January 2020

Monthly Forecast

1 Overview Overview 1 In Hindsight: The Security Council and Cyber Threats Viet Nam has the presidency of the Council in Jan- The other regular Middle East meetings are: 3 Status Update uary. It has chosen to hold a ministerial-level open • Syria, the regular briefings on the political debate on “Maintenance of international peace and humanitarian situation and on chemical 5 Syria and security: upholding the UN Charter”. Viet weapons; 6 Mali Nam’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Min- • Israel/Palestine, the quarterly open debate. 8 West Africa and the ister, Pham Binh Minh, is expected to chair the Meetings on situations in South America and Sahel meeting, and Secretary-General António Guterres Europe are also expected in January. The Coun- 9 The UN Charter is expected to brief. Viet Nam will also convene cil will hold a briefing followed by consultations 10 Yemen a briefing on cooperation withregional and sub- on Colombia on the Secretary-General’s 90-day 12 Colombia regional organisations, with a focus on ASEAN. report on the UN Verification Mission in Colom- The Council is expected to receive updates on bia. On Cyprus, Council members will be briefed 13 Libya the activities of two UN regional offices. There in consultations on recent developments and the 15 Cyprus will be a briefing on the UN Office in West Africa latest report on the UN Peacekeeping Force in 16 Middle East (Israel/ and the Sahel (UNOWAS) and a briefing in con- Cyprus (UNFICYP), and the Council is expected Palestine) sultations on the UN Regional Centre for Pre- to renew the mandate of UNFICYP by the end 17 UNRCCA (Central Asia) ventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). of the month. 18 Cooperation between On African issues, there will be updates on the At press time, the Council had been unable to the UN and Regional activities of the UN missions in Libya (UNSMIL) re-authorise the cross-border humanitarian aid Organisations and Mali (MINUSMA). An adoption is sched- mechanism in Syria. If agreement is not reached 19 Central African uled at the end of the month to renew the Central by the end of 2019, members are likely to con- Republic African Republic sanctions regime and the man- tinue to negotiate a new mandate prior to the date of its Panel of Experts. expiration of the current one on 10 January. Regarding Yemen, the Council is expected Council members will most likely follow to renew the mandate of the UN Mission to closely developments in the Democratic Peo- support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) ple’s Republic of Korea, South Sudan, and the before mid-January. It will also receive the Democratic Republic of the Congo, although monthly briefing followed by consultations, on no meetings on these issues were scheduled at implementation of resolutions 2451 and 2452. press time.

In Hindsight: The Security Council and Cyber Threats

The world’s first electronic computer, ENIAC applications, but a far-reaching dark side. (Electronic Numerical Integrator and Comput- Technology has been used to misinform and er), was completed in 1945, the year the United deceive populations in ways that subvert national Nations was created. ENIAC’s applications were unity and coherence, whip up polarising and dead- military: it was financed by the US Army. Nearly ly hatreds, and disrupt public infrastructure. Facial 23 December 2019 75 years later, technology has vast reach and desta- recognition technology offers behavioural—and This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. bilising potential: a recent United Nations Univer- political—microtargeting and with it the potential sity report says that the combination of artificial to intimidate and control populations, potentially For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please intelligence (AI) and other powerful dual-use tech- infringing on human rights including freedom subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” nologies places the world at “a time of technologi- of expression and peaceful assembly. By weap- series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. cal rupture with implications for large-scale crisis onising societal disruption, cyber technology has prevention”. There are innumerable life-improving brought a new elasticity to concepts of threats to

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: The Security Council and Cyber Threats international peace and security. the issue in informal meetings and as part The 2017 Arria-formula meeting on Military cyber applications are evolv- of a broader discussion. In August 2019, a hybrid wars covered a broad range of hostile ing rapidly. Many technologies are broadly concept note for a ministerial-level debate interventions. According to the concept note accessible not only to states but also to cyber- on challenges to peace and security in the for the meeting, these included “advanced mercenaries and terrorists. Their capacity for Middle East, organised by Poland, suggest- weapons systems, cyber-attacks, interference concealment and anonymity can make attri- ed that members consider “[h]ow to coun- with political processes, quasi-military activi- bution of responsibility for violations of inter- teract cyber threats, including threats to ties, systematic dissemination of propaganda national law—and therefore accountability— energy infrastructure, in terms of promoting domestically and internationally, secret intel- extremely difficult. cooperative mechanisms for deterring and ligence operations and abuse and manipula- The range of potentially aggressive responding to significant cyber incidents in tion of available international instruments… actions coming under the cyber rubric is the Middle East” (S/2019/643), and several used to achiev[e] political objectives”. Hybrid vast, yet apart from autonomous weapons participants addressed this in their interven- warfare, the note went on to say, “involves systems and robotics, and the threat of a tions (S/PV.8600). actions designed to fall below military cyberattack on nuclear weapons systems, Speaking at the annual “Hitting the response thresholds to deny or de-legitimate few of these actions carry the same level of Ground Running” workshop organised a military response from the target”. threat perception as does a violent military by Finland, in 2017, Secretary-General There have been some Council discus- or terrorist attack. António Guterres told current and incom- sions of cyber threats at the subsidiary-body Cyber threats have been discussed in ing Council members that cyber warfare level. For example, the Counter-Terrorism many international forums, including had become a first-order threat to interna- Committee held a special meeting in late the First Committee of the UN’s General tional peace and security and that “[m]assive 2016 on preventing the exploitation of ICTs Assembly and in two General Assembly- cyberattacks could well become the first step for terrorist purposes. Sanctions evasion is mandated processes, the Open-Ended Work- in the next major war” (S/2018/404). He one Council entry point to this discussion. ing Group on Developments in the Field of highlighted the need for the Council to con- In February 2019, the Panel of Experts’ Information and Telecommunications in the ceptualise its role in anticipating, preventing report on the Democratic People’s Republic Context of International Security (OEWG) and, if necessary, responding to such threats of Korea (DPRK) noted that DPRK actors and the Group of Governmental Experts on to global security. have engaged in cyberattacks on financial Advancing Responsible State Behaviour in To date, the two discussions held by institutions and infrastructure. The coun- Cyberspace in the Context of International Council members on cyber threats have try also engaged in the illegal transfer of Security (GGE). According to its found- been open Arria-formula meetings. Spain crypto-currencies and money laundering. ing resolution (A/RES/73/27), adopted in and Senegal jointly convened an Arria-for- The panel has stressed that the DPRK’s December 2018, the OEWG strives to “fur- mula meeting, “Cybersecurity and Interna- use of cyberattacks provides an opportu- ther develop the rules, norms and principles tional Peace and Security”, in November nity for sanctions evasion involving mini- of responsible behaviour of States…and the 2016, and Ukraine did so in March 2017 mal resources while offering low-risk, high- ways for their implementation” regarding with “Hybrid Wars as a Threat to Interna- reward opportunities. According to some information and telecommunications in tional Peace and Security”, during which estimates, the DPRK has managed to gen- the context of international security. Unlike cyber threats were among those discussed. erate around $2 billion using cyberattacks, the OEWG, which is open to all member The November 2016 Arria-formula which represents a significant portion of the states, the GGE, with a similar mandate, is meeting discussed the challenges resulting DPRK’s revenue stream. The panel recom- composed of 25 member states. A series of from the use of information and communi- mended that the Council consider, when GGEs began in 2004, intended to help pro- cations technologies (ICTs) that can threat- drafting future sanctions measures, the sig- mote cooperation among states in address- en international peace and security. It was nificance of the DPRK’s use of cyber tech- ing security threats from information and pointed out that countering cyberattacks nology to evade sanctions. communications technology. can be particularly challenging because of, Technology has amplified the reach Several other intergovernmental, private among other factors, the speed at which of hate speech, which has been subject to sector, and civil society actors and processes these attacks can be carried out and the dif- Security Council sanctions since 2004 when contribute to proposed cyber norms, includ- ficulty of attributing their source and ulti- the 1572 Côte d’Ivoire Sanctions Commit- ing Microsoft’s Cybersecurity Tech Accord, mate responsibility. Council members were tee incorporated hate speech as a designa- the Paris Call for Trust and Security in encouraged to explore ways to assess vul- tion criterion. Hate speech was added to Cyberspace, and the Global Commission nerabilities and prevent cyberattacks while the South Sudan sanctions regime in 2016 on the Stability of Cyberspace. developing national strategies and policies, and to that of the Central African Repub- The Security Council has not yet held a including sharing best practices, committing lic (CAR) in 2018. The report of the Myan- formal, dedicated debate on the impact of to international cooperation, and forming mar Fact-Finding Mission—whose head, information and communication technolo- partnerships among governments, business- Marzuki Darusman, briefed the Council gies on the maintenance of international es, regional and sub-regional organisations, in October 2018—found that in Myanmar, peace and security, though it has considered and civil society. Facebook had been “a useful instrument for

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 In Hindsight: The Security Council and Cyber Threats those seeking to spread hate”. Peacekeeping cybersecurity—which it identified as one members, this factor may present initial actors have been threatened by disinforma- of its priorities during its campaign for the obstacles to discussion and challenges to tion or anti-UN campaigns on social media 2020-2021 term—the topic can be expect- normative advances. At the same time, the in the CAR, the Democratic Republic of ed to become a focus of more formal dis- declared priority of a member state may the Congo and elsewhere. This, along with cussion among Council members. Mem- open the door for the Council’s more seri- the military cyber capabilities of a range of bers bring different levels of familiarity in ous exploration of an issue which, as the armed actors, is likely to remain a challenge this field. In addition to some lack of trust Secretary-General has pointed out, presents to UN peace operations. among stakeholders and the sensitivity of a threat to international peace and security With Estonia’s interest in the issue among several of the permanent of the first order.

Status Update

Iraq statement at the press stake-out condemn- Lacroix briefed members after visiting Beni On 3 December 2019, the Council received ing the provocative actions by the DPRK earlier in the week. After the meeting, a US a briefing, followed by consultations, on while also emphasising that ballistic missile representative—as president of the Coun- Iraq (S/PV.8676). Special Representative launches represent a clear violation of Securi- cil—read out elements to the press. In the and head of the UN Assistance Mission for ty Council resolutions. On 11 December, the elements, Council members condemned the Iraq (UNAMI) Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert Council received a briefing on non-prolifera- attacks against civilians and Ebola respond- briefed the Council on the Secretary-Gen- tion related issues in the DPRK (S/PV.8682). ers. The members also expressed their full eral’s latest report on UNAMI (S/2019/903) Mohamed Khaled Khiari, Assistant Secre- support for MONUSCO’s efforts to pro- and the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third- tary-General for the Middle East, Asia and tect civilians. On 19 December 2019, the country nationals and missing Kuwaiti the Pacific, briefed the Council on the recent Council adopted resolution 2502, renew- property, including the national archives string of ballistic missile launches by the ing the mandate of MONUSCO until 20 (S/2019/865) and the most recent develop- DPRK and rising tensions on the Korean December 2020. ments in the country. Roberto Mardini, Per- peninsula. Council members expressed con- manent Observer of the International Com- cern and called for the continuation of the Arria-formula Meeting on “Protection mittee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to the UN, dialogue on denuclearisation. of the Environment during Armed and Monsignor Bashar Matti Warda, Arch- Conflict” bishop of Erbil, also briefed. On 13 Decem- Central Africa On 9 December 2019, an Arria-formula ber 2019, Council members issued a press On 6 December 2019, François Louncény meeting was convened on the “Protection of statement expressing grave concern at the Fall, Special Representative and head of the Environment during Armed Conflict”. It loss of life of those demonstrating and at the UN Regional Office for Central Africa was co-hosted by Council members Germa- the killing, maiming, and arbitrary arrests (UNOCA), briefed the Council (S/PV.8679) ny, Kuwait and Peru, and incoming member of unarmed demonstrators, and welcomed on the situation in Central Africa and the Estonia. Panelists included Assistant Sec- efforts for an inclusive dialogue between the latest Secretary-General’s report on the retary-General and head of the New York Government and people of Iraq (SC/14048). activities of UNOCA (S/2019/913). Sasha Office of the UN Environment Programme Lezhnev, Deputy Director of Policy at the (UNEP) Satya Tripathi and Willem Zwi- Somalia Enough Project, which supports peace and jnenburg, the Humanitarian Disarmament On 4 December 2019, the Council adopted an end to mass atrocities in Africa’s deadliest Leader at PAX. Tripathi maintained that UN resolution 2500, renewing the counter-pira- conflict zones, also briefed the Council. technical and scientific entities need to work cy measures off the coast of Somalia for 12 more closely with the UN’s peace and secu- months. Democratic Republic of the Congo rity architecture with respect to protecting (DRC) the environment in armed conflict. Zwijnen- Democratic People’s Republic of Korea On 6 December 2019, Council members burg called for the Security Council to build (DPRK) held a meeting in consultations under its knowledge and expertise on the issue On 4 December 2019, Council members “any other business” to discuss the situ- through formal briefings and open debates. discussed under “any other business” in ation in eastern DRC after an attack and Following statements by the panelists, Coun- consultations the latest missile launches by protests took place against a compound of cil members (except China) and incoming the DPRK, including the launch of two mis- the UN Organization Stabilization Mission member Estonia made interventions. siles on November 28. Following the meet- in the Democratic Republic of the Congo ing, the EU members of the Council, joined (MONUSCO) in Beni. Under-Secretary- by incoming member Estonia, made a joint General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our December Forecast

