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Project Stormfury: Status and Prospects

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Project Stormfury: Status and Prospects Robert M. White Project Stormfury: Chief, U. S. Weather Bureau and R. A. Chandler, Captain, USN status and prospects Director, Naval Weather Service Because of the general interest within the scientific com- The investment in these experiments is a "sure" thing munity and on the part of the general public in Project in the sense that, at the very least, an increased under- Stormfury we have felt that a report at this time describ- standing of the dynamics and structure of these storms ing the present status of the project and plans for the will result, and through such understanding our ability next hurricane season would be valuable in placing in to predict their future course will improve. The benefits some meaningful perspective our agency objectives, the from even a small measure of improved prediction will accomplishments of the project and the prospects for the far outweigh the cost of undertaking such research even future. if modification of such storms ultimately proves to be Project Stormfury is an interagency cooperative effort impossible by the techniques, devices and approaches between the U. S. Navy and the Weather Bureau. It has that are being used in the Stormfury project. been in progress since 1962, at which time some early It should be clearly stated that Project Stormfury offers funding support from the National Science Foundation no immediate prospect of practical modification, nor has helped to initiate the project. Its primary objective is to it in fact been demonstrated that such a goal is attain- explore the structure and dynamics of hurricanes through able. A prerequisite for practical modification, however, a series of field experiments so that we may achieve a is a series of scientifically sound experiments carried out better understanding, improve prediction, and inquire on the full-scale atmosphere, with a postulated causal into the feasibility of modifying some aspects of these relationship based on physical laws which can be tested destructive storms. by detailed "before and after" measurements. This is To achieve this primary objective it is necessary that our intention in the Stormfury experiments, both on we be able to understand and modify the fundamental the full-scale hurricane and on its component parts, physical processes of convection on which the energy of such as the cumulus tower. Detailed, at least semi-quan- the hurricane depends. Project Stormfury therefore has titative models of the phenomenon must be the frame- as an integral part of its activities, experiments designed work upon which the experiments are based; the field to explore tropical convective processes in simple tropi- test supplies a critical proving ground for the model, a cal cumulus environments. Experimental study of tropi- benefit to science and man even if practical modification cal cumuli enables us to determine the validity of the is never achieved. underlying scientific hypotheses in a more controlled and Although Project Stormfury experiments involve the tractable environment. seeding of clouds with silver iodide, the technique of Why have we embarked upon a project of such great seeding as well as the objective of the seeding differs difficulty, whose logistics are highly complex? We have fundamentally and in essential ways from the methods embarked upon it quite simply because these storms and concepts used in most other seeding experiments. cause billions of dollars of damage and great human suf- The project uses a unique method of delivery of the fering to our nation. Even perfect prediction cannot seeding material, developed by the U. S. Naval Ord- eliminate the destruction wrought by hurricanes but can nance Test Station, China Lake, Calif., involving the only reduce it. For example, during the past hurricane use of pyrotechnic generators released from aircraft. By season, during which four destructive storms hit the this method of delivery it is possible to seed a large area coast of the United States, it is estimated that over one of a supercooled cloud tower suddenly, massively, and half billion dollars in damage was caused. It is our feel- simultaneously over a large volume. The purpose of ing that our increased ability to observe and measure this seeding is not to make rain. The underlying idea these storm phenomena with the apparatus of modern is to alter the dynamics of the system by the release of technology, our increased understanding of cloud physics fusion heating, when the supercooled water cloud is processes and our ability to deliver nucleating agents converted into one of ice. In the case of the individual effectively motivate in favor of exploring all reasonable cumulus, project scientists have developed a theoretical- possibilities for reducing the destructive force of such numerical model of subsequent cloud growth, which storms. predicts the cloud height-time profile and internal 320 Vol 46, No. 6, June 1965 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/05/21 