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The Potential for an Assad Statelet in Syria
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSAD STATELET IN SYRIA Nicholas A. Heras THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSAD STATELET IN SYRIA Nicholas A. Heras policy focus 132 | december 2013 the washington institute for near east policy www.washingtoninstitute.org The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the author and not necessar- ily those of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. MAPS Fig. 1 based on map designed by W.D. Langeraar of Michael Moran & Associates that incorporates data from National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP- WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, and iPC. Figs. 2, 3, and 4: detail from The Tourist Atlas of Syria, Syria Ministry of Tourism, Directorate of Tourist Relations, Damascus. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publica- tion may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2013 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050 Washington, DC 20036 Cover: Digitally rendered montage incorporating an interior photo of the tomb of Hafez al-Assad and a partial view of the wheel tapestry found in the Sheikh Daher Shrine—a 500-year-old Alawite place of worship situated in an ancient grove of wild oak; both are situated in al-Qurdaha, Syria. Photographs by Andrew Tabler/TWI; design and montage by 1000colors. -
Policy Notes for the Trump Notes Administration the Washington Institute for Near East Policy ■ 2018 ■ Pn55
TRANSITION 2017 POLICYPOLICY NOTES FOR THE TRUMP NOTES ADMINISTRATION THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ 2018 ■ PN55 TUNISIAN FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA AARON Y. ZELIN Tunisia should really open its embassy in Raqqa, not Damascus. That’s where its people are. —ABU KHALED, AN ISLAMIC STATE SPY1 THE PAST FEW YEARS have seen rising interest in foreign fighting as a general phenomenon and in fighters joining jihadist groups in particular. Tunisians figure disproportionately among the foreign jihadist cohort, yet their ubiquity is somewhat confounding. Why Tunisians? This study aims to bring clarity to this question by examining Tunisia’s foreign fighter networks mobilized to Syria and Iraq since 2011, when insurgencies shook those two countries amid the broader Arab Spring uprisings. ©2018 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ NO. 30 ■ JANUARY 2017 AARON Y. ZELIN Along with seeking to determine what motivated Evolution of Tunisian Participation these individuals, it endeavors to reconcile estimated in the Iraq Jihad numbers of Tunisians who actually traveled, who were killed in theater, and who returned home. The find- Although the involvement of Tunisians in foreign jihad ings are based on a wide range of sources in multiple campaigns predates the 2003 Iraq war, that conflict languages as well as data sets created by the author inspired a new generation of recruits whose effects since 2011. Another way of framing the discussion will lasted into the aftermath of the Tunisian revolution. center on Tunisians who participated in the jihad fol- These individuals fought in groups such as Abu Musab lowing the 2003 U.S. -
Hama Governorate, April 2018 OVERALL FINDINGS1
Hama Governorate, April 2018 Humanitarian Situation Overview in Syria (HSOS) OVERALL FINDINGS1 Coverage Hama governorate, located on the banks of the Orontes River, is positioned to the south of Idleb governorate and the north of Homs governorate. Offensives against the group known as the so-called Ziyara Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) throughout mid-2017 and into early 2018 have resulted in ALEPPO large-scale displacement, both within and out of the governorate to neighbouring Idleb. In April, conflict in Northern Hama governorate between opposition groups, ISIL, and government forces intensified. As a IDLEB result of prolonged conflict,33 of the 82 assessed communities estimated that less than 50% of pre-conflict Shat- populations remained. Additionally, Key Informants (KIs) in 24 of the assessed communities reported that ha further pre-conflict populations left their communities in April, primarily due