BUSINESS WITH PERSONALITY REDKNAPP SHARES SLUMP AFTER ON TRIAL SPURS BOSS BLACKBERRY RESHUFFLE FACING BUNGS EXECS FINALLY ADMIT DEFEAT P17 CLAIMS P34-35 Issue 1,555 Tuesday 24 January 2012 www.cityam.com FREE BRUSSELS IN NEW ATTACK ON BANK PAY

▲ in contracts with senior executives year. POLITICS so that they can get money back if In his speech at Guildhall yester- BY JULIET SAMUEL actions are later deemed to have day, Barnier also told a City audi- caused certain kinds of losses. ence that Brussels is not trying to BRUSSELS could make its ultra-strict But Barnier suggested that more undermine London as a leading rulebook on bankers’ pay even intervention could be necessary to financial centre. harsher, commissioner Michel avoid a “violent reaction” from “Contrary to what I often read, Barnier said yesterday during a visit increasingly resentful European vot- there is no plot. No plot to under- to the City. ers. mine the City. No plot to boost Paris The ideas under consideration He told Reuters: “If banks are inca- or Frankfurt at the expense of the include forcing lenders to set a max- pable of self-discipline with regards City,” he claimed, suggesting that imum ratio between their most and to bonuses, then we must act.” Britain would continue to be “at the Asil Nadir and his wife, Nur, arrive outside the Old Bailey yesterday least highly pay staff and requiring He added: “Among the ideas that heart of Europe”. bankers’ fixed base salaries to we are exploring is a ratio between He added that if Europe had given account for a minimum amount of fixed salary and bonus… Another in to UK demands for “safeguards” their total pay package, as opposed idea which could be considered is a for the City at a summit last month, to their bonus. ratio between the lowest level of pay it would have undermined the sin- Nadir stole £150m and If introduced, the new rules in a bank and the highest level of gle market by leading to counter- would be the second major overhaul pay.” demands by other states. of bank pay regulations in less than Either of the measures would lead He also warned that Europe’s two years, threatening to throw to a complete rethink of banks’ costs move to examine structural reform fled to Cyprus, court told lenders’ cost planning into disarray. bases. of the banking sector could lead to Europe introduced the strictest Investment bankers, in particular, the imposition of a rival system to

pay regime in the world in January are often given most of their reward the Vickers Commission ringfence. ▲ considerable power over its operations last year, forcing no more than 20-30 in a variable annual bonus rather “Do not assume that the conclu- COURTS and management, and that of its sub- per cent of awards to be given in than their base salary. The system sion of this thinking means repro- BY PETER EDWARDS sidiaries, particularly in Northern cash upfront – with the rest in allows banks to cut some awards ducing the UK approach to the EU,” Cyprus... He abused that power and shares or deferred pay. Banks also down to the bone when revenues he said. ASIL Nadir, the Turkish Cypriot helped himself to tens of millions of have to include “clawback” clauses are suffering – as they have this EUROZONE NEWS: P6-7 tycoon, stole £150m from his own pounds of PPI’s money. company more than 20 years ago, a “As a director of PPI and a signatory court heard yesterday. on the account, he was entitled to Nadir switched £146m and $6.4m instruct PPI’s bankers to transfer (now £4.1m) from his Polly Peck funds... However, he would have no Cable’s plan for clawbacks and International empire to a bank he authority to transfer or authorise owned in Northern Cyprus before funds from PPI for his own personal fleeing the country, the Old Bailey benefit or that of his family or associ- was told. ates.” tougher votes on director pay The businessman, now 70, Nadir, former chairman and CEO of siphoned off the money for himself, Polly Peck International, was due to ▲ POLITICS his family and his associates between stand trial in late 1993 but fled to Cable, left, said he also wants tatives to sit on remunera- 1987 and 1990, it is alleged. Northern Cyprus and did not return SHAREHOLDERS will be to make it easier for compa- tion committees. Companies Prosecutor Philip Shears, QC, told until August 2010. Nadir, who lives in given binding votes on execu- nies to claw back money will also escape having to jurors Nadir had moved the cash into Mayfair, arrived at court with his wife. tive directors’ pay as part of from directors if poor per- publish pay ratios, showing a “fairly complex structure of offshore He faces 13 specimen charges of coalition plans to reform the formance subsequently the gap between highest- and companies” in Switzerland, the theft, relating to £33.1m and $2.5m, corporate landscape. emerges. But he dropped lowest-paid members of staff. Bahamas and beyond, at times using which he denies. The case continues Business secretary Vince plans for workers’ represen- ALLISTER HEATH: P2; P3 his mother’s bank account. and is expected to last between four “He was a man who wielded very and six months.

▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ Certified Distribution FTSE 100 5,782.56 +54.01 DOW 12,708.82 -11.66 NASDAQ 2,784.17 -2.53 £/$ 1.56 unc £/¤ 1.20 unc ¤/$ 1.30 +0.01 28/11/11 till 01/01/12 is 92,879 2 News CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Music industry shows content is king NEWS | IN BRIEF Petroplus halts fuel deliveries Petroplus has been forced by its lenders to stop delivery lorries from leaving its performance in years. Collapsing CD REFORMING CEO PAY if it turns out that what seemed to be a refinery in Coryton in Essex, the area’s sales are now almost being compensat- Of course, there was lots of bureaucrat- good performance in fact wasn’t, as a MEP Richard Howitt said yesterday. The ed for by surging paid-for downloads, ic, time-wasting nonsense in Vince result of a hidden scandal, for exam- struggling company’s shares were sus- and no longer only thanks to iTunes. Cable’s executive pay speech yesterday ple. These are now already the norm in pended from the Swiss SIX exchange Global digital revenues grew 8 per (see page opposite). Many of the pseu- finance as part of deferred compensa- yesterday as it continues talks with its cent to $5.2bn, according to the IFPI, do-reforms announced won’t amount tion schemes. It is great that notice creditors. Petroplus has already closed with single downloads up 11 per cent to much. But shareholders’ rights will periods of more than a year will have three refineries in Europe but has been by volume and albums up 24 per cent. be reinforced and it will be they, not to be ratified by shareholders; again, committed to keeping open Coryton, EDITOR’S LETTER The top selling single was Bruno bureaucrats, who will be in charge of this will reduce payoffs for failure and which can output 220,000 barrels per Mars’ Just The Way You Are, at over corporate pay. This is good news; the some of the extreme termination pay- day and employs around 1,000 people. ALLISTER HEATH 12.5m paid-for downloads; while prices substantive changes announced yester- ments that have done so much dam- are low, these are real numbers. The day are pro-capitalist and give share- age to the City’s reputation. Labour group sounds jobs alarm MOST industries have done well from number of users paying to subscribe to holders more clarity and power. Boards I would have gone further: for exam- The International Labour Organization the extraordinary change unleashed a music service grew 65 per cent to work for their owners and that is how ple, shareholders could be responsible sounded the alarm on the global jobs situ- by the internet since the web went 13.4m. In the US, digital channels now it should be; reasserting and strength- for directly appointing members of the ation in its annual report published yes- mainstream in 1994. Among the few account for 52 per cent of revenues; ening that link is the best way to pre- remuneration committee. But – terday, as it called for more coordination exceptions have been content business- globally, it is 32 per cent, surpassing vent rewards for failure. inflammatory rhetoric aside – at least of fiscal policies, repair and regulation of es, including the media and music the proportion reached by the film, That is why it is a good thing that Cable hasn’t really made any existing the financial sector and support for the industries, which have seen their old newspaper and book industries. this announcement was a damp squib failings much worse (apart from a few real economy. “What has changed with business models decimated by the The beleaguered music industry is in the sense of being less controversial minor and ultimately irrelevant nods respect to last year is that our forecast technological revolution and which not out of the woods yet; piracy than expected: many of the silly or to form-ticking and to fake diversity) has become much more pessimistic,” said have struggled to build a viable alter- remains a huge problem. But its ability unworkable ideas (such as appointing and has actually proposed some real Ekkehard Ernst, one of the report's native. So it is encouraging to note that to stabilise itself is good news for other “employees” to the board) have been improvements. The devil will be in the authors. The ILO said that it no longer after years of decline the music indus- creative industries. One way or the ditched or diluted in such a way as to detail but on balance these are a expected “a gradual stagnation or coming try could finally be stabilising, with other, clever, lean, entrepreneurial become meaningless. But the good decent set of reforms. down of unemployment numbers,” warn- revenues only falling by 3 per cent last companies will be able to monetise reforms have remained. It makes sense [email protected] ing that another 40m jobs need to be cre- year to around $16bn, the least bad good content. to have claw-back clauses in contracts Follow me on Twitter: @allisterheath ated each year for the next decade.

4th Floor, 33 Queen Street, London, EC4R 1BR Tel: 020 3201 8900 Fax: 020 7248 2711 Lords block Email: [email protected] www.cityam.com Editorial Editor Allister Heath Deputy Editor David Hellier News Editor David Crow welfare bill Acting Night Editor Marion Dakers Business Features Editor Marc Sidwell Lifestyle Editor Zoe Strimpel ▲ POLITICS the same for a childless couple as for Sports Editor Frank Dalleres BY KASMIRA JEFFORD a couple with children. Child benefit Art Director Gavin Billenness is the most appropriate way to right Obama administration officials met yesterday to discuss settlement terms. Pictures Alice Hepple THE GOVERNMENT has suffered a this unfairness,” he said. further defeat over its welfare reform A spokesperson for the Commercial proposals after peers backed a move Department for Work and Pension Sales Director Jeremy Slattery to exclude child benefits from the said following the debate they were US mortgage deal closer Commercial Director Harry Owen £26,000 annual cap on benefits paid “very disappointed” by the decision. Head of Distribution Nick Owen to families. “If you take child benefit out of the The House of Lords voted by 252 to cap – it will simply become ineffec- ▲ BANKING JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Ally Distribution helpline 237 last night in favour of the amend- tive, failing the very principles of our Financial would provide between If you have any comments about the distribution BY HARRY BANKS of City A.M. Please ring 0207 015 1230, or email ment introduced by the Bishop of reforms, which is to bring fairness $19bn ((£12.2bn) to $25bn of relief. [email protected] Ripon and Leeds, the Rt Rev John back into our welfare system while US STATE and federal officials are A spokesman for Iowa attorney Packer, and backed by Labour. ensuring that support goes to those nearing a deal with the nation’s five general Tom Miller, who is leading Editorial Statement The vote came after a Labour-led who need it,” he said. largest mortgage lenders to settle the talks on behalf of the states, said This newspaper adheres to the system of call to exempt people considered at It is the fifth defeat for the govern- claims of foreclosure that drove peo- the negotiators had “a good informa- self-regulation overseen by the Press Complaints risk of homelessness from the cap ment after peers voted down on other ple out of their homes. tional meeting”. Commission. The PCC takes complaints about the was rejected by 250 votes to 222. parts of the government’s flagship Democratic state attorneys general Two Democratic lawmakers also editorial content of publications under the Editor’s Code of Practice, a copy of which can be found at Bishop Packer argued that impos- welfare reform bill earlier this and Obama administration officials joined representatives of several www.pcc.org.uk ing the cap on all households regard- month. However the decision is like- met yesterday in Chicago to discuss activist groups to call for a deeper Printed by Newsfax International, less of their size, would, in effect, ly to be overturned when the legisla- the terms of the settlement. investigation into mortgage abuses, Beam Reach 5 Business Park, penalise children. tion returns to the Commons. People familiar with the talks have after critics said the deal released the Marsh Way, Rainham, Essex, RM13 8RS “It cannot be right for the cap to be MORE ON WELFARE CAP: P13 said Bank of America, Wells Fargo, banks from too many claims. WHAT THE OTHER PAPERS SAY THIS MORNING

Campaign for Real Ale. This was up from an average of 14 closures a week in the first half of 2011. HAYWARD ACCUSED OF LYING TO US LEGO’S SMALL SOLDIERS LEAD TOYS’ NEWS INTERNATIONAL PLANNING TO T-MOBILE, AT&T SEEK APPROVAL OF CONGRESS DIAMONDBACK SETTLES INSIDER TRAD- ADVANCE LAUNCH SUNDAY EDITION OF SUN IN SPECTRUM TRANSFER Lawyers for plaintiffs suing for dam- ING CASE Tablet computer toys, Nerf guns and APRIL, CLAIMS MP TOM WATSON T-Mobile USA and AT&T filed a ages over the Deepwater Horizon dis- Diamondback became the first hedge above all Lego’s play for the nation’s Speculation that News International request with the US Federal aster in 2010 have alleged that Tony fund to reach a settlement with feder- pocket money meant that Britain’s may introduce a Sunday edition of the Communications Commission for Hayward, BP’s former chief executive, al prosecutors in connection with toy industry succeeded where so Sun newspaper was rekindled today approval of the transfer of $1bn in lied in a court statement and gave their probe of insider trading on Wall many others failed last year and grew after Tom Watson MP cited a source wireless airwaves AT&T promised as a untruthful testimony to the US Street as it agreed to pay $9m (£5.8m) by three per cent. A sales slump in saying the company was working result of the failure of its $39bn bid to Congress when he testified about the to resolve allegations it illegally prof- September and October was all but towards an April launch. take over its smaller rival. AT&T said spill. In a filing at the court in New ited from trading in shares of Dell forgotten amid a busy Christmas, it would turn over the airwaves, or Orleans that will hear the trial of BP and Nvidia. according to figures compiled by the SCOTTISH RENEWABLE ENERGY SET TO spectrum, along with $3bn in cash to and other companies involved in the toy industry analyst NPD. Helped by GET £7.6BN TO CONNECT TO GRID T-Mobile parent Deutsche Telekom accident, the plaintiffs’ lawyers said TURKISH AIRLINES EYES LOT PURCHASE comparisons with last year’s snow- Energy regulator Ofgem signalled it AG after pulling out of the deal as Mr Hayward “at best, has a unique Shares in Turkish Airlines (Turk Hava affected figures and an extra shop- was likely to approve up to £7.6bn of opposition mounted from the FCC, view of the truth”. Yollari) rose on Monday after the ping day as Christmas Eve fell on a infrastructure investment to connect Justice Department, state attorneys group said it was looking at buying Saturday, sales rose 15 per cent in the new Scottish wind farms and other general and rival carriers. PUB CLOSURES ACCELERATE IN SUBURBS Lot, but some analysts said they saw week to Christmas Day. renewable power generators to the UK The suburbs are bearing the brunt as little logic in a deal to take control of grid. Ofgem said yesterday it had fast- INTEL TO BUY SOME QLOGIC the number of pub closures rises the lossmaking Polish flag-carrier. LOSSES MAY FORCE CLOSURE OF tracked proposals for infrastructure NETWORKING ASSETS across Britain. An average of 16 pubs a The Turkish flag-carrier said it had BRITAIN’S BIGGEST COALMINE spending by energy companies Intel agreed to acquire QLogic’s week closed their doors in the six authorised its executive committee to The future of Britain’s biggest coal pit ScottishPower and SSE and expected InfiniBand business for $125m in months until the end of December carry out a “pre-examination of the and its 800 miners rests on a review to make a final decision in April. The cash, giving it networking technology last year, according to figures by the privatisation process and investment of the Daw Mill colliery set for the investment will be paid for through for the growing and competitive beer and pub pressure group the potential of Lot”. end of March. energy bills. supercomputer market. CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 News 3 Cable’s boardroom reforms get cautious support from companies

▲ REMUNERATION Barker also expects that binding said: “The introduction of a binding Britain the “most rigorous regime” on BY JAMES WATERSON AND PETER EDWARDS shareholder votes on remuneration vote on pay is a particularly welcome executive pay in the world. He added, will encourage shareholder activism move. As always, the devil will be in however, that the changes “may end VINCE Cable’s plans to reform board- and “remind institutional investors of the detail.” up creating more confusion than clar- room pay received a cautious backing their key governance responsibilities”. Stuart Fraser, policy chairman at the ity” and may not cut pay dramatically. from the City, although it was thought EasyJet founder Sir Stelios Haji- City of London Corporation, was cau- Campaigners for tough regulation Vince Cable unlikely that the business secretary’s Ioannou told City A.M. the coalition tious, however. He said pay is an “emo- of executive pay were disappointed. was forced to proposals would have a meaningful had taken a step forward. tive subject” and that British firms Len McCluskey, general secretary of announce his impact on actual pay levels. “Great news today from Vince need to pay a competitive rate in order trade union Unite, accused Cable of plans a day John Cridland, director-general of Cable. I think it’s a great victory for to retain internationally mobile staff”. “lacking backbone” in his retreat from early the CBI, said “executive pay must individual investors.” Sean O’Hare, remuneration partner plans to let workers’ reps sit on pay Picture: PA always be fair and transparent, and Legal & General Investment at PwC, said the reforms would give committees. that high pay must be for outstanding, Management welcomed the proposals not mediocre, performance” and but Sacha Sadan, director of corporate “introducing a single remuneration governance, said he wanted to see figure is a positive step forward”. directors’ remuneration linked to Roger Barker, head of corporate gov- “clear and explicit” targets based on ernance at the Institute of Directors, long term results. He also called on said it was right to drop plans to grant executives “to own a meaningful employees a place on remuneration amount of shares in the company”. committees but said boards should Dominic Rossi, global chief invest- still consider ways to engage with staff ment officer for equities at Fidelity over pay as part of “rebuilding trust in Worldwide Investment, which has the UK business system”. long called for investor pay controls, IN DETAIL | CABLE’S PAY AND CONDITIONS

