF CURRENT TEAR END OF CURRENT TEAR

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural Natural Datura! Gas Natural Natural Gat Natural Gas Natural Natural Natural Cat liquids Gas Gas Liquids Gas Liquids Gaa Gas Liquids Liquids Liquids 1960 Boven-Surat. rickanjlnnie 0.025 0.025 0.025 Total Aust. Piekanjinnie 0.025 0.025 0.025 1961 Boven-Surat Hospital Hill 0.069 0.069 0.O69 Piekanjinnie 0.025 0.025 0.025 Cabavin 0.001 0.001 0.001 Total Aust. All fields 0.025 O.OTO 0.095 0.095 „ 1963 Boven-Surat. Roma Fieldc-. 0.026 1.0 ] oma 1.0 0.026 1.0 0.026 1.0 Rolleston Fields 0.028 0.028 0.028 Cabavin 0.001 0.O01 0.001 Bony Creek 0.029 0.029 0.029 Richmond 0.011 0.011 0.O11 Total Aust. All fields 0.095 1.0 1.0 0.095 1.0 0.095 1.0 1964 Boven-Surat Roma Fields 0.026 Soma 1.0 0.026 0.101 1.0 Rolleston Fields 0.028 0.028 ,.0j Cabavin 0.001 0.001 Bony Creek 0.029 0.029 ! 0.001 Richmond 0.011 0.011 ) Back Creek ) Snake Creek ) 0.007 0.007 ) Adavale Gilmore 0.099 0.099 0.099 Cooper Gidgealpa 0.331 1.2 0.331 1.2 0.331 1.2 Amadous Mereenie 1.000 14.5 1.000 14.5 1.000 14.5 Perth Tardarino . n.a. n.a. n.a. Bonaparte Gulf Bonaparte n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Total Aust. All fields 0.095 1.0 1.437 15.7 1.532 16.7 0.001 1.531 16.7 1965 Boven-Surat Roma Fields 0.015 Rona 1<0 -0.004 0.001 0.012 1.0 1 0.001 0.158 0.998 Rolleston Field! 0.028 +0.005 0.033 Pickanjinnie 0.011 +0.021 0.Q32 Cabavin ) Major ) 0.001 0.003 0.004 Bony Creek 0.029 +0.010 0.039 Richmond O.ffil +0.003 0.014 0.001 Back Creek ) Snake Creek ) 0.001 0.009 Oberina. ) 0..T07 +0.001 Pino Ridge 0.014 0.014 Tarravonge 0,002 0.002 Adavale Gllmore 0.291 0.291 Cooper Gidgealpa 0.C90.3319 1.2 0.331 1.2 0.331 1.2 Amadeus Mereeni e 1.000 14.5 +0.192 1.000 14.5 1.000 14.5 Palm Valley 0.100 0.5 0.100 0.5 0.100 0.5 Perth Xardarino n.a. n.a. n.a. Gingin 0.100 n.a. n.a. Bonaparte Gulf Bonaparte n.a. n.a. Gippsland Barracouta 1.800 24-5 1.800 24.5 1.800 24.5 Total Aust. All fields 1.532 16.7 +0.228 2.021 25.0 3.781 41.7 0.001 0.001 3.780 41.699

1966 Bovan-Surat Roma Fields 0.012 Ho la 1.0 +0.006 0.018 1.0 ) 0.002 0.165 0.998 RolleBton Field! 0.033 0.033 Pickanjinnie 0.032 -0.007 0.025 Cabavin ) Major } 0.004 +0.002 0.006 Leichhardt j l Bony Creek O.039 -0.006 0.033 Richmond 0.014 +0.004 0.01E Back Creek > 0.001 Snake Creek 1 0.009 +0.002 0.011 Oberina ) Pine Ridge 0.014 -0.001 0.013 Tarravonga 0.002 +0.007 0.009 Adavale Gllmore 0.291 -0.250 0.041 J 0.041 Cooper Gidgealpa 0.331 1.2 0.331 1.2 0.S31 1.2 Mooaba 0.897 0.897 0.897 Amadeua Mereenie 1.000 14.5 1.000 14.5 1.000 14.5 Palm Valley 0.100 0.5 0.100 0.5 0.100 0.5 Perth lardarino n.a. n.a. Gingin 0.100 0.100 0.100 Dongara n.a. n.a. n.a.: Bonaparte Gulf Bonaparte n.a. Gippsland Barracouta 1.800 24.5 1.800 24.5 1.800 24.5 Marlin 3.500 98.7 3.500 9«.7 3.500 98.7 Total Auat. All fields 3.781 41.7 -0.243 ! 4.397 98.7 7.935 140.4 0.001 0.002 7.934 140.398 1967 Boven-Surat Rosa Fields 0.018 ! ma 1.0 0.018 1.0 0.002 : 0.171 0.998 Rolleston Field) 0.033 0.033 Pickanjinnie 0.025 0.025 . Cabavin ) Major ) 0.006 0.006 teichhardt ) Bony Creek 0.033 0.033 Richnond 0.018 . 0.018 Back Creek ) 0.002 Oberina 1 0.011 0.011 Snake Creek )

Duarran '. - .•'. . 0.001 0.001 Hope Creek 0.002 0.002 Pine Ridge 0.013 0.013 Tarravonga 0,009 0.009 Vallumbilla 0,004 0.004 Adavale Gilaore 0.Q41 0.041 0.041 Cooper Gidgealpa 0.331 1.2 0.331 1'2 0,331 ,1.2 Hooaba 0.897 0.897 0.W7 Darslingla 0.116 4.05 0.116 4.05 0.116 4.05 Aaadeus Merednia 1.000 34.5 1.000 14.5 1.000 U.5 Palm Valley 0.100 0.5 0.100 0.5 0.100 0.J Perth Xardarino n.a. n.a. Gingin 0.100 0.100 Dongara 0.100 n.a. n.a. Bonaparte Gulf Bonaparte n.a. n.a. Gippsland Barracouta 1.800 24.5 1.800 24.5 1.800 24,5 Harlin .•.,,.. 3.500 98.7 3.503 98.7 3.500 98.7 '•-'-'"""' Kingflsh ' "'' \ 0.275 0.275 0.275 Halibut 0.025 0.025 0.025 Total Aust. AU fields 7.935 140.4 0.423 •4.05 8.358 44.45 0.002 0.002 8.356 144.448 6-16

TABLE 2. (Contd)

i 1968 Boven-Surat Roma Fields I 0.018 Bona 1.0 -0.001 0.017 0.002 0.198 0.998 Rolleston Fields 0.033 0.033 1.000 ) Pickanjinnle 0.025 0.025 Cabavln ) Major ) 0.006 0.006 Lelchhardt j Bony Creak 0.033 0.033 Rictaond 0.018 0.018 Back Creek ) 0.002 Oberina ) 0.011 0.011 Snake Creek } Duarraa 0.001 0.001 Pine Ridge 0.013 0.013 Tarravonga 0.009 0.009 VaUumbllla 0.004 0.004 0.004 Hope Creek 0.002 0.002 0.002 Pringle Downs 0.001 0.001 0.001 Pleasant Hills 0.027 0.027 0.027 Adsvale Gilmore 0.041 0.041 0.041 Cooper Gidgealpa 0.331 1.2(7 0.331 1.20 0.331 1.20 Moomba 0.897 0.897- 0.897 Darallngie 0.116 4.05 0.116 4.05 0.116 4.05 Amadous Mereenie 1.000 14.5 1.000 14.5 1.000 14.5 Palm Valley 0.100 0.5 0.100 0.5 0.100 0.5 Perth Yardarl.no ) Mondarra ) 0.4 0.4 0.400 Dongara ) Glngln 0.100 0.100 0.100 Bonaparte Gulf Bonaparte n.a. n.a. n.a. Gippsland Barracouta 1.800 24.5 1.800 24.5 1.800 24.5 Marlin 3.500 98.7 3.500 98.7 3.500 98.7 Kingfish 0.275 0.275 0.275 Halibut 0.025 0.025 0.025 Tuna 0.086 2.0 0.086 2.0 0.086 2.0 Flounder 0.133 3.0 0.133 3.0 0.133 3.0 Snapper, Bream etc. 4.200 55.4 4.200 55.4 4.200 55.4. Total Aust. AU fields 8.358 144.45 -0.001 4.847 60.4 13.204 204.85 0.002 0.002 13.202 204.848 1969 Boven-Surat Roma Fields 0.017 0.017 Rolleston Field i 0.033 Re oa 1.0 0.033 1.0 ) 0.012 0.211 0.0938 Pickanjinnie 0.025 0.025 Cabavin ) Major ) 0.006 0.006 Leichhardt) Bony Creek 0.033 0.033 Richmond 0.018 0.018 Back Creek ) 0.0053 Oberina ) 0.011 0.011 ) Snake Creek ) Duarran 0.001 0.001 Pine Ridge 0.013 0.013 ) Tarravonga 0.009 0.009 ) Vallumbllla 0.004 0.004 • Hope Creek 0.002 0.002 ! Pringle Downs 0.001 0.001 Pleasant Hills 0.027 +0.002 0.001 0.030 i Grafton Range 0.013 0.013 Adavale Gilmoro 0.041 0.041 0.0004 0.0406 Cooper Qidgealpa 0.331 1.2 0.331 1.2 0.001 0.330 1.200 Moomba 0.897 0.897 0.897 Darallngle 0.116 4.05 0.116 4.05 0.116 4.05 Roseneath 0.006 0.2 0.006 0.20 0.006 0.20 Toolachee 0.100 3.5 0.100 3.50 0.100 3.50 Amadous Mereenla 1.000 14.5 1.000 14.5 1.000 14.5 Palm Valley 0.100 0.5 0.100 0.5 0.100 0.5 Perth Zardarlno Mondarra 0.400 0.400 0.400 Dongara Glngln 0.100 I 0.100 0.100 Bonaparte Oulf Bonaparte n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Petrel n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Glppsland Barraeouta 1.800 24.5 1.800 24.5 0.005 0.184 1.795 24.316 Marlin 3.500 98.7 3.500 98.7 3.500 98.7 Kingfish 0.275 0.275 0.275 Halibut 0.025 0.025 0.025 Tuna 0.086 2.0 0.086 2.0 0.086 2.0 Flounder 0.133 3.0 0.133 3.0 0.133 3.0 Snapper. Bream e ;c4.2O0 55.A 4.200 55.4 4.200 55.4 Total Aust. All fields I13.204 204.85 +O.002 0.120 3-7 13.326 208.5'; 0.012 0.196 13.314 I 208.354 Reaarksi- (i) With the exception of Dongara, Zardarino, Glngln,and Mandarra, reserve figures have been referred back to the year of discovery. (li) Associated with the initial exude oil reserves in the Barrow Island field, are soma 0.13 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. To the end of December 1969, some 0.018 trillion cubic feat of this gas had bees flared to the atmosphere and used in toe field during crude oil production operations. Commercial usage of this associated gas la not feasible. 6-17 TABLE 3. PETROLEUM STATISTICS: ORGANIZATIONS COLLATING AND PUBLISHING INFORMATION

ORGANIZATION NATURE OF INFORMATION PUBLICATIONS AND FREQUENCY Department of National Development; Fuel Branch, Melbourne Commercial production of hydrocarbons....Petroleum Statistics - calendar years Refinery capacities and throughputs. Production, consumption, imports,and exports of petroleum products and petrochemicals. Prices. Primary energy patterns, past, present and,future. Bureau of Mineral Resources, Geology and Geophysics: Canberra Exploration, development, and pro­ duction activities and results.. ..Petroleum Newsletters - quarterly Exploration, development, and pro­ duction expenditure Petroleum Newsletters - annually BMR Record 1966/205 Titles Map and Key (permits, leases etc,).Titles Map and Key half yearly Studies (reserves, success ratios, eta)...Records - no regular schedule Reviews of exploration and development...Australian Mineral - annually and Industry Review quarterly Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics: Central Office, Canberra Petroleum products5Gas (town, LPG, and refinery Summary of Principal Factory Crude oil and natural gas production, Products - No. 17 imports and exports State Offices, State Capitals State data in relation to those compiled by Central Office ...No regular publications State Departments of Mines: State Capitals Hydrocarbon reserves, production,and utilization Annual Reports of Departments of Mines Summaries of exploration, development, and production activities. Maps. Petroleum Information Bureau: Melbourne, Sydney Hydrocarbon reserves, production, refining, consumption, trade, finance Oil and Australia, the Figures behind the Facts - annually Australia's sedimentary basins, summaries of exploration, legislation, subsidies, taxation Petroleum Search in Australia - annually Titles Map. Reviews, articles...... Petroleum Gazette- quarterly

TABLE A. CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION OF HYDROCARBONS IN AUSTRALIA

YEAR CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION DEFICIT Liquids Gas* Liquids Gas Liquids Gas •000 bbls MMcf** '000 bbls MMcf '000 bbls MMcf annual daily annual daily annual daily annual daily annual daily % annual daily

Actual 1965 127,250 349 143.3 0.4 2,622 7 g 8 124,628 341 98.0 none 1966 136, U5 372 143.5 0.4 3,398 9.3 "•* 132,747 362 97.5 1967 U9,952 410 152.4 0.4 7,774 21.3 0 a 142,178 390 94.9 1968 164,676 451 215.8 0.6 13,966 38.3 5a *i 150,710 413 91.5 1969 178,979 490 9,375 25.7 16,995 46.5 o 161,984 443 90.5 Forecast M» J H-*0 1970 183,715 503 44,600 122.2 73,745 200 109,970 300 59.8 1971 193,280 530 67,600 185.2 109,865 300 *§ 33,415 228 43.2 1972 203,530 557 95,800 261.7 127,000 348 •§- 76,405 210 37.5 1973 214,575 588 "123,500 338.4 127,000 348 87,570 240 40.8 1974 227,420 623 147,600 404.8 127,000 348 Wa a 100,420 276 44.2 P 1975 242,645 665 170,200 466.3 127,000 348 c*-0q 115,645 317 47.7 p. j» 1976 256,975 704 198,900 543-4 127,000 348 o a 129,975 356 50.6 1977 270,495 740 235,800 741.1 127,000 348 S3 ^ 143,495 393 53.0 1978 286,385 785 270,700 784.6 127,000 348 • P 159,385 437 55.6 1979 304,200 823 305,200 836.2 127,000 348 177,200 486 58.2 D* o * Consumption as fuel only;

feedstock excluded 9spher e ** Source: Fuel Branch.

--"•SIS 18

TABLE 5. EXPENDITURE, DRILLING FIGURES, AND DISCOVERIES

YEAR EXPENDITURE $ lWELL S & FOOTAGE DRILLED DISCOVERIES* EXPLORATION DEVELOPMENT EXPLORATION DEVELOPMENT NFW/ttFD EXT. DPT. SPT. 1957 15,782,094 - 39 68,527 - _ — - _ _ 1958 12,888,240 - 29 66,713 - - - - _ — 1959 U, 455,638 - 19 65,271 - - 1 (Gas) - - — 1960 15,834,204 - 25 85,106 - - 2 (Gas) 1 (Gas) - — 1961 18,034,956 130,000 24 111,975 1 5,591 3 (Gas) 1 (Oil) 1962 31,353,246 2,265,000 78 301,819 10 65,600 1 (Gas) l(Gas) 1(0il) _ _ 1963 40,856,508 2,265,000 100 487,828 22 114,414 2(Gas) 2(0il) 1 (Gas) - - 1964 47,822,454 2,250,190 160 810,597 60 351,712 15 (Gas) 10 (Gas) 1 (Oil) 2 (Oil) 3 (Oil/Gas) 3 (Oil/Gas) 1965 65,554,334 5,299,634 163 889,518 53 2,483 10 (Gas) 5 (Gas) 4 (Oil) 1 (Oil) - - 1 (Oil/Gas) 1 (Oil/Gas) 1966 65,759,246 7,630,842 110 623,524 33 128,591 5 (Gas) 3 (Gas) 1 (Oil) 1 (Oil) 1967 71,408,323 32,608,383 88 4S6,757 191 580,354 5 (Gas ) 1 (Gas) 3 (Oil) 1 (Oil) 1 (Oil/Gas) 3 (Oil/Gas) 1968 87,775,091 54,569,317 86 533,590 146 503,233 2 (Gas) 3 (Gas) 1 (Gas) 3 (Oil) 2 (Oil) 1 (Oil/ + + 3 (Oil/Gas) 1 (Oil/Gas) Gas) - 1969 n.a. n.a. 102 643,40V 159' 640,440 6 (Gas) 3 (Gas) 1 (Oil) 1 (Oil/Gas) 4 (Oil/Gas) — .

TOTAL 488,024,334 107,018,366 1 ,023 5,174,726 675 2,392,418 52 (Gas) 28 (Gas) 1 (Gas) — 16 (Oil) 8 (Oil) 1 (Oil/G as) - 9 (Oil/Gas )12 (Oil/Gas)

* NFW/toT> - New field wildcat , new field discovery. EXT - Extension. DPT - Deeper Pool Test. SPT - Shallower Pool Test.

Provisional figures only.

TABLE 6. EXPLORATION DRILLING - SUCCESS RATIOS, 1957 to end 1969

NUMBER CLASSIFICATION AND STATUS* SUCCESS RATIO - PER CENT OF WELLS DRILLED FOOTAGE NFV01FD EXT DPT SPT FOOTAGE OIL -GAS OIL/GAS OVERALL FOOTAGE

1023 5,117,685 52 (Gas) 28 (Gas) 1 (Gas) - ) 16 (Oil) 8 (Oil) - - ) 895,681 2.3 7.9 2.15 12.4 17.5 9 (Oil/ 12 (Oil/ 1 (Oil/ ) Gas Gas Gas - ) 1 in 43.5 1 in 1 in 1 in 8.1 1 in 5.7 12.7 46.5

* NFW/ftFD - New field wildcat / New field discovery. EXT - Extension. DPT - Deeper pool test. SPT - Shallower pool test. /-!

PAPER 7

ENERGY RESOURCES AND REQUIREMENTS IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA

By: L. J. BRENNAN*

SUMMARY

Western Australia (W.A.) is the largest State of Australia but contains only about 8% of the total population. Economic development in the last few years has been spurred by increasing exports, particularly of alumina and iron ore, so that currently W.A. is the fastest-growing State. Energy reserves have been enlarged by discoveries of oil and gas in exploitable but small quantities, so that energy requirements now exceed energy resources by a large margin. The Fuel Branch of the Department of National Development has forecast that energy consumption in 1979-80 will be more than 3 times the 1968-69 usage. This paper presents a broad view of the situation.

1. INTRODUCTION

Western Australia (Fig.1) .occupies about 33$ of the land mass of Australia and, is the largest State. It extends about 1,500 miles in a north-south direction and about 1,000 miles east-west. Its area is almost 1 million square miles and its coastline is some 4,350 miles. Most of the State is a plateau between 1,000 and. 2,000 feet above sea level, with some isolated prominences rising to 4,000 ft, but there are no outstanding mountain ranges. A little more than one-third of the State lies within the tropics, while the remainder extends southwards through the temperate zone. The climate ranges from tropical and monsoonal with some cyclone activity in the north to typical mediterranean in the south. . 58$ of the State has an annual rainfall less than 10 in., 29$ has between 10 and 20 in., and 13$ has more than 20 in. In general, humidity and rainfall are ... lower in Western Australia than in corresponding latitudes in eastern Australia.

Senior Chemist and Research Officer, Government Chemical.Laboratories,' Perth, Western Australia.

L- iCT!6 7-2

The economic growth of the State since 194-9 can be gauged by comparing statistics for such parameters as gross value of production, number of factories, energy consumption, population, etc. (Tables 1 and 2, Figs 2). By any of these the growth has been considerable and the rate of growth is accelerati'ng atthis time. It is assumed that by 19-49 the post-war confusion had passed and the State was poised for forward movement. By 1959 an industrial boom had begun and population had been boosted by migration. However, - W.A. shared the Australia-wide slowing-down of economic growth in the late 'fifties and early 'sixties. By 1969 the mineral boom had past the embryo stage and the value of signed and impending contracts assured the maintenance of the rate of growth of W.A. in the current economic situation. In the 'sixties, W.A. moved from the position of slowest to that of fastest growing State in Australia.

2. HISTORY

In 1949 the W.A. population was about 532,000 people, and about 62% of these were centred on the capital, Perth. Another 25$ were concentrated in three major areas, and the remaining 13% were sparsely scattered throughout large areas of the State. Primary energy resources within the State were coal (Table 3), mined at Collie, and wood, which grows abundantly in the south-west of the State. Collie coal was used for electric power generation and for rail­ way locomotives, with some minor industrial use for steam raising and processing. Wood (log and sawdust) was used for the domestic market, for industrial steam raising, and for a small (30 ton per day) charcoal-iron blast furnace. Town gas served a largely domestic market and was made from coal imported from eastern Australia. Coke and petroleum requirements were imported.

By 1959 the State's population had increased to 712,000 and this represen­ ted an accelerated rate of increase due to migration. Associated with this were the initiation of the industrial area at Kwinana (adjacent to the Perth Metrop­ olitan Area) and a general increase in agricultural and industrial activity. This was nearly all centred on the existing major centres of population, so that by this date about 65% of the people were associated with the metropolitan and urban areas around Perth. Primary energy resources within the State were unchanged although there had been some change in use. Electric power generation was still almost wholly from Collie coal, and now some gas was being made from this fuel as well as from New South Wales coal. Oil had been discovered but not in exploitable quantity. Wood was still contributing a small share of energy but the establishment of the oil refinery at Kwinana was bringing competitive fuels onto the market. In particular, Collie coal was being displaced as a locomotive fuel.

The next decade (to 1969) was an era of growth and change* Growth in existing industries was complemented by establishment of nei>; industries which themselves expanded. The outstanding example of this establishment-growth pattern is the alumina refinery at Kwinana* It was established in 1963 with an output of 210,000'metric tons, and by 1969 this had quadrupled, with planned expansion to maximum capacity of 1,250,000 tons by the end of 1970. The mineral boom passed rapidly from rumour to reality and boosted the already impressive rate of growth of W.A. In the process of this expansion established patterns of fuel usage were upset.

3. THE PRESENT - 1970

The main use of Collie coal is still for power generation, although oil has begun to encroach to a major degree in this province. As well, gas is now supplied by catalytic reforming of petroleum products. Barrow Island has become 7-3

a commercial oil field. Natural gas at Dongara is proven in exploitable quantity but not yet available. Wood is still losing some of its declining share- of the energy market, both domestic and industrial, although expansion of the charcoal- iron works to produce 60,000 tons per year of iron requires 127,000 tons of wood. Demographic changes have occurred, with small population increases in the areas affected by the mineral boom, but 67$ of the population is still centred on Perth. The population has increased to about 94-6,000 and annual primary energy requirements are about 170 x 10° Btu per capita. Average annual growth rates for 1959-69 of such economic indicators as personal income, retail sales, motor vehicle sales, etc., are about one-third higher for W.A. than for Australia as a whole. -| The Fuel Branch of the ^Commonwealth Department of National Development has forecast for W.A. in 1979-80 a total consumption of primary fuels (Table 4-) of 3.27 times, and of petroleum fuels (Table 5) of 2.98 times, the 1968-69 usage. A review is therefore made of some elements of the situation in 1970, to indicate the base from which W.A. is to expand to this level of energy demand. A. ENERGY RESOURCES

4-. 1 • Coal

Several coalfields are known in W.A., but the best of them and the only one being exploited is at Collie. The field is limited in extent and at a con­ servative estimate contains about 200 million tons of extractable coal. The coal is hydrous, sub-bituminous, and non-caking (Table 3). Collie is 37 miles from the nearest port (Bunbury) and 126 miles south of Perth. The main use for the coal is power generation at Collie (Muja 240 MW, Collie 12.5 MW) and Bunbury (120 MW). Power stations nearer Perth have been converted to or designed for oil fuel. • The secondary use for Collie coal is the declining railway locomotive market. Current annual consumption of coal is about 1.1 million tons. Potential markets exist in an ilmenite upgrading process at Capel, 50 miles from Collie, . and in the development of export markets '• for the coal or for char produced from coal. Realization of these potential markets could double the present consumption in the next 5 to 10 years.

In 1969 an assessment of the Collie field was made for the Minister for Mines. This report2 stresses the problems of expansion beyond the traditional and potential uses outlined above. Even the planned development of Bunbury as a port to accommodate 35,000- to 4-5,000- ton ships may not reduce transport costs sufficiently to enable Collie coal to corapete successfully for the energy market associated with the high-grade ii*cn-ore deposits some 1,200 sea miles to the north. As well, there is an unresolved doubt about the suitability of Collie coal for the reduction process. There are low-grade iron-ore deposits closer to Collie, and the possibility of upgrading them with Collie coal is a perennial consideration which has not yet matured into positive action. The prospect of increased generating' capacity being installed on the coalfield would be post- 1977 on the assumption that expansion of Kwinana power station tcr 720 MW will . satisfy power demands, until the late ly/U's. ihe concision is that Collie coal is not likely to contribute in major degree to increased energy, demand within the State unless there is a considerable investment of capital and a vigorous development of markets. Other coal deposits in W.A. are inferior to Collie coal and their development seems improbable at this time.

4-. 2. Wood Wood'fuel is used industrially to a limited extent in special':circumstances, 7-4

e.g- waste-wood-fired boilers for process steam and log-wood-fired kilns for special bricks. Wood also satisfies a diminishing domestic market where it is being replaced by gas, oil, and electricity. Consumption is currently about 500,000 tons per year and is decreasing. The decline in consumption will not be due to lack of wood but to the obvious inherent disadvantages of wood as a fuel, namely high labour cost for supply and firing, low energy-volume ratio, and high cost of storage and combustion space.

4.3. Oil The State's only commercial oil field at present is at Barrow Island, 40 miles off the coast and 800 air miles north of Perth; but drilling is proceeding in other areas with some encouraging indications. The crude oil from Barrow is low in sulphur and residuals (Table 6). Production is currently about 45,000 bbl. per day and reserves are about 200 million bbl., with the prospect of more oil in the same area. About 27$ of the'oil is processed at Kwinana. Present consumption of petroleum products in W.A. is about 60,000 bbl. per day so that even now there is a considerable deficiency of resources, particularly in relation to specific products such as furnace oil.

4»4» Gas Town gas is currently produced by reforming petroleum feedstock in plants with a total capacity of 13 million cubic feet per day.. Current con­ sumption is about 7.5 million cu.ft./day. Natural gas is available in W.A. at Dongara and Barrow Island. Gas from Dongara, some 200 miles north of Perth, is expected to be available in Perth in 1971. Natural gas on Barrow Island is flared to waste - at the rate of some 10^ standard cubic feet (s.c.f.) during 1969 - and the disposal of this resource highlights the difficulty of matching resources and requirements. Barrow Island is less than 100 air miles from the iron ore- centre of Dampier, but geographic proximity may not mean economic viability. A published figure for natural-gas reserves of 0.8 x 10^ s.c.f. is thought to apply to Dongara only, but this is by no means certain. * This review of energy resources shows the State to be devoid of coking coal and with limited reserves of black coal which are tied to power generation. Oil reserves are small and production is less than the State's requirements in total and in specific items. Natural-gas reserves are small by world (and Gippsland) standards, are not yet available and are perhaps inconveniently located in relation to iron ore deposits.

5* ENERGY REQUIREMENTS

On the broad scale, energy requirements can be predicted on the basis of (i) published information and calculations relating to expansion of existing industries and establishment of new ones; (ii) planned and predicted population increases; (iii) continuing economic trends; and (iv) the assumption that no major technological innovations will change the basis of prediction. This broad scale prediction can be correlated with the admirable forecast consumption of primary energy and petroleum fuels prepared by the Commonwealth Department of National Development.

Some of the industrial activity current and proposed in W.A. is indicated in Fig. 3, which is reproduced by courtesy of the Department of Industrial Develop­ ment, W.A. Not all of the industry is energy-intensive (e.g. salt export) and in the main mineral industries the energy requirement depends on the extent to which the ore is processed. • •• " ••- ' • •• '• • ••• • • "•' •• •••;.-••'-:•• ... •.• .-. • •. •: 12 ; ';:» # Later information puts the capacity of the Dongara field at 0.45x10 s,c.fe 7-5

5.1. Iron Ore

Ore reserves in the Pilbara-Ashburton region are variously estimated at 14. to 20 thousand million tons, containing more than 50% iron. Much of this is higher-grade, with more than 60$ iron. The value of signed and pending contracts seems to be continually increasing and ore production, currently 24. million tons per year, will average 60 million tons per year for the next ten years on present contracts. Ore preparation is not energy-intensive but on this scale of production the energy requirement is significant. Contracts negotiated between government and companies impose processing and developmental commitments on the companies. Hamersley Iron at Dampier is already operating a 2 million ton per year pelletizing plant for which the net thermal requirement is just over 1 million Btu per ton of pellets. The layout • has been designed so that the entire plant can be duplicated when required. The same company has planned the production of metallised agglomerate, which will presumably require'a solid reductant. At Dampier and at Mt. Tom Price the company has installed or planned 4-5 MW of Diesel-generated power and 60 MW of steam-turbine power. Other companies in the general area are not yet at this stage of development but they do have contractual commitments.

A study carried out by the Australian Atomic Energy Commission and referred to by Baxter and Griffiths^ indicated an upper limit of power require-. ments in 1975 of 190 MW at 67$ load factor. This was advanced in 1968 as based on optimistic assumptions which by now have become more fact than optimism. In the light of later developments higher power requirements are unhesitatingly advanced.* Nevertheless, the more energy-intensive production of steel in the area is still subject to unresolved conditions. Baxter and Griffiths-' conclude that "with normal financing, power costs during the 1970's are likely to range between about 1-J- and 2 cents per unit which is far too high to attract large power-consuming industries". Madigan4- is guardedly optimistic about steel production in the Pilbara and lists six "adverse factors which must be examined realistically".

5.2. Bamci te

Processing of bauxite to alumina requires approximately 2 barrels of oil per ton of alumina^, i.e. about 12 million Btu per ton of alumina. The refinery at Kwinana will expand to its maximum capacity of 1.25 million metric tons by the end of 1970. The refinery to be established in the Pinjarra area, 56 miles south of Perth, will have an initial capacity of 420,000 metric tons. The possibility exists that two more refineries will be built adjacent to Perth. No doubt the energy source will be an economic choice between oil and natural gas.

In May, 1970, it was announced that a refinery to produce 1.2 million tons per year of alumina would be established in the Admiralty Gulf area (some 1,34-0 air miles north of Perth), with construction commencing in 1971. The project involves a 30-MW power station and a township of 3,000 people. Provision will be made for expansion to 2.4- million tons, or even to 5 million tons, with correspondingly increased power demand.

* -A later upgraded estimate of power requirement by 1975 is 250 MW at about 80$ load factor. The increased demand is required for increased' export commitments. 7-6

5e3e Nickel This is the current "glamour metal", which is exploited in the Eastern Gold- fields remote from energy resources and shipping facilities. One"company con­ centrates the ore in the mining area (Kambalda) and transports some of the con­ centrate some 4-00 miles by road and rail to Kwinana, where it is refined by the Sherritt-Gordon process. The refinery was designed for 15,000 tons per year of nickel as powder and briquettes, with a fuel-oil requirement of 70,000 tons. It would be surprising if this capacity could not be expanded when required. Plans to establish a smelter in the mining area have been announced.

5.-4. Titanium

Ilmenitic beach sands are mined at Capel, in the south-west of the State, and near Bunbury there is a titanium dioxide plant having a capacity of about 20,000 tons per year. Ilmenite production is about 500,000 tons per year and is increasing. However, the concentration of ilmenite from beach sands is not an energy-intensive process. Plans have been announced for ilmenite beneficiation by carbon reduction of the iron oxide content, followed by an aeration process to remove the iron as iron oxide. The coal requirement is 100,000 tons of Collie coal to upgrade 180,000 tons of ilmenite.' However, ilmenite reserves are estimated at only about 4-0 million tons.

5.5. Salt

The production of salt for export by solar evaporation is currently at the rate of about 2 million tons per year. Requirements of caustic soda for the alumina industry could be met by processing some- of this salt, but the economics of the process demand cheap electrical energy and a market for chlorine. The availability of chlorine could provide a basis for reassessment of ilmenite processing in W.A. The possibility of sufficient cheap power being available to process the salt may exist, because the State Electricity Commission has an installed winter capacity of 590 MW, but the load factor is only about 50%. The planned expansion by 720 MW at the Kwinana power station in the next 6-7 years may introduce an energy resource which can be exploited. Industry which can accept power on an interruptible basis could perhaps negotiate special rates with the Commission.

5.6. Population

Even in these days of computers it is axiomatic that production will not occur without people. W.A.'s population has grown by natural increase and by immigration (Table 1). Demographic changes have resulted from mineral ex­ ploitation. Existing towns have grown and new towns have been established. The nickel boom has created Kambalda and given.new life to Kalgoorlie. The iron-ore developments will enlarge the population of Port Hedland from 2,000 to 12,000 people and create a town of 10,000 people to serve Dampier. Bauxite developments will mean a town of 3>000 people in the Kimberleys, and enlargement .of Pinjarra. In spite of these demographic changes 65% of the population is . likely to remain centred on Perth, and the associated energy demand will fail' most heavily on. the State Electricity Commission for power'and gas and on petrol­ eum fuels for heat and transport; The first 120-MW unit at the new Kwinana power station should be commissioned very soon, and another 600-MW unit should be installed by 1977. The units are oil-fired, with provision for gas firing.

6. CORRELATION WITH FUEL BRANCH FORECAST

The forecast (Table U) for W.A. is that the consumption of primary fuels 7-7 in 1979-80 will be 3.27 times the 1968-69 usage. This is commensurate on the broad scale with the developments outlined above, because the future demand will be large in relation to the existing small energy demand. In comparison, the corresponding figures for Victoria, New South Wales, and South Australia range between 1.70 and 1.74. As the forecast states: "The lower growth rates in Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia are due in large measure to their lack of new major mineral projects commensurate with their already large fuel consumption".

In detail, the forecast shows increased demands for coal in 1972-73 and 1977-78, presumably associated with production of metallized agglomerate. Increased demand for petroleum fuels (Table 5) is attributable to increasing energy requirements for mineral processing, electricity generation, and trans­ port. W.A. 's share of Australia's petroleum usage will rise from 13.4$ in 1968- 69 to 22.1% in 1979-80. Natural-gas reserves are currently small, and this fuel will have to penetrate a market dominated by petroleum fuels j the suggestion is that gas will be reserved for premium markets. In this respect Gartland and Keith5 state: "However, a general consensus of opinion is that the technical advantages (of natural gas) can be assumed as being of the order of 1 cent per therm except where the properties of the gas offer some special benefits. This suggests that where natural gas is priced equal to or up to 1 cent per therm more than its competitors it will gain ready acceptance, but that above this level it will have difficulty in gaining a substantial share "of the industrial market". The growth pattern forecast for natural gas indicates an 8% share of the total W.A. energy market on entry, rising to 12$ in 5 years. The pattern is inter­ esting in that it shows a marked jump in the years 1976-78 and this coincides with a momentary interruption in 1976-77 of the growth pattern of petroleum. This suggests, perhaps, a re-negotiation of contracts about that time. The onward march of'pe"ta*oleum consumption is quickly resumed.

7. CONCLUSION

The decade 1970-80 will see a large increase in energy demand within W.A., and because of a deficiency of indigenous sources the demand will be met largely from imports. Natural gas from Dongara will be available in 1971 and within 5 years may constitute 12$ of the energy market. Consumption of natural gas in 1979-80 is forecast as almost 160 million cubic feet per day. WcA.'s share of the energy consumed in Australia will rise from 8% in' 1968-69 to 14$ in 1979-80. The increased energy demand will be required for mineral processing, generally increased industrial activity, and population growth consistent with the buoyant economic climate.

A real requirement is the provision of cheap power. This has been referred to by various authorities, e.g. Baxter and Griffiths-3 and Madigan^. The Minister for Industrial Development, Mr. C. Court6, has said: "One thing Western Aust­ ralians seem to lose sight of is that although we have plenty of iron ore we are deficient in many of the other things necessary for making steel - partic­ ularly coking coal. Hence our great interest in metallized agglomerates where other forms of coal can be effectively used and at the same time put us in line to supply raw material for what we expect to be an ever-incra asihg proportion of steel made by electric furnace. We plan that'some of this steel will also be made here. This is one reason why we are stepping up our power studies. Large- volume cheap power supplies are the key".

The price of power depends on several factors, of which the fuel cost is only one. Other factors include the costs of labour and of generating and transmission equipment, and of borrowed capital.. A company producing.its own 7-8

power can cost it on the economics and economies of operation. A government producing power for domestic and industrial use can cost the power on a basis which may embrace such factors as financing expansion from profits, and a charging policy such that the industrial sector subsidizes the private consumer - or vice versa. Attracting industry with cheap power could confer a community benefit*which might outweigh a higher price for electricity to domestic consumers.

The problem of supplying cheap power in the light of available re­ sources has probably ceased to be a technological problem and has become one of financing and costing. In this respect W.A. is best viewed as a part of Australia, and the energy requirements of Western Australia should be considered in the light, not of State resources, but of national resources of energy and finance.

8. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Special thanks are due to the officers of the Mines Department W.A., the Department of Industrial Development, and the State Electricity Commission; and to the Librarian, Government Chemical Laboratories. Thanks are due to the Director of the Laboratories for permission to prepare and present this paper. "

9. REFERENCES

(1) Forecasts: Consumption of Primary Energy and Petroleum Fuels. Commonwealth Department of National Development, Fuel Branch, Melbourne, February, 1970.

(2) MENZIES, R.A., and HANRAHAN, D.T. Report on Collie Coalfield. State Mines Control Authority, Sydney, N.S.W., 1969. (3) BAXTER, P., and GRIFFITHS, D.R. Power supplies. Symposium on northern development, Pilbara prospects in the 1970's. Insta. Engrs. (Aust.), Perth Division, May 1968.

(4-) MADIGAN, R.T. Mineral development in the Pilbara. Symposium on northern development, Pilbara prospects in the 1970.'s. Instn. Engrs. (Aust.), Perth Division, May 1968.

(5) GARTLAND, C.F., and KEITH, G.N. Australian sources and consumption of fuel in the 1970's. Instn. Engrs. (Aust.), Ann. Engng. Conf., Melbourne, March 1970.

(6) COURT, C.W. Industrial Review and 'Mining Year Book, 1970. Lamb Publications, Perth, W.A. 7-9

TABLE 1. POPULATION AND MIGRATION

Year Population Population Ratio {%) Net Migration

Aust­ ralia W.A. Perth* W.A.:Aus. Perth*:W.A. W.A. Aus. W.A.:Aus. ('000) ('000) ('000) ('000) ('000)

1949 7908 532 331 6.7 62 8.6 100.1 8.5 1959 10056 712 460 7.1 • 65 1.4 77.2 1.8 1969 12296 946 636 7.7 67 24.3 126.4 19.2 1975+ 1145 746 65 1985+ 1581 1032 65

* This refers to the Perth Statistical Division, which occupies about 2000 square miles, comprising the closely settled 164 square miles of the Perth Metropolitan Area and sparsely settled urban and rural districts.

+ Forecast by courtesy of Department of Industrial Development.

TABLE 2. INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH (Date supplied by Department of Industrial Development)

Unemployment New mot, Net Civilian Number veh.re­ value Year employ­ of Persons Percentage Noti­ Retail gistra­ of ment fac­ regis­ of work fied vac­ sales tions prodn. («000) tories tered force ancies ($M+) ('000) (*M»).

1949 n.a. 2925 .1625 0.7 3739 n.a. 9.6 162.8 1959 193.3 4125, 6074 2.2 849 297.1 17.6 386,4 1969 303.7 5600 4007 1.1 3786 647.6 48.8 1137.8 4165+ 1.1+ 4868+

* Monetary values not corrected for effects of inflation. + Figures for March 1970. n.a. Not available. 10

TABLE 3. TYPICAL ANALYSES (%) OF COLLIE COAL* - Moisture 25.9 Ash 2.7 Volatile matter 28.0 Fixed carbon A3. A Sulphur 0.4 ' ' / Gross C.V. 9300 Btu/lb * Collie coal is hydrous, sub-bituminous, and non-caking.

TABLE 4. CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY FUELS* Year W.A. Australia W.A.cAus. 112 10 * Btu (%) 1960-61 84.4 1193.3 7.1 1964-65 101.6 1460.8 7.0 1968-69 151.6 1838.8 8.2 1969-70 167.7 1935.7 8.7 1974-75 313.0 2606.6 12.0 1979-80 496.4 3515.4 14.1 * Source: Department of National Development. _. _..

TABLE 5. CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM IPRODUCTS * Year W.A. Australia W.A. 12 10^ Btu (%) 1960-61 58.3 457.7 12.7 " 1964-65 72.7 641.9 11.3 1968-69 123.2 919.0 13.4 1969-70 139.0 947.6 14.7 1974-75 239.9 1240.0 19.3 1979-80 367.0 1661.1 22.1 * Source: Department of National Development. TABLE 6. ANALYSIS OF BARROW ISLAND CRUDE OIL Specific gravity @ 60/60°P 0.826 Kinematic viscosity @ 100 F cS 2.12 @ UO°F 1.52 @ 210°F 0.97 Sulphur (% vt.) 0.02 Pour point ( F) 30 Recovered at 360°C {% vol.) 85

TABLE 7. (See footnote, page 5) Source: Baxter, P. and Griffiths, D.R. (Reference 3) Power Energy , (MW) (kWh x 10°) Dampier-Hamersley 61.5 375 Cape Lambert - Cliffs 59.0 356 Hamersley-Hanwri ght 27.5 159 Roebourne 0.5 2 Port Hedland - Goldsworthy 2.0 8 Mt. Newman 32.5 190 Township 2.0 9 Whim Creek 2.0 9 Cape Keraudrin - Sentinel 2.0 A Sundry centres, say ,- i.o 2 190 11U

Some of the more important assucaption s made in ar:rivin g at these figures were: ; (a) All six companies which have agreements with the W.A. Government will be in production by 1975. (b) Some processing commitment s will be in «advanc e of the terms of agreement. (c) -Total shipments will amount to 60 million tons per annum. (d) Of this total, 13 million tons would be in the form of pellets or metallized agglomerates. MINERAL RESOURCES

• Asbestos • Manganas* Haights in Fset $ Bauxite $ Minwal Sands Above 3000 E^

LAKE MCLE

NORTHAMPTON GERAIDTON

AUGUSTA

FIG. 1 WESTERN AUSTRALIA ~s

T-1 "<

JOOr 1750

FIGURE 2. G'owrh pattern of two parameters tyoical of economic growth in Western Australia. ?50 — 1500

200 - 1250

104l

1000

750

500

250 u

FIGURE 3 Western Australia areas of current development February, 1970 (.reproduced by courtasy of Dopt. of Industrial Dtvslopmsnt)

SAUXITI —Amex Bauxite CorporMion hat an agreamem which may teed to « t300.000.000 alumina industry near the Admirerry Gulf eres. CULTURID MARLS of tins* quality ere produced st Kuri 8«y. CygnM Bay end Exmouth Gulf. IIIOM ORS—from V»mpr Sound feed* the Mast furnaces in Eastern Australia *nd Kwinena.

SOLAR SALT—Export her. common- cad from Port Hadland. A funtvar industry >s being established at Demoier

OIL AM «AS— Wastsm Australies (trsi commercial oM ftald is in produc­ tion at Barrow Island. V.L.P. STATION—Tha "Harold E Hoftf baaa—a major and vary modam U.S. Navy V.L.F. communications centre has bm buik st North Wsat Caps

FaAC«MM« industries have been salarjlrahad at Carnarvon and Exmouth GuH.

POTASM AN© SALT- A large tears potash industry M being esreb- Itshed at lake McLaod. Export of solar salt has IRON OR* SUMMARY CARNARVON STAC! Western Australia's high grads iron on TtUCKIIM STATION deposits, estimated at 15.000 million tons An Austrarum-American •snk snionget tha largsst m ths world. They joint project, provides mainly located in the North West fecHrtiea for NASA. region Atraady aignt major companies have SOLAR SALT is bsino fignad agreements with the Stana Gov- supphad to Japan from stnmsmt for ths dsnrslopmant of these Shark Bay. resources Contracts approaching: 696 million tons of on and palletised ore havv bssn writtan with Japanese. British and European steal •nisreets These will ba worth mors than 15.900 million In addition Australian IRON ORB from KooUnoofcs is bsmg will amourw !o 184 million tons axporttd through Oaraldton. valued si >5Vfi million Ths connects represent ths brggest orders ever wrrtlsn tor iron or* m tha OIL AMD NAS-Ths potential niatorv or Ifta ttsel industry. Sine* 1904. eubstanttalgeehard isbeing sxplorsd at .itixe then »&;«.> million has bean spam by Oongera. Tna) could Isad to a natural tha companies in mint development rail­ BrspspalrnatoParth. ways, townshio*. deep wstar pom. ROCS LORSTIR (crayfish) pallatising and iron making facilities. *nts csil tor an additional Mp*ndr>ur* Australia's biggest tingle fishery ., currsntrv twimstad to exceed si 500 "it'iion KWINANA—developing reprdfy as * TWJtor cantrsj of Saavy industry—plant completed or undar construction in crude a*, atumma and nickel refining, iron and steel, cement papsr. fartilrsar. major power station, brickwork*. SAIMlTi from trw Darting flange feeds, ths alumina ratuvcry at Kwinena. Try company wW eetebNsh a further lanrrary st rrnjarra. _ Koeds ILMSNITI daoosits—« growing 4R*rfwsy« sxport and fasd for • trtanium dioxide plant at tunbury. • •••• *ro»oaad Wadwsvn Only major roads and standard gauge oil TIMtMSR—Karri and larrah forsatt m STANDARD •AltOS-Tho way lint are 'Itirstrttad 100.000 nuk* ,-.i tha south west provida quality hard- 4 ft. 84 in. rail proiact linking xisds and a 4.000 mil* network of 3 h. >»,.-. woods tor bunding, construction and Kalgoorile to Frsmantta ha* bean gauge railway line compress tr» land trsn«- sxport. com pasted and an unbroken p»t patiem. 20.000 milee ol undup'..«;». standard gauge railway now as routst link major cxntrss wnhm tha WOOD CHIPS-Urgo testa ..port spans tha nation Stale and s Ststo shiprxnq «-v>.^ proviost industry it planned to supply Japansaa SCAU IN Milt] saa uanaport sround (rwi. t«m paper miHa. >0 0 JO '00 Only place nmm r*wvsm to aevaloomanr tm included on ihis m»p 8-1

PAPER 8

STUDY OF NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE STRATEGIES FOR AUSTRALIA

By: J. E. HAYES'"-, J. B. HERBERT*, and R. A. SLIZYS*

SUMMARY

This paper gives the results and main conclusions from a programme of nuclear power investigations carried out within the State Electricity Commission of Victoria during the period 1967-69. The objective of the work was to deter­ mine the appropriate timing for the establishment of nuclear fuel cycle facilities in Australia, and the likely scope of nuclear power generation.

1« INTRODUCTION

It was recognized at an early stage in the investigations forming the subject of this paper that a detailed study of possible alternative fuel-cycle developments would form an important part of a full understanding of the likely role of nuclear power generation in this country and also give an indication of the relative merit of different nuclear power plant types.

The work was organized to emphasize differences in the estimated magnitude and pattern of costs associated with alternative enriched and natural uranium based fuel cycles of sufficient capacity to meet estimated local demand during, the period to the end of this century. ^Consideration was given to the possibility of developing export markets for nuclear fuel cycle services, but no allowance has been made in the estimates for additional fuel cycle capacity, over local requirements,,

It has not been possible in this paper to report the full scope of *the ».. fuel cycle studies carried out in this programme .of work,, but the results lead-, ing to the main "conclusions are included, with details of the main data- and assumptions on which the studies have been based.

State Electricity Commission of Victoria. 8-2 •

2. ESTIMATION OF FUTURE DEMAND FOR AUSTRALIAN NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE SERVICES

The timing and scope for establishment of nuclear fuel cycle facilities in Australia will depend on future growth of nuclear power generation in this country and the nature of associated Government policies concerning import and export of nuclear materials and fuel cycle services.

Dealing first with the prospects for export from Australia, there appears to be good potential for export of both raw and processed uranium and zirconium fuel jycle materials with the anticipated growth in overseas demand over the next decade and beyond. However, the position with respect to fuel cycle services, such as fuel element fabrication, uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing, appears less favourable.

