DERIVATIVES, OSLO BØRS - NOVEMBER 2009
The OBX index has increased for five consecutive months. The index rose 9% in November, from 299.29 to 326 points, and so far this year the OBX is up almost 64%.
The premium turnover fell in November. The stock options decreased by 23% to 92 MNOK and the stock forwards fell by 20% to 806 MNOK. The open interest, however, increased for both options and forwards.
The OBX futures turnover fell slightly in November (3%) from 21.8 BNOK to 21.2 BNOK, whereas the OBX options decreased by 33% to 38 MNOK.
The average number of contracts traded in November was 49 400 contracts/day, whereas the average for the year is 54 082 contracts/day.
The most traded stock option in October was Statoil with 26 MNOK or 28% of the stock option premium turnover. Yara and Seadrill followed with 27.7% and 12% of the total.
Tandberg was the most traded stock forward followed by Statoil and Norsk Hydro. They had 23%, 18% and 17% of the total forward exposure respectively.
Expirations in November: OBX, Statoil, DnB NOR, Norsk Hydro, Storebrand, Tandberg and Yara.
Expirations next month (17 December): OBX, Statoil, Norske Skog, Tomra, Marine Harvest and Seadrill.
For more detailed information, please read ahead
This summary continues with a presentation of general statistics, followed by a product- and volatility overview towards the end. We hope to see you back in the derivatives market next month.
Disclaimer: All information in this presentation is obtained from documents already available to the public. Oslo Børs does not guarantee the accuracy of the information included in the presentation. The presentation does not in any way constitute a recommendation by Oslo Børs.
Contract Distribution
75 000
70 000
65 000
60 000
55 000
50 000
45 000
40 000
35 000 Index Futures Single Stock Fwd. 30 000
OBX Index Options Contracts/day 25 000 Stock Options
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09
TURNOVER - CONTRACTS/DAY (average)
Contracts/Day last month
OBX - FUTURES 31 454
STOCK OPTIONS 10 043
STOCK FORWARDS 5 232 OBX - OPTIONS 2 670
Contracts/Day YTD 2009
OBX - FUTURES 36 135
STOCK OPTIONS 10 321
STOCK FORWARDS OBX - OPTIONS 4 604 3 023
LIQUIDITY - OPTION PREMIUM DISTRIBUTION
Option Premium last month OBX - options Statoil 8.2 % 19.6 % Yara International 4.5 % Seadrill
4.5 % Tandberg
Norsk Hydro 3.9 % Renewable Energy Corp. 3.4 % Telenor 1.8 % 1.7 % Acergy
0.8 % Orkla 0.8 % 0.7 % DnB NOR 0.5 % 0.4 % Marine Harvest Group 20.1 % 0.0 % Petroleum Geo-Services
Norske Skog
Storebrand 29.2 % Tomra
Option Premium YTD 2009 6.7 % OBX - options Statoil 16.2 % 5.2 % 5.1 % Yara International
Seadrill 3.9 % Norsk Hydro
Renewable Energy Corp. 3.7 % 2.8 % Telenor DnB NOR 2.4 % 1.5 % Tandberg 1.3 % Orkla 0.9 % Petroleum Geo-Services 0.8 % 19.1 % 0.6 % Acergy 0.1 % Storebrand
Norske Skog
Marine Harvest Group 29.7 % Tomra
4
SINGLE STOCK FORWARDS - EXPOSURE DISTRIBUTION
Stock Forward Premium last month
13.8 % 8.3 % Tandberg Statoil Norsk Hydro 6.0 % DnB NOR 16.5 % Telenor
3.9 % Royal Caribbean C. 3.6 % Renewable Energy Corp. Yara International
3.3 % Seadrill Orkla 1.9 % Storebrand 0.8 % Petroleum Geo-Services 0.7 % 0.5 % Marine Harvest Group 0.1 % Acergy 17.6 % 0.0 % Norske Skog 0.0 % TGS Nopec Geo. 0.0 % Tomra 23.0 %
Stock Forward Premium YTD 2009 Statoil 7.5 % 10.6 % 6.1 % Yara International Norsk Hydro 5.6 % Telenor
Renewable Energy Corp.
4.8 % Tandberg 11.8 % Orkla 4.3 % DnB NOR
Royal Caribbean Cruises 3.2 % Seadrill
2.2 % Petroleum Geo-Services
0.7 % Marine Harvest Group 0.4 % Norske Skog
0.4 % Acergy 0.3 % Storebrand 0.0 % 12.8 % Tomra 0.0 % TGS Nopec Geo.
