Economics Newsletter Department of Economics Rutgers University Number 46 New Series Summer 2007

R UTGERS A Message from the Chairman U NIVERSITY Barry Sopher EPARTMENT OF D E CONOMICS Phone 732-932-7363 Fax 732-932-7416

http://economics.rutgers.edu

Construction noise? In spite of tight state and university budgets, the Editors department has been improving its physical plant. The home of much of our Eugene White social and intellectual activity, the Sidney Simon Departmental Library [email protected] received a major facelift. The space on the third floor was renovated this Dorothy Rinaldi summer, from top to bottom, and all the furniture has been replaced. As soon [email protected] as the graduate student computer room, adjoining the library, is completed, the Debra Holman library will be open again, just in time for Fall Semester 2007. The [email protected] department has also embarked on an expansion. Work on a new experimental economics laboratory, located in Scott Hall, has been completed and should be

open for experiments at the start of the Fall Semester. This new facility was I NSIDE made possible by a generous donation in the name of a former alumnus. We A Message from the Chair….…….1 anticipate a dedication ceremony for the lab sometime in the fall, pending final Report From the Graduate Director approval for naming the laboratory in memory of the alumnus. ………………………………………2 The new capital campaign for Rutgers is gearing up now, and the Report from the Director of Department of Economics has a number of projects that we anticipate will be Undergraduate Studies…………..4 the focus of fundraising efforts over the next several years. Proposals to fund an endowed professorship, to establish a center for global studies (joint with Rutgers Fed Challenge…………..6 Political Science), to establish an endowed fund for the new experimental Undergraduate Notes……………6. economics laboratory, and to fund a graduate fellowship are among these Faculty Research Activities….….7 projects. Look for more information on these efforts over the coming year. Among new initiatives underway in the department is a prospective New Faculty………….……….…..9 exchange agreement between our department and the department of economics Graduate Alumni News….………9 at the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom. With strong groups in Birth Announcements……..……13 microeconomic theory, economic history and econometrics at both institutions, In Memoriam…………………….14 we are working on an arrangement whereby faculty and graduate students at either institution will be able to make extended visits to the other institution. Contributions….…………………14

Economics Newsletter 1

to great job market opportunities and productive PhD lives! All comments and suggestions, both small and big, should be channeled to Norm, who is always excited to hear from everyone.

The Graduate Economics Student Association (GESA) recently elected a new president, Emel Yildirim. Congratulations! GESA held it’s September get- together to welcome new students and faculty. Report of The Graduate Director Additionally, GESA continues to hold informal lunch Norman R. Swanson talks to introduce faculty to students. Recent participants included Colin Campbell and Rosanne This year, I took the reigns as Graduate Director from Altshuler. All students are strongly encouraged to Richard McLean. Our program bears the imprint of attend these events and find dissertation directors and Rich’s tireless efforts on behalf of the graduate committee members! program; and his advice and experience have greatly eased my transition. We are happy to announce that we have a new faculty member in the graduate program, Carolyn Moehling. The program has begun some major changes that will Carolyn comes to us from Yale University. We enable students to devote more time towards the anticipate she will be teaching in the graduate program research and writing of their second year papers, as shortly. Her fields are economic history and labor. well as their dissertations. Specifically, the graduate Carolyn promises to be an important part of the faculty voted to eliminate the two written field graduate program at Rutgers, and we encourage new examinations, thereby, freeing up valuable time to students to seek out her advice and collaboration. allow the students to focus on their second year paper. Our goal is raise the quality of these papers and This year’s first year class of 14 who began Fall 2006 increase the possibility of ultimately publishing them are hard at work. They are a lively and enthusiastic in refereed academic periodicals. We have also group. We have three students each from Turkey, changed the timing of various second and third year Korea, and China, and one from Italy, Vietnam, requirements tied to dissertation work, in order to Thailand, Japan and the Dominican Republic. Four further spur research productivity of our graduate were awarded fellowships. Once again we were students. fortunate that two continuing students, John Bowblis and Yoko Ibuka, were awarded research assistantships One of my greatest desires as graduate director is to get from the Institute for Health. We are delighted to more students involved with a wider variety of faculty. report that Chetan Mannige and Sharad Bhasker In particular, there are many faculty who have not received RAs from the Bloustein School; Jeff Birchby recently taught in the graduate program, but who are has an RA working with Barry Sopher on his NSF leaders in their fields. I encourage students to seek out grant; and Yue Li has an internship with the World all faculty when considering research topics for their Bank. dissertations, not just those who have taught in the core and existing fields. To increase exposure to faculty, We will soon be welcoming the new class for Fall the program aims to increase the number of field 2007 and expect approximately 12 students. courses offered; and we have recently added Development, Public, Experimental, and Labor ****************************** Economics courses to the schedule for 2007-2008. Needless to say, courses can only be offered if there is In 2006-2007, two students successfully defended their enough student demand, and hence I encourage doctoral dissertations. We are proud of the following students to broadly sample and enjoy the course latest additions to the Rutgers PhD alumni. offerings in their graduate program! Shaolin Chen, “Self-Destructive Cost Reduction and We continue to consider any and all changes to the Pseudo-Declining Industries” Supervisor: Colin graduate program, with the ultimate goal of providing Campbell. His research focuses on concentrated absolutely first class education to our students, leading industries where cost reduction across the board may

