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Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GLEPHA)

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Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GLEPHA) Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GLEPHA) CMP: | 483 Target: | 560 (16%) Target Period: 12 months BUY August 17, 2020 Subdued topline; margin expansion to the fore… Revenues stayed flattish growing just 0.9% YoY to | 2345 crore due to subdued growth of 1.6% in US to | 743 crore, 3.7% growth in domestic sales to | 780 crore. Europe business grew 12.8% YoY to | 274 crore. RoW markets de-grew 18.1% YoY to 212 crore. EBITDA margins improved 567 bps YoY to 20.4% mainly due to lower other expenditure. EBITDA grew Particulars 39.8% YoY to | 478 crore. Adjusted PAT grew 106.9% YoY to | 226 crore. P articular Am ount Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA was due to higher other income. Exceptional items in Market Capitalisation | 13615 crore Q1FY21 were | 28 crore on gain arising from sale of Vwash brand to HUL. Debt (FY20) | 4868 crore Result Update Result Cash & equivalent (FY20) | 1111 crore US growth dependent on new launches E V | 17371 crore 52 week H/L (|) 573/168 US generics comprise ~30% of total revenues. So far, the company has E quity capital | 28.2 crore Face value | 1 received approval for 164 ANDAs while another 44 are pending approval, of which 24 are Para IV applications. However, Glenmark’s derma portfolio is Key Highlights facing stiff pricing pressure in the US. Going ahead, traction from the newly commissioned US based Monroe facility will be the key determinant besides Q1FY21 revenues remained flattish sustained product launches. We expect the US to grow at 5.2% CAGR in due to subdued US growth amid FY20-22E to | 3479 crore on the back of new launches. stoppage of Ranitidine and sharp decline in dermatology portfolio. Targeting specific therapies in IPM EBITDA margins improved 567 bps YoY to 20.4% mainly due to lower Glenmark is ranked fourteenth in domestic formulations with a market share other expenditure of 2.2%. It is a market leader in dermatology and improving its presence in respiratory, CVS, anti-infectives and anti-diabetics, in particular. The Proposed unlocking of innovation company has also forayed into consumer health segment focusing on Rx- business, divestment of non-core OTC switch products (~| 150 crore) led by two brands, Candid and Scalpe+. business to reduce debt are key We expect India sales to grow at 10.8% CAGR in FY20-22E to | 3928 crore. monitorables Valuation & Outlook Upgrade from HOLD to BUY Despite facing Covid-related challenges in the first half of Q1FY21, the Research Analyst company posted a stable topline while profitability was higher mainly on Retail Equity Research Equity Retail account of reduced travel & promotional spend. While domestic, Europe Siddhant Khandekar sales grew 3.7%, 12.8%, respectively, US business remained subdued due [email protected] – to stoppage of Ranitidine and sharp decline in dermatology portfolio. Mitesh Shah, CFA Operationally, barring the US, other geographies are, more or less, looking [email protected] stable led by domestic formulations. Going ahead, the management expects margins to improve due to cost rationalisation measures and decline in R&D Sudarshan Agarwal [email protected] expenses as percentage of sales. Glenmark had earlier shelved API monetisation plan and plans to reduce debt through internal accruals, pipeline monetisation (ICHNOS) and divestment of non-core business. On Securities ICICI the capex front, although things are looking a bit strained, the management expects some moderation. We believe reduction of debt, improvement in free cash flow and margins are key events to watch. We arrive at our target price of | 560 based on 14x FY22E EPS of | 39.9. Key Financial Summary (| Crore) F Y19 F Y20 F Y21E F Y22E CAGR (FY20-22E) % R evenues 9865.5 10641.0 11052.1 12326.1 7.6 E B ITDA 1585.8 1698.1 2090.3 2422.2 19.4 E B ITDA margins (% ) 16.1 16.0 18.9 19.7 Adjusted PAT 757.8 743.1 924.3 1124.7 23.0 E P S (|) 26.9 26.4 32.8 39.9 P E (x) 14.7 17.5 14.3 12.1 E V to E B ITDA (x) 10.4 10.2 8.0 6.7 R oNW (% ) 13.5 12.2 13.3 14.0 R oC E (% ) 15.3 12.7 13.8 14.9 Source: ICICI Direct Research; Company Result