September 2018

Monthly Forecast

1 Overview Overview 1 In Hindsight: South Sudan Arms Embargo 3 Status Update since our The US has the presidency in September. At press a meeting on the current unrest in Nicaragua, but August Forecast time, the intention appears to be to hold all Coun- some members may oppose having this issue dis- cil meetings in public, with consultations only cussed by the Council. 5 Peacekeeping Operations scheduled for the adoption of the programme of Early in the month Council members expect work for the month. Although no meetings are to receive briefings on Libya by Special Repre- 7 Libya currently foreseen for the last week of Septem- sentative and head of UNSMIL Ghassan Sala- 8 Haiti ber, the US could still choose the presence of the mé and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions 10 Colombia world’s top officials in New York to schedule a Committee, Ambassador Olof Skoog (Sweden). 11 Somalia high-level meeting in the Council. An adoption to renew UNSMIL is scheduled for 13 Syria The US has two signature events: on peace- mid-September. keeping, and on corruption and conflict. The Other African issues this month include: 15 Afghanistan meeting on corruption will include a briefing by • Somalia, on the activities of UNSOM; 16 South Sudan Secretary-General António Guterres and a repre- • Sudan, on the activities of UNISFA in Abyei; 18 Sudan/South Sudan sentative from civil society. The Council will also and 19 Corruption and Conflict receive the first comprehensive annual briefing • South Sudan, on the activities of UNMISS. on the reform of UN peacekeeping, requested by Regarding Middle East issues, Council mem- resolution 2378 in September 2017. bers expect to receive the regular briefing on There are a number of Latin American issues chemical weapons and a combined briefing on on the programme this month. The Council is political and humanitarian developments in Syria. expected to renew the mandate of the UN Verifi- There will also be the regular monthly briefing on cation Mission in Colombia. There will be a brief- Israel/Palestine. ing on the situation in Haiti following the second Regarding Asian issues, the Council will hold SCR has moved, and our report on the implementation of resolution 2410 its quarterly debate on UNAMA in Afghanistan new address is: that extended the mandate of MINUJUSTH in with Special Representative and head of UNAMA 711 Third Avenue, Suite 1501 Haiti. It seems the US is also interested in holding Tadamichi Yamamoto expected to brief. New York, NY 10017

In Hindsight: South Sudan Arms Embargo

With the adoption of resolution 2428 on 13 July, absent a veto from a permanent member, with the Security Council imposed an arms embargo abstentions by six members (Bolivia, China, on South Sudan until 31 May 2019. The impo- Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan and sition of an arms embargo on South Sudan is Russia). One notable factor that made the adop- 30 August 2018 This report is available online at a major development. Some Council members tion possible was the support of Côte d’Ivoire, securitycouncilreport.org. had proposed an arms embargo more than which in doing so broke ranks with the other two For daily insights by SCR on evolving four years ago—then-elected member Austra- African members of the Council. Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s n Blue” lia raised this in the Council in May 2014, for A previous effort by the US, the penholder on series at whatsinblue.org or follow instance (S/PV.7168)—but until this July, the South Sudan, to push for an arms embargo on @SCRtweets on Twitter. proposal had failed to garner sufficient support. South Sudan failed in 2016. However, resolu- As this year’s negotiations on resolution 2428 tion 2304 of 12 August 2016, which authorised demonstrated, the arms embargo on South Sudan the deployment of a regional protection force remains controversial. The resolution received the (RPF) in South Sudan, stated that the Coun- bare minimum of nine votes required for adoption cil would consider imposing an arms embargo

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: South Sudan Arms Embargo if the government of South Sudan were effort to stem the flow of weapons to the con- by all parties to the 2015 peace agreement as to obstruct either the deployment of the flict parties in the waning days of the Obama well as new parties to the conflict. RPF or the UN Mission in South Sudan administration. In this regard, US Ambas- Those members supportive of the resolu- (UNMISS) in the fulfilment of its mandate. sador Samantha Power said the following in tion maintained that the embargo would help This was controversial for China and Russia, her explanation of vote: “At a certain point, to diminish the level of violence and protect among others, who did not support this trig- drifting along and internalizing the con- civilians. Their views were consistent with ger for considering an arms embargo and straints imposed by those Council members those of the South Sudan Sanctions Commit- felt that there had been a lack of appropriate who do not want to take action in the face of tee’s Panel of Experts, which has repeatedly consultation with the South Sudanese gov- the violence, that is not an option. We learned recommended an arms embargo and said in ernment about the deployment of the RPF. that from Rwanda, Srebrenica and chapters its 12 April final report (S/2018/292) that On the other hand, members such as France, past” (S/PV.7850). “an arms embargo is technically feasible and Spain, and the UK would have preferred The US position on the arms embar- would have a positive impact on the politi- for the resolution to impose an immediate go had shifted from one of ambivalence cal and security environment”. Members embargo in light of the deteriorating secu- in 2014 and 2015 to full support after the uncomfortable with the embargo were con- rity situation. The resolution was adopted large-scale violence in Juba in July 2016, cerned that coercive measures could under- one month after Juba descended into vio- whereas France, the UK and several of the mine the peace process. They emphasised the lence following the collapse of the power- elected members had consistently supported importance of following the lead of the region, sharing agreement between President Sal- an arms embargo. Media reports indicated particularly the Intergovernmental Authority va Kiir and then-First Vice President Riek that US National Security Advisor Susan on Development, whose Council of Ministers Machar. These divisions in the Council were Rice, who served as her country’s ambas- issued a press release on 30 June in Nouak- reflected in the vote tally on resolution 2304, sador to the UN from 2009 to 2013, had chott, Mauritania, in which they said that where the 11 votes in favour were accom- been opposed to the embargo because of “given the latest developments in the peace panied by abstentions from China, Egypt, concerns that it would disadvantage the gov- process and the need to implement the per- Russia and Venezuela. ernment more than the opposition. manent ceasefire and achieve an inclusive With the South Sudanese government The dust had hardly settled on the failed peace agreement, it is not helpful to pursue continuing to hinder the operations of 23 December 2016 draft resolution when punitive measures at this stage”. UNMISS, the US was ready by late Novem- members again began discussing a potential However, continued violations of the ber 2016 to put to a vote a draft resolution for arms embargo in early 2017, prompted by CoHA in the first half of 2018 bolstered an embargo (and additional targeted sanc- the further deterioration of the security and the conviction of those supporting an arms tions), but subsequently withdrew the draft, humanitarian environment in South Sudan embargo that another effort should be made apparently because the nine votes required amidst a faltering political process. In a 23 to pursue this measure to help protect civil- for adoption were not forthcoming. In addi- March 2017 briefing, France, Ukraine, the ians. On 31 May, the Council adopted reso- tion to those countries that were strongly UK and the US mentioned an arms embargo lution 2418 renewing the sanctions regime opposed to the embargo, reservations came and targeted sanctions as tools available to until 15 July. The resolution also requested from less expected places, including Senegal, the Council, while Egypt and Russia reaf- the Secretary-General to report by 30 June which chaired the South Sudan Sanctions firmed their opposition to sanctions against on whether any fighting had taken place Committee, and close US ally Japan. Some South Sudan (S/PV.7906). Similar divisions since the adoption of the resolution and sources maintained that Japan’s ambivalence on an arms embargo were evident in Council whether the parties had come to “a viable was driven by the fear that supporting the meetings throughout the year and into 2018. political agreement”. It decided that the embargo could subject its peacekeepers in When the Council negotiated resolution Council will consider applying addition- South Sudan to potential retaliation. (Japan 2406 of 15 March extending the UNMISS al targeted sanctions or an arms embargo, withdrew its peacekeepers from South Sudan mandate for one year, one of the more con- or both, within five days of receiving the in 2017.) tentious issues was whether and how to refer- Secretary-General’s report. The resolution Despite the lack of support, the US tabled ence the threat of a possible arms embargo to was adopted with nine votes in favour and a draft resolution for an arms embargo and address the violence in South Sudan. Some six abstentions (Bolivia, China, Equatorial additional targeted sanctions on 23 Decem- members were initially reluctant to include Guinea, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan and Russia). ber 2016. It received only seven affirmative such a reference, but it was retained in the The parties to the conflict agreed to a per- votes (France, New Zealand, Spain, Ukraine, final draft with some modifications. The final manent ceasefire on 27 June in Khartoum the UK, the US and Uruguay), along with version says that the Council will “consider (the Khartoum Declaration) but fighting eight abstentions (Angola, China, Egypt, all measures, including an arms embargo, continued to be reported. On 5 July, Coun- Japan, Malaysia, Russia, Senegal and Vene- as appropriate, to deprive the parties of the cil members were briefed in closed consul- zuela). Why the US proposed the draft when means to continue fighting and to prevent tations on the Secretary-General’s assess- a negative outcome was likely is not entirely violations” of the Cessation of Hostilities ment (S/2018/653), which observed that clear. It may have been done out of principle, Agreement (CoHA), which had been signed there had been credible reports of fighting to demonstrate that it had at least made an three months earlier, on 21 December 2017, and that UNMISS had documented “gross

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 In Hindsight: South Sudan Arms Embargo violations of international human rights and the people of South Sudan, we need the vio- on Outstanding Issues of Governance and humanitarian law”. lence to stop, and to stop the violence we need Responsibility Sharing in Khartoum on 5 On 6 July, the US circulated a draft reso- to stop the flow of weapons…” (S/PV.8310). August. However, a final overarching agree- lution imposing an arms embargo (and addi- It is too early to draw conclusions about ment still needs to be signed by the parties. tional targeted sanctions). A version of this the impact of the arms embargo on the con- Council members recognised in elements to draft was adopted as resolution 2428 on 13 flict or whether recent developments on the the press on 10 August that “considerable July. Ambassador Nikki Haley (US) said at political front will bear fruit over the longer challenges remain on the path to peace, sta- the explanation of vote: “The goal of the draft term. Following the 27 June Khartoum Dec- bility and security”. resolution is simple. If we are going to help laration, the parties signed an Agreement

Status Update since our August Forecast

Yemen from Iran through the donation of fuel. At the developments, Karim Asad Ahmad Khan, On 2 August, the Council received a brief- same time, the midterm update said that the Special Adviser and head of the investiga- ing from Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Panel believes Iran might now be willing to tive team to support Iraqi domestic efforts to Griffiths and OCHA Director of Operations play a constructive role in furthering a peace- hold the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant John Ging (S/PV.8323). Griffiths announced ful solution for Yemen, flagging Iran’s recent accountable for crimes it committed in Iraq, his intention to organise a first round of con- efforts with several European countries to try undertook his first mission to Iraq from 6 sultations with the warring Yemeni parties on to broker a ceasefire during Ramadan. The to 14 August. In a letter dated 15 August 6 September in Geneva to discuss, among update affirmed, among other things, that the 2018 (S/2018/773) the Secretary-General other things, the framework for negotiations Panel continues to receive evidence of wide- informed the Council that the investigative and to agree on relevant confidence-build- spread violations of international humanitar- team will begin its work on 20 August. ing measures and specific plans for moving ian law and international human rights law by the process forward. Council members dis- all parties to the conflict, outlining different Lebanon cussed Yemen under “any other business” on incidents that it was investigating. On 9 August, Council members issued a 10 August, at the request of Peru on behalf press statement condemning the 4 August of Bolivia, Netherlands, Poland and Swe- Iraq attack against UNIFIL in southern Lebanon den, following an air strike on a school bus On 8 August, the Council was briefed by the (SC/13451). During the incident, some of the in Saada province which had killed more Secretary-General’s Special Representative UNIFIL’s vehicles were set on fire and weap- than 40 children the previous day. Assistant and head of UNAMI, Ján Kubiš, on the lat- ons and equipment seized while the peace- Secretary-General for Political Affairs Tayé- est Secretary-General’s report on UNAMI keepers were threatened with illegal weapons. Brook Zerihoun briefed. Council members (S/2018/677) and the most recent develop- On 15 August, Assistant Secretary-General subsequently issued press elements express- ments in the country (S/PV.8324). Head of for Peacekeeping Operations Bintou Keita ing their grave concern at the attack and all the International Committee of the Red Cross briefed Council members in consultations on other recent attacks in Yemen, called for a (ICRC) Delegation to the United Nations the situation in Lebanon. During the consul- credible and transparent investigation, and Philip Spoerri and Suzan Araf Maroof from tations, members reiterated their support for also called on all parties to engage in good the Women Empowerment Organization in the mission and the importance of stability in faith with the UN-led process, notably con- Iraq also provided briefings. Kubiš updated Lebanon for the wider region. On 30 August, sultations scheduled for September in Gene- the Council on the partial manual ballot the Council adopted unanimously resolu- va. On 10 August, the 2140 Yemen Sanc- recount following the 12 May parliamentary tion 2433 extending UNIFIL’s mandate for tions Committee met with the Yemen Panel elections. Spoerri briefed on the issue of the another year. of Experts to consider the Panel’s mid-term missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals update, which is an unpublished report on and the respective activities by the Tripartite Burundi the implementation of the sanctions regime. Commission chaired by the ICRC. Maroof On 9 August, Special Envoy of the Secretary- The mid-term update stated the Panel’s spoke about the work of the Iraq Cross Sec- General for Burundi Michel Kafando briefed continued belief that most of the weapons tor Task Force for the implementation of res- the Council on the situation in Burundi (S/ it inspected, including the debris of ballistic olution 1325. She named social protection, PV.8325). On 22 August, Council members missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, show non-discriminatory legislation, stabilisation issued a press statement reiterating their characteristics similar to weapons systems of the country, livelihood opportunities, and concern over the political situation, the slow known to be produced in Iran. It also report- support for women’s participation at all lev- progress of the inter-Burundi dialogue led by ed that the Panel had received information els as security priorities for the Council to the East African Community, and the lack of that the Houthis obtain financial support work on with the Iraqi government. In other engagement by the government in that regard.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our August Forecast

