Political Change with Pitfalls : an Interim Report on the Yemeni
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INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS | FES YEMEN Political Change with Pitfalls An Interim Report on the Yemeni Transition Process TIM O. PETSCHULAT September 2012 n Political change in Yemen is making slow but steady progress as the transfer-of- power agreement, known as the Gulf Initiative, is implemented. So far, this interna- tionally brokered two-year transition plan has been regarded as a success. It brought about the resignation of Ali Abdullah Saleh after thirty-three years as president, as well as the election of the transitional President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. A National Dialogue Conference is about to be formed, which is to produce a new constitution within the next nine months, thereby creating the conditions for parlia- mentary and presidential elections in spring 2014. n Nevertheless, a successful political transition towards a democratic and stable Yemen is not guaranteed. The process is being jeopardised by an elite power struggle that is raging behind the scenes. n The international community can and should exert pressure on those who are put- ting a successful transition process at risk. At the same time, it is necessary to support reform-oriented forces. If the Gulf Initiative fails, Yemen is threatened by complete state failure, civil war, and further deterioration of an already dramatic humanitarian situation. TIM O. PETSCHULAT | POLITICAL CHANGE WITH PITFALLS Yemen was one of the countries that started what be- n Spreading instability around the border areas with came known as Arab Spring. After months of protests, Saudi Arabia and Oman; violent attacks by the regime against peaceful protest- n Streams of refugees; ers, and a split in the armed forces, Yemen managed a n An increase in piracy on the oil export routes, etc. comparatively peaceful transfer of power. With the as- sistance of the international community, the Gulf States The division of the Yemeni army in March 2011 is widely brokered a transition roadmap, which was signed by all considered to have triggered the GCC engagement. Fol- parties represented in the Yemeni parliament and whic h lowing the bloody assaults on demonstrators by snipers led to the fall of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. By loyal to the regime in the Yemeni capital on 18 March signing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Initiative in 2011, General Ali Muhsen Al-Ahmar declared his solidar- November 2011, Saleh formally accepted the end of his ity with the Youth Revolution and ordered soldiers of thirty-three-year presidency. the First Armoured Division to protect the demonstra- tors at what had become known as »Change Square« in Since then, little has been reported about Yemen in the Sana’a. At the same time, numerous government minis- European press. The Yemeni model generally seems to ters, parliamentarians, and diplomats – as well as a large be regarded as a successful one. In March 2012, German number of army officers – resigned or defected in pro- Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle proposed the GCC test. A few days later, the Al-Ahmar Sheikhs – leaders of Initiative as a model for a regime change in Syria despite the most powerful and well-armed tribal confederation fundamentally different political conditions. While this (Hashed) – followed suit and declared their opposition to doesn’t necessarily say much about the minister’s for- President Saleh. Since Saleh and his clan still maintained eign policy expertise, it does give an indication of the control over the major parts of the armed forces, Yemen generally positive assessment of the GCC Initiative. in April 2011 was on the brink of a civil war that would have impacted on neighbouring countries. The six Gulf In fact, the Yemeni transition plan has produced some States reacted quickly and presented the GCC Initiative notable achievements. Whether it can actually move the in April, supported by the UN, the USA, and the EU. It country out of its deep economic, political, and humani- came into force on 23 November 2011 when, after sev- tarian crisis remains to be seen. It lies primarily in the eral revisions, Ali Abdullah Saleh finally signed it. Leaders hands of Yemeni elites to shape the process of demo- from all parties represented in the Yemeni parliamentary cratic reconstruction in line with the GCC Initiative in a had already given their signatures long before. participatory and effective way. Nonetheless, the inter- national community must also play its part – in particular by identifying and isolating disruptive forces. Content of the Agreement The Transition Agreement, which includes the original The GCC Initiative GCC Initiative as well as the implementation mechanism agreed between the ruling General People’s Congress Background (GPC) and the opposition alliance known as Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), stipulates a political transition in two phases: In the past, the GCC has not exactly known for active political engagement outside its six member