● Voting ● Verdict Binding votes on future pay, including A binding vote on pay policy is a major details of how performance will be change which would make directors judged. Investors will be given a binding more accountable and force companies vote on any director’s notice period and to show they have taken account of exit payments longer than 12 months. shareholders’ views. The measure is not Coalition will also consider creating a watertight, however, because investors threshold of 75 per cent shareholder will only get an advisory vote on how backing for any pay proposals. the policy is put into practice. ● Clawbacks ● Verdict The government will also extend to all Clawbacks are a solid threat but will listed firms a requirement for executive face legal challenges if they are too director contracts to include clawback broad. This will only work in the case of mechanisms – not just in finance. obvious fraud or scandals. ● Diversity ● Verdict Vince Cable wants to see more people Will the outside experts know their appointed to boards from different pro- stuff? FSA rules dictate banks’ exec fessional backgrounds, such as lawyers, directors must have prior industry expe- public servants and academics, and peo- rience, for example. Also, many exec ple who are new to boards. directors are already new to boards. ● Total pay ● Verdict Companies will publish a single figure Total packages are already highlighted for the total package of each executive. by the media. However more clarity is a Boards will also be required to explain good thing and reduces disputes. But how executive pay compares to divi- total exec pay is actually already very dends, taxes, profits and so on. small compared with profits or sales. ● Independence ● Verdict Cable has pledged to look again at the Yesterday Cable came close to admit- make-up of pay committees. He cited ting that the amount of “cross-over” figures showing that just six per cent of between companies is actually relatively remuneration committee members at modest, especially at the exec director FTSE 350 companies are executives at and remuneration committee level. He other firms on the index. was vague about reform. ● Worker representation ● Verdict Cable dropped plans to Practical concerns meant include staff reps on remu- these proposals were neration committees because always unlikely, of the legal difficulties in giv- although shadow busi- ing positions to people who ness secretary Chuka are not company directors. Umunna (below) Firms will not be forced to pub- remains keen on the idea lish “pay ratios” showing the gap of workers’ reps. between the CEO and the low- (Words by Peter est-paid worker. Edwards) 4 News CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Allen Stanford’s Shares lifted fraud trial kicks by hopes of a off in Houston ▲ COURTS The trial of Allen Stanford, the Texan banker accused of running a $7bn Greece deal (£4.5bn) Ponzi scheme, started yester- day after years of delays. Prosecutors accuse Stanford of issu- ▲ MARKETS arranged by mid-March if Greece is to ing fraudulent certificates of deposit avoid defaulting on debt repayments. through his Antigua-based bank and BY TIM WALLACE The FTSE 100 hit 5782.56, up 0.94 then bilking investors out of their THE FTSE hit its highest level in almost per cent in one day and 13.6 per cent money. six months yesterday, leading a rise in in two months. Buoyed by bank capital Warships such as the HMS Argyll have been sent to the Strait of Hormuz Picture: REX Stanford, who faces 14 counts of shares across Europe as hopes grew reports, the STOXX Europe 600 Euro fraud, conspiracy and conspiracy to that negotiations to stop a Greek Zone Banking Index rose 3.9 per cent. commit money laundering, has default may finally conclude. Yields on risky Italian 10-year bonds denied any wrongdoing. Rumours of French and German dropped 0.141 per cent yesterday to EU bans Iran oil imports Investors have recovered nothing in proposals to cut bank capital require- 6.107 per cent, down a full percentage the two and a half years since he was ments, enabling increased lending, point from levels earlier this month. arrested. also boosted European markets. Greece also published a list of 4000 As jury selection began yesterday, Though the talks suffered a setback top tax evaders, in a bid to shame as nuclear row escalates Stanford, 61, stood and peered intent- last night, when finance ministers dodgers into paying up. ly at a pool of 80 jurors as they filed rebuffed an offer from Greece’s debt EUROZONE: P6-7 into a federal courtroom in Houston. holders, the mood in the Eurozone WEALTH MANAGEMENT: P26 ▲ ENERGY tect Europe’s economy amid the sover- He wore a rumpled light grey suit, a was optimistic during the day. BY HARRY BANKS eign debt crisis. blue shirt and no tie in his first court Negotiations took a turn for the ANALYSIS l The FTSE 100 is at its At a meeting of foreign ministers in appearance in street clothes since his highest since July worse over the weekend after the 6,000 points EUROPEAN Union governments yester- Brussels, EU governments also agreed arrest in June 2009. authorities asked investors to accept 5,782.56 day agreed to an immediate ban on all to freeze the assets of Iran's central Prosecutors have said Stanford’s 23 Jan new bonds yielding 3.5 per cent, 5,750 new contracts to import, buy or trans- bank and to ban all trade in gold and scheme included Swiss bank rather than the previously agreed four port Iranian crude oil, a move to put other precious metals with the bank accounts, a blood oath meant to keep per cent. 5,500 pressure on Tehran’s disputed nuclear and other public bodies. Western pow- Antigua’s financial regulator silent, Greek finance minister Evangelos programme by shutting off its main ers hope the far stricter sanctions, and an eleventh-hour flight to Libya Venizelos had hoped talks would be 5,250 source of foreign income. which brings the EU more closely into by Stanford and his girlfriend. complete by yesterday morning, and 5,000 But the governments agreed to line with US policy, will force Iran to Stanford’s attorneys have said that although that deadline was missed, phase in the embargo, giving coun- scale back or halt its nuclear work, he is unfit for trial after a severe jail- said good progress was being made. tries with existing contracts with Iran which Europe and the US believe is house beating and an addiction to The hair-cut and swap must be Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 until 1 July to end those deals to pro- aimed at developing weapons. anti-anxiety medication. CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 News 5 Hedgie Algebris struggles to make the numbers stack up

▲ HEDGE FUNDS ance by financials there could be long too soon and too hard…. BY PETER EDWARDS a return… This could be the year With hindsight, we should have for financials, credit and possibly gone long the end of the process,” THE hedge fund manager backed by equity at the end of the year.” he said. CEO Andy Raynor industry star Chris Hohn (pictured) Algebris’ Global Financials Meanwhile Crispin Odey’s (top l) and chair- expects a recovery in financial stocks fund fell 46 per cent last European fund lost 2.8 per man Bob Morton after being hit last year by Eurozone year. Lasagna highlighted cent last month. David (top r) have both leaders’ failure to tackle the debt crisis. the €109bn (£70bn) Stewart, head of Odey Asset left RSM Tenon Alex Lasagna, head of business Greek bailout in July Management, told City A.M. development and investor relations at which failed to stabilise the fund would continue to Algebris, said: “We think after five the Eurozone. invest in media and US years of significant under-perform- “Last year we went banks.

Adrian Martin (l) is now chairman and Michael Findlay (r) becomes deputy chairman RSM Tenon shares crash as CEO exits

▲ ACCOUNTANCY said the firm faces higher banking costs: “The question is what price BY JAMES WATERSON they can renegotiate with Lloyds, ACCOUNTANCY firm RSM Tenon has their sole lender. They currently pay parted ways with its two leading exec- three per cent over LIBOR and we’d utives after issuing a third results expect to see their finance costs rise warning in two months, causing to around 8–10 per cent over LIBOR.” shares to crash 29 per cent. The firm was carrying £66m of The company is suffering from debt at the end of June 2011 and says reduced sales, pressure on margins that it continues to operate within and an enormous debt pile. agreed financial facilities although RSM Tenon say sales in the six “headroom remains limited”. months to 31 December are likely to be 10 per cent down on the same peri- ANALYSIS l RSM Tenon 5.85 od last year, forcing the company into p 23 Jan the red due to high fixed costs. The firm said chairman Bob 8.50 Morton and CEO Andy Raynor had 8.00 both resigned and would step down 7. 5 0 with immediate effect. Analysts said 7.0 0 it is likely they were “pushed”. The company’s future may now 6.50 depend on agreeing new terms on its 6.00 overdraft, due for renewal in July. Shore Capital analyst Owen Jones 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 23 Jan Sun European Partners acquires Bonmarché chain from Peacocks

▲ RETAIL However, 160 stores will be closed, putting around 1,400 jobs at risk. SUN EUROPEAN Partners has Sun European has made a string of acquired Bonmarché, the sister chain retail acquisitions in recent months, of the collapsed fashion retailer including the purchase of wom- Peacocks, via a pre-pack administra- enswear brand Jacques Vert and tion deal that will save around 2,400 sports specialist American Golf. jobs. It is also understood to be among The private equity group has several parties considering a bid for bought 230 of Bonmarché’s stores Peacocks, which was put into admin- from administrators KPMG for a sum istration last week. The deadline for understood to be around £10m. first round bids is 31 January. 6 News CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Bridgepoint Grim outlook as sentiment on brink of remains weak

▲ EUROZONE

EUROPE’S finance leaders met yes- Quilter deal terday as sentiment for the curren- cy bloc they represent lay in the doldrums. ▲ WEALTH MANAGEMENT Stanley was paying lower bonuses for Consumer confidence rose Truckers blocked roads to highlight their opposition to fuel tax rises Picture: REUTERS BY PETER EDWARDS 2011, reflecting a weaker perform- slightly across the Eurozone, ance, as capital markets reacted to though remains at low levels, the PRIVATE equity house Bridgepoint is the European sovereign debt crisis French business climate is deterio- set to buy Quilter, an arm of Morgan and a downgrade of the US bond rat- rating and Spain’s economy is Stanley’s wealth management unit ing. Clients pulled back sharply on Protests spread against expected to contract sharply this which the US bank is offloading for a trading and investment banking year, official data showed yesterday. second time. activity, hurting profits across Wall The European Commission’s con- The buyout group, whose invest- Street. sumer confidence index rose from ments range from Pret a Manger to a Morgan Stanley, like rivals such as Monti’s economic plans minus 21.3 in December to minus series of continental financial and Goldman Sachs, responded to rough 20.6 in January. business services groups, is expected market conditions by cutting staff Confidence remains at its second to pay around £180m for the business and salaries. lowest level since August 2009. after entering into exclusive talks All parties declined to comment ▲ EUROZONE Meanwhile the Italian finance The French business climate with Morgan Stanley. on the future of Quilter. ministry announced companies and deteriorated to 91 last month on Quilter takes private clients pre- ANTI-REFORM protesters blocked individuals concealed €21bn the statistics agency’s index. A pared to invest at least £25,000, while ANALYSIS l Morgan Stanley roads across Italy and taxi drivers (£17.6bn) last year on which they did score of 100 represents the long- international private banking busi- $ 18.21 went on strike yesterday, with more not pay tax. term average. nesses such as Morgan Stanley’s typi- 19.00 23 Jan groups set to rally against Prime Monti has been putting pressure Meanwhile the Bank of Spain cally cater to clients worth millions. 18.50 Minister Mario Monti’s economic on other Eurozone leaders to estimated GDP shrank by 0.3 per It origins go back to 1777 and it has 18.00 reforms in coming weeks. increase the bailout fund, though cent in the final quarter of 2011 £7.6bn under management with Rising fuel taxes were the immedi- German Chancellor Angela Merkel and forecasts a 1.3 per cent fall this offices in Britain, Jersey and Ireland. 17.50 ate cause of the disruption, but rail- yesterday rejected the demands. year. Morgan Stanley first sold Quilter to 17.00 way workers, pharmacists and The Italian PM will meet US Despite the grim news, an € rival Citi in 2006, before coming to 16.50 lawyers are expected to go on strike President Barack Obama next month 8.202bn (£6.86bn) French bill auc- own it again after buying a majority soon in reaction to efforts to open up to discuss efforts to build up the fire- tion went smoothly. stake in Smith Barney from Citi. competition in protected sectors. wall and stop the crisis spreading. Last week it emerged that Morgan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 23 Jan CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Eurozone news 7 Lagarde: Eurobonds will help stop crisis happening again

▲ EUROZONE markets and protect countries like – or a debt redemption fund, which BY TIM WALLACE Italy, she told an audience in Berlin, would see high-debt countries face whilst also calling for further fiscal even stricter guidance on balancing GERMANY and the other strong integration. budgets, as possible solutions. Eurozone countries must take The planned fiscal compact should Meanwhile commissioner Michel responsibility for the debts of the be implemented alongside “some Barnier told a London audience he weaker states, International form of risk sharing” which would always listens to the City, but there Monetary Fund (IMF) boss Christine stop a fiscal crisis in one country ever cannot be special rules for the sector Lagarde announced yesterday. again spreading to others, she said. – countering David Cameron’s calls The bailout fund needs a “substan- Lagarde pointed to Eurobonds – in December for safeguards over reg- tial” boost to sooth panicked bond shared debts, which Germany rejects ulation of the industry.

Jan Kees De Jager, the Netherlands’ finance minister, (centre), watches as Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti (l), is greetd by Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg’s Prime Minister and president of the Eurogroup. Picture: REUTERS Greek bond offer blocked by ministers

four per cent coupon on the new ▲ EUROZONE bonds, which will have a face value BY HARRY BANKS of half that of the bonds they replace, thereby cutting Athens’ EUROZONE finance ministers have debts. Greece says the coupon must rejected an offer made by private be closer to 3.5 per cent. bondholders to help restructure “The ministers have sent the offer Greece’s debts, officials said yester- back for negotiations,” one day, sending negotiators back to the Eurozone official with knowledge of drawing board and raising the the talks said, indicating that the SPREAD BETS, CFDs AND FOREX. threat of default. ministers had effectively come At a meeting in Brussels to discuss down on the Greek government’s Now on DealBook® for iPad. Athens’ debt problems, ministers side. said they could not accept a coupon “The ministers want a lower Now you can trade the world’s markets on your iPad with GFT’s latest software of four per cent on new longer-dated coupon than presented in the offer innovation: DealBook® for iPad. bonds expected to be issued to pri- [from the IIF],” the official said. vate bondholders in exchange for The disagreement increases the With its fl exible, intuitive interface and powerful trading features, DealBook® for iPad is their existing Greek holdings. risk that it may prove impossible to a convenient way to tap into our award-winning trading platform and renowned customer Banks and other private institu- strike a voluntary restructuring deal service. Download it today, you could be trading with GFT in less than fi ve minutes. tions represented by the Institute of between Greece’s creditors and the International Finance (IIF) want a Greek government. When trading CFDs, Forex and Spread bets, it is possible to lose more than your initial deposit. Download today free from the App Store. Search ‘GFT DealBook’. French banks take ECB funding Visit gftuk.com/ipad to fi nd out more.

▲ SPREAD BETS | CFDs | FOREX | GFTUK.COM | FREEPHONE 0800 358 0864 EUROZONE January, up from €63.4bn at 13 December, the data showed. FRENCH banks increased their long- The funds would more or less facebook.com/gftmarketsuk twitter.com/gftuk term borrowing from the European cover 2012 financing needs for top Central Bank (ECB) by €43.6bn banks, according to Deutsche Bank. (£36.4bn) over the last month, The ECB revealed it bought GFT Global Markets Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. © 2012 Global Futures and Forex, Ltd. € All rights reserved. CD03UK.205.112211 Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. according to Bank of France data. 2.243bn of bonds from states like App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. The lenders had borrowed €107bn Italy and Spain last week, down in long-term ECB funds as of 17 from €3.77bn the previous week. 8 Focus on Davos CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Leaders’ fear of political unrest grows

that has shown its biggest drop in trust in government on record. Working together is essential Picture: REX DAVOS 2012 Forty-nine per cent of those asked BY JULIET SAMUEL said they had some trust in govern- ment a year ago, but only 38 per cent WORLD leaders are increasingly fear- said the same this year. WHY PARTNERSHIP ful of major social and political unrest While trust in non-governmental as they gather for a week of debates organisations and business has also and drinks parties in Davos, according gone down, the number of people say- IS KEY TO SECURING to three reports released yesterday. ing they place some faith in media has A majority of 345 designated “risk edged up marginally by one per cent experts” surveyed by the World to 47 per cent – now on level pegging FINANCIAL FUTURE Economic Forum (WEF) expected “a with the status of business. Social major geopolitical disruption” – rang- media accounted for most of the ing from a terrorist attack to political increase. unrest or war – to materialise over the Among different sectors, banks are ANDREW MOSS next year. That compares to just over a singled out for particular distrust: 40 GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE, AVIVA third of those asked at the start of per cent of those asked said they have 2012. some faith in them, down from 56 per “The possibility of a geoeconomic cent in 2011. OOKING ahead to Davos, I know it will be a stimu- disruption, such as sovereign default, A third survey also suggested yester- lating (and demanding) few days. As the chief exec- is to some degree reflected in the mar- day that the degree of political and utive of an international insurance company I am ket, but a major geopolitical disrup- economic uncertainty plaguing lead- Lparticularly conscious of the concerns and anxieties tion clearly is not,” said WEF ers is on the rise. our customers have and the difficulties they face in managing director Lee Howell. A poll by FTI Consulting said that 31 these challenging times. At Aviva we’re here to provide Respondents have highlighted the per cent of business leaders think “the certainty and reassurance to our 44m customers. We low levels of trust in political leaders euro will not last the year”, which are here for people in times of need. We’re here to help as a growing problem. increases to nearly two thirds when them plan and secure their financial futures. The findings coincide with an annu- asked whether at least one country As national budgets remain strained, there is no ques- al Davos “trust barometer” published will have dropped out of the currency tion that insurers will now need to work more closely by Edelman, the public relations firm, by 2013. with government than ever before and play a greater role in providing protection to people. Partnership is key here – neither insurers nor government can solve issues like the pensions challenge on our own. In Davos I will be speaking up for the important role insurance can play in protecting the fabric of society, Gulf widens over Tobin tax whether it is helping to address the issues on long term care, investing in new infrastructure projects or meet- ing people’s financial needs in retirement. As the leading player in the UK’s £1.7 trillion insurance industry, ours is ▲ POLITICS be so costly as to prompt some firms London. a pivotal role. We’d like to see closer, clearer partner- BY JULIET SAMUEL to relocate. “It would be levied on the parties ships and allocation of responsibility between private Some British economists have sug- to the transaction, at their domicile. and public providers develop over the next decade. DIVISIONS over a European Tobin gested that the heavy burden of a Regardless of whether the transac- And this is just the sort of message that should be tax have widened in the run-up to a Tobin tax imposed outside the UK tion is carried out in London, Paris, heard and discussed at Davos. It is something that gathering of leaders in Davos, where could actually benefit Britain. Frankfurt, Amsterdam or anywhere affects the lives of millions of people. We know the EU commissioner Michel Barnier Capital Economics’ Vicky else. No discrimination,” he said. challenges we face in the current environment, but will square up to FSA chairman Lord Redwood said that if France or But such a form of the tax could with positive dialogue and debate between business Turner in a debate on banking this Germany imposed their own tax support the argument for firms to and government, solutions can be found. The next few week. without the rest of Europe: “The move their domicile to London. days will be long and busy, but no doubt they will also Barnier used an address to the potential boost to the UK’s financial The issue is set to come up in dis- be very worthwhile. City at Guildhall yesterday to restate services sector as activity relocates to cussions this week in Davos as regu- his support for a Tobin tax as “feasi- London could be significant.” lators gather to debate systemic risk. ble” and said its impact on financial Barnier suggested yesterday that if Lord Turner will also raise the issue services would be “negligible”. a tax were introduced across the of regulating “shadow banking” and That contrasts to a hardening view whole of Europe, it could affect progress on bank resolution DAVOS TWEETS in London that the tax would drive some transactions passing through regimes.

@Angela_D_Merkel 6.24pm Nearly finished #Davos speech. Thinking of closing with a musical number. Summers calls for Davos Skiing beats #Superangiesmagicfiscalpactwilldothebusiness

@DavosDeville 6.50pm to restore confidence networking Can someone explain why the hell I've just walked into the side of an WORLD ECONOMY igloo? ▲ POLITICS tending lines of thought,” he said. BY JULIET SAMUEL But he added that the onslaught of SKIING is the best reason to go to the post-crisis regulatory reform risks World Economic Forum in Davos, @DavidEnrich 2.48pm “ABNORMALLY high uncertainty” is being counter-productive. according to a plurality of those asked My favorite moment at #Davos 2011: Lagarde denies the main factor driving financial “This is not the right time to add by CNBC. Thirty per cent of those existence of crisis. "The #euro zone has turned a cor- markets at the moment, according to unnecessarily to their worries. Except responding to an online poll highlight- ner" former US Treasury secretary Larry where the rationale is both urgent ed the winter sport as the main draw, Summers. and compelling, new regulations that while 27 per cent said that “network- He said that the debate at Davos on burden investment should be avoid- ing” is the best selling point. how to overcome the problem risks ed.” Just 14 per cent suggested that @Clare_OC 3.02pm becoming polarised between econo- But Summers, who is served as “debate and discussion” is the top I hear from his assistant that @RichardBranson is skip- mists and business leaders, who want Treasury chief and an economic attraction, while 12 per cent answer- ping Davos this year. Where art tho, Sir Richard? to see either government stimulus or adviser to President Barack Obama, ing that “deal-making” is the forum’s private-sector growth. added that “governments have the raison d’etre. Few think it is restful, “The right current approach best chance of creating economic with R&R (rest & recuperation) scoring involves borrowing from both con- recovery”. six per cent. In association CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 9 with Focus on Davos

PROTESTERS in Davos have built an “igloo village”, above, to host the “Occupy Davos” anti-capitalist campaign. World leaders will gath- er to discuss the growing threat of political unrest with German Chancellor Angela Merkel (left, top) kicking off the forum today. Klaus Schwab (left, bot- tom), founder of the World Economic Forum, warned yesterday that world lead- ers are suffering from “burnout” as a result of the ongoing crisis.

