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Vodafone Group Plc 1 June 2016 Vodafone Group plc BUY Telecommunications Dividend risk reducing Paul Marsch Analyst +44 20 3207 7857 [email protected] Laura Janssens Analyst +44 20 3465 2639 [email protected] Julia Thannheiser Specialist Sales +44 20 3465 2676 [email protected] ATLAS ALPHA • THOUGHT LEADERSHIP • ACCESS • SERVICE Vodafone Group plc Telecommunications THE TEAM Paul Marsch has been with Berenberg since 2009. He was previously head of telecoms research at Morgan Stanley, where he was consistently very highly ranked. Paul has 20 years' experience in telecoms research, as well as having worked for five years in the telecoms industry for Cable & Wireless. Laura Janssens joined Berenberg in September 2011 and was previously head of global telecoms research at UBS and head of European telecoms research at Merrill Lynch. She has also worked at telecoms consultancy Analysys, and at BT. She has 17 years of telecommunications experience. Laura has been a top-ranked individual analyst in the Extel survey on several occasions. Julia Thannheiser joined the Berenberg specialist sales desk in May 2013. Prior to this, she spent over three years as a telecoms analyst at UBS. Julia holds a BSc from the University of Maastricht and a MSc from Cass Business School. For our disclosures in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG) and our disclaimer please see the end of this document. Please note that the use of this research report is subject to the conditions and restrictions set forth in the disclosures and the disclaimer at the end of this document. Vodafone Group plc Telecommunications Table of contents Dividend yield appeals on reducing risk 4 Investment thesis in pictures 6 Investment conclusion 7 Juicy dividends and reducing risk profile 7 Changes to estimates 10 Dividend drives valuation appeal 11 Price target unchanged 11 European mobile operating trends deep dive 14 Conclusion – European mobile service revenue trends encourage 27 Margin outlook shows scope for improvement 29 “Good” capex reflects success of project Spring 33 Indian spectrum risk? 38 Financials 40 Disclosures in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG) 43 3 Vodafone Group plc Telecommunications Dividend yield appeals on reducing risk ● Dividend yield appeal: We continue to like Vodafone’s shares for their 1 June 2016 relatively attractive dividend yield and rapidly declining dividend risk. The outlook of modest single-digit dividend growth is underpinned by a return to stable low single-digit revenue growth, margin expansion, and falling BUY capex that results in FCF growth averaging c18% over the next three years, and dividend cover rebuilding from c1.0x this year to 1.5x by FY19. The Current price Price target 5.3% dividend yield stands out relative to the peer group, and is the highest cash dividend yield of the “big five” European incumbents. GBP 2.31 GBP 2.50 ● Europe drives group service revenue improvement: Group organic service 31/05/2016 London Close revenues continue to improve (Q4 growth of 1.8% yoy lfl, versus 1.4% in Market cap (GBP m) 60,057 Q3). Our detailed assessment of European mobile service revenue trends Reuters VOD.L shows a material improvement driven by improving ARPU trends rather Bloomberg VOD LN than improving subscriber trends. Blended ARPUs are improving in most EU business units, with declines in postpaid ARPUs being offset by the Changes made in this note ongoing significant mix shift from low-ARPU prepaid tariffs to higher- ARPU postpaid services. We see this mix shift as the single most significant Rating: Buy (no change) evidence that growing demand for mobile data is being monetised. We Price target: GBP 2.50 (no change) believe there remains considerable further potential for growth in Estimates changes smartphone, 4G and data plan adoption which should continue to 2017E 2018E 2019E underpin modest European service revenue growth in the medium term. old ∆ % old ∆ % old ∆ % Sales 41,309 5.1 42,349 4.6 43,254 4.2 ● Good reasons for margins to expand: An estimated £900m of EBITDA Ebitda 12,039 4.9 12,578 4.1 13,022 5.1 headwinds in FY17 should be more than offset by structural margin EPS 4.53 10.9 5.56 6.7 6.41 22.1 Source: Berenberg estimates benefits (faster-growing high-margin segments like AMAP and cable), operating leverage (as project Spring cost growth starts to slow) and Share data efficiency gains (on direct costs, customer costs, and IT and technology Shares outstanding (m) 26,692 costs). We expect group margins to expand by 210bp to 30.4% by FY19. Enterprise value (GBP m) 92,807 ● Higher capex is good capex: Following higher capex guidance from Daily trading volume 42,900,000 management we have raised our cumulative three-year capex by £2.4bn to £20.7bn for FY17-19, with an average three-year capex/sales of 15.6%. Absolute capex will still fall by c20% in FY17. Increased capex will be spent on 4G densification and fibre backhaul in Europe, 4G expansion in AMAP, fibre and DOCSIS 3.1 upgrades in European wireline, and IT transformation. Target areas should benefit both revenues