states. Nor The first phase began with Ali Abdullah Saleh’s signing is it the Gulf States’ desire for political renewal and de- of the Transition Agreement in November 2011. As early mocracy to which Yemen owes its peaceful transition. as May 2011 Saleh had promised to sign several times Rather, the decisive factor was the fear of a comprehen- and had backtracked repeatedly, usually on very short sive state failure in the south-western Arabian Peninsula, notice, much to the annoyance of national and inter- and its foreseeable consequences: national VIPs who had come to witness the procedure more than once. Following an assassination attempt on n The spread of Al-Qaeda to other parts of the Arabian 3 June inside the presidential mosque that left several Peninsula; people dead and Saleh himself, as well as other high- n Extensive weapons smuggling; ranking government officials, severely injured, Saleh 1 TIM O. PETSCHULAT | POLITICAL CHANGE WITH PITFALLS continued to put off signing the initiative by demanding The Transition Agreement spells out the following topics to further specify details of its implementation. and tasks for the National Dialogue: He finally seems to have been convinced by a mixture n »The process of drafting the Constitution, including of far-reaching immunity promises and coordinated dip- the establishment of a Constitutional Drafting Com- lomatic threats pressure by the diplomatic international mission and its membership; community, regarding toincluding threats to freeze n Constitutional reform, addressing the structure of the his foreign bank accountsassets. With his signature, State and political system, and submitting constitu- he transferred many of his presidential powers to Vice tional amendments to the Yemeni people through a President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, while remaining referendum; nominal president until early presidential elections put a n The dialogue shall address the issue of the South in formal end to his term. Subsequently, a Government of a manner conducive to a just national solution that National Unity was formed, led by a prime minister from preserves the unity, stability, and security of Yemen; the ranks of the opposition alliance. While the compo- n Examination of the various issues with a national di- sition of the Parliament did not change (about 80 per mension, including the causes of tension in Sa’ada; cent of former ruling party GPC, 20 per cent of the op- n Taking steps towards building a comprehensive demo- position alliance JMP), the thirty-four cabinet posts were cratic system, including reform of the civil service, the divided equally between GPC and JMP. judiciary, and local governance; n Taking steps aimed at achieving national reconcilia- One of the most important objectives of the first phase tion and transitional justice, and measures to ensure was the establishment of a Military Committee to over- that violations of human rights and humanitarian law come the divisions of the armed forces, to demilitarise do not occur in the future; the cities, and to provide security. The transition plan n The adoption of legal and other means to strengthen also stipulated (thus far unsuccessfully) the establishment the protection and rights of vulnerable groups includ- of an Interpretation Committee, which was intended to ing children as well as the advancement of women; mediate in case of disagreement on the interpretation of n Contribution to determining the priorities of program- the Transition Agreement. mes for reconstruction and sustainable economic de- velopment in order to create job opportunities and The first phase ended ninety days after Saleh signed the better economic, social, and cultural services for all.« Transition Agreement. The Parliament nominated a con- (Quoted from the UN Translation) sensus candidate, who was elected – or rather confirmed – by the people with remarkable turnout, as president of The National Dialogue is to begin in September 2012 Yemen for a period of two years. Since February 2012, at the latest, shall deal with all of the above-mentioned former Vice-President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi holds issues within six months, and then submit final recom- Yemen’s highest public office. mendations. Immediately after these six months, the government is to appoint a Constitutional Commission, The second phase is supposed to provide for the or- which shall develop a draft constitution within three ganisation and implementation of a National Dialogue, months. Then a constitutional referendum is to be con- through which all relevant political and social stakehold- ducted. Parliamentary and presidential elections are ers are to shape the future of their country together. The planned within three months after the public adoption Transition Agreement doesn’t offer details regarding the of the constitution. The Transition Agreement is binding. exact shape and form of this dialogue conference, but In case of discrepancies between the Initiative and the there are clear statements about who is to participate current Yemeni constitution, it is the former, which is to and what is to be negotiated.