DAVOS DIARY JULIET SAMUEL EVENTS

A CERTAIN economics reporter had We hear the bank has been mak- bucks. I told her I’d wonder where some unwelcome company for the ing efforts to stamp out a particular the rest of my money went.” mountainous bus ride up to the annoyance: the Twitter feed known As for pick-up tips, bluffing is key: mountain retreat yesterday, report- as “GSElevator” that purports to “Spent last night pouring cham- ing that he had heard some youth- publish missives from Goldmanites pagne, feeding her dessert, & ful attendees on their way to the themselves. Davos Diary telling stories of my trip to forum suggesting “the creation of a has it on good authority Bhutan. I’ve never been spermbank” to sell the seed of that at least some senior to Bhutan.” promising young leaders. execs think the tweets Though some Still, as public relations slip-ups have a scary ring seem to have trouble go, Davos youth should count them- of authenticity. keeping finance out of the Picture: REUTERS selves lucky that there is no perma- A choice offering: bedroom: “1: My [girlfriend[ nent Twitter stream devoted to “We’re all God’s children. Some of asked me if backwardation is a sexu- their more salubrious comments. us just have a higher allowance.” al thing. 2: There's a keeper.” WELCOME TO DAVOS l The official blog is at: Not so for the bank everyone loves Not to mention: “Some chick asked Whoever says bankers aren’t http://www.forumblog.org/ to hate, Goldman Sachs. me what I would do with 10m charming fellows? l The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2011 opens today and runs until l The official Twitter feed is @Davos Sunday 30 January. #WEF.

l Today, delegates will be l The Open Forum Davos also arriving at the Swiss moun- runs in parallel to the World tain town of Davos, the Economic Forum, from 27- Protesters build igloo village highest city in Europe, 29 January. for the conference. Registration takes l This year’s Open

▲ world,” says David Roth, “Camp Igloo” likely to sees the camp by the train sta- place throughout the Forum theme is POLITICS organiser and head of the Swiss cen- tion, many preferring to travel by pri- afternoon. “Recognition, Discussion BY HARRY BANKS tre-left’s youth wing. vate jet or helicopter from Zurich. A and Change”. Unlike the “The economic and financial con- one-way trip costs SwFr5,100 accord- l The programme exclusive World Economic THE OCCUPY movement, which went centration of power in a small, privi- ing to a WEF handout. begins at 5.30pm - 7pm Forum, this is open to the global after protests against Wall leged minority leads to a dictatorship Police arrested two men suspected UK time, with a welcome general public. Events will not Street last year, is camping in igloos to over the rest of us. The motto ‘one per- of scrawling “SMASH WEF” on the reception in the Congress be streamed, but videos will be bring its argument with the super- son, one vote’ is no longer valid, but walls of the Swiss National Bank in Centre. posted on YouTube after the event. rich “one per cent” to Davos. ‘one dollar, one vote’. We want to Zurich last week. They also stopped an There is also an official Twitter feed: It is a reminder to the leaders of change that.” unauthorised anti-WEF demonstra- l Delegates who are in Davos for the first @OpenForumDavos #WEF #OFD. finance and industry at the World Roth’s group has set up camp in tion in the capital Berne on Saturday. time will have a newcomers gathering in Economic Forum of the resentment sub-zero temperatures and snow to In its Global Risk Report earlier this the Congress Centre from 7pm - 8pm UK l On Thursday 27 January, the first Open that is leading to questions about the “occupy” the WEF in a car park just month, the WEF showed it is well time. Forum event is a discussion of the future direction of capitalism. outside the security cordon around aware of the Zeitgeist, warning that a Eurozone, “Euro Grounding?”, with panel- “At meetings the rest of society is the meeting that has become a backlash against rising inequality l Events can be watched live online: lists including economist Nouriel Roubini excluded from, this powerful ‘one per byword for globalisation. risks derailing the advance of globali- http://www.livestream.com/worldeco- and Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of cent’ negotiates and decides about the He is seeking dialogue with the sation and threatens growth world- nomicforum the European Central Bank. The event fate of the other 99 percent of this WEF but few of the 2,000 visitors are wide. runs from 11.30am - 1pm UK time. 10 News CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Tips to take away from the Ruspetro flotation

bund IPO market off the ground. ments in the process that helped get The first period ahead of that would have valued the group at It’s the first main market listing it through to the finishing point. Christmas involved management $550m new money, Hume-Kendall of the year and it follows a period They can be broadly defined as meeting between 15 and 20 of the led the charge to get investors to during which only the most coura- timetable, pricing and publicity (or key institutions. sign up at a more realistic price geous or crazy banker would con- being sparing with it). When it became clear that the between $425-450m. “This market template taking anything but the The important thing about the soft market and the imminence to isn’t for the weak-hearted,” he told most established company, such as timetable in this instance is that the the Christmas break made pricing me, explaining how he managed to Glencore, to market. bankers eschewed the conventional impossible, the process was effec- get the deal covered in one day. INSIDE TRACK So what lessons can be learnt timescale, known as two plus two, in tively put on hold until the new All this was achieved with very lit- from the deal, which continues to which they traditionally spend two year. tle publicity. Says Krens, who DAVID HELLIER trade just slightly below issue price weeks in pre-marketing and follow Then, with the client putting the worked on the deal at Mirabaud: but closely enough not to dissuade this by two weeks of a roadshow pressure on, Merrill’s Rupert Hume- “The low key approach is definitely HE successful flotation of too many others from following in with a firm end date. Kendall and Mirabaud’s Peter Krens the best unless you are selling a well- Ruspetro, the Russian oil and its footsteps? Here they worked on the deal for took control of institutional distri- known retail brand.” gas explorer, is being looked Advisers, headed by Bank of a period of around eight weeks, bution. Expect some of these lessons to be Ton by many in the City as an America Merrill Lynch, say that although this straddled the two Whereas Mirabaud Securities learned in future deals. opportunity to finally get a mori- there were broadly three key ele- week Christmas holiday. made a valiant effort to sell a deal [email protected] Digital sector saves day for music market ▲ TECHNOLOGY services from 23 to 58 countries. BY LAUREN DAVIDSON Edgar Berger, chief executive of International at Sony Music, said: TECHNOLOGICAL advancement is “There is now a positive outlook on the changing the face of the music indus- music industry – we are moving from try for good despite getting a bad press a headwind to a tailwind. recently over piracy, top record label “The internet is a blessing for the executives declared yesterday. record industry, and the digital era has Digital music revenues grew changed the way the music busi- eight per cent in 2011 to $5.2bn ness operates.” (£3.3bn), crossing the $5bn While over a quarter of mark for the first time, internet users access illegal according to the sites on a monthly basis, International Federation of music industry representa- the Phonographic Industry. tives feel confident that The digital sector account- 2012 will see piracy fur- ed for almost a third of the ther stifled, following in $16.2bn total revenue the footsteps of last from across the recorded week’s swoop on music market, which Megaupload.com. was down three per Rob Wells, presi- cent on the previous dent of Universal year in the slowest rate Music’s global digi- of decline since 2004. tal business, said: The year which saw “My crystal ball is Adele release the best-sell- telling me that 2012 ing digital album of all time will be quite a signifi- in the US also witnessed cant year in the history the spread of digital music of the music industry.”

NEWS | IN BRIEF

Tube to get wi-fi before Games AlixPartners, will replace Dominic London Underground passengers will be DiNapoli, the FTI Consulting employee able to use wi-fi at 120 stations in time who was chosen just last week. The firm for the Olympics, a Transport for London said there was no "disagreement or dif- boss has said. TfL oversaw a successful ference of opinion" with the previous trial at Charing Cross last year, but there restructuring officer but provided no fur- were fears of delays after telecoms firm ther explanation for the change. Huawei pulled out of a deal to provide the network. But a new provider will be Texas Instruments beats Street unveiled in spring, “leaving plenty of time Texas Instruments last night reported for this to be delivered to customers in higher-than-expected fourth-quarter rev- time for the 2012 Games”, TfL director of enue as demand for its chips improved strategy Gareth Powell said in a state- more quickly than it had forecast. ment. The US company, which makes chips for everything from consumer electronics to Kodak replaces restructuring boss industrial equipment, reported a profit of Eastman Kodak replaced its chief $298m (£191m), down by two-thirds on restructuring officer yesterday, just a a year ago. Revenue fell three per cent to handful of days after it filed for bank- $3.42bn, beating analyst forecasts of ruptcy protection. James Mesterharm, $3.25bn. Texas Instruments had warned who works for the consultancy firm last month that chip demand was weak.

12 News CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Thomas Cook Ocado shares Retail guru leaves the shares down as firm he helped to float bookings drop

fall as finance ▲ RETAIL

Bracey, 44, was part of the Ocado ▲ BY RAYMOND DOHERTY team that proposed its controver- LEISURE sial flotation at 180p in July 2010, ANDREW Bracey, who is leaving the and he intends to keep a close eye THOMAS Cook’s shares took a batter- chief resigns world of online grocery shopping to on the firm’s progress. ing yesterday after it emerged that join recruiter Michael Page, has He bought into the shares heavi- its summer bookings by British cus- been Ocado’s chief financial officer ly in the weeks after the flotation in tomers were sharply lower in early since November 2009. 2010, accumulating much of his January. ▲ RETAIL a profit warning last month. Prior to Ocado, he was head of holding of 820,000 at 150p. Bracey The news further dents confi- BY KASMIRA JEFFORD However, Bracey defended his consumer and retail investment said he plans to dence in the embattled holiday oper- move, saying the decision was unre- banking at Jefferies International, keep his share ator after a string of profit warnings OCADO saw its shares fall yesterday lated to the company’s performance. with an 18-year career in invest- holding – and and a funding crunch. after the online grocer announced “I am certain that Ocado will ment banking and private equity added that Reports yesterday claimed Thomas that Andrew Bracey, its chief finan- demonstrate what we all believe – behind him. Ocado can look Cook’s sales had fallen by 33 per cent cial officer, has quit to join the that it is a business with great After studying at the University forward to “an in the two weeks to 13 January, cit- recruiting agency Michael Page as its prospects and an exciting growth tra- of East Anglia and taking an MA in exciting growth ing a leisure industry monitor finance director. jectory,” he said. history of architecture at trajectory” shared by tour operators to track Bracey, who joined Ocado just 18 The group said it had started a for- Magdalene College, Cambridge, without him. bookings. months ago ahead of its controversial mal search process to find a successor Bracey began his career at UBS in Shares in the group, which have flotation in 2010, will step down in and also announced that co-founder 1991. At the bank, he ran the fallen by over 90 per cent in the last April after completing the group’s Jason Gissing will take up the new retail team in corporate year, fell a further five per cent. year end audit and annual report. role of commercial director, taking finance and advised several Sources close to Thomas Cook con- The surprise move has prompted charge of Ocado’s retail activities. retail companies including firmed that sales had fallen but said analysts to ask whether this is further Dairy Farm and Somerfield. it was down to a planned cut in holi- evidence that Ocado will struggle to ANALYSIS l Ocado Bracey spent three years days on sale rather than a collapse of compete in the long-term against 85.60 at Credit Suisse as manag- confidence in the brand. p industry rivals like Tesco. 100 23 Jan ing director in the invest- Thomas Cook said it last reported Clive Black, analyst at Shore Capital 95 ment banking division, UK bookings on 14 December, show- said: “Whilst only our view, that Mr before joining Barclays ing it went into January with an Bracey has decided to leave Ocado, 90 Capital in 2003. As man- order book for summer 2012 that billed as the next big thing by some, 85 aging director, principal was well ahead of the wider market. speaks volumes.” 80 investments, he under- Charles Stanley analyst Douglas Ocado is yet to report an annual took a number of signifi- McNeill said the latest figures were a pre-tax profit. Capacity constraints at 75 cant investments, concern, but investors should not its distribution centre in Hatfield including Alliance Boots. ANDREW BRACEY read too much into a two-week book- forced the troubled company to issue 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 23 Jan ing period.

Asda plans £500m expansion NEWS | IN BRIEF Associated Press chief to leave online TV and movie streaming. While Global news network Associated Press the report shows that the majority of (AP) announced yesterday that Tom respondents prefer traditional media ▲ RETAIL outlets employees would be given the Curley, president and chief executive since such as physical books and scheduled BY RAYMOND DOHERTY The new depots, at Rochdale, chance to take City and Guilds 2003, will step down this year. Curley TV, smartphone and tablet ownership Falkirk and South Elmsall in apprenticeships. boosted AP’s move into digital space by continues to rise. ASDA has announced it will create Yorkshire, will add capacity to the Shore Capital analyst Clive Black overseeing the creation of a digital data- 5,000 new jobs in 2012 by opening 25 firms logistics network so it can meet said the news of more jobs “is most base featuring AP content available in Revenues rise at bakery group new stores and three depots across planned growth targets. certainly welcome news for a broadly every format. Curley will continue in his Bakery group Finsbury Food yesterday the UK. Asda, which has pledged to be 10 stagnating economy”. Prime Minister role until a successor is in place to ensure announced its total revenues boomed in Britain’s second largest supermar- per cent cheaper than its rivals amid David Cameron also welcomed the a smooth transition. the first half of the financial year, passing ket chain has earmarked £500m for a supermarket price war, said half expansion. £102m for the first time in its history. the investment that will also expand the 30,000 staff it took on last year Asda has not yet updated the mar- Digital consumerism on the up Growth occurred across all the company and refurbish 43 of its existing stores. had gone to young people. ket on its Christmas trading. Rival Almost two thirds of consumers are will- sectors, with the UK cake division up 10 The 25 new shops will add over The Wal-Mart owned chain, which Tesco posted disappointing results ing to pay to stream films online accord- per cent and “free from” sales increasing 600,000 square feet of net selling currently employs more than last week, announcing its first profit ing to the latest media and eight per cent. However, Finsbury’s oper- space, through superstores, small for- 180,000 people and runs 528 stores in warning for 20 years after its price entertainment survey from KPMG, ating margin was lower than the same mat supermarkets and Asda Living the UK, also pledged that eligible cuts failed to pay off. which brings to light a breakthrough for period last year due to increases in costs. CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 News 13

Iain Duncan Audit office: Smith said the benefits cap would Apache inks not increase child back to work poverty $2.8bn deal scheme flawed ▲ EMPLOYMENT

CITY VIEWS: DO YOU SUPPORT THE PROPOSED CAP THE GOVERNMENT’S new programme to get people back into employment for Cordillera ON BENEFITS? Interviews by Phoebe Torrance & Raymond Doherty has been rushed and is based on overly optimistic expectations, the National Audit Office (NAO) said this morning. ▲ MARTIN WALLACE | MONTAGU EVANS M&A The site holds tight gas and natural gas The quick one-year turnaround of BY HARRY BANKS liquids trapped in its sandstone. the new Work Programme “has had “Because 80 per cent of [Cordillera’s] “The concept of having a cap that equates to less benefits”, the NAO said, yet warned OIL and gas producer Apache is set to revenue comes from liquid hydrocar- that no pilot was conducted, and that buy privately held Cordillera Energy bons production, this transaction pro- than the average household net income is sound. the IT system is lagging behind. Partners III for $2.85bn (£1.8bn) in cash vides compelling economics at current Looking for work should be the more attractive “The Department [for Work and and stock, expanding its holdings in commodity prices,” Apache chief exec- Pensions] needs to ensure that one of the most lucrative emerging oil utive Steven Farris said in a statement. option financially.” improvements to the IT system are and gas fields in the United States. As technological advances have delivered on schedule,” the NAO It is the largest US deal so far in made drilling for gas and oil possible NICKLAS LORENTZSON | LORENTZSON CONSULTANTS warned. “In the meantime, there is an 2012, and the second-largest deal in the Granite Wash and other uncon- increased risk of fraud and error going worldwide. ventional opportunities like shale for- undetected.” Cordillera is owned by private equi- mations, energy companies have “I agree that a lower cap should be implemented but child The speedy start of the scheme – ty firm EnCap Investments and other poured billions of dollars to buy North benefit should be calculated separately for large families which will supersede nearly all of the investors, who will receive about American acreage with access to those who can’t cope but are actively seeking work.” current “welfare to work” pro- $2.25bn in cash and $600m of Apache resources. grammes – could also cause problems common stock for the assets. But with natural gas prices plung- for businesses. The deal will double Apache’s ing, they have focused on assets that “While the scale of ambition and acreage in the energy-rich Anadarko produce more oil and natural gas liq- PAUL DREWETT | ESTAFET CONSULTANCY desire to get things moving should be basin, a shale formation in western uids, which trade at higher prices than applauded,” the CBI commented this Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle in so-called dry natural gas. morning, “we agree that the pace at which the company has been drilling Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett said “I think £26,000 per household is too low, especially which the programme was rolled out for more than 50 years. that the acquired acreage could pro- for London. Ideally it would be set on a case by case posed a number of challenges to both Apache, which agreed to buy $7bn vide Apache with drilling opportuni- providers and the government.” worth of assets from BP in 2010, is par- ties for years, if not decades. basis, though that would be very difficult.” The DWP claims that 40 per cent of ticularly interested in Cordillera’s He estimated in a research note that largest group of job seekers in the acreage in the Granite Wash geological Apache was paying around $11,200 an In association with RateSetter: A better way to Save and Borrow, Peer to Peer Programme will get jobs, yet the NAO formation within the Anadarko basin. acre for the deal. www.RateSetter.com Customer Phoneline: 08442490115 puts the figure at 26 per cent.

