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Before the Arkansas Public Service Commission in The

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Before the Arkansas Public Service Commission in The APSC FILED Time: 4/24/2015 1:59:53 PM: Recvd 4/24/2015 1:58:58 PM: Docket 15-015-U-Doc. 56 BEFORE THE ARKANSAS PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION ) OF ENTERGY ARKANSAS, INC. FOR ) DOCKET NO. 15-015-U APPROVAL OF CHANGES IN RATES FOR ) RETAIL ELECTRIC SERVICE ) DIRECT TESTIMONY OF ELLEN LAPSON PRINCIPAL, LAPSON ADVISORY ON BEHALF OF ENTERGY ARKANSAS, INC. APRIL 24, 2015 1 Entergy Arkansas,APSC FILEDInc. Time: 4/24/2015 1:59:53 PM: Recvd 4/24/2015 1:58:58 PM: Docket 15-015-U-Doc. 56 Direct Testimony of Ellen Lapson Docket No. 15-015-U 1 I. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 2 Q. PLEASE STATE YOUR NAME, OCCUPATION, AND BUSINESS 3 ADDRESS. 4 A. My name is Ellen Lapson, and I am the founder and Principal with Lapson 5 Advisory. My business address is 370 Riverside Drive, New York, New 6 York 10025. 7 8 Q. ON WHOSE BEHALF ARE YOU TESTIFYING? 9 A. I am providing this direct testimony to the Arkansas Public Service 10 Commission (“APSC” or the “Commission”) on behalf of Entergy 11 Arkansas, Inc. (“EAI” or the “Company”). 12 13 Q. BRIEFLY DESCRIBE YOUR EDUCATIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL 14 BACKGROUND. 15 A. I graduated from Barnard College in 1969 earning a Bachelor of Arts 16 degree in English. I earned a Masters degree in Business Administration 17 with a concentration in Accounting from New York University’s Stern 18 School of Business in 1975. In 1978 I qualified as a Chartered Financial 19 Analyst (“CFA”), and I am a member of the CFA Institute. I began my 20 career in the financial markets as an equity analyst for five years at Argus 21 Research Corporation analyzing utility equity. For the next 20 years I held 22 several posts at Chemical Bank and Chemical Securities (now J.P. 23 Morgan Chase) as a corporate banker and an investment banker 2 Entergy Arkansas,APSC FILEDInc. Time: 4/24/2015 1:59:53 PM: Recvd 4/24/2015 1:58:58 PM: Docket 15-015-U-Doc. 56 Direct Testimony of Ellen Lapson Docket No. 15-015-U 1 structuring and executing financial transactions for utility and infrastructure 2 companies. Thereafter, I spent 17 years first as a senior director and then 3 as a managing director at Fitch Research. I managed analysts who rated 4 credits in the sectors of electricity and natural gas and project finance, and 5 on behalf of Fitch I communicated with bankers and investors in utility 6 securities. A little over three years ago I founded Lapson Advisory, and I 7 provide consulting services on matters that involve financing utilities and 8 infrastructure projects. 9 10 Q. HAVE YOU PREVIOUSLY TESTIFIED AS AN EXPERT WITNESS 11 BEFORE THIS COMMISSION OR ANY OTHER REGULATORY 12 COMMISSION? 13 A. Yes. I submitted written testimony before this Commission on behalf of 14 EAI in the rehearing of Docket No. 13-028-U. A list of the proceedings in 15 which I have testified or am currently a witness is included in 16 EAI Direct Exhibit EL-1, along with information about my professional 17 credentials and experience in the investment community. 18 19 Q. WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF YOUR DIRECT TESTIMONY? 20 A. I address investment analysts’ view of the financial standing of EAI. As 21 discussed in the direct testimony of EAI President and Chief Executive 22 Officer Hugh T. McDonald, the Arkansas General Assembly recently 3 Entergy Arkansas,APSC FILEDInc. Time: 4/24/2015 1:59:53 PM: Recvd 4/24/2015 1:58:58 PM: Docket 15-015-U-Doc. 56 Direct Testimony of Ellen Lapson Docket No. 15-015-U 1 enacted Act 725 of 2015 (“Act 725” or the “Act”), which prescribes certain 2 categories of evidence that may be presented by the Company and other 3 parties, and considered by the Commission, in support of a recommended 4 rate of return on common equity (“ROE”): 5 6 (1) The basis for the requested return on common equity, including 7 quantitative analysis based on widely accepted methodologies, 8 current market data, qualitative discussion, and analysis of 9 factors that influence the requested return on common equity; 10 11 (2) Evidence that the requested return on common equity is 12 comparable to values that have recently been approved for 13 public utilities that are delivering similar services with 14 corresponding risks within this state and in other similar 15 regulatory jurisdictions in the same general part of the country. 