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The Zambezi River Basin a Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis

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The Zambezi River Basin a Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis The Zambezi River Basin A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis V o l u m e 4 Modeling, Analysis and Input Data THE WORLD BANK GROUP 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 USA THE WORLD BANK The Zambezi River Basin A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Volume 4 Modeling, Analysis and input Data June 2010 THE WORLD BANK Water REsOuRcEs Management AfRicA REgion © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judge- ment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete in- formation to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. Cover and interior design: The Word Express Cover photos: © Photographer Len Abrams/World Bank © Photographer Marcus Wishart/World Bank © Photographer Vahid Alavian/World Bank Contents Acknowledgments......................................................................................................................................xi AbbreviAtions.And.Acronyms.................................................................................................................xiii 1.. the.ZAmbeZi.river.bAsin:.bAckground.And.context.....................................................................1 1.1 Motivation for This Analysis ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Summary of Findings ............................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 Basic Characteristics of the Zambezi River Basin ............................................................................... 3 1.4 Population and Economy ....................................................................................................................... 7 1.5 Approach and Methodology .................................................................................................................. 7 1.5.1 Analytical framework .................................................................................................................. 8 1.5.2 The River/Reservoir System Model ............................................................................................. 9 1.5.3 The Economic Assessment Tool ..................................................................................................11 2.. the.river/reservoir.operAtion.model..........................................................................................13 2.1 System Characterization ....................................................................................................................... 13 2.2 Hydrology in the Model ....................................................................................................................... 14 2.2.1 Inflows ........................................................................................................................................ 14 2.2.2 Local flows at control points ...................................................................................................... 14 2.2.3 Evaporation ................................................................................................................................ 14 2.2.4 Hydrologic balance equation ...................................................................................................... 15 2.3 Operating Guidelines and Rule Curves ............................................................................................. 15 2.3.1 Reservoirs ................................................................................................................................... 15 2.3.2 Flood management ..................................................................................................................... 16 2.3.3 The Zambezi Delta ..................................................................................................................... 17 2.3.4 Environmental flows (minimum flow and restoration of natural flooding) .............................. 17 2.3.5 Flows to support tourism ........................................................................................................... 20 2.3.6 Flows to support fisheries .......................................................................................................... 20 2.3.7 Other control point characteristics ............................................................................................ 20 2.4 Operation of the River/Reservoir System Model ............................................................................. 21 3.. modeling.hydropower......................................................................................................................23 4.. modeling.irrigAtion.........................................................................................................................27 4.1 Irrigation Reservoirs .............................................................................................................................. 27 4.1.1 Reservoirs for irrigation use in the river/reservoir system model ............................................. 27 4.2 Modeling Irrigation Schemes ............................................................................................................... 28 iii The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 5.. economic.Assessment.of.development.scenArios........................................................................31 5.1 Costs and Benefits of the Development Scenarios ............................................................................ 31 5.1.1 Hydropower ............................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.2 Irrigation .................................................................................................................................... 33 5.2 Economic Evaluation of Environmental Impacts ............................................................................. 33 references...................................................................................................................................................35 Annex.1..modeling.irrigAtion.development.scenArios.–.ripAriAn.country.policies,.dAtA,. estimAtes,.And.Assumptions.....................................................................................................................39 A1.1 Angola .................................................................................................................................................. 40 A1.1.1 Agriculture and irrigation development policies .................................................................... 40 A1.1.2 Area in the water allocation model ......................................................................................... 41 A1.1.3 Irrigation sector – current situation ....................................................................................... 41 A1.1.4 Identified irrigation development projects .............................................................................. 41 A1.2 Botswana .............................................................................................................................................. 42 A1.2.1 Agriculture and irrigation development policies .................................................................... 42 A1.2.2 Area in the water allocation model ......................................................................................... 43 A1.2.3 Irrigation sector – current situation ....................................................................................... 44 A1.2.4 Identified irrigation development projects .............................................................................. 44 A1.3 Malawi .................................................................................................................................................. 45 A1.3.1 Agriculture and irrigation development policies ...................................................................
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