Economics Newsletter 2 have negative impact on a representative firms’ profit. Sidney I. Simon Prize for Outstanding Second Shaolin is working at Key Bank. year Research Paper This award is given in recognition of a second year student’s achievement in Leah Traub, “Empirical Essays in International writing the best second year research paper that Financial Markets” Supervisor: Roberto Chang. In her contributes to economics and has a potential for dissertation, Leah analyses two main functions of publication. The winner was Demet Tunali for her international financial markets; the efficient paper, “Revisiting the Role of Monetary Aggregates in distribution of capital and risk and the aggregation and U.S.” In her research she makes a new empirical case transmission of information. Leah has accepted a for the argument about the redundancy of money position at Lord Abbott, a mutual fund company in aggregates in explaining the dynamics of output and New Jersey. inflation. Demet is conducting her research under the supervision of Norman Swanson. Other important news: Sidney I. Simon Prize for Outstanding Graduate Bodhi Ganguli and Faisal Rabby, who expect to Student Teaching Award This award is given to a complete their PhDs in the near future, also had graduate student for outstanding teaching in our success in the job market. Bodhi has joined Moody’s department’s courses who has also completed their and Faisal has a visiting position at Muhlenberg third year in the Ph.D. program. The award is based on College starting this fall. student’s evaluations, syllalbi and a faculty review. This year the winner is Levent Ulku. Andres Fernandez and Zhihua He received their Master’s Degree and will continue in the Ph.D. Peter Asch Memorial Scholarship This award was program. established in 1991 by family and friends of Peter Asch. The prize is given to the student who has ******************************* performed to the highest standards and is writing a dissertation in the area of applied microeconomics. The prize was shared this year by Nii Ayi Armah and We held our graduate awards ceremony in May. Our John Bowblis. Nii Ayi was cited for his paper distinguished faculty whose names grace our prizes “Modern Methods for Prediction: New Theory, were recalled by Professor Douglas Blair, who spoke Methods and Empirical Results,” in which he discusses of the continuing relevance of Peter Asch’s research modern methods for model selection and and Professor Leonard Goodman from the Accounting macroeconomic time series prediction. John was Department, who recalled many stories and fond recognized for two papers, “Parametric and semi- memories of the days when Sidney Simon taught at parametric approaches to demand for antidepressants Rutgers University. We were pleased that Mrs. Rita in the elderly Medicare population,” and “The Decline Asch joined our festivities. in Infant Mortality, 1878-1913: Effects of Early Sickness Insurance Programs.” In his first paper he The following awards were presented – describes how to model highly skewed medical costs. Congratulations to all! In the second paper he uses the adoption of nationalize health insurance plans in Europe between 1878 and Rie Ashizawa Memorial Award This award was 1913 to determine if health insurance accelerated the established in 2002 by the family of Rie Ashizawa in decline in infant mortality. her memory. The award is given to a student for an outstanding performance on the qualifying Our graduate students continue to attend conferences, examinations. The recipient this year was Tingting present and publish papers: Ding. Andres Fernandez’s paper entitled “Information in The Sidney Brown Prize in Economics This prize the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets”, co- was established in 1990 by Mr. Thornton O’glove in authored with Norman Swanson was presented at the memory of his friend, Sidney Brown (RC’40). This Real-Time Data Analysis and Methods in Economics award is given to the student(s) who demonstrates Conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of outstanding performance and promise in the first two Philadelphia, Richmond University, and Rutgers years of graduate study. The winner was Andres University, and held at the FRB, Philadelphia. He also Fernandez. co-authored a book chapter entitled “Historia Monetaria Colombiana en el Siglo XX,” in the book

Economics Newsletter 3 Economia Colombiana del Siglo XX: Analisis Graduate students have also recently organized a new Cuantitativo. Andres also presented a seminar, “Can Macro/International working group with students and Monetary Policy Affect Financial Development in the faculty participating. Long Run? Evidence from a Developing County: Columbia on the XXth Century” at a conference in The Teaching Assistant Program scheduled a training Venice. session by Neil Sheflin on the use of new technology in the classroom (including wikis, video, music, Faisal Rabby paper, “The Post-9/11 U.S. Labor simulations, dynamic PowerPoint, clickers, Market For Male Immigrants from Muslim-majority PodCasting, Just in Time Teaching). Countries??” was presented at the Southern Economic Association (SEA) conference. Have a fun and productive summer! Norm Li Liu presented her paper, “The Use of Business Balanced Scorecard in China: The Impact of Chinese Cultural and Social Context” at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Meeting - American Accounting Association.

Liuling Li’s paper, “Optimal Asset Size for U.S. Small-cap Equity Mutual Funds,” was published in The Journal of Investing.

John Bowblis’ paper, “Adherence to Antidepressant Report from the Director of Treatment among Privately Insured Patients Diagnosed Undergraduate Studies with Depression” (co-authored with Ayse Akincigil, et Jeff Rubin al.) was published in Medical Care. John also presented work on depression at the America Public If you have a good memory, you will see that I have Health Association Meeting and work on family returned as Director of Undergraduate Studies after a satisfactory with nursing home care at the Academy three year hiatus. Tom Prusa did a great job leading Health Annual Research meeting. the undergraduate program and implementing the shift away from options to more detailed requirements for Levent Ulku presented his paper, “Optimal the 7 electives that students are required to take. In Combinatorial Mechanism Design” at three fact, Tom and I have switched positions. While I focus conferences: Social Choice and Welfare Conference on scheduling and hiring instructors, Tom is now (Istanbul), The Society for Economic Design charged with student advising, including the complex Conference (Bodrum) and the Royal Economic Society issues associated with transfers and assisting students Conference (London). who want to do an internship. We are not completely interchangeable, but we usually give students the same Bodhisattva Ganguli’s paper, “The Trade Effects of answer to their questions. Indian Antidumping Actions” is forthcoming in The Review of International Economics. Two big news items dominated undergraduate education in 2006-07. The New Jersey State budget Nuttanan Wichitaksorn’s article, “Can Thailand crisis forced cuts in funding on RU and put academic Have Higher Trade with Latin America?” was programs at risk. In anticipation, we regretfully published in the Chulalongkorn Journal of Economics. implemented some reductions in the Fall, but when the final details came out, the situation had improved and I encourage students to regularly attend at least one of we were able to expand offerings in the Spring with our five weekly workshops (Coordinator): Money, some stability for the 2007-08 year. History Workshop (Hugh Rockoff), Microeconomic Theory (Thomas Sjostrom), Macroeconomic Theory The second important development was the decision to (Bruce Mizrach) Empirical Microeconomic merge the individual liberal arts colleges (Douglass, Workshop (Rosanne Altshuler) and Econometrics Livingston, Rutgers and University) into a new School (Norman Swanson). You can check out schedules and of Arts and Sciences (SAS). Since our major was the papers on the Department Website. same regardless of which college a student attended, this change will have little direct impact on the operation of the undergraduate program in economics.

