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Understanding the Increase in Voting Rates Between the 2011 and 2015 Federal Elections

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Understanding the Increase in Voting Rates Between the 2011 and 2015 Federal Elections Catalogue no. 75-006-X ISSN 2291-0840 Insights on Canadian Society Understanding the increase in voting rates between the 2011 and 2015 federal elections by Sharanjit Uppal and Sébastien LaRochelle-Côté Release date: October 12, 2016 How to obtain more information For information about this product or the wide range of services and data available from Statistics Canada, visit our website, www.statcan.gc.ca. You can also contact us by email at [email protected] telephone, from Monday to Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., at the following toll-free numbers: • Statistical Information Service 1-800-263-1136 • National telecommunications device for the hearing impaired 1-800-363-7629 • Fax line 1-877-287-4369 Depository Services Program • Inquiries line 1-800-635-7943 • Fax line 1-800-565-7757 Standards of service to the public Standard table symbols Statistics Canada is committed to serving its clients in a prompt, The following symbols are used in Statistics Canada reliable and courteous manner. To this end, Statistics Canada has publications: developed standards of service that its employees observe. To . not available for any reference period obtain a copy of these service standards, please contact Statistics .. not available for a specific reference period Canada toll-free at 1-800-263-1136. The service standards are ... not applicable also published on www.statcan.gc.ca under “Contact us” > 0 true zero or a value rounded to zero “Standards of service to the public.” 0s value rounded to 0 (zero) where there is a meaningful distinction between true zero and the value that was rounded p preliminary Note of appreciation r revised Canada owes the success of its statistical system to a x suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements long-standing partnership between Statistics Canada, the of the Statistics Act citizens of Canada, its businesses, governments and other E use with caution institutions. Accurate and timely statistical information could not F too unreliable to be published be produced without their continued co-operation and goodwill. * significantly different from reference category (p < 0.05) Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada © Minister of Industry, 2016 All rights reserved. Use of this publication is governed by the Statistics Canada Open Licence Agreement. An HTML version is also available. Cette publication est aussi disponible en français. Understanding the increase in voting rates between the 2011 and 2015 federal elections by Sharanjit Uppal and Sébastien LaRochelle-Côté Overview of the study This study examines the changes in the voting rates of Canadian citizens between the 2011 and 2015 federal elections, on the basis of supplementary questions that were added to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) shortly after these elections. The focus is on population groups who saw the largest increases in voting rates over the period. • Between the 2011 and 2015 federal elections, the voting rate increased by 7 percentage points. The rates increased faster among younger individuals than among older Canadians. • Young people with a higher level of education are particularly more likely to vote than their less- educated counterparts. Among individuals aged 25 to 34 in 2015, the participation rate of those who had a university degree was 42 percentage points higher than those who had not completed high school. • Between 2011 and 2015, the voting rate increased by 15 percentage points among Aboriginal people (i.e. First Nations living off reserve, Métis and Inuit). This compared with a 7 percentage point increase for the Canadian-born non-Aboriginal population, and a 6 percentage point increase among immigrants who had Canadian citizenship. • Between 2011 and 2015, recent immigrants (who were Canadian citizens) from Africa and from West Central Asia and the Middle East increased their voting rates by 25 and 22 percentage points, respectively. • In 2015, about 20% of overall voters were immigrants who had Canadian citizenship, and slightly more than 2% of voters reported an Aboriginal identity (First Nations living off-reserve, Métis or Inuit). Introduction It is often said, notably among political scientists, that After each federal election, Elections Canada calculates political participation is the foundation of democracy.1 the official turnout rate as the number of ballots cast Voting is the most common and easily measured divided by the total registered population. Between indicator of political participation by citizens in a 1867 and 1988, the turnout rate was 70% or higher in democracy. Political participation can influence public more than three-quarters of the elections.3 The voting policy; hence, the lower voting rates of some population rate declined in subsequent years4 and reached a record groups could