It is expected that by 1980 those countries with substantial dependence on nuclear power generation, such as the U.S.A., the European nations, and Japan, will have developed a large measure of independence in nuclear fuel cycle capability for commercial and strategic reasons. Economies of scale are an important facet of fuel cycle facility opera tions? and manufacturers in these countries, with large-scale production based on their substantial captive domes­ tic markets, are expected to dominate the world market in readily exportable fuel cycle services. It is therefore likely to be at least a decade later before establishment of nuclear fuel cycle facilities outside these countries could be justified on the basis of export potential, even after taking account of local cost advantages such as cheap electrical energy which might otherwise justify establishment of a uranium enrichment facility in a country such as Australia.

Thus,as far as this study is concerned, no allowance is made for export of nuclear fuel cycle services in estimating possible demand- on Australian fuel cycle facilities to the end of the century. In fact, in addition to estimating on the basis that as a matter of Government policy local fuel cycle facilities are established from the outset of commercial nuclear power generation in •Australia, the prospect has been considered of importing fuel cycle services until the scale of local demand is either sufficient to support reasonably commercial local facilities or necessitates establishment of local facilities for strategic reasons.

The estimate of future growth of nuclear power generation in Australia which forms the basis of this study has been developed from consideration of the possible future growth of demand for electrical energy and the present and likely future competitive situation of fossil fuels in each of r,he States.

Growth in electrical energy consumption in each of the States has been considered in two parts. In the short term to about 1980, growth rates based on electrical energy consumption statistics over the past 8 years have been used, with allowance for likely short-term competition for the energy market in each State. Beyond 1980 electrical energy consumption growth rates are assumed to i-"^: i*5 rrndually to the end of the century, to obtain consistency with estimated growth of totc'sl energy consumption based on population predictions. •'".<»•

Estimates of base-loaded and total installed generating'capacity for each State have been derived from the estimates of growth of electrical energy consumption after allowing for generation, transmission, and distribution losses and a margin for capacity reserve.

The time of introduction and subsequent penetration of nuclear power generation into each of the State generating systems is difficult to estimate 8-3 at this stage, and the best that could reasonably be achieved was to estimate upper and lower extremes of growth of nuclear generating capacity.

The location of the major load centres of each of the State systems near to the coast presumes that competition with bulk imported fuel oil should determine the earliest time of introduction of nuclear power regardless of local fuel resources. Based on the financial ground rules being used by most State power generating authorities, and using the most commonly quoted price for imported fuel oil, nuclear power plants of less than 500 MW (e) unit capacity are unlikely to compete with oil-fuelled generating plant. If it is assumed that the largest acceptable unit must not constitute more than 12-g$ of the installed capacity at the time of its first operation, nuclear power plant is not likely to be introduced until an interconnected installed capacity of at least U,000 MW(e) has been reached. Some future restrictions on import­ ation or use of fuel oil might lead to earlier introduction of nuclear power plant in the smaller States with no other local fossil fuel resources, but developments of this nature have not been considered.

For those States with substantial established or reasonably assured reserves of coal and also with prospects of substantial natural gas reserves, the advantageous cost/size relation of nuclear power plant was taken into account along with the best estimates of likely range of nuclear and fossil- fuelled generation costs to determine the unit size of competitive nuclear plant and therefore the estimated time of operation of first nuclear power plants in these States. The rate of growth of nuclear power generation follow­ ing the time of its first introduction in each State has been estimated to range from about 50% to 100% of additions to base load generation capacity, in order to reasonably represent the uncertainty in the competitive position of the alternative fuels.

The estimated range of possible nuclear power generation capacity installed in Australia to the end of the century is shown in Fig. 1.

Working from the nuclear generating capacity estimates, the growth in domestic demand for nuclear materials and fuel cycle services is determined using flow sheets' similar to those shown in Fig. 2. Here the pressurized water reactor .(PWR) has been used as representative of the enriched uranium reactor type and the CANDU pressurized heavy water reactor as representative of the natural uranium.reactor type. The quantities shown in the flow diagrams represent equilibrium replacement quantities only and need to be adjusted for inventory and pre-equilibrium replacement requirements•

Commercial fast breeder reactors, where considered, have been assumed to be installed for operation in Australia only after 1990 and it has been also assumed that the rate of installation would be restricted by the availability of locally produced plutonium.

3. FUEL-CYCLE COST DATA AND-ASSUMPTIONS

At the present early stage in the development of commercial nuclear fuel cycles throughout the world, it is difficult to establish estimates of cost for all fuel cycle stages. The data used in this paper have been drawn mainly from recently published works, but it has been necessary to also seek the advice of overseas organizations in areas where cost data have not otherwise been available. ..„'.:......

'The approach adopted has been to develop cost-size relations'"for the / various^fuel cycle facilities, being careful to limit extrapolations beyond 8-4 the range of known cost estimates. To obtain consistency in cost levels, all estimates are expressed in 1967-68 U.S. dollars and no account is taken in this study of future escalation of the base costs.

3.1. Uranium Concentrates (UoOg or Yellowcake)

No attempt has been made to investigate the cost structure of the uranium mining and milling industry, and UrjOg is assumed to be purchased at quantity- independent rates. A purchase price of |U.S.7.50 per lb-has been assumed for the commencement of the fuel cycle study period (1973), and allowance is made for moderate price increase to take account of the necessity to develop progress­ ively less economic uranium reserves to meet the growth in demand to the end of the century.

3.2. Uranium Conversion

The capital and operating costs of plants for conversion of UoOg to UF/- the chemical form, of uranium used in enrichment processes - were deduced from recent American estimates.^ ""^ The study has been based on a capital cost of $U.S.8.7m for a 1,000-tU/yr plant with a cost/size exponent of 0.5, a variable material cost of $>U.S. 0.44/kgU based on fluorine usage, and a total annual operating cost of $U.S.1m for a 1,000-tU/yr plant with a cost/size exponent of 0.81. The total cost (f>/kgU) for converting uranium recovered from spent fuel was assumed to be 10$ higher than that for fresh U-^Og. Prior to establishment of local'conversion capability, imported conversion services have been assumed to cost $U.S.2.3/kgU.

3.3. Uranium Enrichment

In an attempt to determine the relative merits of the two most common methods for uranium enrichment - i.e. gaseous diffusion and gas ultracentrifuge - costs have been developed for both processes. However, the generally sensitive nature of information on uranium enrichment, combined with the early stage of development of the centrifuge process, does not at present permit reliable comparison on consistent grounds. Nonetheless, the comparison presented in this study might form the basis of future work as more information becomes available.

Available cost information for gaseous diffusion enrichment applies to larger-capacity plant than might reasonably be installed in Australia up to the end of the century, but some guidance has been obtained on extrapolation of the published cost information to smaller plant capacities. For a gaseous diff­ usion enrichment plant of 1,000 t separative work per annum capacity, a capital cost of $U.S.190m has been derived, and a cost/size index for larger capacity plants of 0.67 appears appropriate.

The cost of electrical energy, which forms a substantial part of the overall cost of uranium enrichment using the gaseous diffusion process, was estimated to be $U.S.4.5/taWh for bulk supply in Australia at an advantageous location.. The direct electrical energy usage of the gaseous diffusion process is commonly taken to be 2.4 MWh/kg separative work, and this figure has been adopted. The annual operating costs, excluding the direct electrical energy cost, were deduced to be $U.S.8.4m for a 1,000-t/yr plant, and a cost/size exponent of 0.14 was derived for larger plants.

The costs used in this study for ultracentrifuge enrichment were baged on Dutch information' qualitatively confirmed by their British colleagues.0 The greatest uncertainty in costing gas centrifuge enrichment is associated with the lifecof the centrifuge units themselves. A 5-year life -has been assumed ; • 8-5 in this study, but there is reasonable assurance of longer life, giving lower costs for enrichment by this means.9

Current United States Atomic Energy Commission list prices have been assumed'in this study for imported enrichment requirements.

3.4.. Nuclear Fuel Element Fabrication

The capital, materials, and operating costs for fabrication of enriched uranium fuel elements and the associated cost/size relations for varying annual throughput have been based on American estimates.'' To ensure reasonable consist­ ency in the basis of costing, estimates of fabrication plant capital, material, and operating costs for natural uranium and fast reactor fuel have been based on the estimates for enriched uranium fuel.

For natural uranium type fuel, allowances have been made for savings in fabrication cost arising from avoidance of criticality problems, greater simplicity in handling and assembly, reduced cladding cost due to use of a shorter rod length, and reduced pelletizing cost due to use of a larger pellet diameter than for the reference enriched uranium fuel design. Allowance has been made for difference in cost of conversion to UO2 of uranium feed material for natural and enriched type fuel.

Prior to establishment of local fuel fabrication capability, the cost ^ of imported fuel fabrication services'has been based on American cost predictions for enriched uranium fuel, and an estimated $U.S.30/kgU has been used for natural uranium fuel.

Owing to the present uncertainty surrounding fast breeder reactor fuel design and fabrication processes, a detailed appraisal of fabrication cost could not be justified. Instead the fabrication cost of the highly enriched plutonium fuel for the core was assumed to be twice thab for enriched uranium thermal reactor fuel for the same annual throughput (kg of heavy metals), whereas the fabrication cost for the depleted uranium breeder elements wds taken to be equal to that for an equivalent throughput of natural uranium type fuel.'

3*5. Transport and Chemical Processing of Spent Fuel

Capital and operating costs and cost/size relations for chemical pro­ cessing of spent fuel have also been derived from American estimates.^ The costs adopted for chemical processing of spent natural and enriched fuel are essentially the same for facilities with the same daily throughput, but a nominal allowance has been made for the lower specific fission product activity of spent natural uranium fuel. The chemical processing cost for spent fast breeder reactor fuel was assumed to be the same as for spent enriched uranium thermal reactor fuel when allowance is made for the relative proportions of high irradiation level spent fuel from the core and lower irradiation level breeder zone fuel. No allowance has been made in this study for- the possible effect on spent fuel processing costs of the different fast breeder reactor fuel cladding materials.

The average cost of transport of spent fuel from nuclear power plants in Australia to ideally located central chemical processing facilities has been assessed as $U.S.3/kg of spent natural uranium fuel, $U.S.6/kg of spent enriched uranium fuel, and $U.S.9/kg"of spent fast, breeder reactor core and breeder zone fuel combined. Allowance has been made in the study for progressive reduction in transport costs as the scale of spent fuel transport operations increases. It has been assumed in these studies that spent fuel produced.'in.Australia 8-6 would not be reprocessed overseas, but in reality some spent fuel, particularly enriched uranium, might be sent overseas for reprocessing.

3.6. Plutonium Utilization

At the present stage of development of nuclear power generation it is generally assumed that the most advantageous use for plutonium will be as fuel for fast breeder nuclear power plants, and it is a basic assumption of this study that all plutonium produced in Australia would be retained in this country for this purpose. Use of plutonium in place of enriched uranium in thermal reactor fuel is unlikely to be a proposition in Australia because of the small scale of plutonium recycle operations which could be supported by local require­ ments ahead of the probable time of introduction of fast breeder reactors. How­ ever, to cope with the possibility that it may be economic to reprocess spent enriched uranium fuel ahead of the introduction of fast breeder reactors, it is assumed that a fissile plutonium credit of 75% of the value of fully enriched uranium be added to the credit for recovered uranium in determining the commer­ cial feasibility of early chemical reprocessing operations. This assumed plut­ onium credit is broadly equivalent to the value of plutonium for use in place of enriched uranium in thermal power reactor fuel. No credit has been assumed in the study for plutonium until it is recovered from spent fuel and no specific charge has been made for storage of spent fuel up to the time of chemical processing, although it is recognized that spent-fuel storage may entail some small cost.

To determine the fast breeder programme which can be supported by plut­ onium stocks in Australia, a total initial inventory of 3 kg fissile plutonium per MW(e) of fast breeder power plant capacity and a total direct plutonium inventory doubling time of 12 years have been assumed.

3.7. Heavy Water Production

The supply of heavy water requirements is assumed in this study to be part of the natural uranium fuel cycle, as similar strategic and commercial considerations apply to local Australian production of heavy water as to uranium enrichment for the enriched fuel cycle.

The heavy water production costs used in this study have been based on Bancroft's'0 recent cost information and Proctor and Thayer's more dated tech­ nical parameters for the GS or hydrogen sulphide exchange process. For a 200- t/yr plant, a capital cost of $U*S.60m with a cost/size exponent of 0.88 has been used in this study to determine the capital cost of heavy water production facilities of up to 1,600 t/yr capacity. Similarly, for a 200rt/yr plant a fixed, annual operating cost of $U.S.2.7m with a cost/size exponent of 0.54 and a variable operating cost for heat and electrical energy of $U.S.3.9/lb D20 have been developed from the reference information by consideration of basic operating costs in Australia. The extrapolation of costs from the 200- to AOO-t/yr capacity range to 1,600 t/yr !.*ts been based on the assumption that the larger plants would use a greater number of basic production units of the same capacity as employed in the smaller plants.

The prospect of lower-cost heavy-water production in association with ammonia synthesis plants has not been considered in this study but is recognized as a promising process, particularly for production in Australia on a relatively modest scale.

'Imported heavywater has been costed at &tT.S.2l/lb, including an allowance for transport to Australia. 8-7

U. NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME A computer programme, entitled FUELDEV, has been written by the Computer Services Department of the State Electricity Commission of Victoria to facili­ tate study of the merits of possible alternative fuel cycle development programmes. The programme, which is written for an IBM 360 computer, determines the optimum timing for establishing a prescribed programme of fuel cycle facilities to meet the estimated local Australian demand for fuel cycle services. In determining the optimum timing of each fuel cycle facility, account is taken of preproduction to meet future growth in demand and the optimum condition is determined by minimizing discounted present worth over the duration of the study period.

The programme has been designed to handle a vide range of fuel cycle developments based on differing nuclear plant types but is limited to the extent that there is no provision for the sharing of facilities between fuel cycles of differing type. Also, at this stage of its development the programme can handle only one type of each fuel cycle facility at a time, making it impracticable, for example, to consider a programme involving a combination of ultracentrifuge and gaseous diffusion enrichment.

The programme generates sufficient information for determining the relative scale of parallel fast-breeder and thermal-reactor fuel cycles where the level of plutonium stocks is the main connecting factor.

Basic fuel cycle technical and cost data, the estimated growth in demand for nuclear power generation, the prescribed programme of capacities of .fuel cycle facilities and the financial ground rules form the main input to the programme, and the output is given in terms of fuel cycle facility installation schedules with associated annual and present-worth capital and operating costs.

With a typical run taking 3-4 minutes of computer time, the programme has proved useful in assessing a wide range of possible alternative fuel-cycle ' developments for Australia.

5. SCOPE OF STUDIES PRESENTED

The studies presented were chosen to illustrate differences in programme and cost for natural and enriched uranium-based fuel cycles taking into account the major factors likely to be of effect between 1973 and 2000 A.D.-, the period of the studies. Allowance has been made for developments beyond 2000 A.D. in determining fuel cycle facility timing and capacity over the last few years of the study period.

The natural uranium fuel cycle studies are based on the requirements for CANDU type nuclear power plant and include heavy water production capability. For the enriched uranium fuel cycle studies a wider choice of nuclear power plant types is available, but rather than develop a "mix" of the requirements of these alternatives, the studies have been based on the pressurized-water reactor (PWR) as,typical of the more common enriched uranium-fuelled nuclear power plant.

Both early fuel cycle independence, assumed to be required by,1980 in these studies,-and a more gradual introduction of local fuel cycle "facilities, based on near-commercial scale of production, are considered for both high ,and low estimates of growth rate of nuclear power generation in Australia. .Thev.,. effect on natural and enriched uranium fuel cycles of the possible introduction :,pf fast breeder reactors into Australia is also considered. 8-8

All present-worth costs are discounted to 1976, the first year of nuclear power generation in Australia, and an interest and discount rate of 8-§/£ per annum has been used throughout the above studies. However, the studies were also carried out at &^% and 12% per annum to test the sensitivity of the results to variations in the interest rate.

The effect of alternative fuel cycle processes has only been examined for the uranium enrichment phase, where both the gas ultracentrifuge and diffusion processes have been studied. The results should not be regarded as an economic comparison of these processes but rather as an indication of the likely effect of their differing cost/size relations on fuel cycle costs in the early stages of development of fuel cycle independence in Australia. Unless otherwise stated, the enriched fuel cycle studies presented in this paper assume the more proven diffusion enrichment process.

6. ALTERNATIVE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE PROGRAMMES FOR AUSTRALIA

Using the computer code FUELDEV, fuel cycle facility installation pro­ grammes have been developed to meet the demand represented by the estimated high and low nuclear generation programmes based on alternatively natural and enriched uranium-fuelled systems. The estimated extent of possible penetration of Australian nuclear generation capacity by fast breeder type plant is shown in Fig. 3. With the assumed 12-year doubling time for fast breeder plutonium inventory, the rate of installation of fast breeder plant during the study period is determined primarily by the level of plutonium stocks produced by thermal reactor plant.

The studies show that a natural uranium fuel cycle can support a subs­ tantially larger fast breeder reactor programme than-can an alternative enriched fuel cycle and also the fairly obvious fact that the rate of installation of fast breeder reactors is strongly dependent on the scale of early thermal re­ actor programmes if complete dependence on-Australian plutonium production is assumed. It is possible, therefore, to conclude that once it is clearly established that fast breeder reactors offer lower generating cost to nuclear plant users with a captive plutonium supply, than an added economic incentive should be available to accelerate the rate of installation'of plutonium-producing thermal nuclear power plants. It is important to realize that if a clear-cut incentive exists to maximize the fast breeder installation rate, then much of the difference in the plutonium production rate of natural and enriched uranium fuelled plant might be offset by re-optimising the enriched fuel cycle for plutonium production.

The major differences between the fuel cycle installation programmes for the scope of studies presented in this paper are shown in Tables 1 and 2. Of the many conclusions which can be drawn from these tables, the most interesting is that there is much less difference between the installation programmes for 1980 independence and progressive installation for a natural fuel cycle than is the case for an enriched fuel cycle. However, the successful development of the ultracentrifuge enrichment process should improve the situation for early establishment of enriched fuel cycle independence in Australia.

7. COMPARISON OF NUCLEAR FUEL COST ESTIMATES

Estimates of total fuel cycle cost, including the cost of uranium supply, are compared in Figs. 4 to 7 for the various alternative conditions within the scope of these studies.• To more clearly present the comparison between the costs of natural and enriched uranium fuel cycles, the enriched fuel cycle cost estimates 8-9 are presented in terms of percentage variations from the cost for an equivalent natural uranium fuel cycle.

7.1. General Comparison of Enriched and Natural Uranium Fuel Cycles

Based on commercial fuel cycle cost levels and including heavy water as part of the natural uranium fuel cycle, the natural uranium reactor's fuel cycle inventory costs are considerably higher and its annual replacement costs lower than those of an equivalent enriched uranium reactor, resulting in higher overall annual costs for the natural uranium fuel cycle in a rapidly expanding nuclear system. This situation is expected to persist until the rate of thermal nuclear power plant installation falls below approximately '\2% per annum. On the basis of present estimates of the growth of nuclear power and providing that the possible installation of fast breeder reactors is ignored, this fuel cycle cost advantage for the enriched uranium fuel cycle would be expected to persist until after the end of the century.

A decision to establish complete fuel cycle independence in Australia ahead of the time when this step would be reasonably justified commercially alters the economic comparison between natural and enriched uranium fuel cycles, as will be shown in the next section.

7.2. Early Versus Progressive Fuel Cycle Independence

The effect on fuel cycle cost of a policy leading to establishment of complete fuel cycle independence in Australia as early as 1980 can be gauged by- reference to Figs. U and 5. As far as the natural uranium fuel cycle is con­ cerned, there is little difference in the estimated fuel cycle cost whether a policy of early independence or more progressive establishment of fuel cycle capability is adopted, although with the delayed growth of demand for fuel cycle services of the low nuclear programme a cost penalty is evident for early independence.

The situation with enriched fuel cycles is more marked, there being wide variation in estimated cost with variation in estimated growth in demand, choice of enrichment process, and the timing of fuel cycle independence. From compar­ ison of Figs. U and 5 it can be seen that a considerable penalty would result from a decision to establish complete enriched fuel cycle independence ahead of the time when substantial local nuclear power generation is assured. Assum­ ing gaseous diffusion enrichment, delay in the growth of nuclear generation, as illustrated in Fig. J+ by the estimates for the low nuclear programme,.would result in a particularly high cost penalty due to the necessarily large capacity of the initial enrichment facility based on this process. The alternative enrich­ ment process based on the gas centrifuge, once proven commercially feasible, would ease the financial burden associated with the early establishment of fuel cycle independence, as it is an expected basic feature of this enrichment process that capacity can be closely adjusted to match progressive increases in demand.

7.3. Effect of Fast Breeder Reactors

The estimated effect on fuel cycle coats of introduction of fast breeder reactors in Australia as early as possible after 1990 can be obtained by com­ parison of Fig. 5 and 6, both of which assume progressive nuclear fuel cycle independence. The most interesting result to be drawn from comparison of^'these figures is that the relative cost position, of the natural uranium fuel cycle,, can be expected to improve.from the time of introduction of fast, breeder reactors. With an assumed high nuclear growth rate the introduction of fast;breeder reactors 8-10

might result in as much as a 10^ cumulative present worth advantage for the natural uranium fuel cycle by the end of the century, whereas otherwise parity with the enriched uranium fuel cycle might only just have been achieved by this time if fast breeder reactors were not to be available.

At the lower limit of estimated nuclear growth rate, the effect of fast breeder reactors on the relative costs of the natural and enriched fuel cycles is less marked during the study period, so that as far as developments during this century are concerned both the.feasibility of the fast breeder reactor and the magnitude of growth rate of nuclear power generation are important factors in the decision between a natural or an enriched uranium fuel cycle for Australia.

7.k- Effect of Variation of Interest and Discount Rate

Comparison of Figs. 5 and 7 indicates the effect of varying the interest and discount rate from 8-g$, which is typical of present power generating author­ ity rates in Australia, to 6.25$, which is representative of Government rates for development projects and 12$, which is more representative of commercial rates of return.. The results are generally predictable, .with the lower rate favouring the higher early investment pattern of the natural uranium fuel cycle and the higher rate favouring the deferred capital investment pattern which is characteristic of the enriched uranium fuel cycle with progressive establishment of fuel cycle independence. With the present trend toward progressively higher rates of return on capital investment, the effect of interest rate on the decision between alternative fuel cycle types might prove an important factor.

8. ESTIMATED GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR URANIUM IN AUSTRALIA

Fig. 8 shows the estimated range of cumulative uranium consumption for power generation in Australia for representative natural and enriched fuel cycles with and without the later introduction of fast breeder type plant. On the basis of these estimates it can be seen that at the most recent stated level of assumed reserves of uranium in Australia, estimated to be recoverable at less than $U.S.10/lb U^Og, uranium requirements for power generation alone could be met until some time between 1987 and 1995, depending on the type of fuel cycle and the rate of growth of nuclear power generation in this country.

With the commonly-accepted eight-year lead time from discovery to commercial production from new uranium reserves, exploration in Australia for additional uranium could not be justified until the end of the 1970's at the earliest if there were to be no other use for uranium in Australia and no export to overseas markets. However, if local reserves and, in particular, local uranium mining and milling capability are to be adequate to meet the possible demand through the 1990's, it could be advisable to encourage grox/th in the Australian uranium industry by permitting substantial prior export from establ­ ished reserves. It should not be necessary to further restrict export of uranium from Australia to guarantee local supply for power production purposes, as the present level of assured reserves secured under the existing export embargo will provide a more than adequate lead time for establishment of reserves to meet additional domestic requirements.

9. CONCLUSIONS

Recognizing that local fuel cycle capability will need t.o be progress­ ively establish commitment to nuclear power generation ; "increases, and proyicUng that local facilities^w^ ; 8-11 imported costs can be reasonably matched, an enriched uranium fuel cycle can be expected to maintain a cost advantage until the end of this century.

The introduction of fast breeder reactors could be expected to improve substantially the relative cost position of the natural fuel cycle but, as it is unlikely that fast breeder reactors will be proven commercially viable much before 1980, it would hot be reasonable to credit the natural fuel cycle with this advantage in any decision taken before then.

Establishment in Australia of complete nuclear fuel cycle independence, if taken ahead of an assured and substantial growth in nuclear power generation, would entail considerable risk of higher fuel costs. This is particularly so for the enriched uranium fuel cycle although the successful development of the gas centrifuge enrichment process could reduce the magnitude of the cost penalty associated with early independence. In the light of the present favourable economic position of fossil fuel generation in Australia, it is particularly important that decisions determining both fuel cycle type and timing of local fuel cycle facilities await a greater assurance of growth of nuclear power generation than is likely to be available until the latter part of this decade.

On the basis of present estimates of growth of nuclear power generation in Australia, the level of assured local uranium reserves recoverable at low cost should be sufficient to meet requirements for power generation until the later 1980's. In order to prepare the Australian uranium industry for the expected increase in local demand after this date, exports of uranium should be positively encouraged in the near future, to establish large-scale economic production. However, it does not seem likely that a similar early establishment of fuel cycle services capability in Australia could be commercially supported by export prospects. REFERENCES

(1) JACKSON AND MORELAND, S.M. STOLLER ASSOCIATES. Current status and future technical and economic potential of light water reactors. WASH 1082. March, 1968.

(2) ARTHUR D. LITTLE, INC. Competition in the nuclear power supply industry. NYO-3853-1. Dec, 1968.

(3) UNITED STATES ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION. Report on the nuclear industry, 1968.

(4.) BECHTEL CORPORATION. Future prospects of light water reactors - report submitted to State Electricity Commission of Victoria, August, 1968.

(5) UNITED STATES ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION. Selected background inform­ ation on uranium enriching. ORO-668, March, 1969.

(6) UNITED STATES ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION. Private communication, 6th March, 1970.

(7) Technical and economic aspects of uranium enrichment in Europe - a report on a one-day symposium organized by Netherlands Atoomforum, at Utrecht, Holland, 30th May, 1969. ' Nuclear Engng Intntl, 1969, 2A> 580 - 583.

(8) UNITED KINGDOM ATOMIC ENERGY AUTHORITY. Private communication, 27th Feb., 1970.

(9) UNITED KINGDOM ATOMIC ENERGY AUTHORITY. ~Private communication, 13th April, 1970.

(10) BANCROFT, A.R. Canadian approach to cheaper heavy water (1967). AECL-3044. February, 1968.

(11) PROCTOR, J.F., and THAYER, V.R. Economics of heavy water production. Chem. Engng Progr., 1962, ^8, 4, 53-61, • * • * * m t

TABLE 1. TYPICAL FUEL FACILITY INSTALLATION PROGRAMMES FOR ENRICHED FUEL REACTORS

Units 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1980 INDEPENDENCE LOW NUCLEAR PROGRAMME Diffusion Enrichment - Conversion ktU/yr 0.6 3 4 Enrichment ktswu/yr 0.5 3 4 Centrifuge Enrichment - Conversion ktU/yr 0*18 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.6 Enrichment ktswu/yr t>15 0.5 1 2 3 Fabrication tU/day 0.35 1 2 4 Reprocessing and Reconversion tU/day 0.7 1 2 HIGH NUCLEAR PROGRAMME Diffusion Enrichment - Conversion ktU/yr 0.65 1.2 2.4 4 4 Enrichment ktswu/yr 0.5 1 2 4 ' Centrifuge Enrichment - Conversion ktU/yr 0.35 0.6 1.2 2.4 4 Enrichment ktswu/yr 0-25 0.5 1 2 4 Fabrication tU/day 0.5 1 2 4 Reprocessing and Reconversion tU/day 0*7 1 2 2 PROGRESSIVE INSTALLATION (WITHOUT FAST BREEDER REACTORS) HIGH NUCLEAR PROGRAMME Conversion ktU/yr 1.2 2.4 4 4 Diffusion Enrichment ktswu/yr 1 2 4 4 Fabrication tU/day 1 2 4 4 Reprocessing and •Reconversion tU/day 0.7 1 2 2 •.PROGRESSIVE INSTALLATION (WITH FAST BREEDER REACTORS) HIGH- NUCLEAR PROGRAMME Enriched Fuel Reactor - Conversion ktU/yr 1.2 2.4 4 Diffusion Enrichment ktswu/yr 1 2 4 Fabrication tU/day 1 2 4 Reproeessing and Reconversion tU/day 0.7 1 2 Fast Breeder Reactor - Core Fabrication t/day 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 Blanket Fabrication tU/day 0.5 1 2 Reprocessing t/day 0.7 1 -LOW NUCLEAR PROGRAMME Enriched Fuel Reactor - Conversion ktU/yr 1..2 2.4 4 Diffusion Enrichment ktswu/yr 1 2 > Fabrication tU/day 1 2 2 Reprocessing and Reconversion tU/day 0,7 1 2 Fast Breeder .Reactor - Core Fabrication t/day 0.1 0.2 0.4 Blanket.Fabrication tU/day 0,35 0.7 0.7 Reprocessing t/day 0.7 i

TABLE 2. TYPICAL FUEL FACILITY INSTALLATION PROGRAMMES FOR NATURAL FUEL REACTORS

Units 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1980 INDEPENDENCE LOW NUCLEAR PROGRAMME Fabrication tU/day 1 2 4 8 8 Reprocessing tU/day 2 4 8 Heavy Water kston/yr 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 HIGH NUCLEAR PROGRAMME Fabrication tU/day 1 2 A 8 8 8 Reprocessing tU/yr s 1 2 4 4 Heavy Water kston/yr 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 PROGRESSIVE INSTALLATION (WITHOUT PAST BREED]3 1 REACTORS) HIGH NUCLEAR PROGRAMME Fabrication tU/day 2 4 8 8 8 Reprocessing tU/day 2 4 •4 4 Heavy Water kston/yr 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 PROGRESSIVE INSTALLATIi DN (WITH FAS'! BREEDER ]REACTORS ) HIGH NUCLEAR PROGRAMME Natural Fuel Reactor • Fabrication tU/day 2 4 8 Reprocessing tU/day 2 A 8 Heavy Water kston/yr 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 Fast Breeder Reactor • Core Fabrication t/day 0.2 0.4. 0.8 1 Blanket Fabrication tU/day ' 0.5 i 2 Reprocessing t/day ' 0.7 1 2 LOW NUCLEAR PROGRAMME Natural Fuel Reactor • Fabrication tU/day 2 A 8 Reprocessing tU/day 2 4 8 Heavy Water kston/yfc 0»8 1.6 1.6 Fast Breeder Reactor - Core Fabrication t/day 0.1 0.2 0.4 Blanket Fabrication tU/day £35 1 1 Reprocessing t/day 0.7 1 2ao,ooo

180,000

160,000

^ 140,000 2

/ U 120,000 < a. < o / o Z 100,000 < a. U) z 111

O

t- 60,000 ^ & z ^

40,000 0 r J*^— > ^ 9 • ^ & 20,000 .$// \ W

1975 I960 1985 1990 1995 2000 ZOOS YEAR

FIG. 1

MOM (MM

HIGH NUCLEAR PROGRAMME LOW NUCLEAR PROGRAMME

sStm vSUOJ ^U' FAJT IREEDER REACTOR rrr? FAS;t»REE»ET MEEOER REACTOREACTORR N\V CAPACITY ASSOCIATED WITH OvNX CAPACITY ASSOCIATED WITH 2 s N N N NATURAL IIRMUUM FUEL REACTORS A x N RATBRMIRAW8M FBEt REACTORS Ty-T7 FAST BREEDER REACTOR £ TTT? FAST BREEDER REACTOR X r/// CAPACITY ASSOCIATED WITH 3 //// CWKCtTY ASSOCIATED WITH ' ' ' ' ENRICHED HUWIilW FUH REACTORS I ' "' ENRICHED URAHUIM FBEl REACTORS

Ok

HUM

ttjMO

tawo

1970 1910 1990 noo IIM 1990 YEAR YEAR

FIG. 3 8-16

REACTOR CONVERSION It m.m icf u30t nt,m M wh FABRICATION t I 000 MWE HWC //-//*—•tllCTRUM EttJ&Y

M.TEIMATIVE PATHS

SPENT FUEL .128 WB kq U02. SNIPPING jPu.muM «»oum ( FUEL

MILLING JBL.

tK.IMk; UOz{KO,.iz 567 kg FlttHE Pu REP&0CESSING #| Pu UTILIZATION (STORE FOR US€ MININ6 IN FAST REACTORS)

SPECIAL EXPLORATION DEPLETED^ NOTE URANIUM ISOTOPE MAIEBIAI HOWS All BOUNDED ANNUAL WIMATEO STORAGE .RECOVERY; 8E10AP ffQDietMtMK rOC » : OOP MwrHAW W*nO 3MCT0fi WRATiHO AT EQUiu58tuM MIMIH6 A MIUIN6

NATURAL URANIUM FUEL CYCLE

REACTOR

CONVERSION ft 3},apg fcq UQt K, IMC MWpiWfi FAORICATI0N 'r 1980 Bfmil CASE #-#->HICTi»{Al itUBtYr

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FIG. 7

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1980 1990 2000 1000 YEAR YEAR FIG. 8

Mm 9-1

PAPER 9

FUELS FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN AUSTRALIA

By: D. G. EVANS*

SUMMARY

The generation of electrical power accounts for nearly half the fuel used in Australia. The present and future fuel usage pattern in this industry is therefore of vital importance to the balanced development of Australia's fuel resources. In the past coal has been the principal fuel for electricity, generation. However, with the development of new deposits of oil, gas, and nuclear fuels over the last few years, diversification can be expected, with the choice of fuel being made mainly for economic reasons. Nuclear power generation is not expected to become competitive with generation from fossil fuels until the early nineteen eighties in New South Wales and Victoria, and much, later in the less populous States. Thus, except, for specific non-economic reasons, nuclear stations will not be built for at least another ten years. In the meantime, with power consumption doubling every few years in most parts of Australia, a great development in coal-burning stations for base load, and oil and gas stations for peak load, can be expected in the eastern States, with oil and gas being used for both purposes in South Australia and Western Australia.

1. INTRODUCTION

Before 194-0 the annual consumption of electricity, in Australia was a few hundred kilowatt-hours per head - not much more than in many under-developed countries today. Most of this electricity was generated in small power stations located in capital cities, using fuels brought in for the purpose. Fuel costs were high and efficiencies low, with the result that electricity costs to the consumer were high. Long-distance transmission networks were rudimentary or non-existent.

Senior Research Officer, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Melbourne, 9-2

In the period 19AO-50 the demand for electricity increased sharply as a result of enforced industrialization during the war and large-scale immi­ gration after it, and a major change of electricity generation and fuel usage policy emerged. Power stations were built on the coalfields, which in turn were mechanized to cope with the rapidly increasing demand for coal, and the electricity generated was transported to the centres of use by means of transmission networks.

This new policy, together with a steady increase in power-station efficiency, permitted a spectacular increase in generating capacity (Fig. 1), with little change in generating cost at a time of rapid cost increases for other basic commodities (Fig. 2). Today about three-quarters of Australia's electricity is produced by the combustion of coal in power stations on the coalfields, most of the remainder being produced in hydro stations.

This had been the policy followed for twenty years, until recently the generation of electricity in Australia entered a new stage characterized by a willingness to choose any possible fuel and burn it in any possible location, provided only that the choices fit into the overall pattern of developments in electricity generation.

The reasons for this change are complex; it is the purpose of this paper to identify and evaluate them, and in so doing to provide a basis for • predicting the pattern of fuel usage to be expected in Australia for the next 10-15 years.

2. FACTORS AFFECTING FUEL CHOICE

The choice of fuel for generating electricity will be. decided by a combination of the following factors:

(i) The overall cost of supplying electricity to the users' premises, including fuel costs, fuel transport costs, capital and operating costs of generating plant and transmission networks, and transmission losses.

(ii) The cost of pollution of various kinds when using some types of fuel. When the pollution can be prevented by using extra equipment the cost of the latter must be added to the overall electricity cost; when this is not feasible a decision must be made as to whether such pollution is tolerable.

(iii) The availability of the chosen fuel over the planned life of the power station, usually 20-30 years.

(iv) The availability of cooling water for the power station.

(v) The time taken between deciding on plant and producing electricity from it.

(vi) The possibility of disposing of waste by-product material from other processes by combustion and steam-raising.

(vii) Political factors.

2.1. Economic Factors

'' 2.1.1. !Fuel Costs.- Table T shows the costs of various fuels in Australia. Goal costs are those at the piower stations, as given by the annual reports of the electricity generating authorities, and include conveying costs from the coalfields.' Oil and gas costs are based o"n delivery to capital cities by tanker or pipeline. Nuclear fuel costs cannot be quoted in the same straight­ forward way, because the initial charge of fuel in the nuclear reactor is part of the initial capital cost of the station. Similarly capital costs in hydro­ electric stations are largely taken up by equipment for gathering "fuel" - in this case water.

Coal in South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and parts of Queensland is cheaper than in most other parts of the world. This is because much of Australia's coal occurs in thick seams, and open-cut mining methods can often be used.

2.1.2. Capital Cost of Plant.- The other main component of generating cost is the capital charge* to service borrowings on the capital cost of the plant. Table 2 shows the capital costs of various sizes and types of plant.

Since the capital cost per kW of installed capacity falls as the size of the equipment is increased, there is an inducement for new units to be as large as possible. The limit set by the potential disruption caused by shut­ downs for maintenance is that no individual unit should be larger in capacity than 10% of the grid it serves. Table 3 shows the capacities of the main grids in Australia in 1969, and the sizes of the largest units installed and of those being built or considered.

2.1.3- Operating Cost.- The operating cost of plant (manpower and main­ tenance) is closely tied to the capital cost. In calculations in this paper the'figure of 3*0% per annum is used.*- Although charges will vary somewhat with the type of equipment little error will be introduced by keeping the figure constant, as it is a relatively small proportion of the total cost of generating power.

2.1.4-. Overall Generating Costs and the Effect of Load Factor.- Overall generating costs can be calculated as the sum of the capital charge (incurred whether the plant is operating or not), the fuel cost (incurred only when the plant is running), and the operating cost (incurred mainly when the plant is running). Obviously such a calculation is very sensitive to the load factor, i.e. the ratio of actual output for a period to total output which would have been obtained had the plant run continuously at its maximum rating (m.c.r.).

Rig fluctuations in demand occur from month to month owing to weather changes, and also from hour to hour throughout each day. Fig. 3^ shows that the total installed capacity must be determined by the need to have some emergency reserve over the peaks occurring on the coldest winter days. The result is that about 50% of the plant will be running all the time (except for maintenance shutdowns)., while the remainder will run only part of the time, some of it for perhaps 5-10 hours a day more or less throughout the year and some only 1-2 hours a day on only the coldest days of the winter.

On this basis plant can be divided into three categories: base-load* plant running at overall annual load factors of 70-80%, peak-load plant operating at annual load factors of 20-40%, and reserve plant operating at annual load factors of only 0-5%.

* This includes depreciation allowances, usually calculated-over a 20- or 25-year period, and interest charges on the undepreciated residue. , For' the purpose of calculation in this paper a total flat rate of 9% per annum"for a 25-year period will be used.*- 9-4

Table U shows generating costs calculated for various fuels for each of the grids mentioned earlier, for load factors of 80$, 2%, and 2%, repre­ senting the three categories of equipment mentioned above, and for units as large as the various systems could cope with at the present time.

2.1.5. Energy Transport Costs.- It is cheaper to transmit large quantities of electricity than the corresponding quantities of coal. However, for other forms of energy the situation may be reversed. Table 5> which compares the costs for transporting energy in various forms for a 2,000-MW system,4 shows that it should be cheaper to transport gas to power stations located in the main centre of use, rather than to locate power stations on the gas fields.

For small capacities it is always more economical to move the fuel than the electricity, as was the case throughout Australia in the pre-war period. Small isolated communities dotted throughout Australia usually generate their own power with diesel generators of only a few MW capacity, even though the.cost of diesel fuel brought in by road tanker may be $4-0 or $50 per ton. It is only the two States smallest in area, Victoria and Tasmania, which possess a complete electricity supply network covering virtually the whole State.

2.2. Pollution

As generating capacities increase pollution becomes a greater problem. The most obvious forms of pollution, air pollution from stack emissions and thermal pollution of streams and rivers, have both long since reached the stage where the cost of dealing with them has-become a routine part of the budget for a new station development. This will extend to other forms of pollution as sizes become even bigger, and as public awareness of the dangers and un- desirability of pollution becomes more acute.

2.2.1. Stack Emissions.- Electrostatic precipitators are installed on all large coal-fired boiler plants, to remove fly-ash. However, despite intensive world-wd.de research an economic solution to the problem of pollution by oxides of sulphur is not yet in sight; a partial solution is provided by the use of tall stacks to dilute the oxides before they reach the ground. Pollution by sulphur oxides is not a serious problem in Australia, as.most home-produced coals have low sulphur contents. However, as Table U shows, economics favour the use of gas or oil in metropolitan plants for peak-load generation. Gas should be the preferred fuel, because- of the possibility of sulphur oxide pollution from residual fuel oils.

In the U.S.A., one of the incentives to install nuclear power stations is the resulting absence of stack emissions.

2.2.2. Thermal Pollution.- Power stations convert at least two-thirds of the energy stored in the fuel into low-grade heatf which is discharged into the local water and atmosphere. In earlier days, use of river water as condenser cooling water caused rivers to be heated to the point where fish, were killed and plant growth severely distiArbed; but nowadays if this is likely to occur the heat is transferred to the atmosphere by cooling towers or ponds. The enormous quantities of water vapour thus discharged may reinforce any natural tendency towards fog conditions inareas subject to temperature inversions.

2.2.3. Radioactive Pollution.- Because of the toxicity of radioactive pollution it has always been accepted that designs for nuclear power stations should include stringent safety'precautions to prevent leakage of radioactive 9-5 material. Reactors located in populous areas have therefore included a second barrier to leakage in case of primary failure. The alternative is to locate plant in remote situations so that any accident would not endanger life. In either case the cost of electricity to the consumer is increased. -

2.3. Fuel Availability

2.3.1- Coal and Gas Reserves.- The concept, of generating electricity on the coalfield means that a power station is married to a particular field, whose coal reserves must be large enough to last the life of the station. A good example of this is the Leigh Creek coalfield in South Australia, coal from which is burnt at the Thomas Playford station, in Port Augusta. Despite the low cost of this coal (Table 1 ) no further new generating capacity can be based on it, as existing reserves5 will do no more than see out the life of the existing plant.

Despite big natural-gas finds in several parts of Australia no major station has yet been designed to operate solely on gas, and none is likely to be built until reserves adequate for the life of a station have been established by further exploration. 2.3.2. Imported Fuel Oil.- Oil-burning stations in Australia must depend on imported oil, as local reserves sufficient for electricity generation have not yet been established. Since the cost of electricity from, oil-burning plant is very sensitive to fuel cost (Table J+), plant is usually designed around prices negotiated for long-term bulk supply. In such a situation the supplier is taking the risk on price fluctuations in the world market, and consequently prices may be rather high when viewed against a short-term situation.

2.3.3. Availability of Water in Hydro Stations.- Hydro stations are designed for a certain annual output, based on water catchment records. In drought years these outputs will not be reached, and unless sufficient flexi­ bility is built into the grid in terms of large reserve, capacity or alternative methods of generation, demand will exceed supply, as happened in Tasmania in the summer of 1967.

2.4. Availability of Cooling Water

As noted earlier, conventional thermal plant operating with steam turbines uses enormous quantities of cooling water, and it is therefore essential when selecting a power-station site to choose one near a river or the sea. This means that if water is not available on the coalfield the plant must be built • elsewhere, as happened with the Thomas Playford station at Port Augusta, using Leigh Creek coal.

Nuclear stations, like coal-fired stations, use steam as the thermodynamic fluid and so require a supply of cooling water. They do, however, have the advantage that fuel transport costs are negligible, so that nuclear power plant can be sited wherever cooling water is the cheapest, usually on the sea co£st.

Diesel and gas-turbine plants do not require cooling water, as they use the products of combustion as the thermodynamic fluid and have no condensers. Such plants are expensive to operate, because of high fuel costs and low efficiencies, but they do provide a possible solution to the power-generation problem in localities short of cooling water.

2.5* Delivery Times !. "..'..

The time which elapses between the decision to build a power station and 9-6

the commissioning date is 7-8 years for a large coal or nuclear thermal station. It is difficult to predict system growth rates, and therefore the dates when additional generating plant will be required, so far ahead. For example, a growth rate of 6% per annum requires the system capacity to be doubled in 13 years, but if the growth rate rises to 8% per annum the doubling is required in only 9 years. To meet such contingencies, bridging capacity may be needed - for example, gas turbines, which can be installed within about two years from ordering. Although these plants use expensive fuel their capital cost is low (Table 2), and when the bridging purpose has been achieved they can be switched to reserve capacity.

2.6. Disposal of Waste Materials

Many waste materials may be disposed of by combustion. However, the combustion equipment costs money and the heat energy produced may be an embarrassment. Electricity generation can be considered as a useful means of disposing of some of the heat and recouping the cost of the equipment. Usually the waste material is difficult to burn or is located in unsuitable locations or is in insufficient quantities for economic generation, and the cost penalty incurred has to be offset against the cost of disposal by other means.

Examples are: disposal of garbage, bagasse (wkste from sugar cane milling), sawdust, wood waste, and rice hulls. The quantity of electricity generated using these materials is small, and much of it is used internally by private firms. Table 6 gives estimates of the quantities entering grids all over Australia.''

2.7. Political Factors

2.7.1. "Self-sufficiency!?- Individual States in Australia have tradition­ ally aimed at becoming self-sufficient in fuel resources, particularly since 1950, as a reaction against the shortages of the wartime and post-war years. The result has been that the various networks have become unbalanced, and this is one of the main reasons for the present tendency towards interconnection of systems.

2.7.2. The Nuclear Question.- The decision to build Australia's first nuclear power station in the mid'seventies is a political one, in the sense that nuclear power is certainly not economic at this stage (Table 4). However, it would appear to be a positive rather than a negative political decision, since it will facilitate decisions on further nuclear developments when the economics do become favourable. 2.7.3. Pollution Control.- The control of pollution caused by electricity generation using various fuels has already been discussed in Section 2.2. It is merely noted here that the decisions on the extent to which the various pollutants should be controlled are political in nature, and the prevailing community attitudes on this subject are now strong enough to be decisive in the selection or rejection of a particular fuel or the choice of a power-station location.

3. THE DEVELOPING PATTERN OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION

3.1. Development over the Past Twenty Years

The pattern of development from the "generation at the point of use" phase through; the "generation on the coalfield" phase to the present time Is de­ monstrated in Tables 7, 8, and 9, which show respectively the capacities of the 9-7 different types of power station in the various States for the years 1949, 1959, and 1969, the amounts of electricity generated in the same- years, and the quantities of fuel used.1a

The effects of the various factors previously discussed (Section 2) in developing this pattern are now examined.

3.2. New South Wales1 b

In 1949 the major power stations were located in metropolitan Sydney, in Newcastle, and in Port Kembla, burning black coal transported from the coalfields. Little hydro capacity existed.

By 1969 extensive hydro capacity had been introduced by the Snowy Mountains Authority, New South Wales being entitled to about 71$ of the capacity of the Snowy scheme. A policy of generation at coalfields on the coast has been pursued vigorously, culminating in the large new stations at Vales Point and Munmorah. The operation of collieries specifically geared to power-station requirements, together with reduced coal transport costs, have resulted in a marked drop in the prices of coal (Fig. 4) and electricity (Fig. 2).

The original metropolitan stations are now operated only as reserve plant. Peak-load capacity is supplied by the hydro stations and the early coalfield stations, with only the later coalfield stations operating on base load.

New South Wales is now in a favoured position: hydro power is available to provide 40$ of the total required capacity; black coal is cheap, and much of it is available close to sea water for cooling, and relatively close to the industrial and population centres. Four 500-MW units are currently under construction on the coalfield at Liddell, and final development of the Snowy scheme (Tumut 3) will give a further 1080 MW of peak-load capacity.

3.3« Victoria

Generation on the coalfields was forced on Victoria early by the high cost of transporting energy in the form of bed-moist brown coal (Table 5)« By 1949 much of Victoria's electricity was being produced at Yallourn, with metropolitan thermal stations bridging the wartime installation gap. Little hydro capacity was available.

The next 20 years saw major developments in hydro installations and on the brown coalfields at Yallourn and Morwell. The high-voltage grid was extended to cover the whole State, and was linked to the New South Wales grid through the Snowy scheme. By 1969 nearly 90$ of Victoria's electricity was generated in base-load stations burning bed-moist brown coal, with most of the remainder generated in peak-load hydro stations. Most of the old metropolitan thermal si-ations are now on reserve service.