Economics Newsletter 4 But, since we are all faculty members in the new SAS, faculty rely upon their advanced courses. A key the change will have some impact on the faculty question for the assessment process is how we will outside the economics curriculum. As part of this choose to allocate resources between students needing momentous change, Tom and I were elected to various more work to get a better understanding of basic committees to establish and maintain the basic economics and our advanced students who need to be graduation requirements for students entering SAS. challenged with increasingly rigorous courses and be One new commitment of SAS is to increase faculty given more opportunities to do independent research. involvement in undergraduate education and to May 2006 saw two major celebrations. First, the promote the participation of students in research. The department held its annual awards luncheon in May in most significant development in this drive was the Rutgers Student Center. The event was attended by creation of the First-Year Undergraduate Seminar over 100 faculty, staff, students, parents and donors. program. Numerous faculty members signed up to Awards were presented to our top students including offer one credit courses a research topic of their own. students who completed a senior thesis. Thanks to the Each seminar will be limited to 20 students. All continued generosity of our many benefactors, we were entering students have the option of selecting one able to recognize and award a large number of seminar as part of their Fall or Spring schedule. In students, most of whom had a GPA of 3.8 or better in economics, four faculty members are participating in economics. Some pictures from the event are available 2007-08: Anne Piehl, (The Economics of on the department’s web page at Incarceration), Doug Blair, (Microfinance and Global http://econweb.rutgers.edu/pics/UndergraduateAwards Poverty), Barry Sopher, (Economics in the Ceremony/index.html. Secondly, the department Laboratory), and Mark Killingsworth with Pat Roos hosted a reception for graduating economics majors from Sociology, (Choice and Constraint: Economic and their families on graduation day. We hope to make and Sociological Approaches to the Study of this an annual event. This event gives students and Inequality). parents an opportunity to stop by so that we can wish them well as they take leave of Rutgers. I had the Next year, 2007-08 will be dominated by the opportunity to march in the Livingston College reaccredidation of Rutgers. Gary Gigliotti, a mainstay graduation this year and shake hands with economics in our large introductory classes, has been given the majors as they walked across the stage at the RAC to position of Associate Vice President for Academic receive their diploma. It was good to be able to offer Affairs-Teaching and Assessment Research, effective each one of them congratulations on behalf of the January 1, 2007. (The complete press release can be department. found at http://www.president.rutgers.edu/letter_022007.shtml.) I am also pleased to report on the presentation of the Gary will also continue as the executive director of the 2006 Kershaw Award and Prize by the Association for Center for the Advancement of Teaching. This Public Policy Analysis and Management to Jens emphasis of teaching assessment is part of a national Ludwig, who graduated from Rutgers in 1990 after trend toward evaluating educational programs and completing a senior honors thesis under the direction outcomes. A newly reconstituted Curriculum and of Joe Seneca. The award is given to those who, under Assessment Committee will be working to determine the age of 40, have made a distinguished contribution what else the department should be doing to assess the to the field of public policy analysis and management. level of learning among our majors and non-majors. The award comes with a cash prize of $10,000. Jens Even before this drive for assessment appeared on the received his Ph.D. in economics in 1994 from Duke horizon, the Economics Department began an effort to University and he is currently a professor of public make learning more effective---ensuring that the policy at Georgetown University. His recent work elective courses make effective use of the skills focuses on evaluating Head Start, school finance, the acquired in the required courses. The most important effects of private schooling on student outcomes, the feature of this movement was the decision to require costs and benefits of school-to-work programs in the our majors to take at least 4 electives that have some United States. He is co-author of a book Gun combination of intermediate microeconomics, Violence. intermediate macroeconomics and econometrics as prerequisites. Faculty members were also encouraged Anyone interested in the activities of the department to make more extensive use of these prerequisites in and the undergraduate program should visit our newly their upper level elective courses. Joe Hughes has designed web page. One new feature is a section been collecting data on the basic economics skills that highlighting the success of some recent graduates. The

Economics Newsletter 5 former students and their pictures and bios can be and one from Marlboro, were awarded $500 and found at: $1,000 respectively, for their essays. It appears we http://economics.rutgers.edu/dmdocuments/questionnai have our best ever recruiting class for Fed Challenge! re.html More information about the Fed Challenge can be found at: The Fed http://www.ny.frb.org/education/fedchallenge_college. Challenge html

