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Journal of Sports Analytics 7 (2021) 119–137 119 DOI 10.3233/JSA-200466 IOS Press Overtaking in Formula 1 during the Pirelli era: A driver-level analysis Jesper de Groote∗ Amersfoortsestraatweg 92 A4, Naarden, North Holland, Netherlands Abstract. The introduction of DRS and rapidly-degrading tires in 2011 boosted on-track overtaking levels in Formula 1 to unprecedented highs. Since then, overtaking has steadily decreased again, culminating in a 60-percent reduction in 2017. In this paper, using a Poisson model on individual-level overtaking data from 2011 to 2018, it was found that about half the decrease can be attributed to the cars, 20 to 30 percent to the reduction in field size and about 20 percent to more uniform race strategies. Keywords: Formula 1, overtaking, quantitative analysis 1. Introduction Bridgestone pulled out of the sport and was replaced by Pirelli. The 2011 season would become the start of Overtaking is an essential ingredient in motor rac- the high-tire-degradation era, as Pirelli was required ing. However, in Formula 1, overtaking has been to artificially increase tire degradation. Along with somewhat difficult since at least the 1980s due the change of tire suppliers, DRS (Drag Reduction to the strong reliance on aerodynamic downforce, System, a driver-adjustable rear wing to increase top which creates wake turbulence (Mafi, 2007; Newbon, speed) was introduced to boost overtaking. Sims-Williams, and Dominy, 2016), in combination The 2011 rule changes proved to be highly suc- with the twisty nature of the tracks, which prevents cessful, as (dry-race) overtaking tripled from 2010 large-scale slipstreaming. As a result, in Formula to 2011 (Clip the Apex, n.d.). In fact, there was far 1, wheel-to-wheel battles and subsequent overtakes more overtaking in 2011 than there had been in at have not been very common throughout most of its least the previous three decades. The introduction of history. DRS is generally thought of as the main reason for Over the years, several attempts have been made to the big increase in on-track overtaking in 2011, but increase overtaking. Usually aerodynamic downforce it is unknown to what extent the rapidly-degrading was reduced in order to reduce wake turbulence. This tires contributed to this, as these changes took place was especially true for the 2009 regulation changes, simultaneously. An analysis at the end of the 2011 which aimed at a 50-percent reduction in downforce season revealed that nearly half of the overtakes took (Newbon, Sims-Williams, and Dominy, 2017). Also place in DRS zones (Mercedes Brazilian GP feature, more overtaking-friendly tracks, consisting of long 2011), but it is unclear how many of these overtakes straights and long braking zones, were added to the would have occurred without the help of DRS.1 calendar. The most important changes took place between 1 2010 and 2011. In-race refueling had been banned DRS zones are typically on the longest straights, the places where passing is most likely. DRS likely increases the likelihood in 2010 and at the end of that season, tire supplier of overtaking on these straights, but it may also indirectly increase overtaking in subsequent sections by allowing the following car ∗Corresponding author: Jesper de Groote, Amersfoortsestraat- to close in on the leading car. Therefore, the fraction of passes weg 92 A4, 1411HH, Naarden, North Holland, Netherlands. Tel.: inside the DRS zones does not provide much information about +31 626715451; E-mail: [email protected]. the degree to which DRS boosts overtaking. ISSN 2215-020X © 2021 – The authors. Published by IOS Press. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (CC BY-NC 4.0). 120 J. de Groote / Overtaking in Formula 1 during the Pirelli era Since the ban on in-race refueling in 2010, race are derived from lap charts, in combination with strategies have only been dictated by tire wear. Back actual race footage, as passes may be obscured in in 2010, tire monopolist Bridgestone generally pro- the lap charts by pit-stops or retirements. Not every duced very durable tires, which greatly limited the on-track position change automatically counts as an available strategic options. The sole exception was overtake. Throughout this paper, the Clip the Apex the 2010 Canadian Grand Prix, a race characterized definition is used, which excludes position changes by very high degradation, which was arguably one on the first lap, position changes due to drivers yield- of the most entertaining races of the season. As a ing (surrendering the place without fighting), or car result of this, high tire degradation was thought to be problems (Clip the Apex, n.d.). In this paper, only dry a magic tool to produce more interesting races. races are analyzed, to exclude the