and opex. Despite this higher capex scenario, our FCF estimates for FY17-19 are almost unchanged. Y/E 31/3 ., GBP m 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Sales 42,227 40,973 43,406 44,289 45,076 Interactive model click here to explore EBITDA 11,915 11,612 12,629 13,088 13,683 Operating Profit (adj.) 3,507 3,117 3,697 4,153 4,838 Net Income (adj.) 1,471 1,344 1,342 1,582 2,089 EPS (recurring) 5.55 5.04 5.03 5.93 7.83 DPS 11.22 11.45 11.68 11.91 12.15 Capex (accrued) -9,197 -8,599 -6,894 -6,834 -6,936 Spectrum Investment -443 -2,944 -2,570 -570 -341 FCF (company defined) 1,088 1,013 3,109 4,308 4,616 Net Debt 22,271 29,175 32,750 32,399 31,573 GBPEUR= 1.28 1.37 1.27 1.27 1.27 Ratios * there may be a delay for the new estimates to be PE (Adj.) 40.8 44.7 44.9 38.1 28.8 updated on the interactive model Dividend Yield 4.9% 5.1% 5.3% 5.4% 5.5% EV/EBITDA (Berenberg adj.) 7.9 8.0 7.4 7.1 6.8 EV/OpFCF (Berenberg adj.) 14.5 15.8 13.1 14.1 13.2 FCFE Yield (normalised) 7.3% 6.2% 7.0% 7.2% 7.6% FCF Yield (Berenberg adj.) 6.0% 5.2% 5.8% 6.0% 6.3% Capex/Sales 21.8% 21.0% 15.9% 15.4% 15.4% Source: Company data, Berenberg Paul Marsch Laura Janssens Julia Thannheiser Analyst Analyst Specialist Sales +44 20 3207 7857 +44 20 3465 2639 +44 20 3465 2676 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Vodafone Group plc Telecommunications BUY Investment thesis Reuters VOD.L ● We think operating trends at Vodafone will continue to improve, 1 June 2016 driven by rising smartphone and 4G penetration, an improving Bloomberg VOD LN customer mix and a gradual move towards pricing stabilisation. Current price Price target ● Vodafone’ s cash flow and returns, which have been depressed in Market cap ( GBP m) 60,057 recent years, should recover strongly from FY 17 onwards, as the GBP 2.31 GBP 2.50 project Spring investment cycle comes to an end. 31/05/2016 London Close EV ( GBP m) 92,807 42,900,00 ● Vodafone shares offer a relatively attractive dividend yield at c5%, Trading volume 0 among the highest of its peer group. As cash flow recovers, the era Free float 100.0 % of the dividend being paid out of Verizon Wireless disposal proceeds will end, and ca sh flow cover of the dividend will move Non-institutional shareholders Share performance into positive territory, reducing the risk of a change in dividend policy. None > 1% High 52 weeks GBP 2.55 Low 52 weeks GBP 2.00 ● Valuation is highly sensitive to smartphone and 4G penetration and ARPU assumptions. Business description Performance relative to We value Vodafone based on a DCF/SOTP valuation model. Mobile network operator with operations in SXXP SXKP ● Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. 1mth 4.2% 2.3% 3mth 1.5% 5.0% 12mth 5.1% 4.2% Profit and loss summary Cash flow summary GBP m 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E GBP m 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenues 42,227 40,973 43,406 44,289 45,076 EBITDA 11,915 11,612 12,629 13,088 13,683 EBITDA 11,915 11,612 12,629 13,088 13,683 Capex -8,435 -8,910 -7,694 -6,834 -6,936 EBITA - - - - - Dividends to subsidiaries -22 -156 -156 -144 -133 EBIT 3,507 3,117 3,697 4,153 4,838 Other -1,375 -507 -626 -705 -926 Associates contribution -63 44 90 98 110 FCF to the firm 2,083 2,039 4,153 5,404 5,688 Net interest -1,290 -1,375 -1,393 -1,462 -1,429 Net interest -995 -1,026 -1,045 -1,096 -1,072 Tax -569 -175 -633 -739 -925 FCFE 1,088 1,013 3,109 4,308 4,616 Minorities -177 -223 -330 -370 -395 Acquisitions, disposals -7,184 -7 -1,087 -300 -300 Net income adj. 1,471 1,344 1,342 1,582 2,089 Other investment CF 895 -1,968 0 0 0 EPS reported 5.55 5.04 5.03 5.93 7.83 Dividends paid -2,927 -2,998 -3,027 -3,087 -3,149 EPS adjusted 5.55 5.04 5.03 5.93 7.83 Buybacks, issuance 0 0 0 0 0 Year end shares 26,615 26,692 26,692 26,692 26,692 Change in net debt -8,571 -6,904 -3,575 351 826 Average shares 26,615 26,692 26,692 26,692 26,692 Net debt 22,271 29,175 32,750 32,399 31,573 DPS 11.22 11.45 11.68 11.91 12.15 FCF per share 4.09 3.80 11.65 16.14 17.29 Growth and margins Key ratios 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue growth 10.1% -3.0% 5.9% 2.0% 1.8% Net debt / equity 32.9% 43.3% 49.9% 50.5% 50.1% EBITDA growth 7.5% -2.5% 8.8% 3.6% 4.5% Net debt / EBITDA 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.3 EBIT growth -18.6% -11.1% 18.6% 12.3% 16.5% Avg cost of debt 5.5% 4.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% EPS adj growth -27.8% -9.2% -0.2% 17.9% 32.0% Tax rate 29.4% 15.1% -29.1% -28.5% -27.8% FCF growth -74.0% -6.9% 206.9% 38.6% 7.1% Interest cover 9.2 8.4 9.1 9.0 9.6 EBITDA margin 28.2% 28.3% 29.1% 29.6% 30.4% Payout ratio 203.0% 226.6% 232.2% 201.0% 155.2% EBIT margin 8.3% 7.6% 8.5% 9.4% 10.7% ROCE 2.5% 2.8% 5.6% 7.3% 8.4% Net income margin 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 3.6% 4.6% Capex / sales 21.8% 21.0% 15.9% 15.4% 15.4% FCF margin 2.6% 2.5% 7.2% 9.7% 10.2% Capex / depreciation 101.1% 104.3% 85.3% 75.7% 77.4% Valuation metrics Key risks to our investment thesis 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E ● FX is a key risk.
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