Two new 350-MW units are currently under construction at Yallourri, and another 4-30 MW of hydro capacity will be available on completion of the Snowy scheme (Tumut 3) about 1974- Further peak-load capacity is to. be provided in the form of conventional thermal plant of 350 or 500 MW capacity, fired by gas or oil, both of which are cheaper for peak-load operation than is brown coal . (Table 4)e Since it is cheaper to transport gas than electricity (Table 5) such a plant will be sited in or near Melbourne, irrespective of the fuel chosen.

Such large plant could not depend on Bass Strait oil (unless additional 9-8 reserves with more heavy fractions were discovered), so that if oil is used it will most likely to high-sulphur residual oil from the Middle East. This would certainly present a pollution problem, and it is to be hoped that gas will be used instead, as far as reserves permit.

3.4. Queensland1d

Queensland has a more difficult electricity supply problem than any other State, but at the same time has- the greatest potential for making cheap elec­ tricity. The problem is the supplying of electricity to centres of population and industry extending 1500 miles up the eastern coastlinej the potential is the central Queensland coals, of good quality and capable of cheap mining by open-cut methods to give the cheapest coal in Australia, on a thermal basis (Table 1).

At present there are three separate grids - in southern, central, and northern Queensland - but demand in central and northern Queensland is too small to justify their interconnection. However, plans have recently been announced for interconnection of the central and southern grids by a 275-kV line to supply the southern grid with cheap electricity made from central Queensland coal. This involves construction of an 1100-MW power station in central Queensland, equal in capacity to the whole of the existing central and southern grids combined.

To support such a project vigorous industrial developments are needed in central Queensland, and to this end the Queensland Government is currently negotiating with large metallurgical companies and also with the Commonwealth Government, which is expected to provide special loan funds for building this station.

Historically, Queensland's system developed in a similar way to those of New South Wales and Victoria. In 194-9 most of her electricity was generated in the large towns and cities, using black coal brought in for the purpose. Little hydro capacity existed. By 1969 most base-load electricity was generated on the coalfields: at Swanbank in the south, Callide in the centre, and Collinsville in the north. Several hydro stations in the north were also operating on base load.

Till recently, peak-load and reserve capacity were provided by the old metropolitan thermal stations. However, unlike New South Wales and Victoria, southern and central Queensland have not had available appreciable quantities of peak-load hydro power, and gas turbines have been used to meet this need, with 150 MW already installed or on order. 1e 3.5. South Australia South Australia has the most difficult fuel supply problem of all the States. She possesses no hydro power and only one coal deposit, which is of low grade, located well away from centres of use and from cooling-water supplies, and too small to support more than 330 MW of base-load capacity. As a result the consumption of fuel oil in South Australia in 1969 was 60$ of Australia's total, although the South Australian grid has only 1% of the total Australian capacity. Fortunately, natural gas has recently been discovered in commercial quantities in central Australia, about 500 miles from the main centres of use.

In 1949 virtually all of South Australia's electricity was generated in power stations in metropolitan Adelaide, burning mostly imported black coal. . In 1955 electricity was first produced from South Australia's only "coalfields" 9-9 station (in fact located at Port Augusta, well away from the Leigh Creek coal­ field because of lack of cooling water). It quickly became the State's base- load station, while the older metropolitan stations were relegated to peak- load and reserve capacity.

When the Leigh Creek coalfield reached the limit of its development plans were put in hand for a major metropolitan station (Torrens Island) based on imported fuel oil, and in 1969 this station produced 25$ of the State's electricity. However, natural gas was discovered in central Australia after a start had been made on construction of the Torrens Island station, and some of the boilers are now being fired with this alternative (and somewhat cheaper and cleaner) fuel. It has been decided that all present and future generating plant at Torrens Island shall be suitable for using either oil or natural gas.

Like central and southern Queensland, South Australia possesses no hydro capacity suitable for meeting peak loads and is turning to the gas turbine to provide this. Units totalling 52 MW are already on order. 1f 3.6. Western Australia

Western Australia, with the largest land area of any of the Australian States, has the smallest population with the exception of Tasmania, and until recently it had little industrial development requiring electricity. This situation is changing rapidly, however, and electricity generation has experienced growth rates of the order of 15$ per annum over the last few years.

As in other States, the first power stations were erected at centres of use, in this case Perth and Fremantle. These were fired by coal brought in to the power stations, mainly from the Collie coalfield located about 120 miles south of Perths Following the rapid growth in population and industry in the south-western corner of the State over the last few years, power stations have been erected on the coalfield itself, at Collie and a few miles away at Muja. By 1969 bhe 24.0-MW Muja station was operating as the State's base-load station, using 90$ of the coal produced, and the price of coal at the power station had fallen sharply (Fig. U), although it was still higher than in most other parts of Australia.

There is little potential for hydro power in the south-western area covered by the grid, and peak-load and reserve capacity are provided mainly by the older metropolitan stations, now converted to oil firing.

The current major development in the State is an oil-fired station of four 120-MW units, located at Kwinana . miles south of Perth, in the centre of the developing industrial area. This station is presumably designed for base-load as well as peak-load operation. The reason for the switch to oil from coal is that the coal is more and the oil less expensive than elsewhere in Australia (a B.P. refinery also is located at Kwinana).

Because of the enormous distances involved it is unlikely that substantial extension of the grid will occur for A long time. Meanwhile power requirements in the small coastal and mining towns are mostiy supplied'by diesel generators. Four 30-MW units are on order for the new steam station at Dampier, and one 30-MW unit is about to be commissioned. Two 30-MW units are being installed by Cliffs Western Mining in their new steam station at Cape Lambert,- and further units are in prospect. 9-10

3.7. Tasmania e

Tasmania has no developed coal resources but an abundance of areas suitable for hydro installations. These have been developed vigorously, and much industry has been attracted to the State because of the cheapness of the electricity produced (Fig. 2)„ As a result Tasmania's production of electricity per head of population is amongst the highest in the world.

Because, as pointed out earlier, complete dependence on hydro electricity has made Tasmania vulnerable to drought, in the last few years 50 MW of reserve capacity in the form of gas turbines has been installed while an oil-fired station of 120 MW is being commissioned at Bell Bay. These will be used to provide bridging capacity until power is available from a new hydro development in the Gordon River area, in the south-western part of the State, and will then be switched to peak-load operation. A.. FUTURE FUEL USE

4.1. ,Future Demand for Electricity

The increases in the annual maximum demand in the various States over the past 15 years are shown in Fig, 5. The demands are plotted on a logarithmic' scale to permit the slopes to be used to calculate the annual growth rates. These range from 6% per annum for Tasmania to 15/6 for Western Australia, The rates have been fairly steady except for a sharp increase for Western Australia about 1960, and it may be expected that they will remain steady for the next few ye'ars, except for a slight drop in Western Australia and an increase in Queensland if plans for industrialization of central Queensland come to fruition.

The broken lines in Fig. 5 give estimates of the likely demand over the . next decade, based on these assumptions. Expected growths in system capacities by 1980 are given in Table 10, assuming that systems should be 25% larger than the expected maximum demand and that 50% of each system would be peak-load or reserve capacity,

4-.2, Future Power Station Construction

4.2,1. New South Wales.- Enormous expansion of both peak-load and base- load capacities will be required by 1980 - over 4000 MW in each category. The New South Wales grid is now big enough to take individual units of 660 MW, i.e. larger than the size at which nuclear power stations in Europe and North America are starting to become attractive. However, as shown in Fig. 6, nuclear plant will not compete with coal-fired plant before about 1985, because of the cheapness of the coal; and therefore operation of the 500-MW nuclear plant at Jervis Bay in the late Seventies will have to be subsidized out of Commonwealth funds.

Completion of the Liddell •coal-fired station by the installation of four 500-MW units, and planned extensions to Wallerawang (one 500-MW-unit), will add 2500 MW of base-load capacity by 1975.T^ The Jervis Bay nuclear station will add a further 500 MW before 1980, leaving a shortfall of only 1100 MW. Tenders have been called for. two additional units, each of 660 MW, to be installed at Vales Point power station; and a new station on Lake Macquarie is planned,^ These schemes: could provide a total of 2,600 MW additional generating capacity, which is considerably more than required - thus releasing- say, 1500 MW to peak-load service.

Completion of the Snowy hydro scheme by 1975 will add 1080 MW of peak-load plant at Tumut 3J and a pumped-storage scheme on the Shoalhaven River another 9-11

240 MW by 1976.ID However, as shown in Table 10, another 3,000 MW will be re­ quired by 1980. As noted above, 1,250 MW of this could be made up from partly amortized base-load plant, but it is no longer possible to rely on this source for more than a fraction of the peak-load needs, and increasing amounts of plant specifically designed for this service willTbe^required. For low load- factor, reserve, further pumped-storage hydro plant or gas-turbine plant operating on natural gas from Victoria may be used (Table 4). In the 25$ load-factor region conventional black coal plant will continue to be favoured (Fig. 6).

4*2.2. Victoria.- Victoria will require over 2000 MW of both peak-load and base-load plant by 1980. Although Victorian brown coal is extremely cheap (Table 1) its high moisture content necessitates special plant for combustion, and generating costs with this fuel are higher than with N.S.W. black coal. Research is in progress on a process for dewatering brown coal before combustion which would result in a generating cost structure close to that of black coal." However, should this process not prove successful the break-even point for nuclear fuel could come by 1980, earlier than for New South Wales (Fig. 6).

Completion of the Hazelwood and Yallourn "W" brown coal stations by 1974 will provide 1100 MW of base-load capacity,10 but, as seen from Table 10, another 900 MW will be needed by 1980; this will probably be provided by brown coal plant at Morwell.

Planning for a 1000-MW oil or gas station in Melbourne for peak-load service is under way, and completion of Tumut 3 hydro station will add another 430 MW of peak-load capacity.*0 However, a further 1000 MW will be required by 1980; as in New South Wales, it is no longer possible to rely on old base- load plant, and no doubt pumped-storage hydro plant or further oil'or gas-fired steam-turbine plant will be installed (Fig. 6). For the 2% load-factor reserve plant category, gas-fired gas turbines will almost certainly be used.

4.2.3. Queensland.- Over 1000-MW of both peak-load and base-load plant will be needed by 1980. An 1100-MW coal-fired base-load plant is already planned for Gladstone in central Queensland, and 480 MW of plant is on order to extend the Swanbank station at Ipswich, in southern Queensland.1d Together these will release 350 MW of old base-load plant for peak-load operation, and as coal is so cheap further peak-load capacity should be based on it (Fig. 6). Queensland already has some gas turbines installed and more on order; these should satisfy the reserve plant requirements for some time.

4.2.4. South Australia.- Here a similar position exists to that in Queensland, with more base-load plant on order than will be required by 1980. However, this is oil-fired and gas-fired steam plant, rather than coal-fired, and should serve for both peak-load and base-load requirements. A further 1000 MW of similar plant will be needed before 1980.

As shown in Fig< 6, nuclear fuel is cheaper than fuel oil for base-load generation, for units of 400 MW or larger,, However, the South Australian.grid will not be able to support individual units larger than 200 MW for many years to come, and the suggestion has been- made that it might benefit both Victoria -: and South Australia if their two grids were interconnected via a 500-MW nuclear1 : plant located in the south-eastern portion of the State. A submission along these lines has been made to the Commonwealth Government.16

4.2.5. Western Australia.- Growth rates over the past 10 years have been extremely high, averaging'15$ per annum, and new installations have been barely • able to cope with demand. 480 MW of new plant is on order; it will be oil-fired, 9-12

and could serve equally for peak and base load- However, even allowing for a drop in growth rate to 12%, a further 14-00 MW will be required by 1980. Quite possibly the cost structure by then will again favour further development based on Collie coal. Tenders have already been called for two 200-MW oil- and gas- fired units for extending the Kwinana power station, 4.2*6. Tasmania.- The cheapest hydro power in Tasmania has already been tapped, and while costs are decreasing in other States they are increasing in Tasmania (Fig. 2). The incentive for large industries to be established in Tasmania is therefore not as great as it once was, and growth rates are now the smallest in Australia. However, even at a growth rate of only 6% per annum an additional 900 MW will be required by 1980.

An oil-fired steam plant of 120 MW capacity is being installed at Bell Bay, and a further 530 MW of hydro plant under construction in the Mersey-Forth- and Gordon River schemes should be complete by 1975» There is a potential capacity for at least another 800 MW in the south-western corner of the State, and further development can be expected.

It has been proposed that the Tasmanian and Victorian grids be inter­ connected by an undersea cable, to give greater flexibility to both systems. Although apparently not economic at the moment, this proposal will no doubt be reviewed again in a few years' time.

4.3. Fuel Consumption by 1980 Table 11 summarizes the main categories of plant expected in the . different States in 1980, and the quantities of fuel required, assuming 50% of the installed capacity is base-load plant operating at 80% load factor, 40% is peak-load plant operating at 25% load factor, and 10% is reserve plant operating at 2% load factor«

It is not certain how much of the peak-load plant in Victoria and South Australia will be gas-fired and how much oil-fired; on the assumption of equal capacities of each, Table 11 gives a gas consumption in South Australia approx-. imately equal to the announced contract figure.^e

It is seen that the annual black coal consumption between now and 1980 will almost treble, brown coal consumption will double, and fuel oil consumption quadruple; natural gas will increase from virtually nothing to nearly 50,000 million cubic feet per year.

4.4. The Nuclear Phase

As far as can be seen at the moment, the generation of electricity in Australia will enter yet another phase in the nineteen eighties - the nuclear phase. In this phase the grids of all the eastern states, including South Australia and Tasmania, will be interconnected, and no new base-load plant based on fossil fuels will be built, except possibly in Western Australia. Existing fossil-fuel plant, including new plant .built up to 1985, will gradually be relegated to peak-load operation. Probably the only new fossil-fuel plant built will be that designed specifically for reserve capacity.

These conclusions are based on assumptions which many fossil-fuel-plant engineers would consider over-generous to nuclear fuel. However, these are the assumptions which are currently being made, and only time will tell whether...... •.,,.. :vt^y-:are justified. • •'••%•'/•' .-:;;-- 9-13 5. CONCLUSIONS

Before 1920 most power stations in Australia were built adjacent to the load centres. They nearly all burnt black coal from New South Wales, transported from the docks in small lots. The next 20-30 years saw most new stations being built near the docks, using sea water for cooling water and black coal from New South Wales as.fuel.

In 1930 Victoria chose to develop her own brown coal for power generation, but because of its low calorific value it was cheaper to build the power stations on the coalfields and transport the electricity to the centres of use by high-voltage lines. The coalfields were opened up by large-scale, mechanized mining operations, and by 1950 electricity was cheaper in Victoria than in any other State in Australia with the exception of Tasmania.

With the large expansion of electricity demand after World "War II a major shift of policy to generation on the coalfields occurred also in Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia, and Western Australia. This resulted in a steady drop in electricity prices over a period of more than fifteen years, while other basic commodities consistently rose in price. Today over three-quarters of Australia's electricity is generated from combustion of coal on the coalfields.

During the same period hydro-electric capacity was developed vigorously in the mountainous areas of the eastern States, much of it on a peak-load design basis. Today hydro electricity accounts for nearly 20% of the electricity generated, more than half of it in Tasmania.

In the late 1960Ts development of peak-load generating capacity attained importance as grid capacities increased in size. With this type of load it is important to reduce capital charges to a minimum, as the plant load factor is so low (typically about 25%). New South Wales and Victoria have switched old amortized base-load plant to this service, and are using hydro capacity from the Snowy scheme. Victoria has also recently announced plans for conventional oil or gas plant, and New South Wales fo* pumped-storage hydro plant. Queensland and South Australia, being more limited in resources, have ordered gas-turbine peak-load plants. Further development of natural-gas reserves in Australia can be expected, and gas should have an assured place in future peak-load electricity generation.

The 500-MW nuclear power station planned for Jervis Bay notwithstanding, nuclear power is not expected to be economic anywhere in Australia before 1980, by which time the consumption of fossil fuels for electricity generation will have approximately trebled - reaching 27 million tons of black coal, 42 million tons of brown and other coal, 3 million tons of oil, and 50,000 million cubic feet of gas per year.

After 19S0 many of the new base-load stations installed are likely to be nuclear fuelled, and existing fossil fuel stations will gradually be switched over to peak-load operation. By 1990 all the main grids in Australia except the Western Australian one could possibly be interconnected - by high- voltage d.c. transmission,'to minimize losses. Most base-load capacity could be nuclear, with peak-load electricity provided only from the cheapest black coal in New South Wales and Queensland, from low-capital-cost gas-fired plant in Victoria and South Australia, and from hydro plant in the eastern States. Although Victorian brown coal is one of the cheapest coals in Australia, unless an economic process for reducing its high moisture content before combustion can be developed the high cost of the boiler system currently required to burn it will preclude its use for peak load generation in this future period. 9-U

6. REFERENCES

(1) Annual Reports

(a) "The Electricity Supply Industry in Australia", 1948-49 through to 1968-69 (Electricity Supply Association of Australia, Melbourne). (b) Annual Report 1969 (Electricity Commission of New South Wales, Sydney). (c) Annual Report, 1969 (State Electricity Commission of Victoria, Melbourne). (d) Annual Report, 1969 (State Electricity Commission of Queens­ land, Brisbane), (e) Annual Report, 1969 (Electricity Trust of South Australia, Adelaide). (f) Annual Report, 1969 (State Electricity Commission of Western Australia, Perth). (g) Report for Year 1968-69 (Hydroelectric Commission of Tasmania, Hobart).

(2) BUCHANAN, R.H., and SINCLAIR, C.G. "Costs and Economics of the Australian Process Industries". (West,Sydney, 1964).

(3) CHAPMAN, R.G. "Generation Planning". Paper to Residential School in power system electrical engineering, Vol. 1, 1301-1321 (University of Melbourne, 1967).

(4) McFADYEN, W.T. Fuel types and fuel resources available to Australia in the future. J. Inst. Fuel. 1969, -£2, 267-275.

(5) HARTNELL, B.W. Black coal: its essential role in Australia's industrial growth. "Fuel and Power in Australia"., pp. 41-62 Ed. H. G. Raggatt (Cheshire, Melbourne, 1969).

(6) EVANS, D.G. and SIEMON, S.R. Dewatering of brown coal, before combustion. Conference on Combustion and Combustion Equipment, The Institute of Fuel, Australian Membership, Canberra, November 1968, pp. 7-1 to 7-14 (The Institute of Fuel, Australian Membership, Sydney, 1968).

(7) KNIGHT, A.W. The development of hydro-electric power in Tasmania. "Fuel and Power in Australia" pp. 143-158. Ed. H. G. Raggatt (Cheshire, Melbourne, 1969).

(8) DEPARTMENT OF NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT. "Energy in Australia", p. 31 (Commonwealth Government Printer, Canberra, 1967). TABLE 1. COSTS OF FUEL AT POWER STATIONS IN 1970

——————————.

Fuel Location $/ton c/kwh in fuel c/kwh generated fiuclear - 0.13

black coal N.S.W. 4.0 0.055 0.15 South Qld 5.5 0.070 0.19 Central Qld 2.6 0.040 .0.11 North Qld 8.0 0.100 0.27 W.A. 6.0 0.097 0.29

brown and Victoria 0.8 0.030 • 0.12 other coal S.A. 2.7 0.069 0.21

fuel oil ex refinery 11.0 0.088 0.25 imported 12.5 0.100 0.29

distillate oil 25.0 gas turbine 0.200 0.74- I natural gas: steam plant Adelaide 0.082 0.23 . steam plant Melbourne 0.102 0.29 gas turbine Adelaide 0.082 0.30 gas turbine Melbourne 0.102 0.38 9-16 TABLE 2. CAPITAL COST OF PLANT IN 1970, MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

A. th erm odyn ami c fluid fuel size, MW 30 120 500

steam nuclear - 36 85

steam brown coal 9 24 64 steam black coal r 6 16 44 steam oil 5 13 35

steam natural gas 5 13 35

gas distillate oil 3 8

gas natural gas 3 8 \

costs are assumed to increase by the 0.7"^ power of the increase in size.

TABLE 3. GENERATING CAPACITIES OF-GRIDS IN 1969

Grid Installed capacity Largest single Largest single MW unit operating(a) unit on order(a) MW MW

New- South Wales (b) 5570 350 500

Victoria (b) 3350 200 350

Queensland, South 1050 66 120 Central 200 30 30 North 230 30 30

South Australia 970 120 200

Western Australia 560 60 120

Tasmania 1010 120

/

i •

(a) Thermal units only; hydro units are not included (b) Capacities for New South Wales and Victoria include Snowy and Hume entitlements y-17 TABLE 4. COST OF GENERATING ELECTRICITY IN 1970

—-' ' - - -..-..• •- fuel type fuel cost load .factor , % of M.C.R. j 80 25 2 brovm coal $0.80/ton 0.61 1.46 15.7

black coal $5/ton 0.50 1.08 10.6 $2.50/ton 0.41 0.98 10.6

fuel oil $12.50/ton 0.57 1.02 8.7 $10/ton 0.51 0.C7 8.7

natural gas 30 c/thou c ft 0.56 1.02 8.7

gas turbine, oil $25/ton 0.97 1.21 6.0

gas turbine, natural gas 30 c/thou c ft 0.54 0.83 5.5 ______• —art 120 HW Dlant fuel type fuel cost load :Factor , % of M.C.R. 80 25 2 nuclear 0.13 c/kwh 0.62 1.46 15.6

brown coal $0.80/ton 0.44 0.99 10.2

black coal £5/ton 0.39 0.77 7.0 $2.50/ton 0.30 0.67 6.9

fuel oil $12.50/ton 0.47 0.77 5.8 $10/ton 0.41 0.71 5.8

natural gas 30 c/thou c ft 0.46 0.77 5.8

gas turbine, oil $25/ton 0.91 1.06 4.3

gas turbine, natural gas 30 c/thou c ft 0.48 0.68 3.7 500 HW plant fuel type fuel cost load factor, % of M.C.R. • 80 25 . .-.- 2 - n • ' • ' ' nuclear 0.13 c/kwh 0.41 0.88 8.9

brovm coal $0.80/ton > 0.33 0.69 7.8

black coal $5/ton 0.33 0.57 . 4.7 O2.50/ton 0.23 0.48 4.6

fuel oil $12.50/ton 0.42 0.61 3.9 * $10/ton o; 36 0.55,. 3.8

natural gas 30 c/thou c ft 0.41 0.61 3.9 r-, -, r-ir-'J • TABLE 5. RELATIVE COST OF TRANSPORT OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY IN VARIOUS FORMS

form method of transport percentage of cost of transport as electricity

natural gas 32 inch pipeline 90

electricity 500 kV line 100

black coal rail 180

brown coal rail 750

TABLE 6. ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED TO GRIDS FROM COMBUSTION OF WASTE MATERIAL IN 1969

'•••• ' •"••— .•_ - • " • - « material j grid quantity of electricity, 106 kWh per year

garbage figures not available t bagasse N.Qld 15

wood waste o • A» 97

rice hulls none 9-19

TABLE 7. GENERATING CAPACITIES OF VAKIOUS TYPES, MW

Plant type year NSW Vic QJd SA WA Tas Aust. total(a)

Hydro 1949 33 51 4 0 0 173 261 1959 223 309 76 0 2 485 1098 (b)1969 1548 948 132 0 2 956 3622

Steam 1949 775 496 173 147 75 0 1666 1959 .1690 1010 564 366 268 0 3898 1959 3989 2398 1323 957 515 0 9229

Internal combustion 1949 25 17 21 11 12 0 86 1959 47 44 38 - 12 23 0 179 1969 36 6 36 12 47 4 168

Gas turbine 1949 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1959 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1969 0 0 55 0 0 50 105

Total 1949 833 564 198 158 87 173 2013 1959 1960 1363 678 378 293 485 5175 1969 5573 3352 1546 969 564 1010 13124

(a) Includes Northern Territory, Papua and New Guinea (b) NSW includes 71% of Snowy, Victoria 29% 9-20

TABLE 8. ELECTRICITY GENERATED, 10v kWh PER YEAR

• , .. , NSW Vic ' Qld SA WA Tas Aust.total(a)

Hydro 1949 0.18 0.18 ' 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.92 1.31 1959 0.53 0.62 0.17 0.00 0.00 2.38 3.72 Cb)1969 1.81 1.37 0.51 0.00 0.01 4.57 8.37 1 t 1

Steam turbine 1949 2.92 2.20 0.58 0.46 0.30 0.00 6.45 1959 6.75 4.86 1.78 1.47 0.70 0.00 15.55

• 1969 15.21 11.37 4.39 3.84 1.97 0.01 36.90

Internal combustion 1949" 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.15 1959 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.28 •1969 0.07 0.01 0.07. 0.02 • 0.08 0.00 0.31

Gas turbine 1949 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1959 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1969 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03

Total 1949 3.15 2.41 0.63 0.48 0.32 0.92 7.91 1959 7.33 5.56 2.0970 1.48 0.75 2.38 19.56 1969 17.10 12.75 r- 3.86 2.06 4.61 45.61

(a) Includes Northern Territory, Papua,and New Guinea (b) NSW.includes 71% of Snowy, Victoria 29% •» 9-21

TABLE 9. FUEL CONSUMED, MILLION TONS PER YEAR

- " • ' •

Year NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas Aust.total(a)

Black coal 1949 2.11 0.24 0.49 0.24 0.27 0.00 3.36 1959 3.64 0.20 1.15 0.28 0.52 0.00 5.79 1969 6.65 0.01 2.23 0.02 0.91 0.00 9.81

Brown coal (b) 1949 0.00 4.36 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 4.50 1959 0.00 8.72 0.00 0.65 0.00 0.00 9.37 1969 0.00 18.05 0.00 2.14 0.00 0.00 20.18

Briquettes 1949 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 1959 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 1969 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30

Oil 1949 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.12 1959 0.02 0.30 0.01 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.43 1969 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.35 0.14 0,01 0.65

Wood,etc. 1949 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.16 1959 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.16 1969 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.17

Gas(c) 1949 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1959 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1969 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12

(a) Includes Northern Territory, Papua and New Guinea (b) Includes Leigh Creek coal » (c) Thousand million cubic feet per year 9-22

f

TABLE 10. ESTIMATION OF NEW GENERATING CAPACITY REQUIRED BY 1980

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas

Total grid capacity

Maximum demand in 1969, MW 4,000 2,400 1,100 800 500 700

Present growth rate, % p.a. 9 7 8 9 15 6

Assumed future growth rate, % p.a. 9 7 10 9 12 6

Estimated maximum demand in 1980, MW 11,000 6,"300 3,200 2,400 2,000 1,500

Demand in 1980 plus 25%, MW 14,000 8,000 4,000 3,000 2,500 1,900

Base load capacity

Base load in 1980, 50% of total, MW 7,000 4,000 2,000 .1,500 1,250 950

Base load in 1969, MW 2,900 2,000 ^700 700 300 500

New base load required, MW 4,100 2,000 1,300 800 950 450 New base load planned or on order, MW 3,350 1,100 1,650 900 500 550

Shortfall in base load, MW 750 900 -350 -100 450 -100

Peak load capacity

Peak load (plus reserve) in 1980, 50% of total, MW 7,000 4,000 2,000 1,500 1,250 950

Peak load in 1969, MW 2,700 1,400 300 300 300 500

New peak load required, MW 4,300 2,600 1,200 1,200 950 450 Peak load planned or on order, MW 1,300 1,400 50 150 0 100

Shortfall in peak load, MW 3,000 1,200 1,150 1,050 950 350 TABLE 11. ESTIMATED ANNUAL FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN 1980

fuel plant type NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas Aust.Total MW ton/y HW ton/y MW ton/y MW ton/y MW ton/y MW ton/y MW ton/y black coal base 6500 16.8 - 1900 4.9 - 750 1.9 - 9150 23.6 peak 2700 2.1 1600 1.3 4300 3.4 total 4too iG.q — H 3500 6.2 _ _ 750 1.9 _ _ 13,450 27.0

brown coal base - 3600 38.9 - 300 2.1 - - 3900 41.0 peak 200 0.7 200 0.7 total — _ 3800 39.6 •. — 300 2.1 _ _ _ - 4100 41.7

oil base - _ 600 1.0 500 0.8 1100 1.8 peak 1000 0.6 650 0.4 1000 0.5 150 0.1 2800 1.1 total _ _ 1000 0.6 _ _ 1250 1.4 1500 1.3 150 0.1 3900 2.9

gas (a) base - - 600 13 - - 600 13 peak 1000 21 650 14 1650 35 total _ _ 1000 21 _. _ 1250 27 - - - 2250 48

nuclear base 500 - - - - - 500 peak

total 500 a* —• • «• 500

hydro (b) base 100 - - 950 1050 peak 2900 1400 600 4900 total 2900 1400 100 - - 1550 5950 — fuel plant type NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas Aust Total MW ton/v MW ton/y MW ton/y MW ton/y MW -ton/y VM ton/y MW ton/y reserve (c) all types 1400 800 400 300 250 200 33^,0 total all types 14,000 8000 4000 3000 2500 1900 33,400

I

(a) gas consumptions in thousand million c ft (b) includes Snowy entitlements (c) fuel consumption is negligible 9-2A

Z-0

WA-... 2-5

. '••...-•.WA •^-—.-v^V -—^ Qld o SA&' 245 "^a*~»>*NSYV V?C'*'...' SA

8 1-5 - s I

J « •Tot i „~.-.^S I 051 y^ S"

o a o o a oO> e 1950 1955 I960 1965 1970 1975 year *> c Figure 2 Changes in the average cost of electricity to consumers 1945 1950 1955 I960 1965 1970 in the various states. year figure 1 The increase in electricity generating capacity installed In Australia.

100

oe

I

i%m

S mid o night •u o Figure 3 Fluctuations in demand for electric power in Victoria: o a June day of maximum demand 1950 1955 I960 1965 1970 !975 b Average December day y«ar Figure •» Changes in the average cost of coal at power stations "in the various states. 9-25

1-2

1955 I960 1965 1970 1975 I960 10 year Figure 5 Growth in annual maximum demand for electric power in the various states. (Broken lines show extrapolations to future maximum demands based on growth rates given 0-8- in Table 10). i >» 0-6

0-4 J? o k.

e 0-2

*S 8 0-01 JL -L 1965 1970 1975 I960 1985 1990 yaor

Figure 6 Changes in the cost of generating electricity in different ways: a, nuclear fuel; b, brown coal; o, black coal; d, fuel oil; full lines are at a load factor of 80* HCK, broken lines at 25* HCR. Assumptions made are: (i) fossil fuel costs increase by 2* p.a. from 1970 costs, which are: brown coal §0.80 per ton; black coal $3.00 per ton; fuel oil $12.50 per ton (ii) nuclear fuel costs 0.13 c per kWh generated (ill) plant size is 350 MW in 1970 and Increases by 7% p.a. (iv) plant costs in 1970 are: nuclear $67 million; brown coal $50 million; black coal $33 million) fuel oil $27 Billion. Costs increase by the 0.7th power of the increase in size, (v) for nuclear plant improved technology results in a capital cost reduction of 2t p-a. (vi) capital charges are at a flat rate of 9% p.a. (vli) operating charges are at a rate of Si of capital cost p.a., computed only for the period the plant Is operating. 10-1

PAPER 10

OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT IN BASS STRAIT AND SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR THE AUSTRALIAN OIL INDUSTRY

BY: T. H. RAMSAY*

SUMMARY

The discovery of oil and gas in Bass Strait represents a major find by world standards. The development of these discoveries in water depths up to 300 ft has utilized techniques at the forefront' of world technology. For Australia as a whole, the discovery of this crude oil has meant that within the next year indigenous crude oil should be providing over 50$ of Australia's total requirements. However, more fields_ the size of Kingfish will be needed during the next 20 years to reach and maintain self-sufficiency in our expanding economy. The concentration of the major oil discoveries in Victoria has produced a dramatic ..increase in the requirements of Australian-flag tankers. Quality of the crude is exceptionally high - it is extremely low in sulphur and has an unusually high potential gasoline content, making it very suitable for the Australian market with its high motor spirit demand. The crude oil quality is resulting in some change in refinery development and processing schemes, as most existing refineries were designed for the heavier high sulphur crudes from the Middle East.

1. INTRODUCTION

For many years petroleum - crude oil or finished products - has been the largest single item on the commodity list of Australia's imports. In 1969 it amounted to $237 m, excluding freight - about 11$ of all commodity imports. There has therefore been a steadily increasing incentive for Australia to find its own supply o£ crude oil. This has particularly been the case since the expansion of refining facilities that followed World War II. The first com­ mercial discoveries of crude oil had to await the 1960's -. first at Moonie in 1.961, then at Barrow Island in 1964-. This paper reviews the discovery and

* Manager, Logistics, B.H.P.'Co. Ltd., Oil and Gas Division. I U-/C development of the Bass Strait fields from 1965 and makes an assessment of the impact of these discoveries on some aspects of the Australian oil industry.

2. DISCOVERY AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE BASS STRAIT FIELDS

2.1. Exploration in Bass Strait

B.H.P. first started looking for oil near Wollongong in New South Wales in 1955. No positive results were obtained from this work, and in 1959 the company engaged Lewis G. Weeks, a world-renowned geological consultant from U.S.A., to advise it. His advice was to take up the exploration title to the Bass Strait area.

In 1960 offshore exploration was just developing and it was only possible to drill in very shallow water close to the shore. However, the technology was developing rapidly and it was clear that by the time such areas could be explored adequately, it would be possible to drill and produce oil in water -up to 300 ft deep. This would be sufficient to cover the main areas of interest in Bass Strait.

His assessment at that time was based on the projection of trends established from outcropping rocks on shore. The initial exploration offshore which followed included an airborne magnetometer survey and marine seismic surveys. Three separate geological sedimentary basins were the subject of these surveys. The Gippsland Basin, which lies wholly within Victorian waters, looked to be the most promising. The other two basins were Otway, lying within Victorian, Tasmanian,and South Australian waters, and Bass, lying within Victorian and Tasmanian waters.

In order to obtain the necessary technological^ expertise and resources to continue with the exploration and development of the area following the completion of these original surveys and their promising interpretation, participation in the exploration was offere4 to international organizations capable of carrying out such a major programme of exploration and development. 18 major international companies submitted tenders and as a result,.in May 1964, an agreement was signed by B.H.P. and Esso Exploration Australia Inc. for further exploration, including drilling of the Gippsland Basin, with subsequent agreements covering the Bass and Otway Basins.

Esso commenced operations in the Gippsland Basin in June 1964. The self-propelled drilling vessel, Glomar III, drilled the first well on the Barracouta structure in the Gippsland Basin, where it discovered a large gas field in February 1965. In 1968-69 two additional floating rigs operated in the Gippsland Basin - the self-propelled drilling vessel Discoverer II and the semi-submersible unit Ocean Digger, the latter constructed at the Whyalla shipyards.

Since 1965 there have been 27 exploration wells and 13 stepout wells drilled by the partnership in the Gippsland Basin, resulting in three producing oil fields and three commercial gas fields.

A summary of the results obtained by B.H.P. and Esso in these Bass Strait areas is given in Table 1 and Fig. 1 shows their location. For further details of this exploration and the geology of the area, see Hopkins.^

Table 2 shows the estimated recoverable oil reserves. Both Kingfish and Halibut fields are large by world standards. Of the many thousands of fields 1U-;J throughout the world, Kingfish is classified within the first seventy. In fact only seven fields larger have been discovered, in the United States in the last 100 years.

After these initial successes, the results in the past two years or so have been rather disappointing. The most encouraging sign recently has been the discovery of hydrocarbons in the Pelican well in the Bass Basin. Although it is not yet known whether this well has resulted in the discovery of a commercial field, it has been the first sign of any hydrocarbons of significance in Bass Strait outside the Gippsland Basin. It lies about 50 miles from the Tasmanian coast. Further drilling in Bass Strait by the partnership was suspended from July this year In order to allow the results so far obtained to be studied adequately. The pause will last for at least six months.

As a result of the successful exploratory wells, and subsequent stepout wells, it was decided that Barracouta and Marlin should be developed for gas production, and Halibut and Kingfish for crude oil production. With the com­ pletion of the necessary permanent offshore platforms, undersea pipelines, and purification plants, natural gas was fed into the Victorian Pipelines Commission's 30 in. main to Melbourne in March 1969. The crude oil stabilization plant was brought on line in March 1970 and the first shipment of crude oil from the Halibut and Barracouta field, where a small reservoir of oil was discovered beneath the main gas field, was made on the 24-th March, 1970. At the time of writing., the two platforms necessary to produce from the Kingfish field have been set in • position and the undersea pipelines and producing facilities are expected to be ready for operation late in 1970.

2.2. Field Characteristics

All the commercial oil and gas fields so far discovered in the Gippsland Basin occur in the same geological sequence as Victoria's extensive brown coal deposits, the Latrobe Valley formation. The sandstones in which the accumulations of oil and gas occur are essentially clean, with good porosity and excellent permeability. Details of individual fields are given by Robinson and Stewart.

The oil fields are expected to develop a strong water drive, and as the oils are highly undersaturated, the recovery mechanisms will be a straight displacement of oil by water.

The properties of the crude oil after stabilization are shown in Table 2.

2.3. Field Development

When the development of the Bass Strait oil fields was commenced early in 1967, much of the proposed work had not been carried out anywhere else under the conditions applying in Bass Strait. Throughout the programme a number of key operations were carried out for the first time in the world.

The initial requirement was a construction base,, and a 296-acre site was selected at Barry Beach near Welshpool, 120 miles south-east of Melbourne. Here the offshore platforms have been fabricated, a pipecoating plant erected,and facilities for'servicing the exploration rigs and production platforms installed. Permanent platforms each capable of supporting 10 to 24 wells are necessary to provide a base for development of the1 field and are used for. the life of the field. The,platforms are constructed from pipe up to :45 in. in diameter,' and • vary in weight from about 2,000 tons in the case of Barracouta up to almost 5,000 tons in the case of Halibut. The main supporting structure, known as the "jacket", is towed out to sea on a large barge, "launched" over the.spot where I

After the- jacket has been secured by piles driven into the sea bed up to 200-ft, the deck is brought out separately and placed in position. The decks of the largest of these platforms (Halibut and Marlin) each measure 118 ft by U2 ft J' The design of these jackets is calculated to withstand the maximum wave formation likely to be experienced in a 100-year period. There are two decks, which are at 65 ft. and 4-7^- ft above sea level?where they will be above direct wave action.

Corrosion of the steel structure is prevented by cathodic protection for the parts immersed continuously, and by the use of "monel" metal wrap for steal in the splash zone. All steels standing clear of the water are protected by inorganic zinc-based paint.

The weather in Bass Strait has had a serious effect on the rate of progress and hence the cost of the venture. Although it does not exhibit the extremes encountered in some other offshore areas of the world, it is actually amongst the worst in Australia. For variability it does indeed rank amongst the worst in the world. No time of the year can be classed as a "work season". Some typical operational effects of weather on the Bass Strait drilling programme have been given by the Victorian Ministry of Fuel and -Power. ^

2.1+. Development Drilling and Platform Production Facilities

. The drilling of a number of wells from a single platform is done by using deviated wells. Details of this technique are given by Lonie and Forbes.4- In this way up to 2/+. wells are being drilled from one platform, so that a wide area of the field can be covered. Only in the case of the large Kingfish field are two platforms necessary, and each of these can.accomodate 21 wells.

On each platform, facilities are installed to remove water and sand from the oil or gas flow. Liquids which condense from the gas are re-injected into the gas stream together with methanol, which prevents the formation of hydrates.

The water removed from crude oil in knock-out vessels is passed through a skimmer tank to remove all traces of oil before being returned to the.sea.

2.5. Pipelines

The pipeline system used for carrying the gas and oil ashore to the processing plant near Sale has a total of 236 miles of pipe ranging in diameter from 6 in. to 26 in. Of this, 156 miles is offshore.

The longest run of offshore line is from Kingfish via Halibut and Marlin to shore, a distance of 62 miles.

Two completely separate lines for gas are provided from the Barracouta and Marlin fields, to ensure security of supply. The purified gas is delivered from the Sale plant into the Victorian Pipelines Commission's 30 in. diameter line for transmission to Melbourne - a distance of approximately 110 miles.

After stabilization, crude oil is pumped down'a 28 in. diameter line to IU-5 the Long Island Point Terminal on Westernport Bay. Mixed LPG (ethane/propane/ butane) is fed down a 10 in. diameter line to the fractionation plant.at Long Island Point.

The offshore lines are constructed from 4-Oft lengths which have been coated with coal tar enamel against corrosion and then weight-coated with concrete. These lengths are then welded at sea on the lay barge and laid in position using a stinger upto 500 ft in length which is designed to guide the pipe to the sea bed gradually and so prevent undue bending stresses on it. A description has been published of the latest of these barges, the twin-hull derrick bar?** ^hon+qw.^ All lines laid in water depths less than 200 ft are being buried at least 2 ft below the sea bed, except in the surf area, where 10 ft is used. Cathqdic protection is also used on all offshore and onshore lines.

The 24- in. diameter crude oil pipeline from the Halibut platform to the shore was laid in two sections to reduce laying time to a minimum. An under­ sea join was then made, about 30 miles from shore, in about 220 ft of water. At that time, a join of this type under such conditions had not been attempted anywhere in the world. It was carried out by using a specially constructed steel chamber or "habitat" which was positioned over the join so that the weld could be made in a 'dry' atmosphere.°

.Two-phase flow takes place in both gas and oil lines before the Sale treatment plant is reached. Condensate drops out of the gas stream on cooling, and frequent pigging of the line between the platform and the gas plant is carried out using pipeline spheres.

Kingfish and Halibut crude contain 13.0 and 26.8$ wax respectively. The stabilized crude oil stream exhibits non-Newtonian flow characteristics near its pour point, which may be upto 65°F. The minimum temperatures of the pipeline environs expected are 53»5°F offshore and 4-5°F onshore.

From a study of the flow properties of the oils, it appears that there should be no difficulty in maintaining pumpability down to temperatures around 4-5°F. No difficulty is expected in restarting pumping in the offshore lines at normal operating pressures. If the 28 in. line from Sale to Westernport were shut down for a prolonged period during a time of minimum temperature, a high restart pressure could be required. For this reason provision has been made in the design for several points where pressure could be applied to break down the gel in the unlikely event of such conditions occurring.

2.6. Processing

A simplified flow diagram of the processing scheme for gas and oil is shown in Fig. 2. Gas is treated to remove ethane and heavier hydrocarbons, as well as traces of H^S, to meet the sales specifications before being fed into the VPC pipeline. Butanes and lighter hydrocarbons are removed from the crude oil in the stabilization plant so that the vapour pressure of the crude oil is reduced. The mixed gases from the crude oil are passed to the gas plant. Ethane, propane, and butane are recovered as a mixed stream from both gas and oil, and delivered up the 10 in. line to the fractionation plant at Long Island Point.

The mixed stream of LPG is fractionated at Long Island Point into its components. Ethane is used at present as fuel but will eventually be supplied via a pipeline td the Altona Petrochemical Company for conversion into ethylene.

This fractionation plant is essentially an integral part of the facilities 10-6

at Sale, but final separation into components is made when the raw product reaches the shipping pointy to reduce the requirements of pipeline and transfer facilities.

2.7. Storage and Transportation 2 Crude oil is stored at the Long Island Point Terminal in eight tanks each of 268,000 barrel capacity. These are fitted with floating roofs, as well as heating and circulating facilities, to prevent wax deposition. The loading jetty has been built to accommodate 100,000 dwt tankers. In addition, a 42 in. diameter pipeline has been constructed to the Crib Point Pier to provide a second loading berth. This line also serves to supply the needs of the BP refinery at Crib Point.

The proposed 24 in. diameter crude oil pipeline to the Altona and Geelong refineries (WAG line) is currently being re-examined for an alternative route, since the State Government refused to grant a permit for the line to cross Port Phillip Bay. It is not now expected that this line could be operational before 1972.

Marketable propane and butane (LPG) are stored at atmospheric pressure in six refrigerated storage tanks, each of 135,000 bbl capacity. LPG is being exported to Japan in refrigerated tankers up to 4-5?000 tons in capacity.

3- SOME IMPLICATIONS OF THE INDIGENOUS CRUDE OIL DISCOVERIES FOR THE AUSTRALIAN OIL INDUSTRY

3.1. Crude Oil Self-sufficiency

There has been much talk about Australia's "self-sufficiency" in petroleum since the Bass Strait discoveries 3 years ago. It is"a term which needs to be clearly understood in the context in which it is used.

"Self-sufficiency" is normally taken to mean indigenous crude oil production sufficient to meet the country's total requirements of petroleum products over a stated period of time. It also implies that production at the close of the period should be equal to the demand at that time.

On this basis the degree of self-sufficiency reached by indigenous production in 1972 is estimated to be about 65%. In the years that follow, if no more discoveries are made, this number drops steadily because of increasing demand for products and depletion of the crude oil reserves.

The announced reserves of presently known fields represent about 20% of the requirements to maintain self-sufficiency through to 1990 - by which time they will be largely depleted. However, this cannot be taken to mean that we only need to discover about four times our present reserves to maintain self- sufficiency over the next 20 years. Experience from established oil-producing areas is that the maximum producing rate per year is limited to 10% - 15% of the remaining proved recoverable reserves. Thus to meet a production rate equal to the maximum requirements in 1990 would require a large amount of oil still left in the reservoirs -up to 6,000 million barrels.

This in turn means that nine or ten further discoveries in the period, each with recoverable reserves approximately equal in size to the huge'Kingfish field, would be required to maintain self-sufficiency throughout the period 1972- 1990. Having in mind the inconclusive results from exploration in Australia during 10-7 the last two years and the low probability of finding individual fields as big as Kingfish or Halibut, it is clear that a much greater expenditure and effort on exploration is going to be required if we are to approach self- sufficiency in the foreseeable future.

It is also pertinent to note that crude oil so far discovered in Australia is not ideally suited for lubrieating-oil or bitumen manufacture. To achieve full self-sufficiency it will be necessary to find a satisfactory oil for the manufacture of these products.

3.2. Imports

One immediate effect of the rapid build-up of crude oil supplied from Bass Strait has been on imports of crude oil. In 1969, Australia imported over 90$ of its crude oil requirements (168 million barrels), mostly from the Middle East (70$), and Indonesia and neighbouring States (29$). The cost of this crude, including freight, was $347 m. For 1972, even with the rising demand, it is estimated that only 35$ of total requirements (about 75 million barrels) will be needed, at a cost of about $1-40 million. The net saving of foreign exchange for 1972 has been estimated at about $150 m.9

Indigenous crudes are much higher in quality than imported crudes, inasmuch as they are capable of producing higher yields of white products (gasolines, kerosines, and diesel fuels) than imported crudes when processed through refineries equipped with catalytic crackers (Table 3). As most Aus­ tralian refiners are in a position to take advantage of the high quality of the local crudes in this way, it is anticipated that much of the heavy fuel oil requirements will be imported, either as finished products direct to coastal installations (to avoid double handling and minimize freight costs) or as components for blending or as heavy crude into refineries. However, it is expected that the impact of natural gas will lessen the rise in fuel oil demand and so modify the need for such imports.

3.3. Exports

The increasing Australian crude oil production is also having some effect on the pattern of petroleum, exports. Following the expansion of the refining industry in Australia during the 1950's, considerable volumes of products were exported upto 1968. Export refining was largely used by certain companies as the most economic way to meet some of the South East Asian and Pacific areas' market requirements, mainly for kerosines and fuel oil. These exports have steadily diminished during the past decade as local product requirements have increased. In fact, 1969 was the first year since the establishment of the refining industry in Australia when imports of fuel oil have exceeded exports• As mentioned in Section 3.1, the effect of the production of Gippsland crude oil in large volumes will be that fuel oils now will become a significant import and any exports will only be small quantities of special grades to meet some requirements in nearby marketing areas.

Exports of indigenous crude oil itself are not likely in any substantial amount. Government has stated that any company may.export up to 20$ of.its allocation of indigenous crude oil at least to the end of 1970. The development of further large discoveries could alter this situation, but this is obviously some years off.

3»4. Coastal Transportation Since 1964 virtually all movements of petroleum products and crude oil 10-8

around the Australian coast have been made in Australian-flag tankers. Prior to 1969 there were 12 vessels, ranging in size from 5,300 dwt to 22,000 dwt, operating in this way. During 1968-69 they moved a total of 6.8 million tons of petroleum products and crude oil.

With the start of the Bass Strait production, the amount of petroleum products and crude oil estimated to be moved between Australian ports during 1971 has risen dramatically to about 13 million tons. To meet these requirements, three large crude carriers have been brought on to the coast in the past year. By the beginning of 1971 it is estimated that another carrier of about 60,000 dwt will be required. The "Amanda Miller" of 62,000 dwt is currently being built at B.H.P.'s Whyalla shipyard and should be operational In 1971.

