A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Public Disclosure Authorized

The Zambezi River Basin A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Public Disclosure Authorized

V o l u m e 4 Modeling, Analysis Public Disclosure Authorized and Input Data Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

THE WORLD BANK GROUP 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 USA THE WORLD BANK

The Zambezi River Basin A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Volume 4 Modeling, Analysis and Input Data

June 2010

THE WORLD BANK Water Resources Management Africa Region © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected]

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Cover photos: © Photographer Len Abrams/World Bank © Photographer Marcus Wishart/World Bank © Photographer Vahid Alavian/World Bank Contents

Acknowledgments...... xi

Abbreviations and Acronyms...... xiii

1.. the Zambezi River Basin: Background and Context...... 1 1.1 Motivation for This Analysis...... 1 1.2 Summary of Findings ...... 3 1.3 Basic Characteristics of the Zambezi River Basin...... 3 1.4 Population and Economy...... 7 1.5 Approach and Methodology...... 7 1.5.1 Analytical framework...... 8 1.5.2 The River/Reservoir System Model...... 9 1.5.3 The Economic Assessment Tool...... 11

2.. the River/Reservoir Operation Model...... 13 2.1 System Characterization...... 13 2.2 Hydrology in the Model...... 14 2.2.1 Inflows...... 14 2.2.2 Local flows at control points...... 14 2.2.3 Evaporation...... 14 2.2.4 Hydrologic balance equation...... 15 2.3 Operating Guidelines and Rule Curves...... 15 2.3.1 Reservoirs...... 15 2.3.2 Flood management...... 16 2.3.3 The Zambezi Delta...... 17 2.3.4 Environmental flows (minimum flow and restoration of natural flooding)...... 17 2.3.5 Flows to support tourism...... 20 2.3.6 Flows to support fisheries...... 20 2.3.7 Other control point characteristics...... 20 2.4 Operation of the River/Reservoir System Model...... 21

3.. modeling Hydropower...... 23

4.. modeling Irrigation...... 27 4.1 Irrigation Reservoirs...... 27 4.1.1 Reservoirs for irrigation use in the river/reservoir system model...... 27 4.2 Modeling Irrigation Schemes...... 28

iii The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

5.. economic Assessment of Development Scenarios...... 31 5.1 Costs and Benefits of the Development Scenarios...... 31 5.1.1 Hydropower...... 31 5.1.2 Irrigation...... 33 5.2 Economic Evaluation of Environmental Impacts...... 33

References...... 35

Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – riparian Country Policies, Data,. Estimates, and Assumptions...... 39 A1.1 Angola...... 40 A1.1.1 Agriculture and irrigation development policies...... 40 A1.1.2 Area in the water allocation model...... 41 A1.1.3 Irrigation sector – current situation...... 41 A1.1.4 Identified irrigation development projects...... 41 A1.2 Botswana...... 42 A1.2.1 Agriculture and irrigation development policies...... 42 A1.2.2 Area in the water allocation model...... 43 A1.2.3 Irrigation sector – current situation...... 44 A1.2.4 Identified irrigation development projects...... 44 A1.3 Malawi...... 45 A1.3.1 Agriculture and irrigation development policies...... 45 A1.3.2 Overview of irrigation development...... 52 A1.3.3 Area in the water allocation model...... 54 A1.3.4 Irrigation sector – current situation...... 55 A1.3.5 Identified irrigation development projects...... 60 A1.4 Mozambique...... 66 A1.4.1 Agriculture and irrigation development policies...... 66 A1.4.2 Area in the water allocation model...... 67 A1.4.3 Irrigation sector – current situation...... 67 A1.4.4 Identified irrigation development projects...... 70 A1.5 Namibia...... 72 A1.5.1 Agriculture and irrigation development policies...... 72 A1.5.2 Area in the water allocation model...... 74 A1.5.3 Irrigation sector – current situation...... 74 A1.5.4 Identified irrigation development projects...... 75 A1.6 Tanzania...... 76 A1.6.1 Agriculture and irrigation development policies...... 76 A1.6.2 Area in the water allocation model...... 77 A1.6.3 Irrigation sector – current situation...... 77 A1.6.4 Identified irrigation development projects...... 78 A1.7 Zambia...... 79 A1.7.1 Agriculture and irrigation development policies...... 79 A1.7.2 Area in the water allocation model...... 81 A1.7.3 Irrigation sector – current situation...... 82 A1.7.4 Identified irrigation development projects...... 88 A1.8 Zimbabwe...... 90 A1.8.1 Agriculture and irrigation development policies...... 90

iv Contents

A1.8.2 Area in the water allocation model...... 94 A1.8.3 Irrigation sector – current situation...... 94 A1.8.4 Identified irrigation development projects...... 97

Annex 2. Identified Irrigation Projects and High-Level Irrigation Projects...... 103 A2.1 Identified Irrigation Projects (IPs) and Associated Abstractions...... 103 A2.2 High-Level Irrigation Projects (HLI) and Associated Abstractions...... 103

Annex 3. Estimating Crop-Related Water Requirements...... 113 A3.1 Methodology...... 113 A3.2 Reference Crop Evapotranspirations and Crop Coefficient...... 114 A3.2.1 Identifying, and determining length for growth stages of crops...... 114 A3.2.2 Selecting corresponding Kc coefficients for growth stages of crop...... 114 A3.3 Rainfall...... 115 A3.4 Efficiency of Irrigation Schemes...... 115

Annex 4. Modeling Partial Restoration of Natural Flooding in the Zambezi Delta...... 121 A4.1 Five steps of assessing impact of partial restoration of natural floods...... 121 A4.2 Comparing results...... 125 A4.3 Estimating the impact on other wetlands in the Zambezi River Basin...... 129

Annex 5. Estimated Impact of Climate Change on the Zambezi River basin by 2030...... 131 A5.1 FAO methodology for determining evapotranspiration...... 131 A5.2 Calculations of ETo for a temperature increase of +1.5°C...... 134 A5.3 New evapotranspiration table...... 134

Annex 6. Overview of Control Points in River/Reservoir Model...... 137

Tables

Table 1.1. Precipitation data for the Zambezi River Basin...... 4 Table 1.2. Population of the Zambezi River Basin (in thousands, 2005–06 data)...... 7 Table 1.3. Macroeconomic data by country (2006)...... 8 Table 2.1. Main hypothesis used for assessment of impact on tourism...... 20 Table 2.2. Assumptions for fish productivity (kg/ha)...... 21 Table 4.1. Main characteristics of the typical modeled irrigation schemes...... 29 Table 5.1. Hydropower projects in the Zambezi River Basin (included in MSIOA)...... 32 Table 5.2. Costs and benefits of hydropower development options...... 33 Table A1.1. Irrigation abstraction points in Angola...... 41 Table A1.2. Current irrigation areas in Angolan part of ZRB...... 42 Table A1.3. Identified projects in Angola: Irrigation areas...... 42 Table A1.4. The irrigation abstraction point in Botswana...... 44 Table A1.5. Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project: Monthly and daily water demand data...... 46 Table A1.6. Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project: water demand summary...... 52 Table A1.7. Summary of annual water consumption at full production (1,000 m3)...... 53 Table A1.8. Identified projects in Botswana (ha)...... 54 Table A1.9. Irrigation abstraction points in Malawi...... 54 Table A1.10. Current irrigation areas in Malawi: subbasin I.03.01 (ha)...... 57

v The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A1.11. Irrigated areas in Malawi: subbasin I.03.09 (ha)...... 59 Table A1.12. Overview of irrigated areas in Malawi (ha)...... 60 Table A1.13. Identified projects in Malawi (ha)...... 64 Table A1.14. Irrigation abstraction points in Mozambique...... 67 Table A1.15. Current irrigation areas in Mozambique (ha)...... 70 Table A1.16. Identified irrigation projects in Mozambique (hectares)...... 73 Table A1.17. Irrigation abstraction points in Namibia...... 74 Table A1.18. Current irrigation areas in Namibia (ha)...... 74 Table A1.19. Identified projects in Namibia: Irrigation areas (ha)...... 76 Table A1.20. Irrigation abstraction points in Tanzania...... 78 Table A1.21. Current irrigation areas in Tanzania (ha)...... 78 Table A1.22. Potential irrigation areas in the Tanzanian districts of the Zambezi River Basin (ha)...... 79 Table A1.23. Identified projects in Tanzania: Irrigation areas (ha)...... 79 Table A1.24. Irrigation abstraction points in Zambia...... 81 Table A1.25. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Kabompo subbasin (ha)...... 82 Table A1.26. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Barotse subbasin (ha)...... 83 Table A1.27. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Kariba subbasin upstream of Victoria Falls (ha)...... 83 Table A1.28. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Kariba subbasin downstream of Victoria Falls (ha)...... 84 Table A1.29. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Kariba subbasin, Kariba Reservoir (ha)...... 84 Table A1.30. Kafue irrigation zones...... 85 Table A1.31. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Kafue subbasin (ha)...... 86 Table A1.32. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Mupata subbasin (ha)...... 87 Table A1.33. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Luangwa subbasin (ha)...... 87 Table A1.34. Identified irrigation projects in Zambia...... 91 Table A1.35. Irrigation abstraction points in Zimbabwe...... 95 Table A1.36. Current irrigation areas in Zimbabwe...... 98 Table A1.37. Identified irrigation projects in Zimbabwe...... 100 Table A2.1. Additional areas of identified irrigation projects, by subbasin and country (ha)...... 104 Table A2.2. Identified irrigation project, by subbasin and crop (additional ha)...... 105 Table A2.3. Identified irrigation projects, by country and crop (additional ha)...... 106 Table A2.4. Additional annual water abstraction requirements for identified irrigation projects (1,000 m3/year)...... 107 Table A2.5. Long-term high-level irrigation development in riparian countries...... 108 Table A2.6. High-level irrigation: additional equipped irrigation areas (ha)...... 109 Table A2.7. High-level irrigation areas in the Zambezi River Basin, by subbasin and country (ha)...... 109 Table A2.8. High-level irrigation: crops by season and subbasin (ha)...... 110 Table A2.9. High-level irrigation: crops by season and country (ha)...... 111 Table A2.10. Additional annual water abstraction requirements for high-level irrigation projects (1,000 m3/year)...... 112 Table A3.1. Monthly ETos per subbasin (mm)...... 114 Table A3.2. Crop calendar for winter wheat...... 114 Table A3.3. Kc for each crop considered in this study, by decades...... 116 Table A3.4. Mean monthly effective rainfall per subbasin (mm)...... 117 Table A3.5. Mean monthly effective rainfall per subbasin (mm)...... 118 Table A3.6. Efficiency of irrigation schemes in the Zambezi River Basin...... 118 Table A3.7. Abstraction requirement for one hectare of each crop using a gravity scheme in the Zambezi Delta subbasin (mm)...... 119 Table A4.1. Economic and financial values of direct uses in the Zambezi Delta (current situation)...... 122

vi Contents

Table A4.2. Key characteristics of scenarios incorporating partial restoration of natural flooding...... 123 Table A4.3. Target of restoring natural flooding in the Zambezi Delta...... 124 Table A4.4. Economic and financial values of direct uses in the Zambezi Delta for the target situation...... 126 Table A4.5. Contribution to the target situation for each scenario...... 127 Table A4.6. Economic and financial net value of restoration of natural flooding...... 128 Table A4.7. Flood periods and mean inflows...... 129 Table A4.8. Estimated reduction in value, per water use in wetlands...... 129 Table A5.1. Estimated impact of climate change in the Zambezi River Basin by 2030...... 132 Table A5.2. Increase in water requirement at selected CLIMWAT stations with 1.5°C increase in temperature (%)...... 133 Table A5.3. Increased water requirement at select CLIMWAT stations when temperature increases by 1.5°C (Scenarios 8 and 9)...... 134 Table A6.1. Control Points and associated abstraction points and projects in River/Reservoir Model...... 137

Figures

Figure 1.1. The Zambezi River Basin and its 13 subbasins...... 5 Figure 1.2. Schematic of the Zambezi River with deregulated mean annual discharge (m3/s) and runoff (mm)...... 6 Figure 1.3. Zambezi River Basin: scenario analysis matrix...... 9 Figure 1.4. Schematic of the river/reservoir system model for the Zambezi River Basin ...... 10 Figure 1.5. Schematic of the elements of the economic analysis tool...... 12 Figure 2.1. The Zambezi Delta...... 18 Figure 4.1. Irrigation storage reservoir model...... 28 Figure A1.1. Location of the Pandamatenga irrigation project...... 44 Figure A1.2. Part of the Muona irrigation scheme grown to dry weather rice...... 56 Figure A1.3. Tainter gate for the intake for the Muona irrigation scheme...... 56 Figure A1.4. Muona main canal taking water from Thangazi River...... 56 Figure A1.5. Part of Nkhate scheme grown to dry season maize, cassava, and sweet potatoes...... 56 Figure A1.6. Weir constructed on the Nkhate River...... 56 Figure A1.7. Nkhate main canal taking water from the Thangazi River to the scheme...... 56 Figure A1.8. Lujeri sugar estate...... 57 Figure A1.9. Shire Valley irrigation project location...... 62 Figure A1.10. Pumping station in the Zambezi River, for the Mpadue irrigation scheme...... 68 Figure A1.11. Plot from the scheme União das Cooperativas Agro-Pecuárias do vale de Nhartanda...... 68 Figure A1.12. Pumping station in the Zambezi River, for the CPFAT irrigation scheme...... 68 Figure A1.13. Abandoned infrastructure of the Lambane scheme...... 68 Figure A1.14. Floating pumping station installed on a canal, taking water from the Zambezi River, Sena Sugar Estate...... 69 Figure A1.15. Localization of the outlet of the main canal, probably not functioning well, Sena Sugar Estate...... 69 Figure A1.16. Chitima 1 irrigation project...... 71 Figure A1.17. Caprivi sugar project area...... 75 Figure A1.18. Pivot irrigation – the Chiawa irrigation scheme...... 85 Figure A1.19. Kaleya outgrowers...... 86

vii The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Figure A1.20. Area of middle Zambezi River Basin program on agricultural water management for food security...... 89 Figure A1.21. Different phases of the Nega-Nega project...... 90 Figure A1.22. River basins of Zimbabwe...... 95 Figure A2.1. Additional monthly water abstraction requirements for identified irrigation projects (1,000 m3/month)...... 108 Figure A2.2. Additional monthly water abstraction requirement of high-level irrigation projects (1,000 m3/month)...... 112 Figure A3.1. Crop calendar in Zambia...... 115 Figure A4.1. Comparison of historic and current flooding in the Zambezi Delta...... 123

Boxes

Box A.1. The Green Belt Initiative in Malawi...... 61

viii Currency Equivalents and Units

Currency Equivalents Against U.S. dollar

Angolan Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe new kwanza pula Euro kwacha metical dollar schilling kwacha dollar Kz P € MK Mt N$ T Sh K Z$ 2000 5.94 5.09 1.08 47.10 15.41 6.95 799.27 2,830.00 44.40 2001 11.51 5.72 1.12 70.03 20.33 8.62 876.59 2,845.37 55.26 2002 32.41 6.26 1.06 76.24 23.24 10.52 965.27 4,360.81 55.29 2003 57.65 4.91 0.89 95.24 23.31 7.57 1,036.79 4,841.94 577.19 2004 57.65 4.68 0.80 106.74 22.03 6.46 1,088.20 4,750.53 4,499.18 2005 74.90 5.11 0.80 116.84 22.85 6.36 1,125.36 4,432.60 21,566.90 2006 86.85 5.83 0.80 135.54 25.93 6.77 1,251.28 3,586.09 58,289.86 2007 77.38 6.15 0.73 139.72 25.56 7.06 1,241.24 3,996.41 9,296.66 2008 74.97 6.84 0.68 140.91 24.14 8.25 1,199.75 3,746.63 2,638,293,338 2009 77.97 7.14 0.72 141.75 26.87 8.43 1,324.34 5,049.15 21,830,975.04

Units 1 km3 = 1,000 hm3 = 1 billion m3 1 m3/s = 31.54 hm3/year = 0.033 km3/year 1 l/s/ha = 86.4 m3/day/ha = 8.6 mm/day 1 gigawatt hour (GWh) = 1,000 MWh = 1,000,000 KWh = 1,000,000,000 Wh 1 km2 = 100 ha

Unless otherwise specified, the symbol $ refers to U.S. dollars.

Acknowledgments

This report provides a summary of the series of reports development partners. Their participation and input and documents prepared to assess the water resources at the regional meeting in Gaborone, Botswana in July development options and benefits of cooperation among 2009, and at the eight national consultation workshops the riparian countries in the Zambezi River Basin. The held between September and December 2009 is much effort was led by a Bank Team consisting of Vahid Ala- appreciated. The financial contribution and support vian (Team Leader), Marcus Wishart, Louise Croneborg, from the Swedish International Development Coopera- Rimma Dankova, K. Anna Kim, and Lucson Pierre- tion Agency (Sida) and the Government of Norway are Charles. The initial Team Leader for this work was Len acknowledged with appreciation. Abrams, now retired. The Multi-Sector Investment Op- The World Bank peer reviewers for this work in- portunities Analysis is based on a series of reports and cluded Stephen Mink, Glenn Morgan, Daryl Fields, and model simulations prepared by a consortium of BRLi and Guy Alaerts. Francois Onimus also provided written Niras. The consultants served as partners and members comments. Their constructive inputs are very much of the team during the course of this work. appreciated. The team benefitted from the guidance of The Team gratefully acknowledges the contributions Rick Scobey, Acting Director for Regional Integration, by representatives of the riparian countries of the Zam- Inger Andersen, Director for Sustainable Development, bezi River Basin, the Southern Africa Development Com- and Ashok K. Subramanian, Sector Manager for Water munity (SADC) Water Division, and other international Resources Management, Africa Region.

Abbreviations and Acronyms

AAP Africa Action Plan ACP Agricultural Commercialization Program (Zambia) AF artificial flooding AMD acid mine drainage AMU Arab Maghreb Union ARA Administração Regional de Águas (Regional Water Administrations, Mozambique) ASDP Agricultural Sector Development Program (Tanzania) ASDS Agricultural Sector Development Strategy (Tanzania) AU African Union BIPP bankable investment project profile BOD biological oxygen demand BOS Bureau of Standards BPC Botswana Power Corporation CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program CBA cost benefit analysis CEC Copperbelt Energy Corporation PLC CEMAC Central African Economic and Monetary Community CEN-SAD Community of Sahel-Saharan States CEPGL Economic Community of the Great Lakes Countries COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CPC Climate Prediction Center CPFAT Centro Provincial de Formação Agrária de Tete (Mozambique) CRU Climate Research Unit CS current situation CSCO current situation with coordinated operation CSNC current situation without coordinated operation CVRD Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (Brazil) DMC Drought Monitoring Center DMU Disaster Management Unit DNA Direcção Nacional de Águas (National Directorate of Water, Mozambique) DNSA Direcção Nacional de Extensão Agrária (National Directorate of Agrarian Services, Mozambique) DPA Provincial Directorate of Water DRC Democratic Republic of Congo DSS decision support system DWA Department of Water Affairs DWAF Department of Water Affairs and Forestry EAC East African Community ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States ECMWF European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ECP Estratégia de Combate à Pobreza (Poverty Reduction Strategy, Angola) ECZ Environmental Council of Zambia EdM Electricidade de Moçambique (Electricity of Mozambique, Mozambique) EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

xiii The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

EIRR economic internal rate of return ENE Empresa Nacional de Electricidad (National Electricity Company, Angola) ESCOM Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ETo reference evapotranspiration ETP evapotranspiration EU European Union EUMETSAT European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites EUS epizootic ulcerative syndrome FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FSL full supply level GDP gross domestic product GMA Game Management Area GPZ Gabinete do Plano de Desenvolvimento da Região do Zambeze (Office of Development Planning for the Zambezi Region, Mozambique) GWh gigawatt hour ha hectare HCB HidroEléctrica de Cahora Bassa (Cahora Bassa Hydroelectrics, Mozambique) HEC Hydrologic Engineering Center HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative HLI high-level irrigation HLIC HLI with cooperation hm3 Cubic hectometer HPP hydropower plant HRWL high reservoir water level HYCOS hydrological cycle observation system I&C information and communication IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICM Integrated Committee of Ministers ICTs information and communication technologies IDF irrigation development fund IGAD Inter-Governmental Authority on Development IMF International Monetary Fund INAM Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (National Institute of Meteorology, Mozambique) IOC Indian Ocean Commission IP identified project (for irrigation) IPC IP with cooperation IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRR internal rate of return ITT Itezhi Tezhi Dam IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature IWRM integrated water resources management JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JOTC Joint Operation Technical Committee KAZA TFCA Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area kg/ha kilogram per hectare KGL Kafue Gorge Lower Dam KGU Kafue Gorge Upper Dam km3 cubic kilometers KWh kilowatt hour l/s liters per second LEC Lesotho Electricity Corporation LRRP Land Reform and Resettlement Program (Zimbabwe) LRWL low reservoir water level LSL low supply level m3/s cubic meters per second MACO Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (Zambia) MAP mean annual precipitation MAWF Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry

xiv Abbreviations and Acronyms

MASL minimum active storage level MDG Millennium Development Goal MDRI Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative MEA Ministry of Energy and Water MERP Millennium Economic Recovery Program (Zimbabwe) MFL minimum flow level mg/l milligrams per liter MKUKUTA Poverty Reduction Strategy for Mainland Tanzania (kiswahili acronym) mm/yr millimeters per year MMEWR Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Resources MOL minimum operating level MOPH Ministry of Public Works and Housing MoU memorandum of understanding MPRSP Malawi Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper MRU Mano River Union MSIOA Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis MW megawatt MWh megawatt hour NAMPAADD National Master Plan for Arable Agriculture and Dairy Development (Botswana) NAP national agriculture policy NDMO National Disaster Management Office NDP(s) national development plan(s) NDP2 National Development Plan 2 NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development NERP National Economic Revival Program (Zimbabwe) NIP national irrigation plan NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Services NMTIPs national medium-term investment programs NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPV net present value NSC north-south carrier NSC National Steering Committee NSGRP National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (Tanzania) NWSDS National Water Sector Development Strategy (Tanzania) ODA official development assistance OWE open water evaporation PAEI Política Agrária e Estratégias de Implementação (Agriculture Policy and Implementation Strategy, Mozambique) PAR population at risk PARPA Plano de Acção para a Redução da Pobreza Absoluta (Poverty Reduction Support Strategy, Mozambique) PARPA II Plano de Acção para a Redução da Pobreza Absoluta II (2nd Poverty Reduction Support Strategy, Mozambique) PASS II Poverty Assessment Study Survey II PFM public financial management PPEI Política Pesqueira e Estratégias de Implementação (Fishery Policy and Implementation Strategy, Mozambique) ppm parts per million PPP purchasing power parity ProAgri Promoção de Desenvolvimento Agrário (National Agricultural Development Program, Mozambique) PRSP poverty reduction strategy paper PSIP program and system information protocol RBO river basin organization RBZ Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe RCC roller-compacted concrete REC regional economic communities RIAS Regional Integration Assistance Strategy R-o-R run-of-the-river RSA Republic of South Africa RSAP Regional Strategic Action Plan SACU Southern African Customs Union SADC Southern African Development Community SADC-WD SADC Water Division

xv The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

SAPP Southern African Power Pool SARCOF Southern African Climate Outlook Forum SEA strategic environmental assessment SEB Swaziland Electricity Board SEDAC Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center SIDA Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency SIGFE Sistema Integrado de Gestão Financeira do Estado (Integrated Financial Management System, Angola) SMEC Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation SNEL Société Nationale d’Électricité (National Electricity Company, Democratic Republic of Congo) SSIDS small-scale irrigation development study SWOT strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats t/yr tons/year TANESCO Tanzania Electric Supply Company TVA Tennessee Valley Authority (United States) TWL tail water level UK United Kingdom UN/ISDR United Nations Inter Agency International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNDP United Nations Development Program UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization US$ United States dollar USAID United States Agency for International Development USGS U.S. Geological Survey VSAM Visão do Sector Agrário em Moçambique (Mozambique) WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union WAP Water Apportionment Board WASP Web Analytics Solution Profiler WFP World Food Program WHO World Health Organization WMO World Meteorological Organization WRC Water Resources Commission WTO World Trade Organization WTTC World Travel and Tourism Council ZACBASE Zambezi River database ZACPLAN Action Plan for the Environmentally Sound Management of the Common Zambezi River System ZACPRO Zambezi Action Project ZAMCOM Zambezi River Watercourse Commission ZAMFUND Zambezi Trust Fund ZAMSEC ZAMCOM Secretariat ZAMSTRAT Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Basin ZAMTEC ZAMCOM Technical Committee ZAMWIS Zambezi Water Information System ZAPF Zimbabwe’s Agriculture Policy Framework ZCCM Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines Ltd ZESA Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority ZESCO Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation ZINWA Zimbabwe National Water Authority ZRA Zambezi River Authority ZRB Zambezi River Basin ZVAC Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Committee

xvi The Zambezi River Basin: 1 Background and Context

The Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) is one of the most diverse and valuable natural resources in Africa. Its waters are critical to sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction in the region. In addition to meeting the basic needs of some 30 million people and sustaining a rich and diverse natural environment, the river plays a central role in the economies of the eight riparian countries—Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. It provides important environmental goods and services to the region and is essential to regional food security and hydropower production. Because the Zambezi River Basin is characterized by extreme climatic variability, the River and its tributaries are subject to a cycle of floods and droughts that have devastating effects on the people and economies of the region, especially the poorest members of the population.

1.1 Motivation for This Analysis

Despite the regional importance of the ZRB, few improvements have been made in the management of its water resources over the past 30 years. Differences in post-independence development strategies and in the political economy of the riparian countries, as well as the diverse physical characteristics of the Basin, have led to approaches to water resources development that have remained primarily unilateral. Better management and cooperative development of the Basin’s water resources could significantly increase agricultural yields, hydropower outputs, and economic opportunities. Collaboration has the potential to increase the efficiency of water use, strengthen environmental sustainability, improve regulation of the demands made on natural resources, and enable greater mitigation of the impact of droughts and floods. Seen in this light, cooperative river basin development and management not only provide a mechanism for increasing the productivity and sustainability of the river system, but also provide a potential platform for accelerated regional economic growth, cooperation, and stability within the wider Southern Africa Development Community (SADC).

1 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

The World Bank, other international finan- be expected from cooperative as opposed to cial institutions and development partners have unilateral development of irrigation schemes? a diverse portfolio of investments and support • Flood management, particularly in the Lower Zam- programs in the countries that share the ZRB. Still bezi and the Zambezi Delta. What options exist to lacking, however, is a sound analytical foundation permit partial restoration of natural floods and for a coordinated strategy that can optimize the Ba- to reduce flood risks downstream from Cahora sin’s investment potential and promote cooperative Bassa Dam? How would those options affect the development in support of sustainable economic use of the existing and potential hydropower and growth and poverty alleviation. irrigation infrastructure on the Zambezi River? The overall objective of the Zambezi River Multi- • Effects of other projects using the waters of the Sector Investment Opportunity Analysis (MSIOA) Zambezi River (e.g., transfers out of the Basin is to illustrate the benefits of cooperation among the for industrial uses). How might these projects riparian countries in the ZRB through a multi-sectoral affect the environment (wetlands), hydropower, economic evaluation of water resources develop- irrigation, and tourism? ment, management options and scenarios—from both national and basin-wide perspectives. The Within the context of an integrated approach analytical framework was designed in consultation to the development and management of water with the riparian countries, SADC Water Division resources, all water-related sectors are important. (SADC-WD) and development partners in line with This analysis, however, focuses on hydropower and the Zambezi Action Plan Project 6, Phase II (ZACPRO irrigation because of their special potential to stimu- 6.2). It is hoped that the findings, together with the late growth in the economies of the region. Other Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy demands for water—for potable water, environmen- and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Ba- tal sustainability, tourism, fisheries, and navigation, sin that was developed under ZACPRO 6.2 (2008), for example—are assumed as givens. Limitations of would contribute to development, environmental assigning economic value to non-economic water sustainability, and poverty alleviation in the region. users, such as ecosystems, are noted. To the degree In this analysis, the following development paths allowed by the available, published information, they have been assessed through a series of scenarios. are incorporated into the analysis as non-negotiable. The initial findings and the various drafts of • Coordinated operation of existing hydropower facili- this analysis were discussed at a regional workshop ties, either basin-wide or in clusters. By how much and at individual country consultations with all could hydropower generation increase if existing riparian countries. Also involved in these consulta- projects were coordinated? What is the potential tions were SADC, the international development impact of coordination on other water users? partners active in the Basin, and other interested • Development of the hydropower sector as envisioned parties. The final draft version was shared with in plans for the Southern African Power Pool the riparian countries as well for comments before (SAPP). What is the development potential of finalization. The Swedish International Develop- the hydropower sector? How would its expan- ment Cooperation Agency and the Government of sion affect the environment (wetlands in par- Norway provided financial support. ticular), irrigation, tourism, and other sectors? This report consists of four volumes: What gains could be expected from the coordinated operation of new hydropower facilities? Volume 1: Summary Report • Development of the irrigation sector through uni- Volume 2: Basin Development Scenarios lateral or cooperative implementation of projects Volume 3: State of the Basin identified by the riparian countries. How might Volume 4: Modeling, Analysis, and Input Data the development of irrigation affect the environment (wetlands), hydropower, tourism, and This section (1.1–1.5) appears as an introduction other sectors? What incremental gain could to all four volumes.

2 The Zambezi River Basin: Background and Context

1.2 Summary of Findings the Basin) would not have a significant effect on productive (economic) use of the water in the system The ZRB and its rich resources present ample at this time. But they might affect other sectors and opportunities for sustainable, cooperative invest- topics, such as tourism and the environment, espe- ment in hydropower and irrigated agriculture. cially during periods of low flow. A more detailed With cooperation and coordinated operation of the study is warranted. existing hydropower facilities found in the Basin, For the Lower Zambezi, restoration of natural firm energy generation can potentially increase by flooding, for beneficial uses in the Delta, including seven percent, adding a value of $585 million over a fisheries, agriculture, environmental uses and bet- 30-year period with essentially no major infrastruc- ter flood protection, could be assured by modify- ture investment. ing reservoir operating guidelines at Cahora Bassa Development of the hydropower sector accord- Dam. Depending on the natural flooding scenario ing to the generation plan of the SAPP (NEXANT selected, these changes could cause significant re- 2007) would require an investment of $10.7 billion duction in hydropower production (between three over an estimated 15 years. That degree of develop- percent and 33 percent for the Cahora Bassa Dam ment would result in estimated firm energy produc- and between four percent and 34 percent for the tion of approximately 35,300 GWh/year and average planned Mphanda Nkuwa Dam). More detailed energy production of approximately 60,000 GWh/ studies are warranted. year, thereby meeting all or most of the estimated Based on the findings for Scenario 8, which as- 48,000 GWh/year demand of the riparian countries. sumes full cooperation of the riparian countries, a With the SAPP plan in place, coordinated operation reasonable balance between hydropower and irriga- of the system of hydropower facilities can provide an tion investment could result in firm energy genera- additional 23 percent generation over uncoordinated tion of some 30,000 GWh/year and 774,000 hectares (unilateral) operation. The value of cooperative gen- of irrigated land. Those goals could be achieved eration therefore appears to be significant. while providing a level of flood protection and part Implementation of all presently identified na- restoration of natural floods in the Lower Zambezi. tional irrigation projects would expand the equipped The riparian countries together with their de- area by some 184 percent (including double crop- velopment partners may wish to act on the analysis ping in some areas) for a total required investment presented here by pursuing several steps, described of around $2.5 billion. However, this degree of in detail at the end of volume 1: development of the irrigation sector, without further development of hydropower, would reduce • Explore and exploit the benefits of cooperative hydropower generation of firm energy by 21 percent investments and coordinated operations; and of average energy by nine percent. If identified • Strengthen the knowledge base and the regional irrigation projects were developed alongside current capacity for river basin modeling and planning; SAPP plans, the resulting reduction in generation • Improve the hydrometeorological data system; would be about eight percent for firm energy and • Conduct studies on selected topics, including four percent for average energy. those mentioned above; and, Cooperative irrigation development (such as • Build institutional capacity for better manage- moving approximately 30,000 hectares of planned ment of water resources. large irrigation infrastructure downstream) could increase firm energy generation by two percent, with a net present value of $140 million. But com- 1.3 Basic Characteristics of plexities associated with food security and self-suf- the Zambezi River Basin ficiency warrant closer examination of this scenario. Other water-using projects (such as transfers The Zambezi River lies within the fourth-largest out of the Basin and for other industrial uses within basin in Africa after the Congo, Nile, and Niger

3 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis river basins. Covering 1.37 million km2, the Zambezi of the last remaining protected areas extensive River has its source in Zambia, 1,450 meters above enough to support large populations of large sea level. The main stem then flows southwest mammals. into Angola, turns south, enters Zambia again, • The Gorongosa/Cheringoma/Zambezi Delta area of and passes through the Eastern Caprivi Strip in central Mozambique, which covers an area of Namibia and northern Botswana. The Zambezi enormous habitat diversity not found in such River then flows through Mosi-oa-Tunya (Victoria close proximity elsewhere on the continent. Falls), shared by Zambia and Zimbabwe, before entering Lake Kariba, which masses behind Kariba The hydrology of the ZRB is not uniform, Dam, built in 1958. A short distance downstream with generally high rainfall in the north and lower from Kariba Dam, the Zambezi River is joined by rainfall in the south (table 1.1). In some areas in the the Kafue River, a major tributary, which rises in Upper Zambezi and around Lake Malawi/Niassa/ northern Zambia. The Kafue River flows through Nyasa, rainfall can be as much as 1,400 mm/year, the Copperbelt of Zambia into the reservoir behind while in the southern part of Zimbabwe it can be the Itezhi Tezhi Dam (ITT), built in 1976. From as little as 500 mm/year. there, the Kafue River enters the Kafue Flats and The mean annual discharge at the outlet of the then flows through a series of steep gorges, the site Zambezi River is 4,134 m3/s or around 130 km3/year of the Kafue Gorge Upper (KGU) hydroelectric (figure 1.2). Due to the rainfall distribution, north- scheme, commissioned in 1979. Below the Kafue ern tributaries contribute much more water than River confluence, the Zambezi River pools behind southern ones. For example, the northern highlands Cahora Bassa Dam in Mozambique, built in 1974. catchment of the Upper Zambezi subbasin contrib- Some distance downstream, the Zambezi River is utes 25 percent, Kafue River nine percent, Luangwa joined by the Shire River, which flows out of Lake River 13 percent, and Shire River 12 percent—for a Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa to the north. Lake Malawi/ total of 60 percent of the Zambezi River discharge. Niassa/Nyasa, which covers an area of 28,000 km2, is the third-largest freshwater lake in Africa. From the confluence, the Zambezi River travels some Table 1.1. Precipitation data for the 150 km, part of which is the Zambezi Delta, before Zambezi River Basin entering the Indian Ocean. The basin of the Zambezi River is generally de- Mean annual Subbasin No. precipitation (mm) scribed in terms of 13 subbasins representing major Kabompo 13 1,211 tributaries and segments (see map in figure 1.1). From a continental perspective, the ZRB con- Upper Zambezi 12 1,225 tains four important areas of biodiversity: Lungúe Bungo 11 1,103 Luanginga 10 958 • Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, a region of impor- Barotse 9 810 tance to global conservation because of the Cuando/Chobe 8 797 evolutionary radiation of fish groups and other Kafue 7 1,042 aquatic species. Kariba 6 701 • The swamps, floodplains, and woodlands of the Luangwa 5 1,021 paleo-Upper Zambezi in Zambia and northern Mupata 4 813 Botswana, including the areas of Barotseland, Shire River and Lake Malawi/ Busanga and Kafue, which along with the Ban- 3 1,125 Niassa/Nyasa gweulu are thought to be areas of evolutionary radiation for groups as disparate as Reduncine Tete 2 887 antelope, suffrutices, and bulbous plants. Zambezi Delta 1 1,060 • The Middle Zambezi Valley in northern Zimbabwe Zambezi River Basin, mean 956 and the Luangwa Valley in eastern Zambia, two Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007.

The Zambezi River Basin: Background and Context

IBRD 37633R D

Quelimane i Quelimane

z (ha) NOVEMBER 2010

e 40,158 53,768 78,768

m EQUIPPED AREA

a Z

i OCEAN INDIAN Songea Songea z MOZAMBIQUE MOZAMBIQUE e b m

KHOLOMBIDZO Z

Lichinga Lichinga 1 1

e 46,528 67,048 r

i 104,448

h KAPICHIRA II Caia Caia (ha/year) S NKULA FALLS TANZANIA TANZANIA Blantyre Blantyre KAFUE IRRIGATED AREA IRRIGATED Beira Beira 7 7 Wetlands Wetlands Marsh Marsh Lower Shire Lower Lower Shire Lower Elephant Elephant RUMAKALI TEDZANI LILONGWE LILONGWE 350 (ha) (ha) 6,650 Lupata Gorge 28,186 16,650 147,778 591,578 Lake KAPICHIRA I Nyasa Niassa/ 3 3 EQUIPPED AREA EQUIPPED AREA Mzuzu Mzuzu Chimoio Chimoio Malawi/ SONGWE I, II & III

Tete Tete

MALAWI MALAWI a LOWER FUFU

CAHORA BASSA Mbeya M Mbeya BENGA

MOATIZE

AND PLANT COAL MINE w g a n

a 595

u 44,531 11,314 28,328 L 228,919 948,825

e HCB (ha/year) (ha/year) r i KARIBA KABOMPO d NKUWA IRRIGATED AREA IRRIGATED IRRIGATED AREA IRRIGATED MPHANDA n BANK NORTH a s 6 6 Mutare Mutare 13 13 Chipata Chipata

M 5 5 2 2 (ha) (ha) i Lake 2,500 7,500 10,100 16,230 41,230 17,500 Kasama Kasama h as HARARE

iw Cahora Bassa Cahora

EQUIPPED AREA h EQUIPPED AREA s a

L g

Lake Tanganyika L

s ZAMBIA a

ZIMBABWE ZIMBABWE

n u

k i 3,250 8,250 17,794 28,857 73,814 20,750

u t L (ha/year) a (ha/year) Lake Bangweulu i

n UPPER ZAMBEZI LUANGWA IRRIGATED AREA IRRIGATED IRRIGATED AREA IRRIGATED Gweru Gweru

U 5 5 12 12 4 4

KARIBA SOUTH

L u n a s e m w f Lake Mweru GOKWÉ KAFUE GORGE LOWER KARIBA Bulawayo Bulawayo COAL FIRED (ha) (ha) 1,000 1,500 POWER PLANT Ndola Ndola 14,200 20,060 20,060 i 11,500

s Kabwe Kabwe

e EQUIPPED AREA EQUIPPED AREA Mansa Mansa

6 6 m

Lake e

Kariba

w a i e M n u w f a G a g

K n a Swamp Swamp Lubumbashi Lubumbashi Lukanga Lukanga h 1,250 1,875 21,790 30,356 30,356 S 14,375 (ha/year) (ha/year) KARIBA NORTH LUSAKA LUSAKA LUNGÚE BUNGO MUPATA IRRIGATED AREA IRRIGATED IRRIGATED AREA IRRIGATED 4 4 7 7 11 11

u f

KAFUE GORGE UPPER

Kafue Flats Kafue Flats

K a

g Choma Choma

BATOKA GORGE BATOKA n

u L MAAMBA COAL MINE 750 (ha) (ha) 5,750 42,416 15,750 101,927 451,927 Livingstone Livingstone Solwezi Solwezi EQUIPPED AREA EQUIPPED AREA Swamp Swamp Busanga Busanga CHOBE/ ZAMBEZI TRANSFER

13 13

i VICTORIA FALLS

j e

ITEZHI TEZHI 1,000 6,000

60,960 18,500 w 162,126 766,755

(ha/year) (ha/year)

O F C O N G O O F C O N G O d n LUANGINGA SHIRE RIVER & LAKE MALAWI/NIASSA/NYASA Kasane Kasane

IRRIGATED AREA IRRIGATED IRRIGATED AREA IRRIGATED

o s

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10 10 Caprivi-Chobe Caprivi-Chobe

M o

b 9 9 t a

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Mulilo y Mulilo

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

Katima n Katima

i i z L e b 200 (ha) (ha)

m 7,208 35,159 65,495 17,208 265,495 Maun a Maun

Barotse

i i

EQUIPPED AREA EQUIPPED AREA z

z Flats Flats

Luena Luena e

e Mongu Mongu

Floodplain Floodplain

b b

m m

a a

Z Z o d n a w BOTSWANA K BOTSWANA 340 12,753 30,466 52,572 108,193 508,193 (ha/year) (ha/year) BAROTSE TETE IRRIGATED AREA IRRIGATED IRRIGATED AREA IRRIGATED 9 9 2 2

a 12 12

10 10 g 8 8

o a g u n u L 620 920 (ha) (ha)

B 6,998 84,053 15,920 e 184,053 ú g

n EQUIPPED AREA EQUIPPED AREA u a

L n

Saurimo

u L 11 11 Luena Luena 765 7,664 1,215 Rundu Rundu 19,215 o 106,774 231,774 nd (ha/year) (ha/year) CUANDO/CHOBE a ZAMBEZI DELTA Cu AREA IRRIGATED AREA IRRIGATED 1 1 8 8 ANGOLA ANGOLA NAMIBIA NAMIBIA Menongue CURRENT SITUATION (CS) CURRENT SITUATION IDENTIFIED PROJECTS (IP) UPPER LIMIT POTENTIAL (HLI) (CS) CURRENT SITUATION IDENTIFIED PROJECTS (IP) UPPER LIMIT POTENTIAL (HLI) Tsumeb 90 MW 64 MW 64 MW 990 MW 124 MW 108 MW 600 MW 240 MW 340 MW 256 MW 100 MW 850 MW 360 MW 300 MW 120 MW 2,075 MW 1,470 MW 2,000 MW 1,600 MW 150 Miles 200 Kilometers ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN BASIN 100 10050250 50 ZAMBEZI SUB-BASIN BOUNDARIES WITHDRAWALS MAIN PLANNED WATER CAPITALS NATIONAL MAJOR CITIES BOUNDARIES INTERNATIONAL This map was producedWorld Bank.by the The Map boundaries, anyDesign other Unit information colors, of Thethe denominationspart shown of onThe this legalWorld and map Bankstatus do Group,not of imply,anyacceptance any territory, onjudgment of suchoron anythe boundaries. endorsement or EXISTING HYDROPOWER PLANTS CAHORA BASSA KARIBA KAFUE GORGE UPPER NKULA FALLS VICTORIA FALLS TEDZANI KAPICHIRA I PROJECTED HYDROPOWER PLANTS MPHANDA NKUWA* GORGE BATOKA KAFUE GORGE LOWER** KHOLOMBIZO SONGWE I, II & III RUMAKALI LOWER FUFU HYDROPOWER PLANT EXTENSIONS BANK HCB NORTH KARIBA NORTH KARIBA SOUTH ITEZHI TEZHI KAPICHIRA II 0 ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN Hydropower capacity estimates are based on the Southern Africa Power Pool, Nexant (2007) Study and updated as of 2010. * The estimate for Mphanda Nkuwa has been increased to 2,000 MW ** The estimates for Kafue Gorge Lower are 600 MW with the potential for an additional bay of 150 MW Figure 1.1. The Zambezi River Basin and its 13 subbasins River Zambezi The 1.1. Figure

vv The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Figure 1.2. Schematic of the Zambezi River with deregulated mean annual discharge (m3/s) and runoff (mm)

Zambezi River Sub River Discharge Runoff Catchment mean annual river Sub River Discharge Runoff Catchment basin BV bank Tributary (m3/s) (mm) area (km2) flow (m3/s) basin BV bank Tributary (m3/s) (mm) area (km2)

Kabompo 273 13 13-1 left/right Kabompo 273.0 109.4 78,683 Subtotal 273.0 109.4 78,683 Upper Zambezi 12 12-1 left/right Zambezi 742 256.2 91,317 1,015 Subtotal 742 256.2 91,317 Lungúe Bungo 11 11-1 left/right Lungúe Bungo 114 80.8 44,368 1,129 Subtotal 114 80.8 44,368 Luanginga 10 10-1 left/right Luanginga 69.4 61.0 35,893 1,198 Subtotal 69.4 61.0 35,893 Kwando/Chobe 8 8-1 left Kwando 32.5 9.0 113,393 8-2 left/right Chobe –32.5 –28.8 35,601 1,198 Subtotal 0.0 0.0 148,994 Barotse 9 9-1 left/right Zambezi –17.6 –4.8 115,753 1,180 Subtotal –17.6 –4.8 115,753 Kariba 6 6-1 right Gwayi 84 30.1 87,960 1,386 Kafue 6-2 right Sanyati 104 44.0 74,534 7 7-1 left/right Itezhi Tezhi 336 98.1 108,134 6-3 left/right Lake Kariba 18 55.6 10,033 1,758 7-2 left/right Kafue Flats 35.0 23.4 47,194 Subtotal 206 37.6 172,527 7-3 left/right Kafue D/S 0.7 47.6 477 Subtotal 372 75.3 155,805 Mupata 4 4-1 left/right Chongwe 4.1 71.6 1,813 1,812 4-2 left/right Zambezi 49.9 72.6 21,670 Subtotal 54.0 72.5 23,483 Luangwa 2,330 5 5-1 left/right Luangwa 518 102.3 159,615 Subtotal 518 102.3 159,615 Tete 2 2-1 right Manyame 26.5 20.6 40,497 2-2 right Luenya 180 99.4 57,004 Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa 2-3 left/right Zambezi 987 301.1 103,393 3,523 3 3-1 right Rumakali 12.5 954.4 414 Subtotal 1,193 187.3 200,894 3-2 left Songwe 35.2 273.4 4,060 3-3 left S. Rukuru+ 47.0 118.7 12,483 N. Rumphi 4,021 3-4 left/right Tributaries 528 207.5 80,259 3-5 left/right Lake Malawi/ –287 –314.4 28,760 Niassa/Nyasa evaporation 3-6 left/right Lake Malawi/ 336 84.1 125,976 Niassa/Nyasa Zambezi Delta outlet 1 1-1 left/right Zambezi 113 191.3 18,680 4,134 3-7 left/right Shire 162 220.4 23,183 Subtotal 113 191.3 18,680 Subtotal 498 105.3 149,159

INDIAN OCEAN

Note: Excludes the operational influence at the Kariba, Cahora Bassa, and Itezhi Tezhi dams.