Jeff Rubin

Undergraduate Notes Neil Sheflin Rutgers continued its impressive streak of finishing ‘in the money’ in the annual College Fed Challenge in ODE – The International Economics Honor Society 2006. Unfortunately, the competition was tougher this at Rutgers. The ODE concluded 2006-2007 with its year and we only captured third place in the New York annual Voices of Experience Evening. Five former District. On the other hand, the good news for Rutgers members spoke in a panel to 30 current student was that a team from Rutgers-Newark, advised by John members about their careers, Rutgers' experiences, and Graham, won the competition in the New York District the value of an econ degree. The speakers included: and represented us at the national competition in Marco Giandomenico (2005) at Comptroller of Washington, DC. They finished third behind the Currency - bank examiner, Nora Paxton (2000) at perennial power Northwestern. Mathematica Policy Research - statistical programming manager, Susan Polkowski (2006) at AIG - energy This year we were again ably assisted by Ray Stone sector underwriting, Orlando Reyes (2003) at MetLife (RU, Ph.D. economics, 1981). The team from RU Financial Services - financial planning, and Brian performed quite impressively in the first two rounds to Rowe (2005) at Avaya - international marketing. advance to the finals, which are held in the imposing auditorium at the NY Fed. The judges this year in NY The ODE and the Fed Challenge Team sponsored a included John Berry, a respected journalist covering Macroeconomic Forecasting Contest in which students the Fed for Bloomberg and Mark Zandy, the Chief forecast seven key macroeconomic indicators over the Economist at Economy.com. After finishing third, the Spring semester. Rima Kapadia, a senior economics team received a check for $10,000 courtesy of major was the first-place winner followed by Tim Moody’s Foundation, which is shared between the Shaw, also a senior, and Ahmed Shawky, a freshman. students and the department. Students on the Fed Challenge team were recognized at the annual awards The Last Rutgers College Graduation was held on luncheon and each received the recent biography of May 17, with more than 2300 students, hundreds of Rutgers alumnus and Nobel Prize winner, Milton whom took our courses or majored or minored in Friedman. Economics. (While students admitted prior to 2007 may still graduate with a Rutgers College degree, there The department sponsors two important activities using will be a SAS graduation for them and Livingston and funds won at various Fed Challenge competitions. Douglass students starting next year). Some of the money was used to establish prizes for students who did the best in an annual forecasting Award Winning Undergraduates. Jagannath R. competition jointly sponsored by the undergraduate Pisharath, co-president of ODE, economics major, honor society, ODE, and Fed Challenge. The winners statistics minor, and Fed Challenge member, won the of this year’s competition were recognized at the Eugene E. Agger Award. Jagannath starts work in annual awards luncheon in May. The second program Investment Banking with Citigroup in July. Douglas funded with Fed Challenge support is an annual essay Parsons, also co-president of ODE. Doug starts work in competition open to New Jersey high school students Finance at Citigroup this summer. Benjamen Prager, who participated in Fed Challenge at their high school RC Honors program, Rutgers Cap and Skull society, and who will be attending Rutgers in the upcoming fall College Avenue Players, double major economics and term. This year two students, one from Bridgewater classics and a statistics minor, is off to Deloitte and

Economics Newsletter 6 Touche as a data and statistical analyst. Yiwen Chen, wrote a senior thesis (under Professor Tsurumi) on This year, Jan Dutta published a new book China’s “Export Driven Growth in China and Japan” and Industrial Revolution and Economic Presence and he became the John C. Daniel award winner; she starts gave a keynote lecture at the China Economic Summit work with Morris Consulting this summer. Srihari in Hong Kong. Prabhu. Another Fed Challenge member was awarded With Rutgers re-accreditation on the horizon, Gary highest honors for his thesis (under Professor Gang) Gigliotti, has been named Associate Vice President for on “The Relationship Between Migration and Academic Affairs-Teaching and Assessment Research Education” and won the Sidney I. Simon Award for to manage this university’s assessment of Outstanding Senior Honors Thesis. He is joining Teach undergraduate and graduate academic programs and for America in the Fall, before beginning graduate student life activities as part of this huge undertaking. school in economics or public policy. We had three winners of the Bear, Stearns Merit Scholarship: Abbas Jessie Hartline, now retired, was honored with the Ali, a Fed Challenge team who has an investment University of Maryland’s 1955 President's medal as banking internship at Credit Suisse this summer. "Outstanding Graduating Senior." At the 150 year Joshua Ontell, who has summer internship in public celebration of the College’s founding, she delivered a policy and Hani Spektor, who has a summer job with talk (suitably cloaked in her scarlet Rutgers academic Bank Hapoalim. regalia) at the College of Behavioral Science, home of the Economics Department.

Faculty Research Activities Off in Australia, Mark Killingsworth gave a talk (“Subsidizing Employers, Kinds, and Motherhood: What Have We Learned?”) at the Australian Treasury After five years of stewardship (2001-2006), Rosanne in Canberra, and was a keynote speaker for the 35th Altshuler, our tax guru, left the editorship of the Australian Conference of Economists in Perth (“The National Tax Journal. She has been on the road, and Effect of New Jersey’s Family Cap on Fertility: she was the keynote speaker for a conference on the Results from Experimental Data”). Dashing across the personal income tax held at the University of Coimbra globe, he gave a seminar at the Bedford Group of the in Portugal last October. In the past year, she has University of London's Centre for Longitudinal Studies delivered lectures at New York University’s Wagner ("Economic Influences on Fertility in the US and the Graduate School of Public Service (“Taxpayer UK"). Responses to Competitive Tax Policies and Tax Policy Responses to Competitive Taxpayers”), the Conference C. F. Lee published a book Encyclopedia of Finance on Fundamental Tax Reform sponsored by the James (Springer) with Professor Alice C. Lee. A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University (“Corporate Taxes in the World Bruce Mizrach spent part of his sabbatical at the New Economy”), the Tax Council Policy Institute, and the York Federal Reserve Bank in the Capital Markets International Tax Policy Forum. Her most recent paper Group and celebrated his 10th year as editor of Studies was “Constrained Tax Reform: How Political and in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. His recent Economic Constraints Affect the Formation of Tax publications include “Does SIZE Matter: Liquidity Policy Proposals,” (with Jonathan Z. Ackerman), Provision by the Nasdaq Anonymous Trading National Tax Journal (March 2006). Facility,” Competition and Regulation in Network Industries (2007), “The Transition to Electronic Our peripatetic Michael Bordo is spending the year at Communications Networks in the Secondary Treasury Cambridge University as a Fellow of King’s College Market,” (with C. Neely), Federal Reserve Bank of St. and the Pitt Professor of American History. Louis Review (Nov/Dec. 2006) “The Enron Bankruptcy: When Did The Options Market Lose Its Oriol Carbonell-Nicolau’s paper “Voting over Smirk?,” Review of Quantitative Finance and income taxation," has appeared in the Journal of Accounting 27:4, (2007), and “Nonlinear Time Series Economic Theory, (2007) and during the year he has Analysis,” in The New Palgrave Dictionary of presented new papers at the University of Chicago, Economics, 2nd ed., (2007). On the lecture circuit, Northwestern University, Universitat Autònoma de Bruce gave talks at Virginia Commonwealth Barcelona, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, and at University, the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and the Public Economic Theory Conference in Hanoi, Econometrics in St. Louis, the Bank of Canada Fixed Vietnam. Income Conference in Ottawa, the Conference on the