Under current Government regulations, when^ an overseas vessel is con­ verted for use on the Australian coast, a commitment is incurred to replace it within 4-5 years with an Australian-built vessel of a similar capacity. At present the only yard building a tanker in the 60,000 dwt range is B.H.P.'s yard at Whyalla. This yard was also responsible for the building of the semi- submersible drilling rig "Ocean Digger" in 1968.

So far, Australian yards have completed four tankers totalling 96,000 dwt, and six more totalling 250,000 dwt are on order or have been announced. Those now on order are a direct result of the discovery of the Gippsland fields.

3.5. Crude Oil Quality and the Effect on Refining

The full implications for the Australian refining industry of the ab­ sorption of 50% or more of its requirements as Gippsland crude oil are being covered in another paper.° It will suffice here to outline the major differences in quality between the Gippsland crude and the previously imported crudes, and the broad effect on processing requirements.

Table A shows the weighted average distillation yields (atmospheric and vacuum) for the imported crudes in 1968. For comparison, the estimated yields from Gippsland' crude when it reaches maximum production in 1971-72 are also shown.

The following broad conclusions can be drawn:

(1) The higher proportion of straight-run gasoline in Gippsland crude means that a higher proportion of motor spirit will be made from distillation and reforming processes and less from catalytic cracking. In addition, the quality of the naphtha in Gippsland crude used as reformer feed is higher than that in imported crudes, and will enable reformers to run at higher efficiency.

(2) These quality differences will mean that the existing catalytic cracking capacity in Australia will be adequate for a number of years. Immediate expansion to meet the normal growth in demand in white products is thus taking place in the distillation and reforming units.

(3) The very low sulphur content of the diesel fuel and residue from Gippsland crude will make further desulphurizing plants and sulphur recovery units unlikely.

(4) The residue from the atmospheric distillation of Gippsland crude oil is low in viscosity and very low in sulphur (about 0.3$ by weight compared with Middle East residues up to A% by weight). It is also a waxy material, but 10-9 providing precautions are taken to heat tanks and lines it makes a highly desirable fuel oil from the anti-pollution viewpoint and for certain industrial processes such as steel-making and metal refining, where low sulphur levels are essential.

Because refineries already built have mostly b--;on designed for heavier crudes, some modifications to existing equipment uru required to make best use of the higher-quality indigenous crudes. However, it seems th^fc the quality aspects mentioned above should result in significantly lower investment per barrel of white product produced than would be required if Middle East crudes continued to predominate.

U. ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The author is grateful for the assistance of the technical staff of B.H.P. Oil and Gas Division and Esso Standard Oil (Australia) Ltd. in the preparation of this paper, and for permission to publish it.

5.. REFERENCES

(1) HOPKINS, B.M. Exploration in the Gippsiand, Bass and Otway Basins. Aus. I.M.M. Conf., 1970. Paper 10.

(2) ROBINSON, K., and STEWART, W.J. Development of Gippsiand Basin Oil and Gas Fields. Aus. I.M.M. Conf., 1970. Paper 11.

(3) Ministry of Fuel and Power, Victoria. Offshore Exploration for Oil and Natural Gas in Australia. Liberal Speakers' Group Conf., Sept. 1968, pp. 15-17.

(A) LONIE, W.M., and FORBES,•G.J. Offshore Developments, Gippsiand Basin, Australia. Ninth Commonwealth Min. Met. Congr., 1969. Paper 26.

(5) ANON. Oil and Gas Intl.. 1969, 2(9), 52.

(6) ANON. B.H.P. Journal. 1970, £6(3), 1. '

(7) FUEL BRANCH, DEPARTMENT. OF NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AUSTRALIA. The Impact of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Discoveries on Australia's Fuel Policies. ECAFE Petroleum Resources Symposium, Canberra, 1969, p.21.

(8) NOMMENSEJJ, A.C. The Effect of Bass Strait Crude Oil on Australian Refinery Technology. Paper to 1970 Conf., Inst. Fuel, Aust.

. (9)" FREEMAN, R.D. CEDA Minerals Project - Crude Oil Paper (1970). MO

TABLE 1. BASS STRAIT OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION WELLS fell Date Spud-in Total Depth (ft) Result .TTGIPPSLAND BASIN Barracouta 27/12/64 8 701 Gas discovery Cod 20/9/65 9 540 Dry hole Marlin 5/12/65 8 485 Gas discovery KIngfish 6/4/67 8 451 Oil discovery Halibut 20/6/67 10 011 Oil discovery Dolphin 28/9/67 9 461 Oil -shows Perch 13/3/68 9 416 Non-commercial oil Barracouta 20/4/68 11 772 Oil discovery Tuna 7/5/6S 11 944 Gas, oil shows Snapper 8/5/68 12 320 Oil, gas shows Flounder 10/7/68 11 ^40 Oil, gas discovery Groper 18/12/68 3 379 Dry hole Mullet 9/1/69 2 463 Dry hole Salmon 14/1/69 9 865 Suspended Bream 23/2/69 10 657 Hydrocarbons Mackerel 27/3/69 10 003 Non-commercial oil shows Flathead 25/4/69 3 494 Oil shows Turrum 25/5/69 10 029 Gas shows Wahoo 27/5/69 2 446 Dry hole Bluebone 26/9/69 1 984 Dry hole Gurnard 3/10/69 9 724 Dry hole Bonita 22/10/69 10 430 Dry hole Tailor 4/11/69 8 498 Dry hole Trevally 28/1/70 7 493 Dry hole Bai^fish 6/4/70 9 761 Gas shows Alba core- 6/5/70 10 686 Dry hole Emperor 5/6/70 6 545 Hydrocarbon shows (k) BASS BASIN Bass 1 21/7/65 7 717 Dry hole Bass 2 14/4/66 5 910 Dry hole Bass 3 11/2/67 7 978 Dry hole Pelican 19/3/70 10 428 Hydrocarbon shows Cormorant 10/6/70 9 845 Hydrocarbon snows (c) OTWAY BASIN Crayfish 24/9/67 10 497 Dry hole Prawn 19/1/68 10 477 Dry hole Nautilus 13/4/68 6 597 Dry hole Argonaut 14/5/68 12 163 Dry hole Clam 19/7/69 5 323 Dry hole Mussel 18/8/69 8 038 Dry hole Chama 26/1/70 9 015 Dry hole Whelk 6/3/70 4 800 Dry hole 10-11

TABLE 2. PHYSICAL PROPERTIES AND RESERVES OF GIPPSLAND CRUDE OILS RESERVOIR SULPHUR POUR POINT RECOVERABLE OIL FIELD DEPTH (FT) GRAVITY (WT.%) (°F) RESERVES (MMbbl) Barracouta 4,530 61 0.06 -44 8 Kingfish 7,570 46 0.13 65 1060 Halibut 7,874 42 0.11 50 440

TABLE 3. PRODUCT YIELDS BASED ON CATALYTIC CRACKING REFINERY AVERAGE IMPORTED GIPPSLAND. PRODUCTS CRUDE (1968) CRUDE Straight Run Gasoline 24.1 38.5 Cracked Gasoline 23.7 19.3 TOTAL GASOLINE 47.8 57.8 Aviation Turbine Fuel 6.7 8.0 Automotive Diesel Oil 13.7 18.1 Marine Diesel 7.9 Fuel - Oil and Gas 23.0 14.9 Loss 0.9 1.2 TOTAL 100.0 100.0

TABLE 4. DISTILLATION PRODUCTS AVERAGE IMPORTED GIPPSLAND PRODUCTS - VOL % CRUDES (1968) MIX Butanes and lighter 1.9 2.6 Straight Run Gasoline 23.9 38.5 Kerosines 7.4- 8.0 Die&el Fuals 'I5--.5 18.1 • Waxy Distillate- 33.3; 30.6 Short Residue 18.0 2.2 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 GAS SALES TO VPC 30 in Pipeline

10 in. Ethane Propane Butane Ethane (Gaseous) JZ E

Gas From Offshore Gas Fields GAS LPG Storage Gas From OUProcess/nc, BE PROCESSING FRAGTIOSATIOH PLANT PUNT Crude Oil Storage

Crude Oil From Offshore Oil Fields 25//i Crude Oil E y vi E JZ

^: -¥- ^ ^: -V- -? LOCATED AT LONGFORD LOCATED AT LONG ISLAND POINT

FIG.2 - Crude Oil and Natural Gas Processing - Simplified flow diagram • Pjoductw! Plathtm ¥P2 o> . Oil show Miles -*jf- Gu show 0Groptf I -|J<- Oil & Gas shorn IT Kilomct'ts 0Gnttt2 o -Oiiliing a Oiv lull Wtandomd)

• Hwrnhi PMrelrai OfWwi tatts-Esso Fptm n Hmtitt PltnlNm PtfUliJi iM»ttyo<»ntd»taid^o»Thi Bn»wHiH Prope^^ FIG.1 - B.H.P.-Esso Petroleum Activities, South-east Australia PAPER 11

AUSTRALIAN CRUDE OILS: THEIR EFFECT ON INDUSTRIAL CRUDE OILS

By: H. W. BADDAMS*

SUMMARY

The processing of increasing and significant quantities of indigenous crudes in Australian refineries is causing significant changes in the quality and quantity of their output of residual fuel oils. These changes are set out, together with their effect on the products supplied to industry. Users can expect that the new products will be responsible for some minor variations in application, and some benefits from the clean-air aspect,

1. INTRODUCTION

Ever since their inception, oil refineries in Australia have utilized Middle and Far East crude oils, or in some cases a mixture of the two. The discovery of crude oil in Australia, beginning in 1964-65 with production of small quantities from the Moonie and then Alton fields, Queensland, and grow­ ing since 1966-67 with the introduction of a further producing field at Barrow Island in Western Australia and later the much larger Gippsland fields in Victoria, is now (1970) meeting a considerable proportion of Australian crude oil requirements. This fact, coupled with the Federal Governments regulations which make it necessary from the economic aspect for these refineries to process local crudes to the limit of their production, is rapidly changing the.pattern of refinery feedstocks.

The Australian quality feedstocks produce limited amounts of residual fuel oils and no lubricating oils or bitumens. Because of this, Government legislation has been designed to allow, without penalty, the importation of crudes, feedstocks, or products to satisfy the relevant market demands* Other­ wise these products would be in short supply, or very expensive, or unobtainable from Australian refineries production.

* Chief Combustion Engineer, The Shell'Company.of Australia Limited. 11-2

2. PRESENT SITUATION

2.1. Manufacturing

Currently (early 1970), apart from minor quantities from the relatively small Moonie, Alton, and Barrow Island sources, residual fuel-oil products are produced from Middle East and Far East crudes used approximately in the proportion of 2 to 1• Many different components from within each refinery, which change considerably with different refineries, are used to produce what, finally, is sold to consumers as residual fuel oil. These differences, apart from being associated with the input quality of the crude, depend upon the type and complexity of refinery units. However, generally speaking, most commercial-quality fuel oils will contain fair proportions of one or more of the following components: -

(a) Long residue: The residue from a crude distiller operating at atmospheric pressure. (b) Short residue: The residue from a vacuum distillation unit. (c) Light and heavy cycle oils, which are side streams from the fraction- ator of a catalytic cracking plant and derive their name from their use for recycling to the feed stream when not directly required for other product manufacture.* 1 Table 1 sets out typical ranges of significant properties of these four comp­ onents obtained from Middle East, Far East, and Australian crude oils, from which are blended the industrial fuels sold to consumers at the present time.

2.2. Market quality 2 Table 2 sets out typical properties of industrial fuel oil as marketed in most areas of Australia today. In the past, crude-oil input patterns, coupled with the manufacturing capabilities of each refinery, have been designed to allow each individual refinery to produce its share of the total Australian market needs, subject to small imports and exports of some products. 3 Fig. 1 depicts a breakdown of the products into their main groups"^ for the year 1968-69.3

3. THE FUTURE

At the time of writing this paper, little actual refinery experience has been obtained with Gippsland crude oils, and the following assessment of the situation is the best that can be given, on the basis of current knowledge. It may be subject to minor variations as further experience is obtained with supplies from the various fields In the Gippsland Basin, and because different refineries may adopt different methods of achieving their production require­ ments.

Fig. 2 sets out the Australian refinery production, according to the main groups of products, for the year 1969^ and then compares it with the pro- •duction of an empirical refining group operating wholly on crude oil of vGippsland quality. From the comparison It is clear that this Australian crude;

. ..'.;r;*.Middle distillates, which are obtained from atmospheric crude distilla­ tion, are also used by most refineries as a fuel-oil component. However, the quality of this product does not vary much from crude to crude, particularly where desulphurination'/of this component is practisecL 11-3 if available in sufficient quantities, could cater adequately for the market requirements of all products except fuel oil, lubricating oil, and bitumen. However, the presently planned peak production of the Gippsland field, some time in 1971-72, is 300,000 barrels per day. This, combined with other existing production sources, at that time of the order of 50,000 barrels per day, will still be insufficient to satisfy "the total Australian requirements, which by then are expected to be of the order of 5A3,000 barrels/day. Fig. 3 sets out a pre­ dicted crude-oil usage pattern based on:

(1) Department of National Development (Fuel Branch) total requirement estimates. (2) Australian crude production achieving the forecast levels. (3) No additional sources of Australian crude coming into production during the period considered. (J+) No change in Government policy regarding the use of Australian crudes.

From Fig, 3 it is clear that, unless significant new discoveries of Aust­ ralian crude are in production before 1971-72, some 193,000 barrels per day of non-Australian crude, or its equivalent as fuel oil, lubrication oil, and bit­ umen will need to be imported. A situation is thus foreseen where Australian ' crudes will, be used for production of the gasoline and distillate type of pro­ ducts, and imported material mainly for production of the heavier products but also making up any shortfall in the gasoline/distillate type fuels.

Table 3 uses Fig. 2 proportions as a basis for production quantities from Australian crude oils, and compares the availability of product groups with the forecast requirements.-^ It thus indicates the shortfall volumes and percentages remaining to be obtained from imported crudes or products.

It will be seen from Table 3 that the make-up of shortfall products from 1970 to 1972 follows a continually changing pattern. This will mean that during this period reliance will be placed upon refinery flexibility, plus changes in crude type and product importations, to ensure that all requirements are met at all times.

One other small volume consideration is the requirement for lubricating oils and bitumens. Feedstock requirements for these products are largely fixed so as to ensure continuity of product quality and performance j so, apart from the fixed Australian crude usage, the feedstock required to manufacture these two products (approx. 5,000,000 barrels annually) will also remain fixed.

Fig. U depicts the total shortfall split up into main product groups after refining the total available Australian crude. Commencing with the year'1970-71, the fuel-oil proportion of the shortfall volume gradually increases until it becomes stabilized at something over 50% of the total, A single crude, capable of producing this proportion of residual fuel, without giving away quality or production capabilities of products having a greater profit potential, is thus required to satisfy these shortfall requirements. When and if such a crude is available the situation will therefore be simplified. If it is not available, indications are that either (1) direct importation of fuel oils as products is almost certain to occur; or (2) residual fuel quantities will be made up with lighter products.

The most likely source of imported fuel oils will be non-Australian re--: fineries in eastern areas using Middle and Far East crudes, and consequently" present quality will most likely be maintained (see Table 2). Further, as Middle East crudes tend to produce higher, proportions of fuel oil than-Far, East, 11-4

it is logical to assume that the majority of imported crudes will originate from the former sources.

The portion of our fuel-oil needs which will be manufactured at Aust­ ralian refineries must show changing qualities over the next few years, owing to the influence of one or more of the following factors: -

(1) Australian crude residual fuel components. (2) A diminishing proportion of Far East crudes in the import pattern, of course coupled with an increasing proportion of Middle East. (3) The use of lighter components or products to make up the volumes required. (4) Importation of fuel-oil components to blend-with those available at the refinery. Consideration of these four factors seriatim will help to build up a future fuel-oil quality picture.

3.1. Influence of Residual Components from Australian Crudes

Table 1 indicates that, generally speaking, the residual components from Australian crudes are not unlike those obtained from Far East crudes, with a tendency for pour points to be slightly (10-15 degF) higher, but viscosities and sulphur contents comparable.

3.2. Withdrawal of Far East Crudes from Refinery Feedstocks

In those cases where the supply of Far East crudes is withdrawn the Australian components will merely replace them, and hence changes will be as outlined in Section 3.1/• particularly in the earlier periods. Later the relative quantities available from these two crude sources will mean a tendency to lower pour points, higher sulphur, and (perhaps) marginally higher vis­ cosities because of the greater proportion of Middle East components being used,

3.3. The Use of Lighter Components or Products to Make up the Volumes Required

The difficulty of obtaining access to crude sources which will produce an exact match of product requirement will in all probability mean that fuel- oil market volumes can only be met by using lighter components or products to make up the volumes required (assuming direct fuel-oil imports are not adopted, or are limited in volume). Disposing of unavoidable surplus light products by diverting them into fuel-oil manufacture must have the effect of lowering viscosity and sulphur levels. The effect on pour point need not be so marked, as even a small proportion of high-pour material in a residual fuel-will tend to keep the pour points up. •

3»4. The Importation of Fuel-Oil Components,

It is logical to assume that the quality of the imports will be selected in order, as far as possible, to allow the final fuel oil to cater for the : quality requirements of the market - that is,to ensure that present quality (as set out in Table 2) is maintained. In brief, the most likely quality changes will be:- (a) Slightly higher pour points, (b) Lower viscosities. (c) Lower sulphur levels.

Some or all of these effects can be expected to occur with the fuel oil 11-5 produced at every refinery until the crude and feedstock input position again becomes stabilized.

4. APPLICATION EFFECTS

4.1. Slightly Higher Pour Points

Invariably, industrial fuel-oil installations are built with a safe margin in fuel heating capacity. It is unlikely that a slight pour point in­ crease, of the order of 10-15 degF, will therefore present any problem. At the worst, those installations with long above-ground exposed pipelines and intermittent operation might require the addition of line trace heating elements for winter periods. r 4.2. Lower Viscosities

Lower viscosities can only be an advantage in so far as they lower fuel heating and pumping costs and assist atomization. The latter, of course, must promote more efficient combustion.

4.3* Lower Sulphur Levels

The increasing world-wide emphasis on the need for greater efforts for environmental conservation make lower sulphur levels a desirable objective for Australian cities. It is not impossible that the next few years may achieve a 20-30% reduction in sulphur oxide emission to the atmosphere from oil fuels burnt by Australian industry, even allowing for the increasing volumes expected to be used.

4.4. Unchanged Quality a

This feature is most likely to be encountered in those refineries remote from the Gippsland fields^ and particularly in those cases where two or more refineries are operated by a single refining company. In such cases shipping costs must necessitate that Gippsland crude, for example, be allocated to the refineries closest to its point of origin, while those more remote will continue to use mainly imported crude oils and thus manufacture those industrial fuel-oil qualities which are most closely akin to those available at present.

5. CONCLUSIONS

Present planned production of Australian crude oil is not.sufficient to satisfy the total needs of any segment of Australia's expected product require­ ments. The need will remain to import crude oils or feedstocks particularly suitable for the manufacture of lubricating oils, bitumen, and industrial fuel-oils or perhaps even to import some fuel oils as such.

Minor quality variations such as higher pour points, lower viscosities and lower sulphur contents will not present serious difficulties, for users. The lower sulphur level factor gives attractive•considerations from a clean-air aspect.

6. ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The author thanks colleagues within the Shell Group for assistances in the; preparation of this paper and the Management of the Shell Group in Australia. for permission to publish it. 11-6

7. REFERENCES

(1) Various sources of published data on crude oils.

(2) Shell Company of Australia, laboratory analysis results.

(3) Commonwealth Department of National Development, Fuel Branch Statistics.

TABLE 1. COMPARISON OF SOME TYPICAL PROPERTIES OF FUEL-OIL COMPONENTS DERIVED FROM VARIOUS SOURCES

CRUDE OIL SOURCE

Middle East Far East Australian

Viscosity (cS) at 50°C Long residue 40-440 35-70 15-23 Short residue 5,700-37,000 2,000-14,000 2,000-60,000 Light cycle oil 2.1 2.1 2.1 Heavy cycle oil 7.8 7.8 8.2

Sulphur content (% weight) Long residue 2,3-4.1 0.1-0.2 0.2-0.4 Short residue 4.6-5.2 0.2-0.9 0.5-0.7 • Light cycle oil 2.2 0.2 0.2 Heavy cycle oil 2.5 0.3 0.3

Pour point ( F) Long residue 35-85 100-110 60-115 Short residue 50-80 110-115 80-120 Light cycle oil 20 20 20 Heavy cycle oil 85 85 120

TABLE 2. TYPICAL PROPERTIES OF THE MOST COMMON FUEL OIL GRADES UP TO EARLY 1970

PROPERTY TYPICAL RANGE

Viscosity (cS) at 50°C 55-80 Sulphur content {% wt.) 2.5-3.5 '• Pour point ( F) 30-5Q 11-7

TABLE 3. COMPARISON OF AVAILABLE PRODUCTS FROM AUSTRALIAN CRUDES AGAINST MARKET REQUIREMENT ('OOO barrels per year) P/Kero Auto/ Others • Avtur Dist. (by AvGas L/Kero Ind/ Fuel diff­ Year Total Mo gas H/Oil D/F oil erence) Forecast 62,880 12,460 requirement 179, 140 29,180 44,170 30,450 Avail. from 17,170 3,180 7,052 Aust. crude 38,325 8,087 2,836 1969-70 Shortfall 45,710 9,280 volume 140,815 21,093 41,334 23,398 Shortfall 78.6$ 72.7$ 74.5$ 72.3$ 93.6$ 76.8$ Forecast 188,290 66,380 13,690 45,920 30,950 requirement 31,350 Avail. from 42,025 17,260 Aust. crude 93,805 7,785 19,793 6,942 Shortfall 1970-71 38,978 volume 94,485 24,355 5,905 11,557 13,690 Shortfall 50.2$ 36.7$ 43.1$ 36.9$ 84.9$ 44.2/3 Forecast 198,270 69,860 15,180 requirement 33,640 48,550 31,040 Avail. from 23,506 Aust. crude 127,750 57,232 10,603 26,955 9,454 1971-72 Shortfall 70,520 12,628 39,096 volume 4,577 6,685 7,534 Shortfall 35.6% 18.2$ 30.2$ 19.9$ 80.5$ 24.3$ Forecast 208,790 50,810 31,580 requirement 73,340 16,920 36,140 Avail. from 57,232 23,506 Aust. crude 127,750 10,603 26,955 9,454 Shortfall 1972-73 81,040 16,108 volume 6,317 9,185 41,356 8,074 Shortfall 38.9$ 22.0$ 37.3$ 25.4$ 81.4$ 25.6$ Forecast 220,360 18,570 38,550 55,170 31,390 requirement 76,680 Avail, from 124,100 10,300 Aust. crude 55,597 26,285 9,183 22,834 Shortfall 1973-74 96,260 8,270 45,987 8,556 volume 21,083 12,265 Shortfall 43.7$ 27.5$ 44.5$ 31.8$ 83.4$ 27.3$' i ii i —=*- 'OOO'S BARRELS AUST. AUST. AUST. REF REFINERY PRODUCT CRUDE OIL 1969 REFINERY PRODUCTS AVAIL. PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION CONSUMPTION 'OOOBbls. OOO Bbls. '000 Bbls. PRODUCTION FROM GIPPSUSND 112, 480 CRUDE 167,719 164,370 1 I A A i & a a SHORTFALL 14,063 < Hfm\ ' AUSTRALIA*? FUEL OIL 28,952 OTHER 31.- »

BITUMEN !. UB. OIL

REF. FUEL LP.G. OTHERS

AUTO.DIST. IND B/F.

=MIDDLE= ^^liai EEASTi

MOGAS AVGAS

K>8,51<> 134, fcl4 FIG. 2. REFINERY PRODUCTION IN AUSTRALIA A COMPARISON OF IMPORTED AND LOCAL CRUDES FIG. I. 1968/69

('OOO'S BARRELS) aa mi wm MOGAS AVTURL/KESO AUTO DIST REF. FUa FUEL (ML AVGAS P/KERO H/01L IND. D/F LP6 OTHERS 1969/70 1970/71 197l/72 1972/73

IMPORTED CRUDE OR PRODUCTS

y X K / W

Vj / I / N- /

/ AUSTRALIAN

/ / y

Mb/iS 69/70 70/71 71/72 72JTZ 73/74 FIG.3. PREDICTED FUTURE AUST. CRUDE OIL USAGE OOO'S BARRELS PER DAY AVERAGE PRODUCT SHORTFALL AFTER PROCESSING FIG. 4. AUSTRALIAN CRUDE 12-1

PAPER 12

NATURAL-GAS DEVELOPMENT AND EXPERIENCE

By: A. J. WILLIS*

SUMMARY

A survey is given of developments in natural gas throughout the world during and since World War II. Among the features of natural gas which'render it exceptionally suitable as a fuel for a wide range of industries are that . . it requires no storage system, conveyors, or pumping equipment, and because ' of its wide flexibility in usage and application it can readily be incorporated into automatic control systems. The burning of natural gas produces no noxious products such as carbon particles and oxides of sulphur. By changing over to natural gas, therefore, factory owners and domestic fuel users can avoid the costly modifications and additions needed to bring their plant into conformity with the requirements of clean-air legislation. In Melbourne, Adelaide, and Brisbane about 750,000 gas customers are being converted to natural gas, at a cost of $4.0 million, and it is planned to complete the work by the end of 1970. An account is given of problems which have been encountered and solved in Australia in changing over to the new fuel.

1. INTRODUCTION

.Natural gas in Australia is only a little over one year old, and during most of this first year the gas industry has been concentrating its main efforts on the conversion of existing customers1 appliances and equipment. We in this country therefore have limited natural-gas experience on which "to comment. Therefore in this paper it is proposed to deal with the development of natural gas in the world energy scene, with certain aspects which are common to both Australia and the rest of the world, and with some of the more interestingvex­ periences to date in Australia.

General Manager, All'gas Energy Ltd., Brisbane. 12-2 ^ _

2. WORLD BACKGROUND

The demands of war have always produced rapid technological advances, many of which have later found valuable application in peacetime society. World War II undoubtedly produced more such developments than all previous wars combined, and among then were a number of special significance to the fuels industry* Many of these have not fulfilled their early promise, and others have proved much less spectacular than expected, although further progress and development has occurred.

Some of the new techniques developed during World War II were of value and significance to the natural-gas industiy, but the subsequent developments have exceeded even the most optimistic expectations- From an insignificant position pre-war, natural gas has, in recent years, become the fastest-growing primary fuel in the world. Today it supplies 16% of the world's primary energy and 36% of that of the U.S.A.

It is of interest to examine briefly what has brought about this rapid development. Early gas discoveries, mainly in the U.S.A., could only be used adjacent to the gas fields, as metallurgy and pipelining techniques did not permit of transmission of the gas at the pressures needed to make long­ distance transport economic. This situation was improving in the 1930's but wartime advances in heavy earth-moving machinery and in metals and welding techniques permitted the rapid post-war expansion. Probably one of the main contributing factors was the handing-over to private enterprise of the "Big Inch" and "Little Inch" pipelines, which had been built during the war to provide safe inland transport of oil from the Southern States to the New York area. These pipelines provided a ready-made means of transferring the vast quantities of natural gas from Texas and adjacent States to the densely populated and cold-weather areas of the Northern States. With other pipelines under con­ struction, the spread of natural-gas over the whole of the U.S.A. set a pattern for the rest of the world.

World War II also created a new international political situation, with Great Britain no longer the policeman of the world, particularly in the oil- rich Middle East. America aspired to take over this role and Russia posed a threat in many areas. These developments, together with the demand for fuels in the post-war boom, saw the Americans, with their long experience of oil exploration, drilling wells in many parts of the world which had previously not been seriously considered as worthwhile sources of oil. In particular, they were hoping for success in regions of high political stability and friendly to the western cause. This activity resulted in many discoveries of oil in areas where it had previously been unknown; but, more important for our present consideration, natural gas was found in France, Canada, Pakistan, North Africa, Holland, Germany, South America, New Zealand, Australia, the North Sea and, more recently-Alaska. The knowledge gained of constructing temporary harbours during the war assisted with the development of offshore drilling-and undersea pipeline techniques; this was fortunate as it was offshore drilling that led to many of the discoveries.

Pipelines of sizes never previously considered, and other means of transport, were needed to move the newly discovered natural gas to population centres and to major fuel-using industries. The construction problems have been overcome by the availability of high-tensile steel for pipe construction, thus allowing diameters and pressures to be increased without the necessity of excessive wall thickness, which would have materially Increased cost and added to laying problems. Simultaneously, welding techniques have been developed for the new steels, and testing methods to ensure sound construction, as well as 12-3 economical pipe-coating methods to provide long and safe life for the pipes when buried. Today pipelines are being laid of 42 in. diameter, for operating at over 1,000 lb/in.2

Undersea laying, with its particular hazards, has also become commonplace. In Australia we have the gas lines from the Bass Strait platforms supplying Melbourne, and in Britain there are undersea pipelines of almost 100 miles under the North Sea supplying the U.K. gas industry.

A further problem, perhaps even more difficult'sometimes than the technical one, arose in planning many pipelines. This was the crossing of international frontiers. It seems to be a pecular feature of oil and natural-gas discoveries that the quantity found is in inverse ratio to the human

Many frontier crossings have been made by the gas pipelines. Dutch gas is being aelivered into France, Belgium, West Germany, and Switzerland. Canadian gas supplies a significant part of the U.S. market. The Soviet Union has recently completed an agreement to pipe gas from its distant fields in Siberia and near the Urals to West Germany, and will also supply Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Hungary from the same system. One example of particular interest is the J+2 ini pipe recently completed to transport Iranian gas to the Soviet Union. . Thus, whereas the old overland trade routes supplied the riches of the east to Europe, now we have gas from the Middle East linking with Russia and feeding back to northern Europe and the Mediterranean area. With natural gas providing a link across such complex international frontiers there is some hope that the equally complex New South Wales - Victorian border may'one day. also be crossed by a natural-gas pipeline!

Some sources of natural gas have been even too remote for the ubiquitous pipeline to reach, but still the potential customers have pressed for these new sources to be tapped to meet their needs. This has created a completely new industry, namely, the liquefaction of natural gas and its transportation in bulk in liquid form. The techniques were first developed on a small scale for the transport of natural gas by barge on the Mississippi river, for use in the American company's own factory. The British gas industry, prior to gas discoveries in the North Sea, then developed this method in association with the same American company, to transport liquefied Saharan natural gas from Arzu (Algeria) to Canvey Island (on the Thames) and subsequently by pipeline over a large part of England. This scheme was quickly expanded to supply France, Italy, and Spain. More recently American interests have concluded an agreement to transport Algerian gas from the same source in large quantities across the Atlantic to the U.S.A.

The Philadelphia Gas Company, within the last few months, has initiated the first positive arrangements for liquefied natural gas to be purchased from South America and shipped to Pennsylvania to supply the attractive Northern — States market. Plans are being considered for the movement of the; recently•"• v i discovered natural gas in Alaska by ship or pipeline to the U.S. mainland, and also for selling liquefied gas to Japan.

Closer to home, the Shell Oil Company has concluded an agreement with Mitsubishi Shoji of Japan to. supply natural gas valued at approximately $1,500 m over 20 years from its Brunei gas and oil fields. This will require an invest­ ment of $-450 m in plant at Brunei. 12-4

For transport in liquid form at atmospheric pressure, the gas has to be cooled to -258°F and maintained at this temperature during handling. The liquid occupies only l/600th of the volume in liquid form that it would occupy in gaseous form.

Consideration will now be given to some of the features which make natural gas an attractive fuel and have given it a rapidly expanding market in competition with alternative fuels overseas. These factors are now operating in Australia also, with the completion of trunk pipelines to three major centres of population.

3. SUITABILITY

A fuel, particularly for use in industry, must be capable of being used under a variety of conditions and in many applications with a minimum of additional treatment after its delivery to the premises. Natural gas is unique in that it is delivered in gaseous form whereas in the case of both liquid and solid fuels, almost all combustion equipment and burners for their use are designed to convert the fuel into a finely divided state, as close as possible to that of the gas. This can be not only more costly in respect of equipment required but also makes them more susceptible to performance problems and increases maintenance requirements.

Natural gas can be used over the full range of applications in both size and type. The application may be as small as, say, a laboratory bunsen burner, whilst at the other end of the scale there is no real limit to the burner or furnace size to which it can be applied. In most usages, the furnace or com­ bustion chamber, similar to the general design for use with other fuels, is adequate, but with suitable burners gas can extend the"range of methods of heating, such as the radiant type burners which deliver a large part of the combustion heat as high-intensity infrared radiation^which is particularly suited to many drying applications.

Avoidance of contamination of the product is often essential, as in food processing. This usually necessitates indirect forms of heating, of which spray drying of milk is a typical example. Natural gas, however, can be fired directly with the product, as it contains no contaminating impurities and combustion can be accurately controlled to avoid damage to the. product.

The delivery of the fuel to the burner in a gaseous form can permit the shape and intensity of the flame to be widely varied to suit furnace requirements, which cannot be done so easily when the fuel is delivered to the burner or combustion chamber in a state other than that of a gas.

Similarly, with natural gas it is easy to vary the furnace atmosphere to meet the requirements for the process without the creation of unsatisfactory combustion conditions or serious inefficiencies. This is particularly important in many heat-treatment applications, and it can result in considerable saving of product rejects which often occur when some excess air is necessary to ensure satisfactory combustion of the fuel.

Already in Australia these "suitability" advantages of natural gas have been proved by customers. In the production of bricks, the improved finish from natural gas-fired kilns is quite striking, and in metal treatment processes customers have shown worthwhile savings from a lower percentage of rejects and improved work quality. 12-5

U» CONVENIENCE

As natural gas is piped direct to factory premises and thence to the point of combustion, there is no requirement for storage systems, conveyors, or pumping equipment,which require space and maintenance. This feature can be of particular value in locations where space is limited and costly. It also can, in some instances, assist in improving plant layout as the only requirement for the fuel is a pipe from the metering inlet.

The natural-gas consumer is not involved in checking fuel stocks or ordering fresh supplies, and it is simple to keep a constant check on fuel consumption by merely reading a meter.

In many instances natural gas is available at elevated pressures from new high-pressure mains systems. This results in savings in pumping costs, and enables simpler burner equipment to be used.

A large-scale example of this is the conversion of existing brick kilns, where gas &' a pressure of 15 lb/in.2 is now delivered direct to the point of combustion, and an auxiliary air supply is unnecessary.

5. AUTOMATION

Every industry today is examining means whereby the process can, as far as possible, be operated continuously over long periods with a minimum of direct labour, supervision, and maintenancev^^Natural gas is well suited to achieving this end, as with its wide flexibility in~~us«ge_rt can readily be incorporated into automatic control systems. Safety devices to^lfea-Ljjrth any abnormal con­ ditions are relatively simple, and the cleanliness of the fue"3r-ensures trouble- free operation. ~~~-—-. ...

Already there are examples in Australia where furnaces have been con­ verted from alternative fuels to natural gas, and upgrading of the control equip­ ment has allowed the elimination of a large part of the process and supervisory labour. In one particular instance, on a large furnace working three continuous shifts, it was possible for the proprietors to negotiate with the trade union to double the furnace installation without increasing process labour, but only on condition that the fuel • sed was natural gas.

The relative simplicity of gas burner equipment, the cleanliness of the fuel, and the ability to maintain a stable combustion condition over long periods, materially reduce maintenance requirements of both labour and components on burners, furnace linings, flues, and stacks.

6. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

It is now generally recognized that all industries have an obligation to the community to eliminate or minimize pollution associated with their particular processes. This can often involve the industry in heavy expense, but it is an expense which the community must bear if it desires to combine the advantages of modern technology with pleasant surroundings. The type of fuel used in factory premises can have a serious effect, not only on the atmosphere for many miles around but also on thei more immediate surrounding properties and living conditions. Natural' gas can make a1 major contribution to reducing atmos­ pheric pollution and physical damage to property. In the burning of natural gas, no noxious products are produced and the flue gas particularly is free from sulphur dioxide, sulphur trioxide, and carbon particles, whether in the form of 12-6

visible smoke or otherwise. We have already received approaches from industries where the damage by corrosion to their building roofs and structures from their own flue gases has been a major problem, which, of course, also means that other surrounding premises and residents must be suffering to some degree. In one instance ic was essential that the product, whilst being processed, be kept dry at all times; yet pinhole corrosion of the roof after only 3 years was causing considerable production loss.

Air pollution authorities are now established in all States, and as they implement the various requirements of their Acts, factory owners are finding it necessary to spend quite large sums on modifications to existing fuel-burning plant, and, even then, this does not entirely solve the total community pollution problem. Natural gas can assist in avoiding costly modifications and additions, -and -.at the same time ensure complete elimination of noxious discharge.

The handling of fuels can create a local dust and spillage problem which adds a further dimension to the pollution. A number of industries have already found it economic to purchase natural gas, even at a higher price than that of their existing fuel, to overcome the pollution complaints of all types, both from the Government authorities and the local community.

It would appear very opportune that natural gas is available in Australia at a time when pollution has become a major national issue, and that its use can provide many industries with at least one means of meeting the situation.

Even in the domestic field, where gas i-, A electricity provide most of the fuel for homes, the advantage in respect of the reduction of total community pollution lies with natural gas. It we take a typical household with cooking, -water heating, and space heating, the thermal input to the power station's '"generating plant is approximately twice that of the gas. fuel requirements which must be-.delivered and used in the home for the same end result. Thus, if we compare the"resulting pollution in its simplest form, the power plant will discharge approximately twice as much carbon dioxide and water vapour as the colnBasjtion--^f_jtihe natural....gas for the same customer requirement; but, in addition, the thermal--^tajbipiis -will carry into the atmosphere large quantities of sulphur and solids which have the-added problem of being highly concentrated in a limited number of locations. "'^---.....

7. ECONOMICS ^--••--..

The cost of gas manufactured from coal or oil and its production at relatively low pressures, has prevented the gas industry from entering large- volume fuel markets. Of necessity, major users require a relatively low-cost fuel, and their needs have in the past been met by the coal and oil industries* Natural gas has, however, altered thn,.s situation, and today, in most instances, it can be offered at prices competitive with the alternative fuels. This does not necessarily mean that it has to be sold more cheaply or even at the same price, but rather that it can command a price commensurate with its value to the end user.

It is, however, still essential that, taking into account all aspects, the cost to the user. •? competitive with that of alternative fuels. This situation has now been re&i^ud in Australia, and as a result natural gas is being sold to industries and for purposes for which gas has not been previously used in this country. 12-7

8. CUSTOMER CONVERSIONS

Since the introduction of natural gas to Australia in March, 1969, the gas industry has been preoccupied with the conversion of appliances and equipment of existing gas users. In the three main centres of Melbourne, Adelaide, and Brisbane, a total of almost 750,000 existing gas customers are being converted to natural gas, and this work will be almost completed by the end of 1970.

The cost of the conversions will total approximately $4-0 m. This figure alone indicates the magnitude of the operation, particularly when it is appreci­ ated that the work has involved at least two visits to every customer's premises, that the majority of customers have several appliances installed, and that as many of the appliances have multiple burners there are over 5,500,000 individual burners to be modified in the course of the work.

The gas industry has suffered some adverse publicity from problems which have arisen during this conversion period. Whilst undoubtedly there have been many difficulties, and some individual customers have suffered inconvenience, much of this publicity has been exaggerated, and has not recognized the large percentage of satisfactory conversions which have been completed.

An examination of similar operations in Europe, and in the earlier stages of American conversions, shows that the Australian problems have been no greater than those elsewhere. For many years now, all gas appliances sold in America have been primarily designed for use with natural gas, and, where sold for manufactured gas, had been suitably modified. In the U.S.A., therefore, the conversion was largely a matter of restoring the appliance to its originally designed working condition.

Australian domestic gas appliances have been designed to operate at high performance rates and efficiencies. This has been demanded by the code of the Australian Gas Association, which is the standard used by all gas utilities for" appliances they market. This high standard of burner design has been achieved by refining the components, and this has left only limited scope for modifications to enable them to operate on natural gas.

Natural gas has a flame speed of 1.02 ft/sec compared with a typical manufactured gas with flame speed of 2.2 ft/sec. This necessitates a substantial reduction in the port loading at the burner head. With many of the older burners of the cast-iron multiple-port drilled-head type this presented no great difficulty, but most of the more recent burner designs are of a circular ribbon type which leaves little scope for modification.• In many cases some form of flame retention has be to included in the converted burner head.

As the Btu input of the burners generally needs to be'maintained at a similar level, and natural gas has double the calorific value of manufactured gas the volume of gas delivered to the injector orifice must be halved. In many instances this made it more difficultto entrain ''Sufficient primary air at the ' venturi, particularly where the burner had been originally designed with only limited tolerance for manufactured gas. Minor misalignment between the in­ jector and the mixing tube, which may not have been significant on manufactured gas, could often prevent proper functioning of a burner converteor-to. natural gas.

An environment for a burner which was satisfactory on manufactured ga3"~~ may not prove to be equally satisfactory on natural gas. On most types.;of . domestic appliances the same Btu inputs result in a larger flame volume, /and in some instances this may limit the entry of secondary air and also create 12-8

insufficient space between the burner head and the utensil or the surface being heated. In such circumstances it was necessary to alter the relative burner- location by raising the hob trivets on a stove, lowering, the burner, or in­ creasing the clearances for secondary-air entry. On a stove of rigid design, with most surfaces vitreous-enamelled, this presented major problems. .

The ovens of some gas stoves proved troublesome, as vitiation can easily occur in such an enclosed space. Most domestic gas stoves have bottom flue outlets located at a level only a little above the burner. This, together with the limited convection circulation, until the oven warms up, can cause inter- Terence with the combustion at the burner. It will be seen that relatively small levels of vitiation cause major changes in flame characteristics. For example:-

(a) At 1$ vitiation, flame speed is reduced by 38$ compared with speed in normal air, and the flammability*limits are reduced to 5 - 12$ compared with 5 - 15$ in. normal air. (b) At 2$ vitiation, flame speed is reduced by 64$ and flammability limits to 6 - 9$. (c) At 1.5$ vitiation, the flame length is doubled and the flame is very close to lifting.

Considerable modification to oven design and burners has been necessary to ensure adequate air supply to the buriB r and to eliminate interference by products of combustion.

In the case of certain water heaters which were designed to operate at high efficiencies with small combustion chambers burning approximately 100,000 Btu/hr, the limited available space made conversion procedures' difficult. Fortunately, in most cases the manufactured-gas burnersv were of the non-aerated type> which permitted an aerated natural-gas burner to be substituted, and enabled combustion then to be completed with two stages mixing in the same space.

Considerable research was carried out for several years prior to the introduction of natural .gas, the main burden of this work being borne by the laboratories of the Gas and Fuel Corporation, Melbourne. Although techniques were established for most types of appliances prior to natural gas being intro­ duced, it was found that in practice in the field these procedures did not always repeat the laboratories' results. In many instances this has been found to be due to variations in the assembly of appliances on the manufacturer's production line, differing environmental condition of burners, and modifications to appliance models (usually for production convenience) which did not affect the performance on manufactured gas but could seriously vary the performance on natural gas.

Some of these difficulties were only found by experience in the field, and even then they frequently did not faithfully repeat themselves from appliance to appliance. Knowledge gained from the laboratory conversion designs and experience gained in the field have now enabled most of these difficulties to be satisfactorily overcome, but not without concentrated work which had to be carrieid out simultaneously with the large-scale field operation.

9- CONCLUSION

With the work of converting existing customers now close to completion, ••• the gas industry will soon be able to concentrate its efforts on the development 12-9

of new markets. The industries already converted from manufactured gas or from alternative fuels have provided sufficient experience in the past year to indicate the capabilities of natural gas to meet industry requirements, particularly in the current changing circumstances.

Entry has already been made by natural gas into the new fields of fuel for prime-mover operation, power generation, and air conditioning, in addition to the traditional markets for manufactured gas. Domestic sales generally should be encouraged by lower tariffs, but the greatest increase in gas usage will be for home heating. Australians are now looking to greater comfort and convenience in their homes. This requires increased quantities of hot water, which gas is particularly suited to supply, and automatic central heating for 'those months of the year when temperatures fall below the comfort level.

The economics of long-distance pipelining require large volume sales and good load factors. This is the task which the gas industry has set itself. It is, however, not likely that natural gas will make serious inroads into the total volume of business of other fuels. The^market for fuel in Australia is expanding rapidly, and when we examine the currently known available resources of natural gas and the- fact that markets must be limited to areas adjacent to the trunk pipelines, it becomes clear that natural gas is likely to have the effect of limiting growth of competitive fuels for the immediate years ahead rather than in any way reducing their volume sales. Even so, this opens up for the natural-gas industry a relatively large market and one in 'which gas will probably obtain selective loads where its unique features are of particular advantage to the customer and where it can therefore command a premium price. PAPER 13

THE EFFECT OF BASS STRAIT CRUDE OIL ON AUSTRALIAN REFINERY TECHNOLOGY

By: A. C. NOMMENSEN*

SUMMARY

Oil refining has historically been a service industry subject to major, and often international, pressures for change.

The advent of Gippsland crude oil is one such major pressure. Changes in refinery location and distribution strategies, product qualities, and tech­ nology will be induced. These changes will be superimposed on other factors, including the growth of the market and developing hydrogen processing technologies.

The paper attempts to predict the number, size, and location of new refining developments, and the effect of Gippsland crude oil on products and technology. An industry investment of $250 million by 1975 has been forecast, including $40 million for the processing of Gippsland crude in existing refineries.

1. INTRODUCTION

By 19'~1 more than 7Q$ of Australia's crude oil demands will be supplied from indigenous sources.. .These- yield a markedly different crude oil from the traditional imported supplies on which the industry has been based. The extent and rapidity of the changeover will dramatically affect the industry, and indeed, the whole Australian economy, in the next five years. The new crude-oil -sources will affect the economic balances of refinery location, and the actual refinery • processes and products. As the changes will be superimposed on a market growing at the rate of 8% yearly, and on developing technology, they should be reviewed within the overall context of industry growth. This paper therefore examines

* Manager, Operations Research, Ampol Petroleum Limited. 13-2 future industry developments (in Section 2), the Gippsland processing problems (Section 3). and the "ideal" Australian refinery of the future (Section U).»

2. FGTURE INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS

There are now ten oil refineries in Australia. Since the first two were constructed capacity has been increased by adding four refineries about every 10 years. If this trend continues, a net increase +o 13 refineries can be expected by 1974-.

Existing refineries are of some 60,000 barrels per day (BPD) capacity, i.e. 2.7 million tons/year: the optimum size for maximum plant efficiency is probably nearer 160,000 BPD in single-train refining units. Considered only on this basis of plant-scale economics, the average Australian refinery in the future could still be of sub-economic size. As distribution costs are such a high proportion of the total, however, we must consider the total system cost, from the bore to the point of supply to the consumer. To determine whether these cost trends will change as the market density increases with time, and indigenous crude, oil is supplied, we shall examine some factors relevant to past development of the refining industry in Australia.

2.1. Past Development Factors

Political instability in the Suez Canal zone started the trend towards giant crude-oil tankers with lower per mile transport costs for crude oil compared with products. Maritime labour costs and improved shipbuilding techniques accelerated the trend. The economic balance of distribution costs therefore moved heavily towards local refinery centres located close to the centre of demand for finished products. This world-wide trend continues to' escalate as crude-oil tanker sizes climb towards the megaton range.

The refinery industry in this country has tended to polarize - with Indo­ nesian crudes coming mainly to the north and east of Australia and Persian Gulf crudes to the south and west. These tendencies wili in future be of limited significance, however, owing to the relatively short hauls from the new crude-oil fields to. population centres. Australian ports lack the depth of water needed to support 300,000-ton vessels directly, and the short hauls prevent a depot or high-seas transfer system from being economic. Tankers will be limited here by port depths, to an average capacity of about 80,000 tons for the flexible delivery of indigenous crude oils. As the size of finished-product tankers can range up to 55,000 tons on a few long coastal routes, the differential between crude-oil and product delivery costs from the Gippsland area is no longer large. This factor will encourage (or, more exactly, not discourage) centralized refining near the major crude-oil source, and near the major population centres. Combin­ ation pipeline -. and product tanker distribution could be used to supply minor coastal markets.

Freight costs, and the size of refineries compared with their relative operating costs, on the Australian scene, are illustrated in Fig. 1, which shows, for example, that Newcastle can "be supplied with product either from a 60,000- BPD refinery in Melbourne by ship or directly from a 50,000-BPD refinery located in Newcastle. For these reasons the prospects of the construction of an oil refinery in Newcastle, much studied by: oil companies in the mid 1960's, are now rapidly fading.