16 17 (3) Evidence of the financial, business, and other risks faced by the 18 utility, including regulatory oversight, numbers and types of 19 customers, rate mechanisms, cost allocation methods, rate 20 levels, rate design, reliability, and quality of service, as 21 compared to those faced by utilities delivering similar services 22 within this state and in other similar regulatory jurisdictions in 23 the same general part of the country; and 24 25 (4) Any other information, including without limitation: 26 (A) Macroeconomic data; 27 (B) Relevant commentary from ratings agencies and 28 investment analysts; 29 (C) Independent analysis of utility industry trends; 30 (D) Customer impact; and 31 (E) Any other relevant information. 1 32 Consistent with the Act, which recognizes that financial stability of the 33 utility is in the public interest, my testimony and analysis includes the 34 second, third and fourth categories of evidence set forth in Act 725. In his 1 Ark. Code Ann. § 23-4-410. 4 Entergy Arkansas,APSC FILEDInc. Time: 4/24/2015 1:59:53 PM: Recvd 4/24/2015 1:58:58 PM: Docket 15-015-U-Doc. 56 Direct Testimony of Ellen Lapson Docket No. 15-015-U 1 direct testimony, Company witness Bruce H. Fairchild presents evidence 2 consistent with the first and second categories. 3 I first offer analysis and draw conclusions from several investment 4 analyst and rating agency reports that reacted unfavorably to the 5 combined effect of Order No. 21 in APSC Docket No. 13-028-U (“Order 6 No. 21”) on EAI’s financial strength, including the unusually low allowed 7 ROE as well as regulatory accounting methods, disallowances, and 8 adjustments that weakened EAI’s operating cash flow. In addition to the 9 reactions to the ROE granted in Order No. 21, I also discuss subsequent 10 reactions to Order No. 35 in APSC Docket No. 13-028-U issued 11 August 15, 2014 on rehearing (“Order No. 35”),2 and to the cumulative 12 effect of Order Nos. 21 and 35, which are adversely affecting EAI’s ability 13 to earn the APSC-determined ROE and to produce the cash flow needed 14 to maintain and improve EAI’s financial integrity during a period of high 15 capital expenditures on needed electric infrastructure. 16 17 Q. HOW IS YOUR TESTIMONY STRUCTURED? 18 A. After this introductory section, the remaining sections are as follows: 19 20 II. Summary of Key Points 21 III. Reaction of the Investment Community to APSC Order Nos. 21 and 35 22 IV. Economic and Capital Market Conditions 23 V. ROE Decisions in State Jurisdictions 24 VI. Conclusions 2 The APSC amended its Order No. 21 and raised EAI’s allowed ROE from 9.3 percent to 9.5 percent. 5 Entergy Arkansas,APSC FILEDInc. Time: 4/24/2015 1:59:53 PM: Recvd 4/24/2015 1:58:58 PM: Docket 15-015-U-Doc. 56 Direct Testimony of Ellen Lapson Docket No. 15-015-U 1 2 II. SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS 3 Q. PLEASE SUMMARIZE THE KEY POINTS OF YOUR TESTIMONY. 4 A. My testimony will demonstrate: 5 x The unusually low allowed ROE of 9.3 percent set in Order No. 6 21, even as modified to 9.5 percent by Order No. 35, together 7 with the pre-Act 725 methods of applying the Allowance for 8 Funds Used During Construction (“AFUDC”) and with other cost 9 disallowances, has undermined the confidence of investors and 10 credit rating agencies and has jeopardized EAI’s ability to attract 11 investment capital on reasonable terms relative to similar 12 utilities. 13 x Investors compare the ROEs authorized by the APSC versus 14 those authorized in other state jurisdictions, both nationally and 15 especially in comparison with neighboring regional utilities in 16 similar jurisdictions. Notwithstanding the increase in the ROE 17 after rehearing to 9.5 percent, EAI’s authorized ROE is at the 18 very low end relative to those of regional and national integrated 19 electric utilities. 20 x Order No. 21 affected the credit rating of EAI’s debt by Moody’s 21 Investors Service (“Moody’s”), lowering EAI’s ranking relative to 22 its peer utilities. Moody’s decision not to upgrade EAI at the 23 same time that it upgraded 143 other U.S. utilities, including four 6 Entergy Arkansas,APSC FILEDInc. Time: 4/24/2015 1:59:53 PM: Recvd 4/24/2015 1:58:58 PM: Docket 15-015-U-Doc. 56 Direct Testimony of Ellen Lapson Docket No. 15-015-U 1 other Entergy Operating Companies,3 occurred promptly after 2 the APSC issued Order No. 21 in December 2013, and Moody’s 3 cited to less than favorable rate case outcomes in both 4 December 2013 and May 2010 and the Commission’s 5 “challenging regulatory environment.”4 Aside from the Moody’s 6 action, several investment analysts published critical reports 7 citing Order No. 21. 8 x To the investment public, Moody’s action was effectively a credit 9 rating downgrade for EAI relative to the aggregate of the U.S.
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