29.2 %
5
PREMIUM - SINGLE STOCK DERIVATIVES
Single Stock Options
140 500 000
450 000 120 119 400 000 119 100 105 350 000 106 100 94 300 000 91 92 80 88 Contracts
84 - 250 000
60 67 66 200 000
40 150 000 Turnover Premium MNOK 100 000
20 Open Interest (avg) 50 000
0 0 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09
Turnover premium/month - Stock Options Open Interest (avg) - Stock Options Single Stock Forwards
1 200 80 000
70 000 1 000
1 003 60 000
800
793 50 000
806
Contracts - 600 40 000
502 30 000 447
400 428
466
502
364 382
408 20 000 Turnover Premium MNOK
200
10 000 Open Interest (avg) 162
0 0 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09
Turnover premium/ month - Single Stock Fwds Open Interest (avg) - Single Stock Fwds
6
PREMIUM - OBX DERIVATIVES
OBX - Index Options
60 70 000
57 60 000 50 54
49 50 000 40 42
38 40 000
48 38 36 Contracts - 30 33 30 000
20 20 21 20 000
30 Turnover Premium MNOK
10 10 000 Open Interest(avg)
0 0 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Turnover premium/ month - OBX-indexoptions Open Interest (avg) - OBX-indexoptions
OBX - Index Futures
30 000 230 000
25 000 220 000 21 489
20 000 21 235 210 000
21 978
21 796
20 344
Contracts
17 414 18 877
15 000 200 000 -
16 643
19 369
14 591 16 116
10 000 190 000
14 220 Turnover exposureMNOK
5 000 180 000 Open Interest(avg)
0 170 000 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09
Turnover exposure/month - OBX-indexfutures Open Interest (avg) - OBX-indexfutures
7
BROKER STATISTICS - NOVEMBER 2009
Only companies with more than 0,5% of the total market share are shown.
Options 10.6 %
8.2 %
3.0 % Non-Norwegian 28.4 % 2.7 % DnB NOR 1.8 % SEB Enskilda 1.1 % Handelsbanken 0.6 % 0.5 % Net Fonds Carnegie Pareto Nordea Argo Danske Bank
42.5 %
Forwards
6.4 %
DnB NOR 4.9 % Non-Norwegian 1.8 % Handelsbanken 1.8 % Nordea
First
84.7 %
8
OBX Futures
36.5 %
13.3 % Handelsbanken DnB NOR 2.2 % Non-Norwegian 1.8 % Nordea 1.0 % Argo SEB Enskilda
43.9 %
9
OBX INDEX - CONSTITUENTS AND OTHER INFORMATION
The OBX Index consists of the 25 most traded securities in the OSEBX Index (currently 24 due to Tandberg offer). The constituents are selected on the basis of six months turnover rating. It is a semi-annually revised free float adjusted total return index (dividend adjusted) with composition changes and cappings implemented on the third Friday in June and December. In the period between the composition review dates, the number of shares for each constituent is fixed with exception of cappings and continuous adjustments for corporate actions. The OBX Index is a tradable index with exchange traded futures and options available.
30.11.09: 326.00 All time high (22.05.08 close): 462.70
10
The current OBX Index composition can be found below. The Derivatives department at Oslo Børs distributes a daily report with information on the OBX Index and its components. If you would like to receive this daily update, please send “Request for OBX Morning Report” to [email protected].
