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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Friday, February 1, 2019 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Friday, February 1, 2019 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group ECONOMIC Devry Boughner Vorwerk Which Candidate Brazil, China to Corporate VP, Global Corporate Affairs Cargill Begin High-Level Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Has the Edge Trade Talks JPMorgan Chase & Co. The two countries are expected to Marlene Fernández start the talks this year, their first Corporate Vice President for in Guatemala? such meetings since 2015. The Government Relations, Arcos Dorados move is likely to boost agricultural Peter Hakim trade. President Emeritus, Page 2 Inter-American Dialogue Donna Hrinak President, Boeing Latin America BUSINESS Jon Huenemann Vale Seeks to Start Vice President, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, Philip Morris International Paying Victims James R. Jones Chairman, of Dam Disaster Monarch Global Strategies The Brazilian mining giant is Craig A. Kelly seeking a deal with Mina Gerais Director, Americas International State to begin paying damages Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil Among the hopefuls ahead of Guatemala’s presidential election is former First Lady Sandra Torres. // File Photo: Facebook site of Sandra Torres. to victims of a deadly dam failure John Maisto last week. Director, U.S. Education Finance Group Campaigns have been shaping up ahead of Guatemala’s Page 3 Nicolás Mariscal Chairman, presidential election scheduled for June 16. Candidates POLITICAL Grupo Marhnos include former First Lady Sandra Torres, who was the Thomas F. McLarty III Q runner-up in 2015, and Zury Ríos, daughter of former Guaidó Wins Chairman, McLarty Associates strongman Efraín Ríos Montt. Meanwhile, 47 U.S. lawmakers from the Recognition Carl Meacham Democratic Party recently asked U.S. President Donald Trump to cut From European Associate VP for Latin America Int’l Advocacy Division, PhRMA assistance to Guatemala and impose sanctions against allegedly corrupt Parliament Carlos Paz-Soldan officials in Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales’ government. Morales The European Parliament voted to Partner, DTB Associates, LLP is constitutionally prohibited from running for a second term. Who are recognize Juan Guaidó as Venezu- ela’s president. At the same time, Beatrice Rangel the most prominent presidential candidates in Guatemala, and how has Director, the 35-year-old opposition leader AMLA Consulting LLC the race been developing? What issues and factors will be the most laid out his plan for reversing Jaana Remes decisive in the coming months? Will U.S. policy toward Guatemala play a President Nicolás Maduro’s Partner, role in the elections? policies. McKinsey Global Institute Page 2 Ernesto Revilla Head of Latin American Economics, Citi Arturo Matute, Guatemala-based analyst: “This year’s Gustavo Roosen election may institutionalize the struggle to establish the rule Chairman of the Board, Envases Venezolanos of law or entrench the traditional corrupt system under which Andrés Rozental development has been stunted. The anti-corruption wave President, Rozental & A that toppled the government in 2015 became a threat to the status quo, Asociados and Senior Policy Advisor, Chatham House but President Jimmy Morales’ turn against the International Commis- Shelly Shetty sion Against Impunity, or CICIG, benefits a conservative comeback. The Head of Sovereign Ratings, Latin America, Fitch National Unity of Hope (UNE) party’s Sandra Torres, who placed second Roberto Sifon-Arevalo in the past elections, is the candidate to beat. She has cultivated support Managing Director, Americas Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, in rural areas and is known as a relentless administrator. Recurrent can- Standard & Poor’s didates Zury Ríos, Alejandro Giammattei and Mario Estrada are the most prominent of a crowd of hopefuls. All, though, are considered represen- Guaidó // File Photo: Venezuelan Government. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2019, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Friday, February 1, 2019 POLITICAL NEWS are going to clean up this economic crisis and NEWS BRIEFS create jobs.” On Thursday, Guaidó also warned European Parliament Venezuela’s feared Special Action Force state Leaders of Colombia’s ELN security agency to stay away from his family, Vow to Remain in Cuba Recognizes Guaidó as the Associated Press reported. The opposition leader accused agents of showing up at his Leaders of the National Liberation Army, or Venezuela’s President apartment while his 20-month-old daughter ELN, rebel group said on Thursday that they was inside the home. “I hold you responsible would not leave Cuba unless Colombian The European Parliament voted