Economics Newsletter 7 Architecture of Financial System Stability, in Capri, Evolution Should Incorporate Choice.” Barry was Italy, the MTS Conference on Financial Markets in also the recipient of a major NSF grant, “The role of Istanbul, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. communication in the dynamics of effective decision making,” with Michael Littman and Matthew Stone (RU Computer Science) and Richard Lau (RU Political Marty Perry our sometime Chair of Economics and Science), from the Human Social Dynamics Program recent Chief Economist at the Federal Communications of the National Science Foundation. Commission was inducted into his High School’s Hall of Fame back home in Missouri. Norm Swanson gave seminars at NYU, Maryland, and the University of Chicago. At the Philadelphia Federal Louise Russell co-authored an article with a former Reserve Bank (jointly with Rutgers University), he co- student Elmire Valiyeva, "Lifestyle-related Risk organized a conference “Real-Time Data Analysis and Factors and Risk of Future Nursing Home Admission," Methods in Economics” and presented a paper with which appears in the Archives of Internal Medicine, Andres Fernandez, “An Assessment of the Information (2006). in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets.” In addition he co-organized the annual International At the interdisciplinary conference, "Politics of Peace Institute of Forecasters, 2007 conference in New York and the Consequences of War" at the LBJ Library in City. Norm was invited to give a series of lectures at Austin, Hugh Rockoff gave a paper "The Economic the CIDE - Econometrics Summer School held in Legacies of America's Wars." Bertinoro, Italy. He was also elected a fellow of the Journal of Econometrics. His recent publications Neil Sheflin presented “The End of Teaching? The include: (with Dick van Dijk, "Are Reporting Agencies Use of Active Technology in the Large Introductory Getting It Right? Data Rationality and Business Cycle Economics Class” at the January 2007 ASSA Asymmetry", Journal of Business and Economic Meeting’s CEE/AEA Poster Session on Active Statistics, (2006), (with Geetesh Bhardwaj) "An Learning Techniques. An ardent exponent of the use of Empirical Inverstigation of the Usefulness of ARFIMA “clickers” in class, Neil has established a Sakai site to Models For Predicting Macroeconomic and Financial share clicker information and experiences within and Time Series", Journal of Econometrics, (2006). (with outside of Rutgers and has hosted workshops on Valentina Corradi) "The Effect of Data Transformation clicker use, with more on the way. For more on Common Cycle, Cointegration and Unit Root Tests: information, contact Neil at: [email protected] Monte Carlo Results and a Simple Test," Journal of Econometrics, (2006). (with Bhardwaj) “A Predictive Hilary Sigman presented research on decentralization Comparison of Some Simple Long Memory and Short of environmental policy to the World Congress of Memory Models of Daily U.S. Stock Returns, With Environmental Economists in Kyoto, Japan (at the Emphasis on Business Cycle Effects”, in Nonlinear conference hall where the Kyoto Protocol was Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, (2006). (with negotiated). She also lectured on environmental Valentina Corradi) “Predictive Density Evaluation”, in liability and brownfields at the U.S. Environmental the Handbook of Economic Forecasting, (2006) (with Protection Agency and the National Bureau of Corradi), “Bootstrap Conditional Distribution Tests In Economic Research. Her paper, "The Incidence of the Presence of Dynamic Misspecification,” Journal of Environmental Policy" (with I. Parry, M. Walls, R. Econometrics, (2006). (with Corradi) “Predictive Williams) was published in the International Yearbook Density and Conditional Confidence Interval Accuracy of Environmental and Resource Economics 2006/2007. Tests”, Journal of Econometrics, (2006). (with Corradi), “Evaluation of Dynamic Stochastic General Barry Sopher contributed a paper at the Economic Equilibrium Models Based on Distributional Science Association International Meeting at Georgia Comparison of Simulated and Historical Data,” State University, Atlanta on “Consistency and Journal of Econometrics, (2007), (with Corradi), Aggregation in Choice Under Uncertainty.” and “Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures for Predictive “Consistency and Aggregation in Choice under Inference Based on Recursive Estimation Schemes”, Uncertainty,” at the IAREP/SABE Conference at the International Economic Review, (2006). University of Paris. He has had papers appear in the Economics Bulletin “Learning in Tournaments with Shanti Tangri, now retired, gave a talk on Population Intergenerational Advice,” (with Ananish Chaudhuri Growth, Economic Growth, Resources and the and Andrew Schotter), (2006), and in Behavior and Environment to the Raritan Valley chapter of the Sierra Brain Science “A Unified Science of Cultural

Economics Newsletter 8 Club and a lecture on the “Economics of Immigration” at Livingston College for the Emeriti Assembly.

Hiroki Tsurumi was nominated “Mentor of the Year” by the Aresty Research Center for Undergraduates. At the Valencia 8/ISBA conference in Beniform, Spain, he gave a paper, "Bayesian comparison of long memory and threshold nonlinearity in time series models,” (with Elena Goldman) and presented Fund Raiser “Bayesian estimation of Exponential power distributed error terms”, at the International Bayesian symposium, The staff of the Economics Department organized a Tohoku University, in Sendai, Japan. fundraiser for breast cancer in October 2006. The

