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Budget 2015: a Balancing 26 October 2015 Budget 2016: The right focus We believe Budget 2016 has the right focus in balancing economic Malaysia Strategy growth and maintaining fiscal discipline. We expect decent GDP expansion in 2016 that we believe would be conducive to earnings growth. We forecast an overall fully-diluted EPS contraction of 2.4% yoy in 2015 before rebounding to 7.4% yoy growth in 2016. KLCI The macro environment 1,710 @ 23 October 2015 For 2015, the federal government still believes that GDP growth between 4.5% and 5.5% is achievable. The current account is expected to remain in NEUTRAL (maintain) the surplus range of 1.5-2.5% of GNI, while inflation is anticipated to be 2- 2.5%. For 2016, GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4-5%, current account surplus at 0.5-1.5%, and inflation at a wider range of 2-3%. 2015 KLCI Target: 1,600 Domestic demand to drive GDP growth We forecast 5% GDP growth in 2015 and 5% in 2016. At first glance, the 4- Narrowing government fiscal deficit 5% range in 2016 looks unexciting. However, closer examination reveals that the government is expecting resilient domestic demand but with a bigger drag from the external environment. It sees domestic demand rising 5.9% this year and 5.5% in 2016 versus our 6% and 5.8% forecasts, respectively. Instilling fiscal discipline The government has made clear its intention on fiscal discipline. In 2015, it expects to hit the 3.2% fiscal deficit target, or RM37bn. Development expenditure is on track at RM47.4bn from its original allocation of RM48.5bn. As for 2016, the projected fiscal deficit is 3.1% of GDP (or Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg RM38.8bn), a marginal decline but trending in the right direction. Gross development expenditure is higher at RM50bn, highlighting the balance KLCI vs MSCI World vs MSCI AxJ between spending on economic growth and maintaining fiscal discipline. (YTD) 20% Sector implications 15% MSCI AxJ -6.7% We believe the key winner is the Construction sector as the Budget spells 10% out the timeline for project implementation in 2016. Other potential 5% MSCI World -1.2% beneficiaries are Plantations (Vision City), Rubber Products (reinvestment 0% -5% allowances) and Telcos (prepaid GST rebate). However, minimum wages FBMKLCI -2.9% could affect a few sectors more, such as Plantations, Timber and Tech. -10% -15% Our overall take on Budget 2016 -20% Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-15 Jan-15 Jun-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 We are neutral to slightly positive on Budget 2016, as generally the May-15 measures introduced have been widely expected, with no untoward Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg negative developments. For the time being, we retain our Neutral stance on the KLCI with an official year-end target of 1,600 points. Sneak preview: peering into 2016 Undoubtedly, markets have been tough with multiple headwinds in 2015. Nonetheless, Malaysia has weathered all these major challenges relatively unscathed, both on the federal fiscal position and GDP growth. As we look into 2016, there are still risks but we find that Malaysia is navigating from a Kevin Low position of strength with diversified sources of growth, deep financial (603) 2146 7479 markets, a strong banking system, and a low unemployment rate. As long [email protected] as macro parameters such as crude oil prices, low loan defaults, healthy labour market, property prices and consumer sentiment hold steady, we see an emerging case of a conducive environment for earnings growth. Research Team (603) 2146 7599 Risks [email protected] Upside/downside risks are a strengthening/weakening of Ringgit, a rise/fall in Brent oil prices, and wider earnings growth/contraction. Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U) (Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd) Page 1 of 22 26 October 2015 The right focus Hitting the nail on the head The Budget 2016 theme of “Prospering the Rakyat” encapsulates the current pressing issues in Malaysia. It balances boosting economic growth with the need of fiscal discipline while at the same time ensuring help for the bottom 40% of household. The Federal government is still expecting GDP growth in the range of 4.5- 5.5% in 2015 versus our 5% expectation, driven by domestic expenditure. Despite generally weaker external environment, it continues to see a current account surplus in the range of 1.5-2.5% of GNI and inflation to be subdued in the 2% and 2.5% range. In 2016, domestic expenditure should continue to drive GDP growth but it expects a lower range of between 4% and 5%, while our GDP forecast is perched at the high end