They also welcomed the announcement by of letters with the Secretary-General (S/ At press time, on 31 August, the DRC Sanc- President Pierre Nkurunziza that he will not PV.8328). In the statement, the Council tions Committee was scheduled to meet with seek another term in 2020 (SC/13461). expressed its concern at the grave security sit- the Group of Experts assisting it, which will uation, violations and abuses of human rights, present their programme of work. Children and Armed Conflict and the continuing terrorist activities of Boko The Security Council Working Group Haram and other terrorist groups in the Lake Peacekeeping Operations and Conflict on Children and Armed Conflict adopt- Chad Basin. It also expressed concern about Prevention ed its sixth conclusion on the DRC (S/ the persistent violence perpetrated by armed On 16 August, there was a joint meeting of AC.51/2018/2) on 7 August 2018, based groups in the Central African Republic, the the Working Group on Peacekeeping Oper- on the Secretary-General’s country-specific ongoing violence in the Democratic Repub- ations and the Ad-hoc Working Group on report on the situation of children affected lic of the Congo, and an increase in violence Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa by armed conflict in the DRC (S/2018/502). in parts of Cameroon. In the statement, the on the institutional reform of the AU and its Council recognised the adverse effects of contribution to enhancing Africa’s capacity in Western Sahara climate and ecological changes, and of nat- the area of peace and security. On 8 August, the Secretary-General’s Per- ural disasters, on the stability of the region. sonal Envoy to Western Sahara, Horst Köhler, It stressed the need for long-term strategies Israel/Palestine briefed Council members in consultations. by governments and the UN, based on risk On 22 August, Under-Secretary-General for Köhler updated members on his 23 June to 1 assessments, to support stabilisation and Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed July visit to the region to push for the resump- build resilience, and requested UNOCA to the Council on the situation in the Middle tion of negotiations, and on his vision for how take such information into consideration in its East, including the Palestinian question (S/ to move forward the political process. activities. The statement asked the Secretary- PV.8329). The briefing was followed by con- General to conduct a strategic review of the sultations. DiCarlo noted that the UN had West Africa and the Sahel scope of UNOCA’s mandate and activities worked with Egypt and other regional and On 10 August, the Council adopted a presi- and present recommendations for areas of international actors to prevent another out- dential statement (S/PRST/2018/16) on West improvement or new or refocused priorities break of fighting in Gaza. She called on the Africa and the Sahel (S/PV.8327). The state- to the Council by 1 August 2019. The Coun- parties to enable humanitarian supplies to ment, which covers a range of issues facing the cil expressed its intention to consider these reach the Gaza, saying that such “supplies region, welcomed collective efforts, under the recommendations, including any proposed should not be held hostage to political and leadership of the Deputy Secretary-General, to changes to the mandate, by 31 August 2019. security developments”. She thanked mem- recalibrate the UN’s Sahel strategy to expedite ber states who had taken measures to help its impact and encouraged greater coherence Democratic Republic of the Congo address the shortfall in funding facing the of the UN system and partners through imple- On 13 August, Council members issued a UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine mentation of the UN Support Plan for the press statement on developments in the Refugees in the Near East and called on oth- Sahel. The presidential statement marked the electoral process in the DRC (SC/13455). ers to enhance their support. first time that the Council addresses the herd- The statement welcomed President Joseph er-farmer conflicts in the region. It expressed Kabila’s respect for his commitment to Counter-Terrorism concern for increased tensions between pas- abide by the Congolese Constitution and On 23 August, Under-Secretary-General in toralists and farmers, which the statement the provisions of the 31 December 2016 the UN Office of Counter‑Terrorism Vladi- describes as being driven by competition for political agreement. It also underlined the mir Voronkov briefed the Council on the sev- natural resources, rapid population growth, importance of the entire Congolese politi- enth report (S/2018/770) of the Secretary- weak governance, pressures related to climate cal class and the institutions responsible for General on the threat posed by ISIL (Da’esh) and ecological factors, and the circulation of organising elections to remain committed to (S/PV.8330). Also briefing were Michèle small arms and light weapons. Country situ- ensuring the success of the electoral process, Coninsx, Executive Director of the Counter- ations that are touched on in the statement leading to a peaceful transfer of power. On Terrorism Committee Executive Director- include Togo, Guinea-Bissau, and The Gambia, 27 August, the Security Council was briefed ate, and Joana Cook, Senior Research Fellow along with regional security initiatives such as on the electoral process via video telecon- with the International Centre for the Study the G5 Sahel joint force and the Multinational ference by Special Representative and head of Radicalisation and Political Violence at Joint Task Force to combat Boko Haram. of MONUSCO Leila Zerrougui; President King’s College, London. of the Conférence Episcopale Nationale UNOCA (Central Africa) du Congo Monsignor Marcel Utembi; and Mali On 10 August, the Council adopted a Solange Lwashiga Furaha, spokesperson for On 24 August, Council members issued a presidential statement on UNOCA (S/ Rien Sans les Femme (S/PV.8331). On 28 press statement welcoming the publication PRST/2018/17), welcoming the renewal of August, Council members were briefed on of the final results of the presidential elec- its mandate for another three years, from 1 the current Ebola outbreak in eastern DRC, tions in Mali (SC/13464). On 30 August, the September to 31 August 2021, via exchange under “any other business” in consultations. Council adopted resolution 2432 renewing

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 Status Update since our August Forecast the targeted sanctions regime on Mali—trav- Qadeem, the co-founder of PAIMAN Alumni consultations. Representatives of the Security el ban and assets freeze—and the mandate of Trust, which works to prevent violent extrem- Council Affairs Division presented the Secre- the 2374 Mali Sanctions Committee’s panel ism in Pakistan. The UK Minister of State tary-General’s annual report on progress in of experts. for the Commonwealth and the UN, Lord Guinea-Bissau’s stabilisation and restoration Ahmad, chaired the meeting. of constitutional order (S/2018/791). Prime Myanmar Minister of Guinea-Bissau Aristides Gomes On 28 August, the Council was briefed by Sec- Guinea-Bissau also addressed the committee. retary-General António Guterres, UNHCR On 30 August, the Council held a briefing on Goodwill Ambassador Cate Blanchett, and Guinea-Bissau. Speakers were Special Repre- DPRK (North Korea) UNDP Associate Administrator Tegegne- sentative and head of UNIOGBIS, José Vie- On 30 August, the chair of the 1718 DPRK work Gettu on the situation in Myanmar and gas Filho; Ambassador Anatolio Ndong Mba Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Karel the Rohingya refugee crisis (S/PV.8333). The (Equatorial Guinea), chair of the 2048 Guin- van Oosterom (Netherlands), briefed the UK Minister of State for the Commonwealth ea-Bissau Sanctions Committee; and Ambas- Council in consultations on the work of the and the UN, Lord Ahmad, chaired the meet- sador Mauro Vieira (Brazil), chair of the Guin- committee during the past three months. The ing. The meeting was held to discuss devel- ea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding briefing was primarily focused on the devel- opments one year after the violent reaction Commission. Civil society representative Elisa opments related to the work of the commit- by Myanmar military forces to the 25 August Maria Tavares Pinto, of the ECOWAS Women tee, the implementation of the sanctions, and 2017 attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salva- Peace and Security Network, briefed via vid- the midterm report of the Panel of Experts tion Army on security posts led to an exodus eo-teleconference. Prime Minister Gomes also circulated to the committee earlier in August. of refugees from Myanmar to Bangladesh. participated. Viegas Filho briefed the Council Council members also discussed the ongoing based on the Secretary-General’s 16 August diplomatic efforts on the denuclearisation of Mediation and the Peaceful Resolution report on Guinea-Bissau (S/2018/771). The the Korean peninsula. of Conflicts report highlighted that the political situation On 29 August, an open debate was held on remains fragile despite the progress made The Annual Report to the General mediation and the peaceful resolution of con- earlier this year towards resolving the coun- Assembly flicts (S/PV.8334). The briefers were Secre- try’s political crisis, while the organisation of On 30 August, the Council adopted unani- tary-General António Guterres; Archbishop legislative elections scheduled for 18 Novem- mously its annual report to the General of Canterbury Justin Welby, who is a mem- ber is facing serious technical and financial Assembly, covering the period 1 January-31 ber of the Secretary-General’s High-Level challenges. On 31 August, the 2048 Guinea- December 2017. The action will be reflected Advisory Board on Mediation; and Mossarat Bissau Sanctions Committee held informal in a note by the president S/2018/797.

Peacekeeping Operations

Expected Council Action Peace Operations (HIPPO) and by the Sec- of modifying mission mandates to be more In September, the Security Council will hold retary-General’s reform initiatives regarding achievable while also reducing their cost: a debate on peacekeeping reform. As request- the UN’s peace and security architecture. • missions must support political solutions; ed in resolution 2378, Secretary-General Since 2017, the US, which is the largest • host countries must cooperate; António Guterres is expected to deliver the contributor to the UN peacekeeping assessed • peacekeeping mandates must be realistic first comprehensive annual briefing on the budget, has become more assertive in its efforts and achievable; and reform of UN peacekeeping. to reduce the cost of UN peace operations. • there needs to be a clear exit strategy. During its presidency in April 2017, the US Since then, several Council members— Key Recent Developments organised a briefing on reviewing peacekeeping including China, Egypt, France, Italy, Poland The briefing will take place against the back- operations with Guterres as the main speaker. and the UK—have organised thematic brief- drop of the recent push to strengthen UN During the meeting, US Ambassador Nikki ings and open debates on specific aspects of peace operations, marked by the 2015 report Haley laid out four principles for the review of peacekeeping, illustrating the renewed inter- of the High-Level Independent Panel on peacekeeping operations with the stated aim est in this issue.