successful organizers, Donna Ghilino, Janet Goodstein, Eugene N. White gave “How Occupied France Janet Budge, Debra Holman, and Dorothy Rinaldi (not Financed its Own Exploitation in World War II,” (with pictured) who raised $700.00 are shown with their Filippo Occhino and Kim Oosterlinck) at the NBER goodies in the photo. National Security Conference, the Development of the American Economy meetings, the Financial and Monetary History Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the ASSA-AEA Meetings, The Dictatorship and Debt Conference at Cambridge Graduate Alumni News University and the Economic and Social History Dorothy Rinaldi Seminar at Oxford University. This paper subsequently appeared in the American Economic [Alumni email addresses are now available on the Review (2007). At the European Banking History economic website.] Association, in Lisbon (2006), he gave a lecture “Regulation and Governance: A Secular Perspective on Robert Agodini’s (M.A. 93) paper, which examines the Development of the American Financial System.” whether non-experimental approaches for evaluation At the Conference in Honor of Larry D. Neal at the education program produce unbiased estimates of University of Illinois (2006), he presented program effects, was published in the Review of “Anticipating the Stock Market Crash of 1929: The Economics and Statistics, and presented at the View from the Floor of the Stock Exchange.” At Symposium on the Econometrics of Matching. He is seminars at Cambridge University and the Bank of also directing a large-scale study that examines the England, Eugene delivered his paper, “The Crash of effect of several early elementary math curricula on 1882, Counterparty Risk and the Bailout of the Paris student math achievement sponsored by the U.S. Bourse.” His article “Bubbles and Busts: the 1990s in Department of Education. the Mirror of the 1920s,” appeared in The Global Economy in the 1990s: A Long-run Perspective (2006). Ozkan Akman (M.A.98) is now working at Medpointe Pharmaceuticals in New Jersey.

Jose Alameda (M.A.83), a professor in economics at University of Puerto Rico is working for the The Department is pleased to report government and private sector, as well as his academic that it has hired a new faculty research. member: Amarnath Ananthanaraynan (Ph.D.99) visited Myeong Su Yun (Ph.D.2000) on a trip to Korea for GE Carolyn Moehling, who comes to us from Yale (India). University and joined the department in the Fall 2006 as an associate professor. Her area of research is Ibrahim Bakir (M.A.05) is working for a business American Economics History. software consulting company, Bluestone Consulting NJ, with clients in NYC.

Economics Newsletter 9 Nicholas Balakins (Ph.D. 56) fondly remembers Max Gideonse (who retired as Chairman of Economics Chyong Ling (Judy) Chen (Ph.D.) presented a paper, Department in 1960) and plans to include him in a “Sweet Sweat: Women Entrepreneurs in Taiwan, Self- book he is writing. made Tycoons” at the 15th Annual Women & Society Conference in NY, and then stopped by to visit Hiroki Radhika Balakrishnan (Ph.D.90) was promoted to Tsurumi. Judy teaches at the Feng Chia University in full professor at Marymount Manhattan College. She is Taiwan. working on a project, Human Rights and Macro Economic Policy in the U.S. and Mexico, funded by Deb Chakrabarty (Ph.D.01) bumped into Mark the Ford Foundation. Killingsworth at the 15th Annual Australian Conference of Economists. Deb is at the University of James Barrese (Ph.D.82) participated with David Sydney where he just got tenure. Deb often sees Dean (Ph.D.88) and David Appel (Ph.D.80) in the Ananish Chaudhury (Ph.D.97), who is at the Risk Theory Seminar in Virginia. University of New Zealand, at their joint seminars.

Anindita Basu (M.A.04) is currently working for IMS Catherine Yap Co (Ph.D.95) at the University of Health as an analytical consultant. Nebraska/Omaha became a citizen in April 2006. It was just in time for her to vote! Tibor Besedes (Ph.D.03) is leaving Louisiana State University for Georgia Tech. He continues to work Saubhik Deb (Ph.D.06) and George Joseph (Ph. D. with Tom Prusa on their joint research. exp. Oct. 07) have consulting jobs at the World Bank.

Geetesh Bhardwaj (Ph.D.06) left Bates & White in Achintan Dey (Ph.D.98) is currently head of the San Diego to work for AIG Financial Products in Analytics Group at Dun & Bradstreet, South Asia, Connecticut. His paper, “An empirical investigation of Africa and Middle East. the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time series” (with Sonal Dhingra (Ph.D.05.) is enjoying working at Norman Swanson), was published in the Journal of Inductis and has started working on her own projects. Econometrics. The company recently sent her to India on a business trip. Paul Biderman (MA 63) inquired about Professor Emeritus Bob Alexander who continues writing and Ronald Drennan (Ph.D. 98) was promoted to one of lunching at the Rutgers Faculty Dining Hall. the four Assistant Chiefs at the Economics Analysis Group in the Antirust Division of the Federal Trade Howard Bodenhorn (Ph.D.90) is on leave from Commission. Lafayette College and writes he is enjoying visiting Yale University. Bernie Eschweiler (Ph.D.93) and his family returned for a visit to Sri Lanka (after barely missing the Heather Cammisa (M.A.2000) is applying for an Tsunami in 2005). Bernie said that many signs of the economics position with a national animal advocacy Tsunami were still visible. Reconstruction was slow group. but they were impressed with the private grass-roots efforts often on small local basis. Three econ classmates from the 1960’s held a mini reunion in San Francisco. Tony Campagana (Ph.D. Jorge Estenssoro (M.A.77) has been named Director 66), Jack Osman (Ph.D. 66) and Dick Olsen (Ph.D. for Postgraduate Studies and Research for the 67). Tony is retired after a career at the University of Universidad Privada de Santa Cruz del la Sierra Vermont; Jack retired this last year from San Francisco (UPSA). State University but continues to consult. Dick has a full time forensic economics practice. The trio Joyce Furfero (Ph.D.80) celebrated her 27th year at St. reminisced of grad school days in econometrics with John’s University where she is Chair of the Economics Jan Dutta and the grad student Softball team, the Department. Joyce was also at the Fed Challenge. Economics Goldbricks, with Hank Levin (Ph.D.67) and Andy Weintraub (Ph.D.64). They would like those wishing to share memories to email them (addresses on economics website).