UN Criminal Tribunals terrorism in West Africa (S/PV.8685). Brief- Republic (CAR) Sanctions Committee and On 11 December 2019, the Security Coun- ings via VTC were given by Special Repre- the Working Group on Peacekeeping Oper- cil held its semi-annual debate (S/PV.8681) sentative and head of the UN Office for West ations; Ambassador Anatolio Ndong Mba on the International Residual Mechanism for Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) Mohamed (Equatorial Guinea) on the 1636 Lebanon Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). The IRMCT’s Ibn Chambas and AU Peace and Security Sanctions Committee and the 2048 Guinea- president, Judge Carmel Agius, and prose- Commissioner Smaïl Chergui. The concept Bissau Sanctions Committee; Ambassador cutor, Serge Brammertz, briefed on their note for the meeting, organised by Côte Mansour Al-Otaibi (Kuwait) on the 1533 respective assessment reports (S/2019/888). d’Ivoire and the US, noted that it was being Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) They also met with the Council’s Informal held to discuss the “shared drivers of inter- Sanctions Committee and the Informal Work- Working Group on International Tribunals communal violence and violent extremism”. ing Group on Documentation and Other Pro- prior to the debate, on 9 December 2019. cedural Questions; Deputy Permanent Rep- Afghanistan resentative Luis Ugarelli (Peru) on the 1373 Sudan (Darfur) On 16 December 2019, the Council held Counter-Terrorism Committee, the 1566 On 12 December 2019, Ambassador Joan- its quarterly meeting on Afghanistan (S/ Working Group on Counter-Terrorism, the na Wronecka (Poland), chair of the 1591 PV.8687). Tadamichi Yamamoto, the Spe- Informal Working Group on International Tri- Sudan Sanctions Committee, provided the cial Representative for Afghanistan and bunals, and the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Com- quarterly briefing to Council members on head of the UN Assistance Mission in mittee; and Ambassador Joanna Wronecka the Committee’s work (S/PV.8684). On 18 Afghanistan (UNAMA), briefed on the Sec- (Poland) on the 1518 Iraq Sanctions Com- December 2019, the Council received the retary-General’s latest report on UNAMA mittee, the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, semi-annual briefing of the ICC Prosecutor (S/2019/935) and the most recent develop- and the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Com- Fatou Bensouda related to the court’s work ments. Aisha Khurram, Afghanistan’s cur- mittee. The chairpersons shared their opin- on Darfur (S/PV.8691). rent Youth Representative to the UN, also ions on the status of their respective sanctions briefed. Also on 16 December 2019, the regimes, the role and efficacy of sanctions Golan Heights Council adopted resolution 2501, renew- in general, use of the Committees’ working On 12 December 2019, Under-Secretary- ing for 12 months the mandate of the Moni- methods, and issues to consider for the future. General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean- toring Team assisting the 1988 Afghanistan Pierre Lacroix briefed Council members in Sanctions Committee. Iran (non-proliferation) consultations on the Secretary-General’s On 19 December 2019, the Council held latest report on the UN Disengagement South Sudan its semi-annual briefing on the implemen- Observer Force (UNDOF) (S/2019/923) On 17 December 2019, the Council was tation of resolution 2231, which endorsed and the most recent developments. On 19 briefed on the Secretary-General’s 90-day the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action December 2019, the Council unanimously report on South Sudan (S/2019/936) by (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme (S/ adopted resolution 2503, renewing UND- Special Representative for South Sudan PV.8695). Under-Secretary-General for OF’s mandate until 30 June 2020. and head of the UN Mission in South Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rose- Sudan (UNMISS) David Shearer. Ambas- mary DiCarlo briefed on the latest Secre- Youth, Peace and Security sador Joanna Wronecka (Poland), chair of tary-General’s report (S/2019/934) and On 12 December 2019, the Council adopt- the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Commit- recent developments. Olof Skoog, Head of ed a presidential statement on the role Afri- tee, also briefed (S/PV.8689). Consultations the Delegation of the EU to the UN, briefed can youth can play in the prevention and followed the briefing. on the activities related to the work of the resolution of conflicts and as a key aspect of Joint Commission, which the EU chairs. He the sustainability, inclusiveness and success Subsidiary Bodies also presented key findings from the report of peacekeeping and peacebuilding efforts On 17 December 2019, the Council held of the Joint Commission to the Council on the continent (S/PRST/2019/15). its annual briefing by the outgoing chairs (S/2019/925). Ambassador Marc Pecsteen of the Security Council subsidiary bod- de Buytswerve (Belgium) briefed in his UNOWAS ies (S/PV.8688). The briefings came from capacity as the Council’s 2231 facilitator. On 16 December 2019, the Council held Ambassador Kacou Houadja Léon Adom a briefing on intercommunal violence and (Côte d’Ivoire) on the 2127 Central African

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 Syria

Expected Council Action would be an immediate end to aid support- discussing constitutional matters. The oppo- In January 2020, the Council expects to ing millions of civilians, leading to “a rapid sition maintained that these issues could be receive the monthly Syria briefings on the increase in hunger and disease resulting in addressed but not outside the context of the humanitarian situation, political develop- death, suffering and further displacement.” constitution. ments, and the use of chemical weapons. On 20 December 2019, the Security Coun- There are signs that the Syrian govern- The cross-border/cross-line aid delivery cil voted on two draft resolutions that would ment is distancing itself from the Constitu- mechanism, as mandated by resolution 2449 have renewed the authorisation for cross-bor- tional Committee. In a 31 October television of 13 December 2018, expires on 10 January der and cross-line humanitarian access. The interview, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad 2020. By 20 December 2019, it had yet to be first draft—which was produced by Belgium, said that while the pro-government group of renewed. It is not clear whether the Council Germany and Kuwait—received 13 affirma- the Constitutional Committee “represents the will be able to agree on a formula for renew- tive votes but was vetoed by China and Rus- viewpoint of the Syrian government…the Syri- ing the mandate prior to its expiration, given sia. It would have re-authorised use of three of an government is not part of these negotiations the difference of views regarding the number the four border crossings (Bab al-Salam and nor of these discussions”. Similarly, the Syrian of border crossings that should remain open Bab al-Hawa on the Turkey/Syria border and Arab News Agency, which is associated with and the duration of the mandate. Al Yarubiyah on the Iraq/Syria border) that had the government’s Ministry of Information, has been mandated by previous resolutions. The described the government side in the Constitu- Key Recent Developments draft would have re-authorised these crossings tional Committee as the “Syrian Government- On 10-11 December 2019, representatives of “for a period of six months, followed by an addi- backed delegation”, suggesting that the delega- the Astana guarantors—Iran, Russia and Tur- tional period of six months unless the Coun- tion in Geneva has the government’s support key—convened in Nur-Sultan (formerly Asta- cil decides otherwise”. While the draft would but does not represent it. na), Kazakhstan, for talks on developments not have re-authorised use of the al-Ramtha Special Envoy Geir O. Pedersen (via vid- in Idlib and the Constitutional Committee, crossing on the Syria/Jordan border, it would eo-teleconference) and Rajaa Altalli, the co- among other issues. Representatives of Iraq, have requested the Secretary-General to con- founder and co-director of the Centre for Civil Jordan, Lebanon, and the UN observed the duct within six months an independent written Society and Democracy in Syria, briefed the meeting. This was the 14th round of talks as review of UN humanitarian cross-border and Council on the political track in Syria on 20 part of the Astana process. The Astana guar- cross-line operations, including recommen- December 2019. Pedersen said that he saw antors issued a joint communiqué at the end dations on how to further strengthen the UN no reason to convene the third session of the of the meeting in which, inter alia, they reaf- Monitoring Mechanism and on the need to Constitutional Committee absent an agreed firmed their “strong commitment to the sov- re-authorise the use of the al-Ramtha crossing. agenda by the parties. Altalli appealed to the ereignty, independence, unity and territorial The second draft, produced by Russia, Council to support civil society in Syria and to integrity” of Syria; “expressed their opposition failed to be adopted due to an insufficient help with the release of detainees in the country. to the illegal seizure and transfer of oil reve- number of affirmative votes, as only five On 4 December 2019, High Representa- nues that should belong” to Syria; welcomed members (China, Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial tive for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamit- the “signing of the Memorandum of 22 Octo- Guinea, Russia, and South Africa) supported su briefed Council members in consultations ber 2019 [between Turkey and Russia] on it. (Absent a veto by a permanent member, a on the Syria chemical weapons track. She stabilization in north-east Syria”; expressed resolution on non-procedural matters requires reportedly said that gaps remain in Syria’s “readiness to support the work of the [con- nine or more affirmative votes to be adopted.) initial declaration to the Organisation for the stitutional] committee”; and highlighted “the The Russian draft called for a re-authorisation Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). need to facilitate safe and voluntary return of two of the four existing border crossings and of refugees and internally displaced persons a six-month mandate (instead of one year, as Human Rights-Related Developments (IDPs) to their original places of residence in had been the case in prior re-authorisations); On 6 December 2019, a spokesperson for the High Commissioner for Human Rights Syria, ensuring their right of return and right it would not have re-authorised use of the al- expressed concern in a statement that, despite to be supported”. The next round of talks in Yarubiyah and al-Ramtha border crossings. the fragile ceasefire in north-eastern Syria, the Astana format is planned for March 2020. The Constitutional Committee reconvened there was “a spike in what appears to be an Assistant Secretary-General for Humani- in Geneva on 25-29 November 2019 for its indiscriminate use of…IEDs (improvised explo- tarian Affairs Ursula Mueller briefed the second session; there was no progress, as the sive devices) in residential neighborhoods and local markets. These attacks have mainly been Council on 19 December on the humanitarian co-chairs from the government side and the carried out in areas under the control of Turk- situation in Syria. She emphasised the impor- opposition side were unable to agree on an ish forces and affiliated armed groups and, to a tance to the people of Syria of cross-border agenda for the meeting. The government side lesser extent, in areas under the control of Kurd- aid operations authorised by the Council, wanted to discuss “national constants” such ish armed groups in northern and north-eastern and stated that without this mechanism there as terrorism and sanctions relief prior to Syria and in areas within the ‘de-escalation zone’