possibility that bad Tire stops are fundamentally different from the fuel weather affects overtaking. Races under changeable stops that were usually blamed for the lack of on-track weather conditions are especially hard to compare, action in the late-1990s and the early-2000s (Merlino, so wet-weather races are ignored for fair intra-season 2007). With fuel stops, drivers not only lose track comparisons. In this paper, wet-weather races are position when they pit, they also lose speed as the defined as races in which at least one driver uses added fuel load slows them down. As a result, drivers wet-weather tires at some point in the race. could relatively easily jump one another during the The overtaking data is combined with lap-time and pit-stop sequence. Tire stops, on the other hand, trade pit-stop data derived from the Ergast API (Newell, track position for speed. This produces the situation 2009). Data from 2011 to 2018 is used in the analysis. in which cars on fresh tires are continually trying This includes 158 races, of which 141 are dry. Exclud- to regain lost track position, which creates on-track ing the drivers who retired from the race before the battles and induces on-track overtaking. Therefore, end of the first lap (and were therefore unable to affect the rapidly-degrading tires likely played a part in the the overtaking statistics), this leaves me with 2932 very good overtaking statistics in 2011. different driver-race combinations (the observations). 2011 turned out to be the high-water mark in terms The combined dataset contains information on the of overtaking. Despite the large-scale introduction number of times any driver passed or was passed by of double DRS zones, the following seasons saw another driver in the race, as well as timing informa- a gentle but steady decrease, culminating in a 60- tion, such as the race order at the end of the first lap percent reduction in 2017, to a level not too dissimilar and the fastest lap-times during the weekend. Race to the (pre-DRS) 2010 overtaking levels (Clip the strategies, such as the number of pit-stops and the Apex, n.d.). It is not entirely clear what caused this timing of the first pit-stop, are also known. decrease. The collapse of the teams that entered in 2010 and the subsequent reduction in grid size likely 3. Theoretic framework contributed to this. Furthermore, small aerodynamic changes intended to slow the car down by reducing 3.1. Introduction ground-effect downforce may have increased the dif- ficulty of following another car, as well as the wider, Overtaking in Formula 1 has not received a lot more aerodynamically-dependent cars stipulated by of attention in scientific literature. Some attention is the 2017 rules (Kelsall, 2018). However, their exact given to aerodynamics and their detrimental effect on impact on overtaking is unknown. Therefore, in this overtaking (Mafi, 2007), but an in-depth analysis on paper, a detailed model on the driver level is used to overtaking is still missing. As overtaking varies a lot get a better understanding to what factors caused the on a race-to-race basis, focusing solely on the impact season-to-season changes in overtaking frequencies. of aerodynamics misses out on a lot of other factors. A prerequisite for overtaking is the presence of a faster car behind a slower car. However, as the best 2. Data grid slots are awarded to the fastest drivers in qualify- ing, the faster cars tend to be ahead of the slower cars. In this paper, overtaking data is combined with Drivers may still find themselves chasing a slower car lap-time data. The detailed overtaking statistics are for several reasons. First, they may have been out of provided by Clip the Apex, which is compiled by race position at the beginning of the race due to a bad start enthusiasts and has the most complete and accurate or a grid penalty. Second, they may be out of position overtaking data available. The number of overtakes during the pit-stop sequence later in the race. Third, J. de Groote / Overtaking in Formula 1 during the Pirelli era 121 Table 1 factors. The observable factors largely come in four Most important rule changes per season categories: the reliability and field size, pit-stops, the Season Rule changes magnitude to which cars are being out of position 2011 Pirelli tires, DRS2, gradual introduction of double after the start and pit-stops, and the interference of DRS zones the safety car, which are briefly discussed below. 2012 Ban of blown diffuser3, reduction of the height of the nose4 3.2. Reliability and field size 2013 5 2014 Turbo engines , fuel and fuel-flow limit, reduction The number of overtakes per race likely increases of the height of the nose6 2015 Reduction of the height of the nose7 with the number of cars.

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