ENERGY ADVISOR a WEEKLY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE July 9, 2021

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR ENERGY ADVISOR A WEEKLY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org July 9, 2021

BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TOP NEWS Nigel Blackaby Global Head, OIL & GAS International Arbitration Group, Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer What Does the Mexican Gov’t Jeffrey Davidow Senior Counselor, Grants Pemex The Cohen Group Future Hold for Control of Jonathan C. Hamilton Disputed Deposit Partner, White & Case Peru’s Oil & Gas? The Mexican Energy Secretariat Raul Herrera granted state oil company Pemex Partner, control of a major shared oil find Corporate & Securities Practice, over the private consortium that Arnold & Porter made the discovery in 2017. James R. Jones Page 2 Chairman, Monarch Global Strategies OIL & GAS Jorge Kamine Partner, Corporate & Financial Services, Argentina Natural Willkie Farr & Gallagher Gas Output Craig A. Kelly Risks Deficit Senior Director, Americas Int’l Gov’t Relations, Socialist Pedro Castillo, whose party has called for nationalizing mining and hydrocarbon Argentina’s natural gas output Exxon Mobil assets as well as power plants, is expected to be Peru’s next president. // File Photo: TV Perú. might sink into a deficit that Jorge León could reach $1 billion due to local Energy Economist, natural gas shortfalls. BP Socialist Pedro Castillo is expected to win Peru’s presiden- Page 3 Jeremy Martin tial election following a tight-knit race against right-wing Vice President, Energy & Sustainability, Institute of the Americas rival Keiko Fujimori and a delay in the official announcement OIL & GAS Larry Pascal Q over Fujimori’s fraud allegations. The platform of Castillo’s Major Firms to Chairman, Americas Practice Group, Perú Libre party calls for nationalizing mining and hydrocarbon assets, Start Drilling in Haynes & Boone as well as power plants, although Castillo has recently tempered that Colombia: Mesa R. Kirk Sherr position, saying he is not planning nationalizations or expropriations. President, Colombian Energy Minister Diego Clearview Strategy Group What can Peru’s energy sector expect of a Castillo presidency? To what Mesa said in an interview that Mark Thurber extent will Perú Libre’s more radical proposals become policy, and what international oil companies includ- Partner, role will Congress and courts play in balancing the party’s more radical ing Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil Hunton Andrews Kurth and Repsol are focusing on the positions? What are the major implications of Castillo’s energy priorities, Alexandra Valderrama Andean nation’s offshore poten- Director, not only for Peru’s economy and for businesses operating there, but also tial. The firms are set to start International Government Affairs, drilling there this and next year. Chevron for the country’s progress away from fossil fuels as energy sources? Page 2 Jose L. Valera Partner, Pedro Francke, economic advisor to Pedro Castillo, and Mayer Brown LLP Lisa Viscidi Humberto Campodónico, professor at Universidad Nacional Program Director, Mayor de San Marcos: “Candidate Pedro Castillo has said Inter-American Dialogue that there will be no nationalizations or expropriations of Vanessa Wottrich A Principal Analyst for Latin America, companies, including in the mining and hydrocarbons sectors, during his Equinor time in office. In the mining sector, which is seeing a significant rise in metal prices, he has proposed that the Peruvian state participate in this extraordinary income, either through a royalty, an extraordinary tax or an income tax. In the hydrocarbons sector, the recovery of sovereignty over the destination of natural resources is important. The gas export contract for Block 56 will be renegotiated, as will the mechanisms for the export Mesa // File Photo: Colombian Continued on page 3 Government.