UN DOCUMENTS ON PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2378 (20 September 2017) was on UN peacekeeping reform. S/RES/2272 (11 March 2016) addressed sexual exploitation and abuse in peace operations. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2018/10 (14 May 2018) was on peacekeeping operations. S/PRST/2017/27 (21 December 2017) laid out the elements related to peacebuilding and sustaining peace to be considered when reviewing the mandates and configuration of peace- keeping missions.Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8251 (9 May 2018) was a briefing by the heads of three military components of peacekeeping operations. S/PV.8218 (28 March 2018) was an open debate on “Collective action to improve UN peacekeeping operations”. S/PV.8086 (6 November 2017) was a briefing on the role of UN policing in peacekeeping operations. S/PV.8064 (5 October 2017) was a briefing on UN peacekeeping operations focusing on strategic force generation. S/PV.8051 (20 September 2017) was a high-level open debate titled “Reform of UN peacekeeping: implementation and follow-up”. S/PV.8033 (29 August 2017) was an open debate on “UN peacekeeping operations: Their potential contribu- tion to the overarching goal of sustaining peace”. S/PV.8006 (19 July 2017) was an open debate on “Enhancing African capacities in the areas of peace and security”. S/PV.7918 (6 April 2017) was a briefing on the review of peacekeeping operations.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Peacekeeping Operations

On 20 September 2017 the Council held a consultations on five priority areas for the A4P a high-level task force to develop a system- high-level open debate organised by Ethiopia agenda: politics (Côte d’Ivoire and the UK), wide response that prioritises prevention, the titled “Reform of UN peacekeeping: imple- partnerships (Ethiopia and France), perfor- protection of the rights of the victims, and the mentation and follow-up”. Guterres and mance (the Netherlands and Rwanda), people promotion of accountability. Despite the wide- Moussa Faki Mahamat, the Chairperson of (Bangladesh and Uruguay) and peacebuild- spread condemnation among member states the AU Commission, briefed the Council, ing (Brazil and Indonesia). Once consulta- of incidents of sexual exploitation and abuse, along with José Ramos-Horta, Nobel Peace tions were concluded, the Secretariat engaged some TCCs and PCCs have challenged the Prize laureate and chair of the HIPPO. Many member states to draw up a Declaration of focus on this issue as unfairly targeting those participants spoke at the head of state or Shared Commitments that their leaders could member states that contribute troops and head of government level. At the meeting, the endorse during the upcoming high-level police. The Secretary-General has proposed Council adopted resolution 2378, which was debate of the General Assembly. The Council a voluntary compact for all member states drafted by Ethiopia. The resolution stressed meeting on peacekeeping is expected to be that support UN operations to demonstrate that the primacy of politics should be the an opportunity for Guterres to take stock of joint commitment and mutual responsibil- hallmark of the UN’s approach to resolv- what has been achieved in the process so far ity to prevent and address sexual exploitation ing conflict and reaffirmed the Council’s and present ideas for following up the com- and abuse, secure accountability and provide determination to articulate clearer priorities mitments expressed in the declaration. meaningful support to victims. By 23 July, 96 when evaluating, mandating and reviewing One of the issues likely to be a focus of the member states had signed the voluntary com- peacekeeping operations. The resolution also briefing is the performance of those involved pact or were processing it for signature. underscored the need to enhance the over- in peacekeeping operations. Discussions Finally, the meeting may also discuss the all effectiveness and efficiency of UN peace- about performance have been a source of recent round of reviews of peacekeeping keeping by improving mission planning, contention in the Council and among the operations. Some of these were requested increasing the number of relevant capabilities, wider membership. Some Council members by the Council, often at the initiative of the and reinforcing peacekeeping performance have prioritised increased accountability for US; the Secretariat subsequently began con- through training and the fulfilment of out- under-performance while some troop- and ducting strategic reviews ahead of mandate standing pledges. The resolution requested police-contributing countries (TCCs and renewals and giving clearer indications of the Secretary-General to provide an annual PCCs) have argued for broadening the focus how mandates can be prioritised. The recent comprehensive briefing to the Council on the of performance discussions beyond uni- renewal of the mandate of the UN Multi- reform of UN peacekeeping. formed personnel. They have underlined that dimensional Stabilization Mission in Mali, The Netherlands organised an open performance cannot be delinked from other however, showed that the Secretariat con- debate focusing on “Collective action to factors related to mandate implementation tinues to experience pressure from member improve UN peacekeeping operations” on including the roles of the Security Council states regarding the outcome of these reviews. 28 March. The prime minister of the Nether- and the UN Secretariat, as well as the role of lands, Mark Rutte, chaired the meeting, and mission leadership. The Special Committee Issues and Options the Council was briefed by Guterres, Maha- on Peacekeeping Operations (C34) and the In the context of peace operations, the Coun- mat, and Fatimata Touré, the director of a Council have expressed support for the devel- cil’s own decision-making processes could Malian NGO. At the meeting, Guterres high- opment of a comprehensive and integrated be tweaked to bring out collective thinking lighted the urgent need for “a quantum leap performance policy framework that promotes that is more strategic. Among other possibili- in collective engagement” and announced the full and effective mandate implementation ties, the Council could start any mandating launch of “Action for Peacekeeping” (A4P), and identifies clear performance standards process by seeking greater clarity around the an initiative aimed at renewing political com- for evaluating all UN civilian and uniformed political objectives before they negotiate draft mitment to peacekeeping operations. personnel working in and supporting peace- language; by reviewing and modifying man- A 14 May presidential statement, drafted keeping operations. The 14 May presidential dates when needs on the ground shift, rather by the Netherlands as a follow-up to the open statement recognised that effective mandate than in strict conformity with mandate cycles; debate held during the country’s presidency implementation is contingent upon several by encouraging the emergence of groups of in March, welcomed and supported the Sec- critical factors, including well-defined, real- friends on particular situations on its agenda; retary-General’s commitment to continue to istic and achievable mandates; political will, and by agreeing to compacts with host gov- take steps to improve UN peacekeeping. In leadership, performance and accountability ernments. The Council could use its Working particular, the presidential statement noted at all levels; adequate resources; policy, plan- Group on Peacekeeping Operations to draw the intention of the Secretary-General, in ning and operational guidelines; and training lessons on mandate design and monitoring of consultation with all stakeholders, to devel- and availability of equipment. mission implementation, and agreement on op a set of mutually agreed commitments Another issue likely to feature in the meet- strategic objectives. The working group could to adapt peacekeeping operations to today’s ing is the prevention and response to sexual submit recommendations for the Council’s complex and high-risk environments. exploitation and abuse by UN peacekeep- consideration after engaging with a broad As part of this exercise, in May the Secre- ers. This has been a priority for Guterres, range of actors, including Secretariat officials, tariat asked ten member states to lead broad who at the beginning of his term established TCCs and PCCs.

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 Peacekeeping Operations

Council and Wider Dynamics recent negotiations in the Fifth Committee. peacekeeping reform, displaying the ten- A recurrent element in the discussions about One of the mechanisms available to bridge sions between the Council and the C34. The peace operations is the gap between those this gap—triangular consultations between consultation process regarding the Declara- who determine the mandates of peace opera- the Council, the Secretariat and TCCs and tion of Shared Commitments has similarly tions and carry their financial burden, and PCCs—has been criticised for not serving illustrated the challenges of finding a com- those who deploy troops and police to imple- this purpose. mon denominator of acceptable commit- ment them. Pressure from the US and oth- During negotiations on the 14 May ments for the UN membership regarding ers to reduce the peacekeeping budget has presidential statement, some Council mem- peacekeeping operations. featured prominently in mandate renewal bers pushed back against language that discussions over the last year, as it has in the they considered too prescriptive regarding

Libya

Expected Council Action declaration following a meeting in Paris on terminals, Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, in mid- In September, the Council is expected to 29 May, hosted by the French president and June. General Haftar regained control after a renew the mandate of the UN Support Mis- held under the auspices of the UN, the Libyan week of fighting but announced that revenues sion in Libya (UNSMIL) and receive brief- parties committed to finalise legislation by 16 would now go through a self-styled national ings by the Special Representative and head September on regulating the holding of elec- oil cooperation, based in eastern Libya. On of UNSMIL, Ghassan Salamé, and the chair tions and to accept the election results. The 11 July, following international pressure, he of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, date selected for the elections was 10 Decem- handed over control to the National Oil Ambassador Olof Skoog (Sweden). ber. The parties present were Fayez al-Sarraj, Cooperation of the internationally recognised UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 15 Sep- president of the Presidency Council; Aguila Government of National Accord (GNA). The tember, and the mandate of the Panel of Saleh, president of the HoR; Khaled Meshri, overall loss in oil revenue for Libya was esti- Experts assisting the sanctions committee president of the High Council of State; and mated to be around $1 billion. In that context, expires on 15 November. General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Fayez al-Sarraj, prime minister and president self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), of the Presidency Council, called upon the Key Recent Developments operating in eastern Libya. Security Council in a July letter to review the Deep divisions remain between the parties Recent weeks have seen an increase in ten- issue of the parallel existence of two central in Libya, specifically between the compet- sions between Mediterranean governments banks, one connected to the GNA and the ing Tripoli-based and UN-supported Presi- such as Italy, Malta and Spain regarding their other in the eastern part of Libya. In a press dency Council and the eastern Tobruk-based responsibilities for admitting ships carrying statement on 19 July the Council condemned House of Representatives (HoR). Little prog- refugees and migrants rescued at sea. This the June attacks, welcomed the re-opening ress has been achieved in implementing the has resulted in these vessels being forced to of the oil terminals and stressed that the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA), signed on stay in international waters for days until they country’s oil resources fall under the exclu- 17 December 2015 and designed to estab- are able to dock. sive control of the National Oil Corporation. lish unified and legitimate institutions with During a bilateral visit at the end of Furthermore, following Sarraj’s request, the the capacity to deliver basic services to the July with US president Donald Trump in Council invited Salamé to submit proposals Libyan population. Special Representative Washington, D.C., Italian Prime Minister addressing the specific issue of the two com- Salamé has been focusing on implementing Giuseppe Conte announced his plans for a peting central banks within the larger goal of a UN action plan that the Council endorsed fall conference on stabilising Libya. unifying Libya’s parallel institutions. in October 2017. This plan includes corre- The security situation in many parts of During his most recent briefing on 16 July, sponding efforts to amend the LPA, finalise Libya remains very volatile. Around the oil Salamé announced that the consultative phase a new constitution, and prepare for parlia- crescent, armed groups opposing General of the national conference process, aimed at mentary and presidential elections. In a Haftar attacked and seized control of two oil bringing Libyans together around a common

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2420 (11 June 2018) renewed the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisa- tions, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya bound to or from the country that they have reasonable grounds to believe are violating the arms embargo.S/RES/2380 (5 October 2017) renewed the authorisation for member states to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking. S/RES/2376 (14 September 2017) extended UNSMIL’s mandate until 15 September 2018. S/RES/2362 (29 June 2017) renewed the man- date of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee and the measures regarding attempts to illicitly export oil from Libya until 15 November 2018. S/RES/1970 (26 February 2011) referred the situation in Libya to the ICC, imposed an arms embargo and targeted sanctions (assets freeze and travel ban), and established a sanctions committee. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2018/11 (6 June 2018) welcomed the momentum generated by the international conference on Libya in Paris. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2018/451 (11 May 2018) was on the implementation of resolution 2357, authorising member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya bound to or from the country that they have reasonable grounds to believe are violating the arms embargo.S/2018/429 (7 May 2018) was on UNSMIL. Security Council Press Statement SC/13429 (19 July 2018) was on the developments around Libya’s National Oil Corporation. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8312 (16 July 2018) was the latest briefing by the Special Representative and head of UNSMIL, Ghassan Salamé, and the Swedish chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee. S/PV.8250 (9 May 2018) was the semi-annual briefing by ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda on recent developments concerning cases in Libya.Sanctions Committee Related Document SC/13371 (7 June 2018) was a press release by the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee regarding the adding of six individuals to the sanctions list.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Libya national narrative, had concluded after 14 Sanctions-Related Developments Key Issues and Options weeks of meetings. According to Salamé, more The 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee addressed The Council will have to decide whether and than 7,000 Libyans, a quarter of whom were the issue of human rights violations and abuse of how to adapt UNSMIL’s mandate, consid- migrants and refugees in Libya in June by desig- women, participated around Libya and abroad nating six leaders of transnational trafficking net- ering issues such as the UN-led mediation and voiced their ideas about Libya’s future. works (four Libyans and two Eritreans) for sanc- efforts, the electoral preparations, and the The next step will be a final report drawn from tions in the form of a travel ban and asset freeze. implementation of the 2017 UN Action Plan these consultations, with conclusions and rec- This was also the first time any UN sanctions in general. At the appropriate time, and in ommendations, presented at a final event. committee listed individuals for human trafficking. support of Salamé’s work, the Security Coun- During the latest briefing to the Council on 16 July, Migrants and refugees in Libya continue the representative of the chair of the 1970 Libya cil might consider a visiting mission to Libya to suffer from grave human rights violations Sanctions informed members that the committee and neighbouring countries to engage with and abuse, including arbitrary detention and is currently considering the listing of another indi- key stakeholders. forced labour, reportedly inflicted by state vidual against several designation criteria. officials, armed groups, smugglers, traffick- Council and Wider Dynamics ers and criminal gangs. Human Rights-Related Developments Overall, Council members are united in The humanitarian situation in Libya In a 17 August press statement, the spokesper- their support of Salamé’s mediation efforts, son of the High Commissioner for Human Rights remains dire. At press time, the UN’s 2018 but they have often had different sensitivi- called on the Libyan GNA to take all necessary humanitarian $312.7 million response plan measures to protect Tawerghan internally dis- ties regarding the way forward to achieving a for Libya was funded at 22.5 percent, with placed persons (IDPs) from further displacement, solution. Regarding the upcoming elections, $242.4 million outstanding. torture and other human rights violations, follow- some members, including the US, appear to ing the forced eviction of some 1,900 people from be more cautious about defining a concrete an IDP camp in Tripoli on 10 August. According ICC-Related Developments timeline for the electoral process, consider- to the statement, an armed group allied to the On 4 July, Pre-Trial Chamber I of the ICC issued GNA detained at least 87 IDPs during raids on the ing the challenges to establishing an envi- a second arrest warrant for Mahmoud Mustafa camp and took them to unknown locations. Those ronment conducive to peaceful and credible Busayf Al-Werfalli. According to the first arrest that were released gave accounts of their torture warrant, issued on 15 August 2017, Al-Werfalli elections. Council resolutions and presiden- and ill-treatment, and reports indicate that the appears to be directly responsible for the deaths tial statements have called upon UN member armed group still holds 19 people. The spokes- of 33 persons during seven different incidents states to cease support for and official con- person urged the authorities to provide shelter in Benghazi or surrounding areas between June and protection for the evicted IDPs, and called tact with parallel institutions in Libya, but it 2016 and July 2017, by having killed them himself on the armed group immediately to release those seems that some Council members have not or ordered their execution. The second arrest who were being detained while ensuring the full warrant relates to an eighth incident on 24 Janu- respected this. rights of all detainees to physical and psycho- ary in which Al-Werfalli allegedly killed ten per- The UK is the penholder on Libya, and logical integrity and to due process. The Human sons in Benghazi. Sweden chairs the 1970 Libya Sanctions Rights Council will hold an interactive dialogue on The two other open cases in the situation in the High Commissioner’s update on Libya during Committee. Libya are against Saif al-Islam Gaddafi and Al- its 39th session in September. Tuhamy Mohamed Khaled.