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2254 (18 December 2015) was the first resolution focused exclusively on a political solution to the Syrian crisis. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2019/12 (8 October 2019) welcomed the Secretary-General’s announcement of the Constitutional Committee’s formation. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8696 (20 December 2019) was a meeting on the political situation in Syria. S/PV.8694 (19 December 2019) was a meeting on the humanitarian situation in Syria. Secretary General’s Report S/2019/949 (16 December 2019) was a report on the humanitarian situation in Syria. Other S/2019/962 (20 December 2019) was a Russian draft resolution on cross-border and cross-line humanitarian access to Syria that received five affirmative votes and failed to be adopted. S/2019/961 (20 December 2019) was a Belgium/ Germany/Kuwait draft resolution on cross-border and cross-line humanitarian access to Syria that was vetoed by China and Russia. S/2019/915 (29 November 2019) was the OPCW report on Syria covering the period 24 October to 23 November 2019.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Syria

in Idlib and parts of Aleppo”, the spokesperson Conundrum”, such as the “establishment of a the conflict. There is also concern that the said. He also expressed concern over the con- technical committee to launch a property res- government has been distancing itself from tinued military operations in the “de-escalation titution process;…amnesty for army deserters; the Constitutional Committee. Several mem- zone” of Idlib, including airstrikes and ground- based strikes by government forces and their [and] regular access to formal and informal bers have further emphasised the importance allies, resulting in civilian casualties. detention centres to qualified international of confidence-building measures to help sup- organisations”. port the political process, such as the release The Board of Inquiry (BOI) on Syria is of detainees and abductees. European mem- Key Issues and Options expected to finalise its work by late January. bers of the Council often underscore that Syr- Given the difficulties in agreeing on an agenda The BOI commenced its work on 30 Septem- ia should not receive reconstruction assistance for the second round of talks of the Constitu- ber 2019 and is responsible for investigating without a meaningful and inclusive political tional Committee, a key issue for the Council attacks on facilities in north-west Syria on a process. is underscoring the importance for the parties “deconfliction” list that included health facili- The difficult negotiations on the reau- to work together constructively in the Consti- ties whose coordinates had been provided thorisation of cross-border aid have high- tutional Committee and backing the facilita- to the parties to prevent their targeting. An lighted key differences among members on tion efforts of the Special Envoy. Members may option would be to ask the Secretariat to brief the humanitarian file. Most members under- want to emphasise the need for the parties to Council members on the BOI findings in a score the critical importance of this Council- engage earnestly and make the compromises closed format to allow for a frank dialogue authorised mechanism. China and Russia, necessary to get the negotiations back on track. and exchange of views. however, continue to express reservations. A related issue is the importance of creat- Another important issue for the Council China has maintained that coordination with ing an environment in Syria that is conducive is to support efforts to reach the millions of Syria on this mechanism could be strength- to advancing the political process. Members Syrians in need of humanitarian assistance. If ened and expressed concern that aid coming may emphasise the importance of confidence- agreement is not reached on a resolution to re- into the country could be diverted to terrorist building measures to accompany the work of authorise cross-border/cross-line humanitarian groups; at the 14 November 2019 Council the Constitutional Committee. For example, assistance by the end of 2019, efforts could be meeting on Syria, Under-Secretary-Gener- in January’s meetings, they could reiterate made to reach agreement on this matter prior al for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock the confidence-building potential of large- to the 10 January 2020 mandate expiration. said that the cross-border aid delivery sys- scale releases of detainees and abductees and tem “is one of the most closely scrutinized… information about missing persons. Council Council Dynamics in the world” and that “evidence of systemic members could also highlight other poten- Several Council members share concerns with aid diversion” had not been detected. Russia tial confidence-building measures, including regard to Syria: that any repatriation of refu- has asserted that the cross-border aid deliv- several of those outlined by the Internation- gees into Syria is voluntary and conducted in ery mechanism, as mandated by resolution al Crisis Group’s 25 November 2019 report, a safe and dignified manner; and that civilians 2449, does not respond to current realities “Ways Out of Europe’s Syria Reconstruction and civilian infrastructure are not targeted in on the ground.

Mali

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments a Malian army base in Mondoro in central In January, the Council expects to receive Terrorist groups have inflicted heavy casu- Mali killed at least 25 soldiers and left around a briefing on the Secretary-General’s quar- alties on the Malian armed forces in the 60 missing, according to the government. The terly report on the UN Multidimensional north and central regions of Mali over recent Islamic State claimed a 1 November 2019 Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali months while continuing to fuel intercommu- attack in north-eastern Mali in which 53 (MINUSMA) and the Secretary-General’s nal violence in the centre. Meanwhile, imple- Malian soldiers and one civilian were killed. bi-annual letter on the security situation, mentation of the 2015 Mali Peace and Rec- On 18 November 2019, 24 Malian soldiers MINUSMA’s performance, and transi- onciliation Agreement has remained limited. were killed and 29 wounded in another attack tion planning. Under-Secretary-General for On 30 September and 1 October 2019, in north-eastern Mali near the border with Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix is likely attacks claimed by the Group to Support Niger, in which 17 militants were also killed, to brief. Both the report and the letter are due Islam and Muslims (JNIM) against the base according to a Malian military spokesperson. in late December 2019. of a Malian battalion of the regional coun- On 25 November 2019, 13 French sol- The mandate of MINUSMA expires on terterrorism Joint Force of the Group of Five diers were killed when two French helicop- 30 June 2020. for the Sahel (FC-G5S) in Boulkessi and ters collided during a joint operation against

UN DOCUMENTS ON MALI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2480 (28 June 2019) renewed the mandate of MINUSMA until 30 June 2020. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8670 (20 November 2019) was a briefing on the G5 Sahel Joint Force.S/PV.8636 (8 October 2019) was a briefing on Mali.Security Council Press Statement SC/13981 (9 October 2019) urged the accelerated implementation of the Agreement on Peace and Reconciliation in Mali and expressed increased concerns about the deteriorating security situation in central Mali. Sanctions Committee Document SC/14018 (7 November 2019) was a press release on the 2374 Sanctions Committee mission to Mali.

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 Mali

armed elements in Mali in the Liptako-Gour- Sanctions-Related Developments to regional peace and security. In the same vein, ma area, the tri-border region with Burkina During the Council’s meeting on Mali on 8 Octo- she stressed that the gender unit in the FC-G5S Faso and Niger. It was the largest single-day ber 2019, Ambassador José Singer Weisinger must have the capability to defend women’s rights (Dominican Republic), chair of the 2374 Mali robustly. Diallo called upon the Council to hold loss for France since intervening in Mali Sanctions Committee, briefed on the committee’s both MINUSMA and the FC-G5S accountable for in 2013 and since establishing Operation activities during the previous nine months. From gender mainstreaming in their operations. In a 21 Barkhane—a 4,500-strong counter-terrorism 16 to 18 October, Singer Weisinger led a commit- November 2019 press statement on the FC-G5S, force that operates across the Sahel—in 2014. tee delegation to Bamako. According to a press Council members reiterated their call for the “full, The deteriorating security situation trig- release, the delegation met with a range of inter- effective and meaningful participation” of women locutors, including the High Representative for the in the implementation of the Agreement for Peace gered protests in October and November implementation of the Peace Agreement, facilita- and Reconciliation in Mali. 2019 in several cities, including the capital, tors of the national inclusive dialogue, individuals Bamako, with demonstrators criticising the listed on the 2374 sanctions list, representatives government, calling for more support for the of signatory and non-signatory armed groups, civil Key Issues and Options military, and demanding that foreign forces, society, MINUSMA and other international actors A key issue remains implementing the 2015 in Mali. While the delegation met with representa- particularly French and MINUSMA troops, tives from the Malian government, it was unable peace agreement, particularly in the five pri- leave the country. France will host a summit to meet with ministerial-level government officials. ority areas specified by the Council in reso- in early 2020 with G5 Sahel countries (Burki- On 27 November, the Sanctions Committee met lution 2480 when it renewed the mandate na Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger) to discuss the Chair’s visit. On 19 December, the of MINUSMA in June 2019: constitutional to assess Operation Barkhane and counter- Committee approved the application of an assets reform, decentralisation, security sector reform, freeze on the five individuals on whom the Com- terrorism strategies in the region. The sum- development of the north, and the full, effective mittee imposed a travel ban in July 2019. mit was called following the deaths of the 13 and meaningful participation of women. French soldiers, and postponed to January Human Rights-Related Developments Other key issues will be the security situa- following an Islamic State-claimed attack in The Independent Expert on the human rights situ- tion, MINUSMA’s performance, and transi- Niger on 10 December 2019 that killed 71 ation in Mali, Alioune Tine, visited the country from tion planning, all of which will be covered in Nigerien soldiers. 19 to 28 November 2019, following the killing on a Secretary-General’s letter that the Council 1 November 2019 of 53 soldiers and one civilian, Implementation of the 2015 peace agree- and attacks on the army bases in late September requested in resolution 2480 be submitted ment continues to be slow. The ongoing and early October 2019 in Boulkessi and Mon- every six months, in addition to his quarterly “inclusive national dialogue”, launched in doro. He will present a report to the Human Rights reports. Specifically, the Council requested September 2019 to reach consensual deci- Council during its 43rd regular session in March that this letter detail: sions on the major challenges facing Mali and 2020. In a 2 December 2019 statement, Tine said • information on security challenges in that he is “gravely concerned at the continuing on political reforms, has held up progress on deterioration of the overall security situation, Mali, progress in mission operations, troop issues such as the revision of the constitution which has now reached a critical threshold”. He performance and rotations, as well as an and legislation on decentralisation. An agree- also highlighted worsening levels of violence, rob- update on discussions in the Instance de ment was reached on 28 November 2019 by bery, rape and kidnapping in Timbuktu, and said a Coordination au Mali—which includes all the Technical Security Commission (created resurgence of transnational crime was threaten- the security presences—on the coordina- ing social cohesion and was going unpunished. “It by the peace agreement to deal with security is time to recognise the inadequacy of the cur- tion of security responsibilities; and measures) to deploy around 1,300 former rent security responses so Mali can move to more • the implementation of the UN integrated combatants of armed groups that have been appropriate alternatives as soon as possible”, he strategic framework developed in early trained and integrated into the Malian mili- said. 2018, including a transition plan with a tary to bases in the north. At press time, the view to hand over relevant tasks to the UN Women, Peace and Security Agreement Monitoring Committee still had During the 20 November 2019 meeting on the Country Team. not met since the cancellation of its planned FC-G5S, Council members received a briefing Connected to this is assessing the impact meeting in September. by Assitan Diallo, president of the Association of on MINUSMA of the Council’s adding a Following the Council’s decision in June African Women for Research and Development. second strategic priority for MINUSMA. 2019 to lift restrictions that had limited the She argued that “it is women and young people In resolution 2480, the Council mandated who pay the highest price when it comes to war” provision of life consumables support to joint and that “there can be no peace or development MINUSMA, within its existing resources, to force units operating in Mali, in October 2019 in Mali without gender equality”. Diallo said that support the government in addressing the MINUSMA received its first request from gender-based violence in Mali encompasses sex- deteriorating situation in central Mali while the G5 Sahel for such support for all FC-G5S ual slavery, gang rape, and early and forced mar- continuing to devote close attention to the contingents. During a 20 November Council riage. She charged that the legal requirement of north. In practice, these tasks were to be per- 30 percent female representation in institutions briefing on the FC-G5S, Assistant Secretary- and processes that are supporting the implemen- formed without any troops added and with General for Africa Bintou Keita reported that tation of the Agreement for Peace and Reconcili- fewer resources than those originally pro- MINUSMA had approved and begun fulfill- ation in Mali was “far from being respected”. Diallo posed by the Secretary-General to the Fifth ing the request for 429,000 litres of fuel and also noted that women were underrepresented Committee. The Council may want to focus oil and 35,000 rations, having applied the in the security and defence structures of the G-5 on how the expansion of tasks within existing Sahel, preventing the full contribution of women UN’s human rights due-diligence policy. resources has worked on the ground.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Mali

Sanctions are a key tool for the Coun- including on the government and signatory broadly is of growing concern for members, cil. The sanctions committee may consider and non-signatory groups. reflected by the upcoming summit France additional designations, while also engag- will host with G5 Sahel heads of state. ing in outreach activities to increase under- Council Dynamics Niger, which is being profoundly affected standing of the sanctions regime. A lack Members have been frustrated by the slow by the instability in neighbouring Mali and of understanding of the sanctions among implementation of the peace agreement, incurred what is reportedly the deadliest inci- Malian actors was one of the committee’s which is why in resolution 2480 the Council dent in its military’s history in the 10 Decem- observations during its visiting mission. In specified priority areas in which it expects ber attack, will replace Côte d’Ivoire on the a possible press statement, often issued fol- to see progress. The US is the most vocal Council in January 2020. Estonia, which is lowing Council meetings on Mali, members among members in underscoring that the also an incoming Council member, recently could recall their willingness to impose sanc- parties are not doing enough to implement approved an increase in the military person- tions on individuals and entities obstruct- the agreement. The deteriorating secu- nel it contributes to Operation Barkhane. ing the peace agreement’s implementation, rity situation in Mali and the region more France is the penholder on Mali.