Economics Newsletter 10 Elena Goldman’s (Ph.D.02) paper, “Testing Hyesun Kim (Ph.D.06) is a new research fellow efficiency of the ruble-sterling foreign-exchange joining the international finance team of Korea Fixed market under the gold standard,” was published in Income Research Institute. She is working on the Asian Empirical Economics. She is currently working on an bond market, Asian financial integration, establishing empirical paper based on the works of Thomas security exchanges in the emerging markets and early Jefferson and his view on the problems of government warning system for financial instability. Hyesun also debt and international economic policy. She presented visited Cambodia to study the feasibility of “Bayesian Comparison of Long Memory and establishing a stock market. Threshold Nonlinearity in Time Series” in our Econometrics Workshop. Elena’s and Hiroki Tsurumi's Oleg Korenok (Ph.D.05) has been working on three paper “Bayesian comparison of long memory and papers with Norman Swanson. “The Incremental threshold nonlinearity in time series models” was Predictive Information Associated with Using presented at the 8th Valencia Bayesian meeting in Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Spain. Simple Linear Alternatives,” was published in Oxford Fran Goodin (M.A.97) invited us to her first art Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, ”How Sticky Is exhibit displaying her printmaking. Sticky Enough? A Distributional and Impulse Response Analysis of New Keynesian DSGE Models,” Marty Perry visited Clara Graziano (Ph.D.92) and is forthcoming in Journal of Money, Credit and Bruno Parigi (Ph.D.90) in Italy and toured the Banking, and “International Evidence on the Efficacy University of Padova where Bruno teaches. of New-Keynesian Models of Inflation Persistence,” is a Rutgers University discussion paper. Alex Hohmann (MA96), Nathan Weisman (MA.92), Nahla El Hawla (M.A.) and Ketaki Bhende (M.A.01) Michael Laracy’s (M.A.94) founded Rapid Insight sent regards from AT&T and notified us of a job Inc, a data mining software company. The company is opening. growing and he emailed with some job openings.

Darryl Jayson (MA.89) is working at Tobacco Mark LeClair (Ph.D.87) was also promoted to full Merchants Association. professor at Fairfield University. He has three papers published, “Externalities in International Trade: The Bill Johnson (Ph.D.71) has been busy publishing Case for Differential Tariffs,” in Ecological articles on health economics. His latest, “Reducing Economics, “Currency Regimes and Currency Crises: SCHIP Coverage: Saving Money or Shifting Costs” What about Cocoa Money, in Journal of International appeared in the American Journal of Public Health. Financial Markets, Institutions and Money and “Cost-Based Evaluation of the Treatment of Back Pain: “Reducing Gasoline Price Variability: A Modest A Primer for Health Care Professionals” was published Proposal in the Energy Journal. in The Spine Journal and “The Effects of Occupational Injuries after Returns to Work: Work Absences and Ahyee Lee (Ph.D.83) sends greeting to all from Fu-jen Losses of On-the-job Productivity” is forthcoming in University. the Journal of Risk and Insurance. Fred Lee (Ph.D.83) was elected Acting Director of Lowell Johnson (Ph.D.97) stopped by the department International Confederation of Association for when in the area for a conference. He was promoted to Pluralism in Economics. He is editor of a Heterodox Director of International Tax at the Alcatel office in Economics Newsletter and was invited to give the Texas. keynote address at the History of Economics Society of Australia on “Making History by Making Identity and Sung Won Kang’s (Ph.D.06) paper, “A Gibbs Institutions: The emergence of Post Keynesian Sampling Algorithm for a Changing Regress Model Heterodox Economics in Britain 1870-1996.” He is with Pooled Binary Response” was published in presently on leave working on three papers on Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods. heterodox economics.

Georgios Katsaros (M.A.02) is working at R.W. Mark Lewis (M.A. 79) found time to run in a local Pressprich as a senior quantitative analyst, working election and won a seat on the Regional School Board with a structured products team arranging in Redding. Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs).

Economics Newsletter 11 Wei Liu (M.A.99) is working at Novartis as a found in the McKinsey Report on Corporate & Principal in its Biostatistics group. He has decided to Investment Banking. return to school to pursue a business degree in addition to his graduate degree. Arthur O’Neal (Ph.D.67) has retired from the New Jersey Department of Labor where he headed the Ray MacDermott ((Ph.D.04) has a new teaching research and statistical program. He presently serves position at Virginia Military Institute. He had two as a member of New Jersey’s State Employment and papers published, one in Global Economy Journal and Training Commission and does some consulting. one in North American Journal of Economics and Finance. Mihir Pandey (Ph.D. 96) is Chair of Economics Department at Ramjas College in India. Ward McCarthy (Ph.D.82) was in DC for a meeting with Bob Arnold (Ph.D.88) who is an economist at the Jim Polito (Ph.D.90) has relocated to Indianapolis and Congressional Budget Office. This year Ward was is an analyst/expert witness for the state consumer also one of the judges for the Fed Challenge advocate. competition. [Ward recently discovered someone posted a picture of him on YouTube marching in a Xufeng Qian (Ph.D.04) is now working at Moody’s in parade playing the bagpipes.] New York with the Structured Finance group, developing econometric models for mortgage backed Robert McLean (Ph.D. 81) was spotted by Neil securities. Sheflin (Ph.D.78) at the RMI 17th Annual Conference on Teaching Economics. Bob is retired from Rayen Quiroga-Martinez (M.A.87) emailed from Manhattan College is teaching at the Keller Graduate Chile where she is working for the Economic School of Management in Texas. Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean- ECLAC-UN is hoping to get in touch with some Mary Merva (Ph.D.89) emailed from Italy to tell us colleagues. she was awarded the prestigious, CFA Charter, a professional charter for investment professionals. Ron Stan Radchenko (Ph.D.02) presented “Do commodity Moy (Ph.D.90) was one of her sponsors. Besides prices and volatility jump?” at the 8th Valencia teaching at John Cabot University and St. John’s Bayesian meeting in Spain. University in Rome, she is book review editor for the Journal of Asian Economics and recently got Eungho Ruchika Sah (M.A.94) is the recipient of an M.A. in Ahn (Ph.88) to review a volume on North Korea. Instructional Technology from Teachers College, Columbia. She also free lances web designing. Luc Moens (Ph.D.91), at PricewaterhouseCoopers in London, recently organized a Conference on Joe Santos (Ph.D.96) is up for full professor this year International Development-Public Sector Reform: at South Dakota State and has been in touch with Achieving Effective Delivery of the Development Michael Bordo. Agenda-Lessons from the Front Line. Kunal Sen (Ph.D.89) is Professor of Development Junbien Moon (M.A.02) is teaching at Wharton. Economics and Policy at University of Manchester.

