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Monthly Forecast January 2020 Monthly Forecast 1 Overview Overview 1 In Hindsight: The Security Council and Cyber Threats Viet Nam has the presidency of the Council in Jan- The other regular Middle East meetings are: 3 Status Update uary. It has chosen to hold a ministerial-level open • Syria, the regular briefings on the political debate on “Maintenance of international peace and humanitarian situation and on chemical 5 Syria and security: upholding the UN Charter”. Viet weapons; 6 Mali Nam’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Min- • Israel/Palestine, the quarterly open debate. 8 West Africa and the ister, Pham Binh Minh, is expected to chair the Meetings on situations in South America and Sahel meeting, and Secretary-General António Guterres Europe are also expected in January. The Coun- 9 The UN Charter is expected to brief. Viet Nam will also convene cil will hold a briefing followed by consultations 10 Yemen a briefing on cooperation withregional and sub- on Colombia on the Secretary-General’s 90-day 12 Colombia regional organisations, with a focus on ASEAN. report on the UN Verification Mission in Colom- The Council is expected to receive updates on bia. On Cyprus, Council members will be briefed 13 Libya the activities of two UN regional offices. There in consultations on recent developments and the 15 Cyprus will be a briefing on the UN Office in West Africa latest report on the UN Peacekeeping Force in 16 Middle East (Israel/ and the Sahel (UNOWAS) and a briefing in con- Cyprus (UNFICYP), and the Council is expected Palestine) sultations on the UN Regional Centre for Pre- to renew the mandate of UNFICYP by the end 17 UNRCCA (Central Asia) ventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). of the month. 18 Cooperation between On African issues, there will be updates on the At press time, the Council had been unable to the UN and Regional activities of the UN missions in Libya (UNSMIL) re-authorise the cross-border humanitarian aid Organisations and Mali (MINUSMA). An adoption is sched- mechanism in Syria. If agreement is not reached 19 Central African uled at the end of the month to renew the Central by the end of 2019, members are likely to con- Republic African Republic sanctions regime and the man- tinue to negotiate a new mandate prior to the date of its Panel of Experts. expiration of the current one on 10 January. Regarding Yemen, the Council is expected Council members will most likely follow to renew the mandate of the UN Mission to closely developments in the Democratic Peo- support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) ple’s Republic of Korea, South Sudan, and the before mid-January. It will also receive the Democratic Republic of the Congo, although monthly briefing followed by consultations, on no meetings on these issues were scheduled at implementation of resolutions 2451 and 2452. press time. In Hindsight: The Security Council and Cyber Threats The world’s first electronic computer, ENIAC applications, but a far-reaching dark side. (Electronic Numerical Integrator and Comput- Technology has been used to misinform and er), was completed in 1945, the year the United deceive populations in ways that subvert national Nations was created. ENIAC’s applications were unity and coherence, whip up polarising and dead- military: it was financed by the US Army. Nearly ly hatreds, and disrupt public infrastructure. Facial 23 December 2019 75 years later, technology has vast reach and desta- recognition technology offers behavioural—and This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. bilising potential: a recent United Nations Univer- political—microtargeting and with it the potential sity report says that the combination of artificial to intimidate and control populations, potentially For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please intelligence (AI) and other powerful dual-use tech- infringing on human rights including freedom subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” nologies places the world at “a time of technologi- of expression and peaceful assembly. By weap- series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. cal rupture with implications for large-scale crisis onising societal disruption, cyber technology has prevention”. There are innumerable life-improving brought a new elasticity to concepts of threats to Security Council Report Monthly Forecast January 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: The Security Council and Cyber Threats international peace and security. the issue in informal meetings and as part The 2017 Arria-formula meeting on Military cyber applications are evolv- of a broader discussion. In August 2019, a hybrid wars covered a broad range of hostile ing rapidly. Many technologies are broadly concept note for a ministerial-level