to an escalation in conflict. Madiq Castle However, Mahruseh and Ankawi communities both experienced spontaneous IDP returns, approximately Hamra 208 in total2. Additionally, Mahruseh community also experienced approximately 67 spontaneous refugee returnees from Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon in April. Please see the IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative As-SuqaylabiyahKarnaz Kafr Zeita (ISMI) April 2018 monthly report for further analysis. Suran Tell Salhib In 6 of the assessed communities, all in Hama and As-Suqaylabiyah districts, KIs estimated that between Muhradah 51-100% of the buildings in their communities were damaged. Additionally, seven communities reported that there was no electricity source available. In terms of water, 30 of the assessed communities reported Jeb Ramleh having an insufficient amount of water to meet household needs. -
Operation Inherent Resolve
Lead Inspector General for Overseas Contingency Operations OPERATION INHERENT RESOLVE DoD DoS USAID OFFICE OF OFFICE OF OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL INSPECTOR GENERAL INSPECTOR GENERAL Quarterly Report and Biannual Report to the United States Congress September 30, 2015 LEAD INSPECTOR GENERAL MISSION The Lead Inspector General for Overseas Contingency Operations will coordinate among the Inspectors General specified under the law to: • develop a joint strategic plan to conduct comprehensive oversight over all aspects of the contingency operation • ensure independent and effective oversight of all programs and operations of the federal government in support of the contingency operation through either joint or individual audits, inspections, and investigations • promote economy, efficiency, and effectiveness and prevent, detect, and deter fraud, waste, and abuse • perform analyses to ascertain the accuracy of information provided by federal agencies relating to obligations and expenditures, costs of programs and projects, accountability of funds, and the award and execution of major contracts, grants, and agreements • report quarterly and biannually to the Congress on the contingency operation and activities of the Lead Inspector General (Pursuant to section 8L of the Inspector General Act of 1978, as amended) FOREWORD We are pleased to submit our combined Lead Inspector General (Lead IG) biannual and quarterly report to Congress on Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR). This is our third quarterly report on the overseas contingency operation (OCO), discharging our individual and collective agency oversight responsibilities pursuant to section 8L of the Inspector General Act of 1978, as amended. The OCO is dedicated to countering the terrorist threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq, Syria, the region, and the broader international community. -
Health Cluster Bulletin
HEALTH CLUSTER BULLETIN April 2020 Fig.: Disinfection of an IDP camp as a preventive measure to ongoing COVID-19 Turkey Cross Border Pandemic Crisis (Source: UOSSM newsletter April 2020) Emergency type: complex emergency Reporting period: 01.04.2020 to30.04.2020 12 MILLION* 2.8 MILLION 3.7 MILLION 13**ATTACKS PEOPLE IN NEED OF HEALTH PIN IN SYRIAN REFUGGES AGAINST HEALTH CARE HEALTH ASSISTANCE NWS HNO 2020 IN TURKEY (**JAN - APR 2020) (A* figures are for the Whole of Syria HNO 2020 (All figures are for the Whole of Syria) HIGHLIGHTS • During April, 135,000 people who were displaced 129 HEALTH CLUSTER MEMBERS since December went back to areas in Idleb and 38 IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS REPORTING 1 western Aleppo governorates from which they MEDICINES DELIVERED TREATMENT COURSES FOR COMMON were displaced. This includes some 114,000 people 281,310 DISEASES who returned to their areas of origin and some FUNCTIONAL HEALTH FACILITIES HERAMS 21,000 IDPs who returned to their areas of origin, FUNCTIONING FIXED PRIMARY HEALTH forcing partners to re-establish health services in 141 CARE FACILITIES some cases with limited human resources. 59 FUNCTIONING HOSPITALS • World Health Day (7 April 2020) was the day to 72 MOBILE CLINICS celebrate the work of nurses and midwives and HEALTH SERVICES2 remind world leaders of the critical role they play 750,416 CONSULTATIONS in keeping the world healthy. Nurses and other DELIVERIES ASSISTED BY A SKILLED health workers are at the forefront of COVID-19 10,127 ATTENDANT response - providing high quality, respectful 8,530 REFERRALS treatment and care. Quite simply, without nurses, 822,930 MEDICAL PROCEDURES there would be no response. -