Inland and remote areas, e.g. Alice Springs, Roma, and Port Hedland, having both local crude oil supplies and a local market, get a doubled freight protection, 1J5-J5 and for such areas small special-purpose refineries may be economic.

The vigorous competition which exists between the oil companies limits tl e degree of co-operation possible on the manufacturing side and has contributed to the present situation where two or three sub-optimum sized refineries occupy sites in close proximity.

2.2. Future Trends

The number of new general-purpose refineries is unlikely to exceed three by 1975. They will be larger than those constructed to date. Secondary coastal markets will be supplied by pipeline or ship rather than from additional refineries. Small special-purpose plants (perhaps t-wo) may be constructed near inland crude- oil sources having a local market area: the investment required for this new construction could be near $210 million.

The new general-purpose refineries, possibly under multiple ownerships, will be located in close proximity to existing refineries, thus further en­ couraging the shared use of such facilities as moorings, jetties, and terminals. Such a tightly-knit industrial area will be better able to organize joint facilities for the control of pollution (in particular, effluent water-treatment systems). A further point is that the Australian refining centres are either already supplied, or will potentially be supplied, with natural gas. As the indigenous crudes contain more gas and L.P.G. than the traditional crudes, it will no longer be possible to dispose of the total output of these products by the conventional means, as gas sales. A trend to the use of total-energy systems could emerge from this. Generation of steam and power could be on a utility basis for the surrounding refining and industrial centre, using natural-gas fuels and thereby liberating the chemically more complex refinery streams for catalytic conversion into valuable products.

3. GIPPSIAND PROCESSING PROBLEMS

The coming changes within the oil industry, while significantly affecting the nature of the future refinery investment, will be overshadowed by changes arising from the processing of Gippsland crude oil.

3-1. Chemical Composition of Gippsland Crude Oil

This is a'light crude of low sulphur content. It contains mainly fractions suitable for the production of gasoline, jet fuels, and diesel oils and is there­ fore tailor-made for Australia with its high car-owning population. The fuel-oil yield is lower than with imported crudes, but owing to the advent of natural-gas fuels this factor is of little significance on a long-range basis. Most Australian refineries have been designed for processing the heavier Middle-East crudes, which have a high sulphur content. Fig. 2 gives a comparison of the product yields from Gippsland and from imported crude oils*.

3.2. Refining Characteristics

A process plan for the average Australian refinery is presented in Fig. 3 and Table 1.

The fractions must be separated, by fractional distillation in the "crude" unit before they can be further treated. All fractions except the .bottoms must be vaporized in this distillation process. It is obvious from Fig. 2 that with 13-4

Gippsland crude far larger heat inputs will be required for this vaporization step: the net difference, after heat recovery, amounts to some 50 million Btu/hr in the average Australian refinery, an increase of 25$. Thus the average- sized refinery would be reduced from 60,000 BPD capacity to 4-8,000 BPD because of the change in raw material. As distillation unit re-vamp costs run close to $100 per barrel of daily capacity this change represents an investment, in crude distillation equipment alone, of $12 million by ten refineries. This gross picture is, however, a little oversimplified. The same capacity, when using indigenous crude, yields a higher percentage of the products for which there is an Australian demand. After taking this factor into account, the net in­ vestment which will be involved in getting distillation capacity into line with the new requirements will be nearer $7 million.

3-3. Treatment

Gippsland crude-oil fractions pose some difficult treatment problems. The most important fraction distilled from crude oil is naphtha, or petroleum spirit, which boils between 100 and 400°F and consists of hydrocarbons with five to ten carbon atoms. This is a petrol base and, untreated, is unsuitable for the modern motor-car because it has an octane number of only 55 compared with the 98 octane requirements of new vehicles. This octane rating must be raised by cyclizing paraffins and naphthenic hydrocarbons into aromatic rings, by hydrogen processing in platinum catalytic reformers.

3.3.1• Octane Improvement.- In this process, naphtha in vapour form, and mixed with a large excess of hydrogen gas, is passed at high pressure and tem­ perature over a catalyst containing finely divided, platinum. The naphthenes and some paraffins are dehydrogenated or cyclized to aromatics. Hydrogen is produced as a by-product and is passed to other hydrogen processing systems, e.g. the naphtha feed pretreatment process using hydrogen and a cobalt-molybdenum catalyst. The pretreatment also saturates olefins and increases the yield potential of the feedstock in the downstream catalytic reformer. Naphtha from indigenous crudes has excellent reforming qualities owing to the high percentage of naphthenic hydrocarbons present. Again the problem is one of refinery capacity, because of the very high naphtha yields.

Our average refinery (Table 1) currently has approximately "12,000 BPD of catalytic reforming capacity. To process indigenous crude, this should be raised to nearer 18,000 BPD. We are not talking about a cheap unit here. At re-vamp costs for catalytic reforming and associated hydrogen pretreatment plants having about $500 per barrel of daily capacity, this represents an investment of $30 million. Again we must allow for the increased gasoline production capacity effect. The expenditure attributable only to Gippsland processing becomes .$18 million for reforming.

Increasing the octane value of the higher percentages of Gippsland naphtha has a chain reaction on downstream processes: isobutane and pentanes are produced as by-products, in addition to the hydrogen. The recovery of these compounds for use in gasoline requires added investment in alkylation plants arid isomerization plants. Alkylation uses hydrofluoric acid or sulphuric acid .catalysts to convert isopentane and olefin gases to iso-octane, of 100 octane value;

Isomerization is, again, a hydrogen process using platinum catalysts at lower temperatures and pressures than reforming. Pentane isomerizes to the higher octane iso-pentane blend component for gasoline. An increased investment' allowance on these units of $6 million by the industry is warranted by Gippsland processing factors alone. u-5

3.3.2. Kerosines.- The high yield of kerosine-range material from Gippsland crude suits the growing jet fuel market. Hydrogen processing using cobalt-molybdenum catalysts is useful for removing sulphur compounds to the 10-p.p.m. level required by jet fuel. It also saturates olefinic molecules, and this benefits the burning quality of the fuel in a jet engine. The average refinery is, however, fairly well provided with equipment for hydrogen processing in this range, equipment which is used also for removing the heavy sulphur content of imported crudes.

One kerosine-range product which is going to suffer badly from the introduction of Gippsland crudes is the water-white lighting kerosine, or home kerosine. The market is a small one, yet the cost of treatment of the Gippsland fraction is high. Aromatics and olefins must be removed to give good burning quality and colour, and only one of the 10 Australian refineries (an Edeleanu SO2 extraction unit) is currently well equipped for doing this. The problem is still the subject of active research by the industry. It would be within bounds, however, to allow $2 million industry investment to cover this problem.

3.3-3. Bottoms.- The bottom product from the Gippsland crude poses the greatest treatment difficulty. Refiners normally use this stream in three ways - as fuel oil, as asphalt and lube feedstock, and as a feed to catalytic cracking plants for gasoline production.

Part of the bottoms product from imported fuel is used directly as fuel oil. The material from Gippsland crude contains a high percentage of paraffin wax, and consequently is solid at temperatures below 110°F. It is therefore difficult to use in fuel, because under Australian climatic conditions fuel oil is normally required to remain fluid at temperatures above 45°F.

Under high vacuum, much of the wax can be separated by distillation, giving a waxy gas oil product and a residuum. The low residuum yield from Gippsland crude makes it quite difficult to keep these vacuum units operating properly. The longer residence times and low residuum recirculation will tend, to encourage coking, and change the yield and heat-duty patterns. With Gippsland crude the heavy residual material remaining after this separation step will still contain large quantities of-wax, which cannot be removed by traditional methods such as coking, and vis-breaking or thermal units. Propane solvent dewaxing is effective but too costly.

It is therefore certain that the market will be faced with changes in fuel oil quality* The changes may require altered burners in customers1 furnaces, and the provision of more heating in their storage tanks. On'the other hand, the consumer will be. compensated by the relatively low sulphur content of some fuel oil grades.

Owing to the high wax content, Gippsland residues are unsuitable for the manufacture of asphalts and probably also as a base for lubricating.oils. There­ fore, even if Australian crude oil production rises above our total crude oil requirement (460,000 BPD), Middle East crude oils will still have to be imported for the manufactureof these two essential products.

3.3*A' Cracking.- The paraffin waxes, separated by vacuum distillation- from Gippsland crude oil bottoms, are, as in the case of imported crudes, excellent feedstocks-for both catalytic cracking and hydrogen cracking processes. These '• units decompose the large wax molecules into smaller, complex molecules involving the-whole spectrum of hydrocarbon chemistry. 13-6

In catalytic cracking, this effect is produced by heating the heavy wax fractions in the presence of aluminium silicate catalysts to about 1000°F. The coke deposited on the catalyst in this process is burnt from the recirculated catalyst in a separate reactor, to provide the heat input to the unit and to regenerate the catalyst.

In hydrogen cracking, large over-pressures of hydrogen gas are used to suppress this coke-formation process. The yield of product is therefore con­ siderably higher, and of higher quality. The process is also, of course, much more expensive than catalytic cracking owing to the extremely high pressures (over 2,000 lb/sq.in.(gauge)) and high temperatures encountered in very large reactor vessels.

Complex hydrocarbon mixtures from the cracking processes must be separated by fractional distillation into gasoline and diesel blending components, and some of these streams require further treatment. Our average refinery is, however, fairly well equipped in this respect and no additional investment allowance need be made for treating Gippsland crude.

3.3.5. Tankage.- From the refinery investment point of view there is one further problem to be considered. Almost half the capital expenditure in a refinery is associated with off-site facilities (tanks, wharves, etc.). Processing two grades of crude normally requires more tankage for their segregation, and additional processes increase the storage-tank requirements - but this would be a marginal effect only, and would not-account for 100$ of plant investment. However, remembering that one crude-oil tank costs $0.5 million, it is not difficult to predict the need for an increased tankage investment of at least $7 million for the industry.

3.4. SUMMING UP

To summarize, the problem of treating Gippsland crude will call for an investment of $4-0 million, an increase in the complexity of existing refineries, and, possibly, changes in the qualities of lighting kerosine and fuel oil.

U. THE FUTURE "IDEAL" REFINERY

The timing of these changes is the most critical problem facing the refining industry. From the start of a feasibility study through the stages of approval, design, and construction, a substantial new project takes over three years to bring to.completion. Furthermore, in a situation where the output of indigenous crude rises from 10% to 70% in a period of 6 months, and must be merged with normal capacity-increases for the market, timing problems must become acute.

Three solutions are being tried by the industry. One is to design the additional capacity needed to meet normal market growth in such a -way that it compensates for bottlenecks caused by indigenous crude processing; however, this otherwise highly effective method is not fast enough. The second solution is to run. indigenous crude and selected, heavy, imported crudes together, thus complementing their characteristics and removing some bottlenecks. This course has the disadvantage that, from a long-term economic view, we must debase the low sulphurs by admixture with high sulphur crudes. Sulphur treating costs are therefore much higher than they would be. for segregated crude oils. The third solution is rapid rebuilding of major refinery units to take care of Gippsland requirements. Allthree solutions are being applied in the industry. • s— I

As already stated, the indigenous crude oils, with natural gas, fit the overall Australian market in an ideal way in the long term. Given that these initial "crash" solutions are handled in a rather arbitrary fashion, we may now examine how future developments, with time and adequate foreknowledge, can be better matched to give economies.

4-1 • Specialization of Plant

It would be an advantage to process the low sulphur crude oils (Gippsland and Indonesian) in refineries specially designed for low sulphur operations, because in this way the sulphur treatment costs (and these are heavy) could be avoided. The high sulphur crude oils, which will always be needed for the balance and for production of asphalt and lubricating oils, should be run in specially equipped refineries which would avoid the wax debits associated with the first type.

4-2. Specialization of Location :

Refinery economies would be further improved if the refineries near Gippsland processed the low sulphur types of crude and those in the west and north of Australia treated "She high sulphur imported types. In this way great savings in crude-oil transportation costs would be achieved. It is not too early to apply short-term measures leading to this ultimate goal. Where a company has access to more than one refinery, backloading of intermediate, untreated material should be made to the most suitable refinery.

4.3. New Technology

. In Section 3 of this paper, frequent mention is made of hydrogen processing: this is used in seven different types of refining plants, namely isomerization, feed treatment, reforming, hydro-desulphurization, hydro-cracking, hydro- dealkylation, and recycle hydro-treatment of catalytic cracker feeds.

(Hydrocracker installed capacity is now 4-00,000 BPD in the State of California alone - almost Australia's total crude throughput.,)

The cost of operating these processes is much reduced where low-cost hydrogen supplies (as a by-product from ethylene petrochemicals) are available, and the prospect of cheaper hydrogen from these sources isimpraving—in-Austraira".

It is now. both theoretically and practically possible to feed Gippsland crude oils directly to a single hydrocracking unit whera under specially controlled conditions, all seven hydrogen processing reactions can occur; and it may even be possible to withdraw lubricating oils from the recycle stream. The several products coming from this single unit would be passed directly to finished product storage.

With hydrogen supplies purchased from a nearby ethylene plant, this processing route would seem to constitute the ideal refinery of the future. It would have the advantage that increases in capacity could be made in small, discrete steps by simply adding to the number of units used.

This approach, withan associated hydrogen unit, will almost certainly be used for small special-purpose refineries at remote locations, but not for large general-purpose refineries; It would not permitjspecialization within"the refinery units in a large plant, nor would the maximum advantage be obtained from a given amount of capital. . - 13-8

It is therefore likely that, compared with present-day refineries, our average general-purpose refinery of the future will incorporate a higher per­ centage of hydrogen processes used in cracking. It will not exclude, however, the major advantages of other specialized processes in their specific fields.

5. CONCLUSION

From the foregoing review of the situation, the following overall forecast may be made of the effects of Gippsland processing on Australian oil refining to 1975.

(I) - Construction may be expected of three new general-purpose refineries by 1975. These may average 60,000 BPD in initial size, and may have multiple ownership. Location near existing refining centres could allow more interaction with surrounding industrial complexes. Product qualities will alter.

(II) Small special-purpose plants (possibly two) may be built in remote regions having crude-oil supplies. These plants are likely to use the single-train hydrocracking technology.

(Ill)If these predictions prove correct, the long-term total of induced investment in new and existing refineries may approach $250 million. Of this total, $40 million would be directly, attributable to processing of Gippsland crudes within existing refineries over the five years from 1969.

(iV)The industry must find this money, but It will be up to the tech­ nologists to ensure that it is wisely spent."

TABLE .1. AUSTRALIAN AVERAGE REFINERY: CONFIGURATION, 1969

PROCESS TYPE FIG. 3 i Capacity (bbl/day) CRUDE OIL DISTILLATION 1 62;500 CATALYTIC CRACKING 2 15,500 HYDROGEN CRACKING 3 420 PLATINUM CATALYTIC REFORMING U 12,330 ALKYLATI0N PROCESSES 5 1,200 POLYMERIZATION PROCESSES 6 620 VACUUM DISTILLATION 7 24,850 PROPANE SOLVENT DEWAXING 8 2;250 THERMAL COKING PROCESSES 9 0 ASPHALT MANUFACTURING 10 900 VIS-BREAKING PROCESSES 11 0 HYDRO DESULPHURIZATION 12 18;030 ISOMERIZATI0N 13 0 RECYCLE HYDROTREATING U 0 Fiq. 1. - Refining costs relative to 16,000 BPD

J i i i I • i i » I I 50,000 100,000 Size barrels/day Transport costs

500 1000 Miles

— -Gas— -

Naphtha Naphtha Naphtha

Diesel Diesel _Kerp£in^e3 Diesel

Bottoms Bottoms Bottoms

Gippslqnd Persian Gulf Indonesian rig. £, - uruae on yieias Gas Hydro Platinum - Gas Isomer L.RG. treatei reformer plant unit J , t. Gasolines Jet fue i i • . hydro Kerosine treate u 1—t- if- & jet fuel

Diesel Oils i Hydro i i cracker i i *--«-+•»------j Recycle hydro 14 --W treated i r; 1--. Vacuum 11 unit Vis- 7 breaker Fuel

i Oils Asphalts Coke

Hydrogen processes

Fig. 3. - Refinery process plan (For key see Table 1 ) 14.-1

PAPER 14

PARAL1C COAL SEAM FORMATION

By: CLAUS F. K. DIESSEL*

SUMMARY

Over 90$ of all coals have been formed in environments which, because . of their hydrological- connection with the sea, are called "paralic". Two geo- • tectonic settings of such coalfields can be distinguished, namely in fore-deeps and on the shelf marginally to cratons. The chief difference between the two is the quantity and variability of sediment supply, resulting in contrasting coal measure characteristics.

The geological parameters of coal seam formation are outlined, and the influence on the latter of the interrelation between organic or inorganic sediment supply and absolute or relative subsidence is discussed. Base level variations in the centimetre, decimetre, and metre ranges have a profound influence upon coal composition, seam splitting, and inter-seam sediments.

. It is assumed that coal is produced in times of both transgression and regression. In the first case it is assumed that the clastic sediment supply is so small that peat accretion is almost the only form of sedimentation in a coastal swamp belt. Under conditions of regression caused by an influx .of clastic detritus into a slowly sinking basin, peat formation is still possible on a subsiding underground when the majority of the inorganic sediments is channelled through the coastal swamp and deposited off-shore.

1. INTRODUCTION

The coal resources of Australia are among the main interests of the present Conference, and it is therefore appropriate in this paper to discuss our under-- standing of the formation of coal seams and to describe various new conclusions

* Senior Lecturer in Geology, University of Newcastle, New South' Wales. 14-2 about the formation of autochthonous (i.e. indigenous) seams. The discussion is limited to paralic environments (transitional between marine and fresh­ water) since they have produced most major coalfields. Limnic (remote from the sea) coals .have been treated elsewhere.' Only the immediate process-response relation is here considered.

2. GEOLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF COAL FORMATION

The formation of coal and other fossil fuels^ interrupts for some considerable time the cyclic process of removing carbon from the atmosphere by photosynthesis and replenishing it from decaying vegetable matter. Plants extract annually 13,000 to 20,000 million tons of carbon from atmospheric carbon- dioxide, ^ and present atmospheric carbon would be exhausted in 150-200 years if all the carbon were to be converted to peat, coal, oil, and natural gas. The formation of fossil fuel deposits was the result of a delicate interplay of parameters which can be grouped into several categories.

2.1. The Vegetable Source

Plants are the prerequisite for coal. An advanced evolutionary stage had to be attained before plants could establish environments likely to offer the other conditions necessary for the development of large coalfields. The possibilities for extensive coal formation emerged with the advent of psilophytae during the Silurian. These ancestors of ferns with their primitive vascular strands were equipped for swampy environments and had been the source of some Devonian coal deposits. Since then an ever-increasing number of plant types have produced coal whenever the other necessary conditions were established.

Any detailed consideration of the nature of coal must consider (i) those plants which are best equipped to become coalified and (ii) the plant con­ stituents that contribute differentially to the composition of coal.

2.2. Plant Nutrition

Prolific plant growth requires considerable quantities of mineral salts as plant nutrients. The basal soils of low moors normally contain a greater variety of plant nutrients than those of high moors, and thereby permit a richer and more diverse vegetation. If the groundwater table were not to rise at the rate at which the peat layer grows in thickness, peat accretion might terminate. In humid and per-humid climates, the low moor might then change into a high moor.in which peat continues to form. A high moor is characterized by a few hardy plant species only, with mosses like sphagnum prominent in cool climates, although in tropical and sub-tropical regions even the high moor might support arboraceous vegetation.3 The resulting peat is very acid and, like the corresponding deposits of cooler regions, is low in ash. M. Teichmuller^ has emphasized this possible explanation of the origin of some extremely low-ash coals. High moor peats are not thought to have been a major source of coal deposits, although many,present-day peats of low moor character contain occasional intercalations of high moor peat.

2.3. Climate

Plant growth, and thus the formation of peat and coal, depend on the availability of liquid water. Within the limits set by evolution, the variety and quantity of flora are regulated by temperature and precipitation. Temperature governs also the•• rate, of: water evaporation. Cold (but not frigid) environments, and medium to low annual rainfall can provide more surface water than may be the case in warm regions of equal annual precipitation. Warm arid ^U-3 zones are unsuitable as coal-forming environments. At present this is shown by the paucity of peat deposits between the 15° and 35° latitudes. Despite its shortcomings, the comparison made in Fig. 1 between the palaeo-latitudes of coalfields and the recent meteorological situation suggests similar geo­ graphical distribution of fossil and present peat deposits.

Coal forms where the rate of accumulation of vegetation exceeds that of its removal by decay.5 As shown in Fig. 1, most Carboniferous coals appear to have been derived from tropical vegetation whereas in Permian and later times coal formation seems to have shifted from low to high latitudes. Most Aus­ tralian coal deposits have been formed under cool to temperate conditions (see the palaeo-latitudes of Fig. 2). Such palaeo-latitudes refer to the magnetic poles and do not necessarily coincide with the geographical latitudes which determine the climatic latitude effect. However, other palaeo-climatic indications, such as the Permian glaciation, the occurrence of strong annual rings in Permian and later trees, etc., suggest that the Australian climate at the period of coal formation was neither tropical nor sub-tropical. Plumstead" envisaged a cool climate for the formation of South Africa's coal.

The transition from tropical to temperate conditions is well established for the Tertiary coal formation of Europe.

3. POSITION OF GROUNDWATER TABLE

The groundwater level affects both the biological environment in which plants grow and the bipchemical facies in which dead vegetable matter accumu­ lates. Large present-day swamps house environments ranging from open water to almost dry land. Few plant types can exist in all these environments. Swamp flora tend to segregate into distinct plant associations relative to the position of the water level, and in Table 1 some coal-forming plants of the past are listed with respect to their ecological setting in the four main moor faeies.

The position of the groundwater table influences also the mode of de­ composition of vegetable matter, which may range from putrefaction to mouldering; the bulk of the plant debris was peatified.^

During this biochemical stage, both organic and inorganic chemical processes affect the conversion of plant debris into peat. Initially, fungi, actinomyces, and aerobic bacteria contribute a great deal to the decomposition of the source material. As overburden and compaction increase, however, the rising water table makes it difficult for aerobic organisms to persist. With a complete absence of atmospheric.oxygen, biochemical coalification is' characterized by the action of anaerobic bacteria which extract and utilize oxygen from organic molecules„^ Through variations in the water table relative to the peat surface, vegetable matter may be deposited initially either under anaerobic conditions or in a relatively aerobic (oxidizing) environment which in the course of diagenesis changes to anaerobic (reducing) condition. Such biochemical conditions are directly responsible for the development of differing components of coal.

U. ABSOLUTE OR RELATIVE SYN-DEPOSITIONAL SUBSIDENCE

Large quantities'of peat can be formed only when the groundwater table is maintained at a continuously high level. This can be brought about either by active subsidence or by an actively rising water level. Both tectonic (i.e. due to earth movements involved in folding and faulting) and non-tectonic conditions can lead to subsidence at approximately the same rate as the peat UT4 accumulates. Leaching or migration of underlying salt deposits'? have been non-tectonic sources of subsidence.

For peat accretion to occur, the basement of the developing coal seams need not subside. An eustatic sea level change (i.e. due to formation or melting of ice-caps), or, in inland areas not hydrologically connected to the sea, the damming of a valley may have the same effect. The changes in the water level caused by absolute or relative subsidence are here considered at three, levels of magnitude.

5. VARIATIONS IN THE CENTIMETRE RANGE

Fluctuations in the water table in the centimetre range neither initiate nor terminate.pg'at accretion. They have, however, a marked influence on moor facies which is expressed in the stratification of coal. Lithotypes are thus related broadly to the former position of the groundwater table in the following way10-12.

Low water level Fibrous coal (fusain), some dull coal (relatively dry peat) (durain), bright coal (vitrain). Fluctuating water levels Banded bright coal (clarain), banded coal (duroclarain), banded dull coal (claro- durain) Most dull coal (durain), sapropelic coals (cannel and boghead, torbanite). High water level (complete submergence o£ deposit) Carbonaceous sediments.

Lithotype seam sections therefore not only indicate coal qualities and aid seam correlation but also throw some light upon the nature and frequency of . small changes in the position of the water table during peat accumulation (see Fig. 3).

Since the physical properties of lithotypes are related to the type and relative abundance of microcomponents,'3 the latter reflect with even greater sensitivity variation in the moor facies. The environmental significance of various associations of micro components has been much discussed.4,14-26

The composition of coal is related to the four main facies types of peat bog3 (Table 1).as follows:Fusite, whether formed by fungal attack or from fossil charcoal, originated under largely aerobic conditions in relatively dry parts of the swamp. Other microlithotypes rich in inertinite macerals, such as some durites and microite, also formed in low water conditions since oxidation seems to have; been an important factor in their mode of formation. , Telinite, which is remnant humic tissue in vitrite and clarite low in sporinite, derives from a moor facies between relatively dry conditions and the telematic zone. The ground was wet and subjected to flooding. Peat is permanently covered with water in limnotelmatic zones, which today contain reeds and swamp cypresses (Taxodium distichum) in sub-tropical climates. As long as such facies prevail, plant debris is deposited below water level. Such limnotelmatic zones, and also lakes within the swamp, are supplied with additional vegetable matter that has been produced, even partially peatified,- on higher and drier places. Clarite, which is rich in sporinite, cutinite, and colinite,. referred, to this facies, which is also characterized by duroclarite and clarodurite. With increasing water depth the vitrinite content decreases, and <*¥-? intermediates are replaced by durites, possibly rich in sporinite and a detrital inertinite (inertodetrinite)?' The size of the detritus decreases and micro-lamination increases, although macroscopically a massive appearance might dominate as in sapropelic coals (derived from decaying organic matter of a muddy bottom), which represent the end member of the trend.

Typical maceral and microlithotype associations in Canadian seams'^- for each of the moor facies (Table 1) are distinguished by three geographical environments of paralic coal formation: (a) the piedmont environment, bordering a tectonically active hinterland; (b) the flood-plain environment, being the broad inland alluvial plain; and (c) the lagoonal environment, which is separated from the sea by sand bars (the description given by the authors * would suggest that the latter environment would also be met with in deltaic settings such as back swamps).

' Environments (a) and (b) are characteristic of molasse deposits and would be found in fore-deeps, plus the addition of (c) in times of marine transgression. The cratonic shelf, on the other hand, usually does not have a tectonically active hinterland, so that the occurrence of a piedmont en­ vironment in this setting would be exceptional, and only (b) and (c) would be common.

6. VARIATIONS IN THE DECIMETRE RANGE

During periods characterized by a falling water table much of the peat surface dries out and is subjected to aerobic decay if not quickly covered by sediments; whereas a rising water table may impede peat accumulation and cause lateral migration of the various moor facies. In drowned low-lying parts of the swamp, inorganic detritus may be deposited on top of the seam.

Seam splitting is initiated within the decimetre range and may occur either in the direction of palaeoslope or opposite to it. The first type of seam splitting appears to be due to an increase in subsidence towards a depositional centre of the basin. The axis of splitting marks therefore a boundary between areas of different rates of subsidence. Often a pronounced influence on the inter-seam sediments is recognizable, e.g. Branagan and Johnson2° noticed that conglomerates overlying coal seams in the Newcastle Coal Measures are situated in general either along or immediately adjacent to the axes of major seam splitting (see Fig. /+).

Occasionally, seam splitting is genetically connected with a small cycle of -transgression - immersion - regression that halts- laterally at the axis of splitting. If the basin contains a tectonic hingeline, axes of seam splitting are usually situated within its region of influence.- ."v:m:l-ir results can come from an uneven increase of the rate of subsidence caused by non-tectonic events, such as differential compaction of sediments underlying peat layers. Elliott2*? considered that differential compaction influences seam splitting, since the rate of thickening of inter-split sediments away from the axis of splitting is proportional to the thickness of coal in the lower split. Seams that split opposite to the direction of regional dip may not be related to basin geometry but to clastic wedges which were occasionally pushed over the swamp margins, causing the coal seams to interfinger with inorganic sediments.

7. VARIATIONS IN THE METRE RANGE Variations in the metre range influence the formation or otherwise'of a whole coal seam. The transgression and regression models of Figs. 5. and 6 are related to this range.' U-6 According to Sloss,^ the formation of a sedimentary deposit depends on:- (a) the quantity (Q) of detritus delivered to the basin per unit time; (b) the receptor value (R), i.e. the rate of subsidence expressed in terms of available volume created per unit time below base level; (c) the material. (M), its texture and composition, supplied to the depositional site; and (d) the dispersal (D), i.e. a measure of the rate at which sediments which cannot be accommodated below base level are effectively removed from the depositional site.

During filling of a large marine basin, the base level may be assumed to approximate to sea level. In the special case of coal formation, however, the groundwater table can be regarded as base level. Because paralic en­ vironments are hydrologically open to the sea these definitions, do not differ seriously. Former base levels are often preserved in clastic sediments as erosion surfaces and stratification planes. In coal seams, the surfaces separating different lithotypes can occasionally indicate ancient base levels.

Sloss regarded M as constant for various clastic transgression - regression cycles, because the texture and composition of the debris supplied to the basin. did not change much. In the present context such simplification is possible when only the inter-seam sediments are considered. Since the study of the formation of coal seams is a particular aim of this paper, the quantity of clastic detritus (Qcd) delivered to the basin per unit time is distinguished from the quantity of plant debris (Qpd.) deposited per unit time in the basin. If climatic arid other factors permit a high production.rate of plant debris, both the beginning and end of peat accumulation depend largely on variations in the receptor value, on the quantity of clastic detritus supplied, and (occasionally) on the dispersal of the latter. During peat accretion, the water table is assumed to rise at the same rate as plant debris accumulates, thereby creating the space in which peat could form without killing the plants living on the top of the deposit. At the expense of some considerable simpli­ fication,. the causes for paralic coal seam formation can then be reduced to two basic models which may be formulated as

Qcd + Qpd R

Qcd Qpd > • 0?

and Qed R,

(Qcd - D) + Qpd = R , Qcd -D V > • (2) The main difference between the two models rests with the value of Qcd. In (1), Qcd is assumed to be extremely small, either because of a low relief in the hinterland (e.g. in a cratonic shelf region) or because most clastic sediments are trapped in a rapidly subsiding zone between-the orogenic source area and a coastal swamp belt without reaching the latter, e.g. the- Hercynian (Variscan) fore-deep of Westfalis.37" This 'situation conforms to Pettijohn's clastic wedge model,31 but other reasons for the temporary decrease in inorganic sediment supply during the formation of the coal scam may be related to climatic changes, to the lateral migration of delta systems,32 0r to the episodic relaxation of deltaic processes.29 Sedimentary control, including compaction of substrata within a tectonic framework of general subsidence, and supplemented by eustatic and possibly edaphic (i.e. plant- influencing) factors, have ..been proposed33 as the main causes for the .cyclic nature of many paralic coal measures, The deppsitional cycles may be either symmetrical (A-B-C-D-C-B-A) or asymmetrical (A-B-C-D, A-B-G-D). If symmetrical, 14-7 the idealized cycle can be divided into a progressive hemicyclothem beginning with seat earth and ending with marine shale, and a regressive hemicy clot hem beginning with the same shale and grading into sandstone.34 Coal seams form within the progressive hemi cyclothems, and are therefore assumed to be formed during the transgression of the sea.

The model formulated in (1) fits this situation particularly well. During the transgressive stage, peat.deposition terminates on the seaward side earlier than landwards and the swamp belt is pushed inland in front of the transgressing sea over terrestrial deposits. The various stages of this process as they affect a particular part of the basin through which the swamp belt migrates are shown diagrammatically in Fig. 5. Before the onset of peat accretion /Fig. 5A) terrestrial sedimentation prevails in the form of fluvial, lacustrine, and possibly lagoonal deposits, and substantial quantities of sediments are subjected to further dispersal. Arboraceous and other vegetation and seat earths with rootlets may develop, but peat accretion is inhibited because of low water table causing removal of plant, debris by decay and erosion.

Whatever the cause of the transgression may be, it will "lead to alluviation upstream and consequently slower sedimentation in the area encroached' by the sea". Hence the conditions indicated in Fig. 5B can establish them­ selves. As the receptor value (R) exceeds both Qc(j and Qp£j, the moor facies moves farther inland, and peat accumulation ceases in the reference area by drowning. In many paralic coal measures of the Carboniferous System in the northern hemisphere this development is indicated by the occurrence of marine shales and limestones in the roof of coal seams. However, the occurrence or absence of marine sediments in the immediate roof of coal seams is often related to their palaeogeographical position. There.are likewise many examples where a seam was "drowned in lagoons, back-swamp lakes, and similar environments transitional between marine and freshwater conditions? indicating an encroachment of the sea farther away from the reference area (see below).

The conditions envisaged in (2) appear ,to be in conflict with the view­ point of many students of coal-measure sedimentation. In most studies of cyclothems authors regard the coal seams as being formed during the transgressive stages, and when terrestrial sediments (e.g. fluvial sandstones) have been recognized in the roof their occurrence is usually taken as evidence • for in­ complete cyclothems in which the immersion phase has been suppressed or bypassed for some reason. The possibility of coal formation occurring during marine regression is rarely considered in such cases. There are, however, present-day examples of regressive peat formation, such as the silted-up limonic Pleistocene lakes in central and northern Europe and the extensive paralic peat deposits of the Indonesian archipelago.35

In deltaic, fluvial, lacustrine, piedmont, and other domains sediments may have occurred for several non-tectonic reasons. In (2) it is therefore assumed that considerable quantities.of clastic detritus are supplied to the basin. However, owing to a low receptor value in the coal-forming environment and to subsidence (i.e. receptor value) increasing basinwards,, most clastic detritus is either diverted around the peat bog or channelled through the peat-producing areas by established rivers, and eventually deposited off­ shore to the marginal swamp belt. Such development implies coal formation during regression (shrinking basin); whereby the basinward deposition of clastic detritus prepares the ground for a centripetal migration of the swamps. This is possible because the sea regressed owing to Qc(i having a higher value than R. Qpd is not affected and has a similar value to R. - 't i;

Such conditions may occur in delta systems and estuaries where; peat is 14-8

produced in.slightly subsiding back-swamps. Sediments may be conveyed through the delta, thus pushing it farther into the basin and causing the sea to recede. Apart from'occasional flooding, which leads to high-ash coal and the formation of dirt bands, accumulation continues almost uninterruptedly until it is terminated by meandering of tributaries or by deflection of streams, overloaded with detritus, across the swamps when their old channels choke with sediment.

A similar situation develops in alluvial plains when rivers break their levee banks and flooding of adjacent swamps follows. The sedimentary response to such processes will then be (a) termination of the seam formation, and (b) the covering of the peat by deposits which may correspond to "lateral developing clastic successionn3o consisting of massive siltstones, complex silt-sandstones, and layered sand-siltstones. The initially rapid sedimentation is indicated not only by depositional structures but also by the occasional entombment of tree trunks in growth position as they occur in the roof sediments of some _ N.S.W. coal seams, and as they have been reported from European coalfields.37 Coarse, fluvial sandstones may likewise be expected to occur above coal seams formed according to (2). Such is the case for a number of so-called incompleted cyclothems of many coalfields, and in a study38 0f cyclic coal measure sedimentation in New South Wales was found to occur most frequently in the Southern Coalfield. Further evidence is provided by the occurrence of mud cracks in the roof of a coal seam, possibly formed in this way.39

The conditions before, during, and after coal formation are. showri'in Fig, 6, Before peat accretion the reference area is water-covered, as indicated in Fig 6A. Sediments deposited during this phase are, for instance, prodelta clay and silts. As sedimentation progresses across the reference area, peat accumulation commences in back-swamp and similar environments .(Fig. 6B). While slow subsidence continues, the supply of plant debris and its removal by aerobic decay balance until the advancing front of terrestrial sediments buries the peat (Fig. 5C). The fact that the conditions envisaged in Figs. 6A and 6C are identical is related to the assumed cyclic nature of many coal-measure sediments.

8. POST-DEPOSITIONAL SUBSIDENCE

The biochemical stage of coalification ends with the formation of soft brown coal, 40,45 which is the highest rank possible under near-surface con­ ditions. An increase in coal rank can be accomplished only if the seam is subjected to rising temperature. During these geochemical stages of coalification, initial chemical and physical differences between the various coal macerals are -•Increasingly levelled out.41 This process is related to condensation reactions in which the formation of macro-molecules is accompanied by the development of . gaseous products. Since high pressures reduce devolatilization, the main factor, in.the formation of high-rank coal is temperature.4^-45 From the quantitative link between temperature and the rate of coalification it follows that,, within known limits, a coal subjected to a low temperature of long duration can attain the same rank as one subjected to a high temperature over a shorter period of time.42

9. GEOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT

. It has long been customary to distinguish between limnic and paralic facies. Limnic environments have no connection to the open sea. and when fcydrologically closed they can develop at any altitude. Falini* has produced' several models dealing with limnic peat formation.

Paralic deposits contain usually marine intercalation within their U-9 stratigraphic column; their coal seams are associated with coastal formations, such as marshes, coastal plains, deltas, lagoons, and estuaries. The water level of such morphological units is hydrologically connected with the sea, and peat deposition may therefore be related to interference caused by tectonic subsidence, eustatic sea-level changes, subsidence caused by diagenetic com­ paction of subsurface-deposits, and various forms of sedimentary control, such as delta switching. Unlike limnic environments, where occasionally coal is the dominant lithological constituent within a relatively thin lacustrine rock sequence, the reverse situation is common in paralic domains. Here, although the amount of coal present is possibly large, the proportion is often small in relation to the inorganic sediments deposited. The following features are characteristic of paralic coal deposits;^ (a) great lateral extent of more or less uniformly thick seams; (b) occurrence of a large number of thin seams separated by clastic intervals of about constant thickness; (c) term­ ination of seams by splitting and digitation, rather than by "lithification"5 (d) petrographic variations in the seam profile; and (e) occurrence of marine sediments.

Features (a) to (d) are diagnostic, even if parts of the basin have not been affected by marine incursions.

10. " GE0TECT0NIC SETTING OF PARALIC COALFIELDS

10.1. Environmental Factors

Stutzer^o and Stille^''' were among the first to recognize clearly the genetic links between tectonism and the formation of coal. Stille, in particular, referred to the striking differences between basin fill, number of coal seams present, their average thickness, and proportion of total deposits of the Carboniferous and the Tertiary coals of Europe. He related such dissimilarities to contrasting degrees of crustal mobility. His results are summarized in Table 2. Even after differences in compaction ratios between the Tertiary lignites and Carboniferous hard coals and inter-seam sediments have been taken into account, the contrast is remarkable.

Later, the distribution of world reserves of coal was also related to the geotectonic setting of coalfields,& with 1\% of all coal deposits.known up to 1937 developed in geosynclinal environments, particularly in the fore-deeps of orogenic belts (Table 3). The concentration of coal in the regions associated with orogenic belts is highlighted even more when the lateral extent of the deposits is considered. Cratons and their marginal shelf areas cover more lateral space than fore- and intra-deeps, thereby suggesting that most of the coal has been formed in relatively narrow but highly mobile zones in.which the areal restriction was more than balanced by frequent temporal (i.e. vertical) repetition of coal formation during late and post-geosynclinal movements which have a strong vertical tendency.4-9

Von Bubnoff identified a close temporal relation between the occurrence of orogenies and coal formation, e.g. during the Carboniferous, Cretaceous, and Tertiary orogenies shaping North America most of,the coal deposits were formed; the bulk of European coal developed concurrently or subsequently to the Carboniferous and Tertiary orogenies.

In Australia, the majority of the Permian coals formed partly contempor­ aneously with or subsequently to the Hunter-Bowen Orogeny in Eastern: Australia. As this area consolidated during the Mesozoic coal formation decreased,&but a new peak was reached during the Tertiary in zones of tectonic subsidence U-10

(e.g. Gippsland), which are possibly related to a separation of Tasmania and Antarctica from the Australian continent.

There are many orogenies which were not associated with coal deposition. Invariably this deficiency was related to factors affecting the vegetable source. For instance, all pre-Upper Devonian orogenies occurred when the evolution of the plant kingdom was insufficient to permit an effective production of peat.

The less mobile continental shelf environments have produced less coal than the geosynclinal domain. In this context it is important to define the term "shelf". To the geographer the shelf region is usually that part of the sea which extends between the strand line and the continental slope. Here the definition of the shelf is extended to accommodate the time factor. Shelf regions are regarded as those marginal but fully integrated zones of continents which are occasionally affected by marine transgressions. Typical areas are the margins of so-called old shields and cratonic margins of fore-deeps. Stable and unstable shelf environments are distinguished^*5T Both may contain paralic coal deposits, e.g. the Moscow Basin (stable shelf) and the Interior Basins of U.S.A. (unstable shelf on the submerged southern margin of the Canadian Shield).

The fore-deep (exogeosyncline,52 marginal basin51) develops as a result of extra-cratonic tectonic events. It appears at the end of a geosynclinal cycle when the newly formed mountain belt undergoes vigorous uplift, and sedimentation changes from flysch to molasse (Fig. 7). The molasse frequently contains coal seams and many freshwater deposits forming clastic wedges^l>53 with their thickest portion close to the orogenic margin. These thick sections are characterized by abundant coarse elastics, and as the distance from the extra-cratonic source increased, the wedge not only thins but also the sand- shale ratio of its sediments decreases. The environment changes concurrently with such lithological changes* Close to the extra-cratonic fold belt the lithic fill consists of piedmont and flood-plain deposits whi~ch contain intermittently lacustrine and swamp facies. As the distance from the fold belt increases, the rate of sediment supply decreases and remains low even close to the cratonic margin because of the weakness of cratonic sediment sources.

Shelf sediments in the form of delta, pro-delta, and other transitional and marine deposits occur therefore mainly in the distal portion of the clastic wedge or proximal to the craton. This facies distribution occurs in Upper Carboniferous stages in the Appalachian fore-deep of Eastern U.S.A.54 The coarsest grain sizes are concentrated in the thinner part of the, sediment wedges which are.closest to the source, while towards the basin the deposits thicken and become more shaly.51 Their depositional environment lies outside the* geosyn­ clinal domain, and the coal measures formed in the shelf region on a cratonic basement differ sufficiently from those in the actual fore-deep to form a separate entity. ' This coal is concentrated in a' smaller number of seams, the rank usually •varies little, and the proportion of inertinite is often high.19,45 Fig. 7 shows the difference between the two environments in both geometry and distribution of coarse and fine clastic sediments. Structurally the two environments may be separated by a tectonic hingeline which divides them on the basis of uneven subsidence resulting from the tectonic setting of the basin between a mobile orogenic belt and a relatively stable craton respectively.

10.2. Australian Geotectonic Setting

The Permian sediments near the south-western and north-eastern margins of the Sydney Basin (N.S.W.) well illustrate the (contrasting features of U-11 cratonic-shelf and molasse deposits. In Table U the two lithologies are compared, while in Table 5 the main lithostratigraphic units in the Permian of the Hunter Valley are compared with those of the Tertiary of the Sub-Alpine molasse fore-deep of Bavaria.

• From lithologic and geotectonic considerations the Sydney basin may be regarded as part of a Permian fore-deep system which froiL New South Wales to Queensland was sandwiched between the orogenic hinterland of the New England Fold Belt (NE) and an earlier consolidated,slargely denuded fore-land to the southwest. As shown by the isopachs in Fig. 8,maximum development of the Upper Permian coal measures in the Sydney and the Bowen Basins occurred close to the respective orogenic margins. The fore-deep of the Hunter Valley (Newcastle Exogeosyncline)58 can De distinguished from the western parts of the Sydney Basin, which seem characteristic of a shelf marginal to the cratonized Central and Southern Fold-Belt.

11. CONCLUSIONS'

An attempt has been made in this paper to discuss the problem of paralic coal seam formation in the terms of a stratigraphic model concept. It is felt that this has led to an improvement in the manner of presenting the geological aspect of the highly complex process of coal genesis by stripping it of its attributive features. What remains are two fundamentally different tectonic environments and a few process elements which are related in specific ways, such as the degree of variability, to the respective tectonic setting. Differences in the magnitude of the process elements cause the water level to oscillate, thus forcing the swamp belt, whose position is between the strand- line and terrestrial inland deposits, to migrate forward and backward as transgressions and regressions occur. No wonder then that paralic coal seams are often thin and plentiful J They do not constitute temporal entities but occupy an "oblique" position within the stratigraphic column; however, so do. most stratigraphic surfaces. 14-12 12. ACKNOWLEDGMENT The author wishes to thank Mr. T.G. Callcott, Section Leader,.B.H.P. Central Research Laboratories, Shortland, Nev South Wales., for critically reading the manuscript and making valuable suggestions.

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LIST OF CAPTIONS

Fig. 1. Equal-area palaeolatitude (xp) histogram of coal deposits with palaeomagnetic control* Square ruled = Carboniferous and older; crosses = Permian; dotted = Mesozoic; horizontal lines = Tertiary. Superimposed ordinates are annual precipitation in cm/y (full line) and temperature °C (dashed line) relative to recent latitudes (*r).

Fig. 2. Correlation between palaeolatitudes and geographic and stratigraphic distribution of Australian hard coal deposits. UPPER CARBONIFEROUS: 1. Inferior coal seams of Italia Road Formation (Westphalian-Stephanian?), north of Raymond Terrace, and other occurrences in the Hunter Valley. 2. Inferior coal seams in Alum Mountain Volcanics at Bulahdelah (Stephanian-Lower Permian?). LOWER TO MIDDLE PERMIAN; 3. Inferior coal seams in Lower Bowen Volcanics (Sakmarian). 4. Thick coal seams in Reids Dome Beds (Sakmarian-Artinskian) of Denison Trough. (At present not economic because of great depth.) 5. Steam and coking coals in Collinsville Coal Measures (Artinskian). 6. Economic seams in upper portion of Aldebaran Sandstone and Freitag Formation (Artinskian) of Denison Trough. 7. Coals in Peawaddy Formation (Kazanian) of Denison Trough and on Springsure Shelf. 8. Coal seams in Calen Coal Measures (Artinskian) of larrol Basin, near Mackay. 9. Several thick seams of steam coal in Ashford Coal Measures (Artinskian) of Ashford Basin. 10. Coal seams (Artinskian) in Stroud-Gloucester Trough. 11. Inferior coals in Markwell Coal Measures (Artinskian?) at Bulahdelah. 12. Irregular seams in Clyde River Coal Measures (Sakmarian-Artinskian). 13- Inferior coals at base of Shoalhaven Group (Artinskian?) between Kangaroo River and Tallong. H. One coal seam at base of Dalwood Group (Artinskian?), near Raymond Terrace. 15. Thick seams of steam coal in Greta Coal Measures and regional equivalents (Upper Artinskian) in districts of Maitland-Cessnock- Greta, Muswellbrook-Singleton, and Werris Creek-Gunnedah-Curlewis. Small Tasmanian coalfields with some economic seams in Mersey Group (Artinskian) at 16. Preolenna, 17. Mersey,.18. Midlands district, 19. Mt. Pelion, and 20. South-eastern district. 21. Coal in Irwin Coal Measures (Artinskian) of Perth Basin. 22. Steam coal seams in Collie Beds (Sakmarian-Artinskian) of Collie and Wilga Coalfields. UPPER PERMIAN: 23. Inferior coals in Little River Coal Measures (Tartarian?) near Cooktown. 24. Economic seams in Mount Mulligan Coal. Measures (Tartarian?), near Cairns. 25. Outcrops of little known coal beds (Tartarian?) at Oxley River. The Bowen Basin contains many Upper Permian (Tartarian) coal seams displaying a wide range of rank. The main districts are 26. Elphinstone,. 27. Blair Athol (could be Artinskian), 28. Bluff and Blackwater, 29. Baralaba, 30. Kianga and Moura. The Sydney Basin contains many Upper Permian coal seams. The main occurrences are 31. Ulan, 32. Singleton Coal Measures (Tartarian) contain mainly steam coal in Hunter Valley and in North-western Coalfield (Black Jack Coal Measures); some coking coal is also present; 33» Newcastle and East Maitland districts in Northern Coalfield with Newcastle and Tomago Coal Measures, 34. Western Coalfield with Illawarra Coal Measures, 35. South-western and 36. Southern Coalfields with 'Illawarra Coal Measures. 37. Coals of the Coorabin Series (Tartarian) in the Riverina. Inferior coals of the Cygnet Coal U-16

Measures (Kungurian-Tartarian) in Tasmania at 38. Mt. Pelion and 39. Cygnet. 40. . Steam coals of Collie Burn Series and Cardiff Series (Kungurian-Tartarian) at Collie. TRIASSIC: 41. Leigh Creek Coal Measures (Middle to Upper Triassic at Leigh Creek. 42. Triassic coals in south-eastern Tasmania. 43. Thick seam of steam coal in Callide Coal Measures (Lower Triassic?), near Gladstone. 44. Some economic coal in the Nymboida Coal Measures (Lower to Middle Triassic) of Clarence Basin. 4-5. Mainly steam coal in Ipswich Coal Measures (Lower to Middle Triassic) at Ipswich. 46. One seam «±t Nundah near Brisbane.