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OSLO BØRS - LISTED DERIVATIVES (as of 30 Nov 2009) OPEN INTEREST - OPTIONS AND OBX FUTURES ONLY
The OBX Index consists of the 25 most Sector: N/A Last (NOK): OBX Index (OBX) traded securities in the OSEBX Index. The 326,00 constituents are selected on the basis of ISIN: NO 000 000 0021 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 29% six months turnover rating (Jun & Dec). It is a semi-annually revised, free float Reuters: .OBX Expiry: Each Month adjusted total return index (dividend Open Int Options (avg): 46 866 adjusted). Home: www.oslobors.no Bloomberg: OBX NO Open Int Fut (avg): 206 695 Liquidity: Tradable in blocks of O/I Options avg. 2009: 41 067 Weight of All Shares: 42,14% Around 3000 contracts. O/I Fut avg. 2009: 205 590 Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Futures Market Maker(s): 7
Acergy S.A. is a seabed-to-surface Sector: Oil & Gas Equipment & Last (NOK): Acergy (ACY) engineering and construction contractor Services 10101020 85,60 for the offshore oil and gas industry ISIN: LU 007 564 6355 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 42% worldwide. Reuters: ACY.OL Expiry: Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct Home: www.acergy-group.com Bloomberg: ACY NO Open Int (avg): 6 570
Liquidity: OBX Weight: 2,91% O/I avg. 2009: 4 954 Tradable in blocks of 500-1000 contracts. Domicile: Luxembourg Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 3
DnB NOR is Norway's leading financial Sector: Diversified Banks 40101010 Last (NOK): DnB NOR (DNBNOR) services group with total combined assets 65,00 of NOK 1470 billion. ISIN: NO 001 003 1479 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 41%
Home: www.dnbnor.com Reuters: DNB.OL Expiry: Feb, May, Aug, Nov
Bloomberg: DNB NO Open Int (avg): 48 489
Liquidity: Tradable in blocks of 1000-3000 OBX Weight: 8,76% O/I avg. 2009: 27 644 contracts. Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 3
12
Marine Harvest MARINE HARVEST is the world's leading seafood company. They offer customers Sector: Packaged Foods & Meats Last (NOK): 4,30 Group (MHG) and consumers a wide range of seafood 30202030 products and produce one fourth of the ISIN: NO 000 305 4108 world's farmed salmon. The company is Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 44% present in 18 countries and has 7500 employees worldwide. Reuters: MHG.OL Expiry: Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec Home: www.marineharvest.com Bloomberg: MHG NO Open Int (avg): 51 479 Liquidity: Tradable in blocks of 10 000 O/I avg. 2009: 51 278 OBX Weight: 1,83% contracts. Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 3
NORSK HYDRO is a global supplier of Sector: Aluminium Last (NOK): Norsk Hydro (NHY) aluminium and aluminium products. 15104010 41,19 Based in Norway, the company employs ISIN: NO 000 505 2605 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 40% 25,000 people in more than 30 countries. Reuters: NHY.OL Expiry: Feb, May, Aug, Nov Home: www.norskhydro.com Bloomberg: NHY NO and NOHYF US Open Int (avg): 55 886 Liquidity: OBX Weight: 4,78% O/I avg. 2009: 38 642 Tradable in blocks of 3000 contracts.
Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 7
Norske Skog (NSG) NORSKE SKOG is one of the world's Sector: Paper Products 15105020 Last (NOK): 8,80 biggest producers of publication paper, with 16 paper mills in 12 countries and a ISIN: NO 000 413 5633 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 75% production capacity of around 5.2 mill. tonnes per year. Reuters: NSG.OL Expiry: Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec Home: www.norskeskog.com Bloomberg: NSG NO Open Int (avg): 15 238
Liquidity: Tradable in blocks of 1000- OBX Weight: 0,28% O/I avg. 2009: 14 014 2000 contracts. Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 4
13
Sector: Industrial Conglomerates ORKLA operates in the branded consumer Last (NOK): Orkla (ORK) 20105010 52,50 goods, aluminium solutions, materials, renewable energy and financial ISIN: NO 000 373 3800 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 31% investment sectors. The group has a Reuters: ORK.OL Expiry: Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct turnover of NOK 70 billion and 35,000 employees in more than 40 countries. Bloomberg: ORK NO Open Int (avg): 30 347 Home: www.orkla.no
Liquidity: Tradable in volumes of around OBX Weight: 7,46% O/I avg. 2009: 20 055 2000 contracts. Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 5