Haiti

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments It did not hold a meeting in June after the In September, the Council will receive the Resolution 2410, which extended the man- Secretary-General issued his first report on second report on the implementation of reso- date of MINUJUSTH for another year, set the implementation of resolution 2410. It lution 2410 that on 10 April extended under comprehensive reporting requirements on seems that no Council member—including Chapter VII of the UN Charter the mandate the implementation of the resolution. Start- the penholder, the US—requested a meeting of the UN Mission for Justice Support in ing 1 June, the resolution requested the Sec- to discuss the report. Haiti (MINUJUSTH), and will hold a brief- retary-General to report to the Council every Describing the situation in Haiti as rela- ing on the situation in Haiti. three months, conduct a strategic assessment tively stable, the 1 June Secretary-General’s The mandate of MINUJUSTH expires on of the mission, and present recommenda- report noted the positive steps taken by Presi- 15 April 2019. tions on its future. The April meeting was dent Jovenel Moïse to engage the Haitian pop- the Council’s most recent meeting on Haiti. ulation and move forward with political and

UN DOCUMENTS ON HAITI Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2410 (10 April 2018) extended MINUJUSTH’s mandate under Chapter VII of the UN Charter until 15 April 2019. S/RES/2350 (13 April 2017) extended MINUSTAH’s mandate for a final six-month period until 15 October and authorised the establishment of a smaller successor peacekeeping mission, MINUJUSTH. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2018/527 (1 June 2018) was on MINUJUSTH. S/2018/241 (20 March 2018) contained the Secretary-General’s strategic assessment of MINUJUSTH and benchmarks for the mission’s exit strategy. Security Council Press Statements SC/13419 (12 July 2018) condemned the acts of violence against civilians during the anti-government protests. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8226 (10 April 2018) was the vote on resolution 2410, on which China and Russia abstained. S/PV.8220 (3 April 2018) was a briefing by the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations on the situation in Haiti.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 Haiti socio-economic development. While it recog- Earlier this year, Page was at the centre of Human Rights-Related Developments nised the progress made over the past several a dispute with the Haitian government after On 3 July, the Human Rights Council (HRC) held years, the report emphasised the importance she issued a statement welcoming a judicial an interactive dialogue during its 38th session with the High Commissioner for Human Rights of reforming the justice sector, strengthening corruption inquiry into alleged misman- and considered his report on the development of the rule of law, and improving human rights. agement of Venezuelan oil loans by former a national plan of action to implement the recom- The report outlined in detail the specific dates Haitian government officials and called on mendations of international human rights mecha- and indicators for achieving benchmarks, authorities to examine alleged human rights nisms, including those made in the context of the with the aim of transitioning responsibilities violations by the Haitian National Police Universal Periodic Review and by the independent expert on human rights in Haiti (A/HRC/38/30). to the government in coordination with the (HNP). The statement drew criticism from The report addressed efforts by the government UN Country Team and in line with MINU- the Haitian government, which perceived of Haiti to implement recommendations regarding JUSTH’s two-year benchmarked exit strategy. Page’s comments as overstepping the UN’s pre-trial detention, prison overcrowding, criminal Economic stagnation, coupled with high role of supporting the country in the enforce- legislation reform, accountability, illiteracy and inflation and a significant budget deficit, has ment of rule of law and justice. In a sign of the situation of internally displaced persons and migrants. “There has been very little progress in persisted over the past several years in Haiti. protest, several Haitian government ministers all these areas,” the High Commissioner said. The On 6 July, the government announced that and President Moïse cancelled their plans to report recommended that the HRC continue to it would raise fuel prices by about 40 per- attend a February retreat on eradicating chol- pay close attention to the human rights situation cent, triggering a series of violent protests in era in Haiti at Greentree on Long Island host- in Haiti and monitor progress made in the devel- Port-au-Prince and other parts of the coun- ed by the Secretary-General and his Special opment and implementation of a national human rights action plan. try. In defending its decision, the government Envoy for Haiti, Josette Sheeran. claimed it could no longer afford to subsidise In other developments, on 19 April the fuel and that it needed to free up funds for oth- government of Haiti and representatives of Key Issues and Options er social services. The next day, Prime Minister the UN system reviewed progress on the Chief among the issues the Council faces in Jack Guy Lafontant announced that the gov- UN Development Assistance Framework Haiti is achieving the mission’s benchmarked ernment would temporarily halt the price hike. (UNDAF) 2017-2021 in light of the UN’s exit strategy within the projected timeframe Nevertheless, protests and violence continued transition to a non-peacekeeping presence. of two years from the date of 15 October for many days thereafter and resulted in sever- UNDAF 2017-2021 is a joint effort by the 2017. Given the possibility of failing to do so, al civilian deaths. In a 12 July press statement, government and the UN to promote sustain- the Council will have to consider how long the Council condemned all acts of violence able development in the country, covering the mission should continue to work towards and attacks on civilians while emphasising the such issues as poverty reduction and employ- these goals. Remaining issues for the Council importance of respect for the rule of law. ment, social services, resilience, gender equal- include the need for the mission to develop Anticipating a no-confidence vote in the ity/protection, and governance. During the further the capacity of the HNP and to con- legislature, Lafontant formally resigned on meeting, both sides deliberated MINU- tinue to encourage progress across all rule of 15 July. In early August, Moïse nominated JUSTH’s activities in support of strengthen- law sectors, in particular regarding reforms Jean Henry Céant as the new prime minister. ing the rule of law in the context of transition. related to human rights and criminal jus- Céant has been an active player on the politi- Some aspects of MINUJUSTH’s bench- tice, before the projected closure of MINU- cal scene in Haiti and ran in the 2010 and marked exit strategy are also aligned with JUSTH in the last quarter of 2019. 2016 presidential elections. relevant elements in UNDAF 2017-2021. The recent tensions in Haiti have exposed Haiti’s Constitution requires the legisla- The members of the Economic and Social some of the underlying socio-economic issues ture to approve the appointment of a new Council Ad Hoc Advisory Group on Haiti that could potentially threaten the overall prime minister. At press time, the legislature visited Haiti in May, meeting with President security situation. Should this persist, the still had not reached agreement on Céant’s Moïse and other key political actors, civil Council could issue a statement calling for appointment. society and development agencies operating calm and dialogue and supporting the work On 1 August, Secretary-General António in the country. The discussions between the of the mission and its special representative. It Guterres announced the appointment of Hel- group and its interlocutors focused primar- could also, in due time, reassess the plans for en Meagher La Lime (USA) as his Special ily on socio-economic issues, development the drawdown of the mission and the time- Representative for Haiti and head of MINU- priorities and rule of law. The group was lines of the benchmarked exit strategy. JUSTH. La Lime succeeds Susan D. Page, established in 1999 to provide recommen- The protracted absence of sufficient fund- who served in the position for just over six dations to ECOSOC on how to achieve the ing for the Secretary-General’s new approach months; on 4 May she had been appointed most effective and coordinated approach over to cholera in Haiti is another concern for the the Secretary-General’s Special Advisor on international assistance to Haiti, but became Council. To date, only around $8.7 million Rule of Law, Global Focal Point Review inactive within months. In 2004, ECOSOC has been deposited to support cholera efforts; Implementation. Guterres designated Mama- reactivated the group with the mandate to the Secretary-General had estimated that the dou Diallo, the Deputy Special Representa- promote socio-economic recovery and to new approach would cost $400 million. tive, as the acting head of mission following seek coherence and sustainability in interna- Page’s departure. tional support to Haiti.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Haiti

Council Dynamics April 2017 the Council voted unanimously to toughen the draft resolution by invoking The prevailing view among Council members for resolution 2350—renewing the mandate the application of Chapter VII for the entirety is that Haiti has recently made notable prog- of MINUSTAH until 15 October, to be of the mission’s mandate. He further noted ress. The Council commended, as a major followed by the start of MINUJUSTH the that over the past 14 years, application of milestone, the successful holding of the pres- next day—China, Russia and to some extent Chapter VII has been “carefully limited to the idential, legislative and municipal elections Bolivia raised concerns regarding the inclu- specific tasks of ensuring the physical security and restoration of constitutional order in sion of human rights in the MINUJUSTH of the civilian population and the peacekeep- 2017. This was the backdrop for the Coun- mandate and its being established under ers themselves”. Bolivia voted in favour of the cil’s decision to initiate a gradual drawdown Chapter VII, which authorises enforcement resolution but also echoed these concerns. and the eventual closure of the UN Stabiliza- action in order to restore international peace Council practice is that draft resolutions tion Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) and the and security. During the last mandate renew- on Haiti are negotiated and agreed among establishment of the smaller successor mis- al, in April, Russia and China abstained dur- the Group of Friends of Haiti, which com- sion MINUJUSTH in October last year. ing the vote on resolution 2410, citing similar prises Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Negotiations on the last two mandate concerns. The Russian representative noted Chile, Colombia, France, Guatemala, Peru, renewal resolutions have exposed some that while there was consensus among Coun- Uruguay and the US, before being circulat- diverging views about the scope and the man- cil members that the situation in the country ed to all 15 Council members by the US as date of the UN mission in Haiti. Although in continues to improve, the penholder decided the penholder.