West Africa and the Sahel

Expected Council Action 10 December, an attack claimed by the Islamic independent strategic review of UNOWAS In January, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, Special State on a base in Inates, western Niger, killed and the Secretary-General’s observations Representative and head of the UN Office for 71 soldiers—reportedly the deadliest incident and recommendations, which were aligned West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), will in the history of Niger’s military. with the report. Abdoulaye Bathily, the for- brief the Council to present the semi-annual Efforts continued to stand up the Joint mer head of the UN Office for Central Afri- UNOWAS report, which the Council should Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel (FC- ca, led the review, which was quite positive. receive by the end of December 2019. G5S, made up of units from Burkina Faso, The report observed that UNOWAS plays a Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger), but as dis- critical role in conflict prevention and sus- Key Recent Developments cussed during a 20 November 2019 Council taining peace and that it has carried out its The security situation in the Sahel has deterio- briefing, the force faces persistent challenges mandate effectively. The review highlighted rated as terrorist groups continue to destabi- that prevent it from becoming fully opera- the increased demands and expectations lise much of Mali and Burkina Faso, fuel inter- tional. Its inability to stem the violence in the facing UNOWAS, however. These include communal violence, and increasingly threaten region prompted the Economic Community more calls for its good offices in the context coastal West African states. The terrorist group of West African States (ECOWAS) to increase of political or electoral tensions. UNOWAS Boko Haram and a splinter group, the Islamic its engagement in addressing the terrorism has also been expected to provide support to State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), also threat. During a 14 September 2019 extraor- post-transition countries after the closure of remain a threat to north-east Nigeria and to dinary summit in Ouagadougou on terror- UN missions in Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia and other countries in the Lake Chad Basin. ism, ECOWAS member states committed to Sierra Leone and, looking ahead, is likely to Mali’s military has endured heavy casual- increased security cooperation and to mobil- play the same role in Guinea-Bissau after the ties in recent months while implementation ising $1 billion for counter-terrorism efforts possible conclusion of the UN mission there of a 2015 peace agreement stalled (for more in the 2020–2024 period. In the margins of at the end of 2020. It has also taken on a about Mali, see our brief in this month’s Fore- the Group of Seven (G7) summit in August, stepped-up role in The Gambia and Burkina cast). Violence in Burkina Faso has internal- France and Germany announced the launch Faso. The review also said that UNOWAS ly displaced at least 560,000 people by early of a new partnership for security and stabil- should give more attention to structural pre- December 2019 (compared with 87,000 peo- ity in the Sahel. The initiative calls for extend- vention amidst the deteriorating security situ- ple at the end of January 2019), according to ed military cooperation, enhanced efforts to ation and invest more in its rule of law and OCHA, and has created an “unprecedented strengthen governance, in particular rule of law good governance mandate. humanitarian emergency” in that country, with institutions, and economic development, and Among its recommendations, the review 1.5 million people requiring assistance. Among encompasses a broader focus on the ECOWAS said that UNOWAS should enhance collabo- recent developments, on 18 November, gun- region. On 15 December, leaders of G5 Sahel ration with ECOWAS and other sub-regional men killed at least 37 people in an attack on a countries met in Niamey, following the deadly organisations by, among other things, estab- convoy carrying employees of a Canadian min- attack in Inates, calling for closer cooperation lishing a liaison office with ECOWAS in Abuja. ing company. A 1 December attack by gunmen and international support in fighting terrorism. It flagged the need for UNOWAS to promote during a church service in Hantoukoura in On 19 November 2019, Security Coun- greater synergies between the UN system eastern Burkina Faso resulted in 14 deaths. On cil members received the report of an and entities in the region in the context of

UN DOCUMENTS ON WEST AFRICA AND THE SAHEL Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2019/7 (7 August 2019) was on West Africa and the Sahel. Security Council Letter S/2019/890 (15 November 2019) contained the report on the strategic review of UNOWAS. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8685 (16 December 2019) was a briefing on intercommunal violence and terrorism. S/PV.8670 (20 November 2019) was a meeting on the Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 West Africa and the Sahel the UN development system reforms. Meet- Illicit trafficking of drugs, intercom- the MNJTF. Further debate on the divisive ing these demands would require increased munal violence, and piracy are key issues, issue of authorising UN assessed contribu- human and financial resources for UNOWAS, which at times are linked with terrorist tions for the FC-G5S has been put off to see according to the report and the Secretary- groups. The FC-G5S, the Multination- whether the force can become effective with General’s observations. al Joint Task Force (MNJTF) in the Lake the current funding it has received. On 27 November 2019, Council members Chad Basin, and ECOWAS’ new commit- Consistent with the findings of the strate- held an informal interactive dialogue on the ments make up important security initia- gic review, members view UNOWAS as play- review with Bathily, Assistant Secretary-Gen- tives. Also important are efforts to address ing a significant conflict-prevention role and eral for Africa Bintou Keita, and Peacebuilding structural causes of instability, such as have valued Chambas’ good offices activities. Commission (PBC) Chair Guillermo Fernán- underdevelopment, poor governance and As part of such efforts, Chambas frequently dez de Soto Valderrama (Colombia). At press climate change, through initiatives such the seeks coordination with ECOWAS and the time, the Council was considering these rec- UN’s Sahel Strategy, the G5 Priority Invest- AU in UNOWAS’ messaging and actions. ommendations for the mandate renewal of ment Programme and the Lake Chad Basin Overall, most members appeared to support UNOWAS, set to expire on 31 December regional stabilisation strategy. Implementa- the review’s proposals. This includes the rec- 2019. It was expected that the Council would tion of the Mali Peace Agreement is also ommendation that UNOWAS enhance its renew the mandate for a three-year period considered critical for stabilising the Sahel. coordination with sub-regional organisations through an exchange of letters between its One option for the Council would be to and UN entities and country teams in the president and the Secretary-General. continue to organise periodic meetings on region. At the informal interactive dialogue, Chambas last briefed the Council (via transnational problems in West Africa and several members also expressed their sup- VTC) on 16 December 2019, along with the Sahel, the better to understand their port for increasing the mission’s resources. At AU Commissioner for Peace and Security root causes and linkages, for more informed press time, however, recommendations that Smaïl Chergui, during a meeting on inter- Council decisions on specific conflict situa- would significantly increase UNOWAS’ bud- communal violence and terrorism in West tions, as was the purpose of the 16 December get, such as establishing an ECOWAS liai- Africa and the Sahel. 2019 meeting on intercommunal violence. son office, appeared unlikely to receive sup- port from the US, which has been seeking to Key Issues and Options Council Dynamics reduce UN peace operations’ costs. The worsening security situation in the Members share concerns about the worsen- The West African Council member tradi- Sahel and the growing risk of spillover into ing security situation in the region, but it tionally serves as penholder on UNOWAS. non-Sahel countries are key issues, as are is not clear what immediate concrete mea- During 2019, Côte d’Ivoire and Belgium Chambas’ good offices activities around sures the Council can take. Most members served as co-penholders. Starting in Janu- election-related and political tensions. In do not consider UN peacekeeping to be ary, incoming member Niger will succeed 2020 alone, there are high-stakes presiden- appropriate for conducting counter-ter- Côte d’Ivoire. tial elections in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, rorism activities and thus seek to support Ghana, Guinea, Niger and Togo. regional forces such as the FC-G5S and

The UN Charter

Expected Council Action Background and sub-regional organisations, and mem- In January 2020, Council president Viet Nam Viet Nam is organising the open debate ber states can take to uphold the Charter. will convene a ministerial-level open debate on ahead of the 75th anniversary of the UN The concept note circulated by Viet Nam “Maintenance of international peace and secu- Charter in June 2020, as an opportunity ahead of the meeting notes that in the after- rity: upholding the UN Charter”. Viet Nam’s for member states to reaffirm their com- math of the Second World War, the UN Char- Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minis- mitment to upholding Charter principles, ter has helped the international community ter, Pham Binh Minh, is expected to chair particularly in the context of international make significant strides in achieving prog- the meeting, and Secretary-General António peace and security. Council members could ress towards international peace and security. Guterres is expected to brief. A presidential also reflect on possible actions that the The Charter affirms the primacy of conflict statement may be adopted during the meeting. Council, the UN system as a whole, regional prevention and the peaceful settlement of

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE PURPOSES AND PRINCIPLES OF THE UN CHARTER Security Council Letters S/2018/85 (1 February 2018) was the concept note for the 21 February 2018 ministerial briefing on the theme “Purposes and principles of the Charter of the UN in the maintenance of international peace and security”.S/2016/103 (1 February 2016) was the concept note for the 15 February 2016 ministerial-level open debate on the UN Charter. S/2015/87 (3 February 2015) was the concept note for the 23 February 2015 ministerial-level open debate on the UN Charter. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8185 (21 February 2018) was a ministerial-level briefing on the “purposes and principles of the UN Charter in the maintenance of international peace and security”. Secretary-General António Guterres and former Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon briefed the Council. S/PV.7621 (15 February 2016) was a ministerial-level open debate on the topic “Respect for the principles and purposes of the Charter of the United Nations as a key element for the maintenance of international peace and security”. S/PV.7389 (23 February 2015) was a ministerial-level open debate on the UN Charter, marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the UN and commemorating the end of World War II.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 9 The UN Charter

disputes. The concept note highlights that timely “action to prevent conflict and protect that in order to meet today’s international the Security Council—which has the primary human rights helps to strengthen sovereign- peace and security challenges, “the Security responsibility for the maintenance of inter- ty, rather than challenge or restrict it”, given Council should undergo reforms to be more national peace and security, according to the that human rights violations “kill and displace flexible in its decision-making process”, fur- Charter—has at times experienced difficul- people, divide communities, undermine econ- ther stating that “reform of the Security ties responding to crises swiftly and effectively. omies and destroy cultural heritage”. Council is long overdue”. To facilitate discussion about how the During its February 2016 presidency of Security Council can better respond to threats the Council, Venezuela organised a ministe- Council Dynamics to international peace and security through rial-level open debate focused on the topic Different political outlooks, including with collective action, the concept note invites “Respect for the principles and purposes of respect to the interpretation of the UN participants to discuss in the meeting how the Charter of the United Nations as a key Charter, are at the crux of the divide between member states in general, and the Council in element for the maintenance of internation- Council members. Article 2(7) of the UN particular, should employ the tools provided al peace and security”. Venezuela’s Foreign Charter, for example, contains the principle in the Charter to uphold international peace Minister, Delcy Rodríguez Gómez, pre- of non-intervention. It states that the UN is and security; to reflect on examples of suc- sided, while 64 member states participated, not to “intervene in matters which are essen- cessful interventions by the Council, as well as including Council members. In his briefing, tially within the domestic jurisdiction of any failures and lessons learned; and to consider Ban reiterated his emphasis on prevention state”. The principle is cited often by Coun- how to improve collaboration between various “through both early warning and early action”. cil members such as China and Russia in international actors to promote adherence to Kuwait initiated a ministerial-level brief- country-specific situations, such as Burundi, the Charter, among other issues. ing on the “purposes and principles of the Myanmar and Syria, as a rationale against There have been numerous Council meet- UN Charter in the maintenance of inter- more forceful Council action, which in their ings focused on the UN Charter in recent national peace and security” on 21 Febru- view undermines state sovereignty. On the years. On 23 February 2015, a ministerial- ary 2018. Both Guterres, who by then was other hand, Article 2(7) adds that “this prin- level open debate was convened at the initia- Secretary-General, and Ban, briefed. The ciple shall not prejudice the application of tive of China with the intention of reaffirming meeting was presided over by Kuwaiti Dep- enforcement measures under Chapter VII”. commitment to the purposes and principles uty Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign The exception to the principle of non-inter- of the Charter during the commemoration Affairs Sabah Al-Khalid Al-Sabah. Guterres vention is quoted by other Council members, of the 70th anniversary of the UN’s found- said that the tools provided in the Charter including France, the UK and the US, as a ing. The meeting was chaired by China’s for- must be used with greater determination basis for a more proactive approach by the eign minister, Wang Yi, and 79 member states and constantly updated. In this context, he Council. They maintain that state sovereign- participated, including those on the Council. emphasised the importance of conflict pre- ty should not be a shield against actions to Then-Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon under- vention, the adaptation of UN peacekeep- protect civilians from massive human rights scored the importance of sovereignty to the ing to current realities, and partnerships violations and are more inclined to push for international order but emphasised that sov- between the Security Council and regional coercive measures. ereignty comes with responsibilities and that and sub-regional organisations. Ban said

Yemen

Expected Council Action consultations. The Yemen Panel of Experts internationally recognised Yemeni govern- In January, the Council is expected to renew is due to submit its final report to the 2140 ment and the southern secessionists known the mandate of the UN Mission to support Sanctions Committee before providing it to as the Southern Transitional Council (STC). the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), which the Council by 28 January. The Special Envoy, meanwhile, continues to expires on 15 January 2020. The Council is push for implementation of the December also expected to receive its monthly brief- Key Recent Developments 2018 Stockholm Agreement between the gov- ing on Yemen with Special Envoy Mar- Yemen’s Houthi rebel group and Saudi ernment and the Houthis, including its main tin Griffiths. Under-Secretary-General for Arabia have continued the talks they started component, demilitarising the port city of Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock may in September 2019, which have contributed Hodeidah. The multiple processes seemed to brief on the humanitarian situation, and to a de-escalation in hostilities. Saudi Ara- indicate the greatest willingness among par- General Abhijit Guha, the head of UNMHA bia also remains closely involved in oversee- ties to restart negotiations on a comprehen- and chair of the Redeployment Coordina- ing implementation of the Riyadh Agree- sive political solution since the failed peace tion Committee (RCC), is likely to brief in ment signed in November 2019 between the talks in 2016 in Kuwait.