Update | Glenmark Pharmaceuticals ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Q1FY21 Q1FY20 Q4FY20 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Comments Muted growth reported in most key geographies amid Covid impact Revenue 2,344.8 2,322.9 2,767.5 0.9 -15.3 and currency headwinds Raw Material Expenses 808.4 810.1 976.1 -0.2 -17.2 Employee Expenses 509.6 486.7 524.2 4.7 -2.8 Other Expenditure 548.7 684.2 801.5 -19.8 -31.5 YoY decline amid lower on ground activities and cost rationalisation EBITDA 478.1 341.9 465.7 39.8 2.7 YoY improvement mainly due to lower fixed cost amid Covid and cost EBITDA (%) 20.4 14.7 16.8 567 bps 356 bps rationalisation Interest 93.7 93.0 98.5 0.8 -4.8 Depreciation 113.2 90.7 126.3 24.8 -10.3 YoY increase mainly due to commissioning of Monroe facility Other Income 58.5 1.7 44.1 3,405.9 32.5 Included consideration received from sale of Vwash brand PBT before EO & Forex 329.6 159.8 285.1 106.2 15.6 Less: EO & Forex -28.0 0.0 -32.9 NA -14.9 PBT 357.6 159.8 318.0 123.7 12.5 Tax 103.6 50.6 97.7 104.9 6.1 PAT before MI 254.0 109.3 220.3 132.5 15.3 Adj. Net Profit 226.1 109.3 187.4 106.9 20.6 Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA mainly due to higher other income Key Metrics Despite lower base, muted YoY growth mainly due to stoppage of US 742.6 730.9 761.9 1.6 -2.5 Ranitidine and sharp decline in dermatology portfolio, especially Mupirocin Constant currency growth was 10% YoY mainly due to strong growth Europe 273.9 242.9 411.6 12.8 -33.5 in Western European business India 779.9 752.2 764.8 3.7 2.0 Slow growth mainly due to Covid-19 impact and sale of Vwash brand Latin America 65.8 81.1 176.9 -18.9 -62.8 Sharp decline mainly due to Covid-19 impact and currency headwinds RoW markets 212.0 258.7 336.5 -18.1 -37.0 Sharp decline mainly due to Covid-19 impact and currency headwinds Muted growth mainly due to higher captive consumption towards API 234.8 230.6 261.4 1.8 -10.2 Fabiparivir (used for Covid) Source: ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in Estimates FY21E FY22E (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Revenue 11,358.5 11,052.1 -2.7 12,653.6 12,326.1 -2.6 EBITDA 1,850.9 2,090.3 12.9 2,304.8 2,422.2 5.1 EBITDA Margin (%) 16.3 18.9 262 bps 18.2 19.7 144 bps Improved mainly due to better than expected cost rationalisation PAT 703.6 952.3 35.3 1,030.6 1,124.7 9.1 Improved mainly in sync with EBITDA EPS (|) 25.0 33.8 35.3 36.6 39.9 9.1 Source: ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Change in Estimates Current Earlier (| crore) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E US 3,139.3 3,140.4 3,224.6 3,478.5 3,300.9 3,564.9 Europe 1,120.7 1,248.4 1,337.3 1,525.2 1,370.8 1,603.5 India 2,777.0 3,202.2 3,461.1 3,928.1 3,433.4 3,896.2 Latin America 418.0 535.6 474.8 516.3 564.6 613.9 Decline mainly due to currency headwinds RoW markets 1,275.9 1,285.4 1,271.6 1,462.0 1,370.7 1,539.0 Decline mainly due to currency headwinds API 949.3 1,023.9 1,070.0 1,165.7 1,087.4 1,179.0 Source: ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Glenmark Pharmaceuticals ICICI Direct Research Conference Call Highlights Covid-19 – Production was impacted in March/April, mid-May stabilised India – Consumer care down 15% YoY (ex-VWash) in Q1FY21. Q1FY21 – | 31.1 crore Decline in sales due to change in consumer behaviour, disruption in supplies especially modern trade and consumer stockists (a) As per secondary sales (IQVIA), Candid Powder has increased its market share from 59% to 67% (from Q1FY20 to Q1FY21) with a 30% value growth (b) Scalpe Plus has also increased its market share from 22.6% (Q1FY20) to 25.2% in Q1FY21 (c) Ex-Vwash, annual run rate of consumer care is ~| 140- 150 crore per year As per IQVIA June 20, the company’s anti-diabetic Remogliflozin etabonate (Remogliflozin) has a market share of 31.4% in the SGLT2 segment R&D – Q1FY21: | 254 crore (10.8% of sales) FY21 R&D to be ~11%; Innovation R&D: 6%, Generic R&D: 4-5% Net debt as of Q1FY21 was at | 4851 crore; gross debt: | 3602 crore; net cash: | 1249 crore. | 150 crore constant currency debt reduction QoQ. The company will continue to reduce debt through divestment of non-core business & internal accruals Asset addition/capex in Q1FY21 - | 130 crore.
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