6 The Zambezi River Basin: Background and Context

1.4 Population and The eight riparian countries of the Basin repre- Economy sent a wide range of economic conditions. Annual gross domestic product per capita ranges from $122 The population of the ZRB is approximately 30 in Zimbabwe to more than $7,000 in Botswana. million (table 1.2), more than 85 percent of whom Angola, Botswana, and Namibia have healthy cur- live in Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Zambia within four rent account surpluses, chiefly due to their oil and subbasins: Kafue, Kariba, Tete, and the Shire River diamond resources (table 1.3). and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. Of the total population, approximately 7.6 million (25 percent) live in 21 main urban centers (with 1.5 Approach and 50,000 or more inhabitants). The rest live in rural Methodology areas. The proportion of rural population varies from country to country, from over 50 percent in Water resources development is not an end in itself. Zambia to around 85 percent in Malawi. Rather, it is a means to an end: the sustainable use The ZRB is rich in natural resources. The main of water for productive purposes to enhance growth economic activities are fisheries, mining, agriculture, and reduce poverty. The analysis reported here was tourism, and manufacturing. Industries depend on undertaken from an economic perspective so as to the electricity produced in the hydropower plants better integrate the implications of the development (HPPs) of the Basin, as well as on other sources of of investment in water management infrastructure energy (primarily coal and oil). into the broad economic development and growth

Table 1.2. Population of the Zambezi River Basin (in thousands, 2005–06 data)

Subbasin Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Total % Kabompo (13) 4 — — — — — 279 — 283 0.9 Upper Zambezi (12) 200 — — — — — 71 — 271 0.9 Lungúe Bungo (11) 99 — — — — — 43 — 142 0.5 Luanginga (10) 66 — — — — — 56 — 122 0.4 Barotse (9) 7 — — — 66 — 679 — 752 2.5 Cuando/Chobe (8) 156 16 — — 46 — 70 — 288 1 Kafue (7) — — — — — — 3,852 — 3,852 12.9 Kariba (6) — — — — — — 406 4,481 4,887 16.3 Luangwa (5) — — 40 12 — — 1,765 — 1,817 6.1 Mupata (4) — — — — — — 113 111 224 0.7 Shire River – Lake Malawi/Niassa/ — — 10,059 614 — 1,240 13 — 11,926 39.8 Nyasa (3) Tete (2) — — 182 1,641 — — 221 3,011 5,055 16.9 Zambezi Delta (1) — — — 349 — — — — 349 1.2 Total 532 17 10,281 2,616 112 1,240 7,568 7,603 29,969 — % 1.8 0.1 34.3 8.7 0.4 4.1 25.3 25.4 — 100 Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007; SEDAC 2008.

7 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

the focus of this analysis is on major water-related Table 1.3. Macroeconomic data by country (2006) investments being considered by the riparian Population GDP GDP/cap Inflation countries in their national development plans. Country (million) (US$ million) (US$) rate (%) Development scenarios for other stakeholders can Angola 15.8 45.2 2,847 12.2 be superimposed on this analysis at a later time. Botswana 1.6 11.1 7,019 7.1 For the time being, however, water supply and sanitation, as well as environmental imperatives, Malawi 13.1 3.2 241 8.1 are considered as givens in nearly all scenarios con- Mozambique 20.0 6.8 338 7.9 sidered. In other words, hydropower and irrigation Namibia 2.0 6.9 3,389 6.7 development are superimposed over the continued Tanzania 38.2 14.2 372 7.0 provision of water for basic human needs and envi- Zambia 11.9 10.9 917 10.7 ronmental sustainability. This approach differs from Zimbabwe 11.7 1.4 122 >10,000 the conventional one of assuming basic water needs Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007; SEDAC 2008. and environmental sustainability as constraints on the optimized use of water. It should be noted that the scenarios for full basin-wide hydropower potential and full irriga- objectives of the riparian countries and the Basin as a tion development are primarily of analytical inter- whole. An international river system such as the ZRB est, rather than for practical application. They are is extremely complex. That complexity is reflected used here to help bracket the range and scope of in, but also compounded by, the large number of the analysis and to provide reference points. The initiatives being undertaken within the Basin and scenarios are based on identified projects in national by the large volume of data and information that and regional plans, and are dependent on enabling already exists. To analyze such a complex system, political and economic preconditions for their full simplifications and assumptions are unavoidable. implementation. The full potential for hydropower Those assumptions and their potential implications and irrigation in the Basin is not expected to be are acknowledged throughout the report. achieved in the time horizon of this analysis, which is based on the current national economic plans of 1.5.1 Analytical framework the riparian countries. The scenario analysis is carried out for the Operating within the framework of integrated water primary objective of determining and maximizing resources management, this analysis considers the economic benefits while meeting water supply and following water users as stakeholders: irrigated environmental sustainability requirements. Full co- agriculture, hydropower, municipal development, operation among the riparian countries is assumed. rural development, navigation, tourism and wildlife The scenarios are tested using a coupled hydro- conservation, and the environment. The analytical economic modeling system described in volume framework considered here is illustrated graphically 4. The purpose of the modeling effort is to provide in figure 1.3. The present context of the natural and insight into the range of gains that may be expected developed resource base, as well as cross-cutting from various infrastructure investments along the factors, of the ZRB (rows in the matrix) is assessed axes of full hydropower and irrigation development against the water-using stakeholders (columns (while continuing to satisfy requirements for water in the matrix) for a set of development scenarios. supply and environmental sustainability). Those development scenarios are focused on two Additionally, the analysis examines the effects key water-using stakeholders that require major of conjunctive or coordinated operation of existing investments in the region: hydropower and irrigated facilities, as well as potential gains from the strate- agriculture. gic development of new facilities. The analysis also While the need to consider the details of the in- addresses the potential impact of the development teraction among all stakeholders is acknowledged, scenarios on the environment (wetlands), tourism,

8 The Zambezi River Basin: Background and Context

Figure 1.3. Zambezi River Basin: scenario analysis matrix

Regional Assessment Analytical framework applied to the development and analysis of scenarios. The regional assessment explores the eight riparian countries, 13 subbasins and three zones of the Basin to dene scenarios based on optimized and collaborative water resource management

Zambezi River Basin Management and Development

Biophysical setting

Macroeconomic setting cross-cutting factors

Zambezi River Basin Sociological setting

Institutional setting Tourism Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry Environmental Sustainability Fisheries and Aquaculture Energy and Hydropower Potable Water and Sanitation Navigation Mining and Industry

Benecial uses of water resources

flood control, guaranteed minimum river flows in growth and on poverty reduction. With that in mind, the dry season, and other topics. the analysis considers the entire Basin as a single Specific attention is also given to the opera- natural resource base while examining potential tional and investment options for reducing flood sectoral investments. This approach is appropriate risks downstream of Cahora Bassa Dam and to the for initial indicative purposes and provides a com- possibility of partial restoration of natural floods to mon point of reference for all riparian countries. manage the impact on the Zambezi Delta of exist- The complexities inherent in national economics ing dams on the Zambezi River. In this analysis, the and transboundary political relationships are not impact of climate change on the hydrology of the directly addressed in this analysis. This is left to ZRB and on the investment options assessed are the riparian countries to address, informed by the addressed through a rudimentary incremental varia- results of this and other analyses. tion of key driving factors. Climate change is deemed a risk factor to developments and more detailed 1.5.2 The River/Reservoir System Model analysis is warranted for an in-depth understanding of impact. The ongoing efforts by the riparian The modeling package adopted for the analysis is countries and the development partners on assessing HEC-3, a river and reservoir system model devel- the impact of climate change on the Zambezi River oped by the Hydrologic Engineering Center of the Basin will provide guidance in due course. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The version of the Looming large in the analysis are the economics model used in this study, illustrated in figure 1.4, of different options, conceived in terms of the effect was modified by the consultants to improve some of potential investments on national and regional of its features. The same software package was

9 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 53 I.01.02 Zambezi Delta Licuari I.03.10 I.03.11 (Malawi) (Tanzania) Nacuadala Campo 28 Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa Lake Inow Net 43 25 52 I.01.01 I.03.03 I.03.02 I.03.04 I.03.01 Naturalised discharges of Lake discharges Naturalised Liwonde at Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa Tedzani Kapichira Nkula Falls Nkula Kholombizo Chikwawa 46 46 48 48 50 50 43 26 27 43

51 49 44 45 47

Lake Marsh Shire Elephant Malawi/ 19 Niassa/Nyasa Lupata 21 40 20 Humage 33 I.02.05 I.02.06 Mwandenga 42 39 (Zimbabwe) M.02.01 M.02.02 Moatize Moatize I.02.04 (Mozambique) Benga Coal Benga Coal 35 power stations power 42 39 Lower Fufu Lower

mines & thermal

Songwe III Songwe 35 Luenya Rumakali 32 Zambezi 38 17 41 Cais Tete - Tete Matundo 38

Songwe II Songwe I.03.08 (Tanzania) I.03.09 (Malawi) Mazowe

Mphanda Nkuwa Mphanda 31 Shawanoya Rumakali 18 I.03.07 31 37 34 31 37 22 Songwe I Songwe 24 Mutoko Mutoko Chiweta Road Brdge Road Land discharge 30 23 I.02.03 Phwezi I.03.12 36 (Tanzania) 16 outows

Cahora Bassa NorthRumphi I.03.05 I.03.06 29 (Malawi) (Tanzania) I.02.02 South Rukuru 29 29 29 Songwe Cahora Bassa Other Malawi/Niassa/ of Lake rivers catchment Nyasa I.05.03 I.05.04 (Zambia) (Mozambique) I.05.02

Chivero Great East Great Cahora Bassa reconstituted local inows

Road bridge Road Manyane

15 14

28 Luangwa

13 Luangwa 27 26

Luangwa Valley Luangwa 25 Chongwe 12 I.02.01 I.05.01 24 I.07.05 I.04.01 I.04.02 East

Road (Zambia) Great

bridge (Zimbabwe) Lunsemfwa Kafue

22 23 22 21 power Gokwé station M.06.02 thermal I.07.04

Lake / reservoir / pondage Lake reservoir series over evaporation Net point 26 control at located Streamow gauging station, gauging station, Streamow reservoir inow,hydropower + spill plant turbine ow River plain Flood Hydropower plant Hydropower point Existing control point control Future 15 Upper

Lower Gorge

M.06.01 15 Kafue 15 Kafue Gorge thermal station 15 26 34 15 34 20 Maamba Colliery & Kariba Kafue Flats Kabompo 20 15 15 20 W.06.02 I.07.03 Bulawayo

water supply water

20 08 Sanyati 15 14 I.06.11 I.06.12 19 (Zambia) 19 Flats Kafue water (Zimbabwe) supply Lusaka Copper QueenCopper W.07.01 19 I.06.10 09 Lower inows Catchment reconstituted

11 07 Gwayi 13 inows Kafue Flats 12 I.06.07 I.06.08

(Zambia)

Kamativi (Zimbabwe) Batoka Gorge Batoka I.06.09 18 11 I.07.02 11 11 17 Name of the abstraction line in the abstraction database 10 Final number to distinguish dierent abstraction distinguish dierent number to lines Final Subbasin M: mining & industry drinkable W: water, I: irrigation, I.06.05 I.06.06 (Zambia) Control point for irrigation abstraction irrigation point for Control Control point for mining & industrial abstraction point for Control Control point for water supply abstraction water point for Control 17 17 (Zimbabwe) Tezhi Itezhi

The following water abstraction points will be modeled with reservoirs in order to anticipate the regulation needs: 1.13, 1.12, 1.11, 1.10, the regulation anticipate to in order points will be modeled with reservoirs abstraction water following The 1.08.1, 1.05.1, 1.05.2, 1.07.1, 1.06.7, 1.06.8, 1.02.2, 1.02.3. used at present. already a degree to are irrigation points for control Future I.07.01 I.07.02 Falls Victoria LEGEND M.07.01 9 Copperbelt abstractions mines, water mines, & dewatering 10 inows

Itezhi Tezhi Itezhi 16 Kafue 06 Falls Victoria Kabompo I.13.01 1 8 I.07.01 W.06.01 Gaborone I.06.01 (Zambia) I.06.02 (Zimbabwe) I.06.03 (Namibia) I.06.04 (Botswana) water supply water 01

I.09.01

I.12.01 Watopa Pontoon

Zambezi Zambezi 5 2 04 02 Barotse Flood Plain Flood 03 7 3 Kalabo Mission Chavuma Katima Mulilo Pandamatenga Plains Pandamatenga 4 I.08.02 I.08.03 (Zambia) I.11.01 (Namibia) I.10.01 Chobe-Caprivi- Liambezi Lake Plain Flood Luanginga Delta Swamps - Swamps Okavango Okavango Lungúe Bungo Lungúe Selinda Spillway I.08.01

Cuando / Chobe Cuando

Kongola Cuando Okavango 6 05 Figure 1.4. Schematic of the river/reservoir system model for the Zambezi River Basin River the Zambezi model for system of the river/reservoir 1.4. Schematic Figure

10 The Zambezi River Basin: Background and Context adopted during the SADC 3.0.4 project that inves- Zambezi River downstream from the Kariba and Ca- tigated joint operation of the Kariba, Kafue Gorge hora Bassa dams, like the Zambezi Delta, has been per- Upper, and Cahora Bassa dams. The model is still manently altered by river-regulation infrastructure. being used by the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA). To take into account e-flows in the various The fact that water professionals in the ZRB were reaches of the Zambezi River, some assumptions familiar with the earlier version of the model partly had to be made related to the amount of water accounts for its selection. A detailed description of available at all times. The following e-flow criteria the model appears in volume 4 of this report. were used in the river/reservoir system model in In the present analysis, the modeling time step almost all the scenarios: the flow should never fall adopted is one month. All inputs, inflows, evapo- below historical low-flow levels in dry years of the ration, diversions or withdrawals, downstream record,1 where records are available. Moreover, the flow demands, and reservoir rule curves are on a average annual flow cannot fall below 60 percent monthly basis. The outputs of the model—reservoir of the natural average annual flow downstream storage and outflows, turbine flow, spill, and power from Kariba Dam. The minimum flow in the generation—are also on a monthly basis. The simu- Zambezi Delta in February was set at 7,000 m3/s lation period spans 40 years—from October 1962 to for at least four out of five dry years. September 2002—long enough to obtain a realistic The development scenarios, the state of the estimate of energy production. The main inflow basin, and the modeling, analysis, and input data series, from the Zambezi River at Victoria Falls, are described in detail in volumes 2, 3, and 4, re- shows that the flow sequence from 1962 to 1981 spectively. Together, they strengthen the analytical is above normal, while the sequence from 1982 to knowledge base available for making informed 2002 is below normal. The flow data available to the decisions about investment opportunities, financ- study team were insufficient to consider extending ing, and benefit sharing. Moreover, the analysis can the simulation period beyond 2002. Information on assist the Zambezi River Watercourse Commission groundwater (e.g., status of aquifers and abstraction awaiting ratification (ZAMCOM), SADC, and ripar- levels) was too insufficient to allow for sufficient ian countries by providing insight into options for conjunctive analysis. joint or cooperative development as well as associ- While the focus of this analysis is on hydro- ated benefit sharing. power and irrigation, the river/reservoir system model takes into account all sectors concerned 1.5.3 The Economic Assessment Tool with water management, notably tourism, fisheries, environment such as environmental flows (e-flows) The economic assessment approach used here in- and specific important wetlands, flood control, and corporates the inputs from the various projects for industry. Details of the guidelines and rule curves sector analysis to provide an overall analysis of the used in the model for reservoir operations, flood economic implications of development and invest- management, delta and wetlands management, ment scenarios. A schematic of the elements of the environmental flows, tourism flows, and fisheries development scenario is given in figure 1.5. The flows are given in volume 4 of this series. development scenarios were compared to assess the Maintaining e-flows throughout the system was relative viability of a given option. For hydropower a major consideration in this analysis. Reaches of the and irrigation, the basic elements of the analysis are Zambezi River upstream of the Kariba and Cahora the projects identified by the riparian countries. This Bassa dams are generally considered in near-pristine analysis is multi-sectoral by design; the major link condition. The tributaries rising in Zimbabwe are among the sectors (and associated projects) is the highly developed, with river-regulation infrastructure allocation or use of water. for irrigation. The Kafue River is also regulated and The economic analysis uses input from the sustains a large number of water-using sectors. The river/reservoir system model.

1 The statistical dry year considered here is the natural flow with a five-year return period.

11 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Figure 1.5. Schematic of the elements of the economic analysis tool

Scenario

Power sector Agriculture sector Other sectors Other major projects

Hydropower plants Irrigation schemes – Tourism – Chobe/Zambezi transfer – Fisheries – Maamba coal mine – Environment – Gokwé coal mine – Moatize Benga coal mine – Lusaka water supply

• Hydropower. The model uses the production • Scenario level – starting date, time horizon; figures from the hydropower installations • Sector – sector-specific parameters and prices, (described in detail in the section on the hydro- the specific irrigation models used in sector power in volume 3) and attributes these to the projects (e.g., crop budgets); and various hydropower projects. • Project – project time frames, project-specific • Irrigation. Based on the allocated water and costs and benefits. development scenarios, the appropriate models for the relevant irrigation projects are used at Details of the economic analysis assumptions specific abstraction points in the river/reservoir can be found in volume 4. system model, and the associated costs and The economic assessment tool provides, as benefits are calculated. output, a summary table, which includes: • Other sectors. Data on flows at Victoria Falls is used to assess their impact on tourism. Financial • Hydropower generation and agriculture output, and economic values of different flood manage- presented in the agricultural and irrigation ment options and their impact on the Zambezi calculations; Delta are calculated. The value of wetlands used • Cash flows based on project cash flows; in the analysis tool is derived from the analysis • Economic internal rate of return and net present of the environmental resources (details are pro- value (NPV) by development scenario, based on vided in volume 3). the appropriate time frame and project imple- • Other major projects. Water-transfer schemes as- mentation schedule; sociated with these major projects are included • Employment impact (jobs) calculated as the rain the scenario analysis. tio of jobs to gigawatt hours of installed capacity or jobs to hectares of a particular crop; and, The economic assessment is based on a number • A sensitivity analysis that was carried out for of assumptions regarding its parameters. It includes variations in investment costs, prices, and pro- the following: duction values.

12 The River/Reservoir 2 Operation Model

The Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) was modeled with a modified version of HEC-3, a software program for the analysis of reservoir systems developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The version of the HEC-3 model used in this study is basically the software package used in the SADC 3.0.4 project, which investigated the joint operation of the Kariba, Kafue, and Cahora Bassa dams (Shawinigan Engineering and Hidrotécnica Portuguesa 1990). This software is still used by the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) to assess the Upper Zambezi River Basin’s system of hydropower plants (HPPs). Other studies have adopted HEC-5, which remains available as legacy software on the HEC website. The two software packages are compatible and apply the same optimization algorithms to simulations carried out within a given time frame, typically one month. Both HEC-3 and HEC-5 are MS-DOS applications. More recently, the HEC has developed the Microsoft Windows-based ResSim reservoir simulation package. Whereas HEC-3 is essentially a planning tool, and HEC-5 can be used as both a planning and an operation tool, ResSim is designed primarily as an operating tool. While HEC-3 was deemed adequate for this preliminary analysis, HEC-5 and ResSim should be considered in future analyses.

2.1 System Characterization

The schematic diagram of the Zambezi River Basin, as represented in the river/reservoir model, is illustrated in figure 1.4. The model contains a total of 53 computational nodes referred to as control points; three carryover reservoirs (Kariba, Cahora Bassa, and Itezhi Tezhi) that are operated between full supply level and minimum operating level during critical dry sequences; and two major natural water bodies (Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa and the Kafue Flats). Smaller reservoirs and ponds are assumed to operate between full supply level and minimum operating level—daily, weekly, or monthly. The model also includes existing HPPs, expansion plans, and future HPPs, as described in recently completed regional power generation planning studies (Econ Pöyry 2008 and NEXANT 2007). Evaporation is estimated for all reservoirs and ponds. Other control points consist

13 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis of diversions for consumption (such as water sup- 2.2.2 Local flows at control points ply and sanitation demands, irrigation demands, and water transfer) or to meet environmental flow Local flows at the 53 control points, where time targets (e-flows). series were not available, are calculated as a ratio The modeling time step adopted in this analy- of the flows of the nearest gauged station. Cumula- sis is one month. All inputs, inflows, evaporation, tive local flows are equal to the difference between diversions or water withdrawals, downstream the inflows at a given control point and the inflows flow demands, and reservoir rule curves are from all reservoirs immediately above that control monthly. Consequently, the output—including point, such that if the above-reservoir releases were reservoir storage and outflows, turbine flow, spill, added to the cumulative local flow, the resulting and power generation—is on a monthly basis. flow would be the regulated flow. Smaller computation time steps—those that can be modeled with HEC-5 or ResSim—have not 2.2.3 Evaporation been considered owing to the fact that most daily inflow series are incomplete over the simulation Reservoir evaporation is an important part of the period and could not be completed by rainfall- system’s water balance computation. It becomes run-off modeling within the project time frame an input to the model through the specification and budget. of a net evaporation rate (the difference between The simulation period considered is from Octo- evaporation and rainfall) for each reservoir. This ber 1962 to September 2002—adequate to obtain a rate may be made the same for all reservoirs and all reasonable estimate of energy production. The main years, varied by time period, or varied by reservoir. inflow series, from Zambezi River at Victoria Falls, For the Batoka, Kariba, Itezhi Tezhi, Kafue Flats, shows that the flow sequence from 1962 to 1981 was Kafue Gorge, Cahora Bassa, and Mphanda Nkuwa above normal, while the sequence from 1982 to 2002 reservoirs, monthly series of net evaporation were was below normal. Flow data were insufficient to calculated with data from the global grid database permit extending the simulation period from 2002 developed from station data provided by the Cli- to the present time. mate Research Unit (CRU) at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom. The size of the grid con- 2.2 Hydrology in the Model sidered is one-half of one degree of longitude and latitude. The monthly values represent the average 2.2.1 Inflows value for the grid cell. In addition to precipitation, the database also contains grid estimates of maxi- System inflows are the model’s primary hydrologic mum and minimum temperatures, cloud cover, components. As shown in the schematic diagram, and vapor pressure, all variables that are inputs there are 28 inflow points, of which 24 are monthly for the calculation of open-water evaporation in flow series at hydrometric gauging stations during reservoirs (or reference evapotranspiration [ETo] the period from October 1962 to September 2002. required as input to several precipitation run-off Stations 9 and 15 represent the reconstituted inflows models) or for the determination of irrigation re- into the Kariba and Cahora Bassa reservoirs and quirements. The database CRU TS 2.1 is open to the take into account potential evaporation as described public at the CRU Web site (www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ below. Station 25 represents the reconstituted natu- cru/data/hrg.htm). The methodology is explained ral net inflows into Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa in Mitchell and Jones (2005). Precipitation estimates computed from natural monthly outflows and stor- are generally in accordance with climatological age variations and do not account for net evapora- station data. For smaller reservoirs, a system net tion. Station 10 represents Itezhi Tezhi flows, which evaporation developed during the SADC AAA.3.4 are the inflows reconstituted from outflows and study was adopted that varies from month to changes in reservoir levels. month but is constant throughout the simulation

14 The River/Reservoir Operation Model period (Shawinigan Engineering and Hidrotécnica is present at the outlet of the reservoir, the outlet Portuguesa 1990). capacity includes turbine flow capacity. Operation of a reservoir can be described in 2.2.4 Hydrologic balance equation terms of its rule curve, which provides a reservoir level or outflow that must be followed. A reservoir Computations in the model are based on the prin- can be divided into operation zones or pools linked ciple of continuity as expressed by the equation: to the rule curve. Each pool is described by its top level, which may vary over the year.

Si = Si–1 + Ii – Qi – Ei To simulate the operation of a reservoir system, the operating rules must be expressed in quantita- Si = reservoir storage volume at the end of the current period i. tive or mathematical terms. The primary mechanism for doing this is by dividing the reservoir into Si–1 = reservoir storage volume at the end of the previous period i–1. imaginary horizontal levels. Corresponding to each level is a reservoir elevation, storage, surface area, Ii = inflow volume during period i. and outlet capacity. Differences among levels are Q = release volume during period i. i zones of potential storage volume. The lowest level E = net evaporation volume during period i. i corresponds to the bottom of the conservation pool (top of inactive pool), the second-lowest level is the This basic equation is appropriate for account- top of the buffer zone, the highest level is the full ing storage where the period considered is long pool level (top of flood control), and the second- compared with the travel time through the reservoir. highest level is the top of conservation (bottom of It should be noted that proper definition of inflow flood control). Additional levels can be established volume (I) implies here that all diversions into the to facilitate individual reservoir operating criteria; reservoir and releases from upstream reservoirs however, this feature has not been used in the pres- must be added to the natural inflow to obtain the ent analysis. In particular, these additional levels inflow volume. Release volume (Q) implies that all would be instrumental in a more balanced operation diversions out of the reservoir, leakages from the of Kariba, Itezhi Tezhi, and Cahora Bassa reservoirs reservoir, and releases for different purposes are when they are operated conjunctively. added together to obtain the total release volume. Each reservoir is operated to meet stream flow Net evaporation volume (E) reflects the gain or requirements or energy demand at specified locations loss in reservoir storage volume that would occur in the system. Priority withdrawals from reservoirs because of net evaporation (evaporation minus include water supply and e-flows where available precipitation) over the impoundment area during and appropriate, and can be established by specifying the period. additional levels. Water is taken first from the highest storage zone, then from the second highest, and so on, down to the lowest, keeping all reservoirs in the 2.3 Operating Guidelines system in balance to the extent possible. and Rule Curves Other operating criteria specified in the model are the initial reservoir storage and spillway sur- 2.3.1 Reservoirs charge. An initial storage must be specified to begin the simulation. This may be an actual or assumed The reservoir characteristics describe important value. During flood operations, inflow causing a physical features of each reservoir and are neces- reservoir to rise above its flood control level must be sary for modeling storage and release features. For either spilled or stored in surcharge storage. Water a particular reservoir, each reservoir elevation is spilled may be released into the stream below the associated with a specific storage capacity, surface reservoir or into a diversion, if one exists. The other area, and outlet capacity. The outlet capacity may be alternative is to specify that the excess will be stored the spillway capacity, but in the case where an HPP in surcharge storage.

15 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

In the Zambezi River Basin model, all reservoir Lupata Gorge, where the channel geometry of the characteristics were considered to the maximum ex- Zambezi River changes from a confined channel to tent possible based on available data from previous a floodplain. Since Cahora Bassa’s existing spillway studies. In addition, a distinction was made between capacity is insufficient to pass large flood inflows storage and pondage. A storage reservoir is one that during the wet season, the reservoir is drawn down can be operated annually (such as Itezhi Tezhi, and prior to the flood season in order to provide a buf- the projected three Songwe and Rumakali reservoirs) fer. The result is that flood peaks are shaved, and or as carryover reservoirs for several years (such peak outflow is less than peak inflow. As such, this as Lake Kariba and Lake Cahora Bassa). All other mode of operation assists in reducing flood peaks power reservoirs are considered pondage, as they downstream in the floodplain. However, tributaries, can be operated only over relatively short periods either together or individually, contribute to down- and are considered dummies in the model. Their stream flooding. It was assessed, for example, that only function is to allow for evaporation. However, flooding during the 2007 season originated from the reservoirs declared in the model to satisfy irrigation Revubue River. At other times, flooding is caused needs are refilled during the wet season and drawn by backwater from the gorge occurring when floods down during the irrigation season as required. originate from the Luia. The case of Kafue Flats is special and was Flooding downstream from Lupata Gorge starts modeled as a natural reservoir. Regulating the when flows are on the order of 10,000 to 12,000 3m Itezhi Tezhi reservoir to meet the demand from the per second, and severe flooding occurs when they downstream existing Kafue Gorge Upper and pro- reach 14,000 to 15,000 m3 per second. A typical jected Kafue Gorge Lower HPPs is less than perfect flood may last up to two months. Peak flood figures because, owing to a slight bed slope, releases from are approximate, as ratings curves at hydrometric the reservoir are delayed about two months into stations located downstream from Cahora Bassa, the Kafue Gorge head pond. The delay observed Tete, Tete-Matundo Cais, and Lupata are not well between when any reservoir operation action is car- defined at high discharges and have not necessarily ried out at Itezhi Tezhi and the time this action is felt been validated in recent years. Settling in the lower at the Kafue Gorge Upper and Kafue Gorge Lower floodplain of the Zambezi River is illegal, but people HPPs can be simulated by modeling the Kafue Flats still encroach on this territory for their livelihood. as a natural reservoir with specific storage and outlet Water management of Cahora Bassa Dam is gov- characteristics. These characteristics are adjusted erned by a safety rule curve that was developed and until the required time lag between outflows at adopted by Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB) Itezhi Tezhi and those experienced at Kafue Gorge and by Direcção Nacional de Águas (the National is obtained. The results of the SADC AAA.3.4 study Directorate for Water, DNA) in Mozambique in 1998. were adopted in the present analysis (Shawinigan This rule curve represents the maximum permissible Engineering and Hidrotécnica Portuguesa 1990). month-end level that cannot be exceeded for safety reasons and provides the necessary storage volume 2.3.2 Flood management for inflow routing during the rainy season at the end of the hydrologic year (September). This rule curve Between Cahora Bassa and Lupata Gorge in has worked well since it was introduced, although Mozambique, there are a number of significant in an extremely wet year, with flows higher than the tributaries. The most important of which are, on the one in 500 year return period, the available storage left-bank: the Revubue River which joins the main volume must be increased by lowering the reservoir stem of the Zambezi River downstream of the city in advance proportionally to the forecasted inflow. of Tete, the Mavuzi River, and the Luia River near In order not to adversely affect power production, Lupata Gorge; and on the right-bank: the Mazowe/ the reservoir is lowered below the rule curve only Luenha River which originates in Zimbabwe. when rainfall tendencies in the upstream basin and Flooding regularly occurs some 80 km down- published forecasts point to excessive run-off in the stream from the city of Tete and downstream from months of January, February, or March.

16 The River/Reservoir Operation Model

While the rule curve represents an upper reser- the Delta region, it divides into a complex network voir limit, water levels are adjusted in accordance of distributaries, as shown in figure 2.1. with inflow forecasts. In this respect, HCB has de- Some 30 km from the coast, the Zambezi River veloped an annual forecasting procedure based on divides in two, with the Chinde River to the north three to six month precipitation forecasts from the and the main stem of the Zambezi River to the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum, south. The Chinde River meanders eastward to Climate Prediction Center, and the European Center form a navigable channel that leads to a shallow for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Scenarios are harbor at the coastal port of Chinde. Near the considered from these forecasts; each consists of a coast, the Chinde River captures run-off from the combination of inflows with given return periods. Maria River, a small channel that breaks from the A month-by-month annual forecast from October to main stem of the Zambezi River just north of the the following September is prepared that includes Chinde River divide, and collects run-off from the inflows, turbine outflows based on the power de- northern floodplains. The main Zambezi River mand forecast, and month-end reservoir levels. As divides one last time about 15 km from the sea, the season progresses, the forecast of inflows into where it opens up into two large coastal outlets, the the Cahora Bassa reservoir is refined by analyzing Zambezi River mouth (Boca do Zambeze) and the monthly, two-week, and weekly precipitation fore- smaller Catarina River. The Lower Zambezi River casts as well as by carrying out a daily water-balance channels near the coast have gently sloping banks, analysis. This method is of the predictor-corrector and much of the region is therefore inundated as type and, owing to the large reservoir volume, floodwaters rise. leaves room for correction in the following week Flooding patterns near the Delta coast are also should the forecast overshoot or undershoot during influenced by oceanic tides (Hidrotécnica Portu- the current week. guesa 1965). The Delta region has the highest tidal Forecasts are discussed with the regional wa- variation in Mozambique and one of the highest ter administrations (ARAs) and national water along the East African coast. At spring tide, the agencies of Mozambique, and HCB provides early maximum tidal amplitude is 4.1 meters at Chinde warning of any planned spill and attempts to spill and 4.7 meters at Quelimane. During the rainy sea- as uniformly as possible. However, forecast would son, high tides spread floodwaters over the coastal improve greatly if there was enhanced access to plains. During the dry season, tidal influence is regular, sufficient and up to date information from evident for 80 km upstream. upstream operators. To this end, a meeting of the Over the past century, flooding patterns in the Joint Operation Technical Committee—which Zambezi Delta have been affected by the operation comprises, among other members, HCB, the Zam- of the Kariba and especially the Cahora Bassa dams; bia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO), and the construction of embankments along the main the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA)—took place stem of the Zambezi River, the upper Delta flood- in January 2010 to start the process of signing a plains, and coastal plains; and the dispersal of the memorandum of understanding between the gov- main Zambezi River into other distributaries. The ernments of Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe flows of the Zambezi River now rarely exceed the that stipulates the routine exchange of information minimum threshold of 4,500 m3 per second for dis- between hydropower operators in the Zambezi charging into the upper Delta waterways. Overbank River Basin and coordinated spill operations during flooding is mostly limited to the brackish coastal the flood season. region under tidal influence.

2.3.3 The Zambezi Delta 2.3.4 Environmental flows (minimum flow and restoration of natural flooding) Inundation of the entire Delta occurs when the Zambezi River overtops its banks and spreads lat- Ecological and environmental water requirements erally over the Delta. As the Zambezi River enters depend on many complex factors and go well

17 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

ZAMBEZI RIVER DELTA Vol 4 Figure 2.1 Figure 2.1. The Zambezi Delta

IBRD 37981 August 2010 Quelimane

Mopeia

Zambezi

Marromeu

Luabo

Zambezi

R. Chinde

M o z a m b i q u e

C h a n n e l

FLOOD PROTECTION MAIN ROADS MAIN RAILROADS RIVERS AND CREEKS ELEVATIONS:

MORE THAN 60m. 40 – 60m. ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN 19 – 40m. Area of map 13 – 19m. 7 – 13m. 0 – 7m.

0 10 20 30 40 50

KILOMETERS

Source: Beilfuss and Brown 2006.

18 The River/Reservoir Operation Model beyond “minimum flow” requirements. One of These two conditions were expressed as follows the key drivers of the health and operation of an in the river/reservoir system model. aquatic system is the frequency and duration of floodplain inundation. Quantifying these processes • When the flow drops below the 10-year low requires detailed surveys at representative river flow (month Q10 low-flow discharge), abstrac- cross-sections as well as reliable models of daily tions are reduced to maintain the flow require- flow in the system, of which neither is available ment. If the 10-year low flow is not maintained for the Zambezi River Basin. Estimating e-flow even without abstractions, then its value in the requirements is also not a task that can be done in model is null (this may occur on the Zimba- isolation of other water using sectors. For a riverine bwean tributaries, in particular). If this hap- ecology to continue to function in a pristine or other pens, the five-year low flow is selected (month agreed state, a set of operating guidelines and rules Q5 low-flow discharge). If in turn, this flow is must be developed so that e-flows are taken into also null (in rare instances), no minimum flow account when determining water allocation and is considered. the sustainability of the system. The key challenge • The maximum regulation volume upstream is to quantify trade-offs so as to balance develop- of any abstraction point cannot be higher ment and poverty reduction, as well as sustainable than 40 percent of the mean annual run-off ecosystems. of the five-year dry year (year Q5 low-flow Under ideal conditions, given sufficient time discharge). Consequently, at least 60 percent and money, studies would be conducted to as- of the flood should be preserved during four sess the ecological and environmental impact of years out of five. increasing levels of water-resources development. It would then be up to the stakeholders to decide For each abstraction point not regulated by the on the desired ecological state of the river and how Kariba or Cahora Bassa dams, the monthly flows to achieve that state given the need for economic entered in the model for Scenario 0 (monthly flows growth and development. Since comprehensive observed from 1962 to 2002) are the flows to be studies at basin-level were not possible to complete considered for calculations of the following values: within the MSIOA project, available research by river ecologists was used as a starting point. The • The base low flows of the 10-year return dry analysis should be refined as detailed studies are year; conducted and more information becomes available. • The base low flows of the 5-year return dry year; The Zambezi River upstream of the Kariba and • The base mean annual run-off of the 5-year Cahora Bassa dams is in near-pristine condition. Ex- return dry year. These flows have already been ceptions include the tributaries within Zimbabwe, modified by existing developments, but they which are overdeveloped for irrigation, and the are the closest to natural conditions. Kafue River, which is comparatively regulated and there are concerns regarding pollution from mining For each abstraction point downstream from and industrial activities. the Kariba Dam, the flows to be considered are the Downstream from the Kariba and Cahora Bassa unregulated flows. The monthly unregulated flows dams, and in the Delta, the river is permanently were obtained by deregulating the reservoirs and altered. To maintain the Upper ZRB in its present accounting for reservoir evaporation as described environmental state, the flow should never drop in section 2.2.3. below the current low-flow levels in dry years, as There are two exceptions to the above-defined estimated from statistical analysis, and the average methodology on environmental flows. annual flow should not drop below 60 percent of the natural average annual flow. This condition is, • For the stretch of the Kafue River downstream in fact, a minimum flood constraint, as most of the from the Itezhi Tezhi Dam (the Kafue Flats), the annual run-off is produced during floods. water right held by ZESCO for the abstraction of

19 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

water from the Itezhi Tezhi reservoir is subject flows are lower than 250 m3 per second at Victoria to the following specified release conditions: Falls. In each scenario developed in the MSIOA • The holder shall store and release a mini- (volume 2), the percentage of years when flows mum of 300 m3 per second over a period of were less than 250 m3 per second was recorded. It four weeks in each year from the Itezhi Tezhi is also assumed that income from tourism will fall reservoir to preserve the ecological balance accordingly as per table 2.1. of the Kafue Flats. • The holder shall store and release sufficient 2.3.6 Flows to support fisheries water to ensure that a minimum of 15 m3 per second is available for other users between The assessment of the correlation between reser- the Itezhi Tezhi Dam and Kafue Gorge Dam voirs/ponds and fisheries is calculated using the at all times. assumption that fish productivity is proportional • The holder shall ensure that a minimum to the area of the reservoir/pond. Minimum and flow of 25 m3 per second in the river be- maximum levels of productivity were considered tween the Itezhi Tezhi Dam and Kafue for each of the main reservoirs/ponds, and the Gorge Dam is maintained at all times. calculated average productivity was applied. From • Downstream from the Cahora Bassa Dam, the the river/reservoir system model, the calculation is model prescribes restoration of natural flooding done for each year of the historical series (table 2.2.). (also referred to as artificial flooding) of 7,000 m3 per second in the Lower Delta in February 2.3.7 Other control point characteristics of each year. Control points regulate system operation by estab- 2.3.5 Flows to support tourism lishing constraints and targets on stream flow. Both reservoirs and selected locations along the stream As described in the matrix analysis (volume 3), a network are assigned control point numbers. Three flow of at least 250 m3 per second is needed up- types of control measure may be specified for any stream of Victoria Falls to sustain tourism associated stream control point: maximum permissible flow, with water-related attractions. From August to Sep- minimum desired flow, and minimum required tember, less than five percent of historical monthly flow. Maximum permissible flow places an upper

Table 2.1. Main hypothesis used for assessment of impact on tourism

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Turnover from tourism (%) 7.8 7.8 8.5 8 7.8 7.8 8.5 8 9.5 9.5 9 7.8 Turnover from tourism (US$ million) 2.96 2.96 3.23 3.04 2.96 2.96 3.23 3.04 3.61 3.61 3.42 2.96 38 Reduction in turnover if flow is more 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 20 20 5 than 250 m3/s (%) Reduction in turnover if flow is 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 40 40 40 25 between 150–200 m3/s (%) Reduction in turnover if flow is 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 60 60 60 45 between 100–150 m3/s (%) Reduction in turnover if flow is 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 80 80 80 65 between 50–100 m3/s (%) Reduction in turnover if flow is 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 between 0–50 m3/s (%) Note: Shaded months indicate high season for tourism.

20 The River/Reservoir Operation Model

Table 2.2. Assumptions for fish productivity (kg/ha) Minimum productivity Maximum Average productivity Subbasin Country Reservoir (kg/ha) productivity (kg/ha) (kg/ha) Kariba (6) Zambia Kariba (existing) 75 100 87.5 Kariba (6) Zimbabwe Kariba (existing) 75 100 87.5 Kariba (6) Zambia Batoka (planned) 50 75 62.5 Kariba (6) Zimbabwe Batoka (planned) 50 75 62.5 Kafue (7) Zambia Itezhi Tezhi (existing) 75 100 87.5 Tete (2) Mozambique Mphanda Nkuwa (planned) 75 100 87.5 Tete (2) Mozambique Cahora Bassa (existing) 50 75 62.5

limit on the desired magnitude of the stream flow at index of the relative state of each reservoir (usu- the selected control point. This limit is maintained ally a function of reservoir storage) is determined until upstream flood-control storage is exceeded, at according to the specified operation rules. Once which point excess water must be spilled. Minimum requirements have been met at all control points desired flow is a target flow, which is sought while (or shortages established if upstream water is not reservoirs are operating in the conservation pool available), system requirements are examined to above the top of the buffer zone. When the reser- determine whether additional water releases or voir levels go into the buffer zone, the minimum power generation will be needed to meet the sys- required flow becomes the target. Each flow require- tem’s power demands. If so, the additional needs ment may be constant or may vary for each period. are proportioned among available projects in ac- These control measures are specified to ensure cordance with the relative state of the projects as flood protection in the Zambezi River floodplain evidenced by the indices previously computed. The downstream of Lupata Gorge, to partially restore additional releases are subsequently added to the natural flooding in the Lower Delta, and to specify releases previously computed for the purpose of e-flow requirements at various control points in the meeting site-specific requirements, and the system river/reservoir system model. Each control point and site-specific requirements are thus met (or, if is assigned a number. The reservoirs in the system water is not available, system and on-site shortages that will meet the target flows of that control point are declared). This process is repeated for each pe- are identified. riod (month) of the study. The ending state of the system for the current period becomes the initial condition for the next period. 2.4 Operation of the River/ Results from the successive applications of Reservoir System Model these calculations on a period-by-period basis are recorded for all points in the system (including In the first step, the river/reservoir system model non-reservoir points) by an accounting procedure operates by considering the water and power that measures the movement of the water through requirements in sequence at each relevant control the system by using the specified relative location point in the system, beginning at an upstream of the reservoirs and downstream control points. point and moving downstream through each river By adding releases to local stream flow to obtain basin. The release required to meet requirements the total stream flow and by adding inflows to and at each control point is determined by evaluating subtracting releases from storage volumes, the state operational requirements and all physical and of any component and the flow at any point in the operational constraints at each site. In addition, an system can be calculated.

