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Crossing the Rubicon Barton 1 Crossing the Rubicon Barton 1. Bernstein A Missed Opportunity to Stop the H-Bomb? are in some way limited, the future of our society will come increasingly into peril of the gravest kind. --Panel of Consultants on Disarmament, September 1952 Downloaded from http://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-pdf/14/2/132/694430/isec.14.2.132.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 That first thermonuclear] test ended the possibility of the only type of agreement that 1 thought was possible with Russia . an agreement to make no more tests. [It]would have been self-policing. 1 still think that we made a grave error in conducting that test at that time. Those who pushed that thing . without making that attempt have a great deal to answer for.’ -Vannevar Bush, April 1954 “In the thermonuclear tests at Eniwetok,” President Harry S. Truman announced in his January 1953 State of the Union address, “we have entered another stage in the worldshaking development of atomic energy.” This I am indebted for counsel to Coit Blacker, McGeorge Bundy, Alexander Dallin, Peter Galison, Allen Greb, Jonathan Haslam, Gregg Herken, David Holloway, Gail Lapidus, Condoleezza Rice, David Rosenberg, Scott Sagan, Martin Sherwin, and Herbert York; for various sources to Roger Anders, Nancy Bressler, Jack Holl, Sally Marks, and William Tuttle; for support to the Ford Foundation Program in International Security, Barbara and Howard Holme, the Center for the History of Physics (American Institute of Physics), the Harry S. Truman Library Institute, and the Center for International Security and Arms Control; for access to the James Conant papers to Theodore Conant; and for early access to the Lewis L. Strauss papers to Lewis H. Strauss and Richard Pfau. Earlier versions of this paper were presented in 1986-88 to the Peace Studies group and the Nuclear History group at Stanford University, and parts were presented in 1987 to the Institute on Global Cooperation and Conflict summer program at Sussex. Barton I. Bernstein is Professor of History and Mellon Professor of lnterdisciplinay Studies at Stanford University, where he directs the International Relations Program and the International Policy Studies Program. His most recent publications include “America‘s Biological Warfare Program in the Second World War” in the Journal of Strategic Studies, and (with Peter Galison) ”In Any Light: Scientists and the Decision to Build the Superbomb, 1942-1954,” in Historical Studies in the Physical and Biological Sciences. 1. Panel of Consultants on Disarmament, “The Timing of the Thermonuclear Test,” undated (probably September 1952), Department of State, Foreign Relations of the United States (hereafter FRUS), 1952-54, Vol. I1 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office [U.S. GPO], 1984), p. 1006. 2. Vannevar Bush in April, 1954; Atomic Energy Commmission (AEC), In the Matter of!. Robert Oppenhezrner (Washington, D.C.: U.S. GPO, 1954), p. 582. International Security, Fall 1989 (Vol. 14, No. 2) 0 1989 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 132 Crossing the Rubicon 1 133 potential new weapon, he explained, ”moves into a new era of destructive power, capable of creating explosions of a new order of magnitude, dwarfing the mushroom clouds of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.” It was the world’s first test of a thermonuclear de~ice.~ Truman’s statement about the October 31 explosion, tucked into a single Downloaded from http://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-pdf/14/2/132/694430/isec.14.2.132.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 paragraph in a lengthy speech, was designed to downplay the recent event. His comment was only the second official mention of the test. He did not disclose that, at about ten megatons, it had literally destroyed a small Pacific island, leaving a gaping crater in the ocean floor. The explosion was about 800 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.4 Warning the Soviets and the world of the dangers of nuclear war, Truman stressed that he wished that the world could pursue only the peaceful atom, and he blamed the Soviets for blocking international control of atomic energy. He said that he, with the American people, would support the incoming Eisenhower administration’s efforts to ”make this newest of man’s discov- eries a source of good and not of ultimate destruction.” But he held out virtually no hope for any control of the arms race or the achievement of a Soviet-American settlement in the near future. He called for continued tough- ness in dealing with the ”masters of the Kremlin” and thus justified building a stockpile of H-b~mbs.