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2481 (15 July 2019) renewed the mandate of UNMHA until 15 January 2020. Secretary-General’s Letter S/2019/823 (14 October 2019) was a review of UNMHA. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8672 (22 November 2019) was a briefing on Yemen.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 Yemen

In a statement issued on 26 November to the RCC to discuss implementation of the largest in the world, with 24 million people 2019, the Saudi-led coalition, which backs Hodeidah agreement and improving humani- requiring assistance—remains severe. In its the Yemeni government against the Houthis, tarian access in Hodeidah governorate. monthly updates, OCHA usually briefs on a announced that it was releasing 200 Houthi number of key priorities to mitigate the situ- prisoners. That followed the Houthis’ release Key Issues and Options ation, which the Council has acknowledged of 290 detainees in October. The coalition also Restarting negotiations for a broader solu- in several products: the protection of civilians, said that in cooperation with the World Health tion to the conflict while at the same time humanitarian access, a fully funded aid oper- Organization, medical flights would be per- advancing the implementation of the Stock- ation, support for Yemen’s struggling econo- mitted out of Sana’a airport, which has been holm Agreement and the Riyadh Agreement my, and the need for a political solution. The closed to civilian air traffic since August 2016. are key issues. UN has reported an increasingly constrained On 28 November, 128 prisoners were released The Yemeni government has continued to operating environment for humanitarian by the coalition and returned to Sana’a. No appear hesitant about restarting peace talks actors in the Houthi-controlled north. Anoth- medical flights had taken place by press time. before the Stockholm Agreement’s imple- er issue of concern is Houthi authorities’ fail- The de-escalation in hostilities that has mentation. The one-year anniversary of the ure to permit access for a UN inspection mis- accompanied the Houthi-Saudi talks has agreement passed on 13 December 2019 sion of the SAFER oil tanker located in the appeared to hold, despite reports of fight- with only limited progress in implement- Red Sea near Hodeidah, which, because of ing and coalition airstrikes. Fighting around ing its three components: the agreement on its age and lack of maintenance since 2015, Hodeidah prompted a 25 November 2019 Hodeidah, a prisoner exchange, and a state- risks causing a major environmental disaster. statement by General Guha in which he said ment of understanding on Taiz. Regarding UNMHA, a review of the mis- he was “deeply concerned by the escalation” Regarding the Riyadh Agreement, almost sion submitted by the Secretary-General in and noted an “increase in the number of none of the deadlines for implementing pro- October 2019 found that its presence contin- airstrikes undertaken in the past 72 hours”. visions dealing with political and security ues to have a tangible calming and moderating Ten civilians were killed and 18 injured arrangements have been met at press time. effect and that UNMHA’s objectives remain in a shelling attack on Al-Raqw market in Restarting political talks will be contingent achievable and appropriate for the situation Monabbih District in Sa’ada governorate on the government and the STC agreeing on on the ground. The Council may renew the on 20 November, while on 27 November, a joint delegation as the Riyadh Agreement mandate for six months, as has been the an attack on the same market resulted in at specifies that the government delegation to practice since UNMHA’s establishment in least ten civilians killed and 22 injured, sev- future peace talks is to include the STC. January 2019. It could consider reducing the eral of whom were Ethiopians, according to An issue related to future peace talks is reporting cycle to every two months, rather OCHA, which did not attribute responsibil- how to make these more inclusive, involv- than the current monthly cycle. ity for the incidents. Still, the Houthis have ing not only the STC but other sectors of refrained from conducting cross-border Yemeni society, such as political parties and Council Dynamics attacks against Saudi Arabia since announc- geographical power structures not necessar- Recent months have seen the emergence of ing the cessation of attacks on Saudi terri- ily represented by the Houthis or the govern- consensus among Council members in want- tory on 20 September 2019. ment, as well as women and youth. Another ing the parties to restart a political process On 5 December 2019, clashes erupted question is around eventually consolidating concurrently with efforts to implement the between government and STC forces around these processes under a UN-led negotiations Stockholm Agreement. Even coalition mem- Zinjibar, the Abyan provincial capital. It was process. The Special Envoy was not direct- ber Kuwait changed its public position to the first instance of fighting since the two ly involved in the Saudi-led mediation that support moving forward simultaneously with sides signed the Riyadh Agreement. produced the Riyadh Agreement nor cur- both processes and has offered to host future As discussed during consultations on rent efforts to implement the deal, nor is he negotiations, whereas it previously under- Yemen on 12 December 2019, the parties to directly involved in the Saudi-Houthi talks. scored the need to implement the Stockholm the Riyadh Agreement have not met initial The Council may continue to monitor accord before returning to talks. Tunisia deadlines for security arrangements and for implementation of the agreements and their replaces Kuwait as of 1 January as the Arab forming a new, “technocrat”, government. components closely, with the option of react- member of the Council. Griffiths apparently noted during the consul- ing with statements to progress or setbacks. The UK is the penholder on Yemen. tations that that this was not a surprise, since The Council could consider undertaking a Ambassador Inga Rhonda King of Saint Vin- the deadlines had been highly ambitious. visiting mission to the region to encourage cent and the Grenadines is succeeding Peru as Lowcock and Guha also briefed. On 18 and peace talks and an inclusive process for a chair of the Yemen 2140 Sanctions Committee. 19 December, Guha chaired a meeting with comprehensive political settlement. the government and Houthi representatives The humanitarian crisis—currently the

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Colombia

Expected Council Action The government faced further crisis when Numerous demonstrations in different In January 2020, the Council will receive on 5 November a report from an investiga- parts of the country, including a national a briefing from Special Representative and tion into an August operation by the Colom- teachers’ strike in September, have con- head of the UN Verification Mission in bian military was presented in the Senate by demned the killings. The November disclo- Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent Senator Roy Barreras, revealing that eight sure of the eight minors, and possibly other developments and the Secretary-General’s of the 15 people killed in the bombing were civilians, killed by the military on 29 August 90-day report on the mission, which at press minors aged between 12 and 17 years. The sparked another wave of mass demonstration, time was due on 26 December 2019. As was operation, a military offensive against an starting on 21 November 2019 when there the practice in 2018 and 2019, the Council alleged rebel base in the Caquetá province, was also a national strike. is likely to issue a press statement following came hours after two former leaders of the In addition to decrying the continuing the 90-day briefing. FARC-EP, Luciano Marín (known as Iván targeted killings, the protesters also demon- The mandate of the verification mission Márquez), one of the chief negotiators of the strated against the government’s failure to expires on 25 September 2020. agreement, and Seuxis Pausías Hernández improve the economic situation of large sec- (known as Jesús Santrich), released a video tors of Colombian society, especially in rural Key Recent Developments in which they announced a “new phase of areas, as well as the return to a phenomenon The overall political situation in Colom- armed struggle” in Colombia. The govern- characteristic of the civil war period known bia has remained complex. On 27 October ment declared that the military operation as “the false positives”, whereby civilians 2019, the country held its first local and had been carefully planned and properly killed in military operations were presented municipal elections since the signing of conducted and had resulted in the elimina- as combatants in official reports. In several the 2016 Final Agreement for Ending the tion of one of the dissident FARC-EP lead- demonstrations, the full implementation by Conflict and Building a Stable and Lasting ers. The November revelations that several the government of the peace agreement was Peace between the government of Colom- of those killed were children who, with vari- among the participants’ demands. bia and the rebel group Fuerzas Armadas ous others, were likely to be civilians, led the The Council last discussed Colombia on Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Senate to plan a motion to censure Defence 10 October 2019, when it received a brief- Pueblo (FARC-EP). Electoral campaigns Minister Guillermo Botero. Botero resigned ing from Ruiz Massieu and held consulta- in Colombia have for decades been marked the next day, and on 12 November 2019 tions on the topic. On 15 October, Council by violence, and the 2019 campaign also Duque appointed his then Foreign Minister, members issued a press statement reiterat- saw cases of election-related killings, kid- Carlos Holmes Trujillo, to the post, appoint- ing their unanimous support for the peace nappings and threats. On election day, five ing as foreign minister Claudia Blum, a poli- process in Colombia while deploring the people were killed in election-related inci- tician and diplomat who served as Colom- announcement by a group of former fight- dents, compared to 28 killed on the day of bia’s Permanent Representative to the UN ers that they would return to armed activity. the last local elections prior to the signing in New York in 2006–2010. The statement expressed concerns about the of the agreement, held in 2015. High levels of violence have continued, killings of community and social leaders as Centro Democratico (CD), the party of especially in areas from which FARC-EP well as candidates running in the 27 Octo- Colombian President Ivan Duque, suffered had withdrawn, with targeted assassina- ber local and departmental elections. In the setbacks in the October 2019 elections, espe- tions of indigenous and social leaders and statement, members reaffirmed their com- cially in the big cities. Its candidates lost the human rights defenders. The Cauca depart- mitment to working closely with Colombia mayoral elections in Medellin, a CD strong- ment, which Council members visited in in achieving progress in the implementation hold, and in the capital city of Bogotá, whose July 2019, has had particularly high num- of the peace agreement. mayor has traditionally been considered the bers of killings recently. Nineteen people second most powerful politician in the coun- were killed in Cauca over the four-day peri- Human Rights-Related Developments try after the president. od from 30 August to 2 September 2019. On 30 October 2019, a spokesperson for the High Commissioner for Human Rights said in a Candidates associated with FARC-EP On 29 October 2019, five people from the statement that OHCHR had signed a Host Coun- running either for the Fuerza Alternativa Nasa indigenous community were shot try Agreement with Colombia to remain and oper- Revolucionaria del Común (FARC), the dead and six others were severely injured ate in the country with its full mandate–including political party founded by the FARC-EP by gunfire in the Tacueyó reservation in technical cooperation and human rights moni- after the laying-down of weapons, or for Cauca. Between 1 January and 1 November toring and reporting–for a further three years. On the occasion of Human Rights Day on 10 other opposition parties, won in a handful of 2019, according to the Office of the United December 2019, a spokesman for OHCHR said races, gaining seven seats in different munic- Nations High Commissioner for Human that the office had documented killings of at least ipal councils, one in a provincial assembly, Rights (OHCHR) in Colombia, 52 persons, 86 social leaders and human rights defenders in one in an administrative local assembly, and including 11 human rights defenders, were Colombia in 2019. three mayoral posts. killed in the Nasa territory in Cauca.

UN DOCUMENTS ON COLOMBIA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2487 (12 September 2019) renewed the mandate of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia until 25 September 2020. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/780 (1 October 2019) was the latest report on the work of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia.Security Council Visiting Mission Report S/2019/827 (18 October 2019) was the report from the 11-14 July 2019 visiting mission to Colombia. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8639 (10 October 2019) was a briefing by Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu. Security Council Press Statement SC/13988 (15 October 2019) was the Council’s most recent press statement on Colombia.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 Colombia

Key Issues and Options agreement stipulated an initial three-year about the violence, to encourage full imple- With the mission’s mandate focused on veri- duration for the mission, “renewable if neces- mentation of the agreement, and to hear the fying aspects of the agreement related to the sary”. That initial three-year period will come views of local actors regarding the possible political, economic and social reincorpora- to an end in September 2020. The resolutions next phase of Council involvement. tion of the FARC-EP, personal and collec- renewing the mandate of the mission have tive security guarantees, and comprehensive left it unchanged. Resolution 2487 adopted Council Dynamics programmes of security and protection mea- in September 2019 expressed the Council’s Council members are united in their overall sures for communities and organisations in willingness to work with the government of support for the peace process. While they have conflict-affected areas, Council members Colombia to extend the mission beyond 2020, generally been deferential towards the gov- will want to hear how the recent political and should the parties desire. It is likely, however, ernment, some differences in tone emerged social turmoil may have affected the imple- that the parties may suggest some chang- in 2019. Several members have been critical mentation of the agreement. es with the expiry of the current mandate, of the government on issues such as the con- The need to implement the peace agree- and the Council may wish to begin holding tinuing security vacuum in areas from which ment fully—as opposed to focusing on only Colombia–focussed discussions to consider FARC-EP withdrew under the agreement select aspects—continues to be an issue, ways in which the mandate could be modi- and an uneven approach to implementing dif- acknowledged by the Council in a series of fied to fit the evolving situation on the ground. ferent aspects of the agreement. Other mem- recent statements that stressed the interlocking Given the important role of the inter- bers objected to singling out human rights nature of the different elements of the accord. national element of the verification process defenders as a separate category among vic- The UN verification mission, which start- provided by the UN, which is recognised by tims of targeted assassinations. ed its operations in September 2017, was the parties and by Colombians at large, the The UK is the penholder on Colombia. established in accordance with the 2016 Council might consider a visiting mission to agreement in which the parties requested Colombia in the first half of 2020 to signal the UN to set up a political mission. The its ongoing support as well as its concerns