Antu Murshid (Ph.D.01) is on leave from University Amiya Sharma (Ph.D.94) is now Executive Director of Wisconsin/Madison and is visiting Louisiana State of the biggest microfinance institution (Rashtriya University where Tibor Besedes (Ph.D.03) is on the Gramin Vikas Nidhi) in India, which provides micro faculty. credit assistance to the poor in 14 states in the eastern part of India. Amiya was selected to present “Micro Tom Oberhofer (Ph.D.73) sent an inquiry about Mike finance Consolidation and Geographical Equity” at a Taussig, who sadly suffers from Parkinson’s Disease conference in Delhi. and is in a nursing home. Sharon Smith (Ph.D.74) has been named Provost and Sean O’Connell (MA 95) finished his MBS at Vice President for Academic Affairs for National University of Chicago and moved to McKinsey & University and Vice Chancellor for Academic Affairs Company in New York. His article, “Surviving-and for the National University System in La Jolla, prevailing-in the US subprime-mortage market” can be California. Her book, Finding the Best Business

Economics Newsletter 12 Schools for You Looking Past the Rankings, was during Rapid Economic Transition” in our Empirical recently published. Microeconomic Workshop in the Spring semester.

James Spalding (M.A.92) the Paraguayan Peter Zangari (Ph.D.94) VP at Goldman Sachs was Ambassador in Washington DC recently attended the asked by the Dean of the Graduate School to be a UN General Assembly. He promises to visit the member of the Dean’s Advisory Committee. Peter department before he returns home. stays in contact with Hiroki Tsurumi as they both keep on top of the latest research topics in empirical Harry Stark (Ph.D.58) sent the sad news that Stan finance and nonlinearity and MCMC algorithms. Rosenblatt (Ph.D.60) died. Harry keeps in touch with Phil Marcus (Ph.D.65) who lives in Florida and Jack Chernick of Brooklyn. Birth Announcements

Ray Stone (Ph.D.81) once again was instrumental in Amarnath Ananthanarayanan (Ph.D.98) and his the success of the undergraduate Federal Reserve wife, Vidya, had a baby girl, Kriti. Challenge Team (see Jeff Rubin’s article). Ray has Achintan Dey (Ph.D.98) emailed with the belated also been helping some high school teams in the inner news that he and his wife had a daughter, Malvika, in city compete in the Fed Challenge. But the big news is 2004. that Ray will be teaching Money in Banking for the Ron Drennan (Ph.D.98) and his wife, Helen, had their department in the Fall 2007 semester. He is going to second child. have his (old) mailbox back!!! Shigeru Hirota (M.A.99) and his wife had a baby son, Kiichiro, their first. Herb Striner (M.A.48) is writing a book about his Seo Yeon Hong (M.A.05) and her husband had a baby experiences with Milton Friedman and Arthur Burns. girl. Shiliang Li (M.A.06) and his wife welcomed a son, Andrea Terzi (Ph.D.86) recently met up with Yuchen, right in time for the Chinese New Year. Fernando Carvalho (Ph.D.86) Fred Lee (Ph.D.83) Junbein Moon (M.A.02) and his wife had a baby boy. and Jan Kregel (Ph.D.70) at a conference in Kansas. Ruchika Sah (MA.94) and her husband had a second Andrea is editing a book for Palgrave on Euroland and baby girl, Tiya. the world economy. Mike Shor (Ph.D.01) and his wife, Leslie, had a baby girl, Eliana (Ellie). They have a son. Elmira Valiyeva’s (Ph.D.03) article, “Lifestyle-related Defne Turker (Ph.D.04) and her husband had a baby Risk Factors and Risk of Future Nursing Home boy, Bora Alp, their first. Admission (with Louise Russell) appears in the Archives of Internal Medicine. Congratulations to following students who were Keith Waehrer (Ph.D.92) joined Bates and White in recently married. Washington, DC. Darryl Jayson Georgios Katsaros Cliff Waldman (M.A.90) is at Manufacturers Seungil Kim Alliance/MAPI in DC. He continues to write on the Seung Moon Lee Chinese economy and recently completed a two-part Minkyoung Yoo study on manufacturing and innovation. You Should See! Hark Yoo (Ph.D.04), working in the Bank of Korea, is utilizing all the “knowledge he learned at Rutgers from The graduate program had a bulletin board listing econometrics to macroeconomics.” He just finished many of the alumni, the year they received their two papers, one on money’s role in monetary policy; degree, their chairman and where they are now. the other on money’s role in inflation targeting It has been an inspiration to the present students. regimes. He is also revising “Markov Switching with ARMA-GARCH” for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics Many thanks to all the alumni who sent holiday and Econometrics. greetings. It is always great to hear from you. So keep in touch and send us your news. Myeong Su Yun (Ph.D. 2000), who is at Tulane, presented “Wage Growth and Inequality Change

Economics Newsletter 13 Contributions In Memoriam Contributions should be made payable to Rutgers We sadly report Thomas Fetherson died in April 2006. University Foundation and can be sent to the He received his Ph.D. in 1985 under the supervision of Foundation at 7 College Avenue, New Brunswick, Professor Peter Gray. He had been teaching at the New Jersey 08901 or the Department of Economics, 75 University of Alabama Birmingham (UAB). The Hamilton Street, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901. UAB School of Business established a Memorial Fund in his honor to endow the Thomas A. Fetherston Finance Scholarship that Tom had personally funded for years. Tom stayed in contact with many of his classmates and one said: “Tom had a calming effect on his classmates and friends. We will miss him.”

Department of Economics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey New Jersey Hall 75 Hamilton Street

New Brunswick, NJ 08901-1248

Economics Newsletter 14