~ Such bleak counsel, expressing Truman’s sincere beliefs, concealed dis- putes within the administration on whether, and how, to mention the ther- monuclear test, and, more importantly, even whether to hold it at all. A small group of respected advisers (the Panel of Consultants on Disarmament) had pleaded, unsuccessfully, that the United States not hold the test and that it seek instead an agreement with the Soviet Union not to conduct any thermonuclear tests. Until that first test, these advisers believed that there was a real possibility of blocking the H-bomb. After the test of a thermonu- clear device, an actual weapon seemed only about a year away, and an agreement, impossible. The proposed Soviet-American agreement, had it been established, might have spared the world much of the horror of the hydrogen bomb era; it thus may have constituted a missed opportunity to halt, or at least to slow down, 3. Truman speech, January 7, 1953, in Public Papers of the Presidents: Harry S. Truman, 1952-53 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. GPO, 1966), p. 1125. 4. Gordon Dean to Dwight D. Eisenhower, November 7, 1952, AEC Document (Doc.) 356, Historian’s Office (HO), Department of Energy (DOE), Germantown, Md. 5. Truman speech, January 7, 1953. International Security 14:2 I 134 the nuclear arms race. Lamenting that there had been, indeed, a lost chance, Vannevar Bush, the major 1952 proponent of the agreement, told a close associate, "I feel that an opportunity was missed and that history will prob- ably record that it was." Bush, the president of the Carnegie Institution and Roosevelt's top World War I1 science adviser, admitted that he had no idea Downloaded from http://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-pdf/14/2/132/694430/isec.14.2.132.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 whether the Soviets would have joined in an agreement, but he believed "that the attempt [would have been] worthwhile.'"j Claims of a missed chance, especially when illuminated by recently de- classified sources from that period, inspire an effort to understand more about this little-known 1952 proposal,' why and how it lost, and whether it was seriously considered at the upper levels of the administration. Was this lost opportunity a near miss, blocked by minor contingencies, or was its defeat virtually inevitable, dictated by the Truman administration's attitudes and other powerful forces? This essay argues that, because of the domestic political consensus and the views of the Truman administration itself, there was no likelihood that this 1952 proposal could have won acceptance in the United States. To put these issues in a broad context, the essay also briefly discusses the 1952-53 panel's general report for reorienting American nuclear policy, the relation- ship of these recommendations to the 1953-54 Oppenheimer loyalty-security case, and the question whether the Soviet Union in 1952-53 might have accepted an American proposal to bar all thermonuclear testing. Such a proposal, this article concludes, would have been in the Soviets' interest and might indeed have proved acceptable. 6. Vannevar Bush to James Conant, March 29, 1954, Box 27, Bush Papers, Library of Congress (LC). On Bush, see also AEC, In the Matter of]. Robert Oppenheimer, pp. 561-568. Strangely, in 1954, Bush incorrectly placed this proposal in 1953, not 1952, and also erred by recalling it as only his idea, not a panel recommendation. 7. Until recently, the main sources on the panel were the skimpy references in AEC, In the Matter of Oppenheimer, pp. 247-248,561-568,589-590, and 927-928. The panel is also mentioned, very briefly (usually just a paragraph), in six older studies: Norman Moss, Men Who Play God: The Story of the H-Bomb and How the World Came to Live with It (New York: Harpers, 1968), p. 58; John Major, The Oppenheirner Hearings (New York: Stein, 1971), pp. 142-143; Stanley Blumberg and Gwinn Owens, Energy and Conflict: The Life and Times of Edward Teller (New York: Putnam, 1976), p. 294; Robert A. Divine, Blowing on the Wind: The Nuclear Test Ban Debate (New York: Oxford, 1978), p. 16; Philip Stern, with Harold Green, The Oppenheimer Case: Securify on Trial (New York: Harper and Row, 1969), pp. 194-195; and McGeorge Bundy, "The Missed Chance to Stop the H-Bomb," New York Revim of Books, May 13, 1982, p. 19. In 1988-89, two additional studies briefly treated the 1952 effort: McGeorge Bundy, Danger and Survival: Choices about the Bomb in the First Fifty Years (New York: Random House, 1988), p. 228; and Peter Galison and Barton J. Bernstein, "In Any Light: Scientists and the Decision to Build the Superbomb, 1942- 1954," Historical Studies in the Physical and Biological Sciences, Vol. 19, Part I1 (1989), p. 328. Crossing the Rubicon I 135 An Earlier Opporfunity The hope for a no-test agreement had first arisen in late October 1949, when eight members of the Atomic Energy Commission’s (AEC) General Advisory Downloaded from http://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-pdf/14/2/132/694430/isec.14.2.132.pdf by guest on 24 September 2021 Committee (GAC), chaired by physicist J.
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