21 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Where many HPPs are included in one sys- ment is not met, water levels at those reservoirs tem, it is often desirable to specify requirements where additional generation is possible are then for the system as whole rather than specific re- drawn toward a common storage-balancing level. quirements for each plant in conjunctive opera- The allocated system requirements are then used tion. During the first run (search) of the system, in making a second run of the entire system for the minimum power requirement at each plant all purposes. Since satisfying these additional re- is established, if one has been requested, and the quirements will usually change releases at many total generation during the period at each plant reservoirs, the average head during the second is computed. This total can exceed the minimum run will be different from the average obtained required generation if other services call for ad- from the first run and used in the second run. Ac- ditional releases from the particular reservoir. At cordingly, accurate system power (and evapora- the end of the first run, a summary is prepared of tion) computations require a third complete run, the total power generated, required, and usable to or search, of the entire water resource system for satisfy system requirements. If the system require- each operation period.

22 3 Modeling Hydropower

The river/reservoir system model is capable of simulating hydropower generation in association with a reservoir or pond. For run-of- the-river HPPs in the Zambezi River Basin, the reservoir designation will be null, and inflow is directly routed through the plant. One of the limitations of this model is that it can accept only one HPP at the outlet of a reservoir. Consequently, generation from HPPs shared by countries (i.e., existing Kariba North and South, and projected Songwe I, II and III, and Batoka North and South) cannot be disaggregated by unit or by country. In the economic analysis, energy output computed by the model is considered shared equally between the owner countries at the outlet of their common reservoir. Future and more detailed modeling analyses should be able to simulate generation by plant unit to overcome this limitation. Hydropower plant characteristics that are used in the river/ reservoir system model to simulate power operations include:

• Installed nameplate capacity (MW); • Maximum plant factor for generation, generally 1.0; • HPP efficiency; • Tailwater elevation plus hydraulic losses; • Overload ratio for the power installation; and • Power load requirements for each plant for each time period (firm energy).

In addition, several functional relationships are sometimes necessary for reservoir operation and power production, including:

• Power releases versus power tailwater elevation; and • Maximum peaking capability versus reservoir storage for the Kariba and Cahora Bassa HPPs.

Energy calculations in the model are based on the equation:

Ei = K x Qi x hi x ei x t

Ei = energy in kilowatt hours generated during period i. K = 9.817 m/s2 (for metric units). 3 Qi = average flow (m per second) through the generating units during period i.

23 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

hi = average effective head (meters) on tio of firm energy to plant capacity is the plant factor. the turbine during period i. Unless an HPP is under-designed with respect to

ei = efficiency of the generating units available inflow, an unlikely outcome, the plant fac- during period i. tor is less than one. The fact that firm energy can be t = duration of period i in hours. generated continuously does not imply that it must be generated at this uniform level. In fact, an HPP Energy capability of an HPP is based on firm en- can respond to various zones or bands of electrical ergy and average energy. As the inflow into an HPP load or power demand. The load varies daily and complex varies in time, so does energy production. seasonally, and it displays an upward trend in time. Firm energy is considered energy that is available The load consists basically of three zones, the base of at all times with a predefined level of confidence. If which requires power at all times, an intermediate the HPP is a run-of-the river plant, then the lowest zone known as the mid-merit zone, and finally the inflow corresponding to that level of confidence peak, which typically occurs two to three hours a will determine the value of firm energy. If the HPP day. If an HPP consists of several generating units, includes a carryover reservoir (a reservoir with some can be allocated to the base, others to the mid- sufficient volume to be operated yearly, such as zone, and the balance to the peak. Resulting energy Itezhi Tezhi, or inter-annually, such as Kariba and production will be equivalent to firm energy, but Cahora Bassa), then firm energy can be maximized the energy can be modulated within a day, week, and represents the uniform energy that can be gen- or month as required by the system. erated during the critical dry period, operating the Average energy is the energy produced over reservoir from full supply level at the beginning of the duration of the inflow sequence, which in the period to minimum operating level at the end addition to the critical dry period includes other of the period. periods during which an HPP can generate above Firm energy then represents the energy equiva- the firm energy requirement (up to plant capacity) lent of reservoir yield. In the present study, a con- under flood conditions, when the reservoir has fidence level of 99 percent firm energy availability reached or exceeded its full supply level within the was adopted, implying failure of three to four days flood-control pool. The difference between average per year in the long-term. But it should be noted energy and firm energy is secondary energy, which that failures do not occur at random in the case of is valuable if the power system consists of a mix of an HPP associated with a carryover reservoir; they hydropower and thermal generation, or if the excess are lumped together at the end of the dry inflow can be exported to neighboring utilities through sequence and can last several months, as was the interties, as this energy will displace thermal with case during the 1990s with Lake Kariba. A confi- a corresponding savings in fuel cost. Unless the dence level of 95 percent has also been considered system is an isolated, pure hydropower system, in the present analysis, but the period over which average energy is the one considered during the failures occur in the two inter-annual carryover costing phase of generation planning studies, since reservoirs at the end of the dry sequence is too large the excess over firm energy may displace fuel. In an to be contemplated for generation planning studies. isolated hydropower system, secondary, or “dump,” Firm energy is generally the value that is considered energy represents that amount of energy that can be during the scheduling phase of generation planning produced by hydropower under high flows but that studies, when units are added to meet growing load exceeds the load or energy demand. It is therefore demand, as it represents dependable energy. not generated; instead, water is spilled—unless a For medium to large hydropower plants and power utility is willing to purchase this excess, as for power systems, energy is usually expressed its price is low. in gigawatt hours (GWh), but since firm energy The Zambezi River Basin’s system of hydro- is continuously available it is often presented in power is a multi-HPP, multi-reservoir system. In megawatts (MW) in reservoir operation studies for such a system, by proper operation that takes into hydropower. With this unit of measurement, the ra- account compensating inflows in the various parts

24 Modeling Hydropower of the Basin as well as reservoir storage, it is possible necessarily the aggregate or sum of individual HPP to optimize the firm energy that will result from the firm energies but can be more or less as critical low stand-alone operation of all the system’s compo- flows for run-of-the-river HPPs or flow sequences for nents. In this respect, it should be noted that under reservoirs may not occur concurrently throughout stand-alone operation of the HPPs (or independent the Basin. Conversely, the system’s average energy operation of subsystems), system firm energy is not is the aggregate of individual HPP average energy.

4 Modeling Irrigation

Irrigation presently uses about 2.5 percent of the mean annual natural run-off of the Zambezi River Basin. However, the Zambezi riparian countries have major plans to continue to develop their respective irrigation sectors. In the short-term, the development of identified irrigation projects (IPs) could raise the use of run-off to seven percent. In the long-term, given existing development plans for a high-level of irrigation (HLI), abstractions could increase to 25 percent of the mean annual natural run-off in the Basin.

4.1 Irrigation Reservoirs

Any future irrigation scheme may include a regulation reservoir if required. For instance, the Mwomboshi irrigation scheme in the Luangwa subbasin is considering building a 55 million m3 reservoir. The water requirements for the future Mwomboshi irrigation scheme will be regulated by this future reservoir, so that abstractions from the Mwomboshi River will be more regularly spread throughout the year. Indeed, the 55 million m3 of the reservoir could largely irrigate the 3,000 hectares irrigated each year in the Mwomboshi irrigation scheme.

4.1.1 Reservoirs for irrigation use in the river/reservoir system model

For a given abstraction point in the model, and for each irrigation development plan that requires regulation, a theoretical reservoir with a maximum volume equal to the annual regulation requirement is estimated at the abstraction point. The surface of the reservoir (needed for the computation of evaporation losses) is calculated as follows:

S = (Vr/Vm) x f (V/Vr) with S = reservoir surface area V = reservoir volume Vr = total regulation need Vm = maximum volume of a typical small reservoir

27 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

f = function linking the surface of the typical Using the same principle as above, the height small reservoir to its volume: S = f (V/Vm). of the reservoir can also be calculated, and is equal to (with V in m3 and h in meters): This formula was designed to take into account the fact that the theoretical large reservoir represents h = [V/(8 x Vr)]1/3 numerous small reservoirs and behaves the same as a typical small one. The function f calculates the According to the above, it is therefore possible surface area of the reservoir from the volume. The to enter a reservoir elevation-area-volume (h-S-V) reservoir has a semi-pyramidal shape with the semi- relationship into the river/reservoir system model angle at the center equal to the slope of the river of for each regulation need. 0.01 (rad), as illustrated in figure 4.1. The regulation volume of the reservoir selected The angle between the two sides of the valley for an abstraction point corresponds to the flow is assumed to be approximately A=2.98 radians needed to satisfy irrigation abstraction needs in at which is very large, so that tan(A/2)=12 and h varies least four years out of five. Moreover, some identi- between null meters (when the reservoir is empty) fied projects have been designed with regulation and 50 meters. A reservoir of 50 million m3 would means (such as the Mwomboshi irrigation scheme, then cover an area of about three km². for instance). In these cases, the designed regulation volume is considered, even if it is not required S = 1,200 x h (where S is in m² and h in meters). to satisfy the four-years-out-of-five condition. The V = ∫S(h)dh = 400 x h3. regulated volume is limited by e-flow requirements, which take precedence. The function f can also be written f (V) = S = 3 (V/Vm)2/3 with S in km² and Vm = 50 million m3. Therefore, the functions that are used in this study 4.2 Modeling Irrigation for modeling the reservoirs with a regulation need Schemes (Vr) for the development of new irrigation schemes will be approximately (S in km² and V in million m3): Eleven typical irrigation schemes were identified and modeled to characterize irrigation development S = (Vr/50) x 3 x (V/Vr)2/3 options in the Zambezi River Basin (table 4.1).

Figure 4.1. Irrigation storage reservoir model

)) 0.01 rd

h A

28 Modeling Irrigation

Table 4.1. Main characteristics of the typical modeled irrigation schemes

Total annual Equipped Type of Intensity irrigated Name Model Location Characteristics area (ha) irrigation (%) (ha) Zambezi Integrated Zambezi Botswana Smallholders with winter 15,000 Gravity 140 21,000 Agro-Commercial Integrated wheat, summer sorghum, and Development Agro-Commercial vegetables Development Commercial farming and Commercial Zambia Commercial farmers and 3,340 Center pivot for 142 4,740 Smallholders—mixed Development smallholders with mixed large-scale and cropping Agriculture winter and summer cropping mixed system Project (with dam) for small-scale Commercial farming— CDAP modified Zambia Commercial farmers with 3,340 Center pivot 146 4,890 cereal mixed summer cropping Smallholders—sugar, Nega-Nega Zambia Smallholders (Manyono) 1,050 Center pivot/ 100 1,050 pivot irrigation modified flood Smallholders—mixed Principe Zimbabwe Smallholders: 1 ha/farmer 60 Sprinkler/flood 150 90 cropping (FAO Study) Smallholders— BIPP Zimbabwe Rehabilitation of smallholders 61 Sprinkler/flood 148 90 rehabilitation irrigation scheme Estate farming, Caprivi Namibia Sugar production 10,000 Center pivot 100 10,000 Commercial farming, and other Smallholders—sugar countries Smallholders Gibbs –Northern Malawi – Approximately 1 ha/ben- 194 Gravity 136 264 – Ibuluma Northern and eficiary, new gravity-fed Central irrigation system Smallholders Shire Valley Malawi – Approximately 1 ha/ben- 7,940 Gravity 160 12,695 Shire Valley eficiary, new gravity-fed irrigation system Smallholders The same as Tanzania Rice 4,800 Gravity 100 4,800 Chinde Smallholders Chinde Mozambique Approximately 1 ha/ben- 5,000 Gravity 200 10,000 eficiary, new gravity-fed irrigation system Sources: The typical irrigation schemes were gathered from the main following sources: Gibbs 2003a; Coda 2006; World Project 2005; Afridev Associates 2004b; FAO 2000a; FAO Investment Centre Division 2004a, 2004b, 2004c; World Bank 2008b.

Economic Assessment of 5 Development Scenarios

5.1 Costs and Benefits of the Development Scenarios

5.1.1 Hydropower

The hydropower projects included in the Basin development scenarios and the economic analysis were selected from the Southern Africa Power Pool Generation and Transmission Expansion Study, SAPP (NEXANT 2007). Only hydropower projects that result in additional average power production were included in the scenarios developed as part of the MSIOA study. Benefits of additional firm and secondary energy production were quantified in physical terms and were included in the economic evaluation of the development options.2 A list of hydropower projects included in the economic analysis is presented in table 5.1. The analysis establishes a set of estimated costs and benefits associated with hydropower development options, of which the main ones are listed in table 5.2. The cost estimates for the hydropower investments are based on technical feasibility studies (where available) and information obtained during the regional and national consultations carried out between July and December 2009. The direct economic benefit of the investment in hydropower is the value of the power produced. The basis for the economic price of the average energy assumed in this analysis is the replacement value, calculated in terms of the cheapest alternative way to obtain that power. Replacement value establishes the cost of harnessing the power in a different way in the same system, either by importing power or buying the fuel and machinery necessary to generate it. Firm energy is the reliable and predictable production and thus carries a higher price than secondary energy, whose production cannot be foreseen and therefore must be sold at whatever price prevails at the moment it is generated. For firm energy, the value is assumed to be the estimated cost of power production from coal-fired power

2 The balance of energy production is average energy is the sum of firm and secondary energy. Firm and secondary energy are priced differently, as firm energy yields a price premium.

31 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table 5.1. Hydropower projects in the Zambezi River Basin (included in MSIOA) Hydropower plant Status Country Utility Estimated completion date Capacity (MW) Kapichira I existing Malawi ESCOM 2008 64 Nkula Falls existing Malawi ESCOM 2008 124 Tedzani existing Malawi ESCOM 2008 90 Cahora Bassa existing Mozambique HCB 2008 2,075 Kafue Gorge Upper existing Zambia ZESCO 2008 990 Kariba North existing Zambia ZESCO n/a 720 Victoria Falls existing Zambia ZESCO n/a 108 Kariba South existing Zimbabwe ZESA n/a 750 Kapichira II extension Malawi ESCOM 2010 64 HCB North Bank extension Mozambique EdM 2012 850 Itezhi Tezhi extension Zambia ZESCO 2013 120 Kariba North extension Zambia ZESCO 2012 360 Kariba South extension Zimbabwe ZESA n/a 300 Kholombizo projected Malawi ESCOM 2025 240 Lower Fufu projected Malawi ESCOM 2024 100 Songwe I, II & III projected Malawi ESCOM 2024 170 Mphanda Nkuwa projected Mozambique EdM 2024 2,000 Rumakali projected Tanzania TANESCO 2022 256 Songwe I, II & III projected Tanzania TANESCO 2024 170 Batoka Gorge North projected Zambia ZESCO 2024 800 Kafue Gorge Lower projected Zambia ZESCO 2022 750 Batoka Gorge South projected Zimbabwe ZESA 2024 800 Tedzani 1 & 2 refurbishment Malawi ESCOM 2008 40 Kafue Gorge Upper refurbishment Zambia ZESCO 2009 150 Kariba North refurbishment Zambia ZESCO 2008 120 Source: NEXANT 2007. Note: Capacity of certain individual HPP projects has been updated with more accurate estimates. plants in southern Africa, set at $0.058 per KWh.3 price). It is therefore reasonable to assume the value That indicates the price one would otherwise have of the secondary energy being equal to the value of to pay for energy if the firm energy were not avail- energy available at unpredictable times. During the able from hydropower production. preparation of this study, power was traded at $0.02 At present, power is traded in the Southern to $0.05 per KWh. The value of $0.021 per KWh is African Power Pool, but often in an undifferentiated used as an approximation of the economic value of manner (timing of delivery does not influence the secondary energy in the analysis.4

3 In the recent Mozambique Power Generation Master Plan, the avoided costs of power production from new facilities in South Africa are cited at between $0.035 and $0.056/KWh (Ministry of Energy 2009: 4–19). With South Africa representing the biggest market and ESKOM managing more than 80 percent of capacity and output, it is reasonable to use $0.056/KWh as price indicator. The upper value of $0.056/KWh was chosen as the base price for firm energy and is a 2008 price (first mentioned in Ministry of Energy 2008: 17). As the analysis takes 2010 as the base year, a two percent yearly U.S. dollar inflation rate is assumed, and the price of $0.058/KWh is used. 4 Establishing the actual traded prices can be difficult as they constitute privileged commercial information. Therefore, confirming the validity of the assumptions is sometimes difficult. In some cases, hearsay gives some indications. An example is the prices from

32 Economic Assessment of Development Scenarios

Table 5.2. Costs and benefits of hydropower development options COSTS • Feasibility studies, surveys and investigations • Civil works • Equipment • Transmission lines • Operation and maintenance • Environmental mitigation measures (e.g., resettlement if required, compensation, negative impact on crop production, etc.) • Decrease in power output of other facilities (quantified through the hydrological modeling) • Impacts on downstream wetlands (e.g., loss in biodiversity, fisheries impacts, etc.) • Impacts on fisheries in the Basin • Tourism, loss in attraction value (e.g., livestock, floodplain agriculture, fisheries, etc.) BENEFITS • Increase in hydropower production with new investments • Increase in power output of existing facilities (quantified through hydrological modeling) • Increased water availability for crop production (quantified through hydrological modeling) • Positive impacts on fisheries (including fish farming) • Positive impacts on economic activities in wetlands (e.g., livestock, floodplain agriculture, and fisheries and so forth)

5.1.2 Irrigation margin of cropping activities and employment benefits). Indirect benefits, however, such as gains from The river/reservoir system model generates infor- extension, improved nutrition, and changed income mation on water available for irrigation. That infor- distribution are not considered. The crop budgets mation is used in models used to plan investments used in the irrigation scheme models have varying in irrigation schemes. The river/reservoir system degrees of detail depending on the availability of model estimates areas that can be developed for data. A number of farm budgets were drawn from irrigation under the cropping patterns described in data obtained from the Zambia National Farmers the projects. Estimates of areas suitable for future ir- Union and then transformed into an annualized rigation development are then used to assess the ir- farm budget that could be used in irrigation in- rigation benefits of various development scenarios. vestment analyses. Likewise, employment effects The costs of irrigation development options were estimated based on recent World Bank studies were estimated based on existing feasibility studies. (2008a, 2008b) of the irrigation sector in the Zambezi The costs include the direct investment costs of con- River Basin. veying water to fields, power lines, additional dams, infield works, feasibility studies, and relocation. Operation and maintenance costs are also included. 5.2 Economic Evaluation of The benefits of irrigation development options Environmental Impacts are estimated based on the modeling of representative irrigation farm systems. The benefits include The environmental costs and benefits from hydro- incomes from activities under irrigation (gross power development options include impacts on

Cahora Bassa HPP. Hearsay has it that management is satisfied to get $0.02/KWh, as the price has been below $0.01/KWh. In Septem- ber 2009, a deal was struck between Namibia and Zambia with a price indication of $0.049/KWh (which includes wheeling charges and transmission losses). Also, in the Mozambique Generation Master Plan, a cost price of $0.018/KWh from existing installations in South Africa is mentioned (Ministry of Energy 2009: 4–17). On pages 5–16 of the same report, the variable cost for coal-fired plants is set at $0.01/KWh. The lower limit, at $0.02/KWh (2008), is chosen, and the price updated to 2010 figures by applying a two percent yearly inflation rate, thus becoming $0.021/KWh.

33 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis sectors and resources such as fisheries, wetlands, and the changes in relation to the current situ- and tourism. The approach to economic evaluation ation, the economic net value of each scenario of the environmental impacts was establishing the was established). change in net economic value of the main resources of wetlands (land, fisheries, wildlife, and livestock) The effects of increased irrigation on wetlands resulting from changes in inflows. The economic as- are assumed to be directly related to the rate of sessment of impact on the wetlands in the Zambezi implementation of new irrigation schemes in the Delta were done in greater detail than for other Basin. The effect of irrigation is measured as the wetlands, where impact was assessed in a much resulting change in inflows to the wetlands. The broader terms (these wetlands included the Barotse calculation of these effects is made on a before-and- Floodplains, Kafue wetlands, Luangwa swamps, after basis: the current situation is compared with and Lower Shire wetlands). a future situation in which all irrigation has been For the Zambezi Delta, a five-step method was implemented. When applying this to the timeline applied:5 of the economic analysis, the effect on wetlands is calculated according to the rate of implementation 1. Establishing the present economic value of of irrigation (i.e., the effect is gradually introduced). various assets.6 The effects on fisheries are linked to the devel- 2. Establishing parameters for flooding scenarios opment of new HPPs and to changes in reservoir (various scenarios of magnitude, duration, and operational rules, where revenue from fisheries timing were established). is assumed to be related to the reservoir area: the 3. Establishing the benefits of a target scenario (the greater the reservoir, the greater the revenue. The net economic value of the sustainable exploita- impacts on fishery activity in the Zambezi Delta tion of the Delta was defined as a desired set of and the other wetlands were integrated into the agriculture, livestock, and wildlife benefits, and evaluation of the value of wetlands as described the value was then calculated as a ratio to the above. current situation). Hydropower and irrigation developments 4. Assessing the relationship between scenarios increase water abstractions and require additional and the target situation (for each calculated storage upstream of Victoria Falls. Data on flows scenario, the percentage of fulfillment of the at Victoria Falls are used to assess the impact of target situation was calculated). these developments on tourism and on the eco- 5. Assessing the additional economic value of nomic values of different flooding regimes in the each scenario (based on the calculated ratios Zambezi Delta.

5 For the remaining wetlands, the changes in inflows in each scenario were applied as a ratio to the value of the wetlands. 6 Estimated economic values of wetlands were based on the work of Turpie and others (1999) and updated.

34 References

Afridev Associates. 2004a. Environmental Assessment of the Caprivi Agriculture Project and Lake Liambezi Rehabilitation. South Africa. ———. 2004b. Caprivi, Sugar Sector Project Environmental Assess- ment. Task 2, Appendix 9. South Africa. AGRITEX. 1998. Mwenje Nyarumwe Irrigation Scheme. Feasibility Report. Harare, Zimbabwe. Anderson, J, P. Dutton, P. Goodman, and B. Souto. 1990. Evaluation of the wildlife resource in the Marromeu complex with recom- mendations for its future use.LOMACO, Maputo, Mozambique Beilfuss, R., and C. Brown. May 2006. “Assessing Environmental Flow Requirements for the Marromeu Complex of the Zambezi Delta, Mozambique—Application of the Drift Model,” 159. Museum of Natural History/University Eduardo Mondlane. Maputo, Mozambique. Chande, B. and Dutton, P. October 1997. Impact of Hydrological changes on the Marremen Complex of the Zambezia Delta with Special Attention to the Mammal Fauna. Paper presented at the Workshop on the Sustainable use of Cahorra Bassa dam and the Zambezi Valley. Songo, Mozambique. Coche, A. G., FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 1998. Sup- porting Aquaculture Development in Africa: Research Network on Integration of Aquaculture and Irrigation. Rome, Italy. CODA. 2006. Lower Shire Valley Irrigation Project. South Africa. CODA and Ninham Shand Ltd. 2008. Shire Valley Irrigation Project Report. South Africa. Denconsult. 1998. Sector Studies under ZACPLAN. Sector Study No. 2, Zambezi River Authority, Lusaka, Zambia. DFID (Department For International Development). 2003. Handbook for the Assessment of Catchment Water Demand and Use. Car- diff, UK. Direcção Nacional de Hidráulica Agrícola. 2003. Levantamento dos Regadios na Zona Centro do País (Zambézia, Sofala, Manica e Tete). Descrição dos Regadios Existentes no País. FDHA/GT/ PAI/003, Cooperação Italiana. Mozambique. Econ Pöyry. 2008. Powering Up: Costing Power Infrastructure Invest- ment Needs in Southern and Eastern Africa. Background Paper 5,

35 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Africa Infrastructure Sector Diagnostic. World FAO and Sub Region for East and Southern Africa Bank. Washington D.C. 2000. Socio-Economic Impact of Smallholder Euroconsult Mott MacDonald. December 2007. Inte- Irrigation Development in Zimbabwe. Harare, grated Water Resources Management Strategy Zimbabwe. and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River FAO and World Bank. 2008. Zambia, Commercial Basin. Final Report, Rapid Assessment, South Af- Agriculture Development Project (CADP). rican Development Community Water Division/ Identification Mission. Washington DC. Zambezi River Authority (SADC-WD/ZRA). Gabinete do Plano de Desenvolvimento da Região Gaborone, Botswana and Lusaka, Zambia do Zambeze. 2007. Mozambique. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 1992. Gammelsrød T, 1996, ‘Effect of Zambezi Manage- AQUASTAT. http://www.fao.org/nr/water/ ment on the Prawn Fishery of the Sofala Bank’, aquastat/main/index.stm in Acreman MC, Hollis GE, (eds), Water Man- ———.1997. FAO Land and Water Bulletin 4. Ir- agement and Wetlands in Sub-Saharan Africa. rigation Potential in Africa: A Basin Approach. IUCN. Gland, Switzerland. Rome, Italy. Gibbs. 2003a. Small-Scale Irrigation Development ———. 1998. Crop Evapotranspiration—Guidelines Study (SSIDS). Project 1, Volume 1. for Computing Crop Water Requirements. FAO ———. 2003b. Small-Scale Irrigation Develop- Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. Rome, Italy. ment Study (SSIDS). Project 1. New Gravity- ———. 1999. AQUASTAT. Global Map of Irrigation Fed Surface Irrigation Schemes in Northern Areas, Zimbabwe. Rome, Italy. http://www.fao.org/ Malawi. nr/water/aquastat/quickWMS/aquastatsum5.htm ———. 2003c. Small-Scale Irrigation Development ———. 2000a. Socio-Economic Impact of Small- Study (SSIDS). Project 2. New Gravity-Fed holder Irrigation Development in Zimbabwe, Surface Irrigation Schemes in Central Malawi. Case Studies of Ten Irrigation Schemes (Prin- ———. 2003d. Small-Scale Irrigation Develop- ciple Model). Harare, Zimbabwe. ment Study (SSIDS). Project 4. Rehabilitation/ ———. 2000b. National Irrigation Policy and Strat- Improvement of Existing Small Irrigation egy. TCP/BOT/0065. Rome Italy Schemes in Central and Southern Malawi. ———. 2001. Botswana. Forestry Outlook Study for Goodman, P. 1992. The Zambezi Delta—an oppor- Africa. Gaborone, Botswana. tunity for sustainable utilization of wildlife. ———. 2003a. Botswana. National Irrigation Policy IWRB News 8: 12. and Strategy—Irrigation Situation Analysis. Re- GWP (Global Water Partnership) and CIDA (Cana- port November 2003 (second draft) by Stephens dian International Development Agency). 2008. T.F. TCP/BOT/0065 (A) Rome, Italy. Zambian Integrated Water Resources Manage- ———. 2003b. Botswana—Strategy Brief for Na- ment and Water Efficiency Implementation tional Food Security and Agricultural Develop- Plan. Lusaka, Zambia. ment. Horizon 2015. Rome, Italy. Hazell, P., and C. Poulton. 2007. All-Africa Review FAO Investment Centre Division. 2004a. “Bank- of Experiences with Commercial Agriculture. able Investment Project Profile (BIPP), Nega- Case Study on Food Staples, Second Draft. Nega Irrigation Scheme Development.” TCP/ Hidrotécnica Portuguesa (HP). 1965a. Anexos ao ZAM/2905 (I), New Partnership for Africa’s Plano General de Fomento e Ocupacao do Vale Development (NEPAD), Zambia. do Zambeze. Elementos de estudo. Ocupacão ———. 2004b. “Bankable Investment Project Profile de terras cadastro. Maputo: Missão de Fomento (BIPP), Rehabilitation of Smallholder Irrigation e Povoamento do Zambeze. Development.” TCP/ZIM/2905 (I), NEPAD, Hoguane, A. October 1997. Shrimp abundance and Zimbabwe. river runoff in Sofala Bank—the role of the ———. 2004c. “National Medium Term Investment Zambezi. Paper presented at the workshop on Programme (NMTIP).” TCP/ZAM/2906 (I), the sustainable use of Cahora Bassa Dam and NEPAD, Zambia. the Zambezi Valley. Songo, Mozambique.

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Imagen Consulting Ltd. 2008. Rapid Resource As- ———. August 2009b. Implementation of the Irri- sessment of Irrigation and Land Cover for the gation Greenbelt Initiative. Lilongwe, Malawi. Kafue River Basin. Country Water Resources ———. 2009c. Annual Report. July 2008 to June Assistance Strategy, World Bank, Zambia. 2009. Lilongwe, Malawi. Manzungu, E. 2002. Towards Sustainable Water Mitchell, T. D., and P. D. Jones. 2005. “An Improved Resources and Irrigation Development in the Method of Constructing a Database of Monthly Post Fast Track Land Reform Era in Zimbabwe. Climate Observations and Associated High- Study for Presidential Review Committee led by Resolution Grids.” International Journal of Dr Charles Utete. Harare, Zimbabwe. Climatology 25: 693–712. http://www.inter- Maidment, 1993. Handbook of Hydrology. USA. science.wiley.com. MASDAR Ltd. 2004. Inventory Survey of Irrigation NEPAD and FAO. 2004a. Government of the Re- Schemes and Potential Areas in the Eastern and public of Zambia. Support to NEPAD-CAADP Southern Provinces of Zambia. JICA. Lusaka, Implementation. Nega-Nega Irrigation Scheme Zambia. Development. Johannesburg South Africa Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development ———. 2004b. Government of Republic of Zimba- of Zimbabwe. 2004. Paper on Strategies for bwe. Support to NEPAD-CAADP Implementa- Increased Agricultural Production. Harare, tion. Rehabilitation of Smallholder Irrigation Zimbabwe. Schemes. Johannesburg South Africa. ———. 2008. Agriculture Policy for Zimbabwe, NEXANT. 2007. SAPP Regional Generation and Third Draft. Harare, Zimbabwe. Transmission Expansion Plan Study. Draft Final ———. 2009a. Zambezi Feasibility Report. Chirun- Report, Main Report, Volume 2, submitted to du Muzarabani Report. Harare Zimbabwe. the Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) Coor- ———. 2009b. Irrigation Pre-Feasibility Study for dination Center. Harare, Zimbabwe. Upstream of Lake Kariba and Shoreline in the NORPLAN, COWI, DHI, and W&PES. 2002. Republic of Zimbabwe. Draft Report. Harare, Preliminary Study for the Stabilisation of the Zimbabwe. Course of the Songwe River. Final Preliminary Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, Rural Liveli- Study Report. hoods and Agricultural Development Project Odada, E., and D. Olago, Pan-African START Sec- from Malawi, Grenard Mkwende. No date. A retariat. 2003. GIWA Sub-Region No. 47: East Study of the Irrigation Potential in the Eleven African Rift Valley Lakes. Programme Districts. Final Report. Lilongwe, Orr, B., B. Eiswerth, T. Finan, L. Malembo, Univer- Malawi. sity of Arizona, Forestry Research Institute of Ministry of Environment and Tourism of Namibia. Malawi, and USAID (United States Agency 2000. Environmental Impact Assessment for International Development). 1998. Malawi (EIA)—Guidelines for Irrigated Agriculture. Public Lands Utilization Study. Final Report. Windhoek, Namibia. USAID Lilongwe, Malawi. Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development Piésold, Scott Wilson. 2003. Integrated Kafue River from Malawi. 2001. Feasibility Study for Shire Basin Environmental Impact Assessment Study. River Flow Augmentation Project. Lilongwe, State of Environment Report. Ashford Kent, UK. Malawi. Malawi Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). ———. November 2004. Draft, Annex to the En- April 2002. http://www.imf.org/External/ vironmental and Social Impact Assessment NP/prsp/2002/mwi/01/ of Selected Established Irrigation Schemes, AfDB, SADC and FAO. 2006. Program Preparation Volume 3. Report of the Mid-Zambezi Agricultural Water ———. 2008. Annual Report. July 2007 to June 2008. Management for Food Security Programme. ———. July 2009a. Irrigation Development in Gaborone, Botswana. Malawi in the Next Five Years (2008–2014). SEDAC (Socioeconomic Data and Applications Cen- Lilongwe, Malawi. ter). 2008. “Griddled Population of the World,

37 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

version 3 (GPWv3) and Global Rural-Urban Map- 27.6 Million (US$40 Million Equivalent) to the ping Project (GRUMP), alpha version.” Socio- Republic of Malawi for an Irrigation, Rural economic Data and Application Center. http:// Livelihoods and Agricultural Development sedac.ciesin.org/gpw/documentation.jsp. Project. World Bank, Washington DC. Shawinigan Engineering and Hidrotécnica Portu- ———. May 2008a. Commercial Agriculture Devel- guesa. September 1990. Simulation of the Joint opment Project, Identification Mission. Annex 3, Operation of Major Power Plants in the Zambezi Market Opportunities and Constraints. World River Basin. Final Report. Bank, Washington DC. Stephens, T. 2008. Specialist Thematic Report Irriga- ———. May 2008b, Commercial Agriculture Devel- tion in the Kafue Basin. opment Project, Identification Mission. Annex SWECO Groner AS. 2005. Rapid Water Resources 5, Mwomboshi Dam. World Bank, Washington and Water Use Assessment of Angola. Final DC. Report. Natural Water Sector Management World Project. 2005. Irrigation, Rural Livelihoods Project Activity C. Ministry of Energy and Water and Agricultural Development. PAD Project Affairs. Angola. 339578. Tahal Group. 2008. Zambezi Agro-Commercial WRC (Water Resources Commission). 2008. Integrated Development Project. Proposal for ———. 2009. Detailed Environmental Impact As- Field Investigations, Revised Business Plan, sessment Study for a Pre-Feasibility/Feasibility and Engineering Design Services, Volume 1: on Utilization of the Water Resources of the Technical Proposal. Chobe Zambezi River, Final Environmental Thá, D., and D. Seager. 2008. Linking the Future Impact Assessment Report. of Environmental Flows in the Zambezi Delta, Yachiyo Engineering Co. 1995. The Study on the Mozambique. Second Draft. National Water Resources Master Plan in the Turpie, J., B. Smith, L. Emerton, and J. Barnes. 1999. Republic of Zambia. Yachiyo Engineering Lu- Economic Value of the Zambezi Basin Wetlands. saka, Zambia. Cape Town: University of Cape Town Press. Zimbabwe National Water Authority. 2006. As- World Bank. 2005a. Towards a Strategy for Agri- sessment of Surface Water Resources of Zim- cultural Development in Angola—Issues and babwe and Guidelines for Planning. Harare, Options. World Bank, Washington DC. Zimbabwe. ———. 2005b. Project Appraisal Document on a proposed IDA Grant in the Amount of SDR

38 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

Assumptions for irrigation modeling were discussed and agreed upon with the national stakeholders at the national technical workshops carried out in each riparian country. The three situations distinguished in the modeling of irrigation development are:

• The current situation of irrigation development (Scenarios 0, 1, 2, 2A, 2B, 2C, 2D, and Scenarios 10 and 11 with sub-scenarios); • Implementation of ongoing and identified irrigation projects (IPs) representing short-term irrigation development (Scenarios 3, 5, 5A, 7, 8, and 9); and • National long-term and ambitious high-level irrigation plans (HLI) representing long-term irrigation development (Scenarios 4, 6, and 6A).

The following section details the current situation of irrigation and the identified irrigation projects by each riparian country. Analysis is done based on the following characteristics and assumptions:

• The size of equipped area (also referred to as the irrigable, com- mand area). • Equipped area is assumed to have the potential to be used twice a year (intensity of 200 percent). For example, a hectare can be used and irrigated for wheat during the dry season and the same hectare used for maize growing with complementary irrigation during the wet season. • Recession/wetland/dambo irrigation is not taken into account. • The distinction between equipped and irrigated areas is reinforced by itemizing dry season crops, wet season crops, and perennial crops. • The various control points and irrigation abstraction points referred to in the country descriptions are identified in figure 1.4.

39 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

A1.1 Angola insecurity; (d) ensure the sustainable management of Angola’s natural resources, principally its rich A1.1.1 Agriculture and irrigation biodiversity; and (e) minimize the risk of conflict development policies over land tenure and other natural resources. The World Bank (2005a) document “Towards a The government of Angola’s strategic framework Strategy for Agricultural Development in Angola— for the period 2003 to 2010 is outlined in the Estra- Issues and Options” is intended as a basis for formu- tégia de Combate à Pobreza (ECP) for 2003 to 2005, lating the bank’s strategy for assistance to Angola in revised at the end of 2005 for the period 2006–2008, the agricultural sector as it begins to transition out and for the Poverty Reduction Strategy for 2006– of the humanitarian/emergency assistance phase 2010. The ECP objective is consolidating peace via the current Transition Support Strategy. This and national unity by implementing sustainable strategy has three overall goals: (a) food security improvements to living conditions for the most vul- in the local sense of helping farm populations to nerable people and creating conditions to allow for become secure at household level, (b) food security their active participation in the country’s economic in the national sense of generating marketed sur- and social development. The ECP includes ten prior- pluses to replace expensive imports and to improve ity areas of intervention that are all supported by the balance of payments, and (c) the promotion of relevant national programs: social reintegration, self-sustaining growth in rural areas, particularly demining, food security and rural development, in agriculture. HIV/AIDS, education, health, basic infrastructure, Concerning the irrigation subsector, this docu- employment and vocational training, governance, ment proposes an action plan that includes support and macroeconomic management. for the definition of a national irrigation policy that The overall strategic framework is complement- encompasses reform of the Direcção Nacional de ed by the following nationwide programs, which Hidráulica Agrícola e Engenharia Rural (National reflect the country’s priorities during the transition Directorate of Rural Hydrological Engineering) and from emergency to rehabilitation and reconstruc- reorientation of the primary thrust of government tion: (i) Agriculture Recovery and Development Op- efforts from promoting and managing irrigation tions Review, (ii) Food Security National Program, systems toward research in appropriate technolo- (iii) Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Program— gies for the smallholder sector. Water control in Priority Phase: 2003–2005, and (iv) Rehabilitation this context is best done not as an independent and Reconstruction Program—Stabilization and project; rather, it should be part of the overall effort Recovery Phase: 2006–2010. to raise production so that costs and benefits can The review of the Agricultural Sector and Food be compared with all other potential interventions Security Strategy and Investment Priority Setting and investments. Existing large irrigation schemes (July 2004) defines the strategy for agricultural de- constitute a sunk cost, so the best course for the velopment: “There is an urgent need to increase ag- government is to evaluate them with a view to- ricultural production aimed at (a) meeting domestic ward making them self-sustaining, cooperative, or requirements, which are still heavily dependent on private-sector ventures. food aid and imports, and (b) recovering the rural The World Bank’s strategy for the period economy, destroyed during long years of war and 2007 to 2009 for Angola is organized around three affected by inadequate economic policies.” pillars: (a) strengthening public-sector manage- This document also emphasizes agricultural and ment and government institutional capacity, rural sector goals, which are to (a) increase agricul- (b) supporting the rebuilding of critical infrastruc- tural production in a sustainable way, for domestic ture and the improvement of service delivery for and foreign markets, on the basis of comparative and poverty reduction, and (c) promoting growth of competitive advantages; (b) promote rural trade and non-mineral sectors, including support to Small- agroprocessing; (c) raise the levels of prosperity of holders Agricultural Development and Water Sector rural families and minimize rural poverty and food Institutional Development projects.

40 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

The Plano Director Nacional de Irrigação (Plano Irriga) was still under preparation in December Table A1.1. Irrigation abstraction points in Angola 2009 and was expected to be presented in the first Control Irrigation abstraction half of 2010. The preliminary conclusions were not point Name point available for review in connection with the Ango- 2 Chavuma I.12.01 lan section of this analysis on the Zambezi River 3 Lungúe Bungo I.11.01 Basin. This report is based only on the available 4 Luanginga I.10.01 information found in various reports and given by 6 Cuando I.08.01 the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the National Directorate of Water Resources (notably after the national consultation workshop held in Luanda on December 2, 2009). During this A1.1.3 Irrigation sector – current situation workshop it was acknowledged that a good deal of informal irrigation occurred in the Angolan According to FAO (1997), the irrigation area in the subbasins, the presence of which complicates the Angolan part of the Zambezi River Basin is only estimation of the current state of irrigation (formal 2,000 hectares. Moreover, according to SWECO or informal) in the country. Current formal irriga- (2005), only 500 hectares are under irrigation in the tion in Angola does not exceed 5,000 hectares. The Moxico province, inside the Zambezi River Basin, current farmers are smallholders growing mixed and around 4,000 hectares are under irrigation in crops (rice, vegetables, and fruits). the Cuando Cubango province, outside the Basin. There is an urgent need to increase agricultural The 500 hectares irrigated perimeter is located in production, according to the Review of Agricultural the Perimetro de Luena, which irrigates rice, fruits, Sector and Food Security Strategy and Investment and vegetables. No other formal irrigation scheme Priority Setting (July 2004). Moreover, according to is listed in this study. the World Bank (2005a), the Planalto Central region, These low estimates were slightly revised which includes the Moxico province and its portion upward by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural of the Zambezi River Basin, is the key to agricultural Development after the national consultation, espe- development in Angola. However, it seems that the cially in the Chavuma subbasin, where the city of Zambezi River Basin has not been a priority irriga- Luena alone uses around 1,000 hectares of irrigation. tion development zone yet. The consultant has not Table A1.2. lists the irrigation areas considered in found any feasibility study for a future irrigation the model. scheme, even if the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development plans to triple the irrigation A1.1.4 Identified irrigation development areas in the near future. projects

A1.1.2 Area in the water allocation model According to SWECO (2005), there are only 1,500 hectares of new irrigation areas planned in the The Angolan area of the Zambezi River Basin en- Angolan area of the Zambezi River Basin: the short- compasses four subbasins: term 500 hectares and long-term 1,000 hectares extensions of the Perimetro de Luena. According to • Cuando/Chobe subbasin (8); Euroconsult Mott MacDonald (2007), there is pos- • Luanginga subbasin (10); sibility for a new large-scale irrigated perimeter in • Lungúe Bungo subbasin (11); and the Angolan part of the Basin (developed under the • Upper Zambezi subbasin (12). same model as the large-scale sugar estates in the lower parts of the Basin). Such a project could be Irrigation abstractions in Angola are modeled situated close the city of Luena for transportation through four abstraction points, as shown in table and exportation facilities. A1.1.

41 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A1.2. Current irrigation areas in Angolan part of ZRB Crop (ha) Control point Name Irrigation abstraction point Rice Vegetables Citrus Total 2 Chavuma I.12.01 1,000 750 750 2,500 3 Lungúe Bungo I.11.01 500 250 250 1,000 4 Luanginga I.10.01 250 250 250 750 6 Cuando I.08.01 250 125 125 500 Total 2,000 1,375 1,375 4,750 Note: It was assumed that there is no supplementary irrigation during the wet season.

Table A1.3. Identified projects in Angola: Irrigation areas

Irrigation Crop (ha) Control abstraction point Name point Project Sugar Rice Vegetables Citrus Total 2 Chavuma I.12.01 Sugarcane irrigation project 5,000 — — — 5,000 3 Lungúe I.11.01 Small irrigation development with the Perimetro — 250 125 125 500 Bungo de Luena model 4 Luanginga I.10.01 Cazombo/Lumbalo Nginbo rice irrigation project — 5,000 — — 5,000 6 Cuando I.08.01 n/a — — — — 0 Total 5,000 5,250 125 125 10,500

This sugarcane irrigation scheme possibility poverty. As stated in the Ninth National Develop- was confirmed by the Ministry of Agriculture and ment Plan, Botswana’s agriculture development Rural Development with a plan of 5,000 hectares of objectives are to: irrigation development in the Chavuma subbasin. Moreover, there civil works are ongoing for the de- • Improve food security at the household and velopment of the Cazombo/Lumbalo Nginbo 5,000 national levels; hectares rice irrigation project in the Luanginga • Diversify the agricultural production base; subbasin. Table A1.3 lists the identified projects that • Increase agricultural output and productivity; were considered in the model. and • Increase employment opportunities.

