A TRACK COUNT for ESTIMATING MOUNTAIN LION Felis Concolor Californica POPULATION TREND
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Biological Conservation 71 (1995J 251 259 ~, 1995 Elsevier Science Limited Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0006-3207/95/$09.50+.00 ELSEVIER 0006-3207(94)00034-4 A TRACK COUNT FOR ESTIMATING MOUNTAIN LION Felis concolor californica POPULATION TREND K. Shawn Smallwood* & E. Lee Fitzhugh WildliJb Extension, Wildlife and Fisheries Biology, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA (Received 15 September 1992; revised version received 4 April 1994; accepted 4 April 1994) Abstract INTRODUCTION Reliable estimates of status and population trend are Many populations of large terrestrial carnivores are critical Jor conservation of large terrestrial carnivores, declining, e.g., tiger Panthera tigris (Seal et al., 1987), but are usually lacking due to the high costs of sampling snow leopard Panthera uncia (Fox et al., 1991), wolves across large geographic areas. For detecting population Canis lupus (Schonewald-Cox & Buechner, 1991), and trends of mountain lion Fells concolor californica, we possibly mountain lions Felis concolor (Dixon, 1982). evaluated counts of track sets on 48 randomly chosen Knowing the status and population trends of these quadrats in CaliJornia. Each quadrat contained 33.8 km species will be critical for their conservation and man- of transect on dusty, dirt roads, which were chosen by agement. Attenders of the Third Mountain Lion local wildlife biologists. A count of track sets by one per- Workshop (Smith, 1989) voted overwhelmingly that son on all quadrats was more efficient than recording population census and trend should be the priority presence~absence by local survey teams. We estimated an mountain lion research, a sentiment shared by the most efficient sample size of 44 quadrats in California after complete reviewer of mountain lion literature (Ander- applying our data to a general formula for contagious son, 1983). However, standard monitoring programs distributions. This' sample size can be reduced substan- exist for only a few carnivore populations globally. The tially by choosing new transect locations based on associ- widespread distribution of mountain lions in California ations of tracks with topography and habitat. Tracks provided an opportunity for developing an indirect were most likely found on roads along lst- and 2nd-order sampling method, which can be adapted for use with streams, on mountain slopes and knolls~peaks, and in oak some other large carnivore populations. woodland and montane hardwood conifer forest. A Indirect sampling methods involve counts of tracks changing mountain lion population can be detected with or other sign for estimating population size of rare or an inexpensive, periodic track survey and self-stratifying, cryptic animals (Dice, 1941; Scattergood, 1954). They non-parametric tests. are usually less costly than direct sampling, in which Each track survey across CaliJornia can be finished in animals are found and counted (Morris, 1955; Davis & 30 days. The many mountain lions and the variety of envi- Winstead, 1980). Indirect sampling is thus more effi- ronmental conditions included at this extraordinarily large cient than direct sampling when it provides comparable spatial scale permit estimates of" (1) trends among popu- information at less cost (Eberhardt, 1978). Direct sam- lation strata in quadrats that are clustered according to pling across large areas is prevented by high cost typical number and age~sex class of track sets; (2) popu- (Fitzhugh & Gorenzel, 1986), so regional populations lation size and demography after individuals are identified of carnivores are often estimated by extrapolating esti- by their tracks, and after linear density on roads is cali- mates from direct sampling in small areas. Population brated from spatial density at intensive stud), sites; and trends are obtained by comparing extrapolated esti- (3) spatio-temporal associations with bobcat Felis rufus, mates among years. For example, the California De- black bear Ursus americanus, coyote Canis latrans, and partment of Fish and Game (CDFG) used sequential fox Vulpes vulpes and Urocyon cinereoargenteus. population estimates during the 1970s-1980s to argue that the mountain lion population increased in Califor- Keywords: California, conservation, Felis concolor, nia from about 1000 (Koford, 1978) to 5100 (CDFG habitat, population trend, road transect, track count. final environmental document on mountain lions, 1988). This 'population trend' was corroborated by anecdotal evidence, including livestock depredation records, road accidents, and sightings (Fitzhugh & Gorenzel, 1986; Mansfield, 1986). However, these *Present address: Institute for Sustainable Development, 516 estimates were derived from different investigators and Oeste Dr., Davis, CA 95616, USA. types of study. 