Colombia

Expected Council Action the Constitutional Court in a ruling of 16 harbour misgivings about whether the peace In September, the Council is expected to August. Centro Democrático, the political agreement will be implemented in full. In his renew the mandate of the UN Verification party of President Duque, had proposed 20 July report, the Secretary-General said that Mission in Colombia, which expires on 26 amendments in the final stages of the leg- “the country’s new authorities have the critical September. islative process, including limiting the role responsibility to restore a sense of confidence of the SJP in evaluating extradition requests about the future among the rank and file, the Key Recent Developments and forbidding human rights attorneys from mid-level commanders and the leadership of President Iván Duque was sworn in on 7 serving as magistrates in the SJP, but the the former guerrilla group”. In a press state- August after having won 54 percent of the Constitutional Court rejected these changes. ment adopted on 27 July, Council members vote in the second round of the presiden- The Court also reaffirmed that those former reaffirmed their commitment to continuing tial elections on 17 June. During the cam- guerrilla members found responsible for to work with Colombia as it implements the paign, Duque said he was committed not to crimes by the SJP, and who have fully coop- peace agreement in order to secure a lasting terminate the November 2016 peace agree- erated with the tribunal, can participate in peace in the months and years ahead. They ment but to propose certain “corrections”. politics, including holding office. also urged the parties to consolidate the gains Although no firm decisions have been made, The new Congress was inaugurated on already made and to work together to renew areas that the new administration may aim 20 July. The political party Fuerza Alter- the momentum behind implementation of to modify include provisions related to the nativa Revolucionaria del Común (FARC), the peace agreement. transitional justice mechanisms, land reform, which was founded after the laying-down of The UN Verification Mission has contin- and how to deal with the cultivation of coca. weapons, was allocated five seats in each of ued to implement its mandate to verify the During the last months of former Pres- the chambers (House of Representatives and political, economic and social reintegration of ident Juan Manuel Santos’ term, politi- Senate) in accordance with the peace agree- the former members of the Fuerzas Armadas cal divisions delayed the Colombian Con- ment. FARC leader Seuxis Hernández (aka Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del gress’ approval of the statute of the Special Jesús Santrich) did not take his seat as he is Pueblo (FARC-EP), as well as the upholding Jurisdiction for Peace (SJP), the justice detained, charged with drug trafficking. In of security guarantees. Attacks against for- component of the transitional justice sys- solidarity with Santrich, Luciano Marín (aka mer FARC-EP members and their families tem. The SJP statute was finally adopted Iván Márquez) refused to assume his posi- have persisted, and fragile security conditions in June and was deemed constitutional by tion as senator. FARC members continue to for members outside some of the 26 areas

UN DOCUMENTS ON COLOMBIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2381 (5 October 2017) authorised the UN Verification Mission in Colombia to participate in and coordinate the work of the monitoring and verification mechanism for the temporary ceasefire between the government of Colombia and the ELN. S/RES/2366 (10 July 2017) established the UN Verification Mission in Colombia as the successor mission of the UN Mission in Colombia. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/723 (20 July 2018) was the latest 90-day report on the UN Verification Mission in Colombia. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8319 (26 July 2018) was a briefing by Jean Arnault on the Secretary-General’s latest report on Colombia. Colombian Vice President Óscar Naranjo also participated in the meeting. Security Council Press Statement SC/13438 (27 July 2018) reaffirmed the Council’s commitment to continuing to work with Colombia as it implements the peace agreement in order to secure a lasting peace in the months and years ahead.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 Colombia designated for training and reintegration activities affecting inhabitants of the former The government’s ability to develop a continue to pose a challenge for their return conflict zone. He called for a tightly coor- well-resourced strategy for reintegrating for- to civilian life. FARC-EP dissident groups dinated and well-resourced effort to bring mer FARC-EP members into society and to have continued to mount attacks, including opportunities to areas that have long been provide safety and security in areas previous- trans-border operations into Ecuador. Other prey to violence and state neglect. ly occupied by the FARC-EP remain critical armed groups that are filling the vacuum left Even though the administration of Presi- issues in the successful implementation of the in the large areas formerly under the influ- dent Santos conducted talks in Cuba with a agreement. Council members could encourage ence of FARC-EP continue to be a threat to still-active guerrilla group known as Ejército high-level contacts between representatives of communities. Human rights defenders have de Liberación Nacional (ELN) until the end the government and the FARC to discuss how been targeted as well, with 121 killed in 2017, of his term, no bilateral ceasefire agreement the commitments made in the agreement are according to the Office of the High Commis- was reached. During the campaign, Duque to be carried out in this new phase. sioner for Human Rights. expressed the need for preconditions for the Despite the polarisation observed dur- government to remain at the negotiating table Council Dynamics ing the electoral cycle, state institutions and with the ELN. Given the role that the UN Council members are unified in their support political parties signed a “pact of repudiation Verification Mission played with the Catholic for the peace process in Colombia. Several of violence against social leaders” in early July, church in monitoring and verifying an ear- members have viewed engagement in Colom- displaying the collective concern of political lier bilateral ceasefire with the ELN, Council bia as a rare bright spot for the Council as actors in Colombia to address this pressing members are expected to follow any future it struggles to play an effective role in sev- issue. Addressing the Council on 26 July, negotiations closely. The ELN has continued eral other conflict situations. However, some Colombian Vice President Óscar Naranjo to carry out attacks, and in early August kid- members have expressed concerns about highlighted the contradiction that although napped nine people in the regions of Chocó the future of the agreement under the new the country has had the lowest murder rate in and Arauca. administration. 42 years, there has been an increase in threats The current political context may mean and attacks against social leaders and human Key Issues and Options a significant change in the role the two suc- rights defenders. An important issue is ensuring that the peace cessive UN missions have played since the The socioeconomic reintegration of the agreement is implemented in its entirety government of Colombia requested the 14,000 former combatants through the despite the change in government. When Council’s involvement in January 2016. The establishment of productive projects and Council members visited Colombia in May present mission, with the Council’s close other forms of income generation continues 2017, they expressed unanimous support attention and support, could be in a position to be a challenge. Briefing the Council on 26 for the agreement and during meetings with to use its leverage to sustain key provisions July, the Special Representative of the Secre- representatives of the main political parties of the agreement at a moment of uncertainty tary-General and head of the UN Verification stressed the need to secure its irreversibility. in order to reassure Colombians about the Mission in Colombia, Jean Arnault, stressed Appreciating the vital role of the UN Verifica- irreversibility of the process. During a visit that in addition to supporting institutions in tion Mission in Colombia in contributing to to New York on 23 August, Foreign Minister curbing violence, the central challenge for the momentum for implementing the agree- Carlos Holmes Trujillo expressed support for peace consolidation remains the combina- ment, the Council is likely to renew the mis- the renewal of the mission’s mandate. tion of poverty, violence and illicit economic sion’s mandate for another year. The UK is the penholder on Colombia.

Somalia

Expected Council Action due on 15 September. The authorisation of Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for two car In September, the Special Representative and AMISOM expires on 31 May 2019. bombs that killed six people on 5 August at head of the UN Assistance Mission in Soma- separate locations in Somalia. At least nine lia (UNSOM), Michael Keating, will brief the Key Recent Developments were killed and several others wounded on Council, followed by consultations. The man- The armed group Al-Shabaab remains high- 13 August in clashes between Al-Shabaab date of UNSOM expires on 27 March 2019. ly active. On 23 July, the group claimed to and local fighters in Juba region when the A joint operational readiness assessment have killed 27 Somali soldiers in an attack on group attacked local farmers. On 16 August, of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is an army base 50 kilometres from Kismayu. Somalian President Mohamed Abdullahi

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOMALIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2431 (30 July 2018) renewed the authorisation of AMISOM until 31 May 2019. S/RES/2408 (27 March 2018) renewed the authorisation of UNSOM for an additional year. S/RES/2385 (14 November 2017) was on Somalia and Eritrea sanctions, with 11 affirmative votes and four abstentions (Bolivia, China, Egypt, and Russia). S/RES/2372 (30 August 2017) reauthorised AMISOM until 31 May 2018. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/411 (2 May 2018) was on UNSOM. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8322 (30 July 2018) was a briefing by the chair of the 751/1907 Somalia and Eritrea Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Kairat Umarov (Kazakhstan). S/PV.8321 (30 July 2018) was the meeting at which resolution 2431 was adopted. Security Council Letters S/2018/687 (11 July 2018) was from Djibouti to the president of the Security Council regarding its unresolved boundary dispute with Eritrea. S/2018/674 (5 July 2018) was the Secretary-General’s report on the comprehensive assessment of AMISOM, requested by resolution 2372.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Somalia

Mohamed replaced key security officials, The resolution stressed the need to adjacent territory, and to engage in the peace- including appointing a new army chief and enhance the predictability, sustainabil- ful settlement of the dispute (resolution 1907 deputy director of the national intelligence ity and flexibility of financing for AU-led imposes sanctions for obstructing the imple- agency, a move authorities said is part of peace support operations authorised by the mentation of resolution 1862 concerning a new strategy to quell the wave of recent Council, repeating language from previous Djibouti). The letter further noted that an attacks. resolutions, and encouraged the Secretary- unsuccessful Qatari mediation effort ended In a 5 July letter to the president of the General, AU and partners to continue to on 13 June 2017, and all Qatari observer Security Council, the Secretary-General explore arrangements to establish secure forces deployed since 2010 have left. Djibou- conveyed the findings of a comprehensive future funding for AMISOM. Though some ti called on the Secretary-General, in close assessment of AMISOM conducted jointly Council members are open to using assessed collaboration with the Security Council, to with the AU, requested by resolution 2372. contributions to fund AMISOM, the US use his good offices to facilitate an agreement This assessment echoed views previously continues to oppose the use of such contri- between the parties on a particular method of expressed by the AMISOM troop-contribut- butions for a non-UN mission. Others have dispute settlement, preferably adjudication or ing countries (TCCs), namely that Somali expressed concerns over AMISOM’s human arbitration. security forces have deficiencies in capacity rights record in this context. On 30 July, the presidents of Eritrea and and in command and control. The assess- On the political front, the UN, the Inter- Somalia announced that the two countries ment concluded that a premature handover governmental Authority on Development would establish diplomatic relations and of security responsibilities would be risky, and (IGAD), AMISOM, the EU, the AU, the exchange ambassadors after years of animos- that the continued presence of AMISOM is UK and the US issued a joint statement on ity. The two also called for the lifting of sanc- necessary during the transition as Somalia 8 August, voicing concern over delays in the tions on Eritrea. builds the capability of its security forces resolution of Somalia’s long-standing politi- and institutions and prepares for elections in cal crisis and urging Somalia to move more Sanctions-Related Developments 2020-2021. These conclusions were similar swiftly on political reforms. The statement On 20 July, Keating briefed the 751/1907 Somalia and Eritrea Sanctions Committee. to those of the December 2017 operational came as Somalia struggled to recover from On 30 July, the chair of the sanctions com- readiness assessment of the Somali security a crisis that was ignited when a recent parlia- mittee, Ambassador Kairat Umarov (Kazakhstan), forces prepared by Somalia at the request of mentary no-confidence vote almost turned briefed the Council on the work of the committee, the Council. violent, eventually resulting in the ouster of followed by consultations. Umarov updated the On 30 July, the Council adopted reso- Somalia’s then prime minister. (The standoff Council on his 4-10 May visit to Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, during which he was lution 2431 renewing the authorisation of ended peacefully after AMISOM intervened accompanied by representatives from Ethiopia, AMISOM until 31 May 2019 and determin- to encourage the sides to engage in dialogue.) Kuwait, the Netherlands and Sweden. The delega- ing that troop levels will be reduced to 20,626 Since then, the Parliament has confirmed tion was unable to visit Eritrea, which has continu- by 28 February 2019, down from the current Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke as the coun- ously refused to cooperate with the committee. 21,626, and that the mission will have a mini- try’s new prime minister. During this meeting, the representative of Djibouti said that as long as Eritrea refuses to comply with mum of 1,040 police personnel. The reduc- On 9 July, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy the sanctions regime, the sanctions must remain tions were in line with the Secretary-General’s Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in place. recommendation that the drawdown (initially signed a peace agreement in Asmara, ending scheduled for 30 October 2018, under res- a 20-year conflict. They restored diplomatic olution 2372) be postponed in light of the relations and agreed to open embassies and Human Rights-Related Developments conclusions of the joint assessment. The reso- resume flight services. In addition, Ethiopia On 13 August, UNSOM and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights released a joint lution stated that the Council regretted the will use port facilities in Eritrea. In a visit to report detailing human rights violations and abus- need for delay in drawing down the level of Ethiopia the same day, the Secretary-Gener- es by state security forces, including the police uniformed AMISOM personnel, and stressed al said that the agreement could lead to the and intelligence agencies, and non-state actors, that there should be no further delay in this removal of UN sanctions on Eritrea. On 23 among them Al-Shabaab, that were committed regard beyond 28 February 2019. The new July, Ambassador Tekeda Alemu (Ethiopia) before, during and after the parliamentary and presidential elections in late 2016 and early 2017. deadline should allow the forthcoming joint updated Council members on the recent According to the report, 13 clan elders and two AU-UN operational readiness assessment of developments under “any other business”. electoral delegates were killed between August AMISOM, as well as the recent joint com- Ethiopia has taken the position that sanctions 2016 and the presidential election on 8 February prehensive assessment of AMISOM, to feed on Eritrea should be lifted. 2017. Violent attacks on people involved in the into the revised AU concept of operations for Welcoming these recent developments in election process continued after this with the killing of 29 clan elders and electoral delegates, AMISOM, which is expected by 1 November. a letter transmitted to the Secretary-General including three women. In addition, journalists, Detailed planning for the first phase of the on 11 July, Djibouti referred to resolutions human rights defenders and political leaders Somali transition plan for its security forces 1862 and 1907 of 2009, which called on were subjected to attacks, intimidation and other to take over responsibilities from AMISOM Eritrea to withdraw its forces to their pre- forms of harassment and interference. The report is also expected to be completed by the end vious positions from an area disputed with concluded that “insecurity, weak justice institu- of the year. Djibouti, the Ras Doumeira peninsula and tions, and an insufficient human rights protection