A1.2 Botswana To realize these objectives and to enhance the sector’s contribution to the national economy, the A1.2.1 Agriculture and irrigation government has devised the following plans and development policies strategies:

Both the prospective plan (Vision 2016) and the • The National Master Plan for Arable Agriculture medium-term plan recognize the importance of the and Dairy Development (NAMPAADD) of 2002; agricultural sector in enhancing national economic • The Revised National Policy for Rural Develop- growth, creating employment, improving food se- ment of 2002; and curity, and alleviating poverty—particularly rural

42 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

• The National Strategy for Poverty Reduction • Botswana: National Irrigation Policy and Strat- of 2002. egy—Irrigation Situation Analysis (FAO 2003a). • Botswana: Strategy Brief for National Food Se- The NAMPAADD aimed to devise policies and curity and Agricultural Development—Horizon programs that would enhance the performance and 2015 (FAO 2003b). sustained development of agriculture. Three areas of interventions are particularly addressed in the The Botswana area of the Basin represents plan and elaborated below: only a very small portion, approximately one percent of the entire Zambezi River Basin area. • Rain-fed agriculture. Focusing primarily on small, Therefore, it is not surprising that the irrigation traditional farms, the main thrust of the plan is areas are not significant in this part of the Basin. to transform small farms into viable commercial However, the government of Botswana and its farms. To this end, the plan calls for the introduc- Department of Water Affairs are very advanced tion of mechanization service centers and the im- in the process of transferring water from the Zam- provement of farm inputs and farm management bezi River to water needing sectors outside the practices. The plan also envisions the possibility Zambezi River Basin (e.g., the Chobe/Zambezi of encouraging the flow of private investment Transfer Scheme). into the development of agribusiness. • Irrigated agriculture. The prevalence of drought A1.2.2 Area in the water allocation model and the inadequacy and unreliability of rainfall in Botswana make irrigation, to the extent the The Botswana area of the Zambezi River Basin main- potential exists, an important method to ensure ly encompasses one subbasin, subbasin Cuando/ the sustained growth of agriculture. In irriga- Chobe (8). However, the possible future transfer tion development, the emphasis is on horticul- intakes could be situated either in the Cuando/ tural development, an area in which Botswana Lake Linyati/Chobe system or directly in the Zam- seems to have a better comparative advantage. bezi River, between Kasana and Victoria Falls. The To exploit this potential, the plan recommends downstream option is the one considered in the the development of irrigation schemes using modeled control point. both freshwater and treated urban wastewater. In the model, at control point 8 all the water While the emphasis is on horticulture, the plan abstractions of the Cuando/Chobe subbasin (8) also includes field crops such as wheat, maize, and of the small, lateral Zambezi River subbasin and fodder. During the current plan period, the between Kasana and Victoria Falls are estimated. It target is to bring 5,200 to 5,400 hectares of farm was not possible to model the detailed functioning land under irrigation, of which 1,600 to 1,800 of the Cuando/Chobe River as well as the function- hectares of land is planned for irrigation with ing of the Lake Liambezi system due to the lack of freshwater and 3,600 hectares with reclaimed hydrological information on its complex inflows urban wastewater. and outflows (for instance, there may be some • Dairy development. The emphasis is to remove waters going upstream from the Zambezi River the constraints that have previously hampered to Lake Liambezi as well as some water transfers the growth of productivity in the subsector. between the Cuando River and the Okavango Delta). Therefore, the Cuando/Chobe subbasin is a The following FAO reports and documents dormant branch of the model, and its contribution provide additional insight into agriculture: to the basin system water balance is taken into account through lateral inflows between the Barotse • National Irrigation Policy and Strategy (FAO Floodplain (control point 5) and Victoria Falls. 2000b). Irrigation abstractions in Botswana are therefore • Botswana: Forestry Outlook Study for Africa modeled through one control point as shown in (FAO 2001). table A1.4.

43 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

A1.2.4 Identified irrigation development Table A1.4. The irrigation abstraction point in projects Botswana According to FAO (1997), major water develop- Irrigation abstraction Control point Name point ment is required to irrigate 10,000 hectares located 8 Livingstone, before I.06.04 in the Pandamatenga plains outside the Zambezi Victoria Falls River Basin in northeastern Botswana, where water from the Zambezi River is to be transferred. This program notably proposes significant investments in drainage and related roads over an area of 9,250 hectares in the southern plains area of Pandamaten- A1.2.3 Irrigation sector – current situation ga (figure A1.1.). The various documents listed in section A 1.2.4. This project is detailed in the following docu- reflect that there is currently almost no irrigation ments: scheme in Botswana using the waters of the Zam- bezi River Basin. This information was confirmed • Tahal Group (2008), stating that with the “devel- during the national consultation workshop in Ga- opment of 18,700 hectares of new agricultural borone on October 29, 2009. areas on new commercial farms. These areas will grow crops under irrigation; in areas not

Figure A1.1. Location of the Pandamatenga irrigation project

ZAMBIA ZAMBIA ANGOLA Kasane For detail, see Zambezi Kasane map at right NAMIBIA River

i nt ZIMBABWE ya n KASANE O Li ka FOR v Ngama a seri n g EXTENSION o Xaud u m ZIMBABWE CHOBE Okavango CHOBE NAMIBIA KAZUMA Nokeneng Swamps NATIONAL Maun MAIKAELO Tsau Nata PARK b ise E Sehithwa Lake Makgadikgadi Ngami Salt Pans 0 10 20

Rakops Bote SIBUYU ti Orapa KILOMETERS Lake Francistown Xau Letlhakane Shas he Mo tl Ghanzi o u tse PROJECT AREA Seruli Selebi-Phikwe kwa SALT PAN O Sefophe o Mamuno Serowe Palapye p Limp o OKAVANGO DELTA

Lotsane CHOBE NATIONAL PARK Mahalapye STATE LAND

TRIBAL LAND Kang SOUTH AFRICA OTHER ROAD

Tshane SECONDARY ROAD Mochudi MAJOR ROAD Molepolole Jwaneng Khakhea OTHER CITIES GABORONE N DISTRICT CAPITALS* o Kanye s s o Werda Lobatse b NATIONAL CAPITAL be Mosele RIVERS po M olo DISTRICT BOUNDARIES Tshabong INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES o p IBRD 37956 lo o July 2010 M * The town councils of Francistown, 0 50 100 150 Gaborone, Lobatse, and Selebi-Pikwe Bokspits have status equal to Districts. KILOMETERS

Source: WRC 2008. Note: The map also indicates other areas that could be supplied with water by the project.

44 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

reached by the irrigation system, rain-fed crops A1.3 Malawi are grown. The agricultural areas are planned for field crops, vegetables, and orchards”; and A1.3.1 Agriculture and irrigation • The infrastructure section in the recent docu- development policies ment from the Water Resources Commission (2009). Malawi’s commitment to poverty reduction was first formulated in the Poverty Alleviation Pro- The project was detailed during the national gramme in 1994 and culminated in the Vision 2020 consultation workshop in Gaborone on October document of 1998. Building on these initiatives, 29, 2009, and the consultant gathered updated the government launched the Malawi Poverty information from the Department of Water Affairs, Reduction Strategy Paper (MPRSP) in 2002. The which presented the Zambezi Integrated Agro- overall goal of the MPRSP is to achieve sustain- Commercial Development Project in a workshop in able poverty reduction by empowering the poor. Gaborone on October 28, 2009. Table A1.5 lists the Although economic diversification is a key objec- water amounts to be delivered for various water tive, the MPRSP acknowledges that for its three- uses through water transfers under the Zambezi year duration, the agricultural sector will remain Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project. the principal determinant of growth and therefore The information presented in the table is also sum- needs to be the focus of pro-poor policies. The marized in table A1.6. strategy focuses on four pillars and crosscutting According to the Department of Water Affairs, themes: (i) sustainable pro-poor economic growth; Stage 2 is long-term, so the consultant will consider (ii) human capital development; (iii) improving the irrigation development only of Stage 1 for the the quality of life for the most vulnerable; and identified project scenarios and the irrigation de- (iv) good governance. velopment of Stage 2 for the high-level irrigation Malawi’s agricultural development strategy scenarios. The water abstraction data was provided and objectives are outlined in the 1995 Agricultural by the Department of Water Affairs. In the modeling and Livestock Development Strategy and Action process, however, it was very difficult to stick to the Plan. Its four major thrusts were (i) to increase monthly breakdown of abstractions with the given the productivity and diversity of food crops in crop budget, which was adapted to conform to the the smallholder subsector to meet the objective of annual abstractions (table A1.7.). A special irriga- continued food security and improved nutrition tion model has thus been created for the Zambezi status at the individual, household, and national Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project, levels; (ii) to promote tobacco production in the so that the consultant did not calculate the water smallholder subsector so as to boost incomes and requirements, but rather used the given water contribute to poverty alleviation; (iii) to promote abstractions. For instance, with the consultant’s crop diversification away from tobacco in the estate calculations, it would have been difficult to irrigate subsector so as to broaden the base and increase the 1,500 hectares of vegetables with only 812,000 m3 output of high value-added crops for export and per year. domestic markets; and (iv) to promote the expan- According to the Department of Water Affairs, sion of the livestock sector and its integration with the equipped area is designed for winter grains, mixed-crop farming systems. vegetables, and orchards. However, the monthly In June 2000, the Ministry of Agriculture and water consumption clearly shows dry season irriga- Food Security formulated a new National Irrigation tion, and this is why an additional 5,000 hectares of Policy and Development Strategy. Key statements dry season maize is included in the model. include that the Department of Irrigation would

45 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions 3,880,800 71,146,680 23,367,025 47,759,656 67,265,880 Total Annual Total Continued on next page Continued 27,406 Dec 195,730 849,600 6,067,621 2,011,322 4,056,299 5,216,021 15,600 Nov 209,215 466,000 6,096,498 2,170,987 3,925,451 5,628,438 4,181 Oct 210,757 129,500 6,599,461 2,477,162 4,056,299 6,403,861 240 7,200 Sep 208,807 6,264,198 2,338,747 3,925,452 6,256,998 0 0 Aug 196,032 6,076,981 2,020,682 4,056,299 6,076,981 0 0 Jul 188,927 5,794,741 1,798,442 4,056,299 5,794,741 240 7,200 Jun 165,071 5,552,118 1,626,667 3,925,451 5,544,918 466 14,400 May 188,251 581,381 5,835,781 1,779,482 4,056,299 560 Apr 172,800 191,479 5,766,358 1,818,907 5,571,558 9,925,451 15,561 Mar 482,400 190,945 5,919,301 1,669,002 5,496,901 4,056,299 29,571 Feb 826,000 190,860 5,944,073 1,680,319 4,516,073 3,663,754 29,729 Jan 921,600 190,891 5,917,606 1,861,907 4,996,006 4,056,299 1–2 1–4 Water Water demand calculation* /month) /month) /month) /month) /month) /day) /day) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Total expected Total rainfall from (m Total expected Total rainfall from (m through Water irriga - to farm fish tion of field crops (m Total required required Total supply water conveyance for system (m - wa required Total fish farm into ter (m - wa required Total fish farm into ter (m Water losses and Water usage in fish farm and factory (m 7 2 5 3 Table A1.5. Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project: Monthly and daily water demand data Project: Agro-Commercial Monthly and daily Development water Integrated A1.5. Zambezi Table Number New Project – StageNew Area 1 – monthly balance farm water Fish 1 Fish farm – daily balance farm water Fish 6 4

46 47 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions 11,094 47,759,656 159,096,580 Total Annual Total Continued on next page Continued 713 64,881 Dec 190,848 168,329 9,899,400 4,056,299 990 72,966 Nov 190,848 187,615 3,925,451 13,662,000 992 79,908 Oct 190,848 206,576 4,056,299 13,669,500 990 77,968 Sep 130,848 208,567 (continued) 9,925,451 12,834,000 1,410 65,189 Aug 130,848 196,032 4,056,299 19,464,900 837 56,079 Jul 190,846 186,927 4,056,299 11,550,600 510 54,222 Jun 130,848 184,891 7,036,000 3,925,451 682 57,409 May 190,646 187,766 9,411,600 4,056,299 510 60,690 Apr 190,848 186,719 7,036,000 9,925,451 1,995 60,097 Mar 130,848 175,364 4,056,299 19,251,000 1,176 60,011 Feb 190,848 161,288 9,663,754 16,228,800 948 60,042 Jan 130,848 161,161 4,056,299 19,090,680 –5 6–9 6–7 –11 x Water Water 19,800 ha demand calculation* - /day) 3 /month) 3 /day) /day) /month) /month) 3 3 3 3 Water through through Water irriga - to farm fish tion of field crops (m Field crops, crops, Field and vegetables per hect - orchards (m are Total water sup water Total fish farm ply from field crops, to and vegetables orchards (m Total field crops, field crops, Total and vegetables orchards (m Total required required Total supply water conveyance for (m system Water losses and Water usage in fish farm and factory (m 10 Irrigation – monthly balance water 11 13 12 Table A1.5. Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project: Monthly and daily water demand data Project: Agro-Commercial Monthly and daily Development water Integrated A1.5. Zambezi Table Number 8 9

46 47 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions 105,398,925 Total Annual Total Continued on next page Continued 29 Dec 166,552 317,400 190,848 5,789,101 33 Nov 324,552 455,400 130,848 9,736,549 32 Oct 310,852 441,600 130,848 9,633,301 91 Sep 296,952 427,800 130,648 (continued) 8,906,549 45 Aug 497,052 627,900 130,848 15,406,601 27 Jul 241,752 972,600 130,848 7,494,301 17 Jun 109,752 234,600 190,648 3,112,549 22 May 172,752 309,600 190,848 5,955,901 17 Apr 109,752 234,600 190,848 9,112,549 45 Mar 490,152 621,000 100,848 15,194,701 42 Feb 246,752 579,600 130,848 12,565,046 31 Jan 291,492 422,280 190,848 9,094,981 –10 –15 x 12–19 16–17 Water Water 19,800 ha demand calculation* - /day) /day) 3 3 /day) 3 /month) /day) 3 3 Total field crops, field crops, Total and vegetables (m orchards Total water water Total R2 supply from field crops, to and vegetables orchards (m Total water sup water Total fish farm ply from field crops, to and vegetables (m orchards Total water water Total R2 supply from field crops, to and vegetables orchards (m Field crops, crops, Field and vegetables per orchards hectare (m 16 Table A1.5. Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project: Monthly and daily water demand data Project: Agro-Commercial Monthly and daily Development water Integrated A1.5. Zambezi Table Number 14 17 18 Irrigation – daily balance water 15

48 49 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions 2,500,000 175,104,805 Total Annual Total Continued on next page Continued 6,766 Dec 209,733 961,640 11,210,855 6,911 Nov 207,333 519,077 15,572,321 6,766 Oct 209,799 524,093 16,246,895 6,911 Sep 207,339 512,429 (continued) 15,372,881 6,766 Aug 209,733 699,849 735,000 21,695,915 6,766 Jul 209,799 495,444 19,498,775 6,911 Jun 207,333 295,493 8,864,601 6,766 May 209,733 967,904 11,966,415 6,911 Apr 207,993 296,981 8,891,441 6,766 Mar 209,793 672,901 20,841,225 7,233 Feb 202,533 617,279 17,282,652 6,766 Jan 209,733 459,959 14,240,120 + 19 + 20 Water Water –9 + 14 –8 + 18 demand –22 x 1.05 calculation* - - /day) 3 /month) /day) /month) /day) 3 3 3 3 Total monthly monthly Total demand for water new project area (m daily water Total stage demand for 1 project area design (m Total water de water Total industrymand for and settlement (m Total daily water daily water Total new demand for project area (m Total water de water Total industrymand for and settlement (m Total monthly water demand for new project monthly demand for water area Total 21 23 Industry – daily balance and settlement water 20 Total daily water demand for new project daily demand for water area Total 22 Table A1.5. Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project: Monthly and daily water demand data Project: Agro-Commercial Monthly and daily Development water Integrated A1.5. Zambezi Table Number Industry – monthly balance and settlement water 19

48 49 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions 186,701,032 100,000,000 275,104,805 Total Annual Total Continued on next page Continued Dec 279,973 635,613 8,499,151 18,546,906 19,704,005 Nov 273,979 793,050 8,219,178 11,472,630 23,791,499 Oct 273,979 798,066 8,493,151 17,266,319 24,740,046 Sep 279,973 786,402 (continued) 9,041,040 8,219,178 29,592,059 Aug 273,973 8,493,151 1,008,973 16,954,737 30,168,466 Jul 279,979 709,419 6,499,151 19,196,855 21,991,926 Jun 279,973 569,466 9,505,260 8,219,178 17,083,979 May 273,973 641,276 9,614,724 8,493,151 19,879,566 Apr 273,973 570,954 9,972,690 8,219,178 17,110,619 Mar 273,973 946,274 6,493,151 21,685,175 29,934,486 Feb 279,979 891,246 7,671,233 24,360,000 24,964,886 27,397 Jan 799,331 8,493,151 25,465,260 22,793,271 + 25 Water Water –22(23) –21 + 24 demand calculation* /month) 3 /day) 3 /day) /month) /month) 3 3 3 Total monthly monthly Total demand water stage 1 for (m Total monthly monthly Total demand for water Pantamantenga stage 2 at Farm (m Total daily water daily water Total NSC supply for (m Total monthly monthly Total supply to water NSC (m Total daily water daily water Total stage demand for 1 (m Total water demand for stage 1 demand for water Total 1 stage Monthly demand for water 26 Pandamantenga Farms – stage 2 Farms Pandamantenga 1 stage Monthly demand for water 28 Daily water demand for NSC Daily demand for water 25 Table A1.5. Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project: Monthly and daily water demand data Project: Agro-Commercial Monthly and daily Development water Integrated A1.5. Zambezi Table Number Water supply to North-South supply to Carrier (NSC)Water NSC Monthly demand for water 24 Daily water demand for stage 1 stage Daily demand for water 27

50 51 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions 461,805,897 Total Annual Total Dec 598,266 1,233,881 36,250,914 Nov 362,451 1,175,471 35,264,129 Oct 557,629 1,355,689 42,026,359 Sep 301,356 (continued) 1,087,770 32,633,099 Aug 546,927 1,555,900 47,143,203 Jul 425,705 195,122 95,188,781 Jun 316,642 886,906 26,589,299 May 916,604 957,880 29,694,290 Apr 912,421 882,775 26,483,249 Mar 699,525 1,645,799 51,019,761 Feb 870,000 1,761,246 49,316,885 Jan 821,460 1,554,791 48,196,531 Water Water –26 + 28 –27 + 29 demand calculation* /day) 3 /day) /month) 3 3 Total monthly monthly Total demand water stage 2 for (m Total daily Total demand for water Pantamantenga stage 2 at Farm (m Total daily water daily water Total stage demand for 2 (m Total water demand for stage 2 demand for water Total 2 stage Monthly demand for water 30 Table A1.5. Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project: Monthly and daily water demand data Project: Agro-Commercial Monthly and daily Development water Integrated A1.5. Zambezi Table Number Daily water demand for stage 1 stage Daily demand for water 29 Daily water demand for stage 2 stage Daily demand for water 31 : Botswana Department of Water Affairs 2009. Affairs Water Department: Botswana of Source demand in each line of the table. water associated to : numbers equate Note

50 51 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

water resources to ensure they are effectively Table A1.6. Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial implemented and managed; Development Project: water demand summary • Bring 80 percent of Malawi’s water resources to Annual water national standards on water by 2011; requirement • Provide support to mitigate the effects of water- Design stage Purpose (million m3) related disasters by 2011; and Stage 1 Farming (Stage 1) 175 • Bring 120,000 hectares under manageable and Supply to North-South Carrier 100 effective irrigation schemes by 2011. Total (stage 1) 275 Finally, in August 2009, the Ministry of Irriga- tion and Water Development elaborated the stra- Stage 2 Farming (Stage 1) 175 tegic document “Implementation of the Irrigation Farming (Stage 2) 187 Green Belt Initiative.” This initiative aims to exploit Supply to North-South Carrier 100 the high irrigation potential by expanding cover- Total (stage 2) 462 age and providing complementary infrastructure services with the ultimate objective of increasing productivity for income generation for the farmers in the country, consequently contributing to facilitate the development process in order to cre- economic growth and ensuring food security. By ate an environment in which the private sector, the nature of the program, it will have a broad smallholders, estates, and commercial farms invest spectrum of beneficiaries, primarily smallholder in irrigation development; irrigation would be pro- and large-scale farmers, agricultural produce moted to increase incomes and commercialization of processors, manufacturers, and small-scale busi- the sector; development of irrigation schemes would ness entrepreneurs. This initiative was used by ensure the full participation of farmer beneficiaries the consultant as an estimation of the long-term at every phase, from identification to planning, development plans. design, and implementation; an environmental The specific objectives of the Green Belt Initia- impact assessment would be undertaken for all tive are to: medium- and large-scale irrigation development; financing will ensure minimal government subsidy, • Increase agricultural productivity and produc- and the principles of cost sharing and cost recovery tion; would be applied. • Offer agricultural production diversification; In July 2006, the Ministry of Irrigation and Wa- • Increase income generation opportunities; ter Development prepared a strategic plan to be in • Increase availability of raw materials for the effect from July 2006 to July 2010. It stipulates the manufacturing industry; and following objectives: • Increase export opportunities.

• Increase water availability through construction A1.3.2 Overview of irrigation development of multi-purpose dams and water harvesting technologies by 2011; According to CODA and NINHAM SHAND Ltd • Achieve sustainable and integrated water re- (2008), Malawi’s irrigation development can be sources management; divided into four categories. The first and largest • Improve efficiency and effectiveness of monitor- category is private-sector estates developed on pub- ing and data management systems to 80 percent lic land largely with private capital and expertise, by 2011; such as growing sugar. The second is private estates • Contribute effectively toward meeting the coun- on freehold or leasehold land, producing mainly try’s regional and international obligations with tea, coffee, macadamia, and tobacco. The third is regard to the exploitation and management of government-owned settlement schemes on public

52 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions 812 6,000 1,379 Total 13,889 20,297 87,984 22,420 152,782 72 500 121 1,020 1,866 5,700 1,937 Dec 11,215 71 494 500 105 of abstractions for farming at Stage 1. Stage of abstractions farming at for 3 1,379 1,110 1,773 Nov 5,431 97 67 619 500 866 2,926 1,729 Oct 6,804 77 500 113 1,121 1,163 7,516 1,837 Sep 12,328 86 500 130 1,539 1,343 2,015 Aug 11,315 16,927 91 500 138 Jul 1,624 1,425 2,084 12,006 17,869 89 500 140 1,399 1,470 9,713 2,078 Jun ) 3 15,390 74 838 500 126 2,126 3,571 1,984 9,220 May 57 881 500 129 2,492 3,645 1,982 Apr 9,687 44 500 109 1,299 2,299 8,198 1,835 Mar 14,284 in table A1.6/7. mainly consists in the version of the design study to be used. In this study, the consultant will keep the figure at 175 million m the figure will keep the consultant In this study, be used. of the design study to in the version in table A1.6/7. mainly consists 3 76 38 500 1,513 1,735 1,457 Feb 11,325 16,645 95 43 and the 175 million m 3 500 1,544 2,133 1,709 Jan 10,959 16,982 Total Water losses and reserve for for losses and reserve Water of activitiesexpansion (10%) Other (compost, industry, industry, Other (compost, etc.) landfill, Essential oil Essential Vegetables (1,500 ha) Vegetables Orchards (3,000 ha) Orchards Grains and oilseeds (9,500 ha) Grains Aquaculture Table A1.7. Summary of annual water consumption at full production A1.7. Summary consumption at (1,000 m of annual water Table Activity : Botswana Department of Water Affairs 2009. Affairs Water Department: Botswana of Source the 152 million m between : the difference Note

53 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A1.8. Identified projects in Botswana (ha)

Irrigation Crop (ha) Control abstraction Winter point Name point Project Maize Maize Vegetables Soybeans Citrus Sorghum Total 8 Livingston, I.06.04 Zambezi Integrated before Victo- Agro-Commercial 5,000 5,000 1,500 2,000 3,000 2,300 18,800 ria Falls Development Project

• 25,000 hectares according to FAO (1992); Table A1.9. Irrigation abstraction points in Malawi • 36,500 hectares according to DENCONSULT Irrigation (1998); Control abstraction • Overall, a total of 26,245 hectares were irrigated point Name point during the financial year 2007/2008, compared 43 Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/ I.03.11 with 25,222 hectares the previous year, accord- Nyasa subbasin ing to the Ministry of Irrigation and Water 40 Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/ I.03.09 Development (2008); and Nyasa subbasin • Overall, a total of 24,976 hectares were irrigated 41 South Rukuru I.03.07 during the financial year 2008/2009, according 36 Songwe I.03.06 to the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Develop- 45 Liwonde I.03.04 ment (2009c). 47 Between Nkula Falls and Tedzani Falls I.03.03 In this study (see table A1.11), approximately 49 Between Tedzani Falls and Kapichira I.03.02 Falls 30,000 hectares of irrigated schemes were inven- 51 Lower Shire I.03.01 toried, which is in line with the above numbers. A national consultation was held in Lilongwe on September 20, 2009, and numerous documents were provided to the consultant. These documents are land in which rice is the principal crop grown, among those listed in this Malawi section. and the fourth category is “self-help” schemes on customary land, generally producing rice and A1.3.3 Area in the water allocation model vegetables. In the model, recession irrigation type, widespread in Malawi, called dambo irrigation is Irrigation abstractions in Malawi are all within the not included. Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa sub- In Malawi, the irrigated dry season crops are dif- basin (3) and are modeled through eight control ferent from those in other countries because during points that represent the irrigation abstractions in the dry season it is possible to cultivate rice, maize, the subbasins draining into Lake Malawi/Niassa/ soybeans, cotton, tobacco, and sorghum. Different Nyasa and the Shire River lateral subbasins between 7 sources describe the total irrigation area in Malawi: the existing or projected hydropower stations:

• 36,000 hectares in 2002 (excluding Dambos) • The Songwe River subbasin (which flows into according to NORPLAN, COWI, DHI, and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa); W&PES (2002); • The South Rukuru River subbasin (which flows into Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa);

7 Some of these abstraction points are shared with Tanzania.

54 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

• Directly from Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa; • The Mlomba scheme irrigates 308 hectares ac- • The rest of the Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa cording to the Malawi Public Lands Utilization subbasin; Study. • The Shire River subbasin situated between the • The Muona scheme is designed to include 50 Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa outlet and the percent rice and 50 percent maize and irrigates Nkula Falls, with the city of Liwonde; 527 hectares, according to the Malawi Public • The Shire River subbasin situated between the Lands Utilization Study, and 446 hectares, ac- Nkula Falls and the Tedzani Falls; cording to the Ministry of Irrigation and Water • The Shire River subbasin situated between the Development (2004). Tedzani Falls and the Kapichira Falls; and • The Masenjere and the Chidzimbi irrigation • The Shire River subbasin situated between the schemes irrigate 25 hectares and 80 hectares in Kapichira Falls and the confluence with the the Nsanje District to cultivate maize according Zambezi River. to the Malawi Public Lands Utilization Study and to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food A1.3.4 Irrigation sector – current situation Security.

Abstraction point I.03.01 Tea, tobacco, and coffee are also irrigated in Malawi. The Lujeri tea estate grows and processes According to CODA and NINHAM SHAND Ltd tea under the Mount Mulanje, the highest elevation (2008), “the irrigation development in the Shire point in Malawi (1,115 hectares according to the Valley includes five smallholder irrigation schemes Lujeri Tea Estate www.lujeritea.com). Tea is also pro- growing mainly rice and maize at Mlomba [I.03.04], duced at the Ruo tea estate, the Sayama tea estate, Nkhate [I.03.01], Muona [I.03.01], Chidzimbi [not the Makandi tea and coffee estate, and at the Na- identified], Masenjere [I.03.01]; Kasinthula sugar mingomba tea estate in the Thyolo District (which cane scheme, which previously grew rice [I.03.01]; covers 210 hectares if one considers the Mwalan- and Nchalo sugar cane estate developed by ILLOVO tunzi, the Namingomba, and the Mikundi estates, [I.03.01]”. The surface areas considered include according to the Birdlife IBA Factsheet, MW019 (figure A1.2.–A1.7.): Thyolo Tea Estates, www.birdlife.org). Because no information was available about the irrigated areas • Currently, Nchalo SUCOMA sugar estate has of coffee or tobacco, they are all considered as ir- 12,000 hectares of irrigated sugarcane, as con- rigated tea areas in Malawi. firmed at meeting with the general manager Illovo Sugar in June 2008. Abstraction point I.03.02 • According to the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development (2001), there is also the The Mkurumadzi River and the Lisungwe River Alumenda SUCOMA sugar estate, producing basins are situated on the right side of the Shire 1,000 hectares of irrigated sugarcane. River and represent the main part of this I.03.02 • The Kasinthula scheme irrigates 750 hectares of subbasin. These two river basins are not as devel- sugarcane, according to CODA and NINHAM oped for irrigation as the Lower Shire Valley, so it SHAND Ltd (2008). was assumed that only 200 hectares are irrigated in • The Nkhate scheme is designed to include 50 the dry season, including 75 hectares of maize, 75 percent rice and 50 percent maize and irri- of rice, and 50 of vegetables. gates 233 hectares, according to CODA (2006); 246 hectares, according to Orr and others Abstraction point I.03.03 (1998); 283 hectares, according to the World Bank (2005b); and 243 hectares according to The subbasin between the Tedzani Falls and the the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Develop- Nkula Falls is very small and for that reason it is ment (2004). assumed to contain any significant irrigation.

55 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Figure A1.2. Part of the Muona irrigation scheme Figure A1.3. Tainter gate for the intake for the Muona grown to dry weather rice irrigation scheme

Figure A1.4. Muona main canal taking water from Figure A1.5. Part of Nkhate scheme grown to dry Thangazi River season maize, cassava, and sweet potatoes

Figure A1.6. Weir constructed on the Nkhate River Figure A1.7. Nkhate main canal taking water from the Thangazi River to the scheme

Source: Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development 2004.

Abstraction point I.03.04 Once again, this subbasin is not as developed for irrigation as the Lower Shire, but one can find The Shire River subbasin, situated between the out- some pieces of information in the bibliography. For let of Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa and the Nkula instance, concerning the Machinga and the Zomba Falls, includes approximately the Chiradzulu, districts, there is some information in the Ministry Blantyre, Balaka, Machinga, and part of Zomba and of Agriculture’s Irrigation, Rural Livelihoods and Mangochi districts. Agricultural Development Project:

56 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

• In the Machinga District, the Domasi estate ir- Figure A1.8. Lujeri sugar estate rigates 460 hectares; • In the Zomba District, the Kamwasa irrigation scheme irrigates 187 hectares; • In the Machiga District, the Zumulu, Chibwana, and Naming’azi irrigation schemes irrigate 110, 85, and 75 hectares, respectively.

It is estimated that the current irrigation area for abstraction point I.03.04 is 2,000 hectares, including 750 hectares of maize, 750 of rice, and 500 of vegetables.

Abstraction point I.03.06 Source: www.lujeritea.com. The part of the Songwe River catchment area that is within Malawi, is situated in the Karonga and Chitipa districts. There has been little irrigation • In the Zomba District, the Njala and Segula development in the Malawian part compared with estates irrigate 68 hectares, the Likangala and the Tanzanian part of the subbasin (NORPLAN, Chiriko estates irrigate 422 hectares, and the COWI, DHI, and W&PES 2002). Indeed, according Khanda estate irrigates 75 hectares; to the information gathered for the MSIOA study,

Table A1.10. Current irrigation areas in Malawi: subbasin I.03.01 (ha)

Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops Total Total Irrigation Winter Winter irrigated equipped Scheme rice maize Tea Sugarcane Maize Cotton Soybeans Sorghum Rice area area Nchalo SUCOMA — — — 12,000 — — — — — 12,000 12,000 sugar estate Alumenda SUCOMA sugar — — — 1,000 — — — — — 1,000 1,000 estate Kasinthula — — — 750 — — — — — 750 750 scheme Nkhate scheme 125 125 — — 63 30 23 10 125 500 250 Mlomba — 300 — — 150 72 54 24 600 300 Muona rice 250 250 — — 125 60 45 20 250 1,000 500 scheme Masenjere — 25 — — 13 6 5 2 — 50 25 scheme Chidzimbi scheme — 80 — — 40 19 14 6 — 160 80 Tea estates — — 2,000 — — — — — — 2,000 2,000 Total 375 700 2,000 13,750 390 187 140 62 375 18,060 16,905 Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter maize can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with maize (50 percent), cotton (24 percent), soybeans or equivalent (18 percent), and sorghum (eight percent). The areas cultivated with winter rice can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with rice.

57 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis irrigation development in the Malawian part of the in this part of Malawi (NORPLAN, COWI, DHI, Songwe River Basin represents only 10 hectares near W&PES 2002; Orr and others 1998). They include: the tributaries, the Ibanda stream, of the Kaseye River near Chitipa. • The Wovwe irrigation scheme at Chilumba (4,400 hectares); Abstraction point I.03.7 • The Lufira irrigation scheme (2,100 hectares); • The Hara irrigation scheme (3,800 hectares); The South Rukuru River is the main tributary of • The Bua scheme (220 hectares); and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. Its basin covers the • The Bwanje Valley scheme (800 hectares). Rumphi District in the north and almost the entire Mzimba District in the south. According to the These areas are probably overestimated. Ac- Rumphi District Profile (2008), the irrigated area in cording to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food the Rumphi District is 443 hectares, with very small Security’s Irrigation, Rural Livelihoods and Agri- schemes not exceeding 30 hectares, like the Vuvu cultural Development Project, the lakeshore districts and Mwakalombo irrigation schemes (30 hectares hosts the following irrigation schemes: and five hectares, respectively, in the Hewe Valley). Finally, the initial estimated irrigated area is 1,000 • In the Karonga District, the Wovwe, Lufira, and hectares of equipped area for the abstraction point Hara government managed irrigation schemes I.03.07 (400 hectares of maize, 400 of rice and 200 (365, 216, and 336 hectares, respectively) and of vegetables). the Choranga irrigation scheme (250 hectares); • In the Nkata Bay District, the Limphasa govern- Abstraction point I.03.09 ment managed irrigation scheme (253 hectares)8 and the Chipakazi irrigation scheme (30 hectares); This abstraction point represents the irrigation • In the Nkhotakota District, the Bua and water abstractions from the Malawian part of Lake Mpamantha government managed irrigation Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin, excluding the schemes (196 and 55 hectares, respectively) and abstractions from the Songwe River and the South the Kasitu, Mtandamula, Lifuliza, and Likoa ir- Rukuru River subbasins and those directly from rigation schemes (50, 230, 50, and 100 hectares, Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. Therefore, it notably respectively); and concerns the abstractions in the North Rukuru River, • In the Salima District, the Lifuwu government in the Danger River, and in the larger Bua River Ba- managed irrigation scheme (30 hectares) and the sin. According to numerous sources (including the Mwalawoyera irrigation scheme (120 hectares). DFID Handbook for the Assessment of Catchment Water Demand and Use, 2003), the second-largest Finally, it is assumed that the following tea irrigated estate in Malawi, the Dwanga Sugar Es- and coffee irrigation schemes depend on rainfall tate, covers 6,000 hectares at Dwanga on the central for irrigation: lakeshore plain. The water is abstracted from the small Dwanga River, which is completely closed • The Sable Farming Estate; off during the dry season because of this diversion • The Kavuzi Tea Estate (810 hectares, according to sugarcane fields (Odada and Olago 2003), and it to Hazell and Poulton 2007); is assumed that a complementary amount of water • The Kawalazi Estate (670 hectares, according to is abstracted from Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, so Hazell and Poulton 2007); abstractions for this scheme are part of the I.03.11 • The Ngapani Estate in the eastern banks of Lake abstraction from Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (1,600 hectares, accord- Some large government rice schemes are located ing to Hazell and Poulton 2007).

8 The Limphasa irrigation scheme, built in the 1940s in the Nkata Bay District, was the first irrigation scheme built in Malawi according to FAO Aquastat.

58 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

Table A1.11. Irrigated areas in Malawi: subbasin I.03.09 (ha)

Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops Total Total Winter Winter irrigated equipped Irrigation Scheme rice maize Vegetables Tea Sugarcane Maize Cotton Soybeans Sorghum Rice area area Dwanga Sugar Estate — — — — 6,000 — — — — — 6,000 6,000 Bwanje Valley scheme — 500 300 — — 250 120 90 40 — 1,300 800 Wovwe irrigation scheme 365 — — — — — — — — 365 730 365 (Karonga District) Lufira irrigation scheme 216 — — — — — — — — 216 432 216 (Karonga District) Hara irrigation scheme 336 — — — — — — — — 336 672 336 (Karonga District) Choranga irrigation scheme (Karonga 250 — — — — — — — — 250 500 250 District) Limphasa irrigation scheme (Nkata Bay 253 — — — — — — — — 253 506 253 District) Chipakazi irrigation scheme (Nkata Bay 30 — — — — — — — — 30 60 30 District) Bua irrigation scheme 196 — — — — — — — — 196 392 196 (Nkhotakota District) Mpamantha irrigation scheme (Nkhotakota 55 — — — — — — — — 55 110 55 District) Kasitu irrigation scheme 50 — — — — — — — — 50 100 50 (Nkhotakota District) Mtandamula irrigation scheme (Nkhotakota 230 — — — — — — — — 230 460 230 District) Lifuliza irrigation scheme 50 — — — — — — — — 50 100 50 (Nkhotakota District) Likoa irrigation scheme 100 — — — — — — — — 100 200 100 (Nkhotakota District) Lifuwu irrigation scheme (Salima 30 — — — — — — — — 30 60 30 District) Mwalawoyera irrigation 120 — — — — — — — — 120 240 120 scheme (Salima District) Kavuzi Tea Estate — — — 810 — — — — — — 810 810 Kawalazi Estate — — — 670 — — — — — — 670 670 Others — — — 520 — — — — — — 520 520 Total 2,281 500 300 2,000 6,000 250 120 90 40 1,945 13,526 11,081 Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter maize can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with maize (50 percent), cotton (24 percent), soybeans or equivalent (18 percent), and sorghum (eight percent). The areas cultivated with winter rice can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with rice.

59 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A1.12. Overview of irrigated areas in Malawi (ha)

Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops Total Total Control Abstraction Winter Winter irrigated equipped point Name point rice maize Vegetables Tea Sugarcane Maize Cotton Soybeans Sorghum Rice area area 43 Lake Malawi/ I.03.11 — — — — — — — — — — — — Nyasa 40 Lake Malawi/ I.03.09 2,281 500 2,000 6,000 250 120 90 40 2,281 13,562 10,781 Nyasa subbasin 41 South Rukuru I.03.07 400 400 200 — — 200 96 72 32 400 1,800 1,000 36 Songwe I.03.06 10 — — — — — — — — 10 20 10 45 Liwonde I.03.04 750 750 500 — — 375 180 135 60 750 3,500 2,000 47 Between Nkula Falls and Tedzani I.03.03 — — — — — — — — — — — — Falls 49 Between Tedzani Falls and Kapi- I.03.02 75 75 50 — — 38 18 14 6 75 350 200 chira Falls 51 Lower Shire I.03.01 375 700 — 2,000 13,750 350 168 126 56 375 17,900 16,825 Total 3,891 2,425 750 4,000 19,750 1,213 582 437 194 3,891 37,132 30,816

Abstraction point I.03.11 • The Shire Valley irrigation project, which has already been designed and covers a total area It is assumed that no water is directly abstracted of 42,000 hectares in the Chikwawa and Nsanje from Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa for irrigation, districts. It is proposed that a private-public except for the 6,000 hectares of the Dwanga Sugar partnership approach be used in the implemen- Estate (see abstraction point I.03.09 above). tation of the project. • The medium-scale irrigation development proj- A1.3.5 Identified irrigation development ect, which was identified following a Japan In- projects ternational Cooperation Agency (JICA) funded study, includes 4,740 hectares earmarked for According to the Ministry of Irrigation and Water development and 1,435 hectares for rehabilita- Development (2009a), in line with the vision of the tion. JICA has expressed interest in supporting president of the Green Belt Initiative (box A1.1), the the government in the implementation of the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development plans project. to develop 56,000 hectares of irrigated agriculture • The agricultural infrastructure support proj- in the next five years using various technologies. In ect, which has already been appraised by the addition, existing irrigation schemes will be used African Development Bank and scheduled for to rehabilitate 12,000 hectares. The commercializa- implementation in January 2010. The total area tion of the irrigation schemes will be enhanced by planned for development under the project is the construction of agro-processing and marketing 2,320 hectares. facilities. • The agricultural productivity improvement To support the Green Belt Initiative, some project, which is expected to develop 3,200 projects have already been designed or appraised hectares; government part two resources in preparation for implementation. The notable have already been provided for in the current ones include: budget.

60 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

Box A.1. The Green Belt Initiative in Malawi

The low economic growth in the country is generally explained by low agricultural productivity as a result of overwhelming dependence on rain-fed agriculture, which is characterized by unreliable rainfall combined with periods of dry spells. The agricultural production system is also vulnerable to periodic floods and droughts, which calls for improved water management. This calls for full and supplementary irrigation, thus investments in harvesting and the management of water during periods of plenty for irrigation use during periods of scarcity. This is critical to meeting the food and fiber requirements for a growing population and the supply of raw materials for a developing industry. Agricultural production intensification through irrigation has the potential to double yields and provide two to three harvests per hectare to the smallholder and commercial farmers in a given year. The Irrigation Green Belt Initiative is an intervention that will lead Malawi to the realization of national objectives, considering that water resources are abundant in lakes, perennial rivers, and groundwater. At present, there is very little exploitation of these water resources for irrigation, and therefore the Green Belt Initiative will offer an opportunity exploit the resource to the benefit of development and poverty reduction.

Source: Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development 2009b.

Abstraction point I.03.01 ton, maize, and rice production. Maize is estimated to occupy a net area of 4,037 hectares, while rice During a meeting with the Malawian Department will occupy 1,594 hectares. Cotton is estimated to of Irrigation in June 2008, it was stated that the occupy a net area of 2,000 hectares, while sorghum Nchalo Estate is currently (in the very short-term) is estimated to occupy 309 hectares, with 50 hectares developing an additional 1,200 hectares and also allocated for demonstration sites. The same propor- installing additional pumping capacity from the tions are used to estimate the rest of the areas in Shire for 800 hectares. This extension could be part Phase 2. However, the water intake for this project is of the Shire Valley irrigation project (CODA and situated at Hamilton Rapids, at what appears to be NINHAM SHAND Ltd 2008). The high irrigation the most stable section of the river in this area and potential of the Lower Shire River valley provides a should not be affected by any riverbank movement great opportunity to boost agriculture potential in or erosion. The Hamilton Rapids (see figure A.1.9) particular and the economy in general. The project are located just upstream of the Kapichira Falls, will source water from Shire River to irrigate vast so that this project will not be represented in the areas in the districts of Chikwawa and Nsanje. I.03.01 abstraction point but in the next abstraction Phase 1 of the project covers 17,320 hectares in the point (I.03.02). Chikwawa District. This includes 7,940 hectares of Moreover, in the Chikwawa District, accord- new development, 9,200 hectares under ILLOVO, ing to the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, Rural and 180 hectares under the Kasinthula scheme. Livelihoods and Agricultural Development Project The project area is bounded in the south by the (Mkwende, no date), 685 hectares of specific small or Mwanza River and in the north by the Manjalende medium irrigation potential sites were inventoried, stream, close to Majete Game Reserve. The western which would use water directly from the Shire River, border is marked by the hills and ridges extending including 200 hectares for the Kalima irrigation from Chapananga Road to Mwanza River west of scheme, or 100 hectares for each of the Mbenderana, Tomali. The Shire River forms the eastern bound- Mtendere, and Mlenza irrigation schemes. ary. Phase 2 of the project comprises the southern part of Lower Shire River valley, with a total area Abstraction point I.03.02 of 25,000 hectares, between the Mwanza River and Bangula. As discussed above, the identified projects in the The net irrigable land in Phase 1 will thus be I.03.02 subbasin will principally consist of the Shire 7,940 hectares, designated into areas suitable for cot- Valley irrigation project, which represents:

61 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Figure A1.9. Shire Valley irrigation project location

e PROJECT AREA ir h S NATIONAL CAPITAL Lake Chilwa MAIN ROADS RIVERS MA L A W I INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES Mwanza Lirangwe

Blantyre Phalombe Hamilton Rapids Kapichira Falls TANZANIA Chikwawa M wa nz Thyolo ZAMBIA a Tomali Nchalo Lake MALAWI Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa N’gabu

LILONGWE MOZAMBIQUE Chiromo MOZAMBIQUE S h i Za r m e b MOZAMBIQUE ezi Blantyre Nsanje Area of Chikwawa map

0 20 40 60 IBRD 37957 July 2010 KILOMETERS

Source: CODA 2006.