JURASSIC; Several seams in Wonthaggi Coal Measures of South Gippsland. 4-8. Inferior coal in Ballimore Beds (Dogger?), near Dubbo. 4-9- Thin seams in Walloon Coal'Measures (Dogger to Lower Malm) and Grafton Shales (Upper Malm), of the Clarence-Moreton Basin. Coals also in the Walloon Coal Measures at 50. Rosewood-Walloon and 51. Darling Downs. Small basins with some Jurassic coal at 52. Tiaro, 53. Mulgedie, 54-. Pascoe River and 55* Laura. CRETACEOUS; Lower Cretaceous (Albian) coal at 56. Burrum and 57. Styx. 58. Little known' coals occur in Winton Formation (Cenomanian) of Great Artesian Basin. 59. Thin seams at Kuntha Hill.

Fig. 3. Lithotype composition of Balgownie Seam (Illawarra Coal Measures) in South Bulli Colliery, Southern Coalfield. 1 = Carbonaceous shale and other dirt bands, 2 = shaly coal, 3 = dull and banded dull coal, 4 F banded coal, 5 = bright and banded bright coal, 6 ~ fibrous coal (fusain). Scale applies vertically.

Fig. 4. Cross-section through Newcastle Coalfield showing relation between coal seam and inters earn conglomerates. •

Fig. 5* Stages in formation of a paralic coal seam during marine transgression. Black = coalj horizontal lines = marine deposits; vertical lines = terrestrial deposits; S.L. = sea level.

Fig. 6. Stages in formation of a paralic coal seam during marine regression. Symbols as in Fig. 5.

Fig. 7. Schematic cross-section through a simple fore-deep. Open circles = alluvial and piedmont deposits (molasse)j dots and dashes = coarse and fine shelf (e.g. delta) sediments.

Fig. 8. Isopachs of Upper Permian (Tartarian) Coal Measures in Sydney and Bowen Basins. U-17

TABLE 1. PLANT TYPES IN £HE CARBONIFEROUS AND PERMIAN SWAMP ENVIRONMENTS, AFTER M. ,TEICHMULLER4- AND PLUMSTEAD6

Permo- Carboniferous Carboniferous (Northern (Southern Environment Hemisphere) Hemisphere)

Open water • (open moor) Algae and plankton

Limnotelmatic zone Calamites, Phyllotheca, (reed moor) lycopods schizoneura

Wet soil Sieilaria and Neoeeerathiopsis, (forest moor) other cyclodendron. pteridophytae lycopodiopsis Relatively dry G^&afflopt-erj-s, (terrestrial moor) Cordaites glossopteris, Walkomiella

TABLE 2. SOME LITHOLOGIC CHARACTERISTICS OF COAL-BEARING DEPOSITS FORMED IN TECTONICALLY MOBILE AND CONSOLIDATED PARTS OF EUROPE (AFTER STILLED)

Productive Carboniferous Productive Tertiary in Mobile Hercynian of Consolidated Basins Central Europe

Average thickness of coal-bearing deposits 5,000 m 150 m

Average number of coal seams 200 2

Average number of economic seams 90 2

Average seam thickness 1 m 15,m

Overall thickness of coal 180 m 25 m

Proportion of coal (#) ; j 3.6 16.7 14-18

TABLE 3. CORRELATION BETWEEN THE DISTRIBUTION OF WORLD RESERVES OF COAL (PER CENT) AND THE SETTING COALFIELDS

Fore-deeps marginal or orogenic belts - paralic 70

Intra-deeps or orogenic belts - mainly limnic 1

Shelf marginal to consolidated areas (cratons) - paralic 21

Interior of consolidated areas (cratons) - mainly limnic 8

TABLE 4.. STRATIGRAPHIC COMPARISON BETWEEN PERMIAN SEDIMENTS DEPOSITED NEAR THE OROGENIC (NE) AND CRATONIC (SW) MARGINS OF THE SYDNEY BASIN., N.S.W. DATA AFTER MfcKENZIE,55 BRANAGAN,56 AND ENGEL57

SW Margin near Lithgow NE Margin in Lower Hunter Valley J (shelf) (orogenic margin)

TRIASSIC --

100m - ILLAWARRA COAL MEASURES 40Qm - NEWCASTLE COAL MEASURES Conglomerate = 11% conglomerate = 29% Sandstone = 17% sandstone — 23% Shale = 63% shale = 17% Coal (7 seams) = 9% tuffs and claystones = 19% coal (21 seams) = 12%

200m -. SHOALHAVEN GROUP 40Gm - TOMAGO COAL MEASURES Clastic marine and conglomerate = 1% Marine-glacial sandstone = 59% Sediments shale = 34% Basal conglomerate coal (15 seams) = 6% 1,500m - MAITLAND GROUP largely marine clastic sediments with glacial intercalations 100m - GRETA COAL MEASURES conglomerate = 50% sandstone = 25% shale = 15% coal (3 seams) = 10% 2,000m - DALWOOD GROUP marine clastic deposits with glacial intercalations and occasionally a basal coal seam

DEVONIAN AND SILURIAN CARBONIFEROUS u-

TABLE 5. COMPARISON BETWEEN THE MAIN LITHOSTRATIGRAPHIC SUBDIVISIONS OF THE PERMIAN IN THE HUNTER VALLEY AND THE TERTIARY OF THE SUB-ALPINE MOLASSE FORE-DEEP OF BAVARIA .™ SUB-ALPINE MOLASSE HUNTER VALLEVAT Y (BAVARIA) New Terminology Old Terminology

• Newcastle Coal Measures Upper Coal Measures Upper Freshwater Molasse Tomago Coal Measures Middle Coal Measures (Coal-bearing)

Maitland Group Upper Marine Series Upper Marine Molasse

Greta Coal Measures Lower Coal Measures Lower Freshwater Molasse (Coal-bearing)

Dalwood Group Lower Marine Series Lower Marine Molasse

I ,0 UPPER ' LOWER TO MIDDLE CARBONIFEROUS ^^o PERMIAN rrrT?^- I\

. II

9 10

3 ..- '« - — IS

i 16 __ -" Sleptianion I lr- 17

__»«•»"' Namurion _^.-"' Kozonion 19 P (Siephomon) .. • •" Sokmarian P(Sokmorion) 20 rri*Tnt Moximum eitenl of inland ice A Marine-glacial deposits

UPPER MESOZOIC PERMIAN

_,, •** Tiossie ^^-*' Cretaceous .»-— Kflianion _*. •*" Triojjic Sedimentory basins Sedimentary basins

Fig. 2 U-21

i 2 3 I 2 4 5 l.lz" 3J4 12 3 4 5 6

^ ^ X \> / ^

^ z: ^ z ^ N> \, ^

^ \ ^ ^ >

/ ^

A 1/ / ^ /

/ Scale in cm ~7 v\ 0 10 20 30 i i., i i PI \A Fig. 3

/Coal ^Conglomerate

Fig. 4- U-22

Qcd + Qpd = R

Qcd < Qpd

Fig. 5 BRISBANE

L Qcd s R A

•[•••mini ,., u

„ .'""""^^l—-•*»,

Qcd > R

(Qcd-D)tQpd = R B

Qcd -D < R' — — — — S.L.

Qcd - 0 > R TTTTrrr C !l TTT^TT>T__ • Qpd- D = 0

Fig. 8 Fig. 6

i— CRATONIC SHELF OROGENIC BELT ~i

Fig. 7 15-1

PAPER 15

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENTS IN COAL PREPARATION

By: R. G. BURDON* and A. Le PAGE+

SUMMARY

The continuing increase in production of coal made possible by mechani­ sation has necessitated developments in coal preparation technology. In recent years the advantages of properly conducted laboratory and field research to obtain data have been appreciated, particularly in the beneficiation of fine coal. This work has resulted in progress being made in the standardisation of procedures for the presentation and interpretation of data for process selection and design.

An important development has been the selective beneficiation of certain coals to produce a coking fraction and a fuel fraction, so increasing the over­ all value of the run-of-mine product.

Current areas of research and process development in coal preparation include sulphur removal (air pollution); tailings disposal; and flotation of oxidized coal.

Some of the'work in these fields is discussed and reference made to selective: beneficiation of coal constituents,

1. INTRODUCTION

The continuing increase in world demand for power and metal products has resulted in an increase in coal production. In Australia the rate of increase

* Senior Lecturer, School of Mining Engineering, University of New South Wales. ,, ', + Coal Preparation Research Scientist, Australian Coal Industry Research Laboratories Ltd. 15-2 has been greater than in most other coal-producing countries, the production for 1968-69 being 42,514-,000 tons. Increased production has been possible by mechanization-of mining operations: for example, in New South Wales, in 1968, 98.7$ of all coal mined was mechanically cut and 99.7$ mechanically loaded.' Of equal importance is the use of continuous miners; the relevant figures for New South Wales for 1968 showed that 85% of all coal mined was produced by continuous miners, with 67.8$ being loaded by these units.

During the last 20-year period market requirements have changed. Current demands are for a higher-quality product and a reduced particle-size range, the principal outlets being for coking coal or power generation. For 1968-69 the actual distribution figures for coal from New South Wales according to the Joint Coal Board,1 are shown in Table 1.

Table 1 shows that a considerable proportion of the run-of-mine material is rejected, and demonstrates the amount of work required in the coal preparation plants.

Other factors besides increased production have influenced developments in coal preparation. For example, mechanization has caused a higher proportion of fine coal to be produced, requiring more consideration of methods of clean- • ing fine coal; and, because more water is used underground for dust suppression, wet processes have been necessary. Notable new processes were the introduction into New South Wales of froth flotation for cleaning coal (1958), the heavy- medium cyclone (1963), and the development of selective beneficiation to produce a coking fraction from coal normally used for electricity generation (1968). The rate of utilization of froth flotation has been less in Australia than overseas (Plaksin and Klassen report that by 1970 probably 4-0 million tons will be treated in the U.S.S.R. by flotation annually).^ This process is not only beneficial in recovering valuable coal, especially coking fractions, but also reduces costs of refuse disposal.

Research in flotation is necessary since this process will be of value in producing the high-quality products necessary for coal-fired turbines, manufacture of electrode carbon, plastics manufacture, and magnetohydrodynamic power generation.

Important developments have been made overseas in the fields of homo- genization and transport. Unit trains have become dominant in controlling the price of fuel at the point of utilization, and have increased the need for qual­ ity control. Transportation by pipeline will necessitate more research in preparation technology, especially in the use of conventional rod mills for comminution, methods for particle-size control, and dewatering.3

Stringent restrictions on pollution and industrial effluents will increase the applications of coal preparation. As a consequence more control over the mine production quality will be needed and coal preparation technologists will be required to become more concerned with all stages of production.

Finally, selective preparation to reduce boiler corrosion by controlling the inorganic constituents in coal may require the addition of reagents such as lime and the removal of alkalies.

2. PROCESS SELECTION

Until recently it has been usual to purchase unitized plants rather than to design the operation on the -basis of research. The results have been 15-3 unfortunate in some cases when expert knowledge of the technical and economic problems peculiar to the deposit concerned has been ignored and the plant has been based on a design used in another situation. An interesting article which discusses design has been presented by Donnelly and Pell.4

One purpose of this paper is to draw attention to the new philosophy of process selection or process design. Coal preparation engineers were amongst the first of the mineral-processing fraternity to use applied research work to select the method of preparation to be used. This position arose because of the large range of particle sizes .to be cleaned in coal preparation compared with mineral processing, where for gravity concentration or flotation tests it was normal to be concerned with small quantities of fine material, permitting the use of small-scale units to treat representative samples, with subsequent scale- up for plant design. For coal beneficiation tests, minus 6 in, or even minus 8 in. material was considered, so that the results of the float-and-sink analysis were used to predict the probable beneficiation in a jig, heavy-medium separator, concentrating table or cyclone, and subsequently for the selection of the most appropriate unit to be installed.

While this was a satisfactory development, appreciation of what it could achieve has been restricted. Now that data are being collated, and techniques for testing devised with more refinements, progress in prediction can be antici­ pated. The use of petrographic examination, to determine the maceral composition of the coal and consequently its cleaning characteristics and potential, is being developed and will aid blending. By X-ray analysis it is possible to determine the location of ash-forming constituents and consequently to estimate liberation. This technique can no doubt be developed for automatically examining products of comminution and hence calculating the' most suitable size for liberation, and selecting the preparation process.

For automation, standardization of procedures for float-and-sink analysis and froth flotation is necessary, especially in terms of methods of testing,, calculation, and presentation of results. A committee of the Standards Associa­ tion of Australia is engaged on this work.

2.1, Process Design

Two coal preparation research stations are now available to the Austral­ ian coal mining industry, located at Maitland in New South Wales and at Rock- hampton in Queensland, They provide a facility for closing the gap between bench-scale studies and the final commercial installation. The stations were established during 1969 and commissioned late in that year. Since then they have been engaged in providing information for the purposes of process design.

Fundamentally, these research stations are materials handlingplantswith emphasis on flexibility. There is a minimum of fixed equipment, and washing components can be arranged and rearranged rapidly and at will. Samples in tonnage lots can be handled, up to .several hundred tons if necessary, and with-^ out tne pressure of the demands of production.

Th£ programme can be stopped at any time and necessary plant adjustments - made. Emphasis is on control. The feed rate to a system can be controlled by ., the precise measurement of rate of change of weight. All feed material and products can be weighed. ,,

The following are examples of typical examinations carried,out.since .the . date of commissioning. In,all cases tonnage quantities were examined, and in 15-4 one case the quantity was in the order of several hundred tons.

(1) Deifcermine the optimum screen surface for the dry screening of a nin-of-mine sample. (2) Determine the optimum conditions for the froth flotation and filtration of run-of-mine samples. (3) Prepare a washed coal to specification using dense medium, cyclone, and froth flotation processes. (4) Investigate the froth flotation and filtration of a fine coal discard. (5) Prepare a plus ^-inch washed coal to specificaticn by dry screening and dense-medium cyclone washing. (6) Water-washing cyclone preparation of fine and coarse material.

The3e investigations provided the necessary information for process design. They allow washing prediction work to be checked and also provide the occasion to measure and observe conditions that are not easily recognized at laboratory scale. Examples of this latter point are slimes production, particle-size degradation, change of pH condition of the water in circuit, flocculation conditions, and filtration characteristics.

This information can be made available on the basis of use of equipment of commercial dimension before the design detail of the proposed commercial plant is finalized. By this means many of the problems which might arise during the commissioning of the proposed commercial plant can be recognized at an early stage and the necessary design action taken.

One point which has come out of this work is the need to give greater attention to the particle-size distribution of the material to be treated. The value of correct particle-size information cannot be overemphasized. It is suggested that many of the shortcomings of previously established commercial preparation plants have been due to the lack of reliable information on particle- size distribution.

A study of the information provided by many prospecting programmes indic­ ates emphasis on float-sink studies and detailed ply analysis, but no information on. particle size. This information should be obtained wherever possible; it is just as important as the other properties of the material under examination. Meaningful information can be obtained from diamond drill cores, and this in­ formation when plotted in modified Rosin-Rammler form can be used to give an indication of the most probable size consist of the material ultimately pro­ duced. In all forms of sampling, bias can occur to give incorrect information on size distribution, particularly as regards the fine sizes. No doubt bias has occurred with plants under-designed for fines treatment.

3. EQUIPMENT AND PROCESSES 5 . A survey made for the 5th International Coal Preparation Congress in­ cluded data from 16 countries. Except for Korea, Australia showed the highest growth rate of production for the period 1955-1964. Concerning washery pract­ ice, Australia had a low percentage of reject material, lcfer figures being recorded only for Canada, U.S.S.R., and India.

The survey showed that jigs were still the most commonly used process, followed by dense-medium processes based on magnetite. Countries in which a high proportion of coal was cleaned by dense-medium processes were South .Africa (62%), India(57.1%), France (46.9$), and Belgium (45.5$). The possible advantages of these processes were the ability to make three product separations, 15-5 sharp cut points at low specific gravities, and the handling of wider feed variations in terms of quality and quantity. Concentrating tables were import­ ant mainly in the U.S.A. and Australia, and dense-medium cyclones in Belgium, India, Netherlands, and South Africa, Launders were used in the U.S.S.R. (20$), which was also a major user of pneumatic processes.

The percentage of coal cleaned by froth flotation was low in Australia compared with Belgium, India, the Netherlands, and South Africa. Thermal dry­ ing was important in the U.S.A. and U.S.S.R., with the fluidized-bed and flash types of driers the most commonly used. The bedding-out system of storage and blending, with bucket-wheel reclaimers, is being used because of the advantages of feed-grade control, especially for jigs, and also to ensure grade control for marketing.

There has been considerable interest in the combination of cyclones and froth flotation", especially in view of the selectivity and the ability to make more than one product. Froth flotation is now used for 4.-10$ of the r.o.m. coal, usually in the size range of -gmm to 4.0.microns. Larger-capacity flotation cells are being used, and M.I.B.C. is the most common reagent.

New processes or machines available include the electronic coal sorter, dry flotation?, the Multidune, the Dyna Whirlpool, the Vorsylj, and the water cyclone.

Water washing cyclones have been the centre of interest and investigation during recent years, and several installations of this type have been made in Australia. The initial installation was made as a "scalping" process, for re­ moving much of' the light material in the raw feed prior to dense-medium cyclone treatment. These were single-stage operations involving the use of large, 24.-in. diameter, cyclones. The reason for these installations was to reduce magnetite consumption, and the material treated was -1 inch.

Other cyclone installations have been made using"'smaller^diameter (12 in.) two-stage operation for the treatment of minus -J- in. material. These installat­ ions are attractive in terms of compactness in relation to the tonnage handled, require little attention during operation, but lack sensitivity to variation of the size distribution of the feed material. 8 9 'Small (2-in.) water washing cyclones have been examined ' and the con­ clusions reached were that small-diameter cyclones offer an alternative to froth flotation for the treatment of fine, minus 1mm material.

The apparent advantages were that no reagents would be required, and, because the separation was by gravity, surface characteristics, oxidation, slimes, etc., would not affect the separation process. The apparent disadvantages were that the system would have to be positively sealed to prevent blockages in the small cyclone opening.

In general terms/ the place for water washing cyclones in the overall coal preparation system appears to be in the 1/8 in. to 1/4mm particle-size range.. If a water washing cyclone system were sandwiched between dense-medium cyclones and froth flotation, the comparatively coarse 1/3-inch desliming operation would reduce magnetite consumption, and the water washing cyclones could relieve the froth flotation process in ;the event of treating oxidized material. '

However, the specific use of; water cyclones would depend on all factors associated with the particular preparation problem. 15-6

An area of equipment development which has always been attractive in coal preparation is dry methods of separation. Recent work at the Warren. Spring Laboratory, in England, has produced two dry separating machines which could be used in coal preparation. The first is a launder separator of the familiar pinched-sluice type, which, by means of air passing through a perforated bottom, maintains the stream of solid feed particles in a fluidized condition, permitting it to flow down the launder at the same time being class­ ified according to its density.

The second unit maintains a fluidized bed of megnetite or ferrosilicon by means of air passing through a porous membrane. Feed material is separated according to its density and is mechanically removed.

4. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

4-.1- Selective Preparation

Normally, comminution and preparation in coal technology operations are carried out.with the object of removing non-combustible material and reducing the particle size of the cleaned product to that required for subsequent use. The physical and chemical properties of the coal constituents are such that selective breakage followed by selective preparation can yield products for special purposes. Provided that liberation is achieved, separation by gravity processes or by froth flotation may be practised^ and in the latter case advant­ age may be taken of the differences in rates of recovery due to particle size and surface properties to obtain graded products from flotation cells in series. For example, in one test on coal from the.Bulli seam flotation followed by fine grinding and acid leaching yielded a product containing less than 3% coal. Hillman, in discussion on paper D4 at the fourth International Coal Preparation Conference, stated that an ash of 0.65$ coal was obtained using a mixture of cresylic acid and xylenol on coal from the Victoria seam, Durham. Further developmental work on the economic separation of the coal macerals is intended.

4-«2. Oxidation

Another variable in coal flotation is oxidation prior to flotation. Ex­ posure of coal to an oxidizing atmosphere at 100 C has been shown to reduce the flotation contact angle of vitrain to 15 and oxidation at 200 C to 5 . Selective depression may be possible by oxidation.

An associated important area of research is reactivation of coal the reactivity of which has been naturally depressed (usually as a result of oxid­ ation). No satisfactory reagent for the conditions investigated has so far been found.

4.3« Fine-Coal Recovery and Tailings Disposal

Possibly the greatest problem facing the coal preparation section of the industry at this time is the disposal of the fine material from the washing plants. Increased mechanization in the production of coal results in greater production of fines. These often include a substantial proportion of low-ash material with a high concentration of vi train, an essential and valuable. cqm7 . ponent of coking coal. This material can be recovered by means of froth fldtation and small-diameter water washing cyclones, followed" by filtration. This pro­ cedure reduces the quantity of material going to waste and minimizes the possib­ ility of spontaneous combustion of refuse dumps. Owing to the expense and tech­ nical difficulties involved it has not been much practised in the past, but it I J- >

is coming into favour now that greater emphasis is being placed on the reduction of stream pollution and the demands for recovery of the most valuable component of coking coal.

The tailings from the -washing operation may be recovered either by filter press or by flocculation and thickening. Filter presses are_ expensive and slow in operation but do offer a positive method of recovery. Flocculation and thickening also offer a positive method of recovery, provided the thickener has adequate capacity. Fundamental studies of the nature of the material to be flocculated and thickened are necessary and in this field the use of "zeta" potential measurement is valuable. These studies enable the determination of the optimum conditions for flocculation and recovery.

Adequate thickener design results in the formation of a concentrated underflow that may be pumped to well-designed slurry ponds. Sites for these are difficult to find, and in some cases they are located many miles from the vashery.

There appears to be a need for study of methods for consolidating the thickener underflow, possibly by mixing with crushed coarse refuse and the addition of cement or pulverized-fuel boiler ash, and thus enabling it to be mechanically handled. This latter material has "pozzalanic" properties and is readily available at low cost.

4-3. Sulphur

Possibly the most important current problem, in relation to atmospheric pollution, is reduction of the sulphur content of coal.

In this country the ratio of inorganic to organic sulphur is usually less than unity, and consequently less than 50/5 of the sulphur is separable by physical or chemical processes. The sulphide sulphur-content in many seams is relatively low, or occurs as coarse sulphite mineral'particles recoverable-by physical separation. However, in other areas the sulphites occur in a finely disseminated form, in some cases as sub-micron particles, posing a difficult recovery problem which has yet to be solved.

Physical separation methods for sulphide sulphur include various forms of gravity separation; froth flotation; electrostatic separation,* and alteration of the pyrite to pyrrhotite or magnetite followed by magnetic separation.

A possible method of alleviating the sulphur problem is based upon either conversion of the sulphur to a sulphide in the fluidized combustion chamber, using dolomite or limestone, or adsorption of the sulphur dioxide in sodium citrate or tributyl phosphate"*0.

Separation of sulphide sulphur by flotation is possible where the sul­ phides are liberated at a suitable particle size.

Dissolution processes for sulphide sulphur removal require the use of an inorganic solvent such as ferric sulphate at controlled temperatures or, alter­ natively, bacterial leaching. In the.,latter,case some interesting results have been obtained using Thiobacillus ferro-oxidans or Ferrobacillus ferro-oxidan3 at controlled pH and temperature, with additions of ferric sulphate. The difficulty is the time factor: in a typical example the removal of 23-27^ of the 15-8 sulphide sulphur took 30 days. ' No process of this type has as yet been successfully applied and it is in this area that more research work is warranted, both for the reduction of pollution and the recovery of sulphur as a valuable by-product.

Another area for chemical processing of coal is in the removal of im­ purities from brown coal and lignite. Normally, the main operation in pre­ paration of these fuels is concerned with crushing, screening, and drying. In some instances removal of impurities may be beneficial—for example, solium salts which are objectionable in combustion may be removed by ion-exchange processes.

5. CONCLUSION

Research and development in coal preparation technology have improved our knowledge of coal composition and of the effects of various macerals on coal usage, and thus enabled us to predict the best method of coal preparation in a particular set of circumstances. Computer-designed plants can then be detailed to suit specific requirements. It is important that more care be given to feed grade control by blending, which will relieve many of the diffic­ ulties associated with plant control and automation. Standardization of methods of testing will be necessary for effective interpretation of data for design purposes.

Important areas-for research are, first, atmospheric pollution by sulphur, and, secondly, ground pollution by tailings, rejects, and fly-ash.

6. REFERENCES

(1) Joint Coal Board, 22nd Annual Report, 1968--69.

(2) PLAKSIN,-I.N., and KLASSEN, V.I. Scientific and technical progress in coal flotation. Paper A4, Fifth International Coal Preparation Congress, 1966.

(3) COFFEY, R.C., LYONS, K.G., and OAKES, A.C. Mohave generating station, design features. American Power Conference, Chicago, Illinois, 1969.

(4) DONNELLY, J.C., and PELL, D. Design of coal preparation plants for Australian coal. Australian Mining, 1969, 61 (10), 52T59. (5) ANDERSON, R.L., and DEURBRAUCK, A.W.. Worldwide coal preparation and coal consumption trends. Fifth International Coal Preparation Congress, 1966. pp. 505-515.

(6) BUSDON, R.G., and BRADLEY, J.M. Planning a new coal,preparation plant in Australia. Coal Preparation, 1969, £ (1), 12-20. (7) BURDON, R.G., and SMITH, R.A.A. Dry flotation. Nature. Lond., 1962, 196. 980-981. (8) VISMAN, J. Two stage beneficiation of washing effluents with compound water cyclones. Paper'B 1, Fifth International Coal Preparation Congress, 1966. ••,'."••'•: ':'."" • '•"•: "",. (9) Le PAGE, A.J. Study of-2- inch compound ^ater cyclones. Australian Coal Industry Research Laboratories? Report PR 69-1 (1969). 15-9

(10) GEORGE, D.R., CROCHER, L., and ROSENBAUM, J.B- Removal of SO2 and production of sulfur from smelter gases. Fall Meeting, Mining Society, A.I.M.E., March-Sept. 1969.

(11) NAPIER, E., WOOD, R.G., and CHAMBERS, L.A. Bacterial oxidation of pyrite and production of solutions for ore leaching. Paper 39, Advance in Extractive Metallurgy Symposium, J.M.M., London, April 1967.

TABLE 1. PRODUCTION, DISTRIBUTION, AND PREPARATION OF COAL FROM NEW SOUTH WALES,1 1968-69 ('000 tons)

Production 31,735

Preparation R.O.M. Distribution

Coal washed 23,958 75.5 Cleaned coal 19,287 61.0 Rejects U, 671 19.5 15.0 Distribution Iron and steel 5,628 18. V Electricity generation 6,625 21.3 Other purposes 3,033 9.7 Export 11,213 35.9 26,499 100.0

I - • • ".••.••••••••.• • • 16-

PAPER 16

COKING AUSTRALIAN COALS

By: T. G. CALLCOTT* and N. A. BROWN

SUMMARY

Coal blends for the manufacture of coke for Australian iron blast furnaces and some of the physical and chemical requirements for blast-furnace cokes are considered. The significance of coal rank and caking properties in the selection of coals for coke-making blends is discussed, and the need for a versatile test coke oven emphasised. Some features and recent results obtained with the C.R.L. seven cubic foot test oven are described. Possible developments in the fields of both conventional and unconventional coking are reviewed briefly.

1- PRESENT AUSTRALIA! COKING COAL RESOURCES

Proven and potential sources of Australian coals for coke making are at present limited to the Northern and Southern N.S.W. Coalfields and -the' Bo-wen Basin, Queensland. Coal for the manufacture of coke for Australian iron blast furnaces is now supplied almost entirely by New South Wales, but Queens­ land coals have already been used in small quantities and it is possible that they will be increasingly used in the future. Characteristics of the coalfields are described in other- papers to be presented to this conference. Table 1 presents the coals and blends used" at the three coke-making centres of the Australian steel industry.

Senior Principal Research Officer, B.H.P. Central Research Laboratories, Shortland, N.S.W. Senior Research Officer, B.H.P. Central Research Laboratories, Shortland, N.S.W. 16-2

2. COKE QUALITY REQUIREMENTS

2.1. Coke Physical Properties

The physical properties considered of most importance in blast-furnace practice are strength, mean size, and size distribution. Other properties such as reactivity, and apparent and true density, appear to be of secondary importance and will not be discussed here.

Coke strength may be measured by various tests standardized in different countries."1 Drum tumbler tests are most commonly used and the A.S.T.M. tumbler test has been the accepted test in the Australian iron and steel industry for many years j the Micum and Irsid tumbler tests have been used to a lesser extent in Australia. Most tumbler tests yield two strength indices; the one related to larger lumps has commonly been considered as a measure of resistance to impact and the one related to fines produced as a measure of resistance to abrasion. These tests all involve autogeneous grinding.

The strength indices of Australian cokes are given in Table 2, together with corresponding indices which many blast-furnace operators would consider minimum values for "excellent" cokes.

It is questionable whether any strength index can give a true assess-- ment of a coke1s Value as a blast-furnace fuel. In fact, there are instances of cokes being rated highly by one test and much less highly by another. These problems have been discussed in detail elsewhere,2 and have led to an attempt to obtain an overall estimate called "coke tenacity".

The mean size of a blast-furnace coke is largely controlled by screening and/or cutting before charging, but is influenced also by the size distribution of the coke as pushed and by subsequent breakage. It is usually desirable to keep the percentage of small coke (e.g. less than 0.75 inch) in the battery product to a minimum since such coke is not charged to the blast furnace. However, if suitable coke strength indices are maintained, the percentage of breeze is usually acceptably low. Since the coke-oven operator has little control over the top size of the coke the problem of coke size is a secondary one as far as the selection of coals is concerned, and coke strength is the most important physical property.

2.2. Coke Chemical Properties

The organic matter in blast-furnace coke usually contains about 97% carbon, the remainder being hydrogen, sulphur, oxygen, and nitrogen. Since the organic analysis does not vary significantly among blast-furnace cokes, variations in chemical properties are mainly due to variations in the nature of the ash. Coke carbon is well estimated from the formula: 0.97 (l00-ash$).

2.2.1. Effect of ash.- Coke ash should be regarded as not merely a 'diluent to the coke carbon but an impurity which must be heated and fluxed. Some of the coke carbon is thus used in heating, melting, and decomposing the ash-minerals and in heating the limestone necessary to slag them. Formulae have been developed by the B.H.P. Central Research Laboratories for calculating this carbon loss for various ash compositions and various blast-furnace practices. For typical Australian blast-furnace practice,_.the # carbon loss is about half the '•% Si02 in the coke.

The effect of an increase in coke ash on blast-furnace coke consumption 16-3 may he illustrated by the following example. Suppose a furnace is consuming 1400 lb of coke per ton of iron produced. If the coke has 15$ ash, its carbon content will be approximately 82.5%, equivalent to 1155 lb carbon per ton of iron. The carbon loss for typical conditions would be 3.75$ or 52.5 lb carbon per ton of iron, and the carbon available for iron smelting (net carbon) would be 1102.5 lb per ton of iron.

If the coke ash increases to 16$, total carbon will then be (0.97 x 0.84 x c) lb, where c is the coke consumption under the new conditions. The new carbon loss will be 4-0$ or 0.04c lb and the net carbon (0.97 x 0.84c) - 0.04c lb. Since the same amount of net carbon will be required to smelt a ton of iron.

(0.97 x 0.84c) - 0.04c = 1102.5; and c = 1423 lb

• Hence a rise in coke ash from 15 to 16$ results in the consumption of an additional 23 lb of coke for every ton of iron produced, or an additional 77 tons of coke per day for a plant of the capacity of Port Kembla Steelworks. This represents the production from about four additional coke ovens.

The above calculation considers only the additional fuel requirements to handle the additional ash. In practice, however, other aspects of furnace operation would also be adversely affected by increased ash; for example, slag volume would increase and production rate would fall.

The quantity of ash in coke is determined mainly by the ash yield of the raw coal, washing processes, and coal volatile matter; and hence these are important factors in selecting coals for blends.

2.2.2. Effect of chemical composition of ash.- The most important con­ stituents of Lne coke ash are silica, alumina, lime- iron, sulphur," and'phosphorus. Silica and alumina are the main inorganic constituents of most cokes, and their concentration depends on the nature of the clay minerals associated with the coals.3

Compared with most overseas cokes, Australian cokes are high in ash. The ash is relatively high in silica, low in iron oxides, and low in lime. The ash of cokes from Newcastle coals is usually low in alumina owing to the low kaolinite content of the coal minerals, while southern N.S.W. coals tend to have lower silica/alumina ratios. The favourable silica/alumina ratio in the coke ash is offset by the low silica/alumina ratio of the gangue of Australian ores, so that the slags tend to have troublesome silica/alumina ratios. Lime and iron are not undesirable constituents of coke, for obvious reasons.

The level of sulphur in coal, and hence in coke, should be considered in the evaluation of blends. During coking it has been found that roughly 70$ of the sulphur in the coal remains in the coke, regardless of the proportions of organic and inorganic, sulphur.^*5 Since coke yields are also of the order of 70$, the $ sulphur in the coke is approximately equal to the $ sulphur in the coal.

Although Australian coals and cokes used in the steel industry are relatively low in sulphur, about three-quarters of the blast-furnace sulphur load comes from the coke.o Any increase in coke sulphur requires additional slag volume if the same hot metal sulphur value is.to be maintained, and the • attitional slag in turn leads to increased coke consumption.

In Australian coke making coals phosphorus occurs mainly in the.mineral 16-4

apatite, and it all appears to remain in the coke. In the blast furnace, all the phosphorus ends up in the hot metal, in which it is an undesirable element. If not removed in the steel-making process it can lead to brittleness in the steel products. Generally, coke is not a major source of phosphorus in Australia.

3. EVALUATION OF COALS FOR COKE MAKING

In selecting coals for coking blends the two main considerations are: (1) the need to provide blast-furnace coke of acceptable quality; (2) the availability and cost of the coals, upon which depend the cost of coke and,more importantly, the cost of carbon available for smelting iron in the blast furnace.

Rarely is a single coal used to make blast-furnace coke; normally several coals are blended, so as to obtain a compromise between coke quality, economy, and conservation of coal resources. The behaviour of a coal as a blend component is therefore more important than the coking properties of the coal itself, and there are instances where coke quality has been improved by the addition of, say, 10-15% of a "non-coking" coal to a blend. Nevertheless, it is essential to assess first the coke-making ability of the coal by itself.

It has been found convenient to classify coals (or blends) into one of the following categories: Prime-coking,. These coals yield cokes with very good physical properties and they upgrade medium or poor coking blends to yield good cokes.

Medium-coking. These coals may yield good cokes but do not upgrade poor blends to yield first-class cokes.

Poor-coking. These coals produce weak cokes.

Non-coking. These coals do not form cokes.

After the coals have been classified in this way, predictions may be made about their behaviour in various blends. However, actual coking tests, ultimately in commercial ovens, are required for final confirmation.

Experience has shown that it is not possible to predict the physical properties of coke accurately from the common laboratory analyses and tests. However, it is well known that the ability to form good coke is related to the rank and to the caking properties of the coal.

3-1. Significance of Rank

Coals vary in rank according to the degree of carbonification they have undergone since deposition. Brown coals and lignites are the lowest-rank coals, anthracites the highest, while the bituminous and carbonaceous coals are inter­ mediate in rank. The following changes in properties are among those associated with increasing rank: increasing carbon content and calorific value, and de­ creasing volatile matter, oxygen, and moisture content.

•• ; The definition of rank as the degree of carbonifi cation precludes total reliance on any single parameter to measure it. Callcott2 has suggested a method of calculating a rank index from one or more of several parameters generally accepted as rank-dependent. These include volatile matter, carbon," hydrogen, '•••-' oxygen, calorific value (all dry, mineral-matter-free basis), and reflectance of vitrinite. 16-5

Blends used for coke making rarely contain any coal of less than 80% carbon on the dry mineral matter free (d.m.m.f.) basis; such coals are lignitous and would be of lesser rank than Class 8 of the Australian Classification of Coals (A.S. K184-1969). Coals of such low rank are unsuitable for coking, for three major reasons. First, their yield of coke (and net carbon) is low and that of volatile by-products high; second, they either do not fuse during heating or they fuse so weakly that they tend to weaken the resulting coke when used in blends; third, during heating between 4.80° and 6506C in a blend, they increase coke fissuring. Also, these low-rank coals are often susceptible to atmospheric oxidation, which further lessens their value in coking blends.

Coals of very high rank - anthracites and semi-anthracites - are also unsuitable for coke making and are seldon used in blends. Although their yield of carbonized solids is high, they do not fuse during coking and do not readily blend- into the plastic mass.

Between these extremes are the prime and medium coking bituminous coals, with a d.m.m.f. carbon content generally between 87 and 91%, that provide the basis for good coking blends, while a wide variety of similar rank coal3 with poorer coking properties also exist. Poor coking coals are common in classes 2, 3, and 6 of A.S. K184-1969.

3.2. Significance of Caking Quality

Caking tests for coals measure the ability of coal particles to soften during heating and fuse into a mass which, on further heating, forms coke. Different caking tests use different methods of sample preparation, different heating conditions, and measure different phenomena;- but, in general, the more "fluid" the material becomes in the plastic stage, the higher the caking test index.

Commonly-used standardized caking tests are the crucible swelling test, the Gray-King coke type test, the Audibert-Arnu dilatometer test, and the Gieseler plastometer test. None of these tests correlates precisely with any other caking index, and correlations vary from one coalfield to another. Callcott^ has suggested a caking quality index calculated from the re'sults of one or more of these tests.

In general, coals with high caking qualities have proved most useful in coMng blends because in many cases they are not only good coking coals- when carbonized alone but they can accept reasonable percentages of poorer coking coals

For unknown Australian coals a tentative classification into prime, medium, poor, or non-coking is made according, to Table 3; however, coking tests are necessary before such classifications can be confirmed and for this purpose the most-suitable equipment is a test coke oven.

A. USE OF TEST OVEN

The design of test ovens is.-usually a compromise. The desire to reproduce battery" conditions influences a choice toward relatively large ovens. On the other hand, laboratory facilities place a limit on the amount of coal that can be handled (usually less than -g- - 1 ton), and test coal may only be available in small amounts. These factors influence a choice toward smaller ovens.

Because only small -amounts of most new coal samples are available (commonly bore cores),:B.HvP^: Central Research Laboratories first designed a 16-6 15 lb test oven; this has sincebeen superseded by •"Scufo",' an oven of 7 cu.ft. capacity.5 In Scufo approximately 50 kg of test coal (full charge) or 25 kg (half.charge) is coked. Sufficient coke is produced to enable tumbler drum tests and other tests to be performed, A. feature of Scufo is that almost unidirectional heat transfer is obtained from the side walls by the use of special insulating techniques for the top, bottom, and ends of the charge. The oven thus closely simulates a small section of a full-size coke oven.

4.1. Correlation of Scufo with Batteries

Besides using a variety of blends, the coke-oven batteries at the Newcastle, Port Kembla, and Whyalla steelworks use differing charge and coking conditions (e.g. charge particle size, moisture content, charge density, and coking time). Hence it was necessary to operate Scufo under different con­ ditions in order to obtain correlations with the three centres. Correlations were established by the following method.

For each centre, a weekly sample of the battery feed was taken for a Scufo charge which was prepared to the same charge density as measured on the battery. The Scufo flue temperature was adjusted until a temperature was established for which the time taken for the centre of the charge to reach 9O0°C (tnQQ) was the same as the corresponding time measured on the battery. The A.S.T.M. "stability" and "hardness" factors of the cokes were determined and compared with the same indices of the corresponding blast-furnace cokes. Small adjustments were then made to charge densities and flue temperatures in order to improve the correlations obtained (see Table J+)»

The standard deviations for reproducibilities of individual oven results are as follows:

A.S.T.M. stability factor: ± ^% A.S.T.M. hardness factor : ± 0.3$ Coke yield : ± 0.7% These figures include errors in charge preparation, coking, and coke testing.

Both the reproducibility and the deviations from 1:1 agreement in the correlations are considered quite acceptable and indicate that the oven can be used to make valid predictions about the effects of introducing new coals or charging battery or charge conditions.

Scufo can also be. used to predict battery parameters. These include coke yield, time required for coking, and, from these, a productivity index.

4.2. Coke Yield

The j&eld of dry coke from dry coal is related to the volatile matter of the blend, and it is broadly accepted that each coal of a blend contributes independently to the total solids yield. The effects of flue temperature, coking time, and other variables are generally minor.

Fig. 1 shows the relation- between yield and charge volatile matter on • a dry basis (v) for Scufo. The equation is:

Yield $ =96.1 -0.75V

It is difficult to measure accurately the yield of dry coke on a battery, and so few data are available relating Scufo coke yields to battery coke yields. 16-7

However, it is probable that an average coke yield obtained from several Scufo tests is more reliable than measurements attempted during battery trials of a new blend.

A.3. Coking Time

Coking is effectively complete when there is no longer evidence of tarry off-gases ("green gas"), and in practice this requires minimum coke temperatures of about 925°C. A convenient measure of coking time is the number of hours elapsed between charging and the attainment of a central plane temperature of 900°C (hereafter t^0o)•

The value of tnQQ depends on the moisture content of the coal, the charge density, the heat conduction properties of the coal, the oven chamber width, the flue temperature, and the oven wall thickness. The coking time is a measure of the overall heating rate of the charge and it can affect coke strength indices and coke size.

A* A- Productivity

The productivity of a coke-oven battery will be increased by increases in coke yield and by decreases in coking time. (In practice, yield could be in­ creased by using lower-volatile coals and coking time could be decreased by charging partly or completely dried coal or preheated coal or by raising flue temperatures.) Thus the ratio of percentage coke yield to tcjoo may be used as a productivity index. For Scufo, this index has been found to be related to coal volatile matter (v) and charge moisture content (m) by the equation:

Productivity index = 7.53 - 0.063v-0.028m(io.35)

This index is meaningful only for normal methods of preparation of charges. A possibility exists of increasing productivity by significantly changing the charge density - for example, by briquetting part of all of the . charge. If a mixture of briquettes and normal coal feed is charged, the charge density is increased and hence more coke will be produced per oven. However, the coking time also increases and any gain in productivity is likely to be small. If briquettes only axe charged, the presence of voids reduces coking time but less coke is produced per oven. However, experiments in Scufo with briquetted charges have shown that coke quality from poorer coking coals can be improved markedly by such techniques. This accords with European experience with stamped charges.

5. FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS IN COKE MAKING

5.1. Conventional Coking

Two major developments now undergoing trials overseas could influence the future of conventional coke-making in Australia. These are (i) preheating of coal charges, and (2) increases in oven flue temperatures permitted by the use of improved refractory materials.

In preheating, charges may either be merely dried (preheated to approx­ imately 100°C) or preheated to temperatures up to 300°C or more. .This may be accomplished either by suspension of crushed coal in a stream of hot gas or by fluid!zation techniques. The important effects of preheating are a reduction in coking time by up to 50$ and changes in the physical properties of the coke. The magnitude of both these effects depends largely on the type of. 16-8 coal used. Present indications are that the increased capital cost of such installations might be approximately balanced by the smaller operating cost due to increased oven productivity. Thus future work may show that the major advantage of these techniques is their ability to produce good-quality coke from blends which would be classed as poorly coking by present standards.

It has been shown that batteries can be operated using flue temperatures exceeding 1500°C, over 100 degC higher than in present normal practice.' Such temperatures place heavy demands on refractories and on the organization of battery operating schedules, since the cycle time (time between two consecutive charging operations of one oven) can be reduced from 14-15 hr to 11 hr or less. Large increases in oven productivity may thus be obtained, and further increases may be gained by reduction of the oven wall thickness, which increases the rate of heat transfer through the wall. These techniques also affect coke quality; the size range of the coke is narrowed (this would accord with modern blast­ furnace requirements), while the effect on coke strength may or may not be favourable, depending on the coals used.

It is still too early to predict the impact of these new developments on Australian coke-making, but it appears that their acceptance in any country will largely depend on the types of coal available and their cost.

5.2. New Coking Processes

The fact that the conventional coking process has several serious limitations has in recent years stimulated research in several countries on new methods of making biast-furnace coke. The most important of these limitations are: (1) The need for specific coal types, supplies of which are either non­ existent or being rapidly depleted in many parts of the world. (2) The disadvantages of a batch process and of heating a large mass of insulating material by an external heat source. (3) The variability and lack of control of the size and shape of the product.

The B.H.P. Co. Ltd. is currently building a pilot plant to produce 100 tons per day of a blast-furnace fuel to be known as "Auscoke". This con­ tinuous process will convert "poor" or "non-coking" coal of suitable properties into coked briquettes of selected size.

Overseas, pilot plants have already produced "form-cokes" in quantities sufficient for short blast-furnace trials. However, at present the future of these new processes is still uncertain since two or three different types of process are being tested, and so far, blast-furnace trials have not been oh a sufficiently large scale to be conclusive.

6. ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The authors thank The Broken Hill Proprietary Co. Ltd. for permission to contribute this paper. 16-9

7. REFERENCES

(1) CALLCOTT, T.G. The bases for new blast furnace fuels. Proc. Eighth Commonwealth Min. Metall. Congr., Melbourne, 1965 (Ed. J.T. Woodcock, R.T. Madigan, and R.G. Thomas), vol. 6, pp. 933-953-

(2) CALLCOTT, T.G. Indices for coke tenacity, coal rank, and caking quality. B.-H.P. Tech. Bull. 1969, 12, 3 and 10.

(3) BROWN, N.A., BELCHER, C.B., and CALLCOTT, T.G. Composition, determination, and effects of mineral matter in N.S.W. coke making coals. Paper 16, Inst. Fuel Symposium, Melbourne, May, 1964.

(4) HOWARD, HENRY C. Chap. 9 in "Chemistry of Coal Utilization", Suppl. Vol. (Ed. H.H. Lowry) John Wiley and Sons, New York and London, 1963).

(5) CALLCOTT, T.G. Coking with a seven cubic foot capacity coke oven. Proc. A'sian Inst. Min. Metall., 1970 (233), March, 1970.

(6) HENDERSON, J.B. Carbon consumption by sulphur in the blast furnace. B.H.P. Tech. Bull.. 1968, 12, 3 and 23.

(7) GUHR, H. Practical experience in the field of increased productivity of coke ovens by using higher temperatures. Paper 3* Symposium on "New Methods and Developments in the Field of Coke Production", Luxembourg, April 1970. 16-10

TABLE 1. TYPICAL BLENDS USED AT COKE-MAKING CENTRES

Newcastle Steelworks •\ Coals Lambton Sub-Group* Bulli Seam, Coals Meti*opolitan Colliery Percentage of blend 39 11 Ash, %d.b. 11.5 12.6 Volatile matter, %d.b. 33,3 17.6 Crucible swelling number 6 1 2 Gray-King coke type F-G D Classification 632(2) (A.S. K184-1969) 311(3) Port Kemfala Steelworks Coal Bulli Seam Wbngawilli Seam+ Percentage of blend 55-65 35-45 Ash, %d.b. 10*3 13.5 Volatile matter, $d.b. 21,2 23.7 Crucible swelling number 5 8 Gray-King coke type G G1 5 Classification 4A33(2) 4B43(3) (A.S. K184-1969) Whyalla Steelworks Coal Southern Coal? Borehole Seam, Stockrington Colliery Percentage of blend 50-60 40-50 Ash, %d.b. 11.4 11.7 Volatile matter, 56d.b. 23.0 34.4 Crucible swelling number 7-7$ 5 Gray-King coke type G3"G/ F Classification 4B43(2) 632(2) (A.S. K184-1969) Includes Borehole, Victoria Tunnel, Dudley, and Young Wallsend seams and minor proportions of purchased high-volatile coals. + From various collieries - typical average properties quoted Blend received from Southern Coalfield, .N.S.W. 16-11

TABLE 2. AVERAGE STRENGTH INDICES OF AUSTRALIAN BLAST-FURNACE COKES

-_. Newcastle Port Kembla Whyalla "Excellent" Coke Coke Coke Cokes

A.S.T.M. stability factor 36 51 47 55 min. A.S.T.M. hardneas factor 66 66 62 69 min, Irsid 20 index (I20) 69 76 75 min. Irsid 10 index (I-JO) 20 20

Reliable values not available.