05:41 AM UTC Bulletin American Meteorological Society parameters as a function of tower radius, cloud base but they were small—and a study of natural fluctuations conditions and the environment sounding. The hurri- in hurricanes indicates it will be difficult to establish cane hypothesis relates cloud thermodynamics to synoptic- that they have resulted from man's action. Nevertheless scale storm dynamics and an hypothesized instability the results observed in Beulah cannot be dismissed. They therein. The eyewall cloud is postulated to move out- may have been due to natural causes, but what if they ward, with a reduction in the maximum wind speed, were not? What should our course be? We have decided as a consequence of warming the high cumulonimbus that in view of the enormous potential value to the towers through fusion heat additions. We must admit nation the experiment should be repeated. to serious deficiencies and over-simplification in the One seeding of a sustained circulation such as a hurri- present hypothesis. Research is underway aimed at reme- cane is probably not enough to set off a major circula- dying these deficiencies. tion instability, if there is any. Therefore a repetitive In 1963, Project Stormfury succeeded in carrying seeding experiment—five times at two-hour intervals— through a complex hurricane seeding experiment, as is planned for 1965. Monitoring with instrumented air- well as a series of tropical cumulus seeding experiments. craft over a 17-hour period is scheduled, from three hours The eyewall of a hurricane (Beulah) was seeded on two before the first seeding up to six hours following the last successive days, and a detailed "before and after" pic- one. Logistics requirements will be strained to the ut- ture of its circulation, structure, and radar cloud pat- most. Nor are there likely to be second chances in 1965. terns was obtained. In the cumulus series, six clouds Rigid operational rules preclude experimentation on were seeded and their growth measured and five others, any hurricane which could strike a populated area within apparently identical initially, were probed as controls. 36 hours. Climatology shows only two hurricanes per The whole of 1964 was devoted to analysis of results, three years visiting the Stormfury operational area in which have been published (see, for example, Malkus the Atlantic. and Simpson, 1964; Simpson and Malkus, 1964). But, if the project personnel can carry through such The logistic achievement, highlighted by carrying an operational experiment, an excellent chance is pre- through such operations, should not be minimized. sented to evaluate the existing Stormfury hurricane hy- Eleven specially equipped aircraft had to be synchronized pothesis. This is important, for if it is sound, it would under hurricane conditions or focused in time and space appear that we may be able to modify hurricanes some on a single evanescent trade cumulus cloud. This re- day. If it is partially sound, its weaknesses can be shown quired the cooperation of countless persons, and many up and corrected; and if it is largely unsound, we have groups and subgroups in the two main agencies involved. learned something more than we knew about hurricanes, We have demonstrated that quantitative, at least par- which knowledge will be used to design new experi- tially controlled experiments can be performed on full- ments and provide a basis for better predictions of storm scale meteorological phenomena, even the mighty hurri- behavior. cane, and we have learned much about carrying out such It is intended that the experimental basis for Project large-scale cooperative efforts directed to the atmospheric Stormfury be progressively widened, for example, to in- environment. clude hurricane components other than the eyewall. A What has been accomplished is encouraging, but only rainband experiment is under consideration for this a beginning. For 1965, Project Stormfury's plans are to next year. In future years, if the project continues, it improve as many as possible of the deficiencies of the is hoped to broaden its scope still further, to design new 1963 experiments. We will attempt to design and con- models and experimental hypotheses concerning severe duct the experiments in such a way that cause and ef- storms and convective phenomena. These need not nec- fect can be clearly delineated. In the cumulus experi- essarily involve cloud seeding alone, but will develop as ments this goal appears not far away. Weather and physical knowledge and experimental techniques can be logistics permitting, it can probably be achieved by im- brought into conjunction. proved cloud physics instrumentation, together with The Project is now being carried out by the Navy and proper statistical controls. This year it is planned to Weather Bureau under the general supervision of its repeat the 1963 experiment with a much larger sample, Director, Dr. Joanne Simpson, of the Weather Bureau, using for each cloud chosen, a statistically sound design and Assistant Director, Captain George D.
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