September 2016
www.rbs0.com/syria37.pdf 1 Oct 2016 Page 1 of 234 Syria & Iraq: September 2016 Copyright 2016 by Ronald B. Standler No copyright claimed for quotations. No copyright claimed for works of the U.S. Government. Table of Contents 1. Chemical Weapons U.N. Security Council begins to ask who used chemical weapons in Syria? ISIL used mustard in Iraq (11 Aug 2015) 2. Syria United Nations Diverted from Syria death toll in Syria now over 301,000 (30 Sep) Free Syrian Army is Leaderless since June 2015 Turkey is an ally from Hell U.S. troops in Syria Recognition that Assad is Winning the Civil War Peace Negotiations for Syria Future of Assad must be decided by Syrians Planning for Peace Negotiations in Geneva New Russia/USA Agreements (9 Sep) U.N. Security Council meeting (21 Sep) Syrian speech to U.N. General Assembly (24 Sep) more meetings and negotiations 22-30 Sep 2016 Friends of Syria meeting in London (7 Sep) ISSG meetings (20, 22 Sep 2016) occasional reports of violations of the Cessation of Hostilities agreement proposed 48-hour ceasefires in Aleppo siege of Aleppo (1-12 Sep} Violations of new agreements in Syria (12-19 Sep) continuing civil war in Syria (20-30 Sep) bombing hospitals in Syria surrender of Moadamiyeh U.N. Reports war crimes prosecution? 3. Iraq Atrocities in Iraq No Criminal Prosecution of Iraqi Army Officers No Prosecution for Fall of Mosul No Prosecution for Rout at Ramadi No Criminal Prosecution for Employing "Ghost Soldiers" www.rbs0.com/syria37.pdf 1 Oct 2016 Page 2 of 234 Iraq is a failed nation U.S. -
Health Cluster Bulletin, May 2018 Pdf, 1.17Mb
HEALTH CLUSTER BULLETIN Gaziantep, May 2018 A man inspects a damaged hospital after air strikes in Eastern Ghouta. Source: SRD Turkey Cross Border Emergency type: complex emergency Reporting period: 01.05.2018 to 31.05.2018 11.3 MILLION 6.6 MILLION 3.58 MILLION 111 ATTACKS IN NEED OF INTERNALLY SYRIAN REFUGEES AGAINST HEALTH CARE HEALTH ASSISTANCE DISPLACED IN TURKEY (JAN-MAY 2018) (All figures are for the Whole of Syria) HIGHLIGHTS HEALTH CLUSTER Mentor Initiative treated 33,000 cases of 96 HEALTH PARTNERS & OBSERVERS Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and 52 cases of 1 Visceral Leishmaniasis in 2017 through 135 MEDICINES DELIVERED health facilities throughout Syria. TREATMENT COURSES FOR COMMON 369,170 DISEASES The Health Cluster’s main finds from multi- FUNCTIONAL HEALTH FACILITIES sectoral Rapid Needs Assessment which FUNCTIONING FIXED PRIMARY covered 180 communities (out of 220) from 166 HEALTH CARE FACILITIES seven sub-districts in Afrin from 3 to 8 May indicates limited availability of health facilities 82 FUNCTIONING HOSPITALS and medical staff, lack of transportation and 70 MOBILE CLINICS the lack of medicines and specialized services. HEALTH SERVICES The medical referral mechanism implemented 1 M CONSULTATIONS in Idleb governorate includes 48 facilities and 10,210 DELIVERIES ASSISTED BY A SKILLED 14 NGO partners that will be fully operational ATTENDANT as a network by end of August. The network, 8,342 REFERRALS which also includes 9 secondary health care VACCINATION facilities, in total serves a catchment 2 population of 920,000 people. In May 2018, 29,646 CHILDREN AGED ˂5 VACCINATED these facilities produced 1,469 referrals. DISEASE SURVEILLANCE In northern Syria as of end of May, there are 495 SENTINEL SITES REPORTING OUT OF 77 health facilities that are providing MHPSS A TOTAL OF 500 services, including the active mhGAP doctors FUNDING $US3 who are providing mental health 63 RECEIVED 14.3% 85.7% GAP consultations. -
The Turkish War on Afrin Jeopardizes Progress Made Since the Liberation of Raqqa April 2018