Mortgage lending edges up NEWS | IN BRIEF Workers proud of private sector terday. FTSE 350 deficits, recorded under Private sector employees remain proud accounting rule IAS19, jumped to £67bn to work at commercial firms and are like- in 2011, compared to £43bn at the start ▲ HOUSING “Many tenants are either finding it “Remortgaging has held up nicely, ly to believe their companies have better of the year. Actuarial firm Hymans BY JULIAN HARRIS hard to make that leap to making and reflects the competitive deals leadership than in the public sector, a Robertson, which compiled the data, said their first purchase or simply don’t offered by lenders in the autumn survey reveals today. The results come the results masked an even more severe MORTGAGE lending rose at the end feel confident enough to move which created good incentive to despite seven in 10 staff, surveyed by deterioration in companies’ positions. of last year compared to 12 months against a backdrop of increasing switch to better rates.” recruitment agents Hays, saying that earlier, yet levels remain relatively unemployment and bad news contin- Gross lending was 12 per cent high- stress levels have worsened compared to Bank to consider more stimulus deflated. ually coming from the Eurozone,” er in December than a year prior. Yet one year ago. Nonetheless, 54 per cent The Bank of England is right to weigh up Gross mortgage lending in quarter explained Legal & General’s Ben loans for mortgages in the final three think they have better leadership than in yet another tranche of asset-purchases four of 2011 reached £37.2bn – up on Thompson. months of the year were lower than the public sector, while only 13 per cent when it meets in February, its arch-dove £33.6bn in the final quarter of 2010. However, Thompson suggested that in the third quarter of 2011. of public sector workers believe they committee member Adam Posen said last Yet total loans are significantly the market would pick up as some The Council of Mortgage Lenders have better leadership. night. “The committee is right to consid- lower than before the credit crunch. point in the future. “There is a lot of (CML), which compiled the data, er – as we will be doing in a few weeks – Gross mortgage lending last year pent up demand,” he said, “and soon- talked down yesterday’s figures, say- FTSE 350 pension deficits rise whether we need to do more QE,” he said, came to nearly £140bn, compared to er or later confidence will return and ing the rise was “from low [compara- Large companies’ pensions deficits rose while also predicting that the UK would £362.7bn in 2007. people will find a way to move. tive] levels”. sharply last year, fresh data showed yes- return to its pre-crash trend growth. 14 EDITED BY CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 HARRIET DENNYS Got A Story? Email [email protected] The Capitalist Follow The Capitalist on Twitter: @dennysharriet AURUM FUNDS CHIEF FLIES OUT TO OVERSEE ARK’S AFRICAN LAUNCH

HEDGE FUND manager Kevin the Department for International Gundle, the chief executive of Aurum Development matched the charity’s Funds, has been away from his desk $1.6m vaccines pledge, the founda- since last Thursday. tion run by Microsoft founder Bill He was in Zambia, The Capitalist Gates and his wife Melinda donated hears, where as a founding trustee of $3.8m, and GSK committed to supply- Absolute Return for Kids (Ark), the ing 84,000 vaccines. charity set up by the philanthropist Ark has since been working on financiers Ian Wace and Arki Busson, preparatory health and education he has been busy dispensing, not gen- work to “lay the foundations” of its erating, City profits. programme to vaccinate 750,000 chil- Gundle, who flew back from sub- dren – but yesterday, said Gundle in Saharan Africa yesterday afternoon, an email to the global board, was spent that morning in the town of “only the beginning”. Kalikiliki in Lusaka Province, where “We have the opportunity to do so he oversaw the first vaccination in much more,” he wrote to Wace, the charity’s programme to combat Busson and his seven fellow founding infant mortality caused by the trustees, who include Jennifer Moses, Rotavirus, run in partnership with the ex-Goldman investment banker Zambia’s Centre for Infectious and special adviser to Gordon Brown, Disease Research. and Anthony Williams, head of the A family from Lusaka Province Ark committed $5.7m towards the specialist solar infrastructure asset who yesterday visited the Ark three-year partnership after its annu- manager Bluefield Partners. “In vaccination clinic al fundraising gala last June, when Zambia I saw Ark at its best, but that

won’t stop me from pushing us to do more and better.” MATCH OF THE DAY ALSO ON the Ark global board is The Cass MBA Michael Platt, the founder of the $30bn hedge fund BlueCrest Capital, which yesterday hosted a chess tour- nament in Geneva. Among the players was Icap’s options and futures trader Ryad Belabdelouahab, a former profession- al chess player, who challenged the seven-times world chess champion Anatoly Karpov following matches with the game’s world number two Vladimir Kramnik and grand masters Alexander Cherniaev and Gilles come along. If it’s good enough for Miralles. Rod Stewart and his “exclusive The Cass MBA In the last update from Geneva last guests”, whom Harriman recently night, Belabdelouahab and Karpov – entertained at the O2, then it’s good who drew on their last meeting in enough for his old Credit Suisse col- December – were still deep in play. leagues – even if one of them has since moved on to run the FSA… Leadership series CITY COMEBACK THEN-CHIEF executive Hector Sants ASSET STRIPPERS wanted to keep him, but John IF YOU see Genesis Asset Management’s 26th January 2012 Harriman quit Credit Suisse First new hire Chris Ellyatt holding a gun to Boston of his own accord eight years the head of his former boss Martin ago for a “change of scene”: returning Gilbert of Aberdeen Asset Management to a life as a professional musician, on 3 February, don’t be too alarmed. after spending his formative years as The armed raid on Ellyatt’s old head chorister at Westminster employer Aberdeen Asset Cathedral Choir and a soloist for the Management is a water pistol hold-up Royal Opera Group. to collect all the fund managers’ spare And tomorrow night, the former change to support Bowel & Cancer banking adviser (above right) is making Research and EveryChild. a comeback to Canary Wharf to top the “For them it is just loose change bill with his jazz band Heads South at gathering dust on their desks; for us Boisdale, within earshot of his old it is a few hours of research,” says the offices at 1 Cabot Square. cancer charity’s Deborah Gilbert (no Harriman, who leads the Cuban relation to Martin), who is planning quintet as its composer and pianist, is a similar raid on the banks of Canary hoping the prospect of “mostly origi- Wharf in March. Ellyatt, you will be nal music” will persuade several of his pleased to hear, “has some firms in former senior associates in the City to mind”.

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CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 News 17 Only drastic change can save RIM now FEW in the telecoms industry will handsets such as the Apple iPhone quickly dwindled mourn the departure of Jim Balsillie and Samsung Galaxy. Appointing a new management and Mike Lazaridis. As co-chairmen Last year, the firm lurched from will not solve the problem in and of and co-CEOs of BlackBerry maker disaster to disaster. Millions of users itself. New boss Thorsten Heins, who RIM, the pair wielded far too much were unable to access their emails is moving up from the chief operat- power over the troubled handset for three days, after a blackout ing officer’s post, yesterday said the maker. downed the firm’s servers. The company was not in need of “drastic It was an open secret that the chief PlayBook tablet – billed as an iPad change”. He couldn’t be more executives of the big network opera- killer – was the dampest squib imagi- wrong. Mike Lazaridis (left) tors found it incredibly hard to do nable, and RIM was forced to take a First, RIM should streamline the and Jim Balsillie business with them. For years now, charge of $485m after writing off ridiculously large BlackBerry range, stepped down as RIM they have been telling the company almost the entire value of its invento- and pursue a relentless focus on win- co-chiefs yesterday that BlackBerrys were not up to ry. Its share price lost three quarters ning back the high-margin business scratch when compared to rival of its value as its market share customers that matter most. 10 New In January, we called on Lazaridis and Balsillie to BOTTOMLINE quit as soon as possible Change at top can’t come too soonor of e the rently an independent direct Analysis by David Crow Compared to handsets lik RIM, to take over the chairmanship. If ew tears shed in the he ind a new chief THERE will be f e Samsung Galaxy or Apple iPhone, t she does, she should f orld if RIM’s Mik rys is awful. telecoms w t build quality of BlackBer hbkexecutive to replace Lazaridis and Shares slump on shake-up at BlackBerry

▲ TECHNOLOGY total of 2,000 jobs – in July. BY LAUREN DAVIDSON The company then suffered embar- rassment when the BlackBerry service BLACKBERRY maker Research in blacked out for four days in October. Motion (RIM) saw its shares plunge Heins said: “RIM has undergone and over seven per cent to C$15.98 in yes- is still completing a major transforma- terday’s trading after the mobile tion, having gone over the last ten phone brand announced a change in years from annual revenues of leadership late on Sunday. C$294m to just under C$20bn. Thorsten Heins took to the throne “Like all companies of that scale, yesterday, replacing co-chief executives you hit a few bumps in the road here Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie, who and there, but it is key that we learn have nurtured the company since its from those mistakes.” birth in 1984. The new BlackBerry boss said the Balsillie continues to sit on RIM’s company would focus on its execution board while Lazaridis was appointed process and be “more marketing driv- to vice-chair. en and consumer oriented”. After racking up 20 years at The company is looking for a new Siemens, Heins joined RIM as senior chief marketer and is expected to vice president for hardware engineer- release several new products this year. ing in December 2007 before being promoted to chief operating officer for ANALYSIS l Research In Motion product and sales in August. Investors have been calling on the 18.25 CAD 15.67 23 Jan tech giant to reassess its management 18.00 after a turbulent few years, which have 17.75 seen company shares drop to a frac- 17.50 tion of the almost C$150 high they 17.25 reached in mid-2008. 17.00 RIM’s quarterly revenues dropped 16.75 for the first time in nine years in early 16.50 2011, prompting the company to axe over ten per cent of its work force – a 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan TIME LINE | RESEARCH IN MOTION

February 1985 Mike Lazaridis founds a tech June 2010 RIM acquires QNX, the operat- start-up in Ontario, Canada. ing system now used in the PlayBook, for C$200m. 1992 Jim Balsillie joins RIM as co-chief executive, investing $250,000. April 2011 RIM launches the PlayBook tablet, which fails to impress critics. 1995 Working Ventures Canadian Fund invests C$5m in developing RIM’s two-way 16 June 2011 RIM’s quarterly revenue pager. declines for the first time in almost a decade.

October 1997 RIM floats on the Toronto 10-13 October 2011 Due to a global RIM Stock Exchange, raising over $115m. service outage, millions of BlackBerry users are stranded without basic smartphone 1999 The BlackBerry 850 launches in functions. Germany and company shares are listed on Nasdaq, raising another $250m. 29 November 2011 RIM offers to manage rival devices in recognition of its waning 2003 The first BlackBerry smartphone is share of the corporate market. released. 15 December 2011 Co-chief executives October 2007 BlackBerry reaches 10m Lazaridis and Balsillie agree to receive a users. salary of $1 each. 18 News CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Halliburton says disruptions could hit earnings this year

▲ ENERGY ter profit and gave a fairly upbeat quarter, Halliburton said. outlook for 2012, but investors Chief executive Dave Lesar, BY HARRY BANKS remain worried about what wider addressing a persistent concern HALLIBURTON yesterday warned US drilling trends will mean for the that has weighed on Halliburton that its response to a deep slump in US market leader. shares, said the idea that North US natural gas prices would cause Costs are rising and the industry American profit margins would col- disruptions that will pinch first- is shifting away from dry gas lapse this year was “ridiculous”. quarter earnings, sending its shares toward oil and natural gas liquids Overall, Halliburton’s fourth- falling. resources. quarter profit rose to $907m The world’s second-largest oil- Eight of its hydraulic fracturing – (£582m) from $607m a year ago. field services company posted a or fracking – crews would complete Revenue rose 38 per cent to Fracking plants are being shifted towards liquids-rich basins Picture: Getty higher-than-expected fourth-quar- moves to liquids-rich basins this $7.1bn. NEWS | IN BRIEF

Pan American buys Minefinders Afren to ramp up 2012 output Pan American Silver said it will buy Afren’s shares fell more than five per Canadian precious metals miner cent yesterday, despite the firm forecast- Minefinders for about C$1.5bn (£955m) ing a rise in average output to 42,000- to boost production from Mexico and cut 46,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day output costs. Vancouver-based this year – up from 19,200 boepd in Minefinders owns and operates the 2011. It said yesterday the commission- multi-million ounce Dolores gold and sil- ing and ramp up of all 14 production ver mine in northern Mexico. The offer of wells associated with the initial phases of C$15.60 per share isa premium of 36 per the Ebok field development had been cent to Minefinders’ Friday closing price. successfully completed.

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NEWS | IN BRIEF

UK Coal goes back into the black Cairn joined UK Coal returned to profit last year, and agreed land sales worth £18m, the company said yesterday. The company said in a trading update for the year ending 31 December that it had contin- ued to make progress on the group’s by Statoil in three year strategic recovery plan, which was launched in May last year. In a statement it said: “In 2011, UK Coal was restored to profitability and the board now anticipates operating Sir Bill Gammell has led Cairn into the FTSE 100 profit for the full year to be in line with Arctic hunt expectations, with full year tonnage of ANALYST VIEWS: IS CAIRN’S STATOIL DEAL A 7.5m tonnes.” ▲ ENERGY up a new multi-billion oil province Gulf Keystone reports best well Interviews by John Dunne BY JOHN DUNNE off the coast of Greenland, with SHREWD MOVE TO REDUCE RISK? Oil company Gulf Keystone yesterday Exxon Mobil and Shell watching said its The Shaikan-4 well, located in CAIRN Energy yesterday announced Cairn’s drilling campaign closely. the Kurdistan region of Iraq, achieved a deal that will see Norwegian giant Statoil has also set its sights on SANJEEV BAHL | NUMIS a flow rate of 563 barrels of oil per Statoil share the costs of its Arctic expanding its operations in Alaska, day and 3.65m standard cubic feet per exploration. Greenland and Russia. day of gas in the first well test. Two The area is a notoriously difficult Neither company would reveal the Statoil brings credibility to the project, but uncertainty remains on how well tests in the Triassic have been and expensive place to drill, with the financial details of the tie-up. Oil con- much cash Cairn is to throw at further high risk/reward exploration. completed to date, with five more inhospitable climate hiking costs. sultancy Wood Mackenzie has said “ planned, and the firm said the well Statoil has acquired a 30.6 per cent Greenland could have reserves of could be its best yet. stake in one of Cairn’s exploration 20bn barrels of oil. STUART JOYNER | INVESTEC ” licences off the coast of Greenland. Petrobras picks new chief exec The announcement was well received ANALYSIS l Cairn Energy 292.20 Petrobras plans to name engineer Maria by investors in Edinburgh-based 23 Jan das Graças Foster as chief executive, 300.00 p This is a good move for Cairn, as it reduces their risk in Greenland and Cairn, with trading yesterday starting is a positive tie-up. Statoil is solid and will provide a fresh set of eyes. promoting a respected technocrat from as one of the FTSE 100’s highest 297.50 the Brazilian oil giant's ranks to turn climbers before closing up 0.55 per 295.00 “ around its lacklustre performance in cent. 292.50 recent years. Foster, the firm’s natural KEITH BOWMAN | HARGREAVES LANSDOWN Cairn, founded by Scottish rugby 290.00 ” gas and power director, would be the first woman to run Petrobras if the international Sir Bill Gammell, has 287.50 spent a $1.2bn (£770m) in the Arctic board approves her promotion on 9 over the past two years but has so far 285.00 The risk/reward balance is still seen as favourable, with market consensus February. A native of a poor Rio de failed to find commercial quantities opinion continuing to say ‘buy’. Statoil has good knowledge of the area. Janeiro suburb, Foster started at the of oil. The oil industry hopes to open 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 23 Jan “ ” company as an intern in 1978. BEST OF THE BROKERS To appear in Best of the Brokers email your research to [email protected]

ANALYSIS l Weir Group 1,884.00 ANALYSIS l IMI PLC 855.00 ANALYSIS l Glencore International 435.85 23 Jan 23 Jan 23 Jan 900 p p p 460 2,100 850 440 2,000 800 420 1,900 750 400 1,800 700 380 1,700

Nov Dec Jan Nov Dec Jan Nov Dec Jan WEIR GROUP IMI GLENCORE JP Morgan Cazenove has downgraded the engineering group from “over- UBS downgrades the industrial engineer from “buy” to “neutral”, after Citi rates the global commodities trader as a “buy” with a target price of weight” to “neutral”, and says it expects uncertainty about near-term admitting it “can’t get excited” over growth prospects at the group. The 550p, and says it is likely to be the winner in the mining sector over the next development in demand for fracking equipment to weigh on its share price. broker is finding it difficult to remain bullish on the stock after weak third five years. The brokers sees Glencore as delivering volume growth through its The company has been in the top three share price performers over the last quarter growth, and says the four per cent organic growth reported will industrial assets, and says it is likely to be more insulated from rising costs two years. The broker expects continued growth this year, with earnings deteriorate further in 2012. UBS leaves its estimates unchanged, but sees and currency fluctuations that its peers. The broker also notes that Glencore’s per share set to rise by 18 per cent, and maintains a target price of 2,300p. modest downside risk, and lowers its target price from 950p to 900p. marketing business is a margin business that benefits from higher prices. 20 News CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012

CITY MOVES | WHO’S SWITCHING JOBS Edited by Harriet Dennys in association with

cer and retail operations director Riley specialises in M&A transactions, chief investment officer. Prior to that, Avoca Capital respectively. Giffin joins from representing clients including Nestlé, he founded Greentrees Partners as a Avoca Capital, the European credit investment Waterstones, where he was finance BMW, Corus Steel and HVB. joint venture with Collins Stewart. manager with €6bn assets under management, director, and is the former group finan- has strengthened its sales and marketing capa- cial controller for HMV Group. Jordan VTB Capital MetLife bilities by appointing Rachel Black as head of most recently worked at Pets at Home, The Russian investment bank has The life and pensions group has capital raising for the credit hedge fund team, where he was head of retail operations. hired Makram Abboud as CEO, Middle appointed Stephanie Baillie as based in the London office. Black joins from East & Africa and co-head of the employee benefits director to lead the Concerto Asset Management, where she was McKinney Rogers international multi-product origina- expansion of its UK employee benefits head of marketing and business development. The business execution firm has tion and distribution group. Abboud business. Baillie joins from Friends Black has also worked at Deutsche Bank, where appointed John Stoner as a senior was previously head of emerging mar- Life, where she held the role of head she led the credit hedge fund sales desk, and at partner. Previously Stoner worked at kets at Nomura Holdings, following of group protection. JP Morgan, where she started her career. McKinsey & Company, where he was roles at UBS and Merrill Lynch. a leader in the operations and public M&G Investments Caledonia Investments at Lombard Odier, JP Morgan Asset sector practices. Towers Watson Phil Cliff, a former European equity Stuart Cox has been hired as an Management and Hermes. David Shapiro has been hired as a manager at Threadneedle Investments investment executive to join Orrick, Herrington & Rogers senior equity researcher in the profes- and Occam Asset Management, has Caledonia’s global equity income and Hobbycraft Group The law firm has hired Anthony Riley, sional services firm’s investment busi- joined M&G Investments to manage growth pool. Cox started his career as Mike Giffin and Dominic Jordan have formerly a corporate partner at ness. Shapiro joins from Stamford the pan-European dividend fund, sub- a UK credit analyst, and has worked joined the retailer as chief financial offi- Norton Rose, to its London office. Associates, where he was deputy ject to regulatory approval.