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 Somalia

system contributed to the lack of accountability remains a contentious issue among Council Another controversial issue is giving for human rights violations throughout Somalia” members. AMISOM a political role, similar to that of a and called for prompt, independent and impartial Council members will consider the impact UN peacekeeping mission, which was advo- investigations into human rights violations and abuses committed in the context of the electoral of the recent positive regional developments cated by Ethiopia during the negotiations. process. The Human Rights Council will hold an on the sanctions regime, particularly as it is After the adoption of resolution 2431, Alemu interactive dialogue with the independent expert scheduled to review the regime and renew said that AMISOM “can and should play a on the situation of human rights in Somalia and some of its elements by 15 November. role in carrying out civilian responsibilities consider his report (A/HRC/39/72) during its complementary to the efforts” of UNSOM. 39th session in September. Council Dynamics Several Council members maintain that this Council members are united in support- would be unnecessary, given UNSOM’s Key Issues and Options ing state-building and in their support for political mandate. A key issue is maintaining AMISOM’s capa- AMISOM and UNSOM. The negotiations Council members have started a conver- bilities until the Somali security forces can over resolution 2431, however, exposed a sation on lifting sanctions on Eritrea. Some progressively take the lead in providing secu- divergence in views among Council members Council members would like to see the sanc- rity and ensuring that AMISOM has the on some important issues. tions lifted soon, especially as the Somalia means to assist Somali security forces to During the negotiations over resolution and Eritrea Monitoring Group has consis- achieve this goal. 2431, France and the US made clear that tently found no evidence that the country has After the postponement of troop reduc- they will not support further delays in troop supported Al-Shabaab in recent years. Others tions to 28 February 2019, a priority for the reductions, and language to that effect was point to the fact that Eritrea has never accept- Council is to continue to monitor the situa- inserted into the text. No Council member ed the Security Council’s sanctions regime tion and the readiness of the Somali security took the position during the negotiations that and take the view that if sanctions are to be forces in order to assess whether the draw- the drawdown should be cancelled altogether. lifted, Eritrea must acknowledge it in some down timeline remains appropriate. However, it is unclear if there will be chang- form. There are also concerns over sanctions Closely related is the continued need to es between now and 28 February 2019 that related to Eritrea’s dispute with Djibouti, secure predictable and sustainable funding make the situation more conducive for troop which have yet to be addressed. for AMISOM and Somali security institu- reductions, or if any progress will be made in The UK is the penholder on Somalia. tions throughout this process, as this subject the implementation of the Somali transition was not addressed in resolution 2431 and plan during this period.

Syria

Expected Council Action groups, hosts hundreds of thousands of civil- that international support for reconstruction In September, the Council expects to receive ians displaced by the conflict, and the UN has will only be possible once a credible political the monthly Syria briefings on the humani- repeatedly warned about the terrible humani- solution is firmly underway. It stated that this tarian situation, political developments, and tarian impact of an escalation of military also requires minimal conditions for stability the use of chemical weapons. activity in and around Idlib. The presence of and inclusiveness, a democratic and inclusive several thousand members of Council-desig- government, an agreed development strategy, Key Recent Developments nated terrorist groups in Idlib continues to reliable and legitimate interlocutors as well as The conflict has been marked in recent weeks be used to justify military operations, as has guarantees in terms of funding accountability. by the consolidation of territory by the gov- happened in other parts of Syria. The political process remains stalled. Spe- ernment in the southwest and the potential A 30-31 July meeting of Iran, Russia and cial Envoy Staffan de Mistura continues his for a military offensive in the northern gov- Turkey in the Russian city of Sochi yielded efforts to facilitate the establishment of a ernorate of Idlib and adjacent areas, near the no agreement on Idlib’s fate. The final state- constitutional committee. While the govern- border with Turkey. While Idlib was supposed ment calls upon the international community ment and the opposition have provided a list to be part of a de-escalation zone agreed to to restore basic infrastructure assets, includ- of 50 candidates for the committee, de Mis- by Iran, Russia and Turkey, it has been the ing social and economic facilities. However, tura has reiterated the importance of includ- target of Russian and Syrian airstrikes. Idlib, the final declaration of an EU-UN confer- ing civil society and fulfilling the aspiration which remains under the control of armed ence held in Brussels on 24-25 April stressed for women to make up 30 percent of the

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2401 (24 February 2018) demanded that all parties cease hostilities in Syria. S/RES/2393 (19 December 2017) renewed the authorisation for cross-border and cross-line aid delivery. S/RES/2254 (18 December 2015) was on a political solution to the Syrian crisis. S/RES/2118 (27 September 2013) was on chemical weapons. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2018/777 (22 August 2018) was the monthly report on the humanitarian situation. S/2018/617 (19 June 2018) was a review of the UN’s humanitarian cross-border operations. Security Council Letter S/2018/745 (27 July 2018) was an OPCW report on progress in the elimination of the Syrian chemical weapons programme. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8320 (27 July 2018) was a briefing by Lowcock and Gamba on humanitarian developments and the situation of children in Syria.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Syria committee. At a 25 July briefing to Council submitted by the Syrian government to the for a political process, investigating the use members, he emphasised some of the chal- OPCW in 2013 was incomplete. The Fact- and providing for the destruction of chemical lenges that he is facing in facilitating that Finding Mission of the OPCW continues to weapons, and authorising cross-border deliv- process, such as fostering agreement on the investigate the 7 April incident in Douma. eries of humanitarian relief. As the political committee’s purpose, its membership and its The OPCW Technical Secretariat is current- climate deteriorated, the Security Council rules of procedure, including decision-mak- ly putting in place arrangements to identify failed to renew the mandate of the OPCW- ing mechanisms. In press elements agreed to the perpetrators of the use of chemical weap- UN Joint Investigative Mechanism in late at the meeting, Council members called on ons in Syria in line with the decision taken on 2017, and there is a risk that Council deci- the Syrian parties to engage with the Spe- 27 June by the Conference of States Parties to sions may be further undermined. Council cial Envoy constructively, in good faith and the Chemical Weapons Convention. members could hold informal, unscripted and without preconditions over the constitution- In late July, terrorist raids and suicide forward-looking discussions at the ambassa- al committee. De Mistura has invited Iran, bombings in the southern city of Sweida dorial level to seek ways to increase pressure Russia and Turkey for formal consultations killed more than 200 people. According to on the parties to the conflict and strive for a in Geneva on 11-12 September to work on press reports, several meetings have taken political settlement that is both realistic and the constitutional committee. place between Kurdish representatives hold- acceptable to all. Humanitarian access continues to be ing territorial control in north-eastern Syria Since it was established in August 2011, restricted for the UN and its partners, despite and government representatives in Damascus the Human Rights Council’s Independent the swaths of territory that are increasingly to discuss self-administration. So far, these International Commission of Inquiry on under the control of the government and the meetings have been inconclusive. Syria has briefed Council members in an fact that it would be possible to deliver aid Arria-formula meeting seven times, most through regular Damascus-based humanitar- Human Rights-Related Developments recently on 21 April 2017. Council mem- ian programmes. In a press conference on 9 In a 31 July press statement, the spokesperson bers could hold a meeting to be briefed on of the High Commissioner for Human Rights August, Jan Egeland, the special advisor to the commission’s newest report, released in strongly condemned the attacks in Sweida by the UN Special Envoy for Syria, highlighted the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). June, on the siege of Eastern Ghouta, which the need for more protection guarantees for According to the statement, ISIL militants raided could also be transmitted to the Council as civilians notwithstanding the deployment of homes in at least eight villages, shooting and kill- an official document. Russian military police in some of the terri- ing civilians inside their homes and abducting women and children. The ISIL militants included tory recently taken over by the government. Council and Wider Dynamics many who were recently evacuated and relo- On 27 July, Under-Secretary-General cated from the Palestinian Yarmouk refugee Council dynamics on Syria continue to be for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock camp, Hajar Al-Aswad, and Al-Tadamon areas characterised by increased polarisation on the and Special Representative for Children and of southern Damascus as part of a government three files through which the conflict is dis- Armed Conflict Virginia Gamba briefed the reconciliation agreement. “The transfer of armed cussed: political, humanitarian, and chemical fighters with a history of gross human rights Council on humanitarian developments and weapons. In May, P5 members started meet- abuses and contempt towards international law the situation of children in Syria. Sweden, as can mean an increase in the likelihood of violent ing regularly on Syria at the ambassadorial Council President, conceived the meeting as attacks against civilians like the ones carried out… level, but it seems that these discussions have a way to address the special vulnerabilities of in Sweida”, the spokesperson said. “We urge the now subsided. As the government consoli- children in Syria. Gamba told Council mem- Syrian government not to put civilians at serious dates territory, including in areas of strategic bers that since the beginning of 2018 alone, risk through such relocations”. The Human Rights importance for external actors near Syria’s Council will hold an interactive dialogue with the over 1,200 violations against children have Independent International Commission of Inquiry borders, the regional dimension of the con- been verified. These include more than 600 on Syria and consider the commission’s report (A/ flict is likely to feature more prominently in children killed or maimed, and more than HRC/39/65) during its 39th session in September. Council discussions. 180 recruited and used for military purpos- In December 2017, the adoption of res- es. In addition, more than 60 schools have Key Issues and Options olution 2393, drafted by Egypt, Japan and been attacked, and there have been over 100 The current level of P5 divisions raises the Sweden, renewed the authorisation for cross- attacks on hospitals and medical facilities or question of whether the Council will be able border humanitarian access to Syria. It was personnel. Actual numbers may be much to work constructively on Syria in the foresee- adopted with the abstentions of Bolivia, Chi- higher, Gamba told the Council. able future. If the paralysis continues, those na and Russia. In explaining their vote, Chi- The deputy to the High Representative with even a limited capacity to act—whether na and Russia highlighted the importance of for Disarmament Affairs, Thomas Markram, elected members, the Secretary-General, or working through the government and even- briefed Council members in consultations on members of the General Assembly—may tually rolling back a provision that had been 2 August. Although the two remaining chemi- seek to take the initiative. devised originally as a temporary measure. In cal weapons production facilities have been While divided on Syria for more than the Council, Russia has continued to ques- destroyed, the Organisation for the Prohibi- seven years, the Council has been able to tion the raison d’être of this mechanism, tion of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) contin- unite at times around some aspects of the which is currently authorised until 10 Janu- ues to consider that the initial declaration conflict, such as initially setting the agenda ary 2019.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 Syria

As pressure mounts to facilitate the return always have a right to return, this has to be Kuwait and Sweden are the penholders on of Syrian refugees in neighbouring countries, voluntary, sustainable, and under safe and humanitarian issues in Syria. UNHCR has emphasised that while refugees dignified conditions.