Libya

Expected Council Action professional security forces, and the GNA the Libyan ambassador and arguing that In January, the Council is expected to receive currently relies on armed groups for its secu- the agreement violates international law by briefings by the Special Representative and rity. On 12 December 2019, Haftar, using infringing on Greek sovereignty. The Libyan head of the UN Support Mission in Libya sharp rhetoric, announced a “broad and total House of Representatives, based in Tobruk (UNSMIL), Ghassan Salamé, and the chair assault” on Tripoli. At press time, there are no and allied with the GNA, contested the valid- of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, confirmed reports of Haftar’s forces having ity of the agreement. Greece sent a letter to Ambassador Jürgen Schulz, the Deputy Per- made advances into the city. the Council on 9 December 2019, asking the manent Representative of Germany. On 27 November 2019, the internation- Council to condemn the agreement. The mandate of UNSMIL expires on 15 ally recognised and UN-backed GNA and The Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 September 2020, and the mandate of the Pan- Turkey signed two agreements, one on coop- Libya Sanctions Committee issued its final el of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanc- eration on military and security matters and report on 29 November 2019. It named Jor- tions Committee expires on 15 February 2020. one on maritime boundary delimitation. The dan, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates as military cooperation agreement, which was supplying weapons to the conflict parties in Key Recent Developments approved by the Turkish parliament’s foreign Libya, “routinely and sometimes blatantly” in Libya’s capital, Tripoli, has been the scene affairs commission on 16 December 2019, violation of the arms embargo. Armed groups of fighting for over eight months, starting on enables the GNA to request Turkish troops, from Chad and Sudan are also involved in 4 April 2019 when General Khalifa Haftar, among other things, which would significant- the fighting for different sides of the conflict; head of the eastern-based militia known as ly step up the military support Turkey has however, the panel assessed their influence on the Libyan National Army (LNA), launched been providing to the GNA. The maritime the outcomes of the fighting as limited. an offensive towards Tripoli and against the agreement, which affects drilling rights, has The panel called the arms embargo “inef- Libyan Government of National Accord further complicated the relationship between fective”, citing Jordan and the United Arab (GNA) based there. Libya does not have Turkey and Greece, with the latter expelling Emirates as major arms suppliers for forces

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2491 (3 October 2019) renewed the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisa- tions, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking.S/RES/2486 (12 September 2019) extended UNSMIL’s mandate until 15 September 2020. S/RES/2473 (10 June 2019) renewed the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya bound to or from the country that they have reasonable grounds to believe are violating the arms embargo. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8667 (18 November 2019) was the latest meeting on UNSMIL and Libya sanctions. Sanctions Committee Document S/2019/914 (29 November 2019) was the latest final report of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Libya

allied with Haftar, and Turkey for forces allied Oil Corporation”, that exists in parallel to mandate of the Panel of Experts until 15 Febru- with the GNA. This support was acknowl- the National Oil Corporation of the GNA, ary 2020 with 13 votes in favour and two absten- edged by members of the GNA, including continues to try to export crude oil, which tions (China and Russia). The abstentions were prompted by a provision in what is now resolu- President Fayez al-Sarraj. In one instance, is illicit according to resolution 2441. The tion 2441 that contains a stand-alone designation vehicles from Turkey were received on behalf panel registered four such attempts by the criterion for sanctioning individuals for acts that of Salah Badi’s Al Samoud brigade, which is “National Oil Corporation” during the “include but are not limited to planning, directing affiliated with the GNA. The Council desig- reporting period, with the latter stating its or committing acts involving sexual and gender- nated Salah Badi as subject to sanctions in goal of becoming a legitimate institution that based violence”. In its 9 December 2019 report, the panel identified “individuals that had more November 2018. The panel further noted that controls all of Libya’s oil. The report further than likely been subjected to abuse and sexual a Haftar-affiliated battalion received training indicates that the eastern “Central Bank” of and gender-based violence”. However, “the nec- in Jordan, also in non-compliance with Coun- Libya continues to contract companies to essary evidential levels for reporting to the Com- cil sanctions. The use of unmanned combat print money. mittee could not be met”. The panel elaborated aerial vehicles (drones) has “escalated”, with In August 2019, Salamé proposed three that they were, among other things, unable to access confidential locations where interviews Haftar’s forces having more advanced equip- steps for an end to the conflict: a humani- with victims might be conducted or to obtain the ment at the time of publication of the report. tarian truce during Eid al-Adha, including expert opinion of independent trauma and psy- The panel described the increased inter- confidence-building measures between the chological counsellors. ference of foreign elements, which includes parties; a high-level conference of “concerned During the 18 November 2019 briefing, Coun- armed groups from Chad and Sudan, as a countries”; and a “Libyan meeting of leading cil members were also briefed by Rida Ahmed Al Tubuly, director and co-founder of Together We “direct threat to the security and stability of and influential personalities from all over the Build It, an organisation advocating for women’s Libya”, since this foreign presence “may lead country”. In support of Salamé’s second step, roles in a formal peace process. She called on to further instability” in the war-torn coun- five meetings were held in Berlin, the latest on the international community as well as UNSMIL to try. The Sudanese Justice and Equality Move- 10 December, convened by Germany and co- “redesign the negotiating table” by redistributing ment is reportedly supporting forces allied led with UNSMIL. power and making it gender-sensitive and inclu- sive. According to Al Tubuly, this change can be with the GNA, while other Sudanese armed On 18 November 2019, Salamé briefed achieved if the Council sets an example by imple- groups are supporting forces allied with the Council on the latest developments in menting the Women, Peace and Security agenda. Haftar. The Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Libya. On 2 December, Council members Support Forces (RSF) are reported to sup- issued a press statement on that meeting. port Haftar’s forces as well. The panel con- On 6 November 2019, ICC Prosecutor Key Issues and Options cluded that Sudan and the RSF’s General Fatou Bensouda delivered her semi-annual Council members are following closely the Mohamed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo are in briefing on recent developments concerning progress made by Salamé in his proposed non-compliance with Council sanctions. In cases in Libya. three steps. In case of significant progress at addition, different Chadian armed groups At press time, the UN’s 2019 humanitar- the political level, the Council may consider support Haftar’s and GNA forces. Accord- ian response plan for Libya of $201.6 mil- endorsing any advances. ing to Libyan and US officials, mercenaries of lion was funded at close to 50 percent, with An ongoing issue is the military escala- the private but reportedly Kremlin-affiliated $101.3 million outstanding. tion, which threatens to deepen long-stand- Russian military company Wagner Group are ing political and economic divisions between also involved on the ground in Libya in sup- Sanctions-Related Developments different parts of Libya, contributing to the port of Haftar. During the 18 November 2019 meeting on Libya, overall instability of the country. Individual Schulz was unable to brief the Council in his posi- The panel further concluded that neither Council members could use their influence tion as chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Commit- side has the military capacity to win the con- tee because the committee could not reach con- to put pressure on the parties and countries flict, with the frontlines remaining unchanged sensus on his statement, specifically with regard to adhere to the arms embargo. In the lon- since April. According to the report, the to a proposed reference to the case of German- ger term, a Council visiting mission to Libya external support to both sides continues to Tunisian national Moncef Kartas, one of the pan- or a full-fledged visit by the Libya Sanctions el’s arms experts, who was arrested and detained enforce the proxy character of the conflict in Committee that covers the whole country on espionage charges by Tunisian authorities on post-2011 Libya. 26 March 2019. According to the UN Spokesper- could be considered. Individuals listed for targeted sanctions son, this was “in violation of the privileges and continue to operate in Libya, including Abd immunities that have been granted to Mr. Kartas”. Council and Wider Dynamics al-Rahman al-Milad, who is reportedly work- On 21 May 2019, a Tunisian appeals court decided Libya remains a divisive issue within the to release Kartas, and he was able to return to ing with GNA-affiliated fighters. Mohamed Council. Council resolutions and presidential Germany. The case against him is still open. Kashlaf, head of the Shuhada al Nasr brigade On 25 November 2019, the Panel of Experts statements routinely call upon UN member who is sanctioned for his leading role in the assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee states to cease support for parallel institu- smuggling of migrants, continues to be paid briefed the committee on its final report. tions in Libya, but some countries, including by the GNA and is in charge of securing the permanent members of the Council, fail to Zawiyah oil complex, Libya’s largest refinery. Women, Peace and Security respect these calls and continue to support The self-styled eastern-based “National On 5 November 2018, the Council extended the Haftar militarily. As stated in the final report

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 Libya by the Panel of Experts, militias affiliated to make Libya one of its priority issues. Permanent Representative, chairs the 1970 with the GNA also receive military support The UK is the penholder on Libya, shar- Libya Sanctions Committee. from abroad. Tunisia, which joins the Council ing the pen with Germany on the sanctions in January for its 2020-2021 term, is expected file. Ambassador Schulz, Germany’s Deputy

Cyprus

Expected Council Action on the Cypriot leaders to build on previous The Republic of Cyprus has also sought legal In January 2020, the Council is expected to convergences and renew their commitment recourse on this matter and in December filed renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping to settle the Cyprus issue. an application against Turkey before the Inter- Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) ahead of its The Secretary-General’s good offices report national Court of Justice (ICJ). Turkey does 31 January expiry. Special Representative and did not contain any substantial information not recognise the court’s jurisdiction. head of mission Elizabeth Spehar is expected on the political process beyond what has been to brief on the latest UNFICYP report and reported in the media. The Secretary-Gener- Key Issues and Options recent developments. A representative from al has been explicit in this and his previous At the moment, the Council is primarily con- the Department of Political and Peacebuild- reports that before starting negotiations, the cerned with the lack of substantial progress ing Affairs may also brief. leaders should first agree on the terms of ref- in the unification talks and remote prospects erence, which would represent a starting point for advancing the political settlement of the Key Recent Developments for a negotiated solution. During the reporting Cyprus problem. In addressing this, the The Council is approaching another UNFIC- period, Jane Holl Lute, who was appointed by Council could consider taking a more proac- YP mandate renewal in January, which will the Secretary-General to conduct preliminary tive approach to revitalising the process. One take place against the backdrop of a lack of consultations, has continued her interactions option would be to explore changing the any meaningful developments on the political with the Cypriot parties on finalising the terms mandate of UNFICYP, including options for front. While the Greek and Turkish Cypriot of reference. The Secretary-General, however, downsizing and a possible exit strategy. leaders maintained limited engagement with did not provide any details about the contents Developments related to the broader each other in 2019, the unification talks of Lute’s discussions with the parties. political process have traditionally played a remain at an impasse since the collapse of The Republic of Cyprus and Turkey crucial role in guiding the negotiations on the latest round of negotiations in July 2017. remain locked in a dispute over the explora- the mandate renewal. For over a year, Lute In an effort to invigorate the political process, tion of hydrocarbon resources off the coast has been consulting with the parties on the Secretary-General António Guterres hosted an of Cyprus. Over the past few months, Turkey way forward in that process. So far, Council informal meeting with Greek Cypriot leader has deployed several of its vessels in the area members have received few, if any, substantial Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot lead- to start hydrocarbon exploration and drilling details about Lute’s engagement with the par- er Mustafa Akinçi in Berlin on 25 November activities. The Republic of Cyprus claims that ties. Ahead of the mandate renewal in January, 2019. In a statement issued after the meeting, Turkey’s activities within its exclusive econom- the Council could consider holding a private Guterres said that the Cypriot leaders agreed ic zone constitute a breach of international law. meeting with Lute on the prospects for prog- that the current status quo is not sustainable Turkey says its exploration activities are in the ress on the political track. and they both stressed the importance of area of its continental shelf and are therefore Tensions over hydrocarbon resources off reaching a solution to the Cyprus issue within legitimate. Turkey has also maintained that it the coast of Cyprus are of growing concern a foreseeable timeframe. Guterres also noted will protect the rights of Turkish Cypriots and for the Council. As was the case in the past, that he would be willing to explore the pos- that they are entitled to receive benefits from these tensions can affect the political process sibility of organising an informal meeting with the hydrocarbon resources. negatively and carry potential risks for the Cypriot parties and the three guarantor powers The EU has repeatedly condemned Tur- security situation in the region. (Greece, Turkey and the UK). key’s exploration and drilling activities, calling Four days before the Berlin meeting, them illegitimate. The EU Council has agreed Council Dynamics Council members discussed in consultations to sanction those involved in illegal activities off Notwithstanding the impasse in unifica- the latest Secretary-General’s report on his the coast of Cyprus. In early December 2019, tion talks, Council members are consistent good offices in Cyprus. Following the meet- the EU foreign ministers agreed on a legal in their support for a negotiated solution to ing, they agreed on press elements in which framework for the sanctions, paving the way the Cyprus issue and the Secretary-General’s they welcomed the Secretary-General’s ini- for targeting specific individuals and entities efforts to that end. Given that this issue has tiative to host a meeting in Berlin and called which, at press time, have not been designated. been on the Council’s agenda for decades,

UN DOCUMENTS ON CYPRUS Security Council Resolution S/RES/2483 (25 July 2019) extended the mandate of UNFICYP for another six months. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/883 (14 November 2019) was on the Secretary-General’s good offices in Cyprus. Security Council Press Statement SC/13980 (9 October 2019) reiterated the importance of the status of the city of Varosha as set out in previous Security Council resolutions.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Cyprus some members appear to be frustrated by and that the Council should reconsider the way, maintaining that the process must be the seemingly indefinite nature of this pro- mandates of missions where progress on the Cypriot-led and Cypriot-owned to achieve cess. Members seem to diverge on the con- political track is absent. During past man- lasting results. Most Council members seem ditions and timeframe for the reunification date renewal negotiations, the US has sup- wary of initiating drastic changes to the mis- talks. Some seem to share the view that this ported a comprehensive strategic review of sion’s mandate and size. In the absence of process cannot be open-ended and that the the mission and timed benchmarks for an progress in unification talks, the US posi- Council could apply pressure on the parties exit strategy tied to the political process. tion might gain more support from other to revive the negotiations. On the other hand, Russia has strongly members who have been cautious on this The US has emphasised that peacekeep- opposed any attempt to exert pressure on issue. Russia is likely to oppose any changes ing missions must support political processes either side and affect negotiations in any to the status quo.

