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Milton Keynes Partnership MILTON KEYNES PARTNERSHIP Milton Keynes Employment Land Study May 2007 GVA Grimley LLP 3 Brindleyplace Birmingham B1 2JB 0870 900 8990 www.gvagrimley.co.uk Milton Keynes Partnership Contents CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION AND APPROACH .......................................................................1 2. POLICY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT........................................................5 3. PROPERTY MARKET REVIEW............................................................................31 4. ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT AND POTENTIAL SUPPLY..................................53 5. FUTURE DEMAND – SHORT TERM/LONG TERM ..............................................75 6. CONTRASTING FUTURE DEMAND/SUPPLY......................................................99 7. COMPARATOR CITY ANALYSIS.......................................................................113 8. DELIVERY STRATEGY......................................................................................124 APPENDICES Appendix A- Existing Employment areas and Employment site proformas Appendix B- Methodology for ranking of employment sites Appendix C- Development Typologies Appendix D- CMK Plots May 07 Milton Keynes Partnership GVA Grimley LLP 1. INTRODUCTION AND APPROACH Brief 1.1 This chapter outlines our appreciation of the Brief and the key issues that have been taken into account as part of this work. Our involvement in preparing the Long Term Sustainable Growth Plan for Milton Keynes MK2031) has given us a wide understanding of the many issues driving growth in the area. 1.2 Key to this growth is the role of the property market in delivering future growth and the type of businesses that the area seeks to attract and its implications for the property market in terms of property product. The most fundamental issue for MK2031 is the geographical location of future employment land to meet planned growth in houses 68,600) and jobs as set out in the Milton Keynes Sub-Regional Strategy. The main issues that are considered as part of this report are as follows: • Location of Growth; • Employment Growth; • Knowledge Economy Jobs; • Property Market Implications; and • Timetable for Growth. Location of growth 1.3 This is a key consideration of the MK2031 work, which assessed 6 growth options offering varying levels of urban capacity achievable low, medium and high) and a quantum of development to be delivered in the peripheral areas outside the Milton Keynes Local Authority boundary. 1.4 Expansion areas have been identified to accommodate growth that can’t be provided for in the urban area. Planning policy directs us to consider new development by applying the sequential test, looking at brownfield land before greenfield land. The Sub-Regional Strategy identifies that not all of the proposed growth can be accommodated within the Milton Keynes urban area and this is a key issue for this report and the MK2031 report. May 07 1 Milton Keynes Partnership GVA Grimley LLP 1.5 The MK2031 study has had a number of key inputs into this work, most notably the land suitability and deliverability work, which has considered the development capacity / mix on a sample of employment sites to deliver regeneration through potential intensification. Another key input has been the work undertaken on the deliverability of both brownfield and greenfield land to identify the most suitable and deliverable sites for development within the urban and rural areas. This work has fed into our assessment of current and potential supply, which is presented at Chapter 4. Employment Growth 1.6 The Milton Keynes and South Midlands MKSM) sub-regional strategy assumes a total employment growth of 68,600 to 2031, equivalent to around 2,287 jobs per annum. In fact, this may be a rather conservative estimate of employment growth, however this figure is retained for two reasons, these being: • The need to ensure that levels of self containment within Milton Keynes, in particular net commuting flows, are maintained. The MKSM strategy has incorporated a dwellings / job ratio of 1:1 for monitoring purposes in order to achieve this balance. The indicative employment figure of 44,900 by 2021 matches the number of dwellings planned for the same period. • The MKSM Strategy outlines a more balanced economic pattern of growth within the MKSM sub-region in order to achieve regeneration benefits in neighbouring towns. Therefore growth targets within Milton Keynes assume below trend growth, whilst other areas in the sub-region, such as Northampton and Corby will assume above trend growth. 1.7 The Brief outlines ongoing debate concerning the validity of the 1:1 ratio that is suggested in the MKSM Sub-Regional Strategy. As part of this report we explore the implications of restraining growth in Milton Keynes in order to allow growth of neighbouring towns. 