of 5%. Current account surplus is expected to narrow in 2016 to between 0.5% and 1.5% of GNI. Inflation rate is anticipated to be within a higher range of 2-3% against this year. Key economic indicators Government Affin Hwang 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E GDP growth (%) 4.5-5.5 4.0-5.0 5.0 5.0 Current account surplus 1.5-2.5 0.5-1.5 2.8 n/a (% of GNI) Inflation (%) 2.0-2.5 2.0-3.0 2.3 2.5-3.0 Source: MOF, Affin Hwang Meanwhile, the federal government has made clear its commitment on fiscal consolidation, with the key consideration of achieving a balanced budget in 2020. In 2015, it expects to meet its 3.2% fiscal deficit target, which translates into RM37bn. Some small variation in development expenditure but it is more or less tracking the original RM48.5bn allocation (most current 2015 is RM47.4bn). The target for 2016 is a 3.1% fiscal deficit. While just marginally lower, the trajectory is downward as public sector finance is still transitioning to the new environment. In absolute terms, the deficit is RM38.8bn. Gross development expenditure is higher at RM50bn for 2016, highlighting the delicate balance needed to spur economic growth under the constraints of bringing down the fiscal deficit. Fiscal deficit target Government Affin Hwang 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E Fiscal deficit target - (%) -3.2 -3.1 -3.2 -3.0 - (RM) 37.0bn 38.8bn 37.0bn 37.7bn Gross development 48.5bn 50.0bn 48.5bn 50.4bn expenditure (RM) Source: MOF, Affin Hwang 26 October 2015 Our take We believe that the government is adopting the right focus on sustainability by balancing growth and the fiscal position. Moreover, the introduction of the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) takes policy makers’ focus away from the noise residing in annual fluctuations and trains their attention over a three-year period. Another reason we like this is because it puts a lot of emphasis on optimising government operating expenditure, which we believe is an area that has been the source of drag to government finances for many years now. On the surface, the government’s GDP growth target for 2016 is unexciting at a lower range of 4-5% for 2016, versus 4.5-5.5% for 2015. However, closer examination reveals that the government is expecting reasonably resilient domestic demand with a bigger drag from net trade. It does seem like the government has factored in a more prudent picture on external trade given the scare on emerging market growth this year. Just to give a sense, we are estimating domestic demand to grow 6% in 2015 while the government is looking at about the same at 5.9%. The difference is that we see net trade contracting 11.3% versus 12.3% by the government. As for 2016, we are looking at 5.8% domestic demand with net trade decline of 1% but government is forecasting 5.5% and 4.4% drop, respectively. That explains the 4-5% GDP growth range for the government. The key point to make here is that although our GDP forecast is at the top end of the government’s range, the underlying resilience of the domestic economy is supportive of earnings growth, in our view. The importance of domestic economy is apparent constituting 92.3% of GDP in 2015, up from 91.5% in 2014. GDP growth 2015E 2016F %yoy 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F MOF MOF GDP by Expenditure Components Total Consumption 7.7 7.0 6.4 5.7 5.8 6.1 5.7 Private consumption expenditure 8.3 7.2 7.0 6.2 6.5 6.8 6.4 Public consumption expenditure 5.4 5.9 4.4 3.8 3.0 3.6 3.0 Total Investment 19.0 8.2 4.8 6.7 5.9 5.2 5.1 Private investment expenditure 21.4 12.8 11.0 10.0 8.0 7.3 6.7 Public investment expenditure 15.9 1.9 -4.7 1.0 2.0 1.6 2.3 Domestic Demand 10.7 7.3 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.5 Net exports -25.1 -9.8 12.8 -11.3 -1.0 -12.3 -4.4 Exports -1.7 0.3 5.1 -2.0 3.0 -0.8 0.9 Imports 2.9 1.7 4.2 -0.7 3.5 0.8 1.5 GDP (2010 real prices) 5.5 4.7 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.5-5.5 4.0-5.0 GDP By Kind of Economic Activity Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 1.0 1.9 2.1 -2.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 Mining and Quarrying 1.6 1.2 3.3 8.0 4.0 3.5 4.0 Manufacturing 4.4 3.4 6.2 5.0 5.5 4.5 4.3 Construction 18.1 10.8 11.8 9.0 7.5 8.8 8.4 Services 6.5 6.0 6.5 5.5 5.3 5.7 5.4 GDP (2010 real prices) 5.5 4.7 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.5-5.5 4.0-5.0 Source: MOF, Affin Hwang In fact, Malaysia has been able to navigate the headwinds such as the sharp decline in crude oil prices, drop in CPO prices, weakening Ringgit, volatility in global financial markets, slowdown in regional emerging markets, and lower consumer sentiments quite well.
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