Middle East (Israel/Palestine)

Expected Council Action he would annex the occupied Jordan Valley in Further complicating matters, Netanyahu was In January, the Security Council is expected the West Bank. indicted on 21 November 2019 on charges of to hold its quarterly open debate on the Mid- However, despite holding two elections fraud, bribery and breach of trust. It is unclear dle East, focusing on Israel/Palestine. Special in less than six months (most recently on 17 if Netanyahu is legally able to run for the post Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Pro- September 2019), Israel still does not have of prime minister under these circumstances, cess Nickolay Mladenov is likely to brief. a government. Since the first 2019 election, although Israeli law allows a prime minister held in April, Netanyahu’s Likud party has to remain in office even if indicted. There has Key Recent Developments been engaged in a tight bid for power with the been pressure on Attorney-General Avichai The last period has been marked by much Blue and White Alliance, led by Benny Gantz, Mandelblit to issue a ruling on whether an political uncertainty concerning Israel/Pales- a former Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense indicted candidate can compete, which had tine issues. On 18 November 2019, US Sec- Forces (IDF) and a former Netanyahu ally. not been made at press time. retary of State Mike Pompeo reversed the US In December 2018, Gantz established a new Preparations have begun for the Palestin- position on Israeli settlements. “After care- political party, Israel Resilience, which, along ian Authority to hold its first parliamentary fully studying all sides of the legal debate...the with the Blue and White Alliance in which it and presidential elections in 14 years. Parlia- establishment of Israeli civilian settlements plays a leading role, is considered a more cen- mentary elections could happen as early as in the West Bank is not, per se, inconsistent trist option to the right-wing Likud. He has February 2020, with presidential elections to with international law”, he told a press con- heavily criticised Netanyahu’s role in three follow three months later. During the open- ference. The Secretary-General’s spokesper- separate corruption cases and on 19 Septem- ing of the UN General Assembly in Septem- son Stéphane Dujarric stated the next day in ber seemingly ruled out any possibility that ber 2019, Palestinian Authority President response to press inquiries that the UN “very Blue and White would serve in a coalition with Mahmoud Abbas announced general plans much regrets” this announcement and that the Netanyahu, though the alliance has left open for elections. However, several challenges UN’s position has not changed. Additionally, the possibility of a secular unity government remain, particularly the need for logistical the ten elected Council members appeared at with Likud but without Netanyahu. There plans and ongoing discussions about how to a press stakeout after the Council’s meeting have also been reports that Netanyahu and hold elections in Gaza given the split between on 20 November 2019 responding to the issue. Gantz might alternate the post of prime min- Hamas in Gaza and Fatah in Ramallah. Jürgen Schulz, Deputy Permanent Represen- ister as a compromise. Since attempts by both The Council discussed the situation in tative of Germany, reiterated the elected mem- groups to form a coalition failed, however, the the Middle East, including the Palestinian bers’ support for international law regarding country’s politics have been at a standstill. On question, during its regular monthly meet- the illegality of the settlements. He also repeat- 11 December 2019, President Reuven Rivlin ings in November and December 2019, along ed their collective concern about the possible announced that, as a result of the inability of with the quarterly open debate in October annexation of areas in the West Bank. This the leaders to form a coalition, a historic third 2019. Mladenov briefed at all three ses- comes on the heels of several announcements election was necessary. It will most likely be sions. He repeatedly warned the Council in in 2019 by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin held on 2 March 2020. these meetings that there were “new danger- Netanyahu that he would annex all Israeli set- Until the next elections are held and a new ous flashpoints” emerging on this file, as he tlements located in Palestinian territories if he government is formed, the country will contin- said during the October open debate. He won the election and a specific promise that ue to be led by Netanyahu in a caretaker role. also underlined the continued humanitarian

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE MIDDLE EAST (ISRAEL/PALESTINE) Security Council Resolution S/RES/2334 (23 December 2016) condemned Israeli settlements and called for the Secretary-General to brief the Council quarterly on implementation of the resolution. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/938 (12 December 2019) was the most recent written report on the implementation of resolution 2334. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8690 (18 December 2019) included the 12th report on the implementation of resolution 2334. S/PV.8669 (20 November 2019) was the monthly briefing by Nickolay Mladenov, Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process.. S/PV.8648 (28 October 2019) was the most recent quarterly open debate on the Palestinian question.

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 Middle East (Israel/Palestine)

challenges in Gaza and the ongoing settle- occupied since 1967, Michael Lynk, applauded the blockade against Gaza, concerns about ment issues. His concerns about increasing the 12 November 2019 ruling by the European the Gaza humanitarian situation, the impor- tensions were underscored by 48 hours of Court of Justice, which held that food products tance of progress on the intra-Palestinian produced by Israeli settlements in the occupied what he described during the November Palestinian territory must indicate that they origi- reconciliation process, and the viability of meeting as “the most serious recent escala- nate from a settlement and not be described as a the two-state solution in the current political tion between Israel and Palestinian militants “product of Israel”. In a 19 November 2019 state- and security context. in Gaza”. During that period, Islamic Jihad ment, Lynk said the US announcement that Israeli launched around 450 rockets at Israel, while settlements do not violate international law “is a Council and Wider Dynamics decisive break with international consensus, and Israeli strikes against Islamic Jihad targets will only further entrench the perpetual Israeli There are deep divisions between the US and killed a senior leader of Palestinian Islamic occupation”. He added that the decision was “the other members of the Council on the Israel/ Jihad, Baha Abu al-Ata, and more than 30 very last nail in the coffin of the two-state solution” Palestine issues. Several Council members other Palestinians, including three women and that it “effectively grants permission to the have criticised US actions, such as moving its and eight children. Israeli government to formally annex large parts embassy to Jerusalem and tacitly supporting of the occupied West Bank, as it has already done On 18 December 2019, the Council with East Jerusalem”. Netanyahu’s statements about annexation received its quarterly briefing on the imple- of the Jordan Valley. More broadly, with the mentation of resolution 2334 of December Key Issues and Options upcoming elections in Israel, Palestine and 2016, which condemned Israeli settlements. The Council remains stalled on the Israel/Pal- the US, some members may want to await Mladenov presented the Secretary-General’s estine issues because of its internal divisions. their outcomes before making policy deci- written report, only the third since resolution Apart from the scheduled monthly meetings, sions. The lack of international consensus 2334 was adopted. The report showed that Council members could choose to hold an even on previously agreed parameters only no steps had been taken to cease settlement Arria-formula meeting or an informal inter- heightens the complexity. activity. In the report, the Secretary-Gen- active dialogue to highlight specific issues fac- Indonesia, Kuwait and South Africa have eral stressed his concern, noting the overall ing the region. This was done in May 2019 emerged as a strong, like-minded group increase in approved settlements, incidents when an Arria-formula meeting was held to push for increased discussion and out- of settler violence, the worrying humani- on Israel’s construction of settlements. Viet comes on this issue, focusing especially on tarian situation in Gaza, and the need for Nam, as president of the Council for January, promoting the rights and needs of Palestin- Egyptian-led intra-Palestinian reconciliation could also invite a civil society representative ians. With Kuwait leaving the Council and efforts to continue. to brief during the open debate, as was done its seat being taken by Tunisia, this dynamic twice in 2019, in April and November. may change. (The seat reserved for Arab Human Rights-Related Developments The same chief issues are likely to con- countries alternates between the Asian and In a 15 November 2019 statement, the special rap- tinue to be discussed by Council members: African geographic groups.) porteur on human rights in the Palestinian territory

UNRCCA (Central Asia)

Expected Council Action Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). It is head- (the regular UN budget) is around $3 mil- In January 2020, the Special Representa- quartered in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, with lion, and it has a staff of 31 (22 national, tive and head of the UN Regional Centre office locations in all Central Asian states, nine international). It is established practice for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia and its mandate includes a liaison function, that the Special Representative reports orally (UNRCCA), Natalia Gherman, is expect- monitoring and analysis of the situation to the Council twice a year. ed to brief the Council in consultations on on the ground, maintaining contact with UNRCCA’s activities. regional organisations, offering a political Key Recent Developments framework for conflict prevention activi- Gherman last briefed Council members in Background ties of the entire UN system in the region, consultations on 2 July 2019. She updat- UNRCCA is a special political mission, and additionally maintaining contact with ed members on the activities of UNRCCA established by the Secretary-General in the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan regarding priority matters such as trans- 2007 for an open-ended period based (UNAMA) to ensure a comprehensive over- boundary water management, countering on a proposal by the five Central Asian view of the regional situation. Its proposed terrorism, the roles of women and youth, states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, budget for 2020 from assessed contributions and energy.

UN DOCUMENTS ON UNRCCA Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2018/2 (19 January 2018) was on Afghanistan and Central Asia. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8162 (19 January 2018) was an open debate entitled “Building regional partnership in Afghanistan and Central Asia as a model to link security and development”. Security Council Press Statement SC/13179 (25 January 2018) reaffirmed the importance of preventive diplomacy and acknowledged UNRCCA’s role in that regard. It also expressed support for UNRCCA’s role in regional counter-terrorism activities, welcomed its engagement related to border management, and commended efforts related to trans-boundary water management and combatting drug trafficking.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 17 UNRCCA (Central Asia)

In line with its mandate, UNRCCA organ- have a potentially less formal, more detailed its 2017-2018 term on the Council. In Feb- ised several workshops and training sessions and frank exchange with Gherman in consulta- ruary 2017, Council members agreed on over the last six months. These included a tions. Another option would be for the Council press elements that welcomed the Special training session on “Good Practices in Bor- to hold a debate and give the five Central Asian Representative’s briefing, reaffirmed the der Security and Management to Strength- governments the opportunity to speak. importance of conflict prevention tools, en National and International Capacities in acknowledged the role of UNRCCA, and Countering Terrorism” on 6-8 August 2019 Council Dynamics encouraged greater cooperation between the in Dushanbe, Tajikistan; on countering the Council members are generally supportive states in the region, UNRCCA, and relevant financing of terrorism on 27 August 2019 in of the work of UNRCCA. Until early 2015, regional organisations. Under the Kazakh Samarkand, Uzbekistan; and on “Countering they issued a press statement following each Council presidency in January 2018, Council the Use of the Internet for Propaganda and briefing, encouraging increased cooperation members found consensus on a press state- Recruitment Purposes in Central Asia” on and coordination among the Central Asian ment, again referring to “relevant regional 13-14 November 2019 in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. countries, UNRCCA, and “relevant regional organisations” without naming them. It On 30 September 2019, the Centre organisations”. In September 2015, Russia, appears that this was acceptable to Russia in launched the “UNRCCA Preventive Diplo- the penholder on UNRCCA, sought to add light of its close relationship with Kazakhstan macy Academy”, aimed at implementing specific references to the Commonwealth and with the addition of the phrase “includ- the Youth, Peace and Security agenda of the of Independent States (CIS), the Collec- ing those organizations of which the Central Security Council. The initiative organised tive Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Asian States are members”. In the statement, three workshops for young people from Cen- and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Council members reaffirmed the impor- tral Asian countries and Afghanistan this year. (SCO), as well as the Organization for Secu- tance of preventive diplomacy and acknowl- rity and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) edged UNRCCA’s role in that regard. They Issues and Options and the EU. The P3 (France, the UK and further expressed support for UNRCCA’s One issue for the Council is what more it can the US) opposed these additions, seeing the role in regional counter-terrorism activities, do to support UNRCCA’s work. An option CIS, the CSTO and the SCO as vehicles for welcomed its engagement related to border would be to hear Gherman’s briefing in an enhancing Russian influence in the region. management, and commended efforts relat- open meeting, followed by consultations. This No press statements could be agreed on for ed to trans-boundary water management and would allow Council members to publicly more than two years. combatting drug trafficking. Since January express support for the work of UNRCCA As a Central Asian state, Kazakhstan 2018, no press statements have been issued and to raise awareness of its activities and then sought to overcome these differences during on UNRCCA.