251 252 K. S. Smallwood, E. L. Fitzhugh Kutilek et al. (1983) proposed a population index transects were lost by 1992 to pavement or oiling for using presence/absence of mountain lion tracks on road timber harvest. transects surveyed by volunteers. Karanth (1987) sug- We divided California along 0.5 ° latitude and longi- gested track surveys for monitoring tiger populations in tude lines into quadrats of 50 km 2. We selected survey India. Track surveys on road transects are convenient quadrats randomly and independent of habitat, except for some large-bodied species of Felidae, because indi- from areas that were mostly urban or agricultural, viduals of these species often travel along roads and inaccessible by road, or were coast and border areas trails (Koford, 1978; Karanth, 1987). However, such where most of the quadrat was ocean or in another road travel might be influenced by roadside habitat and state. Local biologists chose road transects within other factors (Stanley & Bart, 1991; Smallwood & quadrats (Fig. 1) according to our written guidelines. Fitzhugh, 1992). These influences need to be related to Quadrats contained up to three 11-3-km road transects track counts, quantitatively. >16 airline km apart unless separated by deep canyons Our goal was to develop administrative and analytical or urban areas. We assumed such barriers would procedures for a practical mountain lion population index decrease the chance for counting track sets made by the based on counts of track sets. The initial track counts same individual on both transects. Transect location provided a foundation for future sampling that can reveal was restricted by local land use, ownership patterns, population dynamics and ecological associations of and available dirt roads that were accessible by two- mountain lion and other carnivores in California. wheel-drive cars and trucks. Two quadrats at the state border had only enough space for two transects. An east-west transect orientation was requested for low METHODS sun angles and better track visibility. Local teams, consisting of one driver and one profes- Local teams were given written instructions for data sional wildlife biologist, established transects for moun- collection and tracking methods, and tracings and tain lion tracks along dusty dirt roads during 1985. The dimensions from tracks of mountain lion, bobcat, dog teams surveyed these transects during the summers of Canis familiaris, coyote, and black bear. Local teams 1985 and 1986. Smallwood surveyed these transects recorded presence/absence of mountain lion tracks on during 1986 and 1992 (Smallwood, 1994). A few each quadrat, while travelling at 5-8 kph. Dust ratings transects were changed before the 1986 survey because (Van Dyke et al., 1986) were required at the beginning, they were gravelled, paved, or impractical. Six more middle, and end of each transect and at track locations. Local survey teams sketched one track from each track set onto a pre-printed grid, and they recorded heel pad OREGON width, widest toe width, and an odometer reading. We used each sketch to verify that a mountain lion made N the track (Smallwood & Fitzhugh, 1989). L Smallwood surveyed from a motorcycle at 10-16 kph, because the greater field of view allowed more EVADA speed (Fitzhugh & Gorenzel, 1985). He recorded the number of track sets on each transect, including their locations, indicated directions of travel, and aspect of the road. A 'track set' was a contiguous series of pug- marks, presumably made by the same animal. Tracks were traced from each track set onto acetate (Panwar, 1979; Fitzhugh & Gorenzel, 1985). All this information was also recorded during 1992 for black bear, coyote, dog, bobcat, and fox (we did not distinguish between red fox and grey fox). These data were used for assess- Ji ing whether the mountain lion survey could be extended to other carnivore species. Smallwood also I ,;-- ; ,I.. mapped habitats and topography every 0.8 km or when PACIFIC -7 - . \ either variable changed. Habitat and topography were OCEAN ~ 52 . • , ' . tested for association with the mountain lion track sets found during 1986 and 1992, and with track sets of the other species found during 1992. "x ',-. :, We measured association with the following formula (Smallwood & Fitzhugh, 1992; Smallwood, 1993): MEXICO rx OBSERVED Fig. 1. Locations of quadrats and transects used in the 1986 My,x- y,y, X EXPECTED ' California mountain lion track surveys (transects are not to scale). The 1992 transect locations were shown in Smallwood (1994). Zx Mountain lion track count 253 where y, is the number of 0.16 km road segments Table 1. Potential costs for the California mountain lion track where a species' track set occurred with the Xth topog- survey raphy or habitat, or with tracks of the Xth species. The Costs base on Options: observed and expected numbers of transect segments 1986 surveys where tracks were found were rearranged for a A2 test, 1" 2 h 3' and their ratio measured the occurrence of tracks with the Xth associate as a multiple of that to be expected Person-days by chance. Coordination and preparation 14 5 14 Data analysis 5 5 5 We estimated a 1985 sample size of 55 quadrats with Tracking 44 30 88 the binomial equation, guessing we would find tracks on 50% of the quadrats. In 1986 we lowered our sam- Total person-days 63 40 107 ple size to 50 quadrats because there were too few sur- Dollar costs ($) vey teams available.