Thursday to for anything that might happen to my baby,” President Iván Duque fulfills the conditions his recognize Venezuelan National Assembly said Guaidó as his wife stood alongside him. predecessor had agreed to for their return to leader Juan Guaidó as the country’s presi- “Children are sacred,” Guaidó told a crowd of Colombia, Reuters reported. Duque in January dent, Reuters reported. The move came more supporters. “Wives are sacred. So don’t cross reactivated Interpol red alert notices against than a week after Guaidó declared himself that red line.” In a posting on Twitter, Venezue- the guerrillas after a car bombing in Bogotá the country’s interim president and followed la’s police denied that agents went to Guaidó’s killed 21 people and the ELN claimed responsi- official recognition by other countries in home, calling his claim “totally FALSE.” Earlier bility. Cuba refused Duque’s request to capture Latin America and the United States. During a this week, Venezuela’s Supreme Court, which ELN leaders in the Caribbean nation. special session in Brussels, European Union is loyal to Maduro, barred Guaidó from leaving lawmakers voted 439-104 with 88 abstentions the country, and Chief Prosecutor Tarek William to recognize Guaidó as the South American Saab, an ally of Maduro, launched an investiga- Chile’s Codelco country’s president. In a statement accom- tion of Guaidó. [Editor’s note: See related Q&A panying the nonbinding vote, the European in Tuesday’s Advisor.] Reaches Deal With Parliament also urged the 28 nations of the Workers to Avert Strike European Union to recognize Guaidó as “the Chilean state-run copper miner Codelco said only legitimate interim president” until Venezu- ECONOMIC NEWS on Thursday it had reached a deal with the ela holds “new free, transparent and credible supervisors’ union at its Gabriela Mistral mine presidential elections.” European Union Brazil, China to Start in northern Chile to boost workers’ salaries by governments, though divided about recogniz- 1 percent, avoiding a strike, Reuters reported. ing Guaidó as president, also agreed to lead High-Level Trade Codelco said it had also offered a signing an international crisis group along with South bonus of between $5,200 and $6,400. The American governments to seek new elections Talks This Year supervisors’ union last week dismissed the in Venezuela. Also on Thursday, Guaidó spoke company’s proposal for a new collective labor to an auditorium packed with supporters at a Brazil is expected to restart high-level trade agreement. The Gabriela Mistral mine pro- Venezuelan university to outline his plan for talks with China later this year, the first such duced 96,500 metric tons in the first 11 months reversing President Nicolás Maduro’s econom- meetings since 2015, Brazilian agriculture of 2018. ic policies and address the Andean nation’s trade secretary told Reuters on Thursday. humanitarian crisis, The Wall Street Journal The China-Brazil High-Level Coordination and reported. “We have to create confidence in the Cooperation Committee, or Cosban, is “very country,” said Guaidó. “This isn’t a problem probable” for the second half of this year, Wells Fargo Bringing 17 of left or right, but a humanitarian problem.” Secretary Orlando Leite Riberio said. Ribeiro New Funds to Colombia Guaidó said his plan included seeking financial handles trade and international relations at the Wells Fargo Asset Management is bringing 17 aid from multilateral organizations, using Brazilian Agriculture Ministry. Cosban, which new funds to investors in Colombia through bilateral loans, restructuring Venezuela’s was last convened under former President an agreement with its distribution partner, Bci debt and bringing private investment into the Dilma Rousseff, is likely to increase farm trade Asset Management, Citywire reported Thurs- country’s oil sector. Guaidó also called for between the two countries. “Our expectation is day. Bci, which is based in Chile, has secured eliminating currency controls and privatizing that this will result in openings. This is a very regulatory approval in Colombia to market the state assets. Additionally, Guaidó said his plan important year with China, we will have Cos- funds, which include ones focused on Chinese would guarantee basic public services, such as ban, so I want to believe that this year we will equities, as well as short/long strategies, electricity and running water, and would also have good news, major advancements,” Ribeiro according to a regulatory filing. Wells Fargo seek to boost the private sector and eliminate said. He added that the talks should help the confirmed that it and Bci had a distribution wasteful government subsidies. “Here, no one two countries advance on issues such as per- agreement, but it did not comment further, wants to be given anything,” said Guaidó. “We
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