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, an who had travelled to Afghanistan from 6 to In September, the Council will hold its quarter- oversight body reporting to the US Congress, 8 August, gave the requested update. He ly debate on Afghanistan and will consider the puts Taliban control at almost one-fifth of repeated Yamamoto’s concerns, adding that latest Secretary-General’s report on the UN Afghan territory. recent disqualification of over 30 candidates Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Preparations for the forthcoming elections for supposed connections to armed groups Tadamichi Yamamoto, the Secretary-General’s are a major preoccupation. Parliamentary had led to protests in Kabul. Special Representative for Afghanistan and and district council elections are to be held In late July, a meeting was held in Qatar head of UNAMA, is expected to brief. A civil on 20 October, and the Afghan Independent between representatives of the US and the Tal- society representative might also brief. Election Commission (IEC) announced on 1 iban for the first time in seven years, with the The mandate of UNAMA expires on 17 August that the presidential election would be next round of talks planned for later this year. March 2019. held on 20 April 2019. During his last Secu- President Ghani’s wide-ranging offer to rity Council briefing, on 26 June, Yamamoto the Taliban during the second meeting of the Key Recent Developments raised concerns about the electoral process Kabul Process for Peace and Security Cooper- On 19 August, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani so far. For instance, in some provinces, only a ation in Afghanistan in February is still stand- announced another ceasefire with the Taliban, small percentage of eligible voters registered; ing. It includes talks about a ceasefire, prison- following a unilateral ceasefire in June for the in other regions, people were unable to reg- er exchange, a review of the constitution, and Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr. In response, the ister for security and logistical reasons. Con- the removal of sanctions against insurgents. Taliban had observed a three-day ceasefire, sidering the multi-ethnic composition of the The Taliban usually do not respond formally limited to the Afghan government. Condition- Afghan population, Yamamoto warned that to offers by the Afghan government, as they al upon reciprocity by the insurgents, the lat- these registration disparities among commu- do not recognise its legitimacy. est government ceasefire started on 20 August, nities might lead to challenges to the election Terrorist attacks, perpetrated mostly by the holiday of Eid al-Adha, and may last until results. The voter registration process con- the Taliban and the Islamic State in Iraq 21 November (the celebration of the birthday cluded on 18 July with 8.9 million Afghans and the Levant (ISIL), continued to shape of the Prophet Muhammad). This announce- registered, according to a preliminary esti- the security situation. In line with its usual ment was welcomed by Council members mate. In a 23 July presidential statement, the practice, the Council reacted by issuing press with a press statement, urging the Taliban to Council pointed out matters in which prog- statements condemning these attacks. reciprocate. At press time, the Taliban had not ress is still needed, including a central data- Additionally, two-thirds of Afghanistan shown willingness to adhere to a ceasefire. base of registered voters and the publication is currently suffering an unusually severe Following a large-scale assault by the Tali- of a final list of candidates for this year’s elec- drought, resulting in over 100,000 people ban and five days of heavy fighting in Ghazni tions. The Council also requested UNAMA having left their homes in search of water, City in mid-August, Afghan security forces, to update Council members on electoral according to OCHA. supported by US forces, regained full con- preparations within one month of the adop- trol of the city. According to preliminary UN tion of the statement. On 22 August, under ICC-Related Developments estimates, 300 civilians were killed. The lat- “any other business”, UN Assistant Secretary- On 20 November 2017, ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda requested authorisation from the est quarterly report by the Special Inspector General for Political Affairs Miroslav Jenča,

UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2405 (8 March 2018) renewed the mandate of UNAMA until 17 March 2019. S/RES/2255 (21 December 2015) contained language clarifying how the 1988 Afghanistan sanctions regime functions and reflecting changing conflict dynamics in Afghanistan. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2018/15 (23 July 2018) was on the electoral process, following the conclusion of the voter registration process on 18 July for this year’s parliamentary and district council elections and for the 2019 presidential elections. S/PRST/2018/2 (19 January 2018) emphasised the importance of advancing regional, interregional and international cooperation to achieve stability and sustainable development in Afghanistan and the Central Asian region. S/PRST/2017/15 (24 August 2017) was on the review of the implementation of resolution 2255. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/539 (6 June 2018) was the latest report on Afghanistan. Security Council Letter S/2018/37 (12 January 2018) contained the terms of reference for the visiting mission to Afghanistan. Security Council Press Statements SC/13467 (27 August 2018) welcomed the announcement by the government of Afghanistan on 19 August of a second conditional ceasefire with the Taliban from the start of the Eid al-Adha holiday and urged the Taliban to reciprocate without delay. SC/13457 (15 August 2018) condemned the terrorist attack that took place in Kabul on 15 August against an education centre, which resulted in at least 48 people killed and numerous wounded. SC/13444 (3 August 2018) condemned in the strongest terms the terrorist attacks that took place the week before, targeting a medical centre for midwives and a government building in Jalalabad as well as the Khawaja Hassan mosque in Gardez, resulting in at least 48 people killed and numerous wounded. SC/13408 (2 July 2018) condemned the terrorist attack that took place in Jalalabad on 1 July, which resulted in at least 19 people killed and many wounded, for which ISIL claimed responsibility. SC/13386 (18 June 2018) condemned the two terrorist attacks that took place in Nangarhar on 16 and 17 June, which resulted in at least 43 people killed and 45 injured and for one of which ISIL claimed responsibility. SC/13385 (18 June 2018) welcomed the announcement by the government of Afghanistan on 16 June to extend the temporary ceasefire with the Taliban after the Eid al-Fitr holiday and expressed its strong disappointment that the Taliban had not extended their previously announced partial ceasefire. SC/13376 (11 June 2018) welcomed the announcement by the government of Afghanistan on 7 June of a temporary ceasefire with the Taliban for the end of Ramadan and the Eid al‑Fitr holiday and welcomed the subsequent announcement by the Taliban of a three‑day partial ceasefire. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8294 (26 June 2018) was the latest quarterly debate on Afghanistan.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Afghanistan

Court’s judges to initiate an investigation into between 1 August 2015 and 31 December 2017, up 63 percent over 2016. Council priorities alleged international crimes in the context of and focus group discussions with 1,826 media- include awaiting the next steps in the frame- the ongoing armed conflict in Afghanistan since tors. It concluded that the wide use of mediation work of the Kabul process and holding inclu- 2003. These included war crimes (committed by in criminal offences of violence against women the Taliban and their affiliated Haqqani Network, promotes impunity, enables the recurrence of sive, transparent and credible parliamentary Afghan security forces, the United States armed violence, and erodes trust in the legal system. and district council elections in 2018 and forces, and the US Central Intelligence Agency) Among its recommendations, the report calls for presidential elections in 2019. and crimes against humanity (committed by the the expansion of authorities’ obligation to investi- Taliban and their affiliated Haqqani Network). gate and prosecute criminal offences of violence Council Dynamics The victims representation process at the ICC against women, particularly to include forced mar- concluded on 31 January. The judges received riages and harmful traditional practices. Council members are generally concerned a report prepared by the Victims Participation about the progressively more volatile secu- and Reparations Section; a redacted version of rity environment and its implications for the the report was made public on 20 February. The Key Issues and Options civilian population, specifically in the context judges will consider the report and the facts pre- The Council faces a variety of ongoing issues of the upcoming elections. In addition to the sented by the prosecutor in deciding whether to comply with her request. that continue to grow in complexity. Afghan recent surge of hostilities by the Taliban, the civilians still bear the heaviest burden of the presence of ISIL and its violent tactics have security situation, as evident from the latest added another layer of complexity to the con- Human Rights-Related Developments UNAMA mid-year update on the protection flict, with a potential to deepen ethnic and On 29 May, UNAMA and the UN Human Rights of civilians in armed conflict, which reported sectarian tensions. Among permanent mem- Office released a joint report, Injustice and Impu- 5,122 civilian casualties in the first six months bers, Russia in particular has continued to nity: Mediation of Criminal Offences against Women, which examined the wide use of media- of 2018. The security situation is further emphasise the threat ISIL poses in Afghani- tion by community leaders, as well as institutions complicated by the increased presence of stan. The issue of attributing responsibility for aimed at eliminating violence against women, to ISIL and other terrorist groups. Insurgency civilian casualties remains a sensitive matter resolve criminal offences against women. The in Afghanistan continues to be closely inter- among the permanent members. report is based on 280 cases of murder, including linked with illicit drug production and traf- The Netherlands is the penholder on “honour killings” in 2016 and 2017, a further 237 documented cases of violence against women ficking, activities that reached record levels Afghanistan, and Kazakhstan chairs the 1988 during 2017, when opium cultivation was Afghanistan Sanctions Committee.

South Sudan

Expected Council Action civilians. South Sudan faces unprecedented will be first vice-president and four other vice- In September, the Council expects a briefing levels of hunger and malnutrition as conflict presidents will be nominated, one by each of on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on and broader insecurity further decrease food the parties specified in the agreement. There South Sudan, requested in resolution 2406. production and access to food. Combined will be 35 ministers, ten deputy ministers and Council members will also receive his month- with the impact of the lean season, which 550 members of parliament, in accordance ly report on violations of the Status of Forces typically runs from May to July, this could with the number of representatives from the Agreement or obstructions to the UN Mis- cause around 7.1 million people in the coun- different parties set out in the agreement. An sion in South Sudan (UNMISS). try (63 percent of the population) to become independent boundaries commission will be The mandate of UNMISS expires on 15 severely food insecure in the coming months. appointed to consider and make recommenda- March 2019. Following negotiations in July facilitated tions on the number of states and their bound- by Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, South aries. Al-Bashir and President Yoweri Museveni Key Recent Developments Sudanese President Salva Kiir and opposition of Uganda signed the agreement as guaran- There has been recent progress in the peace leader Riek Machar signed an agreement on tors, and it was witnessed by representatives process, followed by some reduction in the 5 August on outstanding issues of governance of the UN, the AU and the Intergovernmental fighting which continued despite the cessa- and responsibility-sharing in Khartoum. Other Authority on Development (IGAD). Sudan tion of hostilities declared in December 2017 parties, including the South Sudan Opposition transmitted the agreement to the Council the and the permanent ceasefire agreed to in June. Alliance and Former Detainees, also signed following day. The agreement was welcomed The human rights, humanitarian, food secu- the agreement after initially refusing to do so. by the Secretary-General, the Chairperson rity and economic conditions in the country According to its terms, during a transitional of the AU Commission, the Joint Monitor- remain dire, with an enormous impact on period, Kiir will remain president, Machar ing and Evaluation Commission, and Special

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2428 (13 July 2018) imposed an arms embargo and additional targeted sanctions and renewed the sanc- tions regime and mandate of the Panel of Experts. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/609 (14 June 2018) was the 90-day report on South Sudan. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8310 (13 July 2018) was the adoption of resolution 2428. Security Council Letter S/2018/574 (6 August 2018) was from Sudan transmitting the agreement on outstanding issues of governance and responsibility sharing. Sanctions Committee Document S/2018/776 (20 August 2018) extended the appointments of the Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts.

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 South Sudan

Representative and head of UNMISS David direct causes” and demanding that all parties including in the context of the lack of support Shearer. The members of the Troika (Nor- allow unhindered humanitarian access. The for the Council’s imposition of such measures way, the UK and the US) said in a statement press elements also welcomed the region’s among key regional actors. An option would on 10 August that “[c]onsiderable challenges role in reaching agreement on outstanding be to use the various ways in which the Coun- lie ahead” and expressed concern that “the governance and security issues but noted that cil can receive relevant information, as set out arrangements agreed to date are not realistic “considerable challenges remain”, including in resolution 2428, to inform the Council’s or sustainable”. Regarding next steps, the state- the need for detailed plans for implementa- response in this regard. ment urged the parties to involve “a wider range tion. In addition, they called for immediate The Council could also revisit the idea of of stakeholders, and develop clear plans for the implementation of the ceasefire and for the holding an Arria-formula meeting with the transition period, including how resources will parties to demonstrate commitment to fully Commission on Human Rights in South be used in a transparent and accountable way implement and finalise a more inclusive and Sudan, given the high levels of violations and for the benefit of all South Sudanese”. It added, revitalised ARCSS. (For more details, see our abuses of human rights and the Commis- “[c]ritical questions remain, such as how secu- What’s in Blue story of 9 August.) sion’s recent visit. The idea of holding such a rity will be provided in Juba during the transi- meeting was proposed in July, but it has not tion period and how meaningful checks will be Sanctions-Related Developments yet taken place. placed on executive power”. On 20 August, the Secretary-General appoint- ed five members of the Sanctions Committee’s The 5 August agreement deals only with Council Dynamics Panel of Experts until 1 July 2019. On 27 August, outstanding governance and security issues. committee chair Ambassador Joanna Wronecka Council members share deep concern about The parties still need to sign a final agreement (Poland) and the coordinator of the Panel of the crisis in South Sudan and its devastating that will address revitalisation of other aspects Experts briefed the committee on their respec- impact on civilians and, in this context, con- of the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of tive reports following their visit to South Sudan, tinue to be supportive of the roles played by Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya from 16 to 26 June. the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS). The IGAD and the region towards a political res- IGAD heads of state and government said in olution of the conflict. While some Council a communiqué on 5 August that al-Bashir will Human Rights-Related Developments members may be cautiously optimistic about continue to facilitate talks between the parties The Commission on Human Rights in South the recent progress made by the parties, other Sudan conducted its fifth field mission to South until such a final agreement is signed. On 9 members are more sceptical as to whether, Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Sudan and Ethiopia, from August, the IGAD Council of Ministers con- 20 to 31 August. The Human Rights Council will when and how the various agreements will vened an extraordinary session in Khartoum on hold an interactive dialogue with the Commission be implemented and if this will translate into the situation in South Sudan and decided the during its 39th session in September. an improved situation on the ground. Several following day to set 19 August as the deadline members, including the Netherlands, togeth- for the conclusion of the next round of talks in Key Issues and Options er with Côte d’Ivoire, Kuwait and Sweden, Khartoum. Talks between the parties were held A key issue is how the Council can support are particularly concerned about the cur- from 13 to 19 August on the remaining unre- IGAD and other regional actors in finalising rent lack of food security and the alarming solved issues, including Article 4 of the ARC- the peace process and ensuring implementa- humanitarian situation. SS, dealing with the number and boundaries tion of the various agreements, given what the The longstanding issue of whether the of states; the creation of five new ministries; Council called in resolution 2428 “continued Council should impose an arms embargo judicial reforms; composition of the National and flagrant violations” of the ARCSS, the was resolved with the adoption of resolution Constitutional Amendment Committee; the 21 December 2017 Cessation of Hostilities 2428 on 13 July, which passed with nine votes, powers and functions of the president and vice Agreement, and the 27 June Khartoum Dec- the minimum number required for adoption presidents; and an implementation matrix. On laration. An option would be to invite Haysom under the UN Charter. Bolivia, China, Equa- 20 August, the talks were postponed until after to brief the Council on a more regular basis in torial Guinea, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan and Rus- the Eid Al Adha holidays to 25 August. At press the future. Another option would be to adopt sia abstained. However, several members still time, the parties were expected to initial a final a presidential statement or press statement hold the view that the timing was not appropri- agreement on 30 August. calling for implementation of the various ate, given the ongoing peace process, and that On 10 August, Security Council members agreements concluded by the parties, includ- more should have been done to obtain a higher held consultations on South Sudan, focus- ing unhindered humanitarian access and evi- level of consensus within the Council ahead ing on food security and developments in the dence of a sustained, significant reduction in of the adoption and to coordinate any such peace process. Under-Secretary-General for violence. To reduce the level of violence and efforts with regional organisations and actors. Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock, Special exert leverage on the parties, Council mem- The US is the penholder on South Sudan. Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan Nicholas bers could consider imposing, or threatening Poland chairs the 2206 South Sudan Sanc- Haysom, and Shearer briefed during the con- to impose, further targeted sanctions against tions Committee. sultations. Following this, Council members those who undermine the process. issued press elements expressing “grave con- Another key issue for the Council is the cern about the level of food insecurity”, with implementation of the arms embargo and tar- the ongoing conflict “being one of the main geted sanctions imposed by resolution 2428,