Cooperation between the UN and Regional Organisations

Expected Council Action local disputes. Chapter VIII of the Charter opportunities for a productive division of In January, Council president Viet Nam is encourages the resolution of such disputes by work between the Council and regional expected to convene a briefing on the coop- regional organisations as long as their efforts organisations. The AU has perhaps the most eration between the UN and regional organ- are consistent with the principles and pur- established relationship with the Security isations in maintaining international peace poses of the UN. Council, with peacekeeping a principal area and security, with a focus on the relation- Briefings on the relationships with different of their institutional cooperation. In Europe, ship with the Association of Southeast Asian organisations have become a regular feature of regional organisations such as the EU and the Nations (ASEAN). Viet Nam also assumes the Council’s programme of work in the post- OSCE play key roles in conflict and post-con- the chairmanship of ASEAN at the outset Cold War era. Council members have held flict environments. For example, the OSCE of 2020. The Secretary-General of ASEAN annual joint consultative meetings with mem- closely monitors such issues as the situa- may brief the Council. bers of the African Union Peace and Security tions in Ukraine and Georgia, thus serving Council (AU PSC) since 2007, and the Coun- as an important source of information for the Background cil has convened annual briefings on the work Council about developments in these areas. The UN Charter established the Securi- of the Organisation for Security and Coop- One notable example of cooperation ty Council as the principal organ charged eration in Europe (OSCE) and on UN-EU between the Security Council and ASEAN with the maintenance of international peace cooperation since 2001 and 2010, respectively. took place during a border dispute between and security while also envisioning a role In the course of the last decade, there Thailand and Cambodia in the vicinity of the for regional organisations in the context of has been a growing recognition of the Preah Vihear temple complex in 2011. On 14

UN DOCUMENTS ON COOPERATION BETWEEN THE UN AND REGIONAL ORGANISATIONS Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2019/5 (13 June 2019) encouraged the holding of an annual briefing by the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States (LAS). Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/592 (17 August 2018) was the biennial report on cooperation between the UN and regional and other organisations. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6480 (14 February 2011) was a private meeting on the Thailand-Cambodia border situation. Security Council Press Statement SC/10174 (14 February 2011) was about the Cambodia-Thailand border situation.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 Cooperation between the UN and Regional Organisations

February 2011, following exchanges of fire Key Recent Developments On 13 June 2019, Kuwait convened a across the Thailand-Cambodia border, the In 2019, the Council continued to engage high-level briefing on cooperation with the Council held a private meeting on the bor- regularly with regional and sub-regional League of Arab States (LAS). In a presiden- der situation at the request of Cambodia. At organisations on peace and security issues. tial statement adopted following the meeting, the meeting, the then-chairman of ASEAN, Cooperation with the AU on peace and secu- the Council encouraged the practice of hold- the foreign minister of Indonesia, briefed the rity in Africa featured prominently on the ing of an annual briefing by the Secretary- Council, and representatives of Cambodia Council’s agenda in the past year. The Coun- General of the LAS as well as of convening and Thailand made statements. In a press cil held two open debates focused on the an annual informal meeting between Security statement issued after the meeting, Coun- AU’s “Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020” Council members and the members of the cil members welcomed ASEAN’s mediation initiative, on 27 February and 2 October Council of the LAS. efforts and encouraged the parties to cooper- 2019. At the February debate, the Council On 25 September 2019, Russia organised ate with the organisation. (For more on this, unanimously adopted resolution 2457, which a ministerial-level meeting on the work of the see What’s In Blue from 9 February 2011.) highlights the Council’s support for African- Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Tensions around the Preah Vihear temple led initiatives to end conflict on the continent. Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and complex abated following an Internation- The October debate focused on the connec- the Commonwealth of Independent States, al Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling in Novem- tion between youth empowerment and peace- with a focus on their role in counter-terror- ber 2011 ordering both sides to withdraw building efforts in Africa. ism efforts. In his briefing to the Council, the their troops from the temple’s surroundings. Apart from the periodic Council briefings Secretary-General mentioned that the UN Observers from ASEAN were deployed to on UN-AU and UN-EU partnerships, sev- is strengthening its institutional links with monitor the ceasefire agreement. It appears eral meetings were held in the past year on the three organisations. However, P3 repre- that in this case, rather than taking the lead, cooperation between the Council and other sentatives and several EU members of the members of the Council saw their role as sup- regional organisations, demonstrating the Council expressed doubts about enhancing porting regional efforts. desire of some Council members for these the cooperation between the Council and relationships to develop along similar lines as these organisations. those with the AU and EU.

Central African Republic

Expected Council Action government and armed groups in the CAR are the protection of civilians, good offices In January 2020, the Council is expected to since the current crisis began in 2013, and and support to the peace process, support renew the 2127 Central African Republic it remains to be seen whether it will be fully to preparations for peaceful elections, facili- (CAR) sanctions regime, which expires at the implemented. Confrontations between rebel tating the safe and unhindered delivery of end of the month. groups, CAR security forces and MINUS- humanitarian aid, and the promotion and The mandate of the UN Multidimen- CA have subsided, and human rights viola- protection of human rights. Resolution sional Integrated Stabilization Mission in tions linked to the conflict appear to have 2499 contains new language on electoral the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) decreased, yet many civilians live with gener- support, authorising MINUSCA to assist expires on 15 November 2020. al insecurity. Armed groups have been fight- the CAR in the preparation and delivery of ing each other and violating the agreement peaceful presidential, legislative and local Key Recent Developments through violence against civilians, illegal tax- elections by providing good offices, security, The Political Peace Agreement in the CAR ation, and obstructing the wider expansion and operational, logistical and, as appropri- was signed in Bangui by the CAR govern- of state authority and deployment of secu- ate, technical support, in particular to facili- ment and 14 armed groups on 6 February rity forces. MINUSCA continues to be the tate access to remote areas, as well as coor- 2019, following negotiations in Khartoum primary provider of security in the country. dinating international electoral assistance. that began on 24 January 2019 under the On 15 November 2019, the Council On sanctions, resolution 2488 of 12 Sep- auspices of the AU. A new cabinet, in which adopted resolution 2499, renewing the tember 2019 amended the arms embargo all 14 armed groups are represented, was mandate of MINUSCA until 15 November imposed on the CAR in previous resolutions. formed on 22 March 2019. 2020 and maintaining the existing levels of Most elements of the arms embargo remain This is the latest of several peace agree- 11,650 military personnel and 2,080 police in place, including those on the CAR secu- ments that have been signed between the personnel. The priority tasks of the mission rity forces. However, the resolution exempts,

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE CAR Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2499 (15 November 2019) extended the mandate of MINUSCA and the authorisation to use all means to provide operational support to MINUSCA until 15 November 2020. S/RES/2488 (12 September 2019) amended the CAR sanctions regime for CAR security forces. S/RES/2454 (31 January 2019) renewed the CAR sanctions regime and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the CAR Sanctions Committee. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2019/3 (9 April 2019) established benchmarks for suspending or progressively lifting arms embargo measures on the government of the CAR. Secretary-General’s Report S/2019/822 (15 October 2019) was on MINUSCA. Security Council Letter S/2019/145 (14 February 2019) was the Secretary-General’s letter containing the Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation in the CAR..

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Central African Republic Security Council Report Staff Karin Landgren Executive Director after notifying the committee, supplies of sanctions against spoilers might provide an Joanna Weschler non-lethal military equipment intended incentive for armed groups to truly com- Deputy Executive Director solely for humanitarian or protective use and mit to the process. Furthermore, sanctions Shamala Kandiah Thompson supplies to the CAR security forces of weap- against those responsible for attacks against Deputy Executive Director ons with a calibre of 14.5mm or less that are civilians, MINUSCA, and humanitarian Paul Romita Senior Policy Analyst intended solely for the support of or use in workers might also help to curb violence. the CAR process of security sector reform. Targeting actors who enable the economic Teale Harold Policy Analyst Under the previous sanctions regime, these activities of armed groups and the flow of Lindiwe Knutson supplies to the CAR security forces required arms might further pressure them to adhere Policy Analyst prior approval from the committee. The to the agreement. Vladimir Sesar resolution also requested that the Secretary- Policy Analyst General update the Security Council by 31 Council and Wider Dynamics Eran Sthoeger December 2019 on the progress achieved by There was wide consensus among Coun- Policy Analyst the CAR authorities on the key benchmarks cil members on the need to accommodate Vanessa Tiede established in its presidential statement of 9 some of the CAR government’s concerns Policy Analyst

April 2019, such as progress on the effective about the arms embargo, which resulted in Benjamin Villanti implementation of the National Program for the amendment of the regime in resolution Policy Analyst Disarmament, Demobilization, Reintegra- 2488. Against the backdrop of the continued Robbin VanNewkirk tion and Repatriation, and development of requests of the government, Council mem- Website Manager weapons stockpile management capabilities. bers may diverge, however, on the possibility Audrey Waysse After the adoption of the resolution, the for further easing of the regime in January. Operations Manager CAR representative called it a “step in the Several Council members, including the Maritza Lopez Administrative Assistant right direction” towards the lifting of the African members, are of the view that the Alina Entelis arms embargo in its entirety. He said that sanctions regime continues to promote secu- Research Assistant the government is at a disadvantage com- rity in the CAR and can also serve as pressure Anna Haven pared to armed groups in terms of weaponry. in the implementation of the peace agree- Research Assistant The outgoing chair of the 2127 CAR ment. They believe there is no room for fur- Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Kacou ther adjustments at this point in light of the Security Council Report is a non- profit organisation supported by the Houadja Léon Adom (Côte d’Ivoire), vis- political and security situations and the CAR Governments of Australia, Austria, ited the CAR from 1 to 4 October 2019. government’s unreadiness to manage heavier Belgium, Canada, Côte d’Ivoire, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, During the visit, he saw first-hand the gaps weapons. On the other hand, China and Rus- Iceland, Indonesia, Ireland, Kuwait, in the CAR’s capacity to manage properly sia, both of which voted in favour of resolu- Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, its weapons stockpiles. The recent report of tion 2488, took the position that the Coun- Republic of Korea, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, the Panel of Experts assisting the committee, cil should go farther in amending the arms Switzerland, Turkey and United Arab presented to the committee on 2 December embargo. China said the embargo should be Emirates, and Carnegie Corporation.

2019, confirmed that the influx of weapons lifted altogether while Russia expressed its Design Point Five, NY from neighbouring states to armed groups intention to press for significant adjustments in the country continues. During the meet- of the sanctions regime in January 2020. It Security Council Report 711 Third Avenue, Suite 1501 ing, the panel also provided the committee is unclear at this point, however, if they will New York NY 10017 several “statement of cases” for adding indi- push for such changes in the upcoming nego- Telephone +1 212 759 6394 viduals to the sanctions list. tiations in light of the situation on the ground. Fax +1 212 759 4038 Another element that could factor into Web securitycouncilreport.org whatsinblue.org Key Issues and Options negotiations over the sanctions resolution is The immediate task for the Council in Janu- the report of the Secretary-General on meet- Follow @SCRtweets on Twitter ary is renewing the arms embargo, travel ban ing the benchmarks enumerated by the Coun- and assets freeze imposed on the CAR. The cil in the presidential statement of 9 April 2019. Council may choose to further amend the France is the penholder on the CAR. arms embargo. It may also call on all states to implement fully the embargo to stop the flow of illegal weapons into the CAR. Monitoring the implementation of the peace agreement and preparations for the elections remains a priority as violence con- tinues and rebel groups show half-hearted commitment. A credible threat of targeted

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020