Boston Market Viewpoint
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Research & Forecast Report GREATER BOSTON MARKET VIEWPOINT Q4 2015 Boston Overview Large Requirements The downtown Boston office market was running on all cylinders in TENANT SF INDUSTRY 2015, posting over two million square feet of positive absorption Putnam Investments 250,000 Financial Services and an unprecedented seven million square feet for the five- Eze Castle 125,000 Technology year period 2011 to 2015. The Financial District was by far the Advent International 100,000 Financial Services largest contributor to the positive results in 2015. Occupancy in this core submarket increased by over 1.3 million square feet WeWork 90,000 Business Services with the majority (920,000 SF) recorded in the low-rise segment Rue LaLa 75,000 Retail of the Class A tower market. Nearly 400,000 square feet of Boston Globe 75,000 Media/Publishing positive absorption was recorded in the Seaport, largely due to the construction completion of 101 Seaport Square, a 420,000-square- Velocity foot office building anchored by PwC. > Velocity (signed lease activity) was healthy over the course of 2015, with approximately 4.6 million square feet of leases signed. Statistics in the core submarkets are as follows: > The largest transaction in 2015 was BNY Mellon’s Boston Market Statistics 250,000-square-foot renewal at One Boston Place. Although this represented a contraction of approximately 100,000 square 2015 MARKET SEGMENT SUPPLY (SF) VACANCY RATE* ABSORPTION feet for the financial services firm, market-wide tenants in Financial District – Class A 27,762,321 9.1% 1,192,196 growth mode far outnumbered those reducing their space requirements. Financial District – Class B 6,054,905 7.2% 132,261 Total 33,817,226 8.8% 1,324,457 > One of the more notable 2015 expansions was LogMeIn’s first quarter lease for 118,000 square feet of expansion space at 333 Seaport – Class A 3,487,295 2.1% 524,104 Summer Street. The workplace-connectivity firm relocated from Seaport – Class B 4,545,896 11.3% -141,614 Woburn in 2012 and by doubling the size of its office footprint Total 8,033,191 7.3% 382,490 secured its position as the largest high tech company in the Back Bay – Class A 10,863,855 9.8% -9,436 Seaport submarket. Both the expansion space and existing Back Bay – Class B 2,030,085 17.5% 32,223 headquarter building across the street are in renovated former Total 12,893,940 11.0% 22,787 brick and beam warehouse buildings typical of space desired by * Includes sublease space tech and new economy tenants. The largest 2015 transactions include: Supply and Demand > Supply totals 63.9 million square feet of which 29.2 million Select 2015 Transactions square feet is located in Class A towers in the Financial District TENANT ADDRESS SF SUBMARKET (32 buildings, 22.1 million SF) and the Back Bay (9 buildings, 7.1 BNY Mellon One Boston Place 250,000 Financial District million SF). Children’s 401 Park Drive 250,000 Fenway/Kenmore > Demand is being driven by the TAMI sector (Technology, Hospital Advertising, Media, and Information). Tech companies in Houghton Mifflin 125 High Street 200,000 Financial District particular, some migrating from the ultra-tight Cambridge market, Boston Medical 529 Main Street 175,000 Charlestown are increasingly drawn to the CBD while still maintaining access Center to the Red Line. Wells Fargo 125 High Street 150,000 Financial District > Cambridge-based Akamai Technologies is in the market with a 600,000-square-foot requirement and looking at potential Boston > The aggregate volume of lease transactions in 2015 was down options. slightly relative to prior years due a reduction in both the total number of transactions as well as the average lease size. On > Demand is healthy heading into 2016, with over 200 tenants in the flip side, the pace of downsizing by law firms and financial the market seeking an aggregate of roughly four million square services firms seemed to subside in 2015 and given way to a feet of space. Although the median requirement is less than growing number of start-ups and tech users locating in the CBD. 10,000 square feet, some of the larger requirements include: Growth from these new economy tenants could bode well for future expansion over the next few years. 2 Greater Boston Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2015 | Boston | Colliers International > There was a noted recovery over the past two years in the Rental Rates Financial District, with the submarket recording more than its > Growth in the overall market is fueling rising rents, driven by proportionate share of transaction velocity and the other core tenant migration from outside the city and an improved job submarkets – the Seaport and Back Bay – contributing a lesser market. share. > Investment sale activity has also served to push rents as Lease Velocity by Submarket investors paying top dollar for assets seek immediate returns. 