Gold Developers: Growth Beyond the Gold Price
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Gold developers: growth beyond the gold price Amarillo Gold (AGC CN): Initiating with BUY rating and C$0.70/sh PT RISK RATING: HIGH Ascot Resources (AOT CN) Initiating with BUY rating and C$1.80/sh PT RISK RATING: HIGH Euro Sun Mining (ESM CN): Initiating with BUY rating and C$1.05/sh PT RISK RATING: HIGH Rio2 (RIO CN): Initiating with BUY rating and C$1.60/sh PT RISK RATING: HIGH Geopacific Resources (GPR AU): Maintain BUY rating and A$1.95/sh PT RISK RATING: HIGH Sabina Resources (SBB CN): Maintain BUY rating and C$3.65/sh PT RISK RATING: HIGH We think underlying growth, not gold price, will be the key share price driver in the next two years, so we highlight six growth stocks here that at or near DFS. Explorers are seeing discoveries following drill-funding, but this is speculative, and exposed to current frothy valuations. Producers’ 3Q20 cash-flow inflection was impressive, but needs US$2,100/oz for a QoQ repeat and is exposed to rising AISC. Developers offer the sweet spot given (a) this equity-hungry catalyst- light sector missed some of the producer / explorer re-rate, (b) ability to re-rate into production at a flat gold price, and (c) a re-rate bar higher than ever. Specifically, Tier 1/2 producers currently trade at 9.2-12.0% FCF yield; the six developers covered average Y2 45% FCF yield, presenting a simple investment case. In fact, as miners lower cut-off grades and catch up strip, we would suggest delivered FCF yields will contract. As such, an EV/100koz pa of production of US$687-546m for Tier 1/2 producer is as relevant, with six developers here averaging just US$266m/100koz pa. The final silver-lining of the strong gold price is higher FCF and ECM support during high-risk ramp up periods, meaning the ultimate risk, a share-count blow out, is diminished. One word of warning to either valuation and specifically to M&A is the risk of juniors seeking ‘reserve prices for resources’. We suggest that M&A, especially on better-valued names, needs a DFS to de-risk sufficiently for the bidding company’s board, and DFS’ rarely hit PEA/Scoping outcomes. All six names here have a completed DFS, or a new or revised/revalidated DFS is scheduled for this or the next quarter. Amarillo: simple Brazil open pit with plenty of exploration upside Amarillo offers a simple and deliverable 100kozpa, 4.4:1 strip, 2.5Mtpa pittable CIL project in central Brazil. Management includes significant Brazilian building and operating experience and we expect a US$100m debt package to finalise financing shortly, with first production expected in 2H22. We estimate the stock is trading at 0.4xNAV. Ascot Resources: on the cusp of build start in prime on-infrastructure BC location Targeting a 150-200kozpa brownfield redevelopment in BC, benefitting from roads, hydro grid power access and an existing mill building. The market is discounting significant caution but we estimate that the early near-mill ounces pay back mine capital and the share price, leaving the rest as upside. We estimate that the company is trading at 0.4x NAV. Euro Sun Mining: overlooked porphyry developer offers long life returns and scalability A low valuation from permitting pessimism is set to reverse in our view as permitting continues at pace for 2021 target completion. ESM offers nearly 20 years at 120-140koz AuEq and a >50% annual FCF yield. A DFS incorporating the Rovina deposit (1Q21) paves the way for first production by 2024. We estimate the stock trades at 0.1x NAV. Geopacific: 100koz pa vanilla open pit in Papua New Guinea with revalidated DFS due this quarter This vanilla pit in Papua New Guinea saw a step-change with new CEO Tim Richards this year, former GM of neighbour Simberi. The 1Moz 1.1g/t reserve supports ~100koz pa through a 2.4Mtpa CIL, with a revalidated DFS due this quarter. A US$100m debt package is being finalised for 1Q21 build start. We estimate the stock trades at 0.2xNAV. Rio2: simple heap leach with scale-up potential. Alex Black of Rio Alto success returns to offer a scalable heap leach developer targeting a 100kozpa 20ktpd heap leach operation in the Chilean Atacama with scope to expand. The 5Moz resource base means that this is a long life 25% FCF yield generator that could grow into a 300koz pa producer. We estimate the stock trades at 0.3x NAV. Sabina Gold & Silver: Nunavut developer with revised DFS in 1Q21 to hit SCPe C$2bn NAV Sabina is targeting ~200koz pa over 12 years from its permitted Back River mine in Nunavut. Although a 2.5Moz 6.3g/t reserve is already in place, we expect the 1Q21 FS to incorporate a remodel (add ounces and grade profile), reschedule (bring UG forward), and re-size (staged expansion from 3ktpt to 4ktpd). We estimate the stock trades at 0.5xNAV. All prices in this report as of November 13 unless otherwise noted Sprott Capital Partners Equity Research 1 SECTOR OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................................... 4 AMARILLO GOLD .......................................................................................................................................... 6 INVESTMENT THESIS .......................................................................................................................................... 7 VALUATION ........................................................................................................................................................ 9 RECCOMENDATION: INITIATE COVERAGE WITH BUY RATING AND C$0.70/SH PT .......................................... 10 ASSET SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................. 14 ASCOT RESOURCES .................................................................................................................................... 23 INVESTMENT THESIS ........................................................................................................................................ 24 VALUATION ...................................................................................................................................................... 29 RECOMMENDATION: INITIATE COVERAGE WITH BUY RATING AND C$1.80/SH PT ......................................... 30 ASSET SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................. 32 EURO SUN MINING .................................................................................................................................... 37 INVESTMENT THESIS ........................................................................................................................................ 38 VALUATION ...................................................................................................................................................... 42 RECOMMENDATION: INITIATE COVERAGE WITH BUY RATING AND C$1.05/SH PT ......................................... 44 ASSET SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................. 46 RIO2 GOLD.................................................................................................................................................... 54 INVESTMENT THESIS ........................................................................................................................................ 55 VALUATION ...................................................................................................................................................... 60 RECOMMENDATION: INITIATE COVERAGE WITH BUY RATING AND C$1.60/SH PT ......................................... 60 ASSET SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................. 63 GEOPACIFIC RESOURCES .......................................................................................................................... 69 SABINA SILVER & GOLD ............................................................................................................................ 72 Sprott Capital Partners Equity Research 2 Developer sector note, 17 November 2020 Producers offer low FCF yields Tier 1 producers currently average a 9% FCF yield as share prices keep up with gold prices, while Tier 2 producers have a wider range, averaging 12%. On face value, investors see this as cyclically high levels, up from ~5-7% in 2H18, as a good reason to hold these names; who wouldn’t if they could generate their market cap in cash in the next ten years. However, the market has an uncanny knack of getting it right in our view – in this case, the issue at hand is the ‘dirty little secret’ of gold miners: margins – they are price inelastic. Specifically, ‘why would we throw out economic’ ore is a legitimate question a GM would ask, simply meaning that grades fall with rising prices, meaning mine lives extend, but margins face pressure in a rising gold price. Figure 1. 2021 consensus FCF yield for Tier 1 and Tier 2 gold producers average 9.2% and 12.0%, respectively Sibanye-Stillwater Centerra Oceana Gold Kinross Endeavour Anglogold Equinox Harmony Polymetal Silver Lake Lundin Gold Fields SSR Mining Kirkland Lake Pretium New Gold Polyus Centamin B2Gold Teranga Regis Northern Star Yamana Fresnillo St Barbara Evolution Barrick Hecla Saracen Newmont Buenaventura Newcrewst Eldorado