TABLE 3. CRITERIA FOR TENTATIVE CLASSIFICATION OF UMNOWN COALS (ALL FIVE SPECIFICATIONS MUST BE SATISFIED)

Prime Medium Poor Non- Coking Coking Coking Coking

Volatile matter 26 max. 33 max. no no (% d.m.m.f.) specification specification Vitrinite {%) 40 min. 35 ndn. no no specification specification Crucible swellin g 6|- min. 4 min. 1-g- min. less than 1-g- number Gray-King G min. D min. B min. less than B coke type 1 Audibert-Arnu zero or must be contraction contraction dilatation positive some only only dilatation

1

TABLE 4. SCUFO/BATTERY CORRELATIONS - INITIAL SERIES Newcastle Port Kembla Whyalla Average Average Average for for for batteries Scufo batteries Scufo batteries Scufo

Total moisture (%) 6.9 6.9 8.1 8.1 6.1 6.1 Wet charge density (lb/ft-*) 49.7 52.0 51.0 54.0 51.1 50.0 Flue temperature (°C) 1390 1250 1420 1275 1400 1230 Coking time (hr) 15.0 14.9 13.9 13.9 14.1 13.9 Time to 900°C (t9o0.), (hr) 13.9 13.4 • 13.2 12.7 13.2 13.0 Average" A.S.T.M.' stability factor 38.0 40.2 51.5 51.8 48.4 50.0 Average A.S..T.M. hardness factor 67.1 69.4 65;9 69.1 63.2 64.9 16-12

80

•V .- 75 - % •• •• e • • •• I m • •• • • • 1 • 4 vV » • £ 70—- • > 1 .. l? •

65 . 1 . . . . 1 . , • • I . . . ". . • • 15 20 25 30 35 Coal Volatile Matter; (»/.d.b.)« FIG.1: COKE YIELD AND COAL VOLATILE MATTER FOR SEVEN CUBIC FOOT TEST OVEN. 17-1

PAPER 17

* GENERAL REVIEW OF COAL EXPLORATION POSSIBILITIES IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA

By: HECTOR J. WARD*, ROBERT PICKERING"1", and P. S. CHATURVEDir'

SUMMARY

Part 1 of the paper deals with the coal exploration possibilities in the sediments of the Perth Basin and in erosional depressions in the Darling Ranges, while Part 2 is an attempt to analyse the possibilities of finding coal in the Permian of the Fitzroy Basin of Western Australia.

No commercial deposits have yet been discovered in the Perth Basin, bub the possible presence of commercial coal deposits has been indicated by drill­ hole cuttings. The only commercial coalfield in Western Australia is in the Darling Ranges, at Collie, where the coal measures occur in sediments deposited in an erosional depression in Precambrian rocks. There is a similar basin with coal measures at Wilga, but the part so far tested has not yielded commercial deposits.

In Part 2 the possible coal-bearing potential of the Permian sediments in the Fitzroy Basin'is assessed by making a comparison of the region with the Permian sediments of other Gondwanaland countries. Correlations show that many similarities exist between the sediments of the different countries. The possibility of commercial coal deposits occurring in the Fitzroy Basin is strengthened by these correlations, but further drilling is needed to increase present knowledge of environmental conditions before successful exploration can be achieved.

Managing Director, Geotechnics (Aust.) Pty. Ltd. Assistant to Managing Director, Geotechnics (Aust.) Pty. .Ltd.' Lecturer, Lucknow University, India. 17-2 PART 1. THE PERTH BASIN

1.1. GENERAL

The Perth Basin is a narrow trough of sediments extending 600 miles north from the south coast of Western Australia near Augusta, to Shark Bay in. the north. The eastern boundary of the basin is defined by the Darling Fault Zone, which separates the Perth Basin sediments from the igneous and metamorphic rocks of the Western Australian Precambrian Shield.

Geophysical work carried out in the search for oil has revealed that the sediments of the Perth Basin attain a maximum thickness of some 30,000 ft and range in age from Lower Palaeozoic to Recent.

Numerous water, coal, and oil exploration bores have been drilled in the Perth Basin. Coal has been intersected in some of these bores in rocks of Permian, Jurassic, and Cretaceous age.

1.2. PERMIAN COAL MEASURES

Coal measures have been found in Permian sediments in the northern part of the Perth Basin at Irwin River and Eradu. No other occurrences have been reported.

Exposed coal seams were originally discovered in the Irwin River valley and i^ere later traced over a strike length of about 30 miles by exploratory drilling. The coal is in thin seams, maximum thickness 5 ft, which where tested do not improve in grade at depth. The coal, which has an ash content of 10 - 20% and maidmum calorific value of about 6,500 kcal/kg with an average of about 5,500 kcal/kg on an "as received" basis, is classed as- sub-bituminous. The grade of the coal in the original outcrop area is higher than yet found else­ where in the area.

The Eradu coal seams are correlated with those at Irwin River and are tentatively referred to as being part of the Irwin River Coal Measures. The Eradu coal is of lower grade than that at Irwin River, but the maximum seam thickness is greater (17.5 ft). Tests by the Government Mines Department and by Western Mining Corporation both seemingly led to the conclusion that the deposit was not of commercial significance.

1.3. JURASSIC COAL MEASURES

Jurassic sediments are widely distributed in the Perth Basin: the best outcrop is found in the Hill River area, about 120 miles north of Perth.

Deposition of sediments is considered to have continued in the Perth Basin from the Lower Jurassic to the Lower Cretaceous without any major time breaks. The sequence is continental except for a thin marine intercalation of Middle Jurassic Age and an alternating marine and continental sequence of Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceous age. No boundary has been defined between the Jurassic and Cretaceous sediments, and consequently the Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceous sediments are treated together in the following section.

The Lower Jurassic formation known to contain coal measures is the Cockleshell Gully Formation, a sequence of fine to medium-grained sandstones and siltstones having a maximum thickness of about 7,000 ft.

Coal measures were first found when West Australian Petroleum Pty. Ltd. !'/-;>

intersected 22 seams totalling 4-0 ft between 6373 and 64-4-1 ft in Eneabba No. 1 oil exploration bore. Following this discovery, an attempt was made to find the seams at a shallow depth by drilling a series of holes at Hill River where the Cockleshell Gully sandstone outcrops. However, it was found that the coal seams intersected in the holes by virtue of their grade and narrowness are not economic occurrences. The coal high in volatiles contains about 34- - 39% fixed carbon and moderate ash.

Coal has since been intersected in the Cockleshell Gully sandstone, in a Government water bore (Byford No. 1) about 30 miles south-east of Perth, and in West Australian Petroleum Pty. Ltd's Pinjarra No. 1 oil exploration bore.

The coal in the Byford bore was intersected between 135 ft and 600 ft, and is reported as being pockets, seams, and laminae of coalj but the report gives no indications of grade or thickness. Coal in the Pinjarra No. 1 bore was intersected between 489 - 394-6 and 5900 - 6500 ft and was described by West Australian Petroleum Pty. Ltd., as 'black, bright, low grade and woody in parts, with no thick seams occuring.1 Coal seams occur in sediments of the Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceous Yarragadee Formation and Capel River Group. The two formations are correlated on micro-floral evidence and are probably the same formation given different names in different areas.

Coal seams have been reported in the formations from the following water bores:- Laporte Nos. 3 and 4- (near Bunbury); Eaton No. 1 (near Bunbury); Capel Town Bore No. 1; Milne Street No. 1 (Busselton). Coal occurs also in the Yarragadee Formation outcropping at Fly Brook, near the south-east corner of the Perth Basin.

The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceous coal is generally lignitic or very low-grade sub-bituminous, and is found only in thin seams.

1.4-. DARLING RANGES

At Collie and Wilga there are basin-like depressions in the Precambrian granitic rocks filled with Permian and younger sediments. The sediments in both basins contain Permian coal measures. Whereas the coal measures in the Collie Basin are economic and have been Western Australia's sole source of coal throughout the existence of the State, the Wilga Basin coal measures have yet to be fully evaluated. Gravity surveys and drilling have shown that possible commercially viable tonnages of coal exist. To date the quality of Wilga coal and its distance from markets have precluded its usage.

The basins in the Precambrian basement are erosional structures, all trending south-east. The parallel trend of the basins indicates a major structural control, possibly shear faulting. Normal and glacial erosion along these planes of weakness may have resulted in the formation of basin structures in the granite which were subsequently filled with Permian and younger sediments. This process could have occurred in other areas of the Darling Plateau, and so there appears to be a good possibility of other similar basins existing in the region. This possibility is being investigated.

A sedimentary basin was defined by gravity work carried out by Geo-, technics (Aust.) Pty.Ltd. in 1967 at Darkin Swamp, and was subsequently drilled. - Drilling revealed a sedimentary basin 218 ft deep, the oldest sediments inter­ sected being of;; Eocene age, with no "coal. - . . 17-4 The Darkin Basin continues 15 miles south-east towards Mt. Kokeby. Three Government drill holes in the Mt. Kokeby area drilled in 1917 to test for coal and oil encountered no coal and bottomed in granite basement at a maximum depth of 226 ft. The report on these drill holes stated that a maximum of 350 ft of sediments could be expected in the basin in the Mt. Kokeby area.

1.5. CONCLUSIONS

1.5.1. Coal Prospects of the Perth Basin

Present indications on the grade of Permian coal already found, and the lack of any other near-surface occurrences of Permian rocks in the Perth Basin, indicate that any prospecting would be unlikely to- be successful.

On present knowledge, the possibility of economic coal being found in the Jurassic rocks is remote. The coal seams intersected south of Perth seem to be poorer in quality and thickness than those at Hill River, north of Perth, and hence any explorations for Jurassic coal should be concentrated north of Perth. However, exploration is not recommended, as the coal from Eneabba No. 1 from 6,400 ft, which should be of better quality than any near-surface occurrence, is not of high enough grade for steel making, particularly because of the high volatile content.

From reports on this coal, exploration is contra-indicated because the coal is mainly lignitic and in thin seams. The coal measures may be of Lower Jurassic age, but are more likely to be Upper Jurassic or Lower Cretaceous, as indicated by other known water bores in surrounding areas.

Prospecting is not advised at present, but interest should be maintained in the development of current prospecting activities.

1.5.2. Coal Prospects of the Darling Ranges

The presence of another Permian coal basin similar to the Collie basin is quite possible. Regional gravity surveys are most likely to reveal areas- favourable for detailed exploration.

Surface geological and gravity surveys followed by exploratory drilling should be continued^in order to locate and evaluate any further possible sedimentary basins.

PART 2. AN ANALYSIS OF THE POSSIBILITIES OF FINDING COAL IN THE PERMIAN OF THE FITZROY BASIN (W.A.)

2.1. INTRODUCTION

The majority of the coal seams known from Permian sediments of the Gondwanaland countries were formed both in continental freshwater and paralic environments. During the Lower Permian, coal measures were formed in all the depressions of Gondwanaland. During the Upper Permian, deposition of coal ceased in South America and Africa but became stronger in India and Australia.

In view of the vast extent of the West Australian Permian, it is desirable that a correlation of the possible coal-bearing formations be made with their counterparts in the Gondwanaland countries. Receiit advances in palynolbgical, palaebbotanical, and palaeontological investigations have made correlations within each country possible, as well as allowing general correlation of Permian sediments between the Gondwanaland countries. Facies variations pose problems 17-5 in correlation, particularly when dealing with sediments of paralic environments and isolated continental depositional troughs. The depositional environments of the Permian sediments of Gondwanaland countries in general, and of Australia in particular, require more detailed studies before precise correlation can be made satisfactorily.

The Permian sediments of the Fitzroy Basin are shown to be similar in many respects to the established coal-bearing Permian formations in other Gondwanaland areas, and consequently the possibility is here explored of coal occurring in the region.

The palaeogeography and palaeoclimates of the Permian period in the region are discussed, and the desirability emphasized of delineating marginal shelf regions, deltaic regions, and continental basins. The available information emphasizes the need for more exploration and fact gathering before the Fitzroy Basin can be reasonably abandoned as a coal exploration target.

2.2. STRATIGRAPHY

The Fitzroy Basin, which forms the northern part of the extensive Canning Basin, contains some 11,000 metres of Palaeozoic and Mesozoic sediments, resting on a Pre-Cambrian basement. To date, detailed studies in the Fitzroy Basin have been made with respect to petroleum exploration, and have been particularly directed to the depositional environments of the Devonian and Ordovician sediments. Environmental studies of the Permian sediments of the Fitzroy Basin are almost totally lacking.

The Fitzroy Basin contains Permian sediments which extend into the Canning Basin under the cover of Mesozoic rocks. The lowest Permian unit, the Grant Formation, uncomformably overlies Carboniferous Laurel Beds followed by the remaining Permian succession, namely the Poole Sandstone, the Noonkanbah Form­ ation, and the Liveringa Formation. A correlation^ of Australian Permiaii sediments with the standard sequence of the Ural Mountains and the Russian platform assigns:- (a) The Nura Nura Member of the Poole Sandstone together with the Grant Formation to the Sakmarian; (b) the upper part of the Poole Sandstone and the Noonkanbah formation to the Artinskian; (c) the Light Jack and Balgo Members of the Liveringa Formation to the Hungarianj and (d) the Condren and the Hardman Members of the Liveringa Formation to Kazanian and Tartarian respectively.

The Grant Formation is characterized by the large thicknesses of sand­ stone, conglomerate, tillite, silts tone, -ind varves recorded through the Fitzroy Basin. Most of the rock types are glacial to fluvioglacial in origin. No complete section of the formation is exposed, and the total thickness so far recorded is 24-38 metres, as encountered in WAPET Bore No. 1V

The Nura Nura Member of the Poole Sandstone consists of calcareous quartz ;, sandstone and sandy limestone with rich marine fauna,, which can be correlated with the Fossil Cliff Formation of the Irwin River Basin, and the Callytharra Form­ ation of the Carnarvon Basin.

The upper part of the Poole Sandstone has a variable thickness in the basin, and is made up of thin-bedded fine micaceous quartz sandstones with intercalated siltstone and shale. The formation thickens to the north-west. Variations in the formation thickness may be attributed to structural factors or to the shape of the depositional basin.

.The- Noonkanbah Formation consists of fine, sandy and calcareous, siltstones 17-6

interbedded with thin shales. The general setting indicates a shallow-water depositional environment along the eastern part of the basin, which deepened westwards. The formation contains the richest faunal assemblage known from the Permian of the Fitzroy Basin.

The Light Jack Member of the Liveringa Formation and its equivalent Balgo Member consists of greywacke and fine slightly micaceous sandstone, in many places richly fossiliferous and containing limonitic nodules.

The plant-bearing Condren Member of the Liveringa Formation2 consists of thin-bedded micaceous sandstone with thin coal seams. Its age is Upper Kazanian-Tartarian.

The Hardman Member consists predominantly of thin-bedded friable fine to medium micaceous silty sandstone. A rich assemblage of marine fossils is known from the basal beds of this member. A continental freshwater facies is not known, but cannot be excluded, as insufficient evidence is available in regard to facies changes.

2.3. CORRELATION

Notwithstanding faunal and floral marker horizons, facies changes render difficult the correlation of the Permian sediments. WalkomP indicated that the Permian flora of Western Australia is characterized by those genera which are typical of Gondwana floras in India, South Africa, and South America, but it does contain a number of genera which show similarity with the Permian flora of Shanshi, and a few types showing affinities with the Upper Palaeozoic flora in Europe. Balme and Evans have correlated the Permian sediments of Australia with other Gondwana countries on the basis of spores- and pollens. In 1964 Balrne^- distinguished the Australian Permian by means of the Striatites microflora. According to Walkom the change from the Rhacopteris Flora to the Glossopteris Flora is taken as marking the base of the Permian and the extinction of the Glossopteris flora, and is regarded as the end of the Permian in Australia.

Kremp,-> while discussing the correlations between early Permian.sediments of northern and southern continents, has commented unfavourably on the validity of using marker horizons for correlation. For example, Pseudoswagerina for the marine facies, and Callipteria conforta for the continental facies, were regarded as the time equivalents, and in view of their world-wide correlation they were considered as the marker horizons for the Permo-Carboniferous stratigraphy. To support his contention, Kremp quoted the discovery in the Donetz Basin of the U.S.S.R. that these continental and marine fossils do not coincide but were separated- by 1900 metres of sediments, which would represent a depositional period of several million years. Likewise, in Western Australia, the correlation made to date of the marine and freshwater Permian of the various basins by marker horizons could lead to erroneous results because of the paucity of evidence. 6 Likharev and Miklukhov-Maclay stated recently: "In determination of the strata of the Permian, it should be borne in mind that during this period the Eastern Hemisphere contained northern temperate and frigid (Euro-Siberian), sub-tropical and tropical (Caucasus-Sinian), and southern temperate and frigid (Australian) regions. The continued existence of uniform conditions in these regions resulted in the formation in each of them of peculiar faunitic and florisitic associations."

Most of the Lepidodendroid forests, which provided the material for coal formation, had luxuriant growth in sub-tropical and tropical climates. 17-7

During the Damuda period in India, as in the other coal measure periods of Gondwana, the climate was tropical. The floral similarity between the Damuda Series of India and the Artinskian-Tartarian succession .of the Fitzroy Basin would indicate that at least a part of the Permian sequence in Western Australia was deposited in sub-tropical and tropical climates. Occurrence of Lepidodendroid Stems in the Poole Sandstone would further support this contention.

The glacial and fluvioglacial Grant Formation of the Fitzroy "Basin, which is equivalent in age to the other basal tillite formations of Western Australia and New South Wales, has micro floral assemblage strikingly similar to the Talchir Series of India, and possibly the Dwyka Series of South Africa. The continental facies is mixed in places with a shallow marine facies, such as in the Lyons Group of the Carnarvon Basin and the Allandale-Lochinvar Formation of the Dalwood Group in the Lower Hunter Basin of New South Wales. According to Balme, the upper part of the Grant Formation of the Fitzroy Basin may "be correlated with the Holmwood Shale of the Perth Basin. These are comparable to the Talchir Shales of the Talchir Series of India, and the upper shales of the Dwyka Series of South Africa, which at places are known to contain uneconomic coal layers.

Overlying the fluvioglacial formations is a thin Eurydesma rich marine intercalation found in the upper part of the Lyons Group and the Umaria Marine bed of India.' This is a widespread horizon whose contemporaneity has been well established in South Africa, India, and Australia. In the Fitzroy Basin, the Nura Nura Member may be the possible equivalent.

The fauna and flora of the lower Permian are widespread and easily identifiable, but higher in the Permian succession different nuclei of floral and faunal evolutions developed prior to the final break-up of Gondwanaland. The floral assemblages which developed thereafter had distinctive elements. Even so, there are broad similarities of flora and fauna in the Gondwanaland. In the Laurasia, which was separated from the Gondwanaland by the Tethys sea, there was development of distinctive elements, and altogether different floras and faunas evolved.

Available evidence suggests that the upper part of the Poole Sandstone, which has some known thin coal seams, is equivalent to the Irwin River Coal Measures; the Collie Formation; the Muswellbrook and Greta Coal Measures of New South Wales; a part of the Coal Measures of the Barakar Series of India; and the Middle Coal Measures of the Ecca Series of South Africa. These freshwater formations were probably developed simultaneously in most parts of Gqndwanaland,, and have yielded commercially valuable coal seams. However, some of the low- lying continental areas which were ideal repositories for coal formation were submerged during the transgression of the Permian seas, thus developing vast, shallow-water marine sequences. In Western Australia such shallow marine sedimerr&s seem to be the Wooramel Group of the Carnarvon Basin, the paralic facies of\the High Cliff Sandstone, and the Caryngia Formation of the Perth Basin. The\lower part of the Branxton Formation of the Sydney Basin and the Amb Formation\of Pakistan could have been similarly deposited.

A marine sequence represented by the Noorikanbah Formation and the Light Jack and Balgo Memb&rs of the Liveringa Formation ioverlies the Poole Sandstone, which is equivalent tbxthe Byro Group in the Carnarvon Basin. The Noonkabah Formation and the lower >art of the Liveringa Formation could be correlated with the Branxton Formation^of the Upper Hunter Basin and the lower part of the Maitland Group in the LowersHunter basin, which again could be equivalent to the upper part of the Amb-Formation and the lower part of the Waragal Form- on ation (Pakistan). The freshwater facies are represented by the upper part of 17-8

the Collie Formation, the Barakar Stage of Peninsular India, and the Ecca Series of South Africa. The Branxton Formation of the Sydney Basin contains some glacial units indicating the continental nature before marine inundation.

The non-marine Condren Member of the Liveringa Formation with a few known thin coal seams is equivalent in age to the paralic Kennedy Group of the Carnarvon Basin, the Wagina Sandstone of the Perth Basin, and the Cardiff and Collieburn Formations of the Collie Basin. In New South Wales no freshwater facies is equivalent to the Condren Member, which is correlated with the shallow marine Mulbring and Murree Formations.* The Pakistan equivalent is the Waragal Limestone. In India the freshwater facies could be correlated with the Barren Measures, which are completely devoid of coal seams. However, it seems that the Condren Member could possibly be correlated with the lower part of the Janiganj Series, which is a major coal-bearing formation in Peninsular India.

The dhallow marine Hardman Member of the Liveringa Formation is comparable to the marine Chidru Formation of the Saluch Group (Pakistan) and the Lower Beaufort Series of South Africa. In New South Wales the equivalents of the Hardman Member are the Singleton Coal Measure of the Upper Hunter, and the Newcastle and Tomago Coal Measures of the Lower Hunter, both of which are fresh­ water facies with rich coal seams. The upper part of the freshwater Raniganj Stage, which includes the coal measures, is the equivalent of the upper part of the Liveringa Formation (Hardman Member).

The broad correlations suggest that:

(a) The Poole Sandstone of the Fitzroy Basin is equivalent to the coal- bearing Ecca Series of South Africa and the Barakar stage of India, as well as the Greta and Muswellbrook Coal Measures of New South Wales; the Collie and Irwin River Coal Measures of the Perth Basin (W.A.)j ami the One Gum Formation of the Carnarvon Basin (W.A.).

(b) The Upper Liveringa Formation of the Fitzroy Basin is reasonably correlatable with the coal-bearing Raniganj Stage of •n-^ Indian Damuda series; the Singleton, Newcastle, and Tomago Coal Measures of New South Wales; and the economically valuable Cardiff and Collieburn Horizons of the Collie Basin.

2.4. SEDIMENTATION MP PALAEOGEOGRAPHY

Palaeogeographic reconstruction is one of the sadly neglected aspects of* the study of the Permian of Western Australia, and particularly of the Permian sediments in the Fitzroy Basin. The sedimentary environments have not been fully investigated, the basin configuration for the entire Palaeozoic is not well established, and the palaeoclimates have not been fully interpreted. Already exploration in the Fitzroy Basin has revealed greater thickness and quality of coal than previously contemplated.

Lack of subsurface information has limited construction of the relevant palaeogeographic maps of the W.A. Permian. Such a map prepared in 1961 by Ahmad,° showing isopach form lines and facies variations in the various Permian basins, has to be drastically modified in the light of new information. Sprigg^ presented a useful palaeogeographic map based on data obtained from the Australian oil search programme. The palaeogeographic reconstruction of the northwest parts of Australia by Audley-Charles1° differs from that of Sprigg.

g ..••..•. :•..,••: Ahmad reconstructed the palaeo geography of the Permian of Australia and • India to develop the palaeogeographic setting of Gondwana in order to explain the Continental Drift Theory. He concluded'that, despite the lack of detailed . • 17-V information, the form assumed by the isopachs of the Permian sediments of Aus­ tralia is similar to that of Peninsular India. The seemingly more extensive development of marine sediments in Western Australia is based largely on oil search results, and not on more objective examination. Ahmad established affinities between the Gondwana succession of Peninsular India and the Tasman Geosynclinal region of Australia.

Sprigg's palaeogeographic reconstruction of the Permian of Australia, which follows Ahmad, was made with special reference to oil search. He mentions that the Permian segment of the Gondwana succession is characterized by the Glossopteris-Gangamopteria flora, glacial, glaciomarine, and glaciofluvial sediments, coal measures and cyclothems. The cross continental linkage of the Hunter-Bowen Geosynclinal belt of eastern Australia by way of shallow infra- basins and-intracratonic basins to the graben troughs of the Perth, Carnarvon, Fitzroy, and Bonaparte Basins is envisaged by Sprigg. Furthermore, from the northwest (Kimberley) Province, marine tongues at times linked through from the Neocontinent of Peninsular India into the Canning-Fitzroy and Carnarvon-Perth Basins,

During the Lower Permian in Western Australia, the development of major structural troughs was intensified and extended. Parallel developments in "contiguous" India, Madagascar, and Africa Hre well known. Permian seas temporarily gained access to much of the low-lying continental areas, and in Western Australia such basins could have been the repository of extensive plant accumulation. The glaciofluvial activity of the Lower Permian provided enormous amounts of sediment to the Fitzroy Trough, and thus tended to keep this rapidly subsiding trough filled.

The foregoing considerably strengthens the contention that deltaic and marginal continental areas were present. Such continental freshwater, fluvial, and lacustrine environments would have presented ideal conditions for the formation of coal. It is improbable that such a vast extent of Permian sea in north-western Australia would not have a well-entrenched ancillary drainage system.

Should Sprigg's contention about the extension of the Hunter-Bowen geosynclinal belt across central Australia into the northwest Fitzroy Basin be correct, then areas of coal formation analogous to the established eastern Australian coal measures should be present. As with the Lower Permian, oscil­ lations between marine and terrestrial facies continued in the Upper Permian as well. In the Fitzroy Basin the marine nature of the Upper Permian is conspicuously evidenced by the Hardman Member of the Liveringa Formation. How­ ever, the existence of a freshwater facies is not excluded.

Referring to the Grant Formation of the Canning Basin, Sprigg points out that its sedimentary deposits were dominated by conglomerates, sands, shales, glaciofluvial accumulations, and coal measures. This indicates the existence of tropical and sub-tropical climates soon after the fluvio-glacial period.

The Upper Permian palaeogeographic map of the \7orld prepared by Strakhov' shows the existence of coal-bearing deposits in the Fitzroy region (W.A.), in addition to the other known coal measure areas.

Further detailed sedimentological investigations of the Permian sediments of the Fitzroy Basin must be made in border to settle; the question of the ex­ istence of cyclothems. The cyclic sedimentation in the known coal measure areas, is well established and has great significance. Some of the deep bores drilled 17-10 for petroleum exploration in the Fitzroy Basin indicate the cyclic nature of sedimentation.

The existence of varvites and glacial tillites at the base of the Permian succession in Australia shows similarity of the beginning of climatic cycles with the other Gondwanaland countries. The tropical and sub-tropical climates following the cold climate of the basal Permian would be adequate for the development of dense vegetation.

Audley-Charles's study''0 of the environmental setting of the Permian sedi­ ments in North-Western Australia-Timor regions presents diverse conclusions. He contends that the northern margin of Teichert'c "Westralian leosyncline" must have been situated in the general vicinity of what is today the southern edge of the Sunda shelf.

He believes that the autochthonous Permian rocks of Timor were closely related to the Kimberley region. This evidence, which is still to be confirmed by palaeomagnetic data, would tend to counter all the established facts of correlation of the Permian of Western Australia with the eastern part of India.

Recent aeromagnetic surveys in the offshore area of northwest Australia revealed the presence of a furrow in the magnetic basement, which Veevers'^ has called the Cartier Furrow. It is bounded on its south-eastern side by the offshore Bonaparte Gulf Basin in the north, by the offshore Canning Basin in the south, and in between by a prism c-f non-magnetic rocks which thin towards the south-east. This extension conforms to the Fitzroy Basin. Unconformity between the Permian and the overlying Mesozoic rocks is reflected in palaeomagnetic maps and shows an. increasing thickness of Mesozoic sediments towards the northwest. In view of this, it would appear that the Carnarvon,. Canning* Fitzroy, and Bonaparte Gulf Basins were the digitations of the deeper Permian seas of the Cartier Furrow.

In summary, Veevers points out that sagging along the marginal and internal faults continued at rates which were greatest during the late Carboniferous and early Permian in the Fitzroy depression of the north Canning Basin.

Thus the basin configuration was seemingly generally similar to its counterpart in India, i.e. a sinking basin followed by penecontemporaneous faulting.

Furthermore, he points out three broad environments in the Canning and Bonaparte Gulf Basins: (a) Epicontinental shallow marine shelves with shallow (platform) and deeper (basinal) parts in the late Devonian, (b) Paralic plat­ forms, intermittently continental and marine, affected by glaciation in the early Permian, (c) Continental platforms from the late Ordovician to the early middle Ordovician.

These are reasonab^le_-.genG-raiizations. The sweeping paralic platforms, intermittently marine and continental during the Permian, deserve greater attention from the point of view of coal exploration. Therefore a search for continental freshwater facies close to the paralic environments is imperative before the existence of coal in the Fitzroy Basin Permian sediments can be denied.

2.5. COAL PROSPECTS OF THE FITZROY BASIN

Evans, V while agreeing that most coal seams were formed from enormous quantities of terrestrial vegetation debris, observed that marine plant life 17-11 sometimes thrived to such an extent as to yield sufficient debris to form thin beds of coal. It seems improbable that the known coal seams in the Fitzroy trough of W.A. had the foregoing mode of origin.

Both the "drift", and the "growth in situ" theories are regarded as important for coal formation. Evans mentions that some forested swamp lands (the paralic swamps) in Carboniferous times had direct access to the sea, and that these were periodically inundated by marine transgressions as a result of slight changes in the levels of land and sea.

Lepidodendron forests were characterized by enormous trees and dense undergrowth, which provided source material for the formation of coal seams. The strikingly different Glossopteris forests were of stunted'trees. The Glossopteris forests indicated nearness of ice fields, whereas Lepidodendron forests could have developed under warm tropical and sub-tropical conditions.

Lepidodendron forests are now believed to have continuously extended from North America across Britain into Europe and Asia, while the Glossopteris forests covered parts of South America, South Africa, and Australia.

In the Fitzroy Basin, the Permian Poole Sandstone has a flora with the following dominant elements: Glossopteris. Lepidodendron, Stigmaria, and Neoggerathionsis. In the Kazanian part of the Liveringa Formation Glossopter-is occurs. The floral assemblage of the Permian sediments in Western Australia indicates the existence of such forests, which could have provided sufficient material for coal formation.

Thin coal seams in the Fitzroy Basin found under considerable soil cover have been investigated with partially encouraging results. Two coal seams, each 12 - 15 ft thick, have been noted in the lithological log of Samphire Marsh No. 1 in the Canning Basin.

The Poole Sandstone, which has a freshwater facies, could be correlated with the coal-bearing Irwin Eiver Coal Measures and Collie Formation (W.A.); Muswellbrook and Greta Coal Measures (N.S.W.); coal-bearing beds of the Barakar Stage (india)j and the coal—rich Ecca Series (South Africa).

Freshwater and paralic facies of the continental upper part of the Liveringa Formation could be compared with the Singleton Coal Measures, the Newcastle Coal Measures, and the Tomago Coal Measures (N.S.W.), and the coal- bearing Raniganj Series (India).

The ratio of the thickness of coal seam to the sediments in the Raniganj Stage varies from 1:10 to '1:35, while in the Barakar Stage it varies from"1:8 to 1:10. In the Barakar Stage there are 2U seams which are thicker than 3 ft, of which 21 are thicker than 5 ft. The Karagali seam in the Bokaro Coal Field is 130 ft thick.

Even if these large ratios of coal to sediments are not present in the known Permian sediments in Western Australia, it would seem strange if coal seams of economic importance had not been formed on the continental regions separated by the embayments of Permian seas. 17-12

3. REFERENCES

(1 BANKS, M.R., et. al. (in press) "Correlation charts for the Carboniferous, Permian, Triassic, and Jurassic Systems in Australia". Rev. As. Govt., Argentina.

(2 VEEVERS, J.J. (1961). The geology of the Canning Basin, Western Australia. Bur. Min. Resourc. Aust., Bull. No. 60.

(3 WALKOM, A.B. (1938). A brief review of the relationships of the Carboniferous and Permian Floras of Australia. Compte,rendu du deuxieme Congres. pour I'avancement des Etudes de Stratigraphie Carbonifere. Heerlen 1935- U BAIME, B.E. 1964-. The age of the Wagina Sandstone, Irwin River District, Western Australia. Aust. Journ. Sci.. 1964, 27 (3), 82.

(5 KREMP, G.D.W. Correlations between Early Permian sediments of Northern and Southern Continents. In "Antarctic Geology", Proc. of 1st Int. Symp. on Antarctic Geol.t 1964- (North Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam).

(6 LIKHAREV, B.K., and MIKULUKHO-MACLAY. Stratigraphy of the Permian System. XXII Int. Geol. Congr. New Delhi, 1964 Vol. of Abstracts.

(7 DICKINS, J.M., and THOMAS, G.A. (1959). The marine fauna of Lyons Group and the Carrandibby formation of the Carnarvon Basin, Western Australia. Bur. Min. Resources. Aust. Rep. 38> p. 65.

(3 AHMAD, F. Palaeogeography of the Gondwana- Period in Gondwanaland, special reference to India and Australia, and its bearing on the Theory of Continental Drift. Mem. Geol. Surv. India. 1961, vol.90.

(9 SPRIGG, R.C. Palaeo geography of the Australian Permian in relation to oil search. Aust. Pet. Exploration Assoc, 1966, pp. 17-29.

(10 AUDLEY-CHARLES, M.G. Permian palaeo geography of the Northern Australia-Timor region: Palaeogeography, PalaeoclimatoL« PalaeocoL, •1965, 1, 297-305.

(11 STRAKHOV, N.M. "Principles of historical geologyy 1962. Israel Programme for Scientific Translations (Parts I and II).

(12 VEEVERS, J.J. The phanerozoie geological history of north-west Australia. Journ. Geol. Soc. Aust.. 1967, Vx{2), 253-27?.

( 13) EVANS, W.D. "Coal." Abbott Memorial Lecture of the-University of Nottingham, 1950. *:Z3L

2 0<

H- ....

20°

40«

Coal bearing deposits

Platformai boundaries I 17-U

COAL OCCURRENCES

IN THE PERTH BASIN

AND DARLING RANGE AREAS

SCALE IN MILES 0 20 40

REFERENCE

Eradu.Permian coalmeasures. Hj

Irwin River. Permian coal measures. (2

Eneabba N?l. oil bore 40 feet of Lower Jurassic coal in 22 seams.

Hill River bores. Lower Jurassic coal seams. (4J

Byford N? I bore. Lower Jurassic coal at 135! (pj

Pinjarra N?l bore. Lower Jurassic coal measures below 490 feet.

Laporte N? s. 3 ar.d 4 and Eaton N? I. teres. Thin, low grade Lower Cretaceous coal seams,

Milne Street N?l bore. Thin, low grade Lower Cretaceous coal seams. s

Abba River bores. Thin seams of Lower Cretaceous lignite.

Capel N?l bore. Thin, low grade Lower Cretaceous coal seams. ® Fly Brook. Outcrop of lignite in Cretaceous sediments. ., © Wilga Basin. Permian coal measures. ® Collie Basin. Commercial Permian coal measures.

Faults - definite approximate

Roads

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PAPER 18

THE TRANSFORMATION IN COAL TRANSPORT TO AND THROUGH THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE

By: J. B. THOMSON*

SUMMARY

This paper deals with the development of transport facilities servicing coal shipment through the Port of Newcastle. Initially the change in market outlets is dealt with, and then in order, the ships employed, the development of coal shiploading facilities, and the various means of transport to those facilities are discussed. Indications are given of the freight costs incurred during the various phases of transport and some thought is given to future requirements.

1. INTRODUCTION

This paper is not intended as a detailed or complete treatise on the subject, but rather as an outline of the developments in transportation which have already taken place and which could be required in the future to meet the changes and expansions which have taken place in coal production and market outlets, particularly over the past ten years.

When considering the aspects of transportation to and through the Port of Newcastle for export, it is to be borne in mind that there is one essential difference between Newcastle and Australia's other large mineral export ports. This difference being that whilst most of the other ports have dramatically appeared to cater for the currently booming export market, coal was exported from this area as early as 1799 and at the beginning of the Twentieth Century there was a woll established export trade to such places as North, Central and South America, Asia, New Zealand, the Pacific Islands, Europe^ and Africa.

* Manager, Coal & Allied (Sales) Pty. Limited, Newcastle, N.S.W. 18-2

From this time, due to the industrial growth of Australia a substantial locaj market developed and due largely to the influence of two world wars, outlets for Newcastle area coals centred mainly around N.S.W.-, Victoria.,and SouUi Australia. Through the 1960's we saw the exciting discoveries of Natural Gas and developments in the use of L.P.G. with a consequently waning local coal market, which was fortunately accompanied by unprecedented demands from Japan for Australian coals, and in 1969 we saw recommencement of shipments to Europe and in 1970 to South America.

2. THE MARKET

Table 1 gives some statistics showing the changing market for Northern N.S.W. coals which has so influenced transportation methods over the past decade.

From this table will be seen:

(a) The tremendous increase in captive mine supplies to the electricity and steel undertakings. This to a large extent was due to the Vales Point and Munmorah Power Station complexes. Both of these stations as well as the Liddell Station, yet to be commissioned, receive their coal supplies by belt conveyor direct from the mines.

The reduction by $0^ in the supply for steel production and electricity generation from non-captive mines is also significant.

(b) The steady decrease in Railway consumption due to the N.S.W. Railway's dieselization programme.

(c) The decrease in towns' gas consumption due to the introduction of L.P.G. and liquid feed-stocks.

(d) The decrease in general industrial usage due to increased competition from other fuels with some influence from the market "dumping" of fuel oils. ; . (e) The reduction by two thirds of interstate trade, influenced by (c) and (d) above as well as the high cost of interstate sea freights and high demurrage rates for Australian vessels.

(f) The seven fold increase in shipment to Japan, made possible by the advent of the Newcastle Basin Coal Loader in 1967. 3. THE SHIP - SEA FREIGHT

3.1. Overseas - Japan

The increasing size of vessels used is the factor which has influenced every other transportation aspect related to the export of coals through the Port of Newcastle.

Vessels at the beginning of this century were of an average dead weight tonnage of between 2 and 4,000 tons, a gradual increase in size led to an average of 8 - 10,000 tons just after World War 2 which increased again gradually as the post war export market was developed through the sixties to an average of probably 15,000 tons in 1966 with many vessels of 20 - 25,000 tons contributing: to this average, 18-3

The tendency to use larger vessels was, of course, dictated by economics, the more modern type of vessel in many cases being manned by a crew far smaller numerically than the manning of her older counterpart of half the size. In addition to this, the advent of the specialized bulk carrier allowed a con­ siderable saving to be made in loading and trimming costs.

1967 saw the commissioning of the Newcastle Basin Coal LQader, designed specifically for this type of vesse^ and now 40,000 ton vessels are commonplace with quite a sprinkling of 50 - 55,000 tonners.

It is now apparent that to remain competitive with coal suppliers in other countries, such as those shipping from Roberts Bank in Canada, our thoughts should turn to vessels in excess of 100,000 tons deadweight.

3.2. Sea Freight - Japan

Table 2 gives some typical sea freights, Newcastle to Japar^ for various vessels used through the decade 1960 - 1970. It should be noted, however, that freight rates fluctuate over a wide range due to world demand for vessels at the time of enquiry and while the freights quoted are typical, there would have no doubt been specific instances in each of these years where freights differed from those quoted, by several dollars in either direction.

Normally more attractive freight can be negotiated on a multi-voyage basis than for a single voyage; an advantage which favours the larger exporters.

The advantage gained by the use of larger vessels is typified in Table 2, although the steady escalation, evident since 1964, for all types of vessels, will be noted.

3.3. The European Freight Market

Experience to date is too limited to allow the preparation of a similar table to that prepared for Japanj however, the. fluctuation in rates due to world requirements for bulk carriers is perhaps even more marked. As an example, during the latter part of 1969 freights as low as*US$4.25 were achieved for shipment Newcastle - Germany; current offers are almost three times this figure.

This wide band of fluctuation, which is of course beyond the control of the coal shippers, has a great effect on the availability of world markets for N.S.W. coals and is therefore of great concern to the industry.

It will also be readily understood that the greater distance involved in shipment to Europe makes the use of larger and larger vessels desirable, and the possibility of transhipment at a deep port such as Rotterdam, into smaller vessels for delivery to the ultimate destination therefore becomes a consideration.7

4. THE LOADING APPLIANCES

The first recorded export of Newcastle coal was in 1799 (1) when a vessel, appropriately called "Hunter}' sailed from Sydney to Bengal. The coal was.in- itally shipped in small vessels to Sydney, the means of loading in Newcastle being by small baskets, waded out to the vessels by convicts. No mining was carried out at this time, the coal being gathered from the foot of the cliffs or chipped from outcrops0; 18-4 4.1. The Sequence of Development

This primitive means of loading was improved initially by the construction of a "crude stone wharf built at the foot of what is now Watt Street", (1) coal being conveyed by bullock cart to a yard near the wharf and placed aboard vessels with barrows, which were no doubt pushed by convicts.

From this time on, the main means of loading coal have, as earlier stated, been dictated by the size of the vessel to be loaded and the following means have been employed;

"Staiths" or Chutes - These were elevated stagings which were built along the foreshore, coal was hauled up ramps in small wagons, the bottom of which would be released to feed fixed chutes projecting over the ship's hold.

Cranes - Due to an increase in size of vessels the "Staiths" gradually gave way to cranes, which would lift a detachable box or hopper from rail wagons, over the ship's hold.

Cranes first appeared as a shiploading medium in the late 1850's, and by 1917, twenty-three cranes were in existence, each having a capacity of between 80 and 100 tons per hour, thereby giving them a combined capacity of approx. 2,000 tons per hour (equivalent to the present combined sustained capacity of Dyke and Basin Loaders). One of the main limitations^however, was that 17 of the 23 cranes were hydraulically operated and of these, 11 were immovably fixed to the Dyke wharves and capable of operating only on the basis of one crane per vessel. The remaining 7 Hydraulic cranes were movable only with some difficulty but on occasions two could be utilized in one vessel. All the hydraulically operated cranes were of limited reach and not satisfactory for vessels of over 6,000 tons deadweight.

The remaining six cranes, which were mounted on the Western Basin^were electrically operated, and capable of tramming along the wharf and traversing simultaneously. Depending on the space between hatches, up to four could be used per vessel, with three being the normal allocation. These, six cranes main­ tained the main export load up, till the commissioning of the Basin Coal Loader in 1967.

Toward the latter portion of the operating life of these cranes, local stevedores in an effort to.cope with the increasing size of vessels were called upon to display a great deal of ingenuity and amongst the ideas with which they came up were the use of a chute attached to the hatch coamings which used the velocity of the coal falling from the wagons to "Skid" it to the far side of the hold, and the use of small "Calf-dozers" for trimming within the, holds.

McMyler Hoist - This hoist operated from 4th January, 1909 (1),. and ceased to operate in 1916, after a Royal Commission which was set up following complaints of its inefficiency by coal producers and shippers.

The Dyke Coal Loader - In 1958, on the site of the ill-fated "McMyler Hoist", a small fixed head conveyor belt loader was installed. This loader was privately owned by Newstan Colliery, and while it relied on a direct feed from rail wagons, primarilyvbf the privately owned variety of 7 to 12 ton capacity, and was devoid of surge and stockpile facilities, it provided a taste of the efficiency which could be achieved with a modern conveyor type loader. This loader is still in operation, handling the remaining interstate shipments and overseas vessels of up to 5S#.feet in length with a draft not exceeding 31 feet. 18-5 4.2. Privately owned Intrastate Loaders

In 1844- the brothers, James and Alexander Brown (founders of the present J. & A. Brown and Abermain Seaham Collieries Limited^ began to load ships from lighters at Morpeth and later, following their purchase of the railway line from Minmij they began loading operations at Hexham, using a "staith" type plant, which still stands, but is now inoperative.

There are, in current-operation, three highly efficient small loaders supplying the Sydney market. These have combined a high loading rate with a relatively low capital cost. Brief details of these plants are as follows:

(a) Coal & Allied Industries Limited - Catherine Hill Bay: Loading Rate - 1,200 - 1,500 tons per hour. Type of Loader - Single Mobile Head, fed by retractable belt conveyor. Storage Facility - Concrete bin 13>000 ton capacity. Means of Supply - Conveyor Belt from Coal Washery. (b) R. W. Miller & Co. Pty. Limited - Hexham: . Loading Rate 1,200 - 1, 500 tons per hour. Type - Single Semi Movable Head (fixed arc). Storage Facility - Timber Bin 3,500 ton capacity. Means of Supply - Road vehicle from various collieries. (c) Peko Wallsend - Hexham: Loading Rate - 1,000 tons per hour. Type - Single Head, semi movable on fixed arc. Storage Facility - Steel Bins 3,000 ton capacity. (An open storage area is currently being developed.) Means of Supply - By rail from various collieries.

Unfortunately all of the above loaders are so situated that loading of vessels is limited by available draft and cargoes generally do not exceed 3,500 tons.

4.3. The Newcastle Basin Coal Loader

In the early sixties it became abundantly clear that if Newcastle was to keep pace with the World standard of Export Ports, a modern loader backed by adequate stockpile facilities, would be a necessity.

There was considerable disagreement regarding the most suitable site for such a loader, and eventually the Maritime Services Board of N.S.W., decided on a site in the Eastern Basin of Newcastle Harbour and the local firm of A. Goninan & Company Pty.. Limited was commissioned by the Board to carry out the construction.Work commenced in August, 1964., the first vessel (excluding test vessels, which were only part loaded) to fully load, being the "Iron Cavalier" on the 8th August, 1967.

Illustration No. 1 shows a schematic layout of the Basin Loader which at the current rate of operation will achieve 7 million tons per annum. An increase of 4- million tons per annum is expected in the next few months follow­ ing the connection by belt conveyor of the Basin Loader with an additional stock­ pile area with a stated capacity of 4-00,000 tons. This stockpile area is private­ ly operated by Canwan Coals Pty. Limited. IO-D U.U. Ti:e Future Requirement 1 r: *-hf: light of present world market potential it is obvious that •iddl'.ionrvi loading capacity is required.. In the last twelve months," coal s.'.ipp^rs :.-JVC: been unable to take full advantage of overseas opportunities (:;ar: iciariy when low freights have been-.offering) because of saturation of • ::e •"•ocis-.inc loading facilities.

"he Chairman of the Australian Coal Association, the Hon. Sir Edward VJarrc-r, K.C.M.G., K.B.E., M.S.M., R.S.G.C., M.L.C., has made it clear that i; is os^wnlia'l :'or the N.S.W. coal industry, that provision be made for the io-idjng of buik carriers as large as 100,000 tons. Once again we have entered the phase of dispute and indecision regarding th^ location of the new facilities.

"wo main alternatives appear to be; (a) Additional plant within the Port of Newcastle. 0) A deep sea loader at a selected point on the sea-board.

Alternative (a) above has the advantage that it could be "tied in" with r- " existing facilities and therefore be in operation relatively soon. The clear \ disadvantage is. however, that even if Newcastle Harbour was deepened a further \ four feet to forty feet, vessel size would be limited to approx. 80,000 tons. j f Alternative (b) has the advantage of allowing design for vessels of I almost any size, but the disadvantage of high capital cost and the length of I Lime required for construction, as well as the time loss which would be occasioned ? due to weather. This has been estimated as about 20$ of available loading days. ' Following the announcement that Clutha Development Pty. Limited had abandoned j their feasibility study of a loader on the sea-board at Fly Roads, a few miles j south of Port Stephens, a well known Newcastle consulting engineer, Mr. E.F. [ Hewett, has put a proposal before the N.S.W. Government for a. loader in Stockton | Bight, capable of handling vessels up to the "Universe Aztec" class, (i.e. approx. | 160,000 ton deadweight). Considerable publicity has also been given to a survey I being made by Western Sea Services Pty. Limited of the U.S.A. of several likely | deep sea locations within 15 miles north and south of Newcastle. In addition to these two alternatives, there is also the possibility of a loader within Port Stephens. This would have the advantage of being able to accept, larger vessels than Newcastle, but the disadvantages of time and cost applicable to the deep sea loaders, would also apply to this location, without the advantage of virtually no limitation on size.

• A further problem to be considered is the age of protest in which we live. To date every suggested site has been subject to protest. If populated there has been a vigorous protest from the inhabitants, if unpopulated an equally vigorous protest from those wishing to preserve the natural environment,

-•'• RAILWAYS •"•..'•

As with other aspects, changes in operation of the rail system have been dictated by the increase in size of vessels, and its influence on the loading facilities. 5.1. Rolling Stock j For many years the majority of coal shipped was hauled in the previously 18-7 mentioned, privately owned hoppers of 7 to 12 tons capacity. These had the distinct advantage of providing mobile storage.

