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La Alternancia Político-Electoral En Paraguay: La Elección De Fernando Lugo Y La Caída Del Partido Colorado (2008)

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La Alternancia Político-Electoral En Paraguay: La Elección De Fernando Lugo Y La Caída Del Partido Colorado (2008) Los artículos publicados en esta revista son arbitrados y avalados por el sistema de pares académicos, bajo la modalidad de doble ciego. Fecha de impresión: enero de 2018 Año XVII, número 58 enero-junio 2018, semestral Editora responsable: Isabel Núñez Garduño Núm. de Certificado de Reserva de Derechos de Uso Exclusivo de Título: 04-2008-051319002200-102 Núm. de Certificado de Licitud de Título: 11490 Núm. de Certificado de Licitud de Contenido: 8071 ISSN: 1665-0921 Domicilio de la publicación y del distribuidor: Instituto Electoral del Estado de México, Paseo Tollocan núm. 944, col. Santa Ana Tlapaltitlán, C. P. 50160. Toluca, Estado de México. Tel. (01 722) 275 73 00, ext. 4300. [email protected], [email protected] aelectorales.ieem.org.mx Los juicios y afirmaciones expresados en los artículos aquí publicados son responsabilidad de los autores, y el Instituto Electoral del Estado de México no los comparte necesariamente. Se prohíbe la reproducción parcial o total del contenido de la revista sin la autorización del editor. Impreso en México Publicación incluida en el directorio y en el catálogo de Latindex, así como en doaj, en Clase, en Biblat y en Redib. Consejo Científico Andrés Malamud Universidad de Lisboa, Portugal Andrés Mejía Acosta King’s College, Inglaterra Daniel Buquet Universidad de la República, Uruguay Diego Reynoso Universidad de San Andrés, Argentina Irma Méndez de Hoyos Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, sede México Iván Llamazares Valduvieco Universidad de Salamanca, España Leticia M. Ruiz Rodríguez Universidad Complutense de Madrid, España Manuel Alcántara Sáez Universidad de Salamanca, España María Laura Tagina Universidad Nacional de San Martín, Argentina Mariana Llanos German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Alemania Peter Birle Instituto Ibero-Americano, Alemania (Berlín) Peter M. Siavelis Universidad de Wake Forest, Estados Unidos de Norteamérica Silvia Gómez Tagle El Colegio de México, México Sonia Alonso Universidad de Georgetown, Qatar Comité Editorial Presidente Pedro Zamudio Godínez Integrantes Francisco Javier López Corral Raúl Ávila Ortiz Pablo Castro Domingo Gloria Jovita Guadarrama Sánchez Ramiro Medrano González Lourdes Morales Canales Martha Elisa Nateras González Secretario Técnico Igor Vivero Avila Índice Investigaciones Un prolongado ciclo eleccionario. 11 Análisis de la aplicación conjunta de primarias abiertas y doble vuelta electoral en los últimos comicios presidenciales en Argentina y Uruguay Adriana Gallo A Long Electoral Cycle. Analysis of the Concurrent Application of Open Primary Elections and Majority Run off System in the Latest Presidential Elections in Argentina and Uruguay Representación parlamentaria, ciudadanía 61 y rendición de cuentas vertical Laura Valencia Escamilla Parliamentary Representation, Citizenry and Vertical Accountability El cambio de los sistemas de partidos 97 en el siglo xxi Manuel Sánchez de Dios The Party Systems Change in the 21st. Century La alternancia político-electoral 133 en Paraguay: la elección de Fernando Lugo y la caída del Partido Colorado (2008) Sarah Patricia Cerna Villagra Juan Mario Solís Delgadillo The Political-electoral Alternation in Paraguay: The Election of Fernando Lugo and the Fall of the Colorado Party (2008) Experiencias de la coordinación 159 ine-ieeh durante la elección del estado de Hidalgo de 2016 Alfonso Leyva González Rubén Flores González Coordination Experiences between INE and IEEH during the Elections in Hidalgo, 2016 Hidalgo: la disputa en 183 la aldea municipal en 2016 Pablo Vargas González Hidalgo: Contention in the Municipal Village in 2016 Las elecciones locales en Baja California: 213 entre el bipartidismo en alternancia y la decepción abstencionista, 1983-2016 Luis Carlos López Ulloa Local Elections in Baja California: Between Bipartisan Alternations and Abstentionist Disappointment, 1983-2016 Textos de Actualidad De la necesidad de conformar un 251 campo de estudio sobre la paridad Daniela Cerva Cerna The Necessity to Form a Field of Study on Parity Movilización y malestar 257 mediático en México Zaray Labastida Mejía Mobilization and Media Malaise in México Año XVII núm. 58 enero-junio 2018 Un prolongado ciclo eleccionario. Análisis de la aplicación conjunta de primarias abiertas y doble vuelta electoral en los últimos comicios presidenciales en Argentina y Uruguay A Long Electoral Cycle. Analysis of the Concurrent Application of Open Primary Elections and Majority Run off System in the Latest Presidential Elections in Argentina and Uruguay Adriana Gallo * Resumen En este trabajo se evalúan las consecuencias de la