Framework for Using and Updating Ecological Models to Inform Bushfire Management Planning

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Framework for Using and Updating Ecological Models to Inform Bushfire Management Planning Framework for Using and Updating Ecological Models to Inform Bushfire Management Planning Final report Policy and Planning Division, Forest, Fire and Regions Acknowledgements Simon Watson, Katie Taylor, Thu Phan (MER Unit), Lucas Bluff, Rob Poore, Mick Baker, Victor Hurley, Hayley Coviello, Rowhan Marshall, Luke Smith, Penny Orbell, Matt Chick, Mary Titcumb, Sarah Kelly, Frazer Wilson, Evelyn Chia (DELWP Risk and Evaluation teams), Finley Roberts, Andrew Blackett, Imogen Fraser (Forest and Fire Risk Assessment Unit), and other staff from Forest, Fire and Regions Division, Bioodiversity Division, Arthur Rylah Institute, University of Melbourne, Parks Victoria, Country Fire Authority and Department of Land, Water, Environment and Planning who attended workshops. Jim Radford kindly provided comments on an earlier draft of this document. Authors Libby Rumpff, Nevil Amos and Josephine MacHunter Other contributors Kelly, L., Regan, T.J., Walshe, T., Giljohan, K., Bennett, A., Clarke, M., Di Stefano, J., Haslem, A., Leonard, S., McCarthy, M., Muir, A. Sitters, H. York, A., Vesk, P. Photo credit Kohout, M. © The State of Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning 2019 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. You are free to re-use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit the State of Victoria as author. The licence does not apply to any images, photographs or branding, including the Victorian Coat of Arms, the Victorian Government logo and the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) logo. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ISBN 978-1-76077-890-3 (pdf/online/MS word) Disclaimer This publication may be of assistance to you, but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication. Accessibility If you would like to receive this publication in an alternative format, please telephone the DELWP Customer Service Centre on 136186, email [email protected], or via the National Relay Service on 133 677 www.relayservice.com.au. This document is also available on the internet at www.delwp.vic.gov.au. Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 2 Project Aims ..................................................................................................................................................... 2 The decision-making framework .................................................................................................................... 2 Why is the decision framework and FAME needed? ................................................................................... 2 Case study insights ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Key Outcomes .................................................................................................................................................. 3 Next steps ......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Future applications .......................................................................................................................................... 4 Glossary ........................................................................................................................................................... 5 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 Policy drivers ................................................................................................................................................... 6 Project aims, research questions and outputs ............................................................................................ 6 The decision framework.................................................................................................................................. 9 Approach .......................................................................................................................................................... 9 Case studies ................................................................................................................................................... 10 Fire Analysis Module for Ecological values (FAME) .................................................................................. 13 Purpose........................................................................................................................................................... 13 Key steps in FAME ........................................................................................................................................ 13 Overarching principles of the module ......................................................................................................... 14 Users of the module ...................................................................................................................................... 14 How was the module developed? ................................................................................................................ 14 Future refinements ........................................................................................................................................ 15 Discussion and Recommended Next Steps................................................................................................ 16 What worked .................................................................................................................................................. 16 Reviewing issues with data, performance measures and uncertainty .................................................... 17 Reviewing the decision framework .............................................................................................................. 24 References ..................................................................................................................................................... 28 Appendix A Output 1: Project Plan ............................................................................................................. 30 Appendix B Output 5: Conceptual framework ............................................................................................ 52 Appendix C Output 8: Process map ............................................................................................................ 68 Appendix D Output 7: Supporting documentation .................................................................................... 86 Appendix E Output 2,3,4: Gap analysis ..................................................................................................... 123 Final report 1 Executive Summary Effectively managing the risks of The decision-making framework fire to ecosystem resilience and We used a structured decision-making framework to threatened species is a core guide decision makers and stakeholders on how to better use ecological models and metrics to inform a commitment of Victoria’s Safer strategic planning process. Structured decision- Together policy. Through making describes both the process of deconstructing decisions into various common components, and the collaboration with Department of broad set of tools used, and is designed to aid Environment, Land, Water and logical and transparent decision-making. Planning, and its partner This approach was designed to facilitate the application of FAME, and to align with the current agencies, the project team have SBMP process, which also draws on the structured developed a decision-making decision-making framework. framework, including a Fire FAME brings together existing ecological data and models into a single platform to support SBMP Analysis Module for Ecological decisions. To ensure the module was tailored to values (FAME), to facilitate more user requirements, the module was developed in close collaboration with end users in DELWP Forest effective and transparent and Fire Regions risk and evaluation teams, the consideration of ecological Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting Unit and the Forest and Fire Assessment Unit. values in strategic fire FAME allows users to analyse and evaluate the management decisions. impact of different fire management strategies on ecological objectives, and automates documentation Project Aims of (i) data inputs, (ii) key decision points undertaken as part of the analyses and (iii) standard outputs. In BNHCRC Emergency Risk Project 1 (ERP1) we FAME is designed to provide transparency and aimed to develop a consolidated framework that consistency in analytical approaches and outputs. describes the development and application of ecological models (including for ecosystem Why is the decision framework and resilience and threatened species) to inform FAME needed? strategic bushfire management planning. Importantly, this project was focused on developing Collaboration with stakeholders identified constraints
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