Petroleum Geo- PETROLEUM GEO-SERVICES offers Sector: Oil & Gas Equipment & Last (NOK): 61,10 Services (PGS) seismic and electromagnetic Services 10101020 services, data acquisition, processing, reservoir analysis/interpretation and ISIN: NO 001 019 9151 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 44% multi-client library data. PGS helps oil Reuters: PGS.OL Expiry: Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct companies to find oil and gas reserves worldwide. Bloomberg: PGS NO Open Int (avg): 6 849 Home: www.pgs.com Liquidity: Tradable for volumes around OBX Weight: 1,78% O/I avg. 2009: 4 261 500-1000 contracts. Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 3
Sector: Electrical Components & Renewable Energy RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION was Equipment founded in 1996. REC has a presence in Last (NOK): 36,91 Corporation (REC) 20104010 all parts of the industry value chain from production of raw material to solar energy ISIN: NO 001 011 2675 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 66% products. The company has customers Reuters: REC.OL Expiry: Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct around the world and approx. 1 400 employees in 4 countries on 3 continents. Bloomberg: REC NO Open Int (avg): 43 564 Home: www.recgroup.com Liquidity: Tradable in blocks of 1000-2000 OBX Weight: 1,10% O/I avg. 2009: 19 331 contracts. Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 3
14
Sector: Oil and Gas Drilling SEADRILL Limited is an international Last (NOK): Seadrill (SDRL) 10101010 137,70 drilling contractor providing services within drilling and well services. Seadrill ISIN: BMG 7945E 1057 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 39% has 6,000 employees, representing 25 nationalities, on five continents. Reuters: SDRL.OL Expiry: Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec Home: www.seadrill.com Bloomberg: SDRL NO Open Int (avg): 22 711
Liquidity: Tradable for volumes around OBX Weight: 6,71% O/I avg. 2009: 17 100 2000 contracts. Domicile: Bermuda Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 3
Sector: Multi-Line Insurance STOREBRAND is a leading player in the Last (NOK): Storebrand (STB) 40301030 40,00 markets for long-term savings and insurance. The group consists of the ISIN: NO 000 305 3605 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 44% following business areas: life insurance, Reuters: STB.OL Expiry: Feb, May, Aug, Nov asset management, banking and non-life insurance. Bloomberg: STB NO Open Int (avg): 4 553 Home: www.storebrand.com
Liquidity: Tradable in blocks of 500-1000 OBX Weight: 2,49% O/I avg. 2009: 6 479 contracts. Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 3
STATOIL is the leading operator on the Sector: Integrated Oil & Gas Last (NOK): Statoil (STL) Norwegian continental shelf, and one of 10102010 142,60 the world’s largest operators of offshore ISIN: NO 001 009 6985 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 29% oil and gas activities. The company has about 31 000 employees in more than 40 Reuters: STL.OL Expiry: Each month countries.
Bloomberg: SYO NO and STO US Open Int (avg): 88 724 Home: www.statoil.com Liquidity: Good liquidity for 3000 OBX Weight: 25,21% O/I avg. 2009: 65 553 contracts, and even more. Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 7
15
Sector: Communications Equipment TANDBERG is a leading global provider of Last (NOK): Tandberg (TAA) 45201020 161,40 visual communication products and services. Tandberg designs, develops and ISIN: NO 000 562 0856 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 26% markets the systems and software for video, voice and data communication. Reuters: TAA.OL Expiry: Feb, May, Aug, Nov Home: www.tandberg.com Bloomberg: TAA NO Open Int (avg): 16 041
Liquidity: Traded in blocks of 500-1000 OBX Weight: 3,16% O/I avg. 2009: 9 960 contracts. Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 1
TELENOR is a leading international Sector: Integrated Telecom. Last (NOK): Telenor (TEL) provider of communication services and Services 50101020 80,10 one of the largest mobile operators ISIN: NO 001 006 3308 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 31% worldwide. Reuters: TEL.NO Expiry: Jan. Apr, Jul, Oct Home: www.telenor.no Bloomberg: TEL NO and TELN US Open Int (avg): 24 896 Liquidity: Traded in volumes of 3000 OBX Weight: 11,58% O/I avg. 2009: 24 378 contracts. Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 7
TOMRA is a leading global provider of Sector: Environmental & Facilities Last (NOK): Tomra (TOM) advanced solutions enabling recovery and Services 20201050 28,40 recycling of used materials. ISIN: NO 000 566 8905 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 35%
Home: www.tomra.com Reuters: TOM.OL Expiry: Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec Bloomberg: TOM NO Open Int (avg): 1 226