• In Phase 1: 4,037 hectares of maize, 1,594 of rice, Abstraction point I.03.04 2,000 of cotton, and 309 of sorghum; and • In Phase 2 (longer term scale): 25,000 hectares, The Shire River subbasin, situated between the out- projected to be double that of Phase 1 plus 9,138 let of Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa and the Nkula hectares of sugarcane. Falls, includes approximately the Chiradzulu, Blantyre, Balaka, Machinga, and part of Zomba and This project will also irrigate 9,380 hectares Mangochi districts. of sugarcane currently taken into account in According to the Ministry of Agriculture, abstraction point I.03.01 above. However, in Irrigation, Rural Livelihoods and Agricultural order to simplify, this water transfer will not be Development Project (Mkwende), approximately considered. 2,000 hectares of specific small or medium irrigation potential sites were inventoried in the two districts Abstraction point I.03.03 of Blantyre and Zomba, including 405 hectares for the Likangala irrigation scheme and 605 hectares There is no identified project in the small Shire River of the Bimbi irrigation scheme (both in the Zomba subbasin between Nkula Falls and Tedzani. District). Concerning the Likangala complex, a

62 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

World Bank financed project (World Bank 2005b) 40 percent maize, 20 percent beans, 20 percent veg- will rehabilitate 602 hectares of the Likangala ir- etables, and 20 percent other products. Moreover, rigation scheme. a World Bank financed project (World Bank 2005b) will rehabilitate 466 hectares of the Limphansa Abstraction point I.03.06 irrigation scheme and develop 560 hectares of new small-scale schemes and 340 hectares of new In the Malawian part of the Songwe River basin, mini-scale schemes, which are considered as part the IFAD floodplain project plans to develop 250 of this abstraction point. The breakdown of crops hectares of small-scale irrigation in Karonga ADD during the dry season is 60 percent rice, 30 percent in the next few years (NORPLAN, COWI, DHI, vegetables, and 10 percent maize. Finally, according and W&PES 2002). According to Gibbs (2003) the to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security’s Nkhangwa irrigation scheme (36 hectares; 40 per- Irrigation, Rural Livelihoods and Agricultural De- cent maize, 20 percent beans, 20 percent vegetables, velopment Project (Mkwende, no date): and 20 percent others) is also planned for irrigation in the Malawian part of the Songwe River Basin. • Approximately 552 hectares of potential medium or small irrigation schemes were invento- Abstraction point I.03.07 ried in the Chitipa District, for maize (mainly), beans, and vegetables; There is no project identified in the South Rukuru • Approximately 1,515 hectares of potential medi- subbasin. um or small irrigation schemes were inventoried in the Salima District, for maize (mainly), beans, Abstraction point I.03.09 potatoes, and vegetables (the schemes using water abstracted directly from Lake Malawi/ According to Gibbs (2003b), the following irrigation Niassa/Nyasa are not included; schemes are projected in Northern Malawi (not part • Approximately 172 hectares of potential medi- of the Songwe River Basin): um or small irrigation schemes were inventoried in the Lilongwe District, for maize (mainly), • The Ibuluma irrigation scheme (194 hectares); sweet potatoes, and vegetables; and • The Mabalani irrigation scheme (39 hectares); • Approximately 160 hectares of potential medi- • The Sekwa irrigation scheme (31 hectares); um or small irrigation schemes were inventoried • The Lilezi irrigation scheme (149 hectares); in the Dedza District, for maize (mainly), beans, • The Divwa irrigation scheme (38 hectares); and vegetables. • The Lukyala irrigation scheme (22 hectares); and • The Luwewya irrigation scheme (32 hectares). Abstraction point I.03.11

According to Gibbs (2003), three dams are part There are some identified projects with direct ab- of this project for Central Malawi: stractions from the Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa area, but the only area numbers found concern • The Malizani irrigation scheme (72 hectares); the Salima District, with 1,560 hectares, according • The Mtengezu irrigation scheme (47 hectares); to the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, Rural and Livelihoods and Agricultural Development Project • The Nkhafi irrigation scheme (22 hectares). (Mkwende, no date), including Lipimbi, Nakaleza, Chilumba, Chigolo, Mphere, Pemba, Kabumbu, and According to Gibbs (2003c), this project will Chigolo II (200, 200, 200, 100, 100, 100, 300, and 200 provide 63 hectares of rehabilitated irrigation in six hectares, respectively). schemes in the project area. The breakdown of dry No other area numbers are provided in this season crops for these small-scale irrigation devel- document concerning the other districts’ poten- opment study (SSIDS) schemes is estimated to be tial schemes, but it is possible to foresee similar

63 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 36 200 100 100 100 185 605 600 795 250 709 2,000 7,940 area Total Total 25,000 equipped 58 342 171 171 171 316 500 2,000 1,034 1,026 1,359 1,134 area Total Total 13,571 36,262 Continued on next page Continued irrigated irrigated 40 20 20 20 37 — 121 120 160 — — — Rice 1,594 3,188 8 4 4 4 8 2 25 24 32 20 34 — 242 484 Sorghum 9 9 9 4 18 17 55 55 73 45 77 — 1,251 2,503 Soybeans Wet season crops Wet 5 24 12 12 12 23 74 73 97 60 — — — 102 Cotton 51 25 25 25 47 11 — 154 153 202 125 213 2,543 5,087 Maize — — — — — — — — — — — — 2,000 9,120 crops Perennial Perennial Sugarcane 8 4 4 4 7 7 24 23 31 — 309 618 142 Other 7 — — — — — — — — — — — — 142 Vegetables 50 25 25 25 47 — 152 151 200 — — — 2,000 4,000 cotton Winter Winter 7 — — — — — — — — — — — — 142 Beans Dry season crops 51 51 51 94 14 102 — 308 305 404 250 284 4,037 8,074 maize Winter Winter 40 20 20 20 37 — 121 120 160 — — — rice 1,594 3,188 Winter Winter Project Nchalo Estate extension Estate Nchalo Kalima irrigation scheme Kalima irrigation Mbenderana irrigation irrigation Mbenderana scheme Mtendere irrigation irrigation Mtendere scheme Mlenza irrigation scheme Mlenza irrigation Others Shire Valley irrigation irrigation Valley Shire project Phase 1 Shire Valley irrigation irrigation Valley Shire project Phase 2 Bimbi irrigation schemes Bimbi irrigation Rehabilitation of Likan- Rehabilitation scheme gala irrigation (WB financed) Others IFAD floodplain project IFAD Nkhangwa irrigation irrigation Nkhangwa scheme development SSIDS irrigation schemes SSIDS irrigation point I.03.01 I.03.02 I.03.04 I.03.06 I.03.09 Abstraction Name Lower Shire Lower Between Tedzani Tedzani Between and Kapi - Falls Falls chira Between Nkula Tedzani and Falls Falls Songwe Lake Malawi/ Lake Niassa/Nyasa point Table A1.13. Identified projects A1.13. Identified (ha) in Malawi Table 51 49 45 36 40 Control Control

64 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions 466 560 340 200 200 200 100 100 100 300 200 2,925 3,600 area Total Total 47,911 equipped 792 952 578 340 340 340 170 170 170 510 340 4,973 6,120 area Total Total 73,909 irrigated irrigated 280 336 204 — — — — — — — — — — Rice 6,141 4 4 3 6 6 6 11 11 11 17 11 164 202 1,346 Sorghum 8 6 10 25 25 25 13 13 13 38 25 369 454 5,149 Soybeans 8 Wet season crops Wet 11 13 34 34 34 17 17 17 50 34 491 605 1,859 Cotton 23 28 17 70 70 70 35 35 35 70 105 1,024 1,260 Maize 11,503 — — — — — — — — — — — — — crops 11,120 Perennial Perennial Sugarcane 40 40 40 20 20 20 60 40 585 720 2,765 Other 20 20 20 10 10 10 30 20 140 168 102 293 360 1,351 Vegetables — — — — — — — — — — — — — cotton 6,676 Winter Winter 20 20 20 10 10 10 30 20 — — 293 — 360 942 Beans Dry season crops 47 56 34 60 60 60 120 120 120 180 120 1,755 2,160 maize Winter Winter 18,916 280 336 204 — — — — — — — — — — rice 6,141 Winter Winter (continued) Project Rehabilitation of Lim - Rehabilitation scheme phansa irrigation (WB financed) Development of new Development small-scale irrigation schemes (WB financed) Development of new mini- new of Development schemes scale irrigation (WB financed) Other potential medium or Other potential schemes small irrigation Lipimbi irrigation scheme Lipimbi irrigation Nakaleza irrigation irrigation Nakaleza scheme Chilumba irrigation irrigation Chilumba scheme Chigolo irrigation scheme irrigation Chigolo Mphere irrigation scheme irrigation Mphere Pemba irrigation scheme irrigation Pemba Kabumbu irrigation Kabumbu irrigation scheme Chigolo 2 irrigation 2 irrigation Chigolo scheme Other potential medium or Other potential schemes small irrigation point I.03.11 Abstraction Name Lake Malawi/ Lake Niassa/Nyasa point Table A1.13. Identified projects A1.13. Identified (ha) in Malawi Table 43 Total Control Control : During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter maize can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with maize (50 percent), cotton (24 percent), soybeans or equivalent (18 percent), and sorghum (eight percent). The areas cultivated with cultivated areas The percent). (eight and sorghum (18 percent), or equivalent soybeans (24 percent), cotton (50 percent), with supplementary with maize can irrigation be cultivated maize with winter cultivated season, the areas : During the wet Note sorghum). four percent and soybeans, 25 percent rice, 20 percent maize, (51 percent project is different irrigation Valley Shire the Lower for season crops of wet breakdown The with supplementary with rice. can irrigation be cultivated rice winter

65 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis developments in the other parts of the Lake Mala- to growth. Reforms and measures under this pillar wi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin, so that finally, around target (a) macroeconomic management; (b) improv- 5,000 hectares were considered as potential medium ing the business environment; (c) development of or small irrigation schemes, for cultivating mainly the financial system; (d) promoting the creation maize, but also potatoes, sweet potatoes, beans, of a strong, dynamic, competitive, and innovative and vegetables. private sector; (e) promoting the priority sectors, broadening the business class, and creating jobs (including in agriculture and agrarian services, a1.4 Mozambique natural resource management, industry, fisheries, tourism, mineral extraction, oil exploration, and A1.4.1 Agriculture and irrigation several employment creation programs); (f) improv- development policies ing the integration of Mozambique into the regional and international economy; and (g) promoting From 1996 to 1997, the government of Mozambique the integration and consolidation of the domestic prepared a set of guidelines for the agricultural and market, including road and water transport, ports fisheries sectors. The Política Agrária e Estratégias and railways, bridges, marketing systems, and the de Implementação (PAEI) and Política Pesqueira e regulation of internal trade. Estratégias de Implementação (PPEI) declared that PARPA’s main pillars for agriculture are em- agricultural and fishery activities should contrib- bedded in policy and strategy documents in the ute to Mozambique’s development objectives in agriculture and fishery sectors. These documents four main areas: (i) food security, (ii) sustainable are PAEI, Visão do Sector Agrário em Moçambique economic development, (iii) reduction of the unem- (VSAM), and ProAgri 2 (2005 to 2009). The VSAM ployment rate, and (iv) poverty reduction. The PAEI was developed in 2003, prior to the consultation and set the context for the development of the first phase planning process for the formulation of the second of the National Agricultural Programme (ProAgri phase of the ProAgri. It describes in detail Mozam- 1) in 1998 and the PPEI led to the formulation of bique’s agricultural sector and provides some direc- the Plano de Desenvolvimento do Sector Pesqueiro tion toward its long-term development. The VSAM (Development Plan for Fishery) in 2001. seeks “an agricultural sector that is integrated, The government of Mozambique prepared the sustainable, and competitive, diversified, a basis Plano de Acção para a Redução da Pobreza Absoluta for welfare and economic accumulation, [and] ar- II, PARPA 2 (second Poverty Reduction Support ticulated through value-added chains with broadly Strategy). PARPA 2, approved by the cabinet in shared benefits.” The VSAM defined the following September 2006, covers the period from 2006 to 2009 critical pillars for agricultural sector development: and continues many of the objectives laid out in the (a) input and output markets, (b) financial services, first PARPA (2001 to 2005) but with the next stage (c) technology, and (d) access to natural resources. of results largely expected through investments This vision guided the development of the second in rural areas and second-stage reforms. PARPA 2 phase of the ProAgri 2. also adds focus on key crosscutting objectives that Certain documents from Gabinete do Plano de require coordination across key sectors. Desenvolvimento da Região do Zambeze (the Office Unlike the sectoral approach in PARPA 1, of Development Planning for the Zambezi Region) PARPA 2 uses a pillar approach based on the five- were used, such as Oportunides de Investimentos year government program. PARPA 2 has three main no Vale do Zambeze (Investment Opportunities in pillars, a foundation of macroeconomic and public the Zambezi River Valley), dated November 2008, financial management, and eight crosscutting top- to build the identified project scenarios. ics. Pillar 1 is about governance, Pillar 2 is about Mozambique’s territory covers the lower part of human capital. Pillar 3 concentrated on economic the Zambezi River Basin, both upstream and down- development: This pillar addresses improving the stream of the confluence with the Shire River coming investment climate and removing key constraints from Malawi and Tanzania. The Mozambican part

66 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

A1.4.3 Irrigation sector – current situation Table A1.14. Irrigation abstraction points in Mozambique The current situation of irrigation development in the Mozambican part of the Zambezi River Basin Irrigation Control abstraction is quite well known due to the 2003 study from the point Name point Direcção Nacional de Hidráulica Agrícola (National 27 Lower Luangwa I.05.04 Directorate for Agricultural Hydraulics). 29 Cahora Bassa I.02.02 30 Between Cahora Bassa and Mphanda I.02.03 Abstraction point I.05.04 Nkuwa No irrigation scheme was inventoried in this small 33 Tete I.02.04 western part of Mozambique. 32 Luenha I.02.06 52 Upstream Zambezi Delta I.01.01 Abstraction point I.02.02 53 Zambezi Delta I.01.02 Almost no irrigation was developed using water directly from Lake Cahora Bassa or from small in- of the basin has a huge irrigation potential, with fluents. Three small irrigation schemes take waters available water from the regulated large upstream from small lake inlets in the Distrito de Mágoè that lakes and reservoirs (Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, produce mainly vegetables (Direcção Nacional de Cahora Bassa, and Kariba). Hidráulica Agrícola 2003):

A1.4.2 Area in the water allocation model • The Nascente Cacondua, Mphende irrigation scheme (five hectares); The modeled irrigation abstractions in Mozambique • The Guivite William irrigation scheme (one fall within the Zambezi Delta subbasin (1), the Tete hectare); and subbasin (2), and to a lesser extent, the Luangwa • The Sistema de Cegonhas irrigation scheme subbasin (5). The model incorporates seven control (four hectares). points, one each for the following: Abstraction point I.02.03 • Irrigation in the Mozambican part of the lower Luangwa River valley; Almost no irrigation was inventoried in the • Irrigation using water directly from Lake Ca- subbasin between Cahora Bassa and Mphanda hora Bassa; Nkuwa. Two hectares of irrigated beans and five • Irrigation in the small Zambezi River subbasin hectares of irrigated fruits use water from the between the Cahora Bassa Dam and the pro- N’Sanagoè and the Maroeira rivers (Direcção jected Mphanda Nkuwa Dam; Nacional de Hidráulica Agrícola 2003), as do three • Irrigation in the subbasin between the projected hectares of the Regadio Misongo in the Maravia Mphanda Nkuwa Dam and the confluence with District. the Shire River, excluding the Luenha River subbasin; Abstraction point I.02.04 • Irrigation in the Luenha River subbasin; • Irrigation in the Zambezi River subbasin, up- The following irrigation schemes were inventoried stream of the Zambezi Delta entrance; and in this part of the Zambezi River Basin (Direcção • Irrigation schemes inside the Zambezi Delta. Nacional de Hidráulica Agrícola 2003):

One control point (32) is shared with Zimbabwe • Approximately 100 hectares of small-scale irri- and one other (27) with Zambia. gation schemes (regadio de classe A), especially

67 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

in the Macnaga, Chiuta, Moatize, Tsangano, and • It is worth noting that the abandoned Lembane Angonia districts); scheme in the Chemba District (200 hectares • Scheme of Kapanga in the Moatize District, with equipped) and the 2,300 hectares of the former 40 hectares of vegetables; scheme known as Empresa Estatal de Caia. • Scheme of Associação de Camponeses de M´padue in the Moatize District, with 27 hect- Abstraction point I.02.06 ares of maize and vegetables; • Scheme of União das Cooperativas Agro- The outlet of the Luenha River subbasin is situated Pecuárias do vale de Nhartanda, with 24 hect- in Mozambique, so that there is a small part of the ares of maize and vegetables; Luenha River subbasin in Mozambique where ir- • Scheme of Centro Provincial de Formação rigation is possible. Agrária de Tete (CPFAT), with 12 hectares of The following irrigation schemes (beans and maize and vegetables; and maize) were inventoried in this part of the Zam- • 115 hectares irrigated for a total of 1,025 hectares bezi River Basin (Direcção Nacional de Hidráulica of regadios de classe B (more than 50 hectares) in Agrícola 2003): the Tsangano District, with maize and potatoes (batata reno).

Figure A1.10. Pumping station in the Zambezi River, Figure A1.11. Plot from the scheme União das for the Mpadue irrigation scheme Cooperativas Agro-Pecuárias do vale de Nhartanda

Figure A1.12. Pumping station in the Zambezi River, Figure A1.13. Abandoned infrastructure of the for the CPFAT irrigation scheme Lambane scheme

Source: Direcção Nacional de Hidráulica Agrícola 2003.

68 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

• Associação Agrícola Múdue, 15 hectares, in the there are at least three functioning irrigation Changara District; schemes in the Zambezi Delta: the Regadio de • Asociação Agrícola Tatchira, seven hectares, in Matilde-Chacuma (50 hectares of maize and rice the Changara District; in the Chinde District), the Regadio de Sombo • Associação Agrícola Nhazue, 15 hectares, in the (250 hectares of rice), and the very recent Rega- Changara District; dio de Thewe 1 and 2 (145 hectares). • Associação Agrícola Cuve, 10 hectares, in the • Commercial surface irrigation. According to Beil- Changara District; fuss and Brown (2006), “the total extent of sugar • Associação Agrícola Tinachinanga, 7.5 hectares, production fields is currently less than [that in the Changara District; which] occurred prior to the civil war. Currently, • José Fidelis de Sousa, three hectares, in the Marromeu [the south bank of the Zambezi Delta Changara District; and adjacent uplands] supports about 12,000 • Propriedade da Igreja Católica, 1.3 hectares, in hectares of irrigated agriculture, with sugarcane the Changara District; as the main crop (10,000 hectares [Sena Sugar • Silva Gomes, one hectare, in the Changara Estate]) and about 2,000 hectares [of] other cash District; and crops [vegetables, fruit trees, rice and other • Bunga, 20 hectares of vegetables, in the Guro cash crops like tobacco and cotton].” Among District. the 2,000 hectares of other cash crops could be the Sistema de Irrigaçao de Chinde, but no in- Abstraction point I.01.01 formation was found about it, except a general localization on a map (Gabinete do Plano de Different types of irrigation are present in the Zam- Desenvolvimento da Região do Zambeze 2007) bezi Delta. and the fact that it is currently facing problems with accessibility and infrastructures. According • Recession irrigation. In addition to the reces- to Thá and Seager (2008), less than half of the sion irrigation, it is also possible to find some planted area of Sena factory is irrigated today. schemes for supplementary rice irrigation during the dry season in the Delta. For instance (Di- It is estimated that the irrigation area is cur- recção Nacional de Hidráulica Agrícola 2003), rently 7,000 hectares in the Zambezi Delta, including

Figure A1.14. Floating pumping station installed on Figure A1.15. Localization of the outlet of the main a canal, taking water from the Zambezi River, Sena canal, probably not functioning well, Sena Sugar Sugar Estate Estate

Source: Direcção Nacional de Hidráulica Agrícola 2003.

69 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

5,000 hectares of Sena company sugarcane and 2,000 operated at their full potential capacity, including hectares equally shared among sugarcane, vegeta- Thewe 1 (95 hectares of 200 hectares), Thewe 2 (50 bles, and fruits (tobacco and cotton being cultivated hectares of 1,000 hectares), and Sombo/Chinde (250 during the wet season). This hypothesis holds even of 1,000 hectares). if the Sena Sugar Estate, situated at the entrance of the Delta, is considered as part of the I.01.01 sub- A1.4.4 Identified irrigation development basin. Indeed, the distinction between upstream and projects downstream of the Zambezi River entrance could be helpful for analyzing the impact of irrigation on Abstraction point I.05.04 the Zambezi Delta. For this purpose, the Sena Sugar Estate should be considered upstream because the No irrigation project was found in this small eastern water abstracted will not benefit flood expansion part of Mozambique. in the Delta. Abstraction point I.02.02 Abstraction point I.01.02 The main irrigation project directly linked to the The Mozambican districts covering the Zambezi Cahora Bassa Reservoir is the building of the 7,500 Delta are mainly Chinde, Mopeia (Zambézia Prov- hectare irrigation scheme of Vale de Chitima at the ince), Marromeu, and Cheringoma (Sofala Prov- outlet of the Cahora Bassa Dam (Gabinete do Plano ince). As described above, it is estimated that 2,000 de Desenvolvimento da Região do Zambeze 2007). hectares are irrigated in the Delta, equally shared The consultant assumes that the irrigated crops will among sugarcane, vegetables, and fruits (tobacco be vegetables (50 percent) and beans (50 percent). and cotton being cultivated during the wet sea- However, the consultant has not found any calendar son). Many schemes in the Zambezi Delta are not for this project, so it will be regarded as long-term

Table A1.15. Current irrigation areas in Mozambique (ha)

Irrigation Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops Total Total Control abstraction Winter irrigated equipped point Name point maize Beans Vegetables Citrus Sugarcane Maize Cotton Soybeans Sorghum area area 29 Cahora Bassa I.02.02 — — 10 — — — — — — 10 10 30 Between Cahora Bassa and I.02.03 2 — 8 — 1 — — — 12 10 Mphanda Nkuwa 33 Tete I.02.04 95 — 170 50 — 48 23 17 8 410 315 32 Luenha I.02.06 — 60 — — — 30 14 11 5 140 80 52 Upstream of the Zambezi I.01.01 — — — 5,000 — — — — 5,000 5,000 Delta 53 Zambezi I.01.02 — — 666 666 666 — — — — 1,998 1,998 Delta Total 95 62 866 724 5,666 79 38 28 13 7,570 7,413 Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter crops can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with maize (50 percent), cotton (24 percent), soybeans or equivalent (18 percent), and sorghum (8 percent).

70 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

Figure A1.16. Chitima 1 irrigation project

IBRD 37958 July 2010 MAIN CHANNELS EQUIPPED IRRIGATION AREAS PUMPING STATION 2 Zambe zi RESERVOIRS ALONG THE MAIN CANAL (N-S AND W-E) Songo MAIN ROAD RIVERS Lake EE1 Cahora Bassa Maroeira Chicoa EE2

R1 R2 R3 R4 R5

Chitima

M u z e

D o o m o o b o a d e 0 5 10 T he hacon eze N od hir KILOMETERS G

Source: Gabinete do Plano de Desenvolvimento da Região do Zambeze 2007.

and included in the high-level irrigation scenario verde (green revolution), which targets poverty rather than in this section on identified projects. reduction, food self-sufficiency, and the change from subsistence agriculture to commercial agri- Abstraction point I.02.03 culture. Specific irrigation plans were identified in the stretch of the Zambezi River Basin between the According to the Direcção Nacional de Extensão projected Mphanda Nkuwa Dam and the conflu- Agrária (the National Directorate of Agrarian Ser- ence with the Shire River (information obtained at vices, DNSA), numerous small irrigation schemes meeting with Gabinete do Plano de Desenvolvi- are projected to be rehabilitated or built in Mozam- mento da Região do Zambeze, November 2008). bique, but no information was found on the precise A large irrigation scheme project and numerous concerned areas/crops, with the exception (for this small multi-purpose dams to be built for irrigation abstraction point I.02.3) of the projected irrigation were identified in the part of the Basin between the scheme of Lipaque (150 hectares of maize and beans) projected Mphanda Nkuwa Dam and the confluence in the Chiuta District. with the Shire River:

Abstraction point I.02.04 • The M’condezi-Revubue irrigation scheme (6,000 hectares, mainly wheat); and There are many irrigation projects in Mozambique • 5,000 hectares of multi-purpose dam projects that will contribute to an agriculture production (mainly wheat), including the rehabilitation of increase and the concretization of the revolução the Lembane scheme in the Chemba District

71 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

(2,300 hectares) and the rehabilitation of the irrigation projects in this area, which are assumed regadios de classe B (more than 50 hectares) in to be extensions of the existing Chinde scheme the Tsangano District. (located nearby):

Abstraction point I.02.06 • The Luabo Chinde irrigation scheme (17,000 hectares of rice); There is a project identified in the Mozambican part • The rehabilitation of Sombo Chinde irrigation of the Luenha River basin: the Luenha irrigation scheme (750 hectares); scheme, with 8,000 irrigated hectares (information • The rehabilitation of Thewe 1 (105 hectares) and obtained at meeting with Gabinete do Plano de Thewe 2 (950 hectares); and Desenvolvimento da Região do Zambeze, Novem- • The Ilha Salia Chinde irrigation scheme (4,000 ber 2008). hectares of rice).

Abstraction point I.01.01 Some of these areas may be included in the forthcoming PROIRRI Sustainable Irrigation Devel- According to Beilfuss and Brown (2006), “the target opment IDA-funded project, which is expected to situation is difficult to define but, under present improve irrigation systems for an aggregated area conditions with the sugar mill operating at full of around 5,000 hectares in the Provinces of Sofala potential, we would expect development up to and Manica. 20,000 hectares of irrigated sugarcane. We expect an increase of irrigated land on the order of 6.0 percent per year, which would reflect healthy economic A1.5 Namibia development for the rural sector with a growth rate similar to the figures observed during recent years.” A1.5.1 Agriculture and irrigation Moreover, Gabinete do Plano de Desenvolvi- development policies mento da Região do Zambeze plans different sugarcane irrigation projects in this area; these are Development policy and the national agenda are assumed to be extensions of the existing Sena Sugar set out in Vision 2030 and the national develop- Estate (located nearby): ment plans (NDP). The agricultural sector’s overall objective as defined in the NDP 2 (2001–06) mission • The Urema-Zangue irrigation scheme (15,000 statement is to contribute to the improvement of hectares); levels of household and national food security and • The Mandua irrigation scheme (10,000 hectares); to create employment opportunities. According to and NDP 2, this mission is to be accomplished by achiev- • The Inhangoma irrigation scheme (30,000 ing the following immediate objectives: hectares). • Increase agricultural production at national and Therefore, the identified projects taken into household levels; consideration in the I.01.1 subbasin, just upstream • Improve the agricultural balance of trade by of the Zambezi Delta, represent a total of 55,000 raising the volume and value of agricultural hectares of irrigated sugarcane. exports and reducing those of imports; • Promote complementary farmer livelihood op- Abstraction point I.01.02 portunities; and • Increase the in-country value added to agricul- According to the DNSA, there is a need for reha- tural output. bilitating and/or extending the Chinde irrigation scheme. Moreover Gabinete do Plano de Desen- In addition to the sector objectives spelled out volvimento da Região do Zambeze plans different in NDP 2, Namibia’s agricultural development is

72 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions 950 105 150 — 4,000 2,300 8,000 2,700 6,000 area Total Total 17,000 30,000 10,000 15,000 103,705 equipped 210 300 — 1,900 8,000 4,600 5,400 area 34,000 30,000 10,000 15,000 12,000 12,000 Total Total 144,660 irrigated irrigated 950 105 — — — — — — — — — 4,000 Rice 17,000 22,055 12 — — — — — 184 320 — 216 — 480 — 1,512 Sorghum 27 — — — — — 414 720 — 486 — — 1,080 3,402 Soybeans Wet season crops Wet 36 — — — — — 552 960 — 648 — — 1,440 4,536 Cotton 75 — — — — — — — — 1,150 2,000 1,350 3,000 Maize 9,450 — — — — — — — — — — crops 30,000 10,000 15,000 55,000 Perennial Perennial Sugarcane — — — — — — — — — — — — 4,000 7,750 Vegetables 950 105 — — — — — — — — — 4,000 rice 17,000 Winter Winter 22,055 75 — — — — — — — — — — — 4,000 Beans 7,825 Dry season crops 75 75 — — — — — — — — — — — — maize Winter Winter — — — — — — — — — — 2,300 2,700 6,000 Wheat 11,000 Project Rehabilitation of Thewe 2 Thewe of Rehabilitation scheme irrigation Rehabilitation of Thewe 1 Thewe of Rehabilitation scheme irrigation Ilha Salia Chinde irrigation Ilha Salia irrigation Chinde scheme Luabo Chinde irrigation irrigation Chinde Luabo scheme Sena Sugar Extension - scheme Inhangoma irrigation Sena Sugar Extension - scheme Mandua irrigation Luenha irrigation scheme irrigation Luenha Sena Sugar Extension - irrigation Urema-Zangue scheme Rehabilitation of Lembane of Lembane Rehabilitation scheme irrigation Dam projects (multiple use) M’condezi-Revubue irrigation irrigation M’condezi-Revubue scheme Lipaque irrigation scheme Lipaque irrigation n/a point I.01.02 I.02.06 I.01.01 I.02.04 I.02.03 I.02.02 Irrigation Irrigation abstraction Zambezi Delta Zambezi Luenha Zambezi Upstream Delta Tete Between Cahora Bassa Between Cahora and Mphanda Nkuwa Name Cahora Bassa Cahora Total 53 32 52 33 30 Table A1.16. Identified irrigation projects (hectares) irrigation A1.16. Identified in Mozambique Table Control point 29 : No schemes were found for control point 27 (I.05.04). point control for found schemes were : No Note with cultivated areas The percent). (eight and sorghum (18 percent), or equivalent soybeans (24 percent), cotton (50 percent), with supplementary with maize can irrigation be cultivated crops with winter cultivated season, the areas : During the wet Note season. during the wet with rice can be cultivated rice winter

73 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis also guided by the National Agricultural Policy of cess in the Caprivi Strip, which faces many land 1995, the objectives of which are to: tenure issues. Some large irrigation projects have even been abandoned today, including the Caprivi • Achieve growth rates and stability in farm sugar irrigation project and several joint projects incomes, agricultural productivity, and produc- with neighboring Zambia. tion levels that are higher than the population growth rate; A1.5.2 Area in the water allocation model • Ensure food security and improve nutritional status; The Namibian part of the Zambezi River Basin • Create and sustain viable livelihood and em- mainly concerns one subbasin, namely the Cuando/ ployment opportunities in rural areas; Chobe subbasin (8). Irrigation abstractions in Na- • Improve the profitability of agriculture and mibia are therefore modeled through one control increase investment in agriculture; point which is also shared with Zambia. • Contribute to the improvement of the balance As noted earlier, this abstraction point is located of payments; in the Cuando/Chobe subbasin (control point 7). • Expand vertical integration and domestic value However, as this is a ‘dead branch’ of the system, added for agricultural products; the abstraction point is modeled under control • Promote the sustainable utilization of the na- point 8. tion’s land and other natural resources; and • Contribute to balanced regional rural develop- A1.5.3 Irrigation sector – current situation ment based on comparative advantage. The Ministry of Environment and Tourism of These objectives are to be pursued through the Namibia (2000) mentions that very little irrigation following strategies as proposed in a 2003 review activity is taking place at the time of the MSIOA of the National Agricultural Policy: study. This was confirmed during the national consultation on November 2, 2009. There are only • Create an enabling macroeconomic and insti- two schemes under irrigation in the Caprivi region tutional setting; at the moment: the Kalimbeza rice project (total • Refocus government support toward communal field area: 193 hectares; total area currently under area farmers and vulnerable groups; irrigation: 90 hectares) and Katima Farm (total area • Promote a free-market environment and bor- under irrigation at the moment: 30 hectares; future der/opportunity cost pricing; plan: to extend it to 400 hectares). Kalimbeza rice • Pursue diversification to nontraditional crops and value adding; • Advance human resource development; • Achieve privatization of support services to Table A1.17. Irrigation abstraction points in farmers; and Namibia • Increase community/farmer participation in Control point Name Irrigation abstraction point resources management. 7 (8) Caprivi I.08.03 In a joint venture of government, commercial, and smallholder farmers and through aquaculture development schemes, a Green Scheme policy was Table A1.18. Current irrigation areas in Namibia (ha) updated in 2008 to develop the irrigation areas and Irrigation stimulate the use of communal lands. Formal irriga- Control abstraction tion is not developed extensively in the Namibian point Name point Rice Vegetables Total part of the Zambezi River Basin. Water availability 7 (8) Caprivi I.08.03 100 20 120 does not support land availability and market ac- Note: During the wet season, it is assumed that there is no supplementary irrigation.

74 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

Figure A1.17. Caprivi sugar project area

Za ZAMBIA ZAMBIA mbezi

Katima Mulilo

Kalimbeza

NAMIBIA ALTERNATIVE 1 SUGAR ESTATE AREA SUGAR MILL SITE ALTERNATIVE 2.1 ALTERNATE CANAL ROUTES DYKE NATIONAL ROAD ALTERNATIVE 2.2 Bukalo MAIN ROAD OTHER ROADS/TRACKS RIVERS C3 FLOODED AREA/MARSH INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES

A C2

C1 we E1 ng ro Ka B

Muyako Lake Liambezi Ngoma Bridge E2 Cho be BOTSWANA

BOTSWANA IBRD 37960 July 2010

Source: Afridev Associates 2004a.

project is dealing with rice, and Katima Farm is There is one major project in this part of the involved in jatropha production for biofuel and car- Basin, the Caprivi project, but it is unlikely that rying out some test trials on bananas and various this project would be implemented in the short vegetables. According to FAO (1997), there were or medium term. This project is well detailed around 7,000 jatropha of irrigation areas in the in the Afridev Associates study (2004b) and in Namibian part of the Basin, which are probably the previous Schaffer Feasibility Study which included in the recession irrigation of the Lake concludes that it would be feasible to develop Liambezi floodplain. around 10,000 hectares of sugar, with a further 5,000 hectares of sugar (40 percent) or other crops A1.5.4 Identified irrigation development (60 percent) around Lake Liambezi, as well as a projects sugar mill. The breakdown of crops is also given in these studies. This project could be associ- According to meetings with officers from the Min- ated with the Lake Liambezi Recharge project istry of Agriculture and Rural Development of (for environmental uses), which could inundate Namibia, there are no major projects using waters approximately 6,000 hectares of lands that are from the Zambezi River Basin because of land ten- currently cultivated in the lake and a further ure issues, tribal conflicts, and market accessibility. 3,000 hectares that are situated in the floodplain Therefore, only 300 additional hectares should be (the lake recharge project is not considered in the considered for a near future development. modeling in the MSIOA study).

75 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A1.19. Identified projects in Namibia: Irrigation areas (ha)

Control Irrigation Total irrigated Total equipped point Name abstraction point Project Wheat Vegetables area area 7 (8) Caprivi I.08.03 New small/medium 150 150 300 300 irrigation schemes Note: During the wet season, it is assumed that there is no supplementary irrigation.

A1.6 Tanzania ing its role to policy, legislation, regulation, and oversight. The strategy focuses on productive and A1.6.1 Agriculture and irrigation gainful agriculture, where subsistence agriculture development policies would be replaced by profitable agriculture, and where both the spotlight and resources switch from The government of Tanzania’s principal goals are public institutions to farmers and agribusiness. sustainable economic growth and poverty allevia- The Agricultural Sector Development Pro- tion. The government has sought to achieve this gramme (ASDP) is the operational framework through a series of policies and strategies designed response to ASDS. Completed in 2003, the ASDP to establish an enabling environment for sustainable framework stresses the need to change the way development. These include: things are done in the sector (“business as un- usual”). ASDP is a long-term process designed to • The Tanzania Vision 2025 of 1995; forge connections among both the Agricultural Sec- • The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper of 2000 tor Lead Ministries themselves and the government and follow-up National Strategy for Growth; and empowered farmers by using a demand-driven, • The Tanzania Assistance Strategy of 2002; field-based planning process. In addition, the pro- • The Rural Development Strategy of 2002; gram proposes to expand the type of support to • The Agricultural Sector Development Strategy include both public- and private-sector service pro- (ASDS) of 2001; viders. In 2002, the National Irrigation Master Plan • The National Irrigation Master Plan of 2002; identified a total irrigation development potential of • The National Irrigation Policy of 2007; and 29.4 million hectares, of which 2.3 million hectares • The National Water Sector Development Strat- are classified as high potential, 4.8 million hectares egy (NWSDS), 2006 to 2015. as medium potential, and 22.3 million hectares as low potential. However, only 274,000 hectares were The ASDS, formulated in 2001, is closely linked under improved irrigated agriculture as of 2007. to both the rural development and poverty reduc- According to the National Strategy for Growth tion strategies. It has established a framework for and Reduction of Poverty (NSGRP), which is the improving agricultural productivity and profit- national organizing framework focusing on eco- ability to achieve improved farm incomes, reduced nomic growth and poverty reduction, the rate of rural poverty, and greater food security. The specific growth is expected to reach 10 percent by 2010. targets are (a) reducing the proportion of the rural The NSGRP targets are in line with the aspiration population below the basic poverty line to 20.4 per- of the Tanzania Development Vision 2025 for high cent by 2010, (b) reducing the percentage of rural and shared growth; high-quality livelihoods; peace, food poor to 11.6 percent by 2010, and (c) achieving stability and unity; good governance; high-quality a growth rate in agriculture of at least 5.2 percent. education; and international competitiveness. At the core of ASDS is a sector-wide approach Tanzania has put the highest priority on the that changes the functions of central government development of the agricultural sector as a means from an executive role to a normative one by limit- to meet both NSGRP targets and the MDGs. How-

76 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions ever, the volatility of rainfall continues to represent • Empower beneficiaries for effective participa- a major constraint on agricultural productivity and tion at all levels in irrigation planning, imple- rural livelihoods. The country’s overall poverty levels mentation, and management; have accordingly fallen only modestly between 1993 • Strengthen technical support services, develop and 2003, from 41 percent to 39 percent in the rural and disseminate new practices, innovations, areas, where most households depend on agriculture, and technologies; and compared with urban areas, where poverty levels • Mainstream crosscutting and cross-sectoral is- have fallen from 28 percent to 18 percent. At this rate sues such as gender, HIV/AIDS, environment, of change, Tanzania is highly unlikely to achieve the health, land, and water in irrigation develop- millennium targets of reducing food insecurity and ment. halving poverty by 2015 without setting and implementing appropriate strategies to curb the situation. The NWSDS, 2006 to 2015, was developed to Irrigation development is seen as an important support the realignment of other water related key strategy to achieving set targets and goals. Sustain- sectoral policies, such as energy, irrigation, industry, able irrigation development is a basis for improved mining, and the environment. The NWSDS sets out food security and poverty alleviation. It includes how the ministry responsible for water will imple- the provision of irrigation infrastructure, such as ment the national water policy to achieve the targets institutional arrangements and capacity building, of the National Strategy for Growth and Poverty both technical and financial, that is consistent with Reduction (MKUKUTA) targets. This will, in turn, irrigated area expansion targets and intensification. guide the formulation of the ministry’s Harmonized Additional elements of sustainable development in- National Water Sector Development Plan and the clude responding to the new decentralized, demand- Water Sector Development Programme as inputs driven, service-oriented paradigm and engaging into the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework private-sector participation in investment and service financial-planning process. delivery. Notwithstanding the irrigation subsector’s The Zambezi River Basin in Tanzania comprises high strategic potential and the priority given to its eight districts: Rungwe, Ileje, Makete, Kyela, Mb- expansion, it faces considerable challenges, including inga, Ludewa, Mbozi, and Mbeya Rural. Tanzania inadequate funding, inadequate institutional capac- considers this part of the Basin to have great po- ity, inappropriate technology, and land insecurity. tential for irrigation, as reflected in table A1.20. The National Irrigation Policy (2007) aims to That potential is relatively well exploited today in enhance crop productivity and profitability through comparison with other countries in the Zambezi irrigated agriculture to ensure sustainable food se- River Basin. curity and poverty reduction. Its goals are to A1.6.2 Area in the water allocation model • Accelerate investment in the irrigation subsector by both public and private sector players; The Tanzanian part of the Zambezi River Basin • Ensure that irrigation development is techni- encompasses one subbasin, namely the Shire River cally feasible, economically viable, socially and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (3). Irrigation desirable, and environmentally sustainable; abstractions in Tanzania are modeled through four • Optimize, intensify, and diversify irrigated crop control points, including three of which are shared production to supplement rain-fed crop produc- with Malawi. tion effectively; • Ensure demand driven, productive, and prof- A1.6.3 Irrigation sector – current situation itable irrigation development models that are responsive to market opportunities; After meeting the Ministry of Water and Irrigation • Strengthen institutional capacity at all levels (November 2009), the current area under irriga- for the planning, implementation, and manage- tion. Thanks to these meetings, the current area ment of irrigation development; under irrigation for the Zambezi River Basin in

77 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

currently and that the other half is deemed to be Table A1.20. Irrigation abstraction points in rehabilitated for irrigation. Tanzania Some additional information was found in Irrigation socioeconomic profiles for the Ruvuma, Iringa, Control abstraction and Mbeya regions, including the fact that ap- point Name point proximately 1,000 hectares were irrigated in the 34 Rumakali I.03.12 Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin part of the 36 Songwe I.03.05 model. Moreover, there are two irrigated Tea Es- 40 Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin I.03.08 tates (approximately 60 hectares) in this part of the 43 Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin I.03.10 Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin. These are the Luponde Tea Estate on the Lupali River, and the Mufindi Tea Company on the Masigira River.

đ Tanzania could be estimated at 23,200 hectares. A1.6.4 Identified irrigation development Most of these are situated in the Songwe River projects subbasin (15,000 hectares), mainly under smallholder farmers. The cropping pattern is mostly According to the director of irrigation and technical paddy rice (approximately 85 percent). Other services, the potential areas are as follows: crops such as maize, tomatoes, and tea cover the remaining 15 percent. These irrigated hectares • High-potential irrigation area: 50,473 hectares; are higher in number than the estimate found in • Medium-potential irrigation area: 261,774 hect- the NORPLAN COWI, DHI, and W&PES study ares; and (2002), which found that only 412 hectares had • Low-potential irrigation area: 534,271 hectares. been developed in the Songwe River for irrigation. This difference is probably due to projects According to the NORPLAN COWI, DHI, and being completed between 2002 and 2010, and W&PES study (2002), there are plans in the upper that according to the Ministry of Water and Ir- catchment (maize) of the Tanzanian part of the Son- rigation these 15,000 hectares are being irrigated gwe River basin to further extend the schemes men- but not efficiently in terms of water-management. tioned above to 820 hectares and to assist farmers Therefore, the consultant considered that half of in expanding their less formal irrigation schemes to the 23,200 hectares (11,600 hectares) are irrigated 130 hectares. In the lower catchment (rice), one new

Table A1.21. Current irrigation areas in Tanzania (ha)

Perennial Irrigation Dry season crops crops Wet season crops Total Total Control abstraction Winter Winter irrigated equipped point Name point rice maize Vegetables Tea Maize Cotton Soybeans Sorghum Rice area area 34 Rumakali I.03.12 425 50 25 — 25 12 9 4 425 975 500 36 Songwe I.03.05 6,375 750 375 — 375 180 135 60 6,375 14,625 7,500 40 Lake Malawi/Niassa/ I.03.08 3,009 354 177 60 177 85 64 28 3,009 6,963 3,600 Nyasa subbasin 43 Lake Malawi/Niassa/ I.03.10 — — — — — — — — — — Nyasa subbasin Total 9,809 1,154 577 60 577 277 208 92 9,809 22,563 11,600 Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter maize can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with maize (50 percent), cotton (24 percent), soybeans or equivalent (18 percent), and sorghum (eight percent). The areas cultivated with winter rice can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with rice.