debate interventions. According to the concept note accessible not only to states but also to cyber- on challenges to peace and security in the for the meeting, these included “advanced mercenaries and terrorists. Their capacity for Middle East, organised by Poland, suggest- weapons systems, cyber-attacks, interference concealment and anonymity can make attri- ed that members consider “[h]ow to coun- with political processes, quasi-military activi- bution of responsibility for violations of inter- teract cyber threats, including threats to ties, systematic dissemination of propaganda national law—and therefore accountability— energy infrastructure, in terms of promoting domestically and internationally, secret intel- extremely difficult. cooperative mechanisms for deterring and ligence operations and abuse and manipula- The range of potentially aggressive responding to significant cyber incidents in tion of available international instruments… actions coming under the cyber rubric is the Middle East” (S/2019/643), and several used to achiev[e] political objectives”. Hybrid vast, yet apart from autonomous weapons participants addressed this in their interven- warfare, the note went on to say, “involves systems and robotics, and the threat of a tions (S/PV.8600). actions designed to fall below military cyberattack on nuclear weapons systems, Speaking at the annual “Hitting the response thresholds to deny or de-legitimate few of these actions carry the same level of Ground Running” workshop organised a military response from the target”. threat perception as does a violent military by Finland, in 2017, Secretary-General There have been some Council discus- or terrorist attack. António Guterres told current and incom- sions of cyber threats at the subsidiary-body Cyber threats have been discussed in ing Council members that cyber warfare level. For example, the Counter-Terrorism many international forums, including had become a first-order threat to interna- Committee held a special meeting in late the First Committee of the UN’s General tional peace and security and that “[m]assive 2016 on preventing the exploitation of ICTs Assembly and in two General Assembly- cyberattacks could well become the first step for terrorist purposes. Sanctions evasion is mandated processes, the Open-Ended Work- in the next major war” (S/2018/404). He one Council entry point to this discussion. ing Group on Developments in the Field of highlighted the need for the Council to con- In February 2019, the Panel of Experts’ Information and Telecommunications in the ceptualise its role in anticipating, preventing report on the Democratic People’s Republic Context of International Security (OEWG) and, if necessary, responding to such threats of Korea (DPRK) noted that DPRK actors and the Group of Governmental Experts on to global security. have engaged in cyberattacks on financial Advancing Responsible State Behaviour in To date, the two discussions held by institutions and infrastructure. The coun- Cyberspace in the Context of International Council members on cyber threats have try also engaged in the illegal transfer of Security (GGE). According to its found- been open Arria-formula meetings. Spain crypto-currencies and money laundering. ing resolution (A/RES/73/27), adopted in and Senegal jointly convened an Arria-for- The panel has stressed that the DPRK’s December 2018, the OEWG strives to “fur- mula meeting, “Cybersecurity and Interna- use of cyberattacks provides an opportu- ther develop the rules, norms and principles tional Peace and Security”, in November nity for sanctions evasion involving mini- of responsible behaviour of States…and the 2016, and Ukraine did so in March 2017 mal resources while offering low-risk, high- ways for their implementation” regarding with “Hybrid Wars as a Threat to Interna- reward opportunities. According to some information and telecommunications in tional Peace and Security”, during which estimates, the DPRK has managed to gen- the context of international security. Unlike cyber threats were among those discussed. erate around $2 billion using cyberattacks, the OEWG, which is open to all member The November 2016 Arria-formula which represents a significant portion of the states, the GGE, with a similar mandate, is meeting discussed the challenges resulting DPRK’s revenue stream. The panel recom- composed of 25 member states. A series of from the use of information and communi- mended that the Council consider, when GGEs began in 2004, intended to help pro- cations technologies (ICTs) that can threat- drafting future sanctions measures, the sig- mote cooperation among states in address- en international peace and security. It was nificance of the DPRK’s use of cyber tech- ing security threats from information and pointed out that countering
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