OIL AND GAS NEWS earlier last week Mesa announced that Colom- NEWS BRIEFS bia is planning to launch a plan to develop the Major Firms to Start production and use of hydrogen as an energy Brazil’s Northeast Region source, Mesa told Reuters in an interview. The Hits Records for Wind, Drilling in Colombia government in September is set to publish a road map for the next 30 years establishing the Solar Power Generation This, Next Year: Mesa production, use and export of hydrogen, Mesa Brazil’s northeast region last week registered said. Colombia has the sixth-largest quantity of new records of wind and solar power gen- Some of the world’s largest oil companies renewable water resources in the world, which eration of 10,856 megawatt peak and 681 have plans to start drilling in Colombia this Mesa said would put it in an ideal position average megawatts, respectively, Renewables and next year, Energy Minister Diego Mesa told to produce green hydrogen, which is made Now reported, citing data from the National Bloomberg News in an interview published July by splitting water. Mesa added it would also Electric System Operator. At the time of peak 1. Mesa said Royal Dutch Shell is set to start produce blue hydrogen, which is made when generation, electricity from the region’s wind drilling off the coast of the Andean nation this natural gas is split into its component parts, parks met 96 percent of demand at the time. year, while ExxonMobil and Spain’s Repsol, according to the report. “There is significant Meanwhile, solar power during peak generation in addition to Colombian state oil company interest from some companies from Germany” only reached 6.4 percent of the region’s needs. Ecopetrol, plan to do so in 2022. “Internation- in developing green hydrogen in Colombia, Mesa told Bloomberg News. “They have been very active about looking at the potential of India’s IOC Buys Crude Mesa expects oil produ- Colombia to supply green hydrogen,” he added. Mesa also told the news service that Colombia From Guyana’s Liza Field tion to rebound to 790,000 expects to award renewable energy contracts as it Diversifies Options barrels per day this year. in October for projects with at least 5 mega- India’s largest state-controlled refiner, IOC, has watts of capacity to supply industrial users acquired crude from Guyana’s Liza field as part and large companies starting in 2023. [Editor’s of a broader strategy to expand its purchase al oil companies are more focused on the note: See related Q&A on Colombia’s oil sector options, IOC Chairman Shrikant Vaidya said offshore potential,” Mesa said in the interview. in the June 11 issue of the Energy Advisor and last week, Argus Media reported. “We have “They are working on getting the rigs for next a Q&A on President Iván Duque’s renewable en- procured one Suezmax of Guyanese Liza year.” Spokespeople for Exxon and Repsol did ergy policies in the Dec. 4 issue of the Energy crude,” Vaidya said, adding that IOC is the first not immediately respond to the news service’s Advisor.] Indian state refiner to buy crude from the South request for comment. Companies including American nation. IOC is looking at buying more Brazilian state firm Petrobras have found oil Liza crude “if the economics work,” as the and gas in Colombia’s deep water, but none of Mexican Gov’t Grants company usually seeks new grades to increase the fields have begun production. Exploration the number of available crude procurement and development offshore Colombia is crucial Pemex Control of options, a source told Argus Media. for the country to reverse dwindling oil and gas Zama Discovery reserves and strengthen energy security in the near future, according to the report. Output in Mexico’s government has designated state oil the Andean nation has fallen in recent months, firm Pemex to run a major shared oil find over Petrobras Raises $2.3 Bn in part because of roadblocks set up during a private consortium led Houston-based Talos From Secondary Offering massive, nationwide anti-government protests. Energy, which first discovered the crude and in BR Distribuidora Production dropped below 700,000 barrels has largely invested in the deposit, The Wall per day (bpd) in the second week of May, the Street Journal reported Monday. The Energy Brazilian state oil company Petrobras raised lowest level since 2009. Likewise, amid the Secretariat handed Pemex management con- 11.4 billion reais ($2.3 billion) from a second- pandemic, average oil production last year fell trol of the so-called Zama joint development ary offering of its remaining 37.5 percent stake 12 percent from the previous year to 781,3000 after the two companies failed to come to an in BR Distribuidora, a move that could pave bpd. The energy minister expects production agreement. Talos, which made the oil discovery the way for more refinery sales, Argus Media to rebound in coming months and reach an in 2017, argues it should be the operator of the reported last week. Petrobras’ board of direc- average of 790,000 bpd for the year. The hike development. It was the first major oil discov- tors priced individual BR Distribuidora shares in oil prices this year has encouraged more ery by foreign companies in Mexico since the at 26 reais each, according to a securities onshore drilling, Mesa said. In related news, 2014 energy reforms that opened the sector to filing. Shares started trading on the São Paulo exchange B3 on July 2, according to the report.

