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Case Study: Analysis of the Impact on Travel Times to Heathrow and Gatwick As a Result of Crossrail

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Case Study: Analysis of the impact on travel times to Heathrow and Gatwick as a result of Crossrail Airports and airlines within Britain are struggling to operate efficiently and effectively given the constraints of their existing infrastructure. Heathrow Airport is full having reached its maximum capacity in 2010 and in 2013 Gatwick Airport frequently operated at more than 85% of its maximum capacity and was also full during peak-times. In November 2014 the Airports Commission published for consultation its assessment of proposals for additional runway capacity at Heathrow and Gatwick airports. These proposals include: an extension of the existing northern runway to the west at Heathrow Airport (proposed by Heathrow Hub Ltd) a new full length runway to the north west of the current northern runway at Heathrow Airport a new runway south of, and parallel to, the current runway at Gatwick Airport These additional runways aim to increase capacity at each airport, improving airline operations within them. Another item high on the airport agenda is the improvement of airport accessibility. This can be targeted through the improvement of public transport links which should reduce current travel times to airports. Efficient public transport should also discourage travelling to airports by car, which is beneficial as high carbon emissions are associated with car use. The carbon emissions released by cars and taxis is over 10 times larger than those released by public transport. In 2012 the Department for Transport published statistics comparing the yearly carbon dioxide emissions from different modes of transport: cars and taxis released 63.7 Mtn of CO2 in 2012, whereas buses, coaches and trains combined released only 6 Mtn. Therefore, improving public transport has the potential to reduce carbon emissions. One transport system that has the potential to improve accessibility to and from Heathrow Airport is Crossrail. Crossrail is a new rail network that will extend across London with services due to begin in 2019. The western section of the Crossrail route will run from Paddington in west London to Heathrow Airport and Reading. The service will provide four trains per hour to Heathrow, on top of the current Heathrow Express service. In addition to this, trains will be longer, providing additional capacity and a reduction in overcrowding. Moreover, once Crossrail is fully operational, there will be annual savings of approximately 70k to 225k tonnes of CO2, predominantly due to the displacement of car journeys, as well as replacement of diesel trains on the existing network. The aim of this study is to analyse how Crossrail, once fully operational, will impact travel times to Heathrow Airport and Gatwick Airport. This study was conducted using Visography TRACC, a multi-modal accessibility planning tool. This software can be used to quickly and accurately calculate travel time using a multitude of public transport and road travel modes to give accurate journey times from many origins to many destinations in one calculation. The calculation engine and advanced database design are able to fully utilise national datasets within a calculation, allowing analysis of results across the whole country. TRACC also provides the ability to focus on specific geographical areas, in this case areas surrounding Heathrow Airport and Gatwick Airport. Visography TRACC covers a full range of transport modes such as walking, cycling, driving and public transport, and allows a mixture of these to be used within a calculation. For this study the first step of the travel time analysis was to source the public transport timetable data. The public transport modes used in this study included: bus, coach, National Rail, Light Rail, tube and tram, which were sourced from Basemap’s latest NPTDR dataset (January 2015). For the road network Meridian 2, a vector map dataset, was imported. This is an Ordnance Survey OpenData product, allowing walking access throughout the network and between various stops to be included if an interchange was required. After importing the public transport and road network data, the origins were created. Origins are the point at which a calculation would start, which could be created from postcode centroids, addresses, or as a standardised grid across an area. For this study a 350m standardised grid was selected as it was felt that this would give enough points to provide an accurate travel time analysis. The grid consisted of over 1 million origin points, extending across the Midlands, the whole of the south of England and throughout Wales, with each origin exactly a 350m distance from one another. A smaller grid would have