To appear in CITYMOVES please email your career +44 (0)20 7092 0053 updates and pictures to [email protected] SPECIALISTS IN GLOBAL PROFESSIONAL RECRUITMENT morganmckinley.com FTSE hits a six-month high as Greek fears recede

French finance minister Francois knock-on effect on other cyclical Baroin said to journalists in Paris sectors, spearheaded by integrated THELONDON that a deal with private sector oil stocks, as oil prices rose on an EU investors about resolving Greece’s ban of Iranian crude imports. debt crisis was taking shape. Royal Dutch Shell rose 2.5 per REPORT “It’s a reminder that, actually, cent, after ING started coverage on the European sovereign debt crisis the oil major with a “buy” rating. RITAIN’S top share index hit a isn’t insurmountable,” said Henk Traders also cited an improving six-month closing high yester- Potts, market strategist at Barclays overall macroeconomic outlook as day, fuelled by banks and Wealth. supportive of commodity stocks, Bcommodity stocks, as fears Also aiding banking stocks, said with recent better-than-expected receded over the potential for a traders, were newspaper reports data out of the United States. messy Greek default in Europe’s that France and Germany will call debt crisis. for a relaxation of Basel III global ANALYSIS l FTSE 5,782.56 The UK benchmark index ended bank capital rules to prevent lend- 23 Jan 5,800 p up 54.01 points, or 0.9 per cent, at ing to the real economy being 5,700 5,782.56, its highest close since 29 choked off. 5,600 July. But Michel Barnier, European 5,500 Banks rose, with investors cau- commissioner in charge of finan- 5,400 tiously optimistic about the out- cial regulation, said yesterday that 5,300 come of a meeting of Eurozone he would stick strictly to the imple- 5,200 finance ministers in Brussels to dis- mentation of Basel III. 5,100 cuss Greek debt restructuring. Signs that a Greek deal may be The mood brightened when around the corner had a positive 24 Oct 11 Nov 1 Dec 21 Dec 13 Jan WE UNDERSTANDUNDERSTTTAAND PRINT US stocks pause after rally Design and Print is full of jargon so wewe don’t blame yyouou fforor being confused.confused. The Color Company aims cent so far this year as an improv- Among the 117 S&P 500 compa- ttoo taktakee the jargon out, so printing with us is simsimple.ple. ing US economy has boosted nies expected to report earnings THENEW YORK investor optimism. this weeks is tech company Apple, The Dow and S&P 500 both had due after the closing bell today. With Print Centres locatedlocated throughoutthroughout central their best weekly performances in The Dow Jones industrial aver- London it means yyouou are neneverver ffarar aawayway frfromom the REPORT a month last week. age slipped 11.66 points, or 0.09 per help yyouou need, 2244 hourhourss a dayday 7 daysdays a week.week. WeWe According to Thomson Reuters cent, at 12,708.82. The Standard & print anythinganything fromfrom business carcardsds ttoo high qqualityuality data, 15 per cent of S&P 500 compa- Poor’s 500 Index was up 0.62 point, S stocks ended little changed nies have reported earnings, and or 0.05 per cent, at 1,316.00. The marmarketingketing and eexhibitionxhibition collatcollateral.eral. yesterday as investors took a just 59 per cent posted results Nasdaq Composite Index was down pause from a recent rally, above Wall Street expectations. 2.53 points, or 0.09 per cent, at CALL US TO DISCUSS 0800 93 9494 93 Uawaiting earnings from bell- That percentage trails the aver- 2,784.17. oror FIND YOUR NEAREST STORE onon www.color.co.ukwwwwww..colorr..co.uk wethers such as Apple later in the age of about 70 per cent, though Texas Instruments rose three per week. the rate is expected to improve as cent after-hours after it posted bet- The S&P 500 is up nearly five per earnings season gathers steam. ter-than-expected revenues.

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S SOON as Newt Gingrich’s landslide win a solid vote in all future primaries and caucuses. electorate. The effectiveness of a positive Fox in South Carolina was announced by US But was Gingrich’s victory really such a sur- News cycle is likely to be significantly greater networks, two ideas were put forward as prise and is Florida really so very different? than another campaign commercial or automat- Agospel. Firstly, that this was an unexpect- The briefest analysis of the two candidates’ ed robocall. John McCain was significantly out- ed sensation – and secondly that, due to the vast- polling figures from South Carolina and Florida spent in his Florida victory over Romney in 2008. ness and expense of campaigning in the state, (below) shows a stark similarity, one that should In a political system dominated by billionaire- such a sensation would be impossible for him to terrify the Romney campaign. In both, Gingrich backed SuperPACs, the idea that debates can still repeat in Florida. Both are highly flawed. has led for most of the past few months – South change a campaign is encouraging – and Newt Gingrich knows how to come back from the Carolina was not an unexpected sensation and remains a master of this free medium. It will be dead. He emerged from the wilderness in March Florida has never been solid Romney country. especially interesting to see how he plays the last year to launch his campaign. By June, howev- Will money matter? In Florida it costs roughly release on Mitt Romney’s tax returns on Tuesday. er, he was floundering to such an extent that $1m to run a single advert. Team Romney is Insider Advantage and Rasmussen polls, almost all his senior team quit. But strong debate spending $2.3m just between Wednesday and released yesterday, show Newt Gingrich with an performances and the collapse of the next Tuesday’s vote. However much money eight and nine point lead in Florida respectively. Bachmann/Perry/Cain campaigns saw Newt surg- Newt’s own fundraising committee (SuperPAC) Conservatives, so long divided across a range of ing into the lead last November. His lead in Iowa releases, it seems unlikely he’ll be able to match eclectic candidates, are coalescing around him. led the Romney campaign to release a barrage of Romney. He has so far spent nothing. Will he win in Florida? The odds remain negative attack adverts that successfully dented stacked against him and the Republican estab- his momentum. He came fourth in Iowa, fifth in lishment will do just about everything possible New Hampshire and seemed doomed to drop in the next week to derail his candidature, as out after an inevitable defeat in South Carolina. Debates can still change an they stare down the barrel of his vast unpopular- But, of course, it didn’t work out like that for ity among the swing voters they need to win the zombie Gingrich, who thumped Romney by 12 American election campaign general election. Early voting also means points. You can easily imagine the former Romney may already be ahead by 40,000 votes in Massachusetts governor’s campaign screaming those cast before Newt’s South Carolina bounce. “WHY WON’T YOU JUST DIE?” at their TVs. and Newt is master of them But the astounding story is that Newt If South Carolina threw the Republican nomi- Gingrich could win in Florida – bringing terror nation into a chaotic uncertainty, it did at least to DC Republicans and delight to the Obama settle one question once and for all: Newt However, Gingrich’s win in South Carolina, campaign. This could get very very interesting. Gingrich is the only viable conservative alterna- like former Pennsylvania senator Rick Mark Gettleson is head of research at tive to Mitt Romney – a status no-one will now be Santorum’s in Iowa, didn’t come down to cash, PoliticsHome.com and senior political analyst for Dods able to take from him and one that will give him but playing to the opinions of the Republican Engagement.

ANALYSIS l South Carolina ANALYSIS l Florida 50 50 Agree? Disagree? Got a sharp comment? 45 45 The Forum wants you to join the debate. 40 GINGRICH 40 GINGRICH 35 35 COMMENT NOW ON 30 30 25 25 Twitter: @cityamforum; 20 20 on the web: cityam.com/forum; 15 ROMNEY 15 ROMNEY 10 10 or by email: [email protected]. 5 5 0 0 Top responses will be reprinted in The Forum. 13 Oct 27 Oct 10 Nov 24 Nov 8 Dec 22 Dec 5 Jan 19 Jan 12 Oct 26 Oct 9 Nov 23 Nov 7 Dec 21 Dec 4 Jan 18 Jan MARK GETTLESON 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 23 In association with Email: [email protected] Twitter: @cityamforum The Forum

RAPID RESPONSES Not a capital idea Speak your mind Holy moly: Banks [Re: Why a wealth tax is a very just reduce the incentive to create The Forum is open for you to bad idea, yesterday] A mansion it in the first place – all of which take part. Got a sharp comment tax would require a whole new means less wealth available for on one of today’s columns or bureaucracy to value property and productive investment. rapid response topics? Do you were drugged by collect the tax – a very bad idea. Also, at present we do not routine- have another subject relating to More generally, a wealth tax is bad ly have to give the taxman an business and the economy you because it destroys capital. Our account of our wealth – this is only want to share your opinion on? collective wealth provides the done when we die. A general We want to hear your views. seedcorn for new business invest- wealth tax would give government Readers are invited to comment ment, so that the economy contin- yet another opportunity to snoop on the web: cityam.com/forum; Basel’s rulebook ues to grow and generate the into people's private financial by email: [email protected]; profits and taxes off which we all affairs – a further erosion of our and on Twitter: @cityamforum. live. Taxation of wealth would liberty. The best responses will be encourage people to hide it, or John Hill reprinted in The Forum. Ex-World Bank official says that Liquidating false ideas rules on capital of Austrian economics caused the crisis ET’S suppose th at th e human, fallible credit rating agencies produce ratings th at are absolutely perfect in terms of BY ANTHONY J. EVANS Lmeasuring th e risk of default; and th at banks use th ese ratings to choose who to lend to, at what ra tes and under what conditions. N A recent article in thing” to be better than “doing nothing”, and make But th en let us add th at bank regulators, the Daily Telegraph, policy errors that compound the original problem. such as th ose in th e Basel Committee, believ- Ambrose Evans- But accepting the necessity of some liquidation and ing th ey could act as risk-managers for th e PER KUROWSKI IPritchard argued warning against the harm caused by doing too much world, imposed on banks capital requirements that “policy defeatism is is not what Evans-Pritchard and Wolf have in mind. based on perceived risks and specifically refer- in the air, and Austro-liq- They are alluding to the Great Depression, when ring to th e risks already reflected in th e rat- with a Basel III, built upon precisely th e same uidationists are winning Treasury secretary Andrew Mellon is said to have ings. failed regulatory paradigm. Holy moly. the popular debate”. advised President Herbert Hoover: “Liquidate labour, The product is a hallucinogen, a bankers’ Who am I? In 1999, I wrote: “The possible big “Austro-liquidationists” is liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real LS D. It increases th e banker’s sensitivity to risk: bang th at scares me th e most is th e one th at a neat slur, managing to damn Austrian economics as estate... purge the rottenness out of the system.” he sees good credit ratings in much brighter could happen th e day th ose genius bank regu- both terrifyingly extreme and stupefyingly technical at Unfortunately, that doesn’t square with the facts, lights; not-so-good ra tings seem far scarier. lators in Basel, playing gods, manage to intro- the same time. But Evans-Pritchard misrepresents the which demonstrate that it is simply disingenuous to For anyone interested in finance and not duce a systemic error in th e financial system, Austrian school, while also overestimating its influence. present the Depression as an Austrian plot. engaged in regulatory group-think, th e conse- which will cause its collapse.” Martin Wolf of the Financial Times was equally wrong In 2008, the US academic Lawrence H. White quence of th at hallucinogen must be excessive In 2003, I wrote again: “Everyone knows to write in 2010 that “Austrians also say – as their investigated these claims. He found that Austrian bank exposures to what is officially perceived th at, sooner or later, th e ratings issued by th e predecessors said in the 1930s – that the right scholars “did not prescribe a monetary policy of ‘liqui- as not risky – for inst ance, triple-A rated mort- credit agencies are just a new breed of systemic response is to let everything rotten be liquidated, while dationism’” during the early years of the Great gage-backed securities or “infallible” sover- errors, about to be propagated at modern continuing to balance the budget as the economy Depression and that in any case the work of the peri- eigns. The result is a dangerous overcrowding speeds.” implodes. I find this unconvincing.” od’s key Austrian economists Friedrich Hayek and of th e safe-havens and a gr owing bank under- As an executive director of the World Bank, One of the unique insights of Austrian business Lionel Robbins was not available to the Federal exposure to what is officially perceived as too in October 2004, my formal written st atement cycle theory is that excessive credit creation has the Reserve, who were instead driven by a very different risky: for instance, lending to small businesses delivered at th e board warned: “We believe potential to induce entrepreneurial errors, and the doctrine, known as “real bills”. The quotes of Mellon and entrepreneurs. That is an equally danger- that much of the world’s financial markets are resulting correction process will be unavoidable and are derived from Hoover’s memoirs and do not square ous outc ome, because of th e lost opport unities curr ently being dangerously overstretc hed, costly. So Austrians do tend to stress the need for with Mellon’s public statements – or Hayek’s view to create th e next generation of jobs for our through an exaggerated reliance on intrinsi- malinvestment to be liquidated and are sceptical of that it was harmful to allow a shrinking money supply grandchildren. cally weak financial models, based on very attempts to stimulate aggregate demand. to drive down incomes. Indeed, many Austrians point All of th ese effects come about before we short series of st atistical evidence and very For this reason Austrians tend to advocate a more to the Federal Reserve’s decision to allow monetary even enter into a discussion of th e issue th at doubtful volatility assumptions.” laissez-faire attitude towards policy, but this does not policy to tighten in the 1930s as a chief cause of the th e credit ra tings are also sometimes wrong. I am someone who was much too right, imply “doing nothing”. On the contrary, there are length and duration of the Great Depression. Regulators and experts have been able to much too early for his ow n good. many important policy ideas that would help this Austro-liquidationists make for alarming bogey- spin th is crisis as a result of excessive risk-tak- I am not someone who argues that bank reg- adjustment process: increasing labour flexibility, men, but real Austrian policies are more humane and, ing when it is evidently the result of regulatory ulators were an acceptable 8.17 degr ees off tar- reducing barriers to investment and reducing margin- so far, much less influential. Unfortunately, the truth is nannies suffering an excessive aversion to risk. get, but who argues th ey were 180 degr ees al tax rates where this would boost revenue are just so often more nuanced than a good insult. A couple of years into th is crisis, now th reat- wrong. In other words, one who wants to – three examples. The key is that policymakers should Anthony J. Evans is associate professor of ening to take the Western world down, the Occupy Basel. allow the business community to lead the recovery, economics at London’s ESCP Europe Business issue of how capital requirements drugged th e Pe r Kurowski is a Ve nezuelan citizen who served rather than attempting to take their place. The most School. www.anthonyjevans.com banks is not even discussed, and, because of from 2002-04 as one of 24 executive directors at the dangerous risk is that policymakers deem “doing any- [email protected] th at, failed regulators are allowed to proceed Wo rld Bank. http://bit.ly /dFRiMs 24 Wealth Management | Trading CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Looking for the BORIS SCHLOSSBERG DIRECTOR OF CURRENCY RESEARCH, GFT 24 next threat to AUSSIE TOP MIGHT BE NEAR

S THE old adage goes, in the land continues to soar, as investors ignore of the blind the one eyed man is the economic warning signs. On Monday, king. In the currency market the Aussie dollar-dollar climbed above the AAussie has become the one eyed $1.0500 for the first time since man. Starved for yield, FX investors con- November. Is this the start of a new run your returns tinue to flock to the Australian dollar, towards the all time highs at 1.10? I despite growing evidence that growth doubt it. Ultimately, a bet on Australia is down under is decelerating quickly. a bet on China and China is clearly slow- Last week Australian employment ing down. The latest Manufacturing surprised the market, by printing at Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) With continued violence in some of the world’s largest -29,300, versus a forecast of 10,200, report from China showed that business while the unemployment rate decreased activity showed no improvement regis- oil producing nations, as well as political bickering in to 5.2 per cent from 5.3 per cent tering a reading 48.8 – its second con- expected as the participation rate secutive month of contraction. its largest consumers, 2012 is set to be far from a declined to 65.2 per cent. The internals Despite rising exports to China, of the labour report were not nearly as Australia runs a current account deficit calm year for the markets, writes Craig Drake gloomy as the headline number would of more than 2 per cent of GDP and a suggest, with the vast loss in jobs com- budget deficit of around 3 per cent. The HOUGH difficult to predict achieved some form of peace with arrangements will be made with ing from the part-time sector. Overall current account deficit has been easy to which of the many hotspots unions after an agreement to cut Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to pick up however, Australian employment balance because of tremendous invest- of conflict – military or politi- the cost of petrol, it looks like a frag- the slack. At the same time, a drop growth has been nearly flat in 2011 – its ment flows into the Aussie dollar, but if Tcal – will flare up next, with ile ceasefire. off in European demand – in part worst performance since 1992. those flows turn into a trickle, as the crude and equity prices moving in At the start of the month, the driven by a sliding euro-dollar mak- As a result of last week’s data, inter- rate continue to decline, the Aussie will close correlation with risk senti- markets reacted to news that ing dollar-denominated crude est rate markets have now priced in an have to depreciate. Some analysts are ment, it is worth looking at the risk Nigerian unions would go on stike increasingly expensive for the 88 per cent probability that the Reserve calling for as much as a 100 basis point hotspots that have the potential to in protest over the removal of the European market. bank of Australia (RBA) will lower rates cut in the benchmark rate this year. If drive price over the coming months huge government subsidy on fuel – once again at its next meeting in that were to occur, the Aussie could threatening to close down the coun- US DEADLOCK February. This week the market will be tumble to as low as $0.9000 as carry CRUDE BEHAVIOR try’s oil production. While European and US politicians watching the Australian inflation num- traders exit their positions. Crude prices have spent the year to Though Nigeria is Africa’s biggest – if nothing else – possess a great bers very carefully. Yesterday’s Technically, if the Aussie clears the date bobbing around the $100 a bar- oil producer and supplies nearly 5 aptitude when it comes to finger Producer Price Index (PPI) data has $1.0500 handle it can run all the way to rel mark. There has been some per cent of daily US crude demand, wagging at other countries, they do already printed softer than expected at $1.0700 level before encountering the upside from the relative European it relies mainly on imported refined not have the best of track records 0.3 per cent, versus 0.4 per cent eyed, double top from September and October stability, though these days fuel – decades of corruption has left when it comes to practicing what but the true focus of the market will be of last year. Yet longs should be cautious European stability has come to the country with little capacity to they preach. Though on one hand on the Australian Consumer Price Index at this point. The upside in the pair is mean “temporary lack of defaults, process oil itself. urging the likes of Iran and Libya to (CPI) report scheduled for 12.30 am relatively limited, while the downside bank runs and other credit events” The removal of the subsidy achieve national unity and commu- tomorrow morning. The market antici- could be considerable if the RBA were rather than financial stability as one caused refined oil prices in the nication, they are more than capa- pates a sharp decline to 0.2 per cent, to compress yields further. might usually view it. This has been country to almost double, leading ble of grinding their respective from 0.6 per cent the month prior, but if One interesting way to play Aussie boosted by a hope that stronger protesters to take to the streets – economies to a halt with political the data prints negative, like it did in weakness may be through a short on demand will be seen from China with the police responding with posturing and bickering. neighbouring New Zealand last week, Australian dollar-Canadian dollar cross. and other emerging markets – tear gas. The unexpected move was As the race for the Republican the odds of a rate cut will rise to nearly As growth in Asia begins to slow, while China is the world’s second largest made on 1 January, partly in nomination continues and those on 100 per cent. activity in North America picks up, the oil consumer behind the US. It was response to IMF pressure to deregu- both sides of the house eye this Meanwhile, boosted by its G-20 lead- pair could head towards parity from its reported that December imports of late the industry. year’s presidential elections, the ing yield of 4.25 per cent, the Aussie current level of Ca$1.0600. crude oil grew by 6 per cent and it is As he announced what is likely to potential for a repeat of September’s expected that this demand growth be a temporary reinstatement of the US deadlock looms large. Whatever ANALYSIS l Australian dollar-dollar will continue through 2012. subsidy – estimated to cost around the supply issues in the Middle East, However, this upside has been $8bn per year – the president said they will be trumped by a major US 1.12 $ dragged down by political tensions that his government would “contin- slowdown or political shot to the 1.10 in Iran, Libya and Nigeria. ue to pursue full deregulation of the foot. downstream petroleum sector.” 1.08 SLOW RETURNS WHERE TO PROFIT 1.06 Yesterday evening, news broke that LOST SENSE OF HORMUZ “We don’t know what or where the 1.04 Gaddafi diehards had launched an Following Iranian military maneu- next diplomatic hotspot will be, but 1.02 attack on the Libyan city of Bani vers in the Strait of Hormoz, we are sure there’ll be something 1.00 Walid, 110 miles southwest of European Ministers have moved and that the markets will continue Tripoli. Bani Walid was one of the ahead with their threats to place an to worry about security of supply,” 0.98 last footholds of Gaddafi loyalists to embargo on the importation of says Bill Mott of the PSigma Income 0.96 hold out in the uprising against the Iranian oil into the EU. Fund. “In this environment of a 0.94 Libyan dictator. The move could escalate tensions stronger-for-longer oil price, we Mar 2011 May 2011 Jul 2011 Sep 2011 Nov 2011 Jan 2012 The latest attack will likely be with Iran – the second largest oil think the oil majors will continue to another stumbling block to a peace- producer in the Opec tree house do well.” ANALYSIS l Australian dollar-Canadian dollar ful Libya. And until the interim exports around 20 per cent of its oil The likes of Royal Dutch Shell, BP National Transitional Government – to Europe and has threatened to and Premier Oil should see sus- 1.07 Ca$ or indeed any replacement govern- close the Strait if the embargo goes tained growth, with the smaller 1.06 ment – can put its internal squab- ahead. players struggling to keep up with 1.05 bling and rivalries to one side, it is But analysts are divided about the costs of entry to the club, but for 1.04 unlikely that we will see any acceler- just what an effect this move will real volatility, spot crude is the do- 1.03 ation in the return of Libya to the have on oil prices. It is likely that or-die shot. 1.02 oil-producing Big League. 1.01 Shut down after Nato forces start- ANALYSIS l Spot crude - equities correlation 1.00 ed a peace-keeping bombing cam- 0.99 paign in March to protect civilians 15 WTI crude 0.98 against the Gaddafi government, 0.97 levels of Libyan oil production have S&P 500 0.96 been slowly moving towards pre- 10 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jul 2011 Sep 2011 Nov 2011 Jan 2012 civil war levels of around 280,000 barrels per day. According to Opec, 5 Libya’s oil industry is almost back to normal, but the oil cartel is hardly facebook.com/fx360 twitter.com/fx360 0 known for its full and transparent dissemination of information. fx360.com -5 GOODLUCK WITH THE STRIKES The contents of this column are provided for general information purposes only. One should consider the appropriateness Though Nigerian President of the information in light of their own objectives, financial situation or needs before trading. CD11UK.074.010612 Goodluck Jonathon appears to have Nov Dec 2012 CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Wealth Management 25