foreign and private investment. The Talos-led FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 consortium initially won the exploration and production contract in a 2015 oil auction. The of this gas, in which the Peruvian state does Gasoducto al Sur. Neither his political party’s deposit is believed to hold some 700 million not currently participate. Moreover, a Nation- original ideology nor his recent statements barrels of oil and is thought to overlap into al Natural Gas Massification Authority will be provide a coherent vision to face the energy an adjacent block that Pemex owns, Reuters established to promote the construction of sector’s problems, which have accumulated reported. Talos said in a statement that it a national network of pipelines and a single during a decade of inaction. From the outset, was “very disappointed” by the secretariat’s policy of subsidies and prices at the national those who take the reins of the sector decision, adding that it would look into all legal level, which does not exist now. Likewise, are going to come up against the harsh and strategic options to maximize value for its the government will promote the modern- reality of rising costs of fuel imports and the shareholders at Zama, the wire service report- ization and strengthening of Petroperú, with accumulation of lots without operators with ed. The company and its partners have invest- its entry into oil exploration and production ed nearly $350 million in the project and have (upstream) in Block 192 and Block 64, both drilled four exploratory wells so far. Pemex has owned by the company, as well as in the not started drilling on its side of the shared Talara blocks, which are close to maturity. More than in any other deposit. The government’s decision comes as Special interest will be placed in the mod- sector, populism in en- President Andrés Manuel López Obrador con- ernization of the Nor Peruano pipeline. This ergy would be suicide.” tinues his attempt to reverse key parts of the policy will scrupulously respect the environ- — Eleodoro Mayorga energy reform. [Editor’s note: See related Q&A ment, as well as the rights of Indigenous in the June 25 issue of the Advisor.] communities. Peru is a signatory of COP-15 and, last December, the new National Adap- tation Plan was approved for Peru to comply Argentina’s Natural with being a carbon-neutral country by 2050. environmental liabilities and social conflicts Pedro Castillo’s government will promote the that are difficult to resolve. This will force Gas Output Risks energy transition by relaunching renewable them to decide on a course of action. It is Sinking Into Deficit energies (mainly solar and wind power). To expected that, to gain popular support and do this, it is essential to have a long-term deal with Congress, they will not fall into the Argentina might sink into an energy deficit that energy plan to change the current energy temptation of subsidizing fuels, nor extreme could reach $1 billion due to local natural gas matrix. Finally, it should be noted that the measures on environmental protection shortfalls that have forced the country to turn government will promote the participation that would leave oil and gas reserves to more costly imports of liquefied natural gas, of the private sector in all areas of mining underground while pleasing Indigenous and or LNG, Reuters reported last week. While Ar- and energy policy. In both fields, there are anti-industry activists, nor naïvely copying gentina’s oil production has strongly rebounded bills already being discussed that will be the Bolivian gas development model and from stalling levels last year amid the pandem- analyzed by our government for their proper renegotiating contracts with tax-collection ic, gas output has continued to lag. Oil output implementation.” goals beyond reasonable levels. More than recovered faster thanks to policies including a in any other sector, populism in energy higher local so-called “criollo barrel price” that Eleodoro Mayorga, oil and gas would be suicide. The first problem the new protected producers, according to the report. consultant and former minister government must overcome is the lack of a However, a domestic price freeze on gas, which of energy and mines in Peru: medium- and long-term strategic plan that is used for cooking and heating, pushed firms A “A growing number of analysts allows prioritizing, and more importantly away from natural gas production, Reuters agree that Castillo will be proclaimed presi- financing, projects required to undertake the reported. Former energy officials and analysts dent amid a dramatic polarization of social energy transition, taking advantage of the told the wire service that government efforts classes in Peru. A majority of Congress will country’s enormous primary resources. The to revive gas output came too late for winter radically oppose his proposals. Castillo has second is the capacity of public institutions demand, which drove a need to import LNG. “It issued conciliatory messages about preserv- and companies in the sector both to formu- was too late to get the gas for the [Southern ing macroeconomic policy and not proceed- late policies and execute them. The hope Hemisphere] winter,” José Luis Sureda, the ing with expropriations and nationalizations. remains that the new government will act country’s former secretary of hydrocarbon In general, Castillo and his supporters have with caution, without falling into provoca- resources, told Reuters. “All of 2020 there was advanced the idea of governing for the poor. tions and with technical support.” no activity,” he added. Natural gas production The only project they have mentioned is the Continued on page 6 in the first two months of this year fell by