implementación conjunta de dos instrumentos institucionales —primarias abiertas y sistema de Artículo recibido el 19 de junio de doble vuelta electoral— en Argentina y Uruguay, 2017 y aceptado para su publicación el 19 de septiembre de 2017. La dictami- en donde ambos se adoptaron formalmente. Los nación de este trabajo fue realizada por dos mecanismos formaron parte de las últimas evaluadores externos al Instituto Elec- toral del Estado de México. reformas políticas latinoamericanas y comparten pp. 11-59 propósitos similares. * Es licenciada y doctora en Ciencia Política por la Universidad de Buenos Aires (uba). Labora como investigadora científica y tecnológica del Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (Conicet), categoría adjunta. Sus líneas de investigación son instituciones, partidos políticos y elecciones (enfocados en torno a los mecanismos de nominación de candidaturas partidistas) en América Latina. Correo electrónico: [email protected] 11 ISSN 1665-0921 Se inquiere acerca de los casos mencionados, en los cuales ambas prácti- cas se incorporaron en la legislación nacional y fueron utilizadas simultánea- mente, en una sola ocasión en el primer caso (2015) y en tres en el segundo (1999, 2009, 2014). Se estudia la última elección presidencial celebrada en los países aludidos. Luego, se comparan los resultados, con el objeto de constatar los efectos de la implementación consecutiva de estas normativas sobre el funcionamiento democrático de cada uno de estos Estados. Palabras clave: primarias abiertas, doble vuelta electoral en Argentina y Uruguay, representatividad partidaria. Abstract This paper will evaluate the effects of the concurrent application of two institutional instruments —open primary elections and majority runoff system— in the two countries of Latin America, Argentina and Uruguay, in which both were formally adopted and were implemented in more than one opportunity. Both mechanisms formed part of the latest Latin Ameri- can political reforms and share similar objectives. The two cases mentioned above, in which both practices were incorpo- rated in national legislation, have been used simultaneously only once in the first case (in 2015), and three in the second (1999, 2009 and 2014). In this paper we shall look at the last presidential election held in each case, evaluating the success of the aforementioned common purposes. Subse- quently, we compare the results to ascertain the results of the consecutive implementation of these norms and their effect on democratic functioning in each case. Key words: open primary elections majority run off in Argentina and Uruguay, party representation. 12 Adriana Gallo Año XVII núm. 58 enero-junio 2018 Introducción A partir de la década de los ochenta, pero particularmente desde finales de los noventa —en el marco de la honda crisis sistémica, precipitada tras el fracaso del modelo neoliberal—, emergió en numerosos países de América Latina una profusa agenda de reformas políticas orientadas, principalmente, a incorporar procedimientos institucionales que permitieran contrarrestar los efectos de las políticas neoliberales y mejorar las condiciones de representa- ción, mediante la introducción de modificaciones tanto en la estructura insti- tucional de los países como en el marco determinado por las leyes electorales y partidarias (Zovatto, 2001; Alcántara, 2002; Muñoz, 2003). En este trabajo se indaga acerca de los efectos de dos mecanismos institucionales concretos incluidos en la agenda reformista latinoameri- cana de las últimas décadas, orientada preeminentemente a la competen- cia entre partidos o a la vida interna de éstos (Freidenberg y Dosek, 2016, p. 32). A saber: 1. El método de elecciones primarias o internas abiertas presidencia- les. Estas elecciones internas —a diferencia de las cerradas, que están restringidas a los afiliados acreditados del partido en cues- tión— constituyen un mecanismo de nominación de candidaturas que autoriza a participar en el proceso selectivo a todo ciudadano empadronado en el registro electoral nacional del país (Gallagher y Marsh, 1988; Freidenberg, 2003; Gallo, 2011). 2. El sistema de doble vuelta electoral (dv) o con balotaje (majority run off). Se trata de un método de desempate que señala que el candi- dato debe lograr un porcentaje prefijado en la primera ronda (en general, aunque no siempre, la mayoría absoluta) para vencer en la contienda (Lijphart, 1994; Nohlen, 1996; Kenney, 1998; Martínez, 1998). De no conseguirse, se celebra una segunda elección entre los dos aspirantes más votados (Shugart y Carey, 1992; Jones, 1995). ¿Por qué es relevante el estudio de los efectos de estos dos instrumentos institucionales? El análisis del impacto de ambos mecanismos es significa- pp. 11-59 13 ISSN 1665-0921 tivo, por un lado, porque su incorporación ha sido sugerida, discutida o for- malizada en gran parte de los países del continente (véase
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