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SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT UDC 316.35(470.12) © Gulin K.A. © Dementieva I.N. Protest sentiments of the region’s population in crisis One form of social protest is the protest sentiments of the population, i.e., the expression of extreme dissatisfaction with their position in the current situation. In the present paper we make an attempt to trace the dynamics of protest potential in the region, draw a social portrait of the inhabitants of the region prone to protest behavior, identify the most important factors determining the formation of a latent protest activity, and identify the causes of the relative stability of protest potential in the region during the economic crisis. The study was conducted on the basis of statistics and results of regular monitoring held by ISEDT RAS in the Vologda region. Social conflict, protest behavior, protest potential, community, monitoring, social management, public opinion, crisis, socio-economic situation. Konstantin A. GULIN Ph.D. in History, Deputy Director of ISEDT RAS [email protected] Irina N. DEMENTIEVA Junior scientific associate of ISEDT RAS [email protected] In the contradictory trends in the socio- One form of conflict expressions is social economic development of territories and the protest. The concept of “social protest” in modern sociological literature covers a rather population’s material welfare, the issue of wide range of phenomena. In its most general socio-psychological climate in society, the form protest means “strong objection to escalation of internal contradictions and anything, a statement of disagreement with conflicts is being updated. anything, the reluctance of something” [1]. 46 3 (15) 2011 Economical and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT K.A. Gulin, I.N. Dementieva Social protest is considered as “challenging”, Since 1995, within the regular monitoring “denial” of the entire social reality, the very of public opinion in the territory of the Vologda principles of social organization, and the oblast the Institute of Socio-Economic rejection of any individual parts of political Development of Territories of RAS has been life, the resentment of the existing orders and tracking the major trends in the protest institutions of government in general, and sentiments of the region’s population1. The opposition to certain tendencies in politics [2]. protest potential is made up by the respondents Mass protest can be organized or who answer the question: “What measures are spontaneous, direct or indirect, have the you willing to take to protect your interests?” character of violence or nonviolence. There in the following way: “I will take part in a rally, can be the following forms of protest: rallies, demonstration”; “will participate in strikes, demonstrations, picketing, campaign of protests”; “if necessary, I will take arms, civil disobedience, strikes, hunger strikes, go out to the barricades”. The idea is that absenteeism, “protest vote”, terrorism, a person admits the possibility of his or her extremist actions, complaints, appeals to the participation in protests. Thus, the “protest courts, armed struggle, etc. [3]. group” is made up with the residents of the In modern literature there are various region, characterized by a certain emotional conceptual approaches to the definition of mood, which is not always identical to the models and forms of protest activity. In this active social behavior. case, the majority of researchers, talking The research of potential propensity of about social protest, mean primarily the people to participate in protest actions allows phenomena of active social action, real social us to analyze various aspects of the phenomenon behavior, focused at more or less profound of social protest: First, it allows clarifying the social transformation, open population’s nature of protest sentiments, namely, the confrontation with the existing structures mechanism of formation of attitudes of social of authority and actions against the areas of discontent, as well as sources and factors government policy. contributing to the accumulation of protest However, the peculiarity of the modern sentiments. Secondly, the study of protest period in Russia is the weakening expression sentiments helps to trace their escalating into of social disturbance at the behavioral level, aggressive action, to identify trends in public the development of latent forms of protest opinion, which stimulate or, alternatively, limit the realization of social discontent at the activity. So, according to statistics, since 2007 behavioral level. to 2009 the number of workers involved in strikes in Russia decreased from 2.9 to 0.01 1 The surveys are conducted 6 times a year on the even thousand people [4]. months. The total number of the polled is 1500 respondents At the same time, according to the Analytical in the cities of Vologda and Cherepovets, the Districts of Babayevo, Veliky Ustyug, Vozhega, Gryazovets, Kirillov, Center of Yuri Levada, in 2009 – 2010, 27% of Nikolsk, Tarnoga, Sheksna. Russia’s population considered mass protests The sample representativeness is provided by the following in the cities (areas) of their residence as conditions: - Ratio between urban and rural populations; possible, 20% did not exclude the likelihood of - Ratio between the inhabitants of settlements of their participation in these actions [5]. various types (rural settlements, small and medium-sized In this regard, the identification and cities); measurement of protest sentiments, i.e., the - Sex and age structure of the adult population of the oblast. potential propensity of people to participate in The method of the survey is a poll by the place of protests are becoming particularly relevant and respondents’ residence. significant. Sampling error does not exceed 3%. Economical and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 3 (15) 2011 47 Protest sentiments of the region’s population in crisis Table 1. Dynamics of major indicators of economic development of the Russian Federation and the Vologda Oblast, in % 2008 to 2007 2009 to 2008 2010 to 2009 Indicator RF VO RF VO RF VO Industrial Production Index 102.1 94.7 89.2 87.6 108.2 110.7 The index of agricultural products 110.8 99.5 101.2 97.3 88.1 92.8 The volume of retail trade 113.0 106.7 94.5 82.6 104.4 110.9 The volume of paid services 104.9 103.2 95.7 95.6 101.5 97.8 Real cash income 104.7 101.6 103.7 92.8 103.8 104.4 Registered unemployment rate, % 2.0 1.9 2.8 3.7 2.5 2.4 Source: Data from the Federal State Statistics Service (http://www.gks.ru). Thirdly, the analysis of protest sentiments regional levels, the pre-crisis values for any of is needed to identify the social base, i.e., the the indicators have not yet been achieved. category of persons who are likely to be engaged To analyze the main trends of socio- in active protest actions. economic status, socio-political sentiments In this paper we analyzed the results of and social well-being of the population in the opinion polls conducted by ISEDT RAS in the economic crisis, we used index analysis. Vologda oblast, which reflect the level of protest The method of index constructing allows to potential in the region, its social basis, the reveal the proportion of positive and negative factors which determine the formation of a sentiments in society, to track dynamic changes latent protest activity. The article proposes the in population estimates, and to assess the further development of provisions nominated current social situation in terms of further by the author earlier, contained in earlier papers development of the country and the region. on this subject [6]. 9 particular indexes have been calculated. A significant economic downturn, which The empirical base for indexes calculation is came at the end of 2008 – the first half of 2009 the data of regular monitoring conducted by affected Russia in general, and affected the ISEDT RAS in the Vologda Oblast. economic and social development of each To calculate each index the proportion of region. Among the territories most affected by negative responses is subtracted out of the the crisis, was the Vologda Oblast. proportion of positive ones, then to the In 2010, mixed trends were observed in the resulting value 100 is added, in order not to development of economic and social sphere of have negative values. Thus, totally negative the Vologda oblast (tab. 1). On the one hand, responses would give the general index of 0, there was an increase in industrial production, totally positive – 200, the balance of the first the population’s real incomes increased, the and second – 100 index, which is a neutral situation in the market of consumer goods marker per se. Index value exceeding the improved, the level of registered unemployment border of 100 points confirms the prevalence decreased. On the other hand, the decline of of positive evaluations. Index value below agricultural production continued. With the 100 points shows that the negative estimates overall growth of real incomes the volume of dominate the positive ones. paid services to population is reducing, which Indices calculated by this method are is an indicator of the dominance of a limited combined into three groups. The indices model of consumption. included in the first group, reflect the Vologda Despite the measures to overcome the oblast population’s perceptions about the consequences of the crisis taken at federal and economic situation of the country and the 48 3 (15) 2011 Economical and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT K.A. Gulin,