Viewpoints No. 125 The Turkish War on Afrin Jeopardizes Progress Made Since the Liberation of Raqqa April 2018 Amy Austin Holmes Middle East Fellow Wilson Center Turkey’s assault on Afrin represents a three-fold threat to the civilian population, the model of local self-governance, and the campaign to defeat the Islamic State. None of this is in the interest of the United States. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ The Turkish operation in Afrin is not just another battle in a small corner of Syria, but represents a new stage in the Syrian civil war and anti-ISIS campaign. President Erdoğan’s two-month battle to capture Afrin signals that Turkey will no longer act through proxies, but is willing to intervene directly on Syrian territory to crush the Kurdish YPG forces and the experiment in self-rule they are defending.i Emboldened after claiming victory in Afrin, and enabled by Russia, Erdoğan is threatening further incursions into Syria and Iraq. Erdoğan has demanded that American troops withdraw from Manbij, so that he can attack the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who are stationed in the area, and who have been our most reliable partners in the anti-ISIS coalition. If Erdoğan is not deterred, much of the progress made since the liberation of Raqqa could be in jeopardy. The Afrin intervention has already displaced at least 150,000 people. Many of them are Kurds, Yezidis, or Christians who established local government councils in the absence of the regime over the past five years. Even if imperfect, the self-administration is an embryonic form of democracy that includes women and minorities while promoting religious tolerance and linguistic diversity. -
Syrie : Situation De La Population Yézidie Dans La Région D'afrin
Syrie : situation de la population yézidie dans la région d’Afrin Recherche rapide de l’analyse-pays Berne, le 9 mai 2018 Impressum Editeur Organisation suisse d’aide aux réfugiés OSAR Case postale, 3001 Berne Tél. 031 370 75 75 Fax 031 370 75 00 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: www.osar.ch CCP dons: 10-10000-5 Versions Allemand et français COPYRIGHT © 2018 Organisation suisse d’aide aux réfugiés OSAR, Berne Copies et impressions autorisées sous réserve de la mention de la source. 1 Introduction Le présent document a été rédigé par l’analyse-pays de l’Organisation suisse d’aide aux ré- fugiés (OSAR) à la suite d’une demande qui lui a été adressée. Il se penche sur la question suivante : 1. Quelle est la situation actuelle des Yézidi-e-s dans la région d’Afrin ? Pour répondre à cette question, l’analyse-pays de l’OSAR s’est fondée sur des sources ac- cessibles publiquement et disponibles dans les délais impartis (recherche rapide) ainsi que sur des renseignements d’expert-e-s. 2 Situation de la population yézidie dans la région d’Afrin De 20’000 à 30’000 Yézidi-e-s dans la région d'Afrin. Selon un rapport encore à paraître de la Société pour les peuples menacés (SPM, 2018), quelque 20 000 à 30 000 Yézidis vivent dans la région d'Afrin. Depuis mars 2018, Afrin placée sous le contrôle de la Turquie et des groupes armés alliés à la Turquie. Le 20 janvier 2018, la Turquie a lancé une offensive militaire pour prendre le contrôle du district d'Afrin dans la province d'Alep. -
Operation Euphrates Shield: Implementation and Lessons Learned Lessons and Implementation Shield: Euphrates Operation
REPORT REPORT OPERATION EUPHRATES SHIELD: IMPLEMENTATION OPERATION AND LESSONS LEARNED EUPHRATES MURAT YEŞILTAŞ, MERVE SEREN, NECDET ÖZÇELIK The report presents a one-year assessment of the Operation Eu- SHIELD phrates Shield (OES) launched on August 24, 2016 and concluded on March 31, 2017 and examines Turkey’s future road map against the backdrop of the developments in Syria. IMPLEMENTATION AND In the first section, the report analyzes the security environment that paved the way for OES. In the second section, it scrutinizes the mili- tary and tactical dimensions and the course of the operation, while LESSONS LEARNED in the third section, it concentrates on Turkey’s efforts to establish stability in the territories cleansed of DAESH during and after OES. In the fourth section, the report investigates military and political MURAT YEŞILTAŞ, MERVE SEREN, NECDET ÖZÇELIK lessons that can be learned from OES, while in the fifth section, it draws attention to challenges to Turkey’s strategic preferences and alternatives - particularly in the north of Syria - by concentrating on the course of events after OES. OPERATION EUPHRATES SHIELD: IMPLEMENTATION AND LESSONS LEARNED LESSONS AND IMPLEMENTATION SHIELD: EUPHRATES OPERATION ANKARA • ISTANBUL • WASHINGTON D.C. • KAHIRE OPERATION EUPHRATES SHIELD IMPLEMENTATION AND LESSONS LEARNED COPYRIGHT © 2017 by SETA All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, without permission in writing from the publishers. SETA Publications 97 ISBN: 978-975-2459-39-7 Layout: Erkan Söğüt Print: Turkuvaz Haberleşme ve Yayıncılık A.