1.8 Demand based employment forecasts, linked to employment based local economic strategies and plans, have provided us with an understanding of how the Milton Keynes economy could grow under different scenarios to 2031 and the implications this would have for the demand for employment space. Method 1.9 Our approach has been based on the diagram presented below. May 07 2 Milton Keynes Partnership GVA Grimley LLP Figure 1.1 – Approach to Study INCEPTION Background Assessment Assessment Centres Property Competitor Information & of Sites of Premises Assessment Market Areas Review Economic Review Analysis STAGE 1 Current Supply Quality & Quantity Future Requirements STAGE 2 Impact of Target Growth Population Sectors Growth Employment Land / Space Requirements Gap 3 STAGE Analysis Portfolio Requirements Delivery Requirements STAGE 4 STAGE Policy Market / Disposal Financial Practices Monitoring & 5 STAGE Evaluation Framework Reporting Source: GVA Grimley, 2007 May 07 3 Milton Keynes Partnership GVA Grimley LLP 1.10 This approach provides: • An understanding of the context/drivers of the local economy and property market Stage 1); • Development of economic scenarios to assess demand Stage 2); • Comparison against available supply and future requirements Stage 3); • Delivery requirements Stage 4); and • Monitoring and evaluation Stage 5). 1.11 As such, it complies with Employment Land Review guidance produced by the ODPM/DCLG in December 2004 but extends this to consider town centre floorspace and broader delivery issues. May 07 4 Milton Keynes Partnership GVA Grimley LLP 2. POLICY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 2.1 This section reviews some of the key policy and research documents that are relevant to the Milton Keynes area, its economic structure and employment land supply, as well as providing an analysis of socio-economic baseline data. Review of Policy South East Plan 2.2 The Draft South East Plan was submitted to Government in March 2006. The examination in public took place between November 2006 and March 2007. The panel report is expected in July 2007. There are a number of draft policies which are relevant to this work. • Policy RE1 refers to the need to support regionally important sectors and clusters. This should take into account of national economic interests and recommendations of SEEDA and local business partnerships. A number of mechanisms to achieve this are suggested in the draft policy including ensuring an adequate supply of land and premises; enhancing and promoting local assets to support sectors/clusters, and promoting non land use initiatives that will benefit and foster growth. • Policy RE2 refers to employment land provision and the need for local authorities to assess the needs of their local economy and take into account sub regional strategies for the location quantity and nature of employment land and premises. 2.3 The key diagram identifies Milton Keynes as part of the Milton Keynes and Aylesbury Vale sub regional strategy area and as a regional hub Policy CC86). The key challenge identified for the Milton Keynes and Aylesbury Vale sub regional area is to ensure that economic growth and employment increase in line with population. 2.4 Draft Policy MKAV1 identifies a proposed spatial framework for the Milton Keynes Growth Area, its key components are: • 48,850 new dwellings to be provided 2006 – 2026, through urban intensification and the development of new sustainable urban extensions. • Levels of proposed development to be monitored against an increase in employment of 48,850 jobs by 2002 – 2026. May 07 5 Milton Keynes Partnership GVA Grimley LLP • Key locations for employment related development would be Central Milton Keynes, Bletchley, Wolverton, Newport Pagnell and some locations within urban extensions at focal points and on the public transport system. 2.5 The draft policy refers to there being adequate employment land supply to meet forecast demand to 2016. Sub Regional Strategy – MKSM 2.6 The Milton Keynes and South Midlands MKSM) Sub-Regional Strategy, published in 2004, is a co-ordinated review of policy for the MKSM sub region, which covers three regions, these being the East Midlands, East of England and the South East. 2.7 The MKSM Sub-Regional Strategy has undergone a long period of stakeholder and public consultation in order to appreciate the scale and scope of growth within the sub-region and to identify the need for a cross regional strategy. 2.8 The evolution of the MKSM Sub-Regional Strategy came about through the MKSM Study, which was published in 2002. The study evaluated four options for distributing growth throughout the sub region. 2.9 Following on from the Study, Growth Area Assessments GAA) were developed for each of the growth
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