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Timor-Leste Strategic Development Plan 2011 - 2030

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Timor-Leste Strategic Development Plan 2011 - 2030 SDP 2011-2013 PART 1: INTRODUCTION SDP 2011-2013 PART 1: INTRODUCTION TIMOR-LESTE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011 - 2030 1 SDP 2011-2013 PART 1: INTRODUCTION 2 SDP 2011-2013 TIMOR-LESTESDP 2011-2013 STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011 - 2030 PART 1: INTRODUCTION PART 1: INTRODUCTION CONTENTS FOREWORD FROM THE PRESIDENT 7 PART 1 INTRODUCTION 9 OVERVIEW 10 BACKGROUND 11 STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 13 PART 2 SOCIAL CAPITAL 15 EDUCATION AND TRAINING 16 HEALTH 35 SOCIAL INCLUSION 46 ENVIRONMENT 55 CULTURE AND HERITAGE 63 PART 3 INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 71 ROADS AND BRIDGES 72 WATER AND SANITATION 79 ELECTRICITY 87 SEA PORTS 95 AIRPORTS 99 TELECOMMUNICATIONS 101 PART 4 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 107 RURAL DEVELOPMENT 109 AGRICULTURE 120 PETROLEUM 138 TOURISM 143 PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT 153 PART 5 INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK 159 SECURITY 160 DEFENCE 165 FOREIGN AFFAIRS 172 JUSTICE 178 PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT AND GOOD GOVERNANCE 183 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AGENCY AND ECONOMIC POLICY AND INVESTMENT AGENCY 190 PART 6 ECONOMIC CONTEXT AND MACROECONOMIC DIRECTION 195 PART 7 CONCLUSION AND STAGING OF THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 217 3 TIMOR-LESTESDP 2011-2013 STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011 - 2030 PART 1: INTRODUCTION DISTRICT MAP OF TIMOR-LESTE 2011 Source: UNDP 4 SDP 2011-2013 TIMOR-LESTESDP 2011-2013 STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011 - 2030 PART 1: INTRODUCTION PART 1: INTRODUCTION LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1 – ESTIMATED SCHOOL INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS 17 TABLE 2 – PROGRESS ACHIEVED IN BASIC EDUCATION, 2000 TO 2010 19 TABLE 3 – SECONDARY EDUCATION IN TIMOR-LESTE, 2010 22 TABLE 4 – GRADUATED STUDENTS (CUMULATIVE DATA UP TO 2011) 24 TABLE 5 – SUMMARY OF EXISTING HEALTH FACILITIES IN TIMOR-LESTE 36 TABLE 6 – BENEFITS PAID UNDER DECREE-LAW NO. 19/2008 ALLOWANCE FOR THE ELDERLY AND DISABLED 47 TABLE 7 – TIMOR-LESTE’S CRITICAL INDUSTRIES 108 TABLE 8 – BASIC FOOD DEMAND AND SUPPLY 2010-2030 122 TABLE 9 – AREA AND PRODUCTION OF RICE PADDY, 2006 – 2009 125 TABLE 10 – VOLUME OF IMPORTED FRUIT AND VEGETABLES (TONNES), 2007 128 TABLE 11 – REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE TARGETS, 2010 TO 2030 ($ MILLION) 206 TABLE 12 – RANGE OF SERVICES SECTOR EMPLOYMENT IN VARIOUS COUNTRIES AND ESTIMATED CONDITION IN TIMOR-LESTE 213 TABLE 13 – RANGE OF INDUSTRY SECTOR EMPLOYMENT IN VARIOUS COUNTRIES AND ESTIMATED CONDITION IN TIMOR-LESTE 213 TABLE 14 – STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN SUPPORT FOR MACROECONOMIC DIRECTIONS 214 TABLE 15 – STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN, SUMMARY OF STRATEGIES, ACTIONS AND TARGETS 220 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1 – STUDENT POPULATION AT 2010 17 FIGURE 2 – AGE DISTRIBUTION IN COMPARISON WITH OFFICIAL AGE BY GRADE, 2010 20 FIGURE 3 – GIRL TO BOY RATIO IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS, 2010 20 FIGURE 4 – HIGHER EDUCATION ENROLMENTS, 2009 TO 2011 24 FIGURE 5 – LEVEL OF EDUCATION REACHED BY PEOPLE AGED 15 AND OVER 28 FIGURE 6 – NATIONAL HEALTH SYSTEM MODEL 37 FIGURE 7 – HEALTH SERVICE DELIVERY PYRAMID BY 2030 39 FIGURE 8 – DROUGHT HAZARD, TIMOR-LESTE 57 FIGURE 9 – RIVER FLOOD RISK, TIMOR-LESTE 57 5 TIMOR-LESTE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011 - 2030 FIGURE 10 – TIMOR-LESTE NATIONAL ROAD NETWORK 73 FIGURE 11 – MAIN SOURCE OF DRINKING WATER 80 FIGURE 12 – ATLAS OF ANNUAL AVERAGE WIND SPEED 91 FIGURE 13 – MAP OF DAILY SUNLIGHT RATES ACROSS TIMOR-LESTE 92 FIGURE 14 – MAP OF BIOMASS POTENTIAL 93 FIGURE 15 – TIBAR PORT DEVELOPMENT PLAN 97 FIGURE 16 – BROADBAND PENETRATION IN LOW INCOME COUNTRIES, LATEST OF 2007-2008 102 FIGURE 17 – POPULATION DENSITY IN TIMOR-LESTE, PERSONS PER SQUARE KILOMETRE 109 FIGURE 18 – NATIONAL PLANNING FRAMEWORK 116 FIGURE 19 –BASIC FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND UNDER NEW STRATEGIES 123 FIGURE 20 – CROP PRODUCTION IN TIMOR-LESTE 124 FIGURE 21 – HOUSEHOLDS WITH LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK NUMBERS 131 FIGURE 22 – TASI MANE CLUSTERS 140 FIGURE 23 – TIMOR-LESTE TOURIST ARRIVALS, 2009 TO MARCH 2011 144 FIGURE 24 – PETROLEUM FUND BALANCE 198 FIGURE 25 – REAL NON-OIL GDP (BASE YEAR 2000), 2002 TO 2010 (US$ MILLION) AND GROWTH 199 FIGURE 26 – REAL NON-OIL GDP BY SECTOR AT 2000 PRICES, 2002 TO 2010 (US$ MILLION) 200 FIGURE 27 – REAL NON-OIL GDP BY SECTOR AT 2000 PRICES, 2002 TO 2010 (PERCENT) 200 FIGURE 28 – TIMOR-LESTE INFLATION RATE, MONTHLY ROLLING YEAR RATES 201 FIGURE 29 – TIMOR-LESTE IN THE SOUTH EAST ASIA REGION 202 FIGURE 30 – EMPLOYMENT SHARE SHIFT BY SECTOR FROM LOWER INCOME COUNTRY TO HIGH INCOME COUNTRY 204 FIGURE 31 – STATE REVENUES (INCLUDING OIL AND GAS) 207 FIGURE 32 – BAYU-UNDAN AND KITAN REVENUE PROJECTION 207 FIGURE 33 – INCREMENTAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL AND REGION, 2011 TO 2035 208 FIGURE 34 – DEVELOPMENT