COPYRIGHT © 2021, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 3 LATIN AMERICA ENERGY ADVISOR July 9, 2021 nearly 11 percent as compared to the same period last year, to 115 million cubic meters per ADVISOR Q&A day, Natural Gas Intel reported earlier this year, citing the energy secretariat. Will Protests Heat Up in Ecuador, Colombia Colombia in Coming Months? Energy Ministers Anti-government protests in the presidential campaign is underway. In Discuss Cooperation Colombia could grow in the this context, the government’s strategy in second half of this year if the the short term is to deny the discontent Q government and lawmakers fail Ecuador’s new energy minister, Juan Carlos and the human rights violations committed Bermeo, met with Colombian Energy Minister to adequately address economic and social by security forces, instead waiting for the Diego Mesa last week to discuss cooperation demands, Francisco Maltés, the president mobilizations to die out on their own, in between the two countries with the aim of of the Central Union of Workers (CUT), the hopes of creating minimal disruptions boosting their energy and mining sectors, EFE said recently. Protest leaders suspended for the ruling party candidate. The problem reported, citing Ecuador’s energy ministry. In marches earlier in June as they worked on with this approach is that, in the long term, the meeting, the two officials discussed pol- proposals to present to Congress for the it leaves the root causes unaddressed and icies needed for an energy transition and the legislative period beginning July 20. What creates a ticking time bomb. In the second strengthening of the hydrocarbons sector while types of legislation surrounding economic half of the year, we are likely to see sporadic considering sustainability, efficiency, compet- and social demands have the best chances bursts of protests and continued conflict itiveness and transparency, the Ecuadorean for passage after Congress reconvenes? at local levels. Barring any extraordinary ministry said. They also discussed good busi- How likely are protests to continue and events, the momentum for massive national ness practices and good corporate governance grow in Colombia in the coming months, mobilizations is dwindling, temporarily. We as well as ways to promote “transformation and what political, social and economic are likely to continue seeing a response from and innovation,” Bermeo said, EFE reported. consequences would such demonstra- the government that relies on the excessive Ecuadorean President Guillermo Lasso tapped tions bring for the country, as well as its use of force for two reasons. The first is a Bermeo to head the energy and nonrenewable businesses and investors? What safeguards long-entrenched institutional culture among resources ministry last month. exist in Colombia to prevent excessive use security forces and many elites, which of force by police responding to protests? understand militarized response as the most appropriate way to deal with citizen Argentina Seeking to Sandra Botero, professor in the protests. The second is the way in which School of International, Political that institutional culture has been empow- Sanction Oil Firms and Urban Studies and director ered and reinvigorated by the central role Near Falkland Islands A of the Desafíos Magazine at and wide latitude police have been given in the Universidad del Rosario in Bogotá: “The enforcing lockdowns and other measures Argentina’s government has begun a process discontent among important sectors of the that curtail civil liberties amid the Covid-19 of sanctioning several international firms that it Colombian population will continue to brew, pandemic.” says are illegally drilling for oil in an area near even if the economy begins to show some the disputed Falkland Islands, which are run signs of recovery, because the problems are by Britain but over which the South Ameri- serious, and the government refuses to open EDITOR’S NOTE: More commentary on this can nation also claims sovereignty, Reuters spaces for discussion or initiate reforms. topic appears in the Q&A of Wednesday’s reported. Argentine Energy Secretary Darío Duque’s government is politically weak (the issue of the Latin America Advisor. Martínez said Wednesday that the government president is extremely unpopular and does would seek sanctions against U.K.-based not control his coalition in Congress), and Chrysaor Holdings, Harbour Energy and Israeli firm Navitas Petroleum. The country between requested any type of authorization,” Martínez lands, which the South American country calls 2011 and 2015 already sanctioned eight other said at a press conference. He also said they Malvinas and claims as part of its territory. The firms. Reuters could not immediately reach were operating with illegal licenses from the dispute led to a short war in 1982 in which 255 the companies for comment. “The companies “illegitimate authorities of the Falkland Islands. British troops and about 650 Argentine soldiers are not authorized to operate nor have they Argentina and Britain long clashed over the is- were killed, Reuters reported. Argentina’s cur-