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Sudan/South Sudan

Expected Council Action six specific measures set out in the resolu- contributing to preventing conflict between In September, the Council expects to receive tion. (For more details, see our What’s in the two countries and that its full deploy- a briefing on the UN Interim Security Force Blue stories of 22 April and 14 May.) ment is of “paramount importance”. A larg- for Abyei (UNISFA) and on the report of the Resolution 2416 expressed the Coun- er police component is also recommended, Secretary-General containing detailed rec- cil’s intention to revise the configuration and including the addition of specialised police ommendations about the reconfiguration of mandate of UNISFA, following recommen- officers to provide advisory support and the UNISFA, requested in resolution 2416 and dations to this effect in the 22 April confi- transfer of some tasks from the military to the submitted to the Council in August. Council dential letter from the Secretary-General. police. These proposed changes would rep- members also expect to receive by 15 Sep- The Secretary-General’s letter presented a resent an overall decrease in troop numbers. tember a report from the Secretary-General, summary of the independent and integrated Council members were last briefed on requested in resolution 2412, on progress in review of UNISFA conducted from Febru- UNISFA on 24 April by Under-Secretary- implementing any steps taken by the parties ary to April (the mission was one of the eight General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean- as set out in that resolution as well as resolu- peacekeeping operations subject to review, as Pierre Lacroix and Special Envoy for Sudan tion 2386. This report may also be covered initiated by the Secretary-General). The reso- and South Sudan Nicholas Haysom. The during the briefing. lution acknowledges that “over the course of briefing was held in consultations and not The mandate of UNISFA expires on 15 the seven years since [the] establishment of in the open chamber, as was the case at the November. The mission’s support for the UNISFA, the mission has been able to stabi- preceding briefing on the issue on 26 Octo- Joint Border Verification and Monitoring lize and demilitarize the Abyei Area and that ber 2017. Mechanism (JBVMM), established in 2011 UNISFA is now an interim security force to conduct monitoring and verification activi- with no viable exit strategy”. It requested the Key Issues and Options ties along the Sudan/South Sudan border, Secretary-General to report by 15 August A key issue for the Council is whether to expires on 15 October. on detailed recommendations regarding the maintain UNISFA’s support to the JBVMM. reconfiguration of UNISFA’s mandate “to An option is to continue the mission’s sup- Key Recent Developments create the space for a viable political pro- port in recognition of recent efforts made The security situation in Abyei, the disputed cess that would also serve as an exit strategy, by the parties towards its full operationali- territory along the Sudan/South Sudan bor- including the role of the UN Country Teams sation, including the establishment of some der, remains relatively stable but unpredict- in support of rule of law and peacebuilding, team sites along the border crossing corri- able in the absence of significant progress on and detailed information on steps the govern- dors. Continued support could include some establishing temporary arrangements for its ments should take to create the conditions for or all of the 20 August recommendations of administration and security pending resolu- an exit strategy”. the Secretary-General related to the JBVMM. tion of its final status. Humanitarian needs Council members received the Secretary- Another option is to retain the mission’s sup- remain substantial and are exacerbated by General’s further recommendations on 20 port for a shorter period, as a means of put- intercommunal tensions and a lack of basic August, which propose that the mission be ting pressure on the parties to intensify efforts public services. In this context, UNISFA reconfigured to play an enhanced and more to fully implement the JBVMM and reach a continues to carry out its mandate, includ- proactive role in support of a political solution political solution. A further option is for the ing ongoing facilitation of peaceful migration to resolving the final status of Abyei, includ- Council to take no action to extend the mis- throughout Abyei; conflict prevention and ing implementation by Sudan and South sion’s support for the JBVMM, which would deterrence; and mediation. Sudan of two agreements concluded in 2011 result in UNISFA’s troop levels decreasing On 15 May, the Council unanimously on border issues and security arrangements. on 15 October from 4,500 to 3,959, as set adopted resolution 2416, which renewed Acknowledging that the mission “has lacked out in resolution 2416. the mandate of UNISFA until 15 November the civilian tools to keep the parties engaged”, Another key issue for the Council to con- and reduced the authorised troop ceiling of recommendations include appointing a civil- sider is the appropriateness of UNISFA’s the mission from 4,791 to 4,500. Resolu- ian deputy head of mission to function as current mandate in relation to its strategic tion 2416 authorised a further decrease in the the main focal point on political matters and priorities and the situation on the ground, troop ceiling to 3,959 on 15 October, unless expanding UNISFA’s civilian component. (A ahead of the mandate renewal in Novem- the Council decides to extend the mission’s 2015 decision by the Secretary-General to ber. This assessment could be informed support to the JBVMM, which remains at appoint a civilian head of mission was never by the 20 August recommendations of the initial operating capability. Resolution 2412, implemented.) Recommended changes to Secretary-General. adopted on 23 April, extended the mission’s the mission’s military component include support for the JBVMM until 15 October, transferring troops to the JBVMM to fully Council Dynamics saying this would be the final such extension operationalise it, based on the reduced need Over the last several years, the US has repeat- unless the parties demonstrate measurable for a large military presence and the assess- edly expressed its concern that UNISFA is progress on border demarcation in line with ment that the JBVMM “remains vital” in persisting longer than had been intended

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2416 (15 May 2018) extended UNISFA’s mandate until 15 November and reduced the authorised troop ceiling of the mission from 4,791 to 4,500. S/RES/2412 (23 April 2018) extended UNISFA’s support for the JBVMM until 15 October. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/293 (3 April 2018) was on the situation in Abyei. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8078 (26 October 2017) was a briefing on Sudan/South Sudan. Security Council Letter S/2018/778 (20 August 2018) was from the Secretary-General transmitting recommendations on the reconfiguration of UNISFA’s mandate.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 Sudan/South Sudan for an interim force, and that Sudan and supported by some other members. Ethiopia Regarding the JBVMM, Ethiopia and sev- South Sudan are taking advantage of the had similarly expressed concern about troop eral other Council members are of the view relative stability that UNISFA provides to reductions during negotiations in Novem- that suspending the mission’s support to the delay attempts to resolve the status of Abyei ber 2017 on resolution 2386 and in April JBVMM would undermine the effectiveness and related border-security issues. During on resolution 2412, both of which ultimately of the mission, and that the parties have tak- the negotiations for resolution 2416, the maintained a troop ceiling of 4,791, despite en sufficient steps towards establishing the US again pushed for troop reductions. The initial drafts seeking to reduce it. Insofar as JBVMM to merit retaining support. This dif- reduction in the troop ceiling initially pro- the reconfiguration of UNISFA will like- ference in perspective will likely feature in dis- posed by the US was slightly adjusted (from ly involve further troop reductions, these cussions ahead of deciding whether to extend 4,222 to 4,500) as a compromise following dynamics are expected to arise again in dis- support for the JBVMM in October. opposition from Ethiopia (UNISFA’s prima- cussions leading up to the mandate renewal The US is the penholder on Abyei. ry troop-contributing country), which was in November.

Corruption and Conflict

Expected Council Action in his reports to the Council on country situ- the Council’s agenda. On the one hand, tack- In September, the US is planning to hold ations before it. More broadly, the Council ling corruption may factor into the broader a briefing under the agenda item “Mainte- has addressed misappropriation of resources idea of prevention of conflict; on the other nance of International Peace and Security” within sanctions regimes. For instance, in the hand it may also be of relevance to combat- on corruption and conflict. Secretary-Gen- cases of Somalia, the Council has banned ting the financing of terrorism and conflicts eral António Guterres will brief. Additionally, trade in charcoal, and in Libya, trade in crude over resources in country-specific situations John Prendergast, Founding Director of the oil, among others. before the Council. Concrete settings for Enough Project and co-founder of The Sentry The Enough Project researches conflicts implementation of these ideas could be sanc- will brief. A formal outcome is not anticipated. in African countries and advocates for peace tions regimes and resolutions. Another point and an end to mass atrocities. Connected to could be to strengthen the involvement of Background the Enough Project is The Sentry, an organ- civil society and its expertise, also with a view Within the UN system, different bodies isation researching financial networks prof- to UN involvement in peacebuilding, where have addressed the issue of corruption. For iting from and supporting armed conflict existing state structures may have suffered instance, the preamble of the UN Conven- and atrocities with the ultimate aim of alter- from the corrosive effects of corruption. tion against Corruption names corruption ing those systems, with a focus on countries as a threat to the stability of societies and as in Africa. Council Dynamics a transnational problem in need of interna- On most occasions when the Council discuss- tional cooperation. The Executive Director Key Issues and Options es thematic issues not formally on its agenda, of the UN Office of Drugs and Crime, Yury This is the first time that a Council meet- some member states, in particular China Fedotov, called the fight against corruption ing considers corruption as a cross-cutting and Russia but also several elected members, “a vital component of our collective efforts to issue. While no formal Council product is express the view that the Council’s taking on strengthen peace and security […]” during envisaged, the meeting is expected to focus the topic encroaches on the authority of other a high-level debate at the UN in New York on the link between corruption and instabil- UN organs. Considering that the focus of this in May to mark the 15th anniversary of the ity, and ultimately conflict, and how best to meeting is unprecedented, similar points can adoption of the convention. The Secretary- confront that cycle. Members may suggest be anticipated. General has addressed the issue of corruption how to incorporate these issues into topics on

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Security Council Report Staff

Karin Landgren Executive Director

Joanna Weschler Deputy Executive Director

Shamala Kandiah Thompson Deputy Executive Director

Paul Romita Senior Policy Analyst

Victor Casanova Abos Policy Analyst

Lindiwe Knutson Policy Analyst

Vladimir Sesar Policy Analyst

Eran Sthoeger Policy Analyst

Vanessa Tiede Policy Analyst

Benjamin Villanti Policy Analyst

Robbin VanNewkirk Website Manager

Audrey Waysse Operations Manager

Maritza Lopez Administrative Assistant

Kaitlyn Lynes Research Assistant

Security Council Report is a non- profit organisation supported by the Governments of Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Equatorial Guinea, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Kuwait, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Timor-Leste, Turkey and United Arab Emirates, and Carnegie Corporation, Humanity United and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.

Design Point Five, NY

Security Council Report 711 Third Avenue, Suite 1501 New York NY 10017

Telephone +1 212 759 6394 Fax +1 212 759 4038 Web securitycouncilreport.org whatsinblue.org

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2018