78 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

irrigation area identified by the Ministry of Water Table A1.22. Potential irrigation areas in the and Irrigation. Tanzanian districts of the Zambezi River Basin (ha) High-potential Medium-potential Low-potential District irrigation area irrigation area irrigation area A1.7 Zambia Rungwe 8,553 14,991 26,544 Ileja 6,557 11,493 20,350 A1.7.1 Agriculture and irrigation Kyela 4,847 8,493 15,350 development policies

Makete 3,436 22,921 23,625 The government of the Republic of Zambia has Mbinga 4,176 51,066 291,204 placed agriculture as one of the key priority sectors Ludewa 22,904 152,810 157,500 for economic growth, development, and poverty Total 50,473 261,774 534,271 reduction. The government’s vision is to develop Source: Meeting with the Director of Irrigation and Technical Services, November 2009. an efficient and competitive agricultural sector that ensures food security at both household and national levels and also maximizes the sector’s scheme (for a reported potential of 4,800 hectares) contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP). has been planned but not yet surveyed or designed, To realize this vision, the government has in the and there are proposals to extend the existing Ngana past three years prepared several documents to scheme (now at six hectares) to 600 hectares once guide development in the sector. These documents the farmers become legally organized and registered are the National Agricultural and Cooperative and ask the irrigation section for assistance. Policy; Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP); Moreover, according to the Ministry of Water Agricultural Commercialization Programme (ACP); and Irrigation, the government’s priority is im- and Transitional National Development Plan. The provement coupled with rehabilitation of the exist- national development goal of reducing poverty and ing traditional irrigation schemes. For this reason, reaching middle income country status by 2030 are the consultant has considered that the identified articulated in the country’s Vision 2030. projects will essentially double the current irriga- Among the major policy shifts that accom- tion areas, mainly through rehabilitation. This will panied economic liberalization in the early 1990s bring the total irrigated area to 23,200 in the near was the focus on agricultural growth and other future. This represents half of the high-potential rural activities and infrastructure for poverty al-

Table A1.23. Identified projects in Tanzania: Irrigation areas (ha)

Perennial Irrigation Dry season crops crops Wet season crops Total Total Control abstraction Winter Winter irrigated equipped point Name point rice maize Vegetables Tea Maize Cotton Soybeans Sorghum Rice area area 34 Rumakali I.03.12 425 50 25 — 25 12 9 4 425 975 500 36 Songwe I.03.05 6,375 750 375 — 375 180 135 60 6,375 14,625 7,500 40 Lake Malawi/Niassa/ I.03.08 3,009 354 177 60 177 85 64 28 3,009 6,963 3,600 Nyasa subbasin 43 Lake Malawi/Niassa/ I.03.10 — — — — — — — — — — Nyasa subbasin Total 9,809 1,154 577 60 577 277 208 92 9,809 22,563 11,600 Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter areas can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with maize (50 percent), cotton (24 percent), soybeans or equivalent (18 percent), and sorghum (eight percent). The areas cultivated with winter rice can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with rice.

79 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis leviation. Current irrigation sector policy stems strategic investments and activities required to directly from the PRSP (2002). The PRSP called initiate and operate a competitive and sustainable for a sustainable and competitive agriculture sec- agricultural sector. tor that ensures food security and maximizes the The main target groups for this intervention sector’s contributions to GDP and exports. The in the NIP are inclusive of smallholders as well as earlier ACP (2001) was incorporated as the core emerging commercial and large-scale commercial strategy for agriculture in the PRSP. The ACP farmers, all living in areas with a high potential focuses on infrastructure development in high- for irrigation. In the NIP, the irrigated area could potential agricultural areas and the strengthen- be increased by about 70,000 hectares, of which ing of cooperatives and farmer organizations as 10,000 hectares would be assigned among large- a vehicle for achieving demand driven growth, scale commercial farmers, 30,000 hectares among profitable irrigated agriculture, and a sustainable emergent farmers, and 30,000 hectares among sector. The ACP emphasized the full participation small-scale farmers. Incremental production based of farmers in irrigation development. on this distribution would result in guaranteed Since the late 1990s, commercial smallholder food for strategic reserves, reduction in food irrigation has begun to emerge, principally through imports, export of surplus food, export of high- a variety of contract farming or outgrower schemes value cash, and increased industrial outputs and promoted by the private sector. Non-governmental employment. organizations have been mobilizing and support- The interventions proposed in this NIP are ing the formation of community based groups and analyzed and presented tailored to the resolution farmer groups, and apex farmer organizations have of four key and interrelated constraints: (i) finance begun to emerge to enable farmer members to access and investment, (ii) policy and legal, (iii) institu- markets directly. These developments have been tional and social, and (iv) market linkages. The set limited to areas with better developed infrastruc- of proposed NIP interventions should be imple- ture, such as main roads and railway lines. mented in totality and in a complementary man- In 2005, through the Ministry of Agriculture and ner to stimulate an irrigation based agricultural Cooperatives (MACO), the government adopted a industry in Zambia. To the extent possible, these national agriculture policy intended to provide an sets of interventions should be considered part of a enabling environment for the growth of the agricul- mutually reinforcing total picture for the generation tural sector through to 2015. The main thrust of the of the required impact. policy is to ensure a future for Zambia’s develop- The proposed intervention to improve the ment based on a vibrant, competitive, and efficient finance and investment environment includes the agricultural sector that ensures food security and establishment of an irrigation development fund significantly contributes to income and employ- to serve as a source of capital for irrigation-related ment generation, increased industrial development, projects and technology acquisition by farmers and export earnings, overall economic growth, and pov- industry operators who fall into the following cat- erty reduction. The agricultural policy framework egories. In order to facilitate and create an enabling is therefore being implemented within the overall environment for the development of irrigation, framework of the poverty reduction initiatives, such some policy and legal interventions that provide as the PRSPs. incentives for investment are proposed, such as (a) Within this overall framework, and taking into reduction of cost of energy, (b) reduction in cost of account the vulnerability of Zambia’s agricultural irrigation equipment, and (c) improved incentives sector to weather and climatic vagaries, MACO has for investing in irrigation. designed a national irrigation strategy that would A conducive and facilitating institutional and provide guidance to all levels and types of invest- social environment for the investment and opera- ments in irrigated agriculture. A national irrigation tion of irrigated farming is very necessary. The fol- plan (NIP) was also developed as part of the NDP lowing interventions are proposed to improve the that would run from 2006 to 2011 and specify the institutional and social environment:

80 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

Table A1.24. Irrigation abstraction points in Zambia Control point Name Irrigation abstraction point Comment 1 Kabompo I.13.01 n/a 2 Upper Zambezi — Considered to be used for irrigation only by Angola 3 Lungue Bungo — Considered to be used for irrigation only by Angola 4 Luanginga — Considered to be used for irrigation only by Angola 5 Barotse I.09.01 n/a 7 Caprivi I.08.02 Included in I.06.01 for the model 8 Livingstone before Victoria Falls I.06.01 Shared with Zimbabwe, Namibia, and Botswana 10 Between Victoria Falls and Batoka I.06.05 Shared with Zimbabwe 12 Between Batoka and Kariba I.06.07 Shared with Zimbabwe 15 Kariba Dam I.06.11 Shared with Zimbabwe 16 Upper Kafue I.07.01 n/a 18 Middle Kafue before Kafue Flats I.07.02 n/a 20 Kafue Flats I.07.03 n/a 21 Lower Kafue before Kafue Gorge Lower I.07.04 n/a 23 Lower Kafue after Kafue Gorge Lower I.07.05 n/a 24 Mupata I.04.01 Shared with Zimbabwe 25 Lunsemfwa I.05.01 n/a 26 Upper Luangwa I.05.02 n/a 27 Lower Luangwa I.05.03 Shared with Mozambique

• Streamlining issuance of water rights; plan developed by MACO and asserts the desir- • Improved capacity for MACO extension; ability of forging close linkages with it. • Improved capacity of farmer organizations; As part of the appraisal and evaluation pro- • Support to outgrower promoters (in terms of cesses for proposals submitted for assistance, expansion of outreach and mobilization capac- market factors should be taken into account before ity, outgrower promoters dealing with irrigation approval. It is also important to target high potential will require support in the form of transporta- areas and the identification of the right crop enter- tion); and prises. Irrigation farmers should be mobilized and • Support for irrigation research, as it is important supported through farmer organizations/groups that the research capacity of the National Irriga- to reduce transaction costs. Both farmers and their tion Research Station at Nanga be reestablished groups should be instructed in marketing skills. and supported to maintain, generate, and dis- Access to regional and international markets for seminate improved technology packages. the irrigated products should be enhanced through improved sanitary and phyto-sanitary advisory The Technology Development and Advisory services and facilities. Unit at the University of Zambia also should be supported to improve its capacity to manufacture A1.7.2 Area in the water allocation model irrigation equipment. Irrigation is a high-cost enter- prise, and achieving a rapid return on investment The Zambian part of the Zambezi River Basin requires strong market support and linkages. The concerns most of the thirteen major Zambezi River NIP recognizes the agriculture market development subbasins:

81 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

• Tete subbasin (2); under formal (commercial) farming and 48,000 • Mupata subbasin (4); hectares under informal (subsistence) farming. • Luangwa subbasin (5); • Kariba subbasin (6); Abstraction point I.13.01 • Kafue subbasin (7); • Cuando/Chobe subbasin (8); Data concerning this part of the Basin are quite rare, • Barotse subbasin (9); notably because the subbasin is not very developed • Luanginga (10); in terms of irrigation. According to Yachiyo Engi- • Lungúe Bungo subbasin, named Lungwebungu neering Co. (1995), the total irrigated area in Zambia in Zambia (11); is around 2,800 hectares beyond the main Zambezi • Upper Zambezi subbasin (12); and tributaries. Consequently, without the irrigated • Kabompo subbasin (13). area in the southern province, one can consider that the irrigated area in the Kabompo subbasin Irrigation abstractions in Zambia are modeled (13) in Zambia was less than 800 hectares in 1995. through 19 control points, some of them shared with Moreover, according to this study, the irrigated area other Zambezi riparian countries. was approximately 520 hectares in the northwestern province of Zambia in 1995. This study also gives A1.7.3 Irrigation sector – current situation the proportion of each irrigated crop per subbasin in Zambia. This breakdown is used to estimate the The consultant found many documents and sources current crop configuration. dealing with irrigation in Zambia, including According to Coche (1998), there is one irrigation scheme in the Kabompo subbasin: Mwinilunga • Yachiyo Engineering Co. 1995; Pineapple, with 350 hectares irrigated. This irriga- • Stephens 2008; tion scheme was not yet built at the time of the • The Zambian National Farmer Union database; Yachiyo Engineering Co. (1995) study. According • The ZRA inventory; to Stephens (2008), the irrigated area in the north- • Imagen Consulting Ltd 2008; and western province is only 300 hectares because of • MASDAR Ltd 2004. marketing constraints. Therefore, it is assumed that 350 hectares are irrigated today in the Kabompo According to the 2006 NDP 5, crop production subbasin, with the breakdown of crops indicated increases will notably come from expansion of land in Yachiyo Engineering Co. (1995). under irrigation in Zambia from the current estimated 100,000 hectares to 200,000 hectares by 2010. Abstraction point I.09.01 According to the 2008 Zambian Integrated Water Resources Management and Water Efficiency Imple- Data concerning this part of the Basin are also quite mentation Plan (GWP and CIDA 2008), the 2008 area rare, again because the subbasin is not very devel- irrigated in Zambia is estimated at 100,000 hectares, oped in terms of irrigation compared with other which comprises approximately 52,000 hectares parts of Zambia. According to Yachiyo Engineer-

Table A1.25. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Kabompo subbasin (ha)

Irrigation Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops Total Total Control abstraction Winter Vegetables irrigated equipped point Name point wheat (tomatoes) Other Citrus Pasture Maize Tobacco area area 1 Kabompo I.13.01 136 64 45 23 82 88 48 486 350 Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter wheat can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with maize (65 percent) and tobacco (35 percent).

82 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

Table A1.26. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Barotse subbasin (ha)

Irrigation Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops Total Total Control abstraction Winter Vegetables irrigated equipped point Name point wheat (tomatoes) Other Citrus Pasture Maize Tobacco area area 5 Barotse I.09.01 78 36 26 13 47 51 27 278 200 Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter wheat can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with maize (65 percent) and tobacco (35 percent).

ing Co. (1995), the total irrigated area in Zambia is describe the irrigation area in the southern province, around 2,800 hectares beyond the main Zambezi which is situated in this subbasin and is adjacent tributaries. Consequently, without the irrigated to which concerns this subbasins and neighboring area in the southern province, one can consider that subbasins and the Kafue River Basin. Moreover, the the irrigated area in the Zambian part of the Upper Kafue River Basin is quite well known, so it is pos- Zambezi River was less than 800 hectares in 1995. sible to gather the irrigation characteristics of the According to this study, the irrigated area was ap- Zambian subbasins collectively for I.06.01, I.06.05, proximately seven hectares in the western province and I.06.07. According to Stephens (2008), there is of Zambia in 1995. This study also gives the break- approximately 5,000 hectares of irrigation area in down of each irrigated crop per subbasin in Zambia. these subbasins. One more precise source was avail- According to Coche (1998), there is one ir- able, the Zambian National Farmer Union data which rigation scheme in the Barotse subbasin (8): the describes approximately 3,000 hectares of wheat and Sefula Scheme, with 200 hectares of irrigated rice. 300 hectares of tobacco in the Chisamba area. Again, According to Stephens (2008), the irrigated area in Yachiyo Engineering Co. (1995) gives the proportion the western province is only 100 hectares of rice. of each irrigated crop per subbasin in Zambia in 1995. Therefore, it is assumed that the current irrigation in The ZRA inventory of withdrawals from the the Barotse subbasin provides 200 hectares of formal Zambezi River above Kariba and directly from the irrigation, with the breakdown of crops indicated Kariba Dam describes some precise abstraction in Yachiyo Engineering Co. (1995). points. Therefore, according to the ZRA inventory, it is assumed that the current irrigation area in the Abstraction points I.08.02 and I.06.01 I.06.01 Kariba subbasin (6), upstream of Victoria Falls, Zambian part, is 1,500 hectares. It is assumed that there is no water intake in Na- mibia with benefit to Zambia (I.08.02). Concerning Abstraction points I.06.05 and I.06.07 the abstraction in the Southern Province in Zambia, the subbasin lateral to the Zambezi River between It is assumed that there is no irrigation in the small the Caprivi strip and Victoria Falls, different sources subbasin between Livingstone and the projected

Table A1.27. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Kariba subbasin upstream of Victoria Falls (ha)

Irrigation Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops Total Total Control abstraction Winter Vegetables irrigated equipped point Name point wheat (tomatoes) Other Citrus Pasture Maize Tobacco area area 8 Livingstone I.06.01 584 273 195 97 351 380 204 2,084 1,500 before Vic Falls Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter wheat can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with maize (65 percent) and tobacco (35 percent).

83 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A1.28. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Kariba subbasin downstream of Victoria Falls (ha)

Irrigation Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops Total Total Control abstraction Winter Vegetables irrigated equipped point Name point wheat (tomatoes) Other Citrus Pasture Maize Tobacco area area 12 Between Batoka I.06.07 195 91 65 32 117 127 68 695 500 and Kariba Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter wheat can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with maize (65 percent) and tobacco (35 percent).

Table A1.29. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Kariba subbasin, Kariba Reservoir (ha)

Irrigation Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops Total Total Control abstraction Winter Vegetables Winter irrigated equipped point Name point wheat (tomatoes) Other cotton Citrus Pasture Maize Tobacco Cotton area area 15 Kariba I.06.11 836 390 279 500 137 502 544 293 500 3,480 2,644 Dam Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter wheat can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with maize (65 percent) and tobacco (35 percent); the winter cotton areas can be cultivated with summer cotton.

Batoka Gorge (I.06.05). According to the ZRA in- Kafue River irrigation in Yachiyo Engineering Co. ventory, it is also assumed that the current irriga- (1995), Coche (1998), Piésold (2003), and Imagen tion area in the I.06.7 Kariba subbasin (6), between Consulting Ltd. (2008). One more detailed source Batoka Gorge and the Kariba Reservoir, Zambian was available: data from the Zambian National part, is 500 hectares. Farmer Union, which were included (for this part of Zambia) in the work of Stephens. Discussions Abstraction point I.06.11 with Stephens and with commercial farmers (June 2008) clarified the current situation of irrigation in It is stipulated that the current irrigation area in the Kafue River Basin. the I.06.9 Kariba subbasin, which withdraws water According to Stephens (2008), the current ir- directly from Lake Kariba, Zambian part, is 2,644 rigation area, from surface water, in the I.07 Kafue hectares. This figure corresponds to the ZRA in- subbasin is approximately 35,000 hectares, whereas ventory of 2,144 hectares, plus the 500 hectares of according to Yachiyo Engineering Co. (1995), it is irrigated cotton of the Gwembe irrigation project approximately 30,000 hectares (surface and ground- (Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007). water), and according to Imagen Consulting Ltd. (2008), it is 40,660 hectares. The differences may be Abstraction points I.07.01, I.07.02, I.07.03, explained by the recent growth in irrigation in this I.07.04, and I.07.05 area, especially with commercial farms. Table A1.30 presents a summary of the Kafue irrigation zones. Data for this part of the Basin are more precise The source from which the summary data were than for the other parts of Zambia and for most of drawn (Imagen Consulting Ltd. 2008) also provides the Zambezi River Basin because there have been data on the crop budget. many recent studies of the Kafue subbasin (7). In this study, the consultant considered only Therefore, numerous sources describe the irrigation surface water irrigation schemes. The Upper Kafue, area in the Kafue River Basin, the most recent and Mpongwe Kampemba, and Munkumpu irrigation complete being the work of Stephens (2008). One zones are included in the I.07.01 Upper Kafue sub- can also find pieces of information concerning the basin. There is no surface irrigation in the I.07.02

84 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

Table A1.30. Kafue irrigation zones Irrigation zones Irrigation area—Surface water (ha) Irrigation area—Groundwater (ha) Water source Upper Kafue 608 — Kafue River Mpongwe Nampamba — 1,938 Sink hole Mpongwe Kampemba 1,015 — Kafue River Munkumpu 2,512 — Ipumbu River Kabwe — 465 Borehole Chisamba — 2,258 Borehole Choma 560 — Mbabala and Chisaboyo Rivers Mazabuka 28,815 — Kafue River Kafue Sugar 6,427 — Kafue River Lusaka West — 4,415 Borehole Chiawa (estimated) 960 — Kafue River Subtotal 40,897 9,076 Total 49,973 Source: Imagen Consulting Ltd. 2008.

subbasin Middle Kafue before Kafue Flats, but rather swamp and borehole irrigation. Most of the Figure A1.18. Pivot irrigation – the Chiawa Kafue irrigation takes place in the I.07.03 Kafue irrigation scheme Flats subbasin, including the Choma, Mazabuka, and Kafue Sugar zones. Finally, in the Lower Kafue (I.07.05), the irrigation is practiced in the Chiawa zone (figure A1.18). In the Kafue Flats, the main crop is sugarcane. The main sugarcane producers are (the sources for the information are Timothy Stephens and the manager of the Delta Farm):

• Delta Farm: 2.000 hectares of sugarcane; • Nega Nega Farm: 600 hectares of sugarcane; • Nakambala Sugar Estate: 12.000 hectares of sugarcane (included in a total of 17,000 hectares according to State of Environment 2003); Source: Google Earth 2008. • Kaleya outgrowers: 2,200 hectares of sugarcane; • Nanga Farms: 3.000 hectares of sugarcane (only 1,750 hectares in the State of Environment 2003); Abstraction point I.04.01 and • Kafue Sugar: 2.500 hectares of sugarcane. Not many resources cover with irrigation in the Zambian part of this section of the Basin which is Other cultivated crops include coffee (Muioli small but contains the Chongwe subbasin: and Terra Nova schemes), vegetables, bananas, tobacco, wheat, and soybeans in the wet season plus • There were approximately 1,650 hectares irri- small areas of beans, citrus, pasture, and other crops. gated with surface waters, which are probably

85 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Figure A1.19. Kaleya outgrowers

Source: BRLi 2008.

Table A1.31. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Kafue subbasin (ha)

Dry season Irrigation crops Perennial crops Wet season crops Total Total Control abstraction Winter irrigated equipped point Name point wheat Sugarcane Coffee Banana Soybeans Tobacco area area 16 Upper Kafue I.07.01 4,135 — 42 4,135 — 8,312 4,177 18 Middle Kafue before I.07.02 — — — — — — — — the Kafue Flats 20 Kafue Flats I.07.03 1,275 33,068 596 82 773 502 36,296 35,021 21 Lower Kafue before I.07.04 — — — — — — — — Kafue Gorge Lower 23 Lower Kafue after I.07.05 960 — — — 960 — 1,920 960 Kafue Gorge Lower Total 6,370 33,068 596 124 5,868 502 46,528 40,158 Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter wheat can be cultivated, with supplementary irrigation, with tobacco (502 hectares) and soybeans (the rest). The difference between this total of 40,158 equipped hectares and the announced total of 40,660 equipped hectares comes from the fact that the consultant modeled irrigated tobacco as a wet season crop.

situated in this subbasin or were in the Luangwa • There is not much more than 500 hectares subbasin in 1998, according to the Coche study around the banks of the Zambezi River between (1998) (50 hectares of Chanyanya scheme, 50 Kariba and Cahora Bassa, according to the ir- hectares of Chipapa, and 20 hectares of Kaunga); rigation expert Timothy Stephens (consulted • There are more than 15 schemes representing in June 2008). approximately 3,300 hectares at Chisamba, according to the recent Zambian National Therefore, it is estimated that the current irriga- Farmer Union data, but it was not possible to tion area in the I.04.01 Mupata subbasin, Zambian distinguish where they were precisely situated portion, is around 1,000 hectares (from the hypoth- (or in the Kafue, the Zambezi, or the Luangwa esis that the Zambian National Farmer Union figure subbasins); and is almost equally shared among three different sub-

86 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

Table A1.32. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Mupata subbasin (ha)

Irrigation Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops Total Total Control abstraction Winter Vegetables irrigated equipped point Name point wheat (tomatoes) Citrus Coffee Maize Tobacco area area 24 Mupata I.04.01 130 220 220 430 85 46 1,130 1,000 Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter wheat can be cultivated, with supplementary irrigation, with maize (65 percent) and tobacco (35 percent).

basins). The proportion of different crops is given One may therefore suppose that the current irri- by Yachiyo Engineering Co. (1995). gation area in the Luangwa subbasin is 10,100 hectares (approximately 13 percent more than the 1995 Abstraction points I.05.01, I.05.02, and estimates of the master plan contained in Yachiyo I.05.03 Engineering Co. 1995). Whilst there is no irrigation inventoried in the Lower Luangwa (I.05.03), Not many sources are providing information on there are some known schemes in the Lunsemfwa irrigation activities in the Luangwa subbasin (5); subbasin (I.05.01, 9,100 hectares) and in the Upper however, there were: Luangwa subbasin (I.05.02, 1,000 hectares). The Lunsemfwa subbasin notably includes the following • 8,900 hectares irrigated with surface waters in two large schemes: the Luangwa subbasin in 1995, according to Yachiyo Engineering Co. (1995); • The Mwomboshi scheme, where the commercial • 9,100 hectares irrigated with surface waters in farmers currently irrigate 1,594 hectares from the Mwomboshi and Mkushi schemes (1,594 stored water in farm dams (average approxi- and 7,500 hectares, respectively), according to mately 2 x 106 m3) and from small weirs placed the joint FAO and World Bank identification in the Mwomboshi River; and mission (2008b); and • The Mkushi scheme, where it is estimated that • 2,000 hectares irrigated with surface waters in there are now 7,500 hectares (970 hectares in the eastern and northern provinces, accord- 1998, 2,300 hectares in 2001, and 5,250 hectares ing to Stephens (2008), but this zone includes in 2005) of irrigation in the block. the irrigation from the Congo River Basin (the consultant estimated that only half is situated The proportion of crops is again the one given in the Luangwa River subbasin). in Yachiyo Engineering Co. (1995) for the Luangwa

Table A1.33. Current irrigation areas in Zambia: Luangwa subbasin (ha)

Irrigation Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops Total Total Control abstraction Winter Vegetables irrigated equipped point Name point wheat Beans (tomatoes) Other Citrus Pasture Maize Tobacco area area 25 Lunsemfwa I.05.01 4,225 217 2,275 433 1,408 542 2,746 1,479 13,325 9,100 26 Upper Luangwa I.05.02 464 24 250 47 155 60 302 162 1,464 1,000 27 Lower Luangwa I.05.03 — — — — — — — — — — Total 4,689 241 2,525 480 1,563 602 3,048 1,641 14,789 10,100 Note: During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter wheat and winter beans can be cultivated, with supplementary irrigation, with maize (50 percent) and soybeans (50 percent) for the Upper Luangwa; and maize only for the Lunsemfwa River basin (because of sandy soils).

87 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis subbasin (for instance, 40 percent of the area is cul- gram on agricultural water management for food tivated with wheat). security).

A1.7.4 Identified irrigation development Abstraction points I.06.05 and I.06.07 projects The identified projects in the I.06.07 subbasin, Abstraction point I.13.01 between Batoka Gorge and the Kariba Reservoir (Zambian part), represent a total of 782 hectares Some irrigation projects in the Kabompo subbasin (half of the Zambian irrigation area development were found in the 1995 study by Yachiyo Engineer- planned in the mid-Zambezi River Basin agricultur- ing Co., notably: al water management for food security program). There is no identified project in the small subbasin • 1,000 hectare Mwombes run-of-river project; between Victoria Falls and the projected Batoka • 2,300 hectare Mwinilunga run-of-river project; Gorge (I.06.05). and • 3,000 hectare Kabompo run-of-river project. Abstraction point I.06.11

Abstraction point I.09.01 The African Development Bank identified two projects involving future abstractions directly Some irrigation projects in the Barotse subbasin from Lake Kariba. These are the Nzenga (100 were inventoried by Yachiyo Engineering Co. (1995): hectares, smallholders, mixed cropping), and the Sinazongwe (150 hectares, smallholders, mixed • The Nakatoya 10 hectare project; cropping). • The Katima Mulilo 1,000 hectare run-of-river project (200 hectares vegetables, 400 hectares Abstraction points I.07.01, I.07.02, I.07.03, wheat, and 400 hectares citrus); I.07.04, and I.07.05 (Kafue subbasin) • The Zambezi Floodplain 3,000 hectare run-of- river project (vegetables); A number of irrigation projects in the I.07 Kafue • The Ngamwe Rapid 1,000 hectare run-of-river subbasin were inventoried. They include extension project (200 hectares vegetables, 400 hectares the current farms and the creation of new irrigation wheat, and 400 hectares citrus); schemes. The identified projects are: • The Manto Rapid 1,000 hectare run-of-river project (200 hectares vegetables, 400 hectares • The Kampembe farm extension at Mpongwe wheat, and 400 hectares citrus); and (Stephens 2008); • The Sioma Rapid 1,000 hectare run-of-river • The Machiya run-of-river project (Yachiyo En- project (200 hectares vegetables, 400 hectares gineering Co. 1995); wheat, and 400 hectares citrus). • The Kafue Sugar extension project (Stephens 2008); Abstraction points I.08.02 and I.06.01 • The Cotton Development Trust on the Magoye River (Stephens 2008); The consultant has not identified some irriga- • The Kaleya smallholders extension proj- tion projects using waters from the Caprivi area ect (meeting with the Delta Farm manager, (I.08.02). However, the identified projects taken June 2008); into consideration in the I.06.01 small Zambezi • The Nega-Nega project (NEPAD and FAO River lateral subbasin, upstream of Victoria Falls in 2004a); and the Zambian part, represent a total of 782 hectares • The Chiawa Estate extension (meeting with (half of the Zambian irrigation area development Timothy Stephens, June 2008). planned in the middle Zambezi River Basin pro-

88 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

Figure A1.20. Area of middle Zambezi River Basin program on agricultural water management for food security

North-Western Copperbelt MALAWI Eastern LILONGWE ZAMBIA i z e Central b

a Z Western Mongu Lake Lusaka Cahora Bassa Z LUSAKA a m b e Southern zi ANGOLA

K Mashonaland w a Mashonaland Central nd o West

Kasane Livingstone Lake HARARE ti Kariba ya Lin Mashonaland S East ha ngan i Midlands Mutare Matabeleland ZIMBABWE BOTSWANA North Manicaland

Bulawayo Masvingo MOZAMBIQUE PROJECT AREA NAMIBIA MAIN ROADS Francistown Matabeleland RIVERS South ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES 0 100 200 INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES IBRD 37959 KILOMETERS July 2010

Source: AfDB, SADC, FAO, and ADB 2006.

The identified projects taken into consider- hectares in the short-term plus 26,000 hectares in ation in the I.07 Kafue subbasin represent a total of the long-term: 37,910 hectares. The identified projects taken into consideration • The Kafue Sugar extension project (1,500 hect- in the I.07.01 Kafue subbasin, upstream of the Itezhi ares of sugar); Tezhi Dam, represent a total of 6,000 hectares (1,000 • The Cotton Development Trust on the Magoye hectares for the Kampembe Farm extension and River (80 hectares of cotton, which will not be 5,000 hectares for the Machiya run-of-river project). irrigated during the dry season); The projected irrigated crops are estimated to be • The Kaleya smallholders extension project (370 wheat (96 percent), vegetables (two percent), and hectares of sugar); and tomatoes (two percent), as for the existing irrigation • The Nega-Nega project (600 hectares of sugar for schemes in the Copperbelt Valley. the short-term plus 4,100 hectares of sugarcane The identified projects taken into consideration for the long-term).9 These figures are much low- in the I.07.03 Kafue Flats represent a total of 4,950 er than the initial Nega-Nega extension project.

9 Source: National Consultation Workshop in Lusaka, Zambia on September 16, 2009.

89 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

The total area of identified projects in the Lu- Figure A1.21. Different phases of the Nega-Nega angwa subbasin is 6,130 hectares. project The identified projects in the I.05.01 Lunsemfwa subbasin cover a total of 4,650 hectares. The propor- PHASE II. PHASE I: NEPAD – NEGA-NEGA PROPOSED 10,000 Ha IRRIGATION PROJECT AREA. 3,000 Ha tion of different crop areas is given by the FAO and the World Bank (2008).

N The identified project taken into consideration PHASE IV. Canal in the I.05.02 Upper Luangwa subbasin, upstream 4,000 Ha of the Lunsemfwa confluence, represents a total of DELTA FARM 1,480 hectares. The proportion of different crop areas PHASE III. is given in Yachiyo Engineering Co. (1995) for the 8,000 Ha KAFUE RIVER Luangwa subbasin.

ADB – SIP PROJECT AREA A1.8 Zimbabwe

Source: NEPAD and FAO 2004a. A1.8.1 Agriculture and irrigation development policies

During the 1990s, there was a concerted drive by Abstraction point I.04.01 the government to recast agriculture and water development policy and strategy in order to revive The identified projects included in the I.04.01 sub- the sector. Zimbabwe’s Agriculture Policy Frame- basin between Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams (on work, 1995 to 2010 (ZAPF), launched in 1996 after Zambian territory) are: extensive stakeholder consultation, established four pillars: (i) the transformation of smallholder • The scheme linked to the Chongwe Dam agriculture into a fully commercial farming sys- project of 810 hectares (Yachiyo Engineering tem; (ii) an annual increase in agricultural output Co. 1995); significantly larger than the annual population • The Lusitu project (World Bank-financed proj- growth rate; (iii) the development of physical ect) of 250 hectares, smallholders, mixed crops; and social infrastructure in all rural areas; and and (iv) the development of fully sustainable farming • Kanakantapa (Chongwé District) of 620 hectares systems throughout the country. ZAPF placed in first phase and 1,500 hectares in total, small- much greater reliance on market forces than in the holders, mixed crops. past, increased levels of private-sector investment, and made substantial improvements to efficiency Abstraction points I.05.01, I.05.02, and in the use of capital. In the smallholder sector, I.05.03 ZAPF again emphasizes a commitment to strategies that transform the sector into a fully com- The identified irrigation projects in the Luangwa mercial farming system, implying that it should subbasin are: be self-sustaining and profitable. ZAPF included among its key strategies that (a) priority would be • The commercial agriculture development proj- given to farmer-managed and -operated systems; ect at Mwomboshi and Mkushi schemes, 4,650 (b) effective water-user associations would be hectares of extension (FAO and World Bank encouraged and facilitated in the planning, devel- 2008); and opment, and evaluation of irrigation projects; and • The Lundazi Dam irrigation project of 1,480 (c) water allocation would take into account and hectares (Yachiyo Engineering Co. 1995). address the imbalances in water supply between

90 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions 8 80 370 960 area Total Total 3,000 5,000 1,001 2,300 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 1,500 4,700 equipped 11 160 370 area 4169 9800 1391 3196 1400 1400 1400 1400 1960 3000 1500 4700 1910 Total Total Continued on next page Continued irrigated irrigated 1 0 409 137 314 140 140 140 140 — — — — — — — Tobacco 2 0 760 254 582 260 260 260 260 — — — — — — — Maize 80 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — cotton Summer Wet season crops Wet — — 960 950 — — — — — — — — — — — 4,800 Soybeans 10 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Bananas — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Coffee 2 701 234 538 — — — — — — — — — — — — Pasture 1 Perennial crops Perennial 65 20 195 100 149 400 400 400 400 — — — — — — Citrus 370 — — — — — — — — — — — — — 4,700 1,500 Sugarcane 80 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — cotton Winter Winter 1 — 390 130 299 — — — — — — — — — — — Other — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Beans 1 Dry season crops 20 545 100 182 418 200 200 200 200 — — — — — 3000 (tomatoes) Vegetables Vegetables 3 390 896 400 400 400 400 960 950 — — — — — 1,169 4,800 wheat Winter Winter Project Cotton Development Development Cotton on the Magoye Trust River smallholders Kaleya extension Nega-Nega project Nega-Nega long term Mwombes run-of-river Mwombes Mwinilunga run-of-river Kabompo run-of-river Nakatoya Mulilo run-of-Katima river Floodplain Zambezi run-of-river Rapid run- Ngamwe of-river Rapid run-of-Manto river Sioma Rapid run-of- river Kampembe farm extension run-of-river Machiya Kafue Sugar extension Chiawa Estate Estate Chiawa extension point I.09.01 I.07.03 I.13.01 I.13.01 I.09.01 I.09.01 I.09.01 I.09.01 I.09.01 I.07.03 I.07.03 I.07.03 I.13.01 I.07.01 I.07.01 I.07.05 Irrigation Irrigation abstraction Name Barotse Kafue Flats Kabompo Kabompo Barotse Barotse Barotse Barotse Barotse Kafue Flats Kafue Flats Kafue Flats Upper Kafue Upper Kafue Kafue Lower Kafue after Lower Kabompo 5 20 1 1 5 5 5 16 16 5 5 20 20 20 23 Table A1.34. Identified irrigation projects irrigation A1.34. Identified in Zambia Table Control point 1

91 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 782 782 100 150 810 250 area Total Total 2,125 2,525 1,479 1,500 equipped 37,422 139 209 915 283 area 1087 1087 3670 4750 2201 1695 Total Total irrigated irrigated 53802 14 20 37 11 68 107 107 361 — 1113 Tobacco 3258 25 38 68 21 198 198 361 127 1545 1113 Maize 6332 80 — — — — — — — — — — cotton Summer Wet season crops Wet — — — — — — — — — — 6,710 Soybeans 10 — — — — — — — — — — Bananas 348 108 645 — — — — — — — Coffee 1,101 23 35 88 183 183 425 100 — — — Pasture 2,512 6 Perennial crops Perennial 50 50 10 55 155 200 229 178 330 Citrus 3,393 — — — — — — — — — — 6,570 Sugarcane 80 — — — — — — — — — — cotton Winter Winter 13 20 70 102 102 — — — — — Other 1,126 75 35 125 — — — — — — — Beans 235 Dry season crops 18 27 55 142 142 370 179 330 — — (continued) 6330 (tomatoes) Vegetables Vegetables 39 59 33 305 305 687 105 195 1,470 2,100 wheat Winter Winter 16,065 Project Mid-Zambezi Delta Mid-Zambezi water agricultural food for management security program Mid-Zambezi Delta Mid-Zambezi water agricultural food for management security program Nzenga Sinazongwe Commercial agriculture agriculture Commercial project— development Mwomboshi Commercial agriculture agriculture Commercial project– development Mkushi Lundazi Dam irrigation Lundazi Chongwe Dam Chongwe Lusitu Kanakantapa (total) point I.06.01 I.06.07 I.06.11 I.06.11 I.05.01 I.05.01 I.05.02 I.04.01 I.04.01 I.04.01 Irrigation Irrigation abstraction Name Living - stone Vic before Falls Between and Batoka Kariba Kariba Dam Kariba Dam - Lunsem fwa - Lunsem fwa Upper Luangwa Mupata Mupata Mupata Table A1.34. Identified irrigation projects irrigation A1.34. Identified in Zambia Table Control point 8 12 15 15 25 26 26 24 24 24 Total

92 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions large large-scale commercial farmers and small- • Land and agrarian reforms will be pursued to holder irrigators. ensure the productive use of land; The land reform undertaken by the Zimba- • Institutional development will focus on efficient bwean government has resulted in an expansion delivery of services to farmers; of smallholder irrigation area (i.e., the long-term • Pursuance of that will lead to increased produc- reform that officially began 1979). The reform split tion and ensure household food security; and up commercial irrigation schemes and ushered in • The creation of a public-sector investment pro- two new groups of farmers, namely A1 who irrigate gram will support agricultural development. small areas sometimes using shared irrigation infrastructure, and A2 who are commercial irrigators. The Land Reform and Resettlement Pro- In some cases, the A2 farmers also share irrigation gramme, under implementation since 2000, is part infrastructure. of the above framework and has so far resulted in ZAPF identified achieving food security as one the broadening of the potential agricultural pro- of the priority national target areas for the period duction base through land redistribution. Under from 1995 to 2020. Traditionally, Zimbabwe has the program, the government has acquired ap- been food secure at the national level and a net proximately 11 million hectares of land, bringing maize exporter in normal years. Food insecurity the total amount of land redistributed since inde- was only a household level concern among the poor pendence to 14.4 million hectares. The target of the or those without enough land to farm. However, program is to settle a total of 350,000 indigenous food shortages at both the national and household families. levels have increased over the last five years and the In 2003, MERP was succeeded by the National country has had to rely on food aid and commercial Economic Revival Programme (NERP). A multi- grain imports to meet its requirements. Although sector macro framework, NERP forms the basis droughts have played a big role in this scenario, for several strategic framework documents under the general contraction in the economy, the slow which different government programs were to pace at which newly resettled farmers have com- be implemented. In the agricultural sector, NERP menced agricultural activities, and the onset of the drew heavily from ZAPF. It notes the severe so- HIV/AIDS pandemic have also been significant cioeconomic challenges facing the country and contributing factors. focuses on the following measures for agriculture Faced with dwindling donor support, the and rural development: a) security of land tenure, government of Zimbabwe launched the Millen- b) promotion of effective land utilization, c) review nium Economic Recovery Programme (MERP) in of minimum farm sizes, d) provision of farm input 2000. MERP was an 18-month program intended support, and e) proper producer pricing policies. to achieve economic stability through a combi- The Ministry of Water Resources and Infrastruc- nation of fiscal and monetary policy measures tural Development prepared five and ten year that included setting public-sector salaries and development plans in July 2007. They established wages at 12 percent of GDP and introducing a the following priorities: cash-budgeting system. Furthermore, Z$1.6 bil- Immediate priorities (one year, July 2007 to lion was allocated to support small-scale farmers June 2008): in the communal and resettlement areas. Other measures were the establishment of the Zimbabwe • Complete rehabilitation/development of Revenue Authority and the Privatization Agency 14,988 hectares (summer 2007/2008 and winter of Zimbabwe to facilitate the privatization of 2008); public enterprises. • Complete irrigation development on 987 hect- The long-term policy objectives for the agricul- ares of land under land clearing; tural sector as a whole are set out in ZAPF. Under • Complete irrigation development on 484 hect- this policy framework, agricultural development is ares of national winter projects in the Public based on the following principles: Sector Investment Programme;

93 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

• Complete outstanding rehabilitation projects Long-term priorities (10 years): (approximately 10,000 hectares); • Rehabilitate idle center pivot equipment (2886 • Develop new irrigation schemes to exploit hectares); unused water bodies (approximately 113,000 • Complete rehabilitation of A1 and A2 non- hectares of the 300,000 hectares target; Maguta projects; • Develop an average 500 hectares per province • Complete rehabilitation of Maguta target (7954 per year using enhanced Department of Irriga- hectares); tion capacity; • Complete currently ongoing irrigation develop- • Continue enhancing farmer irrigation management projects under the Public Sector Invest- ment skills—A1, A2, and communal; and ment Programme; • Irrigation development from proposed medium • Produce irrigation policy and act; and to large dams. • Embark on A1 and A2 farmer training. A1.8.2 Area in the water allocation model Short-term priorities (three years): The Zimbabwean part of the Zambezi River Ba- • Commission at least 28,000 hectares of reha- sin falls within three subbasins of the Zambezi bilitated/newly developed irrigation schemes; River: • Complete irrigation development on remaining 1,800 hectares under land clearing; • Tete subbasin (2); • Transform into an irrigation agency/entity; • Mupata subbasin (4); and • Achieve enhanced efficiency in irrigation • Kariba subbasin (6). through farmer and operator training; • Complete all outstanding A1 and A2 rehabilita- Irrigation abstractions in Zimbabwe are mod- tion (see idle equipment document); eled through nine abstraction points, some of them • Advance new irrigation development on 5,000 shared with other riparian countries. Figure A1.22. hectares utilizing water in existing dams (on shows the location of the Gwayi, Sanyati, and Man- average 200 hectares per province per year); yame river subbasins). • Capacitate Department of Irrigation with adequate resources: transport, personnel, construc- A1.8.3 Irrigation sector – current situation tion equipment, adequate survey and camping equipment; Abstraction point I.06.02 • A database of approved irrigation equipment suppliers; During data collection for the modeling, data per • A database (up to date) of all irrigation schemes province was available but lacked in precision (50,000 of more than 100,000 hectares); in certain cases. The FAO AQUASTAT database • Further staff development; and provides a breakdown of irrigated areas by crop in • The upgrade of Zimbabwe Irrigation Technol- 1999. From the ZRA inventory (as for the Zambian ogy Center facilities. abstractions in this part of the Zambezi River Ba- sin), it is estimated that the current irrigation area Medium-term priorities (five years): in this Kariba subbasin, upstream of Victoria Falls, Zimbabwean part, is 75 hectares. • Develop irrigation schemes using dams with underutilized water; Abstraction points I.06.06 and I.06.08 • Develop irrigation schemes using dams currently under construction; and There does not appear to be any irrigation abstrac- • Enhance farmer irrigation management skills— tions in the small subbasin between Livingstone A1, A2, and communal. and the projected Batoka Gorge Dam site (I.06.06).

94 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

Moreover, it is assumed that the current irrigation voir on the Zimbabwean side is 500 hectares, similar area between Batoka Gorge and the Kariba Reser- to the Zambian territory in the subbasin.

