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Valuation of Grieg Seafood ASA

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Valuation of Grieg Seafood ASA Valuation of Grieg Seafood ASA Authors: Fabian Løke & Sondre Teige Supervisor: Edward Vali Master thesis, Copenhagen Business School, 15th of May 2018 Student nr: 106077 & 107534 Word count: 35,009 Characters: 219,870 Pages: 118 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (BUY) Key data 19.04.2018 Price (NOK) 86.00 Improved capacity utilization in 2018 Target price (NOK) 104,59 Grieg Seafood is equipping for organic growth with Upside 20% investments in surveillance technology and smolt facilities. These investments are essential to increase harvest volume NOK (000) and reduce costs. Investment in surveillance and monitoring Ticker OSE GSF Shares outstanding 111.662 technology seems to yield results as sea-lice levels decreases Market cap 9.602.932 in earlier troubled regions. One of the expected contributors NIBD 1.790.101 to the future EBIDTA margin is Grieg Seafood’s Credit rating BBB 500 improvement in operational efficiency. Share performance 400 Supply and demand 300 In the short term-supply is expected to grow as both smolt 200 release and standing biomasses are higher y-o-y. Increased 100 supply can expect to be met by a growing demand as health 0 trends and increased demand from European consumers are expected to strengthen demand. GSF OSEBX OBSFX Salmon price In the short-term we see salmon prices to remain above Target price estimates NOK 60 per kg. The company’s high exposure to the spot Danske Bank 110 market will be beneficial for the company as its sensitivity to Pareto 100 the spot price remain high. We see the salmon price to Nordea 100 stabilize close to NOK 60 per kg as supply and demand DNB 90 stabilizes. Carnegie 85 Mean 97 Median 100 Financials 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e Sales 7.017.456 8.146.732 8.240.475 8.383.441 9.055.598 9.158.470 9.367.807 EBITDA 1.085.275 1.733.061 1.370.999 1.037.062 1.178.502 1.054.100 976.306 EBIT 884.143 1.535.023 1.216.658 873.913 1.000.392 874.121 792.213 NOPAT 665.365 1.152.979 913.849 656.408 751.408 656.564 595.042 ROIC 12.9% 23.9% 17.9% 12.3% 12.7% 11% 9.8% EBITDA margin 15.5% 21.3% 16.6% 12.4% 13.3% 11.5% 10.4% EV/ Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E Multiples 2017 2018e 2017 2018e 2017 2018e 2017 2018e Grieg Seafood 1.4 1.6 9.1 7.7 11.1 8.6 13.4 11.1 Peer group 1.8 2.3 8.1 9.6 10.5 10.3 13.8 14.2 Page | 1 Table of content 1 INTRODUCTION AND MOTIVATION .................................................................................................. 4 2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVE .......................................................................................................................... 4 3 METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION ..................................................................................... 5 3.1 DATA COLLECTION ................................................................................................................................. 5 3.2 METHODOLOGY...................................................................................................................................... 6 4 LIMITATIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS ..................................................................................................... 7 5 SALMON FARMING INDUSTRY ............................................................................................................ 8 5.1 THE GLOBAL SALMON FARMING INDUSTRY ............................................................................................ 9 5.2 SALMON PRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 10 5.3 LICENSES AND MAXIMUM ALLOWED BIOMASS ..................................................................................... 12 5.4 SALMON PRICE ..................................................................................................................................... 14 5.5 PRODUCTION COSTS STRUCTURE .......................................................................................................... 15 5.6 BUSINESS CYCLE .................................................................................................................................. 16 6 COMPANY OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................................... 17 6.1 GRIEG GROUP ....................................................................................................................................... 17 6.2 GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA .......................................................................................................................... 17 6.3 SHARE PRICE DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................................................ 22 6.4 PEER GROUP ......................................................................................................................................... 23 7 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................................... 25 7.1 ACCOUNTING QUALITY ........................................................................................................................ 25 7.2 ADJUSTMENTS TO FINANCIAL STATEMENT ........................................................................................... 26 7.3 PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................... 29 7.4 RISK ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................... 43 7.5 SYNTHETIC CREDIT RATING .................................................................................................................. 49 8 STRATEGIC ANALYSIS: ........................................................................................................................ 51 8.1 VRIO ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................... 51 8.2 ANALYSIS OF THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT – PORTER’S FIVE FORCES ........................................... 57 8.3 ANALYSIS OF THE MACRO ENVIRONMENT – PESTEL ........................................................................... 63 9 SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................... 75 Page | 2 10 FORECASTING ......................................................................................................................................... 77 10.1 SUPPLY FORECAST ................................................................................................................................ 78 10.2 DEMAND .............................................................................................................................................. 83 10.3 SALMON PRICE FORECASTS .................................................................................................................. 84 10.4 OPERATING COST ................................................................................................................................. 88 10.5 PRO FORMA INCOME STATEMENT ......................................................................................................... 91 10.6 PRO FORMA BALANCE SHEET ................................................................................................................ 94 10.7 PRO FORMA CASH FLOW STATEMENT ................................................................................................... 94 11 COST OF CAPITAL.................................................................................................................................. 95 11.1 RISK FREE RATE.................................................................................................................................... 95 11.2 COST OF DEBT ...................................................................................................................................... 95 11.3 SYSTEMATIC RISK AND COST OF EQUITY .............................................................................................. 97 11.4 MARKET RISK PREMIUM ..................................................................................................................... 100 11.5 RETURN ON EQUITY ............................................................................................................................ 101 11.6 WEIGHTED COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) .............................................................................................. 101 12 VALUATION ........................................................................................................................................... 102 12.1 PRESENT VALUE APPROACH ............................................................................................................... 102 12.2 THE RELATIVE VALUATION APPROACH ............................................................................................... 105 12.3 SCENARIO AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 107 12.4 ANALYSTS’ PREDICTIONS ................................................................................................................... 115 12.5 VALUATION SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 116 13 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................
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