result in policies that do not necessarily low in 2008, registering just below 59%. Between 2011 represent their views or preferences. and 2015, the turnout rate jumped from 61.1% to 68.3%, one of the largest changes over two consecutive Canadian studies on voter turnout have used both survey elections since Confederation (Chart 1). and administrative data to study the phenomena of voting patterns.2 Most of these studies have shown that Other studies have examined the decline in turnout certain groups—including the young, the less-educated, rate during the 1990s. According to one study, the immigrants and the less-wealthy—consistently vote at a vast majority of the decline can be explained by recent lower rate than others. cohorts of younger people not voting as much as older Statistics Canada — October 2016 Insights on Canadian Society / 1 Understanding the increase in voting rates between the 2011 and 2015 federal elections How to calculate voter Chart 1 turnout with survey data Voting rates in Canadian federal elections, 1867 to 2015 Voter turnout can be defined in percent different ways. Elections Canada 90 calculates turnout rate as the proportion of the total population 85 eligible to vote (on the electoral list) that has cast a vote. However, 80 information on the population 75 registered to vote is not available in the LFS. Hence, the turnout rate 70 is calculated as the proportion of Canadian citizens aged 18 years and 65 above who stated that they voted in 60 the election. Studies dealing with voting 55 participation have found that voting 50 rates derived from surveys are 1867 1882 1900 1917 1930 1949 1962 1972 1984 2000 2011 typically higher than the official turnout rates, and the LFS is no Source: Elections Canada, 1867 to 2015. exception. Existing research has shown that one reason for this result is that non-voters are less likely to people did when they were the the question is investigated using answer survey questions on voting.8 same age, a phenomenon referred data from the Labour Force Survey In other words, there is likely a to as a generational effect.5 Lack (LFS). In both 2011 and 2015, strong association between survey of interest in politics, lack of trust a few questions on voting were non-response and voting behaviour. and confidence in institutions, included as a supplement to the LFS changing perceptions of government in the month following the federal The correlation between non- relevance, and little influence of election (see Data sources, methods response and non-participation youth on government policy changes and definitions). Respondents who likely explains some—but not all— are some of the hypotheses put were eligible to vote were asked of the difference in turnout rates forward to explain the decline in whether they voted in the federal between survey data and the official 9 voting among young Canadians election, and those who did not results from Elections Canada. This during the 1990s.6 Furthermore, vote were asked about their reasons suggests that there are other factors 10,11 it can be argued that the overall for not voting.7 The large sample at play. decline would have been larger had it size of the LFS, together with the In the sections that follow, the not been for notable increases in the wide range of socio-demographic results from the LFS are used proportion of individuals with higher information available in the survey, to discuss differences in voting levels of educational attainment, provides a good opportunity to participation between groups of and a growing proportion of older relate voting to various individual Canadian citizens. Differences from people—two groups that are characteristics and to examine which the previous federal election are also typically more likely to vote. groups had the largest increase examined. The difference in voting in their turnout rate. This study The recent increase in voter turnout rates as calculated from the LFS discusses factors associated with between the 2011 and 2015 federal and as posted by Elections Canada voting in the 2015 election, as well elections represented a break was almost the same in both 2011 as the population groups that drove from the declines of the 1990s and and 2015—70.0% versus 61.1% in the increase between the 2011 and 2000s. Which groups contributed 2011, and 77.0% versus 68.3% in 2015 elections. to the sudden reversal in electoral 2015, with both sources reporting a participation rates? In this study, 7 percentage point increase in voting rates between 2011 and 2015.12 2 / Insights on Canadian Society October 2016 — Statistics Canada Understanding the increase in voting rates between the 2011 and 2015 federal elections Younger people in all educational categories Chart 2 increased their voting rates Voting rates in federal elections by age group, 2011 and 2015 Older people are more likely to percent vote compared with their younger 100 counterparts. According to the LFS, 90 the turnout rate was 67% among 80 people aged 18 to 24 in 2015, and it 70 was marginally higher among the 25- to 34-year-olds, at 70%.
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