NEWS BRIEFS rent government of President Alberto Fernán- was flown to Miami for treatment. Video from dez has recently ramped up rhetoric over the WPLG Local 10 television in Florida showed Díaz Granados Named islands, appointing a Malvinas minister and Martine Moïse on a stretcher being taken out New Head of CAF saying it would redraw maps to emphasize the of a plane and wheeled into a private ambu- country’s claim over the Falklands at schools, lance at Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport. She Development Bank as well as lobbying at the United Nations. Last was being treated for severe injuries, the tele- Sergio Díaz Granados, a Colombian, will be the month, the government granted state energy vision station reported. The president’s killing next head of CAF Development Bank of Latin firm Integración Energética de Argentina, or is expected to bring more chaos to Haiti, which America, according to a statement published IEASA, a permit to explore for oil and gas off was already suffering from a rash of violence, on the institution’s website on Monday, the coast of the country’s Patagonia region, soaring inflation and protests demanding that Bloomberg News reported. Díaz Granados, near the Falkland Islands, Cronista reported. Moïse step down, accusing him of increasing who is currently Colombia’s executive director However, the area is near but outside the authoritarianism, The Guardian reported. [Edi- at the Inter-American Development Bank, beat disputed territory. tor’s note: See related Q&A in the May 5 issue Argentine Christian Asinelli in the vote, which of the daily Latin America Advisor.] took place in Mexico. CAF’s former president, Luis Carranza, resigned in March a year ahead POLITICAL NEWS of his term’s official end. ECONOMIC NEWS Police Kill Four Brazil’s Economy El Salvador’s Attorney Suspected Assassins General Seizes Some of Haitian President Minister Eyes 20% Opposition Assets Tax on Dividends The attorney general’s office in El Salvador Haiti’s police chief said Wednesday that said Friday that it had seized some assets of authorities had killed four people suspected Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes will conservative opposition party ARENA as part of taking part in the assassination of Presi- push for the tax rate on dividends to be set at of what it called an attempt to recover embez- dent Jovenel Moïse and captured two others, 20 percent in a government reform proposal zled funds from a donation by Taiwan between the Associated Press reported. The police sent to Congress, but sources close to him 2003 and 2004, Reuters reported. Specialized chief, Léon Charles, said late in the day that told Bloomberg News that negotiations with officials, and police agents guarding them, the suspects were killed and captured in an lawmakers might see that figure come down raided the party’s main headquarters and apparent hostage-taking situation, adding to 15 percent. The government’s proposal seized two buildings and 17 vehicles. The at- that three police officers who had been taken of 20 percent has seen huge pushback from torney general’s office also froze about a total hostage were freed, the wire service reported. investors, which might end up pressuring the of $3.9 billion in funds that ARENA received The country’s interim prime minister, Claude economy ministry to lower it to 15 percent, a per vote in the February legislative election. Joseph, said Haitian police and military were in person close to Guedes with knowledge of the charge of security in the country. After Moïse’s matter told the news service. Brazil is one of assassination early Wednesday morning at his the few countries in the world that exempts residence, Joseph declared a “state of siege,” dividends from taxes, The Rio Times reported. Uruguay Eyes Bilateral saying he did not want the country to “plunge Guedes has said the exemption benefits only Trade Deals Independent into chaos,” CNN reported. He said the decision the wealthy. “Nobody needs to be ashamed of Mercosur Bloc was made Wednesday morning at an extraor- of being rich, but they need to be ashamed of dinary council of cabinet ministers. A state of not paying dividend tax,” Guedes said during Uruguay plans to proceed with negotiations to siege closes Haiti’s borders and temporarily im- an online event last Friday. “Only Brazil and reach bilateral trade agreements independently poses martial law, with Haiti’s National Police Lithuania have this deformation, which we are of the Mercosur bloc, Foreign Minister Fran- and the military empowered to enforce the law. correcting,” he added. The government two cisco Bustillo said Wednesday, MercoPress “Please stay calm and let the authorities do weeks ago sent an income tax reform package reported. Mercosur, which also includes Brazil, their work. We don’t want the country to plunge to Congress. The proposal calls for a 20 per- Argentina and Paraguay, currently has strict into chaos. This is a very sad day for our nation cent tax on dividends as well as a 5 percentage rules that require member countries to reach a and for our people,” Joseph said in an on-cam- point reduction in corporate taxes for two consensus among themselves before any one era statement, vowing to “bring the killers years. Guedes has said the 20 percent rate is country can establish preferential tariffs with a of the president to justice.” Haiti’s first lady, “quite moderate,” adding that complaints are third party or bloc. Martine Moïse, was wounded in the attack and “natural.”