OBX Weight: N/A O/I avg. 2009: 2 066 Liquidity: Slow activity. Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 4
16
YARA International ASA is the world’s Sector: Fertilizers & Agricultural Last (NOK): Yara (YAR) leading supplier of mineral fertilizers Chemicals 15101030 253,10 selling more than 20 million tonnes of ISIN: NO 001 020 8051 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: 40% fertilizers in more than 120 countries. Reuters: YAR.OL Expiry: Feb, May, Aug, Nov Home: www.yara.com Bloomberg: YAR NO Open Int (avg): 24 810 Liquidity: Traded in blocks of around 1000-3000 contracts. OBX Weight: 8,33% O/I avg. 2009: 26 060
Domicile: Norway Derivatives: Options & Fwd/Fut Market Maker(s): 3
Royal Caribbean ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES is a global Sector: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Last (NOK): 139,50 Cruises (RCL) cruise vacation company that operates Lines 25301020 Royal Caribbean International and ISIN: LR 000 886 2868 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: N/A Celebrity Cruises, with a combined total
of 29 ships in service and one under Reuters: RCL.OL Expiry: Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct construction. Home: www.rclinvestor.com Bloomberg: RCL NO Open Int (avg): N/A
Liquidity: The forwards are not traded OBX Weight: 1,64% O/I avg. 2009: N/A very much, but market maker quotes Domicile: Liberia sharp prices on demand. Derivatives: Forwards/Futures Only Market Maker(s): 1
TGS-NOPEC is a global provider of Sector: Oil & Gas Equipment & Last (NOK): TGS-NOPEC (TGS) geoscience data and associated products Services 10101020 95,40 & services to the oil and gas industry. ISIN: NO 000 307 8800 Avg.Imp.Vol last month: N/A
Home: www.tgsnopec.no Reuters: TGS.OL Expiry: Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct
Bloomberg: TGS NO Open Int (avg): N/A Liquidity: The forwards are not traded OBX Weight: 1,71% O/I avg. 2009: N/A very much, but market maker quotes Domicile: Norway sharp prices on demand. Derivatives: Forwards/Futures Only Market Maker(s): 1
17
MARKET MAKERS
Argo Securities: OBX, NHY, ORK, STL, TEL
DnB NOR Markets: OBX, ACY, MHG, NHY, NSG, ORK, PGS, REC, SDRL, STB, STL, TAA, TEL, TOM, YAR, (RCL, TGS)
Handelsbanken Capital Markets: OBX, ACY, PGS, NHY, NSG, REC, SDRL, STB, STL, TEL, TOM, YAR
Nordea Markets: OBX, ACY, NHY, NSG, ORK, PGS, REC, STL, TEL, TOM
SEB Enskilda: OBX, DNBNOR, NHY, STL, TEL
Swedbank: OBX, DNBNOR, NHY, ORK, STL, TEL
Timber Hill Europe: OBX, DNBNOR, MHG, NHY, NSG, ORK, SDRL, STB, STL, TEL, TOM, YAR
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OPTIONS - OBSERVED ATM IMPLIED VOLATILITIES (WEEK 49)
Weekly Volatilities = average of Last Buy+Sell vol. for ATM CALLS and PUTS for front+back month. If no trade - last Bid/Offer is used. Lack of data may occur, thus volatilities should be seen as indicative.
OBX Observed ATM Implied Volatility
90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00
ACY Observed ATM Implied Volatility
125.00 115.00 105.00 95.00 85.00 75.00 65.00 55.00 45.00 35.00
DNBNOR Observed ATM Implied Volatility
115.00 100.00 85.00 70.00 55.00 40.00 25.00 10.00
19
MHG Observed ATM Implied Volatility
135.00 120.00 105.00 90.00 75.00 60.00 45.00 30.00
NHY Observed ATM Implied Volatility
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
NSG Observed ATM Implied Volatility
105.00 95.00 85.00 75.00 65.00 55.00 45.00 35.00 25.00 15.00
20
ORK Observed ATM Implied Volatility
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
PGS Observed ATM Implied Volatility
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
REC Observed ATM Implied Volatility
125.00 115.00 105.00 95.00 85.00 75.00 65.00 55.00 45.00 35.00
21
SDRL Observed ATM Implied Volatility
120.00 110.00 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00
STB Observed ATM Implied Volatility
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
STL Observed ATM Implied Volatility
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
22
TAA Observed ATM Implied Volatility
110.00 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00
TEL Observed ATM Implied Volatility
85.00
75.00
65.00
55.00
45.00
35.00
25.00
15.00
TOM Observed ATM Implied Volatility
75.00 70.00 65.00 60.00 55.00 50.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00
23
YAR Observed ATM Implied Volatility
100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00
Disclaimer: All information in this presentation is obtained from documents already available to 24 the public. Oslo Børs does not guarantee the accuracy of the information included in the presentation. The presentation does not in any way constitute a recommendation by Oslo Børs.