Brussels

China

Iran Libya

Nigeria

Oil prices are unlikely to tank

Picture: REUTERS

ANALYST PICKS

STRATEGIST QUANTITATIVE STRATEGIST FOREX STRATEGIST JOHN KICKLIGHTER DAVID RODRIGUEZ JOEL KRUGER

My pick: Short S&P 500 Below 1,300 My pick: Long euro-dollar above $1.2875 My pick: Looking to buy euro-yen Expertise: Fundamental and technical analysis Expertise: System trading Expertise: Technical analysis Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week Average time frame of trades: 1 week – 6 months Average time frame of trades: 1 week The fundamental outlook for global growth and financial stability is I think we are in the midst of a major euro-dollar short-covering The euro is finally starting to correct after weeks of pressure. The lat- crumbling and yet, risk-based assets continue to nudge higher. This rally, as the pair bounces significantly off of its most recent lows. I est break above $1.3000 opens the door for additional upside over the disparity is founded in hope of unnatural calm and stimulus. However, think the strong rally through Monday’s session sets the stage for coming days. From here, look for additional short-term corrective gains the potential risk of a downdraft – though not the prevailing trend – is strength throughout the rest of the week, and as such I’d like to towards the $1.3500 area, before the market stalls out in favour of the severe. Therefore, I’m watching to see if the S&P 500 loses momen- get long. I’ll place the stop below Monday’s low of $1.2875 and next major lower top and underlying bear trend resumption. The bullish tum and collapses below 1,300, with a mind for a short and stop look for initial targets of $1.3200, with an ultimate objective of reversal close in the previous week provides additional confirmation for above the current swing high. $1.3500. short-term bullish outlook. I will look to sell into rallies. 26 Wealth Management | Trading CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Uncertainty holds sway over the FTSE As the benchmark index headed to a new high for the year, we asked four experts for their views

GFT US have come in better than expected, while CMC MARKETS The economy is at a critical stage and is pre- DAVID MORRISON China’s GDP growth remains robust and infla- BRENDA KELLY dicted to have shrunk by 0.1 per cent in the tion continues to moderate, reducing fears of a final quarter of 2011. The FTSE 100 fell 6 per Chinese “hard landing”. As for Europe, From a technical perspec- The largest constituents of the FTSE 100 on a cent last year, which was investors have shrugged off ratings agency tive, the FTSE 100 sector basis are financials, miners, oil and gas. bad news for buy and downgrades and lowered growth forecasts. It dropped below the 5,800 These are sectors that generally do well when hold investors. Its per- appears that all bad news is now priced in. level in late July 2011 on the economy is growing, not contracting. formance compared Risk appetite is currently strong thanks to the the basis of the The ECB’s long term financing operation has, poorly with the major expectation of further stimulus from the Bank omnipresent escalating for the moment, helped to allay the funding US indices: the Dow Jones Industrial Average of England next month, while the ECB looks debt crisis in Europe. problems facing the European banking system. managed a 5 per cent gain, while the broader- like expanding its long term refinancing opera- Only one attempt was made to regain this level Any escalation of the financial crisis within based S&P 500 index ended flat. Nevertheless, tions to help backstop troubled European in late October last year and this failed to Europe may weigh heavily on the FTSE given the UK index easily outperformed the German banks. The IMF wants to build a larger bail-out break above 5,783, which coincides with the the UK financial sector's exposure to European Dax (down 15 per cent) and China’s Shanghai fund, and it’s even possible that the US Federal 76.4 per cent Fibonacci retracement level from banks and sovereign debt. Composite, which lost 21 per cent over the Reserve is open to additional stimulus meas- the May highs to the August lows. The FTSE is Inflation is showing signs of easing, so a fur- course of the year. ures, once it finds a way to spin it positively. at present retesting this resistance point and ther extension of the QE programme in the There’s been a good start to 2012 with Yet these interventions show that there are only a convincing break and close above would early part of this year is largely anticipated. investors apparently happy to increase their still fundamental problems with the global see 5,900 and upwards in the crosshairs. This could easily give the equity markets and exposure to UK equities. Many now believe economy and our financial institutions. Until The UK has a difficult balancing act in stimu- ergo the FTSE 100 a boost. Global demand that the world has seen the worst of the finan- these are dealt with, the outlook remains lating growth, while protecting its AAA rating looks set to remain weak, so even with a weak- cial crisis. Recent economic releases from the uncertain. through massive savings on public spending. er pound, the FTSE has a difficult year ahead.

IG INDEX is a little harder to understand – the risks of a CITY INDEX wave pattern from the November 2011 low. DAVID JONES double-dip recession are far more likely than SANDY JADEJA This would suggest that we are likely to see a they were 12 months ago, but the FTSE 100 is pullback after reaching 5,820, before attack- Stock markets may have only around 100 points lower over the past 12 The FTSE 100 is in a ing the 6,000 level. Also, the current move surprised a few people this months. unique position at the up is a correction against the main bearish year by the strong start we In the short term at least there still seems to be present moment. On trend since the July 2011 high. This means have seen to trading after an appetite to buy on the dips, so it does not the one hand we have a that there is likely to be a larger degree cor- the Christmas break. While seem too unrealistic to see the 6,000 level chal- bullish bias with a rection in store for the bears to come along we still have the dual wor- lenged in the first few months of 2012. The potentially bullish pat- and spoil the fun for the bulls. This is most ries of the ongoing 5,600 level has proved very resilient to any tern in development probably going to occur during March to Eurozone crisis and slowing economic recovery, shock,s so for now at least the market appears and at the same time we have the index April, as there is a time spiral window during some would view it as somewhat irrational – well supported. approaching a resistance level. Having these months. Once the FTSE creates a but nowhere is it written that markets have to The old adage has it that bull markets climb a cleared past the initial hurdle of 5,600, which reversal pattern at the cited resistance levels be logical. wall of worry – so it seems unlikely to see the held back the index since October 2011, the the correction is likely to be greater than 10 Investors appear to have a more relaxed rate of momentum for the FTSE 100 at the next upside objective of 5,820 is within easy per cent and could see the FTSE trade back approach to the problems of the Eurozone and, moment continue through 2012, bearing in reach. After achieving 5,820 it is likely that towards the 5,200 area. while an absolute solution does not appear to mind we have the same problems that weighed the FTSE will aim for the psychological level What we can count on is that we will most be that much nearer, it does feel like markets last year. We shouldn’t let the enthusiastic start of 6,000. likely have volatility and range expansion have now discounted much of what we know to trading this year lull us into a false sense of However, the reach for 6,000 may require picking up over the next few months, creat- about this problem and are looking further security, so it is difficult to see significant several attempts to break past 5,820 first. ing ample trading opportunities for both bulls ahead. Ignoring the slowing economic recovery progress through 6,000 as the year unfolds. The immediate picture sports a potential five and bears alike.

THE TIPSTER HOPPING ONTO A ROCK SOLID BET COULD BE SLICK

HERE is a lot of speculation sur- Wednesday will be of interest to share- rounding oil explorer holders looking to see whether the Rockhopper. With takeover retailer bucked the trend over the fes- Ttalks lingering, it could only be a tive season and had a boost in trading. matter of time before an announcement On the other hand, the likes of Amazon is made. However, we have seen this and other online stationers could have stock rally from 30p to over 500p, and had a serious impact on footfall for the then drop like a stone to 150p, so the high street chain. The technicals sup- only thing we know for sure is that port a bullish trend, so let’s see if the nothing is certain. But as the old adage store can pencil in a strong set of goes: buy on rumour, sell on fact. It results. Capital Spreads quotes a price could be a similar scenario here. Capital of 538.8p-540.7p. Spreads quotes 343.8p-346.2p. The FTSE has broken through its BP shares have had a good run since near term resistance around the 5,720 early October, as the price of crude has area and on Monday it even recorded a annual holidays and trade down to anyone in need of cheaper oil. IG current levels as income hunters begin rallied sharply over this time. However, new high for the year. With clients budget airlines in a bid to save money. Markets $5 mini contract for April to pile in. ETX Capital quotes 295.2p- the stock has struggled to make much remaining sceptical that the strength Capital Spreads quotes 419.8p-421.7p delivery is priced $1,1047-$1,1056. 296.1p for the rolling daily contract. progress of late. It has been unable to can continue – they remain bearish for Easyjet’s share price. Cairn Energy has had a torrid time After its late December slide to break convincingly above 477p/480p, overall – are they set for more pain as Has Europe risked price stability by in the last couple of years, as it shifted $1,524, gold has rallied hard, adding the 50 per cent retracement of the the index rises further? Capital banning Iranian oil imports from July its focus away from India towards on an impressive $150 in just three sell-off, following the disaster in the Spreads quotes a price of 5,775.0- onwards? This had been on the cards drilling in Greenland. Now that it has weeks. Major hurdles at $1,664 and Gulf of Mexico. Results are due out on 5,776.0 for the UK 100 index. for a few weeks, so the price of black sold a large part of Cairn India and has $1,674 were cleared on Monday, open- 7 February, but there is uncertainty Easyjet gives a trading update on gold hasn’t jumped up too much on the almost $5bn sitting on its books, the ing up a run at the $1,700 and maybe over the size of the settlement for the Thursday and investors will be keen to announcement. The question now will oil explorer has decided to return capi- even $1,720 level, where it may well Gulf accident and this is capping gains. see how the airline is doing during be whether we can expect a strong tal back to its shareholders. With the run out of steam and retrace back to GFT is quoting 474.9p-475p for BP these tough economic times. The stock policy reaction from Tehran? Making stock going ex-dividend on 6 February $1,674. Spread Co offers a spread on cash. has performed well since October 2011 good on its threat to close the Strait of for the princely sum of 160p per share, spot gold of $1,675.5 - $1,675.9 WH Smith’s Christmas update on as people are reluctant to give up their Hormuz would be the worst case for the stock could improve further from Philip Salter

28 Lifestyle | Burns Night

Get the haggis The best places to dine to right at your Burns supper f you’re thinking of hosting your own ensure a first degree Burns Burns night, the haggis should be the star of the show. Contrary to the Ibelief of many south of the border, a well cooked haggis is far more than a bag Steve Dinneen looks at of offal. Quality haggis contains an aro- matic blend of spices and oatmeal, with the best way to meat as high quality as a decent butchers’ sausage. McSween’s sell delicious haggis, celebrate the great which you can pick up in Selfridges. Addressing the haggis before you eat it is Scottish bard an integral part of the celebration. The host should recite Burns’ famous Address To A lmost 215 years since the death of Haggis, which was written as a celebration Scotland’s most famous poet, Burns of his homeland. True Scots will know it by night has become an established heart: for everyone else, here’s a reminder. Apart of the London culinary calen- dar, with its popularity growing every year. Fair fa' your honest, sonsie face, We look at some of the best places to get the Great chieftain o' the puddin-race! most from you haggis this year – and a few Aboon them a' ye tak your place, places to cut loose once you’ve eaten your Painch, tripe, or thairm: fill of the “chieftain o’ the puddin-race”. Weel are ye wordy o' a grace As lang's my arm.

THE RIB ROOM The groaning trencher there ye fill, Your hurdies like a distant hill, Jumeirah Carlton Tower, Cadogan Place Your pin wad help to mend a mill 20-25 January In time o' need, £50 for four courses While thro' your pores the dews distil Like amber bead. The newly re-opened Rib Room is offering an array of classic seasonal Scottish dish- His knife see rustic Labour dight, es given a modern twist by head chef Ian An' cut you up wi' ready sleight, Rudge. Crowdie cheese, pickled vegeta- Trenching your gushing entrails bright, bles, beetroot, roasted walnuts and crou- Like ony ditch; tons is followed by pan-fried scallops with And then, O what a glorious sight, a Cullen skink and cauliflower purée. Warm-reekin, rich! Then it’s onto the main event with a loin of Highland venison with haggis and chest- Then, horn for horn, nut casserole, parsnip and apple. Desserts they stretch an' strive: include cranachan, chocolate and Deil tak the hindmost! on they drive, Drambuie mousse and Dundee cake souf- Till a' their weel-swall'd kytes belyve, flé. Tunnocks-inspired petit fours accompa- Are bent lyke drums; ny your coffee. Upgrade to the Buccleuch Then auld Guidman, maist like to rive, private dining room for £100 a person and "Bethankit!" 'hums. receive a bottle of Glenmorangie Astar Single Malt to share and an additional mid- Is there that owre his French ragout dle-course of haggis, neeps and tatties wel- Or olio that wad staw a sow, comed by a piper. Or fricassee wad mak her spew www.theribroom.co.uk Wi' perfect sconner, Looks down wi' sneering, scornfu' view Avalon (top) is host- On sic a dinner? HIX AT THE ALBEMARLE ing a Burns malt AVALON CEILIDH CLUB tasting, while Poor devil! see him ower his trash, Brown's Hotel, Albemarle Street, W1S 4BP Brown’s and The Rib 16 Balham Hill, London SW12 9EB Hammersmith Town Hall, King St, W6 As feckless as a wither'd rash, 25 January Room (above left 25 January 27-28 January His spindle shank, a guid whip-lash, £32.50 for three courses and right) have spe- £15 for a tutored malt tasting £25 entry His nieve a nit; cial set menus Thro' bloody flood or field to dash, Executive chef Lee Streeton has created a A special event in the pub’s Blue Room fea- Burn off your haggis with three hours of O how unfit! special Scottish menu, with starters of tures a tutored malt tasting, complete Scottish country dancing with a twist. The cock-a-leekie soup, tatties and pickled her- with Scottish canapés paired with each Ceilidh Club (pronounced kay-lee) has live But mark the Rustic, haggis fed, ring with capers or Kingairloch venison dram. Hosted by a series of whisky bands to bash out the tunes while you The trembling earth resounds his tread. salad with woodland mushrooms. Haggis experts, the night will include a ‘how to’ attempt to dance the likes of the Gay Clap in his walie nieve a blade, is first on the list for the main but those in perfecting the five-step tasting system: Gordons, Eight Reel and the Dashing He'll mak it whissle; unconvinced by the signature dish can go colour, body, nose, palate and finish. White Sergeant. For those who didn’t have An' legs an' arms, an' heads will sned, for Shetland Island mussel stew with fen- Guests will be able to sample more than the advantage of growing up in Scotland, Like taps o' thrissle. nel or fillet of Peterhead cod with razor 20 varieties from the four main whisky there is a caller who will help you get to clams and Orkney bacon. To round it all producing regions: Highlands, Lowlands, grips with the steps. Imagine a giant Ye Pow'rs wha mak mankind your care, off there is a choice of tipsy laird (a tradi- Islay and Speyside. There will also be a Scottish wedding without the aire of men- And dish them out their bill o' fare, tional Burns night trifle dessert), selection of tastings of the blended vari- ace and you’re pretty close. A great way to Auld Scotland wants nae skinking ware cranachan (a creamy pudding served with etals of Auchentoshan and Bowmore finish up your Burns celebrations. That jaups in luggies; raspberries) or a Scottish farmhouse alongside single malts such as Talisker, Booking in advance is a must, with But, if ye wish her gratefu' prayer, cheese board with red onion chutney. Glenkinchie, Dalwhinnie and Oban. tickets expected to sell out. Gie her a haggis! www.thealbemarlerestaurant.com www.theavalonlondon.com www.ceilidhclub.com