PARTNER FUND ALLOCATION IN 2010 209 FIGURE 35 – FUND ALLOCATION PER SECTOR IN 2010 210 FIGURE 36 – REAL NON-OIL GDP GROWTH (2002 TO 2010) AND TARGETS FOR 2011 211 FIGURE 37 – TARGETED PRODUCTION SHARES OF NON-OIL GDP IN PERCENTAGE OF GDP AT 2000 PRICES 212 FIGURE 38 – STAGING OF THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 219 6 TIMOR-LESTE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011 - 2030 TIMOR-LESTE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011 - 2030 FOREWORD FROM THE PRESIDENT It is with particular pleasure that, after our long struggle for independence and almost a decade building our sovereign State, I am now in a position to write a foreword for a 20 year plan to develop our nation of Timor-Leste. ll Timorese should be proud not only of achieving our independence but also of the advancements we have made as a nation in such a short period. Unfortunately, it is common for countries emerging Afrom conflict and fragility to take decades to achieve stability and sustained progress. Regrettably, many nations of the world, even after years of independence, still experience unrest, violence and disunity. Timor-Leste has also faced obstacles in our short history as a nation and we have lived through periods of strife. But as a nation and as a people we have made a shared commitment to peace and, in a spirit of national solidarity, we are moving together to develop our nation and secure our future. We are consolidating our democratic governance and building our State from the ground up. We are laying down a strong foundation for ongoing stability and security, and we are working hard to create new opportunities for all our people. We still face enormous challenges and problems that must remain at the forefront of our thinking and our planning. Many of our people suffer every day from poverty and miserable living conditions. The results of the 2010 census demonstrate that throughout Timor-Leste people experience extreme disadvantage and deprivation. From health care and nutrition to education and housing; from clean water and proper sanitation to basic infrastructure, including roads, communications and power, many of our people do not enjoy even basic services and decent living conditions. The Strategic Development Plan seeks to address these challenges and make a positive and lasting difference in the daily lives and living conditions of our people. The Plan provides a guide for our development and for sharing the benefits of this development across our nation. It follows an unprecedented period of development, including five months of consultations by the Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmão, throughout the 65 sub-districts of our nation. The Strategic Development Plan also reflects extensive work and strategic thinking carried out across all industry sectors and ministries and, importantly, the coming together of this work in a coordinated and shared vision for our future. It can truly be said that many, many thousands of people participated and contributed to this Plan: from young people in the remotest of areas to our elders; from our farmers to our civil servants; as well as people from all aspects of civil society. The voices of Timorese women are heard in this Plan, as are the voices of people living in small villages, district centres and our capital, Dili. In this sense, the Plan itself is a demonstration of our unity and of the commitment of all Timorese people to our future prosperity. The preparation of the Strategic Development Plan was led by our people, it is owned by our people, and it reflects the aspirations of our people. 7 TIMOR-LESTESDP 2011-2013 STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011 - 2030 PART 1: INTRODUCTION Perhaps most significantly, the Plan will ultimately be implemented by our people. With its strong focus on education, the Plan will build our skills and capacity to take full control of our economic development, creating opportunities for young Timorese. The Strategic Development Plan builds on Timor-Leste 2020, Our Nation Our Future, the five year National Development Plan 2002 and the good work of previous governments, and provides a framework to achieve our vision in the context of our current national circumstances. The Strategic Development Plan is not a political document, it belongs to us all. It is a sustainable and long-term plan that provides us with the direction, both now and in the future, to transform our nation and to benchmark our progress. The Strategic Development Plan sets out an ambitious agenda, but it is one that reflects the will of our people, an understanding of our history and culture and our determination to have ownership and control of our development path. It provides certainty and focus for our development endeavour. By providing an overview of the state of each of our sectors and setting detailed strategies and actions to achieve our vision, this Plan provides a guide for us all. The Strategic Development Plan will also promote our continued integration with the global community and our social and economic relationships with East Asia in this ‘Asian century’. It will support our consolidation as a vibrant democracy and help us to become a development model for fragile States. Some may say we are too ambitious, that some of our targets are unachievable.
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