Table A1.35. Irrigation abstraction points in Zimbabwe Control point Name Irrigation abstraction point Comment 8 Livingstone before Victoria Falls I.06.02 Shared with Zambia, Namibia, and Botswana 10 Between Victoria Falls and Batoka I.06.06 Shared with Zambia 12 Between Batoka and Kariba I.06.08 Shared with Zambia 13 Gwayi I.06.09 n/a 14 Sanyati I.06.10 n/a 15 Kariba Dam I.06.12 Shared with Zambia 24 Mupata I.04.02 Shared with Zambia 28 Manyane I.02.01 n/a 32 Luenha I.02.05 Shared with Mozambique

Figure A1.22. River basins of Zimbabwe

i 28° bez 34° Zam ZIMBABWE RIVER BASINS 16°

Lake MANYAME ZAMBIA Kariba

e e m w a o y z n a a M Sa ny M ati MAZOWE HARARE zi Zambe 18° SANYATI 18°

Sh ang ani GWAYI SAVE S a v e

Gw a y i MOZAMBIQUE 20° RUNDI 20° BOTSWANA

Ru nd i MZINGWANE N ua n e ts M i z Sh in as g he w a n e 0 50 100 150 22° 22° KILOMETERS IBRD 37961 popo Lim July 2010 26° 28° SOUTH AFRICA 32°

Source: Zimbabwe National Water Authority 2006.

95 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Abstraction points I.06.09, I.06.10, I.04.02, the irrigation areas in the Midlands and Mashon- I.02.01, and I.02.05 aland West Province (FAO 1999):

43,500 + 25,000 Available data concerning the irrigation area in 80% x x (8,962+ 33,057) = 21,600 ha Zimbabwe are principally at provincial scale. Conse- 49,166 + 57,441 quently, when necessary, the irrigation area inside a The Zimbabwean part of the subbasin between given watershed is estimated using area proportions Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams (I.04.02) represent drawn from the provincial data. around half of the area of the Mashonaland West Irrigation areas per province, as well as crop Province. It is estimated that the irrigation area budgets, were taken from the FAO AQUASTAT is currently 21,600 hectares in the Shangani River (1999) database for a total of 175,000 hectares for Basin, where 33,000 hectares represent the irriga- the entire country. The Manzungu study (2002) also tion area (FAO 1999). The FAO AQUASTAT (1999) recounts provincial irrigation area, and estimates database gives the breakdown of irrigated areas the total to be 120,000 hectares, though the data per crop in 1999: is most likely older than the FAO (1999) figures. 43,500 + 25,000 However, the FAO and ASFR study (2000) gives 80% x x (8,962 + 33,057) AGRITEX estimates (1999) of a country irrigation 49,166 + 57,441 area of 120,000 hectares. = 21,600 ha Moreover, numerous sources emphasize that The Chirundu irrigation scheme is now non- some existing irrigation schemes need to be reha- operational and will not be added to the 13,200 bilitated, particularly the NEPAD and FAO study hectares. This scheme was situated along the Zam- (2004b), as well as a study from the Minister of bezi River, 65 km downstream of Kariba Gorge. Agriculture in 2008. Consequently, it is assumed in The estate was established by the Chirundu Sugar this study that 80 percent of the FAO (1999) 175,000 Estates Ltd, a company that was started in Decem- equipped hectares are still irrigated today and that ber 1953. The company acquired 2,300 hectares 20 percent are no longer irrigated and need reha- of land on the south bank of the Zambezi River bilitation. (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of The Shangani/Gwayi River Basin (I.06.09), Zimbabwe 2009a). It is difficult to establish whether whose area is 54,610 km², is situated inside the the development of this estate was related to the Matabeleland North Province which covers 75,025 establishment of Kariba Dam. km². The Manyame River Basin (I.02.01) includes ap- It is therefore assumed that the irrigation area is proximately half of the Mashonaland West Province currently 1,300 hectares in the Shangani River Basin, plus half of the Mashonaland Central Province. It is where 2,243 hectares represent the irrigated area in estimated that the irrigation area is currently 22,092 the Matabeleland North Province (FAO 1999): hectares, where 22,174 hectares and 33,057 hectares, respectively, represent the irrigation areas in the 54,610 80% x x 2,243 = 1,300 Mashonaland Central and Mashonaland West Prov- 75,025 ince (FAO 1999). The breakdown of irrigated areas The Sanyati River and Sengwa River basins by crop in 1999, from FAO AQUASTAT database, (I.06.10), whose areas cover 43,500 and 25,000 km², is used for the present study: respectively, are principally shared between two 1 provinces: Midlands (49 166 km²) and Mashonaland 80%x x (22,174 + 33,057) = 22,092 ha West (57,441 km²). The I.06.10 irrigation abstraction 2 point also represents all the irrigation abstractions The Zimbabwean part of the Luenha River Ba- inside the basins of Zimbabwean rivers entering sin (I.02.05) covers around half of the Mashonaland Lake Kariba. It is therefore assumed that the irriga- Central Province plus half of the Mashonaland East tion area is currently 21,600 hectares, where 8,962 Province. It is estimated that the irrigation area is hectares and 33,057 hectares, respectively, represent currently 12,653 hectares, where 22,174 hectares and

96 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

9,458 hectares, respectively, represent the irrigation • The Binga scheme (upstream of Kariba Lake), areas in the Mashonaland Central and Mashonaland which could pass from 18 hectares (now, com- East provinces (FAO 1999). The breakdown of irri- munity irrigation) to 400 hectares, and next gated areas by crop in 1999, from FAO AQUASTAT 40,000 hectares (maize, beans), but it appears database, is also applied here: that this extension already includes the Kariba lakeshore project (see below); 1 80% x x (22,174 + 9,458) = 12,653 ha • Extension of banana schemes around Lake 2 Kariba (up to 2,000 hectares), but it appears Abstraction point I.06.12 that this extension already includes the Kariba lakeshore project (see below); Water for irrigation was not a priority in the fea- • The Kariba lakeshore project is a short-term sibility and design studies for Kariba Dam, which (three to five years) project that covers part of might explain why little irrigation development Matabeleland North up to part of Mashonaland has occurred in Zimbabwe and Zambia using the West provinces of Zimbabwe. It stretches about water from Lake Kariba. To date, only two irrigation 280 km from Mulibizi River in the Binga area schemes have been established on the Zimbabwean upstream of Lake Kariba to Charara, close to side of the Lake (I.06.12). These are the Charara Kariba town. The project area is about 92,000 Estates, a privately owned commercial irrigation hectares (source, given to the consultant by the scheme with 50 hectares of irrigation for the pro- director of irrigation, Ministry of Agriculture duction of bananas and horticultural crops, and and Rural Development of Zimbabwe 2009b); the Gatshe Gatshe community smallholder irriga- and tion scheme, with an irrigated area of 18 hectares • The Zambezi River Basin irrigation project, which is being managed by smallholders (maize which covers nearly 400,000 hectares in northern and vegetables). Zimbabwe (source, given to the consultant by the director of irrigation, Ministry of Agriculture A1.8.4 Identified irrigation development and Rural Development of Zimbabwe 2009b). projects Abstraction point I.06.02 A number of identified future irrigation projects in Zimbabwe were inventoried, especially during The identified projects taken into consideration in the national consultation workshop September this small subbasin (abstraction point I.06.02) up- 25, 2009. Firstly, they concern the rehabilitation stream of Victoria Falls on the Zimbabwean side, of existing irrigation schemes. As previously represent a total of 605 hectares (half of the Zimba- estimated, these rehabilitations should affect 20 bwean irrigation area development planned in the percent of the existing equipped area, or an ad- mid-Zambezi agricultural water management for ditional 25 percent of the existing irrigation area food security program). calculated above. In 2004, for instance, the tar- geted area for rehabilitation was 25,000 hectares Abstraction points I.06.06 and I.06.08 in all of Zimbabwe (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Zimbabwe 2004), so that The identified projects in the small subbasin (ab- it is relatively normal to find 17,000 hectares of straction point I.06.08) between Batoka Gorge and rehabilitation in the Zimbabwean part of the sub- Lake Kariba, Zimbabwean side, represent a total of basin. Secondly, some specific sites were identified 605 hectares (half of the Zimbabwean irrigation area by the consultant, together with the Zimbabwean development planned in the mid-Zambezi agricul- Direction of Irrigation: tural water management for food security program). No project was inventoried in the small subbasin • The mid-Zambezi agricultural water manage- between Victoria Falls and the projected site for the ment for food security program; Batoka Gorge Dam (abstraction point I.06.06).

97 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 75 68 — 500 area 1,300 Total Total 21,600 13,200 22,092 12,653 71,488 equipped 86 104 — 694 area 1,803 Total Total 29,962 18,310 30,644 17,551 99,154 irrigated irrigated 5 31 81 — — 818 784 1,338 1,368 4,424 Tobacco 10 66 — 171 — 2,843 1,737 2,908 1,665 Cotton 9,400 8 50 — 131 — 2,174 1,329 2,224 1,274 7,189 Wet season crops Wet Soybeans 7 46 18 — 121 2,007 1,226 2,053 1,176 Maize 6,654 5 32 84 — — 852 817 1,394 1,426 4,610 Pasture 2 16 42 — 697 — 426 713 408 Citrus 2,305 25 25 — — — — — — — Bananas 4 24 63 — — 639 613 1,046 1,069 3,457 Coffee 2 16 42 — 697 — 426 713 408 Tea 2,305 21 — 137 356 — 5,920 3,618 6,055 3,468 crops 19,576 Perennial Perennial Sugarcane 7 48 18 — 126 2,090 1,277 2,137 1,224 6,927 Other 5 32 84 25 — 852 817 1,394 1,426 4,635 (tomatoes) Vegetables Vegetables Dry season crops 29 — 194 503 — 8,362 5,110 8,552 4,898 wheat Winter Winter 27,648 I.06.02 I.06.06 I.06.08 I.06.09 I.06.10 I.06.12 I.04.02 I.02.01 I.02.05 point Irrigation Irrigation abstraction Name Livingstone before before Livingstone Falls Victoria Between Victoria Victoria Between and Batoka Falls Between Batoka Between Batoka and Kariba Gwayi Sanyati Kariba Dam Mupata Manyane Luenya Table A1.36. Current irrigation areas in Zimbabwe areas irrigation A1.36. Current Table Control point 8 10 12 13 14 15 24 28 32 : During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter wheat can be cultivated, with supplementary irrigation, with maize (24 percent), soybeans (26 percent), cotton (34 percent), and tobacco (16 percent). and tobacco (34 percent), cotton (26 percent), soybeans (24 percent), with supplementary with maize irrigation, can be cultivated, wheat with winter cultivated season, the areas : During the wet Note Total

98 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions

Abstraction points I.06.09, I.06.10, I.04.02, crops as the current irrigated area. One other pro- I.02.01, and I.02.05 jected irrigation scheme has also been inventoried in this subbasin: the projected Mwenje Nyarumwe The identified projects in the Shangani/Gwayi River irrigation scheme, with 500 hectares, half wheat and Basin (abstraction point I.06.09) represent 336 hect- beans during the dry season and maize during the ares (20 percent of the current equipped area) plus wet season (AGRITEX 1998). 230 hectares (Tshatshani scheme), or a total of 566 hectares. The identified projects in the Sanyati/Sen- Abstraction point I.06.12 gwa River Basin (abstraction point I.06.10) represent 4,202 hectares (20 percent of the current equipped The Zambezi River Basin irrigation project consists area) plus 1,000 hectares (Mazvidadei scheme), or a of two self-contained shoreline projects and the total of 5,202 hectares. The identified projects taken Chirundu-Muzarabani project (385,000 hectares into consideration for the abstraction point I.04.02 itself). They should take most of their water de- represent 3,300 hectares (20 percent of the current mand from Lake Kariba (but also from some other equipped area). reservoirs to be built and from groundwater). Ac- The rehabilitation of the existing irrigation cording to current investigations by the Department schemes in the Zimbabwean Manyame subbasin of Irrigation in the project area, there are plans to (abstraction point I.02.01) represent an area equal to develop more than 5,000 hectares of land in the 20 percent of the equipped area, or 25 percent of the Mbire and Muzarabani districts utilizing flows from current irrigated area: 5,523 hectares with the same the Zambezi River. These projects include Dande, breakdown of crops as the current irrigated area. Dandito, Arishibowa, and Dadzi. The planned ir- Some other projected irrigation schemes have also rigation method will be 80 percent pressurized and been inventoried in this subbasin I.02.01: 20 percent gravity irrigation. If it goes forward, this irrigation project will • The Mushumbi Pools ARDA scheme extension be implemented later than the Kariba lakeshore of an estimated1,000 hectares of cotton during project, so the consultant will consider only the the wet season and probably 1,000 hectares of Kariba lakeshore project as an identified short-term winter crops if the irrigation is secured (Euro- irrigation project in addition to the 5,000 hectares of consult Mott MacDonald 2007); and the Zambezi irrigation project. • The 1,000 hectare Mazvikadei irrigation scheme The Kariba lakeshore project consists of vari- extension (NEPAD and FAO 2004b). ous blocks with intakes from the rivers lateral to Lake Kariba, and Lake Kariba itself. Therefore, for The rehabilitation of the existing irrigation simplification, the model assumes that all of the schemes in the Zimbabwean Luenha subbasin project’s water abstractions are taken from Lake (I.02.05) represent an area equal to 20 percent of the Kariba (I.06.12) even if in reality some of these equipped area, or 25 percent of the current irrigated abstractions are taken from small-lake influents or area: 3,163 hectares with the same breakdown of from an upstream part of the Lake.

99 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 605 605 336 230 4,202 1,000 5,000 92,000 area Total Total equipped 839 839 466 319 Continued on next page Continued 5,829 1,387 6,936 area Total Total 127,615 irrigated irrigated 37 37 21 14 62 260 310 5,698 Tobacco 80 80 44 30 553 132 658 12,109 Cotton 61 61 34 23 423 101 503 9,260 Wet season crops Wet Soybeans 56 56 31 21 93 390 465 8,548 Maize 39 39 22 15 65 271 323 5,938 Pasture 7 20 20 11 32 136 161 2,969 Citrus 29 29 16 11 48 203 242 4,454 Coffee 7 Perennial crops Perennial 20 20 11 32 136 161 2,969 Tea 92 63 166 166 274 1,152 1,370 25,216 Sugarcane 59 59 33 22 97 407 484 8,900 Other 39 39 22 15 65 271 323 5,938 (tomatoes) Vegetables Vegetables Dry season crops 89 234 234 130 387 1,627 1,936 35,615 wheat Winter Winter Project Mid-Zambezi Mid-Zambezi water agricultural for management securityfood programme Mid-Zambezi Mid-Zambezi water agricultural for management securityfood programme Rehabilitation / Rehabilitation of the optimization – use of reservoirs 20% of concerning the equipped area Tshatshani scheme Tshatshani Rehabilitation/ Rehabilitation/ of the optimization – use of reservoirs 20% of concerning the equipped area Mazvidadei scheme Basin Zambezi project - irrigation short - current term by investigations the department in the of irrigation project area The Kariba The - Project Lakeshore short term point I.06.02 I.06.08 I.06.09 I.06.09 I.06.10 I.06.10 I.06.12 I.06.12 Irrigation Irrigation abstraction Name Livingstone Livingstone Victoria before Falls Between and Batoka Kariba Gwayi Gwayi Sanyati Sanyati Kariba Dam Kariba Dam Table A1.37. Identified irrigation projects irrigation A1.37. Identified in Zimbabwe Table Control point 8 12 13 13 14 14 15 15

100 Annex 1. Modeling Irrigation Development Scenarios – Riparian Country Policies, Data, Estimates, and Assumptions 500 3,300 1,000 1,000 5,523 3,163 area Total Total 118,464 equipped 694 4,578 1,387 1,387 7,661 4,387 area Total Total irrigated irrigated 164,324 62 62 31 204 342 196 7,338 Tobacco 66 434 132 132 727 416 Cotton 15,592 50 332 101 101 556 318 Wet season crops Wet 11,924 Soybeans 93 93 46 307 513 294 Maize 11,006 65 65 32 213 356 204 7,646 Pasture 32 32 16 107 178 102 3,823 Citrus 48 48 24 160 267 153 Coffee 5,735 Perennial crops Perennial 32 32 16 107 178 102 Tea 3,823 905 274 274 137 867 1,514 32,470 Sugarcane 97 97 48 319 534 306 Other 11,460 (continued) 65 65 32 213 356 204 7,646 (tomatoes) Vegetables Vegetables Dry season crops 387 387 194 1,278 2,138 1,224 wheat 45,860 Winter Winter Project Rehabilitation / Rehabilitation of the optimization – use of reservoirs 20% of concerning the equipped area Mushumbi Pools Mushumbi Pools Scheme ARDA Extension Mazvikadei Scheme Irrigation Extension Rehabilitation / Rehabilitation of the optimization – use of reservoirs 20% of concerning the equipped area Mwenje Nyarumwe Nyarumwe Mwenje Scheme Irrigation Rehabilitation / Rehabilitation of the optimization – use of reservoirs 20% of concerning the equipped area point I.04.02 I.02.01 I.02.01 I.02.01 I.02.06 I.02.06 Irrigation Irrigation abstraction Name Mupata Manyane Manyane Manyane Luenya Luenya Table A1.37. Identified irrigation projects irrigation A1.37. Identified in Zimbabwe Table Control point 24 28 28 28 32 32 Total : During the wet season, the areas cultivated with winter wheat can be cultivated with supplementary irrigation with maize (24 percent), soybeans (26 percent), cotton (34 percent), and tobacco (16 percent). and tobacco (34 percent), cotton (26 percent), soybeans (24 percent), with supplementary with maize can irrigation be cultivated wheat with winter cultivated season, the areas : During the wet Note

101

Annex 2. Identified Irrigation Projects and High-Level Irrigation Projects

A2.1 Identified Irrigation Projects (IP) and Associated Abstractions

The additional equipped irrigation area of the identified projects comes to approximately 336,000 hectares (table A2.1). When this area is added to the existing equipped area of the current situation (183,000 hectares), the sum reaches an estimated 519,000 hectares. The additional average irrigated area (sum of winter, summer, and perennial) is approximately 514,000 hectares which together with the current average irrigated area of roughly 260,000 hectares brings the total to 774,000 hectares. The additional area includes 140,000 hectares of additional irrigated perennial crops (78 percent sugarcane), approximately 41 percent of the total equipped area. Without the perennial crops, the projected irrigation areas have a mean cropping intensity of 195 percent. Winter wheat represents 37 percent of the projected irrigated winter crop areas. Table A2.4 indicates the annual water abstraction required for the identified projects. The total abstraction requirements are approximately 5,885 million m3, or approximately 4.5 percent of the estimated available run-off over the Zambezi River Basin (129,689 million m3 per year).10 Because these supplementary abstractions represent approximately 1.8 times the current irrigation abstractions, irrigation abstractions in the Zambezi River Basin may well triple in the short to medium term.

A2.2 High-Level Irrigation Projects (HLI) and Associated Abstractions

To approach the possible limits of the Zambezi River Basin’s irrigation potential, or to show some effects of any high-level irrigation development scenario, a ‘high-level irrigation’ (HLI) scenario was modeled based on information gathered in the riparian countries concerning

10 Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007. In this rapid assessment, the irrigation abstractions needs are estimated to be 1.5 million m3. This value was probably underestimated because it has been calculated from 1990s data, where for instance, fewer irrigated areas for perennial crops were taken into account.

103 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A2.1. Additional areas of identified irrigation projects, by subbasin and country (ha) Irrigated (ha) Equipped (ha) Dry season (ha) Wet season (ha) Perennial (ha) Subbasin Kabompo (13) 10,719 6,300 4,419 4,419 1,881 Upper Zambezi (12) 5,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 Lungúe Bungo (11) 625 500 375 125 125 Luanginga (10) 5,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 Barotse (9) 12,413 7,008 5,405 5,405 1,603 Cuando/Chobe (8) 450 300 300 150 0 Kafue (7) 20,520 13,610 6,910 6,910 6,700 Kariba (6) 184,388 119,592 64,796 69,096 50,496 Luangwa (5) 11,063 6,130 4,933 4,933 1,197 Mupata (4) 8,566 5,860 2,706 2,706 3,154 Shire River - Lake Malawi/ 101,166 59,511 48,331 41,655 11,180 Niassa/Nyasa (3) Tete (2) 55,621 30,336 25,285 25,285 5,051 Zambezi Delta (1) 99,110 77,055 22,055 22,055 55,000 Total 514,641 336,202 190,515 182,738 141,387 Country Angola 10,625 10,500 5,375 125 5,125 Botswana 20,300 13,800 6,500 10,800 3,000 Malawi 78,026 47,911 36,791 30,115 11,120 Mozambique 137,410 96,205 41,205 41,205 55,000 Namibia 450 300 300 150 0 Tanzania 23,140 11,600 11,540 11,540 60 Zambia 61,259 37,422 23,837 23,837 13,585 Zimbabwe 183,431 118,464 64,967 64,967 53,497 Total 514,641 336,202 190,515 182,738 141,387

some long-term irrigation development strategies area to 1,730,000 hectares (i.e., the sum of current (table A2.5). This also allowed for incorporating situation, IPs and HLI projects). The additional potential in terms of water availability and the average irrigated area (sum of winter, summer, and more long-term plans for irrigation in the riparian perennial areas) is roughly 2,020,000 hectares; bring- countries. These figures are based on estimates ing the basin total average irrigated area to approxi- provided by the riparian countries and are used in mately 2,800,000 hectares (table A2.7.) It includes this analysis to mark the upper limit of irrigated 360,000 hectares of additional irrigated perennial agriculture in the Zambezi River Basin. The degree crops (65 percent of sugarcane), or approximately of realism in achieving such high level of irrigation 30 percent of the total additional equipped area. development cannot be assessed. Without the perennial crops, the projected irrigation As shown in table A2.7, the additional equipped areas have a mean cropping intensity of 197 percent. irrigation area of the HLI scenario is approximately Winter wheat represents 36 percent of the projected 1,210,000 hectares, bringing the basin total equipped irrigated winter crop areas.

104 Annex 2. Identified Irrigation Projects and High-Level Irrigation Projects 500 300 6,300 5,000 5,000 7,008 6,130 5,860 Total Total 59,511 30,336 77,055 13,610 336,202 119,592 area (ha) area equipped 625 450 5,000 5,000 8,566 Total Total 10,719 55,621 99,110 12,413 20,520 11,063 101,166 514,641 184,388 irrigated irrigated area (ha) area 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21% Rice 15,950 22,055 38,005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6% 859 693 561 321 6,688 1,474 10,596 Tobacco 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 434 12% 2,136 5,108 Cotton 21,444 13,686 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3% 1,439 1,212 4,951 2,300 Sorghum Wet season crops Wet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 332 16% 5,356 3,853 6,710 28,717 12,466 Soybeans 0 0 0 0 0 0 523 23% 1,596 8,614 1,042 3,019 Maize 12,080 41,994 15,120 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 7% 722 613 213 1,472 7,136 Pasture 10,158 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 0% Bananas 0 0 0 0 0 7% 409 361 125 120 584 670 Citrus 1,601 6,472 10,341 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5% 542 Perennial crops Perennial 6,835 5,033 1,260 Coffee 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 3% 361 107 Tea 3,883 3,356 0 0 0 0 0 0 905 78% 3,066 5,000 6,570 Sugar 11,120 55,000 28,499 110,160 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 70 8% 8% 819 319 2,765 1,082 Other 15,352 10,295 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 4% 6,676 6,756 cotton Winter Winter 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3% 942 235 Beans 4,075 5,252 0 0 0 125 150 120 370 777 11% 12% 1,928 1,145 4,722 3,801 8,541 21,680 Vegetables 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dry season crops 75 13% 5,000 maize 20,070 25,145 Winter Winter 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 250 150 23% rice 5,000 15,950 22,055 43,405 Winter Winter 0 0 0 0 0 0 38% 2,455 1,603 6,710 4,258 1,610 wheat 15,330 72,926 Winter Winter 40,960 % of winter % of winter crops % of summer crops Shire River - River Shire Malawi/ Lake (3) Niassa/Nyasa Kabompo (13) Table A2.2. Identified irrigation project, by subbasin and crop (additional ha) by subbasin and crop project, irrigation A2.2. Identified Table Subbasin % of perennial % of perennial crops Tete (2) Tete Upper Zambezi Upper Zambezi (12) Zambezi Delta Zambezi (1) Lungúe Bungo Lungúe (11) Total Luanginga (10) Luanginga Barotse (9) Barotse Cuando/Chobe Cuando/Chobe (8) Kafue (7) Kariba (6) Luangwa (5) Luangwa Mupata (4) Mupata : One hectare of vegetables only appears in the dry-season column in the above table even though vegetables can be cultivated during the wet season as well. during the wet can be cultivated though vegetables table even only appears in the dry-season: One hectare of vegetables in the above Note column

105 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 300 Total Total 10,500 13,800 47,911 96,205 11,600 37,422 area (ha) area 118,464 336,202 equipped 450 Total Total 10,625 20,300 78,026 23,140 61,259 irrigated irrigated 137,410 183,431 area (ha) area 514,641 0 0 0 0 0 Rice 6,141 9,809 22,055 38,005 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,258 7,338 10,596 Tobacco 0 0 0 80 277 1,859 3,636 Cotton 15,592 21,444 0 0 0 0 92 2,300 1,346 1,212 4,951 Wet season crops Wet Sorghum 0 0 208 2,000 5,149 2,727 6,710 11,924 28,717 Soybeans 0 0 577 5,000 7,575 6,333 Maize 11,503 11,006 41,994 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,511 7,646 10,158 Pasture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Bananas 0 0 0 0 125 3,000 3,393 3,823 Citrus 10,341 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,101 5,735 6,835 Perennial crops Perennial Coffee 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 Tea 3,823 3,883 0 0 0 5,000 6,570 Sugar 11,120 55,000 32,470 110,160 0 0 0 0 0 2,765 1,126 Other 11,460 15,352 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 6,676 6,756 cotton Winter Winter 0 0 0 0 0 942 235 Beans 4,075 5,252 125 150 577 1,500 1,351 4,000 6,330 7,646 21,680 Vegetables 0 0 0 0 Dry season crops 75 5,000 1,154 maize Winter Winter 18,916 25,145 0 0 0 150 rice 5,250 6,141 9,809 Winter Winter 22,055 43,405 0 0 0 0 0 wheat Winter Winter 11,000 16,066 45,860 72,926 Table A2.3. Identified irrigation projects, by country projects, irrigation (additional ha) A2.3. Identified and crop Table Country Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Total : One hectare of vegetables only appears in the dry-season column in the above table even though vegetables can be cultivated during the wet season as well. during the wet can be cultivated though vegetables table even only appears in the dry-season: One hectare of vegetables in the above Note column

106 Annex 2. Identified Irrigation Projects and High-Level Irrigation Projects

Table A2.4. Additional annual water abstraction requirements for identified irrigation projects (1,000 3m /year) Subbasin Water abstraction (‘000 m3/year) % Kabompo (13) 86,679 1% Upper Zambezi (12) 86,446 1% Lungúe Bungo (11) 7,837 0% Luanginga (10) 97,329 2% Barotse (9) 120,345 2% Cuando/Chobe (8) 5,165 0% Kafue (7) 175,070 3% Kariba (6) 2,640,984 45% Luangwa (5) 63,056 1% Mupata (4) 133,313 2% Shire River - Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (3) 766,639 13% Tete (2) 460,950 8% Zambezi Delta (1) 1,241,288 21% Total 5,885,102 100% Country Angola 191,612 3% Botswana 177,682 3% Malawi 612,574 10% Mozambique 1,557,871 26% Namibia 5,165 0% Tanzania 154,065 3% Zambia 546,330 9% Zimbabwe 2,639,803 45% Total 5,885,102 100%

Table A2.10 displays the annual water abstrac- over the Zambezi River Basin (compared with tion needs for this high-level irrigation scenario 4.5 percent for the identified projects run-off of (supplemental irrigation compared with the IP 129,689 million m3 per year), scenario): • Because these supplemental abstractions represent approximately nine times the current • The annual water abstractions represent a irrigation abstractions, irrigation abstractions total of 20,200 million m3, or approximately could grow by a factor of 10 in the Zambezi 16 percent of the estimated11 available run-off River Basin over the long-term.

11 Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007. In this rapid assessment, the irrigation abstraction needs were estimated to be 1.5 hm3. This value was probably underestimated because it was calculated from 1990s data, with fewer irrigation areas planted to perennial crops taken into account.

107 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Figure A2.1. Additional monthly water abstraction requirements for identified irrigation projects (1,000 3m /month)

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0 OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Month

Table A2.5. Long-term high-level irrigation development in riparian countries Angola According to the Department for Irrigation, 10,000 hectares of potential irrigation (mixed crop) could be developed in each Angolan subbasin. Botswana The Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project Stage 2 is equivalent to Stage 1. Malawi So far under the Green Belt initiative (Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development 2009b), sites totaling 340,381 hectares have been identified as sites for new development across all the regions. These sites were preliminarily assessed for suitability of various crops under irrigation. Mozambique Information on Mozambique’s long-term irrigation plans was not available. The high-level irrigation development scenario for Mozam- bique is likely to be similar to those in neighboring countries. Namibia The Caprivi irrigation project consists of 12,000 hectares of sugar and 3,000 hectares of other crops. Tanzania According to the Department for Irrigation, there are 50,473 hectares of high-potential irrigated areas. Zambia and Irrigation development based on the Zambezi River Basin irrigation project and the Kariba lakeshore project (long-term stages of these Zimbabwe projects), which represent approximately 400,000 supplementary hectares. Future abstractions will be taken mainly from Lake Kariba. Some other parts of the Basin could also be considered, such as the Upper Zambezi River Basin in Zambia or the Kafue subbasin.

108 Annex 2. Identified Irrigation Projects and High-Level Irrigation Projects

Table A2.6. High-level irrigation: additional equipped irrigation areas (ha) Additional equipped irrigation Country area for HLI (ha) % Comment Angola 30,000 2 10,000 ha per subbasin with irrigation (see IP) Botswana 13,800 1 Stage 2 of the transfer Malawi Identified sites for long-term development, mostly downstream of 300,000 25 Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa Mozambique 100,000 from Cahora Bassa, 100,000 upstream of the Shire confluence, and 300,000 25 100,000 downstream of the Shire confluence, all on the Zambezi River Namibia 15,000 1 Caprivi Sugar project Tanzania 50,000 4 Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin Zambia 220,000 ha Kariba, 25,000 ha Kafue, 25,000 ha Lunsemfwa, 290,000 24 10,000 ha Kabompo, and 10,000 ha Barotse Zimbabwe 210,000 17 Kariba Reservoir Total 1,208,000 100

Table A2.7. High-level irrigation areas in the Zambezi River Basin, by subbasin and country (ha) Subbasin Irrigated Equipped Dry season Wet season Perennial Kabompo (13) 17,014 10,000 7,014 7,014 2,986 Upper Zambezi (12) 12,500 10,000 7,500 2,500 2,500 Lungúe Bungo (11) 12,500 10,000 7,500 2,500 2,500 Luanginga (10) 12,500 10,000 7,500 2,500 2,500 Barotse (9) 17,713 10,000 7,713 7,713 2,287 Cuando/Chobe (8) 18,000 15,000 3,000 3,000 12,000 Kafue (7) 37,400 25,000 12,400 12,400 12,600 Kariba (6) 719,906 443,800 276,106 280,406 163,394 Luangwa (5) 44,957 25,000 19,957 19,957 5,043 Mupata (4) 0 0 0 0 0 Shire River – Lake 604,630 350,000 273,110 254,630 76,890 Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (3) Tete (2) 400,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 0 Zambezi Delta (1) 125,000 100,000 25,000 25,000 75,000 Total 2,022,120 1,208,800 846,801 817,620 357,699 Country Angola 37,500 30,000 22,500 7,500 7,500 Botswana 20,300 13,800 6,500 10,800 3,000 Malawi 504,888 300,000 223,369 204,888 76,631 Mozambique 525,000 300,000 225,000 225,000 75,000 Namibia 18,000 15,000 3,000 3,000 12,000 Tanzania 99,741 50,000 49,741 49,741 259 Zambia 491,524 290,000 201,524 201,524 88,476 Zimbabwe 325,166 210,000 115,166 115,166 94,834 Total 2,022,120 1,208,800 846,801 817,620 357,699

109 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 0 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 15,000 25,000 25,000 443,800 350,000 200,000 100,000 Total Total 1,208,800 area (ha) area equipped 0 17,014 12,500 12,500 12,500 17,713 18,000 37,400 44,957 719,906 604,630 400,000 125,000 Total Total 2,022,120 irrigated irrigated area (ha) area 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12% Rice 69,303 25,000 94,303 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6% 801 1,364 6,044 43,037 51,246 Tobacco 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 150 11% 27,640 25,523 36,000 89,314 Cotton 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3% 2,300 10,162 12,000 24,462 Sorghum Wet season crops Wet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11% 12,000 23,137 27,690 27,000 89,827 Soybeans 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29% 2,533 1,487 80,281 10,197 70,545 75,000 Maize 240,043 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 19% 2,337 2,155 65,035 69,528 Pasture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% Bananas 0 0 0 0 0 649 250 10% 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,285 2,888 23,857 37,429 Citrus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3% Perennial crops Perennial 10,166 10,166 Coffee 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2% 259 Tea 6,777 7,036 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65% 12,000 12,350 57,559 76,631 75,000 Sugar 233,540 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 9% 591 10% 1,300 48,916 28,757 79,566 Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2% 150 18,481 18,631 cotton Winter Winter 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8% 833 14,015 50,000 64,848 Beans 0 0 250 18% 18% 1,817 2,500 2,500 2,500 5,424 3,000 3,125 55,095 22,649 50,000 148,859 Vegetables 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dry season crops 15% 5,000 maize 119,906 124,906 Winter Winter 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13% 5,000 5,000 5,000 rice 69,303 25,000 Winter Winter 109,303 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36% 3,897 2,287 12,000 15,408 wheat Winter Winter 167,095 100,000 300,687 Table A2.8. High-level irrigation: crops by season and subbasin (ha) by crops irrigation: A2.8. High-level Table Subbasin Kabompo (13) - Upper Zam (12) bezi Lungúe Lungúe Bungo (11) Luanginga Luanginga (10) Barotse (9) Barotse Cuando/ (8) Chobe Kafue (7) Kariba (6) Luangwa (5) Luangwa Mupata (4) Mupata River- Shire Malawi/ Lake Niassa/Nyasa (3) Tete (2) Tete Zambezi Delta Zambezi (1) Total % of winter % of winter crops % of summer crops - % of peren nial crops : One hectare of vegetables only appears in the dry-season column in the above table even though vegetables can be cultivated during the wet season as well. during the wet can be cultivated though vegetables table even only appears in the dry-season: One hectare of vegetables in the above Note column

110 Annex 2. Identified Irrigation Projects and High-Level Irrigation Projects 30,000 13,800 15,000 50,000 300,000 300,000 290,000 210,000 Total Total 1,208,800 area (ha) area equipped 37,500 20,300 18,000 99,741 504,888 525,000 491,524 325,166 Total Total irrigated irrigated 2,022,120 area (ha) area 0 0 0 0 0 Rice 27,023 25,000 42,280 94,303 0 0 0 0 0 0 38,238 13,007 51,246 Tobacco 0 0 0 150 1,194 24,329 36,000 27,640 Cotton 89,314 0 0 0 0 398 2,300 9,764 12,000 24,462 Sorghum Wet season crops Wet 0 0 895 2,000 26,795 27,000 12,000 21,137 89,827 Soybeans 0 0 5,000 2,487 68,058 75,000 69,987 19,511 Maize 240,043 0 0 0 0 0 0 55,974 13,555 69,528 Pasture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bananas 0 0 0 0 7,500 3,000 6,777 20,152 37,429 Citrus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Perennial crops Perennial Coffee 10,166 10,166 0 0 0 0 0 0 259 Tea 6,777 7,036 0 0 0 76,631 75,000 12,000 12,350 57,559 Sugar 233,540 0 0 0 0 0 28,757 30,493 20,316 Other 79,566 0 0 0 0 0 0 150 cotton 18,481 Winter Winter 18,631 0 0 0 0 0 833 14,015 50,000 64,848 Beans 7,500 1,500 3,000 2,487 20,162 50,000 50,656 13,555 148,859 Vegetables 0 0 0 0 0 Dry season crops 5,000 4,974 maize Winter Winter 114,932 124,906 0 0 0 0 rice 15,000 27,023 25,000 42,280 Winter Winter 109,303 0 0 0 0 0 81,295 wheat Winter Winter 100,000 119,392 300,687 Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Table A2.9. High-level irrigation: crops by season and country by crops (ha) irrigation: A2.9. High-level Table Country Total Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe : One hectare of vegetables only appears in the dry-season column in the above table even though vegetables can be cultivated during the wet season as well. during the wet can be cultivated though vegetables table even only appears in the dry-season: One hectare of vegetables in the above Note column

111 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A2.10. Additional annual water abstraction requirements for high-level irrigation projects (1,000 m3/year) Subbasin Water abstraction (‘000 m3/year) % Kabompo (13) 137,586 0.68% Upper Zambezi (12) 151,568 0.75% Lungúe Bungo (11) 156,735 0.78% Luanginga (10) 190,692 0.94% Barotse (9) 171,725 0.85% Cuando/Chobe (8) 343,780 1.70% Kafue (7) 323,960 1.60% Kariba (6) 9,770,291 48.35% Luangwa (5) 271,145 1.34% Mupata (4) 0 0.00% Shire River - Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (3) 4,441,784 21.98% Tete (2) 2,624,280 12.99% Zambezi Delta (1) 1,623,150 8.03% Total 20,206,697 100.00% Country Angola 498,996 2.47% Botswana 152,782 0.76% Malawi 3,777,710 18.70% Mozambique 4,247,430 21.02% Namibia 343,780 1.70% Tanzania 664,074 3.29% Zambia 5,625,517 27.84% Zimbabwe 4,896,408 24.23% Total 20,206,697 100.00%

Figure A2.2. Additional monthly water abstraction requirement of high-level irrigation projects (1,000 m3/month)

4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 /month 3 2,000,000

1,000 m 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Month

112 Annex 3. Estimating Crop-Related Water Requirements

To estimate the direct hydrological impacts of each irrigation development scenario on the Basin system, irrigation abstractions for each scenario need to be estimated.

A3.1 Methodology

Crop water requirements can be estimated by calculating the crop evapotranspiration (ETc) minus “effective rainfall” (Peff). FAO (1998) stipulate that crop evapotranspiration corresponds to the water needs of the crop which may be satisfied by both rainfall and supplementary man-made irrigation. The crop evapotranspiration is calculated using the crop coefficient approach: multiplying the reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) with a crop coefficient (Kc).

Etc = ETo x Kc ETc is the crop evapotranspiration [mm d–1] Kc is the crop coefficient [dimensionless] ETo is the reference crop evapotranspiration [mm d–1].

The “effective rainfall” is the water from rainfall that the crop can use (can be defined as a function of the rainfall). The amount of water that must be brought to the crop by the irrigation scheme is therefore: crop irrigation water need = ETc – Peff (mm per time unit). The abstraction requirement at the irrigation scheme’s water intake equals the crop irrigation water need divided by the scheme efficiency, which represents the losses in the system. Finally, a reservoir may allow water regulation at the water intake so that real abstractions from the river may be regulated throughout the year. However, additional losses caused by direct evaporation from the reservoir must be taken into account.

113 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A3.1. Monthly ETos per subbasin (mm) Subbasin Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Kabompo (13) 108 97 111 112 102 91 98 117 134 144 116 107 1,337 Upper Zambezi (12) 112 101 110 113 110 102 111 133 147 143 116 112 1,410 Lungúe Bungo (11) 116 105 115 116 119 110 118 138 150 146 120 119 1,472 Luanginga (10) 127 114 128 129 132 123 136 160 183 175 135 124 1,666 Barotse (9) 132 117 135 125 116 98 107 134 159 172 147 136 1,578 Cuando/Chobe (8) 144 130 136 118 110 96 102 129 155 174 155 150 1,599 Kafue (7) 121 109 124 119 111 98 107 134 157 176 140 124 1,520 Kariba (6) 148 132 146 134 122 105 116 147 184 215 178 153 1,780 Luangwa (5) 119 104 123 120 113 98 106 132 160 189 156 135 1,555 Mupata (4) 136 118 140 130 121 105 113 145 180 206 163 151 1,708 Shire River - Lake Malawi/ 116 106 115 112 105 90 98 116 138 166 150 124 1,436 Niassa/Nyasa (3) Tete (2) 140 126 139 123 111 92 101 130 162 195 172 152 1,643 Zambezi Delta (1) 163 144 145 123 109 90 98 121 143 178 173 165 1,652

A3.2 Reference Crop MSIOA study. For instance, table A3.2. illustrates the Evapotranspirations and growth period lengths used for winter wheat in the Zambezi River Basin. Crop Coefficient A3.2.2 Selecting corresponding Kc The ETos used (calculated with the Penman-Monte- coefficients for growth stages of crop ith method) are those given in the ZACPLAN Sector Study 3 (Patterns of Land Use and Conservation Changes in vegetation and groundcover conse- Practices). quentially mean that the crop coefficient, Kc, varies The determination of crop coefficient is done in during the growing period. The trends in Kc during two steps. Firstly, identifying the crop growth stages the growing period are represented in the crop coef- and determining their lengths, and secondly, select- ficient curve. Only three values for Kc are required ing the corresponding Kc coefficients for each stage. to describe and construct the crop coefficient curve:

the initial stage (Kcini), the mid-season stage (Kcmid),

A3.2.1 Identifying, and determining length and at the end of the late season stage (Kcend) values. for growth stages of crops The Kc for the development period is assumed

to increase linearly from the values Kcini and Kcmid. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 24 provides The Kc values are given in the FAO Irrigation and general lengths for the four distinct growth stages Drainage Paper 56, and the values applied in the and the total growing period for various types of climates and locations. The dates of the growth period may be adjusted using crop calendars available in the FAO database (figure A3.1). Table A3.2. Crop calendar for winter wheat The four growth periods are: initial period, development period, middle period, and late Sowing Initial Development Middle Late Crop date period period period period period. The period lengths and the sowing dates were simplified to fit to the decade scale used in the Winter wheat May-10 30 30 40 30

114 Annex 3. Estimating Crop-Related Water Requirements

Figure A3.1. Crop calendar in Zambia

Crop calendar of Zambia

Wheat

Maize

Millet

Sorghum

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

MSIOA model are presented in table A3.3. with If Ptot is more than 250 mm, Peff = 125 + 0.1 x Ptot. corresponding growth periods. The sowing date is highlighted in red. The har- The monthly effective rainfall per subbasin is il- vest date is highlighted in yellow. The summer crops lustrated in table A3.5. (cultivated during the wet season with supplemental irrigation if necessary) are highlighted in pink. Of course, the crop calendars, the growth A3.4 Efficiency of Irrigation lengths, and/or the crop coefficient may vary some- Schemes what from one place to another in the Zambezi River Basin, or from one crop variety to another; however, For a given decade and for a given month, the crop in the interest of simplification the table above is water requirements from irrigation are derived us- used for the entire study. ing the following formula, which includes different coefficients described in above:

A3.3 Rainfall Crop.irrigation.water.need = Kc x ETo – Peff.

The mean monthly rainfall per subbasin is given in But because of losses along the waterway, from the ZACPLAN Sector Study 3, Patterns of Land Use the scheme’s intake to the crop, a lot more water and Conservation Practices (table A3.4.). However, needs to be withdrawn at the intake of the irriga- as explained in the Zambian National Water Re- tion scheme water to bring the required irrigation sources Master Plan, the effective rainfall that can be water to the crop. There are losses for the water used by crops is lower than the actual total rainfall. conveyance in the primary channel, for the water During high rainfall events (for instance, when the distribution in the secondary network, and for the monthly rainfall exceeds 125 mm), a significant part field application by run-off or percolation. Con- of the rain will not percolate. The formula used to sequently, as detailed in table A3.6, the efficiency calculate the effective rainfall (Peff) from the total figures used in this study are 39 percent and 50 rainfall (Ptot) is the following: percent for schemes under gravity or pressurized distribution, respectively. These figures were found If Ptot is less than 250 mm, Peff = in various reports concerning irrigation schemes all Ptot x (125–0.2 x Ptot)/125 over the Zambezi River Basin.