Ş., İstanbul SETA | FOUNDATION FOR POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Nenehatun Caddesi No: 66 GOP Çankaya 06700 Ankara TURKEY Tel: +90 312.551 21 00 | Fax :+90 312.551 21 90 www.setav.org | [email protected] | @setavakfi SETA | İstanbul Defterdar Mh. -
People from Afrin District Are Estimated to Have Been Displaced by Escalating Violence Since 20 January 2018 and by the Shift In
AFRIN DISPLACEMENT Facts and Figures Last updated: 18 April 2018 Overview: 1 137,070 people from Afrin district are estimated to 150,000 have been displaced by escalating violence since 20 January 2018 people are and by the shift in control on 18 March 2018 estimated to remain in Afrin 90,250 30,000 15,000 district, including 50,000 in Afrin city. in Tall Refaat in Nabul & Zahraa in Kafr Naseh and Fafin IDP registration is progressing slowly, and all IDP numbers remain estimates. There is limited information on the humanitarian situation inside Afrin district. Key Concerns: FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT IS SEVERELY RESTRICTED. IDPs are currently not permitted to move to Aleppo city or to return to Afrin district. Some 2,000 IDPs were stuck for nine days at the crossing point between Burj Elqas and Kimar when trying to return to Afrin district. LACK OF ACCESS: The UN currently do not have access to Afrin district, and whilst some local partners are present in the district, they sometimes face movement restrictions at checkpoints. LACK OF FUNDING: The UN and partners in Syria require at least $73m to continue responding with life-saving assistance and protection services to those displaced from Afrin district. Additional funding is required for the response from Gaziantep. Humanitarian Assistance: The UN and partners are scaling-up the response to those affected by the Afrin crisis. [selected highlights as of 16 April] A total of 28,350 ready-to-eat food rations, 3,000 canned food parcels, 5,000 food FOOD rations, 31,200 litres of milk, and hot meals were provided to 20,000 people in the IDP sites. -
PDF | 345.15 KB | English Version
United Nations S/2021/319 Security Council Distr.: General 19 April 2021 English Original: Russian Letter dated 31 March 2021 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General I have the honour to transmit herewith information bulletins from the Russian Federation Ministry of Defence regarding the status of implementation of the memorandum on the creation of de-escalation areas in the Syrian Arab Republic for the period from 1 to 31 March 2021 (see annex). I should be grateful if you would have the present letter and its annex circulated as a document of the Security Council. (Signed) V. Nebenzia 21-05181 (E) 220421 260421 *2105181* S/2021/319 Annex to the letter dated 31 March 2021 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General Information bulletin from the Russian Federation Ministry of Defence regarding the status of implementation of the memorandum on the creation of de-escalation areas (1 March 2021) Observance of the ceasefire regime Monitoring groups have continued to monitor observance of the ceasefire regime as part of implementing the memorandum on the creation of de-escalation areas in the Syrian Arab Republic, signed by the Russian Federation, the Republic of Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran on 4 May 2017. By agreement between the Russian Federation and Turkey, a ceasefire regime came into effect in the Idlib de-escalation area at 0001 hours on 6 March 2020. The Russian representative office of the Russian and Turkish Joint Commission reviewing issues related to violations of the ceasefire regime has reported 29 incidents of gunfire (21 incidents according to Syrian data) in the following Governorates: 13 in Ladhiqiyah, 11 in Idlib, 3 in Hama and 2 in Aleppo.