6 > With the growing demand for innovation space, some of the Class B brick and beam space is priced higher than historically more 5 expensive tower space. 4 > The spread between asking rents in various segments of the 3 market is depicted in the following table: Millions 2 Rental Rates 1 SPACE TYPE RENTAL RANGE/SF 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Class A – High Rise $65 - $85 Financial District Seaport Back Bay Other Class A – Mid Rise $55 - $65 Class A – Low Rise $48 - $60 Class B $38 - $55 Absorption and Vacancy > The year-end vacancy rate of 8.9% compares favorably to the Development 11.0% rate at the end of last year, as momentum remained steady and positive over the course of 2015. > Over 900,000 square feet of positive absorption in the low- rise segment of the Financial District continues a trend noted in 2014, where tenants seeking value options and accessibility are attracted to the submarket’s favorable pricing and central location. > 2015 was less a year of “blockbuster” transactions than many mid-sized tenants leasing a single floor and driven by organic growth, the desire to migrate to the central core, and a search for Hub on Causeway value. > Three buildings totaling approximately 850,000 square feet > Positive absorption over the next few years should drive the delivered during 2015 – the 187,000-square-foot Converse vacancy rate down into lower single-digits, as depicted in the headquarter building near North Station, Samuels & Associate’s following graph: spec office development at 1325 Boylston Street in the Fenway submarket, and Skanska’s 101 Seaport Square anchored by PwC. Forecast > The pipeline is active with 2.3 million square feet under Vacancy and Absorption construction at year-end to deliver between early 2016 and late 2018. These include projects across the city from the Seaport 2,500 20% Forecast to North Station and in between and both pre-leased as well as 2,000 15% speculative development. Additional projects representing more 1,500 8.9% 6.0% 10% than three times that amount of new inventory is either proposed 1,000 or permitted to move forward. 500 5% 2008 2009 2010 0 0% housands) 2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -500 Looking Ahead… (T SF SF -1,000 > Continued upward pressure on rents is anticipated over the next -1,500 24 months. -2,000 > While the traditional drivers including legal and financial services -2,500 Total Boston Absorption Total Boston Vacancy Rate firms still fuel demand in the CBD, more start-ups and tech companies will be attracted to Boston’s excellent labor pool, public transit and innovation environment. > Boston will remain a target for investment capital – both foreign and domestic. 3 Pharmaceuticals put into doubt the company’s need for the full Cambridge Overview 386,000-square-foot build-to-suit lab building being developed by Alexandria Real Estate Equities. That question was answered in August when Ariad subleased 165,000 square feet – now The 22.2-million-square-foot Cambridge office and lab market being built out as office space – to Watson Health, a unit of IBM, shattered last year’s record-breaking performance, with 1.9 million with an expected mid-2016 occupancy. square feet of positive absorption, a sharp decline in the vacancy rate, and skyrocketing rents. The year-end vacancy rate of 4.6% Transaction velocity was robust, with sizable lease transactions compares to 8.8% at the end of 2014 and is the lowest in 15 executed by the following tenants in 2015: years. In both the office and lab markets, tenants of all sizes found Select 2015 Transactions options extremely limited, particularly in the Kendall Square/East QUARTER Cambridge submarket. TENANT ADDRESS SF SIGNED Key statistics at the end of 2015 include: Sanofi 50 Binney Street Q1 251,000 HubSpot 25 First Street Q4 185,500 Cambridge Market Statistics IBM 75 Binney Street Q3 165,000 MIT 600 Technology Square Q2 109,000 MARKET SEGMENT SUPPLY (SF) VACANCY RATE 2015 ABSORPTION Takeda Vaccines 350 Massachusetts Avenue Q2 69,100 Total Cambridge* 22,176 4.6% 1,858 HubSpot 2 Canal Park Q1 60,000 Office 11,550 6.2% 493 Alnylam Pharmaceuticals 101 Main Street Q2 58,350 Lab 9,723 3.0% 1,276 MIT 1 Main Street Q1 46,000 *Includes R&D space Alnylam Pharmaceuticals 101 Main Street Q1 23,350 MIT 700 Technology Square Q2 14,250 Office Market > Conditions in the core Kendall office market have been tight for > The vacancy rate in the 11.6-million-square-foot office market the past couple years. The largest block of available space in this has been in the high single digits for the past three years, and micro-market is 96,000 square feet on three full floors at BioMed tightened to 6.3% over the course of 2015.