115 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 1 1 0.9 1.05 0.95 0.75 0.65 1.05 0.53 0.84 1.025 0.588 1 1 0.9 0.4 0.4 1.05 0.95 0.75 1.05 0.71 0.85 Dec 0.525 1 1 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.05 0.95 0.75 1.05 0.58 0.675 1 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.05 0.95 0.75 0.45 0.988 1 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.05 0.95 0.75 0.45 Nov 0.975 1 0.9 0.3 0.3 1.05 0.95 0.75 0.45 0.963 0.325 1 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.05 0.95 0.95 0.75 0.65 1 0.9 0.6 0.6 Oct 1.05 0.95 0.95 0.75 0.65 1 0.9 0.8 1.05 0.95 0.95 0.75 0.85 0.85 0.65 1 1 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.05 0.95 0.75 0.65 0.275 1 1 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.05 0.95 0.75 0.55 1.15 Sep 1 1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.6 1.05 0.95 0.75 0.35 0.55 1.15 1 1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.6 1.05 0.95 0.75 0.35 1.15 0.825 1 1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.05 0.95 0.75 1.15 1.15 Aug 1 1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.05 0.95 0.75 1.15 1.15 1 1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.05 0.95 0.75 1.15 1.025 1 1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 Jul 1.05 0.95 0.75 1.15 1.163 1 1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.05 0.95 0.75 0.97 0.963 1.163 0.775 1.025 1 1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.05 0.95 0.65 0.84 0.65 0.85 0.775 1.125 1 1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.05 0.95 Jun 0.65 0.71 0.525 0.675 0.588 1.088 1 1 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.05 0.95 0.65 1.02 1.02 0.58 1.05 1 1 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.05 0.95 0.65 0.94 0.94 0.45 1.05 1 1 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.05 0.95 0.65 0.86 0.86 0.45 1.05 May 1 1 0.9 1.05 0.95 0.65 0.78 0.78 0.45 0.325 1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.05 0.95 0.65 0.65 1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 Apr 1.05 0.95 0.65 0.65 0.25 1 1 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.05 0.95 0.65 0.65 1 1 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.5 1.05 0.95 0.65 0.66 0.275 1 1 0.9 1.2 0.5 1.05 0.95 1.15 1.15 0.67 0.55 Mar 1 1 0.9 1.2 0.5 1.05 0.95 1.15 1.15 0.68 0.55 1 1 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.05 1.05 0.95 1.15 1.15 0.69 0.825 1 1 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.05 1.05 0.95 1.15 1.15 Feb 1 1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.05 0.71 1.05 0.95 1.15 1.15 1.163 1 1 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.92 0.72 1.05 0.95 1.15 1.025 1.163 1 1 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.1 Jan 0.79 0.73 1.05 0.95 0.963 1.125 1 1 0.9 1.2 0.66 0.74 1.05 0.95 0.97 0.775 0.775 1.088 Other (Tomatoes) Sorghum Pasture Citrus Banana Winter cotton Winter Tobacco Summer cotton Coffee Beans Tea Vegetables Vegetables (tomatoes) Soybeans Winter rice Winter Sugarcane Table A3.3. Kc for each crop considered in this study, by decades by in this study, considered each crop for A3.3. Kc Table Kc maize Winter Summer Rice Winter wheat Winter Summer maize

116 Annex 3. Estimating Crop-Related Water Requirements

Table A3.4. Mean monthly effective rainfall per subbasin according to ZACPLAN Sector Study 3 (mm) Subbasin Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Kabompo (13) 254 216 195 50 3 1 0 1 6 46 178 259 1,209 Upper Zambezi (12) 224 200 195 63 5 1 0 1 12 71 165 228 1,165 Lungúe Bungo (11) 235 202 184 68 7 1 0 2 15 80 163 224 1,181 Luanginga (10) 232 212 171 67 6 1 0 1 9 58 148 220 1,125 Barotse (9) 195 187 113 28 2 1 0 0 2 26 90 191 835 Cuando/Chobe (8) 157 125 112 53 5 0 0 1 8 37 85 121 704 Kafue (7) 241 196 134 32 5 1 0 0 1 24 121 256 1,011 Kariba (6) 164 139 76 24 5 1 0 0 2 18 68 156 653 Luangwa (5) 236 224 147 30 3 1 0 1 0 6 98 222 968 Mupata (4) 179 159 90 18 3 1 0 0 1 17 84 172 724 Shire River – Lake Ma- 240 209 243 136 29 18 11 5 5 16 79 200 1,191 lawi/Niassa/Nyasa (3) Tete (2) 197 180 108 26 7 5 3 3 3 12 78 174 796 Zambezi Delta (1) 243 180 173 71 45 37 28 27 15 20 71 164 1,074

Finally, for a given irrigation scheme, the water irrigation area and for the estimation of the areas of abstraction requirement in the rivers, for instance, the identified irrigation projects. Taking into account is equal to the crops irrigation water need divided the fact that most of the irrigation areas of the Ka- by the total scheme efficiency. The requirements fue and Luangwa subbasins are under pressurized for water abstractions are then calculated for each irrigation, the comparisons are very satisfactory. decade, each crop, and each subbasin in the Zambezi Table A3.7. illustrates the abstraction requirement River Basin. The obtained values were compared for one hectare of each crop for a gravity scheme in with the values found in various reports, including the Zambezi Delta subbasin. all the reports used for the estimation of the current

117 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A3.5. Mean monthly effective rainfall per subbasin (mm) Subbasin Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Kabompo (13) 150 141 134 46 3 1 0 1 6 43 127 151 804 Upper Zambezi (12) 144 136 134 57 5 1 0 1 12 63 121 145 818 Lungúe Bungo (11) 147 137 130 61 7 1 0 2 15 70 120 144 832 Luanginga (10) 146 140 124 60 6 1 0 1 9 53 113 143 795 Barotse (9) 134 131 93 27 2 1 0 0 2 25 77 133 624 Cuando/Chobe (8) 118 100 92 49 5 0 0 1 8 35 73 98 578 Kafue (7) 148 135 105 30 5 1 0 0 1 23 98 151 696 Kariba (6) 121 108 67 23 5 1 0 0 2 17 61 117 522 Luangwa (5) 147 144 112 29 3 1 0 1 0 6 83 143 668 Mupata (4) 128 119 77 17 3 1 0 0 1 17 73 125 560 Shire River – Lake 148 139 149 106 28 17 11 5 5 16 69 136 828 Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (3) Tete (2) 135 128 89 25 7 5 3 3 3 12 68 126 604 Zambezi Delta (1) 149 128 125 63 42 35 27 26 15 19 63 121 812

Table A3.6. Efficiency of irrigation schemes in the Zambezi River Basin Efficiency Gravity Pivot/sprinkler Conveyance efficiency 80% 80% Distribution efficiency 70% 90% Application efficiency 70% 70% Total scheme efficiency 39% 50%

118 Annex 3. Estimating Crop-Related Water Requirements 600 6,688 2,362 1,650 6,639 2,175 5,468 2,065 4,882 Total 23,541 10,478 17,266 12,223 11,679 19,327 21,434 14,546 14,546 21,097 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 44 15 41 44 23 30 37 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 44 16 44 23 30 37 37 Dec 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 44 44 23 30 37 37 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 20 79 57 86 94 92 101 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 20 79 57 86 94 90 Nov 101 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 79 57 86 94 88 101 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 97 74 74 142 120 127 135 127 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 97 74 74 Oct 142 120 127 135 127 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 97 142 120 105 127 135 112 112 127 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 21 97 85 79 115 103 109 121 121 109 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 54 97 85 79 Sep 115 127 103 109 121 121 109 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 54 97 79 30 115 127 133 103 109 121 121 109 0 0 0 0 0 0 86 40 96 63 71 55 76 81 91 91 14 81 102 0 0 0 0 0 0 86 96 91 71 55 76 81 91 91 96 81 Aug 102 102 0 0 0 0 0 0 86 96 91 71 55 76 81 91 91 96 81 102 102 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 77 63 69 52 77 40 56 61 69 69 73 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 77 52 69 52 74 40 56 61 69 69 73 61 Jul 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 63 42 58 52 74 40 56 61 69 69 57 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 35 20 35 39 56 20 43 47 55 55 30 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 22 11 25 39 54 20 43 47 55 55 15 47 June 9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 51 15 39 51 20 43 47 48 48 47 0 0 2 6 0 0 0 0 2 62 11 48 62 25 53 57 52 52 57 0 0 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 62 11 48 62 25 53 57 44 44 57 May 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 48 25 53 57 37 37 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 14 30 41 14 46 51 20 20 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 14 30 41 14 46 51 20 20 51 Apr 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 14 30 41 14 46 51 20 20 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 42 11 17 17 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 35 42 11 17 35 17 Mar 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 35 42 11 17 35 17 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7 0 0 0 20 32 38 13 32 20 13 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7 0 0 0 20 32 26 38 13 32 20 13 Feb 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7 0 0 0 20 32 26 33 13 32 20 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 0 16 26 40 35 12 33 12 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 7 0 0 26 40 30 12 12 19 Jan 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 40 24 12 12 19 Table A3.7. Abstraction Delta subbasin (mm) one hectarescheme in the Zambezi for using a gravity of each crop requirement Table Crop Wheat Summer Cotton Summer Maize Winter Cotton Winter Winter Maize Winter Tobacco Summer Rice Banana Winter Rice Winter Citrus SugarCane Pasture Vegetables Vegetables (Tomatoes) Other (Tomatoes) Soybeans Sorghum Beans Tea Coffee : The shaded fields indicate length of irrigation period. length of irrigation shaded fields indicate The : Note

119

Annex 4. Modeling Partial Restoration of Natural Flooding in the Zambezi Delta

Modeling the economic impacts of partial restoration of natural floods in the Zambezi Delta rests upon various studies and assessments, especially on the work performed by Beilfuss and Brown (2006) and Turpie and others (1999). To assess the economic impact, modeling is done in a set of steps as described below.

A4.1 Five steps of assessing impact of partial restoration of natural floods

Step 1: Assessing current economic value of the Delta Wetlands.

Table A4.1. summarizes the evaluation done by Turpie and others (1999) which is furthermore detailed in volume 3.

Step 2: Modeling partial restoration of natural flooding in the scenarios.

In 2006, Beilfuss and Brown studied several scenarios of partial restoration of natural flooding. The flow changes that were evaluated for these categories encompass a mixture of changes in magnitude of floods, changes in flood duration, and changes in timing of flood (e.g., the month of occurrence). The scenarios used in the present study are listed in table A4.2. The differences in the series of scenarios that incorporate restoration of natural flooding correspond to increases in flood magnitudes (4,500; 7,000; and 10,000 m3 per second) over a time period of four consecutive weeks in December and in February. Figure A4.1. illustrates that floods in December would occur at an earlier time of the year than historically observed floods (including the current situation). The generation of early floods in December through releases from Cahora Bassa Dam would provide the possibility of better control of the potential inflows reaching Lake Cahora Bassa in great quantities between January and March.

121 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 0 5,715 4,926 52,217 54,849 133,990 724,585 148,416 463,350 300,121 value 4,737,981 6,534,834 1,534,018 Economic net Economic 14,695,002 0 6,012 33,867 191,758 827,752 154,329 135,340 599,622 542,689 315,666 value 9,307,211 7,496,045 1,689,397 21,299,690 Economic gross gross Economic USD (2008) 0 6,012 14,961 99,891 83,540 134,639 707,872 224,825 450,825 314,072 value 9,282,003 5,992,197 1,344,656 Financial net Financial 18,655,493 0 6,012 33,867 159,798 726,739 145,143 135,340 599,622 452,241 315,666 value 9,295,693 6,246,704 1,407,830 19,524,657 Financial gross gross Financial 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 Factor of Factor conversion 0 4,570 3,939 41,757 43,862 107,149 579,436 118,685 370,532 240,001 value 3,788,869 5,225,777 1,226,724 11,751,301 Economic net Economic 0 4,808 27,083 153,345 661,937 123,414 108,229 479,506 433,978 252,432 value 7,442,792 5,994,438 1,350,977 17,032,939 Economic gross gross Economic 0 USD (1999) 4,808 11,964 79,881 66,805 107,668 566,071 179,788 360,516 251,157 value 7,422,633 4,791,841 1,075,295 14,918,427 Financial net Financial 0 4,808 27,083 127,787 581,159 116,068 108,229 479,506 361,648 252,432 value 7,433,581 4,995,365 1,125,814 15,613,480 Financial gross gross Financial Table A4.1. Economic and financial values of direct and financial (current Delta uses in the situation) A4.1. Economic Zambezi Table Direct use Livestock Crops (except commercial commercial (except Crops agriculture) Freshwater and estuarine fish Freshwater Crustacean (prawns, crabs) (prawns, Crustacean Wild animals including birds Wild Mangroves Palms Palms value added value Palms Reeds and papyrus Papyrus value added value Papyrus Floodplain grasses Floodplain Wild food plants food Wild Clay Total *Value of Current situation (USD in 2008) situation of Current *Value

122 Annex 4. Modeling Partial Restoration of Natural Flooding in the Zambezi Delta

Step 4: Assessing the relation between Table A4.2. Key characteristics of scenarios incorpo- scenarios and target situation. rating partial restoration of natural flooding The contribution of the flood restoration scenarios Zambezi Downstream Project Delta flow tributary to achieving the target situation in the Delta is code (m3/s) Timing Duration inflow (m3/s) summarized in table A4.5. for each water user/ AF4 4,500 Dec 4 weeks 800 beneficiary use. For example, Scenario 2 achieves AF1 4,500 Feb 4 weeks 1,750 a contribution of 17 percent of the target situation for the benefit item “estuarine ecology and coastal AF5 7,000 Dec 4 weeks 800 fisheries.” AF2 7,000 Feb 4 weeks 1,750 AF6 10,000 Dec 4 weeks 800 Step 5: Assessing the additional economic AF3 10,000 Feb 4 weeks 1,750 values of each Scenario.

In order to define the total values of each flood Step 3: Assessing benefits of partial restoration scenario, the additional economic restoration of natural flooding. values were assessed as summarized in table A4.6. below. They apply the same percentage of The target situation (TS) of restoration of natural contribution to the target situation for each type floods in the Zambezi Delta has been estimated of benefits as defined in the previous step of the by Beilfuss and Brown (2006) and is reproduced in assessment. The estimated total economic ben- table A4.3. The economic value of the target situa- efits for each scenario were computed using the tion was assessed by applying a multiplier of 6.25 economic model and compared with the losses to the value of the direct uses of the Zambezi Delta associated with the corresponding Cahora Bassa Wetlands encountered in the current situation (CS) Dam management modes (e.g., losses in hydro- (results of the first step). power production).

Figure A4.1. Comparison of historic and current flooding in the Zambezi Delta

8000 7000 6000

/s) 5000 3 4000 3000

Zambezi ow (m ow Zambezi 2000 1000 0 DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Month Historic Current

Source: Beilfuss and Brown 2006.

123 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A4.3. Target of restoring natural flooding in the Zambezi Delta

Comparison between current Target situation and target Current situation (2035) situation Comments 1. Activities related to water availability in dry season Irrigated commercial 12,000 ha (10,000 ha of 70,000 ha with Multiplied by 5.85 These abstractions were included agriculture sugarcane) requirement of 100 m3/s in the HEC-model to assess if water (Sugarcane, (October) requirement during the dry season vegetables, fruit are satisfied trees, rice, etc.) Small-scale for food 1,5 ha/family for 6,000 2,0 ha/family for 12,000 Multiplied by 2.87 These abstractions (in target crops (maize, rice, families = 9,000 ha (almost no families = 24,000 ha situation) are included in the sorghum, etc.) irrigation, today) with some irrigation HEC-model Small-scale for cash 0.8 ha of cotton/family for 6,000 4,0 ha/family for 12,000 Multiplied by 1.73 These abstractions (in target crops (cotton, sugar) families = 4,800 ha and 3.8 ha families = 48,000 ha situation) are included in the of sugarcane/family for 6,000 with irrigation HEC-model families = 22,800 ha (almost no irrigation, today) 2. Activities related to extension of flooded area Natural flooded rice 0,8 ha/family for 1,6 ha/family for 12,000 Multiplied by 4 Area proportional to the total 6,000 families = 4,800 ha families = 19,200 ha flooded area Estuarine/coastal Shrimp: 10,000 t/yr Shrimp: 12,000– Multiplied by 1.4 Productivity of species proportional fisheries 14,000 t/yr to the total flooded area (will also indicate productivity of other species reliant on mangroves) Freshwater fishery Minimum of 10,000 t/yr – Around 15,000 tons Multiplied by 1.5 Production proportional to the total Potential of 16,500 t/yr flooded area (if 15 kg/ha for 1.100.000 ha) Livestock 5,000 heads of cattle (2,000 in 50,000 heads of cattle Multiplied by 6.25 Number of cattle proportional Chinde + 2,000 in Marromeu + (conditions of pre- to area of pasture which is 500 in Mopeia + 500 in Caia) regulation) proportional to flooded area Large mammals Buffalo = 3,056 Buffalo = 20,000 Multiplied by 6.67 Number of animals proportional Waterbuck = 168 Waterbuck = 15,000 Multiplied by 90 to area of pasture which is proportional to flooded area Hippo = 17 Hippo = 2,000 Multiplied by 118 Zebra = 34 Zebra = 1,500 Multiplied by 44 Waterbirds Wattled crane < 350 Wattled crane > 400 Multiplied by 4 on Number of birds proportional to average flooded area Spur winged Goose > 6,000 Spur winged Goose = 10,000 Goliath Heron < 100 Goliath Heron > 200 African skimmer: rare African skimmer > 100 Continued on next page

124 Annex 4. Modeling Partial Restoration of Natural Flooding in the Zambezi Delta

Table A4.3. Target of restoring natural flooding in the Zambezi Delta (continued)

Comparison between current Target situation and target Current situation (2035) situation Comments Floodplain vegetation Mangrove: 1,030 km2 Mangrove: the same Idem Links to flows on dry and wet seasons Riparian forest: 80,000 km2 Riparian forest: the Idem Links to flows on wet seasons same Papyrus-dominated swamp: Papyrus-dominated Idem Links to flows on wet seasons 746 km2 swamp: the same or slight increase Palm and acacia savanna: Palm and acacia Idem Links to flows on wet seasons 1,390 km2 savanna: the same Presence of invasive aquatic Presence of invasive Links to flows on wet seasons vegetation—data on extent of aquatic vegetation is problem is lacking drastically reduced Water quality Sedimentation: reduced if no change compared to pre-regulation situation Polluted effluent discharge: had Polluted effluent increased with Sena factory discharge: restoration of natural flooding could flush pollution Concerns over eutrophication Restoration of natural as a result of effluents from the flooding (artificial) could Sena factory flush parts of nitrate/ phosphate pollution Salinity intrusion: no more Salinity intrusion: flushing but reduction of restoration of natural intrusion during dry season flooding could flush if compared with regulated brackish waters situation Groundwater Dropping levels of water Increase level of water Insufficient data to set target; recharge (water table—data on extent of table for boreholes extent of issues proportional to supply) problem is lacking flooded area Source: Beilfuss and Brown 2006.

A4.2 Comparing results As an example, according to Hoguane (1997) and Gammelsrød (1996), a slight reduction in hydropower The simulations show that the benefits of partially output to accommodate increased flows for restora- restoring natural flooding equates to approximately tion of floods and reduced dry-season flows would five to six million US dollars per year. When consult- result in a substantial increase (about 20 percent, or ing other sources and recognizing the limitations of 1,500 tons per year) in prawn production and harvest. realistically assessing the economic benefits of flood Based on current market rates for prawns, the annual restoration in the Zambezi Delta, this figure reflects benefit from improving river flows is potentially $10 an underestimation. million (Li-EDF-KP Joint Venture Consultants 2001).

125 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis — 3,939 41,757 43,862 159,950 107,149 579,436 118,685 370,532 240,001 value 7,838,666 1,717,414 10,608,833 Economic net Economic 21,830,223

— 4,808 123,414 108,229 947,905 153,345 661,937 479,506 433,978 252,432 value 8,991,657 1,891,368 20,839,818 34,888,396 Economic gross gross Economic

— 4,808 79,881 66,805 107,668 566,071 179,788 360,516 251,157 418,740 value 1,505,413 7,187,762 20,783,372 Financial net Financial 31,511,981

Value of Target situation (USD in 2008) situation Target of Value — 4,808 127,787 581,159 116,068 108,229 479,506 361,648 252,432 947,905 value 1,576,140 7,493,048 20,814,027 32,862,756 Financial gross gross Financial

1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.8 6.25 35.0 Factor of Factor conversion — 3,939 4,570 41,757 43,862 107,149 579,436 118,685 370,532 240,001 value 1,226,724 5,225,777 3,788,869 Economic net Economic 11,751,301

— 4,808 27,083 153,345 661,937 123,414 108,229 479,506 433,978 252,432 value 1,350,977 5,994,438 7,442,792 17,032,939 Economic gross gross Economic

— 4,808 11,964 79,881 66,805 107,668 566,071 179,788 360,516 251,157 value 1,075,295 4,791,841 7,422,633 Financial net Financial 14,918,427

Value of Current situation (USD in 2008) situation of Current Value — 4,808 27,083 127,787 581,159 116,068 108,229 479,506 361,648 252,432 value 1,125,814 4,995,365 7,433,581 15,613,480 Financial gross gross Financial

Crustacea (prawns, crabs) (prawns, Crustacea animals including birds Wild Mangroves Palms added value Palms Reeds and papyrus added value Papyrus grasses Floodplain plants food Wild Clay Total Freshwater and estuarine fish Freshwater Crops (except commercial commercial (except Crops agriculture) Livestock Table A4.4. Economic and financial values of direct situation for the target and financial Delta uses in the A4.4. Economic Zambezi Table Item : The benefits are grouped by color to correspond to the results of the nextevaluation. step to the correspond to color by grouped benefits are The : Note

126 Annex 4. Modeling Partial Restoration of Natural Flooding in the Zambezi Delta

target 34.2% 34.7% 24.1% 24.6% 11.6% 12.3% move to to move

Combined Combined

navigation In-channel In-channel 0% 0%

–20% –20% –20% –20%

supply)

recharge (water (water recharge

Groundwater Groundwater 90% 90% 50% 50% 10% 10% Water quality Water

0% 0%

45% 45% 20% 20%

availability Natural resources resources Natural

33% 33% 23% 23% 15% 15%

control Invasive species species Invasive

70% 70% 50% 50% 30% 30%

vegetation Floodplain Floodplain

80% 80% 50% 50% 27% 27% Waterbirds

38% 35% 25% 25% 15% 18% Large mammals Large

0% 0%

53% 53% 33% 33% Livestock

0% 0%

20% 20% 20% 20%

fisheries Freshwater Freshwater

Contribution to the target by activities by the target to (in %) Contribution 75% 75% 45% 45% 25% 25%

fisheries Mangrove Mangrove

30% 30% 30% 30% 10% 10%

fisheries

and coastal coastal and

Estuarine ecology ecology Estuarine 20% 23% 20% 23% 17% 17%

agriculture

Small-scale Small-scale 0% 7%

27% 30% 27% 33%

agriculture Commercial Commercial 0% 0% –20% –20% –10% –10% /s) 3 800 800 800 (m inflow inflow Down- 1,750 1,750 1,750 stream stream tributary 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks Duration Feb Feb Feb Dec Dec Dec Timing /s) 3 8,250 9,200 5,250 6,200 2,750 3,700 Bassa (m Cahora discharge discharge /s) 3 7,000 7,000 4,500 4,500 (m 10,000 10,000 Zambezi Zambezi Delta flow Delta flow AF3 AF6 AF2 AF5 AF1 AF4 AF code If the flow regimes were optimized for individual users they move to target would different considerably. For instance, small-scale agriculture would benefit MORE from small predictable floods than from large predictable floods, whereas large mammals whereas predictable large floods, predictable from from small floods than would benefit MORE small-scale agriculture For instance, considerably. would different to target for individual users they move optimized were regimes If the flow predictable floods. large from will benefit more with Dr Beilfuss Richard Intellectual property reside these data for rights sheet Value_TS the ones in to correspond in the column Colors The values provided above are for the estimated move towards (+ve) or away from (-ve) target for the individual delta users that are associated with a set of low regimes optimized for all users overall. for optimized regimes with a set of low associated are the individual delta users that for target (-ve) from or away (+ve) towards move the estimated for are above provided values The (2006) in Beilfuss be found and Brown is to with these scores associated details and reasoning The for use as individual intended not worth were It is these noting that floods. for changes and timing of large by the specialists given scores as the individual DRIFT severity score the above essentially means that regimes optimized the flow that way The of the the intention was never Furthermore, it confidence. be assigned low would these individual scores i.e., of scores, the combination from comes strength much of DRIFT’s should go hand-in-hand with the understanding that and use thereof scores, presented. are these scores in how should be taken care and thus great be sued individually, their scores specialists that

16 14 10 8 4 Table A4.5. Contribution to the target situation for each scenario for situation the target to A4.5. Contribution Table N° 2 2006. : Beilfuss and Brown Source : Notes 1 2 3 4 5 6

127 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 6,602,793 9,116,815 4,317,391 7,592,591 8,983,383 5,322,775 6,158,676 6,579,274 7,063,547 5,000,065 5,709,321 Total (USD) Total 35,830,363 77,345 77,345 90,986 90,986 60,657 60,657 167,581 167,581 116,018 116,018 131,424 131,424 Natural Natural resources resources availability 880,848 880,848 550,530 550,530 293,616 293,616 880,783 880,783 550,490 550,490 293,594 293,594 Floodplain Floodplain vegetation 31,406 36,640 71,978 69,978 45,986 45,986 11,996 13,996 188,433 183,199 120,388 120,388 and water birds and water Large mammals fisheries 3,533,983 2,336,022 2,455,819 1,497,450 1,497,450 3,723,366 3,854,011 2,547,566 2,678,211 1,633,055 1,633,055 Freshwater Freshwater 34,141,877 and estuarine 451,624 451,624 451,624 451,624 150,541 150,541 515,224 515,224 515,224 515,224 171,741 171,741 fisheries Mangrove Mangrove Additional annual economic net value generated by each scenario (in USD) by generated annual economic net value Additional — — 623,012 707,256 1,385,558 5,542,233 5,542,233 6,927,791 2,829,022 3,182,650 2,829,022 3,536,278 agriculture Small-scale

/s) 3 800 800 800 800 800 800 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 (m Downstream Downstream tributary inflow 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks 4 weeks Duration Feb Feb Feb Dec Feb Dec Feb Dec Feb Dec Dec Dec Timing /s) 3 8,250 9,200 5,250 6,200 2,750 3,700 8,250 9,200 5,250 6,200 2,750 3,700 (m discharge discharge Cahora Bassa /s) 3 7,000 7,000 4,500 4,500 7,000 7,000 4,500 4,500 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 flow (m flow Zambezi Delta Zambezi AF AF3 AF6 AF2 AF5 AF1 AF4 AF3 AF6 AF2 AF5 AF1 AF4 code Financial Value Economic Value Economic Table A4.6. Economic and financial net value of restoration of natural flooding of natural restoration value of and financial net A4.6. Economic Table

128 Annex 4. Modeling Partial Restoration of Natural Flooding in the Zambezi Delta

In addition, Anderson and others (1990), Good- to the Barotse Floodplains, the Kafue Wetlands, the man (1992), and Chande and Dutton (1997) project Luangwa and Busanga swamps, and Lower Shire a substantial economic return, in terms of trophy River Wetlands. In the development scenarios, hunting and meat production, on restoring healthy inflows are reduced due to the additional storage populations of Cape buffalo and other game species of water (creation of new reservoirs) and/or an that were decimated by illegal hunting following increasing amount of abstraction upstream of the the desiccation of the floodplain grasslands below wetland areas. the dam. They estimated the capital value of the The methodology is based on the estimated current standing crop of major herbivore species in reduction of inflows to the wetland areas during the the Marromeu Complex at more than $13 million. flood period. The periods and mean flows currently According Hoguane (1997) and Gammelsrød reaching the wetlands during the flood period are (1996), a very conservative estimate of the value of illustrated in table A4.7. restored flooding in the Zambezi Delta would be The method of calculation is illustrated in table on the order of $20 million annually, and this does A4.8. below, using some simulated data in the “sce- not include the economic benefits of the improved nario tested” column. flooding conditions for flood recession agriculture, floodplain grazing at the end of the dry season, fisheries productivity, use of various natural resources, groundwater access and water supply, and other Table A4.7. Flood periods and mean inflows activities. Flows in Current Situation (m3/s) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr A4.3 Estimating the impact Barotse — — 1,324.8 2,398.5 3,100 on other wetlands in the Kafue Flat — — 900 900 — Zambezi River Basin Luangwa — — 1,200 1,300 — Zambezi 3,375 4,395 5,470 — — Lower The simulation done in the MSIOA, attempted to — — 698 730 654 estimate the economic value of the reduced inflows Shire

Table A4.8. Estimated reduction in value, per water use in wetlands Current value in 2008 Reduction of value Total Inflow in flood period (mm3) (USD/year) (USD/year) Flood Current Scenario Reduction Wetlands period situation tested Reduction (in %) Financial Economic Financial Economic Barotse Feb–April 17,664 15,500 2,164 12% 13,973,087 10,813,074 1,712,137 1,324,937 Kafue Flat Feb–March 4,588 4,300 288 6% — 33,931,774 — 2,128,872 Luangwa Feb–March 6,385 6,000 385 6% — 13,010,981 — 784,454 Zambezi Dec–Feb 34,045 32,000 2,045 6% 14,695,002 18,655,493 882,513 1,120,361 Lower Shire Feb–April 5,337 5,000 337 6% 29,843,183 24,827,427 1,886,016 1,569,032 Total 4,480,665 6,927,656 Source for the factor of conversion: www.measuringworth.com/calculators/uscompare/result.php until 2007 (2,5% of inflation between 2007 and 2008) Factor of conversion between USD of 2001 and 2008: 1,200

129

Annex 5. Estimated Impact of Climate Change on the Zambezi River basin by 2030

The potential impact of climate change was simulated in Scenario 9 for five major subregions of the Zambezi River Basin. These are: Upper Zambezi, Kafue River Basin, Middle Zambezi, Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin, and the Lower Zambezi Delta. The parameters that additionally simulated were percentage change in Basin yield in 2030, and mean increase in air temperature (increase in 1.5°C). The results as produced by the model are reproduced in table A5.1. The estimated increase in air temperature further required a reassessment of crop-related irrigation requirements. Given the uncertainties associated with climate change projections, this analysis should be viewed with caution. All inflows included in the river/reservoir system analysis model were modified according to the changes in the subbasin yield presented in table A5.1. The effect of temperature increase on open water evaporation (OWE) was estimated for the reservoirs, and the resulting increase in OWE was calculated with the Penman-Monteith equation (Maidment 1993). Non-regulated inflows into most reservoirs—Batoka Gorge, Lake Mphanda Nkuwa and Kafue Gorge Lower (all projected); and Lake Kariba, Itezhi Tezhi reservoir, Kafue Flats, Kafue Gorge Upper, Lake Cahora Bassa, and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa—were also estimated. OWE was calculated from the global climatological dataset CRU TS- 2.1 available on the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia website (Mitchell and Jones 2005). For the climate change Scenario 9, OWE was recalculated from maximum and minimum daily temperature increased by 1.5°C, vapor pressure, and cloud cover for the months of October 1962 through September 2002. Only the direct impact of temperature increase was considered in the calculation of OWE. Other changes in climate drivers (e.g., barometric pressure change, water vapor saturation pressure change, wind speed, air moisture, cloud cover change and precipitation change) were not simulated in the calculation of OWE as the necessary data was not available or sufficient.

A5.1 FAO methodology for determining evapotranspiration

In the early 1970s, FAO developed a practical procedure to estimate crop water requirements, which has become a widely accepted

131 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A5.1. Estimated impact of climate change in the Zambezi River Basin by 2030 % change in 2030 Subregion Basin yield Irrigation deficit Upper Zambezi –16 13 Kafue subbasin –34 21 Lower Zambezi –24 17 Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa –14 15 Zambezi Delta –13 27

Assumptions and definitions Data assumption Source Parameter % change from historic data Climate Research Unit (CRU): 19610–90 Method Weighted average U.S. Geological Survey (USGS): class 4 catchment area Emission scenario A1B IPCC Global Circulation Model Midrange of 23 models As assumed through modeling. Air temperature 1.5 degree Celsius (for evaporation estimates) As assumed through modeling. Source: World Bank 2009. Note: The emission scenario is based on the IPCC projections.

standard, in particular for irrigation studies. Since of green grass of uniform height, actively growing, the publication of the methodology as FAO Irrigation completely shading the ground, and not short of and Drainage Paper 24, new concepts and advances water, the estimation of the ETo can be determined in research made a review and revision necessary. with the combination formula based on the Penman- A consortium of experts organized by FAO in Monteith approach. The complex formula determin- 1990 recommended the adoption of the Penman- ing the ETo can be written as: Monteith combination method as a new standard for ETo and advised on procedures for calculation 0.408 ∆(R – G) + γ 900 U (e –e ) n T + 273 2 a d of the various parameters. On the recommenda- ETo = ∆ + γ (1 + 0.34 U ) tions of the expert consultation, reference is made 2 to the Report of the Expert Consultation.12 Revised ETo = reference crop evapotranspiration [mm.d–1] procedures were developed by FAO in cooperation Rn = net radiation at crop surface [MJ.m–2.d–1] with an international working group of high-level G = soil heat flux [MJ.m–2.d–1] experts to estimate crop evapotranspiration based T = average temperature [°C] –1 on the Penman-Monteith approach. Details on the U2 = wind speed measured at two m height [m.s ] revised calculation procedures are described in (ea-ed) = vapor pressure deficit [kPa] the Report of the Proceedings of the FAO Expert Δ = slope vapor pressure curve [kPa.°C–1] Consultation.13 Γ = psychrometric constant [kPa.°C–1] Defining ETo as the rate of evapotranspiration 900 = conversion factor from a hypothetical crop with an assumed crop height of 12 centimeters, a fixed-canopy resistance This formula reveals the relation between ETo of 70 sm-1 and an albedo of 0.23, closely resembling and mean temperature. All the various complex the evapotranspiration from an extensive surface parameters may be developed and simplified so

12 ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/aglw/et0-rev/eto-rept.zip 13 ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/aglw/et0-rev/eto-ann5.zip

132 Annex 5. Estimated Impact of Climate Change on the Zambezi River basin by 2030 Dec 3.8% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.9% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% Nov 3.9% 3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.3% 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1% Oct 4.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.8% 3.3% 3.4% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 2.9% Sep 4.3% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 4.1% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 2.8% Aug 4.6% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1% Jul 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% 3.8% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% Jun 4.8% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 4.2% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.6% May 4.7% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.3% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.5% Apr 4.3% 3.9% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% Mar 4.1% 3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.3% Feb 4.0% 3.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% Jan 3.9% 3.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% Mozambique Mozambique Malawi – Zambia Zimbabwe Zambia – Zambia – – Angola Zambia Country Zambezi Delta Zambezi (1) (2) Tete River Shire and Lake Malawi/ Niassa/Nyasa (3) (4) Mupata (5) Luangwa Kariba (6) Kafue (7) Cuando/Chobe (8) (9) Barotse Luanginga (10) Bungo Lungúe (11) Upper (12) Zambezi Kabompo (13) Subbasin Chinde Tete Lilongwe Station No Mpika Harare Kafue Station No Mongu Station No Station No Luena Kabompo Table A5.2. Increase in water requirement at selected CLIMWAT stations with 1.5°C increase in temperature (%) in temperature with 1.5°C increase stations selected at CLIMWAT requirement in water A5.2. Increase Table Station

133 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis that the ETo can be expressed as a function of the more than one CLIMWAT stations was available in latitude, altitude, average temperature, daily rela- one subbasin, one station of was chosen to reflect tive humidity, wind speed, and sun hours. To verify the impact of temperature increase over the mean the step-by-step calculation procedures of the FAO ETo of that subbasin. Penman-Monteith approach, a spreadsheet was de- No CLIMWAT station was found for the Mu- veloped.14� Both this spreadsheet and the CLIMWAT pata subbasin (4) so that the variation of ETo was database were used in this study to determine the taken to be equal to the mean of the variations cho- impacts of a change in average temperature on the sen for the adjacent subbasins (2, 5, 6, and 7). No ETo. The main assumption is that the mean tem- CLIMWAT station was identified for the Cuando/ perature is the only parameter to change, so that Chobe subbasin (8), Luanginga subbasin (10) and for the mean daily relative humidity, the wind speed, the Lungúe Bungo subbasin (11). Hence, the varia- and the hours of sunlight are assumed to remain tion in ETo over these subbasins were taken to equal constant when temperature increases. the variation of ETo in the adjacent Upper Zambezi subbasin (12). Table A5.2. shows the CLIMWAT stations whose data was selected and analyzed. A5.2 Calculations of ETo for a temperature increase of +1.5°C A5.3 New evapotranspiration table Calculations of variations of ETo were done using data from CLIMWAT stations in the ZRB and for From the data collected and the generated new simulating temperature increases of +1.5°C. Where variation table, it was possible to calculate a new

Table A5.3. Increased water requirement at select CLIMWAT stations when temperature increases by 1.5°C (Scenarios 8 and 9) Irrigation water abstraction Scenario 8 Scenario 9 Water abstraction Water abstraction % compared with Subbasin (‘000 m3) % (‘000 m3) % Scenario 8 Kabompo (13) 86,679 1 90,005 1 104 Upper Zambezi (12) 86,446 1 91,773 1 106 Lungúe Bungo (11) 7,837 0 8,822 0 113 Luanginga (10) 97,329 2 101,563 2 104 Barotse (9) 120,345 2 125,708 2 104 Cuando/Chobe (8) 5,165 0 5,442 0 105 Kafue (7) 175,070 3 214,424 3 122 Kariba (6) 2,616,084 45 2,811,011 44 107 Luangwa (5) 63,056 1 71,123 1 113 Mupata (4) 133,313 2 157,042 2 118 Shire River – Lake Malawi/ 766,639 13 854,791 13 111 Niassa/Nyasa (3) Tete (2) 460,950 8 523,547 8 114 Zambezi Delta (1) 1,241,288 21 1,317,520 21 106 Total 5,860,202 100 6,372,771 100 109

14 ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/aglw/et0-rev/fao-pmon.zip

134 Annex 5. Estimated Impact of Climate Change on the Zambezi River basin by 2030

ETo so as to also calculate new irrigation water assa/Nyasa subbasin downstream of the Lake can- abstractions requirements. These are illustrated not be fully satisfied. Lake outflow is considerably in table A5.3., and show that an increase in tem- reduced as a result of increased temperatures and perature of 1.5°C results in an annual 10 percent evaporation. At Basin level, the area available for increase in irrigation water requirements. Water average irrigation is reduced from 774,000 hectares abstractions required by the identified irrigation as simulated in Scenario 8, to 705,000 hectares in projects in the Shire River and Lake Malawi/Ni- Scenario 9.

135

Annex 6. Overview of Control Points in River/Reservoir Model

Table A6.1. Control Points and associated abstraction points and projects in River/Reservoir Model

Irrigation Control abstraction Country point Name point Project Angola 2 Chavuma I.12.01 Sugarcane irrigation project 3 Lungúe Bungo I.11.01 Small irrigation development with the Perimetro de Luena model 4 Luanginga I.10.01 Cazombo/Lumbalo Nginbo rice irrigation project 6 Cuando I.08.01 n/a Botswana 8 Livingston, before Victoria Falls I.06.04 Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial Development Project Malawi 51 Lower Shire I.03.01 Nchalo Estate extension Kalima irrigation scheme Mbenderana irrigation scheme Mtendere irrigation scheme Mlenza irrigation scheme Others 49 Between Tedzani Falls and I.03.02 Shire Valley irrigation project Phase 1 Kapichira Falls Shire Valley irrigation project Phase 2 45 Between Nkula Falls and I.03.04 Bimbi irrigation schemes Tedzani Falls Rehabilitation of Likangala irrigation scheme (WB financed) Others 36 Songwe I.03.06 IFAD floodplain project Nkhangwa irrigation scheme development 40 Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa I.03.09 SSIDS irrigation schemes Rehabilitation of Limphansa irrigation scheme (WB financed) Development of new small-scale irrigation schemes (WB financed) Development of new mini-scale irrigation schemes (WB financed) Other potential medium or small irrigation schemes 43 Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa I.03.11 Lipimbi irrigation scheme Nakaleza irrigation scheme Chilumba irrigation scheme Continued on next page

137 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

Table A6.1. Control Points and associated abstraction points and projects in River/Reservoir Model (continued)

Irrigation Control abstraction Country point Name point Project Chigolo irrigation scheme Mphere irrigation scheme Pemba irrigation scheme Kabumbu irrigation scheme Chigolo 2 irrigation scheme Other potential medium or small irrigation schemes Mozambique 29 Cahora Bassa I.02.02 n/a 30 Between Cahora Bassa and I.02.03 Lipaque irrigation scheme Mphanda Nkuwa 33 Tete I.02.04 M’condezi-Revubue irrigation scheme Dam projects (multiple use) Rehabilitation of Lembane irrigation scheme 32 Luenya I.02.06 Luenha irrigation scheme 52 Upstream Zambezi Delta I.01.01 Sena Sugar Extension – Urema-Zangue irrigation scheme Sena Sugar Extension – Mandua irrigation scheme Sena Sugar Extension – Inhangoma irrigation scheme 53 Zambezi Delta I.01.02 Luabo Chinde irrigation scheme Ilha Salia Chinde irrigation scheme Rehabilitation of Thewe 1 irrigation scheme Rehabilitation of Thewe 2 irrigation scheme Namibia 7 (8) Caprivi I.08.03 New small/medium irrigation schemes Tanzania 34 Rumakali I.03.12 Rehabilitation 36 Songwe I.03.05 Rehabilitation 40 Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa I.03.08 Rehabilitation subbasin 43 Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa I.03.10 Rehabilitation subbasin Zambia 1 Kabompo I.13.01 Mwombes run-of-river Mwinilunga run-of-river Kabompo run-of-river 5 Barotse I.09.01 Nakatoya Katima Mulilo run-of-river Zambezi Floodplain run-of-river Ngamwe Rapid run-of-river Manto Rapid run-of-river Sioma Rapid run-of-river 16 Upper Kafue I.07.01 Kampembe farm extension Machiya run-of-river Continued on next page

138 Annex 6: Overview of Control Points in River/Reservoir Model

Table A6.1. Control Points and associated abstraction points and projects in River/Reservoir Model (continued)

Irrigation Control abstraction Country point Name point Project 20 Kafue Flats I.07.03 Kafue Sugar extension Cotton Development Trust on the Magoye River Kaleya smallholders extension Nega-Nega project long term 23 Lower Kafue after Kafue Lower I.07.05 Chiawa Estate extension 8 Livingstone before Vic Falls I.06.01 Mid-Zambezi Delta agricultural water management for food security program 12 Between Batoka and Kariba I.06.07 Mid-Zambezi Delta agricultural water management for food security program 15 Kariba Dam I.06.11 Nzenga Sinazongwe 25 Lunsemfwa I.05.01 Commercial agriculture development project—Mwomboshi Commercial agriculture development project—Mkushi 26 Upper Luangwa I.05.02 Lundazi Dam irrigation 24 Mupata I.04.01 Chongwe Dam Lusitu Kanakantapa (total) Zimbabwe 8 Livingstone before Vic Falls I.06.02 Mid-Zambezi agricultural water management for food security programme 12 Between Batoka and Kariba I.06.08 Mid-Zambezi agricultural water management for food security programme 13 Gwayi I.06.09 Rehabilitation / optimization of the use of reservoirs – concerning 20% of the equipped area Tshatshani scheme 14 Sanyati I.06.10 Rehabilitation / optimization of the use of reservoirs – concerning 20% of the equipped area Mazvidadei scheme 15 Kariba Dam I.06.12 Zambezi Basin irrigation project - short term - current investigations by the department of irrigation in the project area The Kariba Lakeshore Project - short term 24 Mupata I.04.02 Rehabilitation / optimization of the use of reservoirs – concerning 20% of the equipped area 28 Manyane I.02.01 Mushumbi Pools ARDA Scheme Extension Mazvikadei Irrigation Scheme Extension Rehabilitation / optimization of the use of reservoirs – concerning 20% of the equipped area 32 Luenya I.02.06 Mwenje Nyarumwe Irrigation Scheme Rehabilitation / optimization of the use of reservoirs – concerning 20% of the equipped area

139 The Zambezi River Basin A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

V o l u m e 4 Modeling, Analysis and Input Data

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