increased accuracy but would also have increased calculation times. Heathrow Airport was selected as one of the destinations in this study because Crossrail will run directly into Heathrow Airport, thus potentially improving accessibility. As mentioned previously, Heathrow Airport is looking to increase capacity with the construction of a new runway, therefore it would be beneficial to assess whether travel times to Heathrow Airport improve, and how many people this may affect. Heathrow Terminals 1, 2 and 3 were considered as one destination point due to their close proximity to one another. Terminals 4 and 5 were considered separately as travel times and travel routes would differ. Gatwick Airport was selected for comparative purposes, looking at the North and South terminals separately. Despite Crossrail not directly reaching Gatwick Airport, it would be worth assessing whether it improves accessibility at all, given the increased capacity that will arise with the new runway. These destinations were plotted using the draw tool within Visography TRACC at the approximate terminal entrance points. Using the data described above, Visography TRACC was used to conduct an analysis measuring the journey time from each origin point to all destinations on a Tuesday between 10am and 2pm, showing current accessibility to Heathrow Airport and Gatwick Airport. After analysing travel times before Crossrail, Visography TRACC was then used to create the Crossrail route and to model its services, in order to see the impact of Crossrail on travel times to both airports. Crossrail provided station to station transit times which were entered as a brand new rail service into TRACC along with the various routes, including the spur off to Heathrow. As the timetable for Crossrail is not yet available, a frequency of four trains an hour was assumed during the peak times and two an hour during the off peak as highlighted on the Crossrail website. After the creation of the new route, this was then run through TRACC using the same time period (Tuesday 10 am to 2pm). The map above shows travel times to both airports using 6 time bands of 20 minute intervals. This represents the total travel time taking into account any walking time, interchanges between stops and time spent on public transport. Central London, west London and areas surrounding Slough have the shortest travel times to an airport, most likely Heathrow, of up to 20 minutes. Similarly, areas north of Horsham and Crawley have short travel times to an airport of up to 20 minutes, which is most likely going to be Gatwick. The latest Census data from 2011 was imported into TRACC to produce demographic data reports, assessing the total population impacted by Crossrail: Terminal Total Journey Total Total Additional % Change in Time Population Population Population Population Before After Heathrow T1, T2, T3 30 minutes 240,261 263,776 23,515 9.8 60 minutes 3,527,834 3,624,989 97,155 2.8 90 minutes 9,036,534 9,164,589 128,055 1.4 120 minutes 13,740,065 13,751,735 11,670 0.1 Heathrow T4 30 minutes 229,911 265,906 35,995 15.7 60 minutes 2,788,401 2,933,550 145,149 5.2 90 minutes 8,143,252 8,273,792 130,540 1.6 120 minutes 12,658,716 12,694,379 35,663 0.3 Heathrow T5 30 minutes 207,388 208,954 1,566 0.8 60 minutes 2,808,362 2,829,417 21,054 0.7 90 minutes 8,543,897 8,642,864 98,967 1.2 120 minutes 13,207,212 13,211,877 4,666 0 Gatwick North 30 minutes 28,472 28,472 0 0 60 minutes 725,208 725,208 0 0 90 minutes 5,848,755 5,854,989 6,235 0.1 120 minutes 11,305,847 11,315,852 10,005 0.1 Gatwick South 30 minutes 81,819 81,819 0 0 60 minutes 1,471,406 1,471,406 0 0 90 minutes 7,312,703 7,323,591 10,888 0.1 120 minutes 12,311,728 12,338,419 26,691 0.2 The table above shows that once Crossrail is fully operational, Heathrow Terminals 1-3 and 4 will experience the greatest improvements in accessibility, particularly within a 30 minute period (9.8% and 15.7% increase respectively). This is because there are Crossrail stops at Heathrow Terminals 1-3 and 4, so people can access these terminals directly without having to interchange in the Heathrow area. Terminal 5 does experience an increase in the population that can reach it within 30 minutes by 0.8%, but nowhere near to the same extent that as Terminals 1- 4. This is because there is not going to be a Crossrail stop there, so people will have to interchange on to the Piccadilly line to reach Terminal 5. This interchange will have been considered in the calculation. Nevertheless, the overall improvements in travel times are particularly relevant given the proposals for additional runway capacity at Heathrow. TRACC has shown that Gatwick is unlikely to experience any improvement in accessibility within the 30 and 60 minute time bands, which is because the Crossrail route does not spur off towards Gatwick.
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