As mines farther from Newcastle were developed, these wagons became unsuitable because of their lack of air brakes and the N.S.W. Railways began to provide a number of similar hoppers with this facility, for use on the longer hauls. Apart from the brief period of operation of the McMyler Hoist, no advantage could have been gained by the use of larger wagons because of the limitation imposed by the lifting capacity of the cranes (approx. 15 tons), until the commencement of the Dyke Loader in 1958. It was not until the commencement of the Basin Loader was imminent^ however, that the railways looked earnestly at the need for provision of larger wagons, for use specifically in the coal export trade, although they had been developing a fleet of bogie type wagons for use in the haulage of bulk cargoes generally. These vehicles were known as BCH wagons (Bogie Coal Hoppers), and had a capacity of approx. 4-2 tons^ at a later stage some similar wagons with modified axle bearings were produced (HCH), and these had a capacity of approx. 50 tons. The wagon specifically produced for the present day coal export trade is #constructed from aluminium, is known as the CH, and has an average capacity of 56 tons. There are at present 225 CH wagons operating in the Newcastle and Northern N.S.W. area, and whilst there is no fixed allocation of HCH/BCH's to the area they would number about 100 during normal operation. It is interesting to note that trains of the older private hoppers are limited to about 350 tons net, of coal, the limitation being imposed by draw bar capacity over a length of forty wagons. The modern unit train of 30 CH type wagons, drawn by dual diesel locomotives^ hauls 1650 to 1700 tons net."

So far the only large bogie wagons privately owned in N.S.W. were designed and constructed by the B.H.P. Company Limited, who now operate a fleet of 55 such wagons from four of their captive mines in the area. Their experience in the operation of these wagons is interesting. In 1965 the total output of the four mines was about 8,000 tons per day and using the small ten ton hoppers it was necessary to supplement rail transport by road transport of up to 2,000 tons per day. The present output of the four mines is approx. 12,000 tons per day and this is comfortably handled by the 55 large wagons. These wagons, known as CXD's, are constructed of steel, carry 60 tons and have automatic air-operated discharge doors, enabling a high rate of unloading to be achieved.

5.2. Locomotive Power

The dieselization/electrification of N.S.W. Railways is progressing^ however^ some "Garret" type locomotives and Canadian "60" class steam locomotives are operating most effectively, hauling unit loads. The main current problem is that the retirement of the old steam locos appears to have gained too great a start on the procurement of diesel replacements, the result being that if peak haulage periods of wheat, woodland coal coincide, a Statewide locomotive shortage results, with consequent delay in the movement of all commodities.

5.3. Rail Loading Facilities

It is suggested above that the N.S.W. Railways were a little tardy in initiating their procurement programme for large rollAg stock. It is equally true to suggest that the coal industry was slow to react to the need for high speed rail loading facilities which are a necessity to make the best use of these wagons. Under the old private hopper system, where stocks were normally, maintained on wheels, there was little point in the train loading rate at a. 18-8 colliery exceeding the rate of output (about /+00 tons per hour in the best case). Collieries in the Singleton and North Western areas have been quick to react to this requirement because of their complete dependence on air-braked rolling stock.and most can now achieve loading rates of 100 tons per hour or better. The older collieries and loading points in the Newcastle and South Maitland areas are^ however, faced with heavy capital expenditure and in many cases severe technical difficulty in achieving reasonable loading rate. Coal and Allied Industries Limited has currently under consideration a central stockpiling area at Hexham with a view to the "flood" loading of unit trains.

5.4. Rail Discharge Facilities

Coal is discharged at the Basin Loader on two tracks, one of which uses a tippling mechanism and can discharge only the large bogie type wagons, the other track providing for bottom dumping .of both private hoppers and bogie wagons. The nominal rates of discharge are 1,000 tons per hour on each track for bogie wagons and approx. 500 tons per hour for the small private hoppers. Unfortunately these rates cannot be sustained over 21+ hours because of the time lost in shunting, when placing rakes of loaded wagons and removing empty wagons, space limitations having prevented the construction of a "Balloon Loop" which would have allowed the uninterrupted movement of trains through the discharge point. It is noted that the B.H.P. Company Limited, are able to discharge their CXD wagons on one track at] 1,650 tons per hour. No doubt the air-operated door mechanisms are a contributing factor to this creditable rate.

5.5. South Maitland Railways Pty. Limited

This is a privately owned railway, serving the South Maitland (Cessnock) field. The point of connection with the N.S.W. Government Railway System is at East Greta Junction, near Maitland.

5.6. Rail Freight Costs

Most coal producers or shippers have established contractual rates with the Department of Railways and it is not possible to quote a standard ton mile rate. A typical export rate^ however, for freight over approx. 70 miles would be |2.91, for coal conveyed in Departmental wagons. From statements made by overseas visitors, this freight does not compare favourably with freights charged by privately owned rail roads in the U.S.A.

An interesting local comparison is between some typical freights charged by the Department and the privately owned South Maitland Railway. (Export, rates for coal in owner's hoppers.)

South Maitland Railways; (a) 12 miles 31.25 cents per ton (b) 23 miles ...... 74.07 cents per ton Department of Railways: (a) 10 miles ...... 82 cents per ton (b) 21 m^les $1.15 cents per ton 6. ROAD HAULAGE

It is proposed only to deal with those road; haulage aspects pertinent to the Basin Coal Loader, as a full coverage of road haulage requirements for detail delivery to industrial consumers would in itself provide a complete topic, for a paper such as this. 18-9 6.1. Restrictions

The receiving facilities at the Newcastle Basin Coal Loader are designed primarily for receipt of coal by rail7 although two road receiving hoppers are provided for coal to be stockpiled and one for coal to be despatched direct to the loading vessel.

The Maritime Services Board of N.S.W., which operates the loader, has protected its fellow Government body, the Department of Railways, by demanding that a permit from the Railways be produced by a shipper wishing to deliver coal by road. Such a permit will only be granted where:

(a) The Colliery supplying coal has no rail access and no suitable siding exists within reasonable distance from that colliery,

(b) The Railway Department is unable for some reason, such as locomotive, rolling stocky or labour shortage^ to fulfil the haulage requirement.

Because much of the haulage is carried out in populated areas, there are also frequent protests regarding the noise, traffic congestion and dust generated by the heavy road vehicles.

6.2. Road Vehicles and Operators

The increase in size of road vehicles used for this purpose, while apparent, has not been as marked as in the case of rail wagons and no doubt this is due to the axle loading restrictions imposed by the N.S.W. Department of Main Roads. The vehicles most successfully used are of semi-trailer type with rear dump gate and hydraulic hoist and with capacity in the order of 18 to 20 tons.

By far the most successful suppliers by road, are R.W. Miller and Company Pty. Limited, who have had the foresight to set up a transport depot and dump area immediately adjacent to the loader stockpile. Because there are only a few yards involved in the final delivery from their dump to the loader receiving hoppers, they are able to maintain an acceptable supply of coal to the loader, in spite of the paucity of road receiving facilities.

Most road hauliers running to the Loader, employ a fair sprinkling of owner-drivers, as it has been found that such operators without overheads, are able to offer comparatively economical haulage. Should legislation, which is understood to be currently under consideration, enforce the need for sick leave and long service leave benefits to be provided for owner-drivers, the big well known road hauliers with employee drivers, may well come to the fore,

6.3. Road Haulage Costs

The cost per ton mile for road haulage would normally vary between U and 8 cents per ton mile, according to: : (a) Vehicle loading facilities at Colliery. (b) Length of Haul. (c) Road Surfaces traversed. (d) Traffic Density. (e) Whether or not waiting time at the loader is payable separately. V.-10

7. CONCLUSION

Since the first shipment of Newcastle coal in 1799, transportation methods hnve been dictated by the location and volume of the market outlets. This wi Li continue to be so.

The growth of the Japanese Market in the 1960's, has led to the usage of bigger ships, necessitating increased harbour depth, better ship loading facilities, improved means of delivery to those facilities, and efficient si.ookpi.le ^nd recovery systems at the Collieries,

The Newcastle Basin Coal loader is currently operating at a rate equivalent to 7 million tons per year and this is expected to be increased to 11 million by 1971, following the completion of the additional stockpiling facility operated by Canwan Coal Pty. Limited.

This appears to be close to the limit possible with the present loading plant and therefore to keep pace with the still expanding Japanese market and to properly enter the promising -European Market, additional and improved shiploading capacity is required.

As stated earlier in the paper this fact appears to have been accepted by the appropriate authorities but there is considerable conjecture and dispute as to where, how; and when it will be provided.

One possible answer seems to be the immediate commencement of an additional loader inside the harbour to act as a stop-gap while the final, decision is made on the site and type of deep sea loader.

If our means of competing with other world exporters is to depend on the loading of "Super-Carriers" of 100,000 tons or more deadweight, now is the time to finalise plans for deep sea loading.

Mention has been made of the many protests against the construction of a loader in either a populated or natural environment. In view of the necessity for an additional loader, someone's protest must be unsuccessful^ however, it is essential that the maximum consideration to given to the aesthetics of design and minimization of inconvenience to the populace.

Inconvenience can be greatly reduced by forward planning in transport. A description has been given in this paper of existing transport methods, but if a decision is taken in favour of a deep sea loader to operate aty say, 6,000 tons per hour, none of the present methods will be adequate.

Listed below are only some of the questions that the appropriate authori­ ties must now ask themselves: (1) Are the existing rail tracks adequate? (2) How much more rolling stock will be required, and what type? (3) What form of locomotion will be necessary? (A) Will special motor roads be required, and where will they be placed? (5) Are any of the above means of transport satisfactory or should investiga­ tion now commence on long distance conveyor or pipeline transportation? (6) What will be the stacking and reclaiming requirements at collieries or coal preparation plants? / 18-11

It is my sincere hope that in 1980, we will be able to look back on ten years of significant development in the transport of coal to and through the Port of Newcastle.

8. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The assistance rendered by the following persons and organizations is gratefully acknowledged.

1. The Branch Manager, Maritime Services Board of N.S.W., Newcastle. 2. The Regional Superintendent of Railways, Newcastle. 3. The Joint Coal Board, Newcastle Office. A. All Coal Shippers through the Port of Newcastle.

9. REFERENCES

(1) COULIN, E.F. "Evolution of Coal Loading Plant at Newcastle'' Port of Sydney, March, 1959. 18-12 TABLE 1. THE CHANGING MARKET 1960-1 1968-9 ______3 (tonsxIO^) (tonsx10J) (tonsxIO ) 1 • . , _. . — , — . N.S.W. Steel Production and Electricity Generation. (Captive Mines) 2984 4829 7328 (Non Captive) 1566 1166 713 N. S. W. Rai Iways 585 513 226 N.S.W. Towns Gas 842 683 555 N.S.W. General Industry 1142 1048 838 Shipped - Interstate 1610 1046 564 - Japan 744 1434 5187 - Other Countries 112 171 56

(Figures extracted fron Joint Coal Board Annual Reports.)

TABLE 2. SOME TYPICAL SEA-FREIGHTS TO JAPAN (Australian Currency)

YEAR TYPE OF VESSEL / LOADING RATE

10-12000 tons 18000-25000 Bulk 40-55000 Bulk Multi Deck Carrier Carrier

15-2500 4,000 4,000 10,000 10,000 tons/day tons/day tons/day tons/day tons/day

1960 $4.30 1964 14.25 13.38 1968 $5.00 $4.50 $3.90 $3.30 1970 $5.60 $5.10 $4.50 $3.80

TABLE 3. LOADING CHARGES

SHIPLOADING STACKING (cents per ton) (cents per ton) Basin Loader 49 10.5 Dyke Loader 50 72AC*

*o '«** ~

*4t

•^. • 1 C*" "£"c*srt£- MS./?. 19-1

PAPER 19

THE MARINE TRANSPORTATION OF LIQUID HYDROCARBONS

By: JOHN F. CRANE*

SUMMARY

The world tanker fleet has shown a remarkable growth in total tonnage and in the size of individual units since inception. The most notable feature is the relatively large tonnage that is being added at present in ships of 200,000 DWT arid above. The economic advantage of these large units is great compared with conventional-sized ships, but diminishes when the size reaches 250,000 DWT.

Ships employed on the Australian coast are more costly to operate than similar vessels operating under most other flags.

The port performance of tankers is an important aspect of their overall performance, and the handling of very large ships has been facilitated by intro­ duction of such novel features as single-point moorings and lightening procedures.

Constant attention is directed by major tanker operators to a 'clean seas policy" that will totally prohibit the dumping of oil at sea.

1. INTRODUCTION

This paper traces the development of ships built specifically to carry oil in bulk, and deals with the relevant factors. It sets out the world-wide disposition of tankers according to size and flag.

The two major tanker types are described and their principal features outlined.

* Marine Manager, Shell Company of Australia Limited. 19-2

Operating costs are compared as between Australian and overseas tonnage, and the effect of ship size is shown.

Utilization of the full potential of large vessels in areas where in­ adequate facilities exist is described with particular reference to the in-port performance of ships.

2. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TANKER

The first ship actually constructed as a tanker was "Gluckhauf", built in 1386 in Britain, steam-engined, of 3020 DWT. It was the first vessel in which the hull formed the container for the oil.

The first loaded tanker to sail through the Suez Canal was Shell's "Murex" of 5,010 DWT, in 1892. (Shell's present "Murex" is of 220,000 DWT but will not sail.loaded through the Canal.) Fig. 1 shows the steady growth in size of ships. The growth of fleets.has been similar. The tanker fleet at the commencement of World War I was 330 ships totalling 2 million DWT. By the end .of World War II the total had risen to 24 million DWT in spite of enormous losses.

The World War II period saw the construction of the turbo-electrically propelled T2 tanker of 16,600 DWT, with a speed of K-g- knots, more than 500 , of which were built during the period of hostilities. Sections were prefabricated in various parts of the U.S.A. and transported to newly constructed shipyards where they were erected. The methods developed in that period were the fore­ runners of those used in the construction of the modern giants.

Up to this time most refineries had been situated in production areas (e.g. Aruba, Curacao> Abadan), with most tankers carrying refined products to the markets. There was little long-distance tanker transport of crude oil.

Now commenced a change of great significance. As markets grew in size new refineries, particularly in Europe, were built at the market rather than in the production areas. The pattern of oil distribution by sea was radically changed because, instead of carrying relatively small parcels of different re­ fined products to market areas-, tankers were now required to carry larger homo­ geneous cargoes of crude oil to the new refineries at the market. This was followed by the realization of the economics of size, which led in turn to the evolution of the current generation of large crude-oil carriers.

In 194-8, Shell had built its first 28,000 DWT crude tanker on the lines of existing 12,000-DWT product ships, and these bigger ships did indeed^ make excellent product carriers in the later years of their life. The "big"" ships had hardly been completed before 31,000- and 38,000-DWT ships were on the board. At this point the switch to the specialized type took place: larger and fewer pumps, fewer tanks,^nd more simple pipe systems were fitted. From this time the growbh in size vras steady; 31,000 DWT in 1955, 38,000 DWT in 1957, 47,000 DWT in 1959, 65,000 DWT in 1961, 109,000 DWT in 1966, and the following year the first of the ships greater than 200,000 DWT.

With the advent of National Bulk Carriers' 350,000-DWT "Universe Ireland" in September, 1968, there was a temporary halt to the increase in size but now there are ships of 400,000 DWT under construction, and classification societies and builders are convinced that ships of 500,000 DWT and greater are feasible.

During this, period of big ship construction smaller ships for product distribution continued to be built, and at 31st December, 1969, the world tanker 19-3 fleet, generally considered to be available for ocean transportation, stood at 2,623 ships totalling 118.4 million DWT.

Fig. 2 shows the composition of the world fleet at the end of 1969-

One other significant group of vessels is those known" as O.B.O. and built specifically for the ore, bulk, or oil cargoes. The current number of these vessels available for world trading is 193, totalling nearly 12 million DWT.

3. ORGANIZATION OF THE WORLD FLEET

At the close of World War II the biggest tanker fleet according to flag was American. The post-war period saw rapid growth in fleets under flags of convenience, as owners for financial advantages chose his flags in place of their own. Today Liberia has the greatest registered tonnage, representing about 25% of the world total.

Flag selection is also influenced by factors other than financial advan­ tage, particularly where there is Government pressure to build prestige fleets regardless of expense. This is often accomplished by legislation, restricting import of tankers and .seaboard movements of crude and products in other than national flag tankers.

The owners of the world tanker fleet can basically be divided into three categories, with ownership proportions at the end of 1969 as follows:-

(i) Major oil companies 29.8$, (ii) Independently owned 65.2$. (iii) Governments 5$.

The oil companies ' general policy is to maintain a fleet of a siae that will ensure the exertion of a reasonable influence on freight rates.

Of the independently owned group, about 12% of the tonnage is chartered to the oil companies on a long-term basis. These charters may be negotiated before construction of a ship starts, and although the owner may settle for a relatively low rate, he has an assured income and, at the end of the charter period, a ship of some value, which he will continue to trade, sell, or scrap depending on the circumstances prevailing. The long-term charter enables the oil company to ensure that the ship is constructed to a standard that will permit integration into its owned fleet. Other independents build or buy "on spec" and play the market for freight. Older ships^ or ships in smaller tonnage range^are usually involved.

Where ships are required on short-term charters, these will attract a higher rate than long-term charters. Particularly is this so in times of crisis like the Middle East war or a cold European winter-when a sudden demand for ships generates the higher rates which compensate the owners for the idle time spent awaiting charters.

There are also variations not only in the seasonal demand for petroleum products but also in the demand between particular companies. The availability of a "floating" group of ships thus assures continuity of supply, without the necessity of oil companies all maintaining costly fleet surpluses.

A. ECONOMICS OF TAMER OPERATION

The largest single factor in operating cost is the capital charge for the 19-4

cost of construction. Cost of a tanker is best expressed in terms of capital outlay for each ton of cargo that can be loaded, i.e. per dead weight ton. Fig. 3 shows the average relation between cost per ton and size, and the escala­ tion over the last three years. The great savings in capital cost per ton from the larger ships is strikingly illustrated. Nowadays most owners select the size of ship which, from the capital cost point of view, is the most economic in terms both of the facilities at the ports at which the ship will trade and the size of market to be served therefrom.

At about the 250,000~DWT mark, propulsive power considerations require the adoption of twin or contra-rotating screw installations, which increases machinery costs sharply; and at about the same stage ship proportions will be changing because of draft limitations in the ocean passages. The length then increases more rapidly than other dimensions and, as a ship from the strength point of view may be regarded as a beam, the extra length requires increased scantlings or higher-grade steel, which will further increase the initial cost..

The speed of most tankers is in the 15- to 17- knot range. The. selection of the speed depends on machinery cost, machinery weight, and specific fuel con­ sumption. The latter two affect the carrying capacity of a ship of a given displacement because, for the higher-powered installation, there is a higher initial weight and also the weight of the extra fuel oil required. Additionally, the space required to house the machinery is greater and this reduces the volume available for cargo.

The main reasons for the reduction in building costs per ton are that a modern large tanker has a.ratio of dead weight to light weight tonnage of between 6 and 7 to 1, whereas on small ships this ratio is about 4 to 1. Again, the power required to propel ships of larger displacement is not linear but in the ratio (displacement) V3» ComDarinp again with the PUT,' we po* •••*bou+ 1 Lo 1 for a 20/50, 000-DWT ship and 6-7 "to '1 for a 200,000-DWT ship. A big proportional saving in fuel results from the relatively small power/dead-weight ratio. Crew costs represent upwards of 30$ of owners1 operating costs on overseas tankers (4-0$ on Australian flag tankers). However, it is usual to operate between 18,000 and 200,000 DWT with a total complement of between 32 and 35 men. Thus there is further economy for big ships when relating crew costs to DWT.

Repair costs, representing about 25% of owners' operating costs, are the largest single reason for days out of service.

It seems agreed that for tankers, the diesel engine is the economic choice for powers up to 24,000 b.h.p., or ships of about 120,000 DWT.. Beyond this a switch to steam propulsion is almost universal. The low-speed diesel engine was the most favoured, but there are now many medium-speed geared installations being built.

5. AUSTRALIAN COASTAL FLEET

The composition of the Australian coastal fleet is shown in Fig. 4.

Of the total of 350,000 DWT, 94,000 DWT are independently owned. Most of the ships comprising the Australian fleet are imported ships, which are currently being replaced with Australian-built vessels of similar size.

The costs of operating Australian flag tankers are much greater than those of their overseas counterparts. Fig. 5 shows the comparison between costs of operating 18,000-DWT vessels under the Australian and the British flag. These 19-5 graphs show only owners' controllable costs; other cost items (charter hire, bunkers, and port charges) would be comparable for either flag.

Within the last year two ships of about 60,000 DWT have been introduced for handling the increasing quantities of crude oil now available from the fields at Barrow Island and Bass Strait.

6. FREIGHT RATES

The various types of owners' costs shown in Fig. 5 when considered with charter hire, cost of bunkers, and port charges for a given voyage, enable the assessment of a freight rate.

The economics of operating the large ships is well illustrated in Fig. 6, which shows the freight rate in shillings per ton for a voyage Mina al Ahmadi - Europoort (Persian Gulf - Europe) and return, for ships above 20,000 DWT. This particular voyage has been selected as one on which the full range of ships has operated. The graph shows the different return voyage conditions allowed by the size.

7.'" TANKER TYPES

7.1. The "Crude" Tanker

The crude tanker is the simplest form of oil-carrying ship, since crude petroleum is generally carried in large parcels and rarely is such a ship called upon to segregate more than two types of oil. The subdivision can therefore be a simple one, and so also can the pipeline system.

Such a ship would be divided .somswhat as shown in Fig. 7. Transversely, the ship is divided by -10 bulkheads into: -

(i) Fore peak tank, (ii) Forward fuel-oil tank, (iii) Ballast tank, (iv) Cargo tanks. (v) Pumproom. (vi) Engine room, (vii) Aft peak,.'

The cargo tanks are further subdivided by two longitudinal bulkheads. In addition to giving longitudinal strength and a measure of rigidity to the structure, these bulkheads lessen the effect of the free surface of the oil on the transverse stability of the ship "and ensure that it will not heel excessively and become unstable.

Each of the cellular cargo compartments will contain in addition to its piping system, hatches for access from the deck with fitted ladders to give access to the structure for cleaning and inspection, a vent system, possibly a fire-extinguishing system,.devices for ullaging (i.e. determining the quantity of oil in the tank), sighting ports for observing when the tank is dry or empty. Heating coils are also provided.

The large volumes of air required for washing tanks and for gas freeing are usually supplied by a centrally mounted blower unit delivering low-pressure air through the normal piping system. Inert gas, obtained by scrubbing boiler flue gases, can also be used to produce an inert tank atmosphere during cargo and cleaning operations. 19-6

The pipeline systems of crude carriers are simple but varied. There is usually a degree of free flow between a limited number of tanks, and some have been constructed with full free-flow characteristics though this type is particularly restrictive if two grades have to be carried or if the dis-. charge is effected at two ports, as trim and hull stresses due to loading are difficult to control.

At present most of the ships of this type have only limited automatic or remote operating facilities, and the operation of loading and discharging is performed by seamen physically manipulating valves and observing measuring devices. Mechanization is, however, beginning to creep in.

Some types of crude oil are extremely viscous or waxy and must be heated to make them pumpable. This is accomplished by supplying steam to the pipe grid ' at the bottom of the tank. In addition to improving pumpability the low viscos­ ity permits the cargo to drain better from the tank bulkheads and structure, permitting a better outturn figure. Most big bulk ships are unable to heat cargo above 14-0 F.

Most crude oils contain a certain amount of water and sediment which on residence in the tank tends to settle. Other crudes will deposit wax if the temperature is allowed to fall below the pour point and it is certain that, even with the cargo heated, the layer adjacent to the shell plating will be at almost sea temperature; and so over a period there is a build-up of sediment in the cargo tanks. • This sediment impairs the flow of liquid on the tank bottom and thus increases the time required for draining; it also cuts out cargo, as every ton of unpumpable sludge remaining on board means that one ton less cargo can be loaded. It is therefore necessary from time to time to remove this sludge by washing with high-pressure water jets.

7.2. Product Carriers

Fig. 8 shows the subdivision and pipe system of a product tanker of about 20,000 DWT. Such ships carry white cargoes (gasolines, kerosines, aviation fuels, etc.) or dirty cargoes of fuel oils, feedstocks etc. Occasionally a special design is evolved to permit both black and white cargoes to be handled.

The aim In the design of a white-product carrier is to provide the greatest degree of flexibility by permitting the stowage of as many products as possible without unduly complicating the pipeline system. The almost universal method is by providing two ring mains, with double valves to each cargo tank and four cargo pumps.

7.3. Specialized Tankers

Special types of liquid cargoes require special, handling conditions, and specialized ships are built capable of carrying the full range, of petroleum products from bitumen through fuels and chemicals to liquefied gas.

The normal temperature at which penetration asphalt is carried is 280°F, whereas the cargo temperature in the non-pressurized methane gas carrier is -258 F; naturally there is a wide variation in constructional details of the ships required to carry these comodities. 8. PORT FACILITIES

Like any other transportation unit, a ship is only earning money when it is actually moving or handling cargo. It therefore follows that to achieve the best 19-7 performance the ship must be kept moving and the port time kept as short as possible. A recent survey of the marine operations of one large tanker company showed that on average, the fleet spent one-third of the time in port, and one- third of that in-port time was completely unproductive.

It is desirable to provide alongside berths for tankers if only for the convenience of access to the ship, ease of running pipelines, and the pro­ vision of secure points to which the ship can be moored. However, it is not always possible to do this, the usual reason being lack of water depth or manoeuvring room, and in these cases buoy moorings are provided.

As programmes cannot.guarantee a designer that his ship will trade between specific points it is virtually impossible to design an integrated system, though this was partly possible when the very large "crude" carriers were intro­ duced. At that time there were not even harbours to receive them, and all shore facilities were designed as part of an integrated exercise. It was only in February, 1969, that the first full cargo was discharged to a shore installation in Europe by a 200,000-DWT ship and this in France, two years after, the intro­ duction of the first ship of this size. Although pipeline and' tank facilities could be made available, lack of deep channels still precludes the entry of big ships to cost of the major ports.

Another method practised in Europe for handling the cargo from such vessels is to tranship part of the cargo at sea, using smaller ships of about 70,000 DWT. The smaller ship then proceeds to a nominated port, and the "crude" carrier,, sufficiently lightened,proceeds on her journey.

9. COMBATING POLLUTION

Increasing numbers and size of ships carrying crude oil over recent years have aggravated a serious problem. Pollution of the sea with oil is not the result of tanker operations alone. Some 4-5,000 ships burn oil fuel in boilers and engines and many of these, notably big passenger ships, use tanks for oil and water alternatively. Consequently they too, if great care is not taken with tank cleaning procedures, can contrioute to this nuisance.

After discharging of oil cargoes there is always residual oil remaining in the tanks, adhering to the structure and within the pipelines and pumps. The very nature of the open cellular construction of a ship's bottom structure dictates that puddles of oil will remain. In a ship of about 30,000 tons there is about 350.000 square feet of steel to which the oil can cling. With a 200,000- ton ship the corresponding area is about 2 million square feet.

If the cargo was heavy oil this residue is probably of the order of j$> of the cargo, and could be as much as 1$ with very viscous cargoes. Refineries, in common with other process plants, require stable feedstock, and because of the wide variety of grades of crude oil that may or may not be compatible, it is from time to: time necessary to wash the ship's tanks.

For many years these "slops", as they are commonly called, were discharged •direct];.' to ^he se-i. •.;

In May, 1967, however, the major oil companies agreed to adopt a "clean / seas policy" which totally prohibits the dumping of oil wastes;at sea; and now>^ when tanks are cleaned, the wet residues are retained on board"in a nominated or specially constructed tank and allowed to settle. At the end of the settling . period the interface between oil and water is detected by a simple galvanometer v attachment to a metallic tap, and the clean water is then allowed to run to ly-8

sea while the slop is retained on board. At the loading port the incoming cargo is loaded on top of the slop oil, or, if not compatible^is either dis­ charged or its segregation is maintained until arrival at the refinery where it is off-loaded.

It is estimated that the application of this practice prevents the discharge of more than 1,000,000 tons of residual oil annually.

Unfortunately, at sea as elsewhere, accidents happen and a large "crude" carrier is a potential polluter on a grand scale. Development work on clean­ up procedures is therefore under constant review within the industry.

The obvious way to prevent pollution resulting from accident is to prevent the accident; here again development work is undertaken continuously on improving navigational aids and machinery and-on routing of ships in congested waters.

10. CONCLUSION

The section of the marine industry charged with the responsibility of carrying liquid oil cargoes is continually seeking methods of reducing or containing transportation costs, consistent with a policy of maintaining high safety standards for operating personnel and the environment.

11. REFERENCES

(1) McFADZEAN, F.S. The Strathclyde Lecture, Ath March, 1968 (University of Strathclyde). Copies available from The Shell Company of Australia, 155 William St., Melbourne, Vic.

(3) BRERET0N, A.F., and GIBBONS, D.J. Stowage and handling of tanker cargoes in the nineteen sixties. Trans. Inst. Mar. Engrs.. 1968, 80 (11), 377-390. 19-9

DEVELOPMENT IN SIZE. CAPACITY 8. CHARACTERISTIC APPEARANCE OF THE OCEAN TANKER MAKEUP OF WORLD TANKER FLEET BY TONNAGE

Feet s 100 200 300 WO 500 600 700 600 900 1000 1100 (O0O DWT.) I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1690 1869

1968 17.919 tiliiiliiiil 5000 tfwt. (29) 180 5,925 160 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 r T 1 (236) 1910 (2 64) 23.4 36 26,54 0 80 90

9000 dwt. (56^) •t (564) 33,317 33,474

45

(620) (637) 21,578 22,09 2

25 oonaoaaoooooaoc loaaaDaDODOODOD oaaaoaaaaaomac jaoaaaaaaoaaaaa aaoaoooaaDC-.Lj.jc lODoaoaoDaaaaaD DDooaooaoaDOoac IDDOOOQBQOOaDOD oaoaaQODaoaoaac 3QDODQDDOODQDOD DDDaaaaaoaaaaDC iDDoaaaapoaoaaa • ooaciDoaacaoaac JQQDDOQQODOaODU (791) Qoaojaoooaaaaoc (755) jaaaaoaaaaapaaa •aoaoaoaaooooac saaooaaaaaoaaaa 15,5 70 aocioaoaaaaooaao 14,948 naaaaaaaaaaaaaa aoaaaoooamaoac j-aQaaaaaaaoaaoo aaaaooaoaauoaoc juoaaooaaoooooo sooooaaaaoaaoao aaoaooaaooooaoo 3DaoaanooDaoaaD aaaDaaoDaooaaoa 3ooDDaooaaooaan •aoaaaoDaooaoao 3QoooooDaaraaaD aaaaijapDpaDOPa ^anaaaaaoouoDDD aaaaaaaoaaaaoa 16.5 16 5 ( 353) (319) 3.964 3,428

1P3.790 FIG.1. 118,401

AUSTRALIAN COASTAL TANKER FLEET

( OOflFoWT.)

200.. WORLD TANKER BUILDING COST $A /TON DWT. ao 175_

150. (3) 183

125J

< •*» 100. 45 25

75-

(S) 150 50- RC. 4

—I— —i— 20 40 60 80 100 16.5 (3) JS OOO^Tons Deadweight FIC.3 10

COMPARISON OF OPERATING COSTS

AUSTRALIAN FLAC

ADMINISTRATION ETC.

VICTUALLING

INSURANCE yj P&SM STORES )ODDODOaD JDDDODDQa iDDaocaoD DDOOODOOD IDDDnOOOD 3OOOaD0DQ 300000000 3i3QODDDDQ 3OODO000O DOOOOOOOO BRITISH DOOOODOOO FLAC aooooaooo 3ODQDD0QD aaoooaooa ADMINISTRATION aaoaooaoa naoaooooo PERSONNEL ETC. aaoaoanaa scooaoooo VICTUALLING SOOOOOOQO JDOOOOODD INSURANCE 3DCnDDDDD laooooooo STORES socooQoan laoonoooo aaoooaaac aocDoncoD aoaaoaaac :oDDonotio aaaooaoac lOODaaoDQc aCDDODQQG oaaaooaac DaoDoacao Dpoaaaaac •noonaooo •aoaaaaac 3DCDDDDDD Daaaaoaa DOOOODOPO •aDaaooac laooaoaaat PERSONNEL aoaaanDQt •oaaoaaoc oaaaoaaQc oaaaoaaCK oaoaaaaac aaaaoaaoc REPAIRS

REPAIRS

FIG. 5

COMPARATIVE COSTS OF TRANSPORTING CRUDE Oil FROM MENA-AL-AHMADI TO ROTTERDAM BY MMHOUS SIZE TANKERS (ALL COSTS ON PRE-DEVALUATION BASIS) 65

60

„SUEZ LAD EN/ SUEZ EALLAS T 38" CANAL! 50 y 1 y

40

£ 30 8 CAPE L WEN/SUE ! BALLAST CAP = LADEN/ M 20 / CAI 'E BALLAS r

10

i. 1 • 1835 SO 75 100 125 150 200 300 400 500

OOO1* TOMS DWT. FI6. 6. FIG. 7. -200,000 DWT CRUDE OIL CARRIER PIPING SYSTEM

w. a DA S4 $ •23= ' \ -MH- ^f gU.1Dir-rj"—"ff- J • yij j jj. BL. 1 _™a5L*_

o- 1 &r B w »t>4 W. B. 9M PUMP ROOM

W. B. PERMANENT WATER BALLAST PERMANENT BALLAST LINE

D. L. OIRECT LOAD UNE o-fr}- STRIPPING SUCTION ONLY

I] BULKHEAD VALVE Gtt-j MAIN SUCTION CARGO/BALLAST t CARGO/BALLAST LINE O-M-j I STRIPPING SUCTION

FIG. 8.-19.000 OWT GENERAL PRODUCT CARRIER CARGO PIPING SYSTEM

7^_ —a.—*—x—w• "• x—M <^~x—M —x~** —X— -S--M- —x--W- : t>-taf & 3* >• t>»oj 44? O s3z £ k&*( Wwj' " 94*1 PUM y 53: 22»_. ^2fc -si-si ?2L ssL ROOM 20-1

PAPER 20

PIPELINES FOR NATURAL GAS

By: C. R. SAUNDERS*

SUMMARY

Pipelines are designed, constructed, and operated under very exacting and specific regulations which give top priority to the safety of the public. An Australian Pipeline Code is being developed which will become the guide for all future high-pressure gas pipelines built in Australia. It will be based on the American National Standards Institute B31.S, and Part 192 of Title A9 of the Code of Federal Regulations in the U.S. issued in August, 1970. All of our pipelines now built in Australia were built under the B31.8 code.

Parameters for use in determining viability of pipeline projects are discussed and a table lists 'pipeline costs versus throughputs for transmission lines of various sizes.

Unit costs for transportation of natural gas are greatly affected by the proper matching of designed volumes and actual throughput volumes. Large volume markets and ample reserves for future years have a profound effect on cost of transporting gas.

A brief comparison of capital investment in gas transmission pipelines with equivalent energy transmission by electric, power lines shows relative costs much in favour of pipelines.

1. INTRODUCTION

In Australia today natural gas is being piped through transmission pipelines to areas inhabited by approximately 4-, 100,000 people. Within the next two years it is likely that 7,500,000 people will have natural gas

* Manager, Associated Pipelines Limited. transmission pipelines within their customer areas. This represents over 62% of Australia's population. While a large number of these potential customers may not be using natural gas by that time, only minor lateral extensions would be required in so far as gas transmission is concerned*

2. DRAFTING THE AUSTRALIAN PIPELINE CODE

The basic internationally recognized Standard Code for Pressure Piping is published by the American National Standards Institute as ANSI B31. Section 8 of this Code concerns gas pipelines and is titled Gas Transmission and Distribution Piping Systems. It is commonly referred to as B31.8*. Though this code will continue to be the backbone of any additional codes which may be developed, it is expected that Australia will have its own "Pipeline Code" by early 1972. The Standards Association of Australia has recently formed a committee for the purpose of preparing standards covering the design, fabrication, installation, inspection, testing, and safety aspects of operation and main­ tenance of gas transmission and distribution piping systems. Public comment on the proposed code will be sought prior to its official adoption.

The Australian Code will use ANSI B31.8 as a basis but re-oriented into a different format, more in keeping with the Standards Association of Australia pattern. This new code will also reflect changes from B31.8 deemed necessary for safety reasons or to better suit Australian conditions.

One of the major differences in the Australian Code will be the fact • that pipeline materials other than steel will not be covered. It is strictly for the high-pressure gas pipeline. Pipes made of other materials, and low- pressure systems, will at.least temporarily remain under ANSI B31.8 or under local standards administered by State Gas Examiners.

Until the Australian Code is completed and adopted, natural gas trans­ mission pipelines in Australia will continue to be governed by the ANSI B31.8 code and any additional guidelines established by the State Mines Departments. This code is applicable from the outlet side of the wellhead trap or separator to the outlet of a customer's meter.

The code covers construction materials, welding procedures and testing of welds, piping system components, design, installation, testing, control, and limiting of gas pressures, valve locations, compressor stations, and* operating and maintenance procedures.

A major feature of the code is the establishment of four location classes, dependent on the density of population and related factors, e.g. Class 1 covers sparsely-settled rural areas, while Class 4 applies to areas where multi-storey buildings are prevalent, traffic is heavy, and many utilities are underground. Many design requirements vary according to the location class, and are expressed by varying design factors.

3. SAFETY REGULATIONS IN THE U.S.A.

Developments in the United States which no doubt will influence some of t, ... content of the proposed Australian Code started in August, 1968, when the U.S. Go%jmment sanctioned the Natural Gas Pipelines Safety Act. This Act established

* ANSI B31.8 Gas Transmission and Distribution Piping Systems. A publication of the American National Standards Institution. Copies may be purchased from the Standards Association of Australia, 80 Arthur Street, North Sydney, Australia. Price,,$8.80...... '.

The prime intent of the Office of Pipeline Safety with respect to the new standard is that performance-type rather than specification-type standards be developed,

4. PIPELINE FEASIBILITY STUDIES

When a study is being made to determine the feasibility of constructing and operating a gas pipeline there are many parameters which must be evaluated and considered.

Among the general factors affecting pipeline economics are the length of pipeline, field pressures, the expected sales growth pattern, and the volume of proven gas reserves. Investment cost factors include the cost of capital, the size of pipeline, compressor-station spacing, right-of-way costs, the construction-cost estimate, and the operating-cost estimate. Technical con­ siderations include code requirements, determination of pipe size and wall thick­ ness, gas conditioning and "pigging" requirements, valve spacing and design, delivery-station design, and considerations of possible future expansion. First, the construction cost and the estimated life of the pipeline must be determined, because these parameters establish the capital recovery period. When all of the parameters have been properly considered and evaluated energy transportation costs for varying volumes can be determined for the project.

5. ECONOMICS OF PIPELINE SIZING.

Most of the costs of operating a pipeline relate to the capital investment. Actual running expenses will be only a fraction - perhaps as little as 20$ - of the interest and depreciation charges, and these running expenses will not vary to any great extent for variations of throughput. With one factor of the equation substantially fixed, unit throughput costs will vary in inverse ratio to the volume of gas transported.

Low throughput costs therefore depend on accurate matching of pipeline capacity to gas carried, and this is the central problem of pipeline economics«,

There is no difficulty in designing the optimum pipeline to carry a specified volume of gas between two points, but there rarely is a "specified volume". In .practice, there will be an initial volume, and a future growth which will depend on development of supplies and/or. market:;.' By far the cheapest way to carry more gas in the future is to install a large enough line in the first place; but this will impose excess costs on the smaller through­ put of the. early.years. Once any line is laid its capacity can be doubled only by laying another line alongside, or by an expensive combination of compressor stations and "loops" (parallel sections of line). But this doubled capacity could have been obtained by making quite a smal> increase in the size of the original line at ,an increased cost of perhaps 20% or 30$. .

Capacity-varies with the 8/3 power of the diameter, and this dramatic rate of increase is shown in Table 1, 20-4

This table shows that the decision to increase the Gidgealpa-Adelaide line to 22 in. from the originally planned 18 in. nearly doubled its capacity, while the 30 in. line in Victoria will carry more than twice as much as the 22 in. line, and 15 times as much as the Roma 10f- in. line, given the same conditions of pressure and distance. In general, doubling the diameter of a line increases its. capacity sixfold.

6. PIPELINE COSTS.

Actual costs for pipelines installed in the U.S.A. in 1969 are shown in Table 2, with the figures for the energy they are capable of transporting on a daily basis.

For each of the pipeline sizes quoted, the maximum cost is more than double the minimum. This difference largely reflects the effect on installation costs imposed by different types of terrain, although differences in transport costs as between remote and more accessible regions, and regional differences in material and labour costs, would exert some influence.

A classification of different terrain types, together with the effect on installation cost due to each type of terrain, has been published by Jefferis and Fegley^ for U.S. conditions of some years ago. Table 3? taken from their paper, illustrates this classification and its use in the estimation of' pipeline ' construction costs.

No similar cost tables to Table 2 are available for Australia, but Hetherington^ published what- amounted to estimated standard Australian pipeline costs at the time of publication. These standard costs were expressed in a form admitting readily of updating to allow for present material and labour costs, and would appear to have corresponded, at the time of publication, to a terrain type factor, as expressed by Jefferis and Fegley, of close to 1.00.

Table 4 presents data derived from Hetherington's Figure 8-1 and it will be seen that his costs per mile fall within the lower half of the range shown in Table 2. They were based on 1964 cost levels, and subsequent cost increases in Australia could bring these nearer to the mid-point of the Table 2 range.

7. TRANSPORTATION COSTS - ELECTRICITY AND GAS

It is interesting to compare the costs of moving energy over given distances by gas pipeline and by electric transmission line. Fig. 1 shows the result of a study of the capital costs of the two types of transmission system, for distances from 50 to 200 miles.

By ignoring production and distribution costs and adopting a load factor of 100$, the comparison is simplified but in a way which favours the electric mode. The basic assumptions include (a) an energy transmission-of 24 MMCFD (represents 240,000 therms/day), (b) a rural location, (c) no major geo­ graphical or physical route problems such as large river crossings, and (d) that both systems must meet applicable codes.

The curves plotted in Fig.1 1, which are based on these assumptions, indicate that the capital outlay for gas transmission pipelines transporting 240,000 therms per day is much lower than for electric power lines. The actual figures plotted indicate a ratio of 4.72:1 in favour of pipelines at the 50- raile point, 3.62:1 at 100 miles, 4.02:1 at 150 miles, and 4.90:1 at the,200- mile point. 20-5

These costs are based on data obtained in Australia under Australian' conditions. Power-line costs were provided by the State Electricity Commission of Queensland from data available from similar projects. The electric power line was based on a transmission voltage of 132 kV, with two or three circuits depending on the distances involved. The gas pipeline was based on combinations of 6 5/8 in., 8.5/8 in., and 10f in., API5LX4.6 line pipe of appropriate wall thickness for 1,000 lb/in.2 maximum allowable qperating pressure. No power generating equipment for the electricity production or compressor station '* equipment for the pipeline was included. High well-head pressure, capable of delivering 1,000 lb/in. gas into the transmission line, was assumed.

The foregoing study compared the costs of transmitting equivalent quantities of energy, assuming that natural gas and electricity would be equally acceptable at the delivery point. If the requirement at that point should be specifically for electricity, it will be necessary to transmit approximately three times as much energy in the form of gas to allow for the loss on subse­ quent conversion to electricity. This is a problem caused by the inherent inefficiency of the steam cycle. Heat rates in the range of 8,000 Btu per kWh are approaching the limits of what is possible with the steam cycle. The most efficient power plant in Queensland has an 10,000 Btu per kWh rate, and the most efficient in Australia approximates the 9,500 Btu per kWh rate. However, the comparison still favours gas, owing to the cost/volume relation mentioned earlier. Table 2 and Table U show that three times the volume could be carried by increasing pipe size from 10 in. to 16 in., and that this would halve the unit cost. Thus three times the volume would be transported for 1.5 times the total cost, and Fig. 1 shows that the ratio favouring pipelines would merely be reduced by one-third, i.e. from around 3-62:1 to around 2.42:1 at the low point of 100 miles and from 4.90:1 to around 3.27:1 at the highest point shown at the 200-mile mark.

Conversion from gas to electrical energy is irreversible, and if the requirement.at the delivery point is specifically for natural gas as a chemical feedstock or some other of- its multitude of basic uses, electricity alone is of no value.

8. CONCLUSION

The specifications under which gas pipelines are designed, constructed, tested, and operated are exacting and emphasize safety.

Compared with capital costs for installing electric power lines over long distances, the capital costs of pipelines for natural gas are very favourable.

Large markets with correspondingly large reserves, supplied by means of large-diameter pipelines, allow capital recovery at a much greater relative rate than those supporting smaller pipelines. Responsibility for sizing of pipeline facilities is not to be taken lightly, because of its economic effect on overall profitability.

Throughput of a pipeline has a tremendous effect on reducing unit costs and improving capital repayments.

Pipelines are good economical means for transporting energy when this energy is available in the form of natural gas. 20-6

9. REFERENCES

(1) JEFFERIS, R.P., and FEGLEY, K.A. Routing pipelines by computer. Oil and Gas Journal. 1964, 62 (41), 184.

(2) • HETHERINGTON, CHARLES R., AND CO. LTD. "Report on Energy Resources of Queensland and their Use." Report to-.%..the Premier of Queensland. (Queensland Government Printer, Brisbane, Dec. 1964),

TABLE 1. RELATION BETWEEN PIPE SIZE AND VOLUME OF GAS CARRIED Index of Volume Carried Pipe Size (all other factors constant) 6 5/8 in. x 0.188 in. 1.0 8 5/8 in. x 0.188 in. 2.2 10 3/4 in. x 0.188 in. 3.9 12 3/4 in. x 0.219 inc 6.2 18 in. x 0.250 in. 15.9 22 in. x 0.312 in. 27.1 30 in. x 0.500 in. 6T.1

TABLE 2. U.S. REPRESENTATIVE CONSTRUCTION COSTS PER MILE OF PIPELINE • Pipeline Approximate Size Daily Energy (inches Minimum Maximum Delivery Average diam). Cost/faile* Cost/faile* (therms) Gost/Therm Mile tA. . u. *A. 10 26,785 66,377 300,000 0.155 12 34,241 .103,616 480,000 0.144 16 33,607 123,232 1,056,000 0.074 20 71,107 150,036 1,970,000 0.056 24 83,375 181,599 3,240,000' 0.041 30 103,071 271,103 5,760,000 0.032 * Based on 1969 costs reported to U»S9 Federal Power Commission and convex'te d to Australian dollars at $1.12 U.S. = fl.OOA. 20-7

TABLE 3. INSTALLATION COST MULTIPLIERS

Condition Multiplier Condition Multiplier

Terrain Water condition Level 1.00 Dry 1.00 * Slightly rolling 1.05 Springs and streams 1.05 Rolling 1.45 Swampy, non-tidal 1.50 Rough 2.00 Swampy, tidal 3*05 Very rough 3-34 Shallow river or lake 12.50 Deep river or lake 24.00

Soil Parallel occupancy (highway) Sandy 0.84 Open country or none 1.00 No rock 1.00 Congested area 1.50 0-25$ rock 1.19 Heavily congested 17.50 25 - 40$ rock • . 1.39 40 - 55$ rock 1.59 Parallel occupancy (railroad) 55 - 70$ rock 1.82 Open country 1.10 70 - 85% rock 2.41 Congested 3.00 85 - 100$ rock 2.78 Heavily congested 8.00

Vegetation Congestion No timber 1.00 Farm 1.00 Light timber 1.25 Village, town, suburb 1.25 Heavy timber 1.50 Medium industrial 1.25 City 2.00

TABLE 4. RELATION BETWEEN PIPE SIZE AND COSTS PER MILE (HETHERINGTON'S DATA) Pipeline Size Approximate Daily Cost Nominal •'.•/. Cost Energy Delivery Therm/Mile (inches diam.) .-' lA/mile therms M- 10 36,000 300,000 • 0.120 12 46,000 480,000 0.096 16 64,000 1,056,000 0.061 20 88,000 1,970,000 0.045 24 115,000 3,240,000 0.035 30 160,000 5,760,000 0.025 20-8

100

50 100 150 200 TRANSMISSION DISTANCE (MILES)

FI6.1 CAPITAL INVESTMENT FOR TRANSMISSION 6AS PIPELINES vs ELECTRIC POWER LINES