EXPERT VIEW: WHISKY n exceptional malt whisky is an essential whiskies in ex-bourbon casks, renowned for For a classic delicate and deliciously complex part of Burns Night celebrations to toast their diverse flavour profiles, for at least ten single malt, Glenmorangie Original is a ten-year- the life writings of Scotland’s best-known years. Whisky is best enjoyed neat in its purest old elegant and floral whisky, produced by mar- Apoet and to pair with traditional Burns form where the complexity of the flavours and rying the delicate spirit that emerges from Night supper dishes. Whisky is often enjoyed aromas is at its fullest intensity. However, Scotland's tallest stills with American white oak throughout the meal to toast the haggis, the adding a little water will soften the alcohol, casks. For those wanting to try something spe- memory of Robert Burns and the lassies (ladies) causing a change in the texture and bouquet of cial, Glenmorangie Artein (£69.99, The Whisky who would have historically prepared the haggis. the whisky and reveal further layers of aromas Exchange) has just been released - an assem- The best single malt Scotch whisky is made and complexity. Adding ice closes down the top blage of 15 and 21 year old single malts, extra from barley and mineral rich spring water which notes that are released with water, accentuat- matured in Super Tuscan wine casks with HEAD OF DISTILLING AND WHISKY is fermented, distilled and then matured in ing instead the base flavours from the oak bar- flavours of ripe apricots, peaches and plums. CREATION AT GLENMORANGIE wooden casks from which the liquid gains its rel. A simple good quality tumbler enables the With its long finish and high notes of zesty, delicate flavours and intriguing layers of aromas aromas to be released either before or after lemon sherbet and a flourish of creamy cappuc- DR BILL LUMSDEN and taste. Glenmorangie chooses to mature its adding water. cino, it is an extra special serve for Burns Night. 29 Restaurants More cruise liner than chic QUAFFER’S CORNER Steve Dinneen finds Kitchen Joël Antunès fails to live up to its HEAD SOMMELIER AND MANAGER OF “legendary” reputation LUTYENS RESTAURANT ANDREW CONNOR Kitchen Joël Antunès 29 Old Burlington Street, London, W1S 3AN T: 020 7494 5660 A lesson learned FOOD hiiii SERVICE hhiii ATMOSPHERE hiiii on Canada’s wine

Cost per person without wine: £65 s is typical in the London restaurant scene, we have a very international team at Lutyens. My assistant Andres is from egends aren’t what they used to be. ACanada and, as he went home for Almost anyone can be one. You have Christmas, he brought in some Canadian wine to do something pretty heinous to for us to try. There is comparatively little Lbe both famous and dead and not be Canadian wine in the UK market aside from Ice- called a legend. Branding the deceased wine from Ontario. This is a style that originates anything less is tantamount to ostenta- in Germany where the grapes are left to hang on tiously passing wind at their funeral. the vines until well into winter. The grapes freeze It comes as little surprise, then, that and are picked and pressed while still frozen, this The Embassy Mayfair, which has been effectively extracts some of the water from the around since 1870, is trumpeting its juice and so concentrates it giving a super sweet reopening, as Kitchen Joël Antunès, as wine. the return of a “legend”. That’s not what he brought back however as The restaurant is an expansive canteen he’s from British Columbia. These are wines with white tiled floors and mirrored pil- that have a great deal in common with the lars. Off-white booths are accented by a wines of the Pacific North-West of the USA. It’s disagreeable shade of peppermint. the usual story, as you move away from the French Riviera seems to be the goal but equator the climate becomes cooler and the it’s closer to Club Med, or a Saga cruise wines tend to higher acidity and lower alcohol. holiday, right down to the framed photo- sine; it should come as naturally as The expansive can- Wetherspoon’s, where the bill would Certain grape varieties are more suitable for graphs of arm-band clad bathers. To real- breathing or being rude to American teen features off- have come to a fraction of the £200 cooler climates and, to generalise wildly, as the ly give you that cruise-liner experience, tourists. Not so. The insipid hunk of white booths (which included a bottle of wine and a growing season is longer they tend to be more the lights flickered on and off for the soggy flesh came, rather appropriately, in accented by an couple of cocktails). Joël Antunès (the aromatic as the flavours have longer to accu- duration of my meal, while the staff its own tiny black sarcophagus, hunched unpleasant pepper- chef) won a Michelin star in 1994 for his mulate in the grapes. gazed sadly upwards like lost sailors try- in a feeble sauce and decorated with a mint green Les Saveurs restaurant on Curzon Street. The red is Black Hills Nota Bene 2008, ing in vain to read a map of the stars. sorry selection of wilted vegetable mat- Whatever your views on the Michelin sys- shame on us for opening it as it’s just a baby, a The chefs played their roles to a tee, ter. Its coffin should have remained tem, his latest venture isn’t even close. Bordeaux style blend of Cabernet Sauvignon, preparing food that would have been at sealed. The duck was worse – a thick A meal with so few redeeming features Merlot and Cabernet Franc. There’s an elegance home on an ocean-liner buffet. The gnoc- brown scab, ripe for the picking, sat atop is a rarity – an experience you should be and freshness to it that mark it out as a cool cli- chi starter came drenched in a watery a layer of chewy fat. It was a roll-call of able to dine out on for years to come, mate wine but, in fact, it is from the southern sauce, while the cubes of sponge accom- how not to prepare anything with a beak embellishing the details with every telling. end of the Okanaga valley, where the gravelly panying it were unrecognisable as crab. and both left the table with barely a bite Antunès even falls short on this count. The soils blend into the sandy desert of Osoyoos. The buffalo with aubergine was a greasy taken. ex-footballer Tony Adams was sitting at the Along with the crunchy Cabernet fruit (and mass of unappealing grey and beige that Dessert was no sweet relief. It had next table to us – apparently he met his Franc leafiness) there’s a Sage-like herbaceous- tasted like it had been violently drowned never before occurred to me to construct wife years ago at the members’ club (and ness along with tarry liquorice, coffee and in a tub of oil. a layer cake with sheets of sugar-soaked when that’s the most interesting talking cocoa powder. Nice round mouth feel is coun- The starters were unpleasant but they loft insulation and this was a visceral point after a meal, there is something terpointed by fine tannins and brisk acidity. were left in the shade by the mains. Coq demonstration of why. sadly lacking). People probably think he’s a Delicious, but I’d like to see it in a few years au vin should be ingrained in the DNA of I would have been disappointed had legend. He’s certainly more qualified than time. I feel like I’ve learned something about a restaurant specialising in Provençal cui- this meal been served up in Kitchen Joël Antunès. Canadian wine today. Lobster and burgers, folks... that’s it

restaurants (a new one has just opened in Steamed lobster is whole lobster in town alongside and me looked at each other and said: “It’s Simplicity is all at the Canary Wharf, adding to the wildly popular one of three options what I believe to be the most good. It’s good. But it doesn’t taste that Mayfair and City outposts), have taken this at Burger & Lobster. expensive burger. much like lobster.” hot new opening from idea a step further with Burger & Lobster. So how does it taste? The lob- Just why remains a mystery, but at £20, It’s hardly a graceful name, describing the ster looked like lobster, and you’re getting good value – especially as it entirety of the menu in distinctly utilitarian chewed like lobster – which is to say, all comes with chips and a rather sexy pot the Goodman folk, terms. But boy has it hit a nerve: on in a way similar to pliant rubber. But of salad. Saturday lunch, the wait for a table (no it didn’t quite taste of the sea. The question of the burger’s price tag is says Zoe Strimpel bookings – another nod to a London vogue) Delivered fresh by the tank-load from resolved, to some degree, by its quality and was an hour. Nova Scotia, my New England- weight: all grass-fed Irish and corn-fed HE vogue for culinary simplicity has There are three options: burger, lobster or reared taste buds were searching Nebraskan beef, sans filler, each weighs been around for a while. The shorter lobster roll. The lobster comes steamed in for more salt, more reference to 10oz. It’s a lovely burger, and should be, the menu, the better – after all, asks the shell but you can have it finished on marine origins. When eating lobster given its price. Tthe modern diner, how can caviar, the grill if you want. Lobster and roll are in wintry Clarges Street, rather than on Cocktails and champagne by the glass are steak, chicken, risotto and a thousand other both served with clarified butter or a deli- the Massachusetts marshes in high sum- £9. The simplicity, ironically, is gimmicky, dishes from one kitchen and one staff be cious lemon and herb butter. mer, you need your lobster to taste all the but it’s a welcome gimmick, and this is a fresh, made with the best of the day’s ingre- This is the weird bit, where simplicity more of the sea. worthwhile den of life on an otherwise curi- dients? is stretched almost out of reason. With the lobster roll, which was a very ously dead street. Well, the guys behind Goodman, the Everything costs the same: £20, which generously stuffed, heaven-sent buttery 29 Clarges Street, W1J 7EF. Three stars. Russian-owned smash hit chain of steak means you’re getting the cheapest good brioche, my (also American) companion www.burgerandlobster.com 30 Lifestyle | Health CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Limbering up for a brilliant ski

Get the most out of the weight overhead. Repeat. Do two sets of slopes. Our fitness 20, every other day. DESK PREP Want to make use of time in the office? columnist Laura Inadequately conditioned quad muscles (front of thigh) can cause early slope Williams tells Zoe fatigue. Try doing this knee extension exercise a couple of times a day at your Strimpel how to do it desk: Sit on the edge of your chair with knees bent before slowly lifting both legs off the ground (you may need to hold on IKE many a busy office worker, I failed to sides of chair). Hold both legs in the air to prepare for my recent ski holoday. for a count of five, lower and repeat. Do a And I’m paying the price with a stiff- total of 10 reps. Lness of gait and inelegance of posture that simply can’t be attractive. IF YOU HAVE TIME TO PREPARE Don’t make the same mistake. Here are Work on strength for starters. Google some ways to limber up so that you’re able these top skiing moves to add to your to walk from slopes to après ski bar and workout repertoire: lunges on a Swiss once the fun’s over, up the front door stairs, ball; deadlifts with a row; bi-lateral without too much pain. Obviously, the bet- lunges and BOSU squat jumps. ter your ski muscles are prepared, the bet- Concentrate on some plyometric moves ter you’ll ski. If you’re one of the many too (explosive, jumping-style moves that flocking to the slopes for February half help to develop hip and leg power). A term, you have ample time to prepare. good skiing plyometric move is the box- The more time, the better you’ll feel. jump (don’t do if you have any joint prob- Here, City A.M. Fitness and Health lems, or aren’t used to training) and the columnist Laura Williams walks you BOSU jump mentioned above. Don’t for- through six ways to get ready. get your flexibility either: this will enable your body to get used to the sudden THE CRUCIAL CORE stretching movements a good Reduce risk of falls, improve posture and run will involve, and will enhance performance by working on also prevent joints from your core. This Swiss ball exercise is per- taking too much of a fect for working your core in a rotational- hit – concentrate type movement, as you’ll be doing when in particular on you’re skiing. Place your hands shoulder calves, quads and width apart on a fitness ball. From here, hamstrings. walk backwards until legs are extended, with body in a straight position. Then IF YOU LEFT IT TILL THE slowly bring one knee towards the chest – LAST MINUTE by creating this instability you’ll be forced Not a great deal can be to use your core muscles to keep your bal- done if you’ve left it the ance and maintain a straight spine. week before to train – you don’t want to go hell for TOUGHEN THE TICKER leather and wind up with Cardiovascular or aerobic exercise will lower body meltdown help to build the much needed before you’ve even checked endurance required for exercising all day in. Do the desk prep quadri- at high altitudes. A mixture of stairclimb- ceps exercise from above the ing, running and the crosstrainer (basical- week before, and keep ly, anything where you’ll be on your feet) stretching out all your lower will work wonders for ski fitness. Try a body muscles ensuring combination of steady aerobic “plodding” to build endurance. knees behind they’re as flexible as possi- (where your heart rate isn’t too high and toes and abs ble before you get going. you can still hold a conversation), with IF YOU DO JUST ONE MOVE... The key to enjoying contracted) and Start slowly too; try not to interval style training where you Try the squat ‘n’ sweep for strengthening your ski holiday is touch the ball to rush into any explosive alternate between higher-intensity bursts all lower body muscles and most upper preparation. the floor. Press moments in particular. (e.g. a sprint) and low intensity ones (e.g. body ones too. Stand with feet hip-width through the heels Lastly, maybe book a mas- walking). Aim for at least three sessions of apart and hold a medicine ball or dumb- to rise back up sage on arrival as a precau- over 30 minutes a week if you’re looking bell. Squat as low as you can (keeping while sweeping the tionary measure. www.laurawilliamsonline.co.uk

Correction: The Russell Norman pictured on the front page of yesterday’s City A.M. was not the London restaurateur, as intended, but New Zealand politician EPISODERussel Norman. We apologise. 43 – A FRAZZLED START TO THE DAY

WISH I could say the radio alarm had rather than to Noel - in the absence of a failed. But I can’t. Anyway, with infant response from her. I look at my phone. twins in the house, neither bugle call Aggh. I’ve hit the wrong number. It LOSING YOUR HAIR? Inor drum roll is ever required for seems I’m the early morning caller dis- reveille. Nevertheless, at 6.45am I’m turbing my own household’s sleep. At The Wimpole Clinic, one already 45 minutes behind schedule. “Daddy.” of the leading hair transplant The Perth flight leaves at 11am and it’s “Noel, get back to bed. It’s early,” I centres in Europe, Dr. Michael clear I won’t make it into the office bark. May F.R.C.S. has pioneered before departure as I’d planned. “Have you already been to Australia a permanent solution to Juliette will have to courier the Cooke- daddy? Have you got my boomerang?” male pattern baldness using Webb Mining documents to me at the This is a considerable advance on “Are advanced follicular unit airport. Hell, I’ll have more than 19 hours we there yet?” ten minutes into a three hair transplant techniques. airborne to study them before arrival hour car journey. For your FREE consultation and even Sir Roderick’s “buffoon of a “No. Now get back into bed.” with Dr May call today on: son-in-law” and his colleagues at “Daddy…” Osgood’s have worked out that CWM is “Noel.” I turn, raising my voice. “I’m 020 7935 1861 attractively undervalued and distinctly late. Be quiet.” Noel shrinks from me. He www.wimpoleclinic.com vulnerable; iron ore, with an enticing begins to cry. “Daddy,” he whimpers, sideline in gold. clinging to my leg. I grab my phone and hit Juliette’s “It’s alright son. I’m sorry.” I put my THE WIMPOLE CLINIC number. A moment later the home hands around Noel’s golden-haired head, phone rings. Damn. As I dash to answer the colour and shape of my father’s head. Hannah House, 11-16 Manchester Street, London W1U 4DJ it, or at least to terminate its ringing, My phone rings. It’s Juliette. I ignore it. Noel staggers sleepily from his bedroom. City Dad will continue next Tuesday. “Daddy.” For previous episodes, go to IT CAN BE RESTORED! CITY DAD “Where’s Juliette?” I growl - to myself www.cityam.com.

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Bale scored in Sunday’s unfortunate 3-2 defeat at Manchester City. Spurs ready Picture: ACTION IMAGES to overtake rivals Arsenal

Arsene Wenger’s decision to substi- tute Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain – it had the feeling of a watershed moment, players that win you titles. would have harboured the same perhaps in the Frenchman’s reign, but reservations. But Redknapp’s judge- NEXT SIX PL GAMES | SPURS & ARSENAL certainly in the rivalry between Spurs FLAWED TRANSFER POLICY ment and confidence in the short- and Arsenal. Wenger is a magnificent coach who term merits of Parker’s presence in SPURS The toxic atmosphere inside has transformed Arsenal’s image, but his side’s midfield has emphatically 31 January: Wigan (home) Emirates Stadium intensified once sometimes you have to rely on short- proved to be a punt worth taking. 6 February: Liverpool (away) FOOTBALL COMMENT Danny Welbeck’s late goal secured vic- term fixes to ensure the long-term It would be churlish to claim Spurs 11 February: Newcastle (home) tory for Manchester United and left goal remains attainable. are on the verge of usurping Arsenal TREVOR STEVEN Arsenal staring at the prospect of a A failure to invest last January saw on the basis of signing Parker, but cer- 26 February: Arsenal (away) year without Champions League foot- Arsenal’s challenge on four fronts tainly it indicates their willingness to 4 March: Manchester United (home) HE CIRCUMSTANCES of ball and all that accompanies it. unravel in the space of three weeks invest in the here and now, while 10 March: Everton (away) Tottenham’s defeat at A manager of Wenger’s standing and certainly contributed to the Arsenal are stuck in a perpetual state Manchester City on Sunday will doesn’t deserve to have his authority departures of Cesc Fabregas and of building for the future. Thave stung Harry Redknapp, but or decision-making so openly ques- Samir Nasri, while already Wenger The next six games could well ARSENAL he should seek significant consolation tioned by his club’s fans or his skipper, appears to be fighting a losing battle determine what that future holds for 1 February: Bolton (away) in the fact his side’s performance con- but you can certainly understand the to maintain the services of Van Persie. Arsenal. A failure to pick up some- 4 February: Blackburn (home) firmed a shift in the balance of power frustration felt on all sides. Redknapp, on the other hand, had thing near maximum points will see in north London. Arsenal’s downfall has been in their to fight to convince his chairman of them wave goodbye to a top four place 11 February: Sunderland (away) To have retrieved a two-goal deficit refusal to build from a position of the merits of signing Scott Parker. and their only world class player. 26 February: Tottenham (home) and come within a few centimetres of strength and has led them to a posi- Daniel Levy argued that the addition If that’s the case, the Gunners will 3 March: Liverpool (away) beating the champions-elect under- tion whereby they are now attempting of a 30-year-old with no re-sale value start next season from an unfamiliar 12 March: Newcastle (home) lined the faith Redknapp’s players to sculpt a side around the likes of and a checkered injury record should position as north London’s second hold in his methods. Mikel Arteta and Per Mertesacker, who not be top of his club’s priority list. class citizens. The contrast could not have been would have been solid squad addi- You can understand his thinking Trevor Steven is a former Everton and * Fixtures subject to change due to both starker just a few hours later when tions when they were challenging for and I’m sure were Arsenal consider- Glasgow Rangers winger who represented teams involvement in the FA Cup Robin van Persie appeared to contest honours, but simply aren’t the sort of ing taking a gamble on Parker they England at the 1986 and 1990 World Cup. Laureus World Sports Awards, London, 6 February Can Farah go the distance and cap landmark year? World champion 5,000m runner up against McIlroy and host of WIN A PAIR OF TICKETS FANCY rubbing shoulders with the very other stars of 2011 for Laureus World Breakthrough Award biggest names from the world of sport at ESS than two weeks to go and the count- Laureus Breakthrough of the Year category. next month’s glitzy ceremony in London? Of down is on to the 2012 Laureus World With the Olympic Games just six months away, course you do. Well you’re in luck, because Sports Awards. The most prestigious sports Mo Farah will be one of our best hopes for gold City A.M. has a pair of tickets to the Laureus Lawards in the world, the winners are chosen after last year becoming the first Briton to win World Sports Awards at Central Hall, by the 47 members of the Laureus World Sports the World Championships 5,000m in Daegu and Westminster, on 6 February – and the exclu- Academy, which includes British greats such as claiming 10,000m silver as well. sive aftershow party – to give away to a Sir Ian Botham, Sir Bobby Charlton, Lord Also nominated is golfer Rory McIlroy, who lucky reader. Just keep watching these Farah won 5,000m gold in Daegu last year Sebastian Coe and Baroness Tanni Grey- delighted the nation with his win in the US Open. pages for full details of how to win this Thompson. Who will win? We’ll find out at the Laureus This year there is a very strong British feel to World Sports Awards at Central Hall, money-can’t-buy prize in the coming weeks. Picture: ACTION IMAGES the Awards, nowhere more so than in the Westminster, on Monday 6 February.