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 3 LATIN AMERICA ENERGY ADVISOR is published weekly by the Inter-American Dialogue ISSN 2163-7962 Larry Gumbiner senior advisor an option. We won’t know for certain what for Latin America at West- a Pedro Castillo presidency will bring until Erik Brand Exec Advisors and president he is in the House of Pizarro. But best bets Publisher [email protected] of Gumbiner Inter-American are for a slight progressive shift rather than A Gene Kuleta Strategies: “Resource nationalism helped dramatic changes to the sector.” Editor catapult Pedro Castillo to the verge of the [email protected] presidency. He won handily in regions where Beatriz de la Vega, partner at Anastasia Chacón González mining and energy resources predominate. KPMG Peru: “The private sector Reporter & Associate Editor But Castillo is a political blank slate, with no in recent years has demanded [email protected] governance experience and scant ideologi- A regulations related to oil and cal formation beyond simple platitudes. His gas, power and renewables. It requested an union with the Perú Libre Party of committed update of the Organic Hydrocarbons Law to Michael Shifter, President Marxist Vladimir Cerrón is a marriage of con- become more attractive to new investment Rebecca Bill Chavez, Nonresident Senior Fellow venience formed for the election. Castillo’s and provide incentives for investors. It has Bruno Binetti, Nonresident Fellow tack toward the center after the first round also proposed regulations to balance the Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow may reflect his real views or mere expedien- provision of energy, adjustments in the Joan Caivano, Senior Advisor cy to calm markets. He has brought aboard energy matrix, development of distribut- Kevin Casas-Zamora, Nonresident Senior Fellow center-left economist Pedro Francke, walked ed generation and electromobility. In the Julia Dias Leite, Nonresident Senior Fellow context of energy transition, the review of Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program the country’s strategic energy plan and the Sandra García Jaramillo, Nonresident Senior Fellow Best bets are for a role of renewables in climate change goals Selina Ho, Nonresident Senior Fellow slight progressive was also on the agenda. Although Castillo’s Edison Lanza, Nonresident Senior Fellow shift rather than proposals consider sustainable goals and Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow dramatic changes respect for the environment, there are no Margaret Myers, Director, Asia Program to the sector.” concrete proposals regarding increasing the Manuel Orozco, Senior Fellow Xiaoyu Pu, Nonresident Senior Fellow — Larry Gumbiner share of renewable sources in the energy Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow matrix. In general, there are no proposals Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration as to the plan to balance the development Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program back nationalization rhetoric and requested of an internal market and incentives for Denisse Yanovich, Director of Development that Central Bank President Julio Velarde investments using natural gas. In recent stay on. While clearly favoring an expanded days, Castillo has had meetings with repre- Latin America Energy Advisor is published state role in the economy, it is unlikely Cas- sentative associations of the energy sector. weekly, with the exception of some major U.S. holidays, by the Inter-American Dialogue tillo will have political space to move energy It is expected that his energy policies, if he 1155 15th Street NW, Suite 800 sectors sharply leftward. Mining is king in becomes president, would not only focus on Washington, DC 20005 Peru, and he will not want to upset the model renegotiating existing natural gas contracts, www.thedialogue.org dramatically during a period of strong prices. which could affect legal stability, but also on Subscription inquiries are welcomed at [email protected] Continued royalty flows will be needed to analyzing other potential sources of energy fund more expansive social projects and such as hydrogen. A significant increase in The opinions expressed by the members of the Board of help pull Peru out of the Covid-generated government take or an increase of income Advisors and by guest commentators do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. The analysis is the sole recession. Furthermore, Perú Libre controls distribution from the energy sector will be view of each commentator and does not necessarily only 37 seats in the 130-seat Congress, limit- a challenge because new laws about those represent the views of their respective employers or firms. The information in this report has been obtained from ing his capacity to enact radical reforms. matters will need to be discussed in Con- reliable sources, but neither its accuracy and completeness, Castillo has been silent on climate and a gress, where Castillo does not have majority. nor the opinions based thereon, are guaranteed. If you have any questions relating to the contents of this publication, perfunctory nod to renewable technolo- Domestic and international courts will be contact the editorial offices of the Inter-American Dialogue. gies is the most to expect. If he needs to critical for the respect of existing contract- Contents of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written appease leftist constituencies, diverting gas ing condition. In previous disputes, cases permission from the publisher. exports to domestic consumption, which he were resolved in favor of investors. threatened during the campaign, remains