YOHAN BLAKE MO FARAH PETRA KVITOVA RORY MCILROY LI NA OSCAR PISTORIUS (Jamaica) Athletics (United Kingdom) Athletics (Czech Republic) Tennis (United Kingdom) Golf (China) Tennis (South Africa) Athletics At 21, he won the 100m gold Became the first British man to At 21, she beat Maria Rory McIlroy captured his first In 2011, Li Na became China’s Oscar Pistorius became the medal in the World win a World Championship gold Sharapova in straight sets to Major title in 2011 when he first winner of a grand slam first amputee to win a non- Championships in Daegu. medal in the 5,000m, also win Wimbledon, her first ever won the US Open by eight when she defeated Francesca disabled World Championship Blake also won gold as a winning silver in the 10,000m. grand slam. The Czech’s other shots. It was an emotional Schiavone to win the French track medal, as a member of member of the Jamaican Earlier in the year, he won highlight came in October when victory for McIlroy, who had Open. Earlier she had reached the South African silver medal 4x100m relay team, in a 3,000m gold in the European she won the WTA blown a four-shot lead in the the final of the Australian Open – winning 4x400m relay team. world record 37.04 seconds. Indoor Championship. Was Championships in Istanbul, Masters weeks earlier with a another first for a Chinese player He also reached the semi- In September he ran the named 2011 European Athlete defeating Victoria Azarenka in final round 80. At 22, he - beating world No1 Caroline finals of the individual 400m. second fastest 200m of all of the Year. Born in Somalia, he three sets. Left-hander Kvitova became the youngest US Open Wozniacki in the semi-final, but Born without fibulae, he runs time in 19.26 secs. moved to Britain aged eight. is known for her powerful serve. winner since 1923. losing in the final to Kim Clijsters. with carbon fibre ‘blades’. THE NOMINEES CITYA.M. 24 JANUARY 2012 Sport 33 Djokovic foils gutsy Hewitt SPORT | IN BRIEF Lampard to miss QPR cup clash FOOTBALL: Chelsea will be without Frank Lampard for Saturday’s eagerly Djokovic completed an 18th anticipated FA Cup fourth round tie World No1 survives straight grand slam win against west London rivals QPR at with victory over Hewitt Loftus Road. Lampard was taken off scare against local with a calf injury at half time during Picture: ACTION IMAGES Saturday’s 0-0 draw at Norwich, but the hero to book place midfielder is expected to return in time in quarter-finals for the trip to Swansea on 31 January. Raikkonen back in the saddle REIGNING champion Novak Djokovic FORMULA ONE: Former world champi- hailed his first major test of the year on Kimi Raikkonen impressed on his first after extinguishing a rousing come- day of testing for Lotus after a two-year back from home favourite Lleyton absence from the sport, according to the Hewitt to claim his place in the team’s trackside operations director Australian Open quarter-finals. Alan Permane. “From the first run he World No1 Djokovic lost his way was pretty much there,” he said of the after racing into a two-set lead and, Finn. The 32-year-old was driving a two- having allowed faded star Hewitt to year-old Renault R30 at Valencia’s claw one back, was forced to save Ricardo Tormo circuit in Spain and F1’s break points at 1-1 in the fourth testing restrictions mean he will have to before prevailing 6-1, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3. wait until next month to race the team’s Success in an 18th consecutive car for the coming season. Raikkonen grand slam match swept the added: “It was nice to get back in the Wimbledon and US Open champion car. It’s a few years since I last drove.” into a last-eight meeting with Spain’s David Ferrer, and kept him on course Brown a doubt for Calcutta Cup for a semi-final date with Britain’s RUGBY UNION: Saracens flanker Kelly Andy Murray. Brown is a major doubt for Scotland’s Yet he betrayed a rare vulnerability Six Nations opener against England at at times as wild card Hewitt, roared Murrayfield next Saturday. Brown suf- on by the Melbourne crowd, scented a fered a leg injury in Sunday’s Heineken famous upset – which the Serb put Cup win over Benetton Treviso. down to a lack of big-match practise in recent months. Djokovic had dropped just 10 DRAW | QUARTER-FINALS “I think it’s good, it’s just that small games on his way to the last 16 and part – maybe 45 minutes, one hour – maintained that pace early on against Men’s Singles where I wasn’t playing well and he Hewitt, who was unable to hold serve did. It happens,” said Djokovic, who until the fifth game of the second set. N Djokovic [1] v D Ferrer enjoyed an extraordinary but punish- The Australian, a former world No1 A Murray [4] v K Nishikori ing 2011. now languishing at 181 in the rank- JM Del Potro [11] v R Federer [3] “I just have to keep on going. I’m ings, redoubled his efforts to force a T Berdych [7] v R Nadal [2] confident that physically it’s not fourth set but could not deny going to affect me too much. I’m not Djokovic a meeting with fifth seed looking for excuses, but I’m saying it’s Ferrer, who beat Frenchman Richard Women’s Singles obviously the first match that I’ve Gasquet in straight sets. C Wozniacki [1] v K Clijsters [11] been tested. It was against the player On a day of shock performances, V Azarenka [3] v A Radwanska [8] that I expected to be tested. Lleyton Kei Nishikori upset sixth seed Jo- was playing in front of his crowd. Wilfried Tsonga in five sets to become E Makarova v M Sharapova [4] Obviously he loves competing against the first Japanese player in the last S Errani v P Kvitova [2] the top guys on the big stage, and he eight for 80 years. He meets Britain’s proved it again.” Andy Murray next. Matches today and tomorrow Unseeded Makarova dumps Serena

FIVE-TIME champion Serena Williams blamed a litany of No56. She added: “I never blame any injury I have because mistakes after crashing out of the Australian Open to I feel like she played really well and deserved the win." unseeded Russian Ekaterina Makarova. Makarova, who will meet compatriot and fourth seed The American was guilty of seven double faults and 37 Maria Sharapova in the quarter-finals, said: “I won against unforced errors as Makarova claimed the most notable Serena – that’s amazing. I'm surprised but I was feeling so scalp of her career 6-2, 6-3. good and so focused.” “She played really well, she went for broke on a lot of Sharapova, chasing her first grand slam since her 2008 shots,” said Williams, a 13-time grand slam winner. “I made Melbourne triumph, came from behind to beat Germany’s 37 errors and that pretty much told the story of the Sabine Lisicki 3-6, 6-2, 6-3. match.” Second seed Petra Kvitova advanced to the last eight Williams, who struggled with an ankle ailment before with a 6-2, 7-6 (7-2) victory over former Wimbledon cham- the tournament, admitted to being short of full fitness but pion Ana Ivanovic. Kvitova will next face Italy’s Sara Errani, insisted it was not the cause of her defeat to the world who beat China’s Zheng Jie. Results =FFK98CC KF;8PËJ;@8IP 9cl\JhlXi\9\kGi\d`\i19Xiifnm>i`djYp#9Xk_:`kpm 8c]i\kfeKe#i\\emNi\o_Xd#?Xp\jP\X[`e^ Jflk_Xdgkfe%%%%%% '  ' C\`Z\jk\i%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% )  ) :Xic`e^:lgJ\d`$=`eXcJ\Zfe[C\^ m;Xic`e^kfe#B\kk\i`e^m>Xk\j_\X[#B`[[\id`ejk\im  El^\ek(, :Xi[`]] ' m:ipjkXcGXcXZ\ ( %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% Pfib#C`eZfce:`kpmJflk_gfik#JkfZbgfikm8=:K\c]fi[% 8kk1)(#'(+ D`ccj)- egfn\iC\X^l\Fe\ Jflk_1Xjhl\k =iX  egfn\iC\X^l\Knf :I@:BYi YkDBlblj_b`e BXq -$( 8=:N`dYc\[femDXZZc\j]`\c[%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% =flik_K\jkDXkZ_Ç[Xp(f],18ljkiXc`Xm@e[`X -$(($'i\k2 ( E;afbfm`Z J\i YkC?\n`kk 8lj -$(-$* KfihlXpm;X^\e_XdI\[Yi`[^\%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 8[\cX`[\#d`[e`^_k % +$--$*2 )+ BE`j_`bfi` Age Yk - A$NKjfe^X =iX  :cp[\j[Xc\9XebJZfkk`j_Gi\d`\iC\X^l\ K_`i[Le[\i(0Fe\;Xp@ek\ieXk`feXc19Xe^cX[\j_m )$--$)-$(*$--$*%Nfd\eËjJ`e^c\j+k_i[1< Dfk_\in\ccm;le]\idc`e\%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% iflgK_i\\ :ife[fe DJ_XiXgfmX Ilj Yk (+ JC`j`Zb` >\i *$--$)-$*2J =fi]XimJk`ic`e^ .%*' %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% GXib>fc]:clY#iflg; i[1C?lY\i LJ8 :=c\d`e^ >Yi YkML_c`ifmX :q\  >_XeXm9fkjnXeX +gd %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% Kl`e\X .gd %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 8ljkiXc`XeFg\e D\cYflie\ % email [email protected] 34 Sport

Balotelli Redknapp used hit with FA charge account in dog’s

▲ FOOTBALL name for bungs, MANCHESTER CITY striker Mario Balotelli could miss tomorrow’s Carling Cup semi- final second leg against Liverpool and three crucial court told Premier League games after he was charged with violent con- duct by the Football Association for appearing to stamp on l Trial begins into claims 64-year-old avoided tax Tottenham’s Scott Parker. The Italian striker, who won l Jury told Spurs boss had secret Monaco account and converted the decisive penalty in Sunday’s 3-2 win over l Spurs just eight minutes after Redknapp and Mandaric deny charges committing the alleged offence which referee Howard Webb failed to spot at the time, has ▲ FOOTBALL ing obligatory income tax and until tomorrow evening to BY FRANK DALLERES National Insurance contributions. respond to the charge. Redknapp, sitting behind bullet- Should Balotelli decide to TOTTENHAM manager Harry proof glass in the courtroom, was appeal he will be available for Redknapp received “bungs” totalling supported at the trial by his son tomorrow’s clash at Anfield, in almost £200,000 into an offshore Jamie, a former England midfielder which City will be looking to account in the name of his pet dog turned media pundit, and executives overturn a 1-0 first leg deficit, and deliberately dodged paying tax from Tottenham. with a hearing likely to take on the sums, a court heard yesterday. A packed courtroom heard that place later this week. Redknapp, who is widely tipped to Mandaric made the first of two pay- An acceptance of the charge, succeed Fabio Capello as England ments to Redknapp’s “Rosie 47” however, will see the 21-year-old head coach in the summer, appeared account in 2002 and the second on 21 miss out tomorrow and will pre- in the dock at Southwark Crown April 2004. In 2008 Redknapp vent him from playing in league Court yesterday for the first day of a instructed his Monaco bank to close matches against Everton, high-profile trial expected to be con- the account and transfer his $207,000 Fulham and Aston Villa. cluded next week. balance to his London HSBC account, Meanwhile, Spurs striker The 64-year-old was accused of Mr Black said. Jermain Defoe, who scored and accepting bonus payments of £93,100 Redknapp did not disclose the then came within a whisker of and £96,300 relating to his time in “Rosie 47” account’s existence until winning Sunday’s epic Premier charge of Portsmouth from the club’s 2006, when he declared it to the League summit meeting, insists then-chairman Milan Mandaric, who Stevens Inquiry into corruption in his side remain in the title is also accused. Both men deny the English football, the prosecution frame despite the agonising charges. added. He did not mention it to HM nature of their defeat. The sums were paid into an Revenue and Customs when, between “We will keep going. We have account opened by Redknapp in 2004 and 2006, they investigated a got some big games coming Monaco under the name “Rosie 47”, £300,000 payment the former West up – games that we can get an amalgamation of his dog’s name Ham manager received in relation to points from. We’ll be fine,” said and the year of his birth, the prosecu- the transfer of Rio Ferdinand from Defoe, whose side now trail tion alleged. the Hammers to Leeds in November league leaders City by eight “These payments were a bung or 2000, it was claimed. points. offshore bonus that the parties had Redknapp earned bonuses equiva- “There are not many teams absolutely no intention of paying lent to five per cent of profit on play- that can come to Manchester taxes for,” John Black QC, for the pros- er transfers while Portsmouth City and get points or perform ecution, said. manager, the court was told. In his like we did. Mr Black added that Monaco previous role as the club’s director of “It was a tough game but we accounts were known for obscuring football, he was entitled to 10 per really performed, so there are a money trails and that “both parties cent, Mr Black added. lot of positives we can take.” must have known” they were avoid- The trial continues. Murray blasts boring win Palace boss Freedman piles the as Brit bags last-eight slot

▲ pressure on Cardiff’s bottlers TENNIS ing,” said Murray. “There was nothing Y RANK ALLERES happening. I didn’t have to do any- B F D ▲ thing, just hit the ball in court and he FOOTBALL ing positions in the league to miss Antony Gardner’s first leg goal which BRITAIN’S Andy Murray described his wasn’t running. He was making mis- out on automatic promotion to the has put Palace within touching dis- BY JAMES GOLDMAN 49-minute win over Mikhail takes the first or second ball of the Premier League and have failed in the tance of reaching their first cup final Kukushkin as “boring” and “point- rally. That was it. It was pointless.” CRYSTAL PALACE manager Dougie play-offs in each of the last two sea- of any sort in 22 years. less” after taking his place in the The easiest of victories means Freedman has risked a Cardiff back- sons. “I think they are under more pres- Australian Open quarter-finals. Murray will meet Japan’s Kei lash by depicting the Welsh side as Now under the guidance of Malky sure to succeed,” said Freedman. “In The fourth seed was leading 6-1, 6-1, Nishikori in the last eight tomorrow “nearly men” ahead of tonight’s MacKay the Bluebirds are again hand- the play-off games they have always 1-0 when his Kazakh opponent, and remains on course for a semi- Carling Cup semi final second leg. ily placed in the Championship, but been a nearly team, nearly getting ranked 92 in the world, was forced to final with world No1 and defending Under previous manager Dave their path to a third Wembley visit in there. We are just enjoying ourselves retire with a hip injury. “It was bor- champion Novak Djokovic. Jones, Cardiff wasted several promis- four years has been complicated by and nobody thought we’d get here.” MAKAROVA AND OUT 35 SERENA DUMPED OUT OF AUSTRALIAN OPEN BY UNSEEDED RUSSIAN: PAGE 33

I’m ready to play every week, vows REDKNAPP TRIAL: NEED TO KNOW Arsenal starlet Oxlade-Chamberlain WHAT IS HARRY REDKNAPP short term he will be Q A CHARGED WITH? unable to take training &

Q. ▲ Redknapp is accused of conceal- sessions for the duration. FOOTBALL versatile 18-year-old attacker after 73 having his first Premier League start A. ing two payments, of $145,000 His assistants Joe Jordan and Kevin BY JAMES GOLDMAN encouraging minutes drew stinging cut short. (£93,100) and $150,000 (£96,300), Bond will take charge of the first criticism from fans and appeared to “I was happy to first get a start,” said from the taxman to avoid income team in the interim. ARSENAL winger Alex Oxlade- be met with equal astonishment from Oxlade-Chamberlain. “That is a posi- tax and National Insurance contri- Chamberlain hopes his eye-catching club captain Robin van Persie. tive for me to take away, having the butions. The payments are alleged WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR THE performance against Manchester But Oxlade-Chamberlain, signed boss’s trust. I’ve got to just make sure to have been made into a Monaco Q. ENGLAND JOB? United on Sunday will be enough to from Southampton in the summer for that I repay that with my performanc- bank account between April 2002 In the longer term, a guilty ver- convince Arsene Wenger he is worthy a fee that could eventually rise to es and just working hard in training and April 2004 and to relate to A. dict may jeopardise his of a regular first team place. £15m, is confident the Frenchman and when I’m on the pitch. I’ve got to Redknapp’s time in charge of Tottenham position and his status Wenger’s decision to withdraw the has confidence in his abilities despite make sure I keep my place now.” Portsmouth. He denies the charges. as favourite to replace Fabio Capello as England manager this summer. WHO ELSE IS INVOLVED IN THE Sunderland boss Martin O’Neill has Q. CASE? been mooted as an alternative, but Milan Mandaric, who was there is a chronic shortage of suc- A. Portsmouth chairman at the cessful home-grown candidates. time and is alleged to have made MONTE-CARLO RALLY 2012. the payments, is also accused of two COULD REDKNAPP BE SENT TO counts of cheating the public rev- Q. JAIL? YOU CAN’T CONTROL THE ELEMENTS, enue. He denies the charges. Serbia- If found guilty, Redknapp could born American citizen Mandaric is A. be fined or given a custodial now chairman of Sheffield sentence. The decision will be made BUT YOU CAN WIN THE RACE. Wednesday. by the judge, Anthony Leonard QC, who in November lifted a ban on HOW LONG WILL THE TRIAL reporting details of the proceedings. Q. LAST? The trial is expected to last up WHO IS ON THE 12-PERSON A. to two weeks, with hearings Q. JURY? every day at Southwark Crown Eight men and four women Court starting at 10am and finish- A. were yesterday sworn in as ing at 4:30pm. jurors, having been warned by Judge Leonard that they must IS REDKNAPP STILL ABLE TO declare any allegiance for or against Q. MANAGE TOTTENHAM? the defendants or their clubs. Redknapp will attend and is “Leave all prejudice and favour A. required to arrive 45 minutes behind,” he told them. They were before the jury and leave 45 min- also told not to read media coverage utes after they depart, so in the of the trial.

ON THE BENCH | THE LEGAL TEAMS MILAN MANDARIC Mandaric is represented by Lord Ken MacDonald QC (left), the decorated former Director of Public Prosecutions, now of Matrix Chambers HARRY REDKNAPP Redknapp is represented by the highly regarded John Kelsey-Fry QC (right), of the City’s Cloth Fair Chambers, who has previously acted for footballer Steven Gerrard and jockey Kieren Fallon THE PROSECUTION John Black QC, an experienced specialist in criminal cases of 18 Red Lion Court Chambers, is acting for the prosecution

Cook promises to lead

fightback from the front Congratulations to the winners of the 2012 Monte-Carlo Rally. At the Monte-Carlo Rally more than anywhere else, driving conditions can change several times during the race. That’s why this year, once again, drivers ▲ CRICKET the Sheikh Zyed Cricket Stadium needed to have confidence in their tyres’ ability to adapt. With MICHELIN tyres BY JAMES GOLDMAN heavily favours the batsmen and they got excellent performance, whatever the weather or terrain. should offer Cook and Strauss the ENGLAND batsman Alastair Cook chance to ensure England gain a You could also benefit from the expertise MICHELIN has derived from motorsport insists he and fellow opener Andrew foothold in the second Test which with the MICHELIN Pilot Sport 3 and MICHELIN Pilot Alpin. Strauss should be trusted to create a starts tomorrow. Experience the performance at www.michelin.com/experience-the-performance platform from which their side can “It’s our job to lay the platform. strike back against Pakistan. We didn’t do that in Dubai,” Cook England trail the three-match said. “We can put it right. We made series 1-0 after last week’s 10-wicket some poor decisions as a unit. To defeat